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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Tory is value as Next PM

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited September 7 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Tory is value as Next PM

This has not been Boris Johnson’s finest week. A series of humiliating defeats in Westminster, an underwhelming PMQs, harangued on the campaign trail, caught out using policemen for partisan ends and left to dangle in Number 10 without either an electoral escape or a means of leaving the EU by the foolishly promised 31 October.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,833
    First, like Boris
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,571
    Second, like Jo Swinson in East Dunbartonshire.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,571
    Herdson’s lost it.

    Boris might well win a GE?

    Not with the Brexit Party in the high teens.

    And with the combined Con+Lab vote sub 55%, you can throw Uniform National Swing out the window too.

    There be carnage ahead lads. Man the lifeboats.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182
    Good article, David. Not a market I'm playing yet though, partly for reasons you describe.

    I have small amounts on Hunt and Gove as potential next PMs.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,640
    Has anyone other than me been watching Succession. It's surely superb.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,571
    A word of warning to anyone thinking of staking cash on next Con leader: it’s not that long ago since one of the top names on that list was Ruth Davidson.

    I wonder what happened to her?

    #RuthForFM

    Ho ho.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 26,696
    "If Johnson does win a Tory majority, that might well stick through to 2024 – but would he? The evidence from the last week, combined with the challenges that a No Deal Brexit would bring, have to suggest that whatever the result of the election, Johnson won’t be in Number 10 for the long term."

    Diagree. If Boris wins a working majority, he will stick through that full term, as he will have shown quite an ability to negotiate his way through the minefield.

    There will be the EU trade arrangements - however they come about - to put away. Trade deals with the US and elsewhere. I think he will try and reform several areas where his essentially socially liberal attitudes will come into play. An amnesty on those illegally in the UK for example.

    He will have shown he is more than prepared to take on old Tory duffers, so there will be a wholesale implementation of boundary reform, probably also changes to the size of the House of Commons and maybe even Lords reform to get his teeth into.

    We're overdue a recession. That will prove taxing to unravel from those shouting "It is entirely down to Brexit". But the one area I see him possibly resigning early as PM is if there is a second Scottish referendum and they choose to leave the Union. Boris will have invested his political capital in trying to hold us together. If he fails, I can see him taking the blame - and making a graceful resignation.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,278
    edited September 7
    I think the Tories are strong favourites to win the next GE because (1) now that they have purged their moderates they are united as a populist, hard right English nationalist party, ie they are the BXP; (2) despite, this a lot of voters on the centre right will vote for them to keep Corbyn out.

    The Tory electoral problem is longer term. Post-purge, the party’s MPs are going to be more right wing than they have ever been before. Johnson himself will be on the leftist fringes, certainly in terms of social attitudes. That won’t matter in a Brexit election, but it will matter a lot as the country deals with the consequences of the No Deal Johnson has to deliver. Hard right solutions are not going to be popular and at some point - when Corbyn has finally departed the scene - there will be a reckoning.

    However, I am not sure David is right about there being relatively little tactical voting at the next GE. People who want to stop No Deal will vote for whoever is best placed to prevent it. The issue is more that the anti-No Deal vote is heavily concentrated in certain parts of the country and will not deliver enough MPs to stop Johnson as a result.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 35,409
    Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,571
    edited September 7

    We're overdue a recession. That will prove taxing to unravel from those shouting "It is entirely down to Brexit". But the one area I see him possibly resigning early as PM is if there is a second Scottish referendum and they choose to leave the Union. Boris will have invested his political capital in trying to hold us together. If he fails, I can see him taking the blame - and making a graceful resignation.

    The word “graceful” applied to BoZo the Clown.

    That’s not just a PB first, that’s gotta be a world first.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 26,696

    Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....

    But that poll has Swinon's LibDems taking a tumble. If that trend continues, we might yet head towards a repeat of the Tory/Labour clash of 2017....
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 3,020

    Herdson’s lost it.

    Boris might well win a GE?

    Not with the Brexit Party in the high teens.

    And with the combined Con+Lab vote sub 55%, you can throw Uniform National Swing out the window too.

    There be carnage ahead lads. Man the lifeboats.

    As with the last election, the current crop of polls may well bear little relationship to the final result. If the Conservatives can squeeze the Brexit Party vote hard enough, and if what's left of it comes primarily from defecting Labour Leavers, then who knows? But I understand your scepticism.

    This GE, whenever it comes, is so hard to call that I think we can only make three predictions with any reasonable degree of certainty:

    1. The SNP will do very well
    2. The Brexit Party won't win a single seat
    3. Labour will have more than 200 MPs (the Tories probably will as well, but if the campaign goes horribly for them then who knows?)

    The ideal outcome of the election depends very much on one's own point of view, of course, but an anti-Tory majority with as weakened a Labour Party in it as possible (a 1983-type performance,) and a sizeable Lib Dem presence, would be best. Labour need to be so far short of a majority that they have to treat with Swinson as well as Sturgeon to get there, and the price the Lib Dems should enforce upon Labour (over and above preventing McDonnell from exploring the wilder hinterlands of socialist economic policy) is PR for Westminster. We must have an end to the public being forced to choose between increasingly polarised extremes at every election, before things properly spiral out of control. This should also mean a second referendum on Scottish independence, but I'm entirely relaxed about this prospect.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 7,308

    "If Johnson does win a Tory majority, that might well stick through to 2024 – but would he? The evidence from the last week, combined with the challenges that a No Deal Brexit would bring, have to suggest that whatever the result of the election, Johnson won’t be in Number 10 for the long term."

    Diagree. If Boris wins a working majority, he will stick through that full term, as he will have shown quite an ability to negotiate his way through the minefield.

    There will be the EU trade arrangements - however they come about - to put away. Trade deals with the US and elsewhere. I think he will try and reform several areas where his essentially socially liberal attitudes will come into play. An amnesty on those illegally in the UK for example.

    He will have shown he is more than prepared to take on old Tory duffers, so there will be a wholesale implementation of boundary reform, probably also changes to the size of the House of Commons and maybe even Lords reform to get his teeth into.

    We're overdue a recession. That will prove taxing to unravel from those shouting "It is entirely down to Brexit". But the one area I see him possibly resigning early as PM is if there is a second Scottish referendum and they choose to leave the Union. Boris will have invested his political capital in trying to hold us together. If he fails, I can see him taking the blame - and making a graceful resignation.

    Where in Boris's past is there any evidence of him "taking the blame" ?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,571

    Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....

    But that poll has Swinon's LibDems taking a tumble. If that trend continues, we might yet head towards a repeat of the Tory/Labour clash of 2017....
    I did try to warn them.

    Ed Davey would be wiping the floor with The Clown.

    This is no time for a shouty Vicky Pollard.
  • Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....



    That Survation shows the same as all the other polling we’ve seen - anti-No Deal parties just over 50%, the No Dealers just above. The anti-Corbyn, centre-right vote is baked in for the Tories now, they just need to squeeze the BXP, or do some kind of deal. How can they not, given they are now the BXP?

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 50,091


    Is it just me, or is the subtext "please do a deal or my boyfriend won't win a seat" ?
  • Another reason to bet on a Tory as next PM is the current one has publicly promised to break statute law in six weeks time in the most controversial, consequential and high profile way possible. He either will, won't, will then be forced to by a court or find he can't by automatic operation of law. In any of those four senarios he'll be in deep deep trouble. In terms of those MPs currently holding the whip Gove and Hunt are the best bets if the '22 decide they need to seperate the leadership from the premiership as a temporary emergency measure.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 50,091
    edited September 7
    delete

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,571
    Hague
    IDS
    Howard
    Cameron
    May
    Clown
    Gove?

    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser

    Anyone spotting a pattern here?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 26,696

    "If Johnson does win a Tory majority, that might well stick through to 2024 – but would he? The evidence from the last week, combined with the challenges that a No Deal Brexit would bring, have to suggest that whatever the result of the election, Johnson won’t be in Number 10 for the long term."

    Diagree. If Boris wins a working majority, he will stick through that full term, as he will have shown quite an ability to negotiate his way through the minefield.

    There will be the EU trade arrangements - however they come about - to put away. Trade deals with the US and elsewhere. I think he will try and reform several areas where his essentially socially liberal attitudes will come into play. An amnesty on those illegally in the UK for example.

    He will have shown he is more than prepared to take on old Tory duffers, so there will be a wholesale implementation of boundary reform, probably also changes to the size of the House of Commons and maybe even Lords reform to get his teeth into.

    We're overdue a recession. That will prove taxing to unravel from those shouting "It is entirely down to Brexit". But the one area I see him possibly resigning early as PM is if there is a second Scottish referendum and they choose to leave the Union. Boris will have invested his political capital in trying to hold us together. If he fails, I can see him taking the blame - and making a graceful resignation.

    Where in Boris's past is there any evidence of him "taking the blame" ?
    Maybe you'd like him to take the blame for Remain losing?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,081

    The anti-Corbyn, centre-right vote is baked in for the Tories now, they just need to squeeze the BXP, or do some kind of deal. How can they not, given they are now the BXP?

    OTOH you don't see CocaCola doing a deal with Pepsi
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,571

    The anti-Corbyn, centre-right vote is baked in for the Tories now, they just need to squeeze the BXP, or do some kind of deal. How can they not, given they are now the BXP?

    OTOH you don't see CocaCola doing a deal with Pepsi
    You know how cola drinks dissolve a tooth?

    Well, that’s what Con+Bxp are doing to the United Kingdom: rotting it from the inside out.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,278
    edited September 7

    The anti-Corbyn, centre-right vote is baked in for the Tories now, they just need to squeeze the BXP, or do some kind of deal. How can they not, given they are now the BXP?

    OTOH you don't see CocaCola doing a deal with Pepsi

    Ha, ha - fair point! I guess it’s the squeeze or nothing. Having turned hard right, the Tories just have to win the election. Otherwise, they will have burned down their entire party for nothing.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,626
    Think Mondays going to be fun.

    Also the Benn bill might be of use if you’ve run out of Kleenex - but that’s about it.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 3,020

    The anti-Corbyn, centre-right vote is baked in for the Tories now, they just need to squeeze the BXP, or do some kind of deal. How can they not, given they are now the BXP?

    OTOH you don't see CocaCola doing a deal with Pepsi
    Quite. The Conservatives are not functionally the same as the Brexit Party, even if they're closer together than they used to be - and they'll be perfectly well aware that a lot of already wavering centrist voters will run away if Johnson enters into a pact with Farage.

    And I'm absolutely sure that the former does not want the latter, and a small contingent of his troops, constantly breathing down his neck in the Commons. Any deal with the Brexit Party is bound to include the Tories letting them run unopposed in a selection of target seats (which is the only way the Brexit Party is going to get any MPs returned.)
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,833

    Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....

    But that poll has Swinon's LibDems taking a tumble. If that trend continues, we might yet head towards a repeat of the Tory/Labour clash of 2017....
    I did try to warn them.

    Ed Davey would be wiping the floor with The Clown.

    This is no time for a shouty Vicky Pollard.
    At least most of the nation is spared listening the shouty hectoring Scottish First Minister. There are only about 3 million who have to suffer it on a daily basis.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,651
    I agree with David that the Tories are slightly longer than they ought to be. But it’s hard to know when the change would happen after an election win.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129
    edited September 7
    That he hid away during the Tory leadership campaign was telling. I wonder if he’d try it in a general election, as May did?

    He did in Brecon. And that was an eminently winnable by-election, whatever the London media thought, and at the same time also a completely free hit given the circumstances as nobody was going to blame him for a defeat. As it was, he seriously upset all the activists by standing them up and seems to have shoved some waverers to the Yellows leading them to a more comfortable victory than expected (although the key was the collapse of the Labour red rosette on a donkey vote).

    If he's frit there, he might well be frit in the main event.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,549
    Good thinking DH,

    An extension will be the end of BoZo as premier, whether there is an election or not, and BoZo will have to be replaced with someone of different approach. It cannot be another No Dealer. Javid or Hunt for me. With Shadsys odds boost, 35/1 and 80/1.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,633

    Hague
    IDS
    Howard
    Cameron
    May
    Clown
    Gove?

    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser

    Anyone spotting a pattern here?

    Yes.

    All the Conservatives are/were either PM or Cabinet members and you forgot to name any Referendum SNP "Loser"
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,640

    Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....

    But that poll has Swinon's LibDems taking a tumble. If that trend continues, we might yet head towards a repeat of the Tory/Labour clash of 2017....
    The truth is...

    ...no-one knows.

    LibDems believe their "team" will soar during the election campaign. Labourites believe it will be a rerun of 2017. BJers think they'll suck the Brexit Party dry and land a 100 seat majority.

    No-one knows.

    My view is that an early election favours the Conservatives, but that they will lost 5-15 Remain seats to the LibDems (probably at the lower end of the range), and 8-10 seats to the SNP. I also think that the Alliance will do surprisingly well in Northern Ireland, as it allows people to vote against "a hard border" without crossing sectarian lines. (In Sinn Fein seats, a combination of wanting an MP that actually turns up, combined with a bit of Unionist tactical voting wouldn't surprise me in the least.)

    But these 15-20 losses will likely be made up by gains from Labour. I'd expect 20-30 gains there, resulting in a small overall Conservative majority.

    Go beyond the end of the year mind, and irrespective of Brexit, the UK and the world will likely have drifted into recession. That won't be a fun time, as the governing party, to ask for a mandate. And if it's in the context of "No Deal", it may be especially painful. (Not the recession, but the electoral response; the electorate rarely looks beyond the border.)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129

    Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....

    But that poll has Swinon's LibDems taking a tumble. If that trend continues, we might yet head towards a repeat of the Tory/Labour clash of 2017....
    I did try to warn them.

    Ed Davey would be wiping the floor with The Clown.

    This is no time for a shouty Vicky Pollard.
    Doesn't seem to be a problem for Nicola Sturgeon.

    *Grabs tinfoil hat and ducks*
  • Whilst the public are obviously aware of what is going on in a broader sense, and a clearly very unhappy, it will take a real political outrage to create the enviroment for a real populist backlash.

    I have my fingers crossed for remainer MPs telling Boris to delay Brexit, him refusing and them setting up a puppet government to thwart the UK's exit.

    The GE that follows will see the LD's ok but Labour will be utterly gutted out.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129
    Scott_P said:



    Is it just me, or is the subtext "please do a deal or my boyfriend won't win a seat" ?

    I thought he wasn't eligible?

    Or am I getting confused and Lord Ashcroft isn't her boyfriend?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,988
    Mr. Doethur, agree entirely.

    Boris Johnson hides rather than making a stand. We saw the same thing when he was Foreign Secretary and hid in Afghanistan rather than voting against a Heathrow expansion, only to resign a week or so later for fear David Davis might steal his imaginary crown as King of the Leavers.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,549
    ydoethur said:

    Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....

    But that poll has Swinon's LibDems taking a tumble. If that trend continues, we might yet head towards a repeat of the Tory/Labour clash of 2017....
    I did try to warn them.

    Ed Davey would be wiping the floor with The Clown.

    This is no time for a shouty Vicky Pollard.
    Doesn't seem to be a problem for Nicola Sturgeon.

    *Grabs tinfoil hat and ducks*
    Oi, teacher, leave those ducks alone!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,640

    Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....

    But that poll has Swinon's LibDems taking a tumble. If that trend continues, we might yet head towards a repeat of the Tory/Labour clash of 2017....
    I did try to warn them.

    Ed Davey would be wiping the floor with The Clown.

    This is no time for a shouty Vicky Pollard.
    The sole time I have seen Jo Swinson was in clips from the HoC debate last week, and I thought she was pretty good.

    Just a guess, but I suspect she'll improve over time, and that she'll do OK. Not super duper amazing, but OK.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,549
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:



    Is it just me, or is the subtext "please do a deal or my boyfriend won't win a seat" ?

    I thought he wasn't eligible?

    Or am I getting confused and Lord Ashcroft isn't her boyfriend?
    Richard Tice is her current paramour.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,640

    Hague
    IDS
    Howard
    Cameron
    May
    Clown
    Gove?

    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser

    Anyone spotting a pattern here?

    All political lives, unless they are cut off in midstream at a happy juncture, end in failure, because that is the nature of politics and of human affairs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129
    JackW said:

    Hague
    IDS
    Howard
    Cameron
    May
    Clown
    Gove?

    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser

    Anyone spotting a pattern here?

    Yes.

    All the Conservatives are/were either PM or Cabinet members and you forgot to name any Referendum SNP "Loser"
    Wilson - loser
    Salmond - mostly a loser (2011 being a truly dazzling exception)
    Swinney - loser
    Sturgeon - loser
    Robertson - loser

    I'm spotting a pattern here too...

    But then, as Enoch Powell noted with uncharacteristic accuracy, all political careers end in failure. It's just recently most of our politicians haven't had any success beforehand either.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,084
    Can somebody point out what the penalty in law would be for Boris ignoring the stop no deal bill? Is that set out in the legislation?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:



    Is it just me, or is the subtext "please do a deal or my boyfriend won't win a seat" ?

    I thought he wasn't eligible?

    Or am I getting confused and Lord Ashcroft isn't her boyfriend?
    Richard Tice is her current paramour.
    Ah. Right. So she just takes money from Ashcroft to write novels, she doesn't screw him in other ways?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 2,548
    The opposition are duty bound to keep Johnson in post for as long as possible giving him maximum exposure to the public. He has no majority let him stew in his own juice.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,640
    ydoethur said:

    JackW said:

    Hague
    IDS
    Howard
    Cameron
    May
    Clown
    Gove?

    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser

    Anyone spotting a pattern here?

    Yes.

    All the Conservatives are/were either PM or Cabinet members and you forgot to name any Referendum SNP "Loser"
    Wilson - loser
    Salmond - mostly a loser (2011 being a truly dazzling exception)
    Swinney - loser
    Sturgeon - loser
    Robertson - loser

    I'm spotting a pattern here too...

    But then, as Enoch Powell noted with uncharacteristic accuracy, all political careers end in failure. It's just recently most of our politicians haven't had any success beforehand either.
    Snap
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 954
    edited September 7
    It's much too soon to affirm that the Conservatives "retain a comfortable lead." A glorious piece of selective work there Mr Herdson. The latest poll, last night's Survation, had the Cons 5% ahead and polling sub-30% again. Johnson has endured the week from hell. Everything is unravelling and he's now in the job he lusted after but both clueless and powerless. It's not something which resonates well with voters. Viscerally I expect we're going to see him leaching support.

    The idea that the Conservatives are now united in Westminster is absolutely risible. Good grief, David. Are you living in the Outer Hebrides? They are ripping themselves apart. Listen to the whisperings and fury in the corridors, right through from Portcullis House to No.10 itself there is open revolt. Some Cabinet members are likely to break cover soon. So, I'm sorry, but with respect that's a complete joke. You've got nutcases like IDS openly encouraging Johnson to break the law and go to jail as a martyr, through to the normal tories suggesting Johnson might ditch that prize berk Cummings and get a deal with the EU.

    The next election will not solely be about Brexit. This will be especially true if, as is likely, it's after Oct 31st and an extension. Brexit bores most people outside of the headbangers and there are many, many, other issues that have historically always been to the fore and will be so again. This is all the more true in a long campaign.

    Johnson has looked flummoxed and flustered this week. Almost like he wants to give this up, which wouldn't surprise me. He's clearly not up to the job.

    When Brexit doesn't happen on Oct 31st, the BXP will hoover up most of Johnson's right wing support. He's already lost the One Nation tories with absolute fury. I expect the tories to bomb.

    Finally, parties which are disunited don't win elections. You think it's bad now? You wait until a campaign starts. They aren't just disunited. They are in open civil war.

    But apart from any of the above, take a step back. The Tories have been in power one way or another since 2010. There have been 3 elections in that time, only one of which they won outright and that was narrowly under Cameron.

    You may be right. But for all the reasons above I suggest the chances of an outright Conservative win are vanishingly narrow.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129
    timmo said:

    Can somebody point out what the penalty in law would be for Boris ignoring the stop no deal bill? Is that set out in the legislation?

    I would have thought the most obvious practical penalty would be him losing his seat at the next election, given where it is and the sort of electorate it has.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,392

    A word of warning to anyone thinking of staking cash on next Con leader: it’s not that long ago since one of the top names on that list was Ruth Davidson.

    I wonder what happened to her?

    #RuthForFM

    Ho ho.

    She was favourite at one point.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129
    nichomar said:

    The opposition are duty bound to keep Johnson in post for as long as possible giving him maximum exposure to the public. He has no majority let him stew in his own juice.

    I have to say though Nichomar, I don't hink opposition parties refusing an election is a good look. The Liberal Democrats will probably be OK because their supporters care above all about stopping Brexit and an election will make that harder. The SNP will be OK because they have a headlock on Scotland and don't stand candidates outside it.

    But Labour are going to face very awkward questions as to why they had a chance to turf out this shambles via an election and refused. And that's going to be their membership that get mad at them, not just their voters.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 2,434
    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....

    But that poll has Swinon's LibDems taking a tumble. If that trend continues, we might yet head towards a repeat of the Tory/Labour clash of 2017....
    The truth is...

    ...no-one knows.

    LibDems believe their "team" will soar during the election campaign. Labourites believe it will be a rerun of 2017. BJers think they'll suck the Brexit Party dry and land a 100 seat majority.

    No-one knows.

    My view is that an early election favours the Conservatives, but that they will lost 5-15 Remain seats to the LibDems (probably at the lower end of the range), and 8-10 seats to the SNP. I also think that the Alliance will do surprisingly well in Northern Ireland, as it allows people to vote against "a hard border" without crossing sectarian lines. (In Sinn Fein seats, a combination of wanting an MP that actually turns up, combined with a bit of Unionist tactical voting wouldn't surprise me in the least.)

    But these 15-20 losses will likely be made up by gains from Labour. I'd expect 20-30 gains there, resulting in a small overall Conservative majority.

    Go beyond the end of the year mind, and irrespective of Brexit, the UK and the world will likely have drifted into recession. That won't be a fun time, as the governing party, to ask for a mandate. And if it's in the context of "No Deal", it may be especially painful. (Not the recession, but the electoral response; the electorate rarely looks beyond the border.)
    That all makes sense. However, I'd foresee some of the 21 running successfully as independent Conservatives - Rory Stewart, for example, resulting in further cuts to a slim majority.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 2,434
    nichomar said:

    The opposition are duty bound to keep Johnson in post for as long as possible giving him maximum exposure to the public. He has no majority let him stew in his own juice.

    Yes, this is such fun, it really would be a shame to bring it to a premature conclusion.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,640

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....

    But that poll has Swinon's LibDems taking a tumble. If that trend continues, we might yet head towards a repeat of the Tory/Labour clash of 2017....
    The truth is...

    ...no-one knows.

    LibDems believe their "team" will soar during the election campaign. Labourites believe it will be a rerun of 2017. BJers think they'll suck the Brexit Party dry and land a 100 seat majority.

    No-one knows.

    My view is that an early election favours the Conservatives, but that they will lost 5-15 Remain seats to the LibDems (probably at the lower end of the range), and 8-10 seats to the SNP. I also think that the Alliance will do surprisingly well in Northern Ireland, as it allows people to vote against "a hard border" without crossing sectarian lines. (In Sinn Fein seats, a combination of wanting an MP that actually turns up, combined with a bit of Unionist tactical voting wouldn't surprise me in the least.)

    But these 15-20 losses will likely be made up by gains from Labour. I'd expect 20-30 gains there, resulting in a small overall Conservative majority.

    Go beyond the end of the year mind, and irrespective of Brexit, the UK and the world will likely have drifted into recession. That won't be a fun time, as the governing party, to ask for a mandate. And if it's in the context of "No Deal", it may be especially painful. (Not the recession, but the electoral response; the electorate rarely looks beyond the border.)
    That all makes sense. However, I'd foresee some of the 21 running successfully as independent Conservatives - Rory Stewart, for example, resulting in further cuts to a slim majority.
    And Kate Hoey will be out of a job, too.

    But if you look at the Conservative defectors (of all shapes and sizes), I can see maybe three or four who MIGHT hold their seats:

    - Rory Stewart, because my wife is as apolitical as they come, and she adores him. I suspect she's not alone
    - Heidi Allen, because it's a Remain seat, and she's relatively popular local MP
    - Sarah Wollaston, because the LDs will stand down, and the BXP will split the Leave vote

    Who else?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 35,409
    ydoethur said:

    nichomar said:

    The opposition are duty bound to keep Johnson in post for as long as possible giving him maximum exposure to the public. He has no majority let him stew in his own juice.

    I have to say though Nichomar, I don't hink opposition parties refusing an election is a good look. The Liberal Democrats will probably be OK because their supporters care above all about stopping Brexit and an election will make that harder. The SNP will be OK because they have a headlock on Scotland and don't stand candidates outside it.

    But Labour are going to face very awkward questions as to why they had a chance to turf out this shambles via an election and refused. And that's going to be their membership that get mad at them, not just their voters.
    I’m not sure “Labour stopped us having an Election” is a great message in the middle of an election.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129
    edited September 7
    TGOHF said:
    You can't vote to refuse an election and then demand the PM leave office to respect democracy.

    This is why I think Labour are acting stupidly. They look almost as inept as Dominic Cummings right now, and that is saying something.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,640
    TGOHF said:
    What Do We Want?
    AN ELECTION!
    When Do We Want It?
    NOT NOW!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,549
    edited September 7
    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....

    But that poll has Swinon's LibDems taking a tumble. If that trend continues, we might yet head towards a repeat of the Tory/Labour clash of 2017....
    The truth is...

    ...no-one knows.

    LibDems believe their "team" will soar during the election campaign. Labourites believe it will be a rerun of 2017. BJers think they'll suck the Brexit Party dry and land a 100 seat majority.

    No-one knows.

    My view is that an early election favours the Conservatives, but that they will lost 5-15 Remain seats to the LibDems (probably at the lower end of the range), and 8-10 seats to the SNP. I also think that the Alliance will do surprisingly well in Northern Ireland, as it allows people to vote against "a hard border" without crossing sectarian lines. (In Sinn Fein seats, a combination of wanting an MP that actually turns up, combined with a bit of Unionist tactical voting wouldn't surprise me in the least.)

    But these 15-20 losses will likely be made up by gains from Labour. I'd expect 20-30 gains there, resulting in a small overall Conservative majority.

    Go beyond the end of the year mind, and irrespective of Brexit, the UK and the world will likely have drifted into recession. That won't be a fun time, as the governing party, to ask for a mandate. And if it's in the context of "No Deal", it may be especially painful. (Not the recession, but the electoral response; the electorate rarely looks beyond the border.)
    My prediction, If GE this autumn.

    SNP sweep the boards in Scotland ala 2015 (One reason I voted Davey is Swinson is vulnerable to the SNP surge and may need to campaign in her constituency too much for a national campaign, though there is a leadership bonus)

    Alliance to pick up some NI seats

    Lib Dems and Independent Remainers to form a tacit or explicit coupon electoral team, with Greens and PC too. This is Swinsons strength. Multiple gains across Southern, and South-Western England.

    Brexit party nul points, and no formal alliance.

    Lab to lose a couple of dozen seats in England, and wipeout in Scotaland.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,351
    edited September 7

    Whilst the public are obviously aware of what is going on in a broader sense, and a clearly very unhappy, it will take a real political outrage to create the enviroment for a real populist backlash.

    I have my fingers crossed for remainer MPs telling Boris to delay Brexit, him refusing and them setting up a puppet government to thwart the UK's exit.

    The GE that follows will see the LD's ok but Labour will be utterly gutted out.

    Looks like you're pretty new here. Welcome.

    Anyway, you must be living in cloud cuckoo land. The Tories are in the process of ripping themselves apart. With a lying scumbag at the helm, their prospects dwindle by the day.

    NOM will be the result of the next GE when it happens either in November or the spring.

    The real value is in the Labour majority odds. That's the value bet.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,626
    Is there a bigger loser than a man who believed he was about to be President of Scotland because he’d listened too much to some “Canadian (non) Experts” but is now looking at a stretch in the nonce wing of HMP McHandsy.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,084
    Im still.looking for GE seat spreads..Any clues?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129

    ydoethur said:

    nichomar said:

    The opposition are duty bound to keep Johnson in post for as long as possible giving him maximum exposure to the public. He has no majority let him stew in his own juice.

    I have to say though Nichomar, I don't hink opposition parties refusing an election is a good look. The Liberal Democrats will probably be OK because their supporters care above all about stopping Brexit and an election will make that harder. The SNP will be OK because they have a headlock on Scotland and don't stand candidates outside it.

    But Labour are going to face very awkward questions as to why they had a chance to turf out this shambles via an election and refused. And that's going to be their membership that get mad at them, not just their voters.
    I’m not sure “Labour stopped us having an Election” is a great message in the middle of an election.....
    It wouldn't be. But narratives are set before elections. At the moment, we are in a situation where they can be portrayed as scared of the voters. Should they change their minds, and we hold an election, they can be portrayed as inept and vacillating, the more so given the truly bizarre nature of some of their policies.

    Of course, they may overcome this - they did before - but they seem determined to make life difficult for themselves.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,988
    Mr. 1000, there are a fair few Roman emperors who had good ends. Augustus, Vespasian, Trajan etc.

    But, despite his delusions, the PM is not Augustus.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129
    murali_s said:

    Whilst the public are obviously aware of what is going on in a broader sense, and a clearly very unhappy, it will take a real political outrage to create the enviroment for a real populist backlash.

    I have my fingers crossed for remainer MPs telling Boris to delay Brexit, him refusing and them setting up a puppet government to thwart the UK's exit.

    The GE that follows will see the LD's ok but Labour will be utterly gutted out.

    Looks like you're pretty new here. Welcome.

    Anyway, you must be living in cloud cuckoo land. The Tories are in the process of ripping themselves apart. With a lying scumbag at the helm, their prospects dwindle by the day.

    NOM will be the result of the next GE when it happens either in November or the spring.

    The real value is in the Labour majority odds. That's the value bet.
    In fairness, apart from the last line, we all thought that off Labour in 2017 with very rare exceptions.

    And we were all wrong.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 2,434
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....

    But that poll has Swinon's LibDems taking a tumble. If that trend continues, we might yet head towards a repeat of the Tory/Labour clash of 2017....
    The truth is...

    ...no-one knows.

    LibDems believe their "team" will soar during the election campaign. Labourites believe it will be a rerun of 2017. BJers think they'll suck the Brexit Party dry and land a 100 seat majority.

    No-one knows.

    My view is that an early election favours the Conservatives, but that they will lost 5-15 Remain seats to the LibDems (probably at the lower end of the range), and 8-10 seats to the SNP. I also think that the Alliance will do surprisingly well in Northern Ireland, as it allows people to vote against "a hard border" without crossing sectarian lines. (In Sinn Fein seats, a combination of wanting an MP that actually turns up, combined with a bit of Unionist tactical voting wouldn't surprise me in the least.)

    But these 15-20 losses will likely be made up by gains from Labour. I'd expect 20-30 gains there, resulting in a small overall Conservative majority.

    Go beyond the end of the year mind, and irrespective of Brexit, the UK and the world will likely have drifted into recession. That won't be a fun time, as the governing party, to ask for a mandate. And if it's in the context of "No Deal", it may be especially painful. (Not the recession, but the electoral response; the electorate rarely looks beyond the border.)
    That all makes sense. However, I'd foresee some of the 21 running successfully as independent Conservatives - Rory Stewart, for example, resulting in further cuts to a slim majority.
    And Kate Hoey will be out of a job, too.

    But if you look at the Conservative defectors (of all shapes and sizes), I can see maybe three or four who MIGHT hold their seats:

    - Rory Stewart, because my wife is as apolitical as they come, and she adores him. I suspect she's not alone
    - Heidi Allen, because it's a Remain seat, and she's relatively popular local MP
    - Sarah Wollaston, because the LDs will stand down, and the BXP will split the Leave vote

    Who else?
    Possible that the LDs may give them a free run. Even if they don't when you have a majority of c.10 even losing 3 is quite serious.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129

    Mr. 1000, there are a fair few Roman emperors who had good ends. Augustus, Vespasian, Trajan etc.

    But, despite his delusions, the PM is not Augustus.

    He's certainly not Caesared the moment.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,982
    FPT

    Even worse Stuart this one claims to be Scottish.

    Anabobazina said:

    » show previous quotes
    You really are funny.

    This quality of Unionist debate is bog standard in Scotland. They have zero policy platform to promote, so they just hurl preposterous abuse. Before Venezuela they were banging on about the Yugoslav war. Cuba is a perennial favourite.

    They think they’re being clever, but what they are really doing is betraying their profound hatred (often self-hatred). They really do think that Scotland is a basket case and that Scots are complete morons. And then they wonder why they’ve been out of power in Edinburgh for 12 years, with no end in sight.

    They are very comfortable with a high tax, high spend, puritanical, meddling and authoritarian Conservative government in London, but the prospect of vibrant, open, innovative, multi-party democracy in Edinburgh horrifies them.
  • ...the week from hell. Everything is unravelling...clueless and powerless...Viscerally I expect we're going to see him leaching support.

    ...absolutely risible...They are ripping themselves apart...fury in the corridors...nutcases...

    ....... I suggest the chances of an outright Conservative win are vanishingly narrow.

    Wow.

    They sound like at least a 20-1 shot.

    Despite your complete conviction in the VANISHINGLY NARROW chance of a Conservative majority I will give you the opportunity of putting your money where your mouth is.

    Happy to have anything up to £10k on a Tory majority at 5-1...which is incredibly skinny odds going by your post.

    Money to be held by trusted 3rd party.

  • timmo said:

    Can somebody point out what the penalty in law would be for Boris ignoring the stop no deal bill? Is that set out in the legislation?

    A good spanking from Matron?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,982
    ydoethur said:

    JackW said:

    Hague
    IDS
    Howard
    Cameron
    May
    Clown
    Gove?

    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser

    Anyone spotting a pattern here?

    Yes.

    All the Conservatives are/were either PM or Cabinet members and you forgot to name any Referendum SNP "Loser"
    Wilson - loser
    Salmond - mostly a loser (2011 being a truly dazzling exception)
    Swinney - loser
    Sturgeon - loser
    Robertson - loser

    I'm spotting a pattern here too...

    But then, as Enoch Powell noted with uncharacteristic accuracy, all political careers end in failure. It's just recently most of our politicians haven't had any success beforehand either.
    What did they lose then
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,940

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....

    But that poll has Swinon's LibDems taking a tumble. If that trend continues, we might yet head towards a repeat of the Tory/Labour clash of 2017....
    The truth is...

    ...no-one knows.

    LibDems believe their "team" will soar during the election campaign. Labourites believe it will be a rerun of 2017. BJers think they'll suck the Brexit Party dry and land a 100 seat majority.

    No-one knows.

    My view is that an early election favours the Conservatives, but that they will lost 5-15 Remain seats to the LibDems (probably at the lower end of the range), and 8-10 seats to the SNP. I also think that the Alliance will do surprisingly well in Northern Ireland, as it allows people to vote against "a hard border" without crossing sectarian lines. (In Sinn Fein seats, a combination of wanting an MP that actually turns up, combined with a bit of Unionist tactical voting wouldn't surprise me in the least.)

    But these 15-20 losses will likely be made up by gains from Labour. I'd expect 20-30 gains there, resulting in a small overall Conservative majority.

    Go beyond the end of the year mind, and irrespective of Brexit, the UK and the world will likely have drifted into recession. That won't be a fun time, as the governing party, to ask for a mandate. And if it's in the context of "No Deal", it may be especially painful. (Not the recession, but the electoral response; the electorate rarely looks beyond the border.)
    That all makes sense. However, I'd foresee some of the 21 running successfully as independent Conservatives - Rory Stewart, for example, resulting in further cuts to a slim majority.
    And Kate Hoey will be out of a job, too.

    But if you look at the Conservative defectors (of all shapes and sizes), I can see maybe three or four who MIGHT hold their seats:

    - Rory Stewart, because my wife is as apolitical as they come, and she adores him. I suspect she's not alone
    - Heidi Allen, because it's a Remain seat, and she's relatively popular local MP
    - Sarah Wollaston, because the LDs will stand down, and the BXP will split the Leave vote

    Who else?
    Possible that the LDs may give them a free run. Even if they don't when you have a majority of c.10 even losing 3 is quite serious.
    Isn't Wollaston LD now?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,982
    TGOHF said:

    Is there a bigger loser than a man who believed he was about to be President of Scotland because he’d listened too much to some “Canadian (non) Experts” but is now looking at a stretch in the nonce wing of HMP McHandsy.

    LOL, you must have ulcers carrying all that bile
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 2,548

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....

    But that poll has Swinon's LibDems taking a tumble. If that trend continues, we might yet head towards a repeat of the Tory/Labour clash of 2017....
    The truth is...

    ...no-one knows

    LibDems believe their "team" will soar during the election campaign. Labourites believe it will be a rerun of 2017. BJers think they'll suck the Brexit Party dry and land a 100 seat majority.

    No-one knows.

    My view is that an early election favours the Conservatives, but that they will lost 5-15 Remain seats to the LibDems (probably at the lower end of the range), and 8-10 seats to the SNP. I also think that the Alliance will do surprisingly well in Northern Ireland, as it allows people to vote against "a hard border" without crossing sectarian lines. (In Sinn Fein seats, a combination of wanting an MP that actually turns up, combined with a bit of Unionist tactical voting wouldn't surprise me in the least.)

    But these 15-20 losses will likely be made up by gains from Labour. I'd expect 20-30 gains there, resulting in a small overall Conservative majority.

    Go beyond the end of the year mind, and irrespective of Brexit, the UK and the world will likely have drifted into recession. That won't be a fun time, as the governing party, to ask for a mandate. And if it's in the context of "No Deal", it may be especially painful. (Not the recession, but the electoral response; the electorate rarely looks beyond the border.)
    That all makes sense. However, I'd foresee some of the 21 running successfully as independent Conservatives - Rory Stewart, for example, resulting in further cuts to a slim majority.
    And Kate Hoey will be out of a job, too.

    But if you look at the Conservative defectors (of all shapes and sizes), I can see maybe three or four who MIGHT hold their seats:

    - Rory Stewart, because my wife is as apolitical as they come, and she adores him. I suspect she's not alone
    - Heidi Allen, because it's a Remain seat, and she's relatively popular local MP
    - Sarah Wollaston, because the LDs will stand down, and the BXP will split the Leave vote

    Who else?
    Possible that the LDs may give them a free run. Even if they don't when you have a majority of c.10 even losing 3 is quite serious.
    Isn't Wollaston LD now?
    Yes as probably Allen will be in the near future plus one or two more.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    JackW said:

    Hague
    IDS
    Howard
    Cameron
    May
    Clown
    Gove?

    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser
    Loser

    Anyone spotting a pattern here?

    Yes.

    All the Conservatives are/were either PM or Cabinet members and you forgot to name any Referendum SNP "Loser"
    Wilson - loser
    Salmond - mostly a loser (2011 being a truly dazzling exception)
    Swinney - loser
    Sturgeon - loser
    Robertson - loser

    I'm spotting a pattern here too...

    But then, as Enoch Powell noted with uncharacteristic accuracy, all political careers end in failure. It's just recently most of our politicians haven't had any success beforehand either.
    What did they lose then
    Elections. Oh, and Salmond and Sturgeon lost a referendum apiece as well.

    Of course, it depends a bit on how you define 'loser.' Sturgeon lost Salmond's hard earned majority ((c) TSE) but she did still have by far the most seats.

    Mind you, I used to be a Plaid voter and they've never won anything at all.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,988
    Mr. Doethur, *sighs*

    If I were to pun, I'd probably prefer:

    "The lie is cast!"
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,626
    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    Is there a bigger loser than a man who believed he was about to be President of Scotland because he’d listened too much to some “Canadian (non) Experts” but is now looking at a stretch in the nonce wing of HMP McHandsy.

    LOL, you must have ulcers carrying all that bile
    Not really Malcom - just enjoying the demise of a corpulent grifter.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,571
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Could be the best cure? As leader of the largest party Boris would be the most powerful Leader of the Opposition in British history, he could harry Corbyn or any other PM every step of the way as they betray the will of the people facing one of the weakest governments in British history made of multiple parties with little in common but stopping Brexit, no responsibilities, a guaranteed big poll lead. Assuming the extend again Bill gets Royal Assent and the general election vote is defeated on Monday what is not to like?

    He would have gone from PM to not PM with no transition, no agreed future relationship with his party, no nothing. Cliff edge. This is NOT what the membership voted for and it was only a few weeks ago that they filled in their ballot papers. If the intention was to leave Downing St in such a chaotic disorganized manner this should have been made clear to the electorate at the time. In short, he has no mandate to resign. It would be a betrayal of democracy.
    He would be a hero with his party and Leavers who refused to bow down to the traitor diehard Remainer MPs in Parliament.

    He could then lead phase 2 of the war to deliver Brexit from opposition through to the next election on a commitment to Leave the EU Deal or No Deal as soon as he gets a majority
    Hero

    Bow down

    Traitor

    Diehard

    Phase 2 of the war

    Bonkers

    Stark

    Raving

    Bonkers
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,640
    edited September 7

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The truth is...

    ...no-one knows.

    LibDems believe their "team" will soar during the election campaign. Labourites believe it will be a rerun of 2017. BJers think they'll suck the Brexit Party dry and land a 100 seat majority.

    No-one knows.

    My view is that an early election favours the Conservatives, but that they will lost 5-15 Remain seats to the LibDems (probably at the lower end of the range), and 8-10 seats to the SNP. I also think that the Alliance will do surprisingly well in Northern Ireland, as it allows people to vote against "a hard border" without crossing sectarian lines. (In Sinn Fein seats, a combination of wanting an MP that actually turns up, combined with a bit of Unionist tactical voting wouldn't surprise me in the least.)

    But these 15-20 losses will likely be made up by gains from Labour. I'd expect 20-30 gains there, resulting in a small overall Conservative majority.

    Go beyond the end of the year mind, and irrespective of Brexit, the UK and the world will likely have drifted into recession. That won't be a fun time, as the governing party, to ask for a mandate. And if it's in the context of "No Deal", it may be especially painful. (Not the recession, but the electoral response; the electorate rarely looks beyond the border.)

    That all makes sense. However, I'd foresee some of the 21 running successfully as independent Conservatives - Rory Stewart, for example, resulting in further cuts to a slim majority.
    And Kate Hoey will be out of a job, too.

    But if you look at the Conservative defectors (of all shapes and sizes), I can see maybe three or four who MIGHT hold their seats:

    - Rory Stewart, because my wife is as apolitical as they come, and she adores him. I suspect she's not alone
    - Heidi Allen, because it's a Remain seat, and she's relatively popular local MP
    - Sarah Wollaston, because the LDs will stand down, and the BXP will split the Leave vote

    Who else?
    Possible that the LDs may give them a free run. Even if they don't when you have a majority of c.10 even losing 3 is quite serious.
    But it's still three at a stretch.

    It's got to be a Remain seat. It's got to be a popular local MP. It's got to have a good sized LD (and possibly Lab) vote to squeeze.

    So, if Heidi Allen takes 25% of the Conservative vote, 15% of the Labour vote, and all the LibDem vote she's re-elected. That sounds plausible, if hardly a massively odds on bet.

    I can make a similar case for SarahW, and maybe Justine Greening and Stephen Hammond at a push. But realistically, it's four of the former Tory MPs. Maybe five in extremis.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,640

    ...the week from hell. Everything is unravelling...clueless and powerless...Viscerally I expect we're going to see him leaching support.

    ...absolutely risible...They are ripping themselves apart...fury in the corridors...nutcases...

    ....... I suggest the chances of an outright Conservative win are vanishingly narrow.

    Wow.

    They sound like at least a 20-1 shot.

    Despite your complete conviction in the VANISHINGLY NARROW chance of a Conservative majority I will give you the opportunity of putting your money where your mouth is.

    Happy to have anything up to £10k on a Tory majority at 5-1...which is incredibly skinny odds going by your post.

    Money to be held by trusted 3rd party.

    Ummm: I'll take evens.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 954
    edited September 7
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....

    But that poll has Swinon's LibDems taking a tumble. If that trend continues, we might yet head towards a repeat of the Tory/Labour clash of 2017....
    The truth is...

    ...no-one knows.

    LibDems believe their "team" will soar during the election campaign. Labourites believe it will be a rerun of 2017. BJers think they'll suck the Brexit Party dry and land a 100 seat majority.

    No-one knows.

    )
    That all makes sense. However, I'd foresee some of the 21 running successfully as independent Conservatives - Rory Stewart, for example, resulting in further cuts to a slim majority.
    And Kate Hoey will be out of a job, too.


    - Rory Stewart, because my wife is as apolitical as they come, and she adores him. I suspect she's not alone

    - Sarah Wollaston, because the LDs will stand down, and the BXP will split the Leave vote

    Who else?
    They won't need to stand down, Robert. They'll be campaigning for her. Sarah joined the LibDems on the 14th August.

    Kate Hoey is standing down. I agree about Rory. I know lots of people who like him. One day, when the Conservative party re-emerges from the ashes he might be the one to bring them back to sanity.

    I don't disagree with much of your lengthier post (I usually find myself agreeing with you!) and as you say, no one knows. I think you might be underestimating how will the LibDems will do in London and the south. Their unequivocal Bollox to Brexit / Remain stance is going to make substantial inroads in Remain areas.

    I am also far from convinced that Cummings will gain traction with 'white working class man' in the north. The memes of JRM and Johnson just don't work with Labour heartlands and we had all this bs with Theresa May. Do you remember that fleeting moment when we heard that 'even the Labour heartlands aren't safe':

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/27/theresa-may-to-lay-bare-ambition-to-capture-labour-heartlands

    In fact, she lost her majority.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,081
    edited September 7
    I don't really understand why the political consensus seems to be "let Boris stew for a bit then have an election" as opposed to "just form a government and deliver brexit [*]".

    The voters don't seem *hugely* keen on an election. It's not clear that it'll actual solve anything - we're on the second parliament since Brexit and the third Tory Prime Minister and no closer to resolving the Tory Party's inherent contradictions - and lots of them seem to want Brexit settled first.

    The opposition have a majority of 20, many of whom don't even have a party let alone a winnable seat. LDs and ex-Cons may not particularly like Corbyn or Boris, but they have no better option than Boris after an election, and a situation like the current one is literally the best they can hope for. Nearly everyone would agree on the way forward (Norway PD+Referendum), the EU would agree, and with a couple of kamikaze exceptions like Hoey the Labour people who aren't that keen on the approach are the people who might lose their seats to Con or BXP in an immediate Brexit election.

    The ex-Cons would love the opportunity to stick it to Boris, and if they can get Brexit out of the way they have a good chance of getting their party back under a new leader.

    Corbyn may or may not to persuade everyone else to let him be PM, but either way he gets to look sensible and statesman-like and detoxify himself, and shake everything up before holding an election that may not necessarily work out to his advantage.

    Why isn't this the obvious way forward? I think people's thinking is still stuck where it was when Boris's majority was approximately zero, and the narrative has yet to catch up with how everything changed when Boris decided to try peeling off his face and feeding it to the dogs.

    [*] Subject to a confirmatory referendum, terms and conditions may apply
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129

    ...the week from hell. Everything is unravelling...clueless and powerless...Viscerally I expect we're going to see him leaching support.

    ...absolutely risible...They are ripping themselves apart...fury in the corridors...nutcases...

    ....... I suggest the chances of an outright Conservative win are vanishingly narrow.

    Wow.

    They sound like at least a 20-1 shot.

    Despite your complete conviction in the VANISHINGLY NARROW chance of a Conservative majority I will give you the opportunity of putting your money where your mouth is.

    Happy to have anything up to £10k on a Tory majority at 5-1...which is incredibly skinny odds going by your post.

    Money to be held by trusted 3rd party.

    The Tories should be ten thousand to one.

    We right now have a party led by a pair of inept posh boys - one in Parliament and one appointed because of being bezzy mates - running a third rate cabal of hopelessly incompetent members with an ideology seemingly determined to take us back to the 1950s, noted for their institutionalised racism, incapable of forming a coherent sentence, ruthlessly kicking all of their opponents out, rumoured to have links to Russia, constitutionally incapable of telling the truth, and putting forward a pack of populist lies based on their own drunken prejudices and outmoded principles in a blatant attempt to bribe the electorate into voting for them.

    And because Labour are in this state, somehow the Tories sitll lead the polls.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,780

    A word of warning to anyone thinking of staking cash on next Con leader: it’s not that long ago since one of the top names on that list was Ruth Davidson.

    I wonder what happened to her?

    #RuthForFM

    Ho ho.

    I wouldn't throw those receipts away just yet. An entirely possible scenario now is that Ruth decides it is better for her to be out of Holyrood, not overshadowing her successor and stands for Westminster instead. If she is elected there the odds on her will fall sharply. She will get nowhere with Boris as leader of course but as David has pointed out that may not be forever.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129
    edited September 7
    I was playing for a civic service last night. Amanda Milling was there and at the bunfight afterwards I noticed she looked haggard.

    I tactfully passed her a plate of sandwiches and kept schtum. After all, she did vote for the WA.

    If the next election is six or more months away, I wonder how many other MPs will conclude like Jo Johnson that this just isn't worth it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,640
    ydoethur said:

    ...the week from hell. Everything is unravelling...clueless and powerless...Viscerally I expect we're going to see him leaching support.

    ...absolutely risible...They are ripping themselves apart...fury in the corridors...nutcases...

    ....... I suggest the chances of an outright Conservative win are vanishingly narrow.

    Wow.

    They sound like at least a 20-1 shot.

    Despite your complete conviction in the VANISHINGLY NARROW chance of a Conservative majority I will give you the opportunity of putting your money where your mouth is.

    Happy to have anything up to £10k on a Tory majority at 5-1...which is incredibly skinny odds going by your post.

    Money to be held by trusted 3rd party.

    The Tories should be ten thousand to one.

    We right now have a party led by a pair of inept posh boys - one in Parliament and one appointed because of being bezzy mates - running a third rate cabal of hopelessly incompetent members with an ideology seemingly determined to take us back to the 1950s, noted for their institutionalised racism, incapable of forming a coherent sentence, ruthlessly kicking all of their opponents out, rumoured to have links to Russia, constitutionally incapable of telling the truth, and putting forward a pack of populist lies based on their own drunken prejudices and outmoded principles in a blatant attempt to bribe the electorate into voting for them.

    And because Labour are in this state, somehow the Tories sitll lead the polls.
    I hope you don't teach your students about probability.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 954
    edited September 7

    ...the week from hell. Everything is unravelling...clueless and powerless...Viscerally I expect we're going to see him leaching support.

    ...absolutely risible...They are ripping themselves apart...fury in the corridors...nutcases...

    ....... I suggest the chances of an outright Conservative win are vanishingly narrow.


    Money to be held by trusted 3rd party.

    Yeah right. I've got my bets out with proper companies, thanks, with some great odds and nice arbing.

    I wouldn't want any money on an outright Conservative win at anything shorter than 15-1. But, as I say, I'm not betting with an unknown figure on here. Ta.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 50,091

    I don't really understand why the political consensus seems to be "let Boris stew for a bit then have an election" as opposed to "just form a government and deliver brexit [*]".

    BoZo resigns, Corbyn takes over, tables WA4 and we leave on Oct 31st

    Jezza is a Brexit hero and BoZo is a footnote
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129
    edited September 7
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ...the week from hell. Everything is unravelling...clueless and powerless...Viscerally I expect we're going to see him leaching support.

    ...absolutely risible...They are ripping themselves apart...fury in the corridors...nutcases...

    ....... I suggest the chances of an outright Conservative win are vanishingly narrow.

    Wow.

    They sound like at least a 20-1 shot.

    Despite your complete conviction in the VANISHINGLY NARROW chance of a Conservative majority I will give you the opportunity of putting your money where your mouth is.

    Happy to have anything up to £10k on a Tory majority at 5-1...which is incredibly skinny odds going by your post.

    Money to be held by trusted 3rd party.

    The Tories should be ten thousand to one.

    We right now have a party led by a pair of inept posh boys - one in Parliament and one appointed because of being bezzy mates - running a third rate cabal of hopelessly incompetent members with an ideology seemingly determined to take us back to the 1950s, noted for their institutionalised racism, incapable of forming a coherent sentence, ruthlessly kicking all of their opponents out, rumoured to have links to Russia, constitutionally incapable of telling the truth, and putting forward a pack of populist lies based on their own drunken prejudices and outmoded principles in a blatant attempt to bribe the electorate into voting for them.

    And because Labour are in this state, somehow the Tories sitll lead the polls.
    I hope you don't teach your students about probability.
    I was once asked if I could teach A-level maths. I got my whiteboard pen out and proved 2+2 can equal 5 in the right circumstances.

    Funnily enough, nobody's asked me since.

    But on a serious point, no government in this state should have even a faint chance of re-election. Labour members, I hope you're happy with how electing a geriatric populist nutter with the integrity of Horatio Bottomley has turned out.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 954
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ...the week from hell. Everything is unravelling...clueless and powerless...Viscerally I expect we're going to see him leaching support.

    ...absolutely risible...They are ripping themselves apart...fury in the corridors...nutcases...

    ....... I suggest the chances of an outright Conservative win are vanishingly narrow.

    Wow.

    They sound like at least a 20-1 shot.

    Despite your complete conviction in the VANISHINGLY NARROW chance of a Conservative majority I will give you the opportunity of putting your money where your mouth is.

    Happy to have anything up to £10k on a Tory majority at 5-1...which is incredibly skinny odds going by your post.

    Money to be held by trusted 3rd party.

    The Tories should be ten thousand to one.

    We right now have a party led by a pair of inept posh boys - one in Parliament and one appointed because of being bezzy mates - running a third rate cabal of hopelessly incompetent members with an ideology seemingly determined to take us back to the 1950s, noted for their institutionalised racism, incapable of forming a coherent sentence, ruthlessly kicking all of their opponents out, rumoured to have links to Russia, constitutionally incapable of telling the truth, and putting forward a pack of populist lies based on their own drunken prejudices and outmoded principles in a blatant attempt to bribe the electorate into voting for them.

    And because Labour are in this state, somehow the Tories sitll lead the polls.
    I hope you don't teach your students about probability.
    I think he was using hyperbole ;)

    As mentioned, I wouldn't want shorter than about 15-1 on an outright tory win and even that's probably being generous.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 954
    On a separate note, it's just possible the United Opposition might manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I do think they need to be extremely careful.

    Johnson lost the battle when Parliament returned. Cummings and him are quite good at whipping up the media attention when no-one is actually scrutinising them, so 5 weeks prorogation leaves me nervous.

    Additionally I don't trust Johnson as far as I can spit. He might yet try to dodge the law. We know from his past that he's prepared to play fast and loose with it.

    I would much prefer the Opposition not to play games themselves. Bite the Bullet and install a caretaker PM to bring us through to November. I realise the risks of the meme: being seen as the ones extending Art 50. But in my opinion there's still a slight danger of a No Deal crash out if Johnson is left in No.10.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,851
    edited September 7
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,640

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ...the week from hell. Everything is unravelling...clueless and powerless...Viscerally I expect we're going to see him leaching support.

    ...absolutely risible...They are ripping themselves apart...fury in the corridors...nutcases...

    ....... I suggest the chances of an outright Conservative win are vanishingly narrow.

    Wow.

    They sound like at least a 20-1 shot.

    Despite your complete conviction in the VANISHINGLY NARROW chance of a Conservative majority I will give you the opportunity of putting your money where your mouth is.

    Happy to have anything up to £10k on a Tory majority at 5-1...which is incredibly skinny odds going by your post.

    Money to be held by trusted 3rd party.

    The Tories should be ten thousand to one.

    We right now have a party led by a pair of inept posh boys - one in Parliament and one appointed because of being bezzy mates - running a third rate cabal of hopelessly incompetent members with an ideology seemingly determined to take us back to the 1950s, noted for their institutionalised racism, incapable of forming a coherent sentence, ruthlessly kicking all of their opponents out, rumoured to have links to Russia, constitutionally incapable of telling the truth, and putting forward a pack of populist lies based on their own drunken prejudices and outmoded principles in a blatant attempt to bribe the electorate into voting for them.

    And because Labour are in this state, somehow the Tories sitll lead the polls.
    I hope you don't teach your students about probability.
    I think he was using hyperbole ;)

    As mentioned, I wouldn't want shorter than about 15-1 on an outright tory win and even that's probably being generous.
    I would happily back the Tories at anything better than about evens. 15-1? There are simply too many imponderables that could make that seem like too generous a price.

    Simply, the Tories lead in the polls, and it's entirely possible the Remain vote will be split.

    But, as I said, who knows? If the UK enters a recession this year, 15-1 might look skinny.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,988
    F1: interested in what others think about this.

    With a third the odds top 2 (each way), Hamilton's 4.5 for fastest qualifier. Bottas is 21.

    The new Mercedes engine seems pretty tasty and if they can run it full tilt, unlike last time, (when Hamilton was still just a few thousandths off Vettel), surely they have a decent shot of top 2?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,640
    The Alliance? Didn't they become the Literal Democrats or something?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,851
    DavidL said:

    . An entirely possible scenario now is that Ruth decides it is better for her to be out of Holyrood, not overshadowing her successor and stands for Westminster instead.

    One would only be able to applaud Ruth's selflessness in such a scenario.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,213

    On a separate note, it's just possible the United Opposition might manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I do think they need to be extremely careful.

    Johnson lost the battle when Parliament returned. Cummings and him are quite good at whipping up the media attention when no-one is actually scrutinising them, so 5 weeks prorogation leaves me nervous.

    Additionally I don't trust Johnson as far as I can spit. He might yet try to dodge the law. We know from his past that he's prepared to play fast and loose with it.

    I would much prefer the Opposition not to play games themselves. Bite the Bullet and install a caretaker PM to bring us through to November. I realise the risks of the meme: being seen as the ones extending Art 50. But in my opinion there's still a slight danger of a No Deal crash out if Johnson is left in No.10.

    Well, for one thing if the EU is asked for an extension it will want to see some evidence that there is going to be an election, or something else that will break the deadlock, considering that the last six months have been completely wasted.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 4,323
    DavidL said:

    A word of warning to anyone thinking of staking cash on next Con leader: it’s not that long ago since one of the top names on that list was Ruth Davidson.

    I wonder what happened to her?

    #RuthForFM

    Ho ho.

    I wouldn't throw those receipts away just yet. An entirely possible scenario now is that Ruth decides it is better for her to be out of Holyrood, not overshadowing her successor and stands for Westminster instead. If she is elected there the odds on her will fall sharply. She will get nowhere with Boris as leader of course but as David has pointed out that may not be forever.
    Indeed. But if she is aiming at the heights - both PM and one of the great offices such as Home Sec - she would need to be in an English seat would she not? EVEL and all that - not so much directly but because of the possible perceived implication that the PM 'must' be English in the sense of holding an English constituency seat (ie to be somehow valid). Also, what do you think about perceptions of her accent and intonation? To sound Scots is not always a good thing in some political arenas. I find such things difficult to detect myself so it'd be interesting what you think.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,081
    Scott_P said:


    BoZo resigns, Corbyn takes over, tables WA4 and we leave on Oct 31st

    Jezza is a Brexit hero and BoZo is a footnote

    lol, but no, I think more like

    BoZo resigns or they VONC him, Corbyn takes over (or Ken Clarke or Rory Stewart or whoever, with Corbyn having some kind of "be responsible for something important and ostentatiously don't break it" position), rejig the PD to be more Norway-ish, pass that with the existing WA it subject to a referendum.

    Referendum in January, out or revoke by Jan 31st. Election after that or not, see how it goes.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,982

    ydoethur said:

    nichomar said:

    The opposition are duty bound to keep Johnson in post for as long as possible giving him maximum exposure to the public. He has no majority let him stew in his own juice.

    I have to say though Nichomar, I don't hink opposition parties refusing an election is a good look. The Liberal Democrats will probably be OK because their supporters care above all about stopping Brexit and an election will make that harder. The SNP will be OK because they have a headlock on Scotland and don't stand candidates outside it.

    But Labour are going to face very awkward questions as to why they had a chance to turf out this shambles via an election and refused. And that's going to be their membership that get mad at them, not just their voters.
    I’m not sure “Labour stopped us having an Election” is a great message in the middle of an election.....
    starting to panic
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,780
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ...the week from hell. Everything is unravelling...clueless and powerless...Viscerally I expect we're going to see him leaching support.

    ...absolutely risible...They are ripping themselves apart...fury in the corridors...nutcases...

    ....... I suggest the chances of an outright Conservative win are vanishingly narrow.

    Wow.

    They sound like at least a 20-1 shot.

    Despite your complete conviction in the VANISHINGLY NARROW chance of a Conservative majority I will give you the opportunity of putting your money where your mouth is.

    Happy to have anything up to £10k on a Tory majority at 5-1...which is incredibly skinny odds going by your post.

    Money to be held by trusted 3rd party.

    The Tories should be ten thousand to one.

    We right now have a party led by a pair of inept posh boys - one in Parliament and one appointed because of being bezzy mates - running a third rate cabal of hopelessly incompetent members with an ideology seemingly determined to take us back to the 1950s, noted for their institutionalised racism, incapable of forming a coherent sentence, ruthlessly kicking all of their opponents out, rumoured to have links to Russia, constitutionally incapable of telling the truth, and putting forward a pack of populist lies based on their own drunken prejudices and outmoded principles in a blatant attempt to bribe the electorate into voting for them.

    And because Labour are in this state, somehow the Tories sitll lead the polls.
    I hope you don't teach your students about probability.
    I think he was using hyperbole ;)

    As mentioned, I wouldn't want shorter than about 15-1 on an outright tory win and even that's probably being generous.
    I would happily back the Tories at anything better than about evens. 15-1? There are simply too many imponderables that could make that seem like too generous a price.

    Simply, the Tories lead in the polls, and it's entirely possible the Remain vote will be split.

    But, as I said, who knows? If the UK enters a recession this year, 15-1 might look skinny.
    A recession with a 4.1% real terms increase in public spending? That would take a bit of doing. Our economy risks becoming even more unbalanced with yet more debt and excess demand, set up to fall even harder at some future date but I think Javid has bought off that particular risk short of a complete Brexit melt down.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,780

    DavidL said:

    . An entirely possible scenario now is that Ruth decides it is better for her to be out of Holyrood, not overshadowing her successor and stands for Westminster instead.

    One would only be able to applaud Ruth's selflessness in such a scenario.
    Indeed.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,549
    Incidentally, the photo in the header interests me. Larry has his ears folded back and looks annoyed, and his slight crouch matches. That is not a cat wanting attention by jumping on the desk. Larry has been placed there by someone for the photo, and is none too ppleased with it.
This discussion has been closed.