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  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    justin124 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Correction: Labour are forecast to be on 237, not 245.

    Con 317
    Lab 237
    SNP 52
    LD 22
    PC 3
    Green 1
    BRX 0

    https://www.channel4.com/news/general-election-may-not-end-brexit-impasse-poll-analysis-suggests

    That strikes me as not an unlikely outcome were the election held today. However, governments tend to lose ground during election campaigns.
    Apart from 1987. 1992, 2010.2015 and arguably 1997 I suppose.
  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:
    It's not as if there are any other things needing money to be spent on them.


    Scotland and Ulster are two of the poorest parts of the Uk - would boost both.
    How many people live anywhere near what would be the Scottish end of it?
    with a motorway it would be about 75 mins to Glasgow...
    Yeah, but what would the marching time be?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,743



    How many people live anywhere near what would be the Scottish end of it?

    Somebody told me it's only 12 miles from Portpatrick to the North Antrim coast at Ballystrudder but that can't be right.

    If you build a road/rail spur off the A75 and the rail line at Stranraer down to Portpatrick, the Ulster end could link to the A2 road and a high speed line into Belfast. I imagine the water is pretty deep in the North Channel however compared to the English Channel for example - there's also the occasional winter storm or several.

    I don't know how a bridge could be built in such deep water and such extreme conditions.

  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:
    It's not as if there are any other things needing money to be spent on them.


    Scotland and Ulster are two of the poorest parts of the Uk - would boost both.
    How many people live anywhere near what would be the Scottish end of it?
    with a motorway it would be about 75 mins to Glasgow...
    Glasgow to Campbeltown is three hours.
  • TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:
    It's not as if there are any other things needing money to be spent on them.


    Scotland and Ulster are two of the poorest parts of the Uk - would boost both.
    How many people live anywhere near what would be the Scottish end of it?
    I've been to Stranraer station :)
    So have I. Twice!
  • When people told Trump it was better to build bridges instead of walls I don't think they had this sort of thing in mind.
  • TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:
    It's not as if there are any other things needing money to be spent on them.


    Scotland and Ulster are two of the poorest parts of the Uk - would boost both.
    How many people live anywhere near what would be the Scottish end of it?
    I've been to Stranraer station :)
    So have I. Twice!
    I've been to Wemyss Bay twice.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    How many people live anywhere near what would be the Scottish end of it?

    Not many - there's Portpatrick there, but only linked via little country roads. They'd need to build/upgrade proper roads all the way to Dumfries say, and the terrain isn't too accommodating.
  • TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:
    It's not as if there are any other things needing money to be spent on them.


    Scotland and Ulster are two of the poorest parts of the Uk - would boost both.
    What a brilliant argument. I'm ashamed even to have raised the question of cost.
    Imagine we had said the same about Brunels bridges- or the Chunnel.

    Have some ambition.
    It has absolutely zero business case, would be extremely difficult and expensive to build and would be a huge white elephant to maintain. It's bonkers.

    However, there's no doubt it'd be politically powerful.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Who would want to risk being on an exposed bridge in the autumn, winter or spring with gale force winds? The precipitation might be difficult as well to drive through. I went to NI in August and was glad i flew rather than rail and ferry as the sea could have been rough even in the summer. Sounds like a complete non starter to me. A tunnel might be feasable if cost was not an issue but exposed bridge: No chance.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    stodge said:



    How many people live anywhere near what would be the Scottish end of it?

    Somebody told me it's only 12 miles from Portpatrick to the North Antrim coast at Ballystrudder but that can't be right.

    If you build a road/rail spur off the A75 and the rail line at Stranraer down to Portpatrick, the Ulster end could link to the A2 road and a high speed line into Belfast. I imagine the water is pretty deep in the North Channel however compared to the English Channel for example - there's also the occasional winter storm or several.

    I don't know how a bridge could be built in such deep water and such extreme conditions.

    The channel tunnel was mainly through chalk though, which made it much much easier than the north channel route would be.
  • TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:
    It's not as if there are any other things needing money to be spent on them.


    Scotland and Ulster are two of the poorest parts of the Uk - would boost both.
    How many people live anywhere near what would be the Scottish end of it?
    Wrong question. Ask how many currently use the Stranraer ferry, or fly from Glasgow/Edinburgh to Belfast. Then do a forecast of development in South west Scotland and NI over the next 50 years with low/med/high growth scenarios with and without the bridge.

    I expect there'd be precious little difference and you'd have very little traffic.
  • TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:
    It's not as if there are any other things needing money to be spent on them.


    Scotland and Ulster are two of the poorest parts of the Uk - would boost both.
    How many people live anywhere near what would be the Scottish end of it?
    I've been to Stranraer station :)
    So have I. Twice!
    I've been to Wemyss Bay twice.
    I've been to Kyle of Lochalsh twice.
  • justin124 said:

    Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan"

    Possible up to 5.

    6 looks unlikely: the temporary coalition would hold up to 1 November at least to shepherd the extension over the line. It might well hold a bit longer. You’re more likely to see Jeremy Corbyn proactively agree to an early election then than see a successful vote of no confidence against his wishes.

    On 7, you have to allow at least 25 working days after the 14 days. So we’d be looking at a Christmas election.

    Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal".

    Possible up to 5.

    6 looks unlikely: the temporary coalition would hold up to 1 November at least to shepherd the extension over the line. It might well hold a bit longer. You’re more likely to see Jeremy Corbyn proactively agree to an early election then than see a successful vote of no confidence against his wishes.

    On 7, you have to allow at least 25 working days after the 14 days. So we’d be looking at a Christmas election.
    If an election isn’t called by 6th November (for Thurs 12th December) there won’t be one until Thurs 14th February at the earliest.
    Maybe - though we did have January elections in 1910 and 1906.
    Noone is going to be running a GE campaign over Christmas and the NY.

    The electorate would go ballistic with every politician from every party who tried it, and then vote monster raving loony on the day.
  • Must be a joke account. Nobody could possibly be that dumb.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    Must be a joke account. Nobody could possibly be that dumb.
    Eh?
  • AndyJS said:

    Correction: Labour are forecast to be on 237, not 245.

    Con 317
    Lab 237
    SNP 52
    LD 22
    PC 3
    Green 1
    BRX 0

    https://www.channel4.com/news/general-election-may-not-end-brexit-impasse-poll-analysis-suggests

    A GE isn't going to solve anything and the next Parliament would be even more gridlocked than this one.

    This one has to fix it and own it, or return to a fair option based referendum.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Sounds like Tom Watson has been triggered for deselection process
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    Sounds like Tom Watson has been triggered for deselection process

    What a great time for Labour to have a civl war.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,749

    TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:
    It's not as if there are any other things needing money to be spent on them.


    Scotland and Ulster are two of the poorest parts of the Uk - would boost both.
    How many people live anywhere near what would be the Scottish end of it?
    The current SoS for Scotland does - or at least owns a farm near there.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Sounds like Tom Watson has been triggered for deselection process

    What a great time for Labour to have a civl war.
    No, I'm wring the tweeter has clarified they voted in favour of him! Watson saved
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:

    W

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:
    It's not as if there are any other things needing money to be spent on them.


    Scotland and Ulster are two of the poorest parts of the Uk - would boost both.
    What a brilliant argument. I'm ashamed even to have raised the question of cost.
    Imagine we had said the same about Brunels bridges- or the Chunnel.

    Have some ambition.
    Look, I said I'm ashamed to have mentioned money. Don't make me feel even worse.
    No worries - we can get the EU to pay for it then leave the day it’s finished.
    I think in fairness they should also pay to erect a suitable statue of Boris Johnson - at both ends,
    I thought phallic imagery in public places was forbidden in this country?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Anecdote alert. I spoke to someone from a magazine company selling me advertising today, in person. I'm based in Scotland.

    ME: 'We're having a brilliant year so far, great to be reporting we're ahead of target each month. Who knows what will happen in the next few months though (with a bit of a mild "eek" expression and eyebrow raise).'

    This is cue for people to get what they think of Brexit off their chest.

    HER: "I honestly think it might have been better for Boris to get his way."

    This is not a full transcript. And is a sample of one. But it surprised me.

    It is remarkable how every anecdote PBers report always seems to align with their own view.
    On the contrary, I was with a taxi driver the other day and he was slagging off the EU and particularly remainers. He was incredibly knowledgeable on the subject and I found myself overwhelmed by his arguments.

    Sorry just felt like ringing the changes a bit
    I 'ad that Michel Barnier in me cab once.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    midwinter said:

    justin124 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Correction: Labour are forecast to be on 237, not 245.

    Con 317
    Lab 237
    SNP 52
    LD 22
    PC 3
    Green 1
    BRX 0

    https://www.channel4.com/news/general-election-may-not-end-brexit-impasse-poll-analysis-suggests

    That strikes me as not an unlikely outcome were the election held today. However, governments tend to lose ground during election campaigns.
    Apart from 1987. 1992, 2010.2015 and arguably 1997 I suppose.
    And the I think the Tories were only down about .2% in 1983 from memory.


  • In the note circulated it to friendly media, the details of the speech were not to be published until after 10.30pm tonight meaning it would have appeared only after the ‘trigger’ meeting Watson faces tonight had closed, giving members no opportunity to vote based on his action.

    In this desperate-looking move, Watson has isolated himself even further – MPs told Boris Johnson that they will back a general election when their Act to prevent no-deal is fully in force, not when there has been another referendum about it.

    And the statutory requirements for preparing, tabling and passing legislation for a new referendum – and then a general election after it – would mean that a general election could not take place until mid-2020, late April at the absolute earliest even in the unthinkable scenario of no delays in Parliament.

    Getting a referendum bill through Parliament would require MPs taking over the House of Commons for three to four weeks – a process that cannot even begin until the proroguing of Parliament is over.

    If it passes, then the referendum campaign would be a minimum of 147 days – but that countdown can’t even start until the Electoral Commission decides on the wording of the referendum question and Parliament debates it and potentially tries to amend it before its final approval.

    Add to all that the minimum period of 42 days for a general election campaign and all the arguments and manoeuvres that would go on around both votes and the earliest that a general election could realistically take place is summer next year.

    Might still happen if A50 is punted to the end of next year.

    This Parliament couldn't find its way to the toilet.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:

    W

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:
    It's not as if there are any other things needing money to be spent on them.


    Scotland and Ulster are two of the poorest parts of the Uk - would boost both.
    What a brilliant argument. I'm ashamed even to have raised the question of cost.
    Imagine we had said the same about Brunels bridges- or the Chunnel.

    Have some ambition.
    Look, I said I'm ashamed to have mentioned money. Don't make me feel even worse.
    No worries - we can get the EU to pay for it then leave the day it’s finished.
    I think in fairness they should also pay to erect a suitable statue of Boris Johnson - at both ends,
    I thought phallic imagery in public places was forbidden in this country?
    I thought there was a chalk man on a hillside somewhere in the UK? I am sure he is standing to attention as well! :wink:
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,678
    rpjs said:

    Apologies for my no doubt typically dense question but...

    With the NI only backstop, does that mean that if the backstop is ever invoked we'd have border controls between NI and GB?

    I have no issues with that and would welcome it but it's surely not going to buy off Farage & co is it?

    I'd be furious. An NI only backstop means there is a border within a country.
    I make jokes about people from the Wirral needing a passport to visit Liverpool. They are jokes. A NI only backstop wouldn't be a joke. You would need a passport to go to another location in your own country.

    Does ANY other country in the world have an internal goods/people/services border? Genuine question.
    Yes, there are many such. Perhaps the closest examples to the UK are the Canary Islands and the Azores / Madeira being separate customs territories from Spain and Portugal respectively, although in all other respects they are fully-integrated parts of those countries.

    There would be no need of a passport to travel between Great Britain and Northern Ireland in an NI-only backstop. The CTA would still apply. You don't need a passport to travel from the UK to the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands but you do have to clear customs.
    Thanks for that (and thanks from others). Itwould move me from furious to merely 'annoyed'. I could live with the NI only backstop therefore. It may be another way forward.
  • stodge said:



    How many people live anywhere near what would be the Scottish end of it?

    Somebody told me it's only 12 miles from Portpatrick to the North Antrim coast at Ballystrudder but that can't be right.

    If you build a road/rail spur off the A75 and the rail line at Stranraer down to Portpatrick, the Ulster end could link to the A2 road and a high speed line into Belfast. I imagine the water is pretty deep in the North Channel however compared to the English Channel for example - there's also the occasional winter storm or several.

    I don't know how a bridge could be built in such deep water and such extreme conditions.

    The channel tunnel was mainly through chalk though, which made it much much easier than the north channel route would be.
    There is also the most active fault system in the British Isles running through there.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    "So, while a PM having to resign would normally seem like an ignominious defeat, it would allow the Conservatives the opportunity of campaigning as the insurgent Brexit-focused opposition ..."

    They are on the right track, but as I already suggested, the way to ensure complete success is to have Boris Johnson campaigning as the insurgent Brexit-focused opposition from a prison cell ...
  • Chris said:

    "So, while a PM having to resign would normally seem like an ignominious defeat, it would allow the Conservatives the opportunity of campaigning as the insurgent Brexit-focused opposition ..."

    They are on the right track, but as I already suggested, the way to ensure complete success is to have Boris Johnson campaigning as the insurgent Brexit-focused opposition from a prison cell ...
    I’m sure the Russians would also help out with a “Free Boris Johnson” social media campaign, and offers of help to opponents of the Remain regime like Jacob Rees-Mogg.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    midwinter said:

    justin124 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Correction: Labour are forecast to be on 237, not 245.

    Con 317
    Lab 237
    SNP 52
    LD 22
    PC 3
    Green 1
    BRX 0

    https://www.channel4.com/news/general-election-may-not-end-brexit-impasse-poll-analysis-suggests

    That strikes me as not an unlikely outcome were the election held today. However, governments tend to lose ground during election campaigns.
    Apart from 1987. 1992, 2010.2015 and arguably 1997 I suppose.
    And the I think the Tories were only down about .2% in 1983 from memory.
    Shy Labour?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    edited September 2019

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:

    W

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:
    It's not as if there are any other things needing money to be spent on them.


    Scotland and Ulster are two of the poorest parts of the Uk - would boost both.
    What a brilliant argument. I'm ashamed even to have raised the question of cost.
    Imagine we had said the same about Brunels bridges- or the Chunnel.

    Have some ambition.
    Look, I said I'm ashamed to have mentioned money. Don't make me feel even worse.
    No worries - we can get the EU to pay for it then leave the day it’s finished.
    I think in fairness they should also pay to erect a suitable statue of Boris Johnson - at both ends,
    I thought phallic imagery in public places was forbidden in this country?
    I thought there was a chalk man on a hillside somewhere in the UK? I am sure he is standing to attention as well! :wink:
    And I suppose a fully representative statue would not need to be intrusive. You might indeed need a microscope to see it.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    The idea also has the built in edge of all its opponents thinking they are among the cleverest people in the UK, their smugness might be their undoing as it was in 2016.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    stodge said:



    How many people live anywhere near what would be the Scottish end of it?

    Somebody told me it's only 12 miles from Portpatrick to the North Antrim coast at Ballystrudder but that can't be right.

    If you build a road/rail spur off the A75 and the rail line at Stranraer down to Portpatrick, the Ulster end could link to the A2 road and a high speed line into Belfast. I imagine the water is pretty deep in the North Channel however compared to the English Channel for example - there's also the occasional winter storm or several.

    I don't know how a bridge could be built in such deep water and such extreme conditions.

    The channel tunnel was mainly through chalk though, which made it much much easier than the north channel route would be.
    There is also the most active fault system in the British Isles running through there.
    I take it you mean the Strait of Moyle not the English Channel?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Chris said:

    "So, while a PM having to resign would normally seem like an ignominious defeat, it would allow the Conservatives the opportunity of campaigning as the insurgent Brexit-focused opposition ..."

    They are on the right track, but as I already suggested, the way to ensure complete success is to have Boris Johnson campaigning as the insurgent Brexit-focused opposition from a prison cell ...
    Not sure 'bonking boris' would endure the celibacy! I read an interview somewhere Boris boasted he had not needed to bash the bishop for twenty years and he used probably the most explicite/ vulgar term for that excercise...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231
    If you think allowing a law to prevent no-deal, losing the Premiership to Corbyn, and then getting an extension constitutes a plan, then please, please don't let me interrupt you... :)
  • I just checked the price in Belgium for obvious reasons and that is €1159 and €1259

    The pricing in Europe, including the uk, is always a lot higher.
  • My new iPhone is going to cost me £1,499, which is a bargain at thrice the price.
  • nichomar said:

    isam said:

    stodge said:

    TGOHF said:


    Will the election be respected ? Isn’t that a bit old fashioned?

    No one has ever said an election shouldn't be "respected". It's those people who think a referendum result makes their MP a delegate and obliges them to vote as their constituency did.

    Here's a clue - it doesn't.
    Here's a clue. It should.
    Here's another. They were elected by saying they would.
    Here’s another they were elected to say they would with a deal
    Actually no they weren't
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    My new iPhone is going to cost me £1,499, which is a bargain at thrice the price.
    Why? Does it come with a free pineapple pizza?
  • Here's the Labour 2017 manifesto in which they reject a No Deal Brexit.



  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    edited September 2019

    nichomar said:

    isam said:

    stodge said:

    TGOHF said:


    Will the election be respected ? Isn’t that a bit old fashioned?

    No one has ever said an election shouldn't be "respected". It's those people who think a referendum result makes their MP a delegate and obliges them to vote as their constituency did.

    Here's a clue - it doesn't.
    Here's a clue. It should.
    Here's another. They were elected by saying they would.
    Here’s another they were elected to say they would with a deal
    Actually no they weren't
    Conservative party manifesto 2017:

    Theresa May’s Conservatives will deliver
    • The best possible deal for Britain as we leave the European Union delivered by a smooth, orderly Brexit.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    This article confirms my view that Corbyn will be PM at the end of October.

    https://reaction.life/what-if-dominic-cummings-is-right/
  • rpjs said:

    Come the General Election, is there anything legally to stop a groundswell of grassroots Facebook advertising?

    Say I, as a private individual, pay £25 to Facebook to run a locally targeted campaign saying "Don't vote for your local Conservative candidate ------- ------, he wants 'no deal' and will trash the economy. [Promoted by El Capitano, 10 Main Street, Littletown]".

    Say a few thousand other people do that.

    It's not promoting a particular candidate so doesn't count towards their spending limits. It's just that I choose to spend my £25 that way rather than giving it to a particular party.

    Is that permissible?

    No. Only a candidate or their election agent may authorize expenditure in support of a candidate, and the total expenditure made must stay within the expenditure limit for that constituency. You may recall recent claims at the 2017 or 2015 election that "national" campaign expenditures were being so clearly targeted at local constituency contests that they broke the expenditure limits (did that every go to court in the end?)

    I was involved in the LD campaign in Winchester in 1992 and right at the start a local resident put up a wonderfully well-done but home-made poster supporting us at a very prominent spot. Sadly our agent had to pop round to explain that it wasn't allowed, but was able to get an official poster in its place and the offending one took pride of place in our committee room during the campaign!
    I thought that would be the case - but that's not quite what I'm proposing.

    I'm not suggesting grassroots spending "in support of a candidate". I'm suggesting it against a candidate.

    In other words, attack ads against (presumably) the Conservative candidate in a constituency, while studiously avoiding recommending another candidate to vote for.

    (Of course, in most constituencies, FPTP means there's only one candidate that has a chance of winning, which the target audience will probably know. But those who live by a broken electoral system will die by it also...)
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623

    Who would want to risk being on an exposed bridge in the autumn, winter or spring with gale force winds? The precipitation might be difficult as well to drive through. I went to NI in August and was glad i flew rather than rail and ferry as the sea could have been rough even in the summer. Sounds like a complete non starter to me. A tunnel might be feasable if cost was not an issue but exposed bridge: No chance.
    Bridge to the moon will do fine in lieu then!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068

    I just checked the price in Belgium for obvious reasons and that is €1159 and €1259

    The pricing in Europe, including the uk, is always a lot higher.
    VAT at 20% probably the biggest reason.

    That and Apple customers being mugs!
  • ydoethur said:

    My new iPhone is going to cost me £1,499, which is a bargain at thrice the price.
    Why? Does it come with a free pineapple pizza?
    I'm deeply imbedded in the Apple ecosystem, means I can seamlessly switch from my iPhone, Macbook, iPad, and even my watch.

    I really couldn't edit PB without my phone, nor do my day job.
  • Foxy said:

    I just checked the price in Belgium for obvious reasons and that is €1159 and €1259

    The pricing in Europe, including the uk, is always a lot higher.
    VAT at 20% probably the biggest reason.

    That and Apple customers being mugs!
    The latter. I include myself.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    edited September 2019

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:

    W

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:
    It's not as if there are any other things needing money to be spent on them.


    Scotland and Ulster are two of the poorest parts of the Uk - would boost both.
    What a brilliant argument. I'm ashamed even to have raised the question of cost.
    Imagine we had said the same about Brunels bridges- or the Chunnel.

    Have some ambition.
    Look, I said I'm ashamed to have mentioned money. Don't make me feel even worse.
    No worries - we can get the EU to pay for it then leave the day it’s finished.
    I think in fairness they should also pay to erect a suitable statue of Boris Johnson - at both ends,
    I thought phallic imagery in public places was forbidden in this country?
    I thought there was a chalk man on a hillside somewhere in the UK? I am sure he is standing to attention as well! :wink:
    Cerne Abbas, Dorset

    image
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    To the point about ‘internal’ borders.

    Hong Kong and mainland China?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:
    It's not as if there are any other things needing money to be spent on them.


    Scotland and Ulster are two of the poorest parts of the Uk - would boost both.
    How many people live anywhere near what would be the Scottish end of it?
    This lad doesn't live too far way. Not sure he'd be completely in favour of making it easier for visitors from NI to pop over.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnny_Adair
    The People Bridge
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited September 2019
    AndyJS said:

    This article confirms my view that Corbyn will be PM at the end of October.

    https://reaction.life/what-if-dominic-cummings-is-right/

    Then losing the premiership and a VONC by the beginning of November after extending, leading to a general election with Leavers flocking to the Tories and Remainers divided
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Foxy said:

    I just checked the price in Belgium for obvious reasons and that is €1159 and €1259

    The pricing in Europe, including the uk, is always a lot higher.
    VAT at 20% probably the biggest reason.

    That and Apple customers being mugs!
    Loving my Xiao Mi Poco F1.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    edited September 2019

    I just checked the price in Belgium for obvious reasons and that is €1159 and €1259

    The pricing in Europe, including the uk, is always a lot higher.
    Last year it was $999 = £999 and now it’s $999 = £1049 so there has been an increase beyond the usual price differential.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Who would want to risk being on an exposed bridge in the autumn, winter or spring with gale force winds? The precipitation might be difficult as well to drive through. I went to NI in August and was glad i flew rather than rail and ferry as the sea could have been rough even in the summer. Sounds like a complete non starter to me. A tunnel might be feasable if cost was not an issue but exposed bridge: No chance.
    Bridge to the moon will do fine in lieu then!
    The world's longest sea bridge, spanning three territories, officially opened on Tuesday (Oct 23) to much fanfare.

    Chinese President Xi Jinping had declared the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge officially open at a ceremony in the southern mainland city of Zhuhai. The bridge will link Hong Kong, Macau and the mainland's River Delta cities to form the Greater Bay Area.

    Hailed as an engineering wonder, the US$20 billion (S$27.5 billion) structure is the central plank in China's masterplan to create and develop its own bay area to rival those in San Francisco, New York and Tokyo.

    The bridge, which is built to last 120 years, measures 55km long. It features a main bridge stretching over 30km as well as two artificial islands and link roads totalling 25km.

    The authorities said that the bridge is able to withstand a magnitude-8 earthquake, a super typhoon or a strike by a cargo vessel weighing 300,000 tonnes.

    https://www.straitstimes.com/world/longest-bridges-over-water-in-the-world

    And see link for other examples. I am sure Scotland NI has its own problems, but earthquakes and typhoons are not among them.

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    This article confirms my view that Corbyn will be PM at the end of October.

    https://reaction.life/what-if-dominic-cummings-is-right/

    Then losing the premiership and a VONC by the beginning of November after extending, leading to a general election with Leavers flocking to the Tories and Remainers divided
    @AndyJS We're before the watershed you know.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    ydoethur said:
    Interesting article but misguided in my opinion. You can't sell something by merely wishing for it to be sold. If only it was that easy
  • spire2spire2 Posts: 183
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    This article confirms my view that Corbyn will be PM at the end of October.

    https://reaction.life/what-if-dominic-cummings-is-right/

    Then losing the premiership and a VONC by the beginning of November after extending, leading to a general election with Leavers flocking to the Tories and Remainers divided
    he could always prorogue for a few months
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009

    Chris said:

    "So, while a PM having to resign would normally seem like an ignominious defeat, it would allow the Conservatives the opportunity of campaigning as the insurgent Brexit-focused opposition ..."

    They are on the right track, but as I already suggested, the way to ensure complete success is to have Boris Johnson campaigning as the insurgent Brexit-focused opposition from a prison cell ...
    Not sure 'bonking boris' would endure the celibacy! I read an interview somewhere Boris boasted he had not needed to bash the bishop for twenty years and he used probably the most explicite/ vulgar term for that excercise...
    He probably wouldn't have to endure celibacy. In fact he might not have much choice ...
  • Foxy said:

    I just checked the price in Belgium for obvious reasons and that is €1159 and €1259

    The pricing in Europe, including the uk, is always a lot higher.
    VAT at 20% probably the biggest reason.

    That and Apple customers being mugs!
    crApple :lol:
  • viewcode said:

    If you think allowing a law to prevent no-deal, losing the Premiership to Corbyn, and then getting an extension constitutes a plan, then please, please don't let me interrupt you... :)
    The plan is to win a majority, and then deliver Brexit (or vice versa, though that's not happening now). All else is tactics.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    "So, while a PM having to resign would normally seem like an ignominious defeat, it would allow the Conservatives the opportunity of campaigning as the insurgent Brexit-focused opposition ..."

    They are on the right track, but as I already suggested, the way to ensure complete success is to have Boris Johnson campaigning as the insurgent Brexit-focused opposition from a prison cell ...
    Not sure 'bonking boris' would endure the celibacy! I read an interview somewhere Boris boasted he had not needed to bash the bishop for twenty years and he used probably the most explicite/ vulgar term for that excercise...
    He probably wouldn't have to endure celibacy. In fact he might not have much choice ...
    The buck would certainly stop with him!
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    spire2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    This article confirms my view that Corbyn will be PM at the end of October.

    https://reaction.life/what-if-dominic-cummings-is-right/

    Then losing the premiership and a VONC by the beginning of November after extending, leading to a general election with Leavers flocking to the Tories and Remainers divided
    he could always prorogue for a few months
    A Finance Act will need to be passed sooner or later.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    @TSE re header

    These are not questions that are mutually exclusive.

    However agreeing is easier than disagreeing, at least for questions asked face-to-face. I'm not sure that there's any evidence at all that the wording of referenda have the same bias. (I think it's almost inconceivable that there would be sufficient evidence).

    I'd suggest you revert to your friend, Leonardo, and ask him which textbook. I doubt he'll have familiarity with many, so it should be easy to narrow it down.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    This article confirms my view that Corbyn will be PM at the end of October.

    https://reaction.life/what-if-dominic-cummings-is-right/

    Then losing the premiership and a VONC by the beginning of November after extending, leading to a general election with Leavers flocking to the Tories and Remainers divided
    You were saying earlier that Boris would lead the Cons into glorious opposition.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    spire2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    This article confirms my view that Corbyn will be PM at the end of October.

    https://reaction.life/what-if-dominic-cummings-is-right/

    Then losing the premiership and a VONC by the beginning of November after extending, leading to a general election with Leavers flocking to the Tories and Remainers divided
    he could always prorogue for a few months
    While doing nothing
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited September 2019

    midwinter said:

    justin124 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Correction: Labour are forecast to be on 237, not 245.

    Con 317
    Lab 237
    SNP 52
    LD 22
    PC 3
    Green 1
    BRX 0

    https://www.channel4.com/news/general-election-may-not-end-brexit-impasse-poll-analysis-suggests

    That strikes me as not an unlikely outcome were the election held today. However, governments tend to lose ground during election campaigns.
    Apart from 1987. 1992, 2010.2015 and arguably 1997 I suppose.
    And the I think the Tories were only down about .2% in 1983 from memory.
    The Tories lost ground in the election campaigns of 1983, 1987 and Labour fell back a bit in 2010. Early in the 1983 campaign the Tories were polling in the range of 46% - 52% but ended up on 43.5% on a GB basis. In 1987 the Tories began on 44% - 46% and ended on 43.3%. 2010 saw Labour begin the campaign in the 28% - 33% range with the final result being 29.7%.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    This article confirms my view that Corbyn will be PM at the end of October.

    https://reaction.life/what-if-dominic-cummings-is-right/

    Then losing the premiership and a VONC by the beginning of November after extending, leading to a general election with Leavers flocking to the Tories and Remainers divided
    You were saying earlier that Boris would lead the Cons into glorious opposition.
    Before winning a GE maybe
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    "So, while a PM having to resign would normally seem like an ignominious defeat, it would allow the Conservatives the opportunity of campaigning as the insurgent Brexit-focused opposition ..."

    They are on the right track, but as I already suggested, the way to ensure complete success is to have Boris Johnson campaigning as the insurgent Brexit-focused opposition from a prison cell ...
    Not sure 'bonking boris' would endure the celibacy! I read an interview somewhere Boris boasted he had not needed to bash the bishop for twenty years and he used probably the most explicite/ vulgar term for that excercise...
    He probably wouldn't have to endure celibacy. In fact he might not have much choice ...
    He's firmly opposed to any kind of backstop.
  • I just checked the price in Belgium for obvious reasons and that is €1159 and €1259

    The pricing in Europe, including the uk, is always a lot higher.
    Last year it was $999 = £999 and now it’s $999 = £1049 so there has been an increase beyond the usual price differential.
    The dollar has risen against most major currencies. This is not a brexit effect. It is an effect of the strength of the dollar and the fears for the worldwide economy. The dollar is, still, seen a a safe haven.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    This article confirms my view that Corbyn will be PM at the end of October.

    https://reaction.life/what-if-dominic-cummings-is-right/

    Then losing the premiership and a VONC by the beginning of November after extending, leading to a general election with Leavers flocking to the Tories and Remainers divided
    You were saying earlier that Boris would lead the Cons into glorious opposition.
    Before winning a GE maybe
    How long would he have to wait?
  • HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    This article confirms my view that Corbyn will be PM at the end of October.

    https://reaction.life/what-if-dominic-cummings-is-right/

    Then losing the premiership and a VONC by the beginning of November after extending, leading to a general election with Leavers flocking to the Tories and Remainers divided
    You were saying earlier that Boris would lead the Cons into glorious opposition.
    Before winning a GE maybe
    “maybe”? You OK hun?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    This article confirms my view that Corbyn will be PM at the end of October.

    https://reaction.life/what-if-dominic-cummings-is-right/

    Then losing the premiership and a VONC by the beginning of November after extending, leading to a general election with Leavers flocking to the Tories and Remainers divided
    You were saying earlier that Boris would lead the Cons into glorious opposition.
    These are my confirmed predictions. And, if you don’t like them, I have others.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    justin124 said:

    midwinter said:

    justin124 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Correction: Labour are forecast to be on 237, not 245.

    Con 317
    Lab 237
    SNP 52
    LD 22
    PC 3
    Green 1
    BRX 0

    https://www.channel4.com/news/general-election-may-not-end-brexit-impasse-poll-analysis-suggests

    That strikes me as not an unlikely outcome were the election held today. However, governments tend to lose ground during election campaigns.
    Apart from 1987. 1992, 2010.2015 and arguably 1997 I suppose.
    And the I think the Tories were only down about .2% in 1983 from memory.
    The Tories lost ground in the election campaigns of 1983, 1987 and Labour fell back a bit in 2010. Early in the 1983 campaign the Tories were polling in the range of 46% - 52% but ended up on 43.5% on a GB basis. In 1987 the Tories began on 44% - 46% and ended on 43.3%. 2010 saw Labour begin the campaign in the 28% - 33% range with the final result being 29.7%.
    The Tories gained ground though in 1992 and 2015, in both cases going from hung parliament territory to a majority, Labour also gained ground in 2005
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    This article confirms my view that Corbyn will be PM at the end of October.

    https://reaction.life/what-if-dominic-cummings-is-right/

    Then losing the premiership and a VONC by the beginning of November after extending, leading to a general election with Leavers flocking to the Tories and Remainers divided
    You were saying earlier that Boris would lead the Cons into glorious opposition.
    Before winning a GE maybe
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    This article confirms my view that Corbyn will be PM at the end of October.

    https://reaction.life/what-if-dominic-cummings-is-right/

    Then losing the premiership and a VONC by the beginning of November after extending, leading to a general election with Leavers flocking to the Tories and Remainers divided
    You were saying earlier that Boris would lead the Cons into glorious opposition.
    Before winning a GE maybe
    Priceless.
  • Well I'm looking forward to George Osborne's first conference speech as PM. Since the seemless transition from David Cameron in the summer Ozzy has come into his own, using the Conservative majority in parliament to his advantage.

    Remember folks, if it wasn't for Labour Leave, this would have been reality.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited September 2019
    Omnium said:

    @TSE re header

    These are not questions that are mutually exclusive.

    However agreeing is easier than disagreeing, at least for questions asked face-to-face. I'm not sure that there's any evidence at all that the wording of referenda have the same bias. (I think it's almost inconceivable that there would be sufficient evidence).

    I'd suggest you revert to your friend, Leonardo, and ask him which textbook. I doubt he'll have familiarity with many, so it should be easy to narrow it down.

    From the Shipman book.

    Prior to referendum wording, polling conducted for Vote Leave suggested that a “Remain Member of the EU” Yes/No question elicited about 4 extra % points for Remain than “Remain/Leave”.

    From my own conservations with other pollsters they also found similar things.

    But if you ask Leonardo, a Doctoral candidate in Politics at Oxford University, he'll provide you with plenty more evidence as this is his speciality.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:

    W

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:
    It's not as if there are any other things needing money to be spent on them.


    Scotland and Ulster are two of the poorest parts of the Uk - would boost both.
    What a brilliant argument. I'm ashamed even to have raised the question of cost.
    Imagine we had said the same about Brunels bridges- or the Chunnel.

    Have some ambition.
    Look, I said I'm ashamed to have mentioned money. Don't make me feel even worse.
    No worries - we can get the EU to pay for it then leave the day it’s finished.
    I think in fairness they should also pay to erect a suitable statue of Boris Johnson - at both ends,
    I thought phallic imagery in public places was forbidden in this country?
    I thought there was a chalk man on a hillside somewhere in the UK? I am sure he is standing to attention as well! :wink:
    Cerne Abbas, Dorset

    image
    That’s a big club he’s waving about
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    viewcode said:

    If you think allowing a law to prevent no-deal, losing the Premiership to Corbyn, and then getting an extension constitutes a plan, then please, please don't let me interrupt you... :)
    The plan is to win a majority, and then deliver Brexit (or vice versa, though that's not happening now). All else is tactics.
    Ah, hello @Tissue_Price - are you in support of this extreme right caricature of a Conservative Party?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan"

    Possible up to 5.

    6 looks unlikely: the temporary coalition would hold up to 1 November at least to shepherd the extension over the line. It might well hold a bit longer. You’re more likely to see Jeremy Corbyn proactively agree to an early election then than see a successful vote of no confidence against his wishes.

    On 7, you have to allow at least 25 working days after the 14 days. So we’d be looking at a Christmas election.

    Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal".

    Possible up to 5.

    6 looks unlikely: the temporary coalition would hold up to 1 November at least to shepherd the extension over the line. It might well hold a bit longer. You’re more likely to see Jeremy Corbyn proactively agree to an early election then than see a successful vote of no confidence against his wishes.

    On 7, you have to allow at least 25 working days after the 14 days. So we’d be looking at a Christmas election.
    If an election isn’t called by 6th November (for Thurs 12th December) there won’t be one until Thurs 14th February at the earliest.
    Maybe - though we did have January elections in 1910 and 1906.
    Noone is going to be running a GE campaign over Christmas and the NY.

    The electorate would go ballistic with every politician from every party who tried it, and then vote monster raving loony on the day.
    Indeed - but that would not rule out polling day being 23rd or 30th January.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Freggles said:

    Thanks all for providing some occasional entertainment over the last two days. This afternoon I became a father again after a long, drawn out induction of labour.

    Many congrats.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Freggles said:

    Thanks all for providing some occasional entertainment over the last two days. This afternoon I became a father again after a long, drawn out induction of labour.

    Many congrats @Freggles !
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836
    Freggles said:

    Thanks all for providing some occasional entertainment over the last two days. This afternoon I became a father again after a long, drawn out induction of labour.

    Congratulations, sir!
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    Freggles said:
    Another argument for AV. (Let's not rehearse them)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Freggles said:

    Thanks all for providing some occasional entertainment over the last two days. This afternoon I became a father again after a long, drawn out induction of labour.

    Congratulations
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited September 2019

    Here's the Labour 2017 manifesto in which they reject a No Deal Brexit.



    nichomar said:

    isam said:

    stodge said:

    TGOHF said:


    Will the election be respected ? Isn’t that a bit old fashioned?

    No one has ever said an election shouldn't be "respected". It's those people who think a referendum result makes their MP a delegate and obliges them to vote as their constituency did.

    Here's a clue - it doesn't.
    Here's a clue. It should.
    Here's another. They were elected by saying they would.
    Here’s another they were elected to say they would with a deal
    Actually no they weren't
    Conservative party manifesto 2017:

    Theresa May’s Conservatives will deliver
    • The best possible deal for Britain as we leave the European Union delivered by a smooth, orderly Brexit.
    What that means is there should be zero talk of Remain
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited September 2019
    Freggles said:

    Thanks all for providing some occasional entertainment over the last two days. This afternoon I became a father again after a long, drawn out induction of labour.

    Congratulations.

    You do realise your sleep patterns for the foreseeable future are like a stepmom on pornhub, totally fucked.
  • Freggles said:

    Thanks all for providing some occasional entertainment over the last two days. This afternoon I became a father again after a long, drawn out induction of labour.

    Congratulations!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,743
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    This article confirms my view that Corbyn will be PM at the end of October.

    https://reaction.life/what-if-dominic-cummings-is-right/

    Then losing the premiership and a VONC by the beginning of November after extending, leading to a general election with Leavers flocking to the Tories and Remainers divided
    What happens if that isn't enough and Boris fails to win a majority? Presumably if he fails his tenure as Conservative leader will also end.

    IF the pro-Remain parties form the Government after a GE and revoke, what then for the Conservatives?
  • A bridge over to the island of Ireland is technologically feasible. There are four often-considered routes:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Isles_fixed_sea_link_connections

    One thing I'd add, having recently been on a short trip to Wigtown, near Stranraer: it takes an age to get from the M6 at Gretna to Stranraer, and that part of the M6 is a long way from the main potential traffic flows - there's a reason that Holyhead has traditionally been more popular (and why that great Scot Telford helped improve the route to it). It's much worse for the Kintyre route.

    Passenger volumes for the routes are available at:
    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/682688/sea-passengers-short-sea-routes-provisional-2017.pdf
This discussion has been closed.