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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling analysis: One in three CON GE2017 Remainers now say th

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited September 30 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling analysis: One in three CON GE2017 Remainers now say they’ll vote Lib Dem

Thanks to Paula Surridge of the University of Bristol for first picking up this trend that an increasing and now sizeable chunk of CON Remainers from 2017 have now switched to the LDs.

Read the full story here


«13456

Comments

  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    First!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,879
    edited September 30
    That's an interesting new development. One Nation Lib Dems.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited September 30
    First unlike swinson
    Damn - third like Swinson!
  • Monday night football (data supplied by BFE)

    Man U 2.28
    Arsenal 3.35
    Draw 3.65
  • Ms Briskin's mum switched to LD for the Euros despite being a normally loyal Tory.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 22,315
    Good to see the fruits of all HY’s hard work
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    I am torn between supporting LD and Labour to preseve a pro-EU Labour MP. It depends on the polls! I used to vote Tory but under BoJo and his extreamist stance I cannot support that!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,042
    One in three CON GE2017 Remainers now say they’ll vote Lib Dem

    Is that all?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited September 30
    tlg86 said:

    One in three CON GE2017 Remainers now say they’ll vote Lib Dem

    Is that all?

    Depends where they switch! If LD are smart they will throw everything at 40 to 60 seats!
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,952
    JBriskyindyref:

    ++++

    I'm all for a Federal UK. As has been hinted at already on this thread, the break-up of these islands is now on the cards.

    ++++

    Far too pessimistic

    There has been ONE lead for YES in over two years of polling. And that was a narrow lead of 3 points. Margin of error stuff.

    You have to go back to 2016 to see regular YES leads, and even then they were unconvincing.

    It is unremarked on here, just how bad the Brexit shitshow is for Scottish independence. Brexit proves how difficult, painful, and costly it is to break a 50 year old union of quasi sovereign nations. So: how awful, traumatic and dystopian might it be to break up a 300 year union?

    Brexit is the WORST advert for indy, even if, paradoxically, it makes indy more emotionally desirable.

    Clever YES people, like Sturgeon herself, recognise this, however reluctantly. An indy vote now would likely be lost, killing the cause for a generation or two.

    In ten years, then yes, but by then we may all be dead of overheating.
  • FPT-

    Byronic/SeanT-

    We'll all be campaigning hard come indyref2
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,727
    tlg86 said:

    One in three CON GE2017 Remainers now say they’ll vote Lib Dem

    Is that all?

    For now
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 31,952
    Interesting to see how low that number was even as late as May.

    Plenty of shit had already hit the fan by then. The difference is Boris.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,815

    Monday night football (data supplied by BFE)

    Man U 2.28
    Arsenal 3.35
    Draw 3.65

    Lay Man U?
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 832

    tlg86 said:

    One in three CON GE2017 Remainers now say they’ll vote Lib Dem

    Is that all?

    For now
    I get the feeling that there are a lot of Tories who would switch to the LibDems but are actually put off by the 'revoke' pledge.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 4,144
    Why is no deal such a powerful threat to the EU.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,815
    On topic, this is a target-rich environment. A lot of the remainder are holding off moving because they don’t yet see the Lib Dems as a viable choice. If polls move further to the Lib Dems, a virtuous circle forms.
  • Monday night football (data supplied by BFE)

    Man U 2.28
    Arsenal 3.35
    Draw 3.65

    Lay Man U?
    Arsenal were my "English team" in my youth so I best not comment; especially as my footie losses are particularly bad this year.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 8,938

    I am torn between supporting LD and Labour to preseve a pro-EU Labour MP. It depends on the polls! I used to vote Tory but under BoJo and his extreamist stance I cannot support that!

    Which constituency?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,879

    tlg86 said:

    One in three CON GE2017 Remainers now say they’ll vote Lib Dem

    Is that all?

    For now
    The way the Tory headbangers are criticising May, Cameron and anyone to the left of Anne Widdecombe, this number is sure to rise.

    Join the LDs and pick up the Coalition where you left off!
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    And how many would still vote LD when we have left by the time of the election ?

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 4,144
    edited September 30

    On topic, this is a target-rich environment. A lot of the remainder are holding off moving because they don’t yet see the Lib Dems as a viable choice. If polls move further to the Lib Dems, a virtuous circle forms.

    Yes when the risk of corbyn diminishes the more people will feel able to vote Lib Dem
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    spudgfsh said:

    tlg86 said:

    One in three CON GE2017 Remainers now say they’ll vote Lib Dem

    Is that all?

    For now
    I get the feeling that there are a lot of Tories who would switch to the LibDems but are actually put off by the 'revoke' pledge.
    I dont agree! LD can only win. A significant population are opposed to Brexit! It is wrong and extreame if it is No Deal.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,952

    FPT-

    Byronic/SeanT-

    We'll all be campaigning hard come indyref2

    I don't think there will be one for quite a long time. Realpolitik. As long as Boris or the Tories are in power, they won't grant one. If Jo Swinson is near the levers of power, she will stop one.

    The SNP's only hopes (if they really hope for a referendum, which I rather doubt) is a Corbyn government. But a Corbyn government with real power, perhaps supported by the Nats, is quite unlikely.

    The SNP will never go for an illegal referendum.

    Indyref2, if it happens, will likely happen later in the 2020s. Is my bet.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,952
    spudgfsh said:

    tlg86 said:

    One in three CON GE2017 Remainers now say they’ll vote Lib Dem

    Is that all?

    For now
    I get the feeling that there are a lot of Tories who would switch to the LibDems but are actually put off by the 'revoke' pledge.
    Yes, it was idiotic.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 4,144
    Byronic said:

    FPT-

    Byronic/SeanT-

    We'll all be campaigning hard come indyref2

    I don't think there will be one for quite a long time. Realpolitik. As long as Boris or the Tories are in power, they won't grant one. If Jo Swinson is near the levers of power, she will stop one.

    The SNP's only hopes (if they really hope for a referendum, which I rather doubt) is a Corbyn government. But a Corbyn government with real power, perhaps supported by the Nats, is quite unlikely.

    The SNP will never go for an illegal referendum.

    Indyref2, if it happens, will likely happen later in the 2020s. Is my bet.
    In fact doesn’t independence signal the end of the SNP as we witness here the party is more important than the destination.
  • Byronic said:

    FPT-

    Byronic/SeanT-

    We'll all be campaigning hard come indyref2

    I don't think there will be one for quite a long time. Realpolitik. As long as Boris or the Tories are in power, they won't grant one. If Jo Swinson is near the levers of power, she will stop one.

    The SNP's only hopes (if they really hope for a referendum, which I rather doubt) is a Corbyn government. But a Corbyn government with real power, perhaps supported by the Nats, is quite unlikely.

    The SNP will never go for an illegal referendum.

    Indyref2, if it happens, will likely happen later in the 2020s. Is my bet.
    They keep getting separatist majorities in Holyrood. I really hope this changes.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 832

    spudgfsh said:

    tlg86 said:

    One in three CON GE2017 Remainers now say they’ll vote Lib Dem

    Is that all?

    For now
    I get the feeling that there are a lot of Tories who would switch to the LibDems but are actually put off by the 'revoke' pledge.
    I dont agree! LD can only win. A significant population are opposed to Brexit! It is wrong and extreame if it is No Deal.
    but a straight out revoke pledge was wrong. it should have been a referendum with a viable off the shelf deal (like EFTA)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,108
    edited September 30
    Opinium also has 32% of 2017 Labour Remainers now voting LD and 21% of 2017 Labour Leavers now voting Tory and 37% of 2017 LD Leavers now also voting Tory.

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-11th-september-2019-2/
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    justin124 said:

    I am torn between supporting LD and Labour to preseve a pro-EU Labour MP. It depends on the polls! I used to vote Tory but under BoJo and his extreamist stance I cannot support that!

    Which constituency?
    I would rather not say as i dont thiink it will add anything! But it is a pro-EU MP who lost his rag in the last few weeks in parlament! That to the people who follow political discourse will perhaps give a clue to my locationn? Or maybe not!
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,952
    edited September 30

    Byronic said:

    FPT-

    Byronic/SeanT-

    We'll all be campaigning hard come indyref2

    I don't think there will be one for quite a long time. Realpolitik. As long as Boris or the Tories are in power, they won't grant one. If Jo Swinson is near the levers of power, she will stop one.

    The SNP's only hopes (if they really hope for a referendum, which I rather doubt) is a Corbyn government. But a Corbyn government with real power, perhaps supported by the Nats, is quite unlikely.

    The SNP will never go for an illegal referendum.

    Indyref2, if it happens, will likely happen later in the 2020s. Is my bet.
    They keep getting separatist majorities in Holyrood. I really hope this changes.
    Yes, the SNP have - very impressively - avoided the forces of political gravity, for far longer than anyone expected. When will they fall? They must fall eventually. Perhaps when Sturgeon retires, after the Salmond trial.

    Ironically, probably the worst Brexit outcome for the Nats is Britain staying in the EU.

    Because then a vote for YES is a vote for instant expulsion from the UK AND from the EU. From both main markets. From the £ and the €. The chaos and pain would be immediate, and would endure for decades.

    I suggest such a vote, after the sobering nightmare of Brexit as we have seen it, would be lost 60/40 or worse.

  • TGOHF2 said:

    And how many would still vote LD when we have left by the time of the election ?

    Depends if Brexit is merely Brexshit or full on Eurogeddon?
  • Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    FPT-

    Byronic/SeanT-

    We'll all be campaigning hard come indyref2

    I don't think there will be one for quite a long time. Realpolitik. As long as Boris or the Tories are in power, they won't grant one. If Jo Swinson is near the levers of power, she will stop one.

    The SNP's only hopes (if they really hope for a referendum, which I rather doubt) is a Corbyn government. But a Corbyn government with real power, perhaps supported by the Nats, is quite unlikely.

    The SNP will never go for an illegal referendum.

    Indyref2, if it happens, will likely happen later in the 2020s. Is my bet.
    They keep getting separatist majorities in Holyrood. I really hope this changes.
    Yes, the SNP have - very impressively - avoided the forces of political gravity, for far longer than anyone expected. When will they fall? They must fall eventually. Perhaps when Sturgeon retires, after the Salmond trial.

    Ironically, probably the worst Brexit outcome for the Nats is Britain staying in the EU.

    Because then a vote for YES is a vote for instant expulsion from the UK AND from the EU. From both main markets. From the £ and the €. The chaos and pain would be immediate, and would endure for decades.

    I suggest such a vote, after the sobering nightmare of Brexit as we have seen it, would be lost 60/40 or worse.

    There'd be a shortage of champers in the UK after a 60/40 vote.
  • Another reason Swinson is right not to touch Corbyn with a barge poll. We'll get to the ' Revoke Reward ' in due course.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 9,089
    The Lib Dems better prepare for Government then......

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,042

    Monday night football (data supplied by BFE)

    Man U 2.28
    Arsenal 3.35
    Draw 3.65

    Lay Man U?
    Lay Arsenal.
  • justin124 said:

    I am torn between supporting LD and Labour to preseve a pro-EU Labour MP. It depends on the polls! I used to vote Tory but under BoJo and his extreamist stance I cannot support that!

    Which constituency?
    I would rather not say as i dont thiink it will add anything! But it is a pro-EU MP who lost his rag in the last few weeks in parlament! That to the people who follow political discourse will perhaps give a clue to my locationn? Or maybe not!
    I'm guessing your constituency is the birthplace of another Labour politician, of somewhat greater fame.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,952

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    FPT-

    Byronic/SeanT-

    We'll all be campaigning hard come indyref2

    I don't think there will be one for quite a long time. Realpolitik. As long as Boris or the Tories are in power, they won't grant one. If Jo Swinson is near the levers of power, she will stop one.

    The SNP's only hopes (if they really hope for a referendum, which I rather doubt) is a Corbyn government. But a Corbyn government with real power, perhaps supported by the Nats, is quite unlikely.

    The SNP will never go for an illegal referendum.

    Indyref2, if it happens, will likely happen later in the 2020s. Is my bet.
    They keep getting separatist majorities in Holyrood. I really hope this changes.
    Yes, the SNP have - very impressively - avoided the forces of political gravity, for far longer than anyone expected. When will they fall? They must fall eventually. Perhaps when Sturgeon retires, after the Salmond trial.

    Ironically, probably the worst Brexit outcome for the Nats is Britain staying in the EU.

    Because then a vote for YES is a vote for instant expulsion from the UK AND from the EU. From both main markets. From the £ and the €. The chaos and pain would be immediate, and would endure for decades.

    I suggest such a vote, after the sobering nightmare of Brexit as we have seen it, would be lost 60/40 or worse.

    There'd be a shortage of champers in the UK after a 60/40 vote.
    Not in England. You over-estimate the desire in England to stay linked to the Scots, after the first indyref, and Brexit. A large minority, maybe a majority of English people would quite happily say goodbye to Scotland and Edinburgh's perceived drag on the English treasury.

    I am not one of them. I am a convinced English unionist and a happy Briton, I don't want Scotland to go, but I can see the polls on English perceptions, and I can sense the mood around me.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 8,938

    justin124 said:

    I am torn between supporting LD and Labour to preseve a pro-EU Labour MP. It depends on the polls! I used to vote Tory but under BoJo and his extreamist stance I cannot support that!

    Which constituency?
    I would rather not say as i dont thiink it will add anything! But it is a pro-EU MP who lost his rag in the last few weeks in parlament! That to the people who follow political discourse will perhaps give a clue to my locationn? Or maybe not!
    Huddersfield!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,780
    FPT:

    rcs1000 said:

    Surely, though, a GoNAfaE would only exist to:

    (1) ask for (and secure) an extension
    (2) No Confidence itself

    That could happen over the length of a Kenneth Clarke lunch.

    That is what I was thinking, but then who is in charge for the subsequent election?
    Well, I don't see why Mr Johnson doesn't get to get the reigns of government back for the election (should he so desire). He can confidence himself, and then call an election. (Or resign if necessary.)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,780
    Byronic said:

    JBriskyindyref:

    ++++

    I'm all for a Federal UK. As has been hinted at already on this thread, the break-up of these islands is now on the cards.

    ++++

    Far too pessimistic

    There has been ONE lead for YES in over two years of polling. And that was a narrow lead of 3 points. Margin of error stuff.

    You have to go back to 2016 to see regular YES leads, and even then they were unconvincing.

    It is unremarked on here, just how bad the Brexit shitshow is for Scottish independence. Brexit proves how difficult, painful, and costly it is to break a 50 year old union of quasi sovereign nations. So: how awful, traumatic and dystopian might it be to break up a 300 year union?

    Brexit is the WORST advert for indy, even if, paradoxically, it makes indy more emotionally desirable.

    Clever YES people, like Sturgeon herself, recognise this, however reluctantly. An indy vote now would likely be lost, killing the cause for a generation or two.

    In ten years, then yes, but by then we may all be dead of overheating.

    Yeah, but you have to understand, Scotland would hold all the cards in its negotiations with rUK.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 4,593
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    FPT-

    Byronic/SeanT-

    We'll all be campaigning hard come indyref2

    I don't think there will be one for quite a long time. Realpolitik. As long as Boris or the Tories are in power, they won't grant one. If Jo Swinson is near the levers of power, she will stop one.

    The SNP's only hopes (if they really hope for a referendum, which I rather doubt) is a Corbyn government. But a Corbyn government with real power, perhaps supported by the Nats, is quite unlikely.

    The SNP will never go for an illegal referendum.

    Indyref2, if it happens, will likely happen later in the 2020s. Is my bet.
    They keep getting separatist majorities in Holyrood. I really hope this changes.
    Yes, the SNP have - very impressively - avoided the forces of political gravity, for far longer than anyone expected. When will they fall? They must fall eventually. Perhaps when Sturgeon retires, after the Salmond trial.

    Ironically, probably the worst Brexit outcome for the Nats is Britain staying in the EU.

    Because then a vote for YES is a vote for instant expulsion from the UK AND from the EU. From both main markets. From the £ and the €. The chaos and pain would be immediate, and would endure for decades.

    I suggest such a vote, after the sobering nightmare of Brexit as we have seen it, would be lost 60/40 or worse.

    Hm, you're being inconsistent with your previous mailing: if the referendum is legal then it will be accepted by the EU as they have made clear - or as clear as they can when the UK is still a member. Even the Spanish have said that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,108
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    FPT-

    Byronic/SeanT-

    We'll all be campaigning hard come indyref2

    I don't think there will be one for quite a long time. Realpolitik. As long as Boris or the Tories are in power, they won't grant one. If Jo Swinson is near the levers of power, she will stop one.

    The SNP's only hopes (if they really hope for a referendum, which I rather doubt) is a Corbyn government. But a Corbyn government with real power, perhaps supported by the Nats, is quite unlikely.

    The SNP will never go for an illegal referendum.

    Indyref2, if it happens, will likely happen later in the 2020s. Is my bet.
    They keep getting separatist majorities in Holyrood. I really hope this changes.
    Yes, the SNP have - very impressively - avoided the forces of political gravity, for far longer than anyone expected. When will they fall? They must fall eventually. Perhaps when Sturgeon retires, after the Salmond trial.

    Ironically, probably the worst Brexit outcome for the Nats is Britain staying in the EU.

    Because then a vote for YES is a vote for instant expulsion from the UK AND from the EU. From both main markets. From the £ and the €. The chaos and pain would be immediate, and would endure for decades.

    I suggest such a vote, after the sobering nightmare of Brexit as we have seen it, would be lost 60/40 or worse.

    There'd be a shortage of champers in the UK after a 60/40 vote.
    Not in England. You over-estimate the desire in England to stay linked to the Scots, after the first indyref, and Brexit. A large minority, maybe a majority of English people would quite happily say goodbye to Scotland and Edinburgh's perceived drag on the English treasury.

    I am not one of them. I am a convinced English unionist and a happy Briton, I don't want Scotland to go, but I can see the polls on English perceptions, and I can sense the mood around me.
    To be fair to Scotland, Scotland has a gdp per capita higher than any English regions bar London and the South East, it could survive as an independent nation in a way that Wales, which is poorer than every English region bar the North East, could not.

    However I still believe the Union is better for all of us
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 832
    Byronic said:

    There'd be a shortage of champers in the UK after a 60/40 vote.

    Not in England. You over-estimate the desire in England to stay linked to the Scots, after the first indyref, and Brexit. A large minority, maybe a majority of English people would quite happily say goodbye to Scotland and Edinburgh's perceived drag on the English treasury.

    I am not one of them. I am a convinced English unionist and a happy Briton, I don't want Scotland to go, but I can see the polls on English perceptions, and I can sense the mood around me.
    There's a growing sense of English identity in a fashion which Scotland and Wales have always had. There is very little left that actually fosters a British identity anymore. Probably only the olympics?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 3,714
    It will be interesting to see what, if anything, changes in the Lib Dem offer to the electorate if soft centre-right voters and well-to-do constituencies in London and the South East become progressively more important to them.

    It has been suggested in some quarters that the Tories may be moving in the direction of a right-wing populist platform, consisting of social conservatism laced with elements of centre-left economics. Perhaps the Lib Dems will end up espousing the opposite? The Orange Book tendency may yet rise from the grave in tandem with the party...
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 2,360
    Given that the Libs polled only 7.5% at GE 2017 but are now at 20% with Opinium, by definition most of their current support must be coming from people who previously voted for the two main parties at that election. And it's no surprise that the Libs are picking up Conservative Remainers as well as Labour Remainers but no Leavers.

    So in a sense this analysis is just stating what is pretty obvious anyway from the headline figures. Johnson won't be too discomforted if the Opinium data as a whole is correct, because it has the Conservatives on 36%, 12% ahead of Lab and 16% ahead of the Libs.
  • Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    FPT-

    Byronic/SeanT-

    We'll all be campaigning hard come indyref2

    I don't think there will be one for quite a long time. Realpolitik. As long as Boris or the Tories are in power, they won't grant one. If Jo Swinson is near the levers of power, she will stop one.

    The SNP's only hopes (if they really hope for a referendum, which I rather doubt) is a Corbyn government. But a Corbyn government with real power, perhaps supported by the Nats, is quite unlikely.

    The SNP will never go for an illegal referendum.

    Indyref2, if it happens, will likely happen later in the 2020s. Is my bet.
    They keep getting separatist majorities in Holyrood. I really hope this changes.
    Yes, the SNP have - very impressively - avoided the forces of political gravity, for far longer than anyone expected. When will they fall? They must fall eventually. Perhaps when Sturgeon retires, after the Salmond trial.

    Ironically, probably the worst Brexit outcome for the Nats is Britain staying in the EU.

    Because then a vote for YES is a vote for instant expulsion from the UK AND from the EU. From both main markets. From the £ and the €. The chaos and pain would be immediate, and would endure for decades.

    I suggest such a vote, after the sobering nightmare of Brexit as we have seen it, would be lost 60/40 or worse.

    There'd be a shortage of champers in the UK after a 60/40 vote.
    Not in England. You over-estimate the desire in England to stay linked to the Scots, after the first indyref, and Brexit. A large minority, maybe a majority of English people would quite happily say goodbye to Scotland and Edinburgh's perceived drag on the English treasury.

    I am not one of them. I am a convinced English unionist and a happy Briton, I don't want Scotland to go, but I can see the polls on English perceptions, and I can sense the mood around me.
    I wasn't implying England - it was too close for us Unionist Scots to properly enjoy last time - The champers will be drunk in the north of the island (and whatever they like in Glasgow) come a 60/40
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,815

    It will be interesting to see what, if anything, changes in the Lib Dem offer to the electorate if soft centre-right voters and well-to-do constituencies in London and the South East become progressively more important to them.

    It has been suggested in some quarters that the Tories may be moving in the direction of a right-wing populist platform, consisting of social conservatism laced with elements of centre-left economics. Perhaps the Lib Dems will end up espousing the opposite? The Orange Book tendency may yet rise from the grave in tandem with the party...

    This was the theme of my post on Saturday. I don’t know what the Lib Dems’ best strategy is. Insurgent campaigning may be more effective in the modern world.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 955
    I really do think the Cox family have suffered enough without having Boris ringing in.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    I am torn between supporting LD and Labour to preseve a pro-EU Labour MP. It depends on the polls! I used to vote Tory but under BoJo and his extreamist stance I cannot support that!

    Which constituency?
    I would rather not say as i dont thiink it will add anything! But it is a pro-EU MP who lost his rag in the last few weeks in parlament! That to the people who follow political discourse will perhaps give a clue to my locationn? Or maybe not!
    Huddersfield!
    Yes, but not at this time! I am in halifax and to be fair have heard no political chat! But will investigate.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,952
    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    FPT-

    Byronic/SeanT-

    We'll all be campaigning hard come indyref2

    I don't think there will be one for quite a long time. Realpolitik. As long as Boris or the Tories are in power, they won't grant one. If Jo Swinson is near the levers of power, she will stop one.

    The SNP's only hopes (if they really hope for a referendum, which I rather doubt) is a Corbyn government. But a Corbyn government with real power, perhaps supported by the Nats, is quite unlikely.

    The SNP will never go for an illegal referendum.

    Indyref2, if it happens, will likely happen later in the 2020s. Is my bet.
    They keep getting separatist majorities in Holyrood. I really hope this changes.
    Yes, the SNP have - very impressively - avoided the forces of political gravity, for far longer than anyone expected. When will they fall? They must fall eventually. Perhaps when Sturgeon retires, after the Salmond trial.

    Ironically, probably the worst Brexit outcome for the Nats is Britain staying in the EU.

    Because then a vote for YES is a vote for instant expulsion from the UK AND from the EU. From both main markets. From the £ and the €. The chaos and pain would be immediate, and would endure for decades.

    I suggest such a vote, after the sobering nightmare of Brexit as we have seen it, would be lost 60/40 or worse.

    There'd be a shortage of champers in the UK after a 60/40 vote.
    Not in England. You over-estimate the desire in England to stay linked to the Scots, after the first indyref, and Brexit. A large minority, maybe a majority of English people would quite happily say goodbye to Scotland and Edinburgh's perceived drag on the English treasury.

    I am not one of them. I am a convinced English unionist and a happy Briton, I don't want Scotland to go, but I can see the polls on English perceptions, and I can sense the mood around me.
    To be fair to Scotland, Scotland has a gdp per capita higher than any English regions bar London and the South East, it could survive as an independent nation in a way that Wales, which is poorer than every English region bar the North East, could not.

    However I still believe the Union is better for all of us
    I agree, and I am glad that the Tories and the Lib Dems would oppose a 2nd Scots referendum.

    If Brexit has taught us one thing, it is that referendums cannot be dispensed casually.

    The Nats had one referendum, make them wait a generation for the next, as promised. This, by the way, is also a very strong argument against a 2nd EU referendum.
  • Another reason Swinson is right not to touch Corbyn with a barge poll. We'll get to the ' Revoke Reward ' in due course.

    Tricky balance for her to strike to avoid being somehow seen as obstructive to Remain efforts. I think Corbyn is as much a turn off to some of the Labour moderates drifting over to the LDs as he is to ex Tories.

    With both Mark Francois (tonight) and the DUP (last week) hinting at willingness to look at an improved deal, it will get interesting for all concerned if Boris does in fact bring a deal back, vanishingly unlikely as that seems. Hard to guess how voting against one would play out with these fluid groups of voters.
  • spudgfsh said:

    Byronic said:

    There'd be a shortage of champers in the UK after a 60/40 vote.

    Not in England. You over-estimate the desire in England to stay linked to the Scots, after the first indyref, and Brexit. A large minority, maybe a majority of English people would quite happily say goodbye to Scotland and Edinburgh's perceived drag on the English treasury.

    I am not one of them. I am a convinced English unionist and a happy Briton, I don't want Scotland to go, but I can see the polls on English perceptions, and I can sense the mood around me.
    There's a growing sense of English identity in a fashion which Scotland and Wales have always had. There is very little left that actually fosters a British identity anymore. Probably only the olympics?
    It's the same F-ing Island as someone once famously (to me at least) stated on PB.

    We don't need to go on marches every week like the Yessers.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 4,144

    It will be interesting to see what, if anything, changes in the Lib Dem offer to the electorate if soft centre-right voters and well-to-do constituencies in London and the South East become progressively more important to them.

    It has been suggested in some quarters that the Tories may be moving in the direction of a right-wing populist platform, consisting of social conservatism laced with elements of centre-left economics. Perhaps the Lib Dems will end up espousing the opposite? The Orange Book tendency may yet rise from the grave in tandem with the party...

    This was the theme of my post on Saturday. I don’t know what the Lib Dems’ best strategy is. Insurgent campaigning may be more effective in the modern world.
    The problem the LD’s have is that they are geared up to a 40/40 strategy ie 40 seats with full focus And 40 with development focus. It’s still the best approach, if the narrative changes beyond wildest expectations then it will deliver itself. They need to not get carried away and see what happens.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,108
    Byronic said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    FPT-

    Byronic/SeanT-

    We'll all be campaigning hard come indyref2

    I don't think there will be one for quite a long time. Realpolitik. As long as Boris or the Tories are in power, they won't grant one. If Jo Swinson is near the levers of power, she will stop one.

    The SNP's only hopes (if they really hope for a referendum, which I rather doubt) is a Corbyn government. But a Corbyn government with real power, perhaps supported by the Nats, is quite unlikely.

    The SNP will never go for an illegal referendum.

    Indyref2, if it happens, will likely happen later in the 2020s. Is my bet.
    They keep getting separatist majorities in Holyrood. I really hope this changes.
    Yes, the SNP have - very impressively - avoided the forces of political gravity, for far longer than anyone expected. When will they fall? They must fall eventually. Perhaps when Sturgeon retires, after the Salmond trial.

    Ironically, probably the worst Brexit outcome for the Nats is Britain staying in the EU.

    Because then a vote for YES is a vote for instant expulsion from the UK AND from the EU. From both main markets. From the £ and the €. The chaos and pain would be immediate, and would endure for decades.

    I suggest such a vote, after the sobering nightmare of Brexit as we have seen it, would be lost 60/40 or worse.

    There'd be a shortage of champers in the UK after a 60/40 vote.
    Not in England. You over-estimate the desire in England to stay linked to the Scots, after the first indyreund me.
    To be fair to Scotland, Scotland has a gdp per capita higher than any English regions bar London and the South East, it could survive as an independent nation in a way that Wales, which is poorer than every English region bar the North East, could not.

    However I still believe the Union is better for all of us
    I agree, and I am glad that the Tories and the Lib Dems would oppose a 2nd Scots referendum.

    If Brexit has taught us one thing, it is that referendums cannot be dispensed casually.

    The Nats had one referendum, make them wait a generation for the next, as promised. This, by the way, is also a very strong argument against a 2nd EU referendum.
    Indeed, Quebec had to wait 15 years after its first referendum on independence from Canada in 1980 for a second.

    Given the Socialist Spanish PM has an election next month and polls suggest Catalan nationalists will hold the balance of power we may finally get a referendum on independence in Catalonia first anyway
  • FPT, but I just wanted to comment on this.
    nico67 said:

    Thankfully the opposition parties have seen sense and not fallen for a trap .

    To have tried to VONC Bozo now would have allowed him to say they ruined negotiations as allegedly concrete proposals will be put forward early next week .

    Secondly the 21 Tory rebels are reluctant to pull the plug, some want the whip back and others want to be seen to giving him a chance to secure a deal.

    The off record briefings about a loophole in the Benn Act were a desperate attempt to frighten the opposition into an early VONC.

    The so called loopholes are just more nonsense from Cummings .

    I think the so called 'Rebel Alliance' a (lot) frit. They have continuously said they'll VoNC, but no VoNC is ever put forward (though I think this says more about the state of Labour than the Lib Dems and SNP, as only Labour has the unfettered ability to VoNC). Now they say they are going to wait until next week as more proposals are being put forward.

    Haven't we been here before? Twice? On 20th August, Merkel told Bozo to come up with a workable solution within 30 days. He told Steven Barclay to crack on. 30 days have passed, and nothing. Nothing happened. The 20th September has come and gone.

    The separately, on the 18th, I recall the Finnish PM told the UK it had twelve days to put something forward that would work. Well, it's 8pm on the evening of the 30th September, and unless Johnson pulls something out in the next few hours (there's a joke there somewhere), nothing has been presented.
    Now we're told to wait till next week?

    Here's a sentence for you, that'll work whatever day you read it. "TOMORROW, Johnson will put forward workable solutions to the Backstop and solve Brexit. TOMORROW." Read that whenever you want. It'll always be true.


    Secondly, and lesserly, stop calling them the '21' rebels. Sam Gyimah is gone, and ain't coming back. And I'm willing to bet a few others aren't either (at least not whilst Johnson is in charge). I think even if Brexit were resolved (somehow), only about 15 would return to the fold max. I can't see the Conservatives regaining their majority anytime soon (if ever before a GE).
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 832

    spudgfsh said:

    Byronic said:

    There'd be a shortage of champers in the UK after a 60/40 vote.

    Not in England. You over-estimate the desire in England to stay linked to the Scots, after the first indyref, and Brexit. A large minority, maybe a majority of English people would quite happily say goodbye to Scotland and Edinburgh's perceived drag on the English treasury.

    I am not one of them. I am a convinced English unionist and a happy Briton, I don't want Scotland to go, but I can see the polls on English perceptions, and I can sense the mood around me.
    There's a growing sense of English identity in a fashion which Scotland and Wales have always had. There is very little left that actually fosters a British identity anymore. Probably only the olympics?
    It's the same F-ing Island as someone once famously (to me at least) stated on PB.

    We don't need to go on marches every week like the Yessers.
    no, but if there is nothing out there that fosters a united identity and there are forces out there (like the scottish parliament and many others) which are fostering different identities then the british identity will die. can the UK survive without it?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 4,144
    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    FPT-

    Byronic/SeanT-

    We'll all be campaigning hard come indyref2

    I don't think there will be one for quite a long time. Realpolitik. As long as Boris or the Tories are in power, they won't grant one. If Jo Swinson is near the levers of power, she will stop one.

    The SNP's only hopes (if they really hope for a referendum, which I rather doubt) is a Corbyn government. But a Corbyn government with real power, perhaps supported by the Nats, is quite unlikely.

    The SNP will never go for an illegal referendum.

    Indyref2, if it happens, will likely happen later in the 2020s. Is my bet.
    They keep getting separatist majorities in Holyrood. I really hope this changes.
    Yes, the SNP have - very impressively - avoided the forces of political gravity, for far longer than anyone expected. When will they fall? They must fall eventually. Perhaps when Sturgeon retires, after the Salmond trial.

    Ironically, probably the worst Brexit outcome for the Nats is Britain staying in the EU.

    Because then a vote for YES is a vote for instant expulsion from the UK AND from the EU. From both main markets. From the £ and the €. The chaos and pain would be immediate, and would endure for decades.



    There'd be a shortage of champers in the UK after a 60/40 vote.
    Not in England. You over-estimate the desire in England to stay linked to the Scots, after the first indyreund me.
    To be fair to Scotland, Scotland has a gdp per capita higher than any English regions bar London and the South East, it could survive as an independent nation in a way that Wales, which is poorer than every English region bar the North East, could not.

    However I still believe the Union is better for all of us
    I agree, and I am glad that the Tories and the Lib Dems would oppose a 2nd Scots referendum.

    If Brexit has taught us one thing, it is that referendums cannot be dispensed casually.

    The Nats had one referendum, make them wait a generation for the next, as promised. This, by the way, is also a very strong argument against a 2nd EU referendum.
    Indeed, Quebec had to wait 15 years after its first referendum on independence from Canada in 1980 for a second.

    Given the Socialist Spanish PM has an election next month and polls suggest Catalan nationalists will hold the balance of power we may finally get a referendum on independence in Catalonia first anyway
    I didn’t realize you were of Catalan descent.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Byronic said:

    JBriskyindyref:

    ++++

    I'm all for a Federal UK. As has been hinted at already on this thread, the break-up of these islands is now on the cards.

    ++++

    Far too pessimistic

    There has been ONE lead for YES in over two years of polling. And that was a narrow lead of 3 points. Margin of error stuff.

    You have to go back to 2016 to see regular YES leads, and even then they were unconvincing.

    It is unremarked on here, just how bad the Brexit shitshow is for Scottish independence. Brexit proves how difficult, painful, and costly it is to break a 50 year old union of quasi sovereign nations. So: how awful, traumatic and dystopian might it be to break up a 300 year union?

    Brexit is the WORST advert for indy, even if, paradoxically, it makes indy more emotionally desirable.

    Clever YES people, like Sturgeon herself, recognise this, however reluctantly. An indy vote now would likely be lost, killing the cause for a generation or two.

    In ten years, then yes, but by then we may all be dead of overheating.

    Yeah, but you have to understand, Scotland would hold all the cards in its negotiations with rUK.
    English car manufacturers will be riding to the.... oh wait....
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 2,527
    edited September 30
    Just saw the ‘spaffed’ extract of that Joe Pike interview on C4 News. Absolute train wreck! Wouldn’t it be better to say I regret using that term/ I shouldn’t have used that term, rather than just look as shifty as he so painfully does?

    I’m beginning to come to the view that he’s not actually very good at politics.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,593
    edited September 30
    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Byronic said:

    There'd be a shortage of champers in the UK after a 60/40 vote.

    Not in England. You over-estimate the desire in England to stay linked to the Scots, after the first indyref, and Brexit. A large minority, maybe a majority of English people would quite happily say goodbye to Scotland and Edinburgh's perceived drag on the English treasury.

    I am not one of them. I am a convinced English unionist and a happy Briton, I don't want Scotland to go, but I can see the polls on English perceptions, and I can sense the mood around me.
    There's a growing sense of English identity in a fashion which Scotland and Wales have always had. There is very little left that actually fosters a British identity anymore. Probably only the olympics?
    It's the same F-ing Island as someone once famously (to me at least) stated on PB.

    We don't need to go on marches every week like the Yessers.
    no, but if there is nothing out there that fosters a united identity and there are forces out there (like the scottish parliament and many others) which are fostering different identities then the british identity will die. can the UK survive without it?
    We're Brits but we don't make a big thing out of it.

    And with that I'm off to watch the footie.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 9,147
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:
    The kindest possible spin you can put on this is that the man is an imbecile.
    Rowland or Hammond?
    Hammond obviously.

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 4,144

    rcs1000 said:

    Byronic said:

    JBriskyindyref:

    ++++

    I'm all for a Federal UK. As has been hinted at already on this thread, the break-up of these islands is now on the cards.

    ++++

    Far too pessimistic

    There has been ONE lead for YES in over two years of polling. And that was a narrow lead of 3 points. Margin of error stuff.

    You have to go back to 2016 to see regular YES leads, and even then they were unconvincing.

    It is unremarked on here, just how bad the Brexit shitshow is for Scottish independence. Brexit proves how difficult, painful, and costly it is to break a 50 year old union of quasi sovereign nations. So: how awful, traumatic and dystopian might it be to break up a 300 year union?

    Brexit is the WORST advert for indy, even if, paradoxically, it makes indy more emotionally desirable.

    Clever YES people, like Sturgeon herself, recognise this, however reluctantly. An indy vote now would likely be lost, killing the cause for a generation or two.

    In ten years, then yes, but by then we may all be dead of overheating.

    Yeah, but you have to understand, Scotland would hold all the cards in its negotiations with rUK.
    English car manufacturers will be riding to the.... oh wait....
    The English wine manufacturers would be desperate
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 2,527
    The other thing about the Pike interview is that he can’t even lie strategically. Lying is such an automatic reflex for him that he just can’t stop himself from doing it. Cf. ‘There’s no media here’ moment.
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,815

    It will be interesting to see what, if anything, changes in the Lib Dem offer to the electorate if soft centre-right voters and well-to-do constituencies in London and the South East become progressively more important to them.

    It has been suggested in some quarters that the Tories may be moving in the direction of a right-wing populist platform, consisting of social conservatism laced with elements of centre-left economics. Perhaps the Lib Dems will end up espousing the opposite? The Orange Book tendency may yet rise from the grave in tandem with the party...

    To quote Paul Gauguin:

    “Where do we come from?" "What are we?""Where are we going?”
  • I can believe this.

    As a life long Tory, I have now switched to Lib Dems.
  • eekeek Posts: 6,299
    Byronic said:



    I agree, and I am glad that the Tories and the Lib Dems would oppose a 2nd Scots referendum.

    If Brexit has taught us one thing, it is that referendums cannot be dispensed casually.

    The Nats had one referendum, make them wait a generation for the next, as promised. This, by the way, is also a very strong argument against a 2nd EU referendum.

    No it's not - the reason for a second EU referendum is to offer a Leave option and confirm that people prefer the actual version of leave (rather than their own self invented unicorn) we are implementing or remaining in the EU.
  • During the Cheadle By-Election an astute Lib Dem campaigner told me " the difference between a Lib Dem voter and a Conservative voter in Cheadle is how much they recycle. "

    What they meant was that demographicly and socioeconomically identical affluent households would be prepared to vote Lib Dem rather than Conservative over micro social issues like Gay rights, Foriegn Aid or the Enviroment. Cameron spotted this.

    Of course since then we've had The Crash, The Coalition, Nationalism etc. Things change.

    But perhaps via Brexit ( or more accurately how Brexit is changing the Conservative Party ) that Cheadle distinction is Remainian Tory areas is reasserting itself ? We'll see.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,010

    It will be interesting to see what, if anything, changes in the Lib Dem offer to the electorate if soft centre-right voters and well-to-do constituencies in London and the South East become progressively more important to them.

    It has been suggested in some quarters that the Tories may be moving in the direction of a right-wing populist platform, consisting of social conservatism laced with elements of centre-left economics. Perhaps the Lib Dems will end up espousing the opposite? The Orange Book tendency may yet rise from the grave in tandem with the party...

    We weren't dead, we were only restin'
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Just to say!

    Talking to a bloke in a Halifax in a pub. He would vote to remain! I will see what others think...
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 3,941
    TGOHF2 said:

    And how many would still vote LD when we have left by the time of the election ?

    Hard to say . It depends what they’ll put in the manifesto . Given it will be about the future relationship .

    I think re join isn’t the way to go , even as an ardent Remainer I think there’s no way back for a very long time .

    I’d vote for a party that will have a very close relationship with the EU.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 832

    I can believe this.

    As a life long Tory, I have now switched to Lib Dems.

    welcome to the club. do you need a pair of sandals or do you have your own?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 3,714
    nichomar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Byronic said:

    JBriskyindyref:

    ++++

    I'm all for a Federal UK. As has been hinted at already on this thread, the break-up of these islands is now on the cards.

    ++++

    Far too pessimistic

    There has been ONE lead for YES in over two years of polling. And that was a narrow lead of 3 points. Margin of error stuff.

    You have to go back to 2016 to see regular YES leads, and even then they were unconvincing.

    It is unremarked on here, just how bad the Brexit shitshow is for Scottish independence. Brexit proves how difficult, painful, and costly it is to break a 50 year old union of quasi sovereign nations. So: how awful, traumatic and dystopian might it be to break up a 300 year union?

    Brexit is the WORST advert for indy, even if, paradoxically, it makes indy more emotionally desirable.

    Clever YES people, like Sturgeon herself, recognise this, however reluctantly. An indy vote now would likely be lost, killing the cause for a generation or two.

    In ten years, then yes, but by then we may all be dead of overheating.

    Yeah, but you have to understand, Scotland would hold all the cards in its negotiations with rUK.
    English car manufacturers will be riding to the.... oh wait....
    The English wine manufacturers would be desperate
    Buckfast Abbey perhaps...
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 832

    Just to say!

    Talking to a bloke in a Halifax in a pub. He would vote to remain! I will see what others think...

    when he said he'd vote to remain, was that to remain in the pub?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Just saw the ‘spaffed’ extract of that Joe Pike interview on C4 News. Absolute train wreck! Wouldn’t it be better to say I regret using that term/ I shouldn’t have used that term, rather than just look as shifty as he so painfully does?

    I’m beginning to come to the view that he’s not actually very good at politics.

    BJ is hopless! Worse than Gordon Brown! He is using NHS as a political tool! Pathetic...
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 3,714
    Tabman said:

    It will be interesting to see what, if anything, changes in the Lib Dem offer to the electorate if soft centre-right voters and well-to-do constituencies in London and the South East become progressively more important to them.

    It has been suggested in some quarters that the Tories may be moving in the direction of a right-wing populist platform, consisting of social conservatism laced with elements of centre-left economics. Perhaps the Lib Dems will end up espousing the opposite? The Orange Book tendency may yet rise from the grave in tandem with the party...

    We weren't dead, we were only restin'
    Oh, that's what the Plump Pigeon of Proportional Representation is meant to be: a Norwegian Blue! Now it all makes sense.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 56,146

    He is using NHS as a political tool! Pathetic...

    No different to every PM and LoTO since time immemorial.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 521
    nichomar said:


    I didn’t realize you were of Catalan descent.

    I am (Hence my profile picture) :)
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    spudgfsh said:

    Just to say!

    Talking to a bloke in a Halifax in a pub. He would vote to remain! I will see what others think...

    when he said he'd vote to remain, was that to remain in the pub?
    In the EU.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 3,714

    During the Cheadle By-Election an astute Lib Dem campaigner told me " the difference between a Lib Dem voter and a Conservative voter in Cheadle is how much they recycle. "

    What they meant was that demographicly and socioeconomically identical affluent households would be prepared to vote Lib Dem rather than Conservative over micro social issues like Gay rights, Foriegn Aid or the Enviroment. Cameron spotted this.

    Of course since then we've had The Crash, The Coalition, Nationalism etc. Things change.

    But perhaps via Brexit ( or more accurately how Brexit is changing the Conservative Party ) that Cheadle distinction is Remainian Tory areas is reasserting itself ? We'll see.

    They've been gradually pinching council seats from the Tories around here for several years. Reckon it's Remainian ire leavened with a helping of house price refugees fleeing Cambridge.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 4,144

    nichomar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Byronic said:

    JBriskyindyref:

    ++++

    I'm all for a Federal UK. As has been hinted at already on this thread, the break-up of these islands is now on the cards.

    ++++

    Far too pessimistic

    There has been ONE lead for YES in over two years of polling. And that was a narrow lead of 3 points. Margin of error stuff.

    You have to go back to 2016 to see regular YES leads, and even then they were unconvincing.

    It is unremarked on here, just how bad the Brexit shitshow is for Scottish independence. Brexit proves how difficult, painful, and costly it is to break a 50 year old union of quasi sovereign nations. So: how awful, traumatic and dystopian might it be to break up a 300 year union?

    Brexit is the WORST advert for indy, even if, paradoxically, it makes indy more emotionally desirable.

    Clever YES people, like Sturgeon herself, recognise this, however reluctantly. An indy vote now would likely be lost, killing the cause for a generation or two.

    In ten years, then yes, but by then we may all be dead of overheating.

    Yeah, but you have to understand, Scotland would hold all the cards in its negotiations with rUK.
    English car manufacturers will be riding to the.... oh wait....
    The English wine manufacturers would be desperate
    Buckfast Abbey perhaps...
    Maybe but completley OT one of the best days out I had was a visit to teignworthy brewery and Newton Abbott races, lots of good things in the West Country.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 2,527
    edited September 30

    I can believe this.

    As a life long Tory, I have now switched to Lib Dems.

    And I’m a life long Labourite who’s switched to the LDs. Reminds me of that famous VE day picture of the Russians and Americans shaking hands in the middle of Berlin.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 5,659
    CatMan said:

    nichomar said:


    I didn’t realize you were of Catalan descent.

    I am (Hence my profile picture) :)
    Greetings sideways Northumbrian.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 4,144
    CatMan said:

    nichomar said:


    I didn’t realize you were of Catalan descent.

    I am (Hence my profile picture) :)
    👍😀
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 11,100
    spudgfsh said:

    I can believe this.

    As a life long Tory, I have now switched to Lib Dems.

    welcome to the club. do you need a pair of sandals or do you have your own?
    I'm coming from the other direction but seriously thinking of joining the LDs myself now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 16,173

    Just to say!

    Talking to a bloke in a Halifax in a pub. He would vote to remain! I will see what others think...

    How many Halifaxes are there ?
    (I’m aware of the Canadian one, but still.)

    Or did he bring his WWII bomber in with him ?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 4,144

    Tabman said:

    It will be interesting to see what, if anything, changes in the Lib Dem offer to the electorate if soft centre-right voters and well-to-do constituencies in London and the South East become progressively more important to them.

    It has been suggested in some quarters that the Tories may be moving in the direction of a right-wing populist platform, consisting of social conservatism laced with elements of centre-left economics. Perhaps the Lib Dems will end up espousing the opposite? The Orange Book tendency may yet rise from the grave in tandem with the party...

    We weren't dead, we were only restin'
    Oh, that's what the Plump Pigeon of Proportional Representation is meant to be: a Norwegian Blue! Now it all makes sense.
    We were a dead parrot never to rise from the ashes, a polygon but we need to beware the Icarus syndrome
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,970
    Somebody can check my Maths but my workings are Con L/R split 70:30,
    Con got 42.4% in 2017. So 33% of 30% is 10%. So overall 4..2% is added to the LD score. This was 7.4% in 2017, so where is the rest of the LD bounce coming from and this remainer part is the largest. Well can only be the trots.

  • tlg86 said:

    One in three CON GE2017 Remainers now say they’ll vote Lib Dem

    Is that all?

    That was my first thought. Why are two thirds sticking with The Clown?
  • Austerity update:

    Britons are spending more on a night out than at any point in the last three years, a survey suggests.

    Club and bar chain Deltic found the average person spent £70.69 on a night out in the three months to September.

    That is up 25% on the same period last year and the highest since October 2016 when the survey began.

    Deltic surveyed 2,300 people about all sorts of nights out, including trips to the cinema, restaurants, pubs and nightclubs.

    The survey found that during the three months to the end of September, 61% of people went on a night out at least once a week, up from 56.2% last year.

    Spending increased on every component of the evening - from drinks at home and transport, to entry fees, food and alcohol bought at venues.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49873533

    Possibly not the most 'scientific' of surveys but it does show that many, many people are doing very well currently.

    Or at least spending in that way.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,238
    HYUFD said:

    Opinium also has 32% of 2017 Labour Remainers now voting LD and 21% of 2017 Labour Leavers now voting Tory and 37% of 2017 LD Leavers now also voting Tory.

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-11th-september-2019-2/

    Genuine question: how many LD leavers are/were there?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 2,527

    HYUFD said:

    Opinium also has 32% of 2017 Labour Remainers now voting LD and 21% of 2017 Labour Leavers now voting Tory and 37% of 2017 LD Leavers now also voting Tory.

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-11th-september-2019-2/

    Genuine question: how many LD leavers are/were there?
    Stodge, for one?
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 832

    Somebody can check my Maths but my workings are Con L/R split 70:30,
    Con got 42.4% in 2017. So 33% of 30% is 10%. So overall 4..2% is added to the LD score. This was 7.4% in 2017, so where is the rest of the LD bounce coming from and this remainer part is the largest. Well can only be the trots.

    it doesn't take maths to work that one out. just look at the overall numbers for Labour and compare it to the last GE. They've lost anywhere between 17 and 20% in vote share. those votes are not going Tory but LD / Green / SNP / PC
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 3,714

    tlg86 said:

    One in three CON GE2017 Remainers now say they’ll vote Lib Dem

    Is that all?

    That was my first thought. Why are two thirds sticking with The Clown?
    One of the causes is habit/tribal loyalty/robot voting. The other rhymes with Veremy.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 16,850
    edited September 30

    spudgfsh said:

    Byronic said:

    There'd be a shortage of champers in the UK after a 60/40 vote.

    Not in England. You over-estimate the desire in England to stay linked to the Scots, after the first indyref, and Brexit. A large minority, maybe a majority of English people would quite happily say goodbye to Scotland and Edinburgh's perceived drag on the English treasury.

    I am not one of them. I am a convinced English unionist and a happy Briton, I don't want Scotland to go, but I can see the polls on English perceptions, and I can sense the mood around me.
    There's a growing sense of English identity in a fashion which Scotland and Wales have always had. There is very little left that actually fosters a British identity anymore. Probably only the olympics?
    It's the same F-ing Island as someone once famously (to me at least) stated on PB.

    We don't need to go on marches every week like the Yessers.
    It's the Unionists that march (sometimes several times) every week round my bit, and they seem to have a deep, unnatural attachment to a part of another island.
  • He’s a habitual liar.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 30

    During the Cheadle By-Election an astute Lib Dem campaigner told me " the difference between a Lib Dem voter and a Conservative voter in Cheadle is how much they recycle. "

    What they meant was that demographicly and socioeconomically identical affluent households would be prepared to vote Lib Dem rather than Conservative over micro social issues like Gay rights, Foriegn Aid or the Enviroment. Cameron spotted this.

    Of course since then we've had The Crash, The Coalition, Nationalism etc. Things change.

    But perhaps via Brexit ( or more accurately how Brexit is changing the Conservative Party ) that Cheadle distinction is Remainian Tory areas is reasserting itself ? We'll see.

    My mum was obsessed by recycling in the 1980s when most people hadn't heard of it. Not sure whether she's a LD supporter though.
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