Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Heading for Labour minority government?

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited October 1 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Heading for Labour minority government?

At the time of writing, the Betfair odds for a Labour minority government after the expected election are 3.5 (7-2). After the Tory conference there should be a further Tory bounce, making the odds perhaps 3-1. This is, I think, too long. Here’s why.

Read the full story here


«13456

Comments

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,026
    edited October 1
    A persuasive article. Typo in the Betfair price, and it should be 4.5 = 7/2 (which is available)?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,026
    edited October 1
    The past few days I have been snowed under with work so have not paid much attention to the news or politics but even so I'd have expected to have heard more from the Conservative Party conference; the papers are all over the place, with the Mail and Express leading on tougher prison sentences to be announced later, and nothing on Monday's proceedings.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-49887353
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 424
    We Lib Dems are not saying airily that we're aiming to win outright. We're saying it with determination because we genuinely believe we can do it. It's perfectly fine if others think we're delusional about this but, if we are delusional, we're both delusional and very determined at the same time.

    Either way, talking about propping up either Con or Lab under their present leaderships won't win us net votes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,995
    Third like Labour
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,995
    The betting advice in the article seems sensible, even if the view of Labour’s problems reads as somewhat complacent. In particular, Labour will find it difficult to campaign strongly on the referendum/Remain option given its internal divisions and without upsetting its leavers. Labour is going to spend most of the campaign desperately trying to explain to its remainers why they shouldn’t just go vote for the real Remain party(ies).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 1,955
    edited October 1
    O/T

    Has anyone perused Dominic Cumming's blog? It's not an easy reading experience, to put it mildly.

    https://dominiccummings.com
  • eggegg Posts: 414
    IanB2 said:

    The betting advice in the article seems sensible, even if the view of Labour’s problems reads as somewhat complacent. In particular, Labour will find it difficult to campaign strongly on the referendum/Remain option given its internal divisions and without upsetting its leavers. Labour is going to spend most of the campaign desperately trying to explain to its remainers why they shouldn’t just go vote for the real Remain party(ies).

    How many Labour leavers are nailed on Labour voters because they voted brexit to bring back socialism and to give a voice to forgotten rust belt of the north with two fingers to affluent London? Thinking back to the last battle for the soul of the party between Corbyn and the AOR Welsh guy whose name keeps escaping me, it gave impression a fair few leavers are active party members, so we shouldn’t think of them as floating voters.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,381
    edited October 1
    Good piece. It's on the optimistic side, but not ludicrously so.

    What makes me think that for all its difficulties the opposition parties should really be doing a GNU to settle Brexit (not just a Government of National Asking for an Extension) is that the arithmetic resulting from this fairly optimistic outcome, expected to last until Brexit is done at best, is... what they've got now. It's heads I lose, tails I win... the same thing that I've got already. So why flip the coin?
  • eggegg Posts: 414
    edited October 1

    We Lib Dems are not saying airily that we're aiming to win outright. We're saying it with determination because we genuinely believe we can do it. It's perfectly fine if others think we're delusional about this but, if we are delusional, we're both delusional and very determined at the same time.

    Either way, talking about propping up either Con or Lab under their present leaderships won't win us net votes.


    You fear your delusional? HY keeps quoting things like 37% (of 10K) without making clear that is a far smaller number than 5% (of four million!)

    Tory remainers currently saying Tory to pollsters will vote Lib Dem. just looking at posters this site, those clearly moderate Labour for years if not decades are joining Lib Dem’s.

    As to the prop up i’m Reminded of two quotes Jo will lean back on. Firstly Clegg “a vote for Lib Dem would give either the Tories a heart or Labour a head in future coalition” and then cable to his party during the 2010 coalition discussions “I’ve been fighting the Tories all my life, but we have to do this for the good of the country right now”
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,026
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Has anyone perused Dominic Cumming's blog? It's not an easy reading experience, to put it mildly.

    https://dominiccummings.com

    People are only mildly exaggerating when they talk about Cummings' 75,000-word blog posts.
  • eggegg Posts: 414

    Good piece. It's on the optimistic side, but not ludicrously so.

    What makes me think that for all its difficulties the opposition parties should really be doing a GNU to settle Brexit (not just a Government of National Asking for an Extension) is that the arithmetic resulting from this fairly optimistic outcome, expected to last until Brexit is done at best, is... what they've got now. It's heads I lose, tails I win... the same thing that I've got already. So why flip the coin?

    You are saying if they put a gnu together, it won’t need to go to the polls till 2022?

    Others are saying the instability of such a thing means it doesn’t remotely get off the ground in the first place.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,381
    egg said:


    You are saying if they put a gnu together, it won’t need to go to the polls till 2022?

    Others are saying the instability of such a thing means it doesn’t remotely get off the ground in the first place.

    No, I'm saying they do the GNU for the 6 months it takes them to pass the WA subject to a referendum and have the referendum, and either leave the EU or cancel Brexit. Then Labour can have a normal election campaign about hospitals or whatever while the Tories (presumably) yell at a weary populus, "no, not *that* kind of brexit" or "the second referendum doesn't count, give us 5 more years of psychodrama while we implement the first one, I know the first three Prime Ministers couldn't get it done but fourth time lucky".

    The Tory message is "Get Brexit done", and it's a good message, so get Brexit done.

    I'm sure it's true that it's hard to keep this thing together long enough for it to happen, but the same is true of the Labour minority government described here that takes over and ends up in the exact same situation, *but only if everything goes right*.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,026
    egg said:

    Good piece. It's on the optimistic side, but not ludicrously so.

    What makes me think that for all its difficulties the opposition parties should really be doing a GNU to settle Brexit (not just a Government of National Asking for an Extension) is that the arithmetic resulting from this fairly optimistic outcome, expected to last until Brexit is done at best, is... what they've got now. It's heads I lose, tails I win... the same thing that I've got already. So why flip the coin?

    You are saying if they put a gnu together, it won’t need to go to the polls till 2022?

    Others are saying the instability of such a thing means it doesn’t remotely get off the ground in the first place.
    There won't be a GNU. There could be a short-term Labour minority government for extension and an election, under purdah terms, and lasting around two months including the five weeks of an election campaign mandated by FTPA when purdah would apply in any case. There was a thread from @Richard_Nabavi on this two back.
  • eggegg Posts: 414
    Is there a sex tape on Jenn’s laptop?

    You bet!

    Exclusive video and analysis on PB.com!

    https://www.reddit.com/r/videos/comments/54tyf1/hungry_polar_bear_surprises_a_seal_a_beautiful/
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,381


    There won't be a GNU. There could be a short-term Labour minority government for extension and an election, under purdah terms, and lasting around two months including the five weeks of an election campaign mandated by FTPA when purdah would apply in any case. There was a thread from @Richard_Nabavi on this two back.

    Richard couldn't see how to divide up the jobs but we solved that problem. (Select Committee chairs.)

    The problem isn't that, it's:
    1) Getting Corbyn to agree to move over, or getting various unlikely people to support Corbyn
    2) Agreeing on a Brexit

    But these are the exact same problems you'd have if you fought an election, as outlined above, and it went really well.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,026


    There won't be a GNU. There could be a short-term Labour minority government for extension and an election, under purdah terms, and lasting around two months including the five weeks of an election campaign mandated by FTPA when purdah would apply in any case. There was a thread from @Richard_Nabavi on this two back.

    Richard couldn't see how to divide up the jobs but we solved that problem. (Select Committee chairs.)

    The problem isn't that, it's:
    1) Getting Corbyn to agree to move over, or getting various unlikely people to support Corbyn
    2) Agreeing on a Brexit

    But these are the exact same problems you'd have if you fought an election, as outlined above, and it went really well.
    People aren't the problem. Policy is, and especially about not-Brexit. By the time you'd agreed what would be the coalition's policy on education or law and order, whether to follow Tory cuts or the Tory magic money tree, we'd have crashed out of the EU already.

    A minority Labour government would not need any policies, as purdah would prevent action anyway, and can be formed without the LibDems needing to break Jo Swinson's pledge not to support Jeremy Corbyn.
  • Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Has anyone perused Dominic Cumming's blog? It's not an easy reading experience, to put it mildly.

    https://dominiccummings.com

    No easy reading, indeed.
    I guess, in order to understand what he writes you would have to be at least as smart as he is.
    If only someone as smart as him could be put in charge of the Brexit process and/or running your country, that might work out really, really well.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,381
    edited October 1


    People aren't the problem. Policy is, and especially about not-Brexit. By the time you'd agreed what would be the coalition's policy on education or law and order, whether to follow Tory cuts or the Tory magic money tree, we'd have crashed out of the EU already.

    The Tory magic money tree, shorely?

    But no need to agree any of that before somebody forms a government. Pick your person, they pick the cabinet and ask for their extension, now you've got time to haggle. If the haggling runs into a dead end then too bad, it's GE time. If they can make it work, everybody except the Tories wins.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,026


    People aren't the problem. Policy is, and especially about not-Brexit. By the time you'd agreed what would be the coalition's policy on education or law and order, whether to follow Tory cuts or the Tory magic money tree, we'd have crashed out of the EU already.

    The Tory magic money tree, shorely?

    But no need to agree any of that before somebody forms a government. Pick your person, they pick the cabinet and ask for their extension, now you've got time to haggle. If the haggling runs into a dead end then too bad, it's GE time. If they can make it work, everybody except the Tories wins.
    I doubt you could even get an agreement to VONC Boris in time, if you dress it up as coalition-formation.

    The point is not what is desirable, where you could be right, but what is practicable. Bookies will pay out on what will have happened, not what should have happened.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,456
    Nice thread header - it's very much what I want to believe...

    I've actually built a simple model looking at the impact of tactical voting between the three main parties, which has come up with a few surprising results.

    1. Lab -> LD tactical voting, actually makes very little difference. On current polling, the LDs are going to win all their marginal seats with the Tories anyway.
    2. LD -> Lab tactical voting, makes quite a big difference.
    3. Brexit -> Tory tactical voting makes a huge difference.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,223
    'History abounds with strange bedfellows, and Corbyn/Swinson/Sturgeon must be up there among the most exotic. I doubt if it would last very long – long enough to see Brexit settled, and not very much more "

    Brexit settled? How exactly is it going to be settled by this group of people.

    People on the sovereignty wing aren't going to just shrug and say fair enough if we get revoke versus softest possible brexit referendum.

    Brexit isn't going away, "revoke, remain, rebuild" is a fantasy that just leads to a populist "stab in the back" mythology.

    Probably the only way to settle Brexit, is to have a no deal and for it to fail.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,704
    I note that Martin Baxter has started publishing predictions for N Ireland. He used to simply publish “NI 18”, like nearly everyone else. Does anybody know:

    A. When did Baxter start doing this?
    B. What on earth is he basing these NI predictions on?

    Latest Electoral Calculus prediction:

    Con 331 (+13)
    Lab 213 (-49)
    SNP 51 (+16)
    LD 33 (+21)
    DUP 9 (-1)
    SF 7 (nc)
    PC 3 (-1)
    All 1 (+1)
    Grn 1 (nc)
    NI oth 1 (nc)
    Bxp 0 (nc)
    UKIP 0 (nc)

    Con Maj 12 seats
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,704

    'History abounds with strange bedfellows, and Corbyn/Swinson/Sturgeon must be up there among the most exotic. I doubt if it would last very long – long enough to see Brexit settled, and not very much more "

    Brexit settled? How exactly is it going to be settled by this group of people.

    People on the sovereignty wing aren't going to just shrug and say fair enough if we get revoke versus softest possible brexit referendum.

    Brexit isn't going away, "revoke, remain, rebuild" is a fantasy that just leads to a populist "stab in the back" mythology.

    Probably the only way to settle Brexit, is to have a no deal and for it to fail.

    This is why Brexit is unresolvable in England.

    Scotland, Wales and NI have routes out of the dystopian nightmare, but England is stuck in the mire for at least a generation.

    David Cameron. Some guy!
  • eekeek Posts: 5,791
    edited October 1
    rkrkrk said:

    Nice thread header - it's very much what I want to believe...

    I've actually built a simple model looking at the impact of tactical voting between the three main parties, which has come up with a few surprising results.

    1. Lab -> LD tactical voting, actually makes very little difference. On current polling, the LDs are going to win all their marginal seats with the Tories anyway.
    2. LD -> Lab tactical voting, makes quite a big difference.
    3. Brexit -> Tory tactical voting makes a huge difference.

    3 is why not allowing Boris an early election was essential - while I doubt it would have the impact others around here expect (personally I lot of the Brexit vote up north could never, ever vote Tory) it would have swung a few seats.

    As any election will now be after October 31st I think Boris's chances of a swing from Brexit to Tory has gone forever.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418
    edited October 1

    I note that Martin Baxter has started publishing predictions for N Ireland. He used to simply publish “NI 18”, like nearly everyone else. Does anybody know:

    A. When did Baxter start doing this?
    B. What on earth is he basing these NI predictions on?

    Latest Electoral Calculus prediction:

    Con 331 (+13)
    Lab 213 (-49)
    SNP 51 (+16)
    LD 33 (+21)
    DUP 9 (-1)
    SF 7 (nc)
    PC 3 (-1)
    All 1 (+1)
    Grn 1 (nc)
    NI oth 1 (nc)
    Bxp 0 (nc)
    UKIP 0 (nc)

    Con Maj 12 seats

    So there will be plenty of seats changing hands, but the net effect is everybody feasts on Labour.

    Now tell me again, Mr Corbyn, your reasons for changing your mind on having an election?
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,223

    'History abounds with strange bedfellows, and Corbyn/Swinson/Sturgeon must be up there among the most exotic. I doubt if it would last very long – long enough to see Brexit settled, and not very much more "

    Brexit settled? How exactly is it going to be settled by this group of people.

    People on the sovereignty wing aren't going to just shrug and say fair enough if we get revoke versus softest possible brexit referendum.

    Brexit isn't going away, "revoke, remain, rebuild" is a fantasy that just leads to a populist "stab in the back" mythology.

    Probably the only way to settle Brexit, is to have a no deal and for it to fail.

    This is why Brexit is unresolvable in England.

    Scotland, Wales and NI have routes out of the dystopian nightmare, but England is stuck in the mire for at least a generation.

    David Cameron. Some guy!
    I sort of agree. A United Ireland should work easily enough,. The birth pains would be bloody though.

    Scotland is tricky especially if it wishes to join the EU, protecting the EU single market will require a meaningful border on the Tweed. The last few years has shown it's not a easy thing to achieve. It's difficult to see how it will work.

    Wales is hitched to England forever, no way out of it for them.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,762
    Why it is when jezza does meet the jewish community, they always seem to be very interesting folk..

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/outrage-over-corbyn-s-rosh-hashanah-video-featuring-hamas-kaddish-activist-1.489412
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307

    'History abounds with strange bedfellows, and Corbyn/Swinson/Sturgeon must be up there among the most exotic. I doubt if it would last very long – long enough to see Brexit settled, and not very much more "

    Brexit settled? How exactly is it going to be settled by this group of people.

    People on the sovereignty wing aren't going to just shrug and say fair enough if we get revoke versus softest possible brexit referendum.

    Brexit isn't going away, "revoke, remain, rebuild" is a fantasy that just leads to a populist "stab in the back" mythology.

    Probably the only way to settle Brexit, is to have a no deal and for it to fail.

    This is why Brexit is unresolvable in England.

    Scotland, Wales and NI have routes out of the dystopian nightmare, but England is stuck in the mire for at least a generation.

    David Cameron. Some guy!
    I sort of agree. A United Ireland should work easily enough,. The birth pains would be bloody though.

    Scotland is tricky especially if it wishes to join the EU, protecting the EU single market will require a meaningful border on the Tweed. The last few years has shown it's not a easy thing to achieve. It's difficult to see how it will work.

    Wales is hitched to England forever, no way out of it for them.
    Scotland’s border with England is a lot easier to set up than Northern Ireland’s border with Ireland. It’s a lot shorter with far fewer crossings.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,026

    Why it is when jezza does meet the jewish community, they always seem to be very interesting folk..

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/outrage-over-corbyn-s-rosh-hashanah-video-featuring-hamas-kaddish-activist-1.489412

    The wrong sort of Jews?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,481
    Swinson has ruled out an arrangement with Corbyn under any circumstances.

    I’m afraid I’m unconvinced by the rest of the tips. We could quote credibly get a loose Labour minority without Corbyn, whilst a Labour majority Government with him is out of the question.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,762

    Why it is when jezza does meet the jewish community, they always seem to be very interesting folk..

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/outrage-over-corbyn-s-rosh-hashanah-video-featuring-hamas-kaddish-activist-1.489412

    The wrong sort of Jews?
    Its amazing, he goes into a greengrocers for a photoshoot and the person he gets shown around by is some anti-zionist friends of hamas extremist.
  • eekeek Posts: 5,791

    Swinson has ruled out an arrangement with Corbyn under any circumstances.

    I’m afraid I’m unconvinced by the rest of the tips. We could quote credibly get a loose Labour minority without Corbyn, whilst a Labour majority Government with him is out of the question.

    See the post yesterday about the Labour Party rules regarding who can be PM - it has to be the party leader (i.e. Corbyn) if it's a Labour Government.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307
    On topic, it’s a very decent bet indeed. Labour can be going backwards quite fast and the bet can still win.

    So long as Con + Brexit + DUP is under 305, it’s by far the most likely result. Given where that trio starts from and current political volatility, that is significantly more likely than those odds suggest.
  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 432
    eek said:

    Swinson has ruled out an arrangement with Corbyn under any circumstances.

    I’m afraid I’m unconvinced by the rest of the tips. We could quote credibly get a loose Labour minority without Corbyn, whilst a Labour majority Government with him is out of the question.

    See the post yesterday about the Labour Party rules regarding who can be PM - it has to be the party leader (i.e. Corbyn) if it's a Labour Government.
    It really doesn't. Complete misreading of the rules.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,026
    edited October 1

    Swinson has ruled out an arrangement with Corbyn under any circumstances.

    I’m afraid I’m unconvinced by the rest of the tips. We could quote credibly get a loose Labour minority without Corbyn, whilst a Labour majority Government with him is out of the question.

    Let us take Jo Swinson at her word: there will be no formal arrangement with Corbyn. Can there be a minority Labour government? Yes. By definition, it will not be a Labour-LibDem coalition. Swinson seems to rule out confidence and supply. There can still be a minority Labour government in those circumstances; there was in the 1970s. And if, as expected, Corbyn steps down after a year or two, there could be a more formal arrangement under his successor.

    And if Labour has a majority, it will not need an agreement with the LibDems.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,223

    'History abounds with strange bedfellows, and Corbyn/Swinson/Sturgeon must be up there among the most exotic. I doubt if it would last very long – long enough to see Brexit settled, and not very much more "

    Brexit settled? How exactly is it going to be settled by this group of people.

    People on the sovereignty wing aren't going to just shrug and say fair enough if we get revoke versus softest possible brexit referendum.

    Brexit isn't going away, "revoke, remain, rebuild" is a fantasy that just leads to a populist "stab in the back" mythology.

    Probably the only way to settle Brexit, is to have a no deal and for it to fail.

    This is why Brexit is unresolvable in England.

    Scotland, Wales and NI have routes out of the dystopian nightmare, but England is stuck in the mire for at least a generation.

    David Cameron. Some guy!
    I sort of agree. A United Ireland should work easily enough,. The birth pains would be bloody though.

    Scotland is tricky especially if it wishes to join the EU, protecting the EU single market will require a meaningful border on the Tweed. The last few years has shown it's not a easy thing to achieve. It's difficult to see how it will work.

    Wales is hitched to England forever, no way out of it for them.
    Scotland’s border with England is a lot easier to set up than Northern Ireland’s border with Ireland. It’s a lot shorter with far fewer crossings.
    Accepting that, It still requires placing a border where there hasn't been one for 300+ years and disruption to huge volumes of trade and movement of people.

    Ultimately I don't see the Scottish people taking the step, in many ways independce was more viable in 2014 than today.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307
    Ignore Jolyon Maugham’s comment and read the article. It seems that ministers accept that they can’t ignore or get round the Benn Act (see the unattributed quotes at the end of the piece):

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,481
    eek said:

    Swinson has ruled out an arrangement with Corbyn under any circumstances.

    I’m afraid I’m unconvinced by the rest of the tips. We could quote credibly get a loose Labour minority without Corbyn, whilst a Labour majority Government with him is out of the question.

    See the post yesterday about the Labour Party rules regarding who can be PM - it has to be the party leader (i.e. Corbyn) if it's a Labour Government.
    That depends on just how long Corbyn sticks around.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,481

    'History abounds with strange bedfellows, and Corbyn/Swinson/Sturgeon must be up there among the most exotic. I doubt if it would last very long – long enough to see Brexit settled, and not very much more "

    Brexit settled? How exactly is it going to be settled by this group of people.

    People on the sovereignty wing aren't going to just shrug and say fair enough if we get revoke versus softest possible brexit referendum.

    Brexit isn't going away, "revoke, remain, rebuild" is a fantasy that just leads to a populist "stab in the back" mythology.

    Probably the only way to settle Brexit, is to have a no deal and for it to fail.

    This is why Brexit is unresolvable in England.

    Scotland, Wales and NI have routes out of the dystopian nightmare, but England is stuck in the mire for at least a generation.

    David Cameron. Some guy!
    I sort of agree. A United Ireland should work easily enough,. The birth pains would be bloody though.

    Scotland is tricky especially if it wishes to join the EU, protecting the EU single market will require a meaningful border on the Tweed. The last few years has shown it's not a easy thing to achieve. It's difficult to see how it will work.

    Wales is hitched to England forever, no way out of it for them.
    Scotland’s border with England is a lot easier to set up than Northern Ireland’s border with Ireland. It’s a lot shorter with far fewer crossings.
    But, their respective economies are far more integrated.

    The quantity of border crossings is only a small vector in the overall problem.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,762
    edited October 1
    Its the mirror, so obvious warning....

    Jennifer Arcuri’s laptop containing personal details from her time with Boris Johnson has been stolen. The American former model’s computer was snatched in Britain in the past 10 days.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnsons-lover-petrified-after-20376100

    You would think a security expert would encrypt their hard drive...
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 7,418
    I disagree with Nick about Portsmouth South.
    The LibDems could win it back, it looks to me like a three way marginal and the betting odss that I've seen make it more likely to be Tory or LibDem rather than Labour that wins.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418
    Scott_P said:
    The likeliest route to Brexit has always been that something very close to May's Deal would be passed by Boris.

    It requires that there are no more extensions granted by the EU. But they won't do that, you cry. Yes they will. If in the background just one is determined to say no more extensions - say Hungary, with some coaching from Cummins - they will all agree to no more extensions, so as to keep their fabled unity.

    Then it it is down to Parliament - Deal or No Deal, by 31st October. The Remainers have shot themselves in the foot by saying - nay, legislating - that No Deal is an unacceptable outcome. Boris knows they have to approve a deal.

    He might get some twiddly bits. The political declaration might get rewritten on a late-night napkin. But otherwise it will still be May's shit deal.

    Some PMs might feel they should show at least a tinge of embarrassment at having got nowhere with negotiating against the EU. Boris just says "I have done what the previous PM could not - delivered Brexit through the House, in the teeth of the most ferocious and personal attacks from an Establishment utterly determined to use every tool to prevent this outcome. But done it I have. I gave you my word I would - or die in a ditch. Well, you can put another headstone by that ditch. One that says UK's EU membership...."

    And the nation goes "thank fuck for that...."
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,631


    I guess, in order to understand what he writes you would have to be at least as smart as he is.

    It might help I suppose, but fortunately there are very few people out there with the intellect of a boiled cabbage so it seems unlikely we can test that hypothesis.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 469
    The problem is that Corbyn is toxic waste on the door step. He is even more unpopular than Johnson, at least for the moment. Though even a more unpopular Johnson would just give the Tweedledee/Tweedledum narrative new life.

    Unless Corbyn goes, the voters will not believe that Labour is getting serious. Swinson has a winning card: making Corbyn the issue sends support her way by reminding them that he is an unrepentant nut job and she will oppose him regardless... it also makes Labour more likely to keep him, since they can not climb down, and that's a short run win for the Lib Dems too.

    For the national interest, the quicker Corbyn goes, the better.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,481

    Swinson has ruled out an arrangement with Corbyn under any circumstances.

    I’m afraid I’m unconvinced by the rest of the tips. We could quote credibly get a loose Labour minority without Corbyn, whilst a Labour majority Government with him is out of the question.

    Let us take Jo Swinson at her word: there will be no formal arrangement with Corbyn. Can there be a minority Labour government? Yes. By definition, it will not be a Labour-LibDem coalition. Swinson seems to rule out confidence and supply. There can still be a minority Labour government in those circumstances; there was in the 1970s. And if, as expected, Corbyn steps down after a year or two, there could be a more formal arrangement under his successor.

    And if Labour has a majority, it will not need an agreement with the LibDems.
    Labour has only 246 MPs taking its whip. To put that into context: that’s only 36 MPs more than David Cameron as LOTO went into the 2010GE with on the new boundaries. Remember: Labour won a slim majority in the October 1974GE and only slipped into a minority Government thereafter by attrition, and even then only in single figures.

    Such a minority Government today couldn’t be formed unless there were arrangements with a number of other parties for it to govern. It’s just way too short.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307

    Scott_P said:
    The likeliest route to Brexit has always been that something very close to May's Deal would be passed by Boris.

    It requires that there are no more extensions granted by the EU. But they won't do that, you cry. Yes they will. If in the background just one is determined to say no more extensions - say Hungary, with some coaching from Cummins - they will all agree to no more extensions, so as to keep their fabled unity.

    Then it it is down to Parliament - Deal or No Deal, by 31st October. The Remainers have shot themselves in the foot by saying - nay, legislating - that No Deal is an unacceptable outcome. Boris knows they have to approve a deal.

    He might get some twiddly bits. The political declaration might get rewritten on a late-night napkin. But otherwise it will still be May's shit deal.

    Some PMs might feel they should show at least a tinge of embarrassment at having got nowhere with negotiating against the EU. Boris just says "I have done what the previous PM could not - delivered Brexit through the House, in the teeth of the most ferocious and personal attacks from an Establishment utterly determined to use every tool to prevent this outcome. But done it I have. I gave you my word I would - or die in a ditch. Well, you can put another headstone by that ditch. One that says UK's EU membership...."

    And the nation goes "thank fuck for that...."
    The idea that Viktor Orban is going to be susceptible to coaching from anyone is laughable. He’s got more brains than Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings put together.

    Whatever he does will be firmly in his own interests. I can’t imagine what the current British government could offer him that would make him malleable.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 2,093

    Swinson has ruled out an arrangement with Corbyn under any circumstances.

    I’m afraid I’m unconvinced by the rest of the tips. We could quote credibly get a loose Labour minority without Corbyn, whilst a Labour majority Government with him is out of the question.

    We have a minority Tory government. Swinson has nothing to do with it. Why cant there be the same with Labour post an election?

    No particular view on if the tip is value or not but Swinson not wanting a formal link between the two parties isnt a huge obstacle imo.
  • We're into voodoo politics territory. All sides are establishing rock hard immobile. Johnson - brexit at all costs, won't delay despite the law, Corbyn - neutral on Brexit, wants delay but needs Johnson to do it. Swinson - no Brexit, broad church so can't work with either Labour or Tory.

    Someone will give. Because entertaining though the stalemate is we have a hard deadline on Brexit and an increasing risk that the political terrorism we're starting to see gains a form foothold.

    My assessment? Johnson happy to be removed from office by parliament (nice set up for his Election campaign), Corbyn doesn't want to delay either and wants an election. So GNU suits both. The real entertainment will be when the GNU (quite properly) points out that we are only half way through this parliament and proceeds to embark on a referendum and some constitutional reforms first...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 2,093

    Scott_P said:
    The likeliest route to Brexit has always been that something very close to May's Deal would be passed by Boris.

    It requires that there are no more extensions granted by the EU. But they won't do that, you cry. Yes they will. If in the background just one is determined to say no more extensions - say Hungary, with some coaching from Cummins - they will all agree to no more extensions, so as to keep their fabled unity.

    Then it it is down to Parliament - Deal or No Deal, by 31st October. The Remainers have shot themselves in the foot by saying - nay, legislating - that No Deal is an unacceptable outcome. Boris knows they have to approve a deal.

    He might get some twiddly bits. The political declaration might get rewritten on a late-night napkin. But otherwise it will still be May's shit deal.

    Some PMs might feel they should show at least a tinge of embarrassment at having got nowhere with negotiating against the EU. Boris just says "I have done what the previous PM could not - delivered Brexit through the House, in the teeth of the most ferocious and personal attacks from an Establishment utterly determined to use every tool to prevent this outcome. But done it I have. I gave you my word I would - or die in a ditch. Well, you can put another headstone by that ditch. One that says UK's EU membership...."

    And the nation goes "thank fuck for that...."
    If Boris wanted Mays deal, all he had to do was cheerlead for it last year and show loyalty to his PM and cabinet. What has the last year of further division across the country, not to mention the tory party, been for if that is the outcome?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,035

    'History abounds with strange bedfellows, and Corbyn/Swinson/Sturgeon must be up there among the most exotic. I doubt if it would last very long – long enough to see Brexit settled, and not very much more "

    Brexit settled? How exactly is it going to be settled by this group of people.

    People on the sovereignty wing aren't going to just shrug and say fair enough if we get revoke versus softest possible brexit referendum.

    Brexit isn't going away, "revoke, remain, rebuild" is a fantasy that just leads to a populist "stab in the back" mythology.

    Probably the only way to settle Brexit, is to have a no deal and for it to fail.

    This is why Brexit is unresolvable in England.

    Scotland, Wales and NI have routes out of the dystopian nightmare, but England is stuck in the mire for at least a generation.

    David Cameron. Some guy!
    I sort of agree. A United Ireland should work easily enough,. The birth pains would be bloody though.

    Scotland is tricky especially if it wishes to join the EU, protecting the EU single market will require a meaningful border on the Tweed. The last few years has shown it's not a easy thing to achieve. It's difficult to see how it will work.

    Wales is hitched to England forever, no way out of it for them.
    Scotland’s border with England is a lot easier to set up than Northern Ireland’s border with Ireland. It’s a lot shorter with far fewer crossings.
    It is also much less contentious geographically, apart from Berwick.

    To be equivalent to the Irish border, England would have to annex the Scottish Borders and put the border with Indy Scotland at the Antonine wall.
  • eekeek Posts: 5,791

    Scott_P said:
    The likeliest route to Brexit has always been that something very close to May's Deal would be passed by Boris.

    It requires that there are no more extensions granted by the EU. But they won't do that, you cry. Yes they will. If in the background just one is determined to say no more extensions - say Hungary, with some coaching from Cummins - they will all agree to no more extensions, so as to keep their fabled unity.

    Then it it is down to Parliament - Deal or No Deal, by 31st October. The Remainers have shot themselves in the foot by saying - nay, legislating - that No Deal is an unacceptable outcome. Boris knows they have to approve a deal.

    He might get some twiddly bits. The political declaration might get rewritten on a late-night napkin. But otherwise it will still be May's shit deal.

    Some PMs might feel they should show at least a tinge of embarrassment at having got nowhere with negotiating against the EU. Boris just says "I have done what the previous PM could not - delivered Brexit through the House, in the teeth of the most ferocious and personal attacks from an Establishment utterly determined to use every tool to prevent this outcome. But done it I have. I gave you my word I would - or die in a ditch. Well, you can put another headstone by that ditch. One that says UK's EU membership...."

    And the nation goes "thank fuck for that...."
    The idea that Viktor Orban is going to be susceptible to coaching from anyone is laughable. He’s got more brains than Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings put together.

    Whatever he does will be firmly in his own interests. I can’t imagine what the current British government could offer him that would make him malleable.
    Once they pick random eastern European leaders as the veto option you know they really are clutching at straws. The EU won't like it but they can't get rid of us.

    My only question is will the EU insist on a referendum to resolve the issue or accept that in 2051 we will be asking for another 6 month extension as the formal beginning of that (and every previous) leaders summit.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,339
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Above, do recall that Boris Johnson is an egocentric imbecile.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418

    Scott_P said:
    The likeliest route to Brexit has always been that something very close to May's Deal would be passed by Boris.

    It requires that there are no more extensions granted by the EU. But they won't do that, you cry. Yes they will. If in the background just one is determined to say no more extensions - say Hungary, with some coaching from Cummins - they will all agree to no more extensions, so as to keep their fabled unity.

    Then it it is down to Parliament - Deal or No Deal, by 31st October. The Remainers have shot themselves in the foot by saying - nay, legislating - that No Deal is an unacceptable outcome. Boris knows they have to approve a deal.

    He might get some twiddly bits. The political declaration might get rewritten on a late-night napkin. But otherwise it will still be May's shit deal.

    Some PMs might feel they should show at least a tinge of embarrassment at having got nowhere with negotiating against the EU. Boris just says "I have done what the previous PM could not - delivered Brexit through the House, in the teeth of the most ferocious and personal attacks from an Establishment utterly determined to use every tool to prevent this outcome. But done it I have. I gave you my word I would - or die in a ditch. Well, you can put another headstone by that ditch. One that says UK's EU membership...."

    And the nation goes "thank fuck for that...."
    If Boris wanted Mays deal, all he had to do was cheerlead for it last year and show loyalty to his PM and cabinet. What has the last year of further division across the country, not to mention the tory party, been for if that is the outcome?
    The numbers weren't there.

    He did vote for May's Deal, remember. But even in the mind-bogglingly unlikely scenario that all his colleagues had voted for it - the Wollastons's, the Grieve's, the Soubry's et al - the DUP were set against it. Back then, it failed. Now it passes. That is what this past year has been about.

    Just happy circumstances that it replaced May with Boris as PM.

    It is also a happy circumstance that the Europhile Headbanger wing has been self-excised from the Conservative Party. Much, much easier to govern now.
  • eekeek Posts: 5,791

    Scott_P said:
    The likeliest route to Brexit has always been that something very close to May's Deal would be passed by Boris.

    It requires that there are no more extensions granted by the EU. But they won't do that, you cry. Yes they will. If in the background just one is determined to say no more extensions - say Hungary, with some coaching from Cummins - they will all agree to no more extensions, so as to keep their fabled unity.

    Then it it is down to Parliament - Deal or No Deal, by 31st October. The Remainers have shot themselves in the foot by saying - nay, legislating - that No Deal is an unacceptable outcome. Boris knows they have to approve a deal.

    He might get some twiddly bits. The political declaration might get rewritten on a late-night napkin. But otherwise it will still be May's shit deal.

    Some PMs might feel they should show at least a tinge of embarrassment at having got nowhere with negotiating against the EU. Boris just says "I have done what the previous PM could not - delivered Brexit through the House, in the teeth of the most ferocious and personal attacks from an Establishment utterly determined to use every tool to prevent this outcome. But done it I have. I gave you my word I would - or die in a ditch. Well, you can put another headstone by that ditch. One that says UK's EU membership...."

    And the nation goes "thank fuck for that...."
    If Boris wanted Mays deal, all he had to do was cheerlead for it last year and show loyalty to his PM and cabinet. What has the last year of further division across the country, not to mention the tory party, been for if that is the outcome?
    Boris doesn't want May's deal - he wanted to be PM.

    May's deal is however the only thing he has and his cackhanded plans since then haven't changed the deal from May's original (and not that bad) version.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 50,888

    Much, much easier to govern now.

    Narrator: The Government has lost every vote since BoZo took over...
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 1,343

    Scott_P said:
    The likeliest route to Brexit has always been that something very close to May's Deal would be passed by Boris.

    It requires that there are no more extensions granted by the EU. But they won't do that, you cry. Yes they will. If in the background just one is determined to say no more extensions - say Hungary, with some coaching from Cummins - they will all agree to no more extensions, so as to keep their fabled unity.

    Then it it is down to Parliament - Deal or No Deal, by 31st October. The Remainers have shot themselves in the foot by saying - nay, legislating - that No Deal is an unacceptable outcome. Boris knows they have to approve a deal.

    He might get some twiddly bits. The political declaration might get rewritten on a late-night napkin. But otherwise it will still be May's shit deal.

    Some PMs might feel they should show at least a tinge of embarrassment at having got nowhere with negotiating against the EU. Boris just says "I have done what the previous PM could not - delivered Brexit through the House, in the teeth of the most ferocious and personal attacks from an Establishment utterly determined to use every tool to prevent this outcome. But done it I have. I gave you my word I would - or die in a ditch. Well, you can put another headstone by that ditch. One that says UK's EU membership...."

    And the nation goes "thank fuck for that...."
    Either May's deal is good enough or it is unnaceptable, regardless of whether the date is 23rd July or 30th October. If it was unacceptable on 23rd July, then it is a scandal to force it on the UK on 30th October. If it was acceptable on 23rd July then why has the government not put it to the house and approved by both houses?

    The policy of running down the clock to force a decision is the action of a bully and not of someone who wants the best for his country.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,957
    Foxy said:

    'History abounds with strange bedfellows, and Corbyn/Swinson/Sturgeon must be up there among the most exotic. I doubt if it would last very long – long enough to see Brexit settled, and not very much more "

    Brexit settled? How exactly is it going to be settled by this group of people.

    People on the sovereignty wing aren't going to just shrug and say fair enough if we get revoke versus softest possible brexit referendum.

    Brexit isn't going away, "revoke, remain, rebuild" is a fantasy that just leads to a populist "stab in the back" mythology.

    Probably the only way to settle Brexit, is to have a no deal and for it to fail.

    This is why Brexit is unresolvable in England.

    Scotland, Wales and NI have routes out of the dystopian nightmare, but England is stuck in the mire for at least a generation.

    David Cameron. Some guy!
    I sort of agree. A United Ireland should work easily enough,. The birth pains would be bloody though.

    Scotland is tricky especially if it wishes to join the EU, protecting the EU single market will require a meaningful border on the Tweed. The last few years has shown it's not a easy thing to achieve. It's difficult to see how it will work.

    Wales is hitched to England forever, no way out of it for them.
    Scotland’s border with England is a lot easier to set up than Northern Ireland’s border with Ireland. It’s a lot shorter with far fewer crossings.
    It is also much less contentious geographically, apart from Berwick.

    To be equivalent to the Irish border, England would have to annex the Scottish Borders and put the border with Indy Scotland at the Antonine wall.
    @HYUFD has suggested something like that before to be fair.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,481

    Swinson has ruled out an arrangement with Corbyn under any circumstances.

    I’m afraid I’m unconvinced by the rest of the tips. We could quote credibly get a loose Labour minority without Corbyn, whilst a Labour majority Government with him is out of the question.

    We have a minority Tory government. Swinson has nothing to do with it. Why cant there be the same with Labour post an election?

    No particular view on if the tip is value or not but Swinson not wanting a formal link between the two parties isnt a huge obstacle imo.
    That minority Tory government had a bare working majority of one (with the DUP) until just a few weeks ago, when Boris decided to soil his own bed. It hasn’t won any votes since and might only last a few more weeks.

    I’m afraid I don’t see the evidence that Labour will improve its position in any GE to a point where a minority Labour administration comes in firing range. It’d have to be very near 322 MPs with the SNP (let’s say PC and Greens prop it up with at least 45 SNP MPs) so it would need at least 270 MPs to be able to recommend a new PM to the Queen, and would be very shaky at that.

    It’s possible but not something I’m tempted by at current odds.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 15
    We should consider the possibility that the main outcome of the next election is... another election.

    In the reasonably likely outcome that Labour loses seats but the Conservatives fall short of a majority (even with the DUP), then it is quite likely that there will be no PM with the confidence of the House:

    1) Labour. The Lib Dems may demand a different compromise Labour MP is made PM to have their support - which would not be entirely unreasonable in the scenario where Corbyn achieved Labour's worst result in decades. It is also likely that Corbyn would refuse this request and so no Labour government can be formed that can survive a confidence vote.

    2) Conservatives. There is almost zero chance of the Lib Dems supporting a Conservative government that is imitating the Brexit party. It wouldn't even matter if Johnson stepped aside; there simply isn't anyone moderate enough left on the front benches to win Lib Dem support given the main issue of the day.

    Which means a second election in 2020 is quite possible. The key difference will be that lots of new marginals will have been created in the aftermath of the next election.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,631

    The idea that Viktor Orban is going to be susceptible to coaching from anyone is laughable. He’s got more brains than Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings put together.

    He could have that and still be thicker than a yard of lard, of course.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 1,343

    Ignore Jolyon Maugham’s comment and read the article. It seems that ministers accept that they can’t ignore or get round the Benn Act (see the unattributed quotes at the end of the piece):

    I don't see how "asking the EU not to offer an extension" is compatible with asking the EU for an extension as required by the Benn Bill. Submitting a letter with your fingers crossed is not legal.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,957
    PB weather report: pouring down with rain in Newcastle upon Tyne.

    Metaphor for the state of the Good Friday agreement?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418

    Scott_P said:
    The likeliest route to Brexit has always been that something very close to May's Deal would be passed by Boris.

    It requires that there are no more extensions granted by the EU. But they won't do that, you cry. Yes they will. If in the background just one is determined to say no more extensions - say Hungary, with some coaching from Cummins - they will all agree to no more extensions, so as to keep their fabled unity.

    Then it it is down to Parliament - Deal or No Deal, by 31st October. The Remainers have shot themselves in the foot by saying - nay, legislating - that No Deal is an unacceptable outcome. Boris knows they have to approve a deal.

    He might get some twiddly bits. The political declaration might get rewritten on a late-night napkin. But otherwise it will still be May's shit deal.

    Some PMs might feel they should show at least a tinge of embarrassment at having got nowhere with negotiating against the EU. Boris just says "I have done what the previous PM could not - delivered Brexit through the House, in the teeth of the most ferocious and personal attacks from an Establishment utterly determined to use every tool to prevent this outcome. But done it I have. I gave you my word I would - or die in a ditch. Well, you can put another headstone by that ditch. One that says UK's EU membership...."

    And the nation goes "thank fuck for that...."
    The idea that Viktor Orban is going to be susceptible to coaching from anyone is laughable. He’s got more brains than Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings put together.

    Whatever he does will be firmly in his own interests. I can’t imagine what the current British government could offer him that would make him malleable.
    He would have made 26 other EU countries bow to his will. That is the opportunity the UK govt. is offering him.

    "I wanted to end the Brexit farce. The other 26 wanted it to carry on indefinitely. In the words of the mighty Brian Clough "“We talked about it for 20 minutes and then we decided I was right”...."
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492
    Portsmouth South is a good example of a seat where "tactical" voting could hand the seat to the Conservatives.

    The Electoral Calculus polling average (with changes on GE2017) is:
    Conservative 32.3 (-11.2)
    Labour 25.4 (-15.6)
    Liberal Democrat 19.6 (+12)
    Brexit Party 12.7 (+12.7)

    Applying these changes in support to the GE2017 result in Portsmouth South would give you a result of:
    Liberal Democrat 29.3
    Conservatives 26.4
    Labour 25.4
    Brexit Party 12.7

    Who is best placed to defeat the Tories? Various attempts to encourage people to vote tactically could end up with a result like this (with tactical vote change):
    Conservative 28.4 (+2)
    Labour 27.4 (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 27.3 (-2)
    Brexit Party 10.7 (-2)
    Tactical voting for Labour (and between the Leave parties) has handed the seat to the Tories. Tactical voting for the Liberal Democrats would see otherwise.

    How can voters be sure which way is the best to vote? I don't know. I do know that using the 2017GE results as a guide, when the national vote has changed so dramatically, will often lead a tactical voter astray.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,026

    Its the mirror, so obvious warning....

    Jennifer Arcuri’s laptop containing personal details from her time with Boris Johnson has been stolen. The American former model’s computer was snatched in Britain in the past 10 days.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnsons-lover-petrified-after-20376100

    You would think a security expert would encrypt their hard drive...

    The tin-foil mob will be saying how very convenient for the laptop containing the evidence to be stolen.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,631
    Ratters said:

    We should consider the possibility that the main outcome of the next election is... another election.

    In the reasonably likely outcome that Labour loses seats but the Conservatives fall short of a majority (even with the DUP), then it is quite likely that there will be no PM with the confidence of the House:

    1) Labour. The Lib Dems may demand a different compromise Labour MP is made PM to have their support - which would not be entirely unreasonable in the scenario where Corbyn achieved Labour's worst result in decades. It is also likely that Corbyn would refuse this request and so no Labour government can be formed that can survive a confidence vote.

    2) Conservatives. There is almost zero chance of the Lib Dems supporting a Conservative government that is imitating the Brexit party. It wouldn't even matter if Johnson stepped aside; there simply isn't anyone moderate enough left on the front benches to win Lib Dem support given the main issue of the day.

    Which means a second election in 2020 is quite possible. The key difference will be that lots of new marginals will have been created in the aftermath of the next election.

    Surely under scenario 1 Corbyn would have to resign and Watson would be leader (if he holds his seat)?

    Not that I would want Watson as PM but he might be an acceptable figleaf.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 2,093

    Scott_P said:
    The likeliest route to Brexit has always been that something very close to May's Deal would be passed by Boris.

    It requires that there are no more extensions granted by the EU. But they won't do that, you cry. Yes they will. If in the background just one is determined to say no more extensions - say Hungary, with some coaching from Cummins - they will all agree to no more extensions, so as to keep their fabled unity.

    Then it it is down to Parliament - Deal or No Deal, by 31st October. The Remainers have shot themselves in the foot by saying - nay, legislating - that No Deal is an unacceptable outcome. Boris knows they have to approve a deal.

    He might get some twiddly bits. The political declaration might get rewritten on a late-night napkin. But otherwise it will still be May's shit deal.

    Some PMs might feel they should show at least a tinge of embarrassment at having got nowhere with negotiating against the EU. Boris just says "I have done what the previous PM could not - delivered Brexit through the House, in the teeth of the most ferocious and personal attacks from an Establishment utterly determined to use every tool to prevent this outcome. But done it I have. I gave you my word I would - or die in a ditch. Well, you can put another headstone by that ditch. One that says UK's EU membership...."

    And the nation goes "thank fuck for that...."
    If Boris wanted Mays deal, all he had to do was cheerlead for it last year and show loyalty to his PM and cabinet. What has the last year of further division across the country, not to mention the tory party, been for if that is the outcome?
    The numbers weren't there.

    He did vote for May's Deal, remember. But even in the mind-bogglingly unlikely scenario that all his colleagues had voted for it - the Wollastons's, the Grieve's, the Soubry's et al - the DUP were set against it. Back then, it failed. Now it passes. That is what this past year has been about.

    Just happy circumstances that it replaced May with Boris as PM.

    It is also a happy circumstance that the Europhile Headbanger wing has been self-excised from the Conservative Party. Much, much easier to govern now.
    The numbers werent there because the foreign secretary resigned to say May's deal forces Britain to "remain in captivity", was "shameful", the PM is "on the verge of total surrender" and we had to "savour the full horror of this capitulation".

    How on earth was it supposed to pass with that "support" from the leading Tory backbencher who had recently been Foreign Secretary.

    Will he be ashamed? Will he lead us into captivity? Will he surrender?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,957
    eristdoof said:

    Ignore Jolyon Maugham’s comment and read the article. It seems that ministers accept that they can’t ignore or get round the Benn Act (see the unattributed quotes at the end of the piece):

    I don't see how "asking the EU not to offer an extension" is compatible with asking the EU for an extension as required by the Benn Bill. Submitting a letter with your fingers crossed is not legal.
    I wonder what you’d call plotting with a foreign power to frustrate the will of the British Parliament? Hmm.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,631

    Its the mirror, so obvious warning....

    Jennifer Arcuri’s laptop containing personal details from her time with Boris Johnson has been stolen. The American former model’s computer was snatched in Britain in the past 10 days.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnsons-lover-petrified-after-20376100

    You would think a security expert would encrypt their hard drive...

    The tin-foil mob will be saying how very convenient for the laptop containing the evidence to be stolen.
    I'm surprised, tbh. I was expecting it to be damaged beyond repair by a runaway steamroller accidentally reversing over it six times.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,035

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Has anyone perused Dominic Cumming's blog? It's not an easy reading experience, to put it mildly.

    https://dominiccummings.com

    No easy reading, indeed.
    I guess, in order to understand what he writes you would have to be at least as smart as he is.
    If only someone as smart as him could be put in charge of the Brexit process and/or running your country, that might work out really, really well.
    Nothing to see here mein Fuhrer!

    "Some old colleagues have said ‘Don’t put this stuff on the internet, we don’t want the second referendum mob looking at it.’ Don’t worry! Ideas like this have to be forced down people’s throats practically at gunpoint."
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,957
    ydoethur said:

    Ratters said:

    We should consider the possibility that the main outcome of the next election is... another election.

    In the reasonably likely outcome that Labour loses seats but the Conservatives fall short of a majority (even with the DUP), then it is quite likely that there will be no PM with the confidence of the House:

    1) Labour. The Lib Dems may demand a different compromise Labour MP is made PM to have their support - which would not be entirely unreasonable in the scenario where Corbyn achieved Labour's worst result in decades. It is also likely that Corbyn would refuse this request and so no Labour government can be formed that can survive a confidence vote.

    2) Conservatives. There is almost zero chance of the Lib Dems supporting a Conservative government that is imitating the Brexit party. It wouldn't even matter if Johnson stepped aside; there simply isn't anyone moderate enough left on the front benches to win Lib Dem support given the main issue of the day.

    Which means a second election in 2020 is quite possible. The key difference will be that lots of new marginals will have been created in the aftermath of the next election.

    Surely under scenario 1 Corbyn would have to resign and Watson would be leader (if he holds his seat)?

    Not that I would want Watson as PM but he might be an acceptable figleaf.
    But they’ve changed the rules and Watson wouldn’t be the PM now? I thought the NEC then decided on a replacement.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307

    Scott_P said:
    The likeliest route to Brexit has always been that something very close to May's Deal would be passed by Boris.

    It requires that there are no more extensions granted by the EU. But they won't do that, you cry. Yes they will. If in the background just one is determined to say no more extensions - say Hungary, with some coaching from Cummins - they will all agree to no more extensions, so as to keep their fabled unity.

    Then it it is down to Parliament - Deal or No Deal, by 31st October. The Remainers have shot themselves in the foot by saying - nay, legislating - that No Deal is an unacceptable outcome. Boris knows they have to approve a deal.

    He might get some twiddly bits. The political declaration might get rewritten on a late-night napkin. But otherwise it will still be May's shit deal.

    Some PMs might feel they should show at least a tinge of embarrassment at having got nowhere with negotiating against the EU. Boris just says "I have done what the previous PM could not - delivered Brexit through the House, in the teeth of the most ferocious and personal attacks from an Establishment utterly determined to use every tool to prevent this outcome. But done it I have. I gave you my word I would - or die in a ditch. Well, you can put another headstone by that ditch. One that says UK's EU membership...."

    And the nation goes "thank fuck for that...."
    The idea that Viktor Orban is going to be susceptible to coaching from anyone is laughable. He’s got more brains than Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings put together.

    Whatever he does will be firmly in his own interests. I can’t imagine what the current British government could offer him that would make him malleable.
    He would have made 26 other EU countries bow to his will. That is the opportunity the UK govt. is offering him.

    "I wanted to end the Brexit farce. The other 26 wanted it to carry on indefinitely. In the words of the mighty Brian Clough "“We talked about it for 20 minutes and then we decided I was right”...."
    And that benefits Viktor Orbán how? He’s entirely happy to stand up to the rest of the EU when it suits him. He won’t open a new front arbitrarily.
  • eekeek Posts: 5,791

    ydoethur said:

    Ratters said:

    We should consider the possibility that the main outcome of the next election is... another election.

    In the reasonably likely outcome that Labour loses seats but the Conservatives fall short of a majority (even with the DUP), then it is quite likely that there will be no PM with the confidence of the House:

    1) Labour. The Lib Dems may demand a different compromise Labour MP is made PM to have their support - which would not be entirely unreasonable in the scenario where Corbyn achieved Labour's worst result in decades. It is also likely that Corbyn would refuse this request and so no Labour government can be formed that can survive a confidence vote.

    2) Conservatives. There is almost zero chance of the Lib Dems supporting a Conservative government that is imitating the Brexit party. It wouldn't even matter if Johnson stepped aside; there simply isn't anyone moderate enough left on the front benches to win Lib Dem support given the main issue of the day.

    Which means a second election in 2020 is quite possible. The key difference will be that lots of new marginals will have been created in the aftermath of the next election.

    Surely under scenario 1 Corbyn would have to resign and Watson would be leader (if he holds his seat)?

    Not that I would want Watson as PM but he might be an acceptable figleaf.
    But they’ve changed the rules and Watson wouldn’t be the PM now? I thought the NEC then decided on a replacement.
    The role of Deputy leader hasn't been abolished yet so Watson is still the Deputy leader of the Labour party.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,324
    edited October 1
    Very good article Nick. In brief with Boris in charge anti Tory voting will reach new levels and I'm sure you're right. He can hit 35% with YouGov but how many of the 65%'s wont be prioritising keeping him and his 'New" nasty party out?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418
    Scott_P said:

    Much, much easier to govern now.

    Narrator: The Government has lost every vote since BoZo took over...
    I'm talking post-Brexit.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 2,093

    Its the mirror, so obvious warning....

    Jennifer Arcuri’s laptop containing personal details from her time with Boris Johnson has been stolen. The American former model’s computer was snatched in Britain in the past 10 days.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnsons-lover-petrified-after-20376100

    You would think a security expert would encrypt their hard drive...

    The tin-foil mob will be saying how very convenient for the laptop containing the evidence to be stolen.
    What possible risk could it be if something like that fell into the hands of an enemy intelligence agency......fortunately the world is a stable place full of leaders who all get along swimmingly so I am sure no-one would try to take advantage and get into a position to be able to blackmail a PM who might want to do lots of trade deals.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,631

    ydoethur said:

    Ratters said:

    We should consider the possibility that the main outcome of the next election is... another election.

    In the reasonably likely outcome that Labour loses seats but the Conservatives fall short of a majority (even with the DUP), then it is quite likely that there will be no PM with the confidence of the House:

    1) Labour. The Lib Dems may demand a different compromise Labour MP is made PM to have their support - which would not be entirely unreasonable in the scenario where Corbyn achieved Labour's worst result in decades. It is also likely that Corbyn would refuse this request and so no Labour government can be formed that can survive a confidence vote.

    2) Conservatives. There is almost zero chance of the Lib Dems supporting a Conservative government that is imitating the Brexit party. It wouldn't even matter if Johnson stepped aside; there simply isn't anyone moderate enough left on the front benches to win Lib Dem support given the main issue of the day.

    Which means a second election in 2020 is quite possible. The key difference will be that lots of new marginals will have been created in the aftermath of the next election.

    Surely under scenario 1 Corbyn would have to resign and Watson would be leader (if he holds his seat)?

    Not that I would want Watson as PM but he might be an acceptable figleaf.
    But they’ve changed the rules and Watson wouldn’t be the PM now? I thought the NEC then decided on a replacement.
    Not yet, as I understand it. That's what the NEC are trying to do but they pulled the conference vote on changing the constitution so I believe they have to follow it for at least another year.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418

    Scott_P said:
    The likeliest route to Brexit has always been that something very close to May's Deal would be passed by Boris.

    It requires that there are no more extensions granted by the EU. But they won't do that, you cry. Yes they will. If in the background just one is determined to say no more extensions - say Hungary, with some coaching from Cummins - they will all agree to no more extensions, so as to keep their fabled unity.

    Then it it is down to Parliament - Deal or No Deal, by 31st October. The Remainers have shot themselves in the foot by saying - nay, legislating - that No Deal is an unacceptable outcome. Boris knows they have to approve a deal.

    He might get some twiddly bits. The political declaration might get rewritten on a late-night napkin. But otherwise it will still be May's shit deal.

    Some PMs might feel they should show at least a tinge of embarrassment at having got nowhere with negotiating against the EU. Boris just says "I have done what the previous PM could not - delivered Brexit through the House, in the teeth of the most ferocious and personal attacks from an Establishment utterly determined to use every tool to prevent this outcome. But done it I have. I gave you my word I would - or die in a ditch. Well, you can put another headstone by that ditch. One that says UK's EU membership...."

    And the nation goes "thank fuck for that...."
    The idea that Viktor Orban is going to be susceptible to coaching from anyone is laughable. He’s got more brains than Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings put together.

    Whatever he does will be firmly in his own interests. I can’t imagine what the current British government could offer him that would make him malleable.
    He would have made 26 other EU countries bow to his will. That is the opportunity the UK govt. is offering him.

    "I wanted to end the Brexit farce. The other 26 wanted it to carry on indefinitely. In the words of the mighty Brian Clough "“We talked about it for 20 minutes and then we decided I was right”...."
    And that benefits Viktor Orbán how? He’s entirely happy to stand up to the rest of the EU when it suits him. He won’t open a new front arbitrarily.
    Domestic consumption. Tweaking the EU's nose plays well.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,200
    ydoethur said:

    Its the mirror, so obvious warning....

    Jennifer Arcuri’s laptop containing personal details from her time with Boris Johnson has been stolen. The American former model’s computer was snatched in Britain in the past 10 days.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnsons-lover-petrified-after-20376100

    You would think a security expert would encrypt their hard drive...

    The tin-foil mob will be saying how very convenient for the laptop containing the evidence to be stolen.
    I'm surprised, tbh. I was expecting it to be damaged beyond repair by a runaway steamroller accidentally reversing over it six times.
    A novel way to describe Johnson.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,957
    Thanks @eek and @ydoethur my bad. Clearly I misunderstood.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    'History abounds with strange bedfellows, and Corbyn/Swinson/Sturgeon must be up there among the most exotic. I doubt if it would last very long – long enough to see Brexit settled, and not very much more "

    Brexit settled? How exactly is it going to be settled by this group of people.

    People on the sovereignty wing aren't going to just shrug and say fair enough if we get revoke versus softest possible brexit referendum.

    Brexit isn't going away, "revoke, remain, rebuild" is a fantasy that just leads to a populist "stab in the back" mythology.

    Probably the only way to settle Brexit, is to have a no deal and for it to fail.

    This is why Brexit is unresolvable in England.

    Scotland, Wales and NI have routes out of the dystopian nightmare, but England is stuck in the mire for at least a generation.

    David Cameron. Some guy!
    The SNP tactics confuse me - surely their best bet is a no deal Brexit which turns out not to be the end of the world thus debunking scare stories about splitting unions ?

    When the Uk thrives post Brexit (which is nailed on barring a Jezza govt) - the ground will be laid out for an easy SNP win.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,631

    Its the mirror, so obvious warning....

    Jennifer Arcuri’s laptop containing personal details from her time with Boris Johnson has been stolen. The American former model’s computer was snatched in Britain in the past 10 days.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnsons-lover-petrified-after-20376100

    You would think a security expert would encrypt their hard drive...

    The tin-foil mob will be saying how very convenient for the laptop containing the evidence to be stolen.
    What possible risk could it be if something like that fell into the hands of an enemy intelligence agency......fortunately the world is a stable place full of leaders who all get along swimmingly so I am sure no-one would try to take advantage and get into a position to be able to blackmail a PM who might want to do lots of trade deals.
    It always baffles me how lax senior politicians are about such things. Cecil Parkinson once went for a shag with Sara Keays, left his red box in his car outside her house. Car was stolen with red box inside. Could easily have been a massive scandal then rather than later.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307

    Scott_P said:
    The likeliest route to Brexit has always been that something very close to May's Deal would be passed by Boris.

    It requires that there are no more extensions granted by the EU. But they won't do that, you cry. Yes they will. If in the background just one is determined to say no more extensions - say Hungary, with some coaching from Cummins - they will all agree to no more extensions, so as to keep their fabled unity.

    Then it it is down to Parliament - Deal or No Deal, by 31st October. The Remainers have shot themselves in the foot by saying - nay, legislating - that No Deal is an unacceptable outcome. Boris knows they have to approve a deal.

    He might get some twiddly bits. The political declaration might get rewritten on a late-night napkin. But otherwise it will still be May's shit deal.

    Some PMs might feel they should show at least a tinge of embarrassment at having got nowhere with negotiating against the EU. Boris just says "I have done what the previous PM could not - delivered Brexit through the House, in the teeth of the most ferocious and personal attacks from an Establishment utterly determined to use every tool to prevent this outcome. But done it I have. I gave you my word I would - or die in a ditch. Well, you can put another headstone by that ditch. One that says UK's EU membership...."

    And the nation goes "thank fuck for that...."
    The idea that Viktor Orban is going to be susceptible to coaching from anyone is laughable. He’s got more brains than Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings put together.

    Whatever he does will be firmly in his own interests. I can’t imagine what the current British government could offer him that would make him malleable.
    He would have made 26 other EU countries bow to his will. That is the opportunity the UK govt. is offering him.

    "I wanted to end the Brexit farce. The other 26 wanted it to carry on indefinitely. In the words of the mighty Brian Clough "“We talked about it for 20 minutes and then we decided I was right”...."
    And that benefits Viktor Orbán how? He’s entirely happy to stand up to the rest of the EU when it suits him. He won’t open a new front arbitrarily.
    Domestic consumption. Tweaking the EU's nose plays well.
    Take a look at Hungarian opinion polls. That is not exactly a pressing concern for him. And the next election is in 2022.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418



    The numbers werent there because the foreign secretary resigned to say May's deal forces Britain to "remain in captivity", was "shameful", the PM is "on the verge of total surrender" and we had to "savour the full horror of this capitulation".

    How on earth was it supposed to pass with that "support" from the leading Tory backbencher who had recently been Foreign Secretary.

    Will he be ashamed? Will he lead us into captivity? Will he surrender?

    Boris is shameless. You know this to be true. He will just say "I delivered Brexit. Job done."
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,035

    Scott_P said:
    The likeliest route to Brexit has always been that something very close to May's Deal would be passed by Boris.

    It requires that there are no more extensions granted by the EU. But they won't do that, you cry. Yes they will. If in the background just one is determined to say no more extensions - say Hungary, with some coaching from Cummins - they will all agree to no more extensions, so as to keep their fabled unity.

    Then it it is down to Parliament - Deal or No Deal, by 31st October. The Remainers have shot themselves in the foot by saying - nay, legislating - that No Deal is an unacceptable outcome. Boris knows they have to approve a deal.

    He might get some twiddly bits. The political declaration might get rewritten on a late-night napkin. But otherwise it will still be May's shit deal.

    Some PMs might feel they should show at least a tinge of embarrassment at having got nowhere with negotiating against the EU. Boris just says "I have done what the previous PM could not - delivered Brexit through the House, in the teeth of the most ferocious and personal attacks from an Establishment utterly determined to use every tool to prevent this outcome. But done it I have. I gave you my word I would - or die in a ditch. Well, you can put another headstone by that ditch. One that says UK's EU membership...."

    And the nation goes "thank fuck for that...."
    Presumably JRM takes the lead in pushing May's Deal through the House...

    Then the small matter of having 14 months to negotiate that FTA, or another cliff edge.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 1,343


    The numbers weren't there.

    He did vote for May's Deal, remember. But even in the mind-bogglingly unlikely scenario that all his colleagues had voted for it - the Wollastons's, the Grieve's, the Soubry's et al - the DUP were set against it. Back then, it failed. Now it passes. That is what this past year has been about.

    If it passes now, why has Johnson not put it to the house?


    Just happy circumstances that it replaced May with Boris as PM.

    It is also a happy circumstance that the Europhile Headbanger wing has been self-excised from the Conservative Party. Much, much easier to govern now.

    This has got to be an attempt at comedy, right?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,957

    Scott_P said:
    The likeliest route to Brexit has always been that something very close to May's Deal would be passed by Boris.

    It requires that there are no more extensions granted by the EU. But they won't do that, you cry. Yes they will. If in the background just one is determined to say no more extensions - say Hungary, with some coaching from Cummins - they will all agree to no more extensions, so as to keep their fabled unity.

    Then it it is down to Parliament - Deal or No Deal, by 31st October. The Remainers have shot themselves in the foot by saying - nay, legislating - that No Deal is an unacceptable outcome. Boris knows they have to approve a deal.

    He might get some twiddly bits. The political declaration might get rewritten on a late-night napkin. But otherwise it will still be May's shit deal.

    Some PMs might feel they should show at least a tinge of embarrassment at having got nowhere with negotiating against the EU. Boris just says "I have done what the previous PM could not - delivered Brexit through the House, in the teeth of the most ferocious and personal attacks from an Establishment utterly determined to use every tool to prevent this outcome. But done it I have. I gave you my word I would - or die in a ditch. Well, you can put another headstone by that ditch. One that says UK's EU membership...."

    And the nation goes "thank fuck for that...."
    The idea that Viktor Orban is going to be susceptible to coaching from anyone is laughable. He’s got more brains than Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings put together.

    Whatever he does will be firmly in his own interests. I can’t imagine what the current British government could offer him that would make him malleable.
    He would have made 26 other EU countries bow to his will. That is the opportunity the UK govt. is offering him.

    "I wanted to end the Brexit farce. The other 26 wanted it to carry on indefinitely. In the words of the mighty Brian Clough "“We talked about it for 20 minutes and then we decided I was right”...."
    And that benefits Viktor Orbán how? He’s entirely happy to stand up to the rest of the EU when it suits him. He won’t open a new front arbitrarily.
    Domestic consumption. Tweaking the EU's nose plays well.
    Why would Hungary volunteer to pay a bigger contribution to the EU budget?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,631
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Its the mirror, so obvious warning....

    Jennifer Arcuri’s laptop containing personal details from her time with Boris Johnson has been stolen. The American former model’s computer was snatched in Britain in the past 10 days.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnsons-lover-petrified-after-20376100

    You would think a security expert would encrypt their hard drive...

    The tin-foil mob will be saying how very convenient for the laptop containing the evidence to be stolen.
    I'm surprised, tbh. I was expecting it to be damaged beyond repair by a runaway steamroller accidentally reversing over it six times.
    A novel way to describe Johnson.
    Well, we're not allowed to use the c word so I have to get round it somehow.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 2,093
    Roger said:

    Very good article Nick. In brief with Boris in charge anti Tory voting will reach new levels and I'm sure you're right. He can hit 35% with YouGov but how many of the 65%'s wont be prioritising keeping him and his 'New" nasty party out?

    I dont know if it is occassionally done, but pollsters should give people the option of voting against a party instead of for a party. At the real polls a few people have always done that, but in the forthcoming election I think there will be a record proportion voting against (mostly Johnson or Corbyn) and the traditional poll format misses those votes.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 1,315
    TGOHF2 said:

    'History abounds with strange bedfellows, and Corbyn/Swinson/Sturgeon must be up there among the most exotic. I doubt if it would last very long – long enough to see Brexit settled, and not very much more "

    Brexit settled? How exactly is it going to be settled by this group of people.

    People on the sovereignty wing aren't going to just shrug and say fair enough if we get revoke versus softest possible brexit referendum.

    Brexit isn't going away, "revoke, remain, rebuild" is a fantasy that just leads to a populist "stab in the back" mythology.

    Probably the only way to settle Brexit, is to have a no deal and for it to fail.

    This is why Brexit is unresolvable in England.

    Scotland, Wales and NI have routes out of the dystopian nightmare, but England is stuck in the mire for at least a generation.

    David Cameron. Some guy!
    The SNP tactics confuse me - surely their best bet is a no deal Brexit which turns out not to be the end of the world thus debunking scare stories about splitting unions ?

    When the Uk thrives post Brexit (which is nailed on barring a Jezza govt) - the ground will be laid out for an easy SNP win.
    The best deal for the SNP is "Common Market 2.0" which eliminates most of the border issues. EU membership would then be an "upgrade" getting a say in the EU institutions.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 2,093



    The numbers werent there because the foreign secretary resigned to say May's deal forces Britain to "remain in captivity", was "shameful", the PM is "on the verge of total surrender" and we had to "savour the full horror of this capitulation".

    How on earth was it supposed to pass with that "support" from the leading Tory backbencher who had recently been Foreign Secretary.

    Will he be ashamed? Will he lead us into captivity? Will he surrender?

    Boris is shameless. You know this to be true. He will just say "I delivered Brexit. Job done."
    I agree he is shameless, so the first question is moot. So you think he will surrender and lead us into captivity and are cheering him on to do so?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,035

    PB weather report: pouring down with rain in Newcastle upon Tyne.

    Metaphor for the state of the Good Friday agreement?

    Worth noting is that rioting doesn't happen in the cold and rain. Rioting is a summer sport. Riotous Leavers and Remainers will stick to their keyboards inside in the warm.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,762
    ydoethur said:

    Its the mirror, so obvious warning....

    Jennifer Arcuri’s laptop containing personal details from her time with Boris Johnson has been stolen. The American former model’s computer was snatched in Britain in the past 10 days.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnsons-lover-petrified-after-20376100

    You would think a security expert would encrypt their hard drive...

    The tin-foil mob will be saying how very convenient for the laptop containing the evidence to be stolen.
    What possible risk could it be if something like that fell into the hands of an enemy intelligence agency......fortunately the world is a stable place full of leaders who all get along swimmingly so I am sure no-one would try to take advantage and get into a position to be able to blackmail a PM who might want to do lots of trade deals.
    It always baffles me how lax senior politicians are about such things. Cecil Parkinson once went for a shag with Sara Keays, left his red box in his car outside her house. Car was stolen with red box inside. Could easily have been a massive scandal then rather than later.
    The phone hacking scandal also revealed how many senior politicians didnt bother. Johhmy Prescott just ignored the advice so he could conduct his affair.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,631
    eristdoof said:

    If it passes now, why has Johnson not put it to the house?

    Ironically, of course, he can't put it to the house until there is a new session. So he has to prorogue first. And he hasn't time to do that.

    It would be funny if it weren't so disastrous if a bunch of Remainer activists challenging the prorogation of Parliament in a bid to stop no deal forced us to er, leave with no deal.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 2,093
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Its the mirror, so obvious warning....

    Jennifer Arcuri’s laptop containing personal details from her time with Boris Johnson has been stolen. The American former model’s computer was snatched in Britain in the past 10 days.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnsons-lover-petrified-after-20376100

    You would think a security expert would encrypt their hard drive...

    The tin-foil mob will be saying how very convenient for the laptop containing the evidence to be stolen.
    I'm surprised, tbh. I was expecting it to be damaged beyond repair by a runaway steamroller accidentally reversing over it six times.
    A novel way to describe Johnson.
    Well, we're not allowed to use the c word so I have to get round it somehow.
    I think some people do mistakenly still call him a conservative, however inappropriate.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,481

    Scott_P said:
    The likeliest route to Brexit has always been that something very close to May's Deal would be passed by Boris.

    It requires that there are no more extensions granted by the EU. But they won't do that, you cry. Yes they will. If in the background just one is determined to say no more extensions - say Hungary, with some coaching from Cummins - they will all agree to no more extensions, so as to keep their fabled unity.

    Then it it is down to Parliament - Deal or No Deal, by 31st October. The Remainers have shot themselves in the foot by saying - nay, legislating - that No Deal is an unacceptable outcome. Boris knows they have to approve a deal.

    He might get some twiddly bits. The political declaration might get rewritten on a late-night napkin. But otherwise it will still be May's shit deal.

    Some PMs might feel they should show at least a tinge of embarrassment at having got nowhere with negotiating against the EU. Boris just says "I have done what the previous PM could not - delivered Brexit through the House, in the teeth of the most ferocious and personal attacks from an Establishment utterly determined to use every tool to prevent this outcome. But done it I have. I gave you my word I would - or die in a ditch. Well, you can put another headstone by that ditch. One that says UK's EU membership...."

    And the nation goes "thank fuck for that...."
    The idea that Viktor Orban is going to be susceptible to coaching from anyone is laughable. He’s got more brains than Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings put together.

    Whatever he does will be firmly in his own interests. I can’t imagine what the current British government could offer him that would make him malleable.
    Cummings may be a sociopath but there’s no doubt he’s very very bright.

    Orban may be far more savvy at backroom politics, but that’s a different thing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,200
    ydoethur said:

    Its the mirror, so obvious warning....

    Jennifer Arcuri’s laptop containing personal details from her time with Boris Johnson has been stolen. The American former model’s computer was snatched in Britain in the past 10 days.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnsons-lover-petrified-after-20376100

    You would think a security expert would encrypt their hard drive...

    The tin-foil mob will be saying how very convenient for the laptop containing the evidence to be stolen.
    What possible risk could it be if something like that fell into the hands of an enemy intelligence agency......fortunately the world is a stable place full of leaders who all get along swimmingly so I am sure no-one would try to take advantage and get into a position to be able to blackmail a PM who might want to do lots of trade deals.
    It always baffles me how lax senior politicians are about such things. Cecil Parkinson once went for a shag with Sara Keays, left his red box in his car outside her house. Car was stolen with red box inside. Could easily have been a massive scandal then rather than later.
    As with him, so with Johnson - mind always on the job.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,957
    Foxy said:

    PB weather report: pouring down with rain in Newcastle upon Tyne.

    Metaphor for the state of the Good Friday agreement?

    Worth noting is that rioting doesn't happen in the cold and rain. Rioting is a summer sport. Riotous Leavers and Remainers will stick to their keyboards inside in the warm.

    The retweets will be relentless; the malicious communication prosecutions will be numerous.
This discussion has been closed.