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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Boris Johnson hopes to win Labour seats at the general elec

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited September 11 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Boris Johnson hopes to win Labour seats at the general election then he needs to improve his approval ratings with GE2017 Labour voters

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  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,292
    First!
  • How many times are the words "may" or "might" used in Yellowhammer?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,125

    How many times are the words "may" or "might" used in Yellowhammer?

    So what? The civil service would describe the Earth suddenly leaving its orbit and heading for a collision with Jupiter as "may have significant impact on the UK and wider European and global economies".
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 295

    How many times are the words "may" or "might" used in Yellowhammer?

    Does it really matter now no deal is effectively dead?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182
    The two minute video on the BBC doesn't paint Trudeau in the most flattering of lights: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49490396
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,767
    edited September 11
    dodrade said:


    Does it really matter now no deal is effectively dead?


    Delayed for 3 months at best. What then? Parliament will continue blocking any deal, and eventually France/whoever are going to put their collective feet down and say no more extensions.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182
    On topic, I agree. He'd lose about 35 seats and gain only 10-15 Labour seats, leaving him down below 300.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    edited September 11
    Boris does not need to win a majority of Labour 2017 voters only some of those who voted Leave and the latest Yougov today suggests he is to some extent with 9% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Tory to only 2% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Labour.

    18% of 2017 Labour voters are now voting LD too and 8% are voting Brexit Party.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/09/11/voting-intention-con-32-lab-23-lib-dem-19-brex-14-
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 648
    TSE, I've looked at the Opinium tables (v006 and v006(2)) and they say Boris is +36/-41 for net -5, and Corbyn is +19/-58 for net -39.

    Your bars are the wrong way round.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,292
    Traditional Labour voters are not going to back the Tories in safe seats in great enough numbers for it to work. Why would a poorer than average person back a political party led by people of privileged background who think tax cuts for the rich at the expense of the poor are a priority.

    Boris Johnson campaigned in his leadership election about cutting taxes for the rich, where does Johnson think the money will come from to pay for this? The poor have the most densely concentrated numbers in safe Labour seats. Tories think the rich do not have enough money and the poor should pay for tax cuts is not a strategy to win the votes of the most disadvantaged in society. Corbyn and the Labour party will run a campaign that motivates Labour voters in safe Labour seats to vote Labour.

    The Tory strategy is mad as it means sacrificing circa 35 seats to LD & SNP. If the Tories do nothing in those write-offs theoretically the Tories could target 70 Labour seats but targeting a seat does not necessarily mean you are in with a chance of winning it. Sometimes increased activity by a hated political party can be counter productive to their chances. Tory targeting will also be curtailed by their diminishing membership whilst Labour , LD and SNP will have a motivated group of canvasses and leaflet delivery operatives.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    edited September 11

    The two minute video on the BBC doesn't paint Trudeau in the most flattering of lights: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49490396

    On current polls Trudeau should still scrape home albeit losing his majority but if the Canadian Conservatives win that is good news for Leavers as their leader Andrew Scheer is pro Brexit and committed to getting straight down to a FTA with the UK
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,411
    dodrade said:

    How many times are the words "may" or "might" used in Yellowhammer?

    Does it really matter now no deal is effectively dead?
    Tick, tock.

    BF market suggests its not totally dead.

    Seems a fair price (5.7) to me.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,626
    dodrade said:

    How many times are the words "may" or "might" used in Yellowhammer?

    Does it really matter now no deal is effectively dead?
    A deal is dead too - this parliament will not vote for Boris to succeed.


  • DruttDrutt Posts: 648
    Drutt said:

    TSE, I've looked at the Opinium tables (v006 and v006(2)) and they say Boris is +36/-41 for net -5, and Corbyn is +19/-58 for net -39.

    Your bars are the wrong way round.

    If you scroll far enough across, the table also has categories for 'diehard remainers' and 'diehard leavers'. Has anyone seen Opinium and HYUFD in the same room together?
  • eekeek Posts: 5,520
    dodrade said:

    How many times are the words "may" or "might" used in Yellowhammer?

    Does it really matter now no deal is effectively dead?
    It doesn’t matter - remember this is a base line impact so everything only might occur.

    The question is does Boris or whoever goes for No Deal feel lucky as Brexit will be blamed for every issue in the next 5 years and whoever implements it will be blamed for those issues.
  • Drutt said:

    TSE, I've looked at the Opinium tables (v006 and v006(2)) and they say Boris is +36/-41 for net -5, and Corbyn is +19/-58 for net -39.

    Your bars are the wrong way round.

    Nope, you're looking at current Labour voters, I'm looking at people who voted Labour in 2017
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 295
    edited September 11
    Andrew said:

    dodrade said:


    Does it really matter now no deal is effectively dead?


    Delayed for 3 months at best. What then? Parliament will continue blocking any deal, and eventually France/whoever are going to put their collective feet down and say no more extensions.
    Wait until the polls turn after October 31st. Boris falls short of a majority and a minority Labour government with Lib Dem/SNP votes pushes through a BINO V Remain Referendum which the latter wins easily (albeit on a much lower turnout than 2016) after a leaver boycott.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 8,158
    TGOHF said:

    dodrade said:

    How many times are the words "may" or "might" used in Yellowhammer?

    Does it really matter now no deal is effectively dead?
    A deal is dead too - this parliament will not vote for Boris to succeed.


    Parliament wants to remain they don't even want a deal
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,566

    Drutt said:

    TSE, I've looked at the Opinium tables (v006 and v006(2)) and they say Boris is +36/-41 for net -5, and Corbyn is +19/-58 for net -39.

    Your bars are the wrong way round.

    Nope, you're looking at current Labour voters, I'm looking at people who voted Labour in 2017
    Your suspicious facility with bar charts backs HYUFD’s contention that you are now a Lib Dem.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 8,158

    On topic, I agree. He'd lose about 35 seats and gain only 10-15 Labour seats, leaving him down below 300.

    Yet Labour will not call an election - whilst proclaiming loudly that they want one.

    Strange old world
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 648

    Drutt said:

    TSE, I've looked at the Opinium tables (v006 and v006(2)) and they say Boris is +36/-41 for net -5, and Corbyn is +19/-58 for net -39.

    Your bars are the wrong way round.

    Nope, you're looking at current Labour voters, I'm looking at people who voted Labour in 2017
    Ah, I see.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    Oxford ranked the best university in the world, ahead of the California Institute of Technology.

    Cambridge and Imperial College London the only other UK universities in the top 10, the other places all taken by US colleges like Harvard and Yale and Stanford.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-49666979
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489

    How many times are the words "may" or "might" used in Yellowhammer?

    We’ve already established you are comfortable gambling with the livelihoods of the poorest in this country.

    Luckily for us, Parliament is not.
  • Drutt said:

    Drutt said:

    TSE, I've looked at the Opinium tables (v006 and v006(2)) and they say Boris is +36/-41 for net -5, and Corbyn is +19/-58 for net -39.

    Your bars are the wrong way round.

    Nope, you're looking at current Labour voters, I'm looking at people who voted Labour in 2017
    Ah, I see.
    I think you were looking at the whole population, actually, not current or 2017 Labour voters. (Would be odd if current Labour voters had a lower opinion of Corbyn than past Labour voters).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,520
    Do you know the biggest problem with the EU? Too many clever people...

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387

    Traditional Labour voters are not going to back the Tories in safe seats in great enough numbers for it to work. Why would a poorer than average person back a political party led by people of privileged background who think tax cuts for the rich at the expense of the poor are a priority.

    Boris Johnson campaigned in his leadership election about cutting taxes for the rich, where does Johnson think the money will come from to pay for this? The poor have the most densely concentrated numbers in safe Labour seats. Tories think the rich do not have enough money and the poor should pay for tax cuts is not a strategy to win the votes of the most disadvantaged in society. Corbyn and the Labour party will run a campaign that motivates Labour voters in safe Labour seats to vote Labour.

    The Tory strategy is mad as it means sacrificing circa 35 seats to LD & SNP. If the Tories do nothing in those write-offs theoretically the Tories could target 70 Labour seats but targeting a seat does not necessarily mean you are in with a chance of winning it. Sometimes increased activity by a hated political party can be counter productive to their chances. Tory targeting will also be curtailed by their diminishing membership whilst Labour , LD and SNP will have a motivated group of canvasses and leaflet delivery operatives.

    Most of the top 50 Tory target seats held by Labour were won by Thatcher, Major or Cameron they are not safe Labour seats but marginals like Lincoln, Vale of Clwyd, High Peak and Keighley and Canterbury.

    Cummings policy of tax cuts for all and more money for the NHS etc as well as delivering Brexit is the only way the Tories will win a majority, they are going to lose seats to the LDs and SNP regardless, as will Corbyn Labour.

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,411
    HYUFD said:

    Oxford ranked the best university in the world, ahead of the California Institute of Technology.

    Cambridge and Imperial College London the only other UK universities in the top 10, the other places all taken by US colleges like Harvard and Yale and Stanford.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-49666979

    Our Lord Blackadder told us that Oxford was a dump, and yet Hull a jewel. Unless you want to be hung by the Baldricks I suggest you amend your ideas!
  • Do you know the biggest problem with the EU? Too many clever people...

    Martin is an obnoxious moron.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387

    Drutt said:

    TSE, I've looked at the Opinium tables (v006 and v006(2)) and they say Boris is +36/-41 for net -5, and Corbyn is +19/-58 for net -39.

    Your bars are the wrong way round.

    Nope, you're looking at current Labour voters, I'm looking at people who voted Labour in 2017
    9% of whom are voting Tory now with Yougov today

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-49666979
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,566
    HYUFD said:

    Oxford ranked the best university in the world, ahead of the California Institute of Technology.

    Cambridge and Imperial College London the only other UK universities in the top 10, the other places all taken by US colleges like Harvard and Yale and Stanford.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-49666979

    That’s just a transparent effort to troll TSE. :smile:
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489
    HYUFD said:

    Traditional Labour voters are not going to back the Tories in safe seats in great enough numbers for it to work. Why would a poorer than average person back a political party led by people of privileged background who think tax cuts for the rich at the expense of the poor are a priority.

    Boris Johnson campaigned in his leadership election about cutting taxes for the rich, where does Johnson think the money will come from to pay for this? The poor have the most densely concentrated numbers in safe Labour seats. Tories think the rich do not have enough money and the poor should pay for tax cuts is not a strategy to win the votes of the most disadvantaged in society. Corbyn and the Labour party will run a campaign that motivates Labour voters in safe Labour seats to vote Labour.

    The Tory strategy is mad as it means sacrificing circa 35 seats to LD & SNP. If the Tories do nothing in those write-offs theoretically the Tories could target 70 Labour seats but targeting a seat does not necessarily mean you are in with a chance of winning it. Sometimes increased activity by a hated political party can be counter productive to their chances. Tory targeting will also be curtailed by their diminishing membership whilst Labour , LD and SNP will have a motivated group of canvasses and leaflet delivery operatives.

    Most of the top 50 Tory target seats held by Labour were won by Thatcher, Major or Cameron they are not safe Labour seats but marginals like Lincoln, Vale of Clwyd, High Peak and Keighley and Canterbury.

    Cummings policy of tax cuts for all and more money for the NHS etc as well as delivering Brexit is the only way the Tories will win a majority, they are going to lose seats to the LDs and SNP regardless, as will Corbyn Labour.

    No such thing as tax cuts for all plus more money for the NHS. The money has to come from somewhere. I thought a Conservative would understand that.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,626
    Floater said:

    TGOHF said:

    dodrade said:

    How many times are the words "may" or "might" used in Yellowhammer?

    Does it really matter now no deal is effectively dead?
    A deal is dead too - this parliament will not vote for Boris to succeed.


    Parliament wants to remain they don't even want a deal
    Parliament might postpone an election until it has revoked- it could be a GNU until ‘22.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    HYUFD said:

    The two minute video on the BBC doesn't paint Trudeau in the most flattering of lights: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49490396

    On current polls Trudeau should still scrape home albeit losing his majority but if the Canadian Conservatives win that is good news for Leavers as their leader Andrew Scheer is pro Brexit and committed to getting straight down to a FTA with the UK
    49.7% chance of a Trudeau majority. 67.1% of most seats. The Grits have favourable boundaries. They win more seats on the same votes, plus having all the minor parties as potential allies.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,538
    edited September 11
    HYUFD said:

    Boris does not need to win a majority of Labour 2017 voters only some of those who voted Leave and the latest Yougov today suggests he is to some extent with 9% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Tory to only 2% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Labour.

    18% of 2017 Labour voters are now voting LD too and 8% are voting Brexit Party.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/09/11/voting-intention-con-32-lab-23-lib-dem-19-brex-14-

    Offset by 9% of 2017 Tory voters now voting LibDem as you say (and 18% of 2017 Lab voters now voting LibDem).

    The composition of the 14% Brexit voters is interesting.
    8% are ex Tories. Presumably Boris is not hard enough for them and would have to offer No Deal in the Tory manifesto.
    3% are ex Lab. Obviously Leavers. Not necessarily No Dealers but can't bring themselves to support the Tories. More likely to revert to Labour than Tory or stick with BXP.
    3% are ex UKIP or NV. These may well not vote or stick with BXP.

    I'm not sure there is much scope for the Tories to squeeze BXP much further. Perhaps 1-2%. Nor more Labour Leavers. They've already got 9% of 2017 Labour voters. Why would more switch now?

    I think the Tories will get 32-33% - perhaps less if there is more of a surge of sensible mainstream Tories lending their votes to the LibDems as Swinson gets more airtime in the debates etc.

    Lab, LibDem and Green will get 46-48% between them. But how effective will tactical voting be?

    My tactical voting model, including the latest polls, gives:
    Con 296
    Lab 236
    LD 48
    SNP 51
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 648

    Drutt said:

    Drutt said:

    TSE, I've looked at the Opinium tables (v006 and v006(2)) and they say Boris is +36/-41 for net -5, and Corbyn is +19/-58 for net -39.

    Your bars are the wrong way round.

    Nope, you're looking at current Labour voters, I'm looking at people who voted Labour in 2017
    Ah, I see.
    I think you were looking at the whole population, actually, not current or 2017 Labour voters. (Would be odd if current Labour voters had a lower opinion of Corbyn than past Labour voters).
    Yes I've got my head round looking at these on my new phone now and realise my mistake. Very high approval for the PM amongst BXP voters, which might explain why he spurned Farage's advances today.
  • Nigelb said:

    Drutt said:

    TSE, I've looked at the Opinium tables (v006 and v006(2)) and they say Boris is +36/-41 for net -5, and Corbyn is +19/-58 for net -39.

    Your bars are the wrong way round.

    Nope, you're looking at current Labour voters, I'm looking at people who voted Labour in 2017
    Your suspicious facility with bar charts backs HYUFD’s contention that you are now a Lib Dem.
    Still my favourite bar chart, and I even used it in a PB thread header.


  • HYUFD said:

    Oxford ranked the best university in the world, ahead of the California Institute of Technology.

    Cambridge and Imperial College London the only other UK universities in the top 10, the other places all taken by US colleges like Harvard and Yale and Stanford.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-49666979

    What’s happened to the Fab Four? Back in the day it was always Oxford, Cambridge, Imperial and UCL.

  • Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oxford ranked the best university in the world, ahead of the California Institute of Technology.

    Cambridge and Imperial College London the only other UK universities in the top 10, the other places all taken by US colleges like Harvard and Yale and Stanford.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-49666979

    Our Lord Blackadder told us that Oxford was a dump, and yet Hull a jewel. Unless you want to be hung by the Baldricks I suggest you amend your ideas!
    No it was Lord Melchett.
  • Do you know the biggest problem with the EU? Too many clever people...

    He's more a 5 pages of A4 man.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,470
    Not to worry the government is compiling a new no deal document .

    I’m sure all the problems will magically drift away , except no one bar the no deal fantasists will believe a word of it .

  • Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oxford ranked the best university in the world, ahead of the California Institute of Technology.

    Cambridge and Imperial College London the only other UK universities in the top 10, the other places all taken by US colleges like Harvard and Yale and Stanford.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-49666979

    That’s just a transparent effort to troll TSE. :smile:
    The Times Higher Education Supplement is stuffed with old Oxonians.

    Sad.
  • There seems to be nothing in Yellowhammer we didn't already know and it's well established these sorts of claims are viewed through voters existing prisms. In terms of public opinion we know support for no deal is slowly drifting down and this won't help. But only by blocking out a day on the Government's grid as journalists love a process story. So for the public Yellowhammer is meh.

    However for elite opinion ?

    " What did you know and when did you know it ? "

    The answer now being " Everything and well in advance ".

    All MPs and Civil Servants have the inevitable Iraq Style Brexit inquiry in mind and post no deal " excess deaths ". You can never directly link X death to Y event but like welfare reform if you make fragile systems even more fragile some people fall off.

    The ' elite ' won't allow no deal as they don't want to be cross examined under oath by the crowdfunded lawyer of a angry grieving relative in 5 years time however complex causality. Yellowhammer focuses this mindset.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,411

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oxford ranked the best university in the world, ahead of the California Institute of Technology.

    Cambridge and Imperial College London the only other UK universities in the top 10, the other places all taken by US colleges like Harvard and Yale and Stanford.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-49666979

    Our Lord Blackadder told us that Oxford was a dump, and yet Hull a jewel. Unless you want to be hung by the Baldricks I suggest you amend your ideas!
    No it was Lord Melchett.
    You are entirely correct, and I stand corrected.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,123
    edited September 11

    Do you know the biggest problem with the EU? Too many clever people...

    Leavers hate magnificent worded legal pieces.

    Lawyers should it take as a compliment.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,292

    Do you know the biggest problem with the EU? Too many clever people...

    Martin is an obnoxious moron.
    He does not know what he is talking about in reference to the EU. For instance he wrongly claimed EU commissioners, in one Channel 4 interview, had control over UK immigration policy. The interviewer simply moved onto another contributor instead of putting him right. The CH4 news anchor should have said the UK entered into an agreement with other EU nations for free movement but no commissioner has control over UK Immigration policy internally (within EU) and specifically for the UK for immigration from non EU countries. Tim Martin was wrong. :wink:
  • Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris does not need to win a majority of Labour 2017 voters only some of those who voted Leave and the latest Yougov today suggests he is to some extent with 9% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Tory to only 2% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Labour.

    18% of 2017 Labour voters are now voting LD too and 8% are voting Brexit Party.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/09/11/voting-intention-con-32-lab-23-lib-dem-19-brex-14-

    Offset by 9% of 2017 Tory voters now voting LibDem as you say (and 18% of 2017 Lab voters now voting LibDem).

    The composition of the 14% Brexit voters is interesting.
    8% are ex Tories. Presumably Boris is not hard enough for them and would have to offer No Deal in the Tory manifesto.
    3% are ex Lab. Obviously Leavers. Not necessarily No Dealers but can't bring themselves to support the Tories. More likely to revert to Labour than Tory or stick with BXP.
    3% are ex UKIP or NV. These may well not vote or stick with BXP.

    I'm not sure there is much scope for the Tories to squeeze BXP much further. Perhaps 1-2%. Nor more Labour Leavers. They've already got 9% of 2017 Labour voters. Why would more switch now?

    I think the Tories will get 32-33% - perhaps less if there is more of a surge of sensible mainstream Tories lending their votes to the LibDems as Swinson gets more airtime in the debates etc.

    Lab, LibDem and Green will get 46-48% between them. But how effective will tactical voting be.

    My tactical voting model, including the latest polls, gives:
    Con 296
    Lab 236
    LD 48
    SNP 51
    Those numbers sound sensible predictions. I think Boris will run a shambolic campaign but as with his leadership contest it wont harm his base. However, it will limit his upside for any voters yet to decide and encourage tactical voting against him.

    It is possible his seat total collapses if the election is after Oct 31, we havent left as seems likely, and his campaign is as shambolic as his government.

    If it goes really well for them getting 340-350 is still possible, but I doubt it.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,337

    Do you know the biggest problem with the EU? Too many clever people...

    Martin is an obnoxious moron.
    He does not know what he is talking about in reference to the EU. For instance he wrongly claimed EU commissioners, in one Channel 4 interview, had control over UK immigration policy. The interviewer simply moved onto another contributor instead of putting him right. The CH4 news anchor should have said the UK entered into an agreement with other EU nations for free movement but no commissioner has control over UK Immigration policy internally (within EU) and specifically for the UK for immigration from non EU countries. Tim Martin was wrong. :wink:
    Yeah but getting pissed up at 9am on a Monday innit
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,095
    HYUFD said:

    Boris does not need to win a majority of Labour 2017 voters only some of those who voted Leave and the latest Yougov today suggests he is to some extent with 9% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Tory to only 2% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Labour.

    18% of 2017 Labour voters are now voting LD too and 8% are voting Brexit Party.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/09/11/voting-intention-con-32-lab-23-lib-dem-19-brex-14-

    Though you are a big fan of Johnson as PM and Tory leader surely you must agree that as a human being he is a cu*t of the first order. Way beyond anything we've ever seen before.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,074

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oxford ranked the best university in the world, ahead of the California Institute of Technology.

    Cambridge and Imperial College London the only other UK universities in the top 10, the other places all taken by US colleges like Harvard and Yale and Stanford.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-49666979

    Our Lord Blackadder told us that Oxford was a dump, and yet Hull a jewel. Unless you want to be hung by the Baldricks I suggest you amend your ideas!
    No it was Lord Melchett.
    No, it was General Sir Anthony Cecil Hogmany Melchett. No Lord, IIRC.
  • kle4 said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oxford ranked the best university in the world, ahead of the California Institute of Technology.

    Cambridge and Imperial College London the only other UK universities in the top 10, the other places all taken by US colleges like Harvard and Yale and Stanford.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-49666979

    Our Lord Blackadder told us that Oxford was a dump, and yet Hull a jewel. Unless you want to be hung by the Baldricks I suggest you amend your ideas!
    No it was Lord Melchett.
    No, it was General Sir Anthony Cecil Hogmany Melchett. No Lord, IIRC.
    You are right.
  • Nigelb said:

    Drutt said:

    TSE, I've looked at the Opinium tables (v006 and v006(2)) and they say Boris is +36/-41 for net -5, and Corbyn is +19/-58 for net -39.

    Your bars are the wrong way round.

    Nope, you're looking at current Labour voters, I'm looking at people who voted Labour in 2017
    Your suspicious facility with bar charts backs HYUFD’s contention that you are now a Lib Dem.
    Still my favourite bar chart, and I even used it in a PB thread header.


    My favourite bar charts: :lol:

  • Nigelb said:

    Drutt said:

    TSE, I've looked at the Opinium tables (v006 and v006(2)) and they say Boris is +36/-41 for net -5, and Corbyn is +19/-58 for net -39.

    Your bars are the wrong way round.

    Nope, you're looking at current Labour voters, I'm looking at people who voted Labour in 2017
    Your suspicious facility with bar charts backs HYUFD’s contention that you are now a Lib Dem.
    Still my favourite bar chart, and I even used it in a PB thread header.


    Yet they all think compromise is a dirty word. Bizarre.
  • Thanks for the piece TSE. However, may I humbly disagree with your comment that "The Cummings and Johnson strategy has been clear for a while, sacrifice Tory seats in Scotland and Remain leaning seats elsewhere whilst winning a lot of Labour held seats that vote Leave." I think it is more than that. In Scottish Tory seats, I think they take the view pro-Unionists will vote Tory to stop the SNP, regardless of their views on Brexit. And I think they also think wealthy remainers in Tory-held SE seats will hold their noses and vote Conservative for fear of Corbyn getting in. It may work.

    Another thing I think the anti-Johnson / Cumming types are getting wrong is that the 48pc Remain bloc is one monolithic bloc. From what I can tell of my social; circle who voted Remain, it is not. You have very ardent pro-Remainers whose vote will be definitely dictated by their views on Brexit but a lot of reluctant Remainers who voted for Remain but whose heart was more pro-Brexit. Those of the latter type just want it out of the way and are quite complimentary of what Johnson has done.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182

    Do you know the biggest problem with the EU? Too many clever people...

    Leavers hate magnificent worded legal pieces.

    Lawyers should it take as a compliment.
    Well, you first have to read it to understand it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182

    Nigelb said:

    Drutt said:

    TSE, I've looked at the Opinium tables (v006 and v006(2)) and they say Boris is +36/-41 for net -5, and Corbyn is +19/-58 for net -39.

    Your bars are the wrong way round.

    Nope, you're looking at current Labour voters, I'm looking at people who voted Labour in 2017
    Your suspicious facility with bar charts backs HYUFD’s contention that you are now a Lib Dem.
    Still my favourite bar chart, and I even used it in a PB thread header.


    If you really want to troll, why don't you add Osbornite coalition to that as well as the fifth bar with the lowest height?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,182
    Floater said:

    On topic, I agree. He'd lose about 35 seats and gain only 10-15 Labour seats, leaving him down below 300.

    Yet Labour will not call an election - whilst proclaiming loudly that they want one.

    Strange old world
    It's possible that both the Conservatives and Labour would be worse off following another GE.

    So there won't be an election.
  • Do you know the biggest problem with the EU? Too many clever people...

    Leavers hate magnificent worded legal pieces.

    Lawyers should it take as a compliment.
    Well, you first have to read it to understand it.
    I actually worked in an opening from a recent PB thread into a work report.

    'Never trust anybody who spells gonorrhoea correctly on the first attempt’ is a maxim that has served me well in life, I might revise that maxim to ‘Never trust anybody who says a no deal Brexit will be fine.’
  • Nigelb said:

    Drutt said:

    TSE, I've looked at the Opinium tables (v006 and v006(2)) and they say Boris is +36/-41 for net -5, and Corbyn is +19/-58 for net -39.

    Your bars are the wrong way round.

    Nope, you're looking at current Labour voters, I'm looking at people who voted Labour in 2017
    Your suspicious facility with bar charts backs HYUFD’s contention that you are now a Lib Dem.
    Still my favourite bar chart, and I even used it in a PB thread header.


    If you really want to troll, why don't you add Osbornite coalition to that as well as the fifth bar with the lowest height?
    I've got that somewhere.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    #SackTomWatson now trending on Twitter
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387

    Thanks for the piece TSE. However, may I humbly disagree with your comment that "The Cummings and Johnson strategy has been clear for a while, sacrifice Tory seats in Scotland and Remain leaning seats elsewhere whilst winning a lot of Labour held seats that vote Leave." I think it is more than that. In Scottish Tory seats, I think they take the view pro-Unionists will vote Tory to stop the SNP, regardless of their views on Brexit. And I think they also think wealthy remainers in Tory-held SE seats will hold their noses and vote Conservative for fear of Corbyn getting in. It may work.

    Another thing I think the anti-Johnson / Cumming types are getting wrong is that the 48pc Remain bloc is one monolithic bloc. From what I can tell of my social; circle who voted Remain, it is not. You have very ardent pro-Remainers whose vote will be definitely dictated by their views on Brexit but a lot of reluctant Remainers who voted for Remain but whose heart was more pro-Brexit. Those of the latter type just want it out of the way and are quite complimentary of what Johnson has done.

    Include me in that latter block
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,377
    edited September 11

    Do you know the biggest problem with the EU? Too many clever people...

    Awful man. Would he be allowed in if we had the Australian Points System? Doubt it very much. But I sense the punters at Weatherspoons see right through him. They're not idiots - they just want cheap booze.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oxford ranked the best university in the world, ahead of the California Institute of Technology.

    Cambridge and Imperial College London the only other UK universities in the top 10, the other places all taken by US colleges like Harvard and Yale and Stanford.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-49666979

    That’s just a transparent effort to troll TSE. :smile:
    Maybe, plus my current partner has an Oxford degree
  • Is it right that today the High Court in London gave its reasons for ruling as it did on the Miller case and effectively it disagreed entirely with the Scottish Court?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387

    HYUFD said:

    Oxford ranked the best university in the world, ahead of the California Institute of Technology.

    Cambridge and Imperial College London the only other UK universities in the top 10, the other places all taken by US colleges like Harvard and Yale and Stanford.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-49666979

    What’s happened to the Fab Four? Back in the day it was always Oxford, Cambridge, Imperial and UCL.

    UCL still 4th in the UK but outside the global top 10
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    edited September 11

    HYUFD said:

    Traditional Labour voters are not going to back the Tories in safe seats in great enough numbers for it to work. Why would a poorer than average person back a political party led by people of privileged background who think tax cuts for the rich at the expense of the poor are a priority.

    Boris Johnson campaigned in his leadership election about cutting taxes for the rich, where does Johnson think the money will come from to pay for this? The poor have the most densely concentrated numbers in safe Labour seats. Tories think the rich do not have enough money and the poor should pay for tax cuts is not a strategy to win the votes of the most disadvantaged in society. Corbyn and the Labour party will run a campaign that motivates Labour voters in safe Labour seats to vote Labour.

    The Tory strategy is mad as it means sacrificing circa 35 seats to LD & SNP. If the Tories do nothing in those write-offs theoretically the Tories could target 70 Labour seats but targeting a seat does not necessarily mean you are in with a chance of winning it. Sometimes increased activity by a hated political party can be counter productive to their chances. Tory targeting will also be curtailed by their diminishing membership whilst Labour , LD and SNP will have a motivated group of canvasses and leaflet delivery operatives.

    Most of the top 50 Tory target seats held by Labour were won by Thatcher, Major or Cameron they are not safe Labour seats but marginals like Lincoln, Vale of Clwyd, High Peak and Keighley and Canterbury.

    Cummings policy of tax cuts for all and more money for the NHS etc as well as delivering Brexit is the only way the Tories will win a majority, they are going to lose seats to the LDs and SNP regardless, as will Corbyn Labour.

    No such thing as tax cuts for all plus more money for the NHS. The money has to come from somewhere. I thought a Conservative would understand that.
    Never heard of the Laffer curve?

    Boris is a Berlusconi style populist, tax cuts and more spending cake for all.

    He will run a campaign precisely the opposite of May's dour tax rises and spending cuts for all campaign in 2017
  • How many times are the words "may" or "might" used in Yellowhammer?

    We’ve already established you are comfortable gambling with the livelihoods of the poorest in this country.

    Luckily for us, Parliament is not.
    Seriously? Depending upon your point of view:

    So Universal Credit didn't gamble with the livelihoods of the poorest in this country?

    So National Minimum Wage didn't gamble with the livelihoods of the poorest in this country?

    So Tax Credits didn't gamble with the livelihoods of the poorest in this country?

    So open borders didn't gamble with the livelihoods of the poorest in this country?

    So education reforms didn't gamble with the livelihoods of the poorest in this country?

    Parliament gambles with the livelihoods of everyone affected whenever it enacts changes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,074
    Scott_P said:
    Can't the Court of Session settle what the effect of their judgement is?
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,193

    Is it right that today the High Court in London gave its reasons for ruling as it did on the Miller case and effectively it disagreed entirely with the Scottish Court?

    Different legal system.

    As I understand it It's entirely possible the Supreme Court could rule the prorogation was unlawful under Scottish law, but lawful under English law. This would be unhelpful.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952

    Drutt said:

    TSE, I've looked at the Opinium tables (v006 and v006(2)) and they say Boris is +36/-41 for net -5, and Corbyn is +19/-58 for net -39.

    Your bars are the wrong way round.

    Nope, you're looking at current Labour voters, I'm looking at people who voted Labour in 2017
    Well then that's ludicrous, as Labour's vote in 2017 was stuffed with angry passionate Remainers who will now decamp to Swinson. So your header is idiotic. Boris is not targeting the williamglenns of this world
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,074
    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    TSE, I've looked at the Opinium tables (v006 and v006(2)) and they say Boris is +36/-41 for net -5, and Corbyn is +19/-58 for net -39.

    Your bars are the wrong way round.

    Nope, you're looking at current Labour voters, I'm looking at people who voted Labour in 2017
    Well then that's ludicrous, as Labour's vote in 2017 was stuffed with angry passionate Remainers who will now decamp to Swinson.
    Even in places where doing so will let a no deal Tory through the middle? I don't believe it.
  • eggegg Posts: 181

    HYUFD said:

    Traditional Labour voters are not going to back the Tories in safe seats in great enough numbers for it to work. Why would a poorer than average person back a political party led by people of privileged background who think tax cuts for the rich at the expense of the poor are a priority.

    Boris Johnson campaigned in his leadership election about cutting taxes for the rich, where does Johnson think the money will come from to pay for this? The poor have the most densely concentrated numbers in safe Labour seats. Tories think the rich do not have enough money and the poor should pay for tax cuts is not a strategy to win the votes of the most disadvantaged in society. Corbyn and the Labour party will run a campaign that motivates Labour voters in safe Labour seats to vote Labour.

    The Tory strategy is mad as it means sacrificing circa 35 seats to LD & SNP. If the Tories do nothing in those write-offs theoretically the Tories could target 70 Labour seats but targeting a seat does not necessarily mean you are in with a chance of winning it. Sometimes increased activity by a hated political party can be counter productive to their chances. Tory targeting will also be curtailed by their diminishing membership whilst Labour , LD and SNP will have a motivated group of canvasses and leaflet delivery operatives.

    Most of the top 50 Tory target seats held by Labour were won by Thatcher, Major or Cameron they are not safe Labour seats but marginals like Lincoln, Vale of Clwyd, High Peak and Keighley and Canterbury.

    Cummings policy of tax cuts for all and more money for the NHS etc as well as delivering Brexit is the only way the Tories will win a majority, they are going to lose seats to the LDs and SNP regardless, as will Corbyn Labour.

    No such thing as tax cuts for all plus more money for the NHS. The money has to come from somewhere. I thought a Conservative would understand that.
    Can you really go back to Thatchers majorities to say those seats in play today? Don’t they change decade on decade?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris does not need to win a majority of Labour 2017 voters only some of those who voted Leave and the latest Yougov today suggests he is to some extent with 9% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Tory to only 2% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Labour.

    18% of 2017 Labour voters are now voting LD too and 8% are voting Brexit Party.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/09/11/voting-intention-con-32-lab-23-lib-dem-19-brex-14-

    Offset by 9% of 2017 Tory voters now voting LibDem as you say (and 18% of 2017 Lab voters now voting LibDem).

    The composition of the 14% Brexit voters is interesting.
    8% are ex Tories. Presumably Boris is not hard enough for them and would have to offer No Deal in the Tory manifesto.
    3% are ex Lab. Obviously Leavers. Not necessarily No Dealers but can't bring themselves to support the Tories. More likely to revert to Labour than Tory or stick with BXP.
    3% are ex UKIP or NV. These may well not vote or stick with BXP.

    I'm not sure there is much scope for the Tories to squeeze BXP much further. Perhaps 1-2%. Nor more Labour Leavers. They've already got 9% of 2017 Labour voters. Why would more switch now?

    I think the Tories will get 32-33% - perhaps less if there is more of a surge of sensible mainstream Tories lending their votes to the LibDems as Swinson gets more airtime in the debates etc.

    Lab, LibDem and Green will get 46-48% between them. But how effective will tactical voting be?

    My tactical voting model, including the latest polls, gives:
    Con 296
    Lab 236
    LD 48
    SNP 51
    The Tories will win most seats almost certainly, the key is can Labour reduce defections to the Tories, LDs and Brexit Party and the Tories to the LDs and Brexit Party
  • Meanwhile the country, including many who voted remain, looks on aghast and with increasing anger at the antics in Parliament and in the courts.

    Do none of you, blathering on about "coups" and proragations and the minutiae of parliamentry convention, understand quite how badly this is playing...? Clearly not.

    Come voting day many of you are in for a rude surprise....
  • kle4 said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oxford ranked the best university in the world, ahead of the California Institute of Technology.

    Cambridge and Imperial College London the only other UK universities in the top 10, the other places all taken by US colleges like Harvard and Yale and Stanford.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-49666979

    Our Lord Blackadder told us that Oxford was a dump, and yet Hull a jewel. Unless you want to be hung by the Baldricks I suggest you amend your ideas!
    No it was Lord Melchett.
    No, it was General Sir Anthony Cecil Hogmany Melchett. No Lord, IIRC.
    Lord Melchett was in Blackadder II.
  • Scott_P said:
    Maugham is an idiot. Not least a multi-millionaire crowd-funding his vexatious actions...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,074

    kle4 said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oxford ranked the best university in the world, ahead of the California Institute of Technology.

    Cambridge and Imperial College London the only other UK universities in the top 10, the other places all taken by US colleges like Harvard and Yale and Stanford.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-49666979

    Our Lord Blackadder told us that Oxford was a dump, and yet Hull a jewel. Unless you want to be hung by the Baldricks I suggest you amend your ideas!
    No it was Lord Melchett.
    No, it was General Sir Anthony Cecil Hogmany Melchett. No Lord, IIRC.
    Lord Melchett was in Blackadder II.
    I am well aware. But the source of the quote was Blackadder Goes Forth.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952
    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    TSE, I've looked at the Opinium tables (v006 and v006(2)) and they say Boris is +36/-41 for net -5, and Corbyn is +19/-58 for net -39.

    Your bars are the wrong way round.

    Nope, you're looking at current Labour voters, I'm looking at people who voted Labour in 2017
    Well then that's ludicrous, as Labour's vote in 2017 was stuffed with angry passionate Remainers who will now decamp to Swinson.
    Even in places where doing so will let a no deal Tory through the middle? I don't believe it.
    You've clearly missed the Labour conference pledges in store for us. Abolish all private schools, hike all taxes, destroy the City, expropriate shares, seize white farms, nationalise pillows, make us all cross dress on Thursdays out of solidarity with bi-curious poets.

    It will not be popular in Surrey. I can see lots of Remainers, intending to vote Labour or Lib Dem, looking at that list, and thinking.... ok, that's worse than No Deal.

  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,235
    edited September 11
    Andrew said:

    dodrade said:


    Does it really matter now no deal is effectively dead?


    Delayed for 3 months at best. What then? Parliament will continue blocking any deal, and eventually France/whoever are going to put their collective feet down and say no more extensions.
    Don't see it. They are happy to string this out until we revoke. No skin off their nose. Anyone who thinks the EU are going to come to Leavers' aid is deluded.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,095

    Meanwhile the country, including many who voted remain, looks on aghast and with increasing anger at the antics in Parliament and in the courts.

    Do none of you, blathering on about "coups" and proragations and the minutiae of parliamentry convention, understand quite how badly this is playing...? Clearly not.

    Come voting day many of you are in for a rude surprise....

    Bullshit! That's not what most people seem to be finding. Remain parties are in the lead now everywhere and increasing. If you live in Hartlepool apologies.
  • "...It is an interesting strategy that may work"

    You have been telling us for days that it wouldn't work.

    Why the change of heart?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,074
    edited September 11
    Scott_P said:
    Maybe I'm wrong, but whether it was deserved or not for defying the whip on an issue deemed to be so critical, once you have kicked people out and happily had your outriders celebrate it, is an olive branch in any way effective? They may have compromised themselves many times to retain the whip, but once done telling them if they are good little boys and girls they can come back on probation does not seem persuasive.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952
    Roger said:

    Meanwhile the country, including many who voted remain, looks on aghast and with increasing anger at the antics in Parliament and in the courts.

    Do none of you, blathering on about "coups" and proragations and the minutiae of parliamentry convention, understand quite how badly this is playing...? Clearly not.

    Come voting day many of you are in for a rude surprise....

    Bullshit! That's not what most people seem to be finding. Remain parties are in the lead now everywhere and increasing. If you live in Hartlepool apologies.
    Twit. Look at the polls. Tories are ten points ahead. Boris is way more popular than Corbz. Your narrative is bogus.
  • Roger said:

    Meanwhile the country, including many who voted remain, looks on aghast and with increasing anger at the antics in Parliament and in the courts.

    Do none of you, blathering on about "coups" and proragations and the minutiae of parliamentry convention, understand quite how badly this is playing...? Clearly not.

    Come voting day many of you are in for a rude surprise....

    Bullshit! That's not what most people seem to be finding. Remain parties are in the lead now everywhere and increasing. If you live in Hartlepool apologies.
    As i said, "come voting day"....

    But stay in the bubble if it makes you happy.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,778

    Meanwhile the country, including many who voted remain, looks on aghast and with increasing anger at the antics in Parliament and in the courts.

    Do none of you, blathering on about "coups" and proragations and the minutiae of parliamentry convention, understand quite how badly this is playing...? Clearly not.

    Come voting day many of you are in for a rude surprise....

    I think one of us at least is in for a rude surprise. :smile:
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,470

    Is it right that today the High Court in London gave its reasons for ruling as it did on the Miller case and effectively it disagreed entirely with the Scottish Court?

    The English decision ruled that the suspension is a purely political matter . They stated though that they believed the PM might have sought to gain political advantage , motivation though can’t be an issue judged by the courts as long as the correct process occurred .

    The Scottish opinion states that because the PM misled the Queen , that this made the decision unlawful .

    I think to be honest even though I’m an ardent Remainer and detest Bozo the first opinion seems pretty sound .

    However I think the key issue that might come up . This Perogative power could allow a PM to effectively shut the Commons for as long as they liked . Unless that power is restricted . Normally our conventions have survived contact with some pretty rubbish governments, but Brexit has now brought the law and convention into conflict .
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952

    Meanwhile the country, including many who voted remain, looks on aghast and with increasing anger at the antics in Parliament and in the courts.

    Do none of you, blathering on about "coups" and proragations and the minutiae of parliamentry convention, understand quite how badly this is playing...? Clearly not.

    Come voting day many of you are in for a rude surprise....

    I think one of us at least is in for a rude surprise. :smile:
    BOTH major parties could be in for a rude surprise, as the Lib Dems surge through the middle, and the Tories leak votes to BXP.

    This, in fact, is horribly plausible. Maybe it will be a good thing.
  • Roger said:

    Meanwhile the country, including many who voted remain, looks on aghast and with increasing anger at the antics in Parliament and in the courts.

    Do none of you, blathering on about "coups" and proragations and the minutiae of parliamentry convention, understand quite how badly this is playing...? Clearly not.

    Come voting day many of you are in for a rude surprise....

    Bullshit! That's not what most people seem to be finding. Remain parties are in the lead now everywhere and increasing. If you live in Hartlepool apologies.
    Who do you count as "remain parties"? Does that include Labour and if so why?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Traditional Labour voters are not going to back the Tories in safe seats in great enough numbers for it to work. Why would a poorer than average person back a political party led by people of privileged background who think tax cuts for the rich at the expense of the poor are a priority.

    Boris Johnson campaigned in his leadership election about cutting taxes for the rich, where does Johnson think the money will come from to pay for this? The poor have the most densely concentrated numbers in safe Labour seats. Tories think the rich do not have enough money and the poor should pay for tax cuts is not a strategy to win the votes of the most disadvantaged in society. Corbyn and the Labour party will run a campaign that motivates Labour voters in safe Labour seats to vote Labour.

    The Tory strategy is mad as it means sacrificing circa 35 seats to LD & SNP. If the Tories do nothing in those write-offs theoretically the Tories could target 70 Labour seats but targeting a seat does not necessarily mean you are in with a chance of winning it. Sometimes increased activity by a hated political party can be counter productive to their chances. Tory targeting will also be curtailed by their diminishing membership whilst Labour , LD and SNP will have a motivated group of canvasses and leaflet delivery operatives.

    Most of the top 50 Tory target seats held by Labour were won by Thatcher, Major or Cameron they are not safe Labour seats but marginals like Lincoln, Vale of Clwyd, High Peak and Keighley and Canterbury.

    Cummings policy of tax cuts for all and more money for the NHS etc as well as delivering Brexit is the only way the Tories will win a majority, they are going to lose seats to the LDs and SNP regardless, as will Corbyn Labour.

    No such thing as tax cuts for all plus more money for the NHS. The money has to come from somewhere. I thought a Conservative would understand that.
    Never heard of the Laffer curve?

    Boris is a Berlusconi style populist, tax cuts and more spending cake for all.

    He will run a campaign precisely the opposite of May's dour tax rises and spending cuts for all campaign in 2017
    Having heard of the Laffer Curve isn’t quite the same as having any idea where on the curve we might be located. Surely you should know that?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 6,337

    Meanwhile the country, including many who voted remain, looks on aghast and with increasing anger at the antics in Parliament and in the courts.

    Do none of you, blathering on about "coups" and proragations and the minutiae of parliamentry convention, understand quite how badly this is playing...? Clearly not.

    Come voting day many of you are in for a rude surprise....

    Some support for this from the callers to LBC who seemed to want the judges strung up.
    Certainly I think many have made their minds up (on either side) and now everything feeds their fears/Hope's etc
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,074
    Roger said:

    Meanwhile the country, including many who voted remain, looks on aghast and with increasing anger at the antics in Parliament and in the courts.

    Do none of you, blathering on about "coups" and proragations and the minutiae of parliamentry convention, understand quite how badly this is playing...? Clearly not.

    Come voting day many of you are in for a rude surprise....

    Remain parties are in the lead now everywhere and increasing.
    Eh? The Tories lead most polls. Personally I don't think they will retain it, at least not sufficiently, in an election post extension and with BXP being self defeating, but while remain has for some time had a lead over leave, in party terms the Tories are doing alright in most of them.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,095
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oxford ranked the best university in the world, ahead of the California Institute of Technology.

    Cambridge and Imperial College London the only other UK universities in the top 10, the other places all taken by US colleges like Harvard and Yale and Stanford.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-49666979

    That’s just a transparent effort to troll TSE. :smile:
    Maybe, plus my current partner has an Oxford degree
    Is he or she a Diehard Remainer?
  • Meanwhile the country, including many who voted remain, looks on aghast and with increasing anger at the antics in Parliament and in the courts.

    Do none of you, blathering on about "coups" and proragations and the minutiae of parliamentry convention, understand quite how badly this is playing...? Clearly not.

    Come voting day many of you are in for a rude surprise....

    I think one of us at least is in for a rude surprise. :smile:
    That clearly must be the case....
  • "...It is an interesting strategy that may work"

    You have been telling us for days that it wouldn't work.

    Why the change of heart?

    Err no change of heart from me, as with the piece by Cyclefree, there's what's actually written and what you think was written.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Traditional Labour voters are not going to back the Tories in safe seats in great enough numbers for it to work. Why would a poorer than average person back a political party led by people of privileged background who think tax cuts for the rich at the expense of the poor are a priority.

    Boris Johnson campaigned in his leadership election about cutting taxes for the rich, where does Johnson think the money will come from to pay for this? The poor have the most densely concentrated numbers in safe Labour seats. Tories think the rich do not have enough money and the poor should pay for tax cuts is not a strategy to win the votes of the most disadvantaged in society. Corbyn and the Labour party will run a campaign that motivates Labour voters in safe Labour seats to vote Labour.

    The Tory strategy is mad as it means sacrificing circa 35 seats to LD & SNP. If the Tories do nothing in those write-offs theoretically the Tories could target 70 Labour seats but targeting a seat does not necessarily mean you are in with a chance of winning it. Sometimes increased activity by a hated political party can be counter productive to their chances. Tory targeting will also be curtailed by their diminishing membership whilst Labour , LD and SNP will have a motivated group of canvasses and leaflet delivery operatives.

    Most of the top 50 Tory target seats held by Labour were won by Thatcher, Major or Cameron they are not safe Labour seats but marginals like Lincoln, Vale of Clwyd, High Peak and Keighley and Canterbury.

    Cummings policy of tax cuts for all and more money for the NHS etc as well as delivering Brexit is the only way the Tories will win a majority, they are going to lose seats to the LDs and SNP regardless, as will Corbyn Labour.

    No such thing as tax cuts for all plus more money for the NHS. The money has to come from somewhere. I thought a Conservative would understand that.
    Never heard of the Laffer curve?

    Boris is a Berlusconi style populist, tax cuts and more spending cake for all.

    He will run a campaign precisely the opposite of May's dour tax rises and spending cuts for all campaign in 2017
    Sounds like the magic money tree to me.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oxford ranked the best university in the world, ahead of the California Institute of Technology.

    Cambridge and Imperial College London the only other UK universities in the top 10, the other places all taken by US colleges like Harvard and Yale and Stanford.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-49666979

    Our Lord Blackadder told us that Oxford was a dump, and yet Hull a jewel. Unless you want to be hung by the Baldricks I suggest you amend your ideas!
    No it was Lord Melchett.
    No, it was General Sir Anthony Cecil Hogmany Melchett. No Lord, IIRC.
    Lord Melchett was in Blackadder II.
    I am well aware. But the source of the quote was Blackadder Goes Forth.
    I am well aware, but you stuck in an "IIRC".
  • Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    TSE, I've looked at the Opinium tables (v006 and v006(2)) and they say Boris is +36/-41 for net -5, and Corbyn is +19/-58 for net -39.

    Your bars are the wrong way round.

    Nope, you're looking at current Labour voters, I'm looking at people who voted Labour in 2017
    Well then that's ludicrous, as Labour's vote in 2017 was stuffed with angry passionate Remainers who will now decamp to Swinson. So your header is idiotic. Boris is not targeting the williamglenns of this world
    I've made it very clear he's targeting Labour Leave voters.
  • Meanwhile the country, including many who voted remain, looks on aghast and with increasing anger at the antics in Parliament and in the courts.

    Do none of you, blathering on about "coups" and proragations and the minutiae of parliamentry convention, understand quite how badly this is playing...? Clearly not.

    Come voting day many of you are in for a rude surprise....

    Some support for this from the callers to LBC who seemed to want the judges strung up.
    Certainly I think many have made their minds up (on either side) and now everything feeds their fears/Hope's etc
    People are absolutely fed to the back teeth with all this. My experience (which i accept is anecdotal, partial and imperfect but which i am pretty convinced is correct) is that this is playing against 'remain'.
This discussion has been closed.