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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sporting Index open their general election seat markets

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited September 11 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sporting Index open their general election seat markets

I really enjoy spread betting, it is fun laced with huge risk which makes it fun, and allows you to open and close positions long before election day, plus in the past it has been very profitable so I’m glad Sporting Index have opened up these markets.

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Comments

  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 1,123
    FTP
    148grss said:


    The idea of a GE was another whip with which to beat MPs. "If you don't support the PM on this issue and the government fails, we will have a GE". Without that whip, there has been a massive increase in disloyalty to the government within the governing party (something to bear in mind with a potential Corbyn premiership).

    Was there much evidence of disloyalty in the Coalition government? Was disloyalty really greater between June 2015 and June 2017 than in the Major Years or the Callaghan Years?

    Many political observers including Thatcher in the Major Years have said that MPs are allowed to be freer when the government has a healthy Majority and a certain amount of disloyalty is tolerated. When the majority is small or negative then every abstention can potentially make a difference, which is why it makes big news.

    Disloyalty to the Johnson government has been a feature of his short term in office, but that has everything to do with Johnson and little to do with the FTPA.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,982
    nearly first
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,337
    Lol 'UKIP seats'
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,791
    Ah, here it is.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,791
    Labour seem a touch on the low side.
  • Lol 'UKIP seats'

    Yes. That - even at a 0.5-1.5 spread - is surely free money?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,335

    Lol 'UKIP seats'

    Yes. That - even at a 0.5-1.5 spread - is surely free money?
    Now 0.2-0.8 someone waded in
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 441
    eristdoof said:

    FTP

    148grss said:


    The idea of a GE was another whip with which to beat MPs. "If you don't support the PM on this issue and the government fails, we will have a GE". Without that whip, there has been a massive increase in disloyalty to the government within the governing party (something to bear in mind with a potential Corbyn premiership).

    Was there much evidence of disloyalty in the Coalition government? Was disloyalty really greater between June 2015 and June 2017 than in the Major Years or the Callaghan Years?

    Many political observers including Thatcher in the Major Years have said that MPs are allowed to be freer when the government has a healthy Majority and a certain amount of disloyalty is tolerated. When the majority is small or negative then every abstention can potentially make a difference, which is why it makes big news.

    Disloyalty to the Johnson government has been a feature of his short term in office, but that has everything to do with Johnson and little to do with the FTPA.
    I would argue that the coalition was a strong government, (although they did lose a vote on war, and they always threaded the needle of legislation to make sure things did happen because of the coalition agreement). But obviously Cameron was aware of his flank, within and without, otherwise he wouldn't have made the promise he did about a Brexit Referendum etc.

    And I think you value disloyalty qualitatively not quantitatively; if you vote against your government knowing it will lead to that government losing a vote, that is different to voting against due to principle when you know the vote will pass anyway.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,988
    Not intending to partake, but interesting to see the starting numbers.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,014
    The Greens are a sell at 2-2.5. There's a really good chance they still end up with only 1 seat and the chance of 3+ seats is pretty small.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 1,123
    Midpoint of one seat for UKIP!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,335
    No wonder Labour don't want an election. 218 to 226 seats.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,601
    Think Lib Dems will be closer to 30 than 40. They'd probably need some surprise London gains to get over that mark.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,074
    At this point I'd be in favour of anything that helped lead to a decision, whatever it was . Unfortunately I doubt a legal view on prorogation helped that, but it was not looking good anyway.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 1,123
    148grss said:

    eristdoof said:

    FTP

    148grss said:


    The idea of a GE was another whip with which to beat MPs. "If you don't support the PM on this issue and the government fails, we will have a GE". Without that whip, there has been a massive increase in disloyalty to the government within the governing party (something to bear in mind with a potential Corbyn premiership).

    Was there much evidence of disloyalty in the Coalition government? Was disloyalty really greater between June 2015 and June 2017 than in the Major Years or the Callaghan Years?

    Many political observers including Thatcher in the Major Years have said that MPs are allowed to be freer when the government has a healthy Majority and a certain amount of disloyalty is tolerated. When the majority is small or negative then every abstention can potentially make a difference, which is why it makes big news.

    Disloyalty to the Johnson government has been a feature of his short term in office, but that has everything to do with Johnson and little to do with the FTPA.
    I would argue that the coalition was a strong government, (although they did lose a vote on war, and they always threaded the needle of legislation to make sure things did happen because of the coalition agreement). But obviously Cameron was aware of his flank, within and without, otherwise he wouldn't have made the promise he did about a Brexit Referendum etc.

    And I think you value disloyalty qualitatively not quantitatively; if you vote against your government knowing it will lead to that government losing a vote, that is different to voting against due to principle when you know the vote will pass anyway.
    Remember John Redwood & Co in the 90's?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,673
    I will join in but not yet. The circumstances of any election are going to be critical this time.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,335
    613/641 the general spread.
  • Middle of each range (compared with 2017, ignoring by-election and defection) implies:

    Con - 306 (-11 or 12 with Speaker)
    Lab - 222 (-40)
    SNP - 47 (+12)
    LD - 41 (+29)
    PC - 4 (n/c)
    Brexit - 4 (+4)
    Green - 2.25 (+1.25)
    UKIP - 1 (+1)

    This is a very risky market. I don't share TSE's confidence in the Lib Dem total although can see them in the 30s, and think Labour are probably a buy (although there's a big downside - it's possible they could be hammered). There is probably enough anti-SNP tactical voting for them to be a sell (although they will make gains). Brexit are a risky sell (the least they can get is zero but it's just possible they could get dozens so downside risk there). UKIP are a non-risky sell - I don't see how they can conceivably win anything - doubt they'll keep a deposit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,335

    I will join in but not yet. The circumstances of any election are going to be critical this time.

    Did you manage to sell UKIP at 0.5 though ?

    Still a sell at 0.2 you think ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,335
    I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,014
    Size of Any Majority is an interesting one. If you're convinced it will be a Hung Parliament that's a good return.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 441
    eristdoof said:

    148grss said:

    eristdoof said:

    FTP

    148grss said:


    The idea of a GE was another whip with which to beat MPs. "If you don't support the PM on this issue and the government fails, we will have a GE". Without that whip, there has been a massive increase in disloyalty to the government within the governing party (something to bear in mind with a potential Corbyn premiership).

    Was there much evidence of disloyalty in the Coalition government? Was disloyalty really greater between June 2015 and June 2017 than in the Major Years or the Callaghan Years?

    Many political observers including Thatcher in the Major Years have said that MPs are allowed to be freer when the government has a healthy Majority and a certain amount of disloyalty is tolerated. When the majority is small or negative then every abstention can potentially make a difference, which is why it makes big news.

    Disloyalty to the Johnson government has been a feature of his short term in office, but that has everything to do with Johnson and little to do with the FTPA.
    I would argue that the coalition was a strong government, (although they did lose a vote on war, and they always threaded the needle of legislation to make sure things did happen because of the coalition agreement). But obviously Cameron was aware of his flank, within and without, otherwise he wouldn't have made the promise he did about a Brexit Referendum etc.

    And I think you value disloyalty qualitatively not quantitatively; if you vote against your government knowing it will lead to that government losing a vote, that is different to voting against due to principle when you know the vote will pass anyway.
    Remember John Redwood & Co in the 90's?
    No, I would have been a wee laddie
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,651

    Size of Any Majority is an interesting one. If you're convinced it will be a Hung Parliament that's a good return.

    Check that that market goes negative.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,335

    Size of Any Majority is an interesting one. If you're convinced it will be a Hung Parliament that's a good return.

    Spare pair of trousers needed if Kantar is correct on that one.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 441
    AndyJS said:

    I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.

    Yeah, we are stuck on one seat unless Remain Alliance is a real thing and it includes Labour
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,988
    Mr. Artist, I'd be wary of the upside risk. If the Lib Dems go into an election with a clear policy whilst Labour has its fence-sitting mess and Corbyn as potential PM, whilst the Conservatives are busy trying to eat their own face and are led by a jester, the yellows could make very significant gains.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,673
    Pulpstar said:

    I will join in but not yet. The circumstances of any election are going to be critical this time.

    Did you manage to sell UKIP at 0.5 though ?

    Still a sell at 0.2 you think ?
    Yes it is.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,335
    tlg86 said:

    Size of Any Majority is an interesting one. If you're convinced it will be a Hung Parliament that's a good return.

    Check that that market goes negative.
    0 stop. No way I could sell that personally.
  • The Greens are a sell at 2-2.5. There's a really good chance they still end up with only 1 seat and the chance of 3+ seats is pretty small.

    That's probably right, although they did apparently top the poll in nine constituencies in June and will probably be given a free run by the Lib Dems in some seats. I do agree 3 is unlikely though.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,014
    AndyJS said:

    I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.

    The Greens were absolutely hammered by tactical voting/Corbyn surge at 2017GE, so they're now 53% behind in Bristol West, and it's still probably one of the more promising targets.

    They've been polling well, but I don't see them gaining a seat anywhere without some major betrayal by the Labour leadership and the local candidates.
  • AndyJS said:

    I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.

    Going to be an odd election. They were savagely squeezed by Corbyn in 2017 and I cannot see that being repeated. Agree I can't really see them gaining more than one, and one is a stretch - as you say, their targets are pretty much all reasonably strong Labour incumbents.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,014
    Pulpstar said:

    Size of Any Majority is an interesting one. If you're convinced it will be a Hung Parliament that's a good return.

    Spare pair of trousers needed if Kantar is correct on that one.
    Yeah - that's why it's interesting!

    If you decide to buy on the back of the HYUFD Prophecy then you're also still covered in the case that Johnson completely implodes and Corbyn exceeds his 2017GE surge.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,335
    Well I've sold UKIP @ 0.2 for £75.

    Hopefully no change in the voting system before the election...
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 441

    AndyJS said:

    I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.

    Going to be an odd election. They were savagely squeezed by Corbyn in 2017 and I cannot see that being repeated. Agree I can't really see them gaining more than one, and one is a stretch - as you say, their targets are pretty much all reasonably strong Labour incumbents.
    Greens will be squeezed again.

    I'm more than happy campaigning for the local elections, but at the GE I will vote LDs as they are the only ones who can beat the Tories in St Albans.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,014

    The Greens are a sell at 2-2.5. There's a really good chance they still end up with only 1 seat and the chance of 3+ seats is pretty small.

    That's probably right, although they did apparently top the poll in nine constituencies in June and will probably be given a free run by the Lib Dems in some seats. I do agree 3 is unlikely though.
    Whether by good fortune or deliberate action Labour have very strong incumbent MPs in the Green target seats who have strong personal appeal to likely Green voters.

    If Kate Hoey was standing for re-election in Bristol West then it would be a different story.
  • 148grss said:

    AndyJS said:

    I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.

    Yeah, we are stuck on one seat unless Remain Alliance is a real thing and it includes Labour
    Even if it included Labour (and it won't) Green target seats are mainly Labour seats and they obviously wouldn't stand down in held seats. Perhaps they'd stand down somewhere like the Isle of Wight, but that's very blue nowadays so a huge ask.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,337
    AndyJS said:

    I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.

    Norwich South is my constituency. It will probably be a labour hold but the LDs held it in 2010 kicking out former HS Charles Clarke, they may gave a resurgence. The Greens will do well but high teens well I think sadly, their pockets are the student rich areas of west earlham and towards the city centre, but they did very well in the council and euro elections. If labour collapse I could see LD gain but not enough for a green gain. Tories will be moribund 15 to 20% as per usual here
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,335
    I expect the UKIP line to move down to 0 - 0.5 in a day or so.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,335

    The Greens are a sell at 2-2.5. There's a really good chance they still end up with only 1 seat and the chance of 3+ seats is pretty small.

    That's probably right, although they did apparently top the poll in nine constituencies in June and will probably be given a free run by the Lib Dems in some seats. I do agree 3 is unlikely though.
    Whether by good fortune or deliberate action Labour have very strong incumbent MPs in the Green target seats who have strong personal appeal to likely Green voters.

    If Kate Hoey was standing for re-election in Bristol West then it would be a different story.
    Thangam Debonnaire is always a teller for remain stuff in the Commons. Lewis is a bit more of a Corbynite but still very remain, didn't vote to trigger A50.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,337
    Roy dropped
  • AndyJS said:

    I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.

    The greens could win multiple seats if there is a formal remain alliance. Otherwise it is 0, 1 or 2, probably 1.

    Getting short of Brexit seats at 3 would be erm....brave. I would be expecting them to trade closer to 10-12. They are only 24 on bf to have most seats (well any other party is effectively them at this stage). If they get most seats they probably have over 200.

    That 4% scenario according to the BF market alone gives them around 8 expected seats.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 2,548

    Roy dropped

    I thought it didn’t start till tomorrow!
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 441

    AndyJS said:

    I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.

    The greens could win multiple seats if there is a formal remain alliance. Otherwise it is 0, 1 or 2, probably 1.

    Getting short of Brexit seats at 3 would be erm....brave. I would be expecting them to trade closer to 10-12. They are only 24 on bf to have most seats (well any other party is effectively them at this stage). If they get most seats they probably have over 200.

    That 4% scenario according to the BF market alone gives them around 8 expected seats.
    I don't really see the BXP making many gains, they are big enough to be a spoiler but not to win seats. I think 6 max, 1-3 more likely.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,337
    Curran and woakes in for Overton, stokes plays as a batsman
  • 148grss said:

    AndyJS said:

    I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.

    The greens could win multiple seats if there is a formal remain alliance. Otherwise it is 0, 1 or 2, probably 1.

    Getting short of Brexit seats at 3 would be erm....brave. I would be expecting them to trade closer to 10-12. They are only 24 on bf to have most seats (well any other party is effectively them at this stage). If they get most seats they probably have over 200.

    That 4% scenario according to the BF market alone gives them around 8 expected seats.
    I don't really see the BXP making many gains, they are big enough to be a spoiler but not to win seats. I think 6 max, 1-3 more likely.
    Yes 0 is most likely and you would win 3 units if that happened. Betfair thinks there is a 4% chance you lose around 200 units though!
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,014

    AndyJS said:

    I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.

    The greens could win multiple seats if there is a formal remain alliance. Otherwise it is 0, 1 or 2, probably 1.

    Getting short of Brexit seats at 3 would be erm....brave. I would be expecting them to trade closer to 10-12. They are only 24 on bf to have most seats (well any other party is effectively them at this stage). If they get most seats they probably have over 200.

    That 4% scenario according to the BF market alone gives them around 8 expected seats.
    Which seats do the Lib Dems stand aside in that the Greens can win from Labour?

    I don't see any.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,988
    Mr. grss, hard to be specific given how turbulent politics is, but I agree with your general view that BP will underperform. Faragian vehicles are not good at FPTP elections. Given how long he's been in politics it's quite odd.

    However, that doesn't mean they'll have a small impact. They could easily let long shot candidates come through the middle in a string of seats.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,733
    edited September 11
    Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,337
    edited September 11

    Mr. grss, hard to be specific given how turbulent politics is, but I agree with your general view that BP will underperform. Faragian vehicles are not good at FPTP elections. Given how long he's been in politics it's quite odd.

    However, that doesn't mean they'll have a small impact. They could easily let long shot candidates come through the middle in a string of seats.

    The Ch4 mrp polling did suggest the Tories are not too far behind in a number of longer shot northern seats due to BXP labour leave hoovering
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 8,306

    AndyJS said:

    I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.

    Norwich South is my constituency. It will probably be a labour hold but the LDs held it in 2010 kicking out former HS Charles Clarke, they may gave a resurgence. The Greens will do well but high teens well I think sadly, their pockets are the student rich areas of west earlham and towards the city centre, but they did very well in the council and euro elections. If labour collapse I could see LD gain but not enough for a green gain. Tories will be moribund 15 to 20% as per usual here
    LDs will do no better than third place in Norwich South. Clive Lewis is very safe.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,337
    justin124 said:

    AndyJS said:

    I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.

    Norwich South is my constituency. It will probably be a labour hold but the LDs held it in 2010 kicking out former HS Charles Clarke, they may gave a resurgence. The Greens will do well but high teens well I think sadly, their pockets are the student rich areas of west earlham and towards the city centre, but they did very well in the council and euro elections. If labour collapse I could see LD gain but not enough for a green gain. Tories will be moribund 15 to 20% as per usual here
    LDs will do no better than third place in Norwich South. Clive Lewis is very safe.
    He should be. If hes not labour ars getting a pounding
  • AndyJS said:

    I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.

    The greens could win multiple seats if there is a formal remain alliance. Otherwise it is 0, 1 or 2, probably 1.

    Getting short of Brexit seats at 3 would be erm....brave. I would be expecting them to trade closer to 10-12. They are only 24 on bf to have most seats (well any other party is effectively them at this stage). If they get most seats they probably have over 200.

    That 4% scenario according to the BF market alone gives them around 8 expected seats.
    Which seats do the Lib Dems stand aside in that the Greens can win from Labour?

    I don't see any.
    Maybe Sheffield Central? They've done very well in locals and Euros, Sheffield Hallam bound to be a battle diverting Labour activists, very large student vote (who largely aren't the same people as 2017).

    I agree it feels unlikely, but possibly the one with the strongest case.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 441

    Mr. grss, hard to be specific given how turbulent politics is, but I agree with your general view that BP will underperform. Faragian vehicles are not good at FPTP elections. Given how long he's been in politics it's quite odd.

    However, that doesn't mean they'll have a small impact. They could easily let long shot candidates come through the middle in a string of seats.

    That's true, why I suggest they will be spoilers not gainers themselves. Difficulty with BXP is where will they be spoilers? If you think BXP are going to do well, you should also assume LDs will do well (because some Tory seats will split between BXP/Con/LD alongside the typical LD vote) and it is hard to know what the BXP effect on Labour will be. Some argue in places like Stoke BXP would make it easier for BXP; Labour voters more likely to jump ship to Farage than Johnson. I am uncertain. I think that the Tory voters in those seats are just as likely to vote Farage, and that the Labour vote would hold more; not only that LDs and Greens in those areas would vote tactically to prevent a Con or BXP win. I think we could have a very lopsided FPTP election, where BXP and Cons do well in overall % but the map looks a lot more LD than people expected.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,335
    edited September 11
    GIN1138 said:

    Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?

    What has Arron Banks got to do with the Brexit Party ? He's as much a part of that as Dominic Cummings - None.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182
    Whenever I play the spreads I get my arse handed to me on a plate, and they close the markets down regularly. Usually when I need them the most.

    I don’t like them, but appreciate others have fun with them.

    Enjoy!
  • Best prices - Outcome next UK GE

    NOM 5/7
    Con Maj 2/1
    Lab Maj 10/1
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,213
    148grss said:

    AndyJS said:

    I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.

    The greens could win multiple seats if there is a formal remain alliance. Otherwise it is 0, 1 or 2, probably 1.

    Getting short of Brexit seats at 3 would be erm....brave. I would be expecting them to trade closer to 10-12. They are only 24 on bf to have most seats (well any other party is effectively them at this stage). If they get most seats they probably have over 200.

    That 4% scenario according to the BF market alone gives them around 8 expected seats.
    I don't really see the BXP making many gains, they are big enough to be a spoiler but not to win seats. I think 6 max, 1-3 more likely.
    If the Tories were to stand down in any seats to give the Brexit Party a clear run, presumably there would be a good chance of Independent Conservative candidates in most of them.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,786
    GIN1138 said:

    Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?

    One to be treasured alongside chaos with Ed Miliband perhaps?
  • Mr. grss, hard to be specific given how turbulent politics is, but I agree with your general view that BP will underperform. Faragian vehicles are not good at FPTP elections. Given how long he's been in politics it's quite odd.

    However, that doesn't mean they'll have a small impact. They could easily let long shot candidates come through the middle in a string of seats.

    The Ch4 mrp polling did suggest the Tories are not too far behind in a number of longer shot northern seats due to BXP labour leave hoovering
    My problem with this, and with Tory strategy of saying "we'll nick a northern Leave seat for every St Albans", is that Labour are historically very good in these areas at strong-arming their reluctant voters from the estates when push comes to shove. The Brexit Party campaign in these areas will, meanwhile, be largely an air war.

    Maybe this is the election where the old certainties like that fall apart. But I'd not bet the farm on it.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,014

    AndyJS said:

    I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.

    The greens could win multiple seats if there is a formal remain alliance. Otherwise it is 0, 1 or 2, probably 1.

    Getting short of Brexit seats at 3 would be erm....brave. I would be expecting them to trade closer to 10-12. They are only 24 on bf to have most seats (well any other party is effectively them at this stage). If they get most seats they probably have over 200.

    That 4% scenario according to the BF market alone gives them around 8 expected seats.
    Which seats do the Lib Dems stand aside in that the Greens can win from Labour?

    I don't see any.
    Maybe Sheffield Central? They've done very well in locals and Euros, Sheffield Hallam bound to be a battle diverting Labour activists, very large student vote (who largely aren't the same people as 2017).

    I agree it feels unlikely, but possibly the one with the strongest case.
    Hmm. An interesting one. The Greens could score 40% of the vote there and come a close second.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?

    I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targeting
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,903
    edited September 11

    Mr. Artist, I'd be wary of the upside risk. If the Lib Dems go into an election with a clear policy whilst Labour has its fence-sitting mess and Corbyn as potential PM, whilst the Conservatives are busy trying to eat their own face and are led by a jester, the yellows could make very significant gains.

    I now like Labour's policy , a deal then a referendum with the deal v remain.
    It is a sensible position for a deeply divided split country.
    It is also better than the Lib Dems revoke or the Brexit Parties leave with no deal.
    Harold Wilson's position in regard to the 1975 referendum, Labour 2019 are copying.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?

    One to be treasured alongside chaos with Ed Miliband perhaps?
    What are they trying to infer? Is it just a smear to make people think of the Russia connections and sympathies or does it have some substance? I guess we will never know.
  • AndyJS said:

    I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.

    The greens could win multiple seats if there is a formal remain alliance. Otherwise it is 0, 1 or 2, probably 1.

    Getting short of Brexit seats at 3 would be erm....brave. I would be expecting them to trade closer to 10-12. They are only 24 on bf to have most seats (well any other party is effectively them at this stage). If they get most seats they probably have over 200.

    That 4% scenario according to the BF market alone gives them around 8 expected seats.
    Which seats do the Lib Dems stand aside in that the Greens can win from Labour?

    I don't see any.
    Maybe Sheffield Central? They've done very well in locals and Euros, Sheffield Hallam bound to be a battle diverting Labour activists, very large student vote (who largely aren't the same people as 2017).

    I agree it feels unlikely, but possibly the one with the strongest case.
    Hmm. An interesting one. The Greens could score 40% of the vote there and come a close second.
    Yes, I think it's a big ask. The thing it has going for it, though, is Labour have a very tough neighbouring defence whereas Greens could potentially flood it. If Labour get the resource allocation wrong, they could be in shocked.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,673
    GIN1138 said:

    Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?

    They can both be right.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,335
    "Game on: federal election gets underway
    Justin Trudeau visits Governor-General Julie Payette at Rideau Hall"

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,795

    GIN1138 said:

    Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?

    I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targeting
    fruitcakes, loons and...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,074

    GIN1138 said:

    Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?

    One to be treasured alongside chaos with Ed Miliband perhaps?
    I think so. A man who has at best flirted with defying the law and been incompetent in following it has few legs to stand on.
  • TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?

    I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targeting
    fruitcakes, loons and...
    And Mr. Howard with cranks and gadflies

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182
    AndyJS said:

    I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.

    I can.

    A lot has changed since 2017GE and the sort of people who love Extinction Rebellion live there and it’s an obvious alternative for left-wing voters who no longer want to go Labour or still don’t quite trust the Lib Dems. Bristol West could go three-way marginal with Greens winning.

    The real longshots for them are Hove, Kemptown and Cambridge, as well as Norwich South and Bristol West.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,074

    GIN1138 said:

    Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?

    I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targeting
    Bxp asked for a lot. I assume this is the counter saying 'no official pact" with a bid and a wink that they need to help each other later.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,335

    GIN1138 said:

    Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?

    I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targeting
    The bit about Banks was completely unneeded - I mean I know he's not well liked but he's not part of The Brexit Party.

    Anyway this is a tactical mistake

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7452187/Boris-Johnson-launches-extraordinary-attack-not-fit-proper-Nigel-Farage.html

    Daily Mail always a good place to gauge Brexit/Tory party sentiment:

    Justin case, United Kingdom, United Kingdom, 2 hours ago
    let's all get behind Nigel. I have Boris a chance he not the man for the job it's a becoming quite obvious. I'm beginning to think hell give away everything we want just to save his own skin


    9:1 like ratio.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,236
    Money to be made on Labour.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,673

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?

    I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targeting
    fruitcakes, loons and...
    And Mr. Howard with cranks and gadflies

    Well, both had abundant evidence to back them up. Anyone for gay donkeys or mining the asteroids?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,626
    Huge variable on this market is the timing of the election - surely it has to be this year - this mad era of self harm can’t continue surely ?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,004
    BREAKING: The Prime Minister just announced that royal proclamations dissolving Parliament and calling for new elections have been issued under the Great Seal. Polling date is 21 October 2019.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,236
    AndyJS said:

    "Game on: federal election gets underway
    Justin Trudeau visits Governor-General Julie Payette at Rideau Hall"

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com

    He should gone for a prorogation for 5 years.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,335

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?

    I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targeting
    fruitcakes, loons and...
    And Mr. Howard with cranks and gadflies

    Well, both had abundant evidence to back them up. Anyone for gay donkeys or mining the asteroids?
    That might be so, but

    Is it really good tactics for the Tories to shoot down their traditionalist Scottish vote and potential brexit switcher Johnny Come Latelies on the same day ?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,733
    AndyJS said:

    "Game on: federal election gets underway
    Justin Trudeau visits Governor-General Julie Payette at Rideau Hall"

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com

    Canada's allowed to have an election! :(
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,335
    edited September 11

    BREAKING: The Prime Minister just announced that royal proclamations dissolving Parliament and calling for new elections have been issued under the Great Seal. Polling date is 21 October 2019.

    The Great seal O_O !?!??!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Is this Canada though /
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,786
    edited September 11
    One added complication is that social media campaigns are becoming ever more sophisticated. This is one reason PMQs consisted of Corbyn asking questions about buses, and May ignored them before having a rant in the sixth question when Corbyn could not reply.

    See this recent Telegraph article about the sorts of things that are now easily possible and already used by Boris. It is not just the Russians!

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2019/09/07/inside-nationbuilder-californian-data-targeting-start-up-delivered/

    ETA: the point for betting purposes is that much of the campaign will be invisible to us. I can see what posters the LibDems have launched but not what they've sent to 100 key voters on the subject of international bridges.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,004
    Pulpstar said:

    BREAKING: The Prime Minister just announced that royal proclamations dissolving Parliament and calling for new elections have been issued under the Great Seal. Polling date is 21 October 2019.

    The Great seal O_O !?!??!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    I'm just going on this tweet:
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182

    AndyJS said:

    I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.

    The greens could win multiple seats if there is a formal remain alliance. Otherwise it is 0, 1 or 2, probably 1.

    Getting short of Brexit seats at 3 would be erm....brave. I would be expecting them to trade closer to 10-12. They are only 24 on bf to have most seats (well any other party is effectively them at this stage). If they get most seats they probably have over 200.

    That 4% scenario according to the BF market alone gives them around 8 expected seats.
    Which seats do the Lib Dems stand aside in that the Greens can win from Labour?

    I don't see any.
    Maybe Sheffield Central? They've done very well in locals and Euros, Sheffield Hallam bound to be a battle diverting Labour activists, very large student vote (who largely aren't the same people as 2017).

    I agree it feels unlikely, but possibly the one with the strongest case.
    Good choice.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,733
    TGOHF said:

    Huge variable on this market is the timing of the election - surely it has to be this year - this mad era of self harm can’t continue surely ?

    I think we could be stuck in this dreadful state for many more months or even years yet...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,988
    Mr. City, negotiating a deal then campaigning against it is certainly a distinct policy.

    On spreads: a few years ago I was going to look at them for F1, and then they stopped the points market, shifting to a rubbish placement market instead. Shame, although maybe it saved me a bundle of cash.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 497

    GIN1138 said:

    Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?

    I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targeting
    What the actual **** fuck is going on? Why rule out a deal so categorically? What if there's an official Remain alliance? ARGH!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,335
    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Huge variable on this market is the timing of the election - surely it has to be this year - this mad era of self harm can’t continue surely ?

    I think we could be stuck in this dreadful state for many more months or even years yet...
    And after that 5 years of Corbyn/Sturgeon Gov't to look forward to.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,954
    AndyJS said:

    No wonder Labour don't want an election. 218 to 226 seats.

    What were they before GE 2017
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,335
    blueblue said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?

    I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targeting
    What the actual **** fuck is going on? Why rule out a deal so categorically? What if there's an official Remain alliance? ARGH!
    It could and should have been done more tactfully. We know Cummings hates Farage - does he hate Banks though ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,377

    Money to be made on Labour.

    300 ups at 3 compares quite well to the betfair outright majority market.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 441

    AndyJS said:

    I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.

    The greens could win multiple seats if there is a formal remain alliance. Otherwise it is 0, 1 or 2, probably 1.

    Getting short of Brexit seats at 3 would be erm....brave. I would be expecting them to trade closer to 10-12. They are only 24 on bf to have most seats (well any other party is effectively them at this stage). If they get most seats they probably have over 200.

    That 4% scenario according to the BF market alone gives them around 8 expected seats.
    Which seats do the Lib Dems stand aside in that the Greens can win from Labour?

    I don't see any.
    Maybe Sheffield Central? They've done very well in locals and Euros, Sheffield Hallam bound to be a battle diverting Labour activists, very large student vote (who largely aren't the same people as 2017).

    I agree it feels unlikely, but possibly the one with the strongest case.
    The other question to ask is: "Is there anywhere that the LDs trust our ground game enough that they would feel confident letting the Greens have a punt over them?" and the likely answer is "No, because the Greens can't organise a piss up in a brewery"... I like being a Green, but we are absolutely terrible at campaigning outside of Local Elections, and our internal organisation is rubbish...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,549
    AndyJS said:

    I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.

    A lot depends for the Greens (and to a lesser degree PC) where LDs stand down as quid pro quo for the recent bye election.

    To a certain degree BXP could be affected too by a Tory stand down.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 698

    AndyJS said:

    I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.

    I can.

    A lot has changed since 2017GE and the sort of people who love Extinction Rebellion live there and it’s an obvious alternative for left-wing voters who no longer want to go Labour or still don’t quite trust the Lib Dems. Bristol West could go three-way marginal with Greens winning.

    The real longshots for them are Hove, Kemptown and Cambridge, as well as Norwich South and Bristol West.
    Lib Dems may give Greens a, clear run in those two seats in return for them not standing in the west and Cambridgeshire.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387

    Pulpstar said:

    BREAKING: The Prime Minister just announced that royal proclamations dissolving Parliament and calling for new elections have been issued under the Great Seal. Polling date is 21 October 2019.

    The Great seal O_O !?!??!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    I'm just going on this tweet:
    Looks a close election, the Liberals and Conservative Party of Canada both in the mid 30s though Trudeau still leads Scheer as preferred PM

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election
  • Pulpstar said:

    blueblue said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?

    I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targeting
    What the actual **** fuck is going on? Why rule out a deal so categorically? What if there's an official Remain alliance? ARGH!
    It could and should have been done more tactfully. We know Cummings hates Farage - does he hate Banks though ?
    Yes
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 497

    Pulpstar said:

    blueblue said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?

    I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targeting
    What the actual **** fuck is going on? Why rule out a deal so categorically? What if there's an official Remain alliance? ARGH!
    It could and should have been done more tactfully. We know Cummings hates Farage - does he hate Banks though ?
    Yes
    And why exactly are the Conservatives letting Cummings commit unforced error after unforced error, strategic disaster after strategic disaster? This is madness of Nick Timothy proportions!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    edited September 11
    GIN1138 said:

    Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?

    The Brexit Party will only do a Deal with the Tories if Boris dumps the Withdrawal Agreement completely, even minus the backstop, which he will not do.

    However they have said they will not stand against the 20 or so Tory MPs who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3 and against further extension past October 31st and are diehard No Dealers
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182
    If 50+ MPs want to agree a deal with Boris he’s home and dry.

    I’ll believe it when I see it. I still don’t think he’s got a quarter of those.
This discussion has been closed.