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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Summary : August 2019
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Summary : August 2019
Votes Cast, % Share, Change in votes and Seats : August 2019 Liberal Democrats 6,218 votes (33.94% +5.23% on last time) winning 5 seats (+1 seat on last time) Conservatives 5,362 votes (29.27% -2.66% on last time) winning 2 seats (-1 on last time) Labour 2,951 votes (16.11% -10.04% on last time) winning 0 seats (-1 on last time) Scottish National Party 1,582 votes (8.63% +2.88% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time) Local Independents 824 votes (4.50%) winning 1 seat (+1 on last time) Green Party 779 votes (4.25% -0.05% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) Independent candidates 333 votes (1.82%) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) Brexit Party 163 votes (0.89%) winning 0 seats United Kingdom Independence Party 68 votes (0.53% -1.88% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) Other Parties 12 votes (0.07% -0.78% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) Liberal Democrat lead of 856 votes (4.67%) on a swing of 3.95% from Con to Lib Dem
Comments
Governments can spend their way to victory or mitigating defeat. They can cut taxes, increase spending or just advertise themselves to victory.
In the 2010 General election and the period leading up to it there was a government advertising blitz that was within the rules but ethically speaking questionable. Should Government advertising be used in the run up to a General Election in a way to try and boost the incumbent’s possibility of electoral victory?
The same dilemma approaches now as the Government, which has not been directed elected by the people embarks on an advertising blitz, which has the potential to coincide with the calling of a General Election. I think an unelected Government is plain wrong to promote No Deal at public expense when the real reason for doing so is a blatant attempt to boost the Governments polling.
The media output of the Brexit supporting press has been producing stories on a daily basis to boost Boris Johnson and hence support the Tories. Indeed, the propaganda has gone into overdrive.
I have come to the conclusion given the misuse of public funds by the Conservative party for blatant propaganda on No Deal that the only way to deal with the PM is to remove him from office rather than trying to change legislation.
But the punning was just awesomeness.
As for delays on the way to Old Trafford, perhaps you could suggest they find a way to stop Cummins, Smith and Labushagne from getting to the ground so Australia have to play Marsh, Bancroft and Wade?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7413661/Tory-Labour-parties-recruitment-drive-campaign-staff-marginal-areas.html
Worth noting the Mercedes had better pace, but difficult passing, and was kinder on its tyres. Rather close at the end.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/09/belgium-post-race-analysis-2019.html
Wow - quite the pincer movement in the shires.
At the wrong address...
But well done on the Hamilton tip - an excellent and probably otherwise unidentified bet.
"However, the site shows that not everyone is affected by Brexit. British nationals who live and work in the UK, do not run a business and have no plans to travel abroad are told to simply sit back and relax: “Based on your responses, you do not need to take any action to prepare for the Brexit deadline of 31 October 2019.”"
CDU -32
AfD - 27.5
Linke 10.5
Green -9
SPD 8
non one else over 5%
Because otherwise that's a hell of a confusing result.
Hunkering down in a Mexican exile?
SPD - 27.5
AfD - 22.5
CDU - 15.5
Linke - 11
Green -10
Free Voters - 5
FDP 4.8
but Merkel has managed to top poll in Saxony which was looking shaky two weeks ago
Of course we await some actual counting, this is just guessing so far.!
Anyway, as ever, dinner calls, and I have cannelloni to stuff.
I think SPD can be moderately happy in BB as they managed to hold onto 1st place comfortably and probably just as important the national switch from SPD to Greens is minimal, infact I reckon most of the Greens' gains will have come from die Linke.
However the result shows how much the East diverges from the West.
and in Sachsen the CDU wil surely be in the state government and have the Ministerpresident.
No food, seriously?
I would also be willing to accept this, now, as a compromise to settle the issue. Revisit if needs be in 10-15 years time to see how it's working.
Is there still hope?
#Carling4Tennents4indyref2
But if all the continental beer drinkers have to make the switch there might be shortages and I might die
Yep I agree with your prognosis, SPD/CDU/Linke would numerically be slightly stronger than SPD/CDU/Green in BB, but the CDU is not going to work with die Linke.
The elephant in the room is, how long can the "established" parties last before a state allows a coalition with the AfD?
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1168204231872040961?s=20
BJ and Brexiteers have gone too far down the road of extremism to do a EEA-EFTA IMO. I would support that as it would at least be a sensible compromise. But the Brexit supporting media are never going to ware that nor will Farage and co.
I still think being in the EU is better than being outside it or a 'vassal state' deal. I think Brexit is a bit like HS2, pointless and a waste of money...
It removes us from all the political aspects of the EU, including crime and justice, CAP and CFP and gives us an emergency brake on free movement.
I suspect - at this stage - it might require ratification in a second referendum, however.
I think that is something they should be ashamed of not proud of.
So remember Yoons
#Carling4Tennents4indyref2
And English comrades have their own hashtag with tennents being pretty much unavailable in England-
#Whiskey4Whisky4indyref2.
*Pretty much what Norman Lamb proposed after the referendum, and not very far from the Labour position of those like Starmer and co. Too late now.
(beer before wine and I'll be fine?)
#Whiskey4Whisky4indyref2
Didnt want to debate with rival candidates
Doesnt want parliamentary scrutiny so suspends parliament
Doesnt want to deal with Gauke so pretends he doesnt have time
Yet leavers still assume he is a great communicator who will run a fabulous campaign.
A coward who hides is not leadership material and that will become apparent in any GE, as it was with May.
Sir Boris bravely turned and fled,
Brave, Brave Brave Sir Boris...
We shall probably end up No Dealing. A US trade deal will turn out to be a chimera. And the imbalances in the UK economy will bite us hard.
A difficult 2 to 3 years will either be followed by us accepting something that looks just like the Withdrawal Agreement (so, we had a nasty recession all for nothing), or a true socialist government is elected, as the all previous problems were due to lack of government intervention.