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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Europe and the Security Schism
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Europe and the Security Schism
After several centuries of slowly drifting apart, the Eastern Roman Empire’s Orthodox Church and what became known as the Roman Catholic Church of Rome split. This difference, due to arguments about doctrine and pre-eminence of Pope and Patriarch, ended up having continental consequences.
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OTOH 1988 was the year of Rick Astley
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1176889601346232321?s=19
I know most Leavers couldn’t care less what the Great Leader does but its game over if you get done for misconduct in public office .
Judging by the historical reluctance of rump EU nations to pay their way defence wise, any EU army will be hugely under resourced even if concentrated on "domestic" matters. How will that suit Poland, the Baltic countries and other former Comecon countries? More protectionism in spades? Fortress Europe? Little chance, I suspect.
I've recently discovered some music from that time. Eurythmics. I thought long gone by late 80s but no. Ms Lennox ... oh if one only had a time machine
I do indeed recall Plato - never knew her real name though.
I did attend the first ever PB pub meet near Liverpool St Station. A long time ago. Autre temps, autre moeurs. I've met some good friends through this august portal, though.
The EU is slowly edging towards being a country (it's not far off) and in order to deal accountably with the budget they will need to have an elected president. this is the step that they've not been able to take but at some point the pressure will become unbearable
https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1177683393481515009
That was an interesting and thought provoking article, but it also raises some interesting questions.
Dura Ace was very negative on the prospect of the UK defending Estonia from Russian invasion. He felt we would walk away from our NATO commitments rather than allow our citizens' blood to be spilled on the streets of Tallinn.
And then there's: President Trump. Who does he personally like and admire more: the gaggle of European leaders of democracies, or autocratic Putin? Who would he be cheering on?
In the normal world, the liberal* democracies of Asian and the West would have a shared interest in staring down hard men. And that forms the basis for institutions like NATO. But if countries like Estonia feel that they are unlikely to be protected by the US or the US in the event the Russian bear came growling, can you blame them for wanting to do something with their European peers?
If I were sitting in Tallinn, I would be terrified by Trump and Putin. And I would also be terrified that the US was turning more insular (and that was a secular trend not a moment of madness), and that that would make the existing structures much less effective in preventing my invasion. I think I'd probably be encouraging the creation of a European army.
Personally, I think the breakdown of NATO is probably inevitable, and will happen before there is any meaningful shared EU military cooperation. And there will be bloodshed somewhere in the East, as either Russia works out a way to get Kaliningrad integrated with the rest of the country, or moves to protect native Russians somewhere in the Baltics.
And the US will end up getting involved in the end - but the cost of its involvement (both to its self and to the world), will be much higher than if it had continued to act as a detterent.
* I use that in the broadest sense, meaning capitalist, puralist, human rights loving, democracies
https://twitter.com/COdendahl/status/1177495526423420928?s=19
For 'balance'
Also states gov says due process has not been followed and timing is nakedly political
Make of that what you will. Let's see if an investigation is begun.. if it goes policey then tittle tattle will have to stay out of the papers
US
Canada
UK (assuming we leave, and remain out of, the EU)
Norway
Turkey
Iceland
Montenegro
Albania
European Union
And possibly only 7 if Montenegro and Albania realise their ambitions to join the EU)
Surely this would be a much less atomised alliance, with fewer institutional divisions, than the present arrangement? Indeed one of the main criticisms of the European members of NATO is that by being split up into individual armies (and navies and air forces), with their separate command structures and procurement strategies, etc, that their combined effectiveness is much less than the money spent (even if that money is also criticised as being insufficient).
The only reason for supposing that an EU army might split NATO would be if leaving NATO were made a condition of forming an EU army by those EU countries that are not in NATO, in particular the declared neutral countries Ireland and Austria.
However, it seems much more likely that either those countries will stand aside from the formation of the EU army (or even that they will drop their neutrality) then that they will cause all the NATO EU countries to leave.
Still, at least there was T'Pau. Who were great. Fight me.
"These bastards aren't playing by my rules..."
Hi Dom
NATO has realistically typically been the USA, UK, sometimes France and then assorted odds and ends . . . with German and Scandinavian and others soil to base the real troops in not them sending the troops. Once the UK leaves the EU, there is little real effective difference between saying France and saying the EU as far as NATO's firepower is concerned and France was always a semi-detached member of NATO anyway.
What does "petition to nob off" mean? "We humbly petition the Prime Minister to nob off?"
The USA has been moving away from the Atlantic and away from Europe as the theatre that interests it. The Cold War was won and the USSR is no longer the threat it was. Putin may be a threat to Estonia but he is no threat to the USA in the way that Stalin was.
The USA is far, far more concerned with the Pacific now. Both Bush Jr and Obama reorientated troops and resources from the Atlantic to the Pacific and Trump is merely continuing that trend. And Trump's successor will continue that trend.
When the Nazis were doing their nihilistic nonsense...they needed plenty of Hancocks..careerist, small minded, dweebs who could do their dirty work,,,,
Like the sudden emergence of Trudeau's "blackface photos" just before the Canadian election, it does seem curious that Boris' alleged offence is being investigated only now?
Still, let's see what & see what emerges.
Be careful of what you wish for.
New, woke thread: They can take on the powers of the PM if they feel like it though.
I'd have missed this step out of life if I'd been God. Feckin waste.
Silver Arrow, which is going on right now in Latvia, simulates a NATO response to Russian invasion. The Canadians are there (along with the Europeans). The US is not.
Yep, that's as clear as mud. Thanks!
[1] the illegal ones at least...