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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Rule of Law 1 Cummings/Johnson 0

SystemSystem Posts: 11,003
edited September 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Rule of Law 1 Cummings/Johnson 0

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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Boris should go if he had any honour.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    Jonathan said:

    Boris should go if he had any honour.

    The opposition would vote for an election if they had any balls.
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    Hurrah.
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    Corbyn supports Boris continuing as PM.

    No call to resign (just "consider his position"). Seems no VONC.

    Flunks it.

    (But then seems to call for a GE. But when?)
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    Boris needs to be on the first plane home, PDQ.

    Surely he doesn't make his speech to business leaders in NY now?
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    *kicks newsometer*
    *rues bent needle*
    *calls maintenance company to have it recalibrated*

    Wowzers. When she said at the top it was unanimous, I thought Boris was home and dry.

    To have such a clear-cut, unanimous judgment leaves La Boz absolutely out of wiggle-room.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    FPT:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Gina Miller "This was a victory for Parliamentary Sovereignty"

    Brexiteers will be cheering her on, right?

    Yes, once we've replaced this wretched parliament with one that will deliver Brexit (or stop it, one of the two).
    Why do you hate the will of the people?

    The GE2017 voters voted in the expectation that Parliament would last five years.
    Fine, we'll carry on like this until 2022.

    The result of the election is uncertain, but it is coming whether you like it or not.
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176

    *kicks newsometer*
    *rues bent needle*
    *calls maintenance company to have it recalibrated*

    Wowzers. When she said at the top it was unanimous, I thought Boris was home and dry.

    That was when I knew the Govt had lost. A split SC was the Govt's only hope.
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    ‪To get real for a moment, though: Johnson will not resign. He does not believe the rules apply to him.‬
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    BigIanBigIan Posts: 198
    Well, we do live in interesting times.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,088
    11-0, surely?
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    Absolutely devastating judgment for any party, absolutely devastating if you're the sitting Prime Minister.

    If Boris Johnson had any honour he'd resign, but since he doesn't, he will not.

    Parliament can VONC him if they want. Always had that option.
    What happened to honour and decency? Do we not even pretend anymore that those are requirements for a PM?
    All governments, past, present and in the future can and have lost court cases. That is what the courts are for. Did May resign when she lost the Miller case?

    The court has ruled, the government must implement its ruling. That's separation of powers in a nutshell. Courts shouldn't result in changes of government. That would put far too much undue pressure on court cases which should stand on their own merit.
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    eek said:

    Fenster said:

    Scott_P said:
    The Tories would be destroyed in a GE if they do that.
    In which case the Tories will be destroyed.

    On the other hand how can the Tory Party be led by someone found to have lied to the Queen.
    Her Majesty has been made a fool of, by a clown.
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    Obvious typo in heading. It reads "The Rule of Law 1 Cummings/Johnson 0" but should, of course, say "The Rule of Law 11 Cummings/Johnson 0".
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850

    Boris needs to be on the first plane home, PDQ.

    Surely he doesn't make his speech to business leaders in NY now?

    If he's not going to resign, and Corbyn and Co aren't going to call a VONC, why should he do anything other than just carry on?
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    Ironically this might help Boris Johnson in one aspect.

    All those no deal bills that died with prorogation are no active again.
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    Something to raise everyone's spirits on such a wet and gloomy day... and that's before Spurs lose to Colchester.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,885
    edited September 2019
    Any betting implications?

    Are we still laying 2019 GE?

    Should Tories be 1.41 most seats?
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    Scott_P said:
    What matters is the next election.

    Boris has shown conclusively that he needs a majority in the next election or there will be no Brexit.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Johnson will presumably lose the support of a lot of his MPs. The chances of him keeping his job must be very small indeed
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    Chris said:

    11-0, surely?

    Supreme Court = Man City

    Boris = Watford.

    Where is Ave It when you need him?
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Gina Miller for PM!
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    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Geniuses at Joe Politics on it already!

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/1176431923100618754
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    With the number of MPs saying Johnson should resign it will be hard to avoid a VONC as soon as parliament is recalled.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,214
    And what will the Supreme Court of Public Opinion make of all this? I suspect not very much and the Tory leads will persist. I think HYUFD is spot on that Johnson will never agree to extend beyond October 31st which makes the government's resignation more than probable (but after October 17th).
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    FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    Boris needs to be on the first plane home, PDQ.

    Surely he doesn't make his speech to business leaders in NY now?

    If he's not going to resign, and Corbyn and Co aren't going to call a VONC, why should he do anything other than just carry on?
    Every Prime minister up until now would have resigned in similar circumstances.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Scott_P said:
    What matters is the next election.

    Boris has shown conclusively that he needs a majority in the next election or there will be no Brexit.
    But, as we saw a couple of weeks ago, he doesn't currently have a majority in Parliament to impose his choice of a date for election.
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    Scott_P said:
    Or it:

    Avoided no deal (Boris and Cummings have never been no dealers) and responsibility for delivering no deal (hard work, loads of responsibility and blame)
    Brings in more potential loyalists Tory MPs and less rebels after a GE
    Plays fine with his base, who think he has been stopped from delivering Brexit by 31 Oct

    The prorogation was designed to get an extension - it is the only logical conclusion beyond incredible incompetence.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,788

    Corbyn supports Boris continuing as PM.

    No call to resign (just "consider his position"). Seems no VONC.

    Flunks it.

    (But then seems to call for a GE. But when?)

    The government should resign and say over to you Paliament if you think you can do better.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,925

    Scott_P said:
    What matters is the next election.

    Boris has shown conclusively that he needs a majority in the next election or there will be no Brexit.
    Which is why the other parties won't be rushing for an election - a second referendum on the other hand..
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    'Hi, Dom here. D'you think you guys could whip up another "Enemies of the People" special?'
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    Could any PB lawyers say if the Speaker's decisions might ever be justiciable? I'm thinking of the decision that Queen's Consent was not required for the Benn bill, although I don't know the arguments that led to it.
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    Scott_P said:
    Imagine you're a Conservative MP (not one of the completely nuts ones) and a vote of no confidence is tabled over the Prime Minister leading the Queen into an unlawful prorogation. Enjoy defending that one in Parliament or voting for him.
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    With the number of MPs saying Johnson should resign it will be hard to avoid a VONC as soon as parliament is recalled.

    Corbyn already looking to swerve that, because it would lead to an election.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Classic Dom.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    What matters is the next election.

    Boris has shown conclusively that he needs a majority in the next election or there will be no Brexit.
    Which is why the other parties won't be rushing for an election - a second referendum on the other hand..
    You'll get huge odds on that. People's Vote died at the LIb Dem conference.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,816

    'Hi, Dom here. D'you think you guys could whip up another "Enemies of the People" special?'

    "Dom crawl back under the stone you crawled out of"
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    eekeek Posts: 24,925
    Any chance of PMQs tomorrow?

    Also Business Questions to the Leader of the House is going to be a real popcorn moment.
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    Chances and how long will it take to appoint emergency PM / leader of Tories to fight coming election? Or will Boris attempt to plough on ignoring damage to his authority?
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Jesus. Corbyn even in front of his own cheering supporters on a day like this is fuc*ing hopeless.
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    DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    PM doesn't have the good grace to resign, LOTO doesn't have the balls to VONC him.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,894

    Scott_P said:
    Imagine you're a Conservative MP (not one of the completely nuts ones) and a vote of no confidence is tabled over the Prime Minister leading the Queen into an unlawful prorogation. Enjoy defending that one in Parliament or voting for him.
    Is Corbyn even going to table one though ?
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,880
    So parliament re-convenes tomorrow and the first vote will be for a recess to hold the party conferences. The Labour party conference will be practically over and the LD conference is now history. What are the chances that the recess will be voted down, forcing parliament to sit during the Conservative Conference?
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    Now we get a test of OGH's long-standing theory that Tory MPs don't like Boris. They can get rid of him by Thursday, get nearly all their colleagues and most of their majority back, and he can't stand again.

    If they miss this chance he'll have time to regroup ready to shaft them again.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,925
    Brom said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    What matters is the next election.

    Boris has shown conclusively that he needs a majority in the next election or there will be no Brexit.
    Which is why the other parties won't be rushing for an election - a second referendum on the other hand..
    You'll get huge odds on that. People's Vote died at the LIb Dem conference.
    People's vote is still Labour's preferred policy after yesterday's stitch up.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    All about effect on voting intention now, I'd expect some hit on Tory VI but not too much, opinions on this and Brexit are pretty well set.
    Surely they have to table a VONC? Anything else is tacit confidence in law breaking?!
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited September 2019
    I think the real upshot of today is that Old Liz and her advisers aren't going to just comply with whatever Boris requests in future.

    That's particularly relevant if a VONC is passed. Theoretically, it might've been possible for Boris to refuse to resign, and not recommend Liz appoint anyone else, which would mean an automatic election after two weeks. But now, she'll probably be more inclined to go with Parliament's judgement (if a majority of MPs nominate an alternative PM) than just what Boris says.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,788
    JohnO said:

    And what will the Supreme Court of Public Opinion make of all this? I suspect not very much and the Tory leads will persist. I think HYUFD is spot on that Johnson will never agree to extend beyond October 31st which makes the government's resignation more than probable (but after October 17th).

    Suspect Leave voters will look on and wonder how odd it is that every single legal decision always goes in favour of Remain. ;)
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,894

    Now we get a test of OGH's long-standing theory that Tory MPs don't like Boris. They can get rid of him by Thursday, get nearly all their colleagues and most of their majority back, and he can't stand again.

    If they miss this chance he'll have time to regroup ready to shaft them again.

    Johnson likely doesn't have the confidence of the Commons, I suspect he'll have the confidence of the majority of Tory MPs.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,290

    Absolutely devastating judgment for any party, absolutely devastating if you're the sitting Prime Minister.

    If Boris Johnson had any honour he'd resign, but since he doesn't, he will not.

    Parliament can VONC him if they want. Always had that option.
    What happened to honour and decency? Do we not even pretend anymore that those are requirements for a PM?
    All governments, past, present and in the future can and have lost court cases. That is what the courts are for. Did May resign when she lost the Miller case?

    The court has ruled, the government must implement its ruling. That's separation of powers in a nutshell. Courts shouldn't result in changes of government. That would put far too much undue pressure on court cases which should stand on their own merit.
    For once, we are in absolute agreement.
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    I have updated the title to make it clear that it's the Rule of Law 11 Cummings/Johnson 0
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    Fenman said:

    Boris needs to be on the first plane home, PDQ.

    Surely he doesn't make his speech to business leaders in NY now?

    If he's not going to resign, and Corbyn and Co aren't going to call a VONC, why should he do anything other than just carry on?
    Every Prime minister up until now would have resigned in similar circumstances.
    Did May resign after she lost in the Supreme Court?
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    Nigel Farage: Dominic Cummings must go
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    Danny565 said:

    I think the real upshot of today is that Old Liz and her advisers aren't going to just comply with whatever Boris requests in future.

    That's particularly relevant if a VONC is passed. Theoretically, it might've been possible for Boris to refuse to resign, and not recommend Liz appoint anyone else, which would mean an automatic election after two weeks. But now, she'll probably be more inclined to go with Parliament's judgement (if a majority of MPs nominate an alternative PM) than just what Boris says.

    Yes the idea this government can squat in Downing Street after losing a VONC is for the birds. The bailiffs are on the Queens speed dial.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,816
    eristdoof said:

    So parliament re-convenes tomorrow and the first vote will be for a recess to hold the party conferences. The Labour party conference will be practically over and the LD conference is now history. What are the chances that the recess will be voted down, forcing parliament to sit during the Conservative Conference?

    Tory Conference cancelled. Cummings to pay bill for cancellation.

    Laura says it's a triumph for Boris.
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,880
    Prorogue for Queen's speech is lawful.
    Prorogue now for Queen's speech in 5 weeks time is unlawful.

    The "only a few days" argument is dead because the SC clearly stated that recess is not the same as Prorogue.
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    DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093

    Could any PB lawyers say if the Speaker's decisions might ever be justiciable? I'm thinking of the decision that Queen's Consent was not required for the Benn bill, although I don't know the arguments that led to it.

    I'd always thought it wasn't. But then again I always thought prorogation wasn't justiciable.

    Bercow has the extra protection of art ix bill of rights ( no court can make a call on ops in parliament), but I thought that protected the order in council for the prorogation too.

    So yeah I don't know
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    Who’d’ve thought the PM after May was going to be even worse than her?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,894

    Nigel Farage: Dominic Cummings must go

    Comments below his tweet are not to Farage's advantage.
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    One is shocked that a man a lot of people thought would be shit at being PM is, in fact, shit at being PM.
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    eristdoof said:

    So parliament re-convenes tomorrow and the first vote will be for a recess to hold the party conferences. The Labour party conference will be practically over and the LD conference is now history. What are the chances that the recess will be voted down, forcing parliament to sit during the Conservative Conference?

    Tory Conference cancelled. Cummings to pay bill for cancellation.

    Laura says it's a triumph for Boris.
    Broken record.
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    GIN1138 said:

    JohnO said:

    And what will the Supreme Court of Public Opinion make of all this? I suspect not very much and the Tory leads will persist. I think HYUFD is spot on that Johnson will never agree to extend beyond October 31st which makes the government's resignation more than probable (but after October 17th).

    Suspect Leave voters will look on and wonder how odd it is that every single legal decision always goes in favour of Remain. ;)
    Perhaps it would help if they read more widely and realised that is not true? The ones that go against them, unanimously, are the ones where their leaders break the law?
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    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris should go if he had any honour.

    The opposition would vote for an election if they had any balls.
    Read this very slowly so you understand. No one but an idiot wants a GE before 31st October. Those that do want it are Brexiteers. Brexiteer=idiot.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Who’d’ve thought the PM after May was going to be even worse than her?
    Cringe. You Corbyn lot eh
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    Danny565 said:

    Scott_P said:
    What matters is the next election.

    Boris has shown conclusively that he needs a majority in the next election or there will be no Brexit.
    But, as we saw a couple of weeks ago, he doesn't currently have a majority in Parliament to impose his choice of a date for election.
    Moot. There has to be one eventually and when it comes both Parliament and Courts have shown that if you want Brexit you must vote Tory.
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    One of the side effects of Brexit is to enhance the brilliance of our independent judiciary.

    Over in the States you can pretty much predict how each Justice will vote beforehand, not here.
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    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,302

    Fenman said:

    Boris needs to be on the first plane home, PDQ.

    Surely he doesn't make his speech to business leaders in NY now?

    If he's not going to resign, and Corbyn and Co aren't going to call a VONC, why should he do anything other than just carry on?
    Every Prime minister up until now would have resigned in similar circumstances.
    Did May resign after she lost in the Supreme Court?
    no, but he acts were not considered unlawful, she was told what the state of play was under the law. in this case BJ has been found to have performed acts which are unlawful.
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    eristdoof said:

    So parliament re-convenes tomorrow and the first vote will be for a recess to hold the party conferences. The Labour party conference will be practically over and the LD conference is now history. What are the chances that the recess will be voted down, forcing parliament to sit during the Conservative Conference?

    Tory Conference cancelled. Cummings to pay bill for cancellation.

    Laura says it's a triumph for Boris.
    Laura’s jaiket is on a shoogly peg.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,044
    Roger said:

    Jesus. Corbyn even in front of his own cheering supporters on a day like this is fuc*ing hopeless.

    Boris' great advantage is that he has an opponent who doesn't really respect the rules either. Not because he's 'special' like BoJo but because the rules have been invented by people in power to further their own interests not those of the 'people'.
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris should go if he had any honour.

    The opposition would vote for an election if they had any balls.
    But first Labour and the Lib Dems need to milk this for all it is worth. The Conservative members were conned into voting for a known cheat and incompetent. Let them see what comes of their folly and greed.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    JohnO said:

    And what will the Supreme Court of Public Opinion make of all this? I suspect not very much and the Tory leads will persist. I think HYUFD is spot on that Johnson will never agree to extend beyond October 31st which makes the government's resignation more than probable (but after October 17th).

    For once I think you've got this wrong. Support for your man seems to be slipping fast and he's out of the country. Traditionally a good time for a coup.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,925

    Fenman said:

    Boris needs to be on the first plane home, PDQ.

    Surely he doesn't make his speech to business leaders in NY now?

    If he's not going to resign, and Corbyn and Co aren't going to call a VONC, why should he do anything other than just carry on?
    Every Prime minister up until now would have resigned in similar circumstances.
    Did May resign after she lost in the Supreme Court?
    I don't think May was accused of tricking the Queen into performing an illegal act.

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    Nigel Farage: Dominic Cummings must go

    Farage is nothing if not an opportunist! Brexit party back to 20%?
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    Drutt said:

    PM doesn't have the good grace to resign, LOTO doesn't have the balls to VONC him.

    PMs have always lost court cases. That's why we have courts. I don't remember any resigning due to losing one.
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    I'm wryly amused that all the people who thought that prorogation was a masterstroke when it was announced at the end of August have decided that it was a disaster now.

    Some of us said that it was unbelievably dumb at the time.
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    Scott_P said:
    Cummings will have to go. Otherwise it is Boris who goes.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,044

    One of the side effects of Brexit is to enhance the brilliance of our independent judiciary.

    Over in the States you can pretty much predict how each Justice will vote beforehand, not here.

    True but the worry has to be that we're going to move towards a more USA style system. Hopefully the SC justices are smart enough to see that.
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    This decision throws the impossible situation in Parliament into strong relief. We have a Government that does not have the confidence of the HoC and yet the HoC will not act to put it out of its misery. The key question now is what is Parliament going to do with the time that the SC has given it? Surely the only reasonable response is to VONC the Government and either call an election or try to find another Government which commands the confidence of the HoC (good luck with that!). What is the purpose and where is the dignity of keeping the Government in a straitjacket for another five weeks and just shouting at it?
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    isamisam Posts: 40,885

    I have updated the title to make it clear that it's the Rule of Law 11 Cummings/Johnson 0

    The bigger picture is one of the establishment refusing to carry out the referendum result
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    spudgfsh said:

    Fenman said:

    Boris needs to be on the first plane home, PDQ.

    Surely he doesn't make his speech to business leaders in NY now?

    If he's not going to resign, and Corbyn and Co aren't going to call a VONC, why should he do anything other than just carry on?
    Every Prime minister up until now would have resigned in similar circumstances.
    Did May resign after she lost in the Supreme Court?
    no, but he acts were not considered unlawful, she was told what the state of play was under the law. in this case BJ has been found to have performed acts which are unlawful.
    So implement the courts results. Job done.
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    Who’d’ve thought the PM after May was going to be even worse than her?
    Who'd have thought the PM after Cameron would be worse than him, or for that matter the PM after Brown being worse than him. They all make Blair and Major look like great statesmen. What a state we are in.
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    One is shocked that a man a lot of people thought would be shit at being PM is, in fact, shit at being PM.

    haha. Indeed. As someone who thinks Brexit is bonkers I find Gove repulsive, but at least he would have been effective.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    So, Labour should have the tories firmly on the back foot - so what do they do

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/24/labour-party-conference-vote-brexit-jeremy-corbyn-private-schools/

    Oh boy..... Delegates to walk out of Watson's speech
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,834
    Surely we now get a vote of confidence in the government - Jeremy?
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    One is shocked that a man a lot of people thought would be shit at being PM is, in fact, shit at being PM.

    The big giveaway was that so many Torys thought he’d be shit. They’re the one who knew him best.
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    isam said:

    I have updated the title to make it clear that it's the Rule of Law 11 Cummings/Johnson 0

    The bigger picture is one of the establishment refusing to carry out the referendum result
    Dream on
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    Drutt said:

    PM doesn't have the good grace to resign, LOTO doesn't have the balls to VONC him.

    PMs have always lost court cases. That's why we have courts. I don't remember any resigning due to losing one.
    Can you quote any where the cabinet is not allowed to see the legal advice behind a clearly controversial legal position?
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    Mrs T was out of the country at the crucial point in November 1990, wasn't she?
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,880
    This hearing and ruling also shows that the UK does have sovereignty even as a member of the EU.
This discussion has been closed.