Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Unelected PM Boris Johnson maintains his 100% record in Parlia

123457»

Comments

  • viewcode said:

    If I dropped dead tomorrow, people would briefly cheer/mourn and then forget about me. Real life is away from this PC...

    ...and on that cheerful thought I am off. Goodnight... :)

    I'm quite confident that when I drop dead, hopefully many years hence rather than a few hours so, that none of you will ever be aware of it.
    AndyJS said:

    So No Deal can still happen if Boris wins the election and can't get the deal he wants?

    No Deal can happen as soon as there is a Commons majority for it.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited September 2019
    AndyJS said:

    So No Deal can still happen if Boris wins the election and can't get the deal he wants?

    Yes. But let's think the possibilities through:

    1) Con Majority > 10: Doesn't need the DUP, so do the NI-only backstop, rename it "alternative arrangements" and declare victory.
    2) Con Majority < 10 / Con+DUP Majority: Can't get a deal through, but there are still enough rebels left in the Tory Party to combine with the opposition and block No Deal.
    3) Less than that: Corbyn won't do No Deal

    ...so you only get No Deal if either:
    1) BXP win a bunch of seats and Boris needs their votes. But that's hard to square with Boris still being PM
    2) Boris genuinely wants to do No Deal, as opposed to this all being politics, which sounds improbable
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Somebody just back Oct GE down from 2.3 to 1.77.

    Whether they have inside info re any deal - who knows!
  • MikeL said:

    Somebody just back Oct GE down from 2.3 to 1.77.

    Whether they have inside info re any deal - who knows!

    I think that move would also be justified by publicly available information: If the bill passes and gets Royal Assent in time, what seems to be Corbyn's current justification for refusing an election disappears and he'd probably vote for it.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Is Corbyn likely to agree to an election now, with the news from the Lords?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    There was never going to be another EU referendum before a GE, in my opinion. A general election is the closest thing there's going to be to one. (There might just be another referendum after the GE if the Tories lose and the new government can't decide what to do).
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    - Go to Council meeting and say, "I'll have the WA with the original NI-only backstop please."
    - Sell it as a triumphant removal of the backstop and get it through the HoC


    WA+lipstick will only work with a pretty sizable majority. Seems unlikely.
  • MikeL said:

    Somebody just back Oct GE down from 2.3 to 1.77.

    Whether they have inside info re any deal - who knows!

    We know there has been a deal between the Commons front benches because that was explicitly stated by both Lords front benches. We are all assuming the deal includes Labour voting for a GE because why else have the Government gift wrapped the Benn Bill ?

    That assumption is more than enough to move Betfair by 0.6.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    edited September 2019

    MikeL said:

    Somebody just back Oct GE down from 2.3 to 1.77.

    Whether they have inside info re any deal - who knows!

    I think that move would also be justified by publicly available information: If the bill passes and gets Royal Assent in time, what seems to be Corbyn's current justification for refusing an election disappears and he'd probably vote for it.
    Yes, but does Corbyn still insist on date post 31 Oct so Boris has humiliation of having to extend?

    But if GE voted through on Mon / Tues it's then a very long campaign if GE not until early Nov.

    But also very tight the other way as well - Boris planned date of 15 Oct is exactly 5 weeks from Tuesday - implying vote on Monday and then 24 hours for dissolution + proclamation - not sure if that's possible.

    So it's awkward either way.

    Finally if GE not approved until post prorogation then earliest possible GE is final week of Nov - which seems very late in the year weather wise.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited September 2019
    MikeL said:


    Yes, but does Corbyn still insist on date post 31 Oct so Boris has humiliation of having to extend?

    He might, but it's definitely substantially less likely than it was an hour ago.

    It's probably not practical to try to bind him on the date, so if Corbyn wants to avoid the election I think he's more likely to either:

    a) Stall until the recess, then demand Boris un-prorogue parliament so he can vote for the election
    b) Just not whip very hard and let some of his guys abstain
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    Andrew said:

    - Go to Council meeting and say, "I'll have the WA with the original NI-only backstop please."
    - Sell it as a triumphant removal of the backstop and get it through the HoC


    WA+lipstick will only work with a pretty sizable majority. Seems unlikely.
    Indeed. There’s at least 30 odd ERGers that won’t let him do that and conceivably as many that would defect to BPE/Brexit Independent as have just done the other way.

    I suspect if he gets his majority it’s going where I’ve long thought, with an agri union in Ireland, served with a big helping of fudge on everything else. Whether that happens before or some time after No Deal who knows.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281

    MikeL said:

    Somebody just back Oct GE down from 2.3 to 1.77.

    Whether they have inside info re any deal - who knows!

    We know there has been a deal between the Commons front benches because that was explicitly stated by both Lords front benches. We are all assuming the deal includes Labour voting for a GE because why else have the Government gift wrapped the Benn Bill ?

    That assumption is more than enough to move Betfair by 0.6.
    OK thanks - I wasn't watching at that point.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Martin Baxter's latest forecast based on polling:

    Con 350, Lab 193, SNP 51, LD 34.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
  • AndyJS said:

    moonshine said:

    Are we to conclude Boris wants a pre 31 Oct election more than he wants a post No Deal election?

    I thought Boris wanted an election on 15th October.

    The second day of a two day Jewish holiday they moved the original date from to avoid the first day....for some reason.....
    It is so they can accuse Jeremy Corbyn of antisemitism if he urges Jews to vote Labour on Succot. Technically, religious Jews would have a few hours to vote once it gets dark. The tinfoil brigade will have a field day when they see a massive increase in postal votes in some constituencies.
  • Front pages are split between Corbyn's a *** and Boris is a *** (except for the Daily Star which leads on the dangers of large breasts when feeding babies.)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-49588171
  • AndyJS said:

    moonshine said:

    Are we to conclude Boris wants a pre 31 Oct election more than he wants a post No Deal election?

    I thought Boris wanted an election on 15th October.

    The second day of a two day Jewish holiday they moved the original date from to avoid the first day....for some reason.....
    It is so they can accuse Jeremy Corbyn of antisemitism if he urges Jews to vote Labour on Succot. Technically, religious Jews would have a few hours to vote once it gets dark. The tinfoil brigade will have a field day when they see a massive increase in postal votes in some constituencies.
    Sunset around 18.00 by mid-October - but you’re right, plenty of ammo for the conspiracy theorists - what happens if Brexit causes a tin foil shortage?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    How many ways can the remain vote split? :D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    AndyJS said:

    moonshine said:

    Are we to conclude Boris wants a pre 31 Oct election more than he wants a post No Deal election?

    I thought Boris wanted an election on 15th October.

    The second day of a two day Jewish holiday they moved the original date from to avoid the first day....for some reason.....
    It is so they can accuse Jeremy Corbyn of antisemitism if he urges Jews to vote Labour on Succot. Technically, religious Jews would have a few hours to vote once it gets dark. The tinfoil brigade will have a field day when they see a massive increase in postal votes in some constituencies.
    Apparently the only day they can't vote is the Monday. Tuesday is fine, and I think that is the preferred date now (although I am deeply concerned about a non-Thursday general election).
  • Beaconsfield, 2017:

    Conservative Dominic Grieve 36,559 65.3 +2.0
    Labour James English 12,016 21.4 +10.0
    Liberal Democrat Peter Chapman 4,448 7.9 +0.6
    UKIP John Conway 1,609 2.9 -10.9
    Green Russell Secker 1,396 2.5 -1.7

    Referendum: Leave 49%, Remain 51%

    He might hold it if LD stand aside, probably out of reach for Lab even if the Con vote splits perfectly in two.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Beaconsfield, 2017:

    Conservative Dominic Grieve 36,559 65.3 +2.0
    Labour James English 12,016 21.4 +10.0
    Liberal Democrat Peter Chapman 4,448 7.9 +0.6
    UKIP John Conway 1,609 2.9 -10.9
    Green Russell Secker 1,396 2.5 -1.7

    Referendum: Leave 49%, Remain 51%

    He might hold it if LD stand aside, probably out of reach for Lab even if the Con vote splits perfectly in two.

    Yes, he'd have a good chance if there was no LD candidate. If there is a LD candidate I'd expect the official Conservative to be elected.
  • RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    moonshine said:

    Are we to conclude Boris wants a pre 31 Oct election more than he wants a post No Deal election?

    I thought Boris wanted an election on 15th October.

    The second day of a two day Jewish holiday they moved the original date from to avoid the first day....for some reason.....
    It is so they can accuse Jeremy Corbyn of antisemitism if he urges Jews to vote Labour on Succot. Technically, religious Jews would have a few hours to vote once it gets dark. The tinfoil brigade will have a field day when they see a massive increase in postal votes in some constituencies.
    Apparently the only day they can't vote is the Monday. Tuesday is fine, and I think that is the preferred date now (although I am deeply concerned about a non-Thursday general election).
    Tuesday daytime is not fine; Tuesday evening is fine. (Of course, on a normal day, these voters might be at work during the day so would still vote in the evening.)

    It could all be a devious plot to postpone the election till after Brexit by moving polling day one day at a time.

    Like you, I'd prefer to stick to Thursdays but no doubt Cummings (or Crosby) has his reasons.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    moonshine said:

    Are we to conclude Boris wants a pre 31 Oct election more than he wants a post No Deal election?

    I thought Boris wanted an election on 15th October.

    The second day of a two day Jewish holiday they moved the original date from to avoid the first day....for some reason.....
    It is so they can accuse Jeremy Corbyn of antisemitism if he urges Jews to vote Labour on Succot. Technically, religious Jews would have a few hours to vote once it gets dark. The tinfoil brigade will have a field day when they see a massive increase in postal votes in some constituencies.
    Apparently the only day they can't vote is the Monday. Tuesday is fine, and I think that is the preferred date now (although I am deeply concerned about a non-Thursday general election).
    Tuesday daytime is not fine; Tuesday evening is fine. (Of course, on a normal day, these voters might be at work during the day so would still vote in the evening.)

    It could all be a devious plot to postpone the election till after Brexit by moving polling day one day at a time.

    Like you, I'd prefer to stick to Thursdays but no doubt Cummings (or Crosby) has his reasons.
    I think Monday was totally off limits, so an improvement over that.

    I think the reason is the EU Council meeting on the 17th. Why they are bending to the will of the EU is beyond me :p
  • RobD said:

    I think the reason is the EU Council meeting on the 17th. Why they are bending to the will of the EU is beyond me :p

    Boris's whole strategy is to pretend that he's going to get a deal that removes the backstop, once they get right up to the deadline it becomes obvious that he isn't.
  • RobD said:

    I think the reason is the EU Council meeting on the 17th. Why they are bending to the will of the EU is beyond me :p

    Boris's whole strategy is to pretend that he's going to get a deal that removes the backstop, once they get right up to the deadline it becomes obvious that he isn't.
    More notably, Boris wants the election before Brexit in case Project Fear was right.

  • More notably, Boris wants the election before Brexit in case Project Fear was right.

    No "in case" about it, he gets the briefings, he knows No Deal is going to be a shitshow.
  • The Saj had a bad day yesterday. Not only was the whole announcement naked electioneering, there is no guarantee he will be reappointed Chancellor after the election; tellingly, the Prime Minister even had to be stopped from leaving the Chamber. And that's besides the underwhelming delivery. At least it was a good day to bury what ought to have been good news.
  • Is Westminster the last vestige of the drunk at work culture? I'm not sure our politics is the better for it.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited September 2019
    So if the DUP is shrinking, and parliament can stop No Deal, it feels like No Deal should be almost a subset of Con Maj. (Unless we think Macron or Orban are going to say "fuck everything, no more extensions", which is possible but I think pretty improbable, since they would own the consequences.)

    Furthermore, given Con Maj, I think No Deal is no more than a 50/50 shot, since Boris will obviously want to avoid it, and if his majority is big then he can pass a variation on the WA, while if it's teensy he can't make parliament let him do No Deal.

    The upshot is that there's value in either Con Maj, or No No Deal, or both.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/overall-majority
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/brexit/no-deal-brexit
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited September 2019

    The Saj had a bad day yesterday. Not only was the whole announcement naked electioneering, there is no guarantee he will be reappointed Chancellor after the election; tellingly, the Prime Minister even had to be stopped from leaving the Chamber. And that's besides the underwhelming delivery. At least it was a good day to bury what ought to have been good news.

    His voice lacks authority. He sounds like a nervous youth or student.

    Why he is FAV to be Next Con Leader is a mystery to me.

    Javid 10/1
    Mordaunt 16/1
    Rees-Mogg 16/1
    Cleverley 20/1
    Gove 20/1
    Hunt 20/1
    Raab 20/1
    Patel 25/1
    Rudd 25/1
    Stewart 25/1

    What an absolute shower!

    Lacks authority
    Who?
    Gift to SNP
    Who?
    Slimebag
    Personality vacuum
    Evil
    Thick as shit
    ERG despise her
    Is he even still a Tory?

    On past form, the evil one will win it.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    October GE continuing to tighten - now 1.43 / 1.49 with £1,400 wanting to back it at 1.5.

    At 1am it was 2.3.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    Front pages are split between Corbyn's a *** and Boris is a *** (except for the Daily Star which leads on the dangers of large breasts when feeding babies.)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-49588171

    God bless the Star
  • AndyJS said:

    Martin Baxter's latest forecast based on polling:

    Con 350, Lab 193, SNP 51, LD 34.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

    When the **** are we getting some new polling? My nerves can't take it!

    Will the Tories lose points due to their collective meltdown? Will enraged Leavers flock to them now that Boris has purged the party? Will both effects cancel each other out?
This discussion has been closed.