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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What will next set of polls show? I have no idea

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited September 6 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What will next set of polls show? I have no idea

I saw this, cringed so hard, my feet shrank three sizes. https://t.co/VbgZAte8pA

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,004
    edited September 6
    Scott_P said:
    First? FPT and re the "hostage" stuff.

    I've been wondering if there's a possibility for the opposition (or at least, a segment of the opposition necessary to reach the 2/3 threshold) to demand something else in return for granting Johnson's preferred timing (and hence avoid looking like election-ducking cowards).

    Perhaps something really humiliating to absolutely underline the narrative that Boris is weak and doesn't/can't keep his promises.

    Perhaps a favourable change to the electoral laws. Don't think you could do anything super-radical here - implementing the boundary review would actually likely favour the Tories, wouldn't it? And not much else is easily ready to roll out. AV is off the menu after its referendum failure. PR or multi-member STV would be too drastic to push through (though I'm sure there's some ancient STV legislation that could be given a dusting-off...). But how about:

    "This is a generational-defining election, and the voting age must accordingly fall to 16 - just as it is already in the more progressive parts of the UK."

    Is that a go-er? My first thought was that the logistics would be tricky in terms of registration, but in principle there'd be time for the eager ones to register during the campaign and the less-than-eager probably wouldn't vote anyway.

    There's got to be something tempting about trying to lock in a permanent electoral advantage in return for a one-off concession over timing, particularly if the timing issue is a double-edged takeaway-flavoured sword for them...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    edited September 6
    If last night's council by election result swings are anything to go by Boris should have increased his poll lead while Labour could even collapse to third behind the LDs, with Labour Leave voters going Brexit Party or Tory and Labour Remainers going LD
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 375
    edited September 6
    Is this a new poll?



    (Edit: The tweet doesn't appear to be loading for me but it refers to this)
    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/tories-set-lose-scottish-seats-19586216?1

    The Conservatives are set to lose all their Scottish seats to the SNP in a general election, a new poll suggests.
    There are 13 Tory MPs in Scotland, but the YouGov poll for the People's Vote campaign indicates they would all be replaced by the SNP.
  • Scott_P said:
    This is obviously a HUGE victory for Boris. Another 13 gone!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,993
    edited September 6
    Guessing: Con -1 Lab -2 LD+2 BXP = but best PM ratings Johnson down, Corbyn up.

    But who knows?
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 295
    HYUFD said:

    If last night's council by election result swings are anything to go by Boris should have increased his poll lead while Labour could even collapse to third behind the LDs, with Labour Leave voters going Brexit Party or Tory and Labour Remainers going LD

    Won't an increased Conservative lead just make Labour dig their heels in further re: election? They just have to sit tight and wait for the tide to turn after halloween.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,733
    My guess:

    Con, Lib-Dem, SNP up!

    Lab, BXP down!

    Con Lead Up Over Lab

    Only one more sleep until we find out anyway. :D
  • Ignore this weekends headline figures. See how Boris' personal ratings react ( if at all ) to the prorogation power play. That's the last big event voters have had time to digest.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    Scott_P said:
    Misleading, it was a poll across all 13 seats not individual seats and just used one headline voteshare
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Misleading, it was a poll across all 13 seats not individual seats and just used one headline voteshare
    👀
  • woody662woody662 Posts: 238

    Guessing: Con -1 Lab -2 LD+2 BXP = but best PM ratings Johnson down, Corbyn up.

    But who knows?

    Nonsense, Corbyn calling for an election for 2 years then ducking it. I don't think the general public will be impressed with the opposition antics at all.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,571

    Scott_P said:
    This is obviously a HUGE victory for Boris. Another 13 gone!
    Can’t wait to see HY proclaiming this as an immense victory for Conservatism and Unionism.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,235
    eek said:
    Even more reason for a No Deal Brexit.
  • Scott_P said:
    This is obviously a HUGE victory for Boris. Another 13 gone!
    Can’t wait to see HY proclaiming this as an immense victory for Conservatism and Unionism.
    I see you are getting into the mode-of-the-moment too.

    Exciting, isn't it?

    :dizzy:
  • eek said:
    Even more reason for a No Deal Brexit.
    All part of the healthy eating agenda. No doubt the BMA will be supportive.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,395
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Misleading, it was a poll across all 13 seats not individual seats and just used one headline voteshare
    Oh thank God, I was almost slightly worried about this.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 1,647
    On topic, I'm not sure the "chicken" message is designed to goad Corbyn into an election.

    It feels more to me like it's a strategy designed to neutralise talk of a coup.

    Consider the average, uninformed voter. They hear in the media - especially social media - that BoJo is behaving undemocratically.

    Today we have chicken memes and KFC spreading the message far and wide to the average non-follower of politics. The Tories wanted an election, it was Corbyn who chickened out.

    As an ad I think it's ugly and clumsy but as a message I think it penetrates and neutralises the opposition line of attack.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,571
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Misleading, it was a poll across all 13 seats not individual seats and just used one headline voteshare
    You’ve no shame. You are a master at misleading analysis of polls.
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 457
    Honestly, the likely reaction of posh snobs is now a good enough reason to want to see Boris win.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,235
    Scott_P said:
    "Break him"? Sounds awfully personal to me.

    What do they want, psychological damage? Physical damage?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,971
    prediction for ipsos
    con 37 lab 25 lib dem 18 bxp 8 green 5 SNP 4
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489
    ab195 said:

    Honestly, the likely reaction of posh snobs is now a good enough reason to want to see Boris win.

    Like Jacob Rees Mogg?
  • eekeek Posts: 5,520
    kyf_100 said:

    On topic, I'm not sure the "chicken" message is designed to goad Corbyn into an election.

    It feels more to me like it's a strategy designed to neutralise talk of a coup.

    Consider the average, uninformed voter. They hear in the media - especially social media - that BoJo is behaving undemocratically.

    Today we have chicken memes and KFC spreading the message far and wide to the average non-follower of politics. The Tories wanted an election, it was Corbyn who chickened out.

    As an ad I think it's ugly and clumsy but as a message I think it penetrates and neutralises the opposition line of attack.

    Come next week when Parliament is prorogued the opposition will start calling for an election again as Boris can’t fix the issue until late October
  • Scott_P said:
    "Break him"? Sounds awfully personal to me.

    What do they want, psychological damage? Physical damage?
    Well he's the one who has talked about 'Do or die' and said he'd rather die in a ditch than extend.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489
    TGOHF said:
    Why have you got the absolute boy Jeremy F*ckin’ Corbyn as your avatar?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,954
    On topic bigger Tory lead imo.

    Actual campaign it will evaporate though
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,571
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    Saw the package on ITV Border News re Boris' visit to Scottish Farmers. His non verbals were awful. Superficially he was the old Boris and the public wasn't hostile but he looked deflated, broken and in slightly poor health. We can know what but behind the scenes ge's obviously received a crushing psychological blow this week. They also included a few shots of Ruth Davidson's resignation and an authoritative interview with an SNP government minister. He pulled off the exasperated head teacher act very well.

    We'll see but it's been a bad week for the project.

    I still find it difficult to make sense of. In a sense the Commons have got him off the hook by tying his hands and refusing an election. If he's crushed by that, does it mean he was crazy enough to think that No Deal was going to be a rip-roaring success? Or is he crushed because he realises he's hopelessly inadequate at the job?
    Maybe he heard that HYUFD was suggesting he resign?
    Could be the best cure? As leader of the largest party Boris would be the most powerful Leader of the Opposition in British history, he could harry Corbyn or any other PM every step of the way as they betray the will of the people facing one of the weakest governments in British history made of multiple parties with little in common but stopping Brexit, no responsibilities, a guaranteed big poll lead. Assuming the extend again Bill gets Royal Assent and the general election vote is defeated on Monday what is not to like?
    You're talking about Johnson being out of office after a month and a half, having split his own party, betrayed his "do or die" election pitch, and installed Corbyn as prime minister - and you're asking "what is not to like"?

    Unreal.
    I think that Brexit has, quite literally, driven a lot of Tories mad.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,549
    CatMan said:

    Is this a new poll?



    (Edit: The tweet doesn't appear to be loading for me but it refers to this)
    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/tories-set-lose-scottish-seats-19586216?1

    The Conservatives are set to lose all their Scottish seats to the SNP in a general election, a new poll suggests.
    There are 13 Tory MPs in Scotland, but the YouGov poll for the People's Vote campaign indicates they would all be replaced by the SNP.

    The result of BoZos brilliant campaigning today?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    edited September 6
    dodrade said:

    HYUFD said:

    If last night's council by election result swings are anything to go by Boris should have increased his poll lead while Labour could even collapse to third behind the LDs, with Labour Leave voters going Brexit Party or Tory and Labour Remainers going LD

    Won't an increased Conservative lead just make Labour dig their heels in further re: election? They just have to sit tight and wait for the tide to turn after halloween.
    It won't turn. As the news is suggesting this evening Boris will refuse to extend, go into opposition if necessary and refuse to bow down to the diehard Remainer traitors to democracy in Parliament and lead phase 2 of the war to deliver Brexit from opposition promising to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal if he wins a majority at the next election.

    He will be a hero to his party and Leavers for refusing to give in to the treachery in the Commons
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    Saw the package on ITV Border News re Boris' visit to Scottish Farmers. His non verbals were awful. Superficially he was the old Boris and the public wasn't hostile but he looked deflated, broken and in slightly poor health. We can know what but behind the scenes ge's obviously received a crushing psychological blow this week. They also included a few shots of Ruth Davidson's resignation and an authoritative interview with an SNP government minister. He pulled off the exasperated head teacher act very well.

    We'll see but it's been a bad week for the project.

    I still find it difficult to make sense of. In a sense the Commons have got him off the hook by tying his hands and refusing an election. If he's crushed by that, does it mean he was crazy enough to think that No Deal was going to be a rip-roaring success? Or is he crushed because he realises he's hopelessly inadequate at the job?
    Maybe he heard that HYUFD was suggesting he resign?
    Could be the best cure? As leader of the largest party Boris would be the most powerful Leader of the Opposition in British history, he could harry Corbyn or any other PM every step of the way as they betray the will of the people facing one of the weakest governments in British history made of multiple parties with little in common but stopping Brexit, no responsibilities, a guaranteed big poll lead. Assuming the extend again Bill gets Royal Assent and the general election vote is defeated on Monday what is not to like?
    You're talking about Johnson being out of office after a month and a half, having split his own party, betrayed his "do or die" election pitch, and installed Corbyn as prime minister - and you're asking "what is not to like"?

    Unreal.
    I think that Brexit has, quite literally, driven a lot of Tories mad.
    I think its driven us all mad to be honest.
  • Foxy said:

    CatMan said:

    Is this a new poll?



    (Edit: The tweet doesn't appear to be loading for me but it refers to this)
    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/tories-set-lose-scottish-seats-19586216?1

    The Conservatives are set to lose all their Scottish seats to the SNP in a general election, a new poll suggests.
    There are 13 Tory MPs in Scotland, but the YouGov poll for the People's Vote campaign indicates they would all be replaced by the SNP.

    The result of BoZos brilliant campaigning today?
    All the fieldwork was before today.
  • HYUFD said:

    If last night's council by election result swings are anything to go by Boris should have increased his poll lead while Labour could even collapse to third behind the LDs, with Labour Leave voters going Brexit Party or Tory and Labour Remainers going LD

    What is the point when they face wipeout in Scotland and London and the South

    Your earlier predictions of a majority Boris government are melting faster than snow in a desert

    Boris has defenestrated the party, made himself an object of jest and laughter, and his actions have most certainly ended a no deal brexit, and possibly brexit completely

    You do not win elections this way and the 19th October will be his day of reckoning, if he gets that far. His only chance of saving anything is to get Kinnocks WDA through by the 19th enabling exit on the 31st

    Anything else and he is toast and as for his party, unless there is a coup it is finished
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489
    HYUFD said:

    dodrade said:

    HYUFD said:

    If last night's council by election result swings are anything to go by Boris should have increased his poll lead while Labour could even collapse to third behind the LDs, with Labour Leave voters going Brexit Party or Tory and Labour Remainers going LD

    Won't an increased Conservative lead just make Labour dig their heels in further re: election? They just have to sit tight and wait for the tide to turn after halloween.
    It won't turn. As the news is suggesting this evening Boris will refuse to extend, go into opposition if necessary and refuse to bow down to the diehard Remainer traitors to democracy in Parliament and lead phase 2 of the war to deliver Brexit from opposition promising to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal if he wins a majority at the next election.

    He will be a hero to his party and Leavers for refusing to give in to the treachery in the Commons
    You go girl
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 3,358

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    Saw the package on ITV Border News re Boris' visit to Scottish Farmers. His non verbals were awful. Superficially he was the old Boris and the public wasn't hostile but he looked deflated, broken and in slightly poor health. We can know what but behind the scenes ge's obviously received a crushing psychological blow this week. They also included a few shots of Ruth Davidson's resignation and an authoritative interview with an SNP government minister. He pulled off the exasperated head teacher act very well.

    We'll see but it's been a bad week for the project.

    I still find it difficult to make sense of. In a sense the Commons have got him off the hook by tying his hands and refusing an election. If he's crushed by that, does it mean he was crazy enough to think that No Deal was going to be a rip-roaring success? Or is he crushed because he realises he's hopelessly inadequate at the job?
    Maybe he heard that HYUFD was suggesting he resign?
    Could be the best cure? As leader of the largest party Boris would be the most powerful Leader of the Opposition in British history, he could harry Corbyn or any other PM every step of the way as they betray the will of the people facing one of the weakest governments in British history made of multiple parties with little in common but stopping Brexit, no responsibilities, a guaranteed big poll lead. Assuming the extend again Bill gets Royal Assent and the general election vote is defeated on Monday what is not to like?
    You're talking about Johnson being out of office after a month and a half, having split his own party, betrayed his "do or die" election pitch, and installed Corbyn as prime minister - and you're asking "what is not to like"?

    Unreal.
    I think that Brexit has, quite literally, driven a lot of Tories mad.
    Nobody has escaped the Brexit brainworms. Not you, not me. Nobody. But some brains have provided more fertile ground than others.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    edited September 6

    Scott_P said:
    First? FPT and re the "hostage" stuff.

    I've been wondering if there's a possibility for the opposition (or at least, a segment of the opposition necessary to reach the 2/3 threshold) to demand something else in return for granting Johnson's preferred timing (and hence avoid looking like election-ducking cowards).

    Perhaps something really humiliating to absolutely underline the narrative that Boris is weak and doesn't/can't keep his promises.

    Perhaps a favourable change to the electoral laws. Don't think you could do anything super-radical here - implementing the boundary review would actually likely favour the Tories, wouldn't it? And not much else is easily ready to roll out. AV is off the menu after its referendum failure. PR or multi-member STV would be too drastic to push through (though I'm sure there's some ancient STV legislation that could be given a dusting-off...). But how about:

    "This is a generational-defining election, and the voting age must accordingly fall to 16 - just as it is already in the more progressive parts of the UK."

    Is that a go-er? My first thought was that the logistics would be tricky in terms of registration, but in principle there'd be time for the eager ones to register during the campaign and the less-than-eager probably wouldn't vote anyway.

    There's got to be something tempting about trying to lock in a permanent electoral advantage in return for a one-off concession over timing, particularly if the timing issue is a double-edged takeaway-flavoured sword for them...
    ab195 said:

    Honestly, the likely reaction of posh snobs is now a good enough reason to want to see Boris win.

    You want to see JRM happy? Edit. Gallowgate got in first.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,571

    Scott_P said:
    "Break him"? Sounds awfully personal to me.

    What do they want, psychological damage? Physical damage?
    Er... remember “Crush The Saboteurs”?

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,335

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    Saw the package on ITV Border News re Boris' visit to Scottish Farmers. His non verbals were awful. Superficially he was the old Boris and the public wasn't hostile but he looked deflated, broken and in slightly poor health. We can know what but behind the scenes ge's obviously received a crushing psychological blow this week. They also included a few shots of Ruth Davidson's resignation and an authoritative interview with an SNP government minister. He pulled off the exasperated head teacher act very well.

    We'll see but it's been a bad week for the project.

    I still find it difficult to make sense of. In a sense the Commons have got him off the hook by tying his hands and refusing an election. If he's crushed by that, does it mean he was crazy enough to think that No Deal was going to be a rip-roaring success? Or is he crushed because he realises he's hopelessly inadequate at the job?
    Maybe he heard that HYUFD was suggesting he resign?
    Could be the best cure? As leader of the largest party Boris would be the most powerful Leader of the Opposition in British history, he could harry Corbyn or any other PM every step of the way as they betray the will of the people facing one of the weakest governments in British history made of multiple parties with little in common but stopping Brexit, no responsibilities, a guaranteed big poll lead. Assuming the extend again Bill gets Royal Assent and the general election vote is defeated on Monday what is not to like?
    You're talking about Johnson being out of office after a month and a half, having split his own party, betrayed his "do or die" election pitch, and installed Corbyn as prime minister - and you're asking "what is not to like"?

    Unreal.
    I think that Brexit has, quite literally, driven a lot of Tories mad.
    It's also achieved the impossible and impelled Corbyn to turn down an election opportunity.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 50,091
    HYUFD said:

    As the news is suggesting this evening Boris will refuse to extend, go into opposition if necessary

    The saviour of the party, the man who became leader because he can win, is going to hand the keys to Corbyn?

    He is going to gloriously lead the headbangers OUT of government?

    Lucky if he lasts the week after that...
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,571

    Foxy said:

    All this is he unwell stuff, it's a little unfair. Boris clearly has a slightly odd resting face, in interviews before I've noticed he tends to stare what looks rather blankly whilst he thinks. That and the bumbling give the impression of someone struggling and I think could be easily exploited by using the 'right' pictures.
    Of course it might all be very straining too but the undertone of the coverage this week concerns me, theres what feels like a lot of personal animosity there

    Certainly true with his old squeeze in today's picture. Right down to the park bench, coffee and ciggies.

    I can't see the bottle of cider !
    That’s Buckfast in the cup.
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 457

    ab195 said:

    Honestly, the likely reaction of posh snobs is now a good enough reason to want to see Boris win.

    Like Jacob Rees Mogg?
    Nah, the likes of Rees-Mogg are upper class twits. I reserve different types of loathing for different types of posh people. But I’m otherwise very fair minded.

    Except for men who don’t wear proper socks with shoes.

    Oh, and vegans.

    And anyone who doesn’t drink.

    Well basically people who don’t live near me and drink in my local. And even then I’m suspicious of lager drinkers.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,677
    eek said:
    The fact that it doesn’t have “Getty [email protected] across it suggests that it was properly licensed not “pirated”

    The person who tweeted it however stole it. Limited personal use is allowed free of charge but a journalist tweeting it could be deemed in furtherance of his work
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,235

    Scott_P said:
    "Break him"? Sounds awfully personal to me.

    What do they want, psychological damage? Physical damage?
    Er... remember “Crush The Saboteurs”?

    Yes, but "crushing" is what you do to a movement isn't it? 'Break'? And one individual? Horrible words from the leader of Plaid today, most unseemly.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293

    On topic bigger Tory lead imo.

    Actual campaign it will evaporate though

    I agree. Tory lead up. However, if and increasingly when, we are still in the EU come November then not.
    You had one job, mate.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,677
    kyf_100 said:

    On topic, I'm not sure the "chicken" message is designed to goad Corbyn into an election.

    It feels more to me like it's a strategy designed to neutralise talk of a coup.

    Consider the average, uninformed voter. They hear in the media - especially social media - that BoJo is behaving undemocratically.

    Today we have chicken memes and KFC spreading the message far and wide to the average non-follower of politics. The Tories wanted an election, it was Corbyn who chickened out.

    As an ad I think it's ugly and clumsy but as a message I think it penetrates and neutralises the opposition line of attack.

    It might encourage talk of coops though...

    (I’ll get my coat)
  • Scott_P said:
    "Break him"? Sounds awfully personal to me.

    What do they want, psychological damage? Physical damage?
    Er... remember “Crush The Saboteurs”?

    Yes, but "crushing" is what you do to a movement isn't it? 'Break'? And one individual? Horrible words from the leader of Plaid today, most unseemly.
    Let me introduce you to Darius Guppy and the conservation he had with Boris

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387

    HYUFD said:

    If last night's council by election result swings are anything to go by Boris should have increased his poll lead while Labour could even collapse to third behind the LDs, with Labour Leave voters going Brexit Party or Tory and Labour Remainers going LD

    What is the point when they face wipeout in Scotland and London and the South

    Your earlier predictions of a majority Boris government are melting faster than snow in a desert

    Boris has defenestrated the party, made himself an object of jest and laughter, and his actions have most certainly ended a no deal brexit, and possibly brexit completely

    You do not win elections this way and the 19th October will be his day of reckoning, if he gets that far. His only chance of saving anything is to get Kinnocks WDA through by the 19th enabling exit on the 31st

    Anything else and he is toast and as for his party, unless there is a coup it is finished
    What rubbish Big G, when all the local council by elections last night showed big swing from Labour to the Tories and the Tories lead every current poll.

    I would also point out to you that on the latest YouGov 42% of Tory voters 1st preference is a Boris renegotiated Deal without the backstop, 35% have a first preference of leaving with No Deal and just 2% of Tory voters (and 2% of voters as a whole) now back leaving the EU on May's current Withdrawal Agreement

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ujzr9xbt4q/YouGov - Realistic Brexit.pdf
  • HYUFD said:

    dodrade said:

    HYUFD said:

    If last night's council by election result swings are anything to go by Boris should have increased his poll lead while Labour could even collapse to third behind the LDs, with Labour Leave voters going Brexit Party or Tory and Labour Remainers going LD

    Won't an increased Conservative lead just make Labour dig their heels in further re: election? They just have to sit tight and wait for the tide to turn after halloween.
    It won't turn. As the news is suggesting this evening Boris will refuse to extend, go into opposition if necessary and refuse to bow down to the diehard Remainer traitors to democracy in Parliament and lead phase 2 of the war to deliver Brexit from opposition promising to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal if he wins a majority at the next election.

    He will be a hero to his party and Leavers for refusing to give in to the treachery in the Commons
    You are not measured in any of your recent posts and give every impression you are in a blind panic and lashing out in an absurd and vindictive manner

    You would not behave this way if you thought you were winning, rather than losing
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 457
    Charles said:

    eek said:
    The fact that it doesn’t have “Getty [email protected] across it suggests that it was properly licensed not “pirated”

    The person who tweeted it however stole it. Limited personal use is allowed free of charge but a journalist tweeting it could be deemed in furtherance of his work
    The original post seems to imply that it’s normal to go and take photos for this sort of thing, rather than leverage an account with one of the photo sites. Bit naive.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387

    HYUFD said:

    dodrade said:

    HYUFD said:

    If last night's council by election result swings are anything to go by Boris should have increased his poll lead while Labour could even collapse to third behind the LDs, with Labour Leave voters going Brexit Party or Tory and Labour Remainers going LD

    Won't an increased Conservative lead just make Labour dig their heels in further re: election? They just have to sit tight and wait for the tide to turn after halloween.
    It won't turn. As the news is suggesting this evening Boris will refuse to extend, go into opposition if necessary and refuse to bow down to the diehard Remainer traitors to democracy in Parliament and lead phase 2 of the war to deliver Brexit from opposition promising to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal if he wins a majority at the next election.

    He will be a hero to his party and Leavers for refusing to give in to the treachery in the Commons
    You are not measured in any of your recent posts and give every impression you are in a blind panic and lashing out in an absurd and vindictive manner

    You would not behave this way if you thought you were winning, rather than losing
    We are winning the country as the weekend polls will likely show, we are not winning the Commons and Lords that is all
  • Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    Saw the package on ITV Border News re Boris' visit to Scottish Farmers. His non verbals were awful. Superficially he was the old Boris and the public wasn't hostile but he looked deflated, broken and in slightly poor health. We can know what but behind the scenes ge's obviously received a crushing psychological blow this week. They also included a few shots of Ruth Davidson's resignation and an authoritative interview with an SNP government minister. He pulled off the exasperated head teacher act very well.

    We'll see but it's been a bad week for the project.

    I still find it difficult to make sense of. In a sense the Commons have got him off the hook by tying his hands and refusing an election. If he's crushed by that, does it mean he was crazy enough to think that No Deal was going to be a rip-roaring success? Or is he crushed because he realises he's hopelessly inadequate at the job?
    Maybe he heard that HYUFD was suggesting he resign?
    Could be the best cure? As leader of the largest party Boris would be the most powerful Leader of the Opposition in British history, he could harry Corbyn or any other PM every step of the way as they betray the will of the people facing one of the weakest governments in British history made of multiple parties with little in common but stopping Brexit, no responsibilities, a guaranteed big poll lead. Assuming the extend again Bill gets Royal Assent and the general election vote is defeated on Monday what is not to like?
    You're talking about Johnson being out of office after a month and a half, having split his own party, betrayed his "do or die" election pitch, and installed Corbyn as prime minister - and you're asking "what is not to like"?

    Unreal.
    I think that Brexit has, quite literally, driven a lot of Tories mad.
    I think its driven us all mad to be honest.
    Indeed
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,235

    Scott_P said:
    "Break him"? Sounds awfully personal to me.

    What do they want, psychological damage? Physical damage?
    Er... remember “Crush The Saboteurs”?

    Yes, but "crushing" is what you do to a movement isn't it? 'Break'? And one individual? Horrible words from the leader of Plaid today, most unseemly.
    Let me introduce you to Darius Guppy and the conservation he had with Boris

    Sure, but do we really want our public political discourse to descend to this? I know passions are running high but it really is cringey.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dodrade said:

    HYUFD said:

    If last night's council by election result swings are anything to go by Boris should have increased his poll lead while Labour could even collapse to third behind the LDs, with Labour Leave voters going Brexit Party or Tory and Labour Remainers going LD

    Won't an increased Conservative lead just make Labour dig their heels in further re: election? They just have to sit tight and wait for the tide to turn after halloween.
    It won't turn. As the news is suggesting this evening Boris will refuse to extend, go into opposition if necessary and refuse to bow down to the diehard Remainer traitors to democracy in Parliament and lead phase 2 of the war to deliver Brexit from opposition promising to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal if he wins a majority at the next election.

    He will be a hero to his party and Leavers for refusing to give in to the treachery in the Commons
    You are not measured in any of your recent posts and give every impression you are in a blind panic and lashing out in an absurd and vindictive manner

    You would not behave this way if you thought you were winning, rather than losing
    We are winning the country as the weekend polls will likely show, we are not winning the Commons and Lords that is all
    Clearly not.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,571
    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    As the news is suggesting this evening Boris will refuse to extend, go into opposition if necessary

    The saviour of the party, the man who became leader because he can win, is going to hand the keys to Corbyn?

    He is going to gloriously lead the headbangers OUT of government?

    Lucky if he lasts the week after that...
    Nigel Farage can’t believe his luck.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,626
    So the public DO want an election...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    Labour 24%, LDs 18%, Brexit Party 17%.

    Boris preferred as PM by 46% now to 24% for Corbyn.

    Voters back an election by 48% to 31%.

    43% back the expulsion of the 21 Tory rebels to only 32% who disapprove.

    52% back leaving with No Deal to only 31% who back Corbyn as PM on a forced choice.


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7436869/Almost-half-Johnson-early-election-want-no-deal-Corbyn-poll-shows.html
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489
    Brexit Party splitting that right vote right open. Tasty.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    dixiedean said:

    On topic bigger Tory lead imo.

    Actual campaign it will evaporate though

    Is this a new PB record? At 10:24 I said

    I agree. Tory lead up. However, if and increasingly when, we are still in the EU come November then not.
    You had one job, mate.
    10:25 @Gallowgate produces poll showing Tory lead down 2!

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,626
    Public approve of booting out the Tory rebels !
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,626
    Public prefer no deal to Jezza !
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 457
    edited September 6
    We keep talking about the Brexit Party but I’m fascinated by the variability of the Green vote. Chances of a second seat?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    Any movement from the Tories to the Brexit Party with LDs also down. Labour unchanged. So Boris must stand his ground.
  • The public want Boris Johnson to resign if we haven't left by the 31st of October.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,626
    Danger for Boris after this week is that voters are moving straight to the Brexit party not Cons.

    The right must unite.
  • Foxy said:

    CatMan said:

    Is this a new poll?



    (Edit: The tweet doesn't appear to be loading for me but it refers to this)
    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/tories-set-lose-scottish-seats-19586216?1

    The Conservatives are set to lose all their Scottish seats to the SNP in a general election, a new poll suggests.
    There are 13 Tory MPs in Scotland, but the YouGov poll for the People's Vote campaign indicates they would all be replaced by the SNP.

    The result of BoZos brilliant campaigning today?
    Was at a Glaswegian business seminar last night. There is no one here prepared to support a no deal Brexit publicly. The mood has turned dark. The wipeout predicted could be even worse. A Lib Dem level of disaster.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    edited September 6

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dodrade said:

    HYUFD said:

    If last night's council by election result swings are anything to go by Boris should have increased his poll lead while Labour could even collapse to third behind the LDs, with Labour Leave voters going Brexit Party or Tory and Labour Remainers going LD

    Won't an increased Conservative lead just make Labour dig their heels in further re: election? They just have to sit tight and wait for the tide to turn after halloween.
    It won't turn. As the news is suggesting this evening Boris will refuse to extend, go into opposition if necessary and refuse to bow down to the diehard Remainer traitors to democracy in Parliament and lead phase 2 of the war to deliver Brexit from opposition promising to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal if he wins a majority at the next election.

    He will be a hero to his party and Leavers for refusing to give in to the treachery in the Commons
    You are not measured in any of your recent posts and give every impression you are in a blind panic and lashing out in an absurd and vindictive manner

    You would not behave this way if you thought you were winning, rather than losing
    We are winning the country as the weekend polls will likely show, we are not winning the Commons and Lords that is all
    Clearly not.
    Clearly, a 5% Tory poll lead with Boris with a big lead as preferred PM and voters preferring No Deal to a Corbyn Premiership by almost 2 to 1
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,549
    TGOHF said:

    Public approve of booting out the Tory rebels !

    Die-hard Brexiteers want the Wets out, Die-hard Remainers want them to cross the floor too.

    Obvious really!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,626

    The public want Boris Johnson to resign if we haven't left by the 31st of October.

    But down 11 points - trend is his friend.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dodrade said:

    HYUFD said:

    If last night's council by election result swings are anything to go by Boris should have increased his poll lead while Labour could even collapse to third behind the LDs, with Labour Leave voters going Brexit Party or Tory and Labour Remainers going LD

    Won't an increased Conservative lead just make Labour dig their heels in further re: election? They just have to sit tight and wait for the tide to turn after halloween.
    It won't turn. As the news is suggesting this evening Boris will refuse to extend, go into opposition if necessary and refuse to bow down to the diehard Remainer traitors to democracy in Parliament and lead phase 2 of the war to deliver Brexit from opposition promising to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal if he wins a majority at the next election.

    He will be a hero to his party and Leavers for refusing to give in to the treachery in the Commons
    You are not measured in any of your recent posts and give every impression you are in a blind panic and lashing out in an absurd and vindictive manner

    You would not behave this way if you thought you were winning, rather than losing
    We are winning the country as the weekend polls will likely show, we are not winning the Commons and Lords that is all
    Clearly not.
    Clearly, a 5% Tory poll lead with Boris with a big lead as preferred PM and voters preferring No Deal to a Corbyn Premiership by almost 2 to 1
    :D
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,640
    Scott_P said:
    The slightly bizarre thing about this the security features mandated by the ICAO for passports are less secure than those of most EU countries ID cards.

    It's almost like this is nothing to do with stopping fraud...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,549

    Brexit Party splitting that right vote right open. Tasty.

    Brexiteers do not trust BoZo? Perhaps they are not as dim as they seem.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,571

    Scott_P said:
    "Break him"? Sounds awfully personal to me.

    What do they want, psychological damage? Physical damage?
    Er... remember “Crush The Saboteurs”?

    Yes, but "crushing" is what you do to a movement isn't it? 'Break'? And one individual? Horrible words from the leader of Plaid today, most unseemly.
    Let me introduce you to Darius Guppy and the conservation he had with Boris

    Sure, but do we really want our public political discourse to descend to this? I know passions are running high but it really is cringey.
    What goes around, comes around.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 1,647
    Scott_P said:
    Yawn. Getty are notoriously litigious and
    Charles said:

    eek said:
    The fact that it doesn’t have “Getty [email protected] across it suggests that it was properly licensed not “pirated”

    The person who tweeted it however stole it. Limited personal use is allowed free of charge but a journalist tweeting it could be deemed in furtherance of his work
    The image would have been licensed by CCHQ, any journalist retweeting it would fall under fair use laws.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,520
    edited September 6
    Even at the height of his No Deal madman act, Johnson is losing ground to the Brexit Party and his personal ratings have gone negative. He’s done.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,235
    TGOHF said:

    Public approve of booting out the Tory rebels !

    After three years of Theresa May, the public will like anyone who seems decisive and unbending. As soon as Boris loses that image, its game over. Linked to his sticking to his 31st October deadline.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,377

    Nobody has escaped the Brexit brainworms. Not you, not me. Nobody. But some brains have provided more fertile ground than others.

    Certainly I'm affected. I've developed neurotic, slightly overheated, thinking patterns. It's mainly Trump but there's some Brexit in there too. And Johnson is not helping one iota. Mrs May was more manageable for me. Decent enough woman. Fields of wheat etc.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,337
    edited September 6
    The Scottish poll is applying uns based on the sample of 887 voters. It would make mundells and berwickshire too close to call and aberdeenshire west a closish fight so is not totally out of line with the recent Scotland only poll
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    Is there any change figure for that Best PM? 46-26 while bad, doesn't seem as bad for Jezza...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    TGOHF said:

    Danger for Boris after this week is that voters are moving straight to the Brexit party not Cons.

    The right must unite.

    Voters back kicking out the 21 Tory rebels in the poll so Boris must stand his ground and if anything get tougher
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387

    Brexit Party splitting that right vote right open. Tasty.

    LDs still splitting that left vote more
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,470
    HYUFD said:

    Labour 24%, LDs 18%, Brexit Party 17%.

    Boris preferred as PM by 46% now to 24% for Corbyn.

    Voters back an election by 48% to 31%.

    43% back the expulsion of the 21 Tory rebels to only 32% who disapprove.

    52% back leaving with No Deal to only 31% who back Corbyn as PM on a forced choice.


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7436869/Almost-half-Johnson-early-election-want-no-deal-Corbyn-poll-shows.html
    You ignored the rest . Only 22% prefer a no deal outcome . Remain leads Leave 53 v 47.

    They also prefer an election later after any so called negotiations are finished .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387

    The public want Boris Johnson to resign if we haven't left by the 31st of October.

    Which he will to become Leader of the Opposition
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,411
    HYUFD said:

    Any movement from the Tories to the Brexit Party with LDs also down. Labour unchanged. So Boris must stand his ground.

    Boris standing his ground is essential. The Tories are in decent shape if he does and lost otherwise.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,235
    edited September 6
    +3% to the Brexit party when they've hardly been in the media, except a brief interview with Farage on one of the news stations being questioned on a 'pact', and Tice on Question Time.

    Could just be margin of error stuff.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,640
    TGOHF said:
    Let me summarise that article: to be a true Conservative you must accept the following without question.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,571
    Brexit Party on 17% = Tories shafted

    Con + Lab combined on just 53% = UNS shafted
This discussion has been closed.