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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Endgame. The death of the referendum mandate draws near

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  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Perfect storm scenario - boris comes back with any casserole of nonsense you like, its voted through by the relieved commons labour leavers and ex Tories. Corbyn springs a VONC which just passes but no alternative PM can be agreed due to it no longer being urgent, we go to the polls with Boris having delivered Brexit and the victim of an attempted opposition coup just as he won Brexit for the nation.
    Con gain Sheffield Brightside ;)


    Corbyn is shit scared of an election he won’t willingly go there, but it’s as always, complicated
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    spudgfsh said:

    justin124 said:

    Whatever the LDs and ChangeUK think of Corbyn, I find it difficult to see how they can avoid voting against Johnson on a VNOC. Who they might support thereafter is a separate issue - but ,in my view, they would have to be seen to bring Johnson down.

    That is the thing, they will happily vote down Johnson and the ticking clock will force the parties into making a concession. Someone will move it's just a case of who
    Why are they going to to vote dow Boris on a VONC if he gets a deal?

    Hint: they won't. Plenty will be washing their hair that night.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,765
    This thread has been

    No confidenced

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited October 2019
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    nico67 said:

    humbugger said:

    Good evening all.

    Interesting exchange downthread regarding nico67's comments about Priti Patel and the subsequent accusations the comments were racist. I've no idea whether nico67 is racist or not (I hope not), but the exchange illustrated how easy it is to be a little clumsy with words thereby exposing oneself to allegations of an ism of some sort. Twitter is of course full of such examples.

    It's also the case that malicious allegations of any sort can be very difficult to disprove, especially in the short term. Witness those against Leon Brittain. Men in particular are most vulnerable to such allegations.

    My comments were taken the wrong way . My point was I detest Patel and basically it would be great if she left the country, if she hadn’t been Home Secretary I wouldn’t have mentioned deportation as it’s not something in relation to her job . If say Patel’s job was taken by IDS I would have said I hope he deports himself merely to highlight I think the country would be a better place with him out of it .

    Anyway just thought I’d clear that up , I can understand some might have misconstrued my comments.
    Iain Duncan Smith is perhaps a bad example, given he's also mixed race.
    He is as vile if not worse than Patel more like.
    Absolutely Malc. The worst of the worst - a Jock Guard.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Perfect storm scenario - boris comes back with any casserole of nonsense you like, its voted through by the relieved commons labour leavers and ex Tories. Corbyn springs a VONC which just passes but no alternative PM can be agreed due to it no longer being urgent, we go to the polls with Boris having delivered Brexit and the victim of an attempted opposition coup just as he won Brexit for the nation.
    Con gain Sheffield Brightside ;)

    Perfect storm scenario - boris comes back with any casserole of nonsense you like, its voted through by the relieved commons labour leavers and ex Tories. Corbyn springs a VONC which just passes but no alternative PM can be agreed due to it no longer being urgent, we go to the polls with Boris having delivered Brexit and the victim of an attempted opposition coup just as he won Brexit for the nation.
    Con gain Sheffield Brightside ;)

    I suspect the VNOC will be tabled in advance of any Deal being presented - with Johnson having already been defeated on the Queens Speech.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    justin124 said:

    Perfect storm scenario - boris comes back with any casserole of nonsense you like, its voted through by the relieved commons labour leavers and ex Tories. Corbyn springs a VONC which just passes but no alternative PM can be agreed due to it no longer being urgent, we go to the polls with Boris having delivered Brexit and the victim of an attempted opposition coup just as he won Brexit for the nation.
    Con gain Sheffield Brightside ;)

    Perfect storm scenario - boris comes back with any casserole of nonsense you like, its voted through by the relieved commons labour leavers and ex Tories. Corbyn springs a VONC which just passes but no alternative PM can be agreed due to it no longer being urgent, we go to the polls with Boris having delivered Brexit and the victim of an attempted opposition coup just as he won Brexit for the nation.
    Con gain Sheffield Brightside ;)

    I suspect the VNOC will be tabled in advance of any Deal being presented - with Johnson having already been defeated on the Queens Speech.
    There isn't a queen's speech due.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    philiph said:

    justin124 said:

    Perfect storm scenario - boris comes back with any casserole of nonsense you like, its voted through by the relieved commons labour leavers and ex Tories. Corbyn springs a VONC which just passes but no alternative PM can be agreed due to it no longer being urgent, we go to the polls with Boris having delivered Brexit and the victim of an attempted opposition coup just as he won Brexit for the nation.
    Con gain Sheffield Brightside ;)

    Perfect storm scenario - boris comes back with any casserole of nonsense you like, its voted through by the relieved commons labour leavers and ex Tories. Corbyn springs a VONC which just passes but no alternative PM can be agreed due to it no longer being urgent, we go to the polls with Boris having delivered Brexit and the victim of an attempted opposition coup just as he won Brexit for the nation.
    Con gain Sheffield Brightside ;)

    I suspect the VNOC will be tabled in advance of any Deal being presented - with Johnson having already been defeated on the Queens Speech.
    There isn't a queen's speech due.
    14th October? Followed by several days of debate.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    justin124 said:

    Perfect storm scenario - boris comes back with any casserole of nonsense you like, its voted through by the relieved commons labour leavers and ex Tories. Corbyn springs a VONC which just passes but no alternative PM can be agreed due to it no longer being urgent, we go to the polls with Boris having delivered Brexit and the victim of an attempted opposition coup just as he won Brexit for the nation.
    Con gain Sheffield Brightside ;)

    Perfect storm scenario - boris comes back with any casserole of nonsense you like, its voted through by the relieved commons labour leavers and ex Tories. Corbyn springs a VONC which just passes but no alternative PM can be agreed due to it no longer being urgent, we go to the polls with Boris having delivered Brexit and the victim of an attempted opposition coup just as he won Brexit for the nation.
    Con gain Sheffield Brightside ;)

    I suspect the VNOC will be tabled in advance of any Deal being presented - with Johnson having already been defeated on the Queens Speech.
    If word comes out that there has been movement on the backstop, that should be enough to allow the VONC to fail so Boris has time to present his deal.
  • timpletimple Posts: 117
    Noo said:

    Patel talking bollocks at the conference:
    "It is to end the free movement of people once and for all.
    Instead we will introduce an Australian style points-based immigration system.
    One that works in the best interests of Britain.
    One that attracts and welcomes the brightest and the best.
    One that supports brilliant scientists, the finest academics"

    As someone who has been through the process of migrating within the EU and outside of the EU, I can tell you the process of going through an immigration system that requires all the kind of upfront evidence that Patel is talking about is a royal pain in the arse. Frankly, it will put large numbers of people who would qualify off even completing the application.
    So what, I hear you say. Well, even if you will breeze through the requirements, the time and money invested in applying is a barrier. And the real creme de la creme in science are people who will bring large grants with them, which are used to hire multiple people to a project. Those people will be put off applying here because they know the application process will be harder for the postdoc and PhD students they will want to hire. There is a a double-whammy of increasing the burden to get hired, and then to hire.
    On top of all that, there is a giant competitor on our doorstep where 27 countries have free movement. If you want to set up a new research lab somewhere in Europe, EU countries will be more competitive because you have a larger pool to fish in. UK graduates are a minority of European graduates. If it were the other way around, this policy would suck investment into the UK from the EU. As it is,
    it'll harm investment.
    Patel's policy will control immigration numbers, but repel the brightest and best for purely pragmatic reasons.

    Scott_P said:

    Drutt said:

    Any form of leave, in short, is legitimate. And no form of remain is.

    Even if that were true, it runs smack into the headbangers.

    Before the Vote, Norway was a legitimate Leave option.*

    Now it isn't.*

    *According to Brexiteers.

    The legitimacy of what happens next will be decided at the ballot box, not by the language lawyers
    If I could be sure we were getting a Norway option, staying in the SM, even as a Remain supporter, I could live with it. In some ways a couple of decades of pennance accepting the rules (with some face saving EEA mechanism) of Brussels and paying into the kitty and not inflicting Farage and his band of morons on them is preferable.

    The problem is that Leavers are not offering that. And even if they were offering that, with what has happened, and the way they conducted the referendum and during the negotiations I don't trust them a cm.
  • timpletimple Posts: 117

    TOPPING said:

    Drutt said:



    *Obviously, I am.

    That, sadly, was in the hands of the voters. They didn't foresee the consequences of voting "Leave" and laid themselves open to any and every kind of interpretation from Norway to No Deal.

    Similarly with Leavers, some even here on PB, who find themselves amazed that we are currently where we are. That it should have been a gigantic clusterfuck ought to have been the central premise of anyone engaging in scenario analysis of what their leave vote might mean. Sadly, all too little of this was done and people picked the bit of leaving they liked the look of, not realising the pandora's box (sans l'espoir) they had opened.

    They are idiots but such is the way with elections. It would be the same thing if, come the next GE, people voted for Jeremy Corbyn and then wondered why Tescos (or The Central No. 2 Industrial Retail Outlet as it might become), had run out of avocados.
    I think it was one of those decisions where it was fair, on the part of the public, to say we vote to Leave and then leave it up to the politicians to decide what form it took. Then, if the voters didn't like what the politicians had agreed, at the next General Election they could have their made their opinions clear. At the end of the day, if you say the electorate didn't agree No Deal, then the same argument could be made for all of the options - they didn't agree EFTA / EEA, "soft" Brexit etc etc.
    Which uncovers the problem with Leave. No single form of leaving can have a hope of getting close to the 48% that voted Remain.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    timple said:

    TOPPING said:

    Drutt said:



    *Obviously, I am.

    That, sadly, was in the hands of the voters. They didn't foresee the consequences of voting "Leave" and laid themselves open to any and every kind of interpretation from Norway to No Deal.

    Similarly with Leavers, some even here on PB, who find themselves amazed that we are currently where we are. That it should have been a gigantic clusterfuck ought to have been the central premise of anyone engaging in scenario analysis of what their leave vote might mean. Sadly, all too little of this was done and people picked the bit of leaving they liked the look of, not realising the pandora's box (sans l'espoir) they had opened.

    They are idiots but such is the way with elections. It would be the same thing if, come the next GE, people voted for Jeremy Corbyn and then wondered why Tescos (or The Central No. 2 Industrial Retail Outlet as it might become), had run out of avocados.
    I think it was one of those decisions where it was fair, on the part of the public, to say we vote to Leave and then leave it up to the politicians to decide what form it took. Then, if the voters didn't like what the politicians had agreed, at the next General Election they could have their made their opinions clear. At the end of the day, if you say the electorate didn't agree No Deal, then the same argument could be made for all of the options - they didn't agree EFTA / EEA, "soft" Brexit etc etc.
    Which uncovers the problem with Leave. No single form of leaving can have a hope of getting close to the 48% that voted Remain.
    It was a binary choice. Just bloody well leave any way you can vs Remain
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    timple said:

    Noo said:

    Patel talking bollocks at the conference:
    "It is to end the free movement of people once and for all.
    Instead we will introduce an Australian style points-based immigration system.
    One that works in the best interests of Britain.
    One that attracts and welcomes the brightest and the best.
    One that supports brilliant scientists, the finest academics"

    As someone who has been through the process of migrating within the EU and outside of the EU, I can tell you the process of going through an immigration system that requires all the kind of upfront evidence that Patel is talking about is a royal pain in the arse. Frankly, it will put large numbers of people who would qualify off even completing the application.
    So what, I hear you say. Well, even if you will breeze through the requirements, the time and money invested in applying is a barrier. And the real creme de la creme in science are people who will bring large grants with them, which are used to hire multiple people to a project. Those people will be put off applying here because they know the application process will be harder for the postdoc and PhD students they will want to hire. There is a a double-whammy of increasing the burden to get hired, and then to hire.
    On top of all that, there is a giant competitor on our doorstep where 27 countries have free movement. If you want to set up a new research lab somewhere in Europe, EU countries will be more competitive because you have a larger pool to fish in. UK graduates are a minority of European graduates. If it were the other way around, this policy would suck investment into the UK from the EU. As it is,
    it'll harm investment.
    Patel's policy will control immigration numbers, but repel the brightest and best for purely pragmatic reasons.

    Scott_P said:

    Drutt said:

    Any form of leave, in short, is legitimate. And no form of remain is.

    Even if that were true, it runs smack into the headbangers.

    Before the Vote, Norway was a legitimate Leave option.*

    Now it isn't.*

    *According to Brexiteers.

    The legitimacy of what happens next will be decided at the ballot box, not by the language lawyers
    If I could be sure we were getting a Norway option, staying in the SM, even as a Remain supporter, I could live with it. In some ways a couple of decades of pennance accepting the rules (with some face saving EEA mechanism) of Brussels and paying into the kitty and not inflicting Farage and his band of morons on them is preferable.

    The problem is that Leavers are not offering that. And even if they were offering that, with what has happened, and the way they conducted the referendum and during the negotiations I don't trust them a cm.
    I don't think Farage would go away
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    It seems everyone has already left so I shall too
This discussion has been closed.