Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Cummings & Johnson strategy could well be dubbed as the ch

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited September 4 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Cummings & Johnson strategy could well be dubbed as the charge of the light in the head brigade

Tonight's @YouGov poll on Scotland for @thetimesscot. Tories down to 3 seats in Scotland as the SNP surge to 51 seats in Westminster election. https://t.co/Ya700pzFuL pic.twitter.com/wkrCSsYDwI

Read the full story here


«13456715

Comments

  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 1,647
    Sacrificing some of your MPs make sense if they're never going to vote with you. Like so many things, better out than in.
  • kyf_100 said:

    Sacrificing some of your MPs make sense if they're never going to vote with you. Like so many things, better out than in.

    Sacrificing Ross Thompson? There's also quite a few pro No Deal MPs in England who are vulnerable with this strategy.
  • It is raining at Old Trafford.

    Bravo ECB.

    Yes, I know saying it is raining in Greater Manchester is like saying water is wet.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,549
    edited September 4
    kyf_100 said:

    Sacrificing some of your MPs make sense if they're never going to vote with you. Like so many things, better out than in.

    Until the next round of purges, Let the tumbrils roll...

    Revolutions usually end by devouring themselves.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,167
    You get the feeling that the Tory party will wake up at some point realising what the hell it has done to itself. The only question is will it be too late to do anything about it.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,385
    my great great great great uncle took part in the charge of the light brigade

    survived it too
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 26,696
    Tory activists are going to be very much up for the election fight.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,982
    FPT
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    » show previous quotes
    As you know Malc, the time comes when a single party dominating the government over years (SNP) and here in Wales (labour) sees the shine eventually coming off and disenchantment sets in.

    I expect labour to continue to decline in Wales as they have been in power so long, and with our NHS and Education on it's knees the resentment is tangible

    Labour have done the same to Wales as they did in Scotland previously. Scotland under SNP on the other hand is looking better and hard to see any change of government in the long term, 12 years and more popular than ever is a good record.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 50,091
    Jonathan said:

    You get the feeling that the Tory party will wake up at some point realising what the hell it has done to itself. The only question is will it be too late to do anything about it.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,167

    Tory activists are going to be very much up for the election fight.

    What election?
    What activists?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,337
    Not much point having a whipping system if you're just going to let your mps hamstring the executive at will. For all the talk of the brave rebels sacrificing for the country, the government has made itself unable to govern long term for what it believes is right for the country. Sacrifice all round but no progress. Election!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,385
    edited September 4
    Scott_P said:

    Jonathan said:

    You get the feeling that the Tory party will wake up at some point realising what the hell it has done to itself. The only question is will it be too late to do anything about it.

    with Soames gone does that mean there are now two seats free ?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,118
    So - other than Boris losing his first vote, his majority and 21 of his own MPs on only his second day before Parliament - have I missed anything much?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,081
    edited September 4
    FPT
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I don't understand those who think we can get a referendum without a GE, I don't see where the numbers in parliament are for that.

    Lab 247 - x
    Ind 36 - y
    SNP 35
    LD 15
    Ind Group For Change 5
    PC 4
    Greens 1
    Speaker 1
    z
    = 309 - x - y + z

    Con 289 - z
    DUP 10
    x
    y
    = 299 + x + y - z

    Not a slam-dunk but it might pass. z could be quite big if it promises to get Brexit over with one way or another.

    X > 25 (https://news.sky.com/story/labour-mps-warn-jeremy-corbyn-against-supporting-a-second-brexit-referendum-11684197)
    And Y > 0.
    That means Z needs to be at least 20. Seems a stretch.
    That's a useful data point but I don't think signing a letter saying they don't think Labour should take the position of backing a new referendum (back in April, many many news cycles ago) proves that they'd defy the whip and vote against it if Corbyn had done the negotiation, and agreeing to it would get the thing done one way or another. This is especially true if the alternative is to collapse the government and have a new election resulting in either trying the same vote again under Corbyn or getting Boris, who runs on No Deal, which the same people generally also oppose.
  • The liberal party became a third party in the 1920s. Is it possible the same could happen to the conservatives in the 2020s?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,733
    Scott_P said:
    Cowardly Corbyn Frit! :D
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,337

    Scott_P said:

    Jonathan said:

    You get the feeling that the Tory party will wake up at some point realising what the hell it has done to itself. The only question is will it be too late to do anything about it.

    with Soames gone does that mean there are now two seats free ?
    Soames, burt and greening all available seats
  • Scott_P said:

    Jonathan said:

    You get the feeling that the Tory party will wake up at some point realising what the hell it has done to itself. The only question is will it be too late to do anything about it.

    Headbangers having their revenge but we wait for the grown ups to return
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,387
    Actually the Con+BXP+UKIP vote isn't very different from 2017 (about 25%). Big drop in Labour vote share. Gains split between SNP and LDs.

    Little prospect of another referendum going to the Union IMO. 25% is nowhere near what you need. The LDs and Labour aren't going to support the Conservatives in this.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182
    Has this taken into account first time incumbency bonus?

    I'd have thought if the Tories still poll at more than 20% they will cling on to 5 or 6 seats.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,626
    edited September 4
    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    » show previous quotes
    As you know Malc, the time comes when a single party dominating the government over years (SNP) and here in Wales (labour) sees the shine eventually coming off and disenchantment sets in.

    I expect labour to continue to decline in Wales as they have been in power so long, and with our NHS and Education on it's knees the resentment is tangible

    Labour have done the same to Wales as they did in Scotland previously. Scotland under SNP on the other hand is looking better and hard to see any change of government in the long term, 12 years and more popular than ever is a good record.

    The Scottish people will never tire of St Greta of Govan and her green helicopter rides. Whether the named person scheme, high taxes or Gaelic language on police cars to Lyra McKee’s murderers marching through the FM’s constituency to rapey leaders - the voters are ever tire of the woundrous SNP.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952
    OK, I’ve had time to digest everything (including a very nice Greek breakfast, in the Arcadian sun - who knew fresh figs go so well with blue cheese?).

    I’ve been trying to reconcile my beliefs that 1 Boris will benefit from a surge in patriotic support, but that 2, Brexit will now, probably, be stopped

    I see it this way. Unless Boris finds a way to dodge the rebel vote, or push us over the No Deal cliff anyway (possible but unlikely) we are headed for a GE with Brexit unresolved.

    In that election I expect Boris to increase his vote share, even from his present elevated polling, squeezing the BXP in particular. The patriot thing. However I also expect the SNP and LDs to take seats off him and Labour seats will prove hard to crack. Tactical voting and other factors will see the return of the inefficient Tory vote.

    Result? Another hung parliament, yet this time it will produce a minority Corbyn government, offering another referendum. God help us.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,081
    kyf_100 said:

    Sacrificing some of your MPs make sense if they're never going to vote with you. Like so many things, better out than in.

    What if they nearly always vote for you, and have done for decades, and would continue to always vote for you, except on this one issue?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,673
    Meanwhile, the court cases about prorogation continue. Don't forget them. If the government loses one of those, another applecart gets overturned.

    It seems quite likely, given that those cases might well be appealed to the Supreme Court, that the government might need to give court undertakings not to prorogue before 12 September, the end of the window, so that the court process can be exhausted. If so, that gives everyone a couple more days to play with.
  • Cyclefree said:

    So - other than Boris losing his first vote, his majority and 21 of his own MPs on only his second day before Parliament - have I missed anything much?

    According to HYUFD it was all a masterstroke! The man is clearly a genius
  • malcolmg said:

    FPT
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    » show previous quotes
    As you know Malc, the time comes when a single party dominating the government over years (SNP) and here in Wales (labour) sees the shine eventually coming off and disenchantment sets in.

    I expect labour to continue to decline in Wales as they have been in power so long, and with our NHS and Education on it's knees the resentment is tangible

    Labour have done the same to Wales as they did in Scotland previously. Scotland under SNP on the other hand is looking better and hard to see any change of government in the long term, 12 years and more popular than ever is a good record.

    I agree that the SNP are there to stay for many years but that does not exempt them from being unpopular and as shown in today's poll there is no certainty that the Scots will vote to break up the Union, (despite Rees Moggs best effort)s
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,167
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Cowardly Corbyn Frit! :D
    Hmmmm. Corbyn shows all the fear of an executioner choosing when to drop the axe on Boris’ neck. Patience Boris, release will come soon enough!
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,337
    How exactly do labour think they will get the election they say they want if they refuse to vote for it? And how do they honestly think this looks to the electorate?
  • Scott_P said:

    Jonathan said:

    You get the feeling that the Tory party will wake up at some point realising what the hell it has done to itself. The only question is will it be too late to do anything about it.

    with Soames gone does that mean there are now two seats free ?
    Come on Ruth. You know you want to
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182
    Jonathan said:

    You get the feeling that the Tory party will wake up at some point realising what the hell it has done to itself. The only question is will it be too late to do anything about it.

    Probably.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,168

    Meanwhile, the court cases about prorogation continue. Don't forget them. If the government loses one of those, another applecart gets overturned.

    It seems quite likely, given that those cases might well be appealed to the Supreme Court, that the government might need to give court undertakings not to prorogue before 12 September, the end of the window, so that the court process can be exhausted. If so, that gives everyone a couple more days to play with.

    The proroguing controversy already feels like ancient history. Events are moving very fast
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,435
    Jonathan said:

    Tory activists are going to be very much up for the election fight.

    What election?
    What activists?
    It won’t surprise many to find that @MarqueeMark is more in line with Tory activist motivations and opinions than @Jonathan

    People who were reluctant just months ago are coming back - and people who have never helped have signed up too.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,213
    Surely the sensible thing is just to pass that special bill enabling an early election on a specified date as soon as possible.

    For the past year an obstacle in the way of sorting this out has been that the crazies in the Tory party didn't want an election because it might jeopardise Brexit. Now they are reconciled to an election, the people can decide.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182
    Jonathan said:

    Tory activists are going to be very much up for the election fight.

    What election?
    What activists?
    I'm not lifting a finger for Boris.

    I might still vote for Damian Hinds (my MP) though.
  • Tory activists are going to be very much up for the election fight.

    About 1/3 will not be. They tended to be the more knowledgeable ones that marshalled the rest.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,385
    Scott_P said:
    600m wont even cope with Irelands beef farmers

    spin
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,673

    Meanwhile, the court cases about prorogation continue. Don't forget them. If the government loses one of those, another applecart gets overturned.

    It seems quite likely, given that those cases might well be appealed to the Supreme Court, that the government might need to give court undertakings not to prorogue before 12 September, the end of the window, so that the court process can be exhausted. If so, that gives everyone a couple more days to play with.

    The proroguing controversy already feels like ancient history. Events are moving very fast
    As I say, don't forget it. It may remain highly relevant.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952
    Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Cowardly Corbyn Frit! :D
    Hmmmm. Corbyn shows all the fear of an executioner choosing when to drop the axe on Boris’ neck. Patience Boris, release will come soon enough!
    But how long will Corbyn’s unCorbyn-like restraint last? A day? Three days? Til Monday?
  • Jonathan said:

    You get the feeling that the Tory party will wake up at some point realising what the hell it has done to itself. The only question is will it be too late to do anything about it.

    I fear from my perspective that it is too late
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,081

    The liberal party became a third party in the 1920s. Is it possible the same could happen to the conservatives in the 2020s?

    I know things can move fast but this seems hard to reconcile with their current double-figure polling leads. Arguably if they'd done No Deal that might have been the outcome, but if it gets blocked and they're running as the champions of the narked-off people who wanted it I don't think they're collapsing anywhere.
  • Cyclefree said:

    So - other than Boris losing his first vote, his majority and 21 of his own MPs on only his second day before Parliament - have I missed anything much?

    My resignation maybe
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,167
    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tory activists are going to be very much up for the election fight.

    What election?
    What activists?
    It won’t surprise many to find that @MarqueeMark is more in line with Tory activist motivations and opinions than @Jonathan

    People who were reluctant just months ago are coming back - and people who have never helped have signed up too.
    No evidence of that round here with people like David Herdson sitting it out. Enjoy Moggmentum.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,673
    Byronic said:

    OK, I’ve had time to digest everything (including a very nice Greek breakfast, in the Arcadian sun - who knew fresh figs go so well with blue cheese?).

    Isn't this common knowledge? Fresh figs go really well with blue cheese. Honey completes the perfection.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 2,247
    edited September 4
    Scott_P said:
    Have labour been here before? Will Jo be marching in step?

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,673


    I agree with the professor. But it appears that there are galaxy brains out there who know better.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Cowardly Corbyn Frit! :D
    It is a pretty crap strategy when even Mr Thicky doesn't fall for it ;)
  • It is raining at Old Trafford.

    Bravo ECB.

    Yes, I know saying it is raining in Greater Manchester is like saying water is wet.

    People on this forum really need to learn to read a radar. It will soon stop.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,823
    My Tory baseline for the upcoming GE is 300, ie. what they had until yesterday, minus 10 in Scotland. Wales doesn't offer much scope, so they need approx 25 gains in England. This only needs a swing of 2-3% so right now Johnson looks like a shoo-in. Assuming that Farage doesn't stand in Johnson's way, Swinson and the Greens have some hard thinking to do. In particular Swinson. She's tried to talk tough about Corbyn but I can't see how a clear Johnson victory can be avoided unless she effectively bans LibDem campaigning in Lab-Con 2-way marginals.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,549

    How exactly do labour think they will get the election they say they want if they refuse to vote for it? And how do they honestly think this looks to the electorate?

    I don't think there is much desire by the public for a GE, on either side. It is just political nerds harping on at it.

    It would produce some nice betting opportunities though.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952

    Byronic said:

    OK, I’ve had time to digest everything (including a very nice Greek breakfast, in the Arcadian sun - who knew fresh figs go so well with blue cheese?).

    Isn't this common knowledge? Fresh figs go really well with blue cheese. Honey completes the perfection.
    New to me, I confess. I know fruit like cherries and pears go well with multiple cheeses, but the figs and blue cheese thing is a modest revelation. I’ve obviously led a cloistered life.
  • Always suspected the Lords could and would filibuster. Another twist.

    https://order-order.com/2019/09/04/revealed-lords-plan-block-remainer-legislation/
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,751
    Scott_P said:
    Yes, Cummings’s wheezes have given Labour no end of excuses for holding off from a GE and making Boris stew in it. I doubt they’ll be putting Boris out of his misery any time soon.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,213



    I agree with the professor. But it appears that there are galaxy brains out there who know better.

    But hasn't this whole sorry story been the result of politicians from Cameron onwards putting - or rather trying to put - party advantage above the public good?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 954
    Just about to reply to Byronic but if all the Johnson cheerleaders are left with is to deride Corbyn for holding off until the A50 extension Act is passed ... wow that tells you how deeply desperate they are.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,549

    Meanwhile, the court cases about prorogation continue. Don't forget them. If the government loses one of those, another applecart gets overturned.

    It seems quite likely, given that those cases might well be appealed to the Supreme Court, that the government might need to give court undertakings not to prorogue before 12 September, the end of the window, so that the court process can be exhausted. If so, that gives everyone a couple more days to play with.

    The proroguing controversy already feels like ancient history. Events are moving very fast
    It will become very newsworthy again when it starts, and we have Bozo as a dictator until Oct 14th.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,385
    Dadge said:

    My Tory baseline for the upcoming GE is 300, ie. what they had until yesterday, minus 10 in Scotland. Wales doesn't offer much scope, so they need approx 25 gains in England. This only needs a swing of 2-3% so right now Johnson looks like a shoo-in. Assuming that Farage doesn't stand in Johnson's way, Swinson and the Greens have some hard thinking to do. In particular Swinson. She's tried to talk tough about Corbyn but I can't see how a clear Johnson victory can be avoided unless she effectively bans LibDem campaigning in Lab-Con 2-way marginals.

    The risk for Swinson is Jezza doing his sphinx act to get labour remain voters back. Last poll I saw wasnt encouraging for her, but it is just a poll.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182
    Scott_P said:
    Due to various brainfarts and inept moves the Tory party seems to have shed nearly 40 MPs since its highwater mark four years ago, which wasn't enough for its full agenda then.
  • glwglw Posts: 5,372
    Jonathan said:

    You get the feeling that the Tory party will wake up at some point realising what the hell it has done to itself. The only question is will it be too late to do anything about it.

    Labour are in essentially the same boat, and appear to be sound asleep. Maybe we don't need these two parties any more?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,337
    Foxy said:

    How exactly do labour think they will get the election they say they want if they refuse to vote for it? And how do they honestly think this looks to the electorate?

    I don't think there is much desire by the public for a GE, on either side. It is just political nerds harping on at it.

    It would produce some nice betting opportunities though.
    I agree theres little desire for one but there is a sense that the country must be governed and the current deadlock is untenable and as su h we might need o e even if we dont want one
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,823
    Handy list of Tory target seats for your GE sweepstake... http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,496

    Has this taken into account first time incumbency bonus?

    I'd have thought if the Tories still poll at more than 20% they will cling on to 5 or 6 seats.

    You're only talking Scotland right?
  • Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tory activists are going to be very much up for the election fight.

    What election?
    What activists?
    It won’t surprise many to find that @MarqueeMark is more in line with Tory activist motivations and opinions than @Jonathan

    People who were reluctant just months ago are coming back - and people who have never helped have signed up too.
    No evidence of that round here with people like David Herdson sitting it out. Enjoy Moggmentum.
    I am an ex constituency party executive member, and voted Conservative in every GE since I was a student (I am in my 50s). I will not vote for the new CINO Party. The Conservative Party that I served is dead. RIP
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    edited September 4
    I disagree, on the latest Yougov the Tories will still win more seats in Scotland than they did at any general election from 1997 to 2017. The Tories are also winning 6% of 2017 Labour voters with Yougov while only losing 1% of 2017 Tory voters to Labour and Labour is also losing 8% of 2017 Labour voters to the Brexit Party too all of which adds up to a clear swing from Labour to the Tories in Labour Leave seats even if Corbyn reduces the loss of 2017 Labour voters to the LDs and Greens
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,566
    Jonathan said:

    Tory activists are going to be very much up for the election fight.

    What election?
    What activists?
    What Tory party ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182

    Has this taken into account first time incumbency bonus?

    I'd have thought if the Tories still poll at more than 20% they will cling on to 5 or 6 seats.

    You're only talking Scotland right?
    Ha. Yes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    Agree though that it is bad news for the SNP that despite Brexit 51% of Scottish voters would still vote to stay in the UK
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,385
    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tory activists are going to be very much up for the election fight.

    What election?
    What activists?
    What Tory party ?
    Are you saying the LDs will win more seats ?
  • eekeek Posts: 5,520

    Always suspected the Lords could and would filibuster. Another twist.

    https://order-order.com/2019/09/04/revealed-lords-plan-block-remainer-legislation/

    Well that's the Lords finally going to be reformed come the next non-Tory government
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,213

    Always suspected the Lords could and would filibuster. Another twist.

    https://order-order.com/2019/09/04/revealed-lords-plan-block-remainer-legislation/

    It's a puzzle, but it seems likeliest that Johnson wants to seem to be forced into an election, so perhaps it's just a question of putting on a good show.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,337
    If the Lords scupper Benn via these mass amendments then its Boris back in the driving seat as prorogation would mean no extension will be requested at the EU summit, and any offer of one refused and Corbyns refusal of a GE will look rather silly.
    Big if though
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,823

    Byronic said:

    OK, I’ve had time to digest everything (including a very nice Greek breakfast, in the Arcadian sun - who knew fresh figs go so well with blue cheese?).

    Isn't this common knowledge? Fresh figs go really well with blue cheese. Honey completes the perfection.
    I wager this is what JRM was thinking as he lolled on the Commons bench,
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,385
    eek said:

    Always suspected the Lords could and would filibuster. Another twist.

    https://order-order.com/2019/09/04/revealed-lords-plan-block-remainer-legislation/

    Well that's the Lords finally going to be reformed come the next non-Tory government
    Everyone threatens electoral reform until they get in to power. Then they find they like the system that got them there.
  • HYUFD said:

    Agree though that it is bad news for the SNP that despite Brexit 51% of Scottish voters would still vote to stay in the UK

    For a separatist party 49% is fine, it is well within the margin of error and they only need to win one referendum whereas unionists need to win every referendum.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 954
    edited September 4
    Byronic said:

    OK, I’ve had time to digest everything (including a very nice Greek breakfast, in the Arcadian sun - who knew fresh figs go so well with blue cheese?).

    I’ve been trying to reconcile my beliefs that 1 Boris will benefit from a surge in patriotic support, but that 2, Brexit will now, probably, be stopped

    I see it this way. Unless Boris finds a way to dodge the rebel vote, or push us over the No Deal cliff anyway (possible but unlikely) we are headed for a GE with Brexit unresolved.

    In that election I expect Boris to increase his vote share, even from his present elevated polling, squeezing the BXP in particular. The patriot thing. However I also expect the SNP and LDs to take seats off him and Labour seats will prove hard to crack. Tactical voting and other factors will see the return of the inefficient Tory vote.

    Result? Another hung parliament, yet this time it will produce a minority Corbyn government, offering another referendum. God help us.

    A tremendous thread header by TSE.

    Byronic you're a bit more sensible, less manic, when you're sober. Presumably we have an hour or two's grace?

    I'd like to find myself agreeing with this post but I still think you're only half right. First, I'm sceptical that Johnson will benefit from a 'patriotic surge.' He already looks like a loser. He's out of control. He has an idiot advising him. He's alienated a significant part of his party. He looks far from a sure touch. And in a 5 or 6 week campaign he is going to look like the fool he is. Most of us on here have seen through the magician's sleight of hand. It's only a matter of time until the public do. Though calling Johnson a magician is an insult to them.

    Second, a disunited party never wins elections. And, oh boy, is this tory party riven. During an election campaign? All hell will break loose. You just wait and see. It will be civil war in front of the British people.

    So, given those things, you seriously believe that Johnson will poll more Thant 42.4%?

    42.4%!!! That's what Mrs May got in 2017 and you seriously think he will increase that voteshare?!

    Edit. Just seen you are referencing it to his current polling. Which brings us back to the thread header by TSE. If he's falling off Mrs May's polling level, where is he going to gain these seats? The Labour heartland ...? If that's Cummings' strategy he's a moron.
  • eekeek Posts: 5,520

    eek said:

    Always suspected the Lords could and would filibuster. Another twist.

    https://order-order.com/2019/09/04/revealed-lords-plan-block-remainer-legislation/

    Well that's the Lords finally going to be reformed come the next non-Tory government
    Everyone threatens electoral reform until they get in to power. Then they find they like the system that got them there.
    That's why I suspect we will get Lords reform - it's less painful than changing our FPTP system..
  • HYUFD said:

    I disagree, on the latest Yougov the Tories will still win more seats in Scotland than they did at any general election from 1997 to 2017. The Tories are also winning 6% of 2017 Labour voters with Yougov while only losing 1% of 2017 Tory voters to Labour and Labour is also losing 8% of 2017 Labour voters to the Brexit Party too all of which adds up to a clear swing from Labour to the Tories in Labour Leave seats even if Corbyn reduces the loss of 2017 Labour voters to the LDs and Greens

    Your post last night really made me laugh. It was your best yet (the one about it being a tactical triumph for Boris!!!). Sadly I couldn't applaud as I didn't have time. But well done. Your mentor Comical Ali has nothing on you
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,571
    Revenge is sweet.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 2,247
    edited September 4
    Nerd question.

    If I read it correctly the proposal today will be a 10 Minute Rule Bill.

    So was there something in the gumf yesterday to prevent a single call of "Object" killing it? An amendment to Standing Orders?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,566

    How exactly do labour think they will get the election they say they want if they refuse to vote for it? And how do they honestly think this looks to the electorate?


    I think they are pretty clear on this (which makes a change) - if today's bill makes it into law, they will vote for an election immediately.
  • If the Lords scupper Benn via these mass amendments then its Boris back in the driving seat as prorogation would mean no extension will be requested at the EU summit, and any offer of one refused and Corbyns refusal of a GE will look rather silly.
    Big if though

    It is amazing people think Hammond and Clarke have sacrificed their careers for this bill but will let the PM destroy it in the Lords. They would simply change the PM if forced to by further shenanigans. It is obvious. The bill will pass and become law. The interesting question is who will be PM when it happens.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,435
    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tory activists are going to be very much up for the election fight.

    What election?
    What activists?
    It won’t surprise many to find that @MarqueeMark is more in line with Tory activist motivations and opinions than @Jonathan

    People who were reluctant just months ago are coming back - and people who have never helped have signed up too.
    No evidence of that round here with people like David Herdson sitting it out. Enjoy Moggmentum.
    PB is not the Tory party, or the country.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,385
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Always suspected the Lords could and would filibuster. Another twist.

    https://order-order.com/2019/09/04/revealed-lords-plan-block-remainer-legislation/

    Well that's the Lords finally going to be reformed come the next non-Tory government
    Everyone threatens electoral reform until they get in to power. Then they find they like the system that got them there.
    That's why I suspect we will get Lords reform - it's less painful than changing our FPTP system..
    well Blair dabbled but didnt do it, nor did Cameron and Clegg, I remain skeptical though it is long overdue.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,713

    Byronic said:

    OK, I’ve had time to digest everything (including a very nice Greek breakfast, in the Arcadian sun - who knew fresh figs go so well with blue cheese?).

    Isn't this common knowledge? Fresh figs go really well with blue cheese. Honey completes the perfection.
    Indeed. I thought Byronic was supposed to be a sybarite.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182
    eek said:

    Always suspected the Lords could and would filibuster. Another twist.

    https://order-order.com/2019/09/04/revealed-lords-plan-block-remainer-legislation/

    Well that's the Lords finally going to be reformed come the next non-Tory government
    The Government don't have a majority in the Lords, and a number of Tory peers they do have are rather pro Remain, so I don't see how they can filibuster it out. The Lords could just guillotine the debates and votes.
  • ..and I don't think she has yet had the last laugh. The extremists may have overplayed themselves somewhat. It is like one of those games allegedly played in dorms at Eton. Boris will get to eat the biscuit
  • Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tory activists are going to be very much up for the election fight.

    What election?
    What activists?
    It won’t surprise many to find that @MarqueeMark is more in line with Tory activist motivations and opinions than @Jonathan

    People who were reluctant just months ago are coming back - and people who have never helped have signed up too.
    No evidence of that round here with people like David Herdson sitting it out. Enjoy Moggmentum.
    PB is not the Tory party, or the country.

    1 in 3 tory voters were original remainers. His association just reselected Hammond only to have the PM take away their choice.

    The idea that all Tory activists are delighted about an election is a bit strange given those facts. Some will be, others will be in despair.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,571
    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    » show previous quotes
    As you know Malc, the time comes when a single party dominating the government over years (SNP) and here in Wales (labour) sees the shine eventually coming off and disenchantment sets in.

    I expect labour to continue to decline in Wales as they have been in power so long, and with our NHS and Education on it's knees the resentment is tangible

    Labour have done the same to Wales as they did in Scotland previously. Scotland under SNP on the other hand is looking better and hard to see any change of government in the long term, 12 years and more popular than ever is a good record.

    12 years in government and still popular. Unique in contemporary European politics, probably in world politics.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,823

    The liberal party became a third party in the 1920s. Is it possible the same could happen to the conservatives in the 2020s?

    I know things can move fast but this seems hard to reconcile with their current double-figure polling leads. Arguably if they'd done No Deal that might have been the outcome, but if it gets blocked and they're running as the champions of the narked-off people who wanted it I don't think they're collapsing anywhere.
    We saw them at 9% just a few short months ago. The Tories have spent 3 years selling themselves as the party of Brexit, so I think that if Brexit is a washout in whatever way (i.e. no Brexit, soft Brexit or bad Brexit), they'll take the flak and the Tory vote will crumble in the next few years.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,566

    Tory activists are going to be very much up for the election fight.

    About 1/3 will not be. They tended to be the more knowledgeable ones that marshalled the rest.
    For example..
    https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/ex-yorkshire-tory-association-chairman-says-he-is-politically-homeless-as-he-quits-party-after-24-years-1-9922447
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,571

    HYUFD said:

    Agree though that it is bad news for the SNP that despite Brexit 51% of Scottish voters would still vote to stay in the UK

    For a separatist party 49% is fine, it is well within the margin of error and they only need to win one referendum whereas unionists need to win every referendum.
    Well quite.

    Over 50 countries have abandoned London rule. None of them has ever applied to rejoin.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952

    Byronic said:

    OK, I’ve had time to digest everything (including a very nice Greek breakfast, in the Arcadian sun - who knew fresh figs go so well with blue cheese?).

    I’ve been trying to reconcile my beliefs that 1 Boris will benefit from a surge in patriotic support, but that 2, Brexit will now, probably, be stopped

    I see it this way. Unless Boris finds a way to dodge the rebel vote, or push us over the No Deal cliff anyway (possible but unlikely) we are headed for a GE with Brexit unresolved.

    In that election I expect Boris to increase his vote share, even from his present elevated polling, squeezing the BXP in particular. The patriot thing. However I also expect the SNP and LDs to take seats off him and Labour seats will prove hard to crack. Tactical voting and other factors will see the return of the inefficient Tory vote.

    Result? Another hung parliament, yet this time it will produce a minority Corbyn government, offering another referendum. God help us.

    A tremendous thread header by TSE.

    Byronic you're a bit more sensible, less manic, when you're sober. Presumably we have an hour or two's grace?

    I'd like to find myself agreeing with this post but I still think you're only half right. First, I'm sceptical that Johnson will benefit from a 'patriotic surge.' He already looks like a loser. He's out of control. He has an idiot advising him. He's alienated a significant part of his party. He looks far from a sure touch. And in a 5 or 6 week campaign he is going to look like the fool he is. Most of us on here have seen through the magician's sleight of hand. It's only a matter of time until the public do. Though calling Johnson a magician is an insult to them.

    Second, a disunited party never wins elections. And, oh boy, is this tory party riven. During an election campaign? All hell will break loose. You just wait and see. It will be civil war in front of the British people.

    So, given those things, you seriously believe that Johnson will poll more Thant 42.4%?

    42.4%!!! That's what Mrs May got in 2017 and you seriously think he will increase that voteshare?!
    Perhaps I wasn’t clear enough in my post. I was typing on an iPad in hot sun, under a Byzantine palace, with a hunk of Maniot salt cured pork in my other hand. Not ideal.

    I said, albeit a bit incoherently, that Boris will improve his vote EVEN FROM HIS PRESENT POLLING

    What I meant by that, was this: he could get 36% or even 37%. Well above what the present polls suggest, which is ~33%. But it won’t be enough.

    I agree he will not get anywhere near 42%
  • eekeek Posts: 5,520

    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    » show previous quotes
    As you know Malc, the time comes when a single party dominating the government over years (SNP) and here in Wales (labour) sees the shine eventually coming off and disenchantment sets in.

    I expect labour to continue to decline in Wales as they have been in power so long, and with our NHS and Education on it's knees the resentment is tangible

    Labour have done the same to Wales as they did in Scotland previously. Scotland under SNP on the other hand is looking better and hard to see any change of government in the long term, 12 years and more popular than ever is a good record.

    12 years in government and still popular. Unique in contemporary European politics, probably in world politics.
    Fully understandable if you believe (as I do) that people vote for the least worst party.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,337

    If the Lords scupper Benn via these mass amendments then its Boris back in the driving seat as prorogation would mean no extension will be requested at the EU summit, and any offer of one refused and Corbyns refusal of a GE will look rather silly.
    Big if though

    It is amazing people think Hammond and Clarke have sacrificed their careers for this bill but will let the PM destroy it in the Lords. They would simply change the PM if forced to by further shenanigans. It is obvious. The bill will pass and become law. The interesting question is who will be PM when it happens.
    If the Lords talk it out to Saturday as mooted prorogation kicks in Monday and Boris is untouchable till mid October and is not bound by benn. Its whether the Lords can achieve this that's the question. Theres a plan, will it work?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,014
    Byronic said:

    Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Cowardly Corbyn Frit! :D
    Hmmmm. Corbyn shows all the fear of an executioner choosing when to drop the axe on Boris’ neck. Patience Boris, release will come soon enough!
    But how long will Corbyn’s unCorbyn-like restraint last? A day? Three days? Til Monday?
    Either until Royal Assent for the anti-no deal bill is granted, or until just after the EU council in October when Parliament approves the change to Exit Day in the EU Withdrawal Act.

    I think he would prefer that the election is held after October 31st, while we are still in the EU, so that Boris can be shown not to have been able to deliver on his promises - all subsequent promises made in the election campaign can then be compared to his track record of promising things he is unable to deliver. "You can't trust a word Boris says..." they will say.
This discussion has been closed.