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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Warren maintains her strong betting favorite position for the

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited September 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Warren maintains her strong betting favorite position for the Democratic nomination

With all the focus on the United Kingdom’s political crisis PB’s not covered the 2020 American presidential race for some time. At this stage, of course, this is all about who the Democratic party will choose to take on Donald Trump in November next year.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    edited September 2019
    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.
  • Second? Downtown Fairbanks Alaska
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited September 2019
    KLOBUCHAR clinches the crucial Bill Maher endorsement

    "I'm looking hard at Amy Klobuchar," Maher said. "You know why? Because -- this is not an insult to Amy Klobuchar -- I like you, but they put generic Democrat on the ballot, they win."

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/bill-maher-says-amy-klobuchar-would-be-solid-compromise-choice-for-dems-2020-nomination/ar-AAHh4pL
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    dobbin said:

    Second? Downtown Fairbanks Alaska

    I just looked up your IP, and you are actually in Alaska.

    Enjoy.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    KLOBUCHAR clinches the crucial Bill Maher endorsement


    "I'm looking hard at Amy Klobuchar," Maher said. "You know why? Because -- this is not an insult to Amy Klobuchar -- I like you, but they put generic Democrat on the ballot, they win."

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/bill-maher-says-amy-klobuchar-would-be-solid-compromise-choice-for-dems-2020-nomination/ar-AAHh4pL
    My bet: the Dems choose Warren, but she only gets one term as she's simply too divisive a figure.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    IanB2 said:

    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

    And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

    We get all sorts on pb.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited September 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

    And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

    We get all sorts on pb.
    How many time zones can we have PBers in at once? Nearly 8am in Dubai.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    How is Sioux pronounced?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "The Guardian apologises for David Cameron editorial"

    (£)

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/the-guardian-apologises-david-cameron-editorial/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    AndyJS said:

    How is Sioux pronounced?

    Like the boy’s name.
  • Last week, Ladbrokes cut Hillary Clinton into 20/1 so someone must be backing her. Someone with a crystal ball or who has just woken from a four year coma?
  • rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

    And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

    We get all sorts on pb.
    Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)
  • rcs1000 said:

    KLOBUCHAR clinches the crucial Bill Maher endorsement


    "I'm looking hard at Amy Klobuchar," Maher said. "You know why? Because -- this is not an insult to Amy Klobuchar -- I like you, but they put generic Democrat on the ballot, they win."

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/bill-maher-says-amy-klobuchar-would-be-solid-compromise-choice-for-dems-2020-nomination/ar-AAHh4pL
    My bet: the Dems choose Warren, but she only gets one term as she's simply too divisive a figure.
    And she’d also be the oldest elected to a second term, comfortably beating Reagan.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    All is not exactly well in the Sanders campaign, as he replaces his New Hampshire state director:

    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/15/bernie-sanders-campaign-new-hampshire-1497448
    The shake-up comes as some progressive voters in New Hampshire weigh Sen. Elizabeth Warren as a better option to beat President Donald Trump. At a Democratic convention here just over a week ago, a noticeable number of state delegates who voted for Sanders in 2016 said they had moved their support to Warren. Even members of the Sanders steering committee — his most diehard supporters — said they were eyeing Warren....
  • Nigelb said:

    All is not exactly well in the Sanders campaign, as he replaces his New Hampshire state director:

    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/15/bernie-sanders-campaign-new-hampshire-1497448
    The shake-up comes as some progressive voters in New Hampshire weigh Sen. Elizabeth Warren as a better option to beat President Donald Trump. At a Democratic convention here just over a week ago, a noticeable number of state delegates who voted for Sanders in 2016 said they had moved their support to Warren. Even members of the Sanders steering committee — his most diehard supporters — said they were eyeing Warren....

    Sanders was the protest vote against Hillary Clinton last time, who never really turned her fire on him because she'd already got the nomination sewn up (or stitched up, if you prefer). That represents the ceiling of his support.
  • Background on the Saudi/Yemen/Iran conflict:

    https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1173406486082609152?s=20
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

    And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

    We get all sorts on pb.
    Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)
    Indonesia
  • Speaking of the Middle East, keep an eye on rising oil prices which in the past have been bad for government polling, though this time round might provide political cover for Brexit-related disruption. If continued, it might also improve the economic outlook for Russia and Scotland.
  • I'm a tad shorter on Warren than perhaps I could be at the moment, as I think her odds are too tight and she's a clear lay.

    Otherwise, I'm nicely positive on all except Yang, Clinton, Sanders and Harris.
  • AndyJS said:

    How is Sioux pronounced?

    Isn't it like "Sue" ?
  • KLOBUCHAR clinches the crucial Bill Maher endorsement


    "I'm looking hard at Amy Klobuchar," Maher said. "You know why? Because -- this is not an insult to Amy Klobuchar -- I like you, but they put generic Democrat on the ballot, they win."

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/bill-maher-says-amy-klobuchar-would-be-solid-compromise-choice-for-dems-2020-nomination/ar-AAHh4pL
    You really have a thing for Amy.

  • You really have a thing for Amy.

    Democratic primary voters not so much, sadly
  • Speaking of the Middle East, keep an eye on rising oil prices which in the past have been bad for government polling, though this time round might provide political cover for Brexit-related disruption. If continued, it might also improve the economic outlook for Russia and Scotland.

    I’m sure Brit Nats will come up with some jolly wheeze to explain why a booming oil sector spells disaster for Scotland.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    I'm a tad shorter on Warren than perhaps I could be at the moment, as I think her odds are too tight and she's a clear lay.

    Otherwise, I'm nicely positive on all except Yang, Clinton, Sanders and Harris.

    I wouldn't lose sleep on those. Harris the only one with any real chance of getting the nomination, but that requires her to hang on until (and then win) California. Which doesn't seem very likely.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

    And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

    We get all sorts on pb.
    Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)
    Indonesia
    A little less specific than Sioux Falls!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    OT. More clever positioning from Jo Swinson. She will not prop up a Labour Government while JEREMY CORBYN is leader. A nice new home for Labour voters who don't like Corbyn. (Surely most of them)
  • rcs1000 said:

    I'm a tad shorter on Warren than perhaps I could be at the moment, as I think her odds are too tight and she's a clear lay.

    Otherwise, I'm nicely positive on all except Yang, Clinton, Sanders and Harris.

    I wouldn't lose sleep on those. Harris the only one with any real chance of getting the nomination, but that requires her to hang on until (and then win) California. Which doesn't seem very likely.
    Thanks. Let’s hope so.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

    And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

    We get all sorts on pb.
    Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)
    Indonesia
    A little less specific than Sioux Falls!
    Jakarta, not too far from the National Monument.

    Better?
  • OT UK PM to EU: Make a deal with me, you can totally trust me to honour it, I know I don't even follow my own country's laws but a deal with you, definitely legit

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1173380211401994242
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. JohnL, seems bizarre Clinton's down to 21.

    I'll be ahead if Warren, Harris, or Biden wins. Might have (and forgotten about) a few dollars on very long shot others, but those are the main three.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

    And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

    We get all sorts on pb.
    Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)
    Indonesia
    A little less specific than Sioux Falls!
    Jakarta, not too far from the National Monument.

    Better?
    About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

    I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

    And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

    We get all sorts on pb.
    Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)
    Indonesia
    A little less specific than Sioux Falls!
    Jakarta, not too far from the National Monument.

    Better?
    About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

    I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?
    Hartlepool, of course.
  • DavidL said:
    She’s been quoted on here a couple of times as the Uber-woke right-on millennial- but I suspect Twitter have finally twigged that it’s a parody....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

  • About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

    I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?

    Gonna come clean, I haven't been in Tokyo for a few years, currently fixing up a house in a town called Mashiko, about 100km north.

    https://twitter.com/edmundedgar/status/1092674541980024832?s=19
  • DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    No, Dems by more than 3 million votes next time.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    AndyJS said:
    Pretty disgraceful but these things happen. A couple of people asleep on the job I guess
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891


    About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

    I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?

    Gonna come clean, I haven't been in Tokyo for a few years, currently fixing up a house in a town called Mashiko, about 100km north.

    https://twitter.com/edmundedgar/status/1092674541980024832?s=19
    Good luck!!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
    Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    If he does keep the plates in the air, then 2020 will be the election the Republicans wish they'd never won.

    The more you unbalance the economy, the worse the inevitable hangover.
  • I’m in Budapest of course today.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    edited September 2019

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    No, Dems by more than 3 million votes next time.
    A surplus of Dem votes don't matter, though if enough Rep ones are in the 'right' places for The Donald. After all, 90% Dem in California and New York are only equal to 51% Rep in Alaska and Utah!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
    Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.
    I can see him grabbing Virginia, but other than that, I can't see any other pickups.
  • Is anyone on PB left in the UK, or have they gone already and I am supposed to turn out the lights.
  • Alas, Titania follows Godfrey Elfwick[sp] into the ethereal plane.
  • It’s a (well done) parody account. Hopefully Carlotta knew
  • rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    If he does keep the plates in the air, then 2020 will be the election the Republicans wish they'd never won.

    The more you unbalance the economy, the worse the inevitable hangover.
    So what? The Democrats will sort it out and then the merry-go-round of tax cuts for billionaires and appointing right-wing judges to keep guns safe for unborn babies can start again.
  • It’s a (well done) parody account. Hopefully Carlotta knew
    It appears Twitter may not have....
  • Mr. Walker, I'm still here. And so are the enormo-haddock.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
    Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.
    I can see him grabbing Virginia, but other than that, I can't see any other pickups.
    I think Minnesota is another possibility and just possibly Nevada.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753

    Is anyone on PB left in the UK, or have they gone already and I am supposed to turn out the lights.

    Still here. And not planning on going further than Edinburgh today.
  • DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
    Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.
    Which Clinton states is he going to flip? Justify your answer using the 2018 midterms results
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729

    Is anyone on PB left in the UK, or have they gone already and I am supposed to turn out the lights.

    I'm still in Cannock, or at least I'm fairly sure I am. Grey and miserable this morning.
  • DavidL said:

    Is anyone on PB left in the UK, or have they gone already and I am supposed to turn out the lights.

    Still here. And not planning on going further than Edinburgh today.
    Otoh there is a fair chunk of pb dedicated to removing Edinburgh from the UK.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    OT UK PM to EU: Make a deal with me, you can totally trust me to honour it, I know I don't even follow my own country's laws but a deal with you, definitely legit

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1173380211401994242

    The EU should say sorry we need a trustworthy partner , we don’t do deals with law breakers ! Bozo is becoming unhinged .
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
    Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.
    That’s what makes a betting market.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    ydoethur said:

    Is anyone on PB left in the UK, or have they gone already and I am supposed to turn out the lights.

    I'm still in Cannock, or at least I'm fairly sure I am. Grey and miserable this morning.
    I think some idiot turned out the lights...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729
    edited September 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
    Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.
    I can see him grabbing Virginia.
    Are we talking about the state or are you witnessing an assault on a young lady?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
    Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.
    I can see him grabbing Virginia, but other than that, I can't see any other pickups.
    I think Minnesota is another possibility and just possibly Nevada.
    Trump is something like -25 Approval Rating in Minnesota, and he did dismally in the midterms there.

    Nevada is a possible, but is long term trending Blue.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    If he does keep the plates in the air, then 2020 will be the election the Republicans wish they'd never won.

    The more you unbalance the economy, the worse the inevitable hangover.
    Oh I agree. Trump's economic policies are incredibly short term and are aggravating existing distortions and weaknesses. What the US really needs is a sensible Democrat like Bill Clinton who is willing to address the crazy deficit and do some long term planning on various Federal budget programs. I can't see any republican doing it. They are the party of fiscal irresponsibility in the US.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited September 2019

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

    And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

    We get all sorts on pb.
    Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)
    Indonesia
    A little less specific than Sioux Falls!
    Jakarta, not too far from the National Monument.

    Better?
    About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

    I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?
    Roger is in Didsbury for the next seven days where there is more chance of meeting a Yeti than a Leaver then South of France then Venice for the Biennale.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729

    DavidL said:

    Is anyone on PB left in the UK, or have they gone already and I am supposed to turn out the lights.

    Still here. And not planning on going further than Edinburgh today.
    Otoh there is a fair chunk of pb dedicated to removing Edinburgh from the UK.
    Indeed.

    If they teamed up with the SNP posters think what a force they would be! :smiley:
  • Still in the UK for now but have just booked one last holiday to Italy as an EU citizen, returning 30th October. Need to use that membership one last time, especially as the museums give you a discount if you have an EU passport.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    If he does keep the plates in the air, then 2020 will be the election the Republicans wish they'd never won.

    The more you unbalance the economy, the worse the inevitable hangover.
    I’m more concerned about the planet. Another five years before starting to address climate change is more than dangerous.
  • Roger said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

    And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

    We get all sorts on pb.
    Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)
    Indonesia
    A little less specific than Sioux Falls!
    Jakarta, not too far from the National Monument.

    Better?
    About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

    I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?
    Roger is in Didsbury for the next seven days where there is more chance of meeting a Yeti than a Leaver then South of France then Venice for the Biennale.
    Be careful Roger, there are one or two leavers in Didsbury, mainly around the Wetherspoon's
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    A good line on R5. 'Michael Gove says he's had enough of excerpts'
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    edited September 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
    Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.
    I can see him grabbing Virginia, but other than that, I can't see any other pickups.
    Really? Virginia has been blue since 2008 and is trending away from the GOP in the past few elections when you account for the national picture, and the Republicans did poorly in the midterms there in 2017. Fairfax county is full of federal workers and it continues to grow.

    Worth seeing what happens there in November when VA has its state midterms.

    My personal opinion is that the 2020 election will be won and lost in Pennsylvania. I don’t see Trump holding WI.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited September 2019

    Roger said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

    And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

    We get all sorts on pb.
    Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)
    Indonesia
    A little less specific than Sioux Falls!
    Jakarta, not too far from the National Monument.

    Better?
    About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

    I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?
    Roger is in Didsbury for the next seven days where there is more chance of meeting a Yeti than a Leaver then South of France then Venice for the Biennale.
    Be careful Roger, there are one or two leavers in Didsbury, mainly around the Wetherspoon's
    Is there a Wetherspoon's in Didsbury? I don't think so....I know you cant move for them in Hartlepool
  • isamisam Posts: 40,721
    edited September 2019
    AndyJS said:
    My word.

    If ever there were something to reaffirm my confirmation bias, that’d be it. His son dying is ‘privileged pain’.

    Absolutely typical quite-rich-and-privileged-themselves Guardian think. What an embarrassment they are.



  • About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

    I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?

    Gonna come clean, I haven't been in Tokyo for a few years, currently fixing up a house in a town called Mashiko, about 100km north.

    https://twitter.com/edmundedgar/status/1092674541980024832?s=19
    What’s Japanese for “fixer upper”? That said I once had a Japanese colleague who was doing up his house in Japan and I commiserated with him asking how far over budget and behind schedule it was. He replied, “this is Japan, it is on time and on budget - do they do things differently in the U.K.?

    There’s a great old Cary Grant movie “Mr Blandings Builds his Dream House” - I gave a copy to my architect who has shown it to all subsequent clients!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753

    DavidL said:

    Is anyone on PB left in the UK, or have they gone already and I am supposed to turn out the lights.

    Still here. And not planning on going further than Edinburgh today.
    Otoh there is a fair chunk of pb dedicated to removing Edinburgh from the UK.
    And a fair few of us committed to making sure that never happens.
  • Roger said:

    Roger said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

    And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

    We get all sorts on pb.
    Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)
    Indonesia
    A little less specific than Sioux Falls!
    Jakarta, not too far from the National Monument.

    Better?
    About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

    I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?
    Roger is in Didsbury for the next seven days where there is more chance of meeting a Yeti than a Leaver then South of France then Venice for the Biennale.
    Be careful Roger, there are one or two leavers in Didsbury, mainly around the Wetherspoon's
    Is there a Weatherspoon's in Didsbury? I don't think so....I know you cant move for them in Hartlepool
    Actually, there isn't but maybe avoid The Nelson
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Is anyone on PB left in the UK, or have they gone already and I am supposed to turn out the lights.

    Well I’m only a 2/12 hour flight away
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    ISAM. It is heartless but your insistence on quoting it in full twice unlike Andy who just posted a link makes you no better than the Guardian
  • isamisam Posts: 40,721
    edited September 2019
    Roger said:

    ISAM. It is heartless but your insistence on quoting it in full twice unlike Andy who just posted a link makes you no better than the Guardian

    You are a complete idiot

    Andy’s post was a link behind a paywall that many may not have seen. I want everyone to see it.

    In all honesty, how can you possibly think that me highlighting a newspapers disgusting behaviour is as bad as their disgusting behaviour? By that logic, anyone who references The Sun’s Hillsborough coverage is as bad as them. Behave yourself
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    isam said:
    Pretty unpleasant, but it's clearly not their corporate view, as it was rapidly pulled.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

    And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

    We get all sorts on pb.
    Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)
    Indonesia
    A little less specific than Sioux Falls!
    Jakarta, not too far from the National Monument.

    Better?
    About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

    I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?
    And is Byronic posting from the same place as SeanT once did?
  • Mr. Isam, aye, saw that a short time. Particularly abysmal.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,721
    edited September 2019
    Nigelb said:

    isam said:
    Pretty unpleasant, but it's clearly not their corporate view, as it was rapidly pulled.
    Rapidly pulling it doesn’t mean it’s not their corporate view at all. If it were a politician speaking, we’d say that revealed their real view before they tried to cover up
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,630
    isam said:
    Are we saying it is controversial that the suffering of a rich guy with all the privileges of power is not necessarily the same as the suffering of poor people, and that it is not okay to point out that this rich guy increased the suffering of poor people, despite suffering himself? Is that really a controversy?
  • isam said:

    AndyJS said:
    My word.

    If ever there were something to reaffirm my confirmation bias, that’d be it. His son dying is ‘privileged pain’.

    Absolutely typical quite-rich-and-privileged-themselves Guardian think. What an embarrassment they are.


    It speaks absolute volumes about the Guardian that an editorial as disgusting as that ever got as far as it did.

    As you say, I bet a number of their key staff have very good private health insurance that they make good use of themselves.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
    Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.
    He's losing ground in the mid West rust belt and getting slaughtered in the suburbs. The Dem candidate can be five points less popular than Obama in the Rust Belt and still comfortably beat Trump in the EC.

    My girl "The Big Shiz Liz" keeps gaining in popularity the more people see her. Low info voters don't like her, high info voters do.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
    Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.
    I can see him grabbing Virginia, but other than that, I can't see any other pickups.
    I think Minnesota is another possibility and just possibly Nevada.
    Trump is something like -25 Approval Rating in Minnesota, and he did dismally in the midterms there.

    Nevada is a possible, but is long term trending Blue.
    After a wobble from the Reid machine stopping I think Nevada once again looks mostly safe for the Dems.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:
    An Andrew Doyle creation even less funny that Jonathan Pie. Which is an incredible achievement IMHO.
  • DavidL said:

    Is anyone on PB left in the UK, or have they gone already and I am supposed to turn out the lights.

    Still here. And not planning on going further than Edinburgh today.
    And I'm still here in the Cotswolds, but planning a trip to Hampstead today.

    That reminds me. Must take my passport.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    148grss said:

    isam said:
    Are we saying it is controversial that the suffering of a rich guy with all the privileges of power is not necessarily the same as the suffering of poor people, and that it is not okay to point out that this rich guy increased the suffering of poor people, despite suffering himself? Is that really a controversy?
    Perhaps, but that thought was exceedingly ill expressed by the editorial.

    I don't think there are gradations in the suffering experienced by a parent who loses a child, no matter how rich or poor. The experience of trying to arrange treatment for that child is likely to be considerably different, though.

    Far more starkly, set against all that the experience of a son or daughter trying to arrange care for a parent with dementia. For the rich and the not rich, that is two wholly different worlds.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
    Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.
    He's losing ground in the mid West rust belt and getting slaughtered in the suburbs. The Dem candidate can be five points less popular than Obama in the Rust Belt and still comfortably beat Trump in the EC.

    My girl "The Big Shiz Liz" keeps gaining in popularity the more people see her. Low info voters don't like her, high info voters do.
    The former greatly outnumber the latter, though.
  • Mr. grss, I am unpersuaded that a larger bank account or better career dulls the edge of a child's death. Do you think money makes up for a dead son or daughter?

    If not, I'd be intrigued to hear how you think Cameron's pain was any less than that of any other father in his situation.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,630

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
    Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.
    I can see him grabbing Virginia, but other than that, I can't see any other pickups.
    Really? Virginia has been blue since 2008 and is trending away from the GOP in the past few elections when you account for the national picture, and the Republicans did poorly in the midterms there in 2017. Fairfax county is full of federal workers and it continues to grow.

    Worth seeing what happens there in November when VA has its state midterms.

    My personal opinion is that the 2020 election will be won and lost in Pennsylvania. I don’t see Trump holding WI.
    I think people underestimate the degree that Clinton lost a) because turnout amongst Dem electorate was down, which won't happen again, b) because Trump was viewed as a moderate Republican, which he isn't anymore, c) Clinton was especially disliked by the electorate, which no one else on the Dem side even comes close to.

    I think Warren will end up being the compromise pick for those who don't want Biden and don't want Bernie OR that as things get to the final three, it will be Biden v Warren v Bernie and the Biden may get the plurality of delegates. Warren and Bernie will make a deal so one of them (most likely Warren in my view) will be the nominee but with a compromise platform and a compromise Veep.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    It's cricket watching day at Chelmsford. Think I can safely leave the suntan cream at home!

    Excellent NHS experience yesterday; Audiology appointment within 10 days of referral and I now have hearing aids. The young radio audiologist was very pleasant and efficient, and it's surprising what I'm discovering I've been missing!
    And, yes, the appointment was on a Sunday.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,721
    148grss said:

    isam said:
    Are we saying it is controversial that the suffering of a rich guy with all the privileges of power is not necessarily the same as the suffering of poor people, and that it is not okay to point out that this rich guy increased the suffering of poor people, despite suffering himself? Is that really a controversy?
    I wouldn’t credit them with ‘controversial’. It’s what most normal people would think of as a parody of how a certain kind of affluent middle class, pretentious, clueless professional victim would think.
  • Dominic Raab wants a 'best in class free trade agreement'.

    He's like a dumbed down David Brent that works out.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    isam said:

    Roger said:

    ISAM. It is heartless but your insistence on quoting it in full twice unlike Andy who just posted a link makes you no better than the Guardian

    You are a complete idiot

    Andy’s post was a link behind a paywall that many may not have seen. I want everyone to see it.

    In all honesty, how can you possibly think that me highlighting a newspapers disgusting behaviour is as bad as their disgusting behaviour? By that logic, anyone who references The Sun’s Hillsborough coverage is as bad as them. Behave yourself
    If I had to choose between an Enoch Powell admirer and someone who wrote a single tasteless editorial about privilege I know who I'd find more offensive
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    148grss said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
    Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.
    I can see him grabbing Virginia, but other than that, I can't see any other pickups.
    Really? Virginia has been blue since 2008 and is trending away from the GOP in the past few elections when you account for the national picture, and the Republicans did poorly in the midterms there in 2017. Fairfax county is full of federal workers and it continues to grow.

    Worth seeing what happens there in November when VA has its state midterms.

    My personal opinion is that the 2020 election will be won and lost in Pennsylvania. I don’t see Trump holding WI.
    I think people underestimate the degree that Clinton lost a) because turnout amongst Dem electorate was down, which won't happen again, b) because Trump was viewed as a moderate Republican, which he isn't anymore, c) Clinton was especially disliked by the electorate, which no one else on the Dem side even comes close to.

    I think Warren will end up being the compromise pick for those who don't want Biden and don't want Bernie OR that as things get to the final three, it will be Biden v Warren v Bernie and the Biden may get the plurality of delegates. Warren and Bernie will make a deal so one of them (most likely Warren in my view) will be the nominee but with a compromise platform and a compromise Veep.
    As I keep banging on an on Trump got almost exactly the same vote share as Romany in the Rust Belt but Clinton lost up to 10 percentage points. Trump even got less absolute votes than Romney in Wisconsin.

    For me the only thing stopping me saying Trump is losing the rustbelt guaranteed mortal lock bet the house on it is what the spineless jellyfish called NeverTrumps do this time out. NeverTrumps love all the judicial nominations Trump has done, they may well fall in behind this time out.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited September 2019
    isam said:

    AndyJS said:
    My word.

    If ever there were something to reaffirm my confirmation bias, that’d be it. His son dying is ‘privileged pain’.

    Absolutely typical quite-rich-and-privileged-themselves Guardian think. What an embarrassment they are.


    And you cannot accidentally write this stuff, so the apology is phony as hell - they put in precisely what they intended and meant and the paper saw what was in it. If the point was that rich people experience things differently than poor people why is it necessary to do so by focusing on his dead child?

    It's a case where defenders are undercut, since the paper knows it was unnecessary that's why they've apologised, so people saying it's a fair point have nowhere to go.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited September 2019
    Swinson seems to be gettinga lot of support on radio 5. Poor on radio 4 though.
This discussion has been closed.