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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Before we can make judgements about the outcome of an early ge
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Before we can make judgements about the outcome of an early general election we need a new Scotland only poll
There’s been a lot of GB voting intention polling since Mr Johnson became the new Tory leader and Prime Minister but none of it has been Scotland specific. One thing we do know is that is can be highly misleading keying the latest GB poll shares into Baxter and getting anything that is relevant to Scotland.
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That sounds like the plan is Boles's not Corbyn's.
He has no chance of the HOC putting him in no 10 this side of a GE
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1166315438462124033
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1166315883972780035
This must all be part of Corbyn's master plan to cause no deal, right?
It's far too late for negative policies and campaigns to stop something - there is a majority for all of those already and they cancel each other out. They are the problem to solve, not the solution.
How they do it through legislation will be interesting
Force Boris to ask for an extension and then he refuses the EU offer.
What then ?
Hope to do Oban and Mallaig next week!
2. PB Tories claim that Corbyn secretly has a plan to do the opposite of X
3. Corbyn does X
4. PB Tories say "Look how weak Corbyn is, he was forced to do X!"
5. Repeat
Wonder why?
Can't be that he wants stop to No Deal - obvs - so there must be something else going on. A darker motive.
Probably the same one that's making him offer Ref2 even though everyone knows he's a hard Leaver.
Truth will out eventually. It always does.
Scotland and the Tories.
Will they rebrand as pro-Leave if there is a pre-Brexit GE?
This would position them as the ONLY such party in Scotland and therefore I can see why they might.
BTW - My yellow pen was active at the weekend: Leyburn to Redmire
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1166317280797609984
Scandal that he won't act!
CW is suspended from the party.
Scandal that it took nearly 12 hours! - and so pathetic how he changes his tune and caves under pressure.
To "agree the deal", you'd have to get all Opposition parties plus a substantial number of Tory rebels to do a complete volte-face and suddenly back a policy which they too have been arguing against for months.
I wouldn't call that easy.
If they wanted a different deal they would have produced a full plan and presented it to Brussels at the earliest opportunity.
But they didn't. So I conclude they don't.
It’s ridiculous.
Will be a challenge for the LDs to hold such a Brexity seat (I suspect Lamb has a very large personal vote).
Fair enough they did not want to stop it in that way. But they cannot simultaneously pretend that they would consider anything to stop no deal because that is provably a lie.
The lack of wiggle room to allow even for positive changes- eg the EU bend and we just need a few more weeks to resolve - was a sure sign the Gov is going shit or bust on a deal. Either its simply solved in a short time or they give up, they've left no time for details to be worked out.
Slab though are likely to lose all their seats to the SNP bar Edinburgh South. The Scottish LDs though on current polling could even gain a seat from the SNP, Fife North East
I'd love it if the separatists lost seats. Hopefully with anti-separatist tactical votes that is what will happen.
IMO this has probably diminished due to the rancour between Leave and Remain and notwithstanding the usual MSM stance the SNP may make better use of their pluralities in most seats.
The elephant in the room is of course the Alex Salmond case, but that will not be aired until later next year.
The evidence (such as it is) supports the general consensus that he is deadly serious about 31 Oct and therefore it will be No Deal or an election - or both.
Not long until we find out. Not long at all. We will know before the leaves go brown.
In 1997, the seat was 37% Con, 34% LD, 25% Lab
Lamb was then able to get in, in 2001 by squeezing the Lab vote (it got as low as 6% in 2010).
The current Con vote is 42% which is very low for a seat like this (retirees, rural, Brexit voters), which suggests there are a fair few Tories for Lamb as well as Lab tactical votes.
It will be interesting to see if the LDs pick an out and out remainer or someone who is at least open to a soft Brexit.
Mentioned above but not discussed - if all opposition are against conference recess, does that mean they are proposing to cancel Conferences?
If so, interesting re Labour as that's where policy made re Brexit.
I guess as an alternative Conferences could be cut to just two days over weekend.
The Lib Dem’s will have high hopes of gaining 1-2 more seats but also have seats at risk, notably their leader. I can’t see things changing materially but I would probably have said that before 2015 as well.
And I am on the high seas from the 14th Sept to 8th October
Still be able to watch it from North America
It reminds me of my dear lady wife - starts her shopping in one shop and goes round and round multiple shops and then declares
'I am going to buy the first one I saw'
Wensleydale? Not done that yet.
Mind, you, I did do the Rex Express at Paradise Wildlife Park (Herts.) a couple of weeks ago!
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/08/27/why-no-deal-brexit-is-a-battle-for-the-soul-of-our-nation/
I think that was the plan , whatever Johnson says that no deal was a million to one.
I had my mum with me, you see. She loves photography so I suggested we go to St Andrews. Ulterior motive was doing Croy to Dundee via Perth for the first time, as opposed to the Journey Planner suggested Glasgow-Edinburgh-Leuchars.
As I said before the thread, I wonder if cooperation on this will build trust to facilitate cooperation on other matters.
In many ways over the last decade Scotland has become more European than England. It does not do Marxism anymore or even big Government. It is very Scandinavian in its feel.
The A of C is a thoroughly good and admirable man in every way. He would still, I think, be unwise to support a negative anti No Deal campaign when it offers no coherent alternative, and ignores government policy which is to agree a deal.
2015 was peak SNP
It's only downwards for broken sleazy Separatists.
If this ridiculous agitprop gets any worse I expect Mr Meeks will be switching sides.
If we had fixed that problem Brexit would never have been an issue..
As a remainer herself Brexit is more complicated but Tory MPs don't seem to find it so. The ponds in which they are fishing are smaller but there are far fewer anglers throwing out bait.