That's quite a good illustration of the problem that tactical anti-Tory voters will have in a GE. The Tory vote was effectively unchanged, but the non-Tory vote split neatly down the middle. If someone wanted to vote against the Conservatives, they could have been forgiven genuine doubt which option was best at the moment - as it turns out, neither, resulting in a big increase in the Tory % margin.
Agreed 100%.
I think the next election could be roughly
Tory 40 Labour 22 Lib Dems 20 BXP 5 SNP 4 Greens, NI and others 9
My prediction:
Tory 35 Lib Dems 27 Labour 19 BXP 10 SNP 4 Greens 1 UKIP 1
I do wonder how many close calls there will be in the upcoming election - whether its LDs or Labour or Tories good results are needed/expected in places that require big big swings in many cases, to offset troubles elsewhere. It could be infuriatingly close with no change in many.
Despite their mutual dislike, Labour and the LibDems will have to have a tacit pact at the election, not to campaign against each other in certain seats. If not, wasted Centre-Left ballots will pile up across the country.
I don’t believe it will happen. Ms. Swinson will sense the weakness and try to exploit it. Her party has a USP which they would be foolish not to exploit.
That's quite a good illustration of the problem that tactical anti-Tory voters will have in a GE. The Tory vote was effectively unchanged, but the non-Tory vote split neatly down the middle. If someone wanted to vote against the Conservatives, they could have been forgiven genuine doubt which option was best at the moment - as it turns out, neither, resulting in a big increase in the Tory % margin.
Agreed 100%.
I think the next election could be roughly
Tory 40 Labour 22 Lib Dems 20 BXP 5 SNP 4 Greens, NI and others 9
My prediction:
Tory 35 Lib Dems 27 Labour 19 BXP 10 SNP 4 Greens 1 UKIP 1
I do wonder how many close calls there will be in the upcoming election - whether its LDs or Labour or Tories good results are needed/expected in places that require big big swings in many cases, to offset troubles elsewhere. It could be infuriatingly close with no change in many.
Despite their mutual dislike, Labour and the LibDems will have to have a tacit pact at the election, not to campaign against each other in certain seats. If not, wasted Centre-Left ballots will pile up across the country.
I don’t believe it will happen. Ms. Swinson will sense the weakness and try to exploit it. Her party has a USP which they would be foolish not to exploit.
In which case Boris could win the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher 1983 if Labour and the LDs split the centre left, anti hard Brexit vote almost equally awhile the Brexit Party vote largely collapses in the Tories favour
That's quite a good illustration of the problem that tactical anti-Tory voters will have in a GE. The Tory vote was effectively unchanged, but the non-Tory vote split neatly down the middle. If someone wanted to vote against the Conservatives, they could have been forgiven genuine doubt which option was best at the moment - as it turns out, neither, resulting in a big increase in the Tory % margin.
Agreed 100%.
I think the next election could be roughly
Tory 40 Labour 22 Lib Dems 20 BXP 5 SNP 4 Greens, NI and others 9
My prediction:
Tory 35 Lib Dems 27 Labour 19 BXP 10 SNP 4 Greens 1 UKIP 1
I do wonder how many close calls there will be in the upcoming election - whether its LDs or Labour or Tories good results are needed/expected in places that require big big swings in many cases, to offset troubles elsewhere. It could be infuriatingly close with no change in many.
Despite their mutual dislike, Labour and the LibDems will have to have a tacit pact at the election, not to campaign against each other in certain seats. If not, wasted Centre-Left ballots will pile up across the country.
I don’t believe it will happen. Ms. Swinson will sense the weakness and try to exploit it. Her party has a USP which they would be foolish not to exploit.
In which case Boris could win the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher 1983 if Labour and the LDs split the centre left, anti hard Brexit vote almost equally awhile the Brexit Party vote largely collapses in the Tories favour
Where will the centre-right anti-Brexit vote go, HYUFD?
I do wonder how many close calls there will be in the upcoming election - whether its LDs or Labour or Tories good results are needed/expected in places that require big big swings in many cases, to offset troubles elsewhere. It could be infuriatingly close with no change in many.
Despite their mutual dislike, Labour and the LibDems will have to have a tacit pact at the election, not to campaign against each other in certain seats. If not, wasted Centre-Left ballots will pile up across the country.
I don’t believe it will happen. Ms. Swinson will sense the weakness and try to exploit it. Her party has a USP which they would be foolish not to exploit.
In which case Boris could win the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher 1983 if Labour and the LDs split the centre left, anti hard Brexit vote almost equally awhile the Brexit Party vote largely collapses in the Tories favour
Where will the centre-right anti-Brexit vote go, HYUFD?
I do wonder how many close calls there will be in the upcoming election - whether its LDs or Labour or Tories good results are needed/expected in places that require big big swings in many cases, to offset troubles elsewhere. It could be infuriatingly close with no change in many.
Despite their mutual dislike, Labour and the LibDems will have to have a tacit pact at the election, not to campaign against each other in certain seats. If not, wasted Centre-Left ballots will pile up across the country.
I don’t believe it will happen. Ms. Swinson will sense the weakness and try to exploit it. Her party has a USP which they would be foolish not to exploit.
In which case Boris could win the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher 1983 if Labour and the LDs split the centre left, anti hard Brexit vote almost equally awhile the Brexit Party vote largely collapses in the Tories favour
There is no Brexit party vote to collapse. They didn't contest 2017. UKIP polled 1.8%. Brexit party will improve on that.
Very strange tweet, given that account is both: - anti-science, and - anti-Corbyn It's almost like it's trying to tar Jeremy Corbyn by association with an extremist with whom they agree. Very confusing.
Corbyn's brother is a well-known climate change denialist and weather forecaster.
Piers Corbyn has a 1st class degree in Physics from Imperial College London and is far brighter than his brother despite his odd opinions
I do wonder how many close calls there will be in the upcoming election - whether its LDs or Labour or Tories good results are needed/expected in places that require big big swings in many cases, to offset troubles elsewhere. It could be infuriatingly close with no change in many.
Despite their mutual dislike, Labour and the LibDems will have to have a tacit pact at the election, not to campaign against each other in certain seats. If not, wasted Centre-Left ballots will pile up across the country.
I don’t believe it will happen. Ms. Swinson will sense the weakness and try to exploit it. Her party has a USP which they would be foolish not to exploit.
In which case Boris could win the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher 1983 if Labour and the LDs split the centre left, anti hard Brexit vote almost equally awhile the Brexit Party vote largely collapses in the Tories favour
There is no Brexit party vote to collapse. They didn't contest 2017. UKIP polled 1.8%. Brexit party will improve on that.
That is probably true, but it doesn't necessarily harm the Tories.
Vale of Clwyd and Gwyr are two seats that the Tories won in 2015 ***because** there was a large UKIP vote.
When those voters went back to Labour in 2017, the Tories lost those 2 seats.
I do wonder how many close calls there will be in the upcoming election - whether its LDs or Labour or Tories good results are needed/expected in places that require big big swings in many cases, to offset troubles elsewhere. It could be infuriatingly close with no change in many.
Despite their mutual dislike, Labour and the LibDems will have to have a tacit pact at the election, not to campaign against each other in certain seats. If not, wasted Centre-Left ballots will pile up across the country.
I don’t believe it will happen. Ms. Swinson will sense the weakness and try to exploit it. Her party has a USP which they would be foolish not to exploit.
In which case Boris could win the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher 1983 if Labour and the LDs split the centre left, anti hard Brexit vote almost equally awhile the Brexit Party vote largely collapses in the Tories favour
There is no Brexit party vote to collapse. They didn't contest 2017. UKIP polled 1.8%. Brexit party will improve on that.
If the Tories got close to the 42% they got in 2017 with Labour and the LDs on 20 to 30% each it would match almost exactly the voteshares in 1983 when Thatcher got a Tory majority of 144
I do wonder how many close calls there will be in the upcoming election - whether its LDs or Labour or Tories good results are needed/expected in places that require big big swings in many cases, to offset troubles elsewhere. It could be infuriatingly close with no change in many.
Despite their mutual dislike, Labour and the LibDems will have to have a tacit pact at the election, not to campaign against each other in certain seats. If not, wasted Centre-Left ballots will pile up across the country.
I don’t believe it will happen. Ms. Swinson will sense the weakness and try to exploit it. Her party has a USP which they would be foolish not to exploit.
In which case Boris could win the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher 1983 if Labour and the LDs split the centre left, anti hard Brexit vote almost equally awhile the Brexit Party vote largely collapses in the Tories favour
Where will the centre-right anti-Brexit vote go, HYUFD?
It will already have gone to the LDs on the whole
On the last YouGov, 16% of current Tory voters think leaving was the wrong decision compared with 23% of people who actually voted Tory in 2017, so there's still a lot more Tory voters for the Lib Dems to squeeze. Expelling moderate MPs won't help...
Very strange tweet, given that account is both: - anti-science, and - anti-Corbyn It's almost like it's trying to tar Jeremy Corbyn by association with an extremist with whom they agree. Very confusing.
Corbyn's brother is a well-known climate change denialist and weather forecaster.
Piers Corbyn has a 1st class degree in Physics from Imperial College London and is far brighter than his brother despite his odd opinions
Having a degree doesn't make you bright. I mean, I take your word for it if you know them both; I have never met either of them. But I do know that Piers is utterly wrong about climate change.
Very strange tweet, given that account is both: - anti-science, and - anti-Corbyn It's almost like it's trying to tar Jeremy Corbyn by association with an extremist with whom they agree. Very confusing.
Corbyn's brother is a well-known climate change denialist and weather forecaster.
Piers Corbyn has a 1st class degree in Physics from Imperial College London and is far brighter than his brother despite his odd opinions
That makes him Brighter Than Boris too (though that's not saying much).
Very strange tweet, given that account is both: - anti-science, and - anti-Corbyn It's almost like it's trying to tar Jeremy Corbyn by association with an extremist with whom they agree. Very confusing.
Corbyn's brother is a well-known climate change denialist and weather forecaster.
Piers Corbyn has a 1st class degree in Physics from Imperial College London and is far brighter than his brother despite his odd opinions
That makes him Brighter Than Boris too (though that's not saying much).
Boris has an upper second Classics degree from Oxford and is hardly stupid
Very strange tweet, given that account is both: - anti-science, and - anti-Corbyn It's almost like it's trying to tar Jeremy Corbyn by association with an extremist with whom they agree. Very confusing.
Corbyn's brother is a well-known climate change denialist and weather forecaster.
Piers Corbyn has a 1st class degree in Physics from Imperial College London and is far brighter than his brother despite his odd opinions
I have just looked up his interesting paper on how to measure the apogee and perigee of the Earth's orbit with a vertical post, a spirit level and a photographic plate.
Piers sounds wonderful -- he would be a magnificent ornament to our House of Commons.
I do wonder how many close calls there will be in the upcoming election - whether its LDs or Labour or Tories good results are needed/expected in places that require big big swings in many cases, to offset troubles elsewhere. It could be infuriatingly close with no change in many.
Despite their mutual dislike, Labour and the LibDems will have to have a tacit pact at the election, not to campaign against each other in certain seats. If not, wasted Centre-Left ballots will pile up across the country.
I don’t believe it will happen. Ms. Swinson will sense the weakness and try to exploit it. Her party has a USP which they would be foolish not to exploit.
In which case Boris could win the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher 1983 if Labour and the LDs split the centre left, anti hard Brexit vote almost equally awhile the Brexit Party vote largely collapses in the Tories favour
Where will the centre-right anti-Brexit vote go, HYUFD?
It will already have gone to the LDs on the whole
On the last YouGov, 16% of current Tory voters think leaving was the wrong decision compared with 23% of people who actually voted Tory in 2017, so there's still a lot more Tory voters for the Lib Dems to squeeze. Expelling moderate MPs won't help...
Given the same poll had the Brexit Party on 11% and the Tories on 35% even losing 4% from their vote as that 16% would equate too could easily be made up and more by further Tory gains from the Brexit Party and Labour Leave voters
Blowing the fanboi trumpet for the intellectual prowess of Piers Corbyn and BJ in quick succession isn't quite up there with a passionate defence of Hitler's strategic genius, but still not bad.
Blowing the fanboi trumpet for the intellectual prowess of Piers Corbyn and BJ in quick succession isn't quite up there with a passionate defence of Hitler's strategic genius, but still not bad.
Hes a totally useless weather forecaster, hes forever predicting extremes that do not transpire. Metoffice he ain't
Very strange tweet, given that account is both: - anti-science, and - anti-Corbyn It's almost like it's trying to tar Jeremy Corbyn by association with an extremist with whom they agree. Very confusing.
Corbyn's brother is a well-known climate change denialist and weather forecaster.
Piers Corbyn has a 1st class degree in Physics from Imperial College London and is far brighter than his brother despite his odd opinions
I understand there are bigger issues with Piers Corbyn, along the lines of some kind of breakdown. He was at one time very bright, but his eccentricities nowadays are largely left alone by the media, which I think is a kindness.
Very strange tweet, given that account is both: - anti-science, and - anti-Corbyn It's almost like it's trying to tar Jeremy Corbyn by association with an extremist with whom they agree. Very confusing.
Corbyn's brother is a well-known climate change denialist and weather forecaster.
Piers Corbyn has a 1st class degree in Physics from Imperial College London and is far brighter than his brother despite his odd opinions
That makes him Brighter Than Boris too (though that's not saying much).
Boris has an upper second Classics degree from Oxford and is hardly stupid
Tell me - have you known a lot of people with second-class Oxbridge degrees?
Blowing the fanboi trumpet for the intellectual prowess of Piers Corbyn and BJ in quick succession isn't quite up there with a passionate defence of Hitler's strategic genius, but still not bad.
Hes a totally useless weather forecaster, hes forever predicting extremes that do not transpire. Metoffice he ain't
Not unlike some hotheads on here who seem to think that having a People's Vote will result in Lincolnshire declaring war on Oxfordshire or something like that.
Emma Dent Coad getting booted out in Kensington will be enjoyable
She is absolutely frightful.
Here's hoping for a 1997 style night of people being ousted all over the shop, but this time from all parties.
It has the potential to be explosively hilarious
I demand to be entertained.
I would particularly enjoy a Bob Marshall Andrews type meltdown then a cheeky 'I'm Lazarus!' Comeback like 2005
I've already mentally cast Rory Stewart as Martin Bell.
So much scope for people to go out in a blaze of glory.
Who's going to be David Mellor losing his shit with Jimmy Goldsmith?!
Up Your Hacienda etc etc
Depends where Farage stands.
Goldsmith giving it the 'out out out!' Was a highlight of that night, such a delicious wind up effort
Goldsmith died 2 months later but went out with a bang, I worked on the Referendum Party campaign in my school mock election in 1997 so remember it well
Blowing the fanboi trumpet for the intellectual prowess of Piers Corbyn and BJ in quick succession isn't quite up there with a passionate defence of Hitler's strategic genius, but still not bad.
Hes a totally useless weather forecaster, hes forever predicting extremes that do not transpire. Metoffice he ain't
Not unlike some hotheads on here who seem to think that having a People's Vote will result in Lincolnshire declaring war on Oxfordshire or something like that.
Lincolnshire, as anyone who recalls my infrequent Norfolk Nationalist phases knows will be a buffer colony/food producing region of the restored Wuffingas kingdom of East Anglia. Oxfordshire is too far away to be of any concern
Emma Dent Coad getting booted out in Kensington will be enjoyable
She is absolutely frightful.
Here's hoping for a 1997 style night of people being ousted all over the shop, but this time from all parties.
It has the potential to be explosively hilarious
I demand to be entertained.
I would particularly enjoy a Bob Marshall Andrews type meltdown then a cheeky 'I'm Lazarus!' Comeback like 2005
I've already mentally cast Rory Stewart as Martin Bell.
So much scope for people to go out in a blaze of glory.
Who's going to be David Mellor losing his shit with Jimmy Goldsmith?!
Up Your Hacienda etc etc
Depends where Farage stands.
Goldsmith giving it the 'out out out!' Was a highlight of that night, such a delicious wind up effort
Goldsmith died 2 months later but went out with a bang, I worked on the Referendum Party campaign in my school mock election in 1997 so remember it well
So he did, he was ill when he contested the seat. What a way to go.
I was about to go to bed when Mellor got ousted, then it was so entertaining that I was up til sunrise.
Emma Dent Coad getting booted out in Kensington will be enjoyable
She is absolutely frightful.
Here's hoping for a 1997 style night of people being ousted all over the shop, but this time from all parties.
It has the potential to be explosively hilarious
I demand to be entertained.
I would particularly enjoy a Bob Marshall Andrews type meltdown then a cheeky 'I'm Lazarus!' Comeback like 2005
I've already mentally cast Rory Stewart as Martin Bell.
So much scope for people to go out in a blaze of glory.
Who's going to be David Mellor losing his shit with Jimmy Goldsmith?!
Up Your Hacienda etc etc
Depends where Farage stands.
Goldsmith giving it the 'out out out!' Was a highlight of that night, such a delicious wind up effort
Goldsmith died 2 months later but went out with a bang, I worked on the Referendum Party campaign in my school mock election in 1997 so remember it well
He spent a fortune losing 600 odd deposits. Still, he will be up there enjoying Zaks adventures
Emma Dent Coad getting booted out in Kensington will be enjoyable
She is absolutely frightful.
Here's hoping for a 1997 style night of people being ousted all over the shop, but this time from all parties.
It has the potential to be explosively hilarious
I demand to be entertained.
I would particularly enjoy a Bob Marshall Andrews type meltdown then a cheeky 'I'm Lazarus!' Comeback like 2005
I've already mentally cast Rory Stewart as Martin Bell.
So much scope for people to go out in a blaze of glory.
Who's going to be David Mellor losing his shit with Jimmy Goldsmith?!
Up Your Hacienda etc etc
Depends where Farage stands.
Goldsmith giving it the 'out out out!' Was a highlight of that night, such a delicious wind up effort
Goldsmith died 2 months later but went out with a bang, I worked on the Referendum Party campaign in my school mock election in 1997 so remember it well
You should throw that fact back at @TOPPING the next time he accuses you of being a diehard Remainer. You've clearly always been a true Brexiteer.
Emma Dent Coad getting booted out in Kensington will be enjoyable
She is absolutely frightful.
Here's hoping for a 1997 style night of people being ousted all over the shop, but this time from all parties.
It has the potential to be explosively hilarious
I demand to be entertained.
I would particularly enjoy a Bob Marshall Andrews type meltdown then a cheeky 'I'm Lazarus!' Comeback like 2005
I've already mentally cast Rory Stewart as Martin Bell.
So much scope for people to go out in a blaze of glory.
Who's going to be David Mellor losing his shit with Jimmy Goldsmith?!
Up Your Hacienda etc etc
Depends where Farage stands.
Goldsmith giving it the 'out out out!' Was a highlight of that night, such a delicious wind up effort
Goldsmith died 2 months later but went out with a bang, I worked on the Referendum Party campaign in my school mock election in 1997 so remember it well
He spent a fortune losing 600 odd deposits. Still, he will be up there enjoying Zaks adventures
From his Wikipedia:
He received his formal education at Millfield, and Eton College, which he left early in 1949 at the age of 16, after winning a horse racing bet of £10 on a three-horsed accumulator Lewes, winning £8,000 (equivalent to about £262,000 in March 2017).
Emma Dent Coad getting booted out in Kensington will be enjoyable
She is absolutely frightful.
Here's hoping for a 1997 style night of people being ousted all over the shop, but this time from all parties.
It has the potential to be explosively hilarious
I demand to be entertained.
I would particularly enjoy a Bob Marshall Andrews type meltdown then a cheeky 'I'm Lazarus!' Comeback like 2005
I've already mentally cast Rory Stewart as Martin Bell.
So much scope for people to go out in a blaze of glory.
Who's going to be David Mellor losing his shit with Jimmy Goldsmith?!
Up Your Hacienda etc etc
Depends where Farage stands.
Goldsmith giving it the 'out out out!' Was a highlight of that night, such a delicious wind up effort
Goldsmith died 2 months later but went out with a bang, I worked on the Referendum Party campaign in my school mock election in 1997 so remember it well
So he did, he was ill when he contested the seat. What a way to go.
I was about to go to bed when Mellor got ousted, then it was so entertaining that I was up til sunrise.
I watched at a friends with 6 hardcore Blair fans, the biggest cheer of the night was the Tories first hold out of pity, labour already had about 50 on the board!
I watched 2001 alone and by 6 was thinking well what was the point of that
Emma Dent Coad getting booted out in Kensington will be enjoyable
She is absolutely frightful.
Here's hoping for a 1997 style night of people being ousted all over the shop, but this time from all parties.
It has the potential to be explosively hilarious
I demand to be entertained.
I would particularly enjoy a Bob Marshall Andrews type meltdown then a cheeky 'I'm Lazarus!' Comeback like 2005
I've already mentally cast Rory Stewart as Martin Bell.
So much scope for people to go out in a blaze of glory.
Who's going to be David Mellor losing his shit with Jimmy Goldsmith?!
Up Your Hacienda etc etc
Depends where Farage stands.
Goldsmith giving it the 'out out out!' Was a highlight of that night, such a delicious wind up effort
Goldsmith died 2 months later but went out with a bang, I worked on the Referendum Party campaign in my school mock election in 1997 so remember it well
He spent a fortune losing 600 odd deposits. Still, he will be up there enjoying Zaks adventures
From his Wikipedia:
He received his formal education at Millfield, and Eton College, which he left early in 1949 at the age of 16, after winning a horse racing bet of £10 on a three-horsed accumulator Lewes, winning £8,000 (equivalent to about £262,000 in March 2017).
Absolutely superb.
That £10 is £330 in today's money. Who has £330 to gamble on an 800/1 shot?
Emma Dent Coad getting booted out in Kensington will be enjoyable
She is absolutely frightful.
Here's hoping for a 1997 style night of people being ousted all over the shop, but this time from all parties.
It has the potential to be explosively hilarious
I demand to be entertained.
I would particularly enjoy a Bob Marshall Andrews type meltdown then a cheeky 'I'm Lazarus!' Comeback like 2005
I've already mentally cast Rory Stewart as Martin Bell.
So much scope for people to go out in a blaze of glory.
Who's going to be David Mellor losing his shit with Jimmy Goldsmith?!
Up Your Hacienda etc etc
Depends where Farage stands.
Goldsmith giving it the 'out out out!' Was a highlight of that night, such a delicious wind up effort
Goldsmith died 2 months later but went out with a bang, I worked on the Referendum Party campaign in my school mock election in 1997 so remember it well
He spent a fortune losing 600 odd deposits. Still, he will be up there enjoying Zaks adventures
From his Wikipedia:
He received his formal education at Millfield, and Eton College, which he left early in 1949 at the age of 16, after winning a horse racing bet of £10 on a three-horsed accumulator Lewes, winning £8,000 (equivalent to about £262,000 in March 2017).
Absolutely superb.
That £10 is £330 in today's money. Who has £330 to gamble on an 800/1 shot?
Emma Dent Coad getting booted out in Kensington will be enjoyable
She is absolutely frightful.
Here's hoping for a 1997 style night of people being ousted all over the shop, but this time from all parties.
It has the potential to be explosively hilarious
I demand to be entertained.
I would particularly enjoy a Bob Marshall Andrews type meltdown then a cheeky 'I'm Lazarus!' Comeback like 2005
I've already mentally cast Rory Stewart as Martin Bell.
So much scope for people to go out in a blaze of glory.
Who's going to be David Mellor losing his shit with Jimmy Goldsmith?!
Up Your Hacienda etc etc
Depends where Farage stands.
Goldsmith giving it the 'out out out!' Was a highlight of that night, such a delicious wind up effort
Goldsmith died 2 months later but went out with a bang, I worked on the Referendum Party campaign in my school mock election in 1997 so remember it well
He spent a fortune losing 600 odd deposits. Still, he will be up there enjoying Zaks adventures
From his Wikipedia:
He received his formal education at Millfield, and Eton College, which he left early in 1949 at the age of 16, after winning a horse racing bet of £10 on a three-horsed accumulator Lewes, winning £8,000 (equivalent to about £262,000 in March 2017).
Absolutely superb.
That £10 is £330 in today's money. Who has £330 to gamble on an 800/1 shot?
Emma Dent Coad getting booted out in Kensington will be enjoyable
She is absolutely frightful.
Here's hoping for a 1997 style night of people being ousted all over the shop, but this time from all parties.
It has the potential to be explosively hilarious
I demand to be entertained.
I would particularly enjoy a Bob Marshall Andrews type meltdown then a cheeky 'I'm Lazarus!' Comeback like 2005
I've already mentally cast Rory Stewart as Martin Bell.
So much scope for people to go out in a blaze of glory.
Who's going to be David Mellor losing his shit with Jimmy Goldsmith?!
Up Your Hacienda etc etc
Depends where Farage stands.
Goldsmith giving it the 'out out out!' Was a highlight of that night, such a delicious wind up effort
Goldsmith died 2 months later but went out with a bang, I worked on the Referendum Party campaign in my school mock election in 1997 so remember it well
He spent a fortune losing 600 odd deposits. Still, he will be up there enjoying Zaks adventures
From his Wikipedia:
He received his formal education at Millfield, and Eton College, which he left early in 1949 at the age of 16, after winning a horse racing bet of £10 on a three-horsed accumulator Lewes, winning £8,000 (equivalent to about £262,000 in March 2017).
Absolutely superb.
That £10 is £330 in today's money. Who has £330 to gamble on an 800/1 shot?
Jimmy goldsmith
Not any more
The Queen Mother used to like the odd 10p accumulator
I feel like a bold and non sequitur prediction. Scotland Labour will be wiped out, although Murray might scrape home Lib dems will hold their 4 and gain fife NE Tories will scrape together 5 holds - 2 border seats and 3 in the NE, ab west, banff and Angus I think Leaving the SNP on 47 or 48 Dumfries and Galloway will be a close fight and if there are to be any surprises look to Perth and NP or Argyll and Bute
Emma Dent Coad getting booted out in Kensington will be enjoyable
She is absolutely frightful.
Here's hoping for a 1997 style night of people being ousted all over the shop, but this time from all parties.
It has the potential to be explosively hilarious
I demand to be entertained.
I would particularly enjoy a Bob Marshall Andrews type meltdown then a cheeky 'I'm Lazarus!' Comeback like 2005
I've already mentally cast Rory Stewart as Martin Bell.
So much scope for people to go out in a blaze of glory.
Who's going to be David Mellor losing his shit with Jimmy Goldsmith?!
Up Your Hacienda etc etc
Depends where Farage stands.
Goldsmith giving it the 'out out out!' Was a highlight of that night, such a delicious wind up effort
Goldsmith died 2 months later but went out with a bang, I worked on the Referendum Party campaign in my school mock election in 1997 so remember it well
He spent a fortune losing 600 odd deposits. Still, he will be up there enjoying Zaks adventures
From his Wikipedia:
He received his formal education at Millfield, and Eton College, which he left early in 1949 at the age of 16, after winning a horse racing bet of £10 on a three-horsed accumulator Lewes, winning £8,000 (equivalent to about £262,000 in March 2017).
Absolutely superb.
That £10 is £330 in today's money. Who has £330 to gamble on an 800/1 shot?
Who has £330 to gamble on an 800-1 shot while still at school?
But on Thursday evening, the MP for North East Somerset, apologised to Dr Nicholl for his comments in the Commons.
In a statement he said he had "the utmost respect for all of the country's hardworking medical professionals and the work they do in caring for the people of this country."
He added that the government was "working closely with the NHS, industry and distributors to help ensure the supply of medicine and medical products remains uninterrupted" by the UK's withdrawal from the EU.
Emma Dent Coad getting booted out in Kensington will be enjoyable
She is absolutely frightful.
Here's hoping for a 1997 style night of people being ousted all over the shop, but this time from all parties.
It has the potential to be explosively hilarious
I demand to be entertained.
I would particularly enjoy a Bob Marshall Andrews type meltdown then a cheeky 'I'm Lazarus!' Comeback like 2005
I've already mentally cast Rory Stewart as Martin Bell.
So much scope for people to go out in a blaze of glory.
Who's going to be David Mellor losing his shit with Jimmy Goldsmith?!
Up Your Hacienda etc etc
Depends where Farage stands.
Goldsmith giving it the 'out out out!' Was a highlight of that night, such a delicious wind up effort
Goldsmith died 2 months later but went out with a bang, I worked on the Referendum Party campaign in my school mock election in 1997 so remember it well
He spent a fortune losing 600 odd deposits. Still, he will be up there enjoying Zaks adventures
From his Wikipedia:
He received his formal education at Millfield, and Eton College, which he left early in 1949 at the age of 16, after winning a horse racing bet of £10 on a three-horsed accumulator Lewes, winning £8,000 (equivalent to about £262,000 in March 2017).
Absolutely superb.
That £10 is £330 in today's money. Who has £330 to gamble on an 800/1 shot?
Who has £330 to gamble on an 800-1 shot while still at school?
But on Thursday evening, the MP for North East Somerset, apologised to Dr Nicholl for his comments in the Commons.
In a statement he said he had "the utmost respect for all of the country's hardworking medical professionals and the work they do in caring for the people of this country."
He added that the government was "working closely with the NHS, industry and distributors to help ensure the supply of medicine and medical products remains uninterrupted" by the UK's withdrawal from the EU.
Brave Sir Jacob.
Another one not up to the job. Andrea never got into messes like this....
Emma Dent Coad getting booted out in Kensington will be enjoyable
She is absolutely frightful.
Here's hoping for a 1997 style night of people being ousted all over the shop, but this time from all parties.
It has the potential to be explosively hilarious
I demand to be entertained.
I would particularly enjoy a Bob Marshall Andrews type meltdown then a cheeky 'I'm Lazarus!' Comeback like 2005
I've already mentally cast Rory Stewart as Martin Bell.
So much scope for people to go out in a blaze of glory.
Who's going to be David Mellor losing his shit with Jimmy Goldsmith?!
Up Your Hacienda etc etc
Depends where Farage stands.
Goldsmith giving it the 'out out out!' Was a highlight of that night, such a delicious wind up effort
Goldsmith died 2 months later but went out with a bang, I worked on the Referendum Party campaign in my school mock election in 1997 so remember it well
You should throw that fact back at @TOPPING the next time he accuses you of being a diehard Remainer. You've clearly always been a true Brexiteer.
This is correct and a fun debating point but it's also a completely sensible policy. Once you're letting the voters set the policy direction with a referendum, you're sometimes going to be recommending not to do what you're implementing on their behalf.
Cameron was in pretty much the same situation: He said he'd negotiate a deal, then if it wasn't good enough, recommend rejecting it and leaving the EU instead. Admittedly he was lying when he pretended to plan to do that, but it the line didn't seem to do him any harm in the campaign.
This is correct and a fun debating point but it's also a completely sensible policy. Once you're letting the voters set the policy direction with a referendum, you're sometimes going to be recommending not to do what you're implementing on their behalf.
Cameron was in pretty much the same situation: He said he'd negotiate a deal, then if it wasn't good enough, recommend rejecting it and leaving the EU instead. Admittedly he was lying when he pretended to plan to do that, but it the line didn't seem to do him any harm in the campaign.
The difference is Cameron said he would do it and no one believed he would. Labour are actually planning to do it.
The difference is Cameron said he would do it and no one believed he would. Labour are actually planning to do it.
I disagree, you and me knew he was lying but Joe Brexitty Public didn't, that's why Dave put up the pretence. Even some posters here believed it, IIRC.
This is correct and a fun debating point but it's also a completely sensible policy. Once you're letting the voters set the policy direction with a referendum, you're sometimes going to be recommending not to do what you're implementing on their behalf.
Cameron was in pretty much the same situation: He said he'd negotiate a deal, then if it wasn't good enough, recommend rejecting it and leaving the EU instead. Admittedly he was lying when he pretended to plan to do that, but it the line didn't seem to do him any harm in the campaign.
Yes, it's a bit daft but not quite as daft as it sounds.
It could also have been presented better. Start by making it clear that the Party supports Remain, but out of deference to those who want to Leave it will try to negotiate a better Deal than the one currently on offer.
That's not unreasonable but where it really falls down is that it then has to say what Deal it would seek and what chance it has of succeeding. It then becomes clear the Deal being sought would either not be offered by the EU, and even if it were it wouldn't be very popular with the voters here. So what's the point?
Of course we all know the real point is that it is the best Labour can do to get itself out of a tangle. It cannot now go full on Remain without appearing weak and inconsistent, and it would in any case be too late to get much traction for a policy which the LDs have owned consistently and for which they now seem to be reaping some reward.
The difference is Cameron said he would do it and no one believed he would. Labour are actually planning to do it.
I disagree, you and me knew he was lying but Joe Brexitty Public didn't, that's why Dave put up the pretence. Even some posters here believed it, IIRC.
A lot of them did, actually, more than thought he would campaign for Leave in such a scenario.
I know Wainbody quite well as my Dad lives in the next ward.
It may be in the city of Coventry but it is not natural Labour territory. It is very leafy and has more in common with places like Solihull than (city of) Coventry.
Not many students live in the ward either so I wouldn’t use it to gauge the results of student towns.
I know Wainbody quite well as my Dad lives in the next ward.
It may be in the city of Coventry but it is not natural Labour territory. It is very leafy and has more in common with places like Solihull than (city of) Coventry.
Not many students live in the ward either so I wouldn’t use it to gauge the results of student towns.
Sounds like the sort of place where LDs might make progress if the Government was making a laughing stock of itself and the opposition was considered unacceptable.
This is correct and a fun debating point but it's also a completely sensible policy. Once you're letting the voters set the policy direction with a referendum, you're sometimes going to be recommending not to do what you're implementing on their behalf.
Cameron was in pretty much the same situation: He said he'd negotiate a deal, then if it wasn't good enough, recommend rejecting it and leaving the EU instead. Admittedly he was lying when he pretended to plan to do that, but it the line didn't seem to do him any harm in the campaign.
It's a sensible policy only if you are utterly skewered between two groups of voters: the middle class professional/intellectual Remainers whose views are akin to the bulk of your MPs -and the embarrassingly thick but up-until-now loyal Labour-voting Leavers those MPs and their Remain-voting core despise.
Add in an unhealthy dollop of anti-semitism to the mix, and a chunk of the professional/intellectual vote is feeling queasy about sticking with Labour, especially when there's "that nice lady Swinton? Swinson? Which one is the insurance company?" to maybe vote for. She isn't conflicted by her voter base or respecting democracy from saying what she really wants to do. Can Brexit.
And as Corbyn squirms on the fence, now not wanting an election that has been his go-to sound-bite for two years, that noise you hear is Labour's anal fissures, tearing a bit more every day....
Labour's electoral demise will be when the rump of loyal Labour Leavers, realising they are mocked behind their backs by Labour MPs, ask themselves "What has Labour actually ever done for me?" And realise it is actually bugger all. As they have realised in Scotland - and are realising in Wales.
Nothing illustrates this better than the removal of the whip from the 21 Tories who backed the effort to block a no-deal Brexit. In a different Tory party, these 21 could plausibly have filled most cabinet seats. It is not just the loss of talent that is destructive. It is also the contrast with the actual cabinet of overpromoted fanatics, snobs and halfwits that Johnson has assembled. The real message of this week’s purge is that the liberal, middling, pragmatic Tory party with which Johnson once identified is now regarded as dispensable. Such is the pressure of the Brexit deadline and the Brexit party, that nothing can be allowed to stand in the way of the project to remodel the Tories and win an election from the English nationalist right against divided opposition.
Nothing illustrates this better than the removal of the whip from the 21 Tories who backed the effort to block a no-deal Brexit. In a different Tory party, these 21 could plausibly have filled most cabinet seats. It is not just the loss of talent that is destructive. It is also the contrast with the actual cabinet of overpromoted fanatics, snobs and halfwits that Johnson has assembled. The real message of this week’s purge is that the liberal, middling, pragmatic Tory party with which Johnson once identified is now regarded as dispensable. Such is the pressure of the Brexit deadline and the Brexit party, that nothing can be allowed to stand in the way of the project to remodel the Tories and win an election from the English nationalist right against divided opposition.
That makes my point for me, 35% believed him, nearly as many as disbelieved this obvious lie, and some of the pro-brexit don't-knows probably gave him the benefit of the doubt too.
That makes my point for me, 35% believed him, nearly as many as disbelieved this obvious lie, and some of the pro-brexit don't-knows probably gave him the benefit of the doubt too.
Wasn't your point that most of the masses thought he was telling the truth? A bit more finely balanced than that.
This is correct and a fun debating point but it's also a completely sensible policy. Once you're letting the voters set the policy direction with a referendum, you're sometimes going to be recommending not to do what you're implementing on their behalf. .
The QT audience met it with derision. You can hardly campaign on “You can’t trust Johnson” when speaking with forked tongue yourself. To Labour Leavers it will be transparent that whatever not so magic grandpa says the party hierarchy and MPs are for Remain.
This is correct and a fun debating point but it's also a completely sensible policy. Once you're letting the voters set the policy direction with a referendum, you're sometimes going to be recommending not to do what you're implementing on their behalf. .
The QT audience met it with derision. You can hardly campaign on “You can’t trust Johnson” when speaking with forked tongue yourself. To Labour Leavers it will be transparent that whatever not so magic grandpa says the party hierarchy and MPs are for Remain.
This is correct and a fun debating point but it's also a completely sensible policy. Once you're letting the voters set the policy direction with a referendum, you're sometimes going to be recommending not to do what you're implementing on their behalf. .
The QT audience met it with derision. You can hardly campaign on “You can’t trust Johnson” when speaking with forked tongue yourself. To Labour Leavers it will be transparent that whatever not so magic grandpa says the party hierarchy and MPs are for Remain.
Yes, it's an indictment of the confusion in the Party over many years. It could only be fudged for so long.
That makes my point for me, 35% believed him, nearly as many as disbelieved this obvious lie, and some of the pro-brexit don't-knows probably gave him the benefit of the doubt too.
Wasn't your point that most of the masses thought he was telling the truth? A bit more finely balanced than that.
I am sure that if they could re-run it, Cameron and Juncker would both play it differently.
Cameron should have been firmer with his Eurosceptic wing and Juncker should have been more sensitive to his difficulty and given him a bit more wiggle room.
This is correct and a fun debating point but it's also a completely sensible policy. Once you're letting the voters set the policy direction with a referendum, you're sometimes going to be recommending not to do what you're implementing on their behalf. .
The QT audience met it with derision. You can hardly campaign on “You can’t trust Johnson” when speaking with forked tongue yourself. To Labour Leavers it will be transparent that whatever not so magic grandpa says the party hierarchy and MPs are for Remain.
Except the MPs in the Labour Leave seats.
How visible are they? Any of them in the Shad Cab?
What is the last possible moment to go decide on a GE for 15th Oct? surely if a decision is not made by say Tue next week there is not enough time to make an election happen? I am thinking in terms of postal votes, the registration burden of new voters etc and overseas voters (embassy staff, military personnel, expats etc)
Holy feck, you'd better delete that post before BigG sees it. Rejoicing in the death of a politician in these febrile times.
He was a murderous monster who lived a lot longer than hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of his countrymen. The tragedy is he died in his bed, not in prison.
Holy feck, you'd better delete that post before BigG sees it. Rejoicing in the death of a politician in these febrile times.
He was a murderous monster who lived a lot longer than hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of his countrymen. The tragedy is he died in his bed, not in prison.
I couldn't agree more. BigG is the one who has decreed that we should not mention the D word.
Holy feck, you'd better delete that post before BigG sees it. Rejoicing in the death of a politician in these febrile times.
He was a murderous monster who lived a lot longer than hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of his countrymen. The tragedy is he died in his bed, not in prison.
Indeed. Like so many, someone who seemed at one time to be a Good Idea, but once he achieved power, turned out to be a monster.
Holy feck, you'd better delete that post before BigG sees it. Rejoicing in the death of a politician in these febrile times.
He was a murderous monster who lived a lot longer than hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of his countrymen. The tragedy is he died in his bed, not in prison.
I couldn't agree more. BigG is the one who has decreed that we should not mention the D word.
I think BIgG was talking about U.K. politicians - none of whom remotely are in the same class as Mugabe, however foolish, selfish, stupid, arrogant or venal they may be. Their richly deserved judgement can be delivered by the electorate, not the almighty.
I know Wainbody quite well as my Dad lives in the next ward.
It may be in the city of Coventry but it is not natural Labour territory. It is very leafy and has more in common with places like Solihull than (city of) Coventry.
Not many students live in the ward either so I wouldn’t use it to gauge the results of student towns.
It's still a place Labour in living memory have never been 3rd or 34.6% behind the Tories. The surprise isn't so much a CON victory, more the Lab LD swing
Labour are lucky the by election wasn't in Earlsdon. That'd have seen an even bigger Lab to LD swing I think with the Tories gaining the ward by standing still
What is the last possible moment to go decide on a GE for 15th Oct? surely if a decision is not made by say Tue next week there is not enough time to make an election happen? I am thinking in terms of postal votes, the registration burden of new voters etc and overseas voters (embassy staff, military personnel, expats etc)
Technically next Monday. But they'd have to prorogue and proclaim that same evening after the FTPA motion passed.
The overnight local election results indicate a nightmare for Labour, very modest progress for Johnsonism* - and the LDs coming from nowhere to be now neck and neck with Labour as England's party of opposition.
In core Coventry Leave territory, yet again Brexit demonstrated its electoral incompetence. The commentariat really MUST accept that Tice and Farage can't run a pissup in a brewery
Labour's electoral demise will be when the rump of loyal Labour Leavers, realising they are mocked behind their backs by Labour MPs, ask themselves "What has Labour actually ever done for me?" And realise it is actually bugger all. As they have realised in Scotland - and are realising in Wales.
Waiting for the destruction of the rotten Labour Party is like waiting for a seven-figure lottery jackpot: one can dream of it, and indeed imagine that it would be one of the most fantastic things that could possibly happen, but the chances of it coming to pass are many millions to one.
If there's one lesson we can take from 2017, it's that vast numbers of Labour and Tory robot voters still shuffle zombie-like across the political landscape, and that the old trope about pinning a red or blue rosette to a donkey still holds. Whilst occasional freak results are possible - such as when Leanne Wood beat Labour in the Rhondda in the last Welsh Assembly election - most Labour MPs sit on Albanian majorities in their core territories and are, effectively, unsackable.
Labour has returned over 200 MPs in every election held since the War, and would continue to do so even if led by a latter-day Stalin or Pol Pot, let alone by Jeremy Corbyn. The unique circumstances that led to its collapse in Scotland - a prolonged period of government by ineffectual Labour leaders, the huge cultural shift towards independence, and a skilfully-led opposition that blew apart the Labour vote by positioning itself as a more appealing version of the Labour Party itself - are most unlikely to be repeated. Northern Labour voters are absolutely not going to defect to the Tories in droves (and I'm virtually certain that the Brexit Party won't win a single seat under FPTP.)
We are, I'm afraid, stuck with the Labour Party for the long haul. It ain't going anywhere.
Labour's electoral demise will be when the rump of loyal Labour Leavers, realising they are mocked behind their backs by Labour MPs, ask themselves "What has Labour actually ever done for me?" And realise it is actually bugger all. As they have realised in Scotland - and are realising in Wales.
Waiting for the destruction of the rotten Labour Party is like waiting for a seven-figure lottery jackpot: one can dream of it, and indeed imagine that it would be one of the most fantastic things that could possibly happen, but the chances of it coming to pass are many millions to one.
If there's one lesson we can take from 2017, it's that vast numbers of Labour and Tory robot voters still shuffle zombie-like across the political landscape, and that the old trope about pinning a red or blue rosette to a donkey still holds. Whilst occasional freak results are possible - such as when Leanne Wood beat Labour in the Rhondda in the last Welsh Assembly election - most Labour MPs sit on Albanian majorities in their core territories and are, effectively, unsackable.
Labour has returned over 200 MPs in every election held since the War, and would continue to do so even if led by a latter-day Stalin or Pol Pot, let alone by Jeremy Corbyn. The unique circumstances that led to its collapse in Scotland - a prolonged period of government by ineffectual Labour leaders, the huge cultural shift towards independence, and a skilfully-led opposition that blew apart the Labour vote by positioning itself as a more appealing version of the Labour Party itself - are most unlikely to be repeated. Northern Labour voters are absolutely not going to defect to the Tories in droves (and I'm virtually certain that the Brexit Party won't win a single seat under FPTP.)
We are, I'm afraid, stuck with the Labour Party for the long haul. It ain't going anywhere.
Labour's electoral demise will be when the rump of loyal Labour Leavers, realising they are mocked behind their backs by Labour MPs, ask themselves "What has Labour actually ever done for me?" And realise it is actually bugger all. As they have realised in Scotland - and are realising in Wales.
Waiting for the destruction of the rotten Labour Party is like waiting for a seven-figure lottery jackpot: one can dream of it, and indeed imagine that it would be one of the most fantastic things that could possibly happen, but the chances of it coming to pass are many millions to one.
If there's one lesson we can take from 2017, it's that vast numbers of Labour and Tory robot voters still shuffle zombie-like across the political landscape, and that the old trope about pinning a red or blue rosette to a donkey still holds. Whilst occasional freak results are possible - such as when Leanne Wood beat Labour in the Rhondda in the last Welsh Assembly election - most Labour MPs sit on Albanian majorities in their core territories and are, effectively, unsackable.
Labour has returned over 200 MPs in every election held since the War, and would continue to do so even if led by a latter-day Stalin or Pol Pot, let alone by Jeremy Corbyn. The unique circumstances that led to its collapse in Scotland - a prolonged period of government by ineffectual Labour leaders, the huge cultural shift towards independence, and a skilfully-led opposition that blew apart the Labour vote by positioning itself as a more appealing version of the Labour Party itself - are most unlikely to be repeated. Northern Labour voters are absolutely not going to defect to the Tories in droves (and I'm virtually certain that the Brexit Party won't win a single seat under FPTP.)
We are, I'm afraid, stuck with the Labour Party for the long haul. It ain't going anywhere.
Scotland 2015
But that’s when there was a (fairly) competent left of centre alternative. Who are England’s SNP?
The death of Mugabe marks the end of an era. There are few like him left in Africa, except arguably in RSA. Those who made their names in the political and military stuggles against colonialism, then went on to lead their nations. That class of populist kleptocrats destroying the economic base of their country is no more, at least in Africa.
I don't know Zim well, but "Uncle Bob" was quite popular with the staff of the hospital I worked in in Malawi, even fairly recently.
Labour's electoral demise will be when the rump of loyal Labour Leavers, realising they are mocked behind their backs by Labour MPs, ask themselves "What has Labour actually ever done for me?" And realise it is actually bugger all. As they have realised in Scotland - and are realising in Wales.
Waiting for the destruction of the rotten Labour Party is like waiting for a seven-figure lottery jackpot: one can dream of it, and indeed imagine that it would be one of the most fantastic things that could possibly happen, but the chances of it coming to pass are many millions to one.
If there's one lesson we can take from 2017, it's that vast numbers of Labour and Tory robot voters still shuffle zombie-like across the political landscape, and that the old trope about pinning a red or blue rosette to a donkey still holds. Whilst occasional freak results are possible - such as when Leanne Wood beat Labour in the Rhondda in the last Welsh Assembly election - most Labour MPs sit on Albanian majorities in their core territories and are, effectively, unsackable.
Labour has returned over 200 MPs in every election held since the War, and would continue to do so even if led by a latter-day Stalin or Pol Pot, let alone by Jeremy Corbyn. The unique circumstances that led to its collapse in Scotland - a prolonged period of government by ineffectual Labour leaders, the huge cultural shift towards independence, and a skilfully-led opposition that blew apart the Labour vote by positioning itself as a more appealing version of the Labour Party itself - are most unlikely to be repeated. Northern Labour voters are absolutely not going to defect to the Tories in droves (and I'm virtually certain that the Brexit Party won't win a single seat under FPTP.)
We are, I'm afraid, stuck with the Labour Party for the long haul. It ain't going anywhere.
Labour has a ridiculously solid bedrock of seats at low vote % around 20, far more than the Tories or LD
Pesto raised the possibility last night that some top advisers and those close to Johnson think his only way out may be to defy the law and refuse to extend. Given what he said yesterday and the ridiculous corner he's boxed himself into, perhaps this is the only route.
It would be political suicide. But that might not stop him. And I'm not convinced Bercow would suspend him.
If there's a whiff of that today and over the weekend I wonder if the Opposition might, as soon as the No-Deal Bill gains Royal Assent, table a VONC on Monday or Tuesday. They would then install someone with the confidence of the house (and therefore new PM) to do two things 1. Go to Brussels and enact the extension 2. Call a General Election for November.
Johnson would remain leader of the Cons party, but not PM unless he then wins the election.
My 130-1 shot on Ken Clarke as temporary PM to fulfil this task looks dicey but not impossible. It's even more plausible following Ian Blackford's generous (and well deserved) praise. As an Independent MP he's more attractive to the Opposition. He sole role, his swansong, would be to see of the No Deal Brexit.
I do think the scenario of a VONC after the Royal Assent is very possible.
Labour's electoral demise will be when the rump of loyal Labour Leavers, realising they are mocked behind their backs by Labour MPs, ask themselves "What has Labour actually ever done for me?" And realise it is actually bugger all. As they have realised in Scotland - and are realising in Wales.
Waiting for the destruction of the rotten Labour Party is like waiting for a seven-figure lottery jackpot: one can dream of it, and indeed imagine that it would be one of the most fantastic things that could possibly happen, but the chances of it coming to pass are many millions to one.
If there's one lesson we can take from 2017, it's that vast numbers of Labour and Tory robot voters still shuffle zombie-like across the political landscape, and that the old trope about pinning a red or blue rosette to a donkey still holds. Whilst occasional freak results are possible - such as when Leanne Wood beat Labour in the Rhondda in the last Welsh Assembly election - most Labour MPs sit on Albanian majorities in their core territories and are, effectively, unsackable.
Labour has returned over 200 MPs in every election held since the War, and would continue to do so even if led by a latter-day Stalin or Pol Pot, let alone by Jeremy Corbyn. The unique circumstances that led to its collapse in Scotland - a prolonged period of government by ineffectual Labour leaders, the huge cultural shift towards independence, and a skilfully-led opposition that blew apart the Labour vote by positioning itself as a more appealing version of the Labour Party itself - are most unlikely to be repeated. Northern Labour voters are absolutely not going to defect to the Tories in droves (and I'm virtually certain that the Brexit Party won't win a single seat under FPTP.)
We are, I'm afraid, stuck with the Labour Party for the long haul. It ain't going anywhere.
Scotland 2015
Nah. The forthcoming election is hard to gauge, but at this stage the most likely outcome is a Labour minority Government. The Conservatives need to win very near to an outright majority to govern, because they can't rely on any party other than the DUP to support them, and at this stage they look likely to rack up more losses in Remain-leaning areas than gains in Leave-leaning ones.
The Tories' target regions are too full of Labour robot and Never-Tory voters. The Brexit Party could conceivably help rather than hinder the Tories by splitting the Labour vote, but Farage vehicles have a track record of doing well in European Elections (where the public feels it has a free hit against the established parties) but flopping in General Elections (where voters largely resume their usual loyalties.)
Sorry, but if Michael Foot in 1983 could hold onto over 200 seats against Thatcher, Corbyn is not going to struggle against BoJo.
Comments
Vale of Clwyd and Gwyr are two seats that the Tories won in 2015 ***because** there was a large UKIP vote.
When those voters went back to Labour in 2017, the Tories lost those 2 seats.
I mean, I take your word for it if you know them both; I have never met either of them. But I do know that Piers is utterly wrong about climate change.
So much scope for people to go out in a blaze of glory.
Piers sounds wonderful -- he would be a magnificent ornament to our House of Commons.
Depends where Farage stands.
Portillo was disappointingly gracious when he got punted, IIRC.
Still, I suppose it's all relative.
I was about to go to bed when Mellor got ousted, then it was so entertaining that I was up til sunrise.
They’re only hope of avoiding a bad election is to keep the BP relevant and eating into the Tory vote .
Going for an election in mid October would be playing into Bozos hands .
He received his formal education at Millfield, and Eton College, which he left early in 1949 at the age of 16, after winning a horse racing bet of £10 on a three-horsed accumulator Lewes, winning £8,000 (equivalent to about £262,000 in March 2017).
Absolutely superb.
I watched 2001 alone and by 6 was thinking well what was the point of that
Who has £330 to gamble on an 800/1 shot?
Scotland
Labour will be wiped out, although Murray might scrape home
Lib dems will hold their 4 and gain fife NE
Tories will scrape together 5 holds - 2 border seats and 3 in the NE, ab west, banff and Angus I think
Leaving the SNP on 47 or 48
Dumfries and Galloway will be a close fight and if there are to be any surprises look to Perth and NP or Argyll and Bute
https://www.channel4.com/news/dr-david-nicholl-if-rees-mogg-wants-to-repeat-that-outside-of-parliament-i-will-sue
https://twitter.com/LADFLEG/status/1169682239468310529?s=20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1169767288582672385?s=20
But on Thursday evening, the MP for North East Somerset, apologised to Dr Nicholl for his comments in the Commons.
In a statement he said he had "the utmost respect for all of the country's hardworking medical professionals and the work they do in caring for the people of this country."
He added that the government was "working closely with the NHS, industry and distributors to help ensure the supply of medicine and medical products remains uninterrupted" by the UK's withdrawal from the EU.
Brave Sir Jacob.
His father was a tycoon, y'know.
They are going to be seen as the reason that we haven't done a deal yet. So they can negotiate a better deal. Which they would then vote down.
As Boris looks straight into the camera to the voters and says "See what I'm up against?"
Cameron was in pretty much the same situation: He said he'd negotiate a deal, then if it wasn't good enough, recommend rejecting it and leaving the EU instead. Admittedly he was lying when he pretended to plan to do that, but it the line didn't seem to do him any harm in the campaign.
It could also have been presented better. Start by making it clear that the Party supports Remain, but out of deference to those who want to Leave it will try to negotiate a better Deal than the one currently on offer.
That's not unreasonable but where it really falls down is that it then has to say what Deal it would seek and what chance it has of succeeding. It then becomes clear the Deal being sought would either not be offered by the EU, and even if it were it wouldn't be very popular with the voters here. So what's the point?
Of course we all know the real point is that it is the best Labour can do to get itself out of a tangle. It cannot now go full on Remain without appearing weak and inconsistent, and it would in any case be too late to get much traction for a policy which the LDs have owned consistently and for which they now seem to be reaping some reward.
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-believe-that-david-cameron-would-campaign-to-leave-the-eu-if-he-does-not-achieve-a-good-deal/
I know Wainbody quite well as my Dad lives in the next ward.
It may be in the city of Coventry but it is not natural Labour territory. It is very leafy and has more in common with places like Solihull than (city of) Coventry.
Not many students live in the ward either so I wouldn’t use it to gauge the results of student towns.
Add in an unhealthy dollop of anti-semitism to the mix, and a chunk of the professional/intellectual vote is feeling queasy about sticking with Labour, especially when there's "that nice lady Swinton? Swinson? Which one is the insurance company?" to maybe vote for. She isn't conflicted by her voter base or respecting democracy from saying what she really wants to do. Can Brexit.
And as Corbyn squirms on the fence, now not wanting an election that has been his go-to sound-bite for two years, that noise you hear is Labour's anal fissures, tearing a bit more every day....
Labour's electoral demise will be when the rump of loyal Labour Leavers, realising they are mocked behind their backs by Labour MPs, ask themselves "What has Labour actually ever done for me?" And realise it is actually bugger all. As they have realised in Scotland - and are realising in Wales.
https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/05/johnson-winner-prime-minister-election-people-parliament?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true
Cameron should have been firmer with his Eurosceptic wing and Juncker should have been more sensitive to his difficulty and given him a bit more wiggle room.
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1169838744045678595?s=20
In core Coventry Leave territory, yet again Brexit demonstrated its electoral incompetence. The commentariat really MUST accept that Tice and Farage can't run a pissup in a brewery
https://twitter.com/britainelects
*Under current mismanagement, there is no longer a Conservative party.
If there's one lesson we can take from 2017, it's that vast numbers of Labour and Tory robot voters still shuffle zombie-like across the political landscape, and that the old trope about pinning a red or blue rosette to a donkey still holds. Whilst occasional freak results are possible - such as when Leanne Wood beat Labour in the Rhondda in the last Welsh Assembly election - most Labour MPs sit on Albanian majorities in their core territories and are, effectively, unsackable.
Labour has returned over 200 MPs in every election held since the War, and would continue to do so even if led by a latter-day Stalin or Pol Pot, let alone by Jeremy Corbyn. The unique circumstances that led to its collapse in Scotland - a prolonged period of government by ineffectual Labour leaders, the huge cultural shift towards independence, and a skilfully-led opposition that blew apart the Labour vote by positioning itself as a more appealing version of the Labour Party itself - are most unlikely to be repeated. Northern Labour voters are absolutely not going to defect to the Tories in droves (and I'm virtually certain that the Brexit Party won't win a single seat under FPTP.)
We are, I'm afraid, stuck with the Labour Party for the long haul. It ain't going anywhere.
I don't know Zim well, but "Uncle Bob" was quite popular with the staff of the hospital I worked in in Malawi, even fairly recently.
It would be political suicide. But that might not stop him. And I'm not convinced Bercow would suspend him.
If there's a whiff of that today and over the weekend I wonder if the Opposition might, as soon as the No-Deal Bill gains Royal Assent, table a VONC on Monday or Tuesday. They would then install someone with the confidence of the house (and therefore new PM) to do two things 1. Go to Brussels and enact the extension 2. Call a General Election for November.
Johnson would remain leader of the Cons party, but not PM unless he then wins the election.
My 130-1 shot on Ken Clarke as temporary PM to fulfil this task looks dicey but not impossible. It's even more plausible following Ian Blackford's generous (and well deserved) praise. As an Independent MP he's more attractive to the Opposition. He sole role, his swansong, would be to see of the No Deal Brexit.
I do think the scenario of a VONC after the Royal Assent is very possible.
The Tories' target regions are too full of Labour robot and Never-Tory voters. The Brexit Party could conceivably help rather than hinder the Tories by splitting the Labour vote, but Farage vehicles have a track record of doing well in European Elections (where the public feels it has a free hit against the established parties) but flopping in General Elections (where voters largely resume their usual loyalties.)
Sorry, but if Michael Foot in 1983 could hold onto over 200 seats against Thatcher, Corbyn is not going to struggle against BoJo.