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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wise thoughts on how the Tories would do in a snap general election from Keiran Pedley
It amazes me that people have such short memories. Theresa May was going to walk the 2017 General Election and then didn’t. Perhaps it will be different this time – Johnson will almost certainly run a better campaign it’s true. But perhaps not. Care needed.
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Stupid hot weather.
I agree with Mr. Pedley. We saw a 20 point lead vanish last time (admittedly with the most stupid campaign since Caligula declared war on Neptune) and things are very turbulent right now.
Moreover, under their current leaderships, they are completely untrustworthy. Corbyn is a mass of conflicting principles, and in any case he has effectively been taken over by a gang of Commies. ABDPJohnson would sell his own grandmother if he thought there was anything in it for him - let alone the rest of us who are being sold down the river for a few barrels of contaminated foodstuffs.
It is high time that they both split up properly and we had a proper realignment of our politics.
I think that this is the bit I have a problem with. I can certainly see the Tories losing seats to the Lib Dems in the SW and possibly London along with the loss of some seats to the SNP. Where I struggle is how that is consistent with Labour's vote share recovering. The Lib Dems are turbo charged by remainer Labour supporters defecting. How is that consistent with Labour's share recovering?
In 2017 both the main parties did spectacularly well with enough votes to win pretty much any other election decisively and all the minor parties were squeezed to death. Next time we may well see the opposite effect with the vote fragmenting. The question is which major party is most damaged by that. At the moment Labour looks nailed on and they will remain so until they finally get rid of Corbyn.
1. After passing a Brexit deal.
2. After a No Deal Brexit.
3. Before Brexit is delivered.
1 is a slam dunk for him but 2 and 3 are enormously risky. I give Corbyn a good chance of emerging as PM in either of those scenarios, with Johnson's chances being improved a little if it looks like the election has been forced upon him.
How that translates to a VoNC-initiated election is beyond me. I'd guess there would be a moderated reverse effect. Has any polling been done on that?
He also appears incapable of giving the same straight answer to the same question by different interviewers.
That will make the Great Grockle Exodus fun.....
The other thing to consider is that in Labour seats that are currently seen as non-marginal there could be a lot of churn because 2017 Labour voters don’t think their vote is as important. I think that may apply in one or two London seats. Hornsey and Wood Green springs to mind, maybe Hampstead and Kilburn, too.
Therefore 322 seats needed for Majority
Con currently 311 seats
Minus 20 seats leaves Con with 291 seats
Therefore, they would need to gain 31 seats from Labour.
None of those would come in Scotland.
Maybe a couple in Wales(?)
So they need to gain 30 English Labour seats.
Where??
Kensington, then, er...
To put it at its most brutal - what proportion of the population actually wants to vote for somebody like Corbyn - who is essentially a dim witted version of Johnson? 10% maybe? Far fewer than will want to vote Labour, although Brecon suggests even that firewall isn't what it was.
So I think in a lot of Labour's heartlands we will see very depressed turnout. That means both the potential for some great shocks and the potential for great Labour vote efficiency.
The LibDem vote jumped (from 3% to 12%) and Labour lost plenty of ground but in the end the Leaver vote split by more. The Tories need to squash the Brexit Party quite thoroughly to be confident of winning, and it's hard to see that happening without a No Deal that is generally seen (by Leavers, at least) to have worked out well.
No wonder she gets all those SCon tactical votes in East Dunbartonshire: she’s an absolute gift to the Tories.
Kensington
Canterbury
Stroud
Newcastle under Lyme
Gower
Chester
Lincoln
Barrow.
Crewe
Derby North
And there could be a few more where Labour are vulnerable due to Lib Dem seepage - Battersea and Bristol Norh West spring to mind.
However, that doesn't come close to 30. And that presupposes no Tory losses to Labour, which may be a bold assumption.
It's like being offered a choice between disembowellment and being boiled alive.
When Boris wins his majority it will all be over for the opposition. Yet they are sleep walking into this scenario. Similar to how 1983 changed the political landscape.
Not inevitable, yet.
My former party - Labour- is the wild card. There is no way on this planet that the Stalinists will allow Labour to run a clear campaign that is unequivocally remain, No Way. Regardless of what party may want or even vote for.
So we can expect that in such a campaign as Brexit rages Labour will keep trying to ignore it, and will continue to openly contradict themselves. What impact this has will depend on the metrics in each individual seat. In my own seat of Stockton South Dr Paul Williams has been out front for remain and a referendum since the get go, knowing that our election win in 2017 was pulled off by creating a coalition of switching progressive voters. Alternately In Sheffield Hallam Labour took the seat from the LibDems because voters pivoted away from Clegg and the coalition and were prepared to vite for literally anyone as an alternative...
So an election won't be smooth and UNS can stay in it's box. But my view remains that Johnson has a narrow window of opportunity where he can call an election as his last remaining play before being emancipated by MPs and can campaign against parliament on a "give me majority to deliver No Deal" platform.
It's a risk. A big risk. But is not going a bigger risk...?
I agree they won't take many, but every one they take is a steeper mountain to climb for the Tories.
None of the other seats you mention have even been priced up yet.
That's part of the general centrist malaise that's evident in most countries. Blairism didn't wear out its welcome only because of Iraq; ultimately, it wasn't seen to be making most people's lives better. The LibDems don't have a convincing agenda that really addresses that positively - they are riding high on exactly the negative appeal that you cite for the others - stop Brexit, stop Boris, stop Corbyn. Does the average LibDem voter know anything at all that the party is for?
a) he has won over the voters twice - so fair does to him, given the End of Days assessments upon him striding into Downing Street or
b) that is quite a long prorogation you've done there, Boris.....
If Emma Dent Coad stands again Labour have no chance of holding that seat. She's a southern version of Jared O'Mara only not (so far as we know) under arrest.
Johnson is potentially going to be as big a vote loser for the Tories as Corbyn is for Labour. He is absolutely poisonous on the door step.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/08/26/business/trump-abe-trade-deal-helps-u-s-farmers-staves-off-auto-tariffs/
They are like Saruman - they have become the thing they despise. Will their supporters keep voting for them? Possibly, but there are reasons (Ystradgynlais) to think not as well.
That said, there is talk of major redundancies among some of those engineering firms which will not be pleasant.
Edit - one other point to remember in Stroud is that David Drew, who used to have a big personal vote, has worn out his welcome. He's been much less the diligent local MP and much more the arse-licking Corbynista. That has not gone down well.
(29 August; swing of 22.2 from SLD to SNP would be required to gain seat)
SLD 4/9
SNP 2/1
(Smarkets)
He will be happy to go out and about visibly campaigning. The leadership election was more closed in because it was perceived as being his to lose so why make unforced errors
As a side note, a No Deal Brexit could mean Melton Mowbray and all other UK GIs (there are over 80) losing their protected status inside the EU.
I wrote about it on one of our platforms last year:
https://www.iam-media.com/copyright/there-one-brexit-ip-issue-could-explode-politically-and-it-has-nothing-do-patents
This was the whole point for Osborne - to cut a wasteful and unnecessary welfare benefit (my dad gets a free TV licence FFS) but to ensure that someone else got the blame
(I assume you weren’t factoring them in when you had the LDs gaining 10 seats but thinking about the 2017 baseline instead)
I don’t know Canterbury but I had understood that there were specific issues with the previous MP?
If that partially erodes then it makes there job a lot harder - even 2 or 3 % would make a difference.
In addition in many ways 2017 was a “free hit” as there was no possible way Corbyn was going to do well so it was safe to vote for him. That’s not going to be the same in the next GE
So why not spin out the bits that you want tax-payer subsidy for (World Service, News and a few others bits and bobs) and pay for that from the Ministry of Fun's budget. Then IPO the rest, with the government retaining a 49% shareholding.
Over time reassume the rights to content given to Netflix (and Amazon) for a pittance, just as Disney are currently doing. And launch worldwide with a standard subscription offer. It would immediately become the key challenger to Netflix in the global streaming wars. What is more, you could also bundle the World Service/BBC News through the platform to an international audience, if you wanted to get a bit more serious about spreading British propaganda overseas.
Take on the poison of Corbynism head-on by winning the privatization argument anew. I challenge anyway to explain to me why there should be a taxpayer funded dancing contest on the telly every Saturday. This should be an EASY argument to win.
Before long it's going to be too late and we're going to have a repeat of Royal Mail and Ordnance Survey, that stayed in public hands so long that their market value had receded by the time they were listed. Pepper blinking Pig just got sold for $4bn, what would the Beeb be worth at these valuation multiples?
After all with 5/10 years of Boris and No Deal Brexit you are almost certain to get independence
It’s all about the long game
He'll probably quit in frustration after a year or so.
So Bollocks to Brexit is a brilliant piece of political positioning that rightly identifies the new paradigm and neatly wraps it into a memorable descriptor. Stopping Brexit will positively impact onto every policy area - even if that impact is only to stop these areas getting worse.
A for "the centrist malaise" - you describe the Corbyn cult. The old paradigm was left/right and in the Labour Party the battle is not even across the entire spectrum. And you cultists have won, I have gone. Congratulations, you have removed this disgusting Blairite Tory who really was undercover for 25 years taking my instructions from Mandleson and my money from the Israeli embassy (and I DO NOT exaggerate - I have been told both of those things by cultists).
The problem for Corbyn cultists is that the paradigm has shifted. And by refusing to engage in Brexit, and for the Stalinists actively removing Corbyn from the referendum campaign, and in even now having a position that is remain this side of an election and leave if Labour were elected, it's YOU who are the centrist in malaise. And it will literally destroy the Labour vote.
Congratulations.
Corbyn will also face the problem the general election is likely to be in the midst of Brexit with Boris and Farage winning Leavers to finally deliver Brexit and the LDs, Greens and SNP winning Remainers to stop Brexit and so he will get squeezed whereas in 2017 there were still 2 days until Brexit Day so he could neutralise the issue by promising Leavers he would still deliver Brexit and Remainers he would stop a hard Brexit and then focus on an anti austerity message. He is unlikely to be able to repeat the trick again
How do you currently see things panning out - GE before Brexit, just after, or early next year?
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
I can see him attracting a lot of votes from people prepared to vote Boris who would never vote Tory otherwise. Whereas with Corbyn as we already can prove in spades the opposite is true, with Labour voters LLLLLLLLL all the way across the canvas records refusing to vote Labour because of him.
Just because May tried to run a personality election when she didn't have one doesn't mean it can't work for someone who actually has one. As it did twice in London...
Lol. As if we haven't moved forward in 5 years.
The BBC’s programming budget is a bit over a billion, only a fraction of which comes form commercial revenue. Netflix is ten times that, and growing rapidly; Amazon, Apple and Disney multiples of that, too.
Replacing even that billion from subscription revenue anytime soon is... unrealistic.
It would more likely end up being acquired by one of the real players.
A proposal somewhere along your lines is not entirely absurd, and indeed might be a means of retaining public service broadcasting in the UK, but it would need to be grounded in realism.