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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The next Speaker

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited September 3 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The next Speaker

With these words in January Speaker Bercow justified reportedly over-ruling the clerk of the house along with precedent in order to accept an amendment to the business motion from Dominic Grieve. The role, rights and responsibilities of the Speaker are very powerful within the House of Commons as the referee who can enforce the rules of the Commons guided by precedent – but also as shown in January to create and change these rules.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,651
    edited September 3
    First.

    I'd suggest the first thing that the next speaker needs to be is an MP after the election!
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,751
    Can't see Rees-Mogg having a sniff - far too toxic and sinister now.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 698
    JRM? A Catholic Speaker?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,335

    Can't see Rees-Mogg having a sniff - far too toxic and sinister now.

    For better or worse the speaker position is politicised now. If Labour + friends win the next GE I expect it'll be Hoyle, if its the Tories + DUP then it'll be Mogg. Maybe.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952
    Nice debut, Philip. Bravo.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,385
    Good article Mr T

    I enjoyed your observation of the escalation of terror both sides have used as Brexit went on. If breaking tradition and rules its daft to expect the other side just to suck it up and not retaliate in kind or move up a notch,

    Currently the only rule is there are no rules. We cant run a country that way,
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,733
    I like Lyndsey.

    Think he'll do well as a calm, pleasant, down to earth northerner following the grandiose, lofty Speaker Bercow.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,013
    Good piece, @Philip_Thompson .

    JRM as Speaker would fulfil the Banter Heuristic, though not as much as Theresa May being deselected this evening after voting to block No Deal.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,236
    tlg86 said:

    First.

    I'd suggest the first thing that the next speaker needs to be is an MP after the election!

    That rules out JRM.
  • Sky reporting from Mansfield shows most everyone saying unite and leave by 31st October. There is real anger and frustration at the mps trying to delay leaving

    Looks as if Boris is reflecting public opinion
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,982
    FPT
    dyedwoolie said:

    » show previous quotes
    Now now malcolm I know full well where the north is and indeed Scotland very well indeed

    You did indeed guess I was being a wag
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,791
    Thanks for the header, Philip!
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 457
    edited September 3
    I recall (I think?) it’s a secret ballot, but what voting system do they use?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489

    Sky reporting from Mansfield shows most everyone saying unite and leave by 31st October. There is real anger and frustration at the mps trying to delay leaving

    Looks as if Boris is reflecting public opinion

    You think people who are out and about in Mansfield on a Tuesday are representative of the country?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,118
    Congratulations to @Philip_Thompson to a nice first piece!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,791
    ab195 said:

    I recall (I think?) it’s a secret ballot, but what voting system do they use?

    Exhaustive ballot
  • Sky reporting from Mansfield shows most everyone saying unite and leave by 31st October. There is real anger and frustration at the mps trying to delay leaving

    Looks as if Boris is reflecting public opinion

    You think people who are out and about in Mansfield on a Tuesday are representative of the country?
    It is a snapshot of ordinary peoples views plus some businessmen
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 35,409
    Pulpstar said:

    Can't see Rees-Mogg having a sniff - far too toxic and sinister now.

    For better or worse the speaker position is politicised now. If Labour + friends win the next GE I expect it'll be Hoyle, if its the Tories + DUP then it'll be Mogg. Maybe.
    I suspect Hoyle is a better man than either Bercow or Martin - and would respect the traditional role rather than be the MP’s Trades Unionist or a partial “innovator”. A Labour government would not have an easy ride from Speaker Hoyle.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,651
    GIN1138 said:

    I like Lyndsey.

    Think he'll do well as a calm, pleasant, down to earth northerner following the grandiose, lofty Speaker Bercow.

    Definitely won't be Hoyle. Far to fair.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489

    Sky reporting from Mansfield shows most everyone saying unite and leave by 31st October. There is real anger and frustration at the mps trying to delay leaving

    Looks as if Boris is reflecting public opinion

    You think people who are out and about in Mansfield on a Tuesday are representative of the country?
    It is a snapshot of ordinary peoples views plus some businessmen
    I accept that. But that does not mean its representative.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 1,123
    stodge said:

    Anyone threatening violence or worse from either side is losing the plot

    Lets have a GE and give the nation a voice in who they want to govern us and start with a fresh looking HOC, as there are too many entrenched and out of touch mps at present

    I would expect Boris to lead the biggest party but a coalition of the rest could well see a referendum and as I have said before in 2020, which is the earliest a referendum could be held, the result due to the changed democracy and the youth vote should seee a good majority to remain

    In my opinion that is now the most likely outcome and that should calm public anger, hopefully

    Of course, violence from must side must be condemned unreservedly and those perpetrating such violence need to be brought to account and dealt with as prescribed by the law of the land.

    Churchill (who most Conservatives seem to admire even though he was a Liberal Unionist)
    Well he was the Prime minister for the Conservative party.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,118
    Scott_P said:
    I think it will be a real shame if we lose him from the Commons. He has been one of the few politicians who has impressed me.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,096

    Sky reporting from Mansfield shows most everyone saying unite and leave by 31st October. There is real anger and frustration at the mps trying to delay leaving

    Looks as if Boris is reflecting public opinion

    You think people who are out and about in Mansfield on a Tuesday are representative of the country?
    They might be representative of a demographic the Conservatives will need to win.
  • Nice thread by another Remoaner. 😜
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think it will be a real shame if we lose him from the Commons. He has been one of the few politicians who has impressed me.
    Don’t worry, I’m planning to drive down the A69 to campaign for him if necessary.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,594
    Labour should go hard on Dominic Cummings being the shadowy puppet master pulling Boris's strings. A Rasputin figure. Make him the story. Very easy then to say that Cummings can't be trusted not to change date of election etc. And then if he is still advising during the eventual election campaign he's a good boogeyman (whereas Boris himself does have some charisma and it may be harder to get the man on the street to hate him). Cummings comes across as an arsehole already so it should be easy enough to turn the public on him, and taint Boris by association.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952
    edited September 3
    Scott_P said:
    He’s not voting against No Deal. He’s voting for a bill which delivers a naked, hog-tied Britain to the dungeonmasters of the EU. Wanker.

    Edit: I like Rory Stewart. But his inability to acknowledge this clause in the Hillary Benn Brexit Surrender Treaty is a major failure.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489
    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    He’s not voting against No Deal. He’s voting for a bill which delivers a naked, hog-tied Britain to the dungeonmasters of the EU. Wanker.
    You’re better than this.
  • Sky reporting from Mansfield shows most everyone saying unite and leave by 31st October. There is real anger and frustration at the mps trying to delay leaving

    Looks as if Boris is reflecting public opinion

    You think people who are out and about in Mansfield on a Tuesday are representative of the country?
    It is a snapshot of ordinary peoples views plus some businessmen
    I accept that. But that does not mean its representative.
    Of course not but it chimes with various comments people have made to me over the last few days, some not even into politics

    Evidence, if there is any, should start showing in the polls over the next few days
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489

    Sky reporting from Mansfield shows most everyone saying unite and leave by 31st October. There is real anger and frustration at the mps trying to delay leaving

    Looks as if Boris is reflecting public opinion

    You think people who are out and about in Mansfield on a Tuesday are representative of the country?
    It is a snapshot of ordinary peoples views plus some businessmen
    I accept that. But that does not mean its representative.
    Of course not but it chimes with various comments people have made to me over the last few days, some not even into politics

    Evidence, if there is any, should start showing in the polls over the next few days
    The sooner we get more polls the better!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,004
    Pulpstar said:

    Can't see Rees-Mogg having a sniff - far too toxic and sinister now.

    For better or worse the speaker position is politicised now. If Labour + friends win the next GE I expect it'll be Hoyle, if its the Tories + DUP then it'll be Mogg. Maybe.
    JRM is on the ministerial ladder now. If it's to be a Leave Tory Nigel Evans might be a better bet.
  • Sky reporting from Mansfield shows most everyone saying unite and leave by 31st October. There is real anger and frustration at the mps trying to delay leaving

    Looks as if Boris is reflecting public opinion

    You think people who are out and about in Mansfield on a Tuesday are representative of the country?
    It is a snapshot of ordinary peoples views plus some businessmen
    I accept that. But that does not mean its representative.
    Of course not but it chimes with various comments people have made to me over the last few days, some not even into politics

    Evidence, if there is any, should start showing in the polls over the next few days
    The sooner we get more polls the better!
    I would agree with you - but dont tell HYUFD !!!!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,678
    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    He’s not voting against No Deal. He’s voting for a bill which delivers a naked, hog-tied Britain to the dungeonmasters of the EU. Wanker.
    Quite.
  • NooNoo Posts: 788
    Scott_P said:
    "a Tory no-deal Brexit.. everything will be blamed on it [for forty years]"

    Spot on from Rory, but there is no evidence that the soon to former PM is thinking long term at all. Political horizons are now being measured in hours, not years.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 35,409

    Good article Mr T

    I enjoyed your observation of the escalation of terror both sides have used as Brexit went on. If breaking tradition and rules its daft to expect the other side just to suck it up and not retaliate in kind or move up a notch,

    Currently the only rule is there are no rules. We cant run a country that way,

    Seconded - let us not forget that Bercow started this mess and those cheering Grieve in January may have pause for thought now.
  • Labour should go hard on Dominic Cummings being the shadowy puppet master pulling Boris's strings. A Rasputin figure. Make him the story. Very easy then to say that Cummings can't be trusted not to change date of election etc. And then if he is still advising during the eventual election campaign he's a good boogeyman (whereas Boris himself does have some charisma and it may be harder to get the man on the street to hate him). Cummings comes across as an arsehole already so it should be easy enough to turn the public on him, and taint Boris by association.

    Not really. The public will not have a clue who he is - though I dislike him with a passion
  • NooNoo Posts: 788

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    He’s not voting against No Deal. He’s voting for a bill which delivers a naked, hog-tied Britain to the dungeonmasters of the EU. Wanker.
    You’re better than this.
    You sure about that?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 1,188
    edited September 3
    Corbyn going for the election after all, it looks like.

    "Following a productive meeting of cross-party MPs this morning, we are united in our opposition to Boris Johnson’s plans for a no deal.

    We are confident that the legislative route we have adopted has every chance of being successful, and we are working on ways in which we can prevent Boris Johnson manipulating an election to force a no-deal Brexit.

    Labour wants to prevent a no-deal Brexit, and to have a general election, so we can end austerity and invest in our communities. I am confident we can have both, and we’ve been in discussions about a way to achieve this. We will continue to work across parliament towards this goal and will have further meetings to this end in coming days."
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    He’s not voting against No Deal. He’s voting for a bill which delivers a naked, hog-tied Britain to the dungeonmasters of the EU. Wanker.
    You’re better than this.
    I’m really not.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,081
    Byronic said:

    a naked, hog-tied Britain

    On a tech support note, did you work out why your ipad is overheating? It may be related to the stuff in the other tabs
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,786

    Sky reporting from Mansfield shows most everyone saying unite and leave by 31st October. There is real anger and frustration at the mps trying to delay leaving

    Looks as if Boris is reflecting public opinion

    Boris's problem is that people who want Brexit because they think it will make their lives better, might change their minds when Brexit makes things worse.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,988
    Good first article, Mr. Thompson.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952

    Byronic said:

    a naked, hog-tied Britain

    On a tech support note, did you work out why your ipad is overheating? It may be related to the stuff in the other tabs
    I think all iPads heat up very quickly in direct sun. I should know, I’ve got about five of them, and they all react the same
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293

    Sky reporting from Mansfield shows most everyone saying unite and leave by 31st October. There is real anger and frustration at the mps trying to delay leaving

    Looks as if Boris is reflecting public opinion

    You think people who are out and about in Mansfield on a Tuesday are representative of the country?
    It is a snapshot of ordinary peoples views plus some businessmen
    I accept that. But that does not mean its representative.
    Of course not but it chimes with various comments people have made to me over the last few days, some not even into politics

    Evidence, if there is any, should start showing in the polls over the next few days
    Yes. But it reflects an understandable weariness. The fantasy that by Brexiting we will all breathe a sigh of relief and never speak of it again is strong.
    And hideously wrong.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think it will be a real shame if we lose him from the Commons. He has been one of the few politicians who has impressed me.
    He's one of the most interesting, for sure.

    Attempting to deselect a huge amount of senior/high profile MPs in one go is banana republic stuff, is he really going to go through with it?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,081
    Good piece, hope Philip does some more.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,337
    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    dyedwoolie said:

    » show previous quotes
    Now now malcolm I know full well where the north is and indeed Scotland very well indeed

    You did indeed guess I was being a wag

    You rascal ;)
  • dixiedean said:

    Sky reporting from Mansfield shows most everyone saying unite and leave by 31st October. There is real anger and frustration at the mps trying to delay leaving

    Looks as if Boris is reflecting public opinion

    You think people who are out and about in Mansfield on a Tuesday are representative of the country?
    It is a snapshot of ordinary peoples views plus some businessmen
    I accept that. But that does not mean its representative.
    Of course not but it chimes with various comments people have made to me over the last few days, some not even into politics

    Evidence, if there is any, should start showing in the polls over the next few days
    Yes. But it reflects an understandable weariness. The fantasy that by Brexiting we will all breathe a sigh of relief and never speak of it again is strong.
    And hideously wrong.
    On that I agree
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    midwinter said:

    Sky reporting from Mansfield shows most everyone saying unite and leave by 31st October. There is real anger and frustration at the mps trying to delay leaving

    Looks as if Boris is reflecting public opinion

    You think people who are out and about in Mansfield on a Tuesday are representative of the country?
    They might be representative of a demographic the Conservatives will need to win.
    Err. They already hold Mansfield...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,335
    edited September 3
    "Tory rebels are handing power to Corbyn junta, says Boris Johnson
    PM fails to quell unrest after meeting with dissident MPs" (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/try-and-stop-me-rebelling-philip-hammond-tells-no-10-kbdzj8nwf
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,335
    Rebel majority of 30 for this evening's vote. Benn bill is heavily odds on to receive RA.
  • Sky reporting not certain all labour mps will vote against the government
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,337

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think it will be a real shame if we lose him from the Commons. He has been one of the few politicians who has impressed me.
    He's one of the most interesting, for sure.

    Attempting to deselect a huge amount of senior/high profile MPs in one go is banana republic stuff, is he really going to go through with it?
    It's really not, voting to hamstring your own government is an untenable situation for the minority doing it. Irrespective of the rights or wrongs of this legislation, a conservative party led by Johnson cannot have MPs prepared to hamstring his government.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952
    dixiedean said:

    Sky reporting from Mansfield shows most everyone saying unite and leave by 31st October. There is real anger and frustration at the mps trying to delay leaving

    Looks as if Boris is reflecting public opinion

    You think people who are out and about in Mansfield on a Tuesday are representative of the country?
    It is a snapshot of ordinary peoples views plus some businessmen
    I accept that. But that does not mean its representative.
    Of course not but it chimes with various comments people have made to me over the last few days, some not even into politics

    Evidence, if there is any, should start showing in the polls over the next few days
    Yes. But it reflects an understandable weariness. The fantasy that by Brexiting we will all breathe a sigh of relief and never speak of it again is strong.
    And hideously wrong.
    Yes. But the same goes for the Remainers: who blithely think a revocation, or a brisk new referendum with a Remain outcome, will quickly settle things, as we go back to normal.

    It is delusional.

    I’m trying hard to think of a way out of this, which doesn’t lead to an embittered country divided in half for a generation. It’s tricky.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 879

    Sky reporting from Mansfield shows most everyone saying unite and leave by 31st October. There is real anger and frustration at the mps trying to delay leaving

    Looks as if Boris is reflecting public opinion

    You think people who are out and about in Mansfield on a Tuesday are representative of the country?
    It is a snapshot of ordinary peoples views plus some businessmen
    I accept that. But that does not mean its representative.
    Of course not but it chimes with various comments people have made to me over the last few days, some not even into politics

    Evidence, if there is any, should start showing in the polls over the next few days
    The sooner we get more polls the better!
    I would agree with you - but dont tell HYUFD !!!!
    I don’t think there is a single town or constituency that is “representative of the country” these days. I live between Ashford and Canterbury, which are roughly 15 miles apart, and attitudes in the two are polar opposites. Hell, even Whitstable and Herne Bay, which practically merge into one another, are utterly different when it comes to Brexit.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,013
    Aaaand @edmundintokyo wins PB for today.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 9,650
    Thanks for posting that interesting summary Philip Thompson
  • Corbyn going for the election after all, it looks like.

    "Following a productive meeting of cross-party MPs this morning, we are united in our opposition to Boris Johnson’s plans for a no deal.

    We are confident that the legislative route we have adopted has every chance of being successful, and we are working on ways in which we can prevent Boris Johnson manipulating an election to force a no-deal Brexit.

    Labour wants to prevent a no-deal Brexit, and to have a general election, so we can end austerity and invest in our communities. I am confident we can have both, and we’ve been in discussions about a way to achieve this. We will continue to work across parliament towards this goal and will have further meetings to this end in coming days."

    The issue has always been ensuring that the election is not used as a device to ensure a No Deal, even if the result produces a majority for parties opposing No Deal. Basically, Johnson is not trusted not to agree one thing and then do another. If a device is found to tie his hands and to give the incoming government the time needed to implement its Brexit policy then an eletion works for everyone that matters.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 50,091
    Byronic said:

    Edit: I like Rory Stewart. But his inability to acknowledge this clause in the Hillary Benn Brexit Surrender Treaty is a major failure.

    I assume he read the next clause which shows you're talking bollocks.

    Just a guess..
  • Pulpstar said:

    Rebel majority of 30 for this evening's vote. Benn bill is heavily odds on to receive RA.

    It looks like it
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,566
    Yet another thread by shouty diehard remainers...

    Instead, a good and welcome debut from Philip, which - setting aside the odd piece of hyperbole - ...the divisions over Brexit have increased into a state virtually of all out war... - is not at all unreasonable.

    I think it's far from certain that Bercow would lose his seat even if the Tories and/or Brexit party ran a candidate against him, but on the other hand, he might stay on only for a relatively brief time after the election anyway.

    A partisan appointment of a new Speaker is an outside possibility, but to what end ? Any government with a decent majority wold have little problem enacting its agenda, so it would be little more than an expression of pique.

    My bet would be Hoyle, FWIW.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,335

    Sky reporting not certain all labour mps will vote against the government

    There is a maximum of 8 or so though. The 20 Tories outnumber them in a very hung parliament, I expect my MP John Mann will either abstain or vote with the Gov't this evening.
    I don't think he cares about the deselection threats he'll likely get over it.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,385

    Sky reporting from Mansfield shows most everyone saying unite and leave by 31st October. There is real anger and frustration at the mps trying to delay leaving

    Looks as if Boris is reflecting public opinion

    Boris's problem is that people who want Brexit because they think it will make their lives better, might change their minds when Brexit makes things worse.
    ??????

    Polls say most people are expecting an economic hit post Brexit. Its not just about the money,
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952

    Aaaand @edmundintokyo wins PB for today.

    Ah. It was a gag.
  • Hoyle would not be a good choice - he's a self-important attention seeker, who thinks he's funny (we don't need another one of those)
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,081

    Sky reporting not certain all labour mps will vote against the government

    I think we already knew there would be *some* Lab rebels, the question isn't whether there are any, it's whether there are many.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,733
    Pulpstar said:

    Rebel majority of 30 for this evening's vote. Benn bill is heavily odds on to receive RA.

    Boris' speech to Parliament after he's defeated will be one of the most dramatic moments in Westminster since the fall of the Callaghan government in 1979.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,096
    dixiedean said:

    midwinter said:

    Sky reporting from Mansfield shows most everyone saying unite and leave by 31st October. There is real anger and frustration at the mps trying to delay leaving

    Looks as if Boris is reflecting public opinion

    You think people who are out and about in Mansfield on a Tuesday are representative of the country?
    They might be representative of a demographic the Conservatives will need to win.
    Err. They already hold Mansfield...
    I know. Pretty sure Mansfield has plenty in common with many other seats that the Tories were hoping to win in 2017 but didn't.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,751

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think it will be a real shame if we lose him from the Commons. He has been one of the few politicians who has impressed me.
    He's one of the most interesting, for sure.

    Attempting to deselect a huge amount of senior/high profile MPs in one go is banana republic stuff, is he really going to go through with it?
    I suspect it's just a Cummings wheeze that will be quickly abandoned once the threat no longer has a purpose. Chucking out all those long-standing, venerable Tories would make Boris a leper within the party. He wouldn't want that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,335
    If May had threatened a little harder on her MVs perhaps we'd have the WA passed now. Probably not but the soft middle way (WA) majority could have been sprung up in a GE campaign. Problem was she'd already played the GE card, Johnson has not yet.
  • Corbyn going for the election after all, it looks like.

    "Following a productive meeting of cross-party MPs this morning, we are united in our opposition to Boris Johnson’s plans for a no deal.

    We are confident that the legislative route we have adopted has every chance of being successful, and we are working on ways in which we can prevent Boris Johnson manipulating an election to force a no-deal Brexit.

    Labour wants to prevent a no-deal Brexit, and to have a general election, so we can end austerity and invest in our communities. I am confident we can have both, and we’ve been in discussions about a way to achieve this. We will continue to work across parliament towards this goal and will have further meetings to this end in coming days."

    The issue has always been ensuring that the election is not used as a device to ensure a No Deal, even if the result produces a majority for parties opposing No Deal. Basically, Johnson is not trusted not to agree one thing and then do another. If a device is found to tie his hands and to give the incoming government the time needed to implement its Brexit policy then an eletion works for everyone that matters.

    To be honest nobody can tie the hands of a new majority elected government otherwise why have elections
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,660


    On that I agree

    Stodge's Tenth Law of Politics states "if you make people rich enough. angry enough, tired enough or bored enough, they'll give you their souls willingly"
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,335
    Byronic said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sky reporting from Mansfield shows most everyone saying unite and leave by 31st October. There is real anger and frustration at the mps trying to delay leaving

    Looks as if Boris is reflecting public opinion

    You think people who are out and about in Mansfield on a Tuesday are representative of the country?
    It is a snapshot of ordinary peoples views plus some businessmen
    I accept that. But that does not mean its representative.
    Of course not but it chimes with various comments people have made to me over the last few days, some not even into politics

    Evidence, if there is any, should start showing in the polls over the next few days
    Yes. But it reflects an understandable weariness. The fantasy that by Brexiting we will all breathe a sigh of relief and never speak of it again is strong.
    And hideously wrong.
    Yes. But the same goes for the Remainers: who blithely think a revocation, or a brisk new referendum with a Remain outcome, will quickly settle things, as we go back to normal.

    It is delusional.

    I’m trying hard to think of a way out of this, which doesn’t lead to an embittered country divided in half for a generation. It’s tricky.
    It's called the withdrawal agreement followed by a Norwegian landing. I genuinely think once we're out most leavers won't particularly care how close we are to the EU - the symbolic cultural war will have been won.
    Essentially de facto Remain for the economy, de jure Brexit for the symbolism.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,335

    Corbyn going for the election after all, it looks like.

    "Following a productive meeting of cross-party MPs this morning, we are united in our opposition to Boris Johnson’s plans for a no deal.

    We are confident that the legislative route we have adopted has every chance of being successful, and we are working on ways in which we can prevent Boris Johnson manipulating an election to force a no-deal Brexit.

    Labour wants to prevent a no-deal Brexit, and to have a general election, so we can end austerity and invest in our communities. I am confident we can have both, and we’ve been in discussions about a way to achieve this. We will continue to work across parliament towards this goal and will have further meetings to this end in coming days."

    The issue has always been ensuring that the election is not used as a device to ensure a No Deal, even if the result produces a majority for parties opposing No Deal. Basically, Johnson is not trusted not to agree one thing and then do another. If a device is found to tie his hands and to give the incoming government the time needed to implement its Brexit policy then an eletion works for everyone that matters.

    I'm surprised that people think Johnson would change the date of an election after announcing it. I don't think any British politician would do that. Maybe I'm naive.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952

    Pulpstar said:

    Rebel majority of 30 for this evening's vote. Benn bill is heavily odds on to receive RA.

    It looks like it
    If the rebels win then revoke or referendum, and hence Remain, become much much more likely. If not probable. It looks like the forex markets have already noticed this.

    The £ has regained all its daily losses.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    Byronic said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sky reporting from Mansfield shows most everyone saying unite and leave by 31st October. There is real anger and frustration at the mps trying to delay leaving

    Looks as if Boris is reflecting public opinion

    You think people who are out and about in Mansfield on a Tuesday are representative of the country?
    It is a snapshot of ordinary peoples views plus some businessmen
    I accept that. But that does not mean its representative.
    Of course not but it chimes with various comments people have made to me over the last few days, some not even into politics

    Evidence, if there is any, should start showing in the polls over the next few days
    Yes. But it reflects an understandable weariness. The fantasy that by Brexiting we will all breathe a sigh of relief and never speak of it again is strong.
    And hideously wrong.
    Yes. But the same goes for the Remainers: who blithely think a revocation, or a brisk new referendum with a Remain outcome, will quickly settle things, as we go back to normal.

    It is delusional.

    I’m trying hard to think of a way out of this, which doesn’t lead to an embittered country divided in half for a generation. It’s tricky.
    I could not agree more.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 50,091

    I suspect it's just a Cummings wheeze that will be quickly abandoned once the threat no longer has a purpose. Chucking out all those long-standing, venerable Tories would make Boris a leper within the party. He wouldn't want that.

    Not doing makes him a leper with the headbangers who got him the job.

    Ironic if the ERG submit letters to the '22 because BoZo wouldn't expel the "moderates"...
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,168
    AndyJS said:

    Corbyn going for the election after all, it looks like.

    "Following a productive meeting of cross-party MPs this morning, we are united in our opposition to Boris Johnson’s plans for a no deal.

    We are confident that the legislative route we have adopted has every chance of being successful, and we are working on ways in which we can prevent Boris Johnson manipulating an election to force a no-deal Brexit.

    Labour wants to prevent a no-deal Brexit, and to have a general election, so we can end austerity and invest in our communities. I am confident we can have both, and we’ve been in discussions about a way to achieve this. We will continue to work across parliament towards this goal and will have further meetings to this end in coming days."

    The issue has always been ensuring that the election is not used as a device to ensure a No Deal, even if the result produces a majority for parties opposing No Deal. Basically, Johnson is not trusted not to agree one thing and then do another. If a device is found to tie his hands and to give the incoming government the time needed to implement its Brexit policy then an eletion works for everyone that matters.

    I'm surprised that people think Johnson would change the date of an election after announcing it. I don't think any British politician would do that. Maybe I'm naive.
    Johnson has provably lied and been deceptive on the proroguation issue, which has understandably destroyed any trust MPs had in him.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think it will be a real shame if we lose him from the Commons. He has been one of the few politicians who has impressed me.
    He's one of the most interesting, for sure.

    Attempting to deselect a huge amount of senior/high profile MPs in one go is banana republic stuff, is he really going to go through with it?
    I suspect it's just a Cummings wheeze that will be quickly abandoned once the threat no longer has a purpose. Chucking out all those long-standing, venerable Tories would make Boris a leper within the party. He wouldn't want that.
    Suspension is certain but for how long.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,385
    Pulpstar said:

    Byronic said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sky reporting from Mansfield shows most everyone saying unite and leave by 31st October. There is real anger and frustration at the mps trying to delay leaving

    Looks as if Boris is reflecting public opinion

    You think people who are out and about in Mansfield on a Tuesday are representative of the country?
    It is a snapshot of ordinary peoples views plus some businessmen
    I accept that. But that does not mean its representative.
    Of course not but it chimes with various comments people have made to me over the last few days, some not even into politics

    Evidence, if there is any, should start showing in the polls over the next few days
    Yes. But it reflects an understandable weariness. The fantasy that by Brexiting we will all breathe a sigh of relief and never speak of it again is strong.
    And hideously wrong.
    Yes. But the same goes for the Remainers: who blithely think a revocation, or a brisk new referendum with a Remain outcome, will quickly settle things, as we go back to normal.

    It is delusional.

    I’m trying hard to think of a way out of this, which doesn’t lead to an embittered country divided in half for a generation. It’s tricky.
    It's called the withdrawal agreement followed by a Norwegian landing. I genuinely think once we're out most leavers won't particularly care how close we are to the EU - the symbolic cultural war will have been won.
    Essentially de facto Remain for the economy, de jure Brexit for the symbolism.
    Most voters would go with that, its MPs who appear to be unable to get their shit together.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,337
    AndyJS said:

    Corbyn going for the election after all, it looks like.

    "Following a productive meeting of cross-party MPs this morning, we are united in our opposition to Boris Johnson’s plans for a no deal.

    We are confident that the legislative route we have adopted has every chance of being successful, and we are working on ways in which we can prevent Boris Johnson manipulating an election to force a no-deal Brexit.

    Labour wants to prevent a no-deal Brexit, and to have a general election, so we can end austerity and invest in our communities. I am confident we can have both, and we’ve been in discussions about a way to achieve this. We will continue to work across parliament towards this goal and will have further meetings to this end in coming days."

    The issue has always been ensuring that the election is not used as a device to ensure a No Deal, even if the result produces a majority for parties opposing No Deal. Basically, Johnson is not trusted not to agree one thing and then do another. If a device is found to tie his hands and to give the incoming government the time needed to implement its Brexit policy then an eletion works for everyone that matters.

    I'm surprised that people think Johnson would change the date of an election after announcing it. I don't think any British politician would do that. Maybe I'm naive.
    Blair did it for the locals on foot and mouth, if a 'crisis' occurred he would change the date. Short of that he can't. It depends what can be defined as requiring a delay
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,863
    edited September 3

    Corbyn going for the election after all, it looks like.

    "Following a productive meeting of cross-party MPs this morning, we are united in our opposition to Boris Johnson’s plans for a no deal.

    We are confident that the legislative route we have adopted has every chance of being successful, and we are working on ways in which we can prevent Boris Johnson manipulating an election to force a no-deal Brexit.

    Labour wants to prevent a no-deal Brexit, and to have a general election, so we can end austerity and invest in our communities. I am confident we can have both, and we’ve been in discussions about a way to achieve this. We will continue to work across parliament towards this goal and will have further meetings to this end in coming days."

    The issue has always been ensuring that the election is not used as a device to ensure a No Deal, even if the result produces a majority for parties opposing No Deal. Basically, Johnson is not trusted not to agree one thing and then do another. If a device is found to tie his hands and to give the incoming government the time needed to implement its Brexit policy then an eletion works for everyone that matters.

    IMO, as well as getting the 14 Oct date locked down, they would also need to build in a clause stating Parliament must meet no later than a week after the election. If it's a hung parliament, even if the Tories have suffered heavy losses, I could just see Johnson both refusing to resign AND refusing to convene a Parliament that would VONC him until after Brexit day.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952
    Pulpstar said:

    Byronic said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sky reporting from Mansfield shows most everyone saying unite and leave by 31st October. There is real anger and frustration at the mps trying to delay leaving

    Looks as if Boris is reflecting public opinion

    You think people who are out and about in Mansfield on a Tuesday are representative of the country?
    It is a snapshot of ordinary peoples views plus some businessmen
    I accept that. But that does not mean its representative.
    Of course not but it chimes with various comments people have made to me over the last few days, some not even into politics

    Evidence, if there is any, should start showing in the polls over the next few days
    Yes. But it reflects an understandable weariness. The fantasy that by Brexiting we will all breathe a sigh of relief and never speak of it again is strong.
    And hideously wrong.
    Yes. But the same goes for the Remainers: who blithely think a revocation, or a brisk new referendum with a Remain outcome, will quickly settle things, as we go back to normal.

    It is delusional.

    I’m trying hard to think of a way out of this, which doesn’t lead to an embittered country divided in half for a generation. It’s tricky.
    It's called the withdrawal agreement followed by a Norwegian landing. I genuinely think once we're out most leavers won't particularly care how close we are to the EU - the symbolic cultural war will have been won.
    Essentially de facto Remain for the economy, de jure Brexit for the symbolism.
    Sure. But Remainers are now running the show. They have a whiff of victory. They won’t stop until they’ve fucked Brexit. And with it, quite possibly, the country.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,081

    I suspect it's just a Cummings wheeze that will be quickly abandoned once the threat no longer has a purpose. Chucking out all those long-standing, venerable Tories would make Boris a leper within the party. He wouldn't want that.

    Fire Cummings instead, the whole point of letting a minion tell everyone that he's running everything is that you can dump him and move on if the strategy doesn't work out.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,004
    Bonus point to the first PB'er to identify the only Tory who voted against MV3 from the Remain perspective and who will (presumably) vote with the Government against the motion today.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,195

    Sky reporting not certain all labour mps will vote against the government

    I think we already knew there would be *some* Lab rebels, the question isn't whether there are any, it's whether there are many.
    If there are many they are doing a very good job of keeping quiet.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,566

    Corbyn going for the election after all, it looks like.

    "Following a productive meeting of cross-party MPs this morning, we are united in our opposition to Boris Johnson’s plans for a no deal.

    We are confident that the legislative route we have adopted has every chance of being successful, and we are working on ways in which we can prevent Boris Johnson manipulating an election to force a no-deal Brexit.

    Labour wants to prevent a no-deal Brexit, and to have a general election, so we can end austerity and invest in our communities. I am confident we can have both, and we’ve been in discussions about a way to achieve this. We will continue to work across parliament towards this goal and will have further meetings to this end in coming days."

    The issue has always been ensuring that the election is not used as a device to ensure a No Deal, even if the result produces a majority for parties opposing No Deal. Basically, Johnson is not trusted not to agree one thing and then do another. If a device is found to tie his hands and to give the incoming government the time needed to implement its Brexit policy then an election works for everyone that matters.

    To be honest nobody can tie the hands of a new majority elected government otherwise why have elections
    Johnson is in government - the current efforts are about tying his hands until the next one is elected. Were he to then gain majority he would be free to pursue whatever quixotic policy he chose.
    And a short delay would allow him time to legislate for a No Deal Brexit if that were his choice - and while utterly unwelcome would be preferable to leaving with no deal on the 31st without any such legislation in place.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,013
    FPT

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    This is quite incendiary. The rebels are in cahoots with the lawyers of a foreign power.

    Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) Tweeted:
    4. Johnson tried to make case he thinks will get a deal but there simply isn’t much faith in that argument - one present said ‘it’s a load of ....’ - on other side another in the room said it’s clear rebels have consulted with eu lawyers


    If you want to be hyperbolic, THIS looks like the real coup.

    Yes, diehard Remainers are now clearly turning traitor this is 1588 all over again
    :D

    I’m a citizen of both the EU and the UK. How can I be a traitor?
    I think it's concepts like that which really irritate Eurosceptics: they put national citizenships on an equal footing with those of every other, when really they're not. Again, the EU gets the tone and language all wrong.

    The EU should have stuck to citizen of a nation state within the European Alliance. Everything from nation first and ditch the federalism.

    Crucial difference.
    The time for flying those EU flags you had me buy, may be approaching.
    If you want to pour fuel on the fire of opposition to the EU in the UK then go right ahead.

    It's emotional symbols of nationhood and loyalty like that which go straight to the gut of what drives Eurosceptic feeling and reaction.

    You should have learnt this by now.
    That depends on the demographics of where you live. There are certainly places where flying a Union Jack would cause more raised eyebrows than flying an EU flag. (I live in one such.)
    Where do you live?
    A remainy bit of the Cotswolds.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,004
    Nigelb said:

    Yet another thread by shouty diehard remainers...

    Instead, a good and welcome debut from Philip, which - setting aside the odd piece of hyperbole - ...the divisions over Brexit have increased into a state virtually of all out war... - is not at all unreasonable.

    I think it's far from certain that Bercow would lose his seat even if the Tories and/or Brexit party ran a candidate against him, but on the other hand, he might stay on only for a relatively brief time after the election anyway.

    A partisan appointment of a new Speaker is an outside possibility, but to what end ? Any government with a decent majority wold have little problem enacting its agenda, so it would be little more than an expression of pique.

    My bet would be Hoyle, FWIW.

    Hoyle looks a solid favourite. But given the presumed Labour losses I'm not sure why there are quite so many of his Labour colleagues near the head of the betting.
This discussion has been closed.