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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If this poll turns out to be accurate then there’s no way Corb

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited September 5 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If this poll turns out to be accurate then there’s no way Corbyn should agree to an October election

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  • Buffoon
  • The public will know who is responsible for there being a delay due to Corbyn's Surrender Bill and the Remainers in Parliament.

    If it has to be a November vote lets have it for Guy Fawkes Night.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,733
    Not first like REMAIN
  • Buffoon

    Charming.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,733

    The public will know who is responsible for there being a delay due to Corbyn's Surrender Bill and the Remainers in Parliament.

    If it has to be a November vote lets have it for Guy Fawkes Night.

    Would love a November 5th election. :D
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 500
    Boris wouldn't be letting anyone be PM. It would be Parliament choosing Corbyn and they would be responsible. Still don't believe they would do it. It would be Grieve or Clarke.
  • What's to stop Boris from going to Her Majesty in mid-October and say that Ken Clarke is the best to command confidence in the house, while then becoming Leader of the Opposition himself.

    PS what would Corbyn be then?
  • Good thread by Eagles.

    Exactly right - and no amount of goading should make any difference.

    An election, yes. But Bunter cannot be allowed to control the timetable.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,180
    I've just had a tenner on Clarke for next PM.
  • Bbc news off to a good start for the buff.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 50,091
    GIN1138 said:

    Would love a November 5th election. :D

    I watched V for Venetta again recently.

    The parallels with the current state are depressing
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,335
    edited September 5
    A few days ago the consensus from Labour politicians was that the election had to happen before 1st November. Now it's the precise opposite. British politics is certainly moving quickly atm.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 50,091
    AndyJS said:

    A few days ago the consensus from Labour politicians was that the election had to happen before 1st November. Now it's the precise opposite.

    They can read polls too...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,733
    edited September 5
    AndyJS said:

    A few days ago the consensus from Labour politicians was that the election had to happen before 1st November. Now it's the precise opposite.

    I think you'll find the "consensus" from Labour politicians on when we have an election is whenever they get a 10% option poll lead.

    Until then, forget it! :D
  • The public will know who is responsible for there being a delay due to Corbyn's Surrender Bill and the Remainers in Parliament.

    If it has to be a November vote lets have it for Guy Fawkes Night.

    The buck stops with the PM. People who wanted No Deal plainly won't vote for those who blocked it, but nor will they support the man who said he'd succeed in providing it "do or die" and yet is inexplicably alive on All Hallows Day. They'll back Farage or stay at home. That's what this poll says.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,601
    edited September 5
    Questions like that are a bit leading, If *SUCH AND SUCH* happens how would you then vote. Placing too much emphasis on the variable factor. The idea Brexit Party would double its vote to 18% based on the remainer parliament successfully delaying Brexit seems far fetched to me.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 879
    Scott_P said:
    How can you “plot” to “push back” something that hasn’t been arranged?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182
    I believe a few of us have been arguing that laying a GE in October is a steal for some time now.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,640

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, if there's an election on October 15 (or thereabouts), I would expect:

    40% chance of a decent (25+) Conservative majority
    20% chance of a small majority or almost there (320 seats plus)
    25% chance of a Referendum for Remain result (i.e. Lab + LD + SNP + PC + G > 330-ish)

    And a 15% chance of an unstable parliament that is unable to get anything done.

    The right thing, the moral thing, is for us to have an election. And to have it in mid-October.

    I'm with you 100% on the need for an election, but why is the precise date important? If we imagine for a moment that a Parliament that's strongly for leaving the EU is returned, is it going to make that much difference to anything if the leave date is 31 January rather than 31 October?
    If that is what the public wants we shouldn't waste £3bn and businesses stockpiling and planning on an absolutely pointless 3 month extension that achieves nothing.

    What does delaying achieve beyond burning a billion pounds a month and screwing up stockpiling plans?
    To be honest, October 31st was a stupid date, because it never allowed any time for negotiation with the new Commission. The government should have either extended for a month and held an election to break the deadlock, or extended until November 30, when at least there would be time for negotiations.

    But that's all by-the-by.

    Let's put it to the voters. Let's let the people decide what the right answer is. That's democracy. And then no-one can say (as I do now), that no one voted for No Deal. Similarly, if the LDs win the election on a Referendum and Revoke platform, we would have to recognise that.

    But whatever happens, the current situation is unsustainable. An election offers no certainty, but at least an opportunity to break the deadlock.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 295
    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Would love a November 5th election. :D

    I watched V for Venetta again recently.

    The parallels with the current state are depressing
    I suspect it's not coincidental that it hasn't been shown on TV for several years.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 657
    edited September 5
    Mr Eagles - I think you may need to revisit your header. It has a few garbled bits.

    "Corbyn actually becoming Prime Minister will probably reduce the effectiveness of the expected ‘Project Fear’ the Conservatives will run about the country letting Corbyn become Prime Minister when Boris Johnson effectively allowed Corbyn to become Prime Minister."

    Seriously.

    I agree with the overall message though.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,095
    Pity we can't have a vote on whether we'd prefer Johnson dead in a ditch or PM
  • Bbc news off to a good start for the buff.

    Is this a sarcastic post?
  • Bbc news off to a good start for the buff.

    Is this a sarcastic post?
    Take it as read if it refers to the current short term PM
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    Artist said:

    Questions like that are a bit leading, If *SUCH AND SUCH* happens how would you then vote. Placing too much emphasis on the variable factor. The idea Brexit Party would double its vote to 18% based on the remainer parliament successfully delaying Brexit seems far fetched to me.

    They want a "strong leader" to steamroller through Brexit. If November, than manifestly Boris is not a strong leader.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,673
    DougSeal said:

    Scott_P said:
    How can you “plot” to “push back” something that hasn’t been arranged?
    Having an election in November is like threading a needle with the prorogation.
  • Chris_A said:

    I've just had a tenner on Clarke for next PM.

    When I think of that tenner I threw away on David Lidington...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,778
    GIN1138 said:

    The public will know who is responsible for there being a delay due to Corbyn's Surrender Bill and the Remainers in Parliament.

    If it has to be a November vote lets have it for Guy Fawkes Night.

    Would love a November 5th election. :D
    It'll be the 7th surely. No reason not to stick to a Thursday.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    Gabs2 said:

    Boris wouldn't be letting anyone be PM. It would be Parliament choosing Corbyn and they would be responsible. Still don't believe they would do it. It would be Grieve or Clarke.

    Checks betting slip.
    Concludes Phil Hammond is the obvious choice.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, if there's an election on October 15 (or thereabouts), I would expect:

    40% chance of a decent (25+) Conservative majority
    20% chance of a small majority or almost there (320 seats plus)
    25% chance of a Referendum for Remain result (i.e. Lab + LD + SNP + PC + G > 330-ish)

    And a 15% chance of an unstable parliament that is unable to get anything done.

    The right thing, the moral thing, is for us to have an election. And to have it in mid-October.

    I'm with you 100% on the need for an election, but why is the precise date important? If we imagine for a moment that a Parliament that's strongly for leaving the EU is returned, is it going to make that much difference to anything if the leave date is 31 January rather than 31 October?
    If that is what the public wants we shouldn't waste £3bn and businesses stockpiling and planning on an absolutely pointless 3 month extension that achieves nothing.

    What does delaying achieve beyond burning a billion pounds a month and screwing up stockpiling plans?
    To be honest, October 31st was a stupid date, because it never allowed any time for negotiation with the new Commission. The government should have either extended for a month and held an election to break the deadlock, or extended until November 30, when at least there would be time for negotiations.

    But that's all by-the-by.

    Let's put it to the voters. Let's let the people decide what the right answer is. That's democracy. And then no-one can say (as I do now), that no one voted for No Deal. Similarly, if the LDs win the election on a Referendum and Revoke platform, we would have to recognise that.

    But whatever happens, the current situation is unsustainable. An election offers no certainty, but at least an opportunity to break the deadlock.
    I agree with that and 31 January is an equally stupid date. It offers even less time for negotiation, Christmas will eat up much of that time and we will be back to talking about extensions before we've even got far into negotiations.

    If there is to be an extension it should be a considerable length, or there shouldn't be one at all.
  • I believe a few of us have been arguing that laying a GE in October is a steal for some time now.

    Yes that was a good tip and I suspect you extracted maximum value from it. Several days ahead of the curve.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,673
    Anecdote alert: my mum (lifetime Conservative, Leave voter, now probably Remain, detests Boris Johnson) is in despair at politics. “I can never remember such a mess.”
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,292
    edited September 5
    GIN1138 said:

    The public will know who is responsible for there being a delay due to Corbyn's Surrender Bill and the Remainers in Parliament.

    If it has to be a November vote lets have it for Guy Fawkes Night.

    Would love a November 5th election. :D
    How come you keep promoting election dates that are not thursdays? I realise it is possible to have an election on any day. But it seems odd.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,746
    edited September 5

    Bbc news off to a good start for the buff.

    Yes, I am watching it and I read on here that Boris is despised, but he is walking down a high street in the north and people are taking selfies and photos of their children with him. Seems to me like he still has the touch.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, if there's an election on October 15 (or thereabouts), I would expect:

    40% chance of a decent (25+) Conservative majority
    20% chance of a small majority or almost there (320 seats plus)
    25% chance of a Referendum for Remain result (i.e. Lab + LD + SNP + PC + G > 330-ish)

    And a 15% chance of an unstable parliament that is unable to get anything done.

    The right thing, the moral thing, is for us to have an election. And to have it in mid-October.

    I'm with you 100% on the need for an election, but why is the precise date important? If we imagine for a moment that a Parliament that's strongly for leaving the EU is returned, is it going to make that much difference to anything if the leave date is 31 January rather than 31 October?
    If that is what the public wants we shouldn't waste £3bn and businesses stockpiling and planning on an absolutely pointless 3 month extension that achieves nothing.

    What does delaying achieve beyond burning a billion pounds a month and screwing up stockpiling plans?
    To be honest, October 31st was a stupid date, because it never allowed any time for negotiation with the new Commission. The government should have either extended for a month and held an election to break the deadlock, or extended until November 30, when at least there would be time for negotiations.

    But that's all by-the-by.

    Let's put it to the voters. Let's let the people decide what the right answer is. That's democracy. And then no-one can say (as I do now), that no one voted for No Deal. Similarly, if the LDs win the election on a Referendum and Revoke platform, we would have to recognise that.

    But whatever happens, the current situation is unsustainable. An election offers no certainty, but at least an opportunity to break the deadlock.
    I agree with that and 31 January is an equally stupid date. It offers even less time for negotiation, Christmas will eat up much of that time and we will be back to talking about extensions before we've even got far into negotiations.

    If there is to be an extension it should be a considerable length, or there shouldn't be one at all.
    This is exactly what the bill drafters thought. That’s why Boris is obligated to accept a longer extension if offered by the EU.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,626
    dixiedean said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Boris wouldn't be letting anyone be PM. It would be Parliament choosing Corbyn and they would be responsible. Still don't believe they would do it. It would be Grieve or Clarke.

    Checks betting slip.
    Concludes Phil Hammond is the obvious choice.
    He could be leader within days.



    Of the TIGs.
  • Bbc news off to a good start for the buff.

    Yes, I am watching it and I read on here that Boris is despised, but he is walking down a high street in the north and people are taking selfies and photos of their children with him. Seems to me like he still has the touch.
    You must have had the volume off
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489

    Anecdote alert: my mum (lifetime ConservativeLib Dem, Leave voter, now probably Remain, detests Boris Johnson) is in despair at politics. “I can never remember such a mess.”

    Fixed that for you.
  • Bbc news off to a good start for the buff.

    Is this a sarcastic post?
    Take it as read if it refers to the current short term PM
    They led on him being binned off by his own brother. How was that good for him?
  • dixiedean said:

    Artist said:

    Questions like that are a bit leading, If *SUCH AND SUCH* happens how would you then vote. Placing too much emphasis on the variable factor. The idea Brexit Party would double its vote to 18% based on the remainer parliament successfully delaying Brexit seems far fetched to me.

    They want a "strong leader" to steamroller through Brexit. If November, than manifestly Boris is not a strong leader.
    Its not about strong leaders. Its about numbers in Parliament.

    The only way to solve that is an election and Boris is strong enough to face up to that. Corbyn is too afraid he'll lose so is running scared.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489

    dixiedean said:

    Artist said:

    Questions like that are a bit leading, If *SUCH AND SUCH* happens how would you then vote. Placing too much emphasis on the variable factor. The idea Brexit Party would double its vote to 18% based on the remainer parliament successfully delaying Brexit seems far fetched to me.

    They want a "strong leader" to steamroller through Brexit. If November, than manifestly Boris is not a strong leader.
    Its not about strong leaders. Its about numbers in Parliament.

    The only way to solve that is an election and Boris is strong enough to face up to that. Corbyn is too afraid he'll lose so is running scared.
    You keep saying this but it’s not going to make an election come any sooner.
  • FPT
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, if there's an election on October 15 (or thereabouts), I would expect:

    40% chance of a decent (25+) Conservative majority
    20% chance of a small majority or almost there (320 seats plus)
    25% chance of a Referendum for Remain result (i.e. Lab + LD + SNP + PC + G > 330-ish)

    And a 15% chance of an unstable parliament that is unable to get anything done.

    The right thing, the moral thing, is for us to have an election. And to have it in mid-October.

    I'm with you 100% on the need for an election, but why is the precise date important? If we imagine for a moment that a Parliament that's strongly for leaving the EU is returned, is it going to make that much difference to anything if the leave date is 31 January rather than 31 October?
    If that is what the public wants we shouldn't waste £3bn and businesses stockpiling and planning on an absolutely pointless 3 month extension that achieves nothing.

    What does delaying achieve beyond burning a billion pounds a month and screwing up stockpiling plans?
    To be honest, October 31st was a stupid date, because it never allowed any time for negotiation with the new Commission. The government should have either extended for a month and held an election to break the deadlock, or extended until November 30, when at least there would be time for negotiations.

    But that's all by-the-by.

    Let's put it to the voters. Let's let the people decide what the right answer is. That's democracy. And then no-one can say (as I do now), that no one voted for No Deal. Similarly, if the LDs win the election on a Referendum and Revoke platform, we would have to recognise that.

    But whatever happens, the current situation is unsustainable. An election offers no certainty, but at least an opportunity to break the deadlock.
    I sort of agree however I fear a general election campaign will not focus exclusively on Brexit (cf 2017)

    We could also see the possibility of the party winning the most seats and most votes does not take power, or indeed we could see a party committed to a No Deal winning a majority on 30% whereas parties committed to remaining win 65% of the vote.

    Those are bloody messes.

    If you want a clear and unequivocal decision on what to do next we need to have a referendum.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    DougSeal said:

    Scott_P said:
    How can you “plot” to “push back” something that hasn’t been arranged?
    Monday's Daily Mail headlined "Boris names the date. GE October 14th." Thought it was a hostage to fortune then.
  • GIN1138 said:

    The public will know who is responsible for there being a delay due to Corbyn's Surrender Bill and the Remainers in Parliament.

    If it has to be a November vote lets have it for Guy Fawkes Night.

    Would love a November 5th election. :D
    How come you keep promoting election dates that are not thursdays? I realise it is possible to have an election on any day. But it seems odd.
    You can't think of any symbolism for Parliament facing the voters on the 5th of November?
  • Bbc news off to a good start for the buff.

    Is this a sarcastic post?
    Take it as read if it refers to the current short term PM
    They led on him being binned off by his own brother. How was that good for him?
    Exactly.... Buffoon is me being kind
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,778

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, if there's an election on October 15 (or thereabouts), I would expect:

    40% chance of a decent (25+) Conservative majority
    20% chance of a small majority or almost there (320 seats plus)
    25% chance of a Referendum for Remain result (i.e. Lab + LD + SNP + PC + G > 330-ish)

    And a 15% chance of an unstable parliament that is unable to get anything done.

    The right thing, the moral thing, is for us to have an election. And to have it in mid-October.

    I'm with you 100% on the need for an election, but why is the precise date important? If we imagine for a moment that a Parliament that's strongly for leaving the EU is returned, is it going to make that much difference to anything if the leave date is 31 January rather than 31 October?
    If that is what the public wants we shouldn't waste £3bn and businesses stockpiling and planning on an absolutely pointless 3 month extension that achieves nothing.

    What does delaying achieve beyond burning a billion pounds a month and screwing up stockpiling plans?
    To be honest, October 31st was a stupid date, because it never allowed any time for negotiation with the new Commission. The government should have either extended for a month and held an election to break the deadlock, or extended until November 30, when at least there would be time for negotiations.

    But that's all by-the-by.

    Let's put it to the voters. Let's let the people decide what the right answer is. That's democracy. And then no-one can say (as I do now), that no one voted for No Deal. Similarly, if the LDs win the election on a Referendum and Revoke platform, we would have to recognise that.

    But whatever happens, the current situation is unsustainable. An election offers no certainty, but at least an opportunity to break the deadlock.
    I agree with that and 31 January is an equally stupid date. It offers even less time for negotiation, Christmas will eat up much of that time and we will be back to talking about extensions before we've even got far into negotiations.

    If there is to be an extension it should be a considerable length, or there shouldn't be one at all.
    Well, the EU will probably help you out there. I reckon they will offer 30 June or 31 July, and the HoC will accept it. That allows enough time for a GE and a 2nd referendum. :smile:
  • Mr Eagles - I think you may need to revisit your header. It has a few garbled bits.

    "Corbyn actually becoming Prime Minister will probably reduce the effectiveness of the expected ‘Project Fear’ the Conservatives will run about the country letting Corbyn become Prime Minister when Boris Johnson effectively allowed Corbyn to become Prime Minister."

    Seriously.

    I agree with the overall message though.

    Sorry, wrote this thread with several children on my lap.
  • Posted just after I suggested the opposite on the previous thread. Figures ;)

    I don’t think we can read much from polls at this point. All the cards are up in the air, we have no idea where they’ll fall. So much depends on unpredictable factors.

    If I were in Corbyn’s shoes I’d be worried in this wild environment about Black Swans like the Clarke scenario outlined by Philip_Thompson. Fail to take the chance at election when it’s offered, it might just slip away. My preference is still for an October election, just as long as the date can be secured and fixed prior to Oct 31.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,626

    GIN1138 said:

    The public will know who is responsible for there being a delay due to Corbyn's Surrender Bill and the Remainers in Parliament.

    If it has to be a November vote lets have it for Guy Fawkes Night.

    Would love a November 5th election. :D
    How come you keep promoting election dates that are not thursdays? I realise it is possible to have an election on any day. But it seems odd.
    You can't think of any symbolism for Parliament facing the voters on the 5th of November?
    Not sure JRM would approve - not a fun night for the Popish.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,733
    edited September 5
    One other thing I suspect Remainers aren't considering with their delaying gambit is what if it works?

    What if the Brexit Party take off? I mean, really take off? Take seats from Con and Lab and finish up making a Con/BXP coalition viable?

    In a way Remainers are once again playing Russian Roulette with the electorate just like in 2016.

    All these game they're playing could easily blow up in their face just like in 2016, IMO.
  • dixiedean said:

    Artist said:

    Questions like that are a bit leading, If *SUCH AND SUCH* happens how would you then vote. Placing too much emphasis on the variable factor. The idea Brexit Party would double its vote to 18% based on the remainer parliament successfully delaying Brexit seems far fetched to me.

    They want a "strong leader" to steamroller through Brexit. If November, than manifestly Boris is not a strong leader.
    Its not about strong leaders. Its about numbers in Parliament.

    The only way to solve that is an election and Boris is strong enough to face up to that. Corbyn is too afraid he'll lose so is running scared.
    You keep saying this but it’s not going to make an election come any sooner.
    It doesn't need to.

    The longer this drags on the better. Every week Corbyn runs scared of the voters, the more people are going to think this nonsense needs to end.

    And if Parliament does force a THIRD extension after a month of running scared of the voters then Boris going into an election saying there must not be a FOURTH extension will be entirely reasonable.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489

    dixiedean said:

    Artist said:

    Questions like that are a bit leading, If *SUCH AND SUCH* happens how would you then vote. Placing too much emphasis on the variable factor. The idea Brexit Party would double its vote to 18% based on the remainer parliament successfully delaying Brexit seems far fetched to me.

    They want a "strong leader" to steamroller through Brexit. If November, than manifestly Boris is not a strong leader.
    Its not about strong leaders. Its about numbers in Parliament.

    The only way to solve that is an election and Boris is strong enough to face up to that. Corbyn is too afraid he'll lose so is running scared.
    You keep saying this but it’s not going to make an election come any sooner.
    It doesn't need to.

    The longer this drags on the better. Every week Corbyn runs scared of the voters, the more people are going to think this nonsense needs to end.

    And if Parliament does force a THIRD extension after a month of running scared of the voters then Boris going into an election saying there must not be a FOURTH extension will be entirely reasonable.
    ...and?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    Peston on ITV news says senior Tories have said Boris will refuse to agree to extend Article 50 under any circumstances whatsoever even if the extension bill passes and will challenge the Commons to impeach him first
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,074
    Corbyn might act slowly but he bends to his party on this. If they insist on a later election he will do that.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 988
    edited September 5
    BBC vox pops from Crewe very supportive of Boris and leaving the EU. The good folks of Morley seemed so too, except for the one big gob.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489
    HYUFD said:

    Peston on ITV news says senior Tories have said Boris will refuse to agree to extend Article 50 under any circumstances whatsoever even if the extension bill passes and will challenge the Commons to impeach him first

    That means it must be true.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,635

    dixiedean said:

    Artist said:

    Questions like that are a bit leading, If *SUCH AND SUCH* happens how would you then vote. Placing too much emphasis on the variable factor. The idea Brexit Party would double its vote to 18% based on the remainer parliament successfully delaying Brexit seems far fetched to me.

    They want a "strong leader" to steamroller through Brexit. If November, than manifestly Boris is not a strong leader.
    Its not about strong leaders. Its about numbers in Parliament.

    The only way to solve that is an election and Boris is strong enough to face up to that. Corbyn is too afraid he'll lose so is running scared.
    Are you some kind off mechanised computer robot?


  • I'm very sceptical about hypothetical polling even when as in this case it supports my view. Once the Benn Bill is an Act Corbyn should offer Johnson an alternative post 31/10 date for a GE. We need the extra 3 months in almost any event anyway. Johnson needs to own his mess. As soon as Labour offers an alternative date the gap between it and 15/10 becomes a process story and a longer campaign suits an opposition behind in the polls.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,074
    GIN1138 said:

    One other thing I suspect Remainers aren't considering with their delaying gambit is what if it works?

    What if the Brexit Party take off? I mean, really take off? Take seats from Con and Lab and finish up making a Con/BXP coalition viable?

    In a way Remainers are once again playing Russian Roulette with the electorate just like in 2016.

    All these game their playing could easily blow up in their face just like in 2016, IMO.

    For the full fat remainers the risk we no deal later is worth ensuring we don’t leave even with a deal.
  • BBC vox pops from Crewe very supportive of Boris and leaving the EU.

    Subgenre of Labour and Tory remainers unhappy with Corbyn.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387

    Bbc news off to a good start for the buff.

    Yes, I am watching it and I read on here that Boris is despised, but he is walking down a high street in the north and people are taking selfies and photos of their children with him. Seems to me like he still has the touch.
    You must have had the volume off
    I was watching BBC news, virtually all the crowd and passers by were coming up to Boris and urging him to 'get Brexit done' bar a few diehard Remainers
  • tyson said:

    dixiedean said:

    Artist said:

    Questions like that are a bit leading, If *SUCH AND SUCH* happens how would you then vote. Placing too much emphasis on the variable factor. The idea Brexit Party would double its vote to 18% based on the remainer parliament successfully delaying Brexit seems far fetched to me.

    They want a "strong leader" to steamroller through Brexit. If November, than manifestly Boris is not a strong leader.
    Its not about strong leaders. Its about numbers in Parliament.

    The only way to solve that is an election and Boris is strong enough to face up to that. Corbyn is too afraid he'll lose so is running scared.
    Are you some kind off mechanised computer robot?


    No I'm a poster with my own opinion, no different to anyone else.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    Would be ironic were a hypothetical poll to bring Boris' grand strategy tumbling down. Since it was another that played a huge part in him becoming PM.
    What goes around comes around.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,335

    BBC vox pops from Crewe very supportive of Boris and leaving the EU. The good folks of Morley seemed so too, except for the one big gob.

    Labour majority = 48 votes.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489
    HYUFD said:

    Bbc news off to a good start for the buff.

    Yes, I am watching it and I read on here that Boris is despised, but he is walking down a high street in the north and people are taking selfies and photos of their children with him. Seems to me like he still has the touch.
    You must have had the volume off
    I was watching BBC news, virtually all the crowd and passers by were coming up to Boris and urging him to 'get Brexit done' bar a few diehard Remainers
    ;)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,167
    HYUFD said:

    Peston on ITV news says senior Tories have said Boris will refuse to agree to extend Article 50 under any circumstances whatsoever even if the extension bill passes and will challenge the Commons to impeach him first

    The cabinet will begin to fracture if he breaks the law. How can he expect others to obey the law?
  • JRM apologises.
  • AndyJS said:

    BBC vox pops from Crewe very supportive of Boris and leaving the EU. The good folks of Morley seemed so too, except for the one big gob.

    Labour majority = 48 votes.
    Corbyn got away with playing both sides last time, appealing to leavers and remainers.

    Following Jeremy Corbyn's Surrender Bill I don't see how he is going to attract any leavers.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,520
    GIN1138 said:

    One other thing I suspect Remainers aren't considering with their delaying gambit is what if it works?

    What if the Brexit Party take off? I mean, really take off? Take seats from Con and Lab and finish up making a Con/BXP coalition viable?

    In a way Remainers are once again playing Russian Roulette with the electorate just like in 2016.

    All these game their playing could easily blow up in their face just like in 2016, IMO.

    I'm not afraid of the Brexit Party taking off. If Boris Johnson isn't Brexity enough to test it to destruction adequately, let Farage have a go.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,635
    GIN1138 said:

    One other thing I suspect Remainers aren't considering with their delaying gambit is what if it works?

    What if the Brexit Party take off? I mean, really take off? Take seats from Con and Lab and finish up making a Con/BXP coalition viable?

    In a way Remainers are once again playing Russian Roulette with the electorate just like in 2016.

    All these game their playing could easily blow up in their face just like in 2016, IMO.

    Considering we have a Brexit based Govt determined to take us out in Oct how could it get worse?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,791

    JRM apologises.

    For sleeping in the Commons, I assume. :p
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293

    dixiedean said:

    Artist said:

    Questions like that are a bit leading, If *SUCH AND SUCH* happens how would you then vote. Placing too much emphasis on the variable factor. The idea Brexit Party would double its vote to 18% based on the remainer parliament successfully delaying Brexit seems far fetched to me.

    They want a "strong leader" to steamroller through Brexit. If November, than manifestly Boris is not a strong leader.
    Its not about strong leaders. Its about numbers in Parliament.

    The only way to solve that is an election and Boris is strong enough to face up to that. Corbyn is too afraid he'll lose so is running scared.
    For your average Brexit party voter it is. They don't give a toss about Parliament. Hence the "why don't we just leave".
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,335
    HYUFD said:

    Peston on ITV news says senior Tories have said Boris will refuse to agree to extend Article 50 under any circumstances whatsoever even if the extension bill passes and will challenge the Commons to impeach him first

    It doesn't seem to be possible to re-wind ITV1's streaming service, unlike BBC and Sky. Disappointing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Peston on ITV news says senior Tories have said Boris will refuse to agree to extend Article 50 under any circumstances whatsoever even if the extension bill passes and will challenge the Commons to impeach him first

    The cabinet will begin to fracture if he breaks the law. How can he expect others to obey the law?
    How can we expect others to accept the laws of a Parliament that ignores the biggest vote in postwar history until it respects the Leave vote and delivers Brexit? We either have a GE or Boris it seems will stand his ground
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Artist said:

    Questions like that are a bit leading, If *SUCH AND SUCH* happens how would you then vote. Placing too much emphasis on the variable factor. The idea Brexit Party would double its vote to 18% based on the remainer parliament successfully delaying Brexit seems far fetched to me.

    They want a "strong leader" to steamroller through Brexit. If November, than manifestly Boris is not a strong leader.
    Its not about strong leaders. Its about numbers in Parliament.

    The only way to solve that is an election and Boris is strong enough to face up to that. Corbyn is too afraid he'll lose so is running scared.
    For your average Brexit party voter it is. They don't give a toss about Parliament. Hence the "why don't we just leave".
    You think Parliament dragging this out for the next two months in a very high profile manner won't lead to them giving a toss?

    "Brave" as Sir Humphrey might say.
  • eekeek Posts: 5,520

    FPT

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, if there's an election on October 15 (or thereabouts), I would expect:

    40% chance of a decent (25+) Conservative majority
    20% chance of a small majority or almost there (320 seats plus)
    25% chance of a Referendum for Remain result (i.e. Lab + LD + SNP + PC + G > 330-ish)

    And a 15% chance of an unstable parliament that is unable to get anything done.

    The right thing, the moral thing, is for us to have an election. And to have it in mid-October.

    I'm with you 100% on the need for an election, but why is the precise date important? If we imagine for a moment that a Parliament that's strongly for leaving the EU is returned, is it going to make that much difference to anything if the leave date is 31 January rather than 31 October?
    If that is what the public wants we shouldn't waste £3bn and businesses stockpiling and planning on an absolutely pointless 3 month extension that achieves nothing.

    What does delaying achieve beyond burning a billion pounds a month and screwing up stockpiling plans?
    To be honest, October 31st was a stupid date, because it never allowed any time for negotiation with the new Commission. The government should have either extended for a month and held an election to break the deadlock, or extended until November 30, when at least there would be time for negotiations.

    But that's all by-the-by.

    Let's put it to the voters. Let's let the people decide what the right answer is. That's democracy. And then no-one can say (as I do now), that no one voted for No Deal. Similarly, if the LDs win the election on a Referendum and Revoke platform, we would have to recognise that.

    But whatever happens, the current situation is unsustainable. An election offers no certainty, but at least an opportunity to break the deadlock.
    I sort of agree however I fear a general election campaign will not focus exclusively on Brexit (cf 2017)

    We could also see the possibility of the party winning the most seats and most votes does not take power, or indeed we could see a party committed to a No Deal winning a majority on 30% whereas parties committed to remaining win 65% of the vote.

    Those are bloody messes.

    If you want a clear and unequivocal decision on what to do next we need to have a referendum.
    A referendum is the only solution and for that you need Labour..
  • RobD said:

    JRM apologises.

    For sleeping in the Commons, I assume. :p
    For besmirching the good name of Doctor Nicholls.
  • JRM apologises.

    Good. Twat.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    edited September 5

    I'm very sceptical about hypothetical polling even when as in this case it supports my view. Once the Benn Bill is an Act Corbyn should offer Johnson an alternative post 31/10 date for a GE. We need the extra 3 months in almost any event anyway. Johnson needs to own his mess. As soon as Labour offers an alternative date the gap between it and 15/10 becomes a process story and a longer campaign suits an opposition behind in the polls.

    Corbyn needs to own his treachery and betrayal of his promise to deliver Brexit in 2017 so Boris must stand his ground or let Corbyn do the extending and let the Labour Leave seats collapse to the Tories like skittles
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,733

    Anecdote alert: my mum (lifetime Conservative, Leave voter, now probably Remain, detests Boris Johnson) is in despair at politics. “I can never remember such a mess.”

    I think you'd have to go back to 1909/1910 for such a comparable crisis?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,767
    HYUFD said:

    Peston on ITV news says senior Tories have said Boris will refuse to agree to extend Article 50 under any circumstances whatsoever even if the extension bill passes and will challenge the Commons to impeach him first


    If he tries that, the HoC will just pass a law taking the power of extension entirely out of his hands ….. which might suit Johnson of course.

    Resigning might be easier, gets him the election he wants.
  • GIN1138 said:


    What if the Brexit Party take off? I mean, really take off? Take seats from Con and Lab and finish up making a Con/BXP coalition viable?

    This is another concern for me with a post-Oct election. There are a lot of Labour seats where even now people won’t vote Tory no matter what. BXP, though, could be a threat in core vote territory if they really get going.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,520
    HYUFD said:

    Peston on ITV news says senior Tories have said Boris will refuse to agree to extend Article 50 under any circumstances whatsoever even if the extension bill passes and will challenge the Commons to impeach him first

    He can't use this line and simultaneously say that his negotiations have been ruined by Corbyn.
  • HYUFD said:

    Peston on ITV news says senior Tories have said Boris will refuse to agree to extend Article 50 under any circumstances whatsoever even if the extension bill passes and will challenge the Commons to impeach him first

    Impeachment isn't a thing in the UK. He can be VONCed and, as he's not above the law, prosecuted.

    I'd write it off as the drunken ramblings of noted wino and wargamer, Dom Cummings.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,751
    Scott_P said:
    Can’t say I’ve ever particularly rated John Crace as a sketch writer - the late Simon Hoggart was unsurpassable in my eyes - but that piece was withering, almost uncomfortable to read.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,778

    GIN1138 said:


    What if the Brexit Party take off? I mean, really take off? Take seats from Con and Lab and finish up making a Con/BXP coalition viable?

    This is another concern for me with a post-Oct election. There are a lot of Labour seats where even now people won’t vote Tory no matter what. BXP, though, could be a threat in core vote territory if they really get going.
    BXP is more of a threat to the Tories though... as the Euro elections showed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,791

    HYUFD said:

    Peston on ITV news says senior Tories have said Boris will refuse to agree to extend Article 50 under any circumstances whatsoever even if the extension bill passes and will challenge the Commons to impeach him first

    Impeachment isn't a thing in the UK. He can be VONCed and, as he's not above the law, prosecuted.

    I'd write it off as the drunken ramblings of noted wino and wargamer, Dom Cummings.
    Yes, it is. https://www.parliament.uk/site-information/glossary/impeachment/
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,635

    tyson said:

    dixiedean said:

    Artist said:

    Questions like that are a bit leading, If *SUCH AND SUCH* happens how would you then vote. Placing too much emphasis on the variable factor. The idea Brexit Party would double its vote to 18% based on the remainer parliament successfully delaying Brexit seems far fetched to me.

    They want a "strong leader" to steamroller through Brexit. If November, than manifestly Boris is not a strong leader.
    Its not about strong leaders. Its about numbers in Parliament.

    The only way to solve that is an election and Boris is strong enough to face up to that. Corbyn is too afraid he'll lose so is running scared.
    Are you some kind off mechanised computer robot? ]

    No I'm a poster with my own opinion, no different to anyone else.
    Philip...Corbyn accepted the 2016 election without hesitation despite 20% plus opinion poll deficits....

    Obviously his decision now is not based on fear of losing.

    Your analysis and comments are worthy of the Mail or Mirror- and the people who write those comments know they are complete rubbish. What is your excuse for writing such risible nonsense?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387

    HYUFD said:

    Peston on ITV news says senior Tories have said Boris will refuse to agree to extend Article 50 under any circumstances whatsoever even if the extension bill passes and will challenge the Commons to impeach him first

    Impeachment isn't a thing in the UK. He can be VONCed and, as he's not above the law, prosecuted.

    I'd write it off as the drunken ramblings of noted wino and wargamer, Dom Cummings.
    Fair enough, it seems Boris will tell the diehard Remainers in the Commons basically 'come and have a go if you think you're hard enough'
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489
    At least no-one can say that British politics isn’t great fun.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,778
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Peston on ITV news says senior Tories have said Boris will refuse to agree to extend Article 50 under any circumstances whatsoever even if the extension bill passes and will challenge the Commons to impeach him first

    Impeachment isn't a thing in the UK. He can be VONCed and, as he's not above the law, prosecuted.

    I'd write it off as the drunken ramblings of noted wino and wargamer, Dom Cummings.
    Yes, it is. https://www.parliament.uk/site-information/glossary/impeachment/
    The entry you link to ends with "This procedure is considered obsolete."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    Andrew said:

    HYUFD said:

    Peston on ITV news says senior Tories have said Boris will refuse to agree to extend Article 50 under any circumstances whatsoever even if the extension bill passes and will challenge the Commons to impeach him first


    If he tries that, the HoC will just pass a law taking the power of extension entirely out of his hands ….. which might suit Johnson of course.

    Resigning might be easier, gets him the election he wants.
    Possibly but either way Boris avoids extending himself so it is win win for him
  • Mike informed me earlier on today he may be taking a foreign holiday in November.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,733
    tyson said:

    GIN1138 said:

    One other thing I suspect Remainers aren't considering with their delaying gambit is what if it works?

    What if the Brexit Party take off? I mean, really take off? Take seats from Con and Lab and finish up making a Con/BXP coalition viable?

    In a way Remainers are once again playing Russian Roulette with the electorate just like in 2016.

    All these game their playing could easily blow up in their face just like in 2016, IMO.

    Considering we have a Brexit based Govt determined to take us out in Oct how could it get worse?
    Well other than on Brexit there's not much difference from Boris to Cameron.

    Farage in government as DPM (and with a decent springboard further down the line to become PM) on the other hand...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,778

    Scott_P said:
    Can’t say I’ve ever particularly rated John Crace as a sketch writer - the late Simon Hoggart was unsurpassable in my eyes - but that piece was withering, almost uncomfortable to read.
    Crace is excellent - always my first go to in the Grauniad!
This discussion has been closed.