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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tommyknockers. The death of the old Conservative party

Stephen King has produced some dross. One of his worst is a book called Tommyknockers, the premise of which is that an alien spacecraft is found buried in the woods in Maine, and it then starts a creeping possession of the minds and bodies of the local townsfolk, until finally they mutate into the form of the aliens who flew in it. Stephen King himself has stated that he regards this as an awful book.

Read the full story here

tlg86

First.

JBriskinindyref2

A Tories are crap thread. A welcome change from the Brexit is crap threads we normally get from our guest contributors

nichomar

JBriskinindyref2 said:

A Tories are crap thread. A welcome change from the Brexit is crap threads we normally get from our guest contributors

Third

GIN1138

I wonder how big the Tories poll lead will be with Opinium and YouGov tonight?

Recidivist

Third - like the proportion of votes the winning party will probably have at the next general election.

franklyn

Excellent article. Mr Meeks; are you intending to lend your support to Jo Swinson and her team?

JackW

JBriskinindyref2 said:

A Tories are crap thread. A welcome change from the Brexit is crap threads we normally get from our guest contributors

You might contribute a crap thread yourself ?!?

JBriskinindyref2

Pole - Le Clerc
2 - Hamilton (who I got on at 13/1 for pole; value bet loser? [0.4 behind though])
3 - Vettel
4 - Verstappen (5 place grid penalty)
5 - Bottas (who I was somewhat advising to lay yesterday FTW but chickened out of doing it myself)

Albon crashed out in Q1

JBriskinindyref2

JackW said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

A Tories are crap thread. A welcome change from the Brexit is crap threads we normally get from our guest contributors

You might contribute a crap thread yourself ?!?

very good - as I have stated before I think there's a danger that I might actually die of excitement if I got published here.

OldKingCole

And so we move into a completely area of discussion, forgetting all about Grammar Schools and young Miss Thunberg.

I would vote for the current LibDems. I'm after all, habituated to do so. Would I vote, though, for a party with significant input from the likes of David Gauke.

I'd have to think. Might go back to Labour. Or move to Wales and vote PC.

HYUFD

Of course whether under Derby and Disraeli in opposition to corn law reform or under Balfour in opposition to Home Rule and the budgets of Lloyd George the Conservative Party has in the past quite often taken an aggressive and populist line, so it is a myth to say the populist position they are taking on Brexit marks the death of the 'old conservative party' as the Conservative Party has quite often taken a populist line.

Indeed in the late 1840s, 1850s and 1860s or the late 1900s and early 1910s it was the Liberals of Russell and Palmerston (joined by Peelite defectors from the Tories) or Asquith and Lloyd George who presented themselves as the competent party of the urban middle class against the Tories as the party of the rural and landed classes and nationalist populism.

It may be the Liberals are presenting themselves again as the party for middle class professionals and those who want 'competent' government against the populism of the Boris Tories or Corbyn Labour and already a few anti Brexit Cameroon Tories like Lee and Wollaston (the modern day heirs to the Peelites with Cameron or May as Peel and Boris as Derby or Disraeli?) and anti Corbyn Labour MPs like Umunna and Berger have joined them on that basis

Recidivist

HYUFD said:

Of course whether under Derby and Disraeli in opposition to corn law reform or under Balfour in opposition to Home Rule and the budgets of Lloyd George the Conservative Party has in the past quite often taken an aggressive and populist line, so it is a myth to say the populist position they are taking on Brexit marks the death of the 'old conservative party' as the Conservative Party has quite often taken a populist line.

Indeed in the late 1840s, 1850s and 1860s or the late 1900s and early 1910s it was the Liberals of Russell and Palmerston (joined by Peelite defectors from the Tories) or Asquith and Lloyd George who presented themselves as the competent party of the urban middle class against the Tories as the party of the rural and landed classes and nationalist populism.

It may be the Liberals are presenting themselves again as the party for middle class professionals and those who want 'competent' government against the populism of the Boris Tories or Corbyn Labour and already a few anti Brexit Tories like Lee and Wollaston and anti Corbyn Labour MPs like Umunna and Berger have joined them on that basis

Welcome back! It's the old HUFYD who used to make interesting points backed up with relevant facts.

Beibheirli_C

Unless you are a raving fanatic on either the right or the left, the Lib Dems are the only ones left to vote for. The others are either vile or barking mad.

It looks like i will have to vote LD

JackW

JBriskinindyref2 said:

JackW said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

A Tories are crap thread. A welcome change from the Brexit is crap threads we normally get from our guest contributors

You might contribute a crap thread yourself ?!?

very good - as I have stated before I think there's a danger that I might actually die of excitement if I got published here.

My dear fellow take it from someone of somewhat advanced years that there are better ways to "die of excitement" than to be in the very vitals of Mike Smithson's mighty organ.

And with that considerable revelation I must away.

JBriskinindyref2

OldKingCole said:

And so we move into a completely area of discussion, forgetting all about Grammar Schools and young Miss Thunberg.

I would vote for the current LibDems. I'm after all, habituated to do so. Would I vote, though, for a party with significant input from the likes of David Gauke.

I'd have to think. Might go back to Labour. Or move to Wales and vote PC.

I'm also a bit stumped as to vote for. I want to go Anti-separatist but the main challengers are Labour who are most likely to collaborate (as well as other minus points such as being a bit silly with finances, but also pluses such as banning private schools and a 32 hour working week). Very tempted to go Tory as although I'm not quite at the official tory voting age Ms Brisk is practically there and we're a team.

DavidL

For understandable reasons this thread header looks through the polarised prism of Brexit. But nothing lasts forever, even if it feels like it. If we can move past this I think that we will find Boris a fairly centrist and liberal PM, more inclined to spend than the average Tory, socially liberal and pretty content with the status quo. Such a party will welcome back the likes of David Herdson, TSE, Richard and possibly even David Gauke

kinabalu

The Tories certainly have changed.

I have long argued that there is a gap in the market for a hardcore right wing nationalist party that is genuinely nasty rather being quaint.

No longer.

HYUFD

Recidivist said:

HYUFD said:

Of course whether under Derby and Disraeli in opposition to corn law reform or under Balfour in opposition to Home Rule and the budgets of Lloyd George the Conservative Party has in the past quite often taken an aggressive and populist line, so it is a myth to say the populist position they are taking on Brexit marks the death of the 'old conservative party' as the Conservative Party has quite often taken a populist line.

Indeed in the late 1840s, 1850s and 1860s or the late 1900s and early 1910s it was the Liberals of Russell and Palmerston (joined by Peelite defectors from the Tories) or Asquith and Lloyd George who presented themselves as the competent party of the urban middle class against the Tories as the party of the rural and landed classes and nationalist populism.

It may be the Liberals are presenting themselves again as the party for middle class professionals and those who want 'competent' government against the populism of the Boris Tories or Corbyn Labour and already a few anti Brexit Tories like Lee and Wollaston and anti Corbyn Labour MPs like Umunna and Berger have joined them on that basis

Welcome back! It's the old HUFYD who used to make interesting points backed up with relevant facts.

Thankyou, I will always be a Tory but am still capable of putting my historian's and analytical hat on too

JBriskinindyref2

Beibheirli_C said:

Unless you are a raving fanatic on either the right or the left, the Lib Dems are the only ones left to vote for. The others are either vile or barking mad.

It looks like i will have to vote LD

Have you thought about contributing a thread header ?

Stark_Dawning

It's amazing how Dom has been able to transform Brexitism into Borisism. Nowadays a desire to leave the EU is secondary (if that); it is one's commitment to the furtherance of the career of Boris Johnson by which one is now measured. Even Nigel Farage gets berated for criticizing Boris's constitutional crimes. That has nothing to do with Brexit, but the fact that Nigel dares question the Boris myth means he becomes ostracized. Scary times.

HYUFD

DavidL said:

For understandable reasons this thread header looks through the polarised prism of Brexit. But nothing lasts forever, even if it feels like it. If we can move past this I think that we will find Boris a fairly centrist and liberal PM, more inclined to spend than the average Tory, socially liberal and pretty content with the status quo. Such a party will welcome back the likes of David Herdson, TSE, Richard and possibly even David Gauke

To some extent but he will still likely be too populist for many who will make a permanent home in the Liberal Democrats, even if Boris does win a majority and pass the Withdrawal Agreement with a NI only backstop

DavidL

As for the Lib Dem’s if Brexit is done and dusted by the next election they better start thinking about how they are going to be heard.

Theuniondivvie

HYUFD said:

Recidivist said:

HYUFD said:

Of course whether under Derby and Disraeli in opposition to corn law reform or under Balfour in opposition to Home Rule and the budgets of Lloyd George the Conservative Party has in the past quite often taken an aggressive and populist line, so it is a myth to say the populist position they are taking on Brexit marks the death of the 'old conservative party' as the Conservative Party has quite often taken a populist line.

Indeed in the late 1840s, 1850s and 1860s or the late 1900s and early 1910s it was the Liberals of Russell and Palmerston (joined by Peelite defectors from the Tories) or Asquith and Lloyd George who presented themselves as the competent party of the urban middle class against the Tories as the party of the rural and landed classes and nationalist populism.

It may be the Liberals are presenting themselves again as the party for middle class professionals and those who want 'competent' government against the populism of the Boris Tories or Corbyn Labour and already a few anti Brexit Tories like Lee and Wollaston and anti Corbyn Labour MPs like Umunna and Berger have joined them on that basis

Welcome back! It's the old HUFYD who used to make interesting points backed up with relevant facts.

Thankyou, I will always be a Tory but am still capable of putting my historian's and analytical hat on too

Not made of tin foil I trust?

dyingswan

I am completely indifferent to whether the PM signs the Surrender Act letter or not.. The Court can sign it for him, if necessary. But I would like to know before any VONC whether Jeremy Corbyn will be writing the letters of last resort to the commanding officers of the ballistic missile submarines. On a different point did my eyes deceive me or is Jared Omara MP still voting in this Undead parliament?

DavidL

Beibheirli_C said:

Unless you are a raving fanatic on either the right or the left, the Lib Dems are the only ones left to vote for. The others are either vile or barking mad.

It looks like i will have to vote LD

You are sure you qualify?

Flanner

The LibDems would be mad to think they stand at a crossroads.

Right now, both large parties have been taken over by totalitarians, and a huge proportion of the population despise both the policies of those totalitarians and the methods they adopt.

The LibDem Constitution starts off with a Preamble (https://www.libdems.org.uk/constitution) that's pretty much a summary of everything those totalitarians most despise. We've never been in a position where debate is so visibly moving from a big policy issue (Brexit) to a big method of government issue (totalitarianism vs liberalism) and no-one really knows how public opinion breaks. Talk to my Cotswold neighbours and 95% are now, or are contemplating secretly voting, LibDem - mainly on governance grounds, rather than policy issues. But listen to the Doncaster or Stoke voxpops on the Beeb and it's clear that huge swathes of previously apparent small-l liberals now tolerate totalitarianism.

Until this all plays out, it would be irresponsible to decide whether ex-Tories are a better target than ex-Labour: the target has to be, for now, current small-l liberals. There's no real evidence voters are anything like as swayed by who else supports a party: Labour voters haven't been turned off voting Leave by the fact that Farage supports it.

For the foreseeable future, the LDs simply need to be BOTH the gung-ho supporters of more or less Remain (though I doubt they'd lose many votes or any authenticity if they settled just for the Single Market) and the even gungier-ho advocates of unalloyed small-l liberalism.

We can wait till they've made the country safe for small-l liberalism before worrying whether that's pink-leading or blue-leaning liberalism. Right now: there are bigger fish to fry.

SouthamObserver

DavidL said:

For understandable reasons this thread header looks through the polarised prism of Brexit. But nothing lasts forever, even if it feels like it. If we can move past this I think that we will find Boris a fairly centrist and liberal PM, more inclined to spend than the average Tory, socially liberal and pretty content with the status quo. Such a party will welcome back the likes of David Herdson, TSE, Richard and possibly even David Gauke

Johnson was a liberal Tory when it suited him. Now over half his cabinet voted against gay marriage and his MPs believe the government should have the right to close Parliament for as long as it wishes. Meanwhile, in Tory constituency parties the hard right is in the ascendent - Parliamentary candidates will do as they are told or be deselected. Even if Johnson wanted to take the party back to the centre he couldn’t. As Alastair says, there is no coming back from this. When Brexit is done the Tories will not be able to turn round and say “actually, we didn’t mean any of it”. They won’t want to and even if they did no-one will believe them.

Stark_Dawning

DavidL said:

For understandable reasons this thread header looks through the polarised prism of Brexit. But nothing lasts forever, even if it feels like it. If we can move past this I think that we will find Boris a fairly centrist and liberal PM, more inclined to spend than the average Tory, socially liberal and pretty content with the status quo. Such a party will welcome back the likes of David Herdson, TSE, Richard and possibly even David Gauke

Sounds like a variation of the 'Trump will reveal himself to be the liberal New Yorker he always was once in office' slogan.

OldKingCole

Flanner said:

The LibDems would be mad to think they stand at a crossroads.

Right now, both large parties have been taken over by totalitarians, and a huge proportion of the population despise both the policies of those totalitarians and the methods they adopt.

The LibDem Constitution starts off with a Preamble (https://www.libdems.org.uk/constitution) that's pretty much a summary of everything those totalitarians most despise. We've never been in a position where debate is so visibly moving from a big policy issue (Brexit) to a big method of government issue (totalitarianism vs liberalism) and no-one really knows how public opinion breaks. Talk to my Cotswold neighbours and 95% are now, or are contemplating secretly voting, LibDem - mainly on governance grounds, rather than policy issues. But listen to the Doncaster or Stoke voxpops on the Beeb and it's clear that huge swathes of previously apparent small-l liberals now tolerate totalitarianism.

Until this all plays out, it would be irresponsible to decide whether ex-Tories are a better target than ex-Labour: the target has to be, for now, current small-l liberals. There's no real evidence voters are anything like as swayed by who else supports a party: Labour voters haven't been turned off voting Leave by the fact that Farage supports it.

For the foreseeable future, the LDs simply need to be BOTH the gung-ho supporters of more or less Remain (though I doubt they'd lose many votes or any authenticity if they settled just for the Single Market) and the even gungier-ho advocates of unalloyed small-l liberalism.

We can wait till they've made the country safe for small-l liberalism before worrying whether that's pink-leading or blue-leaning liberalism. Right now: there are bigger fish to fry.

Good post. The Facebook posts from my old home town of Canvey Island can be horrifying.

FrancisUrquhart

dyingswan said:

I am completely indifferent to whether the PM signs the Surrender Act letter or not.. The Court can sign it for him, if necessary. But I would like to know before any VONC whether Jeremy Corbyn will be writing the letters of last resort to the commanding officers of the ballistic missile submarines. On a different point did my eyes deceive me or is Jared Omara MP still voting in this Undead parliament?

He has rescinded his resignation.

NickPalmer

i can only see the comments in PB using Vanilla today - is that just me?

JBriskinindyref2

NickPalmer said:

i can only see the comments in PB using Vanilla today - is that just me?

It's working fine for me using the green app

Sean_F

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

For understandable reasons this thread header looks through the polarised prism of Brexit. But nothing lasts forever, even if it feels like it. If we can move past this I think that we will find Boris a fairly centrist and liberal PM, more inclined to spend than the average Tory, socially liberal and pretty content with the status quo. Such a party will welcome back the likes of David Herdson, TSE, Richard and possibly even David Gauke

Johnson was a liberal Tory when it suited him. Now over half his cabinet voted against gay marriage and his MPs believe the government should have the right to close Parliament for as long as it wishes. Meanwhile, in Tory constituency parties the hard right is in the ascendent - Parliamentary candidates will do as they are told or be deselected. Even if Johnson wanted to take the party back to the centre he couldn’t. As Alastair says, there is no coming back from this. When Brexit is done the Tories will not be able to turn round and say “actually, we didn’t mean any of it”. They won’t want to and even if they did no-one will believe them.

But, have the Conservatives simply not gone where the voters have gone?

I now think this has all been a very long time coming. Economic growth dropped sharply across the West after 2000 (compared to the 1950-2000 period) ; the Great Financial Crash discredited the political class in most countries, and a lot of people in wealthier countries have been pushing back against globalisation. The United Kingdom fits in with other Western countries, instead of standing out.

Foxy

NickPalmer said:

i can only see the comments in PB using Vanilla today - is that just me?

Chrome working on my new phone and hurrah, I have figured out how to disable Bixby!

NickPalmer

JBriskinindyref2 said:

NickPalmer said:

i can only see the comments in PB using Vanilla today - is that just me?

It's working fine for me using the green app

Green app? Normally I just go to politicalbetting.com, but today once the leading article has displayed it just loops instead of showing the comments below the line. Any suggestions?

Tabman

It's fascinating to see how the open/closed political shift is playing out through the lens of FPTP and large party coalitions. Both the Labour and Conservative parties feel like the homes of broken marriages, where each spouse is sitting it out in loathing of the other in the hope that the other moves out first.

SouthamObserver

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

For understandable reasons this thread header looks through the polarised prism of Brexit. But nothing lasts forever, even if it feels like it. If we can move past this I think that we will find Boris a fairly centrist and liberal PM, more inclined to spend than the average Tory, socially liberal and pretty content with the status quo. Such a party will welcome back the likes of David Herdson, TSE, Richard and possibly even David Gauke

Johnson was a liberal Tory when it suited him. Now over half his cabinet voted against gay marriage and his MPs believe the government should have the right to close Parliament for as long as it wishes. Meanwhile, in Tory constituency parties the hard right is in the ascendent - Parliamentary candidates will do as they are told or be deselected. Even if Johnson wanted to take the party back to the centre he couldn’t. As Alastair says, there is no coming back from this. When Brexit is done the Tories will not be able to turn round and say “actually, we didn’t mean any of it”. They won’t want to and even if they did no-one will believe them.

But, have the Conservatives simply not gone where the voters have gone?

I now think this has all been a very long time coming. Economic growth dropped sharply across the West after 2000 (compared to the 1950-2000 period) ; the Great Financial Crash discredited the political class in most countries, and a lot of people in wealthier countries have been pushing back against globalisation. The United Kingdom fits in with other Western countries, instead of standing out.

Yep - the Tories have gone where 35% of mostly older, English voters are. It should win them the next election. It’s the one after that which is interesting. What we know for sure is that Johnson’s party will not be the socially liberal, centrist entity DavidL thinks it will be.

JBriskinindyref2

NickPalmer said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

NickPalmer said:

i can only see the comments in PB using Vanilla today - is that just me?

It's working fine for me using the green app

Green app? Normally I just go to politicalbetting.com, but today once the leading article has displayed it just loops instead of showing the comments below the line. Any suggestions?

Sorry I mean normal politicalbetting.com - facebook call there normal website the blue app y'see.

Sorry, No suggestions, I've got no IT role, expect to report that all is working normally for me.

OldKingCole

NickPalmer said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

NickPalmer said:

i can only see the comments in PB using Vanilla today - is that just me?

It's working fine for me using the green app

Green app? Normally I just go to politicalbetting.com, but today once the leading article has displayed it just loops instead of showing the comments below the line. Any suggestions?

It's certainly behaving oddly today. Try going to 'recent discussions" and clicking on Tommyknockers.

Roger

I agree with the header's conclusion. There are three parties that can be described as not lunatic fringe. The SNP The Lib Dems and The Independent Group.

We've heard from Nicola this week-end that the time has come to take the reins off Johnson and for this they'll almost certainly get a reasonable majority in parliament.

A leader other than Corbyn would be best but that is secondary. This new PM should form a committee from the best of the above and set about agreeing a deal with Barnier based on May's deal but paying no heed to the wishes of the DUP or the hard line Tories who have already soiled themselves.

This should see an end of the crackpots and we can have peace in the land once again.

(If not I can recommend the South of France which is more cheery than the UK in every way )

JBriskinindyref2

Roger said:

I agree with the header's conclusion. There are three parties than can be described as not lunatic fringe. The SNP The Lib Dems and The Independent Group.

We've heard from Nicola this week-end that the time has come to take the reins off Johnson and for this she'll almost certainly get a reasonable majority.

A leader other than Corbyn would be best but that is secondary. This new PM should form a committee from the best of the above and set about agreeing a deal with Barnier based on May's deal but paying no heed to the wishes of the DUP or the hard line Tories who have already soiled themselves.

This should see an end of the crackpots and we can have peace in the land once again.

(If not I can recommend the South of France which is more cheery than the UK anyway)

The SNP want to split this island in two practically down the middle - whilst certainly not fringe they are definitely a bit loony

nico67

Younger people need to take back control and vote .

Other wise their future will once again be decided by the over 65s who having screwed them with Brexit will screw them with a lunatic right wing Tory government .

HYUFD

Roger said:

I agree with the header's conclusion. There are three parties than can be described as not lunatic fringe. The SNP The Lib Dems and The Independent Group.

We've heard from Nicola this week-end that the time has come to take the reins off Johnson and for this she'll almost certainly get a reasonable majority.

A leader other than Corbyn would be best but that is secondary. This new PM should form a committee from the best of the above and set about agreeing a deal with Barnier based on May's deal but paying no heed to the wishes of the DUP or the hard line Tories who have already soiled themselves.

This should see an end of the crackpots and we can have peace in the land once again.

(If not I can recommend the South of France which is more cheery than the UK anyway)

The SNP are pretty populist too, even if a bit less so under Sturgeon than Salmond.

Le Pen also won most of the departments in the Mediterranean South coast of France in the first round of the 2017 presidential election

NickPalmer

OldKingCole said:

NickPalmer said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

NickPalmer said:

i can only see the comments in PB using Vanilla today - is that just me?

It's working fine for me using the green app

Green app? Normally I just go to politicalbetting.com, but today once the leading article has displayed it just loops instead of showing the comments below the line. Any suggestions?

It's certainly behaving oddly today. Try going to 'recent discussions" and clicking on Tommyknockers.

That works on Vanilla. I don't see a "recent discussions" button on the usual site. But thanks to you and JBriskin. Will read the vanilla site for now and hope it clears up.

HYUFD

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

For understandable reasons this thread header looks through the polarised prism of Brexit. But nothing lasts forever, even if it feels like it. If we can move past this I think that we will find Boris a fairly centrist and liberal PM, more inclined to spend than the average Tory, socially liberal and pretty content with the status quo. Such a party will welcome back the likes of David Herdson, TSE, Richard and possibly even David Gauke

Johnson was a liberal Tory when it suited him. Now over half his cabinet voted against gay marriage and his MPs believe the government should have the right to close Parliament for as long as it wishes. Meanwhile, in Tory constituency parties the hard right is in the ascendent - Parliamentary candidates will do as they are told or be deselected. Even if Johnson wanted to take the party back to the centre he couldn’t. As Alastair says, there is no coming back from this. When Brexit is done the Tories will not be able to turn round and say “actually, we didn’t mean any of it”. They won’t want to and even if they did no-one will believe them.

But, have the Conservatives simply not gone where the voters have gone?

I now think this has all been a very long time coming. Economic growth dropped sharply across the West after 2000 (compared to the 1950-2000 period) ; the Great Financial Crash discredited the political class in most countries, and a lot of people in wealthier countries have been pushing back against globalisation. The United Kingdom fits in with other Western countries, instead of standing out.

Of course in 2001 and 2005 the Tories also ran pretty populist campaigns against the EU and the Euro and immigration under Hague and Howard while Blair presented himself as leader of a sound competent New Labour government even before the crash

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

F1: suspect value may be hard to find. Might see what odds a Verstappen podium.

FPT: thanks, Miss JGP. I was a bit surprised the article went up so quickly as it's less time dependent than the Ipsus article I wrote a few weeks ago.

HYUFD

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

For understandable reasons this thread header looks through the polarised prism of Brexit. But nothing lasts forever, even if it feels like it. If we can move past this I think that we will find Boris a fairly centrist and liberal PM, more inclined to spend than the average Tory, socially liberal and pretty content with the status quo. Such a party will welcome back the likes of David Herdson, TSE, Richard and possibly even David Gauke

Johnson was a liberal Tory when it suited him. Now over half his cabinet voted against gay marriage and his MPs believe the government should have the right to close Parliament for as long as it wishes. Meanwhile, in Tory constituency parties the hard right is in the ascendent - Parliamentary candidates will do as they are told or be deselected. Even if Johnson wanted to take the party back to the centre he couldn’t. As Alastair says, there is no coming back from this. When Brexit is done the Tories will not be able to turn round and say “actually, we didn’t mean any of it”. They won’t want to and even if they did no-one will believe them.

But, have the Conservatives simply not gone where the voters have gone?

I now think this has all been a very long time coming. Economic growth dropped sharply across the West after 2000 (compared to the 1950-2000 period) ; the Great Financial Crash discredited the political class in most countries, and a lot of people in wealthier countries have been pushing back against globalisation. The United Kingdom fits in with other Western countries, instead of standing out.

Yep - the Tories have gone where 35% of mostly older, English voters are. It should win them the next election. It’s the one after that which is interesting. What we know for sure is that Johnson’s party will not be the socially liberal, centrist entity DavidL thinks it will be.

Which suggests the next non Tory government may be a Liberal Democrat led one rather than a Labour one

JBriskinindyref2

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

F1: suspect value may be hard to find. Might see what odds a Verstappen podium.

FPT: thanks, Miss JGP. I was a bit surprised the article went up so quickly as it's less time dependent than the Ipsus article I wrote a few weeks ago.

I'd have been sitting pretty if my Bottas lay yesterday went through - but I agree, the grid has got vanilla grand prix written all over it.

SouthamObserver

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

For understandable reasons this thread header looks through the polarised prism of Brexit. But nothing lasts forever, even if it feels like it. If we can move past this I think that we will find Boris a fairly centrist and liberal PM, more inclined to spend than the average Tory, socially liberal and pretty content with the status quo. Such a party will welcome back the likes of David Herdson, TSE, Richard and possibly even David Gauke

Johnson was a liberal Tory when it suited him. Now over half his cabinet voted against gay marriage and his MPs believe the government should have the right to close Parliament for as long as it wishes. Meanwhile, in Tory constituency parties the hard right is in the ascendent - Parliamentary candidates will do as they are told or be deselected. Even if Johnson wanted to take the party back to the centre he couldn’t. As Alastair says, there is no coming back from this. When Brexit is done the Tories will not be able to turn round and say “actually, we didn’t mean any of it”. They won’t want to and even if they did no-one will believe them.

But, have the Conservatives simply not gone where the voters have gone?

I now think this has all been a very long time coming. Economic growth dropped sharply across the West after 2000 (compared to the 1950-2000 period) ; the Great Financial Crash discredited the political class in most countries, and a lot of people in wealthier countries have been pushing back against globalisation. The United Kingdom fits in with other Western countries, instead of standing out.

Yep - the Tories have gone where 35% of mostly older, English voters are. It should win them the next election. It’s the one after that which is interesting. What we know for sure is that Johnson’s party will not be the socially liberal, centrist entity DavidL thinks it will be.

Which suggests the next non Tory government may be a Liberal Democrat led one rather than a Labour one

Labour’s next choice of leader will probably determine that. I would not be surprised to see an LD-led government within the next few years.

Recidivist

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

For understandable reasons this thread header looks through the polarised prism of Brexit. But nothing lasts forever, even if it feels like it. If we can move past this I think that we will find Boris a fairly centrist and liberal PM, more inclined to spend than the average Tory, socially liberal and pretty content with the status quo. Such a party will welcome back the likes of David Herdson, TSE, Richard and possibly even David Gauke

Johnson was a liberal Tory when it suited him. Now over half his cabinet voted against gay marriage and his MPs believe the government should have the right to close Parliament for as long as it wishes. Meanwhile, in Tory constituency parties the hard right is in the ascendent - Parliamentary candidates will do as they are told or be deselected. Even if Johnson wanted to take the party back to the centre he couldn’t. As Alastair says, there is no coming back from this. When Brexit is done the Tories will not be able to turn round and say “actually, we didn’t mean any of it”. They won’t want to and even if they did no-one will believe them.

But, have the Conservatives simply not gone where the voters have gone?

I now think this has all been a very long time coming. Economic growth dropped sharply across the West after 2000 (compared to the 1950-2000 period) ; the Great Financial Crash discredited the political class in most countries, and a lot of people in wealthier countries have been pushing back against globalisation. The United Kingdom fits in with other Western countries, instead of standing out.

Yep - the Tories have gone where 35% of mostly older, English voters are. It should win them the next election. It’s the one after that which is interesting. What we know for sure is that Johnson’s party will not be the socially liberal, centrist entity DavidL thinks it will be.

Which suggests the next non Tory government may be a Liberal Democrat led one rather than a Labour one

Labour’s next choice of leader will probably determine that. I would not be surprised to see an LD-led government within the next few years.

The last three elections have confounded all predictions, so why the heck not?

OldKingCole

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

For understandable reasons this thread header looks through the polarised prism of Brexit. But nothing lasts forever, even if it feels like it. If we can move past this I think that we will find Boris a fairly centrist and liberal PM, more inclined to spend than the average Tory, socially liberal and pretty content with the status quo. Such a party will welcome back the likes of David Herdson, TSE, Richard and possibly even David Gauke

Johnson was a liberal Tory when it suited him. Now over half his cabinet voted against gay marriage and his MPs believe the government should have the right to close Parliament for as long as it wishes. Meanwhile, in Tory constituency parties the hard right is in the ascendent - Parliamentary candidates will do as they are told or be deselected. Even if Johnson wanted to take the party back to the centre he couldn’t. As Alastair says, there is no coming back from this. When Brexit is done the Tories will not be able to turn round and say “actually, we didn’t mean any of it”. They won’t want to and even if they did no-one will believe them.

But, have the Conservatives simply not gone where the voters have gone?

I now think this has all been a very long time coming. Economic growth dropped sharply across the West after 2000 (compared to the 1950-2000 period) ; the Great Financial Crash discredited the political class in most countries, and a lot of people in wealthier countries have been pushing back against globalisation. The United Kingdom fits in with other Western countries, instead of standing out.

Yep - the Tories have gone where 35% of mostly older, English voters are. It should win them the next election. It’s the one after that which is interesting. What we know for sure is that Johnson’s party will not be the socially liberal, centrist entity DavidL thinks it will be.

Which suggests the next non Tory government may be a Liberal Democrat led one rather than a Labour one

Do you mean you expect the next PM to be Corbyn, and that he will be followed by Swinson?

Careful, the likes of Francois will be after you! Treason!!

Mysticrose

I feel it necessary to point out that Stephen King has also written some of the greatest things in contemporary literature, certainly from a commercial point of view. The Shawshank Redemption, The Green Mile, The Shining, Misery, IT, Pet Sematary, Carrie, Salem's Lot etc.

HYUFD

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

For understandable reasons this thread header looks through the polarised prism of Brexit. But nothing lasts forever, even if it feels like it. If we can move past this I think that we will find Boris a fairly centrist and liberal PM, more inclined to spend than the average Tory, socially liberal and pretty content with the status quo. Such a party will welcome back the likes of David Herdson, TSE, Richard and possibly even David Gauke

Johnson was a liberal Tory when it suited him. Now over half his cabinet voted against gay marriage and his MPs believe the government should have the right to close Parliament for as long as it wishes. Meanwhile, in Tory constituency parties the hard right is in the ascendent - Parliamentary candidates will do as they are told or be deselected. Even if Johnson wanted to take the party back to the centre he couldn’t. As Alastair says, there is no coming back from this. When Brexit is done the Tories will not be able to turn round and say “actually, we didn’t mean any of it”. They won’t want to and even if they did no-one will believe them.

But, have the Conservatives simply not gone where the voters have gone?

I now think this has all been a very long time coming. Economic growth dropped sharply across the West after 2000 (compared to the 1950-2000 period) ; the Great Financial Crash discredited the political class in most countries, and a lot of people in wealthier countries have been pushing back against globalisation. The United Kingdom fits in with other Western countries, instead of standing out.

DavidL thinks it will be.

Which suggests the next non Tory government may be a Liberal Democrat led one rather than a Labour one

Labour’s next choice of leader will probably determine that. I would not be surprised to see an LD-led government within the next few years.

As the Labour conference vote to reject a Remain platform for the Party last week showed while proposing abolishing private schools and a 32 hour week and the fact Corbyn has twice won over 60% of Labour members the party is now firmly in the grips of the hard left so I cannot see anything other than Corbyn being replaced by a fellow Corbynista even if Labour lose the next general election, they are going the way of the Socialist Party in France in my view where En Marche has become the main party of the liberal centre left

Mysticrose

I've a feeling Corbyn is going to outperform.

More than a feeling. I watched him twice this week, once at the Labour Conference and once in the House of Commons. Compared with his ratings he vastly out-performed. He was really rather good at times, especially when exposing the tories for hypocrisy.

I think he will take down Johnson who in turn will get very nasty back (IRA etc.).

It's going to be vicious.

p.s. I'm a Lib Dem member but I'm betting accordingly on Corbyn's Labour doing better than current polling.

Andy_JS

NickPalmer said:

i can only see the comments in PB using Vanilla today - is that just me?

That happened to me a few days ago but not today.

HYUFD

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

For understandable reasons this thread header looks through the polarised prism of Brexit. But nothing lasts forever, even if it feels like it. If we can move past this I think that we will find Boris a fairly centrist and liberal PM, more inclined to spend than the average Tory, socially liberal and pretty content with the status quo. Such a party will welcome back the likes of David Herdson, TSE, Richard and possibly even David Gauke

Johnson was a liberal Tory when it suited him. Now over half his cabinet voted against gay marriage and his MPs believe the government should have the right to close Parliament for as long as it wishes. Meanwhile, in Tory constituency parties the hard right is in the ascendent - Parliamentary candidates will do as they are told or be deselected. Even if Johnson wanted to take the party back to the centre he couldn’t. As Alastair says, there is no coming back from this. When Brexit is done the Tories will not be able to turn round and say “actually, we didn’t mean any of it”. They won’t want to and even if they did no-one will believe them.

But, have the Conservatives simply not gone where the voters have gone?

I now think this has all been a very long time coming. Economic growth dropped sharply across the West after 2000 (compared to the 1950-2000 period) ; the Great Financial Crash discredited the political class in most countries, and a lot of people in wealthier countries have been pushing back against globalisation. The United Kingdom fits in with other Western countries, instead of standing out.

Yep - the Tories have gone where 35% of mostly older, English voters are. It should win them the next election. It’s the one after that which is interesting. What we know for sure is that Johnson’s party will not be the socially liberal, centrist entity DavidL thinks it will be.

Which suggests the next non Tory government may be a Liberal Democrat led one rather than a Labour one

Do you mean you expect the next PM to be Corbyn, and that he will be followed by Swinson?

Careful, the likes of Francois will be after you! Treason!!

No, I think Boris will win the next general election and the likeliest next elected non Tory PM is Chuka Umunna

MikeSmithson

I use Firefox

JBriskinindyref2

MikeSmithson said:

I use Firefox

I'm on Microsoft Edge

Floater

nico67 said:

Younger people need to take back control and vote .

Other wise their future will once again be decided by the over 65s who having screwed them with Brexit will screw them with a lunatic right wing Tory government .

Your recommendation being choose a lunatic far left wing government to screw them?

HYUFD

Mysticrose said:

I've a feeling Corbyn is going to outperform.

More than a feeling. I watched him twice this week, once at the Labour Conference and once in the House of Commons. Compared with his ratings he vastly out-performed. He was really rather good at times, especially when exposing the tories for hypocrisy.

I think he will take down Johnson who in turn will get very nasty back (IRA etc.).

It's going to be vicious.

p.s. I'm a Lib Dem member but I'm betting accordingly on Corbyn's Labour doing better than current polling.

Depends which polling, some polls have Labour 11% behind the Tories and tied with the LDs, others have Labour tied with the Tories.

However all have Corbyn well behind Boris as preferred PM, indeed most now have Corbyn trailing Swinson too and historically the best PM rating has been the best indicator of the general election winner rather than headline voting intention

JBriskinindyref2

One half of Scotlands shame 1 nil up against the Dons - I'll let you know if big man Cosgrove and co make a comeback

OldKingCole

Mysticrose said:

I've a feeling Corbyn is going to outperform.

More than a feeling. I watched him twice this week, once at the Labour Conference and once in the House of Commons. Compared with his ratings he vastly out-performed. He was really rather good at times, especially when exposing the tories for hypocrisy.

I think he will take down Johnson who in turn will get very nasty back (IRA etc.).

It's going to be vicious.

p.s. I'm a Lib Dem member but I'm betting accordingly on Corbyn's Labour doing better than current polling.

One of the features of contemporary politics is that several of those at the top, especially, at the moment and in the recent past of the Tories have never had the useful experience of losing. Cameron went from Oxford to safe job, to another safe job and then to a safe seat. He had to fight bit, sometimes, but he always won. When he lost he didn't really know what to do! Same applies to Johnson; although he was sacked a couple of times he was always able to land on his feet. A carried VONC and relegation to the other side of the House could well be a wounding blow to his self esteem, which might affect him in all sorts of ways.

JBriskinindyref2

JBriskinindyref2 said:

One half of Scotlands shame 1 nil up against the Dons - I'll let you know if big man Cosgrove and co make a comeback

I am a jinx

Rangers 2 Aberdeen 0

Scott_P

JBriskinindyref2 said:

I'm on Microsoft Edge

So you're the one...

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1177956542651478016

FrancisUrquhart

JBriskinindyref2 said:

MikeSmithson said:

I use Firefox

I'm on Microsoft Edge

A lot of people on the internet seem to be on edge these days...oh are we talking about broswers.

JBriskinindyref2

Scott_P said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

I'm on Microsoft Edge

So you're the one...

Works fine for all the stuff I require - I find the other ones more problematic

Sandpit

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

F1: suspect value may be hard to find. Might see what odds a Verstappen podium.

FPT: thanks, Miss JGP. I was a bit surprised the article went up so quickly as it's less time dependent than the Ipsus article I wrote a few weeks ago.

I’m with you on being utterly confused as to what might happen in the race tomorrow. The weather could be anything (and the forecasters were wrong about it raining today). I can’t see past either Leclerc or Hamilton for the win, depending on which strategy is faster.

Am thinking of small-stakes silly bets like 50/50 on the safety car, Kvyat and Albon to score points from the back, Mercedes to outscore Ferrari, lay Verstappen for top 6...

HYUFD

OldKingCole said:

Mysticrose said:

I've a feeling Corbyn is going to outperform.

More than a feeling. I watched him twice this week, once at the Labour Conference and once in the House of Commons. Compared with his ratings he vastly out-performed. He was really rather good at times, especially when exposing the tories for hypocrisy.

I think he will take down Johnson who in turn will get very nasty back (IRA etc.).

It's going to be vicious.

p.s. I'm a Lib Dem member but I'm betting accordingly on Corbyn's Labour doing better than current polling.

One of the features of contemporary politics is that several of those at the top, especially, at the moment and in the recent past of the Tories have never had the useful experience of losing. Cameron went from Oxford to safe job, to another safe job and then to a safe seat. He had to fight bit, sometimes, but he always won. When he lost he didn't really know what to do! Same applies to Johnson; although he was sacked a couple of times he was always able to land on his feet. A carried VONC and relegation to the other side of the House could well be a wounding blow to his self esteem, which might affect him in all sorts of ways.

Far from it, as leader of the largest party in the Commons Boris would be the most powerful leader of the Opposition in the last century and could VONC constantly the weak new PM at his will, as soon as that new PM had extended hard to see them lasting long therefore

JBriskinindyref2

Sandpit said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

F1: suspect value may be hard to find. Might see what odds a Verstappen podium.

FPT: thanks, Miss JGP. I was a bit surprised the article went up so quickly as it's less time dependent than the Ipsus article I wrote a few weeks ago.

I’m with you on being utterly confused as to what might happen in the race tomorrow. The weather could be anything (and the forecasters were wrong about it raining today). I can’t see past either Leclerc or Hamilton for the win, depending on which strategy is faster.

Am thinking of small-stakes silly bets like 50/50 on the safety car, Kvyat and Albon to score points from the back, Mercedes to outscore Ferrari, lay Verstappen for top 6...

I hope that Verstappen lay was a joke - and if it was it was very deftly done

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Sandpit, safety car timing could be critical. In the soft tyre pit window, it'd screw Mercedes. If in the medium tyre window, it'd help them a lot.

Verstappen could do well, if he starts reasonably.

OldKingCole

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

Mysticrose said:

I've a feeling Corbyn is going to outperform.

More than a feeling. I watched him twice this week, once at the Labour Conference and once in the House of Commons. Compared with his ratings he vastly out-performed. He was really rather good at times, especially when exposing the tories for hypocrisy.

I think he will take down Johnson who in turn will get very nasty back (IRA etc.).

It's going to be vicious.

p.s. I'm a Lib Dem member but I'm betting accordingly on Corbyn's Labour doing better than current polling.

One of the features of contemporary politics is that several of those at the top, especially, at the moment and in the recent past of the Tories have never had the useful experience of losing. Cameron went from Oxford to safe job, to another safe job and then to a safe seat. He had to fight bit, sometimes, but he always won. When he lost he didn't really know what to do! Same applies to Johnson; although he was sacked a couple of times he was always able to land on his feet. A carried VONC and relegation to the other side of the House could well be a wounding blow to his self esteem, which might affect him in all sorts of ways.

Far from it, as leader of the largest party in the Commons Boris would be the most powerful leader of the Opposition in the last century and could VONC constantly the weak new PM at his will, as soon as that new PM had extended hard to see them lasting long therefore

My point is that I doubt being in Opposition will suit Johnson's temperament, along with the blow to his self-esteem in having to move out of 10 Downing Street before Carrie's had time to order the new curtains.

Benpointer

NickPalmer said:

OldKingCole said:

NickPalmer said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

NickPalmer said:

i can only see the comments in PB using Vanilla today - is that just me?

It's working fine for me using the green app

Green app? Normally I just go to politicalbetting.com, but today once the leading article has displayed it just loops instead of showing the comments below the line. Any suggestions?

It's certainly behaving oddly today. Try going to 'recent discussions" and clicking on Tommyknockers.

That works on Vanilla. I don't see a "recent discussions" button on the usual site. But thanks to you and JBriskin. Will read the vanilla site for now and hope it clears up.

Working fine for me on Safari.

(Not 'on safari', sadly.)

HYUFD

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

Mysticrose said:

I've a feeling Corbyn is going to outperform.

More than a feeling. I watched him twice this week, once at the Labour Conference and once in the House of Commons. Compared with his ratings he vastly out-performed. He was really rather good at times, especially when exposing the tories for hypocrisy.

I think he will take down Johnson who in turn will get very nasty back (IRA etc.).

It's going to be vicious.

p.s. I'm a Lib Dem member but I'm betting accordingly on Corbyn's Labour doing better than current polling.

One of the features of contemporary politics is that several of those at the top, especially, at the moment and in the recent past of the Tories have never had the useful experience of losing. Cameron went from Oxford to safe job, to another safe job and then to a safe seat. He had to fight bit, sometimes, but he always won. When he lost he didn't really know what to do! Same applies to Johnson; although he was sacked a couple of times he was always able to land on his feet. A carried VONC and relegation to the other side of the House could well be a wounding blow to his self esteem, which might affect him in all sorts of ways.

Far from it, as leader of the largest party in the Commons Boris would be the most powerful leader of the Opposition in the last century and could VONC constantly the weak new PM at his will, as soon as that new PM had extended hard to see them lasting long therefore

My point is that I doubt being in Opposition will suit Johnson's temperament, along with the blow to his self-esteem in having to move out of 10 Downing Street before Carrie's had time to order the new curtains.

Far from it, being leader of the opposition against a week government united by little except stopping Brexit will be ideal for the populist campaign Boris is running and he would likely be back in No 10 having won a general election within a few months anyway

Morris_Dancer

Interesting ruminations from Andrew Neil:
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1177909845527318528

Richard_Tyndall

Meeks used to write half way decent thread headers. Now he just writes extremist partisan diatribes to match the garbage he posts below the line.

RobD

.

Morris_Dancer said:

Interesting ruminations from Andrew Neil:
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1177909845527318528

I wish they'd drop the government of national unity phrase. Government of remainers, perhaps.

HYUFD

Morris_Dancer said:

Interesting ruminations from Andrew Neil:
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1177909845527318528

Cannot see Labour MPs like Kinnock and Snell and Nandy and Flint who oppose No Deal backing a second referendum, nor Tory MPs like Gauke and Soames either

Benpointer

Morris_Dancer said:

Interesting ruminations from Andrew Neil:
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1177909845527318528

A potentially great outcome imo...

... sadly, it feels unlikely. There's the small matter of what policies other than extend and 2nd ref it could agree on.

JBriskinindyref2

Richard_Tyndall said:

Meeks used to write half way decent thread headers. Now he just writes extremist partisan diatribes.

His first blobby graph thread METHs thread was good

Benpointer

RobD said:

.

Morris_Dancer said:

Interesting ruminations from Andrew Neil:
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1177909845527318528

I wish they'd drop the government of national unity phrase. Government of remainers, perhaps.

Rebel Alliance!

Sandpit

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Sandpit said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

F1: suspect value may be hard to find. Might see what odds a Verstappen podium.

FPT: thanks, Miss JGP. I was a bit surprised the article went up so quickly as it's less time dependent than the Ipsus article I wrote a few weeks ago.

I’m with you on being utterly confused as to what might happen in the race tomorrow. The weather could be anything (and the forecasters were wrong about it raining today). I can’t see past either Leclerc or Hamilton for the win, depending on which strategy is faster.

Am thinking of small-stakes silly bets like 50/50 on the safety car, Kvyat and Albon to score points from the back, Mercedes to outscore Ferrari, lay Verstappen for top 6...

I hope that Verstappen lay was a joke - and if it was it was very deftly done

Not a joke, remember he starts 10th with a grid penalty. He’ll be heavily odds-on to do it, and there’s more chance of him messing up from the midfield. He got stuck in 8th last time he started out of position, couldn’t pass the McLarens.

MarqueeMark

RobD said:

.

Morris_Dancer said:

Interesting ruminations from Andrew Neil:
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1177909845527318528

I wish they'd drop the government of national unity phrase. Government of remainers, perhaps.

Coup of Remainers is much nearer. They mostly don't have any democratic mandte for such a course.

rpjs

JBriskinindyref2 said:

MikeSmithson said:

I use Firefox

I'm on Microsoft Edge

Pervert.

Benpointer

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

Mysticrose said:

I've a feeling Corbyn is going to outperform.

More than a feeling. I watched him twice this week, once at the Labour Conference and once in the House of Commons. Compared with his ratings he vastly out-performed. He was really rather good at times, especially when exposing the tories for hypocrisy.

I think he will take down Johnson who in turn will get very nasty back (IRA etc.).

It's going to be vicious.

p.s. I'm a Lib Dem member but I'm betting accordingly on Corbyn's Labour doing better than current polling.

One of the features of contemporary politics is that several of those at the top, especially, at the moment and in the recent past of the Tories have never had the useful experience of losing. Cameron went from Oxford to safe job, to another safe job and then to a safe seat. He had to fight bit, sometimes, but he always won. When he lost he didn't really know what to do! Same applies to Johnson; although he was sacked a couple of times he was always able to land on his feet. A carried VONC and relegation to the other side of the House could well be a wounding blow to his self esteem, which might affect him in all sorts of ways.

Far from it, as leader of the largest party in the Commons Boris would be the most powerful leader of the Opposition in the last century and could VONC constantly the weak new PM at his will, as soon as that new PM had extended hard to see them lasting long therefore

My point is that I doubt being in Opposition will suit Johnson's temperament, along with the blow to his self-esteem in having to move out of 10 Downing Street before Carrie's had time to order the new curtains.

Far from it, being leader of the opposition against a week government united by little except stopping Brexit will be ideal for the populist campaign Boris is running and he would likely be back in No 10 having won a general election within a few months anyway

Unless he was in prison of course.

JBriskinindyref2

Sandpit said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Sandpit said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

F1: suspect value may be hard to find. Might see what odds a Verstappen podium.

FPT: thanks, Miss JGP. I was a bit surprised the article went up so quickly as it's less time dependent than the Ipsus article I wrote a few weeks ago.

I’m with you on being utterly confused as to what might happen in the race tomorrow. The weather could be anything (and the forecasters were wrong about it raining today). I can’t see past either Leclerc or Hamilton for the win, depending on which strategy is faster.

Am thinking of small-stakes silly bets like 50/50 on the safety car, Kvyat and Albon to score points from the back, Mercedes to outscore Ferrari, lay Verstappen for top 6...

I hope that Verstappen lay was a joke - and if it was it was very deftly done

Not a joke, remember he starts 10th with a grid penalty. He’ll be heavily odds-on to do it, and there’s more chance of him messing up from the midfield. He got stuck in 8th last time he started out of position, couldn’t pass the McLarens.

Don't do it!

RobD

.

Benpointer said:

RobD said:

.

Morris_Dancer said:

Interesting ruminations from Andrew Neil:
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1177909845527318528

I wish they'd drop the government of national unity phrase. Government of remainers, perhaps.

Rebel Alliance!

Rebel scum.

HYUFD

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

Mysticrose said:

I've a feeling Corbyn is going to outperform.

More than a feeling. I watched him twice this week, once at the Labour Conference and once in the House of Commons. Compared with his ratings he vastly out-performed. He was really rather good at times, especially when exposing the tories for hypocrisy.

I think he will take down Johnson who in turn will get very nasty back (IRA etc.).

It's going to be vicious.

p.s. I'm a Lib Dem member but I'm betting accordingly on Corbyn's Labour doing better than current polling.

One of the features of contemporary politics is that several of those at the top, especially, at the moment and in the recent past of the Tories have never had the useful experience of losing. Cameron went from Oxford to safe job, to another safe job and then to a safe seat. He had to fight bit, sometimes, but he always won. When he lost he didn't really know what to do! Same applies to Johnson; although he was sacked a couple of times he was always able to land on his feet. A carried VONC and relegation to the other side of the House could well be a wounding blow to his self esteem, which might affect him in all sorts of ways.

Far from it, as leader of the largest party in the Commons Boris would be the most powerful leader of the Opposition in the last century and could VONC constantly the weak new PM at his will, as soon as that new PM had extended hard to see them lasting long therefore

My point is that I doubt being in Opposition will suit Johnson's temperament, along with the blow to his self-esteem in having to move out of 10 Downing Street before Carrie's had time to order the new curtains.

Far from it, being leader of the opposition against a week government united by little except stopping Brexit will be ideal for the populist campaign Boris is running and he would likely be back in No 10 having won a general election within a few months anyway

Unless he was in prison of course.

In which case he would be a martyr for Brexiteers

RobD

MarqueeMark said:

RobD said:

.

Morris_Dancer said:

Interesting ruminations from Andrew Neil:
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1177909845527318528

I wish they'd drop the government of national unity phrase. Government of remainers, perhaps.

Coup of Remainers is much nearer. They mostly don't have any democratic mandte for such a course.

I would never have guessed that "respecting the referendum result" meant having a whole new referendum in a blatant attempt to annul the first one.

AlastairMeeks

JBriskinindyref2 said:

A Tories are crap thread. A welcome change from the Brexit is crap threads we normally get from our guest contributors

As PG Wodehouse once said:

“A certain critic -- for such men, I regret to say, do exist -- made the nasty remark about my last novel that it contained 'all the old Wodehouse characters under different names.' He has probably by now been eaten by bears, like the children who made mock of the prophet Elisha: but if he still survives he will not be able to make a similar charge against Summer Lightning. With my superior intelligence, I have out-generalled the man this time by putting in all the old Wodehouse characters under the same names. Pretty silly it will make him feel, I rather fancy.”

Gallowgate

MarqueeMark said:

RobD said:

.

Morris_Dancer said:

Interesting ruminations from Andrew Neil:
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1177909845527318528

I wish they'd drop the government of national unity phrase. Government of remainers, perhaps.

Coup of Remainers is much nearer. They mostly don't have any democratic mandte for such a course.

It is normal in parliamentary democracies for alternative majorities to form governments. See Italy.

There is no ‘coup’ about it.

PaulM

Good article Alastair
I think how the LibDems answer your question will go a long way to determining who wins our bet on St Albans !

OldKingCole

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

Mysticrose said:

I've a feeling Corbyn is going to outperform.

More than a feeling. I watched him twice this week, once at the Labour Conference and once in the House of Commons. Compared with his ratings he vastly out-performed. He was really rather good at times, especially when exposing the tories for hypocrisy.

I think he will take down Johnson who in turn will get very nasty back (IRA etc.).

It's going to be vicious.

p.s. I'm a Lib Dem member but I'm betting accordingly on Corbyn's Labour doing better than current polling.

One of the features of contemporary politics is that several of those at the top, especially, at the moment and in the recent past of the Tories have never had the useful experience of losing. Cameron went from Oxford to safe job, to another safe job and then to a safe seat. He had to fight bit, sometimes, but he always won. When he lost he didn't really know what to do! Same applies to Johnson; although he was sacked a couple of times he was always able to land on his feet. A carried VONC and relegation to the other side of the House could well be a wounding blow to his self esteem, which might affect him in all sorts of ways.

Far from it, as leader of the largest party in the Commons Boris would be the most powerful leader of the Opposition in the last century and could VONC constantly the weak new PM at his will, as soon as that new PM had extended hard to see them lasting long therefore

My point is that I doubt being in Opposition will suit Johnson's temperament, along with the blow to his self-esteem in having to move out of 10 Downing Street before Carrie's had time to order the new curtains.

Far from it, being leader of the opposition against a week government united by little except stopping Brexit will be ideal for the populist campaign Boris is running and he would likely be back in No 10 having won a general election within a few months anyway

We shall see; you may of course be right. But I suspect he would find himself going over the top and losing even such representatives of the Right as the Mail and Express. The last thing the readers of such would want is violence in the streets, especially when it was from their own side.

viewcode

JBriskinindyref2 said:

MikeSmithson said:

I use Firefox

I'm on Microsoft Edge

"Come quick, everybody! We've found him! Over here, over here!"

(Overhead the helicopters wheeled towards the spot, searchlights swinging to the position...)

Sean_F

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

For understandable reasons this thread header looks through the polarised prism of Brexit. But nothing lasts forever, even if it feels like it. If we can move past this I think that we will find Boris a fairly centrist and liberal PM, more inclined to spend than the average Tory, socially liberal and pretty content with the status quo. Such a party will welcome back the likes of David Herdson, TSE, Richard and possibly even David Gauke

Johnson was a liberal Tory when it suited him. Now over half his cabinet voted against gay marriage and his MPs believe the government should have the right to close Parliament for as long as it wishes. Meanwhile, in Tory constituency parties the hard right is in the ascendent - Parliamentary candidates will do as they are told or be deselected. Even if Johnson wanted to take the party back to the centre he couldn’t. As Alastair says, there is no coming back from this. When Brexit is done the Tories will not be able to turn round and say “actually, we didn’t mean any of it”. They won’t want to and even if they did no-one will believe them.

But, have the Conservatives simply not gone where the voters have gone?

I now think this has all been a very long time coming. Economic growth dropped sharply across the West after 2000 (compared to the 1950-2000 period) ; the Great Financial Crash discredited the political class in most countries, and a lot of people in wealthier countries have been pushing back against globalisation. The United Kingdom fits in with other Western countries, instead of standing out.

Of course in 2001 and 2005 the Tories also ran pretty populist campaigns against the EU and the Euro and immigration under Hague and Howard while Blair presented himself as leader of a sound competent New Labour government even before the crash

And, they failed. Now public opinion has moved towards where the Conservatives were in 2001 and 2005 (and also moved towards the Labour left position). Blair would crash and burn today.

Scott_P

Vote for The Brexit Party

https://twitter.com/number10leaks/status/1177961752220356608

Or Labour...

The_Taxman

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

Mysticrose said:

I've a feeling Corbyn is going to outperform.

More than a feeling. I watched him twice this week, once at the Labour Conference and once in the House of Commons. Compared with his ratings he vastly out-performed. He was really rather good at times, especially when exposing the tories for hypocrisy.

I think he will take down Johnson who in turn will get very nasty back (IRA etc.).

It's going to be vicious.

p.s. I'm a Lib Dem member but I'm betting accordingly on Corbyn's Labour doing better than current polling.

One of the features of contemporary politics is that several of those at the top, especially, at the moment and in the recent past of the Tories have never had the useful experience of losing. Cameron went from Oxford to safe job, to another safe job and then to a safe seat. He had to fight bit, sometimes, but he always won. When he lost he didn't really know what to do! Same applies to Johnson; although he was sacked a couple of times he was always able to land on his feet. A carried VONC and relegation to the other side of the House could well be a wounding blow to his self esteem, which might affect him in all sorts of ways.

Far from it, as leader of the largest party in the Commons Boris would be the most powerful leader of the Opposition in the last century and could VONC constantly the weak new PM at his will, as soon as that new PM had extended hard to see them lasting long therefore

My point is that I doubt being in Opposition will suit Johnson's temperament, along with the blow to his self-esteem in having to move out of 10 Downing Street before Carrie's had time to order the new curtains.

Far from it, being leader of the opposition against a week government united by little except stopping Brexit will be ideal for the populist campaign Boris is running and he would likely be back in No 10 having won a general election within a few months anyway

Unless he was in prison of course.

In which case he would be a martyr for Brexiteers

What would you think if the H of C reduced BJ salary for the job of PM to zero? Given BJ has wasted £100 million on No Deal advertising I think it would be fitting that BJ and perhaps Gove feel financial pain for their bad decisions. I say cut the PMs pay as a final warning shot before removal from office...

SouthamObserver

What could it be that led a handful of swivel-eyed members of the far left to seek the deselection of female, Jewish MP Margaret Hodge?

Pulpstar

PaulM said:

Good article Alastair
I think how the LibDems answer your question will go a long way to determining who wins our bet on St Albans !

I make St Albans turning yellow highly likely even if the Tories are near 400 seats.

Benpointer

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

Mysticrose said:

I've a feeling Corbyn is going to outperform.

More than a feeling. I watched him twice this week, once at the Labour Conference and once in the House of Commons. Compared with his ratings he vastly out-performed. He was really rather good at times, especially when exposing the tories for hypocrisy.

I think he will take down Johnson who in turn will get very nasty back (IRA etc.).

It's going to be vicious.

p.s. I'm a Lib Dem member but I'm betting accordingly on Corbyn's Labour doing better than current polling.

One of the features of contemporary politics is that several of those at the top, especially, at the moment and in the recent past of the Tories have never had the useful experience of losing. Cameron went from Oxford to safe job, to another safe job and then to a safe seat. He had to fight bit, sometimes, but he always won. When he lost he didn't really know what to do! Same applies to Johnson; although he was sacked a couple of times he was always able to land on his feet. A carried VONC and relegation to the other side of the House could well be a wounding blow to his self esteem, which might affect him in all sorts of ways.

Far from it, as leader of the largest party in the Commons Boris would be the most powerful leader of the Opposition in the last century and could VONC constantly the weak new PM at his will, as soon as that new PM had extended hard to see them lasting long therefore

My point is that I doubt being in Opposition will suit Johnson's temperament, along with the blow to his self-esteem in having to move out of 10 Downing Street before Carrie's had time to order the new curtains.

Far from it, being leader of the opposition against a week government united by little except stopping Brexit will be ideal for the populist campaign Boris is running and he would likely be back in No 10 having won a general election within a few months anyway

Unless he was in prison of course.

In which case he would be a martyr for Brexiteers

Excellent. Let Brexiteers worship at the altar of St. Boris while the rest of us just get on with, you know, having a life.