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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A cunning ruse to persuade Corbyn to give Boris Johnson his ea

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited September 9 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A cunning ruse to persuade Corbyn to give Boris Johnson his early election or a damning indictment of the Cummings & Johnson strategy?

Exc: No10 has seen polling that means if there was an election now, Boris Johnson would do worse than Theresa May, according to Jason Stein, who was a Tory special advisor and Amber Rudd aide until Saturday night

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 5,520
    I suspect the humble address will prove to be more important today - for that will show Cummings both lying and conspiring to lie to the courts.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,168
    Seems increasingly possible that 2020 could see Trump ejected from the White House and Brexit cancelled. The year the populist uprising ends?
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,236
    eek said:

    I suspect the humble address will prove to be more important today - for that will show Cummings both lying and conspiring to lie to the courts.

    He did have a cumming plan.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 1,188
    edited September 9
    eek said:

    I suspect the humble address will prove to be more important today - for that will show Cummings both lying and conspiring to lie to the courts.

    Grieve could have pulled a magic, technicolour rabbit out of the hat here - or maybe not - too early to say.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,566

    Seems increasingly possible that 2020 could see Trump ejected from the White House and Brexit cancelled. The year the populist uprising ends?

    If he keeps tweeting bizarre cat videos, it might be sooner than that...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,791
    eek said:

    I suspect the humble address will prove to be more important today - for that will show Cummings both lying and conspiring to lie to the courts.

    If they wanted to do that, why would they leave a written record?
  • RobD said:

    eek said:

    I suspect the humble address will prove to be more important today - for that will show Cummings both lying and conspiring to lie to the courts.

    If they wanted to do that, why would they leave a written record?
    He's searching for online , chat-style communications rather than written records.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,081
    Scott_P said:
    Or announcing that he was cool with the proper brexit emergency motion but all this humble address shit is getting out of hand
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,520
    An opportunity for a family from Doonbeg to pose as Mike Pence's relatives for a large fee...

  • Goddamnit I'm in meetings until 5pm.
  • eek said:

    I suspect the humble address will prove to be more important today - for that will show Cummings both lying and conspiring to lie to the courts.

    Grieve could have pulled a magic, technicolour rabbit out of the hat here - too early to say.
    My hunch is - as per the "source close to Cummings" I mentioned on the last thread - that this motion would be seen as massive over-reach. Even if the Commons asks for Nikki da Costa's personal text messages, Number 10 would doubtless fight it in the courts (presumably on HRA right to privacy grounds. Ho ho).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,791

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    I suspect the humble address will prove to be more important today - for that will show Cummings both lying and conspiring to lie to the courts.

    If they wanted to do that, why would they leave a written record?
    He's searching for online , chat-style communications rather than written records.
    More wondering why you wouldn’t just have a face to face meeting?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,335
    There are probably Labour supporters on Twitter calling for the party to support an election after all in response to these numbers.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952
    edited September 9
    valleyboy said:
    This implies that the "rumour" from Number 10 might be a dummy and a feint, to get Corbyn to agree to a GE.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,337
    If today's twist is Bercow telling Grieve to go f himself it would be amusing
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 988
    edited September 9

    Scott_P said:
    Or announcing that he was cool with the proper brexit emergency motion but all this humble address shit is getting out of hand
    Retirement time at the election? (I slightly hesitantly add a smiley :smile: - but I can see an argument that if he's going to have his record trashed in a contested election campaign - some time after he previously said he'd quit - he might prefer the US speaking tour and doing the Sky paper review.

    That said, I suspect he's too invested in the current shenanigans to bow out now - he'd probably sit in front of BBC Parliament all day with a can of Special Brew, sounding like Sweary Bercow on Twitter :wink:

    (EDIT: In the light of further speculative tweets, I withdraw the smiley!)
  • eekeek Posts: 5,520
    edited September 9
    RobD said:

    eek said:

    I suspect the humble address will prove to be more important today - for that will show Cummings both lying and conspiring to lie to the courts.

    If they wanted to do that, why would they leave a written record?
    I still find it remarkable how happy people are to write things down which they previously might have thought twice about before not saying it down the pub.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,004
    Byronic said:

    valleyboy said:
    This implies that the "rumour" from Number 10 might be a dummy and a feint, to get Corbyn to agree to GE.
    YouGov don't do the Tories' polling - another firm does. The rumoured "nowcast" figures seem credible - the key is that there is a huge amount to play for in any campaign.
  • God Save The Queen.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,337
    Sally bercow in the gallery, hes stepping down at the election
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,566
    eek said:

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    I suspect the humble address will prove to be more important today - for that will show Cummings both lying and conspiring to lie to the courts.

    If they wanted to do that, why would they leave a written record?
    I still find it remarkable how happy people are to write things down which they previously might have thought twice about before not saying it down the pub.
    And equally remarkable how some in positions of power seem to believe they are above scrutiny.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,335

    If today's twist is Bercow telling Grieve to go f himself it would be amusing

    Why would he do that? They agree on most things.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,337
    AndyJS said:

    If today's twist is Bercow telling Grieve to go f himself it would be amusing

    Why would he do that? They agree on most things.
    He won't I guess but it would be very funny
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,791
    eek said:

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    I suspect the humble address will prove to be more important today - for that will show Cummings both lying and conspiring to lie to the courts.

    If they wanted to do that, why would they leave a written record?
    I still find it remarkable how happy people are to write things down which they previously might have thought twice about before not saying it down the pub.
    Not saying they should do it. But if you wanted to conspire about something like this, would you write it down?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,168

    eek said:

    I suspect the humble address will prove to be more important today - for that will show Cummings both lying and conspiring to lie to the courts.

    Grieve could have pulled a magic, technicolour rabbit out of the hat here - too early to say.
    My hunch is - as per the "source close to Cummings" I mentioned on the last thread - that this motion would be seen as massive over-reach. Even if the Commons asks for Nikki da Costa's personal text messages, Number 10 would doubtless fight it in the courts (presumably on HRA right to privacy grounds. Ho ho).
    If a personal device is used for Govt communications then is there any right to privacy? Shades of Hilary's emails
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,337

    eek said:

    I suspect the humble address will prove to be more important today - for that will show Cummings both lying and conspiring to lie to the courts.

    Grieve could have pulled a magic, technicolour rabbit out of the hat here - too early to say.
    My hunch is - as per the "source close to Cummings" I mentioned on the last thread - that this motion would be seen as massive over-reach. Even if the Commons asks for Nikki da Costa's personal text messages, Number 10 would doubtless fight it in the courts (presumably on HRA right to privacy grounds. Ho ho).
    If a personal device is used for Govt communications then is there any right to privacy? Shades of Hilary's emails
    Just delete them like Hillary to avoid scrutiny
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,791
    Scott_P said:
    Thank god they didn’t go down the Queen Anne route.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,863
    On topic, I'm sure Dominic Cummings has wargamed the Tories losing an election.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952
    That lady MP looked like an electrocuted griffin made out of leather
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,791
    Danny565 said:

    On topic, I'm sure Dominic Cummings has wargamed the Tories losing an election.

    Isn’t that the best outcome for the Tories?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952
    Tory gain Buckingham
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,635
    I wonder what May's private polling was telling her before she went in 2016....

    Johnson is going to bet the house on his campaigning ability....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,335
    Byronic said:

    That lady MP looked like an electrocuted griffin made out of leather

    MP for Guildford, the seat Boris said would "have to go".
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 50,091
    Bercow retiring at the next election, or Oct 31st, which ever comes first...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,335
    Bercow announces he's going by 31st October.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,673
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Thank god they didn’t go down the Queen Anne route.
    I hope someone has sedated Andrew Lilico.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 7,663
    Bercow screwing Brexiteers up to the end.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 35,409
    Bercow to stand down Oct 31 if no vote for GE tonight.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 828
    The idea keeps popping up that 10 Downing Street/political parties have private information about polling which means that X is the case. This must always be no more than magical thinking. Eminent people who can tell us the result pretty exactly at 10.01 pm on election night are scratching their heads and saying 'Not a clue mate' at the moment. I believe them.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952

    Bercow screwing Brexiteers up to the end.....

    Is he? If he wanted to F them up he would just stay in situ till Brexit was done, or undone
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,335
    I hope Lindsay Hoyle is the next speaker.
  • eekeek Posts: 5,520
    RobD said:

    eek said:

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    I suspect the humble address will prove to be more important today - for that will show Cummings both lying and conspiring to lie to the courts.

    If they wanted to do that, why would they leave a written record?
    I still find it remarkable how happy people are to write things down which they previously might have thought twice about before not saying it down the pub.
    Not saying they should do it. But if you wanted to conspire about something like this, would you write it down?
    Nope I would be doing it in a private room at a pub or hotel...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,335

    Bercow screwing Brexiteers up to the end.....

    How so?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,004
    Ridiculous argument from Bercow. Why should a new Parliament be saddled with the choice of an old one?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 26,696

    eek said:

    I suspect the humble address will prove to be more important today - for that will show Cummings both lying and conspiring to lie to the courts.

    Grieve could have pulled a magic, technicolour rabbit out of the hat here - too early to say.
    My hunch is - as per the "source close to Cummings" I mentioned on the last thread - that this motion would be seen as massive over-reach. Even if the Commons asks for Nikki da Costa's personal text messages, Number 10 would doubtless fight it in the courts (presumably on HRA right to privacy grounds. Ho ho).
    If a personal device is used for Govt communications then is there any right to privacy? Shades of Hilary's emails
    Just delete them like Hillary to avoid scrutiny
    Can't they just delete/shred everything before the Humble Address is heard?

    "There is nothing to deliver..."
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952
    Jesus Christ he's weeping. Grow a pair
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,004
    AndyJS said:

    I hope Lindsay Hoyle is the next speaker.

    Seconded, my post below notwithstanding .
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,168
    AndyJS said:

    Bercow screwing Brexiteers up to the end.....

    How so?
    A new anti-Brexit speaker can now be chosen even if the Conservatives stand in Buckingham
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,863
    Why. Is He. Speaking. So Slowly.
  • Ridiculous argument from Bercow. Why should a new Parliament be saddled with the choice of an old one?

    Perhaps that is his last hand grenade? A speaker appointed by a house full of anti-johnsonites

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,004
    Danny565 said:

    Why. Is He. Speaking. So Slowly.

    He. Is. Talking. About. Himself.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952

    AndyJS said:

    Bercow screwing Brexiteers up to the end.....

    How so?
    A new anti-Brexit speaker can now be chosen even if the Conservatives stand in Buckingham
    They won't find anyone willing to be as partisan as Bercow. I doubt such a person exists.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 35,409

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Thank god they didn’t go down the Queen Anne route.
    I hope someone has sedated Andrew Lilico.
    He was describing the Cummings-Johnson plan as “text book” so his grip on reality may be even more tenuous than previously believed....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,335

    AndyJS said:

    Bercow screwing Brexiteers up to the end.....

    How so?
    A new anti-Brexit speaker can now be chosen even if the Conservatives stand in Buckingham
    I thought the speaker was supposed to be neutral.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952
    AndyJS said:
    Dan is right, for once. This is excruciating. Bercow is a terrible narcissist.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,335
    Byronic said:

    AndyJS said:

    Bercow screwing Brexiteers up to the end.....

    How so?
    A new anti-Brexit speaker can now be chosen even if the Conservatives stand in Buckingham
    They won't find anyone willing to be as partisan as Bercow. I doubt such a person exists.
    Lindsay Hoyle is marvellously un-partisan, although he's from the Labour side.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 9,931

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Thank god they didn’t go down the Queen Anne route.
    I hope someone has sedated Andrew Lilico.
    Andrew Lilico. Clever man. Four degrees. No common sense. Will believe anything supplied by a reputable source even if it is gibberish. He's what I try not to become (although I occasionally fail... :( )
  • AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Bercow screwing Brexiteers up to the end.....

    How so?
    A new anti-Brexit speaker can now be chosen even if the Conservatives stand in Buckingham
    I thought the speaker was supposed to be neutral.
    So did we all until this dreadful man

  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,791

    Ridiculous argument from Bercow. Why should a new Parliament be saddled with the choice of an old one?

    Perhaps that is his last hand grenade? A speaker appointed by a house full of anti-johnsonites

    Isn’t there the chance for an election at the start of each session?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 3,131

    AndyJS said:

    Bercow screwing Brexiteers up to the end.....

    How so?
    A new anti-Brexit speaker can now be chosen even if the Conservatives stand in Buckingham
    What a stupid post. You clearly don't even understand what the role of the Speaker is meant to be.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 35,409
    AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:

    AndyJS said:

    Bercow screwing Brexiteers up to the end.....

    How so?
    A new anti-Brexit speaker can now be chosen even if the Conservatives stand in Buckingham
    They won't find anyone willing to be as partisan as Bercow. I doubt such a person exists.
    Lindsay Hoyle is marvellously un-partisan, although he's from the Labour side.
    Another one for Lindsay Hoyle - first and foremost a Parliamentarian.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,335
    An
    AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:

    AndyJS said:

    Bercow screwing Brexiteers up to the end.....

    How so?
    A new anti-Brexit speaker can now be chosen even if the Conservatives stand in Buckingham
    They won't find anyone willing to be as partisan as Bercow. I doubt such a person exists.
    Lindsay Hoyle is marvellously un-partisan, although he's from the Labour side.
    The Tories will need to appoint another deputy if it is Hoyle though, the balance of 4 votes being taken out (2 from the Tories, 2 from Labour) remains.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,683
    Another vain, attention seeking retirement announcement. It’s instagram for the soon to be elderly
  • AndyJS said:

    Bercow screwing Brexiteers up to the end.....

    How so?
    A new anti-Brexit speaker can now be chosen even if the Conservatives stand in Buckingham
    Bercow's problem is not that he has been pro or anti Brexit nor that he has been pro or anti Tory/Labour. It has been that he has both politicized and personalised the position and has acted as if he was making the rules rather than interpreting them. Over-ruling the advice of the Clerks and decrying precedent were just two examples out of many.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,236
    AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:

    AndyJS said:

    Bercow screwing Brexiteers up to the end.....

    How so?
    A new anti-Brexit speaker can now be chosen even if the Conservatives stand in Buckingham
    They won't find anyone willing to be as partisan as Bercow. I doubt such a person exists.
    Lindsay Hoyle is marvellously un-partisan, although he's from the Labour side.
    Didn't JRM have aspirations of becoming Speaker. But then we would need a bed. Bercow put paid to that.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 1,879
    nice standing ovation for a bloke who bullies women.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,084
    valleyboy said:
    I really think that puts the LDS in above 80 territory
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,791
    dr_spyn said:
    Perhaps because applauding in the Commons is supposed to be against the rules? :p
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 8,158
    Bercow going - at last some good news.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,084
    AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:

    AndyJS said:

    Bercow screwing Brexiteers up to the end.....

    How so?
    A new anti-Brexit speaker can now be chosen even if the Conservatives stand in Buckingham
    They won't find anyone willing to be as partisan as Bercow. I doubt such a person exists.
    Lindsay Hoyle is marvellously un-partisan, although he's from the Labour side.
    Dominic Grieve..he reckons he will get back in doesnt he/
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,167
    Next Up Grieve.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,791
    The fact that only one side are applauding says all you need to know about Bercow. Let’s hope the next one is less divisive.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,335
    Are we sure Bercow is really going. He might change his mind on Oct 30 !
  • So what should I do about my 500/1 bet on Bercow as next PM?
  • RobD said:

    Ridiculous argument from Bercow. Why should a new Parliament be saddled with the choice of an old one?

    Perhaps that is his last hand grenade? A speaker appointed by a house full of anti-johnsonites

    Isn’t there the chance for an election at the start of each session?
    Yes. The Speaker is confirmed after each election.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,014
    I don't think much of Corbyn's judgement but if he is swayed by reports of private Tory polling, rather than having his own, then I will have to revise my opinion down.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,235
    Self-aggrandising twot. Looking forward to Lindsay Hoyle.
  • RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Thank god they didn’t go down the Queen Anne route.
    Infinitely better that than breaking the law.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,235

    AndyJS said:

    Bercow screwing Brexiteers up to the end.....

    How so?
    A new anti-Brexit speaker can now be chosen even if the Conservatives stand in Buckingham
    Bercow's problem is not that he has been pro or anti Brexit nor that he has been pro or anti Tory/Labour. It has been that he has both politicized and personalised the position and has acted as if he was making the rules rather than interpreting them. Over-ruling the advice of the Clerks and decrying precedent were just two examples out of many.
    Yep.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,786

    AndyJS said:

    Bercow screwing Brexiteers up to the end.....

    How so?
    A new anti-Brexit speaker can now be chosen even if the Conservatives stand in Buckingham
    Bercow's problem is not that he has been pro or anti Brexit nor that he has been pro or anti Tory/Labour. It has been that he has both politicized and personalised the position and has acted as if he was making the rules rather than interpreting them. Over-ruling the advice of the Clerks and decrying precedent were just two examples out of many.
    Bercow's problem is he championed backbenchers against the government.
  • Classy response from Gove, given their spats over the years.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,013
    Good speech by Gove. A nice touch.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952
    Oh get on with it

    Crivvens.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 26,696

    AndyJS said:

    Bercow screwing Brexiteers up to the end.....

    How so?
    A new anti-Brexit speaker can now be chosen even if the Conservatives stand in Buckingham
    What a stupid post. You clearly don't even understand what the role of the Speaker is meant to be.
    I think your comment would be better addresed to John Bercow.....
  • AndyJS said:

    Bercow screwing Brexiteers up to the end.....

    How so?
    A new anti-Brexit speaker can now be chosen even if the Conservatives stand in Buckingham
    Bercow's problem is not that he has been pro or anti Brexit nor that he has been pro or anti Tory/Labour. It has been that he has both politicized and personalised the position and has acted as if he was making the rules rather than interpreting them. Over-ruling the advice of the Clerks and decrying precedent were just two examples out of many.
    Bercow's problem is he championed backbenchers against the government.
    Nope. He championed himself and no one else.
  • Like all totalitarian states before, time has crumbled the foundations until the regime falls.

    The Peoples Republic of Bercow is no more.

    I've got a vote.... and what a damn awful time to get it given the crap on offer!
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,168

    AndyJS said:

    Bercow screwing Brexiteers up to the end.....

    How so?
    A new anti-Brexit speaker can now be chosen even if the Conservatives stand in Buckingham
    Bercow's problem is not that he has been pro or anti Brexit nor that he has been pro or anti Tory/Labour. It has been that he has both politicized and personalised the position and has acted as if he was making the rules rather than interpreting them. Over-ruling the advice of the Clerks and decrying precedent were just two examples out of many.
    Bercow's problem is he championed backbenchers against the government.
    Which has been wonderful for reasserting the strength of Parliament
This discussion has been closed.