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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Elevator Pitch

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited September 5 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Elevator Pitch

It’s all frightfully exciting, isn’t it?!

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Great article. This is why the opposition parties need to ensure most of the campaign is spent on domestic policy and when Brexit is discussed it's framed around Boris' character flaws not policy. I'm sure all opposition parties will do the later and certainly Labour will do the former.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,081
    The GE is pretty much decided, no? So the pitches are:

    LD: End the whole clown-shoes shit-show
    Lab: Negotiate Norway so Brexit doesn't threaten your job, them let the voters decide

    The Lab one isn't particularly snappy, but the first and second parts are a bit stronger on their own, and candidates can decide which half to pitch depending on their respective elevators.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,571
    Thirty second pitch?

    ‘Bollocks to Brexit’ was a promising start for the Lib Dems. Unfortunately, Swinson had to abandon it, or lose her own seat. She is entirely dependent on SCon tactical votes to cling on.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,786
    Boris will campaign like Theresa May, only a lot better. Boris will shine at the public meetings (confined to Tory activists) whereas May dried up. Like his predecessor, Boris will not go within a mile of a debate, an interview or the general public. It could work.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,081

    Boris will campaign like Theresa May, only a lot better. Boris will shine at the public meetings (confined to Tory activists) whereas May dried up. Like his predecessor, Boris will not go within a mile of a debate, an interview or the general public. It could work.

    Do you think he'll duck the debates? Conventional wisdom was that that was one of the things that did for TMay. I'm not sure he'll want Farage to be the only guy on the stage representing Brexit.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 1,188
    edited September 5
    Excellent header. The idea of getting "it" over with, whoever gets to define what "it" is, is indeed at the core of our current political battle and the key to success for all parties involved in it.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,786

    Boris will campaign like Theresa May, only a lot better. Boris will shine at the public meetings (confined to Tory activists) whereas May dried up. Like his predecessor, Boris will not go within a mile of a debate, an interview or the general public. It could work.

    Do you think he'll duck the debates? Conventional wisdom was that that was one of the things that did for TMay. I'm not sure he'll want Farage to be the only guy on the stage representing Brexit.
    Boris has spent his political lifetime ducking debates and scrutiny, as Mayor of London and in government. I'd expect there to be a reason found. Boris hates debates. Lynton Crosby hates debates (at least when his candidate is ahead).
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,081
    I do think it's a risk for Labour that "renegotiation" sounds like it will drag on forever. The solution is probably to explicitly commit to Norway and say "this will be fast because we'll use an existing thing". You lose something in fudgeability by commiting to something specific, but most of the people who will object to the details are probably already on the No Deal bus.
  • Boris will campaign like Theresa May, only a lot better. Boris will shine at the public meetings (confined to Tory activists) whereas May dried up. Like his predecessor, Boris will not go within a mile of a debate, an interview or the general public. It could work.

    Do you think he'll duck the debates? Conventional wisdom was that that was one of the things that did for TMay. I'm not sure he'll want Farage to be the only guy on the stage representing Brexit.
    Boris will follow his leadership campaign strategy. After some time consuming negotiations he'll agree to one debate after the postal vote peak. Swinson, Price and Berry will get a modest bump from novelty value.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 1,188
    edited September 5
    A lot of this situation has arisen because the Tories were very careful to try and elide weariness with the whole process with some form of Brexit rallying cry very early on in Theresa May's reign. In fact what other form of Brexit rallying cry have they used ?

    There was no efffective countering of this message at the time, so now paradoxically and shamelessly the Tories have converted weariness into enthusiasm even in part of the public's own mind.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 1,188
    edited September 5
    The other theme has been the referendum as representing a great and overwhelming majority of the public, or an inherent spirit of the nation, The People, ofcourse, but it's noticeable how that's usually been enlisted against the "traitors", and those out to "stop Brexit". The stated impetus for Brexit, repeated the most often by Tories thousands of times since 2017, has been about removing or getting a process out of the way.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,193

    I do think it's a risk for Labour that "renegotiation" sounds like it will drag on forever. The solution is probably to explicitly commit to Norway and say "this will be fast because we'll use an existing thing". You lose something in fudgeability by commiting to something specific, but most of the people who will object to the details are probably already on the No Deal bus.

    I agree, surely no one wants renegotiation. The only way it'll work is if there a large, stable Labour majority which would give confidence that whatever was agreed would get ratified.

    Is anyone really willing to sign up to years of Corbyn doing a deal with Brussels and then potentially fail to ratify it because it depends on Lib Dem or SNP votes to get through the HoC.

    I think we're at the "better a end with horror than horror without end" stage of this. The tory pitch needs to be leave with us, or revoke with them.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 954
    This is a great article. Or, rather, the first half of it is. The second half is a bit disingenuous really.

    The LibDems have an incredibly clear elevator pitch. Bollocks to Brexit is a 3-second pitch, let alone a 30-second one. It's THE clearest message of any political party and it resonates with c. 55% of the voting population.

    Labour's message is more nuanced, to put it politely. It's actually evolving into a pretty decent approach but Cyclefree is almost certainly right about the weariness factor. It may hurt Labour.

    At the same time, despite all the brouhaha this will NOT only be a Brexit election. Oh, it may start that way. The red tops will try their best. But for the very reason that Cyclefree states, namely weariness with Brexit, the General Election campaign will move on to other topics.

    When the Election is finally announced on Monday there will be all to play for.
  • The filibuster was clearly a sham and the govt have agreed to give royal assent.

    Not only were they never serious about stopping the extension and election, they actively forced these events to happen because the PM knows no-deal on 31 Oct is a disaster and wants no part of it.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,081
    The other thing Labour need is a good *critique* of the Tory pitch, which blames them for failing to get the brexit negotiations done in a way that sounds like Lab would be better.

    I guess the line to take is that the Tories are trying to make a deregulated pirate island with low wages and unsafe working conditions to outcompete the rest of the EU, and the rest of the EU won't agree to that because they don't have cornflakes for brains. This is why the Tories keep marching up to the top of the hill claiming that the EU will blink, then backing down at the last minute. The thing about this is that it means the approach that has been failing for the last three years is going to keep on failing even if they go No Deal and try to negotiate a trade deal.

    OK, that wasn't very snappy, but something along those lines...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,988
    Good morning, everyone.

    If only someone had mentioned that a man who was an utterly incompetent Foreign Secretary might not be a competent PM.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 3,020
    edited September 5
    This entire mess is the product of the failure of the large majority of the political class both to face up to reality and to embrace the logic of their decisions.

    First, a large majority of MPs voted to hold a referendum that contained an option they thought would never be voted for and did not want to happen. None of them seems to have devoted any thought to what the Hell they were going to do in the event of a Leave vote; we certainly know that the Second Cameron Ministry did absolutely zero work to prepare for it.

    Second, most of the Commons then voted to trigger Article 50, when clearly most of them were also still deeply reluctant to go and, again, they had no idea how. Ladies and gentlemen, the logical conclusion of a decision to set a timer for the UK's departure from the EU is that, if you can't conclude new arrangements within the agreed timescale (e.g. no majority can be found for any kind of Withdrawal Agreement,) then you simply leave without one. Again, there are hundreds of prize idiots at Westminster who failed to think of this before they cast their votes.

    Hence the fact that we now find ourselves at the point, more than three years after the referendum, where we're effectively no further forward (unless, by some miracle, May's deal is debated again and clears the Commons) actually to leaving the EU than we were on June 24th 2016. The public is absolutely sick of it, faith in representative democracy is being steadily corroded, and a substantial fraction of the Leave vote is either disillusioned, incandescent with rage or both about being thwarted.

    Which brings us to what could be the most dangerous failure of all. Third, how does Boris Johnson choose to face the logical consequences of his pledge not to go to the European Council and ask for a Brexit extension, given that it now seems certain that the Hilary Benn legislation will reach the statute book? Well, Jeremy Corbyn could yet bail him out by agreeing to an October 15th election, but what happens if the Leader of the Opposition finds an excuse to take Keir Starmer's advice and decline to do so?

    If Boris Johnson is both true to his word AND respects the rule of law, he must then, logically, resign as Prime Minister. The awful risk is that he won't be any better at embracing logic than Parliament has been, and he'll attempt to defy the law in order to keep his promise to the electorate. And, crucially, that a large chunk of the electorate responds to his illegality not with gasps of horror, but with an outbreak of national cheering.

    Populism really takes root when respect for lawmakers is so diminished that the electorate itself (or, at any rate, a big enough chunk of it to destabilise the system,) comes to its own logical conclusion: that the law itself, being passed by disreputable individuals operating in a broken system, is worthless. And then we're all in desperate trouble.
  • This is a great article. Or, rather, the first half of it is. The second half is a bit disingenuous really.

    The LibDems have an incredibly clear elevator pitch. Bollocks to Brexit is a 3-second pitch, let alone a 30-second one. It's THE clearest message of any political party and it resonates with c. 55% of the voting population.

    Labour's message is more nuanced, to put it politely. It's actually evolving into a pretty decent approach but Cyclefree is almost certainly right about the weariness factor. It may hurt Labour.

    At the same time, despite all the brouhaha this will NOT only be a Brexit election. Oh, it may start that way. The red tops will try their best. But for the very reason that Cyclefree states, namely weariness with Brexit, the General Election campaign will move on to other topics.

    When the Election is finally announced on Monday there will be all to play for.

    Bollocks to brexit doesnt resonate with 55% of the population at all.

    I voted remain and whilst disliking all the parties, I would dislike the LDs the least! However I think soft brexit is a better way forward, there was a referendum, it should be respected, and revoke is no more of an end state than no deal is - we would only ever be one GE from an election that could produce a no deal govt that could rightly say it doesnt need any further mandate from the people than the GE.

    I dont want to leave, but think we should, and it is a possibly long term tactical mistake, and certainly bad for the country, that the LDs have not been open at all to soft Brexit.
  • Boris will campaign like Theresa May, only a lot better. Boris will shine at the public meetings (confined to Tory activists) whereas May dried up. Like his predecessor, Boris will not go within a mile of a debate, an interview or the general public. It could work.

    Do you think he'll duck the debates? Conventional wisdom was that that was one of the things that did for TMay. I'm not sure he'll want Farage to be the only guy on the stage representing Brexit.
    Yes he will duck the debates. His senior MPs bar the headbangers wont actively campaign for him. It will be very much like May. Including the result.
  • The other thing Labour need is a good *critique* of the Tory pitch, which blames them for failing to get the brexit negotiations done in a way that sounds like Lab would be better.

    I guess the line to take is that the Tories are trying to make a deregulated pirate island with low wages and unsafe working conditions to outcompete the rest of the EU, and the rest of the EU won't agree to that because they don't have cornflakes for brains. This is why the Tories keep marching up to the top of the hill claiming that the EU will blink, then backing down at the last minute. The thing about this is that it means the approach that has been failing for the last three years is going to keep on failing even if they go No Deal and try to negotiate a trade deal.

    OK, that wasn't very snappy, but something along those lines...

    Save the NHS, Mini Trump, and save 10m lambs from being cremated for Boris.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,633

    Good morning, everyone.

    If only someone had mentioned that a man who was an utterly incompetent Foreign Secretary might not be a competent PM.

    It's a conundrum to be sure ....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,940
    The weariness factor comes across time after time in interviews with the public and, for many of us, in private conversations. I'm very attracted by the LibDem proposal to 'just scrap the whole damn silly idea' but there is unquestionably a sector of the public which says 'Hang on, we voted to Leave'. And I think it's quite a significant sector. And I don't think it's all 55+ year old's either.
    I don't think we could have both another referendum and an election fairly close together, either, although it was OK in 1975.
    So Norway and the backstop in Ireland it has to be! (There are Customs posts on the border with Sweden) Possibly with a re-unification referendum in N. Ireland, depending upon the result of their forthcoming elections.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,833

    Good morning, everyone.

    If only someone had mentioned that a man who was an utterly incompetent Foreign Secretary might not be a competent PM.

    Politics is a funny business. Brown was an utterly incompetent Chancellor of the Exchequer and subsequently an utterly incompetent PM, but Labour MP's still gave him the gig.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,633
    I think PB requires the fullest itinerary of the travel plans of a certain Michael Smithson Esq so that our humble community might be able to draw breath for a few moments.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 145
    I am going to plant my flag in the HYFUD side of the line. I’m quite surprised that so many here think we’re close to seeing the killing off of a No deal Brexit or Brexit entirely. As far as I can see, it’s closer to happening than ever.

    Nothing that has happened in the past 6 weeks would have come as much of a surprise to Tory HQ. Their strategy all along seems to have been to find a way of nullifying Farage even upon a pre Brexit election, making Corbyn look like he’s dragging on the country’s pain and uncertainty for no good reason, restore party discipline and inoculate the “Tory Austerity” attack line. He gets at least a B+ for much of this with the end of austerity bit something he’ll be happy to talk about in the campaign.

    Johnson is also self aware enough to know he’s weak at the despatch box. Could be he manages to go to the country with just a solitary PMQs that Momentum can mine for social media footage.

    Rudd quitting would be a significant unforeseen blow but thus far there’s little sign of that. Soames will have hurt him personally but I don’t think it cuts through much with Joe Normal.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 3,020

    Bollocks to brexit doesnt resonate with 55% of the population at all.

    I voted remain and whilst disliking all the parties, I would dislike the LDs the least! However I think soft brexit is a better way forward, there was a referendum, it should be respected, and revoke is no more of an end state than no deal is - we would only ever be one GE from an election that could produce a no deal govt that could rightly say it doesnt need any further mandate from the people than the GE.

    I dont want to leave, but think we should, and it is a possibly long term tactical mistake, and certainly bad for the country, that the LDs have not been open at all to soft Brexit.

    Brexit-Without-End is avoidable, and it can be done relatively quickly if an election produces the right Parliamentary arithmetic, i.e. putting the Lib Dems in a strong enough position to hold the balance of power, and Swinson et al. are sufficiently ruthless. They need to sell their support to Labour in exchange for the following:

    1. A Deal vs Remain referendum, after Corbyn has completed his "renegotiation." The Deal will inevitably be something very similar to Theresa May's, which politicians and commentators have eviscerated, and the referendum would also be vulnerable to a boycott by disgruntled hardcore Leavers. Remain would therefore have an excellent chance of winning
    2. Insist on PR for Westminster. That'll allow the pro-EU consensus parties to put a permanent lid on the Brexit movement. I'm not persuaded that leaving the EU is as visceral an issue for quite as many people as independence is in Scotland, and the moderate middle of the British public is heartily sick of it. A nationalist party campaigning to implement the original Leave vote is highly unlikely ever to win enough support to form a single-party administration in a proportional system, and can therefore be thwarted

    I'm not necessarily advocating such a course of action but, again, referring back to my previous post about the logic of politician's positioning, if there really is a majority in Parliament that is utterly terrified of leaving the EU and thinks it a disaster, then taking measures that reduce the likelihood of that occurrence to as near zero as possible, within a framework that is consistent with democratic governance, is what they should be contemplating.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,786
    edited September 5
    moonshine said:

    I am going to plant my flag in the HYFUD side of the line. I’m quite surprised that so many here think we’re close to seeing the killing off of a No deal Brexit or Brexit entirely. As far as I can see, it’s closer to happening than ever.

    Nothing that has happened in the past 6 weeks would have come as much of a surprise to Tory HQ. Their strategy all along seems to have been to find a way of nullifying Farage even upon a pre Brexit election, making Corbyn look like he’s dragging on the country’s pain and uncertainty for no good reason, restore party discipline and inoculate the “Tory Austerity” attack line. He gets at least a B+ for much of this with the end of austerity bit something he’ll be happy to talk about in the campaign.

    Johnson is also self aware enough to know he’s weak at the despatch box. Could be he manages to go to the country with just a solitary PMQs that Momentum can mine for social media footage.

    Rudd quitting would be a significant unforeseen blow but thus far there’s little sign of that. Soames will have hurt him personally but I don’t think it cuts through much with Joe Normal.

    Yes, there is a good deal in that. The magic money tree has been shaken to shoot Labour's foxes. The date is there to shoot Farage's. And the election will be held before Brexit itself summons the ten plagues and four horsemen. Boris could well follow John Major.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,780
    My better half, who doesn't share my obsession with the details of all this, is exactly where Cyclefree describes. She did not make her mind up to vote leave until the Monday of the week with the vote. She was genuinely unsure and frankly didn't feel strongly about it one way or another but she thinks you should always use your vote.

    Now she is genuinely angry and frustrated at a political class who won't do what they were told and seem to want to drag this out interminably. She is at the point (as I suspect many are) where she is not listening at all to anything any of them are saying, she just wants this done. Many others I have spoken to on both sides of the argument have said something similar. A further extension is a terrible idea, even if in some peoples eyes that still makes it better than the alternatives.

    We need a deal and we need it now. Boris will hopefully come back from the meeting in Brussels in October with a deal critics will say is very like what May had. If Parliament rejects it I honestly fear for the stability of our nation.
  • moonshine said:

    I am going to plant my flag in the HYFUD side of the line. I’m quite surprised that so many here think we’re close to seeing the killing off of a No deal Brexit or Brexit entirely. As far as I can see, it’s closer to happening than ever.

    Nothing that has happened in the past 6 weeks would have come as much of a surprise to Tory HQ. Their strategy all along seems to have been to find a way of nullifying Farage even upon a pre Brexit election, making Corbyn look like he’s dragging on the country’s pain and uncertainty for no good reason, restore party discipline and inoculate the “Tory Austerity” attack line. He gets at least a B+ for much of this with the end of austerity bit something he’ll be happy to talk about in the campaign.

    Johnson is also self aware enough to know he’s weak at the despatch box. Could be he manages to go to the country with just a solitary PMQs that Momentum can mine for social media footage.

    Rudd quitting would be a significant unforeseen blow but thus far there’s little sign of that. Soames will have hurt him personally but I don’t think it cuts through much with Joe Normal.

    If the govt actually wanted to no deal he would have prorogued starting in mid October without notice, which would have delivered no deal without the need for any election.

    On the rest of the points I would mostly agree that they have ticked off most of their election planning points, blame Labour, look like they are serious about delivering Brexit and will stop austerity.

    But and its a big but, they have underestimated how this mess plays with ex Labour voters who strongly dislike Corbyn, and have switched from Lab to other parties in the polls. The govt has looked untrustworthy, aloof and reckless. At the same time Corbyn has been working with and listening to senior MPs in his party, Hammond, Clarke, the SNP, the LDs, Caroline Lucas.

    It will now be very easy for those voters, and there are a lot of them, to vote anti Tory, anti no deal, which in reality for many means voting Labour for most as there are way more Lab-Tory marginals than anything else.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952

    The filibuster was clearly a sham and the govt have agreed to give royal assent.

    Not only were they never serious about stopping the extension and election, they actively forced these events to happen because the PM knows no-deal on 31 Oct is a disaster and wants no part of it.

    Very possible. I’d say the ideal outcome, for Boris, would be this: being ‘forced’ into a GE where he can be the man of the People, versus Parliament. Then he wins a decent majority, with which he can force through a deal, of sorts. And with five years of his premiership to go, he has a chance to make Brexit work...

    But for this to pan out, he needs the EU to cooperate. This FT article (£) says they won’t. They want us gone.

    https://www.ft.com/content/110207f2-cea2-11e9-b018-ca4456540ea6?desktop=true

    Is it true? Possibly not.

    Oh, and nice article, Ms Cyclefree.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489
    @DavidL it will be the Brexit Party who will lead any opposition to a May-like deal.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,387
    A pitch for the remote chance you get into an elevator with a Leaver who is amenable to changing their vote from BP or Johnsonian Tory?

    "Can you imagine never agreeing anything with our neighbours in Europe? Do you want that? If that's a No, we need to engage with the EU and its member states. We have an initial agreement on the table. Let's get started with that. Negotiation is dreary and hard work but government's are there to do that kind of stuff."
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,549

    Good morning, everyone.

    If only someone had mentioned that a man who was an utterly incompetent Foreign Secretary might not be a competent PM.

    I might have mentioned it...

    Labours pitch for a Norway Brexit, subject to a referendum, is a very marketable one. This indeed is an endpoint with no further Brexit discussion needed.

    Boris's No Deal (and it is obvious that there are no renegotiations and he cannot get his own party to back the WA) is a starting point for endless intractable discussions. No Deal is not an endpoint, but a starting one.

    Ivan Rogers describes the perpetual hell of No Deal quite well here:

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 954
    edited September 5
    Those of you still under the illusion that Boris Johnson is somehow still in control of events and that this is all part of a cunning strategy would do well to read this piece:
    https://news.sky.com/story/johnsons-personality-has-made-the-brexit-crisis-worse-11802482

    As most of us on here realised long ago, Johnson is a charlatan tosspot: a useless self-serving loser who is always overstated in the polls. He blows every which way and has allowed an even more politically dimwitted anarchist to push his party into an official No Deal Brexit: which is now their only course of action.

    No Deal is finished. Dead. The only way it could happen is if Johnson wins a stonking majority, which isn't going to happen, especially on that manifesto.

    If he retains the support of the red tops and Telegraph, Johnson might avoid a Corbyn outright majority. But as I said yesterday, parties that go into elections disunited, let alone ripping themselves asunder in open civil war, do NOT win elections.

    Bet accordingly.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952

    Those of you still under the illusion that Boris Johnson is somehow still in control of events and that this is all part of a cunning strategy would do well to read this piece:
    https://news.sky.com/story/johnsons-personality-has-made-the-brexit-crisis-worse-11802482

    As most of us on here realised long ago, Johnson is a charlatan tosspot: a useless self-serving loser who is always overstated in the polls. He blows every which way and has allowed an even more politically dimwitted anarchist to push his party into an official No Deal Brexit: which is now their only course of action.

    No Deal is finished. Dead. The only way it could happen is if Johnson wins a stonking majority, which isn't going to happen, especially on that manifesto.

    If he retains the support of the red tops and telegraph, Johnson might avoid a Corbyn outright majority. But as I said yesterday, parties that go into elections disunited, let alone ripping themselves asunder in open civil war, do NOT win elections.

    Bet accordingly.

    As ever, we await some post-Surrender Bill polls. Until then we know almost nothing. Where are the polls?!?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,988
    Mr. P, Conservative MPs only have themselves to blame for backing Boris Johnson to be leader.

    Mr. L, an extension for an actual reason could make sense. Just stringing out the indecision is one more political failure.
  • I mix (professionally and socially) in predominantly remainer circles and I have not, as yet, heard criticism of Johnson in the way he is trying to push through Brexit.

    To a man (and woman) there is frustration and anger at Corbyn and parliament for a perception of 'playing games'.

    It doesn't mean these sorts of people are necessariy going to vote for Boris but Labour are in big trouble if the feeling of fatigue and frustration are symptomatic of the country generally.

    Why would you vote Labour unless you are a legacy drone from yesteryear?

    The LD's and SNP will be fine as they've played a straight bat pretty much all the way through.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,940
    I don't think the EU want us 'gone'; they want us to stop playing 'silly beggars'. May first of all went to the country to get a majority, but the country demonstrated that it was still of the same mind, or at least in the same two minds. Then she came back with a fairly reasonable deal which for some reason the headbangers didn't want and so it went on.
    I wonder how Varadkar will make it clear enough to Johnson that there MUST be acceptable arrangements on the Irish border. Trouble is, Johnson doesn't 'do' detail.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,193
    Byronic said:



    But for this to pan out, he needs the EU to cooperate. This FT article (£) says they won’t. They want us gone.

    https://www.ft.com/content/110207f2-cea2-11e9-b018-ca4456540ea6?desktop=true

    Is it true? Possibly not.

    If the British people are bored with this, then the EU must be doubly so.

    In their position, wouldn't you just want the UK gone ? I think the worst case scenario for them would be a 51% revoke, and decades more of this with a reluctant member one election away from another article 50 notification

  • Byronic said:

    The filibuster was clearly a sham and the govt have agreed to give royal assent.

    Not only were they never serious about stopping the extension and election, they actively forced these events to happen because the PM knows no-deal on 31 Oct is a disaster and wants no part of it.

    Very possible. I’d say the ideal outcome, for Boris, would be this: being ‘forced’ into a GE where he can be the man of the People, versus Parliament. Then he wins a decent majority, with which he can force through a deal, of sorts. And with five years of his premiership to go, he has a chance to make Brexit work...

    But for this to pan out, he needs the EU to cooperate. This FT article (£) says they won’t. They want us gone.

    https://www.ft.com/content/110207f2-cea2-11e9-b018-ca4456540ea6?desktop=true

    Is it true? Possibly not.

    Oh, and nice article, Ms Cyclefree.
    At most the EU could prepared to either help slightly on the backstop (perhaps a 5 year term limit or something) or producing something similar to the backstop with a different name. As it is the last concession they would make, they need to know it will get thru parliament before they could offer it, hence the need for an election.

    If the PM thinks he can get a majority of 30-40, with a higher percentage of yes men (and women) MPs, he would no longer be reliant on the DUP or the extreme part of the ERG. At that stage the chance of a deal does increase, although it wont be by end October, hence the need for an extension.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 954
    Notwithstanding 'noneoftheabove's' best efforts, I do think the LibDem message will resonate loud and clear with a large part of the country: the 55% who are now Remainers.

    Bin Brexit. Bollocks to Brexit. Remain in the EU. However you wish to describe it, it's absolutely clear. It's beautifully simple. Everything is in place. It requires no further negotiations. It ends the whole Brexit fiasco. It's a resounding rallying call for the Election and the LibDems will do very, very, well as a result.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,335

    The GE is pretty much decided, no? So the pitches are:

    LD: End the whole clown-shoes shit-show
    Lab: Negotiate Norway so Brexit doesn't threaten your job, them let the voters decide

    The Lab one isn't particularly snappy, but the first and second parts are a bit stronger on their own, and candidates can decide which half to pitch depending on their respective elevators.

    Lab will be negotiate Norway. 2nd referendum will be a concession to the Lib Dems for confidence
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,236
    The Cummings-Johnson duo will not like this. Particularly, the senior partner.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,833
    the Concern is about Conservative MP's being deselected.. follow the money...
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 954
    Byronic, Johnson will never be a man of the people. Farage, despite his private school education, can almost pull it off. Etonian Johnson with William Rees-Mogg by his side? No chance.

    As Mike Smithson regularly reminds those with short memories, Johnson never performs in practice as well as the polling suggests.

    He's also turning out to be a piss-poor speaker.

    The Conservatives under Johnson-Cummings have achieved the remarkable feat of publicly ripping themselves apart whilst making Jeremy Corbyn appear statesmanlike and principled.

    It's over. For Johnson.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 3,131

    Notwithstanding 'noneoftheabove's' best efforts, I do think the LibDem message will resonate loud and clear with a large part of the country: the 55% who are now Remainers.

    Bin Brexit. Bollocks to Brexit. Remain in the EU. However you wish to describe it, it's absolutely clear. It's beautifully simple. Everything is in place. It requires no further negotiations. It ends the whole Brexit fiasco. It's a resounding rallying call for the Election and the LibDems will do very, very, well as a result.

    You seem rather naive if you think "it ends the whole Brexit fiasco".

    Remaining in the EU is no more a stable endpoint than No Deal Brexit.
  • Notwithstanding 'noneoftheabove's' best efforts, I do think the LibDem message will resonate loud and clear with a large part of the country: the 55% who are now Remainers.

    Bin Brexit. Bollocks to Brexit. Remain in the EU. However you wish to describe it, it's absolutely clear. It's beautifully simple. Everything is in place. It requires no further negotiations. It ends the whole Brexit fiasco. It's a resounding rallying call for the Election and the LibDems will do very, very, well as a result.

    I dont doubt the LDs will do well. If it truly resonates with 55% of the country, and given how awful the alternatives are, the LDs should be polling 35-45%?

    Them polling around 15-25% suggests it resonates with closer to a third of the country, than the majority. Just as no dealers falsely conflate no deal with support for leaving, it is no good conflating revoke with an original remain vote.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,081
    Pulpstar said:


    Lab will be negotiate Norway. 2nd referendum will be a concession to the Lib Dems for confidence

    I'm pretty sure they'll advertise the second referendum part too, the name of the game is to hold Remainia, but minimize their damage in Leavistan.
  • Scott_P said:
    Always interesting to see what Theo Bertram has to say about Brexit.

    Please keep an eye out for Aunt Gladys' next tweet won't you.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 954
    None of, LibDems tend to be under-stated in polls at the moment, esp certain pollsters.

    More importantly, they're targeting effectively. The regional splits in this election will be really important and they're bad news for the tories. Cummings (and Byronic) is completely wrong to think they will win the Labour heartlands. They won't. The south will see massive swings to LibDems. Scotland will see big swings away from the tories.

    Johnson is up a creek without a paddle.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 50,091

    Please keep an eye out for Aunt Gladys' next tweet won't you.

    When did she work in Downing Street?
  • Byronic, Johnson will never be a man of the people. Farage, despite his private school education, can almost pull it off. Etonian Johnson with William Rees-Mogg by his side? No chance.

    As Mike Smithson regularly reminds those with short memories, Johnson never performs in practice as well as the polling suggests.

    He's also turning out to be a piss-poor speaker.

    The Conservatives under Johnson-Cummings have achieved the remarkable feat of publicly ripping themselves apart whilst making Jeremy Corbyn appear statesmanlike and principled.

    It's over. For Johnson.

    Interesting you are so confident it is all over for Johnson.

    I am in a charitable mood so I am going to give you the opportunity of backing your proclamations with a straight bet on most seats at the next GE (Tory v Labour).

    Any stake you like on Labour and i'll match it on the Tories.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,640
    moonshine said:

    I am going to plant my flag in the HYFUD side of the line. I’m quite surprised that so many here think we’re close to seeing the killing off of a No deal Brexit or Brexit entirely. As far as I can see, it’s closer to happening than ever.

    No Deal and Revocation have both become more probable in the last six weeks.

    The mushy middle had receded, which is good for intellectual purity. And bad for the lives of real, actual human beings.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,387
    Scott_P said:
    The Scottish version resonates. The English version not so much.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,335
    We will see what happens to the Tory vote tonight btw with a strong campaign, good candidate and favourable polling background
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952

    Byronic said:



    But for this to pan out, he needs the EU to cooperate. This FT article (£) says they won’t. They want us gone.

    https://www.ft.com/content/110207f2-cea2-11e9-b018-ca4456540ea6?desktop=true

    Is it true? Possibly not.

    If the British people are bored with this, then the EU must be doubly so.

    In their position, wouldn't you just want the UK gone ? I think the worst case scenario for them would be a 51% revoke, and decades more of this with a reluctant member one election away from another article 50 notification

    I’ve no doubt there are members of the political elite, across Europe, and especially in Paris, who are hacked off with Britain, and would like to cut us loose. Perhaps they even see selfish gain in it.

    However I also believe the majority would still love to see Brexit reversed. The idea the EU will be some happy peaceful ambrosial place, once we’re gone, is bollocks. The euro is still crocked, Greece is still in pain, Italy stagnates, Germany is heading into recession, the migration crisis worsens, Hungary and Poland are snarling. With most if not all of these problems, the EU is much better off with the UK in not out.

    And wiser EU bods surely know that a Brexit, of any form, is a horrible, grievous blow to the prestige of The Project. Losing your 2nd or 3rd most powerful member. Joint biggest military power. Home of Europe’s greatest city. Home of the English language. The EU’s best universities. Much of its best science. Etc

    They don’t want that. Even if we deeply irritate them.

    Suspect the FT dude heard what the EU wanted FT readers to read.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,780
    The cacophony of Brexit is not just bad for our politics, it is drowning almost everything else out. So we had Javid yesterday announce billions of pounds of additional spending, the biggest annual increase since the madness of Brown was in full flow, and he barely gets a headline off the financial press.

    This was a massive change in government policy. The ascetic, unimaginative world view of Hammond based on smaller government, lower taxes, squeezing government spending and doing as little as possible has been replaced by something that is much closer to what at least Ed Miliband would have gone for if not the full McDonnell who doesn't want to just turn on the taps but make good every cut in the last decade, apparently all at once.

    I think that there is a good argument to be had if this is good economics given we are still indulging in excessive consumption and insufficient saving driving a dangerous trade deficit. I can see the likes of @another_richard gnashing their teeth in frustration. There may be an argument that this additional spending will be counter cyclical as the world economy slows down and is a sensible way to offset any adverse consequences of the B word but its not one I would make with any great enthusiasm. Do we really need a government borrowing on our behalf when the great British consumer is already up to their ears in debt?

    From a political point of view the gap between the main parties has got a lot smaller. It won't stop the usual attacks on Labour profligacy of course but will they be credible? I fear the disillusioned such as @TSE, @richard_nabavi and @DavidHerdson will once again be wondering where the hell their party has gone.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 954
    edited September 5

    Byronic, Johnson will never be a man of the people. Farage, despite his private school education, can almost pull it off. Etonian Johnson with William Rees-Mogg by his side? No chance.

    As Mike Smithson regularly reminds those with short memories, Johnson never performs in practice as well as the polling suggests.

    He's also turning out to be a piss-poor speaker.

    The Conservatives under Johnson-Cummings have achieved the remarkable feat of publicly ripping themselves apart whilst making Jeremy Corbyn appear statesmanlike and principled.

    It's over. For Johnson.

    Interesting you are so confident it is all over for Johnson.

    I am in a charitable mood so I am going to give you the opportunity of backing your proclamations with a straight bet on most seats at the next GE (Tory v Labour).

    Any stake you like on Labour and i'll match it on the Tories.
    I already have, with great odds, thanks. I've done it in my usual way, carefully and juggling options that work out well which includes covering myself via LibDem results.

    p.s. I don't tend to lose money betting. We shall see :)
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,081


    If the British people are bored with this, then the EU must be doubly so.

    In their position, wouldn't you just want the UK gone ? I think the worst case scenario for them would be a 51% revoke, and decades more of this with a reluctant member one election away from another article 50 notification

    They might want the UK gone but geographically it's still going to be there no matter what, so one way or another they have to handle it. Signing an extension letter every 6 months is *much* less trouble than having a No Deal exit, dealing with all the immediate disruption, then years of contentious tantrum-negotiation over all the stuff that used to be settled by everybody being in the EU.

    That doesn't mean extensions are guaranteed, since it only takes one leader to blow up the whole thing, but if everyone's being sensible then they're not going to hit the eject button out of sheer boredom.
  • None of, LibDems tend to be under-stated in polls at the moment, esp certain pollsters.

    More importantly, they're targeting effectively. The regional splits in this election will be really important and they're bad news for the tories. Cummings (and Byronic) is completely wrong to think they will win the Labour heartlands. They won't. The south will see massive swings to LibDems. Scotland will see big swings away from the tories.

    Johnson is up a creek without a paddle.

    I agree broadly but think you are getting carried away. The starting point is the polls showing a Tory majority. I think the effects you are mentioning will lead to a hung parliament with perhaps 40-55 LDs.

    You may consider that a great success. Given the state of the Tory/Labour parties, I would consider it par.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,713
    edited September 5
    Cutting through the noise, I can’t shake the feeling that Brexit is now dead.

    My head says that Brexit is at least 80% likely. My gut says it’s over, that Johnson and Cummings have basically transmuted Brexit into a “No Deal” platform which will never carry Parliament or Country.

    Maybe the battle against Brexit is coming to an end. And the war to defeat Corbyn is about to begin.
  • Byronic, Johnson will never be a man of the people. Farage, despite his private school education, can almost pull it off. Etonian Johnson with William Rees-Mogg by his side? No chance.

    As Mike Smithson regularly reminds those with short memories, Johnson never performs in practice as well as the polling suggests.

    He's also turning out to be a piss-poor speaker.

    The Conservatives under Johnson-Cummings have achieved the remarkable feat of publicly ripping themselves apart whilst making Jeremy Corbyn appear statesmanlike and principled.

    It's over. For Johnson.

    I resigned yesterday from the party citing the treatment of Ken Clarke, Rory Stewart and others but also Boris blusterng non answers and general confusion.

    The onslaught Boris came under yesteday is without precedent but I would caution by declaring Boris is over. We have not as yet seen any polling over these recent events but there is a lot of a anecdotal evidence, even with my acquaintances, that the public are furious with the HOC, reject any delay, and just want to leave at the end of October,

    If that is a view across the electorate Boris is far from over

    Remember, we are in a bubble on this forum and it is real non political people who will decide
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,118

    Thirty second pitch?

    ‘Bollocks to Brexit’ was a promising start for the Lib Dems. Unfortunately, Swinson had to abandon it, or lose her own seat. She is entirely dependent on SCon tactical votes to cling on.

    “Bollocks to Brexit” is certainly memorable but is not shared by Labour. It may help the Lib Dems but they are unlikely to form the next government on their own.

    Anyway I have to make my own elevator pitch today so I will check in later.

    Who knows what will have happened by then?!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,791
    edited September 5
    A letter No. 10 can simply ignore.

    Ah, misread. Thought the EU were going to send a letter asking for a extension request. :p

    If they are taking this attitude, can the UK ever actually leave?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,549
    Pulpstar said:

    The GE is pretty much decided, no? So the pitches are:

    LD: End the whole clown-shoes shit-show
    Lab: Negotiate Norway so Brexit doesn't threaten your job, them let the voters decide

    The Lab one isn't particularly snappy, but the first and second parts are a bit stronger on their own, and candidates can decide which half to pitch depending on their respective elevators.

    Lab will be negotiate Norway. 2nd referendum will be a concession to the Lib Dems for confidence
    Lab have already agreed to a further referendum, and astutely so. They will be able to negotiate a soft Brexit fairly quickly. It would be the WA, with a different PD, to a very close alignment. The Irish backstop is not a problem to them, only one to Tories who desire a chlorinated chicken feast.

    It is a deal that anti No Deal Tories could happily sign up to. It doesn't even preclude a later divergence, provided the Border technology can be created.

    Jezza has manoeuvred, perhaps by accident rather than design, into a position that has him as the moderate centrist that can close the issue down.

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 954

    Byronic, Johnson will never be a man of the people. Farage, despite his private school education, can almost pull it off. Etonian Johnson with William Rees-Mogg by his side? No chance.

    As Mike Smithson regularly reminds those with short memories, Johnson never performs in practice as well as the polling suggests.

    He's also turning out to be a piss-poor speaker.

    The Conservatives under Johnson-Cummings have achieved the remarkable feat of publicly ripping themselves apart whilst making Jeremy Corbyn appear statesmanlike and principled.

    It's over. For Johnson.

    I resigned yesterday from the party citing the treatment of Ken Clarke, Rory Stewart and others but also Boris blusterng non answers and general confusion.

    The onslaught Boris came under yesteday is without precedent but I would caution by declaring Boris is over. We have not as yet seen any polling over these recent events but there is a lot of a anecdotal evidence, even with my acquaintances, that the public are furious with the HOC, reject any delay, and just want to leave at the end of October,

    If that is a view across the electorate Boris is far from over

    Remember, we are in a bubble on this forum and it is real non political people who will decide
    You're a good man. It's very sad you left your party but I completely understand why.

    The treatment of those 21, and others including Sonia Khan, is absolutely disgraceful. It's already unravelling.
  • Byronic, Johnson will never be a man of the people. Farage, despite his private school education, can almost pull it off. Etonian Johnson with William Rees-Mogg by his side? No chance.

    As Mike Smithson regularly reminds those with short memories, Johnson never performs in practice as well as the polling suggests.

    He's also turning out to be a piss-poor speaker.

    The Conservatives under Johnson-Cummings have achieved the remarkable feat of publicly ripping themselves apart whilst making Jeremy Corbyn appear statesmanlike and principled.

    It's over. For Johnson.

    Interesting you are so confident it is all over for Johnson.

    I am in a charitable mood so I am going to give you the opportunity of backing your proclamations with a straight bet on most seats at the next GE (Tory v Labour).

    Any stake you like on Labour and i'll match it on the Tories.
    I already have, with great odds, thanks. I've done it in my usual way, carefully and juggling options that work out well which includes covering myself via LibDem results.

    p.s. I don't tend to lose money betting. We shall see :)

    I'll take that as a no then should I?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,713
    edited September 5

    None of, LibDems tend to be under-stated in polls at the moment, esp certain pollsters.

    More importantly, they're targeting effectively. The regional splits in this election will be really important and they're bad news for the tories. Cummings (and Byronic) is completely wrong to think they will win the Labour heartlands. They won't. The south will see massive swings to LibDems. Scotland will see big swings away from the tories.

    Johnson is up a creek without a paddle.

    I agree broadly but think you are getting carried away. The starting point is the polls showing a Tory majority. I think the effects you are mentioning will lead to a hung parliament with perhaps 40-55 LDs.

    You may consider that a great success. Given the state of the Tory/Labour parties, I would consider it par.
    Agree.
    And also, “Bollocks to Brexit” is NOT sufficient.

    They need a answer to the accusation that they will prop up Corbyn; they need an answer to the accusation that they are ignoring the public will.

    The pitch needs to be extended. Every vote for the Lib Dems is a vote against Brexit, against Boris, and against Corbyn : and to...take back control.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 954

    Cutting through the noise, I can’t shake the feeling that Brexit is now dead.

    My head says that Brexit is at least 80% likely. My gut says it’s over, that Johnson and Cummings have basically transmuted Brexit into a “No Deal” platform which will never carry Parliament or Country.

    Maybe the battle against Brexit is coming to an end. And the war to defeat Corbyn is about to begin.


    I think this is right on the money.

    The obvious way to stop Brexit weariness is to kill it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,335

    Byronic, Johnson will never be a man of the people. Farage, despite his private school education, can almost pull it off. Etonian Johnson with William Rees-Mogg by his side? No chance.

    As Mike Smithson regularly reminds those with short memories, Johnson never performs in practice as well as the polling suggests.

    He's also turning out to be a piss-poor speaker.

    The Conservatives under Johnson-Cummings have achieved the remarkable feat of publicly ripping themselves apart whilst making Jeremy Corbyn appear statesmanlike and principled.

    It's over. For Johnson.

    Interesting you are so confident it is all over for Johnson.

    I am in a charitable mood so I am going to give you the opportunity of backing your proclamations with a straight bet on most seats at the next GE (Tory v Labour).

    Any stake you like on Labour and i'll match it on the Tories.
    Most seats for the Tories is almost certain. They have only the DUP as Allies in the chamber
  • I would suggest that would be an illegal act

    If Boris does not undertake the law it is for our Parliamrnt and our Courts to hold him to account, not the EU
  • DavidL said:

    My better half, who doesn't share my obsession with the details of all this, is exactly where Cyclefree describes. She did not make her mind up to vote leave until the Monday of the week with the vote. She was genuinely unsure and frankly didn't feel strongly about it one way or another but she thinks you should always use your vote.

    Now she is genuinely angry and frustrated at a political class who won't do what they were told and seem to want to drag this out interminably. She is at the point (as I suspect many are) where she is not listening at all to anything any of them are saying, she just wants this done. Many others I have spoken to on both sides of the argument have said something similar. A further extension is a terrible idea, even if in some peoples eyes that still makes it better than the alternatives.

    We need a deal and we need it now. Boris will hopefully come back from the meeting in Brussels in October with a deal critics will say is very like what May had. If Parliament rejects it I honestly fear for the stability of our nation.

    How can Johnson come back with a deal like May's when he has made dropping the backstop a red line and kicked out a load of MPs who voted for May's deal? He is committed to no deal now, whatever he says in public about getting a deal at the last minute, because he is insisting on something that the EU cannot agree to. Your fear for our country is wholly justified.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 954

    Byronic, Johnson will never be a man of the people. Farage, despite his private school education, can almost pull it off. Etonian Johnson with William Rees-Mogg by his side? No chance.

    As Mike Smithson regularly reminds those with short memories, Johnson never performs in practice as well as the polling suggests.

    He's also turning out to be a piss-poor speaker.

    The Conservatives under Johnson-Cummings have achieved the remarkable feat of publicly ripping themselves apart whilst making Jeremy Corbyn appear statesmanlike and principled.

    It's over. For Johnson.

    Interesting you are so confident it is all over for Johnson.

    I am in a charitable mood so I am going to give you the opportunity of backing your proclamations with a straight bet on most seats at the next GE (Tory v Labour).

    Any stake you like on Labour and i'll match it on the Tories.
    I already have, with great odds, thanks. I've done it in my usual way, carefully and juggling options that work out well which includes covering myself via LibDem results.

    p.s. I don't tend to lose money betting. We shall see :)

    I'll take that as a no then should I?
    Oh I see. You were being serious. You're touting yourself as a bookie but only offering me a straight Cons v Lab bet?

    Er, I have brilliant odds by juggling some really good bets across national and constituency lines. I very much doubt you have the time or expertise to match the bookies I use. Nor would I trust you to pay up when I win if you did. No offence.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,387
    edited September 5
    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    I am going to plant my flag in the HYFUD side of the line. I’m quite surprised that so many here think we’re close to seeing the killing off of a No deal Brexit or Brexit entirely. As far as I can see, it’s closer to happening than ever.

    No Deal and Revocation have both become more probable in the last six weeks.

    The mushy middle had receded, which is good for intellectual purity. And bad for the lives of real, actual human beings.
    The problem is, thanks to central contradiction of Brexit, Revocation and No Deal have logic to their respective supporters. The mushy middle is about damage limitation when no Remainer or Leaver voted to make things worse. Unless and until people are on board with negotiations for less than what we currently have, in a managed way, the mushy middle doesn't get much of a chance.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,791

    I would suggest that would be an illegal act

    If Boris does not undertake the law it is for our Parliamrnt and our Courts to hold him to account, not the EU
    It's even worse than that. They are basically saying no matter what happens there will be an extension whether you like it or not.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,640
    RobD said:

    A letter No. 10 can simply ignore.

    Ah, misread. Thought the EU were going to send a letter asking for a extension request. :p

    If they are taking this attitude, can the UK ever actually leave?
    Yes.

    All the UK has to do to leave is to repeal the 1973 European Communities Act.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,683

    None of, LibDems tend to be under-stated in polls at the moment, esp certain pollsters.

    More importantly, they're targeting effectively. The regional splits in this election will be really important and they're bad news for the tories. Cummings (and Byronic) is completely wrong to think they will win the Labour heartlands. They won't. The south will see massive swings to LibDems. Scotland will see big swings away from the tories.

    Johnson is up a creek without a paddle.

    How do you know the Lib Dem’s are currently understated in the polls?

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 50,091
    Apparently BoZo says this is the first day of the election campaign. He is in Yorkshire
  • Byronic, Johnson will never be a man of the people. Farage, despite his private school education, can almost pull it off. Etonian Johnson with William Rees-Mogg by his side? No chance.

    As Mike Smithson regularly reminds those with short memories, Johnson never performs in practice as well as the polling suggests.

    He's also turning out to be a piss-poor speaker.

    The Conservatives under Johnson-Cummings have achieved the remarkable feat of publicly ripping themselves apart whilst making Jeremy Corbyn appear statesmanlike and principled.

    It's over. For Johnson.

    I resigned yesterday from the party citing the treatment of Ken Clarke, Rory Stewart and others but also Boris blusterng non answers and general confusion.

    The onslaught Boris came under yesteday is without precedent but I would caution by declaring Boris is over. We have not as yet seen any polling over these recent events but there is a lot of a anecdotal evidence, even with my acquaintances, that the public are furious with the HOC, reject any delay, and just want to leave at the end of October,

    If that is a view across the electorate Boris is far from over

    Remember, we are in a bubble on this forum and it is real non political people who will decide
    His plan will play well with his base.

    No dealers will believe he really wanted no deal but was stopped by parliament.
    Dealers will feel frustrated by another delay and that we took the threat of no deal away too early.
    The hardcore will be delighted by the removal of Grieve and Clarke.

    The flip side is how actively will one nation Tory MPs and officials support and campaign for the election? And for opponents, they will be much happier voting anti Tory, even if that means Corbyn than they have been for some time.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,791

    Byronic, Johnson will never be a man of the people. Farage, despite his private school education, can almost pull it off. Etonian Johnson with William Rees-Mogg by his side? No chance.

    As Mike Smithson regularly reminds those with short memories, Johnson never performs in practice as well as the polling suggests.

    He's also turning out to be a piss-poor speaker.

    The Conservatives under Johnson-Cummings have achieved the remarkable feat of publicly ripping themselves apart whilst making Jeremy Corbyn appear statesmanlike and principled.

    It's over. For Johnson.

    Interesting you are so confident it is all over for Johnson.

    I am in a charitable mood so I am going to give you the opportunity of backing your proclamations with a straight bet on most seats at the next GE (Tory v Labour).

    Any stake you like on Labour and i'll match it on the Tories.
    I already have, with great odds, thanks. I've done it in my usual way, carefully and juggling options that work out well which includes covering myself via LibDem results.

    p.s. I don't tend to lose money betting. We shall see :)

    I'll take that as a no then should I?
    Oh I see. You were being serious. You're touting yourself as a bookie but only offering me a straight Cons v Lab bet?

    Er, I have brilliant odds by juggling some really good bets across national and constituency lines. I very much doubt you have the time or expertise to match the bookies I use. Nor would I trust you to pay up when I win if you did. No offence.
    There's an intermediary here on PB that people often use to handle bets if you are worried about that sort of thing.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 1,123
    "Voters want something done. Boris is doing something. Doing something is better than doing nothing."

    Mr Johnson has been trying very hard to do nothing, as doing nothing brings about no deal. Proroguing Parliament gives him more time to do nothing. A Queens Speech and the following debate is doing nothing in terms of getting Brexit sorted. The house of commons has told Mr Johnson "You have to do something".

  • The onslaught Boris came under yesteday is without precedent but I would caution by declaring Boris is over. We have not as yet seen any polling over these recent events but there is a lot of a anecdotal evidence, even with my acquaintances, that the public are furious with the HOC, reject any delay, and just want to leave at the end of October,

    If that is a view across the electorate Boris is far from over

    Remember, we are in a bubble on this forum and it is real non political people who will decide

    I have been saying this repeatedly.

    PB is in no way reflective of wider society, it is a thoroughly entertaining forum but as a litmus for normal people it is dreadful. There is so much swivel-eyed ranting on here from remainers that it is almost become twitter-lite.

    I am pretty confident there are going to be some utterly distraught remainers/Labour supporters after the GE who cannot fathom how the result was so different to the prevailing 'wisdom' on here.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182
    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    I am going to plant my flag in the HYFUD side of the line. I’m quite surprised that so many here think we’re close to seeing the killing off of a No deal Brexit or Brexit entirely. As far as I can see, it’s closer to happening than ever.

    No Deal and Revocation have both become more probable in the last six weeks.

    The mushy middle had receded, which is good for intellectual purity. And bad for the lives of real, actual human beings.
    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    I am going to plant my flag in the HYFUD side of the line. I’m quite surprised that so many here think we’re close to seeing the killing off of a No deal Brexit or Brexit entirely. As far as I can see, it’s closer to happening than ever.

    No Deal and Revocation have both become more probable in the last six weeks.

    The mushy middle had receded, which is good for intellectual purity. And bad for the lives of real, actual human beings.
    But the gap between the two is far closer than either side would like to admit.

    The mushy middle may plump for whichever option proffers the greater prospect of the most rapid resolution to the whole saga.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,791
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    A letter No. 10 can simply ignore.

    Ah, misread. Thought the EU were going to send a letter asking for a extension request. :p

    If they are taking this attitude, can the UK ever actually leave?
    Yes.

    All the UK has to do to leave is to repeal the 1973 European Communities Act.
    Did the Benn act deal with that? I thought the commencement order on that repeal was recently signed.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,278
    edited September 5
    Cummings devised a cunning plan to get Johnson the election he so desperately wanted. It has failed. The Labour Party will now decide when an election is held. The man claiming he will make the EU blink has been outmanouevered by Jeremy Corbyn. That's quite an achievement.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,780

    DavidL said:

    My better half, who doesn't share my obsession with the details of all this, is exactly where Cyclefree describes. She did not make her mind up to vote leave until the Monday of the week with the vote. She was genuinely unsure and frankly didn't feel strongly about it one way or another but she thinks you should always use your vote.

    Now she is genuinely angry and frustrated at a political class who won't do what they were told and seem to want to drag this out interminably. She is at the point (as I suspect many are) where she is not listening at all to anything any of them are saying, she just wants this done. Many others I have spoken to on both sides of the argument have said something similar. A further extension is a terrible idea, even if in some peoples eyes that still makes it better than the alternatives.

    We need a deal and we need it now. Boris will hopefully come back from the meeting in Brussels in October with a deal critics will say is very like what May had. If Parliament rejects it I honestly fear for the stability of our nation.

    How can Johnson come back with a deal like May's when he has made dropping the backstop a red line and kicked out a load of MPs who voted for May's deal? He is committed to no deal now, whatever he says in public about getting a deal at the last minute, because he is insisting on something that the EU cannot agree to. Your fear for our country is wholly justified.
    I have made suggestions on here before about possible alternatives to the backstop based on regulatory alignment going forward. The DUP seem to be floating another idea which would basically keep NI agriculture in the SM/CU, something GB farmers might find attractive too. I think that the EU will want a deal which keeps the status quo as much as possible and gives them budget certainty but their hopes that we will prove their Hotel California status continue to be raised.

  • Oh I see. You were being serious. You're touting yourself as a bookie but only offering me a straight Cons v Lab bet?

    Er, I have brilliant odds by juggling some really good bets across national and constituency lines. I very much doubt you have the time or expertise to match the bookies I use. Nor would I trust you to pay up when I win if you did. No offence.

    All you needed to say was...

    "I was blustering and talking crap and I know I would lose the bet".
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 7,308

    The Cummings-Johnson duo will not like this. Particularly, the senior partner.
    ..but he's not even an MP.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,387

    Cutting through the noise, I can’t shake the feeling that Brexit is now dead.

    My head says that Brexit is at least 80% likely. My gut says it’s over, that Johnson and Cummings have basically transmuted Brexit into a “No Deal” platform which will never carry Parliament or Country.

    Maybe the battle against Brexit is coming to an end. And the war to defeat Corbyn is about to begin.

    Brexit has certainly failed, as many of us knew from the get go it would do. But failure doesn't mean it won't happen. I think ultimately it will go ahead because it's easier for it to do so.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182
    DavidL said:

    The cacophony of Brexit is not just bad for our politics, it is drowning almost everything else out. So we had Javid yesterday announce billions of pounds of additional spending, the biggest annual increase since the madness of Brown was in full flow, and he barely gets a headline off the financial press.

    This was a massive change in government policy. The ascetic, unimaginative world view of Hammond based on smaller government, lower taxes, squeezing government spending and doing as little as possible has been replaced by something that is much closer to what at least Ed Miliband would have gone for if not the full McDonnell who doesn't want to just turn on the taps but make good every cut in the last decade, apparently all at once.

    I think that there is a good argument to be had if this is good economics given we are still indulging in excessive consumption and insufficient saving driving a dangerous trade deficit. I can see the likes of @another_richard gnashing their teeth in frustration. There may be an argument that this additional spending will be counter cyclical as the world economy slows down and is a sensible way to offset any adverse consequences of the B word but its not one I would make with any great enthusiasm. Do we really need a government borrowing on our behalf when the great British consumer is already up to their ears in debt?

    From a political point of view the gap between the main parties has got a lot smaller. It won't stop the usual attacks on Labour profligacy of course but will they be credible? I fear the disillusioned such as @TSE, @richard_nabavi and @DavidHerdson will once again be wondering where the hell their party has gone.

    I’m certainly not happy about it. Education needs extra resources, but the splurge is very Labour lite and also (dare I say it) populist.

    I use that word because it’s hosing money for electorate effect rather than for what’s right for good Government. I haven’t seen the numbers yet but going on what’s reported that must bring to end any hope of eliminating all of the deficit.

    Where money is really needed is in affordable housing, better grading the transition to Universal Credit, social care, justice and prisons, the foreign office and defence. And that should be slow and steady and dependent upon overall fiscal conservatism and the state of the economy.

    But, I suppose there aren’t many votes in those.
This discussion has been closed.