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SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited August 2019 in General

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  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    First!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Second. Like the amount of time any political shibboleth stands scrutiny these days.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    The usual suspects offended, the usual suspects cheering him on. Interestingly the Times steering a middle path.
  • I like the Metro’s pro ROGUE Nation.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    edited August 2019
    I’m sure tomorrow’s newspapers, backing Boris or not, are overegging this blow to, what express calls ‘rebel alliance’, suspending Parliament preventing them from stopping no deal seems to be the over excited gist of Big suspender. Gloves off. Die is cast.

    It really doesn’t do that. actually that’s the main take out being missed isn't it? Cummings, Boris and their Lap Mogg have left the door open for the rebels to come in and thwart them.

    Even though they can, I am that damn sure they won’t.

    Rory Bremner done a skit many years ago, Geoff Boycott inspecting the pitch before England’s batting, digging a key in, creating rough, telling us that’s a bad bit of rough to bat on, real sticky wicket is that. Concluding with a big grin and a bloody lovely. Translate this to the opposition parties letting Boris go out there, and then exploiting the sticky wicket he ends up batting on.

    It’s the one thing we can all agree on, once Boris no deals us, the honouring of the 2016 vote is done, it’s laid to rest. But anyone believe that’s really the end of it for a generation? This is the bit we won’t agree on: what happens to Johnson’s Tory Party in this new landscape where the momentum switches to the nature of the deal with EU, enshrined by a confirmatory referendum. It’s an un-playable wicket in my mind. Boris gives too much away, The Brexit Party squeezes him, doesn’t move enough the pro EU parties squeeze him not least because the Conservative party always supplied a pro EU PM and cabinet, how many million pro EU conservatives can he afford to lose? And if Boris carries too much blame for any pain with his no deal he sheds voters in all directions.

    I don’t see sunny uplands for Boris once he achieves no deal brexit. In fact this will lose the conservatives many voters for a generation, if not ever.
  • A dire day minimised only by the number of direr days shortly still to come.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    The Brexit supporting media are doing a great diservice to the UK by supporting a mandateless maniac and no deal brexit.
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    No LibDem or Farage in the news. Fair to say the LibDems will have some coverage going into next week.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Welcome @egg!
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    By the way, if there is an election, is the voter ID thing in yet?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    ab195 said:

    No LibDem or Farage in the news. Fair to say the LibDems will have some coverage going into next week.
    The LDs have been in the news with Swinson's "No but, Yes but" to Corbyn.......which could account for some LD drift back to Labour.....or it could just be noise.......
  • I've not been online today due to real life but for those like Cyclefree suggesting if the government breaks conventions then what's to stop their opposition doing so in the future ... doesn't that cut both ways?

    The opposition, including sadly the supposedly independent Speaker, have set aside rules and conventions in order to get what they wanted. Why would the government stand still while the opposition tears up the rule book?

    In one way I think the origins for today trace back to when serious accusations were getting made against Bercow but Remainers chose to keep him because he would side with them down the track.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    But mainly No 10 :D
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    RobD said:

    But mainly No 10 :D
    And MPs.....with the EU not far behind. Remain voters get a pass, Leave voters do not.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    How much of a squeeze do we think Boris can apply to that 13% Brexit party number now that he's clearly pivioted towards no deal ?

    Knowing where that 13% is lcoated is vital to understanding how the election plays out.

    Does anyone think we're not going to have an election this year ?
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    So it seems like, despite me getting flack from both sides for this position, I am actually in agreement with two thirds of the public. Thank God for the British people.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    RobD said:

    But mainly No 10 :D
    If 60% of people think the EU are at least somewhat to blame, it hardly makes Remain or Rejoin much easier. People on all sides need to be the bigger man and compromise.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Three things:

    1. Perogation is quite within the gift of the government. If the Members of Parliament don't want to be perogued, it's very easy, they have time to VoNC the government. They can kick the current government out, but they can't direct it.

    Where I would have a problem would be if the government was VoNCed at the beginning of September, and Boris Johnson used his powers to ensure that the election was pushed to October 31st or into November.

    2. It's politically risky. Boris Johnson has taken full responsibility for No Deal (if that happens) by doing this. I am not one of these people who think that "if the sky doesn't fall in, it will be fine for the government". People vote according to their own personal circumstances. If you lose your home or your job, then the fact that food and medicine didn't become scarce in the country at large will be scant consolation.

    3. It probably makes the EU slightly more likely to deal, as it emphasises the seriousness of Boris's desire to leave. But the problem I've always had is that I think the EU is essentially rudderless until 1 November when the new Commission is sworn in. I think if the exit date was 31 December, then doing this would probably result in the EU scrambling. But there's no one at the EU to scramble right now. And Macron and Merkel have their own issues. So, while it may make a deal more likely, it doesn't make it a lot more likely.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    I've not been online today due to real life but for those like Cyclefree suggesting if the government breaks conventions then what's to stop their opposition doing so in the future ... doesn't that cut both ways?

    The opposition, including sadly the supposedly independent Speaker, have set aside rules and conventions in order to get what they wanted. Why would the government stand still while the opposition tears up the rule book?

    In one way I think the origins for today trace back to when serious accusations were getting made against Bercow but Remainers chose to keep him because he would side with them down the track.

    Exactly right. It is a race to the bottom now. It was begun by Remainers, conniving with the Speaker, changing parliamentary rules to suit their agenda. Now it has been massively accelerated by Boris. Everyone needs to pull back from the brink.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706
    edited August 2019
    Tories plus Brexit Party = 47%

    Labour plus LDs plus Greens = 47%.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    I've not been online today due to real life but for those like Cyclefree suggesting if the government breaks conventions then what's to stop their opposition doing so in the future ... doesn't that cut both ways?

    The opposition, including sadly the supposedly independent Speaker, have set aside rules and conventions in order to get what they wanted. Why would the government stand still while the opposition tears up the rule book?

    In one way I think the origins for today trace back to when serious accusations were getting made against Bercow but Remainers chose to keep him because he would side with them down the track.

    For those with short (or selective) memories....

    These motions are not meant to be amended. And yet, on Wednesday morning, it emerged that speaker John Bercow had, entirely without precedent, accepted an amendment to what is meant to be an unamendable motion.

    The amendment, by Remainer Tory MP Dominic Grieve, would force the government, when it inevitably loses its vote next week, to come back to the Commons with a new plan of action within just three days, not 21 days.....

    What had emerged earlier in the morning is that, when Dominic Grieve had first sought to make his amendment, Bercow had been advised by his clerks that he should not accept it, but he chose to anyway. When Andrea Leadsom asked him to publish the advice he had received and Bercow, naturally, refused, the house went wild.......

    I lost count of the number of times he was hopelessly skewered, by Leadsom, by Jacob Rees-Mogg, by Iain Duncan Smith, and by many others, to whom he could only say, “I will reflect on that.”.....

    It was, in short, a foul spectacle. And it should be repeated that Bercow only remains in his post because certain Labour MPs, most notably Margaret Beckett, were at least brave enough to admit last year that they were happy to overlook serious bullying allegations against him because they consider him an ally on Brexit, and they want him in post for scenes just like this.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/john-bercow-brexit-speaker-grieve-amendment-commons-mps-bullying-a8719641.html
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    HYUFD said:

    Tories plus Brexit Party = 47%

    Labour plus LDs plus Greens = 47%.

    Plus SNP = a majority for Remain.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    HYUFD said:

    Tories plus Brexit Party = 47%

    Labour plus LDs plus Greens = 47%.

    Plus SNP = a majority for Remain.
    A majority against No Deal, but Labour can't be classed as Remain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706

    HYUFD said:

    Tories plus Brexit Party = 47%

    Labour plus LDs plus Greens = 47%.

    Plus SNP = a majority for Remain.
    Not under FPTP given the Tory lead, plus the DUP still the largest party in Northern Ireland and back hard Brexit
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tories plus Brexit Party = 47%

    Labour plus LDs plus Greens = 47%.

    Plus SNP = a majority for Remain.
    Not under FPTP given the Tory lead, plus the DUP still the largest party in Northern Ireland and back hard Brexit
    :lol: I dont think Labour would do worse than 2010. If that is true given the resurgent LD and SNP, Boris and the Tories do worse than TM in 2017, which means the Tories will be screwed...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    This must be unusual. Brexit leading the news in Australia, Canada and New Zealand.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/
    https://www.theglobeandmail.com
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    Very little on the divisions with the Conservative Parliamentary party...there are some big beasts who will be deeply troubled by this. Hammond is just one of a number of big hitters who have yet to flex their muscles. I'd be fascinated to know what the likes of Clarke, Greening, Stewart etc etc feel about this.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Very little on the divisions with the Conservative Parliamentary party...there are some big beasts who will be deeply troubled by this. Hammond is just one of a number of big hitters who have yet to flex their muscles. I'd be fascinated to know what the likes of Clarke, Greening, Stewart etc etc feel about this.

    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1166697823703904256?s=20

    https://twitter.com/JustineGreening/status/1166640411458363392?s=20
  • I am not convinced there will be as many Tory rebels as is widely assumed.

    Those who are not planning to stand at the next GE (Bebb, Letwin, ???) have nothing to lose.

    Others who harbour any hope of being candidates at the next GE would need to consider their options very carefully.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,837
    Hugh Grant trending on twitter. Culture war exhibit #9867667654
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,879

    I've not been online today due to real life but for those like Cyclefree suggesting if the government breaks conventions then what's to stop their opposition doing so in the future ... doesn't that cut both ways?

    The opposition, including sadly the supposedly independent Speaker, have set aside rules and conventions in order to get what they wanted. Why would the government stand still while the opposition tears up the rule book?

    In one way I think the origins for today trace back to when serious accusations were getting made against Bercow but Remainers chose to keep him because he would side with them down the track.

    For those with short (or selective) memories....

    These motions are not meant to be amended. And yet, on Wednesday morning, it emerged that speaker John Bercow had, entirely without precedent, accepted an amendment to what is meant to be an unamendable motion.

    The amendment, by Remainer Tory MP Dominic Grieve, would force the government, when it inevitably loses its vote next week, to come back to the Commons with a new plan of action within just three days, not 21 days.....

    What had emerged earlier in the morning is that, when Dominic Grieve had first sought to make his amendment, Bercow had been advised by his clerks that he should not accept it, but he chose to anyway. When Andrea Leadsom asked him to publish the advice he had received and Bercow, naturally, refused, the house went wild.......

    I lost count of the number of times he was hopelessly skewered, by Leadsom, by Jacob Rees-Mogg, by Iain Duncan Smith, and by many others, to whom he could only say, “I will reflect on that.”.....

    It was, in short, a foul spectacle. And it should be repeated that Bercow only remains in his post because certain Labour MPs, most notably Margaret Beckett, were at least brave enough to admit last year that they were happy to overlook serious bullying allegations against him because they consider him an ally on Brexit, and they want him in post for scenes just like this.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/john-bercow-brexit-speaker-grieve-amendment-commons-mps-bullying-a8719641.html
    Bercow should have gone before this.

    But what he did seems merely to be allowing the majority of parliament to express themselves, in contravention of precedent. A mistake certainly. That seems rather less serious an offence than shutting down parliament to avoid scrutiny.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    If they’d listed “The Scots”, we’d have won.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Meanwhile, a live broadcast to @HYUFD's fantasy island:

    https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1166821430455132163

    38% of Scots voted to Leave the EU, more even the 28% who voted Tory in 2017. Not one poll has the SNP polling over 50%, the biggest gainers since 2017 in Scotland have been the LDs and the Brexit Party NOT the SNP
    An hour ago you told me that it was untrue that the front pages in Scotland a dream for the SNP. I await your apology expectantly. Or have you now given up on any kind of pretence that the truth matters?
    They aren't, as I said the Daily Record is a pro Labour, anti Tory paper and prefers the SNP to the Tories and all the Scottish only papers are pro Remain despite 38% of Scots voting Leave
    In what way are these headlines not a dream for the SNP? They are a direct assault on the idea of the union, illustrated by the poster child of unionism.
    They are a direct assault on the union by diehard Remainers who dream of breaking up the Union as punishment for the Leave vote, what is new?

    Yet still the SNP is polling below the 50% it got in 2015 BEFORE the Brexit vote
    Funny how when it comes to Brexit HY always adds Brexit Party and UKIP to the Con vote, but when it comes to Scottish sovereignty, HY pretends that the SNP stand alone. We don’t. We have the Greens, various small left-wing groups, 40% of SLab voters and a small, but significant, number of SCon and SLD voters behind us.

    Remember, support for independence was at 28% before the last referendum, and ended up at 45%. So, we are quite happy to be going into the next referendum starting at 50%.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,547

    I like the Metro’s pro ROGUE Nation.

    Clearly trawling our threads yesterday.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    ab195 said:

    No LibDem or Farage in the news. Fair to say the LibDems will have some coverage going into next week.
    The LDs have been in the news with Swinson's "No but, Yes but" to Corbyn.......which could account for some LD drift back to Labour.....or it could just be noise.......
    The Lib Dem ballot paper asked the wrong question during the summer. They should’ve asked:

    Who can stop Brexit?

    1. Ed Davey
    2. Vicky Pollard

    Then they might have got a more sensible result.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,547
    rcs1000 said:

    Three things:

    1. Perogation is quite within the gift of the government. If the Members of Parliament don't want to be perogued, it's very easy, they have time to VoNC the government. They can kick the current government out, but they can't direct it.

    Where I would have a problem would be if the government was VoNCed at the beginning of September, and Boris Johnson used his powers to ensure that the election was pushed to October 31st or into November.

    2. It's politically risky. Boris Johnson has taken full responsibility for No Deal (if that happens) by doing this. I am not one of these people who think that "if the sky doesn't fall in, it will be fine for the government". People vote according to their own personal circumstances. If you lose your home or your job, then the fact that food and medicine didn't become scarce in the country at large will be scant consolation.

    3. It probably makes the EU slightly more likely to deal, as it emphasises the seriousness of Boris's desire to leave. But the problem I've always had is that I think the EU is essentially rudderless until 1 November when the new Commission is sworn in. I think if the exit date was 31 December, then doing this would probably result in the EU scrambling. But there's no one at the EU to scramble right now. And Macron and Merkel have their own issues. So, while it may make a deal more likely, it doesn't make it a lot more likely.

    1) is hardly convincing - what if a PM decided to prorogue for twelve months ?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Three things:

    1. Perogation is quite within the gift of the government. If the Members of Parliament don't want to be perogued, it's very easy, they have time to VoNC the government. They can kick the current government out, but they can't direct it.

    Where I would have a problem would be if the government was VoNCed at the beginning of September, and Boris Johnson used his powers to ensure that the election was pushed to October 31st or into November.

    2. It's politically risky. Boris Johnson has taken full responsibility for No Deal (if that happens) by doing this. I am not one of these people who think that "if the sky doesn't fall in, it will be fine for the government". People vote according to their own personal circumstances. If you lose your home or your job, then the fact that food and medicine didn't become scarce in the country at large will be scant consolation.

    3. It probably makes the EU slightly more likely to deal, as it emphasises the seriousness of Boris's desire to leave. But the problem I've always had is that I think the EU is essentially rudderless until 1 November when the new Commission is sworn in. I think if the exit date was 31 December, then doing this would probably result in the EU scrambling. But there's no one at the EU to scramble right now. And Macron and Merkel have their own issues. So, while it may make a deal more likely, it doesn't make it a lot more likely.

    1) is hardly convincing - what if a PM decided to prorogue for twelve months ?
    Is there any actual limit on the length of prorogation? If not, seems a serious flaw in our constitutional setup.

    In the medium term, the events of the past 12 months may lead to a written constitution
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Three things:

    1. Perogation is quite within the gift of the government. If the Members of Parliament don't want to be perogued, it's very easy, they have time to VoNC the government. They can kick the current government out, but they can't direct it.

    Where I would have a problem would be if the government was VoNCed at the beginning of September, and Boris Johnson used his powers to ensure that the election was pushed to October 31st or into November.

    2. It's politically risky. Boris Johnson has taken full responsibility for No Deal (if that happens) by doing this. I am not one of these people who think that "if the sky doesn't fall in, it will be fine for the government". People vote according to their own personal circumstances. If you lose your home or your job, then the fact that food and medicine didn't become scarce in the country at large will be scant consolation.

    3. It probably makes the EU slightly more likely to deal, as it emphasises the seriousness of Boris's desire to leave. But the problem I've always had is that I think the EU is essentially rudderless until 1 November when the new Commission is sworn in. I think if the exit date was 31 December, then doing this would probably result in the EU scrambling. But there's no one at the EU to scramble right now. And Macron and Merkel have their own issues. So, while it may make a deal more likely, it doesn't make it a lot more likely.

    1) is hardly convincing - what if a PM decided to prorogue for twelve months ?
    That I suspect would be a step too far for Her Majesty
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited August 2019
    OT I guess the debate qualification cut-off (Aug 28) has passed, not everyone who missed it has withdrawn but effectively they're out, with the possible exception of Tulsi Gabbard who may still be sustained in the race by the paranoid style.

    So it's:

    Biden
    Booker
    Buttigieg
    Castro
    Harris
    KLOBUCHAR
    O'Rourke
    Sanders
    Warren
    Yang

    https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_presidential_primary_debate_(September_12-13,_2019)

    I think they're still doing two nights so it should be quite a bit more manageable.
  • How much of a squeeze do we think Boris can apply to that 13% Brexit party number now that he's clearly pivioted towards no deal ?

    Knowing where that 13% is lcoated is vital to understanding how the election plays out.

    Does anyone think we're not going to have an election this year ?

    UNS on that YouGov has the Tories taking seats from the SNP in Scotland :-D That goes to show just how pointless it is to apply UNS to the current polling. I don’t know what the solution is, but anyone relying on polls as being anything more than broadly indicative right now is a fool. For me the key number is what the anti/pro No Deal blocs are getting. What’s interesting is that it’s broadly the same among all pollsters: the anti one is in a 53%-55% band. What I don’t think the polling is able to tell us is how that might translate into tactical votes once we do get to election time. I suspect that yesterday’s events have made such voting more likely and that the more the anti-No Deal parties work together, the more likely it will become.

  • Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Three things:

    1. Perogation is quite within the gift of the government. If the Members of Parliament don't want to be perogued, it's very easy, they have time to VoNC the government. They can kick the current government out, but they can't direct it.

    Where I would have a problem would be if the government was VoNCed at the beginning of September, and Boris Johnson used his powers to ensure that the election was pushed to October 31st or into November.

    2. It's politically risky. Boris Johnson has taken full responsibility for No Deal (if that happens) by doing this. I am not one of these people who think that "if the sky doesn't fall in, it will be fine for the government". People vote according to their own personal circumstances. If you lose your home or your job, then the fact that food and medicine didn't become scarce in the country at large will be scant consolation.

    3. It probably makes the EU slightly more likely to deal, as it emphasises the seriousness of Boris's desire to leave. But the problem I've always had is that I think the EU is essentially rudderless until 1 November when the new Commission is sworn in. I think if the exit date was 31 December, then doing this would probably result in the EU scrambling. But there's no one at the EU to scramble right now. And Macron and Merkel have their own issues. So, while it may make a deal more likely, it doesn't make it a lot more likely.

    1) is hardly convincing - what if a PM decided to prorogue for twelve months ?
    Would be contrary to the Septennial Act and the Triennial Act as parliament has to meet at least annually and pass at least one bill into legislation.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Three things:

    1. Perogation is quite within the gift of the government. If the Members of Parliament don't want to be perogued, it's very easy, they have time to VoNC the government. They can kick the current government out, but they can't direct it.

    Where I would have a problem would be if the government was VoNCed at the beginning of September, and Boris Johnson used his powers to ensure that the election was pushed to October 31st or into November.

    2. It's politically risky. Boris Johnson has taken full responsibility for No Deal (if that happens) by doing this. I am not one of these people who think that "if the sky doesn't fall in, it will be fine for the government". People vote according to their own personal circumstances. If you lose your home or your job, then the fact that food and medicine didn't become scarce in the country at large will be scant consolation.

    3. It probably makes the EU slightly more likely to deal, as it emphasises the seriousness of Boris's desire to leave. But the problem I've always had is that I think the EU is essentially rudderless until 1 November when the new Commission is sworn in. I think if the exit date was 31 December, then doing this would probably result in the EU scrambling. But there's no one at the EU to scramble right now. And Macron and Merkel have their own issues. So, while it may make a deal more likely, it doesn't make it a lot more likely.

    1) is hardly convincing - what if a PM decided to prorogue for twelve months ?
    None, at present, although the exchequer may suffer slightly!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    Nigelb said:


    1) is hardly convincing - what if a PM decided to prorogue for twelve months ?

    That I suspect would be a step too far for Her Majesty
    This is the thing though: Why is "too far" between 5 weeks and 1 year? It feels like the defininition of "too far" should be "you're obviously fucking around", which is obviously triggered by this latest shenanigan.
  • Johnson has told us - and I quote directly here - that No Deal will be “easily manageable”. We will see. If it isn’t, voters will remember that he did say it and that he shut down the Parliament they elected to secure it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Johnson has told us - and I quote directly here - that No Deal will be “easily manageable”. We will see. If it isn’t, voters will remember that he did say it and that he shut down the Parliament they elected to secure it.

    What I want to know is why the VONC wasn't tabled immediately? Surely it'd have a fair chance of passing.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    That petition has signatures from all over the world, 9,000+ in France, 3 from British Antarctic Territiory, 34 from Iceland, 28 from Chile, 30 from Croatia. Good to see that internet access is so good.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157.json
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    dr_spyn said:

    That petition has signatures from all over the world, 9,000+ in France, 3 from British Antarctic Territiory, 34 from Iceland, 28 from Chile, 30 from Croatia. Good to see that internet access is so good.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157.json

    I think UK voters live in each of those countries, so not all too unusual.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Three things:

    1. Perogation is quite within the gift of the government. If the Members of Parliament don't want to be perogued, it's very easy, they have time to VoNC the government. They can kick the current government out, but they can't direct it.

    Where I would have a problem would be if the government was VoNCed at the beginning of September, and Boris Johnson used his powers to ensure that the election was pushed to October 31st or into November.

    2. It's politically risky. Boris Johnson has taken full responsibility for No Deal (if that happens) by doing this. I am not one of these people who think that "if the sky doesn't fall in, it will be fine for the government". People vote according to their own personal circumstances. If you lose your home or your job, then the fact that food and medicine didn't become scarce in the country at large will be scant consolation.

    3. It probably makes the EU slightly more likely to deal, as it emphasises the seriousness of Boris's desire to leave. But the problem I've always had is that I think the EU is essentially rudderless until 1 November when the new Commission is sworn in. I think if the exit date was 31 December, then doing this would probably result in the EU scrambling. But there's no one at the EU to scramble right now. And Macron and Merkel have their own issues. So, while it may make a deal more likely, it doesn't make it a lot more likely.

    1) is hardly convincing - what if a PM decided to prorogue for twelve months ?
    Would be contrary to the Septennial Act and the Triennial Act as parliament has to meet at least annually and pass at least one bill into legislation.
    Parliament always passes a token piece of legislation - the Outlaws & Vestries Bill - at each opening of Parliament. So a dictator could recall Parliament for 1 day a year and then re-prorogue for another 12 months.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    dr_spyn said:

    That petition has signatures from all over the world, 9,000+ in France, 3 from British Antarctic Territiory, 34 from Iceland, 28 from Chile, 30 from Croatia. Good to see that internet access is so good.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157.json


    British citizens living abroad, surely not
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited August 2019

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Three things:

    1. Perogation is quite within the gift of the government. If the Members of Parliament don't want to be perogued, it's very easy, they have time to VoNC the government. They can kick the current government out, but they can't direct it.

    Where I would have a problem would be if the government was VoNCed at the beginning of September, and Boris Johnson used his powers to ensure that the election was pushed to October 31st or into November.

    2. It's politically risky. Boris Johnson has taken full responsibility for No Deal (if that happens) by doing this. I am not one of these people who think that "if the sky doesn't fall in, it will be fine for the government". People vote according to their own personal circumstances. If you lose your home or your job, then the fact that food and medicine didn't become scarce in the country at large will be scant consolation.

    3. It probably makes the EU slightly more likely to deal, as it emphasises the seriousness of Boris's desire to leave. But the problem I've always had is that I think the EU is essentially rudderless until 1 November when the new Commission is sworn in. I think if the exit date was 31 December, then doing this would probably result in the EU scrambling. But there's no one at the EU to scramble right now. And Macron and Merkel have their own issues. So, while it may make a deal more likely, it doesn't make it a lot more likely.

    1) is hardly convincing - what if a PM decided to prorogue for twelve months ?
    Would be contrary to the Septennial Act and the Triennial Act as parliament has to meet at least annually and pass at least one bill into legislation.
    Parliament always passes a token piece of legislation - the Outlaws & Vestries Bill - at each opening of Parliament. So a dictator could recall Parliament for 1 day a year and then re-prorogue for another 12 months.
    There would have to be elections at some point. Even without the FTPA the length of a parliament was limited.

    Actually, I don't think that bill is passed. So it wouldn't meet the criteria for an enacted piece of legislation.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    dr_spyn said:

    That petition has signatures from all over the world, 9,000+ in France, 3 from British Antarctic Territiory, 34 from Iceland, 28 from Chile, 30 from Croatia. Good to see that internet access is so good.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157.json


    British citizens living abroad, surely not
    Not only that, the French have discovered the internet
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    How much of a squeeze do we think Boris can apply to that 13% Brexit party number now that he's clearly pivioted towards no deal ?

    Knowing where that 13% is lcoated is vital to understanding how the election plays out.

    Does anyone think we're not going to have an election this year ?

    UNS on that YouGov has the Tories taking seats from the SNP in Scotland :-D That goes to show just how pointless it is to apply UNS to the current polling. I don’t know what the solution is, but anyone relying on polls as being anything more than broadly indicative right now is a fool. For me the key number is what the anti/pro No Deal blocs are getting. What’s interesting is that it’s broadly the same among all pollsters: the anti one is in a 53%-55% band. What I don’t think the polling is able to tell us is how that might translate into tactical votes once we do get to election time. I suspect that yesterday’s events have made such voting more likely and that the more the anti-No Deal parties work together, the more likely it will become.

    The problem with that notion being that the principal member of such an electoral alliance, Labour, cannot and will not participate. Jeremy Corbyn isn't interested in such a thing and isn't trusted by Remainers in any event.

    Of the other potential members, we can also write off the SNP because they've no real incentive to co-operate with the (Unionist) Lib Dems, have no need to in any event, and already control most of the seats in Scotland so can't make much more of a contribution regardless. The Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid could do a Brecon and try to thrash out some sort of arrangement not to stand against each other, but that's unlikely to make much of a difference in more than a small handful of constituencies.

    Hardcore Remain voters are, of course, perfectly capable of making tactical judgments without direction from the parties, but we have to question how many of them there are, where might their input prove decisive, and how aware of their local circumstances are they? Furious Labour-voting Remainers could very well harm their own cause defecting to the Lib Dems in some seats as they do to help it in others.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861
    dr_spyn said:

    That petition has signatures from all over the world, 9,000+ in France, 3 from British Antarctic Territiory, 34 from Iceland, 28 from Chile, 30 from Croatia. Good to see that internet access is so good.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157.json

    That is hardly a shock, as British citizens overseas have the right to vote in British elections.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    RobD said:

    Johnson has told us - and I quote directly here - that No Deal will be “easily manageable”. We will see. If it isn’t, voters will remember that he did say it and that he shut down the Parliament they elected to secure it.

    What I want to know is why the VONC wasn't tabled immediately? Surely it'd have a fair chance of passing.
    Parliament has to be siting and Corbyn (and only Corbyn) has to do it.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861
    RobD said:

    Johnson has told us - and I quote directly here - that No Deal will be “easily manageable”. We will see. If it isn’t, voters will remember that he did say it and that he shut down the Parliament they elected to secure it.

    What I want to know is why the VONC wasn't tabled immediately? Surely it'd have a fair chance of passing.
    Do you know that at least 3 Conservative MPs will vote against the government in a VoNC? And "a fair chance of passing" is not enough. A failed VoNC strengthens Mr Johnson.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    Johnson has told us - and I quote directly here - that No Deal will be “easily manageable”. We will see. If it isn’t, voters will remember that he did say it and that he shut down the Parliament they elected to secure it.

    What I want to know is why the VONC wasn't tabled immediately? Surely it'd have a fair chance of passing.
    Parliament has to be siting and Corbyn (and only Corbyn) has to do it.
    Ah, they return next week and not this week. Thanks!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    eristdoof said:

    dr_spyn said:

    That petition has signatures from all over the world, 9,000+ in France, 3 from British Antarctic Territiory, 34 from Iceland, 28 from Chile, 30 from Croatia. Good to see that internet access is so good.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157.json

    That is hardly a shock, as British citizens overseas have the right to vote in British elections.
    Not all of them. Labour curtailed that right. After 15 years you lose it.
  • How much of a squeeze do we think Boris can apply to that 13% Brexit party number now that he's clearly pivioted towards no deal ?

    Knowing where that 13% is lcoated is vital to understanding how the election plays out.

    Does anyone think we're not going to have an election this year ?

    UNS on that YouGov has the Tories taking seats from the SNP in Scotland :-D That goes to show just how pointless it is to apply UNS to the current polling. I don’t know what the solution is, but anyone relying on polls as being anything more than broadly indicative right now is a fool. For me the key number is what the anti/pro No Deal blocs are getting. What’s interesting is that it’s broadly the same among all pollsters: the anti one is in a 53%-55% band. What I don’t think the polling is able to tell us is how that might translate into tactical votes once we do get to election time. I suspect that yesterday’s events have made such voting more likely and that the more the anti-No Deal parties work together, the more likely it will become.

    The problem with that notion being that the principal member of such an electoral alliance, Labour, cannot and will not participate. Jeremy Corbyn isn't interested in such a thing and isn't trusted by Remainers in any event.

    Of the other potential members, we can also write off the SNP because they've no real incentive to co-operate with the (Unionist) Lib Dems, have no need to in any event, and already control most of the seats in Scotland so can't make much more of a contribution regardless. The Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid could do a Brecon and try to thrash out some sort of arrangement not to stand against each other, but that's unlikely to make much of a difference in more than a small handful of constituencies.

    Hardcore Remain voters are, of course, perfectly capable of making tactical judgments without direction from the parties, but we have to question how many of them there are, where might their input prove decisive, and how aware of their local circumstances are they? Furious Labour-voting Remainers could very well harm their own cause defecting to the Lib Dems in some seats as they do to help it in others.

    The SNP will do what it needs to do in Scotland. As for Labour, yesterday’s events have united all parts of the party - and all will expect the leadership to work closely with other parties to stop Johnson. There will be no formal alliances, but past experience shows that voters know how to cast their votes in the most effective way if they are seeking to stop something. The key for Labour is holding seats. The Tories need big moves to the LDs and Greens in those seats. We’ll see what happens.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    eristdoof said:

    RobD said:

    Johnson has told us - and I quote directly here - that No Deal will be “easily manageable”. We will see. If it isn’t, voters will remember that he did say it and that he shut down the Parliament they elected to secure it.

    What I want to know is why the VONC wasn't tabled immediately? Surely it'd have a fair chance of passing.
    Do you know that at least 3 Conservative MPs will vote against the government in a VoNC? And "a fair chance of passing" is not enough. A failed VoNC strengthens Mr Johnson.
    As if Bercow would cast his vote for the government in the event of a tie..... ;)
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136


    Not all of them. Labour curtailed that right. After 15 years you lose it.

    The petition site is less restrictive - the box just says "I am a British citizen or UK resident". If they'd run the referendum on that franchise I don't think it would have passed.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    Supportive newspapers look to be struggling to put a positive spin on this move. It seems they want to say something like "The Day Democracy Won" but this thing is just too dodgy even for them.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941


    Not all of them. Labour curtailed that right. After 15 years you lose it.

    The petition site is less restrictive - the box just says "I am a British citizen or UK resident". If they'd run the referendum on that franchise I don't think it would have passed.
    Why should non-citizens have the right to vote? If they want to get involved, they can get naturalised.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,261
    RobD said:

    Johnson has told us - and I quote directly here - that No Deal will be “easily manageable”. We will see. If it isn’t, voters will remember that he did say it and that he shut down the Parliament they elected to secure it.

    What I want to know is why the VONC wasn't tabled immediately? Surely it'd have a fair chance of passing.
    There wasn't a majority for it before the recess. It can't be tabled during a recess. The suspension means we're heading for another recess. So the question is whether there's a majority next week.

    Issues are:

    * It needs Tory rebels
    * Tory rebels would prefer to legislate to instruct Johnson to seek an extension. But it's not clear there's time next week to pass that, especially as Government loyalists can filibuster it in the Lords. After prorogation, the Bill falls and would have to start again.
    * A VONC that fails will strengthen Johnson.
    * A VONC that succeeds without an alternative PM lined up leads directly to the Shambolic Rebels vs Heroic PM election that Johnson wants

    The way through is therefore:

    1. Try to seize the agenda for legislation next week.
    2. If it doesn't pass, consider a VONC on Thursday (but worry about point 4)
    3. More probably, introduce a VONC in mid-October AND agree with a budding caretaker PM to seek an extension to Oct 31 while a referendum or an election is held.

    Agreeing the caretaker and agreeing whether his job is to call a referendum or an election first is the tricky bit. I think next week is too soon for that, but it might well work in mid-October.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136


    Not all of them. Labour curtailed that right. After 15 years you lose it.

    Also the Tories promised to restore it but they lied. I think anyone with non-tax-haven foreign connections is now considered suspicious.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    Johnson has told us - and I quote directly here - that No Deal will be “easily manageable”. We will see. If it isn’t, voters will remember that he did say it and that he shut down the Parliament they elected to secure it.

    What I want to know is why the VONC wasn't tabled immediately? Surely it'd have a fair chance of passing.
    There wasn't a majority for it before the recess. It can't be tabled during a recess. The suspension means we're heading for another recess. So the question is whether there's a majority next week.

    Issues are:

    * It needs Tory rebels
    * Tory rebels would prefer to legislate to instruct Johnson to seek an extension. But it's not clear there's time next week to pass that, especially as Government loyalists can filibuster it in the Lords. After prorogation, the Bill falls and would have to start again.
    * A VONC that fails will strengthen Johnson.
    * A VONC that succeeds without an alternative PM lined up leads directly to the Shambolic Rebels vs Heroic PM election that Johnson wants

    The way through is therefore:

    1. Try to seize the agenda for legislation next week.
    2. If it doesn't pass, consider a VONC on Thursday (but worry about point 4)
    3. More probably, introduce a VONC in mid-October AND agree with a budding caretaker PM to seek an extension to Oct 31 while a referendum or an election is held.

    Agreeing the caretaker and agreeing whether his job is to call a referendum or an election first is the tricky bit. I think next week is too soon for that, but it might well work in mid-October.
    Parliament was heading for another recess anyway for the conference season, proroguing it made very little difference in that respect.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    RobD said:


    Why should non-citizens have the right to vote? If they want to get involved, they can get naturalised.

    I'm not saying the petition's settings *should* be the franchise - I think everyone should be able to vote where they pay taxes. But residence or nationality, pick one or the other.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    eristdoof said:

    dr_spyn said:

    That petition has signatures from all over the world, 9,000+ in France, 3 from British Antarctic Territiory, 34 from Iceland, 28 from Chile, 30 from Croatia. Good to see that internet access is so good.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157.json

    That is hardly a shock, as British citizens overseas have the right to vote in British elections.
    Not all of them. Labour curtailed that right. After 15 years you lose it.
    It doesn’t ask how long you’ve been away although you do need a U.K. format postcode for the vote to go through, I used the one on which my registration is based but said I was in Spain. It’s not as easy as people claim to cheat the petition, you might think you can by multiple signatures and silly names being accepted but they are cleaned and checked for multiple signatures from one in address etc. yes it can be signed by 16 year olds but so what if they are motivated to do so. As I said yesterday you can use the same email address twice as many couples like us share the one so I signed on behalf of my wife.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,837

    OT I guess the debate qualification cut-off (Aug 28) has passed, not everyone who missed it has withdrawn but effectively they're out, with the possible exception of Tulsi Gabbard who may still be sustained in the race by the paranoid style.

    So it's:

    Biden
    Booker
    Buttigieg
    Castro
    Harris
    KLOBUCHAR
    O'Rourke
    Sanders
    Warren
    Yang

    https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_presidential_primary_debate_(September_12-13,_2019)

    I think they're still doing two nights so it should be quite a bit more manageable.

    Why 2 nights when we're down to 10 ?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Out of this morass you would expect a leader to appear though It's difficult to see where from. Johnson has cleaved out for himself an ungovernable country. A factory closes an airline goes bust a sudden influx of immigrants, It's all Johnson's fault. Playing the tough guy might impress the Sun and Express or work in 'Dirty Harry but this is real life and there are some very angry people out there.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,547
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Johnson has told us - and I quote directly here - that No Deal will be “easily manageable”. We will see. If it isn’t, voters will remember that he did say it and that he shut down the Parliament they elected to secure it.

    What I want to know is why the VONC wasn't tabled immediately? Surely it'd have a fair chance of passing.
    There wasn't a majority for it before the recess. It can't be tabled during a recess. The suspension means we're heading for another recess. So the question is whether there's a majority next week.

    Issues are:

    * It needs Tory rebels
    * Tory rebels would prefer to legislate to instruct Johnson to seek an extension. But it's not clear there's time next week to pass that, especially as Government loyalists can filibuster it in the Lords. After prorogation, the Bill falls and would have to start again.
    * A VONC that fails will strengthen Johnson.
    * A VONC that succeeds without an alternative PM lined up leads directly to the Shambolic Rebels vs Heroic PM election that Johnson wants

    The way through is therefore:

    1. Try to seize the agenda for legislation next week.
    2. If it doesn't pass, consider a VONC on Thursday (but worry about point 4)
    3. More probably, introduce a VONC in mid-October AND agree with a budding caretaker PM to seek an extension to Oct 31 while a referendum or an election is held.

    Agreeing the caretaker and agreeing whether his job is to call a referendum or an election first is the tricky bit. I think next week is too soon for that, but it might well work in mid-October.
    Parliament was heading for another recess anyway for the conference season, proroguing it made very little difference in that respect.
    Parliament has not voted for recess, and it’s entirely possible - likely even, given the circumstances - that it would not.
    And even allowing for recess, the length of the prorogation is entirely unnecessary.

    The arguments attempting to justify this are absolutely disingenuous.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited August 2019


    Not all of them. Labour curtailed that right. After 15 years you lose it.

    Also the Tories promised to restore it but they lied. I think anyone with non-tax-haven foreign connections is now considered suspicious.
    I think it is still on the government's to-do list, so saying they lied is a bit premature. The previous attempt via a private member's bill was killed by the usual suspect.

    https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN05923

    The Government has said that it remains committed to ending the 15-year limit.
  • RobD said:

    Johnson has told us - and I quote directly here - that No Deal will be “easily manageable”. We will see. If it isn’t, voters will remember that he did say it and that he shut down the Parliament they elected to secure it.

    What I want to know is why the VONC wasn't tabled immediately? Surely it'd have a fair chance of passing.
    There wasn't a majority for it before the recess. It can't be tabled during a recess. The suspension means we're heading for another recess. So the question is whether there's a majority next week.

    Issues are:

    * It needs Tory rebels
    * Tory rebels would prefer to legislate to instruct Johnson to seek an extension. But it's not clear there's time next week to pass that, especially as Government loyalists can filibuster it in the Lords. After prorogation, the Bill falls and would have to start again.
    * A VONC that fails will strengthen Johnson.
    * A VONC that succeeds without an alternative PM lined up leads directly to the Shambolic Rebels vs Heroic PM election that Johnson wants

    The way through is therefore:

    1. Try to seize the agenda for legislation next week.
    2. If it doesn't pass, consider a VONC on Thursday (but worry about point 4)
    3. More probably, introduce a VONC in mid-October AND agree with a budding caretaker PM to seek an extension to Oct 31 while a referendum or an election is held.

    Agreeing the caretaker and agreeing whether his job is to call a referendum or an election first is the tricky bit. I think next week is too soon for that, but it might well work in mid-October.

    Or her job. See Harriet Harman.

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Johnson has told us - and I quote directly here - that No Deal will be “easily manageable”. We will see. If it isn’t, voters will remember that he did say it and that he shut down the Parliament they elected to secure it.

    What I want to know is why the VONC wasn't tabled immediately? Surely it'd have a fair chance of passing.
    There wasn't a majority for it before the recess. It can't be tabled during a recess. The suspension means we're heading for another recess. So the question is whether there's a majority next week.

    Issues are:

    * It needs Tory rebels
    * Tory rebels would prefer to legislate to instruct Johnson to seek an extension. But it's not clear there's time next week to pass that, especially as Government loyalists can filibuster it in the Lords. After prorogation, the Bill falls and would have to start again.
    * A VONC that fails will strengthen Johnson.
    * A VONC that succeeds without an alternative PM lined up leads directly to the Shambolic Rebels vs Heroic PM election that Johnson wants

    The way through is therefore:

    1. Try to seize the agenda for legislation next week.
    2. If it doesn't pass, consider a VONC on Thursday (but worry about point 4)
    3. More probably, introduce a VONC in mid-October AND agree with a budding caretaker PM to seek an extension to Oct 31 while a referendum or an election is held.

    Agreeing the caretaker and agreeing whether his job is to call a referendum or an election first is the tricky bit. I think next week is too soon for that, but it might well work in mid-October.
    Parliament was heading for another recess anyway for the conference season, proroguing it made very little difference in that respect.
    The rebel’s were considering voting against the conference recess the prorogation has removed that possibility producing the challenge NP lays out, it is a five week shutdown and cleverly played by the Tory media that it’s only five days, don’t forget one day for queens speech and five days of debate also eat into the available time.
  • When is the Tory conference? I want to be out of the country for it! The English nationalism on display will be vomit-inducing.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    When is the Tory conference? I want to be out of the country for it! The English nationalism on display will be vomit-inducing.

    29th September - 2nd October.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861
    nichomar said:

    eristdoof said:

    dr_spyn said:

    That petition has signatures from all over the world, 9,000+ in France, 3 from British Antarctic Territiory, 34 from Iceland, 28 from Chile, 30 from Croatia. Good to see that internet access is so good.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157.json

    That is hardly a shock, as British citizens overseas have the right to vote in British elections.
    Not all of them. Labour curtailed that right. After 15 years you lose it.
    It doesn’t ask how long you’ve been away although you do need a U.K. format postcode for the vote to go through, I used the one on which my registration is based but said I was in Spain. It’s not as easy as people claim to cheat the petition, you might think you can by multiple signatures and silly names being accepted but they are cleaned and checked for multiple signatures from one in address etc. yes it can be signed by 16 year olds but so what if they are motivated to do so. As I said yesterday you can use the same email address twice as many couples like us share the one so I signed on behalf of my wife.
    Are you sure that you need a UK Postcode? I put Country=Germany and my German postcode which was not flagged as a problem, and the confirmaiton Email came through.

    I don't want to sign twice as that feeds the distractors, but if my "first signature" wasn't counted then I have a UK Postcode I can use.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,547
    nichomar said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Johnson has told us - and I quote directly here - that No Deal will be “easily manageable”. We will see. If it isn’t, voters will remember that he did say it and that he shut down the Parliament they elected to secure it.

    What I want to know is why the VONC wasn't tabled immediately? Surely it'd have a fair chance of passing.
    There wasn't a majority for it before the recess. It can't be tabled during a recess. The suspension means we're heading for another recess. So the question is whether there's a majority next week.

    Issues are:

    * It needs Tory rebels
    * Tory rebels would prefer to legislate to instruct Johnson to seek an extension. But it's not clear there's time next week to pass that, especially as Government loyalists can filibuster it in the Lords. After prorogation, the Bill falls and would have to start again.
    * A VONC that fails will strengthen Johnson.
    * A VONC that succeeds without an alternative PM lined up leads directly to the Shambolic Rebels vs Heroic PM election that Johnson wants

    The way through is therefore:

    1. Try to seize the agenda for legislation next week.
    2. If it doesn't pass, consider a VONC on Thursday (but worry about point 4)
    3. More probably, introduce a VONC in mid-October AND agree with a budding caretaker PM to seek an extension to Oct 31 while a referendum or an election is held.

    Agreeing the caretaker and agreeing whether his job is to call a referendum or an election first is the tricky bit. I think next week is too soon for that, but it might well work in mid-October.
    Parliament was heading for another recess anyway for the conference season, proroguing it made very little difference in that respect.
    The rebel’s were considering voting against the conference recess the prorogation has removed that possibility producing the challenge NP lays out, it is a five week shutdown and cleverly played by the Tory media that it’s only five days, don’t forget one day for queens speech and five days of debate also eat into the available time.
    A Queens speech setting out the program of a PM without a mandate, and quite likely to be voted down.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,997

    RobD said:

    Johnson has told us - and I quote directly here - that No Deal will be “easily manageable”. We will see. If it isn’t, voters will remember that he did say it and that he shut down the Parliament they elected to secure it.

    What I want to know is why the VONC wasn't tabled immediately? Surely it'd have a fair chance of passing.
    There wasn't a majority for it before the recess. It can't be tabled during a recess. The suspension means we're heading for another recess. So the question is whether there's a majority next week.

    Issues are:

    * It needs Tory rebels
    * Tory rebels would prefer to legislate to instruct Johnson to seek an extension. But it's not clear there's time next week to pass that, especially as Government loyalists can filibuster it in the Lords. After prorogation, the Bill falls and would have to start again.
    * A VONC that fails will strengthen Johnson.
    * A VONC that succeeds without an alternative PM lined up leads directly to the Shambolic Rebels vs Heroic PM election that Johnson wants

    The way through is therefore:

    1. Try to seize the agenda for legislation next week.
    2. If it doesn't pass, consider a VONC on Thursday (but worry about point 4)
    3. More probably, introduce a VONC in mid-October AND agree with a budding caretaker PM to seek an extension to Oct 31 while a referendum or an election is held.

    Agreeing the caretaker and agreeing whether his job is to call a referendum or an election first is the tricky bit. I think next week is too soon for that, but it might well work in mid-October.

    Or her job. See Harriet Harman.

    And she can't "call a referendum". She would need to pass legislation.
  • eristdoof said:

    dr_spyn said:

    That petition has signatures from all over the world, 9,000+ in France, 3 from British Antarctic Territiory, 34 from Iceland, 28 from Chile, 30 from Croatia. Good to see that internet access is so good.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157.json

    That is hardly a shock, as British citizens overseas have the right to vote in British elections.
    Not all of them. Labour curtailed that right. After 15 years you lose it.

    The government has had nine years to change that. It has chosen not to.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    eristdoof said:

    dr_spyn said:

    That petition has signatures from all over the world, 9,000+ in France, 3 from British Antarctic Territiory, 34 from Iceland, 28 from Chile, 30 from Croatia. Good to see that internet access is so good.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157.json

    That is hardly a shock, as British citizens overseas have the right to vote in British elections.
    Not all of them. Labour curtailed that right. After 15 years you lose it.

    The government has had nine years to change that. It has chosen not to.

    Wasn't it only a manifesto commitment in 2017?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861

    eristdoof said:

    dr_spyn said:

    That petition has signatures from all over the world, 9,000+ in France, 3 from British Antarctic Territiory, 34 from Iceland, 28 from Chile, 30 from Croatia. Good to see that internet access is so good.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157.json

    That is hardly a shock, as British citizens overseas have the right to vote in British elections.
    Not all of them. Labour curtailed that right. After 15 years you lose it.
    Straw Man: You cannot criticise that some overseas people have signed a petition when some overseas people have the right to vote.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,049
    RobD said:

    When is the Tory conference? I want to be out of the country for it! The English nationalism on display will be vomit-inducing.

    29th September - 2nd October.
    They are going to need a lot of police.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542

    How much of a squeeze do we think Boris can apply to that 13% Brexit party number now that he's clearly pivioted towards no deal ?

    Knowing where that 13% is lcoated is vital to understanding how the election plays out.

    Does anyone think we're not going to have an election this year ?

    UNS on that YouGov has the Tories taking seats from the SNP in Scotland :-D That goes to show just how pointless it is to apply UNS to the current polling. I don’t know what the solution is, but anyone relying on polls as being anything more than broadly indicative right now is a fool. For me the key number is what the anti/pro No Deal blocs are getting. What’s interesting is that it’s broadly the same among all pollsters: the anti one is in a 53%-55% band. What I don’t think the polling is able to tell us is how that might translate into tactical votes once we do get to election time. I suspect that yesterday’s events have made such voting more likely and that the more the anti-No Deal parties work together, the more likely it will become.

    The key is how much more Labour votes switch to Lib Dems than Tory ones are lost to the Brexit Party, all relative to 2017, in Labour marginals. That's where Conservatives will pick up seats. If it's a smallish difference, Conservative gains will be balanced by losses to Lib Dems and SNP. If it's a big difference, Labour will collapse and the Conservatives will get a good majority.

    What's not happening right now is any move between Labour and the Conservatives, which is the normal pattern of a GE
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Roger said:

    Out of this morass you would expect a leader to appear though It's difficult to see where from. Johnson has cleaved out for himself an ungovernable country. A factory closes an airline goes bust a sudden influx of immigrants, It's all Johnson's fault. Playing the tough guy might impress the Sun and Express or work in 'Dirty Harry but this is real life and there are some very angry people out there.

    I really hope you are right, and that a leader will emerge to lead the UK back to sanity.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    Pulpstar said:

    Why 2 nights when we're down to 10 ?

    Ten people on the same stage was a bit noisy, I think everyone would appreciate it if the candidates had the time to develop a thought.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Nigelb said:

    nichomar said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Johnson has told us - and I quote directly here - that No Deal will be “easily manageable”. We will see. If it isn’t, voters will remember that he did say it and that he shut down the Parliament they elected to secure it.

    What I want to know is why the VONC wasn't tabled immediately? Surely it'd have a fair chance of passing.
    There wasn't a majority for it before the recess. It can't be tabled during a recess. The suspension means we're heading for another recess. So the question is whether there's a majority next week.

    Issues are:

    * It needs Tory rebels
    * Tory rebels would prefer to legislate to instruct Johnson to seek an extension. But it's not clear there's time next week to pass that, especially as Government loyalists can filibuster it in the Lords. After prorogation, the Bill falls and would have to start again.
    * A VONC that fails will strengthen Johnson.
    * A VONC that succeeds without an alternative PM lined up leads directly to the Shambolic Rebels vs Heroic PM election that Johnson wants

    The way through is therefore:

    1. Try to seize the agenda for legislation next week.
    2. If it doesn't pass, consider a VONC on Thursday (but worry about point 4)
    3. More probably, introduce a VONC in mid-October AND agree with a budding caretaker PM to seek an extension to Oct 31 while a referendum or an election is held.

    Agreeing the caretaker and agreeing whether his job is to call a referendum or an election first is the tricky bit. I think next week is too soon for that, but it might well work in mid-October.
    Parliament was heading for another recess anyway for the conference season, proroguing it made very little difference in that respect.
    The rebel’s were considering voting against the conference recess the prorogation has removed that possibility producing the challenge NP lays out, it is a five week shutdown and cleverly played by the Tory media that it’s only five days, don’t forget one day for queens speech and five days of debate also eat into the available time.
    A Queens speech setting out the program of a PM without a mandate, and quite likely to be voted down.
    After which I know not I assume FTPA no confidence 14 days unless new pm identified and given confidence?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136


    * A VONC that succeeds without an alternative PM lined up leads directly to the Shambolic Rebels vs Heroic PM election that Johnson wants

    If a VONC passes next week without parliament indicating a successor, does the prorogation evaporate while the clock ticks down to the election or can parliament keep sitting for a couple of weeks while it gets its shit together?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    eristdoof said:

    nichomar said:

    eristdoof said:

    dr_spyn said:

    That petition has signatures from all over the world, 9,000+ in France, 3 from British Antarctic Territiory, 34 from Iceland, 28 from Chile, 30 from Croatia. Good to see that internet access is so good.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157.json

    That is hardly a shock, as British citizens overseas have the right to vote in British elections.
    Not all of them. Labour curtailed that right. After 15 years you lose it.
    It doesn’t ask how long you’ve been away although you do need a U.K. format postcode for the vote to go through, I used the one on which my registration is based but said I was in Spain. It’s not as easy as people claim to cheat the petition, you might think you can by multiple signatures and silly names being accepted but they are cleaned and checked for multiple signatures from one in address etc. yes it can be signed by 16 year olds but so what if they are motivated to do so. As I said yesterday you can use the same email address twice as many couples like us share the one so I signed on behalf of my wife.
    Are you sure that you need a UK Postcode? I put Country=Germany and my German postcode which was not flagged as a problem, and the confirmaiton Email came through.

    I don't want to sign twice as that feeds the distractors, but if my "first signature" wasn't counted then I have a UK Postcode I can use.

    Last time it would not take my Spanish post code so didn’t try this time
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Roger said:

    Out of this morass you would expect a leader to appear though It's difficult to see where from. Johnson has cleaved out for himself an ungovernable country. A factory closes an airline goes bust a sudden influx of immigrants, It's all Johnson's fault. Playing the tough guy might impress the Sun and Express or work in 'Dirty Harry but this is real life and there are some very angry people out there.

    Never mind Rog, it won't affect an ex pat like you... Do you get paid in Euro's?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Just one more example of the Leave prospectus being falsified.
This discussion has been closed.