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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » When the betting markets get it wrong boy do they get it wrong

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited September 10 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » When the betting markets get it wrong boy do they get it wrong

The charts above show how even the betting markets can get it spectacularly wrong. Below is the spreads offered by Sporting Index a few hours before the polls opened for the 2015 general election.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • First insomniac.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,081
    edited September 10
    Fun thread. You could also have mentioned the No Deal bubble we had recently between the PM playing his cards and everybody else playing theirs.
  • In all fairness, betting on the day is the roller coaster event as shown. What is more mundance is the markets in the run up several weeks ahead. I had money on Labout to win Peterborough and slept through the drama (though did wake at one point and thought I'd lost). It pays to have a cool head on the night....there should be some good bargains to be had...though I dont know where at this stage...Tory MPs will be a fascinating market (as usual)
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,786
    edited September 10
    From header: For Brexit referendum the spike just after 10.30pm was down to serial Westminster loser Nigel Farage calling it for Remain

    Not just Nigel Farage. Telegraph cartoonist Matt reported that Number 10 told the editor just before polls closed that Remain had won by 55 to 45.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,786
    Frightening thought: Boris's resignation honours list will include a peerage for Dominic Cummings.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,988
    Good morning, everyone.

    Some very good graphs there, Mr. Eagles.

    I put a small sum on Labour getting a majority (a Mr. Meeks' tip) and on the Conservatives getting under a certain seat total (317, I think).
  • The division list from the FTPA motion are fascinating. Mass abstension by the Tory rebels. We know most of them want the whip back yet... I think the abstentions are telling about how they see the power dynamic between themselves and Boris. On that topic do catch the full but short speech from Sir Alan Duncan in last night's debate. It wasxlargely heard in erie silence.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/sep/10/did-your-mp-vote-for-an-early-general-election
  • Frightening thought: Boris's resignation honours list will include a peerage for Dominic Cummings.

    A powerful argument for the abolition of the House of Lords.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182
    The only bet I’d be confident of making on a GE in the next few months is laying a Labour majority. After that, probably a hung parliament but the odds aren’t attractive.

    The spectrum of final poll tallies is very wide, yet alone the potential seat spreads - which is vast.

    This occasion it will be even more so as we’ll be getting three/four way marginals, tactical voting, surprise results and various applecarts overturned in all sorts of unusual places the likes of which we’ve never seen before.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182

    From header: For Brexit referendum the spike just after 10.30pm was down to serial Westminster loser Nigel Farage calling it for Remain

    Not just Nigel Farage. Telegraph cartoonist Matt reported that Number 10 told the editor just before polls closed that Remain had won by 55 to 45.


    They believed Calamity Cooper.

    That was based on a final day-of-poll opinion poll, which was called out as likely bullshit on here the same morning.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,640

    The division list from the FTPA motion are fascinating. Mass abstension by the Tory rebels. We know most of them want the whip back yet... I think the abstentions are telling about how they see the power dynamic between themselves and Boris. On that topic do catch the full but short speech from Sir Alan Duncan in last night's debate. It wasxlargely heard in erie silence.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/sep/10/did-your-mp-vote-for-an-early-general-election

    So, if I read the division list correctly, the party most likely to make gains (the LDs) was the one most opposed to an election.

    It's a strange world in which we live in.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,549

    Frightening thought: Boris's resignation honours list will include a peerage for Dominic Cummings.

    Well, let's see the propagation emails etc first. It could be the Tower rather than the Lords.
  • In North Carolina Do-Over Vote, a Reliable Republican District Is Up for Grabs https://nyti.ms/34xlScv
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,168
    Appalling behaviour by opposition MPs, but the progrogue decision is equally bad. And completely unnecessary given the government has had to accept the No Deal bill anyway.
  • Foxy said:

    Frightening thought: Boris's resignation honours list will include a peerage for Dominic Cummings.

    Well, let's see the propagation emails etc first. It could be the Tower rather than the Lords.
    Whatsapp messages are permanently deletable.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,640

    Foxy said:

    Frightening thought: Boris's resignation honours list will include a peerage for Dominic Cummings.

    Well, let's see the propagation emails etc first. It could be the Tower rather than the Lords.
    Whatsapp messages are permanently deletable.
    That may be what they tell you, but they will do nightly backups of their database, and I'd wager you that when you "delete" a message, all it does is at a deleted flag in the database table.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,673

    Foxy said:

    Frightening thought: Boris's resignation honours list will include a peerage for Dominic Cummings.

    Well, let's see the propagation emails etc first. It could be the Tower rather than the Lords.
    Whatsapp messages are permanently deletable.
    The government lawyers will already have seen them for the court cases last week.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,549

    Foxy said:

    Frightening thought: Boris's resignation honours list will include a peerage for Dominic Cummings.

    Well, let's see the propagation emails etc first. It could be the Tower rather than the Lords.
    Whatsapp messages are permanently deletable.
    Yes, it will be an interesting investigation.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,168
    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Frightening thought: Boris's resignation honours list will include a peerage for Dominic Cummings.

    Well, let's see the propagation emails etc first. It could be the Tower rather than the Lords.
    Whatsapp messages are permanently deletable.
    That may be what they tell you, but they will do nightly backups of their database, and I'd wager you that when you "delete" a message, all it does is at a deleted flag in the database table.
    Surely it’s a document in a NoSQL database? ;-)
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 1,188
    edited September 10
    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Frightening thought: Boris's resignation honours list will include a peerage for Dominic Cummings.

    Well, let's see the propagation emails etc first. It could be the Tower rather than the Lords.
    Whatsapp messages are permanently deletable.
    That may be what they tell you, but they will do nightly backups of their database, and I'd wager you that when you "delete" a message, all it does is at a deleted flag in the database table.
    I was wondering about this, but then we would have the issue of whether WhatsApp would comply with any legal, backed up by state power, demand to release the info.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,168

    In North Carolina Do-Over Vote, a Reliable Republican District Is Up for Grabs https://nyti.ms/34xlScv

    Why do American headlines always feel the need to Capitalise Every Word? Always looks really odd
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,640

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Frightening thought: Boris's resignation honours list will include a peerage for Dominic Cummings.

    Well, let's see the propagation emails etc first. It could be the Tower rather than the Lords.
    Whatsapp messages are permanently deletable.
    That may be what they tell you, but they will do nightly backups of their database, and I'd wager you that when you "delete" a message, all it does is at a deleted flag in the database table.
    I was wondering about this, but then we would have the issue of whether WhatsApp would comply with any legal, backed up by state power, demand to release the info.
    Facebook owns WhatsApp and they are very helpful with the authorities in the US. Now, there may be different policies for WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger, but it suggests the corporate culture values cooperation (in the US).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,640

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Frightening thought: Boris's resignation honours list will include a peerage for Dominic Cummings.

    Well, let's see the propagation emails etc first. It could be the Tower rather than the Lords.
    Whatsapp messages are permanently deletable.
    That may be what they tell you, but they will do nightly backups of their database, and I'd wager you that when you "delete" a message, all it does is at a deleted flag in the database table.
    Surely it’s a document in a NoSQL database? ;-)
    I suspect, and I could be wrong, that it will be SQL. WhatsApp messages are small and text based. And an SQL based system could be sharded easily, one would think. So, I reckon it would be the most efficient way to store them.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 1,123
    For those who were suggesting that Mr Johnson could by ammendment organise a vote for GE that only required a normal majority: he was only able to get 293 votes for a GE and that is including the DUP. So even if this was a realistic process he still would not have gained enough votes.
  • I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair

    Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others

    I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost

    Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen

    And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,780
    Foxy said:

    Frightening thought: Boris's resignation honours list will include a peerage for Dominic Cummings.

    Well, let's see the propagation emails etc first. It could be the Tower rather than the Lords.
    At least some of these emails were already produced in the Scottish Court case in the interests of full disclosure. The QC for Cherry opposed them being received but made a point of reading them all to the court (and the press in attendance) before doing so. The judge allowed them in so they will be available to the Supreme Court in due course.

    I think that they were the source of Lord Brodie's question last week about whether "high politics" can also involve "low cunning".
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,640

    I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair

    Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others

    I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost

    Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen

    And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West

    As Cromwell said in 1653:

    Ye sordid prostitutes, have you not defil’d this sacred place and turned the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral purposes and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; you were deputed here by the people to get grievances redress’d, are yourselves become the greatest grievance.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 1,188
    edited September 10
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Frightening thought: Boris's resignation honours list will include a peerage for Dominic Cummings.

    Well, let's see the propagation emails etc first. It could be the Tower rather than the Lords.
    Whatsapp messages are permanently deletable.
    That may be what they tell you, but they will do nightly backups of their database, and I'd wager you that when you "delete" a message, all it does is at a deleted flag in the database table.
    I was wondering about this, but then we would have the issue of whether WhatsApp would comply with any legal, backed up by state power, demand to release the info.
    Facebook owns WhatsApp and they are very helpful with the authorities in the US. Now, there may be different policies for WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger, but it suggests the corporate culture values cooperation (in the US).
    Yes, this is interesting ; I suppose I was thinking back to cases where US companies felt no such obligations overseas. This question could be very important at the Supreme Court next month.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,795

    The division list from the FTPA motion are fascinating. Mass abstension by the Tory rebels. We know most of them want the whip back yet... I think the abstentions are telling about how they see the power dynamic between themselves and Boris. On that topic do catch the full but short speech from Sir Alan Duncan in last night's debate. It wasxlargely heard in erie silence.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/sep/10/did-your-mp-vote-for-an-early-general-election

    Do you have a link to the speech?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,780
    On topic an excellent header. I was first attracted to this site because I believed that the smart money might give a better indication of how things were really going than our banal and all too often ignorant MSM. It appears that hope was not particularly well placed.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 1,188
    edited September 10
    Who owns Telegram and Signal, which seem like great lengths to go to to hide government business ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,780
    rcs1000 said:

    I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair

    Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others

    I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost

    Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen

    And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West

    As Cromwell said in 1653:

    Ye sordid prostitutes, have you not defil’d this sacred place and turned the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral purposes and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; you were deputed here by the people to get grievances redress’d, are yourselves become the greatest grievance.
    He was spot on. And their reluctance to face their employers is telling.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 1,123
    rcs1000 said:

    The division list from the FTPA motion are fascinating. Mass abstension by the Tory rebels. We know most of them want the whip back yet... I think the abstentions are telling about how they see the power dynamic between themselves and Boris. On that topic do catch the full but short speech from Sir Alan Duncan in last night's debate. It wasxlargely heard in erie silence.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/sep/10/did-your-mp-vote-for-an-early-general-election

    So, if I read the division list correctly, the party most likely to make gains (the LDs) was the one most opposed to an election.

    It's a strange world in which we live in.
    You can collect $1 in October or $3 in November. You have to decide now. What do you choose?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,795
    On topic good thread. I have often said that it perplexes me when I hear "the betting markets are saying" about some political event as though they impart some great wisdom.

    It is usually an event that we here are fighting like cats in a sack and have no idea about and if I may say we are quite an informed group so how on earth would "the betting markets" know better?
  • I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair

    Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others

    I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost

    Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen

    And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West

    I would put most MPs in the category of 'ordinary decent people' rather than venal. Corbyn, Bercow and Grieve have all simply done their job - holding the government to account, allowing the Commons to have its say as the instrument of the British people, and working cross-party to prevent the government forcing a no deal Brexit on us, respectively. A venal parliament would be one where MPs simply turn up and collect their salary and allow the government to trash our country unopposed.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,256
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Frightening thought: Boris's resignation honours list will include a peerage for Dominic Cummings.

    Well, let's see the propagation emails etc first. It could be the Tower rather than the Lords.
    Whatsapp messages are permanently deletable.
    That may be what they tell you, but they will do nightly backups of their database, and I'd wager you that when you "delete" a message, all it does is at a deleted flag in the database table.
    I was wondering about this, but then we would have the issue of whether WhatsApp would comply with any legal, backed up by state power, demand to release the info.
    Facebook owns WhatsApp and they are very helpful with the authorities in the US. Now, there may be different policies for WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger, but it suggests the corporate culture values cooperation (in the US).
    Are there any prominent anti Brexit, anti Conservatives in positions of influence in the company? :trollface:
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,673
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair

    Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others

    I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost

    Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen

    And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West

    As Cromwell said in 1653:

    Ye sordid prostitutes, have you not defil’d this sacred place and turned the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral purposes and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; you were deputed here by the people to get grievances redress’d, are yourselves become the greatest grievance.
    He was spot on. And their reluctance to face their employers is telling.
    MPs have sat for just two years in this Parliament. What’s the hurry for a fresh election? It’s not as though there’s any particular reason to expect a radically different result.
  • rcs1000 said:

    I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair

    Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others

    I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost

    Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen

    And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West

    As Cromwell said in 1653:

    Ye sordid prostitutes, have you not defil’d this sacred place and turned the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral purposes and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; you were deputed here by the people to get grievances redress’d, are yourselves become the greatest grievance.
    Perfect.

    Let anyone on here defend any mps behaviour yesterday - we need to unite in our condemnation of them all
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,780
    eristdoof said:

    For those who were suggesting that Mr Johnson could by ammendment organise a vote for GE that only required a normal majority: he was only able to get 293 votes for a GE and that is including the DUP. So even if this was a realistic process he still would not have gained enough votes.

    We simply don't have a government. I find it bewildering that people constantly repeat that Boris is the first PM to lose his first 5 votes as if it was indicative of some incompetence or carelessness on his part. He is in reality about 30 short of a majority and has been since he got the keys to Number 10.

    I don't it is ever desirable to have no functioning government but it is particularly unfortunate at the moment when some things of moderate importance are going on.
  • rcs1000 said:

    I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair

    Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others

    I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost

    Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen

    And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West

    As Cromwell said in 1653:

    Ye sordid prostitutes, have you not defil’d this sacred place and turned the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral purposes and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; you were deputed here by the people to get grievances redress’d, are yourselves become the greatest grievance.
    Perfect.

    Let anyone on here defend any mps behaviour yesterday - we need to unite in our condemnation of them all
    See below. I am not climbing aboard this particular trip to the stoning ground.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 26,696
    eristdoof said:

    For those who were suggesting that Mr Johnson could by ammendment organise a vote for GE that only required a normal majority: he was only able to get 293 votes for a GE and that is including the DUP. So even if this was a realistic process he still would not have gained enough votes.

    The notion was a VONC that he lost, where a simple majority for losing would suffice - and where the 293 would have to be bettered by those outside the Conservative Party expressing confidence in the PM.....
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,014
    DavidL said:

    On topic an excellent header. I was first attracted to this site because I believed that the smart money might give a better indication of how things were really going than our banal and all too often ignorant MSM. It appears that hope was not particularly well placed.

    I think there are individuals on here who make money from the fact that the betting markets as a whole are wrong so often. So there's still some value from people looking at where the consensus might be wrong.

    Hearing about last night on the radio this morning makes me feel shaken. Our democracy is falling to pieces. We're inflicting terrible harm upon ourselves by our unwillingness to compromise.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182
    FPT, good point by EiT that the next Parliament is likely to be even more hung than this one *and* the quality of MPs even worse, as those whom are returned on a Tory/Labour ticket - still the vast majority - will be more ideological.

    I’m struggling to see any resolution achievable through a GE at the moment.
  • I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair

    Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others

    I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost

    Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen

    And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West

    I would put most MPs in the category of 'ordinary decent people' rather than venal. Corbyn, Bercow and Grieve have all simply done their job - holding the government to account, allowing the Commons to have its say as the instrument of the British people, and working cross-party to prevent the government forcing a no deal Brexit on us, respectively. A venal parliament would be one where MPs simply turn up and collect their salary and allow the government to trash our country unopposed.
    All the mps trashed our Country last night in a display of abject irresponsibility
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182
    eristdoof said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The division list from the FTPA motion are fascinating. Mass abstension by the Tory rebels. We know most of them want the whip back yet... I think the abstentions are telling about how they see the power dynamic between themselves and Boris. On that topic do catch the full but short speech from Sir Alan Duncan in last night's debate. It wasxlargely heard in erie silence.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/sep/10/did-your-mp-vote-for-an-early-general-election

    So, if I read the division list correctly, the party most likely to make gains (the LDs) was the one most opposed to an election.

    It's a strange world in which we live in.
    You can collect $1 in October or $3 in November. You have to decide now. What do you choose?
    I choose January, where I currently could be collecting almost a four figure sum.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,780

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair

    Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others

    I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost

    Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen

    And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West

    As Cromwell said in 1653:

    Ye sordid prostitutes, have you not defil’d this sacred place and turned the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral purposes and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; you were deputed here by the people to get grievances redress’d, are yourselves become the greatest grievance.
    He was spot on. And their reluctance to face their employers is telling.
    MPs have sat for just two years in this Parliament. What’s the hurry for a fresh election? It’s not as though there’s any particular reason to expect a radically different result.
    The hurry is the lack of a government. If we had a majority or a stable coalition with a majority there would be no hurry at all. Instead we have absolute chaos, a government who cannot pass any bills, an opposition who seek to make governing ever more impossible and to tie the hands of a government seeking to negotiate on the country's behalf. I accept that there is no guarantee that the next Parliament will be any better but this self indulgent buffoonery has to stop.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 1,123

    eristdoof said:

    For those who were suggesting that Mr Johnson could by ammendment organise a vote for GE that only required a normal majority: he was only able to get 293 votes for a GE and that is including the DUP. So even if this was a realistic process he still would not have gained enough votes.

    The notion was a VONC that he lost, where a simple majority for losing would suffice - and where the 293 would have to be bettered by those outside the Conservative Party expressing confidence in the PM.....
    That was the variant yesterday.

    Last week the wheeze was to pass some kind of ammendment that called for a GE withouth the 2/3s majority. That would have failed.
  • I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair

    Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others

    I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost

    Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen

    And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West

    I would put most MPs in the category of 'ordinary decent people' rather than venal. Corbyn, Bercow and Grieve have all simply done their job - holding the government to account, allowing the Commons to have its say as the instrument of the British people, and working cross-party to prevent the government forcing a no deal Brexit on us, respectively. A venal parliament would be one where MPs simply turn up and collect their salary and allow the government to trash our country unopposed.
    All the mps trashed our Country last night in a display of abject irresponsibility
    How? By closing the door to a disastrous no deal Brexit? I would say that was highly responsible behaviour.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,640

    Who owns Telegram and Signal, which seem like great lengths to go to to hide government business ?

    Telegram is Russian.

    I don't know about Signal.
  • I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair

    Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others

    I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost

    Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen

    And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West

    I would put most MPs in the category of 'ordinary decent people' rather than venal. Corbyn, Bercow and Grieve have all simply done their job - holding the government to account, allowing the Commons to have its say as the instrument of the British people, and working cross-party to prevent the government forcing a no deal Brexit on us, respectively. A venal parliament would be one where MPs simply turn up and collect their salary and allow the government to trash our country unopposed.
    All the mps trashed our Country last night in a display of abject irresponsibility
    That's one way of looking it. Another is that high partisanship, high emotion and manoeuvres rather than resolution are a logical consequence of plebiscitary democracy attempting to replace parliament, followed by executive contempt of parliament.
  • JameiJamei Posts: 11
    If there is no election until January how will the government pass a budget later in the autumn?
  • rcs1000 said:

    Who owns Telegram and Signal, which seem like great lengths to go to to hide government business ?

    Telegram is Russian.

    I don't know about Signal.
    Marvellous irony.
  • DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    For those who were suggesting that Mr Johnson could by ammendment organise a vote for GE that only required a normal majority: he was only able to get 293 votes for a GE and that is including the DUP. So even if this was a realistic process he still would not have gained enough votes.

    We simply don't have a government. I find it bewildering that people constantly repeat that Boris is the first PM to lose his first 5 votes as if it was indicative of some incompetence or carelessness on his part. He is in reality about 30 short of a majority and has been since he got the keys to Number 10.

    I don't it is ever desirable to have no functioning government but it is particularly unfortunate at the moment when some things of moderate importance are going on.
    This is misleading, even with a deal or no deal policy he could easily have not lost any votes yet.

    There was no need for the half hearted prorogation, it doesnt help deliver Brexit, all it did was make the support of 21 MPs untenable.

    There was no need to arrange a meeting with Hammond to update him and then cancel at the last minute. It doesnt help deliver Brexit, it just shows the contempt the PM has for disagreement.

    There was no need for the Leader of the House to visibly disrespect the House of Commons, it doesnt help the government, it just shows the contempt he has for parliament.

    It is his attitude and constant deceit and game playing that has cost him his majority so early on. It would not have survived the no deal part of his policy regardless but he could have had at least a further month to get a deal were he capable and willing to do so.
  • I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair

    Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others

    I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost

    Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen

    And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West

    I would put most MPs in the category of 'ordinary decent people' rather than venal. Corbyn, Bercow and Grieve have all simply done their job - holding the government to account, allowing the Commons to have its say as the instrument of the British people, and working cross-party to prevent the government forcing a no deal Brexit on us, respectively. A venal parliament would be one where MPs simply turn up and collect their salary and allow the government to trash our country unopposed.
    All the mps trashed our Country last night in a display of abject irresponsibility
    How? By closing the door to a disastrous no deal Brexit? I would say that was highly responsible behaviour.
    If you cannot see how appalling yesterday's behaviour was and the media coverage this morning confirms it you are playing the worst kind of politics

    This is not about who is right or wrong, this is about the image of the Mother of Parliaments trashing its reputation in front of the country and world wide
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 1,123
    Jamei said:

    If there is no election until January how will the government pass a budget later in the autumn?

    Good question. Furthermore, in the past the Budget was an automatic VoC in the government, if it failed parliament was immediately dissolved and a new GE held.

    What is the rule under the FTPA? Does a budget failing mean an election without the "14 days to find another PM"? Does this also apply to the Queens Speech?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,988
    Mr. Above, does the PM retain his 100% losing record of Commons votes?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,549

    I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair

    Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others

    I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost

    Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen

    And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West

    I would put most MPs in the category of 'ordinary decent people' rather than venal. Corbyn, Bercow and Grieve have all simply done their job - holding the government to account, allowing the Commons to have its say as the instrument of the British people, and working cross-party to prevent the government forcing a no deal Brexit on us, respectively. A venal parliament would be one where MPs simply turn up and collect their salary and allow the government to trash our country unopposed.
    All the mps trashed our Country last night in a display of abject irresponsibility
    No they didnt.

    They insisted that the government publish its risk assessment for No Deal, so that people can prepare.

    They insisted that the government produce evidence that it has not lied to Queen and Courts.

    It has insisted that the PM is not above the law.

    It has objected unsuccessfully against being suspended during a national political crisis.

    It was a good day in Parliament. MPs done good.
  • Frightening thought: Boris's resignation honours list will include a peerage for Dominic Cummings.

    I would have thought Cummings might be angling for King or perhaps Emperor based on his actions so far.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,626

    I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair

    Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others

    I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost

    Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen

    And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West

    I would put most MPs in the category of 'ordinary decent people' rather than venal. Corbyn, Bercow and Grieve have all simply done their job - holding the government to account, allowing the Commons to have its say as the instrument of the British people, and working cross-party to prevent the government forcing a no deal Brexit on us, respectively. A venal parliament would be one where MPs simply turn up and collect their salary and allow the government to trash our country unopposed.
    All the mps trashed our Country last night in a display of abject irresponsibility
    I’d exclude Ian Austin and Ivan Lewis from that.

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 145
    To what extent do some of these markets reflect punters betting with their hearts rather than heads? You lot are the best political bettors out there. But even then it’s sometimes hard for me to disentangle what you think will happen from what you want to happen (Mr Meeks being a notable exception to that).
  • TGOHF said:

    I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair

    Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others

    I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost

    Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen

    And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West

    I would put most MPs in the category of 'ordinary decent people' rather than venal. Corbyn, Bercow and Grieve have all simply done their job - holding the government to account, allowing the Commons to have its say as the instrument of the British people, and working cross-party to prevent the government forcing a no deal Brexit on us, respectively. A venal parliament would be one where MPs simply turn up and collect their salary and allow the government to trash our country unopposed.
    All the mps trashed our Country last night in a display of abject irresponsibility
    I’d exclude Ian Austin and Ivan Lewis from that.

    Yes - they were powerful
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,564
    The only comments I've heard around here about Brexit are in line with the following …

    (1) Why are we asking for another extension? Nothing is going to happen in that time. The EU may well grant it, but they have no reason to move anymore.

    My view? Its a continuation of the last three years of the politicians playing silly buggers in order to delay and finally eliminate a chance of any Brexit.

    I do have a genuine question. We've heard a lot from some Remainers who blame the Brexit enthusiasts for not tying to appease the 48% of the voters who voted for the EU. Had the result gone 52 - 48 in favour of staying, what would the government and the majority Remainers in the HoC done to appease the 48% of dissident Leavers?

    Would they have announced a mini-leave? Perhaps withdrawn from some obligations? We know the answer to that. Why then are they not called out for their clear and obvious hypocrisy. Perhaps because their arrogance blinds them?

    I suspect the poshos will have their way. We'll stay and Nationhood will disappear as we're subsumed into a single country. But we'll still be ruled by politicians who think they know better and the voters are barely the means to an end.



  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,118

    Foxy said:

    Frightening thought: Boris's resignation honours list will include a peerage for Dominic Cummings.

    Well, let's see the propagation emails etc first. It could be the Tower rather than the Lords.
    Whatsapp messages are permanently deletable.
    The government lawyers will already have seen them for the court cases last week.
    Reposted from the previous thread -

    As someone who has spent more time than is reasonable in a well-ordered life getting hold of and reading electronic messages of all kinds, some free advice:-

    - once you have created something electronically never ever think that you can delete it. You can’t. One way or another you will be caught out.
    - If you use a personal device for work messages (a bloody stupid thing to do if you are in government) you cannot claim that this is private stuff and exempt from disclosure, whether under the GPDR or the ECHR or whatever principle or law you’ve just plucked out of your arse in the hope that you won’t be caught or embarrassed.
    - Grieve is not persecuting some minor SPADS. He has listed 9 names because they are people involved in the discussions around prorogation and can reasonably be expected to have relevant evidence.
    - It is unusual for a party to a case not to provide evidence on oath to support what it is saying. If, as appears to be the case, no-one was prepared to sign a witness statement on behalf of the government that suggests that there may be questions as to why and whether that was because the full accurate story was not being told.
    - That matters because trust in what Ministers say - whether to Parliament or a court - matters. I know this may seem like old-fashioned nonsense these days. But it is still true. And it is absolutely right that this government should be held to account for it.

    This will make me even more unpopular this evening but Grieve, as a former A-G, knows what he is talking about it here and is absolutely right to demand full and frank disclosure about what the government was doing, when and what it was saying to Parliament, the court and the public.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,780

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    For those who were suggesting that Mr Johnson could by ammendment organise a vote for GE that only required a normal majority: he was only able to get 293 votes for a GE and that is including the DUP. So even if this was a realistic process he still would not have gained enough votes.

    We simply don't have a government. I find it bewildering that people constantly repeat that Boris is the first PM to lose his first 5 votes as if it was indicative of some incompetence or carelessness on his part. He is in reality about 30 short of a majority and has been since he got the keys to Number 10.

    I don't it is ever desirable to have no functioning government but it is particularly unfortunate at the moment when some things of moderate importance are going on.
    This is misleading, even with a deal or no deal policy he could easily have not lost any votes yet.

    There was no need for the half hearted prorogation, it doesnt help deliver Brexit, all it did was make the support of 21 MPs untenable.

    There was no need to arrange a meeting with Hammond to update him and then cancel at the last minute. It doesnt help deliver Brexit, it just shows the contempt the PM has for disagreement.

    There was no need for the Leader of the House to visibly disrespect the House of Commons, it doesnt help the government, it just shows the contempt he has for parliament.

    It is his attitude and constant deceit and game playing that has cost him his majority so early on. It would not have survived the no deal part of his policy regardless but he could have had at least a further month to get a deal were he capable and willing to do so.
    None of these steps was particularly clever but the reality is that he never had a majority for the platform he was elected on. The 20 odd Tories who have had the whip withdrawn were never in practice going to vote for it.

    May had exactly the same problem albeit with a different group of MPs and went down to the same defeats without the game playing. The Conservative party right now is so disunited that it cannot provide effective government. It needs to purge itself to get a coherence of purpose back. May should have done this with the ERG, Boris is doing this with the Euro fanatics. Either way is more desirable than carrying on without a government.
  • rcs1000 said:

    The division list from the FTPA motion are fascinating. Mass abstension by the Tory rebels. We know most of them want the whip back yet... I think the abstentions are telling about how they see the power dynamic between themselves and Boris. On that topic do catch the full but short speech from Sir Alan Duncan in last night's debate. It wasxlargely heard in erie silence.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/sep/10/did-your-mp-vote-for-an-early-general-election

    So, if I read the division list correctly, the party most likely to make gains (the LDs) was the one most opposed to an election.

    It's a strange world in which we live in.
    It is strange but how would the LDs do if they voted for an oct 15 election and the PM changed it to nov 1. Boris successful, LDs dimly outwitted not a good platform for their campaign.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    For those who were suggesting that Mr Johnson could by ammendment organise a vote for GE that only required a normal majority: he was only able to get 293 votes for a GE and that is including the DUP. So even if this was a realistic process he still would not have gained enough votes.

    We simply don't have a government. I find it bewildering that people constantly repeat that Boris is the first PM to lose his first 5 votes as if it was indicative of some incompetence or carelessness on his part. He is in reality about 30 short of a majority and has been since he got the keys to Number 10.

    I don't it is ever desirable to have no functioning government but it is particularly unfortunate at the moment when some things of moderate importance are going on.
    This is misleading, even with a deal or no deal policy he could easily have not lost any votes yet.

    There was no need for the half hearted prorogation, it doesnt help deliver Brexit, all it did was make the support of 21 MPs untenable.

    There was no need to arrange a meeting with Hammond to update him and then cancel at the last minute. It doesnt help deliver Brexit, it just shows the contempt the PM has for disagreement.

    There was no need for the Leader of the House to visibly disrespect the House of Commons, it doesnt help the government, it just shows the contempt he has for parliament.

    It is his attitude and constant deceit and game playing that has cost him his majority so early on. It would not have survived the no deal part of his policy regardless but he could have had at least a further month to get a deal were he capable and willing to do so.
    None of these steps was particularly clever but the reality is that he never had a majority for the platform he was elected on. The 20 odd Tories who have had the whip withdrawn were never in practice going to vote for it.

    May had exactly the same problem albeit with a different group of MPs and went down to the same defeats without the game playing. The Conservative party right now is so disunited that it cannot provide effective government. It needs to purge itself to get a coherence of purpose back. May should have done this with the ERG, Boris is doing this with the Euro fanatics. Either way is more desirable than carrying on without a government.
    Hammond a euro fanatic!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129

    Frightening thought: Boris's resignation honours list will include a peerage for Dominic Cummings.

    I thought lunatics couldn't be members of the Lords?
  • Foxy said:

    I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair

    Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others

    I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost

    Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen

    And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West

    I would put most MPs in the category of 'ordinary decent people' rather than venal. Corbyn, Bercow and Grieve have all simply done their job - holding the government to account, allowing the Commons to have its say as the instrument of the British people, and working cross-party to prevent the government forcing a no deal Brexit on us, respectively. A venal parliament would be one where MPs simply turn up and collect their salary and allow the government to trash our country unopposed.
    All the mps trashed our Country last night in a display of abject irresponsibility
    No they didnt.

    They insisted that the government publish its risk assessment for No Deal, so that people can prepare.

    They insisted that the government produce evidence that it has not lied to Queen and Courts.

    It has insisted that the PM is not above the law.

    It has objected unsuccessfully against being suspended during a national political crisis.

    It was a good day in Parliament. MPs done good.
    You are totally out of touch with the public.

    They are furious over last nights performance
  • PB Tories staggering, fainting and clutching pearls all over the shop this morning I see. Usually a good sign.
    (Catching up on last night's thread I see that the 'Corbyn is finished' squeal was back amongst drunken PB Tories - in incarnation no. 456346789999. Again, usually a good sign.)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,780

    DavidL said:

    On topic an excellent header. I was first attracted to this site because I believed that the smart money might give a better indication of how things were really going than our banal and all too often ignorant MSM. It appears that hope was not particularly well placed.

    I think there are individuals on here who make money from the fact that the betting markets as a whole are wrong so often. So there's still some value from people looking at where the consensus might be wrong.

    Hearing about last night on the radio this morning makes me feel shaken. Our democracy is falling to pieces. We're inflicting terrible harm upon ourselves by our unwillingness to compromise.
    I'm with you.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,118
    Oh God, Nick Robinson saying that Grieve’s motion is asking for the “private” messages of government officials.

    No - it bloody isn’t. It’s asking for messages which relate to the reasons why prorogation was being sought. These are work messages not private messages. How hard is it for journalists to understand this?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129

    PB Tories staggering, fainting and clutching pearls all over the shop this morning I see. Usually a good sign.
    (Catching up on last night's thread I see that the 'Corbyn is finished' squeal was back amongst drunken PB Tories - in incarnation no. 456346789999. Again, usually a good sign.)

    Actually, it seems to have been mostly Labour voters who thought that.

    Which is not perhaps such a good sign.
  • I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair

    Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others

    I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost

    Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen

    And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West

    I would put most MPs in the category of 'ordinary decent people' rather than venal. Corbyn, Bercow and Grieve have all simply done their job - holding the government to account, allowing the Commons to have its say as the instrument of the British people, and working cross-party to prevent the government forcing a no deal Brexit on us, respectively. A venal parliament would be one where MPs simply turn up and collect their salary and allow the government to trash our country unopposed.
    All the mps trashed our Country last night in a display of abject irresponsibility
    How? By closing the door to a disastrous no deal Brexit? I would say that was highly responsible behaviour.
    If you cannot see how appalling yesterday's behaviour was and the media coverage this morning confirms it you are playing the worst kind of politics

    This is not about who is right or wrong, this is about the image of the Mother of Parliaments trashing its reputation in front of the country and world wide
    I'm sorry but I respectfully disagree. And I wouldn't look to the media as some kind of independent arbiter of the matter. Most of the British press is owned by a handful of tax avoiding billionaires with no love for either democracy or this country and its people.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Frightening thought: Boris's resignation honours list will include a peerage for Dominic Cummings.

    Well, let's see the propagation emails etc first. It could be the Tower rather than the Lords.
    Whatsapp messages are permanently deletable.
    The government lawyers will already have seen them for the court cases last week.
    Reposted from the previous thread -

    As someone who has spent more time than is reasonable in a well-ordered life getting hold of and reading electronic messages of all kinds, some free advice:-

    - once you have created something electronically never ever think that you can delete it. You can’t. One way or another you will be caught out.
    - If you use a personal device for work messages (a bloody stupid thing to do if you are in government) you cannot claim that this is private stuff and exempt from disclosure, whether under the GPDR or the ECHR or whatever principle or law you’ve just plucked out of your arse in the hope that you won’t be caught or embarrassed.
    - Grieve is not persecuting some minor SPADS. He has listed 9 names because they are people involved in the discussions around prorogation and can reasonably be expected to have relevant evidence.
    - It is unusual for a party to a case not to provide evidence on oath to support what it is saying. If, as appears to be the case, no-one was prepared to sign a witness statement on behalf of the government that suggests that there may be questions as to why and whether that was because the full accurate story was not being told.
    - That matters because trust in what Ministers say - whether to Parliament or a court - matters. I know this may seem like old-fashioned nonsense these days. But it is still true. And it is absolutely right that this government should be held to account for it.

    This will make me even more unpopular this evening but Grieve, as a former A-G, knows what he is talking about it here and is absolutely right to demand full and frank disclosure about what the government was doing, when and what it was saying to Parliament, the court and the public.
    Thanks, in practice do you think anything is likely to come of it? If the govt ignore it, what can parliament do whilst prorogued if anything?
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic an excellent header. I was first attracted to this site because I believed that the smart money might give a better indication of how things were really going than our banal and all too often ignorant MSM. It appears that hope was not particularly well placed.

    I think there are individuals on here who make money from the fact that the betting markets as a whole are wrong so often. So there's still some value from people looking at where the consensus might be wrong.

    Hearing about last night on the radio this morning makes me feel shaken. Our democracy is falling to pieces. We're inflicting terrible harm upon ourselves by our unwillingness to compromise.
    I'm with you.
    And me
  • I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair

    Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others

    I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost

    Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen

    And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West

    I would put most MPs in the category of 'ordinary decent people' rather than venal. Corbyn, Bercow and Grieve have all simply done their job - holding the government to account, allowing the Commons to have its say as the instrument of the British people, and working cross-party to prevent the government forcing a no deal Brexit on us, respectively. A venal parliament would be one where MPs simply turn up and collect their salary and allow the government to trash our country unopposed.
    All the mps trashed our Country last night in a display of abject irresponsibility
    That's one way of looking it. Another is that high partisanship, high emotion and manoeuvres rather than resolution are a logical consequence of plebiscitary democracy attempting to replace parliament, followed by executive contempt of parliament.
    Nope. Our current sewer of MPs are utter scum who have shown nothing but comtempt for both the electorate and the country as a whole. We would be well shot of the lot of them and it is a delight to see so many standing down.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,673
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair

    Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others

    I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost

    Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen

    And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West

    As Cromwell said in 1653:

    Ye sordid prostitutes, have you not defil’d this sacred place and turned the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral purposes and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; you were deputed here by the people to get grievances redress’d, are yourselves become the greatest grievance.
    He was spot on. And their reluctance to face their employers is telling.
    MPs have sat for just two years in this Parliament. What’s the hurry for a fresh election? It’s not as though there’s any particular reason to expect a radically different result.
    The hurry is the lack of a government. If we had a majority or a stable coalition with a majority there would be no hurry at all. Instead we have absolute chaos, a government who cannot pass any bills, an opposition who seek to make governing ever more impossible and to tie the hands of a government seeking to negotiate on the country's behalf. I accept that there is no guarantee that the next Parliament will be any better but this self indulgent buffoonery has to stop.
    What needs to change is MPs’ attitudes to forming a coalition. A general election is not going to do that. Boris Johnson is the author of his own misfortune. Instead of gathering MPs to his cause, he is throwing them away.

    The next successful Prime Minister will be a coalition-builder.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,626
    Cyclefree said:

    Oh God, Nick Robinson saying that Grieve’s motion is asking for the “private” messages of government officials.

    No - it bloody isn’t. It’s asking for messages which relate to the reasons why prorogation was being sought. These are work messages not private messages. How hard is it for journalists to understand this?

    A search of Grieve’s hard drive wouldn’t go amiss to be honest.

    Perhaps he will oblige ?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 1,123
    DavidL said:


    We simply don't have a government.....

    This is completely wrong. We have a Government, we have a PM, we have a Chancellor of the Exchequer, we have a Health Secretary etc. The Business in the government carries on as usual, nurses are still getting paid.

    What we do have is a Prime Minister who cannot command a majority in the House of Commons. The effect is that no *new laws* can be passed, unless a chunk of the opposition agree.


  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,673
    Cyclefree said:

    Oh God, Nick Robinson saying that Grieve’s motion is asking for the “private” messages of government officials.

    No - it bloody isn’t. It’s asking for messages which relate to the reasons why prorogation was being sought. These are work messages not private messages. How hard is it for journalists to understand this?

    Lock him up!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,312
    DavidL said:

    None of these steps was particularly clever but the reality is that he never had a majority for the platform he was elected on. The 20 odd Tories who have had the whip withdrawn were never in practice going to vote for it.

    May had exactly the same problem albeit with a different group of MPs and went down to the same defeats without the game playing. The Conservative party right now is so disunited that it cannot provide effective government. It needs to purge itself to get a coherence of purpose back. May should have done this with the ERG, Boris is doing this with the Euro fanatics. Either way is more desirable than carrying on without a government.

    If the (in your words) 'Euro fanatics' are purged, is the resultant Conservative Party - one with the ERG at the helm, one you would vote for, or be a member of?

    BTW: I don't think calling someone like Rory Stewart a 'Euro fanatic' is correct. He was about the only Conservative to strongly bat in public for May's deal - which was hardly 'remain'.

    The real 'Euro fanatics' are those who have put leaving the EU above all other matters for decades, and are willing to see the country descend into chaos - and are now salivating at the thought of civil disobedience as a result.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,780
    Cyclefree said:

    Oh God, Nick Robinson saying that Grieve’s motion is asking for the “private” messages of government officials.

    No - it bloody isn’t. It’s asking for messages which relate to the reasons why prorogation was being sought. These are work messages not private messages. How hard is it for journalists to understand this?

    Its like a private phone being used to pass on insider trading. We decided quite some time ago that was not desirable and needed to be stopped. But as I said down thread correspondence was produced to the Court of Session last week and is already in the public domain.
  • I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair

    Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others

    I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost

    Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen

    And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West

    I would put most MPs in the category of 'ordinary decent people' rather than venal. Corbyn, Bercow and Grieve have all simply done their job - holding the government to account, allowing the Commons to have its say as the instrument of the British people, and working cross-party to prevent the government forcing a no deal Brexit on us, respectively. A venal parliament would be one where MPs simply turn up and collect their salary and allow the government to trash our country unopposed.
    All the mps trashed our Country last night in a display of abject irresponsibility
    How? By closing the door to a disastrous no deal Brexit? I would say that was highly responsible behaviour.
    If you cannot see how appalling yesterday's behaviour was and the media coverage this morning confirms it you are playing the worst kind of politics

    This is not about who is right or wrong, this is about the image of the Mother of Parliaments trashing its reputation in front of the country and world wide
    I'm sorry but I respectfully disagree. And I wouldn't look to the media as some kind of independent arbiter of the matter. Most of the British press is owned by a handful of tax avoiding billionaires with no love for either democracy or this country and its people.
    You are shooting the messenger. If you think the public are not shaken and angered by last night you are in denial
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,168
    edited September 10
    CD13 said:

    The only comments I've heard around here about Brexit are in line with the following …

    (1) Why are we asking for another extension? Nothing is going to happen in that time. The EU may well grant it, but they have no reason to move anymore.

    My view? Its a continuation of the last three years of the politicians playing silly buggers in order to delay and finally eliminate a chance of any Brexit.

    I do have a genuine question. We've heard a lot from some Remainers who blame the Brexit enthusiasts for not tying to appease the 48% of the voters who voted for the EU. Had the result gone 52 - 48 in favour of staying, what would the government and the majority Remainers in the HoC done to appease the 48% of dissident Leavers?

    Would they have announced a mini-leave? Perhaps withdrawn from some obligations? We know the answer to that. Why then are they not called out for their clear and obvious hypocrisy. Perhaps because their arrogance blinds them?

    I suspect the poshos will have their way. We'll stay and Nationhood will disappear as we're subsumed into a single country. But we'll still be ruled by politicians who think they know better and the voters are barely the means to an end.



    If we’d voted Remain we’d have had Cameron’s deal, which away from the predictable bluster had some sensible concessions for Leavers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129
    Of course, one thing that avoiding an election while there is no government majority does mean is that there is now no realistic way of blocking HS2, regardless of what the Oakervee review says.

    So it's not all bad news...
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 1,188
    edited September 10

    I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair

    Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others

    I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost

    Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen

    And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West

    I would put most MPs in the category of 'ordinary decent people' rather than venal. Corbyn, Bercow and Grieve have all simply done their job - holding the government to account, allowing the Commons to have its say as the instrument of the British people, and working cross-party to prevent the government forcing a no deal Brexit on us, respectively. A venal parliament would be one where MPs simply turn up and collect their salary and allow the government to trash our country unopposed.
    All the mps trashed our Country last night in a display of abject irresponsibility
    How? By closing the door to a disastrous no deal Brexit? I would say that was highly responsible behaviour.
    If you cannot see how appalling yesterday's behaviour was and the media coverage this morning confirms it you are playing the worst kind of politics

    This is not about who is right or wrong, this is about the image of the Mother of Parliaments trashing its reputation in front of the country and world wide
    I'm sorry but I respectfully disagree. And I wouldn't look to the media as some kind of independent arbiter of the matter. Most of the British press is owned by a handful of tax avoiding billionaires with no love for either democracy or this country and its people.
    You are shooting the messenger. If you think the public are not shaken and angered by last night you are in denial
    They are, but much of the anger is partisan - either at government, or at parliament. It's the small group in the middle that are key.
  • Mr. Above, does the PM retain his 100% losing record of Commons votes?

    Until an election? Who knows, guess the next one is the queens speech which could be his last day. If pushed, yes he will not win any votes in this parliamentary term (may well in the next sadly!).
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,626
    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Oh God, Nick Robinson saying that Grieve’s motion is asking for the “private” messages of government officials.

    No - it bloody isn’t. It’s asking for messages which relate to the reasons why prorogation was being sought. These are work messages not private messages. How hard is it for journalists to understand this?

    Its like a private phone being used to pass on insider trading. We decided quite some time ago that was not desirable and needed to be stopped. But as I said down thread correspondence was produced to the Court of Session last week and is already in the public domain.
    All pubs within 2 miles of Downing Street should have hidden microphones incase govt members talk to each other about stuff Grieve doesn’t like.

    Thought crimes next.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,566
    rcs1000 said:

    I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair

    Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others

    I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost

    Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen

    And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West

    As Cromwell said in 1653:

    Ye sordid prostitutes, have you not defil’d this sacred place and turned the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral purposes and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; you were deputed here by the people to get grievances redress’d, are yourselves become the greatest grievance.
    Bit of pot and kettle there, given Cromwell’s own intolerable odiousness.
    And let’s not start on his approach to Parliamentary procedure...
  • TGOHF said:
    Absolutely spot on and why I despair at the lot of them
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,168

    Foxy said:

    I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair

    Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others

    I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost

    Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen

    And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West

    I would put most MPs in the category of 'ordinary decent people' rather than venal. Corbyn, Bercow and Grieve have all simply done their job - holding the government to account, allowing the Commons to have its say as the instrument of the British people, and working cross-party to prevent the government forcing a no deal Brexit on us, respectively. A venal parliament would be one where MPs simply turn up and collect their salary and allow the government to trash our country unopposed.
    All the mps trashed our Country last night in a display of abject irresponsibility
    No they didnt.

    They insisted that the government publish its risk assessment for No Deal, so that people can prepare.

    They insisted that the government produce evidence that it has not lied to Queen and Courts.

    It has insisted that the PM is not above the law.

    It has objected unsuccessfully against being suspended during a national political crisis.

    It was a good day in Parliament. MPs done good.
    You are totally out of touch with the public.

    They are furious over last nights performance
    Impressive how you have conducted a poll of the entire country by 741 in the morning.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,118

    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Frightening thought: Boris's resignation honours list will include a peerage for Dominic Cummings.

    Well, let's see the propagation emails etc first. It could be the Tower rather than the Lords.
    Whatsapp messages are permanently deletable.
    The government lawyers will already have seen them for the court cases last week.
    Reposted from the previous thread -

    As someone who has spent more time than is reasonable in a well-ordered life getting hold of and reading electronic messages of all kinds, some free advice:-

    - once you have created something electronically never ever think that you can delete it. You can’t. One way or another you will be caught out.
    - If you use a personal device for work messages (a bloody stupid thing to do if you are in government) you cannot claim that this is private stuff and exempt from disclosure, whether under the GPDR or the ECHR or whatever principle or law you’ve just plucked out of your arse in the hope that you won’t be caught or embarrassed.
    - Grieve is not persecuting some minor SPADS. He has listed 9 names because they are people involved in the discussions around prorogation and can reasonably be expected to have relevant evidence.
    - It is unusual for a party to a case not to provide evidence on oath to support what it is saying. If, as appears to be the case, no-one was prepared to sign a witness statement on behalf of the government that suggests that there may be questions as to why and whether that was because the full accurate story was not being told.
    - That matters because trust in what Ministers say - whether to Parliament or a court - matters. I know this may seem like old-fashioned nonsense these days. But it is still true. And it is absolutely right that this government should be held to account for it.

    This will make me even more unpopular this evening but Grieve, as a former A-G, knows what he is talking about it here and is absolutely right to demand full and frank disclosure about what the government was doing, when and what it was saying to Parliament, the court and the public.
    Thanks, in practice do you think anything is likely to come of it? If the govt ignore it, what can parliament do whilst prorogued if anything?
    Need to go to work. I’ll respond later.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129
    TGOHF said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Oh God, Nick Robinson saying that Grieve’s motion is asking for the “private” messages of government officials.

    No - it bloody isn’t. It’s asking for messages which relate to the reasons why prorogation was being sought. These are work messages not private messages. How hard is it for journalists to understand this?

    Its like a private phone being used to pass on insider trading. We decided quite some time ago that was not desirable and needed to be stopped. But as I said down thread correspondence was produced to the Court of Session last week and is already in the public domain.
    All pubs within 2 miles of Downing Street should have hidden microphones incase govt members talk to each other about stuff Grieve doesn’t like.

    Thought crimes next.
    There is no risk of any member of this government being guilty of a thought crime.

    That would require them to be able to think.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,780
    ydoethur said:

    Of course, one thing that avoiding an election while there is no government majority does mean is that there is now no realistic way of blocking HS2, regardless of what the Oakervee review says.

    So it's not all bad news...

    And where is the budget going to come from to pay for it?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,566
    Cyclefree said:

    Oh God, Nick Robinson saying that Grieve’s motion is asking for the “private” messages of government officials.

    No - it bloody isn’t. It’s asking for messages which relate to the reasons why prorogation was being sought. These are work messages not private messages. How hard is it for journalists to understand this?

    There seems to be a growing belief among our ruling class that conducting public business over private systems exempts them from scrutiny.

    Or perhaps it’s just entitlement.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair

    Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others

    I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost

    Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen

    And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West

    As Cromwell said in 1653:

    Ye sordid prostitutes, have you not defil’d this sacred place and turned the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral purposes and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; you were deputed here by the people to get grievances redress’d, are yourselves become the greatest grievance.
    He was spot on. And their reluctance to face their employers is telling.
    MPs have sat for just two years in this Parliament. What’s the hurry for a fresh election? It’s not as though there’s any particular reason to expect a radically different result.
    The hurry is the lack of a government. If we had a majority or a stable coalition with a majority there would be no hurry at all. Instead we have absolute chaos, a government who cannot pass any bills, an opposition who seek to make governing ever more impossible and to tie the hands of a government seeking to negotiate on the country's behalf. I accept that there is no guarantee that the next Parliament will be any better but this self indulgent buffoonery has to stop.
    What needs to change is MPs’ attitudes to forming a coalition. A general election is not going to do that. Boris Johnson is the author of his own misfortune. Instead of gathering MPs to his cause, he is throwing them away.

    The next successful Prime Minister will be a coalition-builder.
    I agree
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair

    Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others

    I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost

    Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen

    And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West

    As Cromwell said in 1653:

    Ye sordid prostitutes, have you not defil’d this sacred place and turned the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral purposes and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; you were deputed here by the people to get grievances redress’d, are yourselves become the greatest grievance.
    He was spot on. And their reluctance to face their employers is telling.
    MPs have sat for just two years in this Parliament. What’s the hurry for a fresh election? It’s not as though there’s any particular reason to expect a radically different result.
    I’m not particularly religious, and nor do I believe in fate, but I do sometimes wonder if there were to ever be such a thing it’d be for this current Parliament to sit, sit and sit until they sort Brexit out.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,564
    Mr on_fire,

    "If we’d voted Remain we’d have had Cameron’s deal, which away from the predictable bluster had some sensible concessions for Leavers."

    And these were?
This discussion has been closed.