Option 1. BoZo goes to jail. He may be a hero and a martyr, but, and this is the crucial point, he doesn't get to be World King in jail. Unlike Mandela, he will not be voted President for life upon release.
Option 2. He resigns. The Tories elected him because they thought he was their best shot of avoiding Corbyn. After losing every vote as PM, his last defining act will be to make Corbyn PM.
I can't at the moment see how either of those scenarios is a win, but I am not a 4D chess expert...
kle4 says "On the off-chance BXP stood down, at least in some areas, who would they then vote for?"
BXP would only stand down if the CP agrees to doing similarly in other constituencies. How would that conversation go with the Tory candidates in those constituencies? This "pact" is not gong to happen.
And even if it did, a majority in the Commons would rely on a CP/BXT coalition - no chance.
If Brexit doens`t happen the Tory Party is finished. Simple as that. Those of you who are Tories need to hope that Dom C has something up his sleeve.
Agree with the header and I am strongly attracted to Michael Gove. He appears to me to be the person who best combines Leave credentials with competence.
The whole issue seems a nonsense, a convenient peg for both sides to say no on, politics rather anything genuine, then everyone shuts down discussion because its NI and no one is allowed to have an opinion on it as they just dont get it.
That is an implausable time scale. If Corbyn or ANO took over mid October it would take all of the time under the extension to obtain a formal ageement with the EU, then the HOC needs legislation enabling the referendum, then the wording needs to be agreed, then the campaign.
Late Spring, early Summer is a minimum for the actual vote and would a cobbled together HOC hold together and what domestic policy agenda could be agreed
They can get working on the referendum wording immediately, in parallel with any discussions with the EU. The Political Declaration is mostly there for domestic British political purposes; What the EU are really bothered about is the WA, which is already consistent with Norway, and all the detailed discussion about what happens afterwards is done during the transition period. So if the UK parliament agrees on what it agrees on, and the EU is happy with the general direction, you could literally do it in a day.
So parliament can pass the WA+referendum bill by the end of October, tell the Electoral Commission to get all its preparations done in November (change legislation for this if necessary), campaigns formally agreed in December, campaign starts right after the New Year, vote late Jan, out (or revoke) end Jan.
I think it's actually easier if you do it fast, because as you say if you allow it to stretch out you start arguing about the domestic agenda.
It will not happen. You are putting forward your hoped for resolution but in practice the events from the 19th to 31st October will overwhelm your ideas
Parliament is self-governing. If the PM refuses to obey then they can VONC him and choose a new PM.
If the PM breaks the law they can jail him.
Maybe a good defence lawyer could work on mitigating circumstance. You know have him sectioned for mental illness or paroled for aggravation (Cummings).
Before Charles jumps on me, that's (mostly) in jest. I know mental ill health up close.
More seriously, I do think Johnson is losing it. He's becoming flummoxed and both in his press conference and yesterday he was quite 'odd.' I think he has always lusted after the job but never really understood it nor what it entails. A little like his sense of entitlement towards getting a first, which he didn't, he seems indignant that anyone should scrutinise the manifest bullshit he's full of.
As many of us pointed out on here ad nauseam, he's the least suitable person to be tory Prime Minister of a generation.
I'm less bothered by the delaying of the election than I am by the opposition allowing the prorogation to happen. This is now totally unnecessary and will be followed by an unnecessary Queen's Speech.
Would it make sense for Boris to use the Benn Act as a reason for saying that his negotiation hands are tied, so the best he can do is bring back TMs deal to the Commons to test current opinion? It remains the only deal in town and he has promised not to ask for an extension.
He has no wish to do so. If he meant what he said about do or die hed consider it, but hes trashed it completely. He does not want to be out do or die, he only wants out in specific ways, notwithstanding he voted for the damn thing.
It's the same as all those phones willing to do anything to stop no deal except vote for a deal. They are willing to do anything so long as it leads to remain.
Didn't I read somewhere that he is required to bring May's deal back to the Commons under the Kinnock amendment?
Can somebody point out what the penalty in law would be for Boris ignoring the stop no deal bill? Is that set out in the legislation?
IMO it's the one thing that would make a majority of MPs accept Corbyn's caretaker offer. A PM who openly refuses to obey the law will be seen even by a number of Tories as worse than a brief period of constrained left-wingery.
What if Johnson tries to extend prorogation after next week? Who will come after him then?
Do it! As noted last night he thinks he'll win a GE if we are out, so the DUP pulling support is surely not a threat to him.
has anyone noticed that when you about 40 down on the reliable numbers, the 10 votes of the worlds' most duplicitous party (DUP, in a close contest with Sinn Fein) are not worth having, especially as they never had them when they were actually needed.
Exactly. Which explains why Johnson is kite flying an NI-only backstop. DUP now irrelevant.
In his piece David Herdson underplays the impact of The Brexit Party.
I know many people who, unlike me, voted for Brexit and they all, without exception, will vote for The Brexit Party rather than the Tories. Farage is their god.
I cannot understand how the Tories can be best priced 1/2 to win most seats at next GE (let alone a majority).
Surely the 3/1 on Labour in the same market is value??
On the off chance BXP stood down, at least in some areas, who would then vote for?
I dont think they will, but I am curious given the tory strategy relies on it.
If there's an October election I think that there's a good possibility of BXP not fighting a lot of seats. Then Stocky's friends would probably vote for Bozzer.
When I was marking over the summer, the Principal Examiner for the module couldn't spell 'incoherent,' couldn't read timetables and couldn't fill in simple forms correctly. (Her marks were also all over the place but I think that was because she had never marked before.)
She demonstrated a greater level of basic competence than this government.
That is an implausable time scale. If Corbyn or ANO took over mid October it would take all of the time under the extension to obtain a formal ageement with the EU, then the HOC needs legislation enabling the referendum, then the wording needs to be agreed, then the campaign.
Late Spring, early Summer is a minimum for the actual vote and would a cobbled together HOC hold together and what domestic policy agenda could be agreed
They can get working on the referendum wording immediately, in parallel with any discussions with the EU. The Political Declaration is mostly there for domestic British political purposes; What the EU are really bothered about is the WA, which is already consistent with Norway, and all the detailed discussion about what happens afterwards is done during the transition period. So if the UK parliament agrees on what it agrees on, and the EU is happy with the general direction, you could literally do it in a day.
So parliament can pass the WA+referendum bill by the end of October, tell the Electoral Commission to get all its preparations done in November (change legislation for this if necessary), campaigns formally agreed in December, campaign starts right after the New Year, vote late Jan, out (or revoke) end Jan.
I think it's actually easier if you do it fast, because as you say if you allow it to stretch out you start arguing about the domestic agenda.
It will not happen. You are putting forward your hoped for resolution but in practice the events from the 19th to 31st October will overwhelm your ideas
With respect I think many of our ideas fall into that category, yours and mine Included.
Parliament is self-governing. If the PM refuses to obey then they can VONC him and choose a new PM.
They will do if necessary, they will do whatever is necessary to stop no deal within this parliament, it will not happen.
But, I think every previous PM of my lifetime and probably beyond would have resigned when they have lost the support of the Commons to an extent where their only option is to clearly break the law. Why does this elitist, selfish, entitled PM not do likewise?
Every previous PM would have called an election, not resigned. Thanks to the FTPA this option is not available.
The Tory 21 rebels would vote down Corbyn immediately following extension too
That remains to be seen. They'd certainly have voted him down if they'd still been Tories, but...
They still are 'tories' just like myself.
I resigned when Boris sacked them but neither I nor any of them would be a party to putting Corbyn anywhere near No 10
If it is the only way to stop no deal you would be wrong on that. Of course they massively prefer the legislative option they have taken, and it should really work.
But if the PM breaks the law and there is no way to stop no deal, then they have not ended their careers and lifelong friendships to allow Boris to win and the country to suffer what they (rightly or wrongly) perceive as self imposed disaster with no legitimacy. They will do whatever is necessary.
Very few Tory posters accepted that 15-30 rebels would block as I have said all summer, they will continue to do whatever is the minimum required to block no deal, but if push really comes to shove they will vote in Corbyn.
Dadge - I agree that Tories are home and dry if an October election. My assumption is that it will be Nov or later.
I don`t think that the ruling out of a Oct election by the oppostion parties has been reflected in the most seats betting market. This is the point I was making. To repeat: I cannot understand how CP can be 1/2 best priced given where we are now.
Option 1. BoZo goes to jail. He may be a hero and a martyr, but, and this is the crucial point, he doesn't get to be World King in jail. Unlike Mandela, he will not be voted President for life upon release.
Option 2. He resigns. The Tories elected him because they thought he was their best shot of avoiding Corbyn. After losing every vote as PM, his last defining act will be to make Corbyn PM.
I can't at the moment see how either of those scenarios is a win, but I am not a 4D chess expert...
Option 1. In addition Corbyn becomes PM and no deal is still blocked.
Do it! As noted last night he thinks he'll win a GE if we are out, so the DUP pulling support is surely not a threat to him.
has anyone noticed that when you about 40 down on the reliable numbers, the 10 votes of the worlds' most duplicitous party (DUP, in a close contest with Sinn Fein) are not worth having, especially as they never had them when they were actually needed.
Exactly. Which explains why Johnson is kite flying an NI-only backstop. DUP now irrelevant.
Any option to screw those duplicitous fools is a plus. Absolute grievance mongers and so arrogant to boot.
HYUFD must be a parody account. I've seen the most glorious posts below. Boris is now Toad of Toad Hall. No, he's Nelson Mandela!!!!!!!!! He's going to be imprisoned and then the masses will march on the jails in a magnificent uprising: millions on the streets bringing down the nasty Parliament, establishment and Evil EU. The Great Uprising is coming.
Option 1. BoZo goes to jail. He may be a hero and a martyr, but, and this is the crucial point, he doesn't get to be World King in jail. Unlike Mandela, he will not be voted President for life upon release.
Option 2. He resigns. The Tories elected him because they thought he was their best shot of avoiding Corbyn. After losing every vote as PM, his last defining act will be to make Corbyn PM.
I can't at the moment see how either of those scenarios is a win, but I am not a 4D chess expert...
He could resign in favour of another Tory prepared to ask for an extension - Gove? Hunt?
More worrying than what the Sun and the Telegraph and the FT are writing is what Ministers are saying to journalists. Everyone of them has a story along the lines that Johnson's losing it and we all know what happens to a PM when this happens.
Unless this genuinely is all part of the plan and we end up looking very silly, I'm curious what BoJo expected once he became PM. He has a famously high opinion of his own intellect, so no matter how bad May was did he really think it would be so easy?
Talking of Johnson's hgh opinion of himself his biographer was on TV the other day talking about Joe's resignation. She was asked about competitiveness in the Johnson household. She said it was vey strong "It took Boris a long time to get over Joe getting a first when he only got a 2:1".
Reading between the lines a biographer who didn't like their subject!
All those in the UK who cheered on Catalan politicians who consistently chose to break the law should, for consistency's sake, be totally relaxed about Johnson breaking UK law. I wonder if they are.
To secure Brexit, the Tories will now happily contemplate: * The end of the UK * Closing down Parliament * Breaking the law * Causing sustained damage to the economy This is astonishing. It is complete madness. And it is just plain wrong. These people are deranged.
If this referendum result is not secured, then what's the point in holding another Scottish independence referendum or example? The precedent will have been set that referendum results can be ignored. The constitutional crisis has it's root in the holding of a referendum with no clear way of enacting one of the possible outcomes, but having done so it's too late to put the genie back.
The Tory 21 rebels would vote down Corbyn immediately following extension too
That remains to be seen. They'd certainly have voted him down if they'd still been Tories, but...
They still are 'tories' just like myself.
I resigned when Boris sacked them but neither I nor any of them would be a party to putting Corbyn anywhere near No 10
If it is the only way to stop no deal you would be wrong on that. Of course they massively prefer the legislative option they have taken, and it should really work.
But if the PM breaks the law and there is no way to stop no deal, then they have not ended their careers and lifelong friendships to allow Boris to win and the country to suffer what they (rightly or wrongly) perceive as self imposed disaster with no legitimacy. They will do whatever is necessary.
Very few Tory posters accepted that 15-30 rebels would block as I have said all summer, they will continue to do whatever is the minimum required to block no deal, but if push really comes to shove they will vote in Corbyn.
To secure Brexit, the Tories will now happily contemplate: * The end of the UK * Closing down Parliament * Breaking the law * Causing sustained damage to the economy This is astonishing. It is complete madness. And it is just plain wrong. These people are deranged.
All those in the UK who cheered on Catalan politicians who consistently chose to break the law should, for consistency's sake, be totally relaxed about Johnson breaking UK law. I wonder if they are.
It will not happen. You are putting forward your hoped for resolution but in practice the events from the 19th to 31st October will overwhelm your ideas
Of course it's only one of a number of possible outcomes but if it doesn't happen it's because the politics isn't doable (one of the parties prefers an election, they can't agree on the leader etc) not because the timetable doesn't work.
HYUFD must be a parody account. I've seen the most glorious posts below. Boris is now Toad of Toad Hall. No, he's Nelson Mandela!!!!!!!!! He's going to be imprisoned and then the masses will march on the jails in a magnificent uprising: millions on the streets bringing down the nasty Parliament, establishment and Evil EU. The Great Uprising is coming.
It's glorious stuff.
Have we established that he isn't Dom?
It would be CLASSIC DOM to be posting his cunning plans on here.
Option 1. BoZo goes to jail. He may be a hero and a martyr, but, and this is the crucial point, he doesn't get to be World King in jail. Unlike Mandela, he will not be voted President for life upon release.
Option 2. He resigns. The Tories elected him because they thought he was their best shot of avoiding Corbyn. After losing every vote as PM, his last defining act will be to make Corbyn PM.
I can't at the moment see how either of those scenarios is a win, but I am not a 4D chess expert...
Option 1. In addition Corbyn becomes PM and no deal is still blocked.
All those in the UK who cheered on Catalan politicians who consistently chose to break the law should, for consistency's sake, be totally relaxed about Johnson breaking UK law. I wonder if they are.
Dadge - I agree that Tories are home and dry if an October election. My assumption is that it will be Nov or later.
I don`t think that the ruling out of a Oct election by the oppostion parties has been reflected in the most seats betting market. This is the point I was making. To repeat: I cannot understand how CP can be 1/2 best priced given where we are now.
I suppose bookies and bettors are hedging until the FTPA vote fails on Monday.
Option 1. BoZo goes to jail. He may be a hero and a martyr, but, and this is the crucial point, he doesn't get to be World King in jail. Unlike Mandela, he will not be voted President for life upon release.
Option 2. He resigns. The Tories elected him because they thought he was their best shot of avoiding Corbyn. After losing every vote as PM, his last defining act will be to make Corbyn PM.
I can't at the moment see how either of those scenarios is a win, but I am not a 4D chess expert...
He could resign in favour of another Tory prepared to ask for an extension - Gove? Hunt?
I think by far the most likely answer is he delegates the extension request to someone in the cabinet, Cox or Gove seem ideal candidates. Before he does that, the PM tries to look well hard for Daily Express readers who lap it up.
All those in the UK who cheered on Catalan politicians who consistently chose to break the law should, for consistency's sake, be totally relaxed about Johnson breaking UK law. I wonder if they are.
The Tory 21 rebels would vote down Corbyn immediately following extension too
That remains to be seen. They'd certainly have voted him down if they'd still been Tories, but...
They still are 'tories' just like myself.
I resigned when Boris sacked them but neither I nor any of them would be a party to putting Corbyn anywhere near No 10
If it is the only way to stop no deal you would be wrong on that. Of course they massively prefer the legislative option they have taken, and it should really work.
But if the PM breaks the law and there is no way to stop no deal, then they have not ended their careers and lifelong friendships to allow Boris to win and the country to suffer what they (rightly or wrongly) perceive as self imposed disaster with no legitimacy. They will do whatever is necessary.
Very few Tory posters accepted that 15-30 rebels would block as I have said all summer, they will continue to do whatever is the minimum required to block no deal, but if push really comes to shove they will vote in Corbyn.
No they won't
I think you may be wrong here, MrG. My sense is that the ex-Tory MPs are not people who believe that politicians should be above the law. Once leaders are able to pick and choose which laws they want to follow, the British Constitution is dead - as is democracy.
I think by far the most likely answer is he delegates the extension request to someone in the cabinet, Cox or Gove seem ideal candidates. Before he does that, the PM tries to look well hard for Daily Express readers who lap it up.
Perhaps, but again I don't see how that keeps the "last defender of Brexit" flame alive.
The whole issue seems a nonsense, a convenient peg for both sides to say no on, politics rather anything genuine, then everyone shuts down discussion because its NI and no one is allowed to have an opinion on it as they just dont get it.
Worth reading Foster's thread in full. It is not only UK that is in a logical bind. TMs deal should by now look attractive to both UK and Ireland (to protect it from double think if there is No Deal) if one took various egos out of the picture.
All those in the UK who cheered on Catalan politicians who consistently chose to break the law should, for consistency's sake, be totally relaxed about Johnson breaking UK law. I wonder if they are.
I think by far the most likely answer is he delegates the extension request to someone in the cabinet, Cox or Gove seem ideal candidates. Before he does that, the PM tries to look well hard for Daily Express readers who lap it up.
Perhaps, but again I don't see how that keeps the "last defender of Brexit" flame alive.
Said he would Do or Die. Didn't do.
Said he would Die in a ditch. Didn't die.
You can't trust BoZo with Brexit...
He has no good options. He has to choose the least worst.
It has strong parallels with Brexit, there are no good options from here (including revoke), we have to choose the least worst and get on with it.
Agree with the header and I am strongly attracted to Michael Gove. He appears to me to be the person who best combines Leave credentials with competence.
First sentence is TMI, last word is startling.
I still have not got over David Herdson's assertion in the header that Priti Patel should be considered PM material.....
To secure Brexit, the Tories will now happily contemplate: * The end of the UK * Closing down Parliament * Breaking the law * Causing sustained damage to the economy This is astonishing. It is complete madness. And it is just plain wrong. These people are deranged.
If this referendum result is not secured, then what's the point in holding another Scottish independence referendum or example? The precedent will have been set that referendum results can be ignored. The constitutional crisis has it's root in the holding of a referendum with no clear way of enacting one of the possible outcomes, but having done so it's too late to put the genie back.
We are where we are because having voted to Leave the EU, the electorate then gave most of its votes at the last general eleciton to parties that opposed a No Deal Brexit. Yes, this is tough and it is divisive, but that does not mean we give up our entire constitutional framework, our economy and even our country so that a mediocre politician with an extreme ego and a talent for self-promotion can live out his fantasies.
...the week from hell. Everything is unravelling...clueless and powerless...Viscerally I expect we're going to see him leaching support.
...an outright Conservative win are vanishingly narrow.
be held by trusted 3rd party.
And because Labour are in this state, somehow the Tories sitll lead the polls.
I hope you don't teach your students about probability.
I
Just for a bit of fun:
a = b aa = ab aa-bb = ab - bb (a-b)(a+b) = b(a-b) a+b = b 2b = b 2 = 1
Is that what you did?
pure and utter bollox. If you have two apples and another two apples , you can never get 2 apples to equal one apple unless you eat one of them.
Of course it is bollox, but your reason is not correct. Each line of maths is correct, but in one of the lines of maths I did something, that although normally is ok, in this instant isn't for a very particular reason. I'm deliberately being vague and it is very trivial but an easy mistake to make.
Last 3 lines look wrong to me
The mistake is from line 4 to line 5. I have done something that is normally allowed, but for very specific reasons I can't do in this instant.
How if a=b can a+b = b , that would mean b = 0 and also a therefore have to be zero. Or have I lost my marbles.
Your right it can't, but that is because the mistake was made in getting from the line above to this line. Each line of maths is correct but to get from line 4 to line 5 I have divided each side by (a-b) which is normally a valid thing to do to simplify the statement so it looks ok.
However we already know a = b so I am therefore dividing each side by zero. A big no no which enables me to prove anything I damn well like and a common mistake when dealing with variables. I can't tell you the number of times I managed to appear to prove the impossible!
You correctly identified the point it goes wrong by substituting numbers for the variables.
Yebbut... not really speculation if he says he’ll do it, on the record and on camera, half a dozen times using colourful phrases like “die in a ditch”. Weasel words, Mr MP.
It very clearly is under consideration, who is he fooling? As for resigning the whip, well the government will have no problem finding people who are willing to stand in his seat happy with BoJo.
He has no good options. He has to choose the least worst.
Which is?
Get someone else to write the letter and keep a low profile for a few weeks, whilst planning the election campaign more effectively than they planned September.
The whole issue seems a nonsense, a convenient peg for both sides to say no on, politics rather anything genuine, then everyone shuts down discussion because its NI and no one is allowed to have an opinion on it as they just dont get it.
Worth reading Foster's thread in full. It is not only UK that is in a logical bind. TMs deal should by now look attractive to both UK and Ireland (to protect it from double think if there is No Deal) if one took various egos out of the picture.
I suppose one way out for Boris is to backpedal and whip his MPs to support the WA, as resuscitated by the Kinnock amendment. It can't be out of the question that, with enough parliamentary backroom wheelerdealery, it'll finally pass. Thereby we'd leave the EU almost immediately and he'd go into the GE as a kind of Hypocrite Hero. And probably win it!
"All those in the UK who cheered on Catalan politicians who consistently chose to break the law should, for consistency's sake, be totally relaxed about Johnson breaking UK law. I wonder if they are."
If you were to make hypocrisy an offence, all politicians would be guilty on multiple occasions. Beauty is said to be in the eye of the beholder. So are facts where MPs are concerned.
To secure Brexit, the Tories will now happily contemplate: * The end of the UK * Closing down Parliament * Breaking the law * Causing sustained damage to the economy This is astonishing. It is complete madness. And it is just plain wrong. These people are deranged.
If this referendum result is not secured, then what's the point in holding another Scottish independence referendum or example? The precedent will have been set that referendum results can be ignored. The constitutional crisis has it's root in the holding of a referendum with no clear way of enacting one of the possible outcomes, but having done so it's too late to put the genie back.
We are where we are because having voted to Leave the EU, the electorate then gave most of its votes at the last general eleciton to parties that opposed a No Deal Brexit. Yes, this is tough and it is divisive, but that does not mean we give up our entire constitutional framework, our economy and even our country so that a mediocre politician with an extreme ego and a talent for self-promotion can live out his fantasies.
Indeed. Let's take the part about Boris out of it even - the position is very tough and divisive, but you don't give up everything as a result of that tough and divisive position.
It's the difference between truly thinking any cost makes something acceptable, and not being willing to burn everything to the ground in pursuit of it. And no, I don't hold back in criticism of the phony 'we'll do anything to stop no deal' remainers.
Would it make sense for Boris to use the Benn Act as a reason for saying that his negotiation hands are tied, so the best he can do is bring back TMs deal to the Commons to test current opinion? It remains the only deal in town and he has promised not to ask for an extension.
It is on a plate for him with a cross party alliance including Stephen Kinnock and Rory Stewart bringing it to the HOC as they have already said, and it is required under the terms of the no deal act
As we all know Boris is not to be trusted so how about this for an idea. He returns from the EU Council meeting with a superficial change to the PD, the WDA as modified including labour's recommendations agreed with TM, is presented on the 19th October and the HOC votes it through, we leave on the 31st March and we have a transition period that will see stock markets soar, business cheer, and the Country sigh a huge sigh of relief
Job done, ERG done (Cummings does not like the ERG), Remainers done, the referendum fulfilled, and Boris has achieved his objective
It may be fanciful but it is not impossible by any means
And the real hero in this would be TM who laid all the groundwork
Too late. No opposition MP (Nor several Tories) would be happy with Johnson remaining as PM. A week is a long time in politics. A week of Johnson as PM was a week too long
I'm less bothered by the delaying of the election than I am by the opposition allowing the prorogation to happen. This is now totally unnecessary and will be followed by an unnecessary Queen's Speech.
Eh? That was exactly her point.
I agree with you!
How did the opposition allow the prorogation to happen? I thought it was in the hand of the government
When I was marking over the summer, the Principal Examiner for the module couldn't spell 'incoherent,' couldn't read timetables and couldn't fill in simple forms correctly. (Her marks were also all over the place but I think that was because she had never marked before.)
She demonstrated a greater level of basic competence than this government.
did you see the lovely job I posted for you earlier in week
Far too many diffrerent ideas being proposed as 'only way' for Boris to salvage his leadership. Hence his confusion and willingness to consider breaking the law.
Agree with the header and I am strongly attracted to Michael Gove. He appears to me to be the person who best combines Leave credentials with competence.
First sentence is TMI, last word is startling.
I still have not got over David Herdson's assertion in the header that Priti Patel should be considered PM material.....
As for Dominic Raab
some fried brains about or else some people have dreadful judgement.
WIth the Queen set to sign the bill into law for the PM to be told to ask for an extension, will we see a leaver backlash against her for 'picking sides' the same as the ridiculous remainer backlash at her for agreeing to prorogation?
Would it make sense for Boris to use the Benn Act as a reason for saying that his negotiation hands are tied, so the best he can do is bring back TMs deal to the Commons to test current opinion? It remains the only deal in town and he has promised not to ask for an extension.
It is on a plate for him with a cross party alliance including Stephen Kinnock and Rory Stewart bringing it to the HOC as they have already said, and it is required under the terms of the no deal act
As we all know Boris is not to be trusted so how about this for an idea. He returns from the EU Council meeting with a superficial change to the PD, the WDA as modified including labour's recommendations agreed with TM, is presented on the 19th October and the HOC votes it through, we leave on the 31st March and we have a transition period that will see stock markets soar, business cheer, and the Country sigh a huge sigh of relief
Job done, ERG done (Cummings does not like the ERG), Remainers done, the referendum fulfilled, and Boris has achieved his objective
It may be fanciful but it is not impossible by any means
And the real hero in this would be TM who laid all the groundwork
A week is a long time in politics. A week of Johnson as PM was a week too long
Would it make sense for Boris to use the Benn Act as a reason for saying that his negotiation hands are tied, so the best he can do is bring back TMs deal to the Commons to test current opinion? It remains the only deal in town and he has promised not to ask for an extension.
It is on a plate for him with a cross party alliance including Stephen Kinnock and Rory Stewart bringing it to the HOC as they have already said, and it is required under the terms of the no deal act
As we all know Boris is not to be trusted so how about this for an idea. He returns from the EU Council meeting with a superficial change to the PD, the WDA as modified including labour's recommendations agreed with TM, is presented on the 19th October and the HOC votes it through, we leave on the 31st March and we have a transition period that will see stock markets soar, business cheer, and the Country sigh a huge sigh of relief
Job done, ERG done (Cummings does not like the ERG), Remainers done, the referendum fulfilled, and Boris has achieved his objective
It may be fanciful but it is not impossible by any means
And the real hero in this would be TM who laid all the groundwork
Too late. No opposition MP (Nor several Tories) would be happy with Johnson remaining as PM. A week is a long time in politics. A week of Johnson as PM was a week too long
Uh-huh. Politics isn't really about Brexit at the moment, it's about Boris.
It very clearly is under consideration, who is he fooling? As for resigning the whip, well the government will have no problem finding people who are willing to stand in his seat happy with BoJo.
He is not really trying to fool anyone, just writing in code if you like. It is very clear he is sending a message to the PM/Cummings because he thinks it may be under consideration, otherwise no need for the threat.
This opendemocracy story doesn't seem to have got as much credence, and sceptical but reasonable attention as it should, despite the fact that it comes from the precictably self-interested aides of Nigel Farage, who want to raise the Brexit party's profile.
"Boris Johnson’s aides in Downing Street have “opened channels” with the Brexit Party to discuss a formal general election pact, according to close associates of Nigel Farage.
The two party leaders have not talked since Johnson became Prime Minister. However, back-channel meetings between Number 10 and Brexit Party officials have taken place. Further talks, according to sources contacted by openDemocracy, are scheduled over the coming weekend.
They will include arranging a public meeting between Johnson and Farage that could take place shortly after parliament prorogues next week."
I know it's easy to put 'if only.' Where would you start and where would you stop?
I guess right back at the moment Cameron thought this was all a good idea, though you could go back further still. Those who hate the EU would say to the moment we first joined. Those who don't have a problem with Europe would say it all goes back to the internal fissure running right through the Tory party for 4 decades.
In the more immediate, Theresa May was manifestly unsuited to work as a collaborative PM which was vital, not only because of the idiotic simplicity of the original vote but also because the country was split nearly down the middle.
However, there's one other moment when I think Johnson, yes even Johnson, could have salvaged this. I did say so on here and probably others did too. He should have gone to the country immediately he was chosen leader. Before he'd appointed the Cabinet. Before the words No Deal had been uttered from No 10. Before Cummings walked through that door. The Opposition would've agreed to an election I think.
Anyway, too late now. Johnson and Cummings were left with their wrecking ball.
Far too many diffrerent ideas being proposed as 'only way' for Boris to salvage his leadership. Hence his confusion and willingness to consider breaking the law.
The EU had proposed a NI only backstop and May also agreed but Arlene Foster vetoed it. Ironically, Johnson is in a "stronger" position since he does not have a majority with or without the DUP.
OK. DUP and the ERG will vote against. How many Labour MPs will rebel to vote for ? Johnson will need, at least, 50. Probably 60. I think this is now doomed as well. The Remainers can see their promised land [ the current situation ] just over the horizon. This is not the time to give up. We have almost got it !
The Tory 21 rebels would vote down Corbyn immediately following extension too
That remains to be seen. They'd certainly have voted him down if they'd still been Tories, but...
They still are 'tories' just like myself.
I resigned when Boris sacked them but neither I nor any of them would be a party to putting Corbyn anywhere near No 10
If it is the only way to stop no deal you would be wrong on that. Of course they massively prefer the legislative option they have taken, and it should really work.
But if the PM breaks the law and there is no way to stop no deal, then they have not ended their careers and lifelong friendships to allow Boris to win and the country to suffer what they (rightly or wrongly) perceive as self imposed disaster with no legitimacy. They will do whatever is necessary.
Very few Tory posters accepted that 15-30 rebels would block as I have said all summer, they will continue to do whatever is the minimum required to block no deal, but if push really comes to shove they will vote in Corbyn.
No they won't
I think you may be wrong here, MrG. My sense is that the ex-Tory MPs are not people who believe that politicians should be above the law. Once leaders are able to pick and choose which laws they want to follow, the British Constitution is dead - as is democracy.
True, a PM willing to break the law , knowingly, would be a very low point for this country.
I know it's easy to put 'if only.' Where would you start and where would you stop?
I guess right back at the moment Cameron thought this was all a good idea, though you could go back further still. Those who hate the EU would say to the moment we first joined. Those who don't have a problem with Europe would say it all goes back to the internal fissure running right through the Tory party for 4 decades.
In the more immediate, Theresa May was manifestly unsuited to work as a collaborative PM which was vital, not only because of the idiotic simplicity of the original vote but also because the country was split nearly down the middle.
However, there's one other moment when I think Johnson, yes even Johnson, could have salvaged this. I did say so on here and probably others did too. He should have gone to the country immediately he was chosen leader. Before he'd appointed the Cabinet. Before the words No Deal had been uttered from No 10. Before Cummings walked through that door. The Opposition would've agreed to an election I think.
Anyway, too late now. Johnson and Cummings were left with their wrecking ball.
Once Boris said October 31st we leave the EU Deal or No Deal his chance of an election disappeared.
It very clearly is under consideration, who is he fooling? As for resigning the whip, well the government will have no problem finding people who are willing to stand in his seat happy with BoJo.
He is not really trying to fool anyone, just writing in code if you like. It is very clear he is sending a message to the PM/Cummings because he thinks it may be under consideration, otherwise no need for the threat.
But that's just it, it isn't a threat. Boris and co believe they must no deal Brexit, do or die, and have already been happy to kick out 21 Tories for threatening that outcome.
And if he is not trying to fool anyone, and is not fooling himself, then he is a outright liar for pretending media speculation on the topic is nonsense. Being a liar is better?
Far too many diffrerent ideas being proposed as 'only way' for Boris to salvage his leadership. Hence his confusion and willingness to consider breaking the law.
The EU had proposed a NI only backstop and May also agreed but Arlene Foster vetoed it. Ironically, Johnson is in a "stronger" position since he does not have a majority with or without the DUP.
OK. DUP and the ERG will vote against. How many Labour MPs will rebel to vote for ? Johnson will need, at least, 50. Probably 60. I think this is now doomed as well. The Remainers can see their promised land [ the current situation ] just over the horizon. This is not the time to give up. We have almost got it !
The key is how many ERG. May got it down to around 25-30, but like you I think more would be against than that. And as you say, remainers have successfully played for time for long enough that remain is almost achieved. Boris's meltdown about the extension bill only proves that.
It's perhaps surprising only 21 real Conservative MPs have gone so far
There are a good few now not standing at the next election probably due to the no deal pledge that to sign.
What chance a 'New Tory' party committed to traditional Conservative policies, a soft Brexit and bringing in proportional representation? They could start with maybe 60+ MPs.
It has played out exactly as what many people warned about.
...that Boris Johnson is not a suitable candidate to be PM. Was fairly obvious but amazing there are still a few nutters who think he is the right man for the job.
Could the Govt simply advise HMQ to delay Royal Assent for the Benn Bill unless/until GE agreed (witha fixed date) or after 31 Oct?
Realise this would be unprecedented, torching convention, etc, but we live in a time when the constitution and conventions are being 'reimagined' daily. Govt advises HMQ not to give Royal Assent - because it's not Govt policy.
(NB: there were rumours on Twitter that JRM was at Balmoral again last night - unclear as to whether any substance to this.)
Presumably, the Rebel Alliance would go batsh*t at this point, howl at the moon, etc, but what can they actually do about it?
VoNC BoJo+Govt and install temp Govt with Jezza/Ken C/AN Other in charge to advise HMQ Royal Assent be granted, seek art 50 extension, etc?
However, given imminent prorogation, would they have the Parliamentary time to effect all of the above?
If RA succeeds, BoJo loses power - possibly temporarily - but does a Pontius Pilate re art 50 extenstion and then frames subsequent GE as People vs Parliament.
Risk to Boris is that a GE could be delayed for a while, but other than being anti-No Deal, what else does the Rebel Alliance agree on sufficient to produce a majority in the HoC? Precious little, I would suggest. It doesn't have the look of a stable coalition of interests that would last months and months.
Both sides would claim to be respecting democracy, but there could be an increasing risk of civil disorder by Nov/Dec if no GE called.
Apols in advance if already covered, but interested in views and whether there's a market open on this specific point.
It very clearly is under consideration, who is he fooling? As for resigning the whip, well the government will have no problem finding people who are willing to stand in his seat happy with BoJo.
Much more of this and the Men in Grey Suits will be asked to get involved. Cummings is some kind of toy-town anarchist with Boris his affably bumbling figurehead. Brexit or not, the Tory tribe isn't going to sit back and let these jokers blow up a centuries-old political institution for giggles. We'll soon be looking back and seeing the Boris premiership as a short-lived and ill-advised aberration, a curiosity.
It's easy to see why Remainers favour a referendum over a general election. The Tories, Brexit Party and UKIP are currently averaging about 47-48% in the polls, enough to win a massive majority at a GE (if they organise a pact of some sort), but obviously not the 50%+ you need to win a plebiscite.
It's easy to see why Remainers favour a referendum over a general election. The Tories, Brexit Party and UKIP are currently averaging about 47-48% in the polls, enough to win a massive majority at a GE (if they organise a pact of some sort), but obviously not the 50%+ you need to win a plebiscite.
I think we can forget UKIP, they will struggle to get 500 votes anywhere they stand. Which will not be in many seats as they are broke.
It's perhaps surprising only 21 real Conservative MPs have gone so far
Good morning.
A lot more have announced that they're standing down at the next election. Claire Perry yesterday, Nick Hurd the day before, to name just a few.
Unusual incumbency disadvantage to the tories should be built into predictions for the election, seems logical for it to be worse when MPs stand down en masse for significant differences than coming to the end of their careers.
It would be wrong to blame Johnson for the Tory misfortune. His plumage may be exotic but this bird is a scavenger.
No, the blame should rest on the shoulders of the Conservative Party, the whole Conservative Party and only the Conservative Party. They alone brought this Brexit trouble upon us. Our age rightly disapproves of the careless use of mental disorder as a metaphor for wrongheadedness but I am serious. Something mad has taken root in our party, and our internal defences — our immune system — seem to have been too feeble to identify this new jihadism, stand up to it and repel it.
Almost in tears, a friend said to me this week: “All those years we argued about withdrawing the whip and throwing these madcaps out of the party and draining the poison but we murmured ‘broad church’ and ‘tolerance’ and ‘due process’. We were wrong.”
All those in the UK who cheered on Catalan politicians who consistently chose to break the law should, for consistency's sake, be totally relaxed about Johnson breaking UK law. I wonder if they are.
Mr. JS, I think it's also worth adding that the only way to try and overcome a referendum mandate is with another one.
Of course, given how things have gone I'd anticipate Remain winning with 51% of the vote on a smaller turnout, just to maximise the contentiousness of the result.
It very clearly is under consideration, who is he fooling? As for resigning the whip, well the government will have no problem finding people who are willing to stand in his seat happy with BoJo.
Much more of this and the Men in Grey Suits will be asked to get involved. Cummings is some kind of toy-town anarchist with Boris his affably bumbling figurehead. Brexit or not, the Tory tribe isn't going to sit back and let these jokers blow up a centuries-old political institution for giggles. We'll soon be looking back and seeing the Boris premiership as a short-lived and ill-advised aberration, a curiosity.
Reading conservativehome says differently. Looking at momentums takeover of the Labour party says differently. These organisations are surprisingly badly set up to deal with enthusiastic insurgents.
It's easy to see why Remainers favour a referendum over a general election. The Tories, Brexit Party and UKIP are currently averaging about 47-48% in the polls, enough to win a massive majority at a GE (if they organise a pact of some sort), but obviously not the 50%+ you need to win a plebiscite.
Exactly. So if that's not what they're working on, WTF are they thinking???
I mean, you can imagine all kinds ways an election could play out and situations where the opposition work around this huge structural disadvantage and get to do what they want, but why would they roll the dice on that when they've got the votes to just... do what they want?
Comments
Option 1. BoZo goes to jail. He may be a hero and a martyr, but, and this is the crucial point, he doesn't get to be World King in jail. Unlike Mandela, he will not be voted President for life upon release.
Option 2. He resigns. The Tories elected him because they thought he was their best shot of avoiding Corbyn. After losing every vote as PM, his last defining act will be to make Corbyn PM.
I can't at the moment see how either of those scenarios is a win, but I am not a 4D chess expert...
BXP would only stand down if the CP agrees to doing similarly in other constituencies. How would that conversation go with the Tory candidates in those constituencies? This "pact" is not gong to happen.
And even if it did, a majority in the Commons would rely on a CP/BXT coalition - no chance.
If Brexit doens`t happen the Tory Party is finished. Simple as that. Those of you who are Tories need to hope that Dom C has something up his sleeve.
Before Charles jumps on me, that's (mostly) in jest. I know mental ill health up close.
More seriously, I do think Johnson is losing it. He's becoming flummoxed and both in his press conference and yesterday he was quite 'odd.' I think he has always lusted after the job but never really understood it nor what it entails. A little like his sense of entitlement towards getting a first, which he didn't, he seems indignant that anyone should scrutinise the manifest bullshit he's full of.
As many of us pointed out on here ad nauseam, he's the least suitable person to be tory Prime Minister of a generation.
Ran away when the going got tough. Again.
I agree with you!
Its pathetic, but the only thing worse is he does intend it.
Can you spot something strange in the logic here ?
She demonstrated a greater level of basic competence than this government.
But if the PM breaks the law and there is no way to stop no deal, then they have not ended their careers and lifelong friendships to allow Boris to win and the country to suffer what they (rightly or wrongly) perceive as self imposed disaster with no legitimacy. They will do whatever is necessary.
Very few Tory posters accepted that 15-30 rebels would block as I have said all summer, they will continue to do whatever is the minimum required to block no deal, but if push really comes to shove they will vote in Corbyn.
I don`t think that the ruling out of a Oct election by the oppostion parties has been reflected in the most seats betting market. This is the point I was making.
To repeat: I cannot understand how CP can be 1/2 best priced given where we are now.
It's glorious stuff.
Reading between the lines a biographer who didn't like their subject!
It would be CLASSIC DOM to be posting his cunning plans on here.
Opposition want to delay a GE by a few weeks - “Constitutional Crisis!”
Said he would Do or Die. Didn't do.
Said he would Die in a ditch. Didn't die.
You can't trust BoZo with Brexit...
It has strong parallels with Brexit, there are no good options from here (including revoke), we have to choose the least worst and get on with it.
It's perhaps surprising only 21 real Conservative MPs have gone so far
As for Dominic Raab
"All those in the UK who cheered on Catalan politicians who consistently chose to break the law should, for consistency's sake, be totally relaxed about Johnson breaking UK law. I wonder if they are."
If you were to make hypocrisy an offence, all politicians would be guilty on multiple occasions. Beauty is said to be in the eye of the beholder. So are facts where MPs are concerned.
It's the difference between truly thinking any cost makes something acceptable, and not being willing to burn everything to the ground in pursuit of it. And no, I don't hold back in criticism of the phony 'we'll do anything to stop no deal' remainers.
+1
"Boris Johnson’s aides in Downing Street have “opened channels” with the Brexit Party to discuss a formal general election pact, according to close associates of Nigel Farage.
The two party leaders have not talked since Johnson became Prime Minister. However, back-channel meetings between Number 10 and Brexit Party officials have taken place. Further talks, according to sources contacted by openDemocracy, are scheduled over the coming weekend.
They will include arranging a public meeting between Johnson and Farage that could take place shortly after parliament prorogues next week."
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-investigations/revealed-election-pact-between-johnson-and-farage-edges-closer/
I guess right back at the moment Cameron thought this was all a good idea, though you could go back further still. Those who hate the EU would say to the moment we first joined. Those who don't have a problem with Europe would say it all goes back to the internal fissure running right through the Tory party for 4 decades.
In the more immediate, Theresa May was manifestly unsuited to work as a collaborative PM which was vital, not only because of the idiotic simplicity of the original vote but also because the country was split nearly down the middle.
However, there's one other moment when I think Johnson, yes even Johnson, could have salvaged this. I did say so on here and probably others did too. He should have gone to the country immediately he was chosen leader. Before he'd appointed the Cabinet. Before the words No Deal had been uttered from No 10. Before Cummings walked through that door. The Opposition would've agreed to an election I think.
Anyway, too late now. Johnson and Cummings were left with their wrecking ball.
Ironically, Johnson is in a "stronger" position since he does not have a majority with or without the DUP.
OK. DUP and the ERG will vote against. How many Labour MPs will rebel to vote for ? Johnson will need, at least, 50. Probably 60. I think this is now doomed as well.
The Remainers can see their promised land [ the current situation ] just over the horizon. This is not the time to give up. We have almost got it !
And if he is not trying to fool anyone, and is not fooling himself, then he is a outright liar for pretending media speculation on the topic is nonsense. Being a liar is better? The key is how many ERG. May got it down to around 25-30, but like you I think more would be against than that. And as you say, remainers have successfully played for time for long enough that remain is almost achieved. Boris's meltdown about the extension bill only proves that.
They could start with maybe 60+ MPs.
A lot more have announced that they're standing down at the next election. Claire Perry yesterday, Nick Hurd the day before, to name just a few.
...that Boris Johnson is not a suitable candidate to be PM. Was fairly obvious but amazing there are still a few nutters who think he is the right man for the job.
Realise this would be unprecedented, torching convention, etc, but we live in a time when the constitution and conventions are being 'reimagined' daily. Govt advises HMQ not to give Royal Assent - because it's not Govt policy.
(NB: there were rumours on Twitter that JRM was at Balmoral again last night - unclear as to whether any substance to this.)
Presumably, the Rebel Alliance would go batsh*t at this point, howl at the moon, etc, but what can they actually do about it?
VoNC BoJo+Govt and install temp Govt with Jezza/Ken C/AN Other in charge to advise HMQ Royal Assent be granted, seek art 50 extension, etc?
However, given imminent prorogation, would they have the Parliamentary time to effect all of the above?
If RA succeeds, BoJo loses power - possibly temporarily - but does a Pontius Pilate re art 50 extenstion and then frames subsequent GE as People vs Parliament.
Risk to Boris is that a GE could be delayed for a while, but other than being anti-No Deal, what else does the Rebel Alliance agree on sufficient to produce a majority in the HoC? Precious little, I would suggest. It doesn't have the look of a stable coalition of interests that would last months and months.
Both sides would claim to be respecting democracy, but there could be an increasing risk of civil disorder by Nov/Dec if no GE called.
Apols in advance if already covered, but interested in views and whether there's a market open on this specific point.
No, the blame should rest on the shoulders of the Conservative Party, the whole Conservative Party and only the Conservative Party. They alone brought this Brexit trouble upon us. Our age rightly disapproves of the careless use of mental disorder as a metaphor for wrongheadedness but I am serious. Something mad has taken root in our party, and our internal defences — our immune system — seem to have been too feeble to identify this new jihadism, stand up to it and repel it.
Almost in tears, a friend said to me this week: “All those years we argued about withdrawing the whip and throwing these madcaps out of the party and draining the poison but we murmured ‘broad church’ and ‘tolerance’ and ‘due process’. We were wrong.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/don-t-blame-boris-for-the-tory-meltdown-ggs8vsphz
Of course, given how things have gone I'd anticipate Remain winning with 51% of the vote on a smaller turnout, just to maximise the contentiousness of the result.
I mean, you can imagine all kinds ways an election could play out and situations where the opposition work around this huge structural disadvantage and get to do what they want, but why would they roll the dice on that when they've got the votes to just... do what they want?