Cummings must have a plan for this situation. Looking forward to seeing what it is.
Not only that, there's also the Golden Law of Brexit, which is that any time someone feels like they've done something clever, it's going to somehow blow up spectacularly in their face.
It’s too late. Remainers scent total victory. They won’t hold back now.
Brace.
Not all anti-No Dealers are for Remain. Indeed nearly all the mooted Tory rebels voted 3 times for Brexit.
It just means we need a sane Brexit, perhaps even Norway plus, and a review in 5 years over whether to diverge more or rejoin.
Too late. You and your kind have spent three years doing your damndest to nullify the largest democratic vote in British history.
Well, now you get your wish, it seems. You must own the consequences
Nah, I appreciate that you are new to this board, but from June 2016-18 I was advocating a Hard Brexit, then to rebuild relations with the EU afterwards. I think TSE is still of this mind. I changed my mind after the #PeoplesVote march in June 18.
I've got to say that Boris Johnson looks unwell. The clammy, pallid look does not speak of a man in charge of events.
Everyone is looking like shit it seems to me. The stress I suppose.
LOL, after 7 weeks on the beach , they have to come in and sit on their fat arses and say a few words , after their subsidised lunch with champers. Hardly tough work.
Talking out of your uninformed nationalistic arse once again. A lot of MPs work very hard, and those that live a long way away (including Scots Nats) are separated from their families for long periods.
I am 4 weeks into a 3 month stint working away from home and family. If I did my job as badly as MPs do theirs I would find my contract terminated in a heartbeat. I have not one ounce of sympathy for any of them.
It’s too late. Remainers scent total victory. They won’t hold back now.
Brace.
Not all anti-No Dealers are for Remain. Indeed nearly all the mooted Tory rebels voted 3 times for Brexit.
It just means we need a sane Brexit, perhaps even Norway plus, and a review in 5 years over whether to diverge more or rejoin.
Too late. You and your kind have spent three years doing your damndest to nullify the largest democratic vote in British history.
Well, now you get your wish, it seems. You must own the consequences
Nah, I appreciate that you are new to this board, but from June 2016-18 I was advocating a Hard Brexit, then to rebuild relations with the EU afterwards. I think TSE is still of this mind. I changed my mind after the #PeoplesVote march in June 18.
Enjoy your “victory” over democracy. Pop some champagne! Have fun.
Two statements caught my attention among Johnson's bluster this afternoon.
"We will obey the law" in answer to the question whether the government will comply with legislation mandating an extension. That removes one unknown.
"What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander" in answer to the question whether the whip will be removed from Tory MPs who vote against a deal assuming he gets one. Probably hypothetical but in the unlikely event that he gets a deal, very significant.
"What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander" is an interesting quote form a man who defied the whip himself. Will he be tendering his own resignation from the party for his part in handing Jeremy Corbyn previous victories? He really is a two-faced dishonest little creep. Nothing but contempt
Why do people keep making this ludicrous point as if it means anything? May didn't make this a confidence matter.
I've got to say that Boris Johnson looks unwell. The clammy, pallid look does not speak of a man in charge of events.
Everyone is looking like shit it seems to me. The stress I suppose.
LOL, after 7 weeks on the beach , they have to come in and sit on their fat arses and say a few words , after their subsidised lunch with champers. Hardly tough work.
Talking out of your uninformed nationalistic arse once again. A lot of MPs work very hard, and those that live a long way away (including Scots Nats) are separated from their families for long periods.
I am 4 weeks into a 3 month stint working away from home and family. If I did my job as badly as MPs do theirs I would find my contract terminated in a heartbeat. I have not one ounce of sympathy for any of them.
Well I don't know what you do Richard, but I do know a number of MPs, one of whom is one of the hardest working people I have ever met. I am also not convinced by the popular view that they are doing a bad job. The country is split, and it is their job to reflect that. People may not like it, but that is the way the system works. If Boris and his entryist cronies think they can get a big majority then good luck to them. I don't claim to be Nostradamus, or even HYUFD, but I predict another hung parliament.
I've got to say that Boris Johnson looks unwell. The clammy, pallid look does not speak of a man in charge of events.
Everyone is looking like shit it seems to me. The stress I suppose.
LOL, after 7 weeks on the beach , they have to come in and sit on their fat arses and say a few words , after their subsidised lunch with champers. Hardly tough work.
Talking out of your uninformed nationalistic arse once again. A lot of MPs work very hard, and those that live a long way away (including Scots Nats) are separated from their families for long periods.
So wha t ? Lots of people in business do this every week. If MPs dont like the liefstyle they shouldnt apply.
Yes and they put in much longer hours and do not get a second house paid for them , able to claim everything at both ends on expenses , subsidised meals , bars , gold plated pensions and 20+ weeks holidays a year.
It’s too late. Remainers scent total victory. They won’t hold back now.
Brace.
Not all anti-No Dealers are for Remain. Indeed nearly all the mooted Tory rebels voted 3 times for Brexit.
It just means we need a sane Brexit, perhaps even Norway plus, and a review in 5 years over whether to diverge more or rejoin.
Too late. You and your kind have spent three years doing your damndest to nullify the largest democratic vote in British history.
Well, now you get your wish, it seems. You must own the consequences
Nah, I appreciate that you are new to this board, but from June 2016-18 I was advocating a Hard Brexit, then to rebuild relations with the EU afterwards. I think TSE is still of this mind. I changed my mind after the #PeoplesVote march in June 18.
Enjoy your “victory” over democracy. Pop some champagne! Have fun.
I've got to say that Boris Johnson looks unwell. The clammy, pallid look does not speak of a man in charge of events.
Everyone is looking like shit it seems to me. The stress I suppose.
LOL, after 7 weeks on the beach , they have to come in and sit on their fat arses and say a few words , after their subsidised lunch with champers. Hardly tough work.
Talking out of your uninformed nationalistic arse once again. A lot of MPs work very hard, and those that live a long way away (including Scots Nats) are separated from their families for long periods.
I am 4 weeks into a 3 month stint working away from home and family. If I did my job as badly as MPs do theirs I would find my contract terminated in a heartbeat. I have not one ounce of sympathy for any of them.
Well I don't know what you do Richard, but I do know a number of MPs, one of whom is one of the hardest working people I have ever met. I am also not convinced by the popular view that they are doing a bad job. The country is split, and it is their job to reflect that. People may not like it, but that is the way the system works. If Boris and his entryist cronies think they can get a big majority then good luck to them. I don't claim to be Nostradamus, or even HYUFD, but I predict another hung parliament.
I think you are probably right. For the record I work a lot more hours than any MP. And no I don't think many of them do a good job even though I too know half a dozen personally. Nor is this view anything to do with Brexit*. I have long thought we are poorly served by both our current political system and the people who operate it.
Edit. *I actually think Brexit has helped many MPs realise the failings of the party system so whatever their views on the matter at hand I hope they remember that feeling of independence and practice it more often but perhaps more wisely.
I wonder if the Lib Dems working with Corbyn is a poisoned chalice for them. Every Tory spokesperson on TV today has referred to the Corbyn remain alliance with other leaders or some such variation.
Boris was as poor as I can recall today coming under fire across the house and his blustering was hopeless.
In a GE he may do better but as far as I am concerned I want all these incompetent mps to face the electorate and let the voters decide
This HOC is finished and it is essential that Boris gets his GE for the 14th October
I am not even going to make any observation on the make up, I am past caring
I am with you Big G. It’s so depressing.
On Oct 14th, I understand it's a Jewish holy day of some sort, where they are expected to do no work. Apparently voting counts as work. Whether or not filling in a postal vote a few days before counts as working that day, I don't know, but given some religious (from any religion) rules I wouldn't be surprised if it it did.
Is it my imagination or does TMay have a "fuck you Boris" expression on her face?
No, of course not, I think someone just said something funny. May and Clarke didn't just sit there giggling all the way through it because of some uncontrollable schadenfreude inspired tic. They're not Dreyfuss out of Pink Panther.
It’s too late. Remainers scent total victory. They won’t hold back now.
Brace.
It is the pendulum effect and if that is true, the "fault" lies with the ERG and all the other tossers who thought they would position themselves one way in the referendum, and then as soon as they got their narrow victory thought they would stick bells and whistles on it and to hell with everyone else
This is the exact same thing both ways. Every two weeks we seem to go from hardline Brexiters popping champagne and laughing at their opponents to the direct opposite, then another two weeks and it flips back. No peace can ever be won with permanent subjugation and humiliation of your opponents.
Phillip Lee jumping onto that sinking ship like a pro
its a 2 horse race and the Libs and BXP are gonna get squeezed.
I suspect the LD vote will get a little smaller yet, but much more geographically concentrated. The key thing to note is that the No Deal/anti-No Deal shares remain virtually static.
Is it my imagination or does TMay have a "fuck you Boris" expression on her face?
No, of course not, I think someone just said something funny. May and Clarke didn't just sit there giggling all the way through it because of some uncontrollable schadenfreude inspired tic. They're not Dreyfuss out of Pink Panther.
That was when Boris was talking about being the only 2001 intake to support Clarke for leader
Boris was as poor as I can recall today coming under fire across the house and his blustering was hopeless.
In a GE he may do better but as far as I am concerned I want all these incompetent mps to face the electorate and let the voters decide
This HOC is finished and it is essential that Boris gets his GE for the 14th October
I am not even going to make any observation on the make up, I am past caring
I am with you Big G. It’s so depressing.
On Oct 14th, I understand it's a Jewish holy day of some sort, where they are expected to do no work. Apparently voting counts as work. Whether or not filling in a postal vote a few days before counts as working that day, I don't know, but given some religious (from any religion) rules I wouldn't be surprised if it it did.
Yes applying any logic to the rules of religion is the definition of a fool’s errand.
The problem is I can't trust any of these articles any more because every journalist is so strongly on one side or the other. Just a few days ago the mood music was that Boris was galloping to victory and Remainers were crushed. Now it is the reverse. I don't believe any of it.
I've got to say that Boris Johnson looks unwell. The clammy, pallid look does not speak of a man in charge of events.
Everyone is looking like shit it seems to me. The stress I suppose.
LOL, after 7 weeks on the beach , they have to come in and sit on their fat arses and say a few words , after their subsidised lunch with champers. Hardly tough work.
Talking out of your uninformed nationalistic arse once again. A lot of MPs work very hard, and those that live a long way away (including Scots Nats) are separated from their families for long periods.
I am 4 weeks into a 3 month stint working away from home and family. If I did my job as badly as MPs do theirs I would find my contract terminated in a heartbeat. I have not one ounce of sympathy for any of them.
Well I don't know what you do Richard, but I do know a number of MPs, one of whom is one of the hardest working people I have ever met. I am also not convinced by the popular view that they are doing a bad job. The country is split, and it is their job to reflect that. People may not like it, but that is the way the system works. If Boris and his entryist cronies think they can get a big majority then good luck to them. I don't claim to be Nostradamus, or even HYUFD, but I predict another hung parliament.
I think you are probably right. For the record I work a lot more hours than any MP. And no I don't think many of them do a good job even though I too know half a dozen personally. Nor is this view anything to do with Brexit*. I have long thought we are poorly served by both our current political system and the people who operate it.
Edit. *I actually think Brexit has helped many MPs realise the failings of the party system so whatever their views on the matter at hand I hope they remember that feeling of independence and practice it more often but perhaps more wisely.
Well I partially agree with you, as is often the case. However, a lot of the reason for it is the number of people who proudly "don't do politics". Personally I would prefer a proper separation of powers between the executive and the legislature, a house of commons with half the number of MPs and an elected Lords. This would have been far preferable to the low priority of exiting the EU. Brexit is the opiate of the masses.
By way of anecdote a work colleague from the North East said his father, a Leaver but a lifelong Labour voter who even voted Labour in 2015 and 2017, will vote Tory for the first time in his life out of fury that MPs are still blocking Boris delivering Brexit
Boris was as poor as I can recall today coming under fire across the house and his blustering was hopeless.
In a GE he may do better but as far as I am concerned I want all these incompetent mps to face the electorate and let the voters decide
This HOC is finished and it is essential that Boris gets his GE for the 14th October
I am not even going to make any observation on the make up, I am past caring
I am with you Big G. It’s so depressing.
On Oct 14th, I understand it's a Jewish holy day of some sort, where they are expected to do no work. Apparently voting counts as work. Whether or not filling in a postal vote a few days before counts as working that day, I don't know, but given some religious (from any religion) rules I wouldn't be surprised if it it did.
Yes applying any logic to the rules of religion is the definition of a fool’s errand.
You are ignoring millenia of Jewish and Islamic legal thought there. Even if you don't agree with the starting premises, it is fiercely logical.
By way of anecdote a work colleague from the North East said his father, a Leaver but a lifelong Labour voter who even voted Labour in 2015 and 2017, will vote Tory for the first time in his life out of fury that MPs are still blocking Boris delivering Brexit
keep clutching those straws! One has to admire your absurd optimism and selective gloating.
The problem is I can't trust any of these articles any more because every journalist is so strongly on one side or the other. Just a few days ago the mood music was that Boris was galloping to victory and Remainers were crushed. Now it is the reverse. I don't believe any of it.
Another very thin comfort blanket poll to get Tory loyalists through the impending night.
Even if we do have a election shortly I expect the various parties opinion poll shares to be an excellent imitation of the proverbial tarts knickers in the intervening time. And, TBH, if we all breathe a sigh of relief and sit tight until after Christmas I wouldn't expect things to be much different.
The problem is I can't trust any of these articles any more because every journalist is so strongly on one side or the other. Just a few days ago the mood music was that Boris was galloping to victory and Remainers were crushed. Now it is the reverse. I don't believe any of it.
This is why you come to PB, the home of fair and balanced articles on Brexit.
By way of anecdote a work colleague from the North East said his father, a Leaver but a lifelong Labour voter who even voted Labour in 2015 and 2017, will vote Tory for the first time in his life out of fury that MPs are still blocking Boris delivering Brexit
You need to assume heavy tactical voting. See my comment earlier. Even so, you still get a healthy majority. The only way I can see the Tories losing is a complete Labour collapse or a Brexit Party resurgence.
I did suggest that the LDs needed to be a broad church. Every party needs a few people with off message views. Unless you are the Conservative In Name Only Party, of course, where anyone that disagrees Cummy Biscuit will be shot.
It’s too late. Remainers scent total victory. They won’t hold back now.
Brace.
It is the pendulum effect and if that is true, the "fault" lies with the ERG and all the other tossers who thought they would position themselves one way in the referendum, and then as soon as they got their narrow victory thought they would stick bells and whistles on it and to hell with everyone else
Exactly. The defeat of the remain Goliath by the leave Davids in 2016 - much against everyone's expectations - was a necessary but not sufficient condition for the delivery of Brexit. The leavers had no clear plan for leaving and the remain forces, though shocked and cowed, were not completely vanquished - they felt that the narrowness of the result and the need to preserve national unity would lead the leavers to propose a soft Brexit - staying in the EU economic structure but leaving the political structure, the kind of Norway solution which many leavers had promoted during the referendum campaign.
But the victorious leavers overreached themselves - they thought that their victory had transformed them overnight into the political Goliaths who could impose their own extreme version of Brexit even though there was absolutely no evidence that it could command popular support. Even after this was made abundantly clear by the result of the 2017 election leavers pushed ahead making more and more absurd and unrealistic demands of the EU in the belief that the referendum result was a cast iron guarantee that the UK would leave in all circumstances. irrespective of the damage done in the process. All compromise was scorned, they were determined to force through no deal, and so now we have got to the position in which a deal is impossible and the only options open to us are a no deal departure or the collapse of Brexit. And the latter is now the most likely, it is very, very hard to see an election producing a parliament with a majority for no deal.
I can't believe I'm going to have to vote for Corbyn's Labour. Christ.
Nobody has to do anything. You are making a choice that you value the EU more than solidarity with your Jewish compatriots.
Yeah yeah. I am Jewish you imbecile.
If you are comfortable voting for someone that commemorates the murderers of Jewish civilians, you do that. Given how much of my family has been killed by anti-Semitism, I could never do that and have a clean conscience.
The problem is I can't trust any of these articles any more because every journalist is so strongly on one side or the other. Just a few days ago the mood music was that Boris was galloping to victory and Remainers were crushed. Now it is the reverse. I don't believe any of it.
Journalists want to sell papers and stories.
That's it.
I should point out that just a few days ago the complaint was that all the pb thread header writers were being contrarian in ridiculing Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings, just at the time that they were being portrayed as Trilby and Svengali.
The problem is I can't trust any of these articles any more because every journalist is so strongly on one side or the other. Just a few days ago the mood music was that Boris was galloping to victory and Remainers were crushed. Now it is the reverse. I don't believe any of it.
This is why you come to PB, the home of fair and balanced articles on Brexit.
By way of anecdote a work colleague from the North East said his father, a Leaver but a lifelong Labour voter who even voted Labour in 2015 and 2017, will vote Tory for the first time in his life out of fury that MPs are still blocking Boris delivering Brexit
keep clutching those straws! One has to admire your absurd optimism and selective gloating.
It’s too late. Remainers scent total victory. They won’t hold back now.
Brace.
It is the pendulum effect and if that is true, the "fault" lies with the ERG and all the other tossers who thought they would position themselves one way in the referendum, and then as soon as they got their narrow victory thought they would stick bells and whistles on it and to hell with everyone else
This is the exact same thing both ways. Every two weeks we seem to go from hardline Brexiters popping champagne and laughing at their opponents to the direct opposite, then another two weeks and it flips back. No peace can ever be won with permanent subjugation and humiliation of your opponents.
Indeed. I remember hearing a talk from Ted Heath on negotiation after he secured the release of the "human shields". he said you always have to give the other side the opportunity to save face. Makes you feel nostalgic for when we had proper statesmen.
I can't believe I'm going to have to vote for Corbyn's Labour. Christ.
Nobody has to do anything. You are making a choice that you value the EU more than solidarity with your Jewish compatriots.
Yeah yeah. I am Jewish you imbecile.
If you are comfortable voting for someone that commemorates the murderers of Jewish civilians, you do that. Given how much of my family has been killed by anti-Semitism, I could never do that and have a clean conscience.
If this is a culture war election I will be on the right side thank you.
According to the Guardian 'The prime minister would not expect people who have voted to take power away from this government and to hand it to the opposition, to be a Conservative candidate or a Conservative MP.'
And 'voting' apparently includes abstaining.
We could soon have almost as many ex-Tories as Tories in the House!
Whatever way Brexit winds up going (or even if it doesn't happen at all), I think our unwritten constitution is really showing the strain at the moment and is going to need a serious rethink. I think the bare minimum is:
1) Have a less "inventive" speaker for a while. Actually I don't especially blame Bercow for doing what he sees fit to keep power in Parliament's court, but politicising the position is dangerous for reasons given in this very good debut thread header. The irony is that a hyperactively inventive speaker who "does whatever is necessary" to give Parliament a stronger voice over the Executive, risks making it expedient for the next Speaker to be a mere political placeman - hobbling Parliament's power in the long run. That might be a risk worth taking during a period of deep legal and constitutional uncertainty but Bercow has been sailing very close to the wind and there's a case he has pushed things a little too far too often. His inventiveness might have received an easier reception had there been fewer suspicions about his impartiality. A new speaker who emphasises the apolitical nature of the role and who, while open to some progress in procedures, promises to tack closer to precedence, would do our democracy a lot of good and maybe calm things down again. My fear is that once the role becomes a political potato, it may be tricky to reverse that change.
2) Also topical at the moment, this Fixed Term Parliament Act is having some knock-on effects that I do not believe were intended, and which I believe are highly corrosive. What was intended to make hung parliaments more politically navigable (by making coalition agreements more easily binding) has in some ways made things worse, with zombie governments unable to function but perhaps unable to call an election either. The 2/3 supermajority thing has also always struck me as quite un-British - I've always hoped it wouldn't be used as a precedent to extend supermajorities into other areas.
3) There's an argument that politicians need to cool it with the referenda for a while. I like the fact that in theory they can break up political stitch-ups between the major parties, and I think e.g. Swiss voters get a much bigger voice about what their country should look like as a result of them, but in practice they don't seem to mesh well with our political system.We need to have a long hard re-think about referenda, how they're called, how they work (especially how "actionable" the question needs to be, access to Civil Service resources for both sides etc) and how both government and parliament should respond to the results.
By way of anecdote a work colleague from the North East said his father, a Leaver but a lifelong Labour voter who even voted Labour in 2015 and 2017, will vote Tory for the first time in his life out of fury that MPs are still blocking Boris delivering Brexit
Electoral Calculus shows Tory gains from the SNP in Scotland. That tells us all we need to know about Electoral Calculus.
Nevertheless the Tories really should win a majority, so I just don’t get where all this stuff about Brexit being over is coming from.
I'm actually not a fan of written constitutions, and I'm even less of a fan of the supposedly stark distinction between written and unwritten. In reality, big parts of the UK constitution are written (spread across many pieces of legislation rather than one single coherent document) and big parts of many other countries' constitutions are not actually in the big document that proclaims itself to be The Constitution - there are still other pieces of legislation with constitutional impact, and layer upon layer of precedent and practice.
But if constitutional matters don't get sorted out settle down over the next few years, I am going to become more deeply persuaded of the need for a written UK constitution. Won't stop brinkmanship or people pushing things to the limits, of course, but may make it clearer where exactly those limits are.
By way of anecdote a work colleague from the North East said his father, a Leaver but a lifelong Labour voter who even voted Labour in 2015 and 2017, will vote Tory for the first time in his life out of fury that MPs are still blocking Boris delivering Brexit
It beats me why Labour are still ahead of the LDs but that's how it is apparently.
Here we go... Opnion really starting to move ahead of the general election.
I'm not sure I trust any opinion polls anymore. A YouGov constituency poll would probably be it. In lieu of that i'd look at Brexit petition densities and local election results, but lots of error in both.
I just trust my gut which tells me results will follow demographics and values (not UNS) and constituency results could be all over the place with lots of nominal three way marginals thereafter.
The problem is I can't trust any of these articles any more because every journalist is so strongly on one side or the other. Just a few days ago the mood music was that Boris was galloping to victory and Remainers were crushed. Now it is the reverse. I don't believe any of it.
Journalists want to sell papers and stories.
That's it.
I should point out that just a few days ago the complaint was that all the pb thread header writers were being contrarian in ridiculing Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings, just at the time that they were being portrayed as Trilby and Svengali.
Even the article written by a Leaver was denounced as being written by Remoaners.
I can't believe I'm going to have to vote for Corbyn's Labour. Christ.
Nobody has to do anything. You are making a choice that you value the EU more than solidarity with your Jewish compatriots.
Yeah yeah. I am Jewish you imbecile.
If you are comfortable voting for someone that commemorates the murderers of Jewish civilians, you do that. Given how much of my family has been killed by anti-Semitism, I could never do that and have a clean conscience.
If this is a culture war election I will be on the right side thank you.
Quite funny to see Phllip Lee's justification for abstaining on same-sex marriage.
He thought marriage should be left to "churches, other religious institutions and humanist groups."
Apparently the man's never heard of register offices. Amazing how out-of-touch our masters can be.
It's a good example of the hurdles Conservatives have to go through to join the Lib Dems though.
I'd certainly never do so.
I don't think they'd expect you to have a same-sex marriage.
My point is they are still two very different parties with different sets of values.
Not really. The One Nation Conservative values are very similar to the Yellow Book LDs. There are very strong similarities. There is much more in common between these two and the authoritarian right wing that now dominates the Tory Party
Quite funny to see Phllip Lee's justification for abstaining on same-sex marriage.
He thought marriage should be left to "churches, other religious institutions and humanist groups."
Apparently the man's never heard of register offices. Amazing how out-of-touch our masters can be.
It's a good example of the hurdles Conservatives have to go through to join the Lib Dems though.
I'd certainly never do so.
I don't think they'd expect you to have a same-sex marriage.
My point is they are still two very different parties with different sets of values.
Not really. The One Nation Conservative values are very similar to the Yellow Book LDs. There are very strong similarities. There is much more in common between these two and the authoritarian right wing that now dominates the Tory Party
I'm actually not a fan of written constitutions, and I'm even less of a fan of the supposedly stark distinction between written and unwritten. In reality, big parts of the UK constitution are written (spread across many pieces of legislation rather than one single coherent document) and big parts of many other countries' constitutions are not actually in the big document that proclaims itself to be The Constitution - there are still other pieces of legislation with constitutional impact, and layer upon layer of precedent and practice.
But if constitutional matters don't get sorted out settle down over the next few years, I am going to become more deeply persuaded of the need for a written UK constitution. Won't stop brinkmanship or people pushing things to the limits, of course, but may make it clearer where exactly those limits are.
As I never tire of boring people - our constitution isn’t unwritten, it’s just uncodified
By way of anecdote a work colleague from the North East said his father, a Leaver but a lifelong Labour voter who even voted Labour in 2015 and 2017, will vote Tory for the first time in his life out of fury that MPs are still blocking Boris delivering Brexit
Electoral Calculus shows Tory gains from the SNP in Scotland. That tells us all we need to know about Electoral Calculus.
Nevertheless the Tories really should win a majority, so I just don’t get where all this stuff about Brexit being over is coming from.
I think as soon as the electorate cotton on to the fact the Tories are on course for a majority they will conspire such that the Tories do not get a majority.
Everything tells me that the Tories are in a very poor position and are widely unloved.
apologies if this has already been posted but I'm trying to organise my evening - does anyone have a potential timetable of events in the HoC this evening?
By way of anecdote a work colleague from the North East said his father, a Leaver but a lifelong Labour voter who even voted Labour in 2015 and 2017, will vote Tory for the first time in his life out of fury that MPs are still blocking Boris delivering Brexit
Electoral Calculus shows Tory gains from the SNP in Scotland. That tells us all we need to know about Electoral Calculus.
Nevertheless the Tories really should win a majority, so I just don’t get where all this stuff about Brexit being over is coming from.
There is an option to forecast Scotland separately to get a better forecast.
Comments
Invading army
Surrender
Get a grip "we are not at war with Europe"
Er, it was. By numbers.
In case you have not seen this.
Real Ale for me, and the odd single malt
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1168923257875181571
Edit. *I actually think Brexit has helped many MPs realise the failings of the party system so whatever their views on the matter at hand I hope they remember that feeling of independence and practice it more often but perhaps more wisely.
The markets are seeing no deal being binned for now and a GE that could change the narrative
I'd certainly never do so.
Tories 378, Labour 184, LDs 31.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=35&LAB=25&LIB=16&Brexit=11&Green=2&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
By way of anecdote a work colleague from the North East said his father, a Leaver but a lifelong Labour voter who even voted Labour in 2015 and 2017, will vote Tory for the first time in his life out of fury that MPs are still blocking Boris delivering Brexit
That's it.
And, TBH, if we all breathe a sigh of relief and sit tight until after Christmas I wouldn't expect things to be much different.
But the victorious leavers overreached themselves - they thought that their victory had transformed them overnight into the political Goliaths who could impose their own extreme version of Brexit even though there was absolutely no evidence that it could command popular support. Even after this was made abundantly clear by the result of the 2017 election leavers pushed ahead making more and more absurd and unrealistic demands of the EU in the belief that the referendum result was a cast iron guarantee that the UK would leave in all circumstances. irrespective of the damage done in the process. All compromise was scorned, they were determined to force through no deal, and so now we have got to the position in which a deal is impossible and the only options open to us are a no deal departure or the collapse of Brexit. And the latter is now the most likely, it is very, very hard to see an election producing a parliament with a majority for no deal.
Or Lab. committed to a Referendum
And 'voting' apparently includes abstaining.
We could soon have almost as many ex-Tories as Tories in the House!
1) Have a less "inventive" speaker for a while. Actually I don't especially blame Bercow for doing what he sees fit to keep power in Parliament's court, but politicising the position is dangerous for reasons given in this very good debut thread header. The irony is that a hyperactively inventive speaker who "does whatever is necessary" to give Parliament a stronger voice over the Executive, risks making it expedient for the next Speaker to be a mere political placeman - hobbling Parliament's power in the long run. That might be a risk worth taking during a period of deep legal and constitutional uncertainty but Bercow has been sailing very close to the wind and there's a case he has pushed things a little too far too often. His inventiveness might have received an easier reception had there been fewer suspicions about his impartiality. A new speaker who emphasises the apolitical nature of the role and who, while open to some progress in procedures, promises to tack closer to precedence, would do our democracy a lot of good and maybe calm things down again. My fear is that once the role becomes a political potato, it may be tricky to reverse that change.
2) Also topical at the moment, this Fixed Term Parliament Act is having some knock-on effects that I do not believe were intended, and which I believe are highly corrosive. What was intended to make hung parliaments more politically navigable (by making coalition agreements more easily binding) has in some ways made things worse, with zombie governments unable to function but perhaps unable to call an election either. The 2/3 supermajority thing has also always struck me as quite un-British - I've always hoped it wouldn't be used as a precedent to extend supermajorities into other areas.
3) There's an argument that politicians need to cool it with the referenda for a while. I like the fact that in theory they can break up political stitch-ups between the major parties, and I think e.g. Swiss voters get a much bigger voice about what their country should look like as a result of them, but in practice they don't seem to mesh well with our political system.We need to have a long hard re-think about referenda, how they're called, how they work (especially how "actionable" the question needs to be, access to Civil Service resources for both sides etc) and how both government and parliament should respond to the results.
Nevertheless the Tories really should win a majority, so I just don’t get where all this stuff about Brexit being over is coming from.
But if constitutional matters don't get sorted out settle down over the next few years, I am going to become more deeply persuaded of the need for a written UK constitution. Won't stop brinkmanship or people pushing things to the limits, of course, but may make it clearer where exactly those limits are.
I just trust my gut which tells me results will follow demographics and values (not UNS) and constituency results could be all over the place with lots of nominal three way marginals thereafter.
Everything tells me that the Tories are in a very poor position and are widely unloved.