Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?
Really?
My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.
It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
The next paragraph is irrelevant. They are taking momentous power from the British executive, and simply handing it to Brussels
What if Brussels decides we should have two years? Three? Five? Eighty? We won’t have a say. We will have to accept whatever they deem appropriate, as the alternative will likely be no deal, and we know parliament does not want THAT.
It is treachery. It is asking Britain’s neighbors to come round and shag the wife, “but please keep the noise down”
If the rebels manage to pass the measure blocking No Deal is Boris going to regret the prorogation?
He may need more parliamentary time than remains until 9th September in order to repeal the FTPA.
Why would this parliament repeal the FTPA?
Well that was just one option for bringing about an early GE being mooted earlier. But tbf it sounds like Corbyn would support the FTPA 2/3rds vote anyway.
Of course he would as will all LOTO always ever, unless they had the Parliamentary numbers to get a majority already which is the only time the FTPA makes a difference.
We get this nonsense about 2/3rds all the time but the second the PM stands at the podium and says we are having an election, we are having an election. The oppositions votes are a mere formality.
Yes, I think you're right. In hindsight it didn't offer the protection to junior coalition parties it was intended to.
It did if they were in a kingmaker position.
The idea was that Cameron couldn't just rat on Clegg at a moment of his choosing as if he did Clegg could go to Labour under the FTPA and make them kings.
Not very often we'll see a party that could sit with either major party be in a kingmaker position, so it is just like a fireguard made out of paper the rest of the time.
When it comes to a general election both Labour and Tory parties will be losing votes overall in comparison to 2017. it depends on where they lose those votes as to where they lose seats.
If Tory / Labour lose votes to Brexit/LibDem in their safer seats then there will be little change from last time, but there will be some, and it would depend on how this churn turns out in what happens.
If Tory / Labour lose votes equally in their marginals see the last paragraph.
What I suspect will happen is that both parties will lose votes and seats in Scotland to the SNP. I can see a 50 - 56 seat SNP again depending on how the Lib Dems will do. I wouldn't put it past the Lib Dems from standing down in seats that they are not going to win in Scotland and recommend voting for the SNP in those seats.
The other thing I suspect will happen is that the LibDems will gain votes in the former Lib Dem seats where Cameron squeezed them so effectively in 2015. This may be aided by an agreement with Greens / PC.
the interesting set of seats is the Con/Lab marginals where Con could gain in leave areas and Labour in Remain.
The LDs will not stand down for the SNP, they are firmly anti Scottish independence under Swinson
It all depends on how badly they want to stop brexit. in a Brexit election where a Tory MP would be a No-Deal vote (because that will be in the manifesto) would they rather have an ally or an enemy in parliament. These are strange days and I can see it happening (not that it is on the cards)
If the rebels manage to pass the measure blocking No Deal is Boris going to regret the prorogation?
He may need more parliamentary time than remains until 9th September in order to repeal the FTPA.
Why would this parliament repeal the FTPA?
Well that was just one option for bringing about an early GE being mooted earlier. But tbf it sounds like Corbyn would support the FTPA 2/3rds vote anyway.
Of course he would as will all LOTO always ever, unless they had the Parliamentary numbers to get a majority already which is the only time the FTPA makes a difference.
We get this nonsense about 2/3rds all the time but the second the PM stands at the podium and says we are having an election, we are having an election. The oppositions votes are a mere formality.
Yes, I think you're right. In hindsight it didn't offer the protection to junior coalition parties it was intended to.
It did if they were in a kingmaker position.
The idea was that Cameron couldn't just rat on Clegg at a moment of his choosing as if he did Clegg could go to Labour under the FTPA and make them kings.
Not very often we'll see a party that could sit with either major party be in a kingmaker position, so it is just like a fireguard made out of paper the rest of the time.
Yes fair point - maybe FTPA is not so bad after all?
Will Johnson stand from Uxbridge ? If he does, then it would be fun.
LDs and Greens should let Labour have a clear run in Uxbridge.
I expect there will be a lot of seats which are a remain party v Tory v bxp - it’s the same choice but you have to leave it late enough that the bxp don’t stand down you want them on the ballot paper
I reckon there are 12 certain rebels. Someone like Grieve is not going to fold now. But the rebels probably need 17 to be sure of winning, unless Corbyn can convince some of his own rebels that an election is more important than Brexit.
A song I've written anyway, to be released on the day (should it ever come) that this whole project collapses under the weight of its contradictions.
Channeling Don Mclean -
A long long time ago I can still remember how the Brexit used to make me smile And I knew if it had its chance that it would make our people dance and we’d be very happy for a while But parliament would always dither, instead of trying to deliver Bad news on our doorstep, we couldn’t take one more step I’m not ashamed to say I cried when I read that even Boris lied And now it seems our hands are tied The day the Brexit died
So bye bye, it was not Do or Die Brexit stolen from the People, what a poke in the eye Those good ole boys eating pasties and pies, singing all the liberal traitors must die
I met a friend who voted Leave and asked her if she still believed, but she just shrugged and turned away I went on down to the Poundland store, where I’d heard the rumblings weeks before, and a man there said the bastards had to pay In Weatherspoons the punters screamed, they hurled abuse and no longer dreamed Of chains of Europe broken, those words they all were token And the man they trusted like a priest – thought Nigel would surely fight at least He’d caught the last plane for Belize The day that Brexit died
And so we’re singing …
Bye bye, it was not Do or Die Brexit stolen from the People, what a poke in the eye Those good ole boys eating pasties and pies, saying all the liberal traitors must die Saying ALL the liberal traitors must die!
:-)
So I spent the afternoon with a Belfast based CEO from agribusiness
“Fuck it, we should go for a hard border. It will be fine.”
(He then started talking about how we would all be healthier if we add more Yorkshire rhubarb...)
FTPA lays down the exact words of the motion which must be passed, so it can't be validly amended. (FTPA 2 (2) ).
In all cases the PM recommends (fixes) the date of the GE which HM appoints. (FTPA 2(7) ).
I think it can be amended, but then becomes inoperative in terms of triggering the election under the act. Which might actually be quite clever tactics.
Btw I made it to the US and denied myself internet for the whole week. Did I miss much?
The only political fact I established is that there are very few Trump supporters on the QM2 (John Sopel took a show of hands in one of his talks). Indeed there were Americans on the ship returning from house hunting in France in case he gets re-elected.
Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?
Really?
My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.
It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
It's a tactical mistake by Hammond et al - a sign of political ineptitude - but won't change any votes in the Commons.
However, might there be an issue with registration?
ie Deadline for registering to vote will / may be before many students arrive for the start of the University term.
They can just register online. Not a problem.
Of course they can. But the point is that many won't.
In the past there have been big registration drives on campuses. This time, new students will have to take the trouble to do it themselves in isolation whilst still at their parents homes.
They'll also need to have their student address. Not sure if you can register in advance of moving into an address?
I am going to be neutral on this. I voted remain but want a deal
I did not vote for Boris and dislike Cummings with a passion
I blame ERG and others for torpoeding TM sensible deal
However, a GE is needed ro smoke out Boris support and to negate the argument that he is unelected (if he should win)
Corbyn needs testing again and in a very different arena to 2017
Jo Swinson's time has come and I expect the lib dems will do very well
I do not share HYUFD opinion Boris will win a majority as he will lose most of Scoland, London and the South though Corbyn is likely to be caught in a pincer movement and lose the most seats
Conclusion their is a real possibility of a labour, lib dem, snp, plaid coalition under another leader who will agree a referendum and that referendum is likely to win due to the change in demography and the young people able to vote
Caveat - IMHO
I don’t wish to be rough with you BG, but you can’t keep making sweeping statements like “Corbyn is likely to be caught in a pincer movement and lose the most seats”. I know it’s below the belt to say this, but that’s like no better than HY. Citation is needed that convinces us of that sweeping statement. Name them. At least Name the constituency’s going red to blue. Name the Labour MPs losing to Boris’s right wing Tory Party.
It won’t happen on the day because you misunderstand what leave is to british business and British politics. The bit you (and so many others in this chat room) are missing here is how being pro EU helped the Party of business (The Conservatives) big time in elections over the last 40 years. The Tories won’t have that on their side in this snap election.
At the same time, In the eyes of many leave voters Socialism is the big winner from Brexit, because EU membership squattened it. Labour leave areas had people coming out the woodwork to vote leave because they are Hard bitten lefties. Many of these voters didn’t vote for Blair or Brown because new labour were the party of business and EU, not interested in bringing back socialism. And you, like HY, counting all leave voters for Boris and Farage in a GE?
How much of an over estimation is that? I don’t have a huge group of mates, but I must have about half a dozen die hard leave long before 2016 actually who are always Labour in GE, as they were last time.
Can we Name the constituency’s going red to blue. the Labour MPs losing to Boris’s right wing Tory Party?
Could Rory take Penrith and the Border as an independent?
That's a really interesting question - and I'm unsure anyone can give a definitive answer to. It's very solid Conservative territory, but Rory has name recognition (both positive and negative). It's interesting that Willie Whitelaw previously held his seat.
I can say the same about my own constituency: what chance does Heidi Allen have?
(My own view is she stands little chance as an independent; more as a Lib Dem or an independent where the Lib Dems stand down.)
Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?
Really?
My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.
It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
The next paragraph is irrelevant. They are taking momentous power from the British executive, and simply handing it to Brussels
What if Brussels decides we should have two years? Three? Five? Eighty? We won’t have a say. We will have to accept whatever they deem appropriate, as the alternative will likely be no deal, and we know parliament does not want THAT.
It is treachery. It is asking Britain’s neighbors to come round and shag the wife, “but please keep the noise down”
Parliament gets a say. They have taken back control.
Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?
Really?
My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.
It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
I wonder how Labour MPs in strongly Leave seats will feel about this. Signing up to a clause compelling the PM to do what he's told by the EU will not be well received by a lot of voters in their constuencies.
Whereas Conservative voters often have a credible second choice in their constituencies, Labour voters in seats that were strongly brexit often live in a one party state.
I don’t believe that there has been a single case ever of a Prime Minister advising a monarch not to give royal assent to a bill that both Houses of Parliament have passed. So what is being hinted at is literally without precedent.
I don’t really understand why anyone thinks the Prime Minister even has a role in this process, never mind a veto.
*Puts on nerdiest glasses, licks finger and puts it in the air*
1708 Scottish Militia Bill. Passed both houses but the French were then sighted sailing to Scotland so Queen Anne decided not to trust the Scots with guns.
There was no Prime Minister then.
Harley - although he was called Lord High Treasurer - was effectively PM
However, might there be an issue with registration?
ie Deadline for registering to vote will / may be before many students arrive for the start of the University term.
They can just register online. Not a problem.
Of course they can. But the point is that many won't.
In the past there have been big registration drives on campuses. This time, new students will have to take the trouble to do it themselves in isolation whilst still at their parents homes.
They'll also need to have their student address. Not sure if you can register in advance of moving into an address?
Why not? Who’s going to know? Regardless, most student tenancies start in September. At least they do in Newcastle.
Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?
Really?
My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.
It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
The next paragraph is irrelevant. They are taking momentous power from the British executive, and simply handing it to Brussels
What if Brussels decides we should have two years? Three? Five? Eighty? We won’t have a say. We will have to accept whatever they deem appropriate, as the alternative will likely be no deal, and we know parliament does not want THAT.
It is treachery. It is asking Britain’s neighbors to come round and shag the wife, “but please keep the noise down”
FTPA lays down the exact words of the motion which must be passed, so it can't be validly amended. (FTPA 2 (2) ).
In all cases the PM recommends (fixes) the date of the GE which HM appoints. (FTPA 2(7) ).
I think it can be amended, but then becomes inoperative in terms of triggering the election under the act. Which might actually be quite clever tactics.
Btw I made it to the US and denied myself internet for the whole week. Did I miss much?
The only political fact I established is that there are very few Trump supporters on the QM2 (John Sopel took a show of hands in one of his talks). Indeed there were Americans on the ship returning from house hunting in France in case he gets re-elected.
Jon Sopel's book "If Only They Didn't Speak English" is excellent.
Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?
Really?
My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.
It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
The next paragraph is irrelevant. They are taking momentous power from the British executive, and simply handing it to Brussels
What if Brussels decides we should have two years? Three? Five? Eighty? We won’t have a say. We will have to accept whatever they deem appropriate, as the alternative will likely be no deal, and we know parliament does not want THAT.
It is treachery. It is asking Britain’s neighbors to come round and shag the wife, “but please keep the noise down”
Parliament gets a say. They have taken back control.
They don’t get a say. They just get to nod and agree to whatever our Brussels overlords decide we deserve. An incredible, mind boggling own goal from Remainers. Watch what the Tories do with this.
Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?
Really?
My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.
It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?
Really?
My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.
It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
The next paragraph is irrelevant. They are taking momentous power from the British executive, and simply handing it to Brussels
What if Brussels decides we should have two years? Three? Five? Eighty? We won’t have a say. We will have to accept whatever they deem appropriate, as the alternative will likely be no deal, and we know parliament does not want THAT.
It is treachery. It is asking Britain’s neighbors to come round and shag the wife, “but please keep the noise down”
This provision is quite extraordinary.Two dyas to reject an alternative extension proposed by the EU. What if Parliament is not sitting?
Could Rory take Penrith and the Border as an independent?
Rory ex-Tory from Balamory
It would make it the first interesting election in Penrith and Border for some time; personally I think the Tories (whether Rory or not) will get it. It is not great Lib Dem territory, and is a leave constituency. Full of moderate, one nation Tories however with fond recollections of William Whitelaw, of blessed memory, who managed not to dance with 100 Santas in Penrith - a golden moment in Rory's varied history.
Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?
Really?
My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.
It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
The next paragraph is irrelevant. They are taking momentous power from the British executive, and simply handing it to Brussels
What if Brussels decides we should have two years? Three? Five? Eighty? We won’t have a say. We will have to accept whatever they deem appropriate, as the alternative will likely be no deal, and we know parliament does not want THAT.
It is treachery. It is asking Britain’s neighbors to come round and shag the wife, “but please keep the noise down”
This provision is quite extraordinary.Two dyas to reject an alternative extension proposed by the EU. What if Parliament is not sitting?
Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?
Really?
My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.
It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
The next paragraph is irrelevant. They are taking momentous power from the British executive, and simply handing it to Brussels
What if Brussels decides we should have two years? Three? Five? Eighty? We won’t have a say. We will have to accept whatever they deem appropriate, as the alternative will likely be no deal, and we know parliament does not want THAT.
It is treachery. It is asking Britain’s neighbors to come round and shag the wife, “but please keep the noise down”
Parliament gets a say. They have taken back control.
They don’t get a say. They just get to nod and agree to whatever our Brussels overlords decide we deserve. An incredible, mind boggling own goal from Remainers. Watch what the Tories do with this.
We’ll watch, and clearly see that Europe offers an extension, and Parliament has to approve it. Are you pissed again?
Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?
Really?
My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.
It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
The next paragraph is irrelevant. They are taking momentous power from the British executive, and simply handing it to Brussels
What if Brussels decides we should have two years? Three? Five? Eighty? We won’t have a say. We will have to accept whatever they deem appropriate, as the alternative will likely be no deal, and we know parliament does not want THAT.
It is treachery. It is asking Britain’s neighbors to come round and shag the wife, “but please keep the noise down”
Parliament gets a say. They have taken back control.
You really don't get it. It's the wrong sort of control. It's the sort of control that hands control to parliament, not the Brexiteers and their followers - whichever country they reside in.
Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?
Really?
My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.
It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
Can we Name the constituency’s going red to blue. the Labour MPs losing to Boris’s right wing Tory Party?
The thing to remember about the next election is that both Labour and Tory will be losing a lot of votes as compared to 2017. what matters is where they lose them. Do the tories lose most of their votes in safe seats to the brexit party, if so they don't lose too many to labour but could gain a lot depending where Labour loses it's votes.
It's not possible to predict particular gains/losses accurately because we don't know the detail enough about how the votes will be lost.
I reckon there are 12 certain rebels. Someone like Grieve is not going to fold now. But the rebels probably need 17 to be sure of winning, unless Corbyn can convince some of his own rebels that an election is more important than Brexit.
Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?
Really?
My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.
It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
The next paragraph is irrelevant. They are taking momentous power from the British executive, and simply handing it to Brussels
What if Brussels decides we should have two years? Three? Five? Eighty? We won’t have a say. We will have to accept whatever they deem appropriate, as the alternative will likely be no deal, and we know parliament does not want THAT.
It is treachery. It is asking Britain’s neighbors to come round and shag the wife, “but please keep the noise down”
This provision is quite extraordinary.Two dyas to reject an alternative extension proposed by the EU. What if Parliament is not sitting?
It can be recalled.
I can tell you that no person in their right mind would leave the fate of this country hanging on that possibility.Another point is what happens if an extension is subject to onerous conditions/do these have to be accepted? This is a minefield.
Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?
Really?
My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.
It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
The next paragraph is irrelevant. They are taking momentous power from the British executive, and simply handing it to Brussels
What if Brussels decides we should have two years? Three? Five? Eighty? We won’t have a say. We will have to accept whatever they deem appropriate, as the alternative will likely be no deal, and we know parliament does not want THAT.
It is treachery. It is asking Britain’s neighbors to come round and shag the wife, “but please keep the noise down”
Parliament gets a say. They have taken back control.
They don’t get a say. They just get to nod and agree to whatever our Brussels overlords decide we deserve. An incredible, mind boggling own goal from Remainers. Watch what the Tories do with this.
Remainers have massively overplayed their hand.
Cummins' war-gaming won't have included them doing something this dumb.
"He is not going to go to Brussels at the behest of Parliament to ask for an extension. It is not going to happen - categorically.
He is not going to do it by email. He is not going to do it by phone call. He is not going to do it by text. He is not going to do it by tweet".
Feels like it should have carried on.
He is not going to do it by second-class post. He is not going to do it in person. He is not going to do it by carrier pigeon. He is not going to do it by semaphore. He is not going to do it by smoke signal...
I am going to be neutral on this. I voted remain but want a deal
I did not vote for Boris and dislike Cummings with a passion
I blame ERG and others for torpoeding TM sensible deal
However, a GE is needed ro smoke out Boris support and to negate the argument that he is unelected (if he should win)
Corbyn needs testing again and in a very different arena to 2017
I do not share HYUFD opinion Boris will win a majority as he will lose most of Scoland, London and the South though Corbyn is likely to be caught in a pincer movement and lose the most seats
Conclusion their is a real possibility of a labour, lib dem, snp, plaid coalition under another leader who will agree a referendum and that referendum is likely to win due to the change in demography and the young people able to vote
Caveat - IMHO
I don’t wish to be rough with you BG, but you can’t keep making sweeping statements like “Corbyn is likely to be caught in a pincer movement and lose the most seats”. I know it’s below the belt to say this, but that’s like no better than HY. Citation is needed that convinces us of that sweeping statement. Name them. At least Name the constituency’s going red to blue. Name the Labour MPs losing to Boris’s right wing Tory Party.
It won’t happen on the day because you misunderstand what leave is to british business and British politics. The bit you (and so many others in this chat room) are missing here is how being pro EU helped the Party of business (The Conservatives) big time in elections over the last 40 years. The Tories won’t have that on their side in this snap election.
At the same time, In the eyes of many leave voters Socialism is the big winner from Brexit, because EU membership squattened it. Labour leave areas had people coming out the woodwork to vote leave because they are Hard bitten lefties. Many of these voters didn’t vote for Blair or Brown because new labour were the party of business and EU, not interested in bringing back socialism. And you, like HY, counting all leave voters for Boris and Farage in a GE?
How much of an over estimation is that? I don’t have a huge group of mates, but I must have about half a dozen die hard leave long before 2016 actually who are always Labour in GE, as they were last time.
Can we Name the constituency’s going red to blue. the Labour MPs losing to Boris’s right wing Tory Party?
In Scotland which has been part of me for over 60 years and I know Scots politics labour are facing virtual extinction
It is commonly accepted labour will pay dearly in leave seats and of course the lib dems will damage both parties with their clear message of remain
You may not like it but I doubt any on here would compare me with HYUFD and I try to express my opinion fairly. Of course you can disagree with it
Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?
Really?
My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.
It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
The next paragraph is irrelevant. They are taking momentous power from the British executive, and simply handing it to Brussels
What if Brussels decides we should have two years? Three? Five? Eighty? We won’t have a say. We will have to accept whatever they deem appropriate, as the alternative will likely be no deal, and we know parliament does not want THAT.
It is treachery. It is asking Britain’s neighbors to come round and shag the wife, “but please keep the noise down”
Parliament gets a say. They have taken back control.
They don’t get a say. They just get to nod and agree to whatever our Brussels overlords decide we deserve. An incredible, mind boggling own goal from Remainers. Watch what the Tories do with this.
We’ll watch, and clearly see that Europe offers an extension, and Parliament has to approve it. Are you pissed again?
Then we’re in agreement. Let this sensible offer from Remainers, to hand over the most vital British executive power to Brussels, be the very centerpiece of the election. Let it be discussed day after day after day. Let everyone enjoy the cleverness of Dominic Grieve and Oliver Letwin.
I am going to be neutral on this. I voted remain but want a deal
I did not vote for Boris and dislike Cummings with a passion
I blame ERG and others for torpoeding TM sensible deal
However, a GE is needed ro smoke out Boris support and to negate the argument that he is unelected (if he should win)
Corbyn needs testing again and in a very different arena to 2017
Jo Swinson's time has come and I e
Caveat - IMHO
I don’t wish to be rough with yarty.
It won’t happen on the day because you misunderstand what leave is to british business and British politics. The bit you (and so many others in this chat room) are missing here is how being pro EU helped the Party of business (The Conservatives) big time in elections over the last 40 years. The Tories won’t have that on their side in this snap election.
At the same time, In the eyes of many leave voters Socialism is the big winner from Brexit, because EU membership squattened it. Labour leave areas had people coming out the woodwork to vote leave because they are Hard bitten lefties. Many of these voters didn’t vote for Blair or Brown because new labour were the party of business and EU, not interested in bringing back socialism. And you, like HY, counting all leave voters for Boris and Farage in a GE?
How much of an over estimation is that? I don’t have a huge group of mates, but I must have about half a dozen die hard leave long before 2016 actually who are always Labour in GE, as they were last time.
Can we Name the constituency’s going red to blue. the Labour MPs losing to Boris’s right wing Tory Party?
On the current swing predicted by Survation, Kensington, Dudley North, Newcastle under Lyme, Canterbury, Keighley, Bishop Auckland, Colne Valley, Warwick and Leamington, Stockton South, Ipswich, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Lincoln, Derby North, Wakefield, Battersea etc amongst the Labour seats to fall to the Tories.
On the current swing predicted by YouGov seats like Wrexham, Stoke on Trent North, Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Blackpool South, Great Grimsby, Darlington, Weaver Vale, Cardiff North, Bolton NE, Scunthorpe and possibly Enfield Southgate would go from red to blue too
Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?
Really?
My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.
It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
The next paragraph is irrelevant. They are taking momentous power from the British executive, and simply handing it to Brussels
What if Brussels decides we should have two years? Three? Five? Eighty? We won’t have a say. We will have to accept whatever they deem appropriate, as the alternative will likely be no deal, and we know parliament does not want THAT.
It is treachery. It is asking Britain’s neighbors to come round and shag the wife, “but please keep the noise down”
This provision is quite extraordinary.Two dyas to reject an alternative extension proposed by the EU. What if Parliament is not sitting?
It can be recalled.
I can tell you that no person in their right mind would leave the fate of this country hanging on that possibility.Another point is what happens if an extension is subject to onerous conditions/do these have to be accepted? This is a minefield.
Thanks for telling me that. BoJo should win about 99% of the vote in the forthcoming GE then.
If the extension is subject to onerous conditions the HoC can reject it.
Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?
Really?
My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.
It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
The next paragraph is irrelevant. They are taking momentous power from the British executive, and simply handing it to Brussels
What if Brussels decides we should have two years? Three? Five? Eighty? We won’t have a say. We will have to accept whatever they deem appropriate, as the alternative will likely be no deal, and we know parliament does not want THAT.
It is treachery. It is asking Britain’s neighbors to come round and shag the wife, “but please keep the noise down”
This provision is quite extraordinary.Two dyas to reject an alternative extension proposed by the EU. What if Parliament is not sitting?
Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?
Really?
My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.
It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
The next paragraph is irrelevant. They are taking momentous power from the British executive, and simply handing it to Brussels
What if Brussels decides we should have two years? Three? Five? Eighty? We won’t have a say. We will have to accept whatever they deem appropriate, as the alternative will likely be no deal, and we know parliament does not want THAT.
It is treachery. It is asking Britain’s neighbors to come round and shag the wife, “but please keep the noise down”
Parliament gets a say. They have taken back control.
They don’t get a say. They just get to nod and agree to whatever our Brussels overlords decide we deserve. An incredible, mind boggling own goal from Remainers. Watch what the Tories do with this.
Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?
Really?
My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.
It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
The next paragraph is irrelevant. They are taking momentous power from the British executive, and simply handing it to Brussels
What if Brussels decides we should have two years? Three? Five? Eighty? We won’t have a say. We will have to accept whatever they deem appropriate, as the alternative will likely be no deal, and we know parliament does not want THAT.
It is treachery. It is asking Britain’s neighbors to come round and shag the wife, “but please keep the noise down”
Parliament gets a say. They have taken back control.
They don’t get a say. They just get to nod and agree to whatever our Brussels overlords decide we deserve. An incredible, mind boggling own goal from Remainers. Watch what the Tories do with this.
Remainers have massively overplayed their hand.
Cummins' war-gaming won't have included them doing something this dumb.
That's the point of putting your opponents off balance and reacting to you in a hurry.
Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?
Really?
My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.
It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
Actually that is incorrect. The next para is of no use unless a minister puts a motion proposing to accept the extension and that is then voted down.That is a nonsense.
There you go again. So all 17 million who voted to Leave sre racists in your eyes. You really are an arrogant prick.
How do you reach the conclusion in your first sentence from what I've written? I've said many times passsim that I know passionate leavers and remainers who are good, moral people - and I know some from both who are on rather dodgy ground on those aspects.
People voted for a myriad of reasons - but they were swayed by official and unofficial campaigns on both sides.
I would not call leavers racists. Hardcore Brexiteers, however, are on much more dodgy ground IMO. The anti-Turkish campaign was a classic case, and one which is still argued to this day.
As for being an 'arrogant prick': you might want to take the plank out of your own eye. The project you've spent decades on has turned to sh*t. You may want to consider your own role in this - but you won't, as its all someone else's fault, and it would have gone better if a pure-hearted leaver had been in charge.
Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?
Really?
My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.
It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
Can we Name the constituency’s going red to blue. the Labour MPs losing to Boris’s right wing Tory Party?
The thing to remember about the next election is that both Labour and Tory will be losing a lot of votes as compared to 2017. what matters is where they lose them. Do the tories lose most of their votes in safe seats to the brexit party, if so they don't lose too many to labour but could gain a lot depending where Labour loses it's votes.
It's not possible to predict particular gains/losses accurately because we don't know the detail enough about how the votes will be lost.
I'd venture a guess that the main determinant of the success or otherwise of the Tory campaign will indeed be where the Brexit Party's support comes from. If it's largely at the expense of the Conservatives then it could be very costly, but if the Tories' leave-leaning voters decide mostly to back Boris, and the Brexit Party's support therefore comes mainly from never-Tory Labour leave voters then Farage's outfit could be a huge asset in a whole swathe of Lab-Con marginals. We simply don't know.
FWIW, the suggestion from the Brecon & Radnor by-election was that the abysmal Labour performance was largely down to ex-miners in the south of the constituency dumping Labour for the Brexit Party. If true then that might be considered mildly encouraging for the Conservatives.
Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?
Really?
My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.
It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
The next paragraph is irrelevant. They are taking momentous power from the British executive, and simply handing it to Brussels
What if Brussels decides we should have two years? Three? Five? Eighty? We won’t have a say. We will have to accept whatever they deem appropriate, as the alternative will likely be no deal, and we know parliament does not want THAT.
It is treachery. It is asking Britain’s neighbors to come round and shag the wife, “but please keep the noise down”
Parliament gets a say. They have taken back control.
They don’t get a say. They just get to nod and agree to whatever our Brussels overlords decide we deserve. An incredible, mind boggling own goal from Remainers. Watch what the Tories do with this.
Remainers have massively overplayed their hand.
Cummins' war-gaming won't have included them doing something this dumb.
You people crack me up.
Only yesterday you were telling us that the Remainers were so stupid Johnson could outwit them just by not asking in the right way, or by adding some conditions, or by some other stratagem a child could foresee.
Now you realise they've thought out all the possibilities and insured against them, the yelping is deafening!
"3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force ofthe withdrawal agreement or, failing that,two years after the notification referred to inparagraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Councilor in decisions concerning it."
We get to represent ourselves, not both sides. The European Council explicitly excludes us.
Most on here and in twitterland seem to think the Benn's bill will pass the HoC but no one seems to be talking about the HoL blocking it.
Has that possibility been discounted now?
The House of Remain block it?
More seriously I thought there was a view that even if the government tried to filibuster it the Lords would take the option of curtailing further debate on the subject.
Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?
Really?
My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.
It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
The next paragraph is irrelevant. They are taking momentous power from the British executive, and simply handing it to Brussels
What if Brussels decides we should have two years? Three? Five? Eighty? We won’t have a say. We will have to accept whatever they deem appropriate, as the alternative will likely be no deal, and we know parliament does not want THAT.
It is treachery. It is asking Britain’s neighbors to come round and shag the wife, “but please keep the noise down”
This provision is quite extraordinary.Two dyas to reject an alternative extension proposed by the EU. What if Parliament is not sitting?
It can be recalled.
I can tell you that no person in their right mind would leave the fate of this country hanging on that possibility.Another point is what happens if an extension is subject to onerous conditions/do these have to be accepted? This is a minefield.
Thanks for telling me that. BoJo should win about 99% of the vote in the forthcoming GE then.
If the extension is subject to onerous conditions the HoC can reject it.
How exactly under this proposed legislation?There is no mechanism to reject any imposed condition that I can see.Suppose the condition is Gibraltar sovereignty sovereignty being ceded ,for example.
Didn't someone say on here earlier than even if the EU offer us a 100 year extension, and we accept, that we can still leave earlier if we want to. If so, what's the problem with this Hammond bill?
On the current swing predicted by Survation, Kensington, Dudley North, Newcastle under Lyme, Canterbury, Keighley, Bishop Auckland, Colne Valley, Warwick and Leamington, Stockton South, Ipswich, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Lincoln, Derby North, Wakefield, Battersea etc amongst the Labour seats to fall to the Tories.
We have the Brexit Party pushing their new candidates hard here in Stockton. Why vote for a Tory candidate who wants to negotiate a half-baked non-Brexit when you can vote for the Real Deal?
Can see the Leave vote split wide open. You need to understand that the new paradigm is leave/remain, not Tory/Labour
Didn't someone say on here earlier than even if the EU offer us a 100 year extension, and we accept, that we can still leave earlier if we want to. If so, what's the problem with this Hammond bill?
Didn't someone say on here earlier than even if the EU offer us a 100 year extension, and we accept, that we can still leave earlier if we want to. If so, what's the problem with this Hammond bill?
No one thinks the Commons will vote to accept a deal at any point, therefore length of extension, any extension, must be purely to enable time for anti-Brexit actions. It's no deal or no brexit, and has been for months.
Didn't someone say on here earlier than even if the EU offer us a 100 year extension, and we accept, that we can still leave earlier if we want to. If so, what's the problem with this Hammond bill?
Not sure who said that, no we couldn't unless we were to leave with a deal. A 100 year extension would be one way to take no deal off the table.
Comments
Tory front bench has 290 votes or so, DUP is another 10, Labour front bench will carry enough of the remainder.
So GE.
Basically the Corbynistas will vote both for the remain bill and the GE.
The next paragraph is irrelevant. They are taking momentous power from the British executive, and simply handing it to Brussels
What if Brussels decides we should have two years? Three? Five? Eighty? We won’t have a say. We will have to accept whatever they deem appropriate, as the alternative will likely be no deal, and we know parliament does not want THAT.
It is treachery. It is asking Britain’s neighbors to come round and shag the wife, “but please keep the noise down”
The idea was that Cameron couldn't just rat on Clegg at a moment of his choosing as if he did Clegg could go to Labour under the FTPA and make them kings.
Not very often we'll see a party that could sit with either major party be in a kingmaker position, so it is just like a fireguard made out of paper the rest of the time.
“Fuck it, we should go for a hard border. It will be fine.”
(He then started talking about how we would all be healthier if we add more Yorkshire rhubarb...)
I think I will green up for now and come back into the market in December when things are clearer.
I'm far too right wing for them and would scare the voters, although they'd be impressed by fashion sense.
Btw I made it to the US and denied myself internet for the whole week. Did I miss much?
The only political fact I established is that there are very few Trump supporters on the QM2 (John Sopel took a show of hands in one of his talks). Indeed there were Americans on the ship returning from house hunting in France in case he gets re-elected.
In the past there have been big registration drives on campuses. This time, new students will have to take the trouble to do it themselves in isolation whilst still at their parents homes.
They'll also need to have their student address. Not sure if you can register in advance of moving into an address?
It won’t happen on the day because you misunderstand what leave is to british business and British politics. The bit you (and so many others in this chat room) are missing here is how being pro EU helped the Party of business (The Conservatives) big time in elections over the last 40 years. The Tories won’t have that on their side in this snap election.
At the same time, In the eyes of many leave voters Socialism is the big winner from Brexit, because EU membership squattened it. Labour leave areas had people coming out the woodwork to vote leave because they are Hard bitten lefties. Many of these voters didn’t vote for Blair or Brown because new labour were the party of business and EU, not interested in bringing back socialism. And you, like HY, counting all leave voters for Boris and Farage in a GE?
How much of an over estimation is that? I don’t have a huge group of mates, but I must have about half a dozen die hard leave long before 2016 actually who are always Labour in GE, as they were last time.
Can we Name the constituency’s going red to blue. the Labour MPs losing to Boris’s right wing Tory Party?
I can say the same about my own constituency: what chance does Heidi Allen have?
(My own view is she stands little chance as an independent; more as a Lib Dem or an independent where the Lib Dems stand down.)
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1168622903413354496
Regardless, most student tenancies start in September. At least they do in Newcastle.
Universities can also start email campaigns.
I don’t know enough about NI politics, I was just assuming their seats are bullet proof and it’s useful for them to keep “winning” NI elections.
https://twitter.com/marycreaghmp/status/1168622542879428610?s=21
And Johnson gets the framing he wants - "Softhead Populism vs The Rest".
And given you and I are both rational betting men I sense we'll be calling it the same way.
'SP' will romp home.
Yeah sorry. Silly of me.
It's not possible to predict particular gains/losses accurately because we don't know the detail enough about how the votes will be lost.
The optics are piss poor.
Really? How many Labour rebels do you expect?
Cummins' war-gaming won't have included them doing something this dumb.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1168625038712610816
We can wait till the vote for the payout...
"He is not going to go to Brussels at the behest of Parliament to ask for an extension. It is not going to happen - categorically.
He is not going to do it by email. He is not going to do it by phone call. He is not going to do it by text. He is not going to do it by tweet".
Feels like it should have carried on.
He is not going to do it by second-class post.
He is not going to do it in person.
He is not going to do it by carrier pigeon.
He is not going to do it by semaphore.
He is not going to do it by smoke signal...
It is commonly accepted labour will pay dearly in leave seats and of course the lib dems will damage both parties with their clear message of remain
You may not like it but I doubt any on here would compare me with HYUFD and I try to express my opinion fairly. Of course you can disagree with it
Then let us vote on it.
On the current swing predicted by YouGov seats like Wrexham, Stoke on Trent North, Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Blackpool South, Great Grimsby, Darlington, Weaver Vale, Cardiff North, Bolton NE, Scunthorpe and possibly Enfield Southgate would go from red to blue too
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
Most of those seats were won by Thatcher, Major or Cameron at least once, they are true marginal seats, mainly Leave voting, not safe Labour seats
The SNP think they can gain a dozen-plus MPs and will put a manifesto commitment to a second independence referendum in their manifesto.
SNP dream scenario is surely Tories sweep England and SNP sweep Scotland, Tories guarantee Brexit, SNP gets second independence referendum.
If the extension is subject to onerous conditions the HoC can reject it.
They are more likely to make mistakes
Has that possibility been discounted now?
https://twitter.com/Raynerc113/status/1168070908327714817?s=20
People voted for a myriad of reasons - but they were swayed by official and unofficial campaigns on both sides.
I would not call leavers racists. Hardcore Brexiteers, however, are on much more dodgy ground IMO. The anti-Turkish campaign was a classic case, and one which is still argued to this day.
As for being an 'arrogant prick': you might want to take the plank out of your own eye. The project you've spent decades on has turned to sh*t. You may want to consider your own role in this - but you won't, as its all someone else's fault, and it would have gone better if a pure-hearted leaver had been in charge.
+649 Biden [+178,+1119]
+770 Sanders [+484,+1056]
+537 E Warren [+492,+581]
+287 Buttigieg [-106,+679]
-333 Harris [-912,+246]
+87 O Rourke [+178,+352]
-955 Yang [-1007,-903]
+536 Klobuchar [-338,+1409]
+412 Booker [+147,+677]
+173 Castro (Dem candidate I haven't backed or laid) [-92,+438]
I let my thoughts be known on Harris' ridiculous odds surge at the time, and started digging. Hard.
Being able to fill a touch back in at 25s on the presidency market was nice. The Yang price is mad too.
Strange how with all the advantages and the threats remain managed to lose then.
How crap must the product be they were selling.
FWIW, the suggestion from the Brecon & Radnor by-election was that the abysmal Labour performance was largely down to ex-miners in the south of the constituency dumping Labour for the Brexit Party. If true then that might be considered mildly encouraging for the Conservatives.
Only yesterday you were telling us that the Remainers were so stupid Johnson could outwit them just by not asking in the right way, or by adding some conditions, or by some other stratagem a child could foresee.
Now you realise they've thought out all the possibilities and insured against them, the yelping is deafening!
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2016/577971/EPRS_BRI(2016)577971_EN.pdf
"3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force ofthe withdrawal agreement or, failing that,two years after the notification referred to inparagraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Councilor in decisions concerning it."
We get to represent ourselves, not both sides. The European Council explicitly excludes us.
More seriously I thought there was a view that even if the government tried to filibuster it the Lords would take the option of curtailing further debate on the subject. I assume he means 'dissolution', but I guess we are all pretty disillusioned at this point too.
Is that something to do with alliteracy?
Can see the Leave vote split wide open. You need to understand that the new paradigm is leave/remain, not Tory/Labour