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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Breaking: The Conservative Party
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Breaking: The Conservative Party
That sounds you’re hearing is the Conservative party breaking apart (and a general election hurtling towards us) https://t.co/2Sk1S9ips6
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Yes the government's handling of Brexit right now is a matter of confidence, as Major's handling of Maastricht was.
Being too afraid of a negative majority doesn't mean that you still have a majority by turning a blind eye to rebellions on confidence matters, it just means you're not facing up to reality. It is time for the Conservatives and the Country to face up to reality. If that means a new election and Rory, Hammond, Gauke etc replaced as candidates at that election then so be it. Just as it would have meant in 1993 had the bastards of 1993 not backed down.
The 1993-bastards backed down. Let's see if the 2019-bastards like Rory and Hammond etc do so or not.
If Corbyn backs further extension and continues to block Brexit while refusing to commit to back Remain in all circumstances Boris can just lie back and watch his lead grow as he continues to squeeze the Brexit Party vote while Corbyn risks seeing Labour fall to 3rd behind the LDs
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1168275412654481409
Clearly best for the opposition to deny Johnson the election so he has to carry on without the MPs he's deselected.
If he doesn't he'll constantly be defeated in Parliament, he won't be able to Brexit on 31 October (with or without a deal) and Con support will then go to the Brexit Party.
BoZo is still PM after Oct 31st, we are still in the EU and he can't pass any legislation.
Cummings is a genius...
Either way Boris and Cummings have him right where they want him. If Corbyn continues to push for further extension dozens of Labour Leave seats will fall to the Tories
As long as Corbyn sees sense. On past form, that is one heck of an ask.
Still - it's nothing new - when they were off their heads on cocaine at the same time as preaching the War On Drugs, it's pretty obvious they thought laws were for other people, not them.
Yet we've left.
Illegally.
But we've left. Because the House of Commons can't find an alternative to vote on. And won't put themselves to the voters. Because they will be fired.
This is your Brave New World?
Lib Dems: Bollocks to Brexit
Labour: Bollocks to an election, we want to stay in opposition.
Ummm . . . it is in his gift.
That 11% lead is for the complete current tory party including Hammond, Clarke and the many Tory voters who are only slightly right of centre.
The current set up cannot rely on their support at all if 20+ no-no-deal tory MPs are thrown out of the party this week.
Diehard electioners. They never learn.
Boris and Cummings will deliver Brexit no matter what the cost
Stewart, Hammond, Gauke and others repeatedly voted for Brexit on the basis of a deal, as set out in the Tory manifesto and the promises of the Leave campaign. They did not rebel
The only bastards here are those now in government who rebelled, some of them repeatedly, and who are being disloyal to the manifesto they were elected on and the promises they made during the campaign.
They have no moral authority whatsoever to criticise others.
Still, if they do withdraw the whip the government will no longer have a majority.
Good night
If it is just 1 in 6 of them they are in big trouble.
They have ensured their side is united while the Remain side is split and riven with division
Boris isn't repeating her mistake.
And if any Tory Remainers do depart they will be departing for Swinson's LDs NOT Corbyn Labour, potentially pushing Labour into 3rd place as a result
Good night again!
In order to defeat Boris he needs to be removed. You can't change him.
After all he managed to get votes from Tory MPs who wanted to leave with no Deal and those who wanted a Deal.
An election won't really solve anything. A second referendum of some sort is a much better option.
This is a matter of confidence.
When can I expect to be sent to the PoW camp?
Fight your corner but retain perspective
If the backbench legislation says 'pm must seek extension' then Boris can go and ask for something so short it's immaterial. A day, or five minutes. Hardly worth firing 20 MPs over that.
If it says 'must also accept any extension offered' or 'must revoke in the absence of agreed extension', it won't pass anyway. So no point firing here either.
So what will that draft legislation say?
Johnson is choosing the route most likely to get Remain voters doing whatever is necessary to stop him.
Nabavi has explained how.
There's a simpler path open to those who lack confidence in Boris.
The courts may even rule it illegal.
They are limbering up to take on the US and China, they can't show weakness anytime some mid-size nation tries to take them on.
Major wasn't a coward either. Boris is doing the same as Major.