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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Endgame. The death of the referendum mandate draws near

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  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Party Seats
    Conservative 288
    Labour 246
    Independent 35
    Scottish National Party 35
    Liberal Democrat 18
    Democratic Unionist Party 10
    Sinn Féin 7
    The Independent Group for Change 5
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Green Party 1
    Speaker 1

    So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

    So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

    Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
    The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.
    But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?
    By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against
    The Eastbourne ex LD might support Corbyn.
    As he resigned as he feels Brexit must be delivered and promised his electors I have him as abstaining
    He is strongly against No Deal. Not sure what Frank Field would do.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    humbugger said:

    Good evening all.

    Interesting exchange downthread regarding nico67's comments about Priti Patel and the subsequent accusations the comments were racist. I've no idea whether nico67 is racist or not (I hope not), but the exchange illustrated how easy it is to be a little clumsy with words thereby exposing oneself to allegations of an ism of some sort. Twitter is of course full of such examples.

    It's also the case that malicious allegations of any sort can be very difficult to disprove, especially in the short term. Witness those against Leon Brittain. Men in particular are most vulnerable to such allegations.

    My comments were taken the wrong way . My point was I detest Patel and basically it would be great if she left the country, if she hadn’t been Home Secretary I wouldn’t have mentioned deportation as it’s not something in relation to her job . If say Patel’s job was taken by IDS I would have said I hope he deports himself merely to highlight I think the country would be a better place with him out of it .

    Anyway just thought I’d clear that up , I can understand some might have misconstrued my comments.
    So you want to deport people you disagree with? I’m not sure how that is any better.
    Typical twisted Tory. He only indicated that she was your usual nasty Tory and the country would be far better with the whole cabinet deported. Hard even for a foaming at the mouth Tory to argue that.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    Define work.

    People from across the world still get here so something must be working even if other bits can be improved. If we can stop relying upon the crutch of free movement then we will be better motivated to fix any flaws with our system that impede the creme de la creme from coming.

    Its rather bigoted of @Noo to consider [primarily white] Europeans to be the "creme de la creme" we need to be attracting, rather than the creme de la creme of the entire world whether that be Asians, North or South Americans, Africans or indeed Europeans.

    You really are a thick twat aren't you?

    At no point did I say that Europeans are the creme de la creme. I said reducing the talent pool of easy hires from 28 to 1 country will be detrimental to attracting the creme de la creme here.
    As far as I can tell, the proposals won't change the barriers to those coming from outside the EU, but will significantly increase the barriers for those from within the rest of the EU. That is an increase in the difficulty of hiring.

    Meanwhile, other EU countries are not raising their barrier to hiring, which means they will become more competitive in terms of hiring and investment.

    It's sad that you had to make a baseless accusation based on what you thought I was saying rather than what I actually said. But I forgive you, because it looks a lot like you were being a cretin rather than being malicious. But you should still apologise.
    We are not reducing the talent pool from 28 to 1 country. We are taking steps to liberalise migration in the right areas to expand the talent pool to 195 countries.

    28 countries do not trump 195 countries. Until you come to me with a reason why we need to discriminate against Singaporeans and Chinese in order to get the world's best people, all I detect from you is racism.
    I thought calling another poster a "twat" brought down the ban hammer? Or is it a case of It's OK If You're A Remainer?
    It's ok because it's true.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    TudorRose said:

    Party Seats
    Conservative 288
    Labour 246
    Independent 35
    Scottish National Party 35
    Liberal Democrat 18
    Democratic Unionist Party 10
    Sinn Féin 7
    The Independent Group for Change 5
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Green Party 1
    Speaker 1

    So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

    So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

    Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
    The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.
    And 286 + 18 is not 306.
    Oh so you mean Tory Swinson cant control her own party on stopping BREXIT.

    You are correct about Mann and Hoey so i accept the 304 starting point is 302. Berger and Chukka are supposed to be in the Tory Swinson team now. Some Tory rebels have already committed to a Corbyn GONU if it is the only option to stop No Deal so i think realistically should be up to 310ish then the 5 Change Uk ers are crucial unless SF take their seats.

    Who else are you suggesting can get over 100

    Up to corbyn to back down if it ever becomes necessary if his ego is so great then it is his fault
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    humbugger said:

    Good evening all.

    Interesting exchange downthread regarding nico67's comments about Priti Patel and the subsequent accusations the comments were racist. I've no idea whether nico67 is racist or not (I hope not), but the exchange illustrated how easy it is to be a little clumsy with words thereby exposing oneself to allegations of an ism of some sort. Twitter is of course full of such examples.

    It's also the case that malicious allegations of any sort can be very difficult to disprove, especially in the short term. Witness those against Leon Brittain. Men in particular are most vulnerable to such allegations.

    My comments were taken the wrong way . My point was I detest Patel and basically it would be great if she left the country, if she hadn’t been Home Secretary I wouldn’t have mentioned deportation as it’s not something in relation to her job . If say Patel’s job was taken by IDS I would have said I hope he deports himself merely to highlight I think the country would be a better place with him out of it .

    Anyway just thought I’d clear that up , I can understand some might have misconstrued my comments.
    So you want to deport people you disagree with? I’m not sure how that is any better.
    Omg . Do you not get the gist of my point . Their job is Home Secretary , and they can make the final decision on deportation matters . I wouldn’t have mentioned deport if say Patel had been Health Secretary and no I don’t think people should be deported for having different views ! Can we just move on, I think the forum is now bored of this now .
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,731

    nichomar said:

    Anorak said:

    #JoSwinsonIsATory is trending. There are a *lot* of utter morons out there who understand neither convention, law, or simple maths.
    https://twitter.com/search?q=#JoSwinsonIsATory&src=trend_click

    An organized disgraceful slur by people who are more scared of the lib dems than the Tory’s I s a shame they haven’t got a few doors to knock on
    You see what's happening, though - we are falling out over this, making BOTH Lab->Lib and Lib->Lab tactical voting less likely. There is only one beneficiary from that, and it isn't either of our parties. That's why Jo should eventually say "OK, we'll vote for it, let's see if you've got the numbers". But I agree that it needs to happen after Oct 17 - for now, I suggest both parties hold fire.
    I love that. How about Labour saying 'OK, Corbyn is a bit of a problem, this is a cross-party initiative so let's go for a compromise candidate'. I mean, I realise that that might have to be Margaret Beckett, who as we know is practically a Tory, but needs must, eh?
    Beckett, Frank Field, Macdonnell, all bloody Tories.

    How else can we explain their bizarre decision to nominate Corbyn for leader?
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    nichomar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    #JoSwinsonIsATory is trending. There are a *lot* of utter morons out there who understand neither convention, law, or simple maths.
    https://twitter.com/search?q=#JoSwinsonIsATory&src=trend_click

    Show me your Maths

    Show me how with 18 LDs on Board for Jezza Johnson no deal wins!

    Go on i dare you
    Show me how 35 Independents, the majority of whom are ex Tories and some of whom still appear to be party members, back Corbyn.
    He represents labour leave and I have asked for proof that with the Lib Dems he can get a majority, if there was Swinson would support it if it was a last resort. The reality is as long as Johnson can’t bypass the benn act then all they need to do is VONC on 1/11. Which corbyn is totally and utterly shit scared of and I would not surprised if he bottled it
    There will be a vote for an election on 1st Nov regardless of whether we are in the EU or not and enough Labour MPs will break ranks to vote for it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    Foxy said:

    If the EU are prepared to consider a 7 years maximum for the backstop, it does rather fatally undermine the notion that it is a for all-time insurance policy....

    Come on guys, agree 5 years. We can live with 5 years. We've already had well over three years of dicking about. But No More Extensions.

    Then we can get the Boris Deal or No Deal decision by Westminster before october 31st. Which is Boris's Deal - or the place really is chock full of mental hypocrites.

    That of course is how I've been saying this would play out for weeks, to much mockery on here. Clearly nobody has read the lead story in today's Times.

    I can wait for the apologies.....

    You might need some time for that. This is from Bloomberg:

    “The EU is not considering this option at all,” a European Commission spokesman said. “We are waiting for the U.K. to come forward with a legally operational solution that meets all the objectives of the backstop.”

    A time limited backstop is being considered the same way that I am considering snacking up with Shami...
    This is being negotiated at head-of-date level. The Commission has been shown to have fucked up.
    No chance.

    Just kite flying by desperate Leavers.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    edited October 2019
    DougSeal said:

    Jonathan said:

    DougSeal said:

    Why are Europeans so much better than Singaporeans or Chinese in your eyes?

    a Brit over an Australian
    So Brits being European makes the Greek and Germans and Poles etc better than Singaporeans and Chinese. Wow . . .


    I'd expect the Australian employer to want to get the best candidate they can get for the job. If that's an Australian so be it. If it is not an Australian I would expect Brits to be treated on a level playing field as Australia's nearby neighbours* like Singapore. I wouldn't expect them to put Brits behind 27 of their nearest neighbours just because of geography.

    * Not New Zealand. New Zealand and Australia have a unique special relationship, like we do with Ireland.
    How to spectacularly shoot your own argument down. Impressive.
    How was the argument shot down?
    How to spectacularly shoot your own argument down. Impressive.



    Mr Thompson,

    The points based system you relentlessly advocate discriminates against non-British people because the number of points needed is determined by the level of need for certain occupations in this country. Google “Resident labour market test”. The points threshold is lowered if there are fewer British workers available. Same in Australia. So your preferred solution, and that if your party, favours British workers. I know because I work in immigration law.

    Secondly you say we should prioritise Ireland because we have a close relationship with it. Why? They appear to value their relationship with the EU more. Why should we prioritise that specific EU state? Because we conquered and oppressed it for many years? Guilt? Our language is Germanic, not Celtic, why prioretiae Ireland over Germany? A little racist don’t you think?

    Finally, you are a young naive man so I will forgive you this once. But you should not call a man racist without any knowledge of him or his own again.


    MY POST BELOW

    slight point of order in that the points system we have now does not discriminate against non-british people, it discriminates against non-EEA people.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,712
    Someone elses turn to do the Maths

    I think Jezza gets over the line with 18LDs

    Everyone else can Abstain if they want.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Party Seats
    Conservative 288
    Labour 246
    Independent 35
    Scottish National Party 35
    Liberal Democrat 18
    Democratic Unionist Party 10
    Sinn Féin 7
    The Independent Group for Change 5
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Green Party 1
    Speaker 1

    So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

    So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

    Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
    The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.
    But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?
    By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against
    The Eastbourne ex LD might support Corbyn.
    As he resigned as he feels Brexit must be delivered and promised his electors I have him as abstaining
    He is strongly against No Deal. Not sure what Frank Field would do.
    Abstain or against. Corbyn made enemies he will not be able to convince
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,731

    Someone elses turn to do the Maths

    I think Jezza gets over the line with 18LDs

    And if my auntie had balls, she'd be my uncle.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Party Seats
    Conservative 288
    Labour 246
    Independent 35
    Scottish National Party 35
    Liberal Democrat 18
    Democratic Unionist Party 10
    Sinn Féin 7
    The Independent Group for Change 5
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Green Party 1
    Speaker 1

    So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

    So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

    Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
    The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.
    But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?
    By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against
    The Eastbourne ex LD might support Corbyn.
    As he resigned as he feels Brexit must be delivered and promised his electors I have him as abstaining
    He is strongly against No Deal. Not sure what Frank Field would do.
    Abstain or against. Corbyn made enemies he will not be able to convince
    He nominated Corbyn for the Leadership in 2015.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    nico67 said:

    humbugger said:

    Good evening all.

    Interesting exchange downthread regarding nico67's comments about Priti Patel and the subsequent accusations the comments were racist. I've no idea whether nico67 is racist or not (I hope not), but the exchange illustrated how easy it is to be a little clumsy with words thereby exposing oneself to allegations of an ism of some sort. Twitter is of course full of such examples.

    It's also the case that malicious allegations of any sort can be very difficult to disprove, especially in the short term. Witness those against Leon Brittain. Men in particular are most vulnerable to such allegations.

    My comments were taken the wrong way . My point was I detest Patel and basically it would be great if she left the country, if she hadn’t been Home Secretary I wouldn’t have mentioned deportation as it’s not something in relation to her job . If say Patel’s job was taken by IDS I would have said I hope he deports himself merely to highlight I think the country would be a better place with him out of it .

    Anyway just thought I’d clear that up , I can understand some might have misconstrued my comments.
    Iain Duncan Smith is perhaps a bad example, given he's also mixed race.
    He is as vile if not worse than Patel more like.
    Well, I'm not disagreeing with that Malc as it seems sound common sense, but I was only suggesting that in a row about alleged racism perhaps he wasn't the best example to talk about deportations not commenting on his moral character.
    Perhaps , but still harder to see how the snowflakes got to where they were and started foaming at the mouth about racism. Perhaps could have been phrased better but unless you immediately want to take offence at everything I cannot see where the offence came from.
  • spudgfsh said:

    Party Seats
    Conservative 288
    Labour 246
    Independent 35
    Scottish National Party 35
    Liberal Democrat 18
    Democratic Unionist Party 10
    Sinn Féin 7
    The Independent Group for Change 5
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Green Party 1
    Speaker 1

    So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

    So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

    Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
    The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.
    But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?
    By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against
    Thats just not true some Ex Tories including Ken have said Jezza as last resort. Abstentions are probably OK

    Anna Soubry says Corbyn never but on 29/10/19 will she be the vote that enables No Deal
    I have often admired your comments on this site but I think in this instance you are letting your emotions and feeling get in the way of logic..

    Corbyn has at best 302 (lab, snp, green and plaid less Mann and hoey).. There may be some abstaining in his own ranks e.g flint but I wouldn't be sure of that.. On the opposing side you have all tory, DUP and 2 Labour... Which is 300..

    With the indy former tories.. Clarke will probably vote for Corbyn and that's about it.. Most of the others have been making noises suggesting they would like to return to the tory fold e. G brine and noakes so they will not risk that by even abstaining let alone voting for.. That leaves the Labour indy lot half of which won't vote for corbyn and half who may do.. Even with the 15 LD MPs (3 certainly won't vote Corbyn under any circumstances) he's way short...

    Honestly even if all his cards fell into place at the same time he would come up short and I suspect lady Hermon would be the casting vote if any and she too is on the record as being never corbyn..

  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300

    nichomar said:

    Anorak said:

    #JoSwinsonIsATory is trending. There are a *lot* of utter morons out there who understand neither convention, law, or simple maths.
    https://twitter.com/search?q=#JoSwinsonIsATory&src=trend_click

    An organized disgraceful slur by people who are more scared of the lib dems than the Tory’s I s a shame they haven’t got a few doors to knock on
    You see what's happening, though - we are falling out over this, making BOTH Lab->Lib and Lib->Lab tactical voting less likely. There is only one beneficiary from that, and it isn't either of our parties. That's why Jo should eventually say "OK, we'll vote for it, let's see if you've got the numbers". But I agree that it needs to happen after Oct 17 - for now, I suggest both parties hold fire.
    She has to be seen to be forced into it. she will move but at the last minute.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,846
    The time limited backstop is the concession I thought they would give May.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    This is being negotiated at head-of-date level. The Commission has been shown to have fucked up.

    Would it even get through parliament now anyway? Corbyn would whip against, SNP/LD obviously not, some spartans would vote no too.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670
    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    Define work.

    People from across the world still get here so something must be working even if other bits can be improved. If we can stop relying upon the crutch of free movement then we will be better motivated to fix any flaws with our system that impede the creme de la creme from coming.

    Its rather bigoted of @Noo to consider [primarily white] Europeans to be the "creme de la creme" we need to be attracting, rather than the creme de la creme of the entire world whether that be Asians, North or South Americans, Africans or indeed Europeans.

    You really are a thick twat aren't you?

    At no point did I say that Europeans are the creme de la creme. I said reducing the talent pool of easy hires from 28 to 1 country will be detrimental to attracting the creme de la creme here.
    As far as I can tell, the proposals won't change the barriers to those coming from outside the EU, but will significantly increase the barriers for those from within the rest of the EU. That is an increase in the difficulty of hiring.

    Meanwhile, other EU countries are not raising their barrier to hiring, which means they will become more competitive in terms of hiring and investment.

    It's sad that you had to make a baseless accusation based on what you thought I was saying rather than what I actually said. But I forgive you, because it looks a lot like you were being a cretin rather than being malicious. But you should still apologise.
    We are not reducing the talent pool from 28 to 1 country. We are taking steps to liberalise migration in the right areas to expand the talent pool to 195 countries.

    28 countries do not trump 195 countries. Until you come to me with a reason why we need to discriminate against Singaporeans and Chinese in order to get the world's best people, all I detect from you is racism.
    I thought calling another poster a "twat" brought down the ban hammer? Or is it a case of It's OK If You're A Remainer?
    It's ok because it's true.
    :D
  • I must say I'm struggling to see how wanting to deport Priti Patel is any different from Trump wanting Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to 'go home', but no doubt that's because I'm not woke enough to navigate these treacherous waters.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    PaulM said:

    TudorRose said:

    Party Seats
    Conservative 288
    Labour 246
    Independent 35
    Scottish National Party 35
    Liberal Democrat 18
    Democratic Unionist Party 10
    Sinn Féin 7
    The Independent Group for Change 5
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Green Party 1
    Speaker 1

    So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

    So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

    Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
    The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.
    And 286 + 18 is not 306.
    Oh so you mean Tory Swinson cant control her own party on stopping BREXIT.

    You are correct about Mann and Hoey so i accept the 304 starting point is 302. Berger and Chukka are supposed to be in the Tory Swinson team now. Some Tory rebels have already committed to a Corbyn GONU if it is the only option to stop No Deal so i think realistically should be up to 310ish then the 5 Change Uk ers are crucial unless SF take their seats.

    Who else are you suggesting can get over 100
    Is Mann still allowed to vote now he is a Lord ?
    Hes not in yet
    Is there a ceremony that the Queen needs to do ?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Party Seats
    Conservative 288
    Labour 246
    Independent 35
    Scottish National Party 35
    Liberal Democrat 18
    Democratic Unionist Party 10
    Sinn Féin 7
    The Independent Group for Change 5
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Green Party 1
    Speaker 1

    So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

    So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

    Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
    The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.
    But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?
    By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against
    The Eastbourne ex LD might support Corbyn.
    As he resigned as he feels Brexit must be delivered and promised his electors I have him as abstaining
    He is strongly against No Deal. Not sure what Frank Field would do.
    He has resigned the whip is still a ,
    Member and will vote against no deal
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    Noo said:

    You need to apologise for calling me a bigot.
    You are attacking straw men:
    "while keeping tight restrictions on Africans, Asians, North and South Americans", "restricting Singaporeans, Chinese". I've said nothing of the sort.
    I've said the increase in barriers is detrimental. Indeed, if Patel were proposing something like Trump's "Muslim ban", stopping immigration wholesale from certain countries, that would be objectionable.
    We should be working in the opposite direction, making it easier for people to move around for work. Not harder.
    As it happens, I think that the focus should be on making it easier for the rest of the world. But making it harder for Europeans under the banner of equality is rather like saying we should seize the homes of the wealthy and give them to the homeless. Yes, it's "fairer" in a weird way, but it's also breathtakingly missing the point and enormously stupid.

    You, too, are breathtakingly missing the point and enormously stupid.

    You went off on a rant about what you imagined I believed, and you got it wrong. I regret that you didn't stop to take the time to think about how much your mind was contributing to what you thought I was saying rather than just reading what I said, but it's ok because you've only embarrassed yourself. Again. I will accept your apology, if you're man enough to offer it.

    I won't apologise for calling you out on your bigotry. You look down your nose and want to discriminate against 167 countries and their citizens.

    Patel has proposed lowering barriers on those seeking work in academia etc across the globe, while ending free movement from just 27 [primarily white] European nations. You react with horror at this proposal. That is bigotry. Making it easier for the world's best to get academic roles etc is not going to make our universities worse like you claim.

    Until you address the fact that there are 195 countries not 28 in this small world of ours, I have no apologies for someone so small minded as to think only 28 matter.
    You are in favour of a policy proposal that simply narrows down 28 favoured countries to one. Under your party’s proposals employers will only be issued Tier 2 permits for shortage occupations and then only after advertising for a Brit (that’s how your beloved points system works). You favour 1 country against the rest of the world. We favour 28 against the rest of the world. To my mind that makes us 28 times less racist than you.
  • ydoethur said:

    Someone elses turn to do the Maths

    I think Jezza gets over the line with 18LDs

    And if my auntie had balls, she'd be my uncle.
    Only if she chose to self define as such.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,731
    nichomar said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Party Seats
    Conservative 288
    Labour 246
    Independent 35
    Scottish National Party 35
    Liberal Democrat 18
    Democratic Unionist Party 10
    Sinn Féin 7
    The Independent Group for Change 5
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Green Party 1
    Speaker 1

    So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

    So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

    Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
    The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.
    But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?
    By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against
    The Eastbourne ex LD might support Corbyn.
    As he resigned as he feels Brexit must be delivered and promised his electors I have him as abstaining
    He is strongly against No Deal. Not sure what Frank Field would do.
    He has resigned the whip is still a ,
    Member and will vote against no deal
    I thought if you resigned the whip as a Labour MP you were also automatically expelled from the party?
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    nichomar said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Party Seats
    Conservative 288
    Labour 246
    Independent 35
    Scottish National Party 35
    Liberal Democrat 18
    Democratic Unionist Party 10
    Sinn Féin 7
    The Independent Group for Change 5
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Green Party 1
    Speaker 1

    So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

    So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

    Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
    The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.
    But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?
    By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against
    The Eastbourne ex LD might support Corbyn.
    As he resigned as he feels Brexit must be delivered and promised his electors I have him as abstaining
    He is strongly against No Deal. Not sure what Frank Field would do.
    He has resigned the whip is still a ,
    Member and will vote against no deal
    he's a brexiter, and there's the antisemitism which forced him out of the labour party. He'll be unlikely to vote to put in Corbyn at best he may abstain
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Party Seats
    Conservative 288
    Labour 246
    Independent 35
    Scottish National Party 35
    Liberal Democrat 18
    Democratic Unionist Party 10
    Sinn Féin 7
    The Independent Group for Change 5
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Green Party 1
    Speaker 1

    So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

    So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

    Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
    The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.
    But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?
    By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against
    The Eastbourne ex LD might support Corbyn.
    As he resigned as he feels Brexit must be delivered and promised his electors I have him as abstaining
    He is strongly against No Deal. Not sure what Frank Field would do.
    Abstain or against. Corbyn made enemies he will not be able to convince
    He nominated Corbyn for the Leadership in 2015.
    He abstained Cooper boles, for the Brady amendment, and his new party is pro Brexit. He left labour having been one of 4 to defy the whip over Brexit and customs union. Nothing suggests he would support Corbyn. He nominated him, in his words, to make labour face its internal deficit and did not feel he could become a PM
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,731

    ydoethur said:

    Someone elses turn to do the Maths

    I think Jezza gets over the line with 18LDs

    And if my auntie had balls, she'd be my uncle.
    Only if she chose to self define as such.
    You're right TUD, I apologise for my inadvertent transphobia.
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377
    kinabalu said:

    The time limited backstop is the concession I thought they would give May.

    I've no idea whether the time limited backstop is in play now, but either way the EU had no need to offer it to May as they knew she'd never leave without a deal. With Boris it's probably different.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    ydoethur said:

    nichomar said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Party Seats
    Conservative 288
    Labour 246
    Independent 35
    Scottish National Party 35
    Liberal Democrat 18
    Democratic Unionist Party 10
    Sinn Féin 7
    The Independent Group for Change 5
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Green Party 1
    Speaker 1

    So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

    So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

    Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
    The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.
    But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?
    By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against
    The Eastbourne ex LD might support Corbyn.
    As he resigned as he feels Brexit must be delivered and promised his electors I have him as abstaining
    He is strongly against No Deal. Not sure what Frank Field would do.
    He has resigned the whip is still a ,
    Member and will vote against no deal
    I thought if you resigned the whip as a Labour MP you were also automatically expelled from the party?
    he created his own party of one "Birkenhead Social Justice"
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    GIN1138 said:

    Labour has rejected the idea of a "government of national unity" - headed by a figure like Ken Clarke or Margaret Beckett - to prevent a no-deal Brexit.

    Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell said any interim government - formed after the removal of Boris Johnson - must be headed by Jeremy Corbyn.

    The Lib Dems have, meanwhile, said they will not back an interim government headed by Mr Corbyn, with leader Jo Swinson saying the Labour leader had to make clear who else he would support to temporarily take charge.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49891500

    Jezza's putting his foot down! As we all knew he would. :D
    Of course.

    If we get to an interim Govt, then the jockeying for position is all about the GE that will almost immediately follow.

    It is hugely advantageous for both Corby and Labour that he gets in to No 10 before the Election.

    It is hugely advantageous for every Labour MP (whether they like Corby or not) that Labour do well in the GE.

    So, I expect all the Labour MPs to line up behind Corby.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    DougSeal said:

    Noo said:

    You need to apologise for calling me a bigot.
    You are attacking straw men:
    "while keeping tight restrictions on Africans, Asians, North and South Americans", "restricting Singaporeans, Chinese". I've said nothing of the sort.
    I've said the increase in barriers is detrimental. Indeed, if Patel were proposing something like Trump's "Muslim ban", stopping immigration wholesale from certain countries, that would be objectionable.
    We should be working in the opposite direction, making it easier for people to move around for work. Not harder.
    As it happens, I think that the focus should be on making it easier for the rest of the world. But making it harder for Europeans under the banner of equality is rather like saying we should seize the homes of the wealthy and give them to the homeless. Yes, it's "fairer" in a weird way, but it's also breathtakingly missing the point and enormously stupid.

    You, too, are breathtakingly missing the point and enormously stupid.

    You went off on a rant about what you imagined I believed, and you got it wrong. I regret that you didn't stop to take the time to think about how much your mind was contributing to what you thought I was saying rather than just reading what I said, but it's ok because you've only embarrassed yourself. Again. I will accept your apology, if you're man enough to offer it.

    I won't apologise for calling you out on your bigotry. You look down your nose and want to discriminate against 167 countries and their citizens.

    Patel has proposed lowering barriers on those seeking work in academia etc across the globe, while ending free movement from just 27 [primarily white] European nations. You react with horror at this proposal. That is bigotry. Making it easier for the world's best to get academic roles etc is not going to make our universities worse like you claim.

    Until you address the fact that there are 195 countries not 28 in this small world of ours, I have no apologies for someone so small minded as to think only 28 matter.
    You are in favour of a policy proposal that simply narrows down 28 favoured countries to one. Under your party’s proposals employers will only be issued Tier 2 permits for shortage occupations and then only after advertising for a Brit (that’s how your beloved points system works). You favour 1 country against the rest of the world. We favour 28 against the rest of the world. To my mind that makes us 28 times less racist than you.
    Speak for yourself. That is not a representation of my position.
  • Meanwhile, those nice collegiate Labour people are having a comradely discussion about choosing a mayoral candidate for the West Midlands:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/01/metro-mayor-selection-process-hit-by-row-over-prospective-candidate

    Yes, that article feels horribly true. I fear that much of the stuff we get from Boris’s admirers - about Boris’s magic and Dom’s genius - will turn out to be nothing more than a befuddled fantasy. Not long to find out.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    spudgfsh said:

    nichomar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    #JoSwinsonIsATory is trending. There are a *lot* of utter morons out there who understand neither convention, law, or simple maths.
    https://twitter.com/search?q=#JoSwinsonIsATory&src=trend_click

    Show me your Maths

    Show me how with 18 LDs on Board for Jezza Johnson no deal wins!

    Go on i dare you
    Show me how 35 Independents, the majority of whom are ex Tories and some of whom still appear to be party members, back Corbyn.
    He represents labour leave and I have asked for proof that with the Lib Dems he can get a majority, if there was Swinson would support it if it was a last resort. The reality is as long as Johnson can’t bypass the benn act then all they need to do is VONC on 1/11. Which corbyn is totally and utterly shit scared of and I would not surprised if he bottled it
    There will be a vote for an election on 1st Nov regardless of whether we are in the EU or not and enough Labour MPs will break ranks to vote for it.

    Well I would hope so
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,712

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Party Seats
    Conservative 288
    Labour 246
    Independent 35
    Scottish National Party 35
    Liberal Democrat 18
    Democratic Unionist Party 10
    Sinn Féin 7
    The Independent Group for Change 5
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Green Party 1
    Speaker 1

    So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

    So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

    Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
    The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.
    But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?
    By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against
    The Eastbourne ex LD might support Corbyn.
    As he resigned as he feels Brexit must be delivered and promised his electors I have him as abstaining
    He is strongly against No Deal. Not sure what Frank Field would do.
    Abstain or against. Corbyn made enemies he will not be able to convince
    Where are your workings i reckon there is every chance

    Do we agree 304 - 298 starting point

    Then HOEY and Mann makes it 302-300

    Jezza definitely gets O Mara Vaz and Williamson so 305 -300

    So CHANGE UK Abstain so still 5up

    21 Tories Handful with Jezza how many abstain Surely not many vote for No Deal

    We must be close to proving LDs are crucial block??
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    nichomar said:

    spudgfsh said:

    nichomar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    #JoSwinsonIsATory is trending. There are a *lot* of utter morons out there who understand neither convention, law, or simple maths.
    https://twitter.com/search?q=#JoSwinsonIsATory&src=trend_click

    Show me your Maths

    Show me how with 18 LDs on Board for Jezza Johnson no deal wins!

    Go on i dare you
    Show me how 35 Independents, the majority of whom are ex Tories and some of whom still appear to be party members, back Corbyn.
    He represents labour leave and I have asked for proof that with the Lib Dems he can get a majority, if there was Swinson would support it if it was a last resort. The reality is as long as Johnson can’t bypass the benn act then all they need to do is VONC on 1/11. Which corbyn is totally and utterly shit scared of and I would not surprised if he bottled it
    There will be a vote for an election on 1st Nov regardless of whether we are in the EU or not and enough Labour MPs will break ranks to vote for it.

    Well I would hope so
    regardless of what labour MPs think about Corbyn or the polling, they know that this parliament needs to end and a new mandate is required.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    edited October 2019
    Noo said:

    DougSeal said:

    Noo said:

    You need to apologise for calling me a bigot.
    You are attacking straw men:
    "while keeping tight restrictions on Africans, Asians, North and South Americans", "restricting Singaporeans, Chinese". I've said nothing of the sort.
    I've said the increase in barriers is detrimental. Indeed, if Patel were proposing something like Trump's "Muslim ban", stopping immigration wholesale from certain countries, that would be objectionable.
    We should be working in the opposite .

    You, too, are breathtakingly missing the point and enormously stupid.

    You went off on a rant about what you imagined I believed, and you got it wrong. I regret that you didn't stop to take the time to think about how much your mind was contributing to what you thought I was saying rather than just reading what I said, but it's ok because you've only embarrassed yourself. Again. I will accept your apology, if you're man enough to offer it.

    I won't apologise for calling you out on your bigotry. You look down your nose and want to discriminate against 167 countries and their citizens.

    Patel has proposed lowering barriers on those seeking work in academia etc across the globe, while ending free movement from just 27 [primarily white] European nations. You react with horror at this proposal. That is bigotry. Making it easier for the world's best to get academic roles etc is not going to make our universities worse like you claim.

    Until you address the fact that there are 195 countries not 28 in this small world of ours, I have no apologies for someone so small minded as to think only 28 matter.
    You are in favour of a policy proposal that simply narrows down 28 favoured countries to one. Under your party’s proposals employers will only be issued Tier 2 permits for shortage occupations and then only after advertising for a Brit (that’s how your beloved points system works). You favour 1 country against the rest of the world. We favour 28 against the rest of the world. To my mind that makes us 28 times less racist than you.
    Speak for yourself. That is not a representation of my position.
    My comments were addressed to Mr Thompson but there was a clumsy use of “we” in an attempt to get Mr Thompson to understand. It wasn’t intended to mean you. Essentially EU free movement pushes the border out as far as an policy can take it thus far. It could have been better expressed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,731

    Where are your workings i reckon there is every chance

    Do we agree 304 - 298 starting point

    No.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Party Seats
    Conservative 288
    Labour 246
    Independent 35
    Scottish National Party 35
    Liberal Democrat 18
    Democratic Unionist Party 10
    Sinn Féin 7
    The Independent Group for Change 5
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Green Party 1
    Speaker 1

    So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

    So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

    Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
    The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.
    But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?
    By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against
    The Eastbourne ex LD might support Corbyn.
    As he resigned as he feels Brexit must be delivered and promised his electors I have him as abstaining
    He is strongly against No Deal. Not sure what Frank Field would do.
    Abstain or against. Corbyn made enemies he will not be able to convince
    Where are your workings i reckon there is every chance

    Do we agree 304 - 298 starting point

    Then HOEY and Mann makes it 302-300

    Jezza definitely gets O Mara Vaz and Williamson so 305 -300

    So CHANGE UK Abstain so still 5up

    21 Tories Handful with Jezza how many abstain Surely not many vote for No Deal

    We must be close to proving LDs are crucial block??
    Name those of the 21 who would support corbyn please.
  • justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Party Seats
    Conservative 288
    Labour 246
    Independent 35
    Scottish National Party 35
    Liberal Democrat 18
    Democratic Unionist Party 10
    Sinn Féin 7
    The Independent Group for Change 5
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Green Party 1
    Speaker 1

    So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

    So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

    Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
    The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.
    But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?
    By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against
    The Eastbourne ex LD might support Corbyn.
    As he resigned as he feels Brexit must be delivered and promised his electors I have him as abstaining
    He is strongly against No Deal. Not sure what Frank Field would do.
    Abstain or against. Corbyn made enemies he will not be able to convince
    Where are your workings i reckon there is every chance

    Do we agree 304 - 298 starting point

    Then HOEY and Mann makes it 302-300

    Jezza definitely gets O Mara Vaz and Williamson so 305 -300

    So CHANGE UK Abstain so still 5up

    21 Tories Handful with Jezza how many abstain Surely not many vote for No Deal

    We must be close to proving LDs are crucial block??
    The issue is your seeing this as a vote for no deal if you vote against corbyn.. Its not its a vote against a corbyn government..

    Many will see this against corbyn so someone else can have a go at forming a government to ask for the extension
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    viewcode said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:
    Please God take it
    Amen. There was a strange uptick in GBP about a hour ago. I wondered what caused it. If Boris doesn't grab this with both hands, he is stupid.
    Would be a great result if true!

    Wording with Bloomberg is oddly non committal. Sounds like someone is flying a kite from the EU side.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    JRM absolutely slaughtered channel 4 news. Fantastic performance.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,712
    nichomar said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Party Seats
    Conservative 288
    Labour 246
    Independent 35
    Scottish National Party 35
    Liberal Democrat 18
    Democratic Unionist Party 10
    Sinn Féin 7
    The Independent Group for Change 5
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Green Party 1
    Speaker 1

    So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

    So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

    Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
    The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.
    But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?
    By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against
    The Eastbourne ex LD might support Corbyn.
    As he resigned as he feels Brexit must be delivered and promised his electors I have him as abstaining
    He is strongly against No Deal. Not sure what Frank Field would do.
    Abstain or against. Corbyn made enemies he will not be able to convince
    Where are your workings i reckon there is every chance

    Do we agree 304 - 298 starting point

    Then HOEY and Mann makes it 302-300

    Jezza definitely gets O Mara Vaz and Williamson so 305 -300

    So CHANGE UK Abstain so still 5up

    21 Tories Handful with Jezza how many abstain Surely not many vote for No Deal

    We must be close to proving LDs are crucial block??
    Name those of the 21 who would support corbyn please.
    And you will name those who will vote No Deal despite resigning the Party Whip to avoid it?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,731

    The issue is your seeing this as a vote for no deal if you vote against corbyn.. Its not its a vote against a corbyn government..

    Many will see this against corbyn so someone else can have a go at forming a government to ask for the extension

    Anyone would think that putting a third rate tribal nutter with the instincts of a mid-twentieth-century dogmatic socialist in charge of Labour was not perhaps a great idea.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    DougSeal said:

    Sorry, clumsy use of “we” in an attempt to get Mr Thompson to understand. Essentially EU free movement pushes the border out as far as an policy can take it thus far. It could have been better expressed.

    Well you're right and wrong.
    Right in the sense that it's a more noble and defensible position than PT's.
    Wrong in the sense that you think you can get him to understand anything more basic than "fire" "smash" "me eat now" and "this cave mine".
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    viewcode said:

    Fenster said:

    Surely any poster on here knows the truism that 95% of the public are not aware of, let alone fully up to speed with, the details of Westminster politics.

    is it therefore fanciful surely to try and argue that everyone who voted leave had absorbed and held in their head such detailed argument as is in the post header. Surely the vast majority of Leave voters had no interest in the details, they just wanted to Leave. they did not vote "Leave but only with a deal".

    Almost everyone i speak to is fed up with this now. We need to leave, then we can go about negotiating trade deals, customs details and other things on which we can co-operate again. No it's not ideal, but ignoring the result is way worse.

    +1

    But in 10 years time clever, wealthy, sneery people will still be arguing over the small print of the Leave campaign... saying their European identity was stolen by a bunch of knucklescraping racists who can't think for themselves.
    There were (and are) clever wealthy sneery people on the Leave side also.
    Hedge fund owners.
    To be honest most of the hedgies I know are not sneery.

    They’ve made a lot of money from making acute judgements about the world and taking risk accordingly. Sneering implies a value judgement and gets in the way of making money.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    nichomar said:

    Anorak said:

    #JoSwinsonIsATory is trending. There are a *lot* of utter morons out there who understand neither convention, law, or simple maths.
    https://twitter.com/search?q=#JoSwinsonIsATory&src=trend_click

    An organized disgraceful slur by people who are more scared of the lib dems than the Tory’s I s a shame they haven’t got a few doors to knock on
    You see what's happening, though - we are falling out over this, making BOTH Lab->Lib and Lib->Lab tactical voting less likely. There is only one beneficiary from that, and it isn't either of our parties. That's why Jo should eventually say "OK, we'll vote for it, let's see if you've got the numbers". But I agree that it needs to happen after Oct 17 - for now, I suggest both parties hold fire.
    I love that. How about Labour saying 'OK, Corbyn is a bit of a problem, this is a cross-party initiative so let's go for a compromise candidate'. I mean, I realise that that might have to be Margaret Beckett, who as we know is practically a Tory, but needs must, eh?
    The choosing of a PM to replace Johnson looks like a re-run of Brexit itself. We can see that there is a majority against all of the candidates, and neither side is willing to compromise so that a majority in favour of one individual can be achieved.

    Who do they apply to for an extension to the replacing Boris Johnson process?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    ydoethur said:

    nichomar said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Party Seats
    Conservative 288
    Labour 246
    Independent 35
    Scottish National Party 35
    Liberal Democrat 18
    Democratic Unionist Party 10
    Sinn Féin 7
    The Independent Group for Change 5
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Green Party 1
    Speaker 1

    So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

    So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

    Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
    The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.
    But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?
    By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against
    The Eastbourne ex LD might support Corbyn.
    As he resigned as he feels Brexit must be delivered and promised his electors I have him as abstaining
    He is strongly against No Deal. Not sure what Frank Field would do.
    He has resigned the whip is still a ,
    Member and will vote against no deal
    I thought if you resigned the whip as a Labour MP you were also automatically expelled from the party?

    I thought we were talking about Lloyd eastbourne not the others
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Party Seats
    Conservative 288
    Labour 246
    Independent 35
    Scottish National Party 35
    Liberal Democrat 18
    Democratic Unionist Party 10
    Sinn Féin 7
    The Independent Group for Change 5
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Green Party 1
    Speaker 1

    So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

    So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

    Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
    The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.
    But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?
    By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against
    The Eastbourne ex LD might support Corbyn.
    As he resigned as he feels Brexit must be delivered and promised his electors I have him as abstaining
    He is strongly against No Deal. Not sure what Frank Field would do.
    Abstain or against. Corbyn made enemies he will not be able to convince
    Where are your workings i reckon there is every chance

    Do we agree 304 - 298 starting point

    Then HOEY and Mann makes it 302-300

    Jezza definitely gets O Mara Vaz and Williamson so 305 -300

    So CHANGE UK Abstain so still 5up

    21 Tories Handful with Jezza how many abstain Surely not many vote for No Deal

    We must be close to proving LDs are crucial block??
    None of the ex Tories will vote for him (Clarke and bebb wont I think even having mused it in passing) many will abstain, a few like Soames have categorically stated they will not allow Corbyn to become PM
    Of the indies, field, Austin, Lewis, elphicke, woodcock are going fo vote against him
    I also think change and the firmer change indies may well vote against him
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    How on earth was Hillary last matched at 17 for Democratic nominee?

    She’s shorter than Buttigieg.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,731

    How on earth was Hillary last matched at 17 for Democratic nominee?

    She’s shorter than Buttigieg.

    I didn't think the presidency was about the physical size of the candidates.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    If the EU really are offering that concession Boris Johnson should fucking bite their hand off.

    It’s huge and he can argue vindicates his “tough” strategy.

    It’s probably too late though, since he’s shat away 21 of his own MPs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,731
    nichomar said:

    ydoethur said:

    nichomar said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Party Seats
    Conservative 288
    Labour 246
    Independent 35
    Scottish National Party 35
    Liberal Democrat 18
    Democratic Unionist Party 10
    Sinn Féin 7
    The Independent Group for Change 5
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Green Party 1
    Speaker 1

    So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

    So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

    Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
    The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.
    But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?
    By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against
    The Eastbourne ex LD might support Corbyn.
    As he resigned as he feels Brexit must be delivered and promised his electors I have him as abstaining
    He is strongly against No Deal. Not sure what Frank Field would do.
    He has resigned the whip is still a ,
    Member and will vote against no deal
    I thought if you resigned the whip as a Labour MP you were also automatically expelled from the party?

    I thought we were talking about Lloyd eastbourne not the others
    Ah, my mistake, I was talking about Frank Field.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited October 2019

    JRM absolutely slaughtered channel 4 news. Fantastic performance.

    Makes me wonder why any Tories go on Channel 4 "Fuck The Tories" News.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    I must say I'm struggling to see how wanting to deport Priti Patel is any different from Trump wanting Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to 'go home', but no doubt that's because I'm not woke enough to navigate these treacherous waters.

    I think if you’re woke enough you can get the racism to work for you.

    (am I doing this right?)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    If the EU really are offering that concession Boris Johnson should fucking bite their hand off.

    It’s huge and he can argue vindicates his “tough” strategy.

    Sorry been off the scene all day what are the EU offering?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    Anorak said:

    #JoSwinsonIsATory is trending. There are a *lot* of utter morons out there who understand neither convention, law, or simple maths.
    https://twitter.com/search?q=#JoSwinsonIsATory&src=trend_click

    An organized disgraceful slur by people who are more scared of the lib dems than the Tory’s I s a shame they haven’t got a few doors to knock on
    You see what's happening, though - we are falling out over this, making BOTH Lab->Lib and Lib->Lab tactical voting less likely. There is only one beneficiary from that, and it isn't either of our parties. That's why Jo should eventually say "OK, we'll vote for it, let's see if you've got the numbers". But I agree that it needs to happen after Oct 17 - for now, I suggest both parties hold fire.
    I love that. How about Labour saying 'OK, Corbyn is a bit of a problem, this is a cross-party initiative so let's go for a compromise candidate'. I mean, I realise that that might have to be Margaret Beckett, who as we know is practically a Tory, but needs must, eh?
    The choosing of a PM to replace Johnson looks like a re-run of Brexit itself. We can see that there is a majority against all of the candidates, and neither side is willing to compromise so that a majority in favour of one individual can be achieved.

    Who do they apply to for an extension to the replacing Boris Johnson process?
    If Johnson fails to request the extension he gets sacked by HMQ and corbyn is installed to do it and then is VONC next day
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    GIN1138 said:

    If the EU really are offering that concession Boris Johnson should fucking bite their hand off.

    It’s huge and he can argue vindicates his “tough” strategy.

    Sorry been off the scene all day what are the EU offering?
    Conflicting reports they may offer a time limited backstop
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TGOHF2 said:

    So Germany and France offered 7 years and the Commission knows nothing about it - farce..

    That’s not what they said

    They said the EU is not discussing it

    That’s true

    France & Germany are though...
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    GIN1138 said:

    If the EU really are offering that concession Boris Johnson should fucking bite their hand off.

    It’s huge and he can argue vindicates his “tough” strategy.

    Sorry been off the scene all day what are the EU offering?
    There was a rumour earlier they'd offer a time limited backstop, but it was squashed fairly quickly. Unless there's something different being referred to here.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,712
    nichomar said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Party Seats
    Conservative 288
    Labour 246
    Independent 35
    Scottish National Party 35
    Liberal Democrat 18
    Democratic Unionist Party 10
    Sinn Féin 7
    The Independent Group for Change 5
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Green Party 1
    Speaker 1

    So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

    So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

    Take John mann and Kate Hoey off the Corbyn slate and add to the Tory slate
    The independents break against Corbyn. Luciaba Berger and Chuka will under no circumstances back Corbyn.
    But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?
    By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against
    The Eastbourne ex LD might support Corbyn.
    As he resigned as he feels Brexit must be delivered and promised his electors I have him as abstaining
    He is strongly against No Deal. Not sure what Frank Field would do.
    Abstain or against. Corbyn made enemies he will not be able to convince
    Where are your workings i reckon there is every chance

    Do we agree 304 - 298 starting point

    Then HOEY and Mann makes it 302-300

    Jezza definitely gets O Mara Vaz and Williamson so 305 -300

    So CHANGE UK Abstain so still 5up

    21 Tories Handful with Jezza how many abstain Surely not many vote for No Deal

    We must be close to proving LDs are crucial block??
    Name those of the 21 who would support corbyn please.
    Ken Clarke Domonic Grieve
    ydoethur said:

    Where are your workings i reckon there is every chance

    Do we agree 304 - 298 starting point

    No.
    Why? with 18 LDs 246 Lab 35SNP 4PC 1 Green =304
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    GIN1138 said:

    If the EU really are offering that concession Boris Johnson should fucking bite their hand off.

    It’s huge and he can argue vindicates his “tough” strategy.

    Sorry been off the scene all day what are the EU offering?
    Nothing just today’s fake news but if you want it was a seven year limit to the backstop
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    If the EU really are offering that concession Boris Johnson should fucking bite their hand off.

    It’s huge and he can argue vindicates his “tough” strategy.

    It’s probably too late though, since he’s shat away 21 of his own MPs.

    Most of the 21 will vote in favour of any negotiated deal - Stewart, Clarke, etc.

    I'll be very surprised if the EU offer a time limit. It would be a capitulation. I don't see how the Irish government would be able to explain it to their voters.

    We'll find out soon enough.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    GIN1138 said:

    JRM absolutely slaughtered channel 4 news. Fantastic performance.

    Makes me wonder why any Tories go on Channel 4 "Fuck The Tories" News.
    He is also the first govt minister in that interview to say that the govt are going to go through the courts on the "surrender" bill..I know it's been out there but this is first official confirmation.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    Charles said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    So Germany and France offered 7 years and the Commission knows nothing about it - farce..

    That’s not what they said

    They said the EU is not discussing it

    That’s true

    France & Germany are though...
    That's clutching at straws in my opinion
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    Andrew said:

    This is being negotiated at head-of-date level. The Commission has been shown to have fucked up.

    Would it even get through parliament now anyway? Corbyn would whip against, SNP/LD obviously not, some spartans would vote no too.

    Pay attention.

    There will be no extension from the EU. It will be a vote between Boris's Deal and No Deal.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    How on earth was Hillary last matched at 17 for Democratic nominee?

    She’s shorter than Buttigieg.

    Rumours this week she is entering the race. I can't see it myself.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Party Seats
    Conservative 288
    Labour 246
    Independent 35
    Scottish National Party 35
    Liberal Democrat 18
    Democratic Unionist Party 10
    Sinn Féin 7
    The Independent Group for Change 5
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Green Party 1
    Speaker 1

    So as of today JEZZA supposedly has 246+35+4+1 in the bag (286) Boris 288+ 10 (298) max at this stage

    So if the LD 18 get on board that makes it 298 for No Deal and 306 for Extension On 29th October (last chance saloon) No Deal is stopped) unless Ken Dominic and CHANGE UK lot decide at the last hour to back No Deal

    .
    But do they have to? how many MPs will abstain? and how many would need to to allow it to happen?
    By my reckoning Corbyn is at best 2 ahead before the indies come into play. Of them, only OMara, Rent Boy Vaz, Williamson and Hopkins are likely to back him, about 8 will oppose and the ex Tories will abstain or vote against
    The Eastbourne ex LD might support Corbyn.
    As he resigned as he feels Brexit must be delivered and promised his electors I have him as abstaining
    He is strongly against No Deal. Not sure what Frank Field would do.
    Abstain or against. Corbyn made enemies he will not be able to convince
    Where are your workings i reckon there is every chance

    Do we agree 304 - 298 starting point

    Then HOEY and Mann makes it 302-300

    Jezza definitely gets O Mara Vaz and Williamson so 305 -300

    So CHANGE UK Abstain so still 5up

    21 Tories Handful with Jezza how many abstain Surely not many vote for No Deal

    We must be close to proving LDs are crucial block??
    None of the ex Tories will vote for him (Clarke and bebb wont I think even having mused it in passing) many will abstain, a few like Soames have categorically stated they will not allow Corbyn to become PM
    Of the indies, field, Austin, Lewis, elphicke, woodcock are going fo vote against him
    I also think change and the firmer change indies may well vote against him
    I think Bebb and Clarke might well go for Corbyn in the end.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    If the EU really are offering that concession Boris Johnson should fucking bite their hand off.

    It’s huge and he can argue vindicates his “tough” strategy.

    It’s probably too late though, since he’s shat away 21 of his own MPs.

    Most of the 21 will vote in favour of any negotiated deal - Stewart, Clarke, etc.

    I'll be very surprised if the EU offer a time limit. It would be a capitulation. I don't see how the Irish government would be able to explain it to their voters.

    We'll find out soon enough.
    Because it’s a can kick, and the EU love can kicks.

    We’ll find out soon enough.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    nichomar said:

    Anorak said:

    #JoSwinsonIsATory is trending. There are a *lot* of utter morons out there who understand neither convention, law, or simple maths.
    https://twitter.com/search?q=#JoSwinsonIsATory&src=trend_click

    An organized disgraceful slur by people who are more scared of the lib dems than the Tory’s I s a shame they haven’t got a few doors to knock on
    You see what's happening, though - we are falling out over this, making BOTH Lab->Lib and Lib->Lab tactical voting less likely. There is only one beneficiary from that, and it isn't either of our parties. That's why Jo should eventually say "OK, we'll vote for it, let's see if you've got the numbers". But I agree that it needs to happen after Oct 17 - for now, I suggest both parties hold fire.
    I love that. How about Labour saying 'OK, Corbyn is a bit of a problem, this is a cross-party initiative so let's go for a compromise candidate'. I mean, I realise that that might have to be Margaret Beckett, who as we know is practically a Tory, but needs must, eh?
    The choosing of a PM to replace Johnson looks like a re-run of Brexit itself. We can see that there is a majority against all of the candidates, and neither side is willing to compromise so that a majority in favour of one individual can be achieved.

    Who do they apply to for an extension to the replacing Boris Johnson process?
    Should Johnson decide to dig his heels in and disobey the Benn Act, Parliament may end up having to pass panic legislation to authorise somebody else other than the Prime Minister to go and ask for the extension, and hope that the EU27 are receptive. Too many Labour MPs will back Corbyn come-what-may as the alternative PM, too many non-Labour MPs won't stomach him.

    Unless, of course, Dominic Grieve is right and the Queen will sack Johnson if he breaks the law. Then, presumably, she would have to call for the Leader of the Opposition, and Corbyn would have ample time to request the extension even if successfully no confidenced? That'd get us to an A50 extension and a snap GE without Parliament having to vote in a replacement for Johnson.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,731

    ydoethur said:

    Where are your workings i reckon there is every chance

    Do we agree 304 - 298 starting point

    No.
    Why? with 18 LDs 246 Lab 35SNP 4PC 1 Green =304
    Because the 18 Lib Dems would not vote with Corbyn. So the starting point is Lab 246 SNP 35 and 1 Green, possibly also PC, which is 286.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    humbugger said:

    kinabalu said:

    The time limited backstop is the concession I thought they would give May.

    I've no idea whether the time limited backstop is in play now, but either way the EU had no need to offer it to May as they knew she'd never leave without a deal. With Boris it's probably different.
    If Boris gets any meaningful concession, it is absolutely damning of May's negotiating position.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    GIN1138 said:

    If the EU really are offering that concession Boris Johnson should fucking bite their hand off.

    It’s huge and he can argue vindicates his “tough” strategy.

    Sorry been off the scene all day what are the EU offering?
    Rumours France and Germany are discussing whether to time limit the backstop.

    Commission in strenuous denial.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    I see that @bigjohnowls is so threatened by Jo Swinson that he hasn’t shut up about her for hours. Telling.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    Andrew said:

    This is being negotiated at head-of-date level. The Commission has been shown to have fucked up.

    Would it even get through parliament now anyway? Corbyn would whip against, SNP/LD obviously not, some spartans would vote no too.

    Pay attention.

    There will be no extension from the EU. It will be a vote between Boris's Deal and No Deal.
    There is no Boris deal...
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    I see that @bigjohnowls is so threatened by Jo Swinson that he hasn’t shut up about her for hours. Telling.

    She’s so irrelevant that Malc can’t stop telling us so
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,731

    GIN1138 said:

    If the EU really are offering that concession Boris Johnson should fucking bite their hand off.

    It’s huge and he can argue vindicates his “tough” strategy.

    Sorry been off the scene all day what are the EU offering?
    Rumours France and Germany are discussing whether to time limit the backstop.

    Commission in strenuous denial.
    It would be the ultimate humiliation for Juncker in the dog days of his disastrous Commission if he was bypassed on such a thing.

    But I really would be surprised if they upset Barnier and Sophie in 't Veld, not to mention Varadkar, in such a way. Delighted, admittedly, but surprised.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,731
    DougSeal said:

    I see that @bigjohnowls is so threatened by Jo Swinson that he hasn’t shut up about her for hours. Telling.

    She’s so irrelevant that Malc can’t stop telling us so
    He's giving her some Ayr time.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Whatever the LDs and ChangeUK think of Corbyn, I find it difficult to see how they can avoid voting against Johnson on a VNOC. Who they might support thereafter is a separate issue - but ,in my view, they would have to be seen to bring Johnson down.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    justin124 said:

    Whatever the LDs and ChangeUK think of Corbyn, I find it difficult to see how they can avoid voting against Johnson on a VNOC. Who they might support thereafter is a separate issue - but ,in my view, they would have to be seen to bring Johnson down.

    That's certain, yes
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,731
    justin124 said:

    Whatever the LDs and ChangeUK think of Corbyn, I find it difficult to see how they can avoid voting against Johnson on a VNOC. Who they might support thereafter is a separate issue - but ,in my view, they would have to be seen to bring Johnson down.

    Being against Johnson is rather different from being for Corbyn. Check out my posting history if you don't believe me.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Where are your workings i reckon there is every chance

    Do we agree 304 - 298 starting point

    No.
    Why? with 18 LDs 246 Lab 35SNP 4PC 1 Green =304
    Because the 18 Lib Dems would not vote with Corbyn. So the starting point is Lab 246 SNP 35 and 1 Green, possibly also PC, which is 286.
    I rather agree - plus circa 4 Independents such as Hopkins, Williamson etc - to give 290.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    Whatever the LDs and ChangeUK think of Corbyn, I find it difficult to see how they can avoid voting against Johnson on a VNOC. Who they might support thereafter is a separate issue - but ,in my view, they would have to be seen to bring Johnson down.

    Being against Johnson is rather different from being for Corbyn. Check out my posting history if you don't believe me.
    I agree!
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    ydoethur said:

    How on earth was Hillary last matched at 17 for Democratic nominee?

    She’s shorter than Buttigieg.

    I didn't think the presidency was about the physical size of the candidates.
    About 2/3 of the time the taller candidate wins.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heights_of_presidents_and_presidential_candidates_of_the_United_States#Comparative_table_of_heights_of_United_States_presidential_candidates
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    justin124 said:

    Whatever the LDs and ChangeUK think of Corbyn, I find it difficult to see how they can avoid voting against Johnson on a VNOC. Who they might support thereafter is a separate issue - but ,in my view, they would have to be seen to bring Johnson down.

    That is the thing, they will happily vote down Johnson and the ticking clock will force the parties into making a concession. Someone will move it's just a case of who
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Perfect storm scenario - boris comes back with any casserole of nonsense you like, its voted through by the relieved commons labour leavers and ex Tories. Corbyn springs a VONC which just passes but no alternative PM can be agreed due to it no longer being urgent, we go to the polls with Boris having delivered Brexit and the victim of an attempted opposition coup just as he won Brexit for the nation.
    Con gain Sheffield Brightside ;)
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    justin124 said:

    Whatever the LDs and ChangeUK think of Corbyn, I find it difficult to see how they can avoid voting against Johnson on a VNOC. Who they might support thereafter is a separate issue - but ,in my view, they would have to be seen to bring Johnson down.

    It all depends when it happens you can VONC Johnson on 1/11 if the benn act has been implemented without supporting corbyn. If Johnson won’t obey the law it goes to the courts. There is no way I can see that Swinson has to back corbyn to stop no deal.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited October 2019
    timmo said:

    GIN1138 said:

    JRM absolutely slaughtered channel 4 news. Fantastic performance.

    Makes me wonder why any Tories go on Channel 4 "Fuck The Tories" News.
    He is also the first govt minister in that interview to say that the govt are going to go through the courts on the "surrender" bill..I know it's been out there but this is first official confirmation.
    Some of their avenues won’t even get past the High Court . Their tactic will probably be to get the right wing press to attack the judges in the hope they’ll cave in under fear of the linch mob !

    There’s zip chance of the court suspending the Benn Act , that will implode in the high court because of Padfield .

    They’re unlikely to even get Leave to appeal on overturning that .

    Really though this looks like a desperate attempt to frighten the opposition into a VONC.

    Their best chance is to incite riots and hope they can use the CCA emergency powers even though that will likely fail !
  • timmo said:

    GIN1138 said:

    JRM absolutely slaughtered channel 4 news. Fantastic performance.

    Makes me wonder why any Tories go on Channel 4 "Fuck The Tories" News.
    He is also the first govt minister in that interview to say that the govt are going to go through the courts on the "surrender" bill..I know it's been out there but this is first official confirmation.
    So all that stuff about pompous, self-important judges interfering in political decisions...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    Is there a catch in adopting the “basic” Betfair package with 2% commission?

    I’m not interested in free spins or all that ancillary rubbish.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    Foxy said:

    Andrew said:

    This is being negotiated at head-of-date level. The Commission has been shown to have fucked up.

    Would it even get through parliament now anyway? Corbyn would whip against, SNP/LD obviously not, some spartans would vote no too.

    Pay attention.

    There will be no extension from the EU. It will be a vote between Boris's Deal and No Deal.
    There is no Boris deal...
    You desperately hope.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,731
    edited October 2019
    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    Whatever the LDs and ChangeUK think of Corbyn, I find it difficult to see how they can avoid voting against Johnson on a VNOC. Who they might support thereafter is a separate issue - but ,in my view, they would have to be seen to bring Johnson down.

    Being against Johnson is rather different from being for Corbyn. Check out my posting history if you don't believe me.
    I agree!
    Dear heaven, two posts in succession where you agreed with me, immediately after I nearly stated public agreement with one of yours.

    The Four Horsemen have officially saddled up and are getting ready to ride.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    nico67 said:

    timmo said:

    GIN1138 said:

    JRM absolutely slaughtered channel 4 news. Fantastic performance.

    Makes me wonder why any Tories go on Channel 4 "Fuck The Tories" News.
    He is also the first govt minister in that interview to say that the govt are going to go through the courts on the "surrender" bill..I know it's been out there but this is first official confirmation.
    Some of their avenues won’t even get past the High Court . Their tactic will probably be to get the right wing press to attack the judges in the hope they’ll cave in under fear of the linch mob !

    There’s zip chance of the court suspending the Benn Act , that will implode in the high court because of Padfield .

    They’re unlikely to even get Leave to appeal on overturning that .

    Really though this looks like a desperate attempt to frighten the opposition into a VONC.

    They’re best chance is to incite riots and hope they can use the CCA emergency powers even though that will likely fail !
    Or possibly the target audience is across the channel?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Where are the MORI Voting Intention numbers?

    The results of supplementary questions (ie best PM etc) were released yesterday.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,712

    I see that @bigjohnowls is so threatened by Jo Swinson that he hasn’t shut up about her for hours. Telling.

    Has she stopped BREXIT yet?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    nichomar said:

    Anorak said:

    #JoSwinsonIsATory is trending. There are a *lot* of utter morons out there who understand neither convention, law, or simple maths.
    https://twitter.com/search?q=#JoSwinsonIsATory&src=trend_click

    An organized disgraceful slur by people who are more scared of the lib dems than the Tory’s I s a shame they haven’t got a few doors to knock on
    You see what's happening, though - we are falling out over this, making BOTH Lab->Lib and Lib->Lab tactical voting less likely. There is only one beneficiary from that, and it isn't either of our parties. That's why Jo should eventually say "OK, we'll vote for it, let's see if you've got the numbers". But I agree that it needs to happen after Oct 17 - for now, I suggest both parties hold fire.
    I love that. How about Labour saying 'OK, Corbyn is a bit of a problem, this is a cross-party initiative so let's go for a compromise candidate'. I mean, I realise that that might have to be Margaret Beckett, who as we know is practically a Tory, but needs must, eh?
    The choosing of a PM to replace Johnson looks like a re-run of Brexit itself. We can see that there is a majority against all of the candidates, and neither side is willing to compromise so that a majority in favour of one individual can be achieved.

    Who do they apply to for an extension to the replacing Boris Johnson process?
    Should Johnson decide to dig his heels in and disobey the Benn Act, Parliament may end up having to pass panic legislation to authorise somebody else other than the Prime Minister to go and ask for the extension, and hope that the EU27 are receptive. Too many Labour MPs will back Corbyn come-what-may as the alternative PM, too many non-Labour MPs won't stomach him.

    Unless, of course, Dominic Grieve is right and the Queen will sack Johnson if he breaks the law. Then, presumably, she would have to call for the Leader of the Opposition, and Corbyn would have ample time to request the extension even if successfully no confidenced? That'd get us to an A50 extension and a snap GE without Parliament having to vote in a replacement for Johnson.
    Yes. If Johnson resigns, or the Queen snaps, then Swinson is free. Corbyn becomes PM, Swinson can support a no confidence vote against him and Corbyn remains PM until the GE with the power to request an extension to Article 50.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    nico67 said:

    timmo said:

    GIN1138 said:

    JRM absolutely slaughtered channel 4 news. Fantastic performance.

    Makes me wonder why any Tories go on Channel 4 "Fuck The Tories" News.
    He is also the first govt minister in that interview to say that the govt are going to go through the courts on the "surrender" bill..I know it's been out there but this is first official confirmation.
    Some of their avenues won’t even get past the High Court . Their tactic will probably be to get the right wing press to attack the judges in the hope they’ll cave in under fear of the linch mob !

    There’s zip chance of the court suspending the Benn Act , that will implode in the high court because of Padfield .

    They’re unlikely to even get Leave to appeal on overturning that .

    Really though this looks like a desperate attempt to frighten the opposition into a VONC.

    Their best chance is to incite riots and hope they can use the CCA emergency powers even though that will likely fail !
    People don't riot in the October rain, and not sure that Leave could round up enough boot boys in in heavily Remain London. Riots in Hartlepool may not be so newsworthy...
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    nico67 said:

    timmo said:

    GIN1138 said:

    JRM absolutely slaughtered channel 4 news. Fantastic performance.

    Makes me wonder why any Tories go on Channel 4 "Fuck The Tories" News.
    He is also the first govt minister in that interview to say that the govt are going to go through the courts on the "surrender" bill..I know it's been out there but this is first official confirmation.
    Some of their avenues won’t even get past the High Court . Their tactic will probably be to get the right wing press to attack the judges in the hope they’ll cave in under fear of the linch mob !

    There’s zip chance of the court suspending the Benn Act , that will implode in the high court because of Padfield .

    They’re unlikely to even get Leave to appeal on overturning that .

    Really though this looks like a desperate attempt to frighten the opposition into a VONC.

    Their best chance is to incite riots and hope they can use the CCA emergency powers even though that will likely fail !
    Having been threatened on a town council by tories that they would seek legal sanctions against me for raising the town precept by £25 I would believe anything from them
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,846
    humbugger said:

    I've no idea whether the time limited backstop is in play now, but either way the EU had no need to offer it to May as they knew she'd never leave without a deal. With Boris it's probably different.

    It's not about fear of No Deal. It's about whether they feel offering this (minor but meaningful) concession will make the difference in getting the WA through parliament. They judged that under May it would not. If they offer it to Johnson it means they think under him it will.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    I see that @bigjohnowls is so threatened by Jo Swinson that he hasn’t shut up about her for hours. Telling.

    Has she stopped BREXIT yet?
    No. And what?
This discussion has been closed.