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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The flaw in going into an election about “the will of the peop
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The flaw in going into an election about “the will of the people” is that those thinking Brexit was wrong have a 6% lead
This polling Tracker from YouGov has been asked at least twice a month since the 2016 referendum and the big trend is that there has been a shift from those thinking Brexit was right to those thinking that brexit was wrong.
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We don't know what it was back then, because the Leave Campaign pretty much disavowed the idea at the time. We do however have a pretty good idea what it is now, so we can judge from that how much difficulty BJ would have at a GE, whether before or after Brexit.
As I correctly identified on here on the day of the announcement, that was the beginning of the end of Theresa May's majority and Ruth Davidson was heavily involved in the fiasco...
Okay, on topic, let’s not get sidetracked here: There’s only one action very top of Boris to do list, whats the alternate plan for the backstop. Boris has to turn round that 6 point deficit. He has to make brexit right. He has to make brexit work.
The backstop is there to avoid a hard border across Ireland when UK and EU are operating different customs regimes. The hard border not only breaks treaties signed up to by the UK government, in practice it will become focal for protest, likely end up with British troops manning it to protect it. The previous PMs negotiation came up with this backstop, did not come up with an alternative even in face of mortal destruction of her political career. Boris governments official policy is not “we don’t like the backstop so no backstop” the only honest policy and realistic negotiation is an alternative plan to be agreed with EU replacing proposed backstop, indeed something Boris with customary oomph agreed to have settled in just 30 days last week accepting it was up to Britain to provide a solution, he said he was "more than happy" with the "blistering timetable" Merkel had set out.
So Boris, the EU heads of state and negotiators, the British people, infact the whole world is waiting to hear your plan for alternative backstop, your timetable is ticking down. Where’s your backstop alternative?
Guess it would have to Corbyn though. He's less of a proven liar and he is not actively selling his country down the river, yet.
There is also Philip K Dick's "The Man in the High Castle" (the book, not the trashy TV version) in which the Nazis run Europe and East of the Rockies and there is very little to reccommend the fascist SoB's
With a small majority Corbyn is the least worst choice.
In a hung parliament, hopefully someone else can come to the fore.
A monarch is not required to be a patriot.
Understandable.
I wake up to find Brexit has driven a stalwart Tory yeoman like Big G to flirt with republicanism!
Vladimir Vladimirovich must be laughing his manly tits off!
Burgessian said:
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Definitely a huge loss.
However as she says, the election successes pale into insignificance compared to IndyRef, and this decision puts her in a good position to play a major role in any future IndyRef, with her credibility untarnished by Brexit/Boris.
Could be quite a smart move.
And, actually, I'm quite sure she is genuine about the family considerations.
Bollox and already well tarnished, another one defeated by their blind opposition to SNP rather than having aspirations and policies for Scotland. Will have a think tank / cushy public service number lined up for sure. She is not stupid and can see that she has no chance of going anywhere in politics in Scotland and now that UK is a desert for her she is off, only thing she was ever interested in was promoting herself.
Then get the public to vote them off one by one.
Gary Lineker would probably walk it!
The first of Labour and Tories to offer a mainstream, inclusive manifesto and leadership shall win a landslide, but that is probably two or three GEs away.
They are very divided nation with lots of fundamental untackled problems, and a head of state who is a politician widely hated outside his base.
Sad.
There is a definite part of me that wants this to happen, but it's childishness and the reality wouldn't be funny.
Ruth Davidson has done a lot for the union [and I say that as an opponent of the union] she should be recognised and respected for it. Even though I was on opposite sides to her [and the bulk of my party] during the referendum I could respect her for it.
Just because Brexit is more important than the union doesn't change that.
In the 'which party would you vote for tomorrow' question, would not vote was 10%, and don't know 17%.
Bit less than 36%...
https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1167013357620215809
She was also responsible for some great wining bets and tips, the 8/1 @AlastairMeeks tipped on election day on the SNP to lose their majority in 2016 was great as was [legendary modesty klaxon] the 20/1 winner I tipped on the Tories winning 9.5 or more seats in Scotland at GE2017.
*Her joke in 2016 about the conservatives massive Johnson pulling out is burned on my memory.
The trouble with saying “well he won’t deliver” is that it’s rather hard to sustain that message AND attack him for doing everything he can, by fair means or foul, to deliver Brexit.
https://twitter.com/F1/status/1166983828675747845
Wrong 41, right 47 when rounded to 100% total 47 - 53 rounded.
Taking the last 4 polls from " https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election " source currently the leave vote is split 33-14 Tory/Brexit averaging out. Kantar is better for the Tories but lets ignore it as an outlier of what might be possible if Johnson runs a good campaign and hoovers the Nige vote. The split there is 42-5, still summing to 47%.
The remain vote is split 7 Green, 18 LD, 23 Lab, 4 SNP, 1 Plaid.
We know SNP support is solid, so the 5% nationalist vote (Ex NI) won't change so much. Which means we're looking at 47-48 for the potential Tory & Lab pools.
Green support is likely soft, but the remainder is Lib Dem votes that Labour can eat into, and Brexit votes the Tories can munch on. As of now the Tories are 9 pts ahead in this analysis, not votes cast but polling, the best we have, - it might be a smaller pool but the margin above Labour is very very important as there are scores of Lab-Tory marginals in determining seat count.
Unless Labour can really get a squeeze on, they're not in a great place.
Let me put it this way. Britain is a constitutional monarchy has direct rule of Northern Ireland from Westminster. Patriots love that (I don't particularly like the word patriot either btw). They love their country. They might choose to fight for it. But they can't then say they want to fundamentally change its constitution while still loving it because then what do they love about it?
Does anyone believe that the world's most expensive healthcare system will work well with the NHS?
The leader of the Scottish Labour Party, Richard Leonard, has reached an agreement with Jeremy Corbyn over the timing of any second Scottish independence referendum under a UK Labour government.
After weeks of internal rows about a second vote, the two leaders have reached a deal that would see no referendum granted in the “formative years” of an incoming Labour government.
However, Mr Leonard last night said that he and Mr Corbyn had reached an accord on the issue. He said: “Jeremy and I have agreed that, during the formative years of an incoming Labour government, we would not sanction a Section 30 order to allow a further referendum on Scottish independence to take place.”
If MPs want to stop Johnson's no-deal, it is high time they decided what they want instead.
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-08-29/if-mps-vote-for-the-6-month-brexit-delay-they-want-johnson-will-ignore-them/
Hardly a surprise - he's a decent driver who doesn't rock the boat, and only Wolff favoured a change.
It’s a view...
Where you and I might differ is that I think the Union could win a referendum on that basis, and would do better sold as a positive without all the silly “you’ll fall into the sea if you leave” nonsense, but it should be tested. One referendum per mandate by winning a majority at Holyrood seems fair to me.
No because the total fairly or very bad for no deal is 49% which is still short of a majority and is only slightly more than the 48% who voted for remain in 2016 and if you add all the people who aren't opposed to no deal or may's deal or soft brexit you get 136% which is 34 times the majority that leave got over remain in 2016
How true