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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » September 2019 Local By-Election Review
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » September 2019 Local By-Election Review
Votes Cast, Share, Change (in votes and seats) Conservatives 9,961 votes (34% unchanged on last time) winning 9 seats (unchanged on last time) Liberal Democrats 8,000 votes (27% +12% on last time) winning 4 seats (+2 seats on last time) Labour 7,914 votes (27% -7% on last time) winning 6 seats (+1 seat on last time) Scottish National Party 1,202 votes (4% unchanged on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) Green Party 1,170 votes (4% -1% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) Independent candidates 655 votes (2% unchanged on last time) winning 0 seats (-2 seats on last time) Local Independent candidates 23 votes (0% unchanged on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) Other Parties 638 votes (2% -2% on last time) winning 0 seats (-1 seat on last time) Conservative lead of 1,961 votes (7%) on a swing of 6% from Con to Lib Dem United Kingdom Independence Party did not field any candidates (-1% on last time)
Comments
Rudy's been all over the place lately, admitting Trump's wrongdoing, then desperately trying to reverse again. I would be nervous if I were Trump that he will put his foot in it.
Mind you, Trump's been trying to get people to claim "executive privilege" when it doesn't apply. Expect some very uncooperative testimonies and potential sanctions from Congress.
Watch this, folks, this is going to be big.
BFE
Stoke 2.48
Nottingham Forrest 3.45
Draw 3.2
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/football/market/1.162505789
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7512509/My-Little-Book-Brexiteers-Want-Stab-notepad-advertised-Amazon.html
I expect outrage in the HoC
Britain Elects
@britainelects
·
Sep 19
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 32%
LDEM: 23%
LAB: 21%
BREX: 14%
GRN: 4%
via
@YouGov
So todays YG poll compared to a week ago is Con +1 Lab +1 Tory Swinson -1LD surge, Con holding, Lab collapse nah dont think so
OK thanks
It's a no from Jo and Anna. No route into number 10 for magic grandpa
I think those underestimating Corbyn again and shouting Lab are in for a tonking based on Polls at least 6 weeks before GE 2019 would learn but obvs. not.
Do we have to compare YouGov/Times with the previous YG/T or can we just go back to the most recent YouGov published poll whether it is commissioned by Times, PV or whoever?
Seems to me that since it is the same firm they must be using the same methods so we need go back only to the most recent poll by them, no matter who the client is. Is that too simplistic?
Put this in context - right now, even on your own admission, Labour's performance is not quite as dismal as Theresa May's.
If they’re so worried about no deal then clearly they’re not that bothered otherwise they’d stomach Corbyn for a few weeks .
The question Swinson needs to answer, if supporting Corbyn for a few weeks is the only way to stop no deal will they , yes or no .
Perhaps you should do a tutorial on how FPTP works!!
Whether it might suit Corbyn not to ask for the extension is another issue . If these MPs are so worried about no deal they should be able to cope with Corbyn for a few weeks .
If it’s good enough for Bozo it should be good enough for Leavers. I expect the deal could get passed but only with a confirmatory vote attached.
“The question of whether or not we would support Corbyn in an emergency government is futile. He does not command the support of the House,” a spokesman said.
So that doesn't actually rule out the LDs supporting Corbyn, it just says parliament as a whole won't support Corbyn, ie TIGs and ex-Cons won't jump.
Presumably if Swinson had actually said the LDs would vote against Corbyn then they'd have quoted that.
Yesterday's Tory win was definitely such a case but it is not always so. You really have to know the local circumstances. Sometimes they are very local indeed.
Which would fly through the commons but will see Johnson sacrificed on the BP alter as I’m sure the honorable member for epping forest will confirm
Tories plus DUP plus IGC = 303
Where are his votes if the LDs abstain?
I think he's all trimmings and no turkey.
So they (and he) might be better off if he detoxifies a bit: Go to visit the queen wearing a nice suit, get photographed in No 10 with the cat, meet foreign leaders in a stable and important-looking way, speak calmly on behalf of the nation if there's a tragedy or death of a famous person etc etc.
If all parties are going to coalesce temporarily around a leader it has to be someone far less divisive. Preferably someone is going to retire at the next GE. If this is going to work Corbyn also needs to put his ego on one side.
Ok add them to his pile, puts him 2 ahead, but Mann and Hoey come off so even Stevens. He might get OMara, Williamson and Vaz, he definitely wont get Lewis, Austin, Elphicke, Hermon, probably not Field. He may get Heidi Allen but not Shuker or Joan Ryan.
Hes probably 4 or 5 behind so needs at least 5 ex Tories and the rest to abstain. And that's if the likes of Luciana Berger dont at best abstain.
He hasn't got the numbers
BJ - forcing the oppo parties into VoNC his government and find someone who can be temp PM
JC - trying to get BJ to write the letter and trying to force JS into accepting him as temp PM
JS - trying to get JC into letting someone else be temp PM
if nobody moves then BJ is forced into choosing whether to write a letter, breaking the law or resigning the government (I'm not sure that he will)
if either JC or JS moves then someone becomes PM.
on the other hand
BJ has indicated that they have some new concrete proposals for a deal and he is hoping that the EU reject them (because the ERG will still reject any deal). if he does get the outline of a deal then anything can happen.
Bone.
Edited for awesome autocorrect failure.
I'm not surprise by PC. In Wales, they are Labour's little helpers. I expect the SNP have also realised they could hardly expect a more sympathetic PM.
The LibDems have to support him, or they get the blame.
From a Labour or Tory perspective, this is win-win to have the LibDems in this stranglehold.
I don't expect them to take their hands off the LibDem throat.
Have a good evening.
Sturgeon is somewhat quarantined by her Scottish holyroodness. Tho I suspect even she is unwise to link with Corbz so blithely, which might explain why she is rowing back tonight.
The Times focus group story makes utterly bleak reading for Labour. They have to dump their vile leader. They won’t.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1177630594949361665
The LibDem position is almost like they have, over the past year, won the political lottery. The Tories and Labour, through their spectacular incompetence, have breathed life into the LibDem corpse.
The LibDem target audience are principally the REMAIN voters, anti-Corbyn Labour voters and soft Tories. The yellow peril are not going to frighten the horses by putting Jezza in Downing Street.
Whatever the merits of Swinson she has so far been a lucky general as is shown by the LibDems continuing strong showing in opinion and actual votes.
Pause.
His penis however is crap
There is no blame to be garnered by refusing to elevate the least respected opposition leader in modern political history to PM.
I forgot Woodcock and Kelvin Hopkins, one each way
Just to pass a vote of confidence he needs a miracle and positive support from a number of people that despise him. And even then its within a vote or two
But given that the Benn act will be sending him 'naked into the conference chamber' ...
Is there a point at which we know the extension isn't happening unless the PM is changed (whether by some legal means or because Boris says go ahead and lock me up)?
Or can Johnson keep his options open until it's too late for MPs to change the PM, so they have to act or not based on a guess about what he's going to do?
There has been little scrutiny of Swinson so far -- let's wait and see.