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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Fewer than half of Leave voters would consider a No Deal Brexi

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited September 10 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Fewer than half of Leave voters would consider a No Deal Brexit a success

Would Brits see a no-deal Brexit as a success or a failure? A failure: 48%A success: 24%Neither: 16%https://t.co/s0S7LwaCCm pic.twitter.com/nuyJshWMl7

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,651
    First
  • glwglw Posts: 5,372
    It's only a 1,000,000:1 chance, according to PM Johnson, so what is everyone worrying about?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    Second like Kosovo, after a brave effort. They'd have done it but for those pesky 5 goals...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    edited September 10
    Only 43% of Con voters make No Deal a success. And a quarter a failure. Which is surely why it mustn't happen. Surely???
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182
    No Deal is extremely high risk. It likely does result in a permanent discrediting of the entire Eurosceptic cause, and to our rejoining the EU on standard terms that will include joining the Euro, Schengen and full federalism.

    No rational Leaver should go anywhere near it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    edited September 10
    Even Boris has said No Deal would not be a success but given diehard Remainers have refused 3 times to vote for the only Brexit Deal on the table if we go to No Deal it will be no more than they deserve for showing contempt for democracy and the biggest democratic vote in post war British history.

    Note No Deal is also the first choice Brexit option for voters now with Yougov, followed by a renegotiated Boris Deal and Remain

  • isamisam Posts: 27,683

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387

    No Deal is extremely high risk. It likely does result in a permanent discrediting of the entire Eurosceptic cause, and to our rejoining the EU on standard terms that will include joining the Euro, Schengen and full federalism.

    No rational Leaver should go anywhere near it.

    It wouldn't, at most it would lead to us rejoining the EEA
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,863
    Rafael Behr:

    Those who depict the Tory leader as a British Trump (including the US president himself) underestimate his capacity for cowardice. He also likes to be liked, which is why he promises contradictory things to different people. As mayor of London, he could be persuaded to support and oppose the same idea in consecutive meetings. I have heard from a number of sources how Johnson, as foreign secretary, asked officials to explain the problem with Brexit and the Good Friday agreement, and decided that the solution was to hide the border in the Irish sea. Northern Ireland could be an exclave of regulatory alignment with Brussels – the original “Northern Ireland-only” backstop model proposed by the EU. Only when the DUP freaked out – and hardline Tory backbenchers cried betrayal – did Johnson recoil from customs checks at the port of Larne.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/10/boris-johnson-brexit-theresa-may-withdrawal-agreement
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,778
    dixiedean said:

    Second like Kosovo, after a brave effort. They'd have done it but for those pesky 5 goals...

    Do you mind - I am still watching this on catch-up!
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 698
    HYUFD said:

    Even Boris has said No Deal eoukd not be a success but given diehard Remainers have refused 3 times to vote for the only Brexit Deal on the table if we go to No Deal it will be no more than they deserve for showing contempt for democracy and the biggest democratic vote in post war British history.

    Note No Deal is also the first choice Brexit option for voters now with Yougov, followed by a renegotiated Boris Deal and Remain

    Contempt for democracy started with Leaver cheating and lying.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,312
    FPT:
    Carnyx said:

    Ah! Thank you. That's very interesting - could well be the solution. I had been wondering how they would protect against the 30-bar overpressures from 300m depth water.

    Fascinating to see it was Reed the naval architect who thought of it (the chap who had a very hard tine because he refused to support the media campaign for HMS Captain which promptly turned turtle ...).

    HMS Captain was a classic example of public opinion and domineering characters overturning experts, and ending in disaster.

    It does make me wonder if Brexit is the HMS Captain of the 2010s. At least Coles did the decent thing and went down with the ship ... ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    Fenman said:

    HYUFD said:

    Even Boris has said No Deal eoukd not be a success but given diehard Remainers have refused 3 times to vote for the only Brexit Deal on the table if we go to No Deal it will be no more than they deserve for showing contempt for democracy and the biggest democratic vote in post war British history.

    Note No Deal is also the first choice Brexit option for voters now with Yougov, followed by a renegotiated Boris Deal and Remain

    Contempt for democracy started with Leaver cheating and lying.
    Diehard Remainers have had nothing but contempt for democracy ever since running an abysmal campaign based on complacency and fear
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489
    HYUFD said:

    Fenman said:

    HYUFD said:

    Even Boris has said No Deal eoukd not be a success but given diehard Remainers have refused 3 times to vote for the only Brexit Deal on the table if we go to No Deal it will be no more than they deserve for showing contempt for democracy and the biggest democratic vote in post war British history.

    Note No Deal is also the first choice Brexit option for voters now with Yougov, followed by a renegotiated Boris Deal and Remain

    Contempt for democracy started with Leaver cheating and lying.
    Diehard Remainers have had nothing but contempt for democracy ever since running an abysmal campaign based on complacency and fear
    Meaningless drivel.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,733
    edited September 10
    Intereting piece discussed in previous thread

    https://reaction.life/what-if-dominic-cummings-is-right/

    I think the big danger with the Con government resigning and letting Corbyn take over is that he'll stick it out as long as he can before calling an election.

    For HMQ to appoint him as PM he'll have to prove he has the confidence of the House.

    That will mean both SNP and Lib-Dems having to promise to support him in a VONC and/or Queens Speech before he goes to Buckingham Palace.

    The idea for example that HMQ could ask him to form a government on 19th October and then he gets no confidenced on 22nd October just after he's written the letter to the EU is crazy.

    HMQ is not there to be played in this way and the country that already looks like it's totally lose the plot will look even madder (and why would Corbyn accept becoming PM for three days purely to write a letter and then let himself he defeated?)

    Without assurances from SNP and Lib's he'd just tell HMQ he can't command a majority and he'd sit it out and see what happens.

    So if Boris hands over to Corbyn expect him to be in power, supported by SNP and Lib-Dems, for at least six months and quite probably significantly longer.
  • HYUFD said:

    Fenman said:

    HYUFD said:

    Even Boris has said No Deal eoukd not be a success but given diehard Remainers have refused 3 times to vote for the only Brexit Deal on the table if we go to No Deal it will be no more than they deserve for showing contempt for democracy and the biggest democratic vote in post war British history.

    Note No Deal is also the first choice Brexit option for voters now with Yougov, followed by a renegotiated Boris Deal and Remain

    Contempt for democracy started with Leaver cheating and lying.
    Diehard Remainers
    "I am an EXCEPTIONAL Remainer, Mr. HYUFD, and since I'm moving up to Rejoining, you should be more polite!"
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,335
    GIN1138 said:

    Intereting piece discussed in previous thread

    https://reaction.life/what-if-dominic-cummings-is-right/

    I think the big danger with the Con government resigning and letting Corbyn take over is that he'll stick it out as long as he can before calling an election.

    For HMQ to appoint him as PM he'll have to prove he has the confidence of the House.

    That will mean both SNP and Lib-Dems having to promise to support him in a VONC and/or Queens Speech before he goes to Buckingham Palace.

    The idea for example that HMQ could ask him to form a gfovernment on 19th October and then he gets no confidenced on 22nd October just after he's written the letter is crazy. HMQ is not there to be played in this way and the country that already looks like it's totally lose the plot will look even madder (and why would Corbyn accept becoming PM for three days purely to write a letter and then let himself he defeated?)

    Without assurances from SNP and Lib's he'd just tell HMQ he can't command a majority and he'd sit it out and see what happens.

    So if Boris hands over to Corbyn expect him to be in power, supported by SNP and Lib-Dems, for at least six months and quite probably significantly longer.

    He gets 14 days. That's already part of the protocol.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,677
    Danny565 said:
    In general Republicans do better
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,778
    HYUFD said:

    Fenman said:

    HYUFD said:

    Even Boris has said No Deal eoukd not be a success but given diehard Remainers have refused 3 times to vote for the only Brexit Deal on the table if we go to No Deal it will be no more than they deserve for showing contempt for democracy and the biggest democratic vote in post war British history.

    Note No Deal is also the first choice Brexit option for voters now with Yougov, followed by a renegotiated Boris Deal and Remain

    Contempt for democracy started with Leaver cheating and lying.
    Diehard Remainers have had nothing but contempt for democracy ever since running an abysmal campaign based on complacency and fear
    "Traitorous Dehard Remainers", please.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,123
    edited September 10
    GIN1138 said:

    Intereting piece discussed in previous thread

    https://reaction.life/what-if-dominic-cummings-is-right/

    I think the big danger with the Con government resigning and letting Corbyn take over is that he'll stick it out as long as he can before calling an election.

    For HMQ to appoint him as PM he'll have to prove he has the confidence of the House.

    That will mean both SNP and Lib-Dems having to promise to support him in a VONC and/or Queens Speech before he goes to Buckingham Palace.

    The idea for example that HMQ could ask him to form a gfovernment on 19th October and then he gets no confidenced on 22nd October just after he's written the letter is crazy. HMQ is not there to be played in this way and the country that already looks like it's totally lose the plot will look even madder (and why would Corbyn accept becoming PM for three days purely to write a letter and then let himself he defeated?)

    Without assurances from SNP and Lib's he'd just tell HMQ he can't command a majority and he'd sit it out and see what happens.

    So if Boris hands over to Corbyn expect him to be in power, supported by SNP and Lib-Dems, for at least six months and quite probably significantly longer.

    The Queen appointed Boris Johnson PM without him proving he had the confidence of the House.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,863
    Dadge said:
    Doesn't work -- Benn bill specifies that "The Deal" must be approved by the Commons, not just tabled by the govt.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 4,323

    FPT:

    Carnyx said:

    Ah! Thank you. That's very interesting - could well be the solution. I had been wondering how they would protect against the 30-bar overpressures from 300m depth water.

    Fascinating to see it was Reed the naval architect who thought of it (the chap who had a very hard tine because he refused to support the media campaign for HMS Captain which promptly turned turtle ...).

    HMS Captain was a classic example of public opinion and domineering characters overturning experts, and ending in disaster.

    It does make me wonder if Brexit is the HMS Captain of the 2010s. At least Coles did the decent thing and went down with the ship ... ;)
    As did two sons of the politicians/senior officers involved. Which is probably a moral for our times. As is the official inquiry conclusion, fide Wikipedia: "the Captain was built in deference to public opinion expressed in Parliament and through other channels, and in opposition to views and opinions of the Controller and his Department". Experts, eh?

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,733
    edited September 10

    GIN1138 said:

    Intereting piece discussed in previous thread

    https://reaction.life/what-if-dominic-cummings-is-right/

    I think the big danger with the Con government resigning and letting Corbyn take over is that he'll stick it out as long as he can before calling an election.

    For HMQ to appoint him as PM he'll have to prove he has the confidence of the House.

    That will mean both SNP and Lib-Dems having to promise to support him in a VONC and/or Queens Speech before he goes to Buckingham Palace.

    The idea for example that HMQ could ask him to form a gfovernment on 19th October and then he gets no confidenced on 22nd October just after he's written the letter is crazy. HMQ is not there to be played in this way and the country that already looks like it's totally lose the plot will look even madder (and why would Corbyn accept becoming PM for three days purely to write a letter and then let himself he defeated?)

    Without assurances from SNP and Lib's he'd just tell HMQ he can't command a majority and he'd sit it out and see what happens.

    So if Boris hands over to Corbyn expect him to be in power, supported by SNP and Lib-Dems, for at least six months and quite probably significantly longer.

    The Queen appointed Boris Johnson PM without him proving he had the confidence of the House.
    Well at that point Con+DUP did reach a majroity (just)

    That's fallen apart now but at the time he had a majority and Theresa May told HMQ to call Boris as he could command a mjaoity of the House (presumably Boris won't be recomending HMQ calls Jezza)
  • HYUFD said:

    Even Boris has said No Deal would not be a success but given diehard Remainers have refused 3 times to vote for the only Brexit Deal on the table if we go to No Deal it will be no more than they deserve for showing contempt for democracy and the biggest democratic vote in post war British history.

    Note No Deal is also the first choice Brexit option for voters now with Yougov, followed by a renegotiated Boris Deal and Remain

    WTF is Boris Deal?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489
    Dadge said:
    Nah. My understanding is that the act merely states that the ‘reason’ for the extension is to bring the WA back for a vote.

    That is it.

    It does not effect the length or acceptance of the extension.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,683
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489
    isam said:
    Um. No.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,683

    isam said:
    Um. No.
    Afraid so old chum
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,292
    The Leave vote has splintered. That is what we are seeing! I suspect many who voted Leave are having second thoughts. Simply no longer worth the hassle. Chasing after the Leave vote for the next GE is like trying to find the end of a rainbow or mirage. The tide has turned and the Tories for instance are likley to be left on the shooreline. An interesting parellel to Brexit is when the miners strike came to a halt. I remember the way the miners marched claiming a moral victory when it was abundantly clear they had failed, if Brexit is cancelled the Brexiteers should honour the defeat but remember the cost of no deal would have been something totally unacceptable to UK society. A deal to Leave would have been acceptable, No Deal a catastrophy...
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,470
    Dadge said:
    The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489
    isam said:

    isam said:
    Um. No.
    Afraid so old chum
    Clearly not as no deal has been ruled out without the say so of Parliament.

    So tough. You can stuff your victim blaming bullsh*t.
  • isam said:
    Leave-supporting MPs should have indeed voted for it. Yes, I agree with you there.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,566

    HYUFD said:

    Even Boris has said No Deal would not be a success but given diehard Remainers have refused 3 times to vote for the only Brexit Deal on the table if we go to No Deal it will be no more than they deserve for showing contempt for democracy and the biggest democratic vote in post war British history.

    Note No Deal is also the first choice Brexit option for voters now with Yougov, followed by a renegotiated Boris Deal and Remain

    WTF is Boris Deal?
    Presumably one based on a lie, and drawn up on the back of a fag packet, that the EU won’t agree to ?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,733
    People will look back and see this week was the last opportunity when any kind of sanity could have been returned in a 15th October election.

    Total chaos and probable disaster now awaits IMO.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,683

    isam said:
    Leave-supporting MPs should have indeed voted for it. Yes, I agree with you there.
    All MPs should have as a matter of course, if they meant what they said about honouring the result of the referendum. Unfortunately they are too full of their own self importance to do the right thing.
  • nico67 said:

    Dadge said:
    The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
    If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?

    Is it because they might lose?
  • Telegraph has a question as its front page headline.

    Regardless of what the question might be, that’s a new low for a once-great newspaper.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,683
    edited September 10

    isam said:

    isam said:
    Um. No.
    Afraid so old chum
    Clearly not as no deal has been ruled out without the say so of Parliament.

    So tough. You can stuff your victim blaming bullsh*t.
    Haha tough guy!

    But the fact remains, the MPs who refused to respect the referendum result, despite being elected on a promise to do do, are to blame for the situation we are now in
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,470
    Good of the DT to spin a NI backstop into something different . The Bozo fan rag would still be salivating over him if he said let’s stay in the single market and CU.

    So desperate is the right wing press to claim victory for Bozo that he can bring any deal back .
  • No one can claim anything for the Brexit vote other than what was on the ballot paper:

    "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,549

    No Deal is extremely high risk. It likely does result in a permanent discrediting of the entire Eurosceptic cause, and to our rejoining the EU on standard terms that will include joining the Euro, Schengen and full federalism.

    No rational Leaver should go anywhere near it.

    Which is why many Remainers are not very bothered whether it is No Deal or not.
  • isam said:

    isam said:
    Leave-supporting MPs should have indeed voted for it. Yes, I agree with you there.
    All MPs should have as a matter of course, if they meant what they said about honouring the result of the referendum. Unfortunately they are too full of their own self importance to do the right thing.
    If you wanted to leave, your fellow travellers in parliament had their chance to do it.

    They chose not to.
  • nico67 said:

    Dadge said:
    The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
    If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?

    Is it because they might lose?
    Its because they believe in democracy which involves actually acting on the result of a vote rather than just ignoring it.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489
    isam said:

    isam said:
    Leave-supporting MPs should have indeed voted for it. Yes, I agree with you there.
    All MPs should have as a matter of course, if they meant what they said about honouring the result of the referendum. Unfortunately they are too full of their own self importance to do the right thing.
    No. “Vote for this deal which is not what was in your manifestos or we’ll plunge the country into uncertainty and chaos and it will be all your fault”

    The referendum did not have a time limit. It does not need to be implemented by an arbitrary date.

    The only reason you guys are desperate to implement it now is because you know public opinion has turned and are terrified of losing your one chance for us to leave the EU.

    You call Corbyn frit but its you that are frit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    edited September 10

    nico67 said:

    Dadge said:
    The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
    If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?

    Is it because they might lose?
    It is because if you have an election you respect the result, you do not refuse to implement it the next day.

    Plus given you spent most of the referendum campaign screaming 'BeLeave in Britain' I would have hoped you would now agree that Boris is?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,778
    nico67 said:

    Dadge said:
    The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
    In any event, unless the Deal is passed (or the HoC approves No Deal) the PM has to seek an extension.
  • Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Even Boris has said No Deal would not be a success but given diehard Remainers have refused 3 times to vote for the only Brexit Deal on the table if we go to No Deal it will be no more than they deserve for showing contempt for democracy and the biggest democratic vote in post war British history.

    Note No Deal is also the first choice Brexit option for voters now with Yougov, followed by a renegotiated Boris Deal and Remain

    WTF is Boris Deal?
    Presumably one based on a lie, and drawn up on the back of a fag packet, that the EU won’t agree to ?
    Ah yes, that rings a distant bell
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489

    nico67 said:

    Dadge said:
    The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
    If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?

    Is it because they might lose?
    They are the biggest chickens around. Growth hormones and all.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:
    Um. No.
    Afraid so old chum
    Clearly not as no deal has been ruled out without the say so of Parliament.

    So tough. You can stuff your victim blaming bullsh*t.
    Haha tough guy!

    But the fact remains, the MPs who refused to respect the referendum result, despite being elected on a promise to do do, are to blame for the situation we are now in
    No. Leavers are to blame.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,863
    edited September 10
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387

    HYUFD said:

    Even Boris has said No Deal would not be a success but given diehard Remainers have refused 3 times to vote for the only Brexit Deal on the table if we go to No Deal it will be no more than they deserve for showing contempt for democracy and the biggest democratic vote in post war British history.

    Note No Deal is also the first choice Brexit option for voters now with Yougov, followed by a renegotiated Boris Deal and Remain

    WTF is Boris Deal?
    Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop
  • Dadge said:
    Nah. My understanding is that the act merely states that the ‘reason’ for the extension is to bring the WA back for a vote.

    That is it.

    It does not effect the length or acceptance of the extension.
    If the reason for the extension is to bring the WA back for a vote then surely there's no need for an extension if the WA has already been brought back for a vote.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 9,650
    edited September 10


    Goodness gracious...Lib Dems Down, Labour 1 point behind...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489

    nico67 said:

    Dadge said:
    The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
    If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?

    Is it because they might lose?
    Its because they believe in democracy which involves actually acting on the result of a vote rather than just ignoring it.
    Nope. You guys know you have failed and you’re scared of that being found out.
  • It seems a long time ago that ComRes were predicting a 150 seat landslide for Boris Johnson during the Tory leadership contest.
  • Danny565 said:
    #masterplan

    @HYUFD to pop along soon to explain that Baxter gives the Tories a majority of 50, or something.
  • It's even harder to claim there is a mandate for Remain.
  • "Con lead of 1% still gives Boris a majority of 100 over the Diehard Remainers!"
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 9,171
    HYUFD said:

    Fenman said:

    HYUFD said:

    Even Boris has said No Deal eoukd not be a success but given diehard Remainers have refused 3 times to vote for the only Brexit Deal on the table if we go to No Deal it will be no more than they deserve for showing contempt for democracy and the biggest democratic vote in post war British history.

    Note No Deal is also the first choice Brexit option for voters now with Yougov, followed by a renegotiated Boris Deal and Remain

    Contempt for democracy started with Leaver cheating and lying.
    Diehard Remainers have had nothing but contempt for democracy ever since running an abysmal campaign based on complacency and fear
    Well they managed to persuade you to vote for them!
  • nico67 said:

    Dadge said:
    The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
    If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?

    Is it because they might lose?
    They are the biggest chickens around. Growth hormones and all.
    It is because you dont just re-run polls you lose.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,863
    That Comres poll on uniform swing...

    Tories 286
    Labour 250
    Lib Dems 29
    Brexit 1
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489

    nico67 said:

    Dadge said:
    The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
    If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?

    Is it because they might lose?
    They are the biggest chickens around. Growth hormones and all.
    It is because you dont just re-run polls you lose.
    🐔

  • Green surge, taking votes off the Liberals in yellow-blue marginals.
  • It's even harder to claim there is a mandate for Remain.
    Nah, intelligent and long standing Leavers like Casino Royale know what No Deal means.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,470
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:
    Um. No.
    Afraid so old chum
    Clearly not as no deal has been ruled out without the say so of Parliament.

    So tough. You can stuff your victim blaming bullsh*t.
    Haha tough guy!

    But the fact remains, the MPs who refused to respect the referendum result, despite being elected on a promise to do do, are to blame for the situation we are now in
    If the negotiations were cross party then Labour would have had to own any deal . The government acted as if it had a huge majority .

    After 2017 a rethink was needed. The Tories own Brexit , lock stock and barrel .

    A soft Brexit could have been delivered . That could have got a large majority of public support until the ERG nutjobs and the right wing press decided that no deal was allegedly the mandate .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    1% swing from LD to Tory since the last poll and 1.5% swing from Tory to Labour and Tories still in front overall
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,778
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Even Boris has said No Deal would not be a success but given diehard Remainers have refused 3 times to vote for the only Brexit Deal on the table if we go to No Deal it will be no more than they deserve for showing contempt for democracy and the biggest democratic vote in post war British history.

    Note No Deal is also the first choice Brexit option for voters now with Yougov, followed by a renegotiated Boris Deal and Remain

    WTF is Boris Deal?
    Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop
    Deal An agreement between parties.

    That's parties plural. Until and unless the EU agree to it, it is not a 'deal'.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489
    Still waiting for Boris on 40%.
  • nico67 said:

    Dadge said:
    The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
    If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?

    Is it because they might lose?
    They are the biggest chickens around. Growth hormones and all.
    It is because you dont just re-run polls you lose.
    🐔
    Not really. Im not afraid of a second poll. I voted remain the first time but would certainly vote leave now.

    But i recognise the immense damage such a vote would do.
  • The Leave vote has splintered. That is what we are seeing! I suspect many who voted Leave are having second thoughts. Simply no longer worth the hassle. Chasing after the Leave vote for the next GE is like trying to find the end of a rainbow or mirage. The tide has turned and the Tories for instance are likley to be left on the shooreline. An interesting parellel to Brexit is when the miners strike came to a halt. I remember the way the miners marched claiming a moral victory when it was abundantly clear they had failed, if Brexit is cancelled the Brexiteers should honour the defeat but remember the cost of no deal would have been something totally unacceptable to UK society. A deal to Leave would have been acceptable, No Deal a catastrophy...

    If you think we will honour having democracy wrecked then you are utterly mad. You and your kind have done your best to overturn a democratic vote and you will reap what you sowed. There will be no peace and no reconciliation.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,778

    Danny565 said:
    #masterplan

    @HYUFD to pop along soon to explain that Baxter gives the Tories a majority of 50, or something.

    41 short of a majority I believe; 285 Con MPs so three less than today.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387

    It seems a long time ago that ComRes were predicting a 150 seat landslide for Boris Johnson during the Tory leadership contest.

    Comres swings all over the place and has the highest Labour figures of any pollster, of course any Boris win depends on him committing to deliver Brexit
  • It's even harder to claim there is a mandate for Remain.
    Nah, intelligent and long standing Leavers like Casino Royale know what No Deal means.
    What is that "damage"? Can you spell it out? With certainty?

    Your posts are consistent (some might even say "relentless") on the topic. But what would be the actual effects of such a no deal scenario?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489

    nico67 said:

    Dadge said:
    The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
    If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?

    Is it because they might lose?
    They are the biggest chickens around. Growth hormones and all.
    It is because you dont just re-run polls you lose.
    🐔
    Not really. Im not afraid of a second poll. I voted remain the first time but would certainly vote leave now.

    But i recognise the immense damage such a vote would do.
    Haha. If public opinion hasn’t changed there is nothing to lose by having a 2nd ref. If it has changed, then why should we implement something the public doesn’t want?

    Frit. Frit. Frit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    Scott_P said:
    So Swinson still holds the balance of power and would veto Corbyn as as PM
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489

    The Leave vote has splintered. That is what we are seeing! I suspect many who voted Leave are having second thoughts. Simply no longer worth the hassle. Chasing after the Leave vote for the next GE is like trying to find the end of a rainbow or mirage. The tide has turned and the Tories for instance are likley to be left on the shooreline. An interesting parellel to Brexit is when the miners strike came to a halt. I remember the way the miners marched claiming a moral victory when it was abundantly clear they had failed, if Brexit is cancelled the Brexiteers should honour the defeat but remember the cost of no deal would have been something totally unacceptable to UK society. A deal to Leave would have been acceptable, No Deal a catastrophy...

    If you think we will honour having democracy wrecked then you are utterly mad. You and your kind have done your best to overturn a democratic vote and you will reap what you sowed. There will be no peace and no reconciliation.
    Yawn. It is deathcult leavers who are doing this. Feel the guilt.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,778
    HYUFD said:

    1% swing from LD to Tory since the last poll and 1.5% swing from Tory to Labour and Tories still in front overall
    Good effort - you are exhibiting May-like levels of perseverance.
  • nico67 said:

    Dadge said:
    The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
    If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?

    Is it because they might lose?
    They are the biggest chickens around. Growth hormones and all.
    It is because you dont just re-run polls you lose.
    "Bring 'em on! I'd prefer a straight fight to all this sneaking around!"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387

    nico67 said:

    Dadge said:
    The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
    If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?

    Is it because they might lose?
    They are the biggest chickens around. Growth hormones and all.
    It is because you dont just re-run polls you lose.
    🐔
    Not really. Im not afraid of a second poll. I voted remain the first time but would certainly vote leave now.

    But i recognise the immense damage such a vote would do.
    Leavers would of course not accept defeat but on the very next day just step up the aggression exactly as diehard Remainers refused to accept the result of the first vote
  • nico67 said:

    Dadge said:
    The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
    If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?

    Is it because they might lose?
    Its because they believe in democracy which involves actually acting on the result of a vote rather than just ignoring it.
    Nope. You guys know you have failed and you’re scared of that being found out.
    I am scared of what this country will become when millions of people realise democracy is a fraud.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,292

    The Leave vote has splintered. That is what we are seeing! I suspect many who voted Leave are having second thoughts. Simply no longer worth the hassle. Chasing after the Leave vote for the next GE is like trying to find the end of a rainbow or mirage. The tide has turned and the Tories for instance are likley to be left on the shooreline. An interesting parellel to Brexit is when the miners strike came to a halt. I remember the way the miners marched claiming a moral victory when it was abundantly clear they had failed, if Brexit is cancelled the Brexiteers should honour the defeat but remember the cost of no deal would have been something totally unacceptable to UK society. A deal to Leave would have been acceptable, No Deal a catastrophy...

    If you think we will honour having democracy wrecked then you are utterly mad. You and your kind have done your best to overturn a democratic vote and you will reap what you sowed. There will be no peace and no reconciliation.
    Fine. :smiley:
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489
    There is no damage caused by having a 2nd ref. That is nonsense. The only damage will be to sore loser Leavers who can’t accept that the public no longer wants Brexit after seeing the reality.
  • nico67 said:

    Dadge said:
    The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
    If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?

    Is it because they might lose?
    They are the biggest chickens around. Growth hormones and all.
    It is because you dont just re-run polls you lose.
    🐔
    Not really. Im not afraid of a second poll. I voted remain the first time but would certainly vote leave now.

    But i recognise the immense damage such a vote would do.
    Haha. If public opinion hasn’t changed there is nothing to lose by having a 2nd ref. If it has changed, then why should we implement something the public doesn’t want?

    Frit. Frit. Frit.
    I really am not. And the point is a simple one. Of principle. You dont re-run polls just because you lose. If you treat the referendum result as somehow illegitimate then why should any leaver in future accept a poll result they dont agree with?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,778
    HYUFD said:

    It seems a long time ago that ComRes were predicting a 150 seat landslide for Boris Johnson during the Tory leadership contest.

    Comres swings all over the place and has the highest Labour figures of any pollster, of course any Boris win depends on him committing to deliver Brexit
    Er... Are the current uninspiring Tory poll figures due to Boris being a bit flaky on Brexit?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489

    nico67 said:

    Dadge said:
    The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
    If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?

    Is it because they might lose?
    Its because they believe in democracy which involves actually acting on the result of a vote rather than just ignoring it.
    Nope. You guys know you have failed and you’re scared of that being found out.
    I am scared of what this country will become when millions of people realise democracy is a fraud.
    Hyperbolic nonsense. Give your head a shake.

    If public opinion has not changed then you have nothing to fear.
  • There is no damage caused by having a 2nd ref. That is nonsense. The only damage will be to sore loser Leavers who can’t accept that the public no longer wants Brexit after seeing the reality.

    Now we know you are having a laugh.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387

    HYUFD said:

    1% swing from LD to Tory since the last poll and 1.5% swing from Tory to Labour and Tories still in front overall
    Good effort - you are exhibiting May-like levels of perseverance.
    The final Comres poll of 2015 also had a 1% Tory lead, the next night the Tories got a 7% lead and an overall majority
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,014

    The Leave vote has splintered. That is what we are seeing! I suspect many who voted Leave are having second thoughts. Simply no longer worth the hassle. Chasing after the Leave vote for the next GE is like trying to find the end of a rainbow or mirage. The tide has turned and the Tories for instance are likley to be left on the shooreline. An interesting parellel to Brexit is when the miners strike came to a halt. I remember the way the miners marched claiming a moral victory when it was abundantly clear they had failed, if Brexit is cancelled the Brexiteers should honour the defeat but remember the cost of no deal would have been something totally unacceptable to UK society. A deal to Leave would have been acceptable, No Deal a catastrophy...

    There's no evidence of that from the headline numbers in the opinion polls. The Conservative + Brexit Party aggregate is steady in the range 44-49% so if the Tories have lost some moderate Remain support it has been balanced by Leavers leaving Labour in the other direction.

    I wish it were otherwise, but I don't see it.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,863
    edited September 10
    Who would've thought that Corbyn vetoing an election would turn out to be the most popular thing he's done in two years.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489

    nico67 said:

    Dadge said:
    The deal could be amended to include a second EU ref . So could blow up in Bozos face.
    If Leavers are so confident that they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?

    Is it because they might lose?
    They are the biggest chickens around. Growth hormones and all.
    It is because you dont just re-run polls you lose.
    🐔
    Not really. Im not afraid of a second poll. I voted remain the first time but would certainly vote leave now.

    But i recognise the immense damage such a vote would do.
    Haha. If public opinion hasn’t changed there is nothing to lose by having a 2nd ref. If it has changed, then why should we implement something the public doesn’t want?

    Frit. Frit. Frit.
    I really am not. And the point is a simple one. Of principle. You dont re-run polls just because you lose. If you treat the referendum result as somehow illegitimate then why should any leaver in future accept a poll result they dont agree with?
    Who cares if future votes are reran? If public opinion hasn’t changed then neither will the result.
  • HYUFD said:

    It seems a long time ago that ComRes were predicting a 150 seat landslide for Boris Johnson during the Tory leadership contest.

    Comres swings all over the place and has the highest Labour figures of any pollster, of course any Boris win depends on him committing to deliver Brexit
    Pre-Boris the tories polled circa 10% in the euros.

    Doesnt look like its a failing strategy to me....
This discussion has been closed.