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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson becomes Rudderless as the Conservation broad chu

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited September 7 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson becomes Rudderless as the Conservation broad church continues to fracture

I have resigned from Cabinet and surrendered the Conservative Whip.

Read the full story here


«1345678

Comments

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,633
    Well I never ....
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,633
    Did ....
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,351
    Second like Leave in the 2020 EU Referendum
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,167
    As the old world burns the new conservatives celebrate their poll leads.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,633
    At this rate the Tories will fall below Labour when the election comes and the LibDems will be vying with the SNP for third party status ..... Titter .... :sunglasses:
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,118
    FPT


    @ydoethur said:

    "I think one point we are all forgetting - particularly when looking at the polling - is that acts that are illegal, unconstitutional or downright crazy are not necessarily unpopular. A few obvious examples spring to mind - Bonar Law's support for the UVF, Thatcher's use of the police without showing their numbers in the miners' strike, George III sacking Portland in 1783. And that's just in this country - de Gaulle's coup in 1958 would also be a good example. The key was the people doing the rule breaking were popular and those being hammered were not.

    Johnson remains personally popular due to his TV appearances, and he is offering to leave the EU which, like it or not, whether its supporters know what they're doing or not, is a popular programme. So the fact he is breaking every rule in the book and a number that aren't may not condemn him as it should."

    My response:-

    Indeed. It is one reason why I think his approach could win him the next GE.

    But it is still wrong. Breaking the law is wrong. And having a government which does this degrades our polity, degrades our country and should be criticised. Morality and legality do not depend on popularity. They matter more - in the end - than popularity. Without integrity we are nothing as a people or as a country, however unfashionable or unpopular it may be to say so.
  • FPT after this was posted but on topic.

    I expect more to follow after Clarke's statement. It signals a walking-away.
    Bye then if so.

    Maybe the Wets can takeover the LDs. At least then when Brexit is behind us there's a party that could align with the Tories. Then the LDs can die again. ;)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 50,091
    Cummings has wargamed this...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,733
    Amber Rudd was a very bizarre cabinet appointment.

    Suspect she just took the position so she'd be able to resign and go out in a blaze of glory?
  • Jonathan said:

    As the old world burns the new conservatives celebrate their poll leads.

    LOL. 14% lead in YouGov probably matters more than Rudd (maj 346) flouncing out.
  • glwglw Posts: 5,372

    At least then when Brexit is behind us there's a party that could align with the Tories. Then the LDs can die again. ;)

    When do you expect Brexit to be behind us?
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,351
    On Topic:

    Tory leads of 3%, 10% and 14% show that we need to take all polling with a pinch of salt.

    Betfair Exchange has hardly moved on NOM, Tory majority odds.

    Political events will as ever drive opinion and there is a hell of lot of this match to play...
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 779
    JackW said:

    Well I never ....

    There's life in the old dog yet
  • glw said:

    At least then when Brexit is behind us there's a party that could align with the Tories. Then the LDs can die again. ;)

    When do you expect Brexit to be behind us?
    If there's an election this year then hopefully come 2024.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952
    FPT for YBard

    Corbyn has to come out now. completely in favour of revote and revoke, to staunch the bleeding of votes to the Lib Dems.

    It's too late for him to stop Labour being roundly beaten in any election, but right now he risks - as you say - Labour being supplanted as the opposition.

    Again I predicted this last week. If Britain post Bexitref copies Scotland post indyref, then the party most opposed to Brexit - Lib Dems - should greatly benefit from the polarisation, just as the Scots Tories benefited from being the hardcore Unionist party.
  • Where do these departing/expelled Tory europhiles go ? Themselves, their friends and family, their personal votes, their time, their money, their political capacity. In Physics energy can neither be destroyed or created. Where does the energy that has been part of the Tory Party since at least Heath go ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,377
    Wow, speedy gonzalez or what.

    Came here to break the Amber news and it's already a header!
  • GIN1138 said:

    Amber Rudd was a very bizarre cabinet appointment.

    Suspect she just took the position so she'd be able to resign and go out in a blaze of glory?

    Indeed. Like Jo she should never have been appointed. She should have been sent to the backbenches like Hunt.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,074
    edited September 7
    GIN1138 said:

    Amber Rudd was a very bizarre cabinet appointment.

    Suspect she just took the position so she'd be able to resign and go out in a blaze of glory?

    Given it makes her look pretty silly to have taken the appointment, which cast suspicion on her principles given her well known position on no deal, I think it more likely she simply fooled herself into thinking we would not end up in a position much like this and hoped something would come up which would prevent the need to take the hard decision to resign. Her talk of no longer believing achieving a new deal is the main objective is either phony, or ad admission she was a fool.

    Jonathan said:

    As the old world burns the new conservatives celebrate their poll leads.

    LOL. 14% lead in YouGov probably matters more than Rudd (maj 346) flouncing out.
    If you are right and BXP will forgive Boris for not getting us out by November, should his latest wheeze fail. The lead could otherwise be as ephemeral as those 10% leads May had earlier this year. Remember them?
  • Finally...

  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952
    edited September 7
    Scott_P said:

    Cummings has wargamed this...

    That joke doesn't work so well when the Tories have a FOURTEEN point lead, against a horribly split opposition, which would deliver an utterly enormous landslide.

    TSE's header is rather biased, as well.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,626
    Scott_P said:

    Cummings has wargamed this...

    Should imagine Rudd pissing off was in his wildest fantasies.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,167

    Jonathan said:

    As the old world burns the new conservatives celebrate their poll leads.

    LOL. 14% lead in YouGov probably matters more than Rudd (maj 346) flouncing out.
    The one nation Tory party is dead, all hail the New Conservatives.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,733
    edited September 7
    murali_s said:

    On Topic:

    Tory leads of 3%, 10% and 14% show that we need to take all polling with a pinch of salt.

    The trend is clear though? Election blocking Labour DOWN in all polls so far (and it's not like they were doing brilliantly to start off with)
  • TGOHF said:
    And she subsequently turned a majority of 4796 to 346. Funny that.

    Overinflated ego. Should have been one of the 21.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,993
    Wow. Didn't see that coming, especially not resigning from the party at the same time.
  • That's an incredibly imbecilic comment from Lewis Goodall.

    Does he think that an MP from Guildford is more valuable than an MP from elsewhere ?

    Perhaps some people think the Conservative party should be for 'people like us' rather than 'people like them'.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,651
    The independent Tories will be the official opposition soon.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,351
    Byronic said:

    FPT for YBard

    Corbyn has to come out now. completely in favour of revote and revoke, to staunch the bleeding of votes to the Lib Dems.

    It's too late for him to stop Labour being roundly beaten in any election, but right now he risks - as you say - Labour being supplanted as the opposition.

    Again I predicted this last week. If Britain post Bexitref copies Scotland post indyref, then the party most opposed to Brexit - Lib Dems - should greatly benefit from the polarisation, just as the Scots Tories benefited from being the hardcore Unionist party.

    "It's too late for him to stop Labour being roundly beaten in any election" - have you got a crystal ball or something? If this is how you feel, pile into Tory Majority at what for you would seem a generous 2/1. Free money no?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,335
    Another polling disaster beckoning with the Tory lead ranging from 3% to 14%?
  • glwglw Posts: 5,372

    glw said:

    At least then when Brexit is behind us there's a party that could align with the Tories. Then the LDs can die again. ;)

    When do you expect Brexit to be behind us?
    If there's an election this year then hopefully come 2024.
    I expect it will rage through the 2020s.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,626
    Beth Rigby in mourning on Sky News.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 779
    Cyclefree said:

    FPT


    @ydoethur said:

    "I think one point we are all forgetting - particularly when looking at the polling - is that acts that are illegal, unconstitutional or downright crazy are not necessarily unpopular. A few obvious examples spring to mind - Bonar Law's support for the UVF, Thatcher's use of the police without showing their numbers in the miners' strike, George III sacking Portland in 1783. And that's just in this country - de Gaulle's coup in 1958 would also be a good example. The key was the people doing the rule breaking were popular and those being hammered were not.

    Johnson remains personally popular due to his TV appearances, and he is offering to leave the EU which, like it or not, whether its supporters know what they're doing or not, is a popular programme. So the fact he is breaking every rule in the book and a number that aren't may not condemn him as it should."

    My response:-

    Indeed. It is one reason why I think his approach could win him the next GE.

    But it is still wrong. Breaking the law is wrong. And having a government which does this degrades our polity, degrades our country and should be criticised. Morality and legality do not depend on popularity. They matter more - in the end - than popularity. Without integrity we are nothing as a people or as a country, however unfashionable or unpopular it may be to say so.

    And if you need any further reason why, watch the BBC's rise of the Nazis to see what happens when politics operates outside the law.

    #godwin
  • Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:

    Cummings has wargamed this...

    That joke doesn't work so well when the Tories have a thirteen point lead, against a horribly split opposition, which would deliver an utterly enormous landslide.

    TSE's header is rather biased, as well.
    They also have a 5% lead with the 2017 general election's most accurate pollster.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,337
    Did the establishment really think it could just keep delaying Brexit and putting the country on hold without the whole thing starting to fracture and disintegrate?
    I stand by my post of earlier in the year, anti incumbency is the thing for 2019, being the sitting MP will be a drawback. The swamp is going to drain
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,213
    edited September 7
    So what's the opinion of the Brexiteers here? Is Amber Rudd's resignation:
    (1) Quite good for Boris
    (2) Very good for Boris or
    (3) Orgasmically good for Boris?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,014

    Where do these departing/expelled Tory europhiles go ? Themselves, their friends and family, their personal votes, their time, their money, their political capacity. In Physics energy can neither be destroyed or created. Where does the energy that has been part of the Tory Party since at least Heath go ?

    Politics is not a closed system. It looks like a lot of it will go into business, the professions, journalism, etc. To a certain extent moderate Conservatives are now acquiescing to the entryist takeover of their party by the radical right and simply walking away.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,633
    Tabman said:

    JackW said:

    Well I never ....

    There's life in the old dog yet
    Woof Woof ....
  • The only thing the polls confirm is that we're not sure where we are and we should be even more doubtful as to where we will be.

    So be wise PBers and do less of the predicting and more of the looking for value bets.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952
    murali_s said:

    Byronic said:

    FPT for YBard

    Corbyn has to come out now. completely in favour of revote and revoke, to staunch the bleeding of votes to the Lib Dems.

    It's too late for him to stop Labour being roundly beaten in any election, but right now he risks - as you say - Labour being supplanted as the opposition.

    Again I predicted this last week. If Britain post Bexitref copies Scotland post indyref, then the party most opposed to Brexit - Lib Dems - should greatly benefit from the polarisation, just as the Scots Tories benefited from being the hardcore Unionist party.

    "It's too late for him to stop Labour being roundly beaten in any election" - have you got a crystal ball or something? If this is how you feel, pile into Tory Majority at what for you would seem a generous 2/1. Free money no?
    Corbyn simply can't win. Ever. He can't win Scotland, he will never take seats in rich southern England, he's invisible in the shires, he's LOSING ground everywhere, he's an unelectable, Jew-hating, quasi-communist shitbag.

    Get. Rid. Of. Him.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,733
    Chris said:

    So what's the opinion of the Brexiteers here? Is Amber Rudd's resignation:
    (1) Quite good for Boris
    (2) Very good for Boris or
    (3) Orgasmically good for Boris?

    Probably neutral?
  • murali_s said:

    Byronic said:

    FPT for YBard

    Corbyn has to come out now. completely in favour of revote and revoke, to staunch the bleeding of votes to the Lib Dems.

    It's too late for him to stop Labour being roundly beaten in any election, but right now he risks - as you say - Labour being supplanted as the opposition.

    Again I predicted this last week. If Britain post Bexitref copies Scotland post indyref, then the party most opposed to Brexit - Lib Dems - should greatly benefit from the polarisation, just as the Scots Tories benefited from being the hardcore Unionist party.

    "It's too late for him to stop Labour being roundly beaten in any election" - have you got a crystal ball or something? If this is how you feel, pile into Tory Majority at what for you would seem a generous 2/1. Free money no?
    Perhaps you can explain how Labour will become more attractive to voters, because they don't seem to be making any progress in elections or polls.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 23,881
    edited September 7
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    As the old world burns the new conservatives celebrate their poll leads.

    LOL. 14% lead in YouGov probably matters more than Rudd (maj 346) flouncing out.
    If you are right and BXP will forgive Boris for not getting us out by November, should his latest wheeze fail. The lead could otherwise be as ephemeral as those 10% leads May had earlier this year. Remember them?
    Difference is May wanted an extension. She pushed for it. On a free vote in March she voted for it, a minority of her party to do so. She voted again no deal, again on a free vote.

    Boris is a different kettle of fish altogether. If we're still in the EU come November it will show why Boris needs a majority, not that Boris wasn't a real Brexiteer. Actions like Rudd's will reinforce that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,074
    edited September 7
    GIN1138 said:

    murali_s said:

    On Topic:

    Tory leads of 3%, 10% and 14% show that we need to take all polling with a pinch of salt.

    The trend is clear though? Election blocking Labour DOWN in all polls so far (and it's not like they were doing brilliantly to start off with)
    What good does that do the Tories when an election to capitalise on polls is not in their gift?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,626
    Chris said:

    So what's the opinion of the Brexiteers here? Is Amber Rudd's resignation:
    (1) Quite good for Boris
    (2) Very good for Boris or
    (3) Orgasmically good for Boris?

    4) better than 3.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,318
    Hearing from a friend at the Times that the LDs are talking about a defection as well tonight
  • Chris said:

    So what's the opinion of the Brexiteers here? Is Amber Rudd's resignation:
    (1) Quite good for Boris
    (2) Very good for Boris or
    (3) Orgasmically good for Boris?

    It really isnt any of those. Not least because it makes holding Rudd's seat a tall order
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,337
    TGOHF said:
    They aren't happy she didn't have the decency to pre warn the PM
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,335
    GIN1138 said:

    Amber Rudd was a very bizarre cabinet appointment.

    Suspect she just took the position so she'd be able to resign and go out in a blaze of glory?

    It was, I was really surprised by it when it was first announced.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,566
    JackW said:

    Did ....

    You ever ...?

    What a shrinking party it is,
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    edited September 7
    Boris has with YouGov tonight reunited Leavers and conservatives behind the Tories and given them the biggest projected Tory majority since Maggie Thatcher with YouGov and Opinium while leading with the other pollsters too.

    If Rudd wishes to join the Tory rebels in refusing to deliver the Brexit 17 million voted for and leave the party fine, if more want to follow Lee to the LDs fine too. They might even ensure the Liberals replace Corbyn Labour as the main opponent to the Tories within a decade which would be no bad thing in my view.

    On most of tonight's polls the LDs are now closer to Corbyn Labour than Corbyn Labour are to the Tories
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129
    Cyclefree said:

    FPT


    @ydoethur said:

    "I think one point we are all forgetting - particularly when looking at the polling - is that acts that are illegal, unconstitutional or downright crazy are not necessarily unpopular. A few obvious examples spring to mind - Bonar Law's support for the UVF, Thatcher's use of the police without showing their numbers in the miners' strike, George III sacking Portland in 1783. And that's just in this country - de Gaulle's coup in 1958 would also be a good example. The key was the people doing the rule breaking were popular and those being hammered were not.

    Johnson remains personally popular due to his TV appearances, and he is offering to leave the EU which, like it or not, whether its supporters know what they're doing or not, is a popular programme. So the fact he is breaking every rule in the book and a number that aren't may not condemn him as it should."

    My response:-

    Indeed. It is one reason why I think his approach could win him the next GE.

    But it is still wrong. Breaking the law is wrong. And having a government which does this degrades our polity, degrades our country and should be criticised. Morality and legality do not depend on popularity. They matter more - in the end - than popularity. Without integrity we are nothing as a people or as a country, however unfashionable or unpopular it may be to say so.

    I agree with all of that. But then, even though I am not a lawyer, I also like to think of myself as fairly well-informed on political matters.

    Unfortunately, all Johnson and Cummings care about is popularity. They are both interested solely in votes, neither have any principles, and both of them for all their expensive education have no understanding of the theory or history of government and how it has evolved over time. They are closer to Corbyn and Chavez than Theresa May and Kenneth Clarke.

    What should really give both Johnson and for that matter Bercow pause is the number of very alarming precedents they are setting that could be exploited should Corbyn or someone even more dangerous like Lavery become PM. But it won't, because they are incapable of thinking more than about a minute ahead.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,335

    Hearing from a friend at the Times that the LDs are talking about a defection as well tonight

    Yes, there were rumours of it earlier, but nothing concrete.
  • tlg86 said:

    The independent Tories will be the official opposition soon.

    They've been the internal opposition to Brexit for a while. Hopefully May goes and joins them soon.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 1,647
    tlg86 said:

    The independent Tories will be the official opposition soon.

    And they will be yesterday's news when an election is finally called.

    Boris' "do or die" attitude resonates with the voters. Who'd a thunk it?

    We voted to leave in 2016. Most people are fed up with the pathetic games Parliament has played since then to avoid implementing the result.

    The people, not parliament, are sovereign. MPs are our servants, not our masters.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 3,131
    I can imagine some of the independent Tories having a personal vote, so it is worth them standing (I still think most will lose).

    But Amber Rudd surely risks a Simon Danczuk-like humiliation with a derisory few hundred votes.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,118
    Tabman said:

    Cyclefree said:

    FPT


    @ydoethur said:

    "I think one point we are all forgetting - particularly when looking at the polling - is that acts that are illegal, unconstitutional or downright crazy are not necessarily unpopular. A few obvious examples spring to mind - Bonar Law's support for the UVF, Thatcher's use of the police without showing their numbers in the miners' strike, George III sacking Portland in 1783. And that's just in this country - de Gaulle's coup in 1958 would also be a good example. The key was the people doing the rule breaking were popular and those being hammered were not.

    Johnson remains personally popular due to his TV appearances, and he is offering to leave the EU which, like it or not, whether its supporters know what they're doing or not, is a popular programme. So the fact he is breaking every rule in the book and a number that aren't may not condemn him as it should."

    My response:-

    Indeed. It is one reason why I think his approach could win him the next GE.

    But it is still wrong. Breaking the law is wrong. And having a government which does this degrades our polity, degrades our country and should be criticised. Morality and legality do not depend on popularity. They matter more - in the end - than popularity. Without integrity we are nothing as a people or as a country, however unfashionable or unpopular it may be to say so.

    And if you need any further reason why, watch the BBC's rise of the Nazis to see what happens when politics operates outside the law.

    #godwin
    Well worth reading this by someone who knows what he is talking about - https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/britain-proroguing-boris-johnson-parliament-suspension-richard-evans-weimar
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 50,091


    This is the key line

    You can't trust Bozo
  • Chris said:

    So what's the opinion of the Brexiteers here? Is Amber Rudd's resignation:
    (1) Quite good for Boris
    (2) Very good for Boris or
    (3) Orgasmically good for Boris?

    Neither here nor there. She's appeared quite unprincipled recently in any event and by Monday it will be forgotten.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,074
    Cyclefree said:

    FPT
    It is one reason why I think his approach could win him the next GE.

    But it is still wrong. Breaking the law is wrong.

    Well said. There is this myth that when people criticise they think that everyone else will be outraged too, but it has been repeatedly accepted that there is at the least a chance that the current course the Tories are on will be electorally successful. One doesn't have to think it unpopular to think it wrong.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,733
    TGOHF said:
    Nigel is starting to sound a tad desperate to stay relevent?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129
    TGOHF said:
    Clearly, the advantage of resigning last thing on Saturday night is that Cummings is pissed when he anonymously briefs the media and makes an utter bellend of himself with nonsensical claims.
  • Scott_P said:



    This is the key line

    You can't trust Bozo

    Starting to sound like a desperate line of attack. Maybe Lavery should spend more time explaining Labour's Brexit policy.
  • Byronic said:

    murali_s said:

    Byronic said:

    FPT for YBard

    Corbyn has to come out now. completely in favour of revote and revoke, to staunch the bleeding of votes to the Lib Dems.

    It's too late for him to stop Labour being roundly beaten in any election, but right now he risks - as you say - Labour being supplanted as the opposition.

    Again I predicted this last week. If Britain post Bexitref copies Scotland post indyref, then the party most opposed to Brexit - Lib Dems - should greatly benefit from the polarisation, just as the Scots Tories benefited from being the hardcore Unionist party.

    "It's too late for him to stop Labour being roundly beaten in any election" - have you got a crystal ball or something? If this is how you feel, pile into Tory Majority at what for you would seem a generous 2/1. Free money no?
    Corbyn simply can't win. Ever. He can't win Scotland, he will never take seats in rich southern England, he's invisible in the shires, he's LOSING ground everywhere, he's an unelectable, Jew-hating, quasi-communist shitbag.

    Get. Rid. Of. Him.
    To be fair to Corbyn he has raised issues which the establishment politicians weren't interested in.

    From student debt to housing to buses.

    Irrelevancies perhaps to the smug haves but vital to millions.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,074
    edited September 7
    TGOHF said:
    As far as they will go, or an olive branch to negotiations? A lot of Tories who would be hurt by BXP standing will not be in that group, as he eagerly knows, but will a hard position from Boris appease Farage sufficiently to go easy on some less strident than the spartans?
  • TGOHF said:
    I knew that opendemocracy article had something in it. Unless the situation between the Liberals and Labour changes, Remain are in considerable trouble.
  • glwglw Posts: 5,372
    Scott_P said:



    This is the key line

    You can't trust Bozo

    Plainly the ERG lot do trust Bozo, as we see on here. What you should have said is that you shouldn't trust Bozo.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,167
    Scott_P said:



    This is the key line

    You can't trust Bozo

    And yet millions do because he promises them Brexit, which they expect whatever the cost.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,751
    If I was Boris I'd be a little concerned about my mid-term prospects as leader. The Tory Right are relishing their blood bath. I doubt they have much ideological respect for Boris but just see him as a useful tool for securing Hard Brexit. I can easily imagine them booting Boris out to be replaced with one of their own kind once his usefulness has ended.
  • eekeek Posts: 5,520
    AndyJS said:

    Hearing from a friend at the Times that the LDs are talking about a defection as well tonight

    Yes, there were rumours of it earlier, but nothing concrete.
    Hardly a rumour more a trailer...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,733
    Scott_P said:



    This is the key line

    You can't trust Bozo

    LOL! Labour's vote is collpasing as they bock the country from having a general election.

    If they really believe what they say about Boris they'd not be afraid to let the public pass their verdict on him...
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 8,306

    FPT after this was posted but on topic.

    I expect more to follow after Clarke's statement. It signals a walking-away.
    Bye then if so.

    Maybe the Wets can takeover the LDs. At least then when Brexit is behind us there's a party that could align with the Tories. Then the LDs can die again. ;)
    Good chance of Labour taking Hastings in context of a split Tory vote.
  • Cyclefree said:

    FPT


    @ydoethur said:

    "I think one point we are all forgetting - particularly when looking at the polling - is that acts that are illegal, unconstitutional or downright crazy are not necessarily unpopular. A few obvious examples spring to mind - Bonar Law's support for the UVF, Thatcher's use of the police without showing their numbers in the miners' strike, George III sacking Portland in 1783. And that's just in this country - de Gaulle's coup in 1958 would also be a good example. The key was the people doing the rule breaking were popular and those being hammered were not.

    Johnson remains personally popular due to his TV appearances, and he is offering to leave the EU which, like it or not, whether its supporters know what they're doing or not, is a popular programme. So the fact he is breaking every rule in the book and a number that aren't may not condemn him as it should."

    My response:-

    Indeed. It is one reason why I think his approach could win him the next GE.

    But it is still wrong. Breaking the law is wrong. And having a government which does this degrades our polity, degrades our country and should be criticised. Morality and legality do not depend on popularity. They matter more - in the end - than popularity. Without integrity we are nothing as a people or as a country, however unfashionable or unpopular it may be to say so.

    Except he has not broken the law. As two court cases have proved he has remained within the law. You may not like what he has done but given the example set by Bercow for ignoring precedent, to claim this is some uniquely evil act is very wide of the mark
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129
    Scott_P said:



    This is the key line

    You can't trust Bozo

    And yet he is more trusted than Corbyn.

    Of course, Lavery hasn't spotted that minor detail yet, but I'm willing to bet Swinson has.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,074
    Byronic said:


    It's too late for him to stop Labour being roundly beaten in any election, but right now he risks - as you say - Labour being supplanted as the opposition.

    That was the LD pitch last time. Second time's the charm?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,213

    Chris said:

    So what's the opinion of the Brexiteers here? Is Amber Rudd's resignation:
    (1) Quite good for Boris
    (2) Very good for Boris or
    (3) Orgasmically good for Boris?

    Neither here nor there. She's appeared quite unprincipled recently in any event and by Monday it will be forgotten.
    No true Brexiteer would say a thing like that.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,337
    kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:
    As far as they will go, or an olive branch to negotiations? A lot of Tories who would be hurt by BXP standing will not be in that group, as he eagerly knows, but will a hard position from Boris appease Farage sufficiently to go easy on some less strident than the spartans?
    It gives Farage the ability to soft pedal or hard throttle according to 'events'
  • tlg86 said:

    The independent Tories will be the official opposition soon.

    Pro European Conservative Party circa 1999.
  • eekeek Posts: 5,520

    TGOHF said:
    I knew that opendemocracy article had something in it. Unless the situation between the Liberals and Labour changes, Remain are in considerable trouble.
    It means there is zero point going for a general election.

    The best option is to find a suitable leader and call a do or die second referendum with say May's Deal as the leave option (as it's the only existing one).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,074

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    As the old world burns the new conservatives celebrate their poll leads.

    LOL. 14% lead in YouGov probably matters more than Rudd (maj 346) flouncing out.
    If you are right and BXP will forgive Boris for not getting us out by November, should his latest wheeze fail. The lead could otherwise be as ephemeral as those 10% leads May had earlier this year. Remember them?
    Difference is May wanted an extension. She pushed for it. On a free vote in March she voted for it, a minority of her party to do so. She voted again no deal, again on a free vote.

    Boris is a different kettle of fish altogether. If we're still in the EU come November it will show why Boris needs a majority, not that Boris wasn't a real Brexiteer. Actions like Rudd's will reinforce that.
    You say that, but Farage and his chums give off different noises. Are they wrong, or fibbing?
  • It might be only the start.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,335
    edited September 7
    Averages of tonight's polls so far:

    Con 33.7%
    Lab 24.7%
    LD 18.3%
    BRX 13.3%
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,337
    Scott_P said:
    Scoop is rather optimistic of them PM Smith now Heidi at conference was being openly discussed twice days ago lol
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952
    edited September 7

    Chris said:

    So what's the opinion of the Brexiteers here? Is Amber Rudd's resignation:
    (1) Quite good for Boris
    (2) Very good for Boris or
    (3) Orgasmically good for Boris?

    It really isnt any of those. Not least because it makes holding Rudd's seat a tall order
    So many people have not grasped what Dom Cummings clearly has grasped, and which I have been banging on about for several weeks

    Brexit is a revolution. It's way more than a political upheaval, it's an overturning of everything we understand about British elections, meanwhile, all received political opinions are rendered worthless. The only thing similar to this, in recent UK history, is Scotland post indyref, where Labour completely collapsed after a century of dominance - but Brexit is even bigger than that.

    So, yes, it doesn't matter if the Tories lose Guildford IF they can win Gateshead and Grimsby. And things that would once have badly damaged a prine minister -- his minister brother resigning, a Cabinet minister following, etc etc - no longer count for much, if they count for anything, because chaos is expected, and priced in. IT'S A REVOLUTION.
  • I must say I am thoroughly enjoying seeing all these political careers crash and burn. A mass clear out of these MPs at the next election will be most welcome.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:



    This is the key line

    You can't trust Bozo

    And yet millions do because he promises them Brexit, which they expect whatever the cost.
    Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn go for a picnic in the woods. Suddenly they look up and see a grizzly bear watching them with a hungry look on its face.

    They jump up and run. But the bear follows, and is clearly gaining, when Johnson stops and puts on trainers.

    'Are you crazy?' shouts Corbyn. 'They won't help you outrun the bear!'

    'Screw the bear,' replies Johnson, catching Corbyn up and effortlessly overtaking him, 'all I have to do is outrun you.'

    And because it is Corbyn he might well still outdo him on trust, integrity, competence...
  • kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:
    As far as they will go, or an olive branch to negotiations? A lot of Tories who would be hurt by BXP standing will not be in that group, as he eagerly knows, but will a hard position from Boris appease Farage sufficiently to go easy on some less strident than the spartans?
    Its pointless as Farage cannot make those voters go Conservative.

    Those that want to do so will do so irrespective of what Farage says.
This discussion has been closed.