It looks worse the more I see of it. Last night I foolishly accepted the spin from some on here who said he was merely pressing his ear against an audio speaker, which is palpable nonsense. The man clearly intended to demonstrate beyond all doubt that a chap of his breeding can do what the hell he likes and the riff-raff would do well to take note.
I think the final which was the final straw for me last night was JRM. His high and snobby attitude and speech might be endearing in another place, but here, where actual jobs and economies matter it was misplaced and out of order.
I'm actually wondering if a period of Corbyn government, as disasterous as it would be in some areas wouldn't now be whats at least required, if certainly not desired.
This is silly. Boris knows the British people don't want an election. And calling one would look very bad, for him. However, if he is FORCED into one, well then what can he do about that?
That's what Boris wants - to be forced into a GE - and it looks like he will get it.
yep, agree with that. If Boris calls an unnecessary election when he could deliver Brexit then the BXP will savage his vote. Certainly looks a lot better to be forced into an election because the 'anti-democrats' in parliament have taken the rug from under him.
yes the magic date for Lab would be October 31st. Before then Boris walks it. After that then not to say he wouldn't win but he would have a hell of a monkey on his back, having broken his do or die promise. It would be used relentlessly, by Jezza and Nige for the whole campaign.
But what if it was because parliament, including Corbyn, had stopped him? It might work in his favour.
This is silly. Boris knows the British people don't want an election. And calling one would look very bad, for him. However, if he is FORCED into one, well then what can he do about that?
That's what Boris wants - to be forced into a GE - and it looks like he will get it.
Boris is asking for a GE tonight at 7pm. He clearly isn't being forced into a general election if he is requesting one.
yes the magic date for Lab would be October 31st. Before then Boris walks it. After that then not to say he wouldn't win but he would have a hell of a monkey on his back, having broken his do or die promise. It would be used relentlessly, by Jezza and Nige for the whole campaign.
lol, why doesnt Boles just defect to Labour if he wants Jezza to win ?
This is silly. Boris knows the British people don't want an election. And calling one would look very bad, for him. However, if he is FORCED into one, well then what can he do about that?
That's what Boris wants - to be forced into a GE - and it looks like he will get it.
As I said last night Parliament has written the Parliament Vs the People script for him.
What I didn't forsee was Cowardly Corbyn heading for the hills rather than dare face the electorate... I thought he'd be úp for it like in 2017.
But Labour blocking the election they have been demanding every day for three years is even better for Boris in the long run.
British Politics Is In Chaos. The System Is Working. The country’s unwritten constitution is being stretched to its limit, but is still in place—for now.
Agree though that it is bad news for the SNP that despite Brexit 51% of Scottish voters would still vote to stay in the UK
For a separatist party 49% is fine, it is well within the margin of error and they only need to win one referendum whereas unionists need to win every referendum.
Except that they only get one referendum a generation, and if they lose two the cause dies out, possibly forever. Cf Quebec.
I don’t think there will be a vote in Scotland for 10 years or more. Brexit is too horrific an example of what happens if you try to enact dramatic constitutional change on a divided country, on the back of a plebiscite. Memories of it will need to fade before the Nats can or will try again
I am exhausted trying to keep up with UK politics so dont particularly follow Scottish specific politics but from a mathematical angle 49% is not a problem for a separatist party, particularly when the direction of travel is in their favour.
As alluded to previously Quebec is one of the several straws to which Unionists cling. Obviously the '2nd ref killed the Nats stone dead' schtick is comforting to the fearful, but I can't really see the comparison with regard to history, culture, politics or constitution to name but four.
The idea that Scotland is going to recoil from indy because English politicians (with even their Scottish satraps looking on aghast) have made an almighty fuckup of Brexit is an interesting one. If nothing else it provides a useful template for what not to do.
The Quebec example is more than a straw. Talk of a second IndyRef already elicits a huge groan among many. A third would be unconscionable. It will be do or die for the SNP.
I guess the groaners would be the 44% of those who don't think there should be a referendum in the next 5 years as opposed to the 45% that do? It's odd that when Unionists are asked to facilitate this referendum that'll kill off indy for evvah, it's always no, no, no.
Of course you know when Unionists are bleating about the wording of the question for this second referendum that's definitely, definitely not going to happen that the game's a bogey (or an IDS as it shall henceforth be known).
I wonder how widespread this view of Cummings is among Tory MPs. I always regarded Gale as a no fuss plodder, so for me this looks quite significant. But others will know a whole lot better. https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1169177243307757568
Looking at Twitter, Brexit Party supporters are going to be very disappointed when Boris doesn’t pick up the phone to Farage to organise an electoral pact.
This is silly. Boris knows the British people don't want an election. And calling one would look very bad, for him. However, if he is FORCED into one, well then what can he do about that?
That's what Boris wants - to be forced into a GE - and it looks like he will get it.
Boris is asking for a GE tonight at 7pm. He won't get it.
and that's perfect for him. He will eventually force through a GE next month but if Labour are seen to block it after all the months of calling for one it'll do them severe damage. Corbyn is somewhat boxed in here.
It looks worse the more I see of it. Last night I foolishly accepted the spin from some on here who said he was merely pressing his ear against an audio speaker, which is palpable nonsense. The man clearly intended to demonstrate beyond all doubt that a chap of his breeding can do what the hell he likes and the riff-raff would do well to take note.
I think the final which was the final straw for me last night was JRM. His high and snobby attitude and speech might be endearing in another place, but here, where actual jobs and economies matter it was misplaced and out of order.
I'm actually wondering if a period of Corbyn government, as disasterous as it would be in some areas wouldn't now be whats at least required, if certainly not desired.
I think the Tories will get a short term bounce as almost all Leavers are furious "the will of the people" has been denied. I reckon 40%/ 23% / 17%/ 14%/6% gives Johnson a 17% lead at start of campaign.
I think in a 6 week campaign Con will stay in high 30s as they squeeze BXP 14% but lose moderates to all other parties. I think as campaign becomes about other issues and Lab Manifesto strikes a chord gap narrows as dramatically as in 2017 i reckon Lab 35% by end of campaign.
End result NOC Boris goes Corbyn goes if he isnt PM soft BREXIT GE in 2020
He’ll accept. If he wins a majority he repeals. If he loses then it makes no difference.
Allows him to make the call to BXP voters very clear.
Like I said earlier, why not amend today's Bill with a provision for a GE on 14th or 15th October? That answers Labour's alleged concerns, both about the date and the risk that Queen's Consent or Royal Assent is somehow withheld.
Why should Boris get to choose an election date that's most advantageous to him?
If Labour were to propose an election date of, say, 5 December, would the Tories support that? Or would they be "frit"?
I asked the question last night, how many times has Jezza called for a General Election since the last one?
Many times. And he called for one again last night. Why does that mean he should just let Boris select the date?
yes the magic date for Lab would be October 31st. Before then Boris walks it. After that then not to say he wouldn't win but he would have a hell of a monkey on his back, having broken his do or die promise. It would be used relentlessly, by Jezza and Nige for the whole campaign.
But what if it was because parliament, including Corbyn, had stopped him? It might work in his favour.
That's possible, although the Tories also claimed after the first extension that they'd been forced into it by Parliament, but it didn't stop their poll rating collapsing.
The reasons from Labour's perspective to demand a long campaign aren't just because it would force Boris to get an extension, though. It also gives Jezza more time to campaign and more rallies, which (rightly or wrongly) he sees as the single factor that helped most in the 2017 election.
If Mr Johnson wins 330 seats like Mrs May did, he will need to bribe the DUP once again. They will exact a high price for helping to revoke the Benn Law and allowing a no-deal Brexit in NI.
The DUP will never allow a no deal Brexit - they know as well as anyone it's a short cut to a united Ireland. They will always find reasons for blocking it. The DUP is a sectarian-based party dedicated to preserving the union and that aim will always trump Brexit for them.
That's what I would expect, but they did vote with the government yesterday.
Of course, it was obvious that the government would lose so the DUP could keep their hands clean knowing that the Tory rebels were doing the dirty work.
Do Brexiteers really think Lib Dem or Labour voters will say: “I was going to vote for LibDem/Labour but now because I think they’re scared of an election I’m going to vote for Boris”??
Looking at Twitter, Brexit Party supporters are going to be very disappointed when Boris doesn’t pick up the phone to Farage to organise an electoral pact.
He doesn't need a pact.
He's purged the last of the EU-Phile grandees. There's nothing to stop him going all out for no deal and framing it that Parliament has forced him into it by refusing to let him keep no deal on the table to get a deal.
Farage has already said if Boris purges the EU-Philes and goes for no deal he'll stand down the Brexit Party and endorse Boris.
Anyone else wondering why there were six signatories to Hammond's 'No to No Deal' letter who didn't rebel yesterday?
IIUIC they were:
* Alberto Costa * Simon Hoare * David Lidington * Paul Masterton * Caroline Spelman * Tom Tugendhat
What a bunch of hypocrites!
Enough rebelled yesterday to win. The rest can rebel on another day.
Masterton is likely to lose his seat in a GE. Rest are in safe seats.
That's what's slightly odd, if Masterton had shown a bit of spine it might have given him a ghost of a chance of keeping his seat (admittedly extremely ghostly).
This is silly. Boris knows the British people don't want an election. And calling one would look very bad, for him. However, if he is FORCED into one, well then what can he do about that?
That's what Boris wants - to be forced into a GE - and it looks like he will get it.
Boris is asking for a GE tonight at 7pm. He won't get it.
and that's perfect for him. He will eventually force through a GE next month but if Labour are seen to block it after all the months of calling for one it'll do them severe damage. Corbyn is somewhat boxed in here.
It sounds a bit limp during an election campaign, an election which Corbyn voted for, to say, "but Corbyn voted against an election".
Looking at Twitter, Brexit Party supporters are going to be very disappointed when Boris doesn’t pick up the phone to Farage to organise an electoral pact.
He doesn't need a pact.
He's purged the last of the EU-Phile grandees. There's nothing to stop him going all out for no deal and framing it that Parliament has forced him into it by refusing to let him keep no deal on the table to get a deal.
Farage has already said if Boris purges the EU-Philes and goes for no deal he'll stand down the Brexit Party and endorse Boris.
This is silly. Boris knows the British people don't want an election. And calling one would look very bad, for him. However, if he is FORCED into one, well then what can he do about that?
That's what Boris wants - to be forced into a GE - and it looks like he will get it.
As I said last night Parliament has written the Parliament Vs the People script for him.
What I didn't forsee was Cowardly Corbyn heading for the hills rather than dare face the electorate... I thought he'd be úp for it like in 2017.
But Labour blocking the election they have been demanding every day for three years is even better for Boris in the long run.
This is silly. Boris knows the British people don't want an election. And calling one would look very bad, for him. However, if he is FORCED into one, well then what can he do about that?
That's what Boris wants - to be forced into a GE - and it looks like he will get it.
As I said last night Parliament has written the Parliament Vs the People script for him.
What I didn't forsee was Cowardly Corbyn heading for the hills rather than dare face the electorate... I thought he'd be úp for it like in 2017.
But Labour blocking the election they have been demanding every day for three years is even better for Boris in the long run.
He’ll accept. If he wins a majority he repeals. If he loses then it makes no difference.
Allows him to make the call to BXP voters very clear.
Like I said earlier, why not amend today's Bill with a provision for a GE on 14th or 15th October? That answers Labour's alleged concerns, both about the date and the risk that Queen's Consent or Royal Assent is somehow withheld.
Why should Boris get to choose an election date that's most advantageous to him?
If Labour were to propose an election date of, say, 5 December, would the Tories support that? Or would they be "frit"?
I asked the question last night, how many times has Jezza called for a General Election since the last one?
Many times. And he called for one again last night. Why does that mean he should just let Boris select the date?
But Mr Corbyn today reiterated his long-standing calls for an election - when asked if he would back one "under any circumstance, at any time".
I mean, are we really going to play that game after all the statements Boris has gone back on already?
Corbyn can easily reverse-ferret if he wants to. He can dress up the reason for demanding a long election campaign with ostensibly principled reasons. Like "this is the most important election in a generation, the public need a long campaign to get all the information". Or "there'll be too much uncertainty for business to hold an election just a couple of weeks before a potential No Deal Brexit, we need to get the extension first so that businesses have more time to prepare".
Yeah, we are going to play that game. Because if Corbyn is just as dishonest as Johnson, and just as ready to say things he doesn't mean for the sake for political advancement, then what on earth is the point in voting for him?
First post from a 10 year lurker on this site (what happened to SeanT by the way?). Anyway, although yesterday was very messy, I think broadly the Cummings strategy is still mostly on track. i.e. get to an election framed as 'you the people' vs blockers/Socialist headbangers (his 'words' not mine)
Do Brexiteers really think Lib Dem or Labour voters will say: “I was going to vote for LibDem/Labour but now because I think they’re scared of an election I’m going to vote for Boris”??
Give your heads a shake.
Not committed Lab and Lib-Dem but most voters are floaters... And they'll take a dim view.
This is silly. Boris knows the British people don't want an election. And calling one would look very bad, for him. However, if he is FORCED into one, well then what can he do about that?
That's what Boris wants - to be forced into a GE - and it looks like he will get it.
As I said last night Parliament has written the Parliament Vs the People script for him.
A slogan like "Parliament vs the People" can easily backfire if a good counter slogan is found. Just think of how effective the "Weak and Wobbly" slogan was.
We now have a good idea about what No Deal is - the govt has prepared the Yellowhammer dossier for us
We now know what a Deal looks like thanks to Mrs May
Surely the way forward now is Revoke A50 and set up a Royal Commission to examine the impacts from the now known positions and then make a recommendation to the country followed by a binary referendum with a 66.7% threshold?
It means that voters would known precisely what the impact will be and no unicorns will be allowed
Government by technocrat
Just what the EU likes
No need to pay attention to pesky voters with their own opinions
Do Brexiteers really think Lib Dem or Labour voters will say: “I was going to vote for LibDem/Labour but now because I think they’re scared of an election I’m going to vote for Boris”??
Give your heads a shake.
Indeed. It's worth remembering the last election took place on 9th June 2017, having been called on 18th April. The only reason to hold one before 31st October is because it suits Johnson. Now he has lost control of the Commons, why shouldn't MPs pick a date that best suits them? The longer the campaign, the more his lies and the true implicaitons of No Deak can be exposed.
That said, I can still see Corbyn - who is not smart - listening to the Morning Star Brexiteers and giving Johnson his mid-October poll.
I wonder if Her Majesty is having second thoughts about having appointed Johnson as PM this morning?
Her one role in the process is to appoint on the basis of who commands a majority of the house - and it's clear that Johnson comes nowhere near, whatever the politicking around moving formal No Confidence motions. I just wonder if she'd insisted on a formal confidence motion first, some of last night's rebels might have used that leverage to get concessions out of him to avoid this, e.g. formally ruling out prorogation.
Do Brexiteers really think Lib Dem or Labour voters will say: “I was going to vote for LibDem/Labour but now because I think they’re scared of an election I’m going to vote for Boris”??
Give your heads a shake.
Do remainers really think voters will be impressed by Corbyn dodging an election after banging on about having one every day? If he's trying to look more honest than Boris it isn't working.
Looking at Twitter, Brexit Party supporters are going to be very disappointed when Boris doesn’t pick up the phone to Farage to organise an electoral pact.
He doesn't need a pact.
He's purged the last of the EU-Phile grandees. There's nothing to stop him going all out for no deal and framing it that Parliament has forced him into it by refusing to let him keep no deal on the table to get a deal.
Farage has already said if Boris purges the EU-Philes and goes for no deal he'll stand down the Brexit Party and endorse Boris.
And if Boris fights an election on "vote for me and get no deal" he will be slaughtered in the South. This latest Scotland poll is only the start of it.
This is silly. Boris knows the British people don't want an election. And calling one would look very bad, for him. However, if he is FORCED into one, well then what can he do about that?
That's what Boris wants - to be forced into a GE - and it looks like he will get it.
As I said last night Parliament has written the Parliament Vs the People script for him.
What I didn't forsee was Cowardly Corbyn heading for the hills rather than dare face the electorate... I thought he'd be úp for it like in 2017.
But Labour blocking the election they have been demanding every day for three years is even better for Boris in the long run.
The Labour line can’t hold for long ..
It doesn't need to. On Tuesday of next week once Parliament has been prorogued Corbyn can return to asking for an election once No Deal on October 31st has been removed.
And Corbyn can then spend all month asking for an election as Boris can't enable one until he loses the new Parliament's Queen's speech vote on October 21st / 22nd.
My rough guess on those numbers, Labour loses all seats bar Edinburgh South Lib Dems pick up Fife NE (obviously) Cons lose their 3 Lib Dem mass switch seats from 2017 plus at least 5 more?
Swing is LD to SNP on those numbers, Fife stays SNP on uns Cons hold Berwickshire, Dunfriesshire and Aberdeenshire West Lab back to unicycle territory
UNS is going to be super rubbish in Scotland. You have the twin Axes of Brexit and Sindy.
In Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine the Con win was based on the LibDem vote going from 11,812 in 2015 to 4,461 in 2017 and the Lab Vote going from 2,487 to 5,706.
The SNP-to-Lab switchers are going to switch back as are Lib Dem to Con Switchers. It will be far closer than UNS suggests.
In Fife NE there are over fourteen thousand Con and Lab voters for the Lib Dems to squeeze, ten thousand of them Con voters.
Fife NE is a 100% Lib Dem gain.
Good post.
To be fair to Electoral Calculus they do have Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine within 2% between Cons and SNP. Would deffo be backing SNP at better than evens there.
Do Brexiteers really think Lib Dem or Labour voters will say: “I was going to vote for LibDem/Labour but now because I think they’re scared of an election I’m going to vote for Boris”??
Give your heads a shake.
Not committed Lab and Lib-Dem but most voters are floaters... And they'll take a dim view.
Wait for Saturday night's polls.
Floating voters this week will still be floating voters at the start of the election campaign, when the "scared of an election" slogan will be laughable.
I wonder if Her Majesty is having second thoughts about having appointed Johnson as PM this morning?
Her one role in the process is to appoint on the basis of who commands a majority of the house - and it's clear that Johnson comes nowhere near, whatever the politicking around moving formal No Confidence motions. I just wonder if she'd insisted on a formal confidence motion first, some of last night's rebels might have used that leverage to get concessions out of him to avoid this, e.g. formally ruling out prorogation.
Wouldn't that have led to accusations that the Queen was trying to help Boris? I mean, he clearly wants an election, so he'd have no problem in not becoming PM before an election.
They are faced with an unenviable choice between no deal and (possibly) Corbyn.
In those circumstances, the only sane vote might be Lib Dem.
This depends on if the election is run on a "Back Boris for no-deal" policy or not. If it is which seems likely, then Remain voting Conservative voters should not have much of a problem with voting LD.
A much bigger problem is for the Brexit-but-not-no-deal-brexit conservatives. They will really have a hard time if they want their opinion heard.
This is silly. Boris knows the British people don't want an election. And calling one would look very bad, for him. However, if he is FORCED into one, well then what can he do about that?
That's what Boris wants - to be forced into a GE - and it looks like he will get it.
As I said last night Parliament has written the Parliament Vs the People script for him.
What I didn't forsee was Cowardly Corbyn heading for the hills rather than dare face the electorate... I thought he'd be úp for it like in 2017.
But Labour blocking the election they have been demanding every day for three years is even better for Boris in the long run.
The Labour line can’t hold for long ..
It doesn't need to. On Tuesday of next week once Parliament has been prorogued Corbyn can return to asking for an election once No Deal on October 31st has been removed.
And Corbyn can then spend all month asking for an election as Boris can't enable one until he loses the new Parliament's Queen's speech vote on October 21st / 22nd.
That set of events is very unlikely but wishful thinking.
We now have a good idea about what No Deal is - the govt has prepared the Yellowhammer dossier for us
We now know what a Deal looks like thanks to Mrs May
Surely the way forward now is Revoke A50 and set up a Royal Commission to examine the impacts from the now known positions and then make a recommendation to the country followed by a binary referendum with a 66.7% threshold?
It means that voters would known precisely what the impact will be and no unicorns will be allowed
Government by technocrat
Just what the EU likes
No need to pay attention to pesky voters with their own opinions
Did your (presumably) expensive education teach you to read Charles? Putting it back to the voters to get their instruction on precise offerings rather than vague, undefined waffle is exactly what I am advocating.
We now have a good idea about what No Deal is - the govt has prepared the Yellowhammer dossier for us
We now know what a Deal looks like thanks to Mrs May
Surely the way forward now is Revoke A50 and set up a Royal Commission to examine the impacts from the now known positions and then make a recommendation to the country followed by a binary referendum with a 66.7% threshold?
It means that voters would known precisely what the impact will be and no unicorns will be allowed
Government by technocrat
Just what the EU likes
No need to pay attention to pesky voters with their own opinions
Also arbitrary limits set to ensure the governing side get what they want from the result are indefensible.
yes the magic date for Lab would be October 31st. Before then Boris walks it. After that then not to say he wouldn't win but he would have a hell of a monkey on his back, having broken his do or die promise. It would be used relentlessly, by Jezza and Nige for the whole campaign.
But what if it was because parliament, including Corbyn, had stopped him? It might work in his favour.
Do or Die is pretty emphatic. Not much wiggle room. No room for dogs eating his order paper.
It looks worse the more I see of it. Last night I foolishly accepted the spin from some on here who said he was merely pressing his ear against an audio speaker, which is palpable nonsense. The man clearly intended to demonstrate beyond all doubt that a chap of his breeding can do what the hell he likes and the riff-raff would do well to take note.
I think the final which was the final straw for me last night was JRM. His high and snobby attitude and speech might be endearing in another place, but here, where actual jobs and economies matter it was misplaced and out of order.
I'm actually wondering if a period of Corbyn government, as disasterous as it would be in some areas wouldn't now be whats at least required, if certainly not desired.
This is silly. Boris knows the British people don't want an election. And calling one would look very bad, for him. However, if he is FORCED into one, well then what can he do about that?
That's what Boris wants - to be forced into a GE - and it looks like he will get it.
As I said last night Parliament has written the Parliament Vs the People script for him.
What I didn't forsee was Cowardly Corbyn heading for the hills rather than dare face the electorate... I thought he'd be úp for it like in 2017.
But Labour blocking the election they have been demanding every day for three years is even better for Boris in the long run.
The Labour line can’t hold for long ..
It doesn't need to. On Tuesday of next week once Parliament has been prorogued Corbyn can return to asking for an election once No Deal on October 31st has been removed.
And Corbyn can then spend all month asking for an election as Boris can't enable one until he loses the new Parliament's Queen's speech vote on October 21st / 22nd.
I thought the Prorouge date was between Monday and Thursday, the choice being Mr Johnson's
Unlike 2017 this election will most definitely be a Brexit election.
It won't.
It's a General Election and many many topics of interest and concern will come to the fore. Most people are in fact sick of Brexit and fall into two camps. Get the blinking thing done or kick it into touch. Whatever, don't discuss it any more.
NHS, schools, transport, climate, poverty, crime ... these are some of the issues of far more interest and concern to the vast majority of people in this country.
Brexit is boring. Okay, it isn't to me because I'm a political nerd. But I promise you that Brexit is boring for most people. They never were much interested in Europe, and they won't be in the future. This was and always has been an obsession of people like HYUFD. Not the country.
Boris will look in the camera and say "Give me your vote, give me a working majority - and I will deliver Brexit before you have your Christmas pud. You can have given up worrying about whether we will ever implement Brexit by the time you sing Auld Lang Syne. Then Westminster can get back to addrssing all the other important stuff you need us to do as your government."
And the nation will say "Gawd bless yer guv...."
Number theorists will recognise that in this event Boris will have fulfilled his original promise, because OCT31=DEC25.
yes the magic date for Lab would be October 31st. Before then Boris walks it. After that then not to say he wouldn't win but he would have a hell of a monkey on his back, having broken his do or die promise. It would be used relentlessly, by Jezza and Nige for the whole campaign.
lol, why doesnt Boles just defect to Labour if he wants Jezza to win ?
He feels like all of us, Alan - he wants them all to lose.
Anyone else wondering why there were six signatories to Hammond's 'No to No Deal' letter who didn't rebel yesterday?
IIUIC they were:
* Alberto Costa * Simon Hoare * David Lidington * Paul Masterton * Caroline Spelman * Tom Tugendhat
What a bunch of hypocrites!
Enough rebelled yesterday to win. The rest can rebel on another day.
Masterton is likely to lose his seat in a GE. Rest are in safe seats.
That's what's slightly odd, if Masterton had shown a bit of spine it might have given him a ghost of a chance of keeping his seat (admittedly extremely ghostly).
In fairness to him, he did as always take the time to set out his reasons in detail.
Anyone else wondering why there were six signatories to Hammond's 'No to No Deal' letter who didn't rebel yesterday?
IIUIC they were:
* Alberto Costa * Simon Hoare * David Lidington * Paul Masterton * Caroline Spelman * Tom Tugendhat
What a bunch of hypocrites!
Enough rebelled yesterday to win. The rest can rebel on another day.
Masterton is likely to lose his seat in a GE. Rest are in safe seats.
That's what's slightly odd, if Masterton had shown a bit of spine it might have given him a ghost of a chance of keeping his seat (admittedly extremely ghostly).
In fairness to him, he did as always take the time to set out his reasons in detail.
Looking at this (too) simplistic, it seems from the outside that the Union / Independence dividing line is a more powerful driving factor than whether you are pro or anti-Brexit. That makes me think SCons might do better than those numbers suggest as pro-Union voters hold their noses to keep the SNP out and repeat 2017's tactical voting. It's easy to forget but TM's 2017 campaign wasn't exactly pushing an anti-Brexit line and the SCons benefiting from tactical voting then.
I wonder if Her Majesty is having second thoughts about having appointed Johnson as PM this morning?
Her one role in the process is to appoint on the basis of who commands a majority of the house - and it's clear that Johnson comes nowhere near, whatever the politicking around moving formal No Confidence motions. I just wonder if she'd insisted on a formal confidence motion first, some of last night's rebels might have used that leverage to get concessions out of him to avoid this, e.g. formally ruling out prorogation.
The Queen has a protocoll that she follows to avoid the contitutional crisis that happened in Australia in the seventies.
She has followed this protocoll. Ms May recommended that Mr Johnson become the next prime minister. As long as this suggestion was not absurd (which it was not) then the Queen just does her duty.
Rees-Mogg's 'arrogant' speech cost government four extra votes, says Tory rebel
Turning back to Jacob Rees-Mogg, it has emerged that he single-handedly managed to push the size of the rebellion last night over the 20 mark. In an interview with the Today programme’s Ross Hawkins, Guto Bebb, one of the most prominent rebels, said that Rees-Mogg’s speech helped to persuade four MPs to join him in voting against the government. Bebb said: There were at least four individuals who were still doubtful who changed their position to being supportive and voting with us on the back of Jacob’s performance. He was deemed to be arrogant, out of touch and I think the way in which he treated some of the interventions was a red rag to bull in many cases. Mogg is getting most publicity this morning for his unusual posture on the Treasury bench. (See 6.37am.) Last night the government was, quite literally, flat on its back. But the picture has distracted attention from his speech which, even by Rees-Mogg’s standards, was unusually pompous, as well as peevish and at times offensive
Looking at Twitter, Brexit Party supporters are going to be very disappointed when Boris doesn’t pick up the phone to Farage to organise an electoral pact.
What makes you believe it hasn’t been done already?
This is silly. Boris knows the British people don't want an election. And calling one would look very bad, for him. However, if he is FORCED into one, well then what can he do about that?
That's what Boris wants - to be forced into a GE - and it looks like he will get it.
As I said last night Parliament has written the Parliament Vs the People script for him.
What I didn't forsee was Cowardly Corbyn heading for the hills rather than dare face the electorate... I thought he'd be úp for it like in 2017.
But Labour blocking the election they have been demanding every day for three years is even better for Boris in the long run.
The Labour line can’t hold for long ..
It doesn't need to. On Tuesday of next week once Parliament has been prorogued Corbyn can return to asking for an election once No Deal on October 31st has been removed.
And Corbyn can then spend all month asking for an election as Boris can't enable one until he loses the new Parliament's Queen's speech vote on October 21st / 22nd.
I thought the Prorouge date was between Monday and Thursday, the choice being Mr Johnson's
So it's Thursday next week. It really doesn't matter once Parliament is prorogued until October Corbyn can start talking about an election again
By October most people will have forgotten all about this week and if they haven't the thing they will remember is Parliament refused an election as they didn't trust Boris.
And this election may well boil down to do you trust Boris - Yes or No?
It looks worse the more I see of it. Last night I foolishly accepted the spin from some on here who said he was merely pressing his ear against an audio speaker, which is palpable nonsense. The man clearly intended to demonstrate beyond all doubt that a chap of his breeding can do what the hell he likes and the riff-raff would do well to take note.
I think the final which was the final straw for me last night was JRM. His high and snobby attitude and speech might be endearing in another place, but here, where actual jobs and economies matter it was misplaced and out of order.
I'm actually wondering if a period of Corbyn government, as disasterous as it would be in some areas wouldn't now be whats at least required, if certainly not desired.
First post from a 10 year lurker on this site (what happened to SeanT by the way?). Anyway, although yesterday was very messy, I think broadly the Cummings strategy is still mostly on track. i.e. get to an election framed as 'you the people' vs blockers/Socialist headbangers (his 'words' not mine)
Welcome to the site, I think you are right. What will be interesting is whether the strategy will then be to leave asap after an election or to make use of whatever extension is requested.
Looking at Twitter, Brexit Party supporters are going to be very disappointed when Boris doesn’t pick up the phone to Farage to organise an electoral pact.
What makes you believe it hasn’t been done already?
You really think the Tories will stand aside in vast swathes of Northern seats?
Anyone else wondering why there were six signatories to Hammond's 'No to No Deal' letter who didn't rebel yesterday?
IIUIC they were:
* Alberto Costa * Simon Hoare * David Lidington * Paul Masterton * Caroline Spelman * Tom Tugendhat
What a bunch of hypocrites!
Enough rebelled yesterday to win. The rest can rebel on another day.
Masterton is likely to lose his seat in a GE. Rest are in safe seats.
That's what's slightly odd, if Masterton had shown a bit of spine it might have given him a ghost of a chance of keeping his seat (admittedly extremely ghostly).
In fairness to him, he did as always take the time to set out his reasons in detail.
yes the magic date for Lab would be October 31st. Before then Boris walks it. After that then not to say he wouldn't win but he would have a hell of a monkey on his back, having broken his do or die promise. It would be used relentlessly, by Jezza and Nige for the whole campaign.
lol, why doesnt Boles just defect to Labour if he wants Jezza to win ?
He feels like all of us, Alan - he wants them all to lose.
Im afraid Mr T thats not going to happen, there will always be 650 on the numpties playing silly games.
Fortunately for Mps their standing is so low in the eyes of the public there isnt much further for them to drop. Currently they sit between journalists and advertising execs,
The problem remains they cant see it for want of playing dopey bugger games.
I'm not sure Rees Mogg slouching in the commons will play too well in the Brexit heartlands the Tories need to win off Labour. Anti-tory mindset can run very very deep.
Parties have positions and not all their MPs believe in them, that's normal. The Tories still have *lots* of MPs who don't believe in No Deal but didn't vote with the opposition on that particular motion.
Sure, that's normal most of the time. But "being prepared to tolerate No Deal, if no deal can be found" is plainly going to be the party's fundamental policy at the imminent GE and if MPs cannot - in good conscience - support that, then they should probably not be candidates for the party.
But TP, the Governemt is not trying to find a Deal. We know that. The cat is out of the bag.
At the EU is saying no to any proposal
There’s no point in throwing resources at it until they are willing to negotiate
Well that's the Lords finally going to be reformed come the next non-Tory government
Everyone threatens electoral reform until they get in to power. Then they find they like the system that got them there.
That's why I suspect we will get Lords reform - it's less painful than changing our FPTP system..
This talk of Lords Filibuster is surely overdone. If they thwart the Government in this way, the institution is finished. Even fairly wishy washy opponents like me would want it abolished.
They must know that.
Of course, they will not be thwarting "the Government". They will be thwarting a group of procedural manipulators trying to undermine a majority decision in a referendum recognised as binding by the main political parties in Parliament.
I'd say all bets are off.
I’d go further than that
The Tories and the Lords are lining up on their long term position of standing up for ordinary people against the London-based sectarian interests.
(It’s the same split as the English Civil War, FWIW, with London/Parliament pursuing its own interests regardless of what everyone else wanted or thought)
You get the feeling that the Tory party will wake up at some point realising what the hell it has done to itself. The only question is will it be too late to do anything about it.
Oddly, Conservative majority has drifted out quite sharply this morning. It was last matched at 2.98.
Private polls looking gloomy?
Punters having seen Johnson last night thinking he is going to trash it come the election and the realization if the opposition plays it right the election is after 31/10
Surely Labour should only accept a general election once no deal cannot happen on 31 st October .
That would mean Bozo has broken his promise and keeps the Brexit Party taking votes from the Tories .
An election before then could still deliver a no deal if the Tories get a majority .
The one thing that has changed though is the removal of the whip from the rebels . If you’ve got nothing left to lose then more of those rebels might back a VONC .
I wonder how widespread this view of Cummings is among Tory MPs. I always regarded Gale as a no fuss plodder, so for me this looks quite significant. But others will know a whole lot better. https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1169177243307757568
"The 1922 Committee is going to have to do something about it"
Wow. When is their next meeting? I wonder if Cummings Wargamed his expulsion?
It looks worse the more I see of it. Last night I foolishly accepted the spin from some on here who said he was merely pressing his ear against an audio speaker, which is palpable nonsense. The man clearly intended to demonstrate beyond all doubt that a chap of his breeding can do what the hell he likes and the riff-raff would do well to take note.
I think the final which was the final straw for me last night was JRM. His high and snobby attitude and speech might be endearing in another place, but here, where actual jobs and economies matter it was misplaced and out of order.
I'm actually wondering if a period of Corbyn government, as disasterous as it would be in some areas wouldn't now be whats at least required, if certainly not desired.
Surely Labour should only accept a general election once no deal cannot happen on 31 st October .
That would mean Bozo has broken his promise and keeps the Brexit Party taking votes from the Tories .
An election before then could still deliver a no deal if the Tories get a majority .
The one thing that has changed though is the removal of the whip from the rebels . If you’ve got nothing left to lose then more of those rebels might back a VONC .
I don't think it's possible to block no deal on October 31st, it is however possible to call a general election before then
IF I was Cummings and IF I had war-gamed this then the masterstroke would be a deal with Farage, bringing him into the foldgiving him a safe seat and a role in government, and going full on no-deal.
From the Graun, more important than the lounging, JRM cost the gov 4 votes:
Rees-Mogg's 'arrogant' speech cost government four extra votes, says Tory rebel. [...] it has emerged that he single-handedly managed to push the size of the rebellion last night over the 20 mark. In an interview with the Today programme’s Ross Hawkins, Guto Bebb, one of the most prominent rebels, said that Rees-Mogg’s speech helped to persuade four MPs to join him in voting against the government. Bebb said:
"There were at least four individuals who were still doubtful who changed their position to being supportive and voting with us on the back of Jacob’s performance. He was deemed to be arrogant, out of touch and I think the way in which he treated some of the interventions was a red rag to bull in many cases."
Mogg is getting most publicity this morning for his unusual posture on the Treasury bench.
Looking at this (too) simplistic, it seems from the outside that the Union / Independence dividing line is a more powerful driving factor than whether you are pro or anti-Brexit. That makes me think SCons might do better than those numbers suggest as pro-Union voters hold their noses to keep the SNP out and repeat 2017's tactical voting. It's easy to forget but TM's 2017 campaign wasn't exactly pushing an anti-Brexit line and the SCons benefiting from tactical voting then.
I think there's something in this. Who do the 50-55% of Pro Union voters vote for? Corbyn's made it fairly clear he'd give up the union in exchange for power, which will turn off a good chunk of them once they think about it during an election. What's the Venn diagram overlap between Scottish Leaver (edit: 38%!!) and Unionist (50-55%)? I can personally see the Tories defying the odds in Scotland.
This is silly. Boris knows the British people don't want an election. And calling one would look very bad, for him. However, if he is FORCED into one, well then what can he do about that?
That's what Boris wants - to be forced into a GE - and it looks like he will get it.
As I said last night Parliament has written the Parliament Vs the People script for him.
What I didn't forsee was Cowardly Corbyn heading for the hills rather than dare face the electorate... I thought he'd be úp for it like in 2017.
But Labour blocking the election they have been demanding every day for three years is even better for Boris in the long run.
The Labour line can’t hold for long ..
It doesn't need to. On Tuesday of next week once Parliament has been prorogued Corbyn can return to asking for an election once No Deal on October 31st has been removed.
And Corbyn can then spend all month asking for an election as Boris can't enable one until he loses the new Parliament's Queen's speech vote on October 21st / 22nd.
I thought the Prorouge date was between Monday and Thursday, the choice being Mr Johnson's
So it's Thursday next week. It really doesn't matter once Parliament is prorogued until October Corbyn can start talking about an election again
By October most people will have forgotten all about this week and if they haven't the thing they will remember is Parliament refused an election as they didn't trust Boris.
And this election may well boil down to do you trust Boris - Yes or No?
Youre expecting Boris and Brexit to drop out of the news for a few weeks ?
I don't think that will work, its too clever by half.
The public aren't fools, if Parliament forces an extension with Boris voting against [and expelling any Tories who vote in favour] then it will be the opposition who broke Boris's pledge not Boris.
Boris will spend the next couple of months shouting from the rooftops this is why he needs a majority. And he'd be right.
The Conservative Conference would be an election rally.
I'd expect the Tories to be at least 40% by November if this happens.
Comments
The sole intent behind the bill is to prevent the executive arranging no deal by default on Oct 31st.
And the even funnier bit is that he won't get it.
What I didn't forsee was Cowardly Corbyn heading for the hills rather than dare face the electorate... I thought he'd be úp for it like in 2017.
But Labour blocking the election they have been demanding every day for three years is even better for Boris in the long run.
The country’s unwritten constitution is being stretched to its limit, but is still in place—for now.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/09/britain-politics-chaotic-constitution-working/597340/
Of course you know when Unionists are bleating about the wording of the question for this second referendum that's definitely, definitely not going to happen that the game's a bogey (or an IDS as it shall henceforth be known).
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1169177243307757568
I think in a 6 week campaign Con will stay in high 30s as they squeeze BXP 14% but lose moderates to all other parties. I think as campaign becomes about other issues and Lab Manifesto strikes a chord gap narrows as dramatically as in 2017 i reckon Lab 35% by end of campaign.
End result NOC Boris goes Corbyn goes if he isnt PM soft BREXIT GE in 2020
The reasons from Labour's perspective to demand a long campaign aren't just because it would force Boris to get an extension, though. It also gives Jezza more time to campaign and more rallies, which (rightly or wrongly) he sees as the single factor that helped most in the 2017 election.
Give your heads a shake.
He's purged the last of the EU-Phile grandees. There's nothing to stop him going all out for no deal and framing it that Parliament has forced him into it by refusing to let him keep no deal on the table to get a deal.
Farage has already said if Boris purges the EU-Philes and goes for no deal he'll stand down the Brexit Party and endorse Boris.
Wait for Saturday night's polls.
Just what the EU likes
No need to pay attention to pesky voters with their own opinions
That said, I can still see Corbyn - who is not smart - listening to the Morning Star Brexiteers and giving Johnson his mid-October poll.
Her one role in the process is to appoint on the basis of who commands a majority of the house - and it's clear that Johnson comes nowhere near, whatever the politicking around moving formal No Confidence motions. I just wonder if she'd insisted on a formal confidence motion first, some of last night's rebels might have used that leverage to get concessions out of him to avoid this, e.g. formally ruling out prorogation.
It doesn't need to. On Tuesday of next week once Parliament has been prorogued Corbyn can return to asking for an election once No Deal on October 31st has been removed.
And Corbyn can then spend all month asking for an election as Boris can't enable one until he loses the new Parliament's Queen's speech vote on October 21st / 22nd.
In those circumstances, the only sane vote might be Lib Dem.
A crazy thought, but hardly any crazier than any other scenario.
If it is which seems likely, then Remain voting Conservative voters should not have much of a problem with voting LD.
A much bigger problem is for the Brexit-but-not-no-deal-brexit conservatives. They will really have a hard time if they want their opinion heard.
And Corbyn can then spend all month asking for an election as Boris can't enable one until he loses the new Parliament's Queen's speech vote on October 21st / 22nd.
That set of events is very unlikely but wishful thinking.
And Corbyn can then spend all month asking for an election as Boris can't enable one until he loses the new Parliament's Queen's speech vote on October 21st / 22nd.
I thought the Prorouge date was between Monday and Thursday, the choice being Mr Johnson's
https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/1168960672786472961
As have others in the cowardy-custard camp:
https://twitter.com/Simon4NDorset/status/1169139643738144768
She has followed this protocoll. Ms May recommended that Mr Johnson become the next prime minister. As long as this suggestion was not absurd (which it was not) then the Queen just does her duty.
Turning back to Jacob Rees-Mogg, it has emerged that he single-handedly managed to push the size of the rebellion last night over the 20 mark. In an interview with the Today programme’s Ross Hawkins, Guto Bebb, one of the most prominent rebels, said that Rees-Mogg’s speech helped to persuade four MPs to join him in voting against the government. Bebb said:
There were at least four individuals who were still doubtful who changed their position to being supportive and voting with us on the back of Jacob’s performance. He was deemed to be arrogant, out of touch and I think the way in which he treated some of the interventions was a red rag to bull in many cases.
Mogg is getting most publicity this morning for his unusual posture on the Treasury bench. (See 6.37am.) Last night the government was, quite literally, flat on its back. But the picture has distracted attention from his speech which, even by Rees-Mogg’s standards, was unusually pompous, as well as peevish and at times offensive
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/04/brexit-crisis-boris-johnson-mps-bill-blocking-no-deal-eu-no-deal-parliament-politics-live?__twitter_impression=true
The Tories have drifted slightly.
By October most people will have forgotten all about this week and if they haven't the thing they will remember is Parliament refused an election as they didn't trust Boris.
And this election may well boil down to do you trust Boris - Yes or No?
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1169186427906777088?s=21
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1169188008513458176
as predicted here last night...
Fortunately for Mps their standing is so low in the eyes of the public there isnt much further for them to drop. Currently they sit between journalists and advertising execs,
The problem remains they cant see it for want of playing dopey bugger games.
There’s no point in throwing resources at it until they are willing to negotiate
The Tories and the Lords are lining up on their long term position of standing up for ordinary people against the London-based sectarian interests.
(It’s the same split as the English Civil War, FWIW, with London/Parliament pursuing its own interests regardless of what everyone else wanted or thought)
Boris said. I am leader of the party. This is my policy. If you don’t agree then there’s the door
He won a clear majority of Tory MPs.
Those that don’t support the leadership on this fundamental policy can exit stage left
That would mean Bozo has broken his promise and keeps the Brexit Party taking votes from the Tories .
An election before then could still deliver a no deal if the Tories get a majority .
The one thing that has changed though is the removal of the whip from the rebels . If you’ve got nothing left to lose then more of those rebels might back a VONC .
Wow. When is their next meeting? I wonder if Cummings Wargamed his expulsion?
thats still possible.
Rees-Mogg's 'arrogant' speech cost government four extra votes, says Tory rebel.
[...] it has emerged that he single-handedly managed to push the size of the rebellion last night over the 20 mark. In an interview with the Today programme’s Ross Hawkins, Guto Bebb, one of the most prominent rebels, said that Rees-Mogg’s speech helped to persuade four MPs to join him in voting against the government. Bebb said:
"There were at least four individuals who were still doubtful who changed their position to being supportive and voting with us on the back of Jacob’s performance. He was deemed to be arrogant, out of touch and I think the way in which he treated some of the interventions was a red rag to bull in many cases."
Mogg is getting most publicity this morning for his unusual posture on the Treasury bench.
The public aren't fools, if Parliament forces an extension with Boris voting against [and expelling any Tories who vote in favour] then it will be the opposition who broke Boris's pledge not Boris.
Boris will spend the next couple of months shouting from the rooftops this is why he needs a majority. And he'd be right.
The Conservative Conference would be an election rally.
I'd expect the Tories to be at least 40% by November if this happens.