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SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited October 2 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Once again the betting moves to the general election taking place later rather than sooner

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  • I don't think you can have an election in December in modern Britain. The whole of December is ' Winterval ' and broadcasters, advertisers, retailers and activists will absolutely hate it. There would be a backlash in Scotland because of the weather and light. Closing schools for polling stations will create social media outrage over cancelled Nativity plays etc etc. I just think whoever calls it risks a backlash.
  • Remembrance Sunday and Armistice Day are compact this year on 10th and 11th of November. Any election campaign spanning them would need at least a 48hr campaign suspention as well as a protocol agreed with the CofE, Palace and British Legion so events aren't dragged into it. While this is not insurmountable many will question the taste of deliberately clashing a divisive campaign with the immeadiate run up. It's also a hostage to fortune having a Brexit election while memories of war are being aired.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,561
    edited October 2

    I don't think you can have an election in December in modern Britain. The whole of December is ' Winterval ' and broadcasters, advertisers, retailers and activists will absolutely hate it. There would be a backlash in Scotland because of the weather and light. Closing schools for polling stations will create social media outrage over cancelled Nativity plays etc etc. I just think whoever calls it risks a backlash.

    Ah nativity plays. It is a long long time since my kids were appearing in these and I would have loved the excuse not to be there. I like the story of when Joseph asked if there was room at the inn the child playing the innkeeper replied Yes thus undermining the rationale for the rest of the play.
  • Diwali on 27th October, Hallowe'en on 31st October, Bonfire Night 5th November. While individually or collectively they aren't a deal breaker there is a good psychological reason they exist. They are all astonomical/lunar markers of the beginning of Winter and the dark quarter of the year.
  • I don't think you can have an election in December in modern Britain. The whole of December is ' Winterval ' and broadcasters, advertisers, retailers and activists will absolutely hate it. There would be a backlash in Scotland because of the weather and light. Closing schools for polling stations will create social media outrage over cancelled Nativity plays etc etc. I just think whoever calls it risks a backlash.

    Ah nativity plays. It is a long long time since my kids were appearing in these and I would have loved the excuse not to be there. I like the story of when Joseph asked if there was room at the inn the child playing the innkeeper replied Yes thus undermining the rationale for the rest of the play.
    Bah Humbug !
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 377
    Is there a significant difference in the cost of buying advertising in newspapers and billboards during the Christmas shopping season ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,995
    I did nicely out of laying September and October and would have placed a smaller bet against November had Betfair not been blocked while I am in the US. I agree with Mike that this could easily extend into 2020. Also lay 2022.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,025

    Diwali on 27th October, Hallowe'en on 31st October, Bonfire Night 5th November. While individually or collectively they aren't a deal breaker there is a good psychological reason they exist. They are all astonomical/lunar markers of the beginning of Winter and the dark quarter of the year.

    There may be other reasons for 5th November, now increasingly forgotten and overshadowed by fireworks for Diwali and even New Year's Eve.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,501
    "Scottish court to decide whether Boris Johnson can be jailed over no-deal Brexit"

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/crime/scottish-court-to-decide-whether-boris-johnson-can-be-jailed-over-no-deal-brexit-1-5015160
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,025
    On topic, being too late for the 2/1 against 2020 or later, I have cashed out of that market. Given the FTPA timetable of 2 weeks plus 5 weeks, there is hardly any of November left, and December seems unlikely for the reasons OGH gives, though not impossible. I've left an earlier bet on 2020 (but not later) running.

    One risk is that, like the countdown to the First World War, no-one is truly in command of events.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,381
    OT, I thought this was really interesting. There was a suggestion that he was doing the same thing in that interview when he said that weird stuff about making cardboard models of buses, which then started to displace the famous lie on the side of one.

    I'm not sure I believe it though, I think he just has a lot of sex and corruption scandals, so whichever word he uses tends to displace one.

  • I've just laid a 2019 election at 1.64 on Betfair. Given how late it is in the year and the statutory framework around elections I still think there is a tad of value in that. Only a fiver stake but it will pay out on New Years Day if it comes off. Click on Politics then UK General Election.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,025

    OT, I thought this was really interesting. There was a suggestion that he was doing the same thing in that interview when he said that weird stuff about making cardboard models of buses, which then started to displace the famous lie on the side of one.

    I'm not sure I believe it though, I think he just has a lot of sex and corruption scandals, so whichever word he uses tends to displace one.

    Does Boris know any cyber-experts? *Innocent face*
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 215

    OT, I thought this was really interesting. There was a suggestion that he was doing the same thing in that interview when he said that weird stuff about making cardboard models of buses, which then started to displace the famous lie on the side of one.

    I'm not sure I believe it though, I think he just has a lot of sex and corruption scandals, so whichever word he uses tends to displace one.

    Does Boris know any cyber-experts? *Innocent face*
    When I google "Boris Johnson Bus" or "Boris Johnson Model" I get a bunch of blogs saying that he is trying to manipulate the internet by making odd public statements.

    I'd guess the Bus thing is more traditional political psychology. What did you think of 5 years ago when you heard Bus in the context of Boris? The new Routemaster.

    But after 2016? "Lies" on the side of a bus.

    Now? An idiosyncratic hobby (recency effect) and the Routemaster (primacy effect). Job done.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 215
    What are the odds do people think on the government being in a position to put forward an MV4 before the month is out?

    I’d guess that if it feels it has something it can sponsor (with DUP support), it would pass. The Rorys of this world would surely rather swallow their pride and vote for it in return for the whip being restored, than losing at the election.

    Where does such a scenario leave the date for the next election? 2022?

  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,224
    moonshine said:

    What are the odds do people think on the government being in a position to put forward an MV4 before the month is out?

    I’d guess that if it feels it has something it can sponsor (with DUP support), it would pass. The Rorys of this world would surely rather swallow their pride and vote for it in return for the whip being restored, than losing at the election.

    Where does such a scenario leave the date for the next election? 2022?

    No way, even if the Tory rebels came back, the govt has a majority of 0.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 215

    moonshine said:

    What are the odds do people think on the government being in a position to put forward an MV4 before the month is out?

    I’d guess that if it feels it has something it can sponsor (with DUP support), it would pass. The Rorys of this world would surely rather swallow their pride and vote for it in return for the whip being restored, than losing at the election.

    Where does such a scenario leave the date for the next election? 2022?

    No way, even if the Tory rebels came back, the govt has a majority of 0.
    And yet the Brady amendment passed easily. I’m not saying it’s likely the EU will reach agreement with the govt but if they do I reckon it’s locked on to pass.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307
    I fully agree. I have been a consistent layer of 2019 and I laid a substantial amount at 1.21. It’s traded as short as 1.06!

    This, and the month market, are currently my biggest open bets. I’m expecting to collect.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,546
    Johnson wants an election, Corbyn and the SNP have said they want an election when an extension has been secured. Johnson and Corbyn both lead the biggest groups in parliament and the SNP are the next biggest block.

    So I have been thinking we are going to have an election pretty soon, I suppose they could change their mind. Maybe Johnson doesn't want it after we extend or the SNP and Corbyn decide to go for a referendum first but I got the feeling they all wanted the election (after extension in SNP and Corbyn's case)
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,456
    Laying November at 6.4 seems fairly safe (famous last words)...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,200
    This poll is shows why impeachment is always an uphill battle:

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/463948-poll-just-40-percent-of-republicans-say-trump-mentioned
    Just 4 in 10 Republicans say they think President Trump discussed an investigation into Democratic presidential rival Joe Biden during a phone call with Ukraine's president, despite Trump acknowledging having done so, according to a new Monmouth University poll.

    The survey, which was released Tuesday, found that 40 percent of Republican respondents said Trump "probably did" raise the idea of an investigation into Biden and Biden's son over unsubstantiated allegations of corruption during a July 25 conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Meanwhile, 29 percent of Republicans said Trump "probably did not" mention an investigation into Biden.


    Details here:
    https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_100119.pdf/

    Note that 40% of respondents are happy to believe Trump’s counterallegations about Biden, for which there is pretty scant evidence:
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,701
    Why would the EU bother agreeing to a further three month extension without an election this year? If November and December are out, January has to be too as the campaign cannot begin until next year gets underway. I cannot see past November - unless we do crash out on 31st October. If that happens then we definitely will not get an election until well into 2020 at the earliest.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307

    Why would the EU bother agreeing to a further three month extension without an election this year? If November and December are out, January has to be too as the campaign cannot begin until next year gets underway. I cannot see past November - unless we do crash out on 31st October. If that happens then we definitely will not get an election until well into 2020 at the earliest.

    November is only possible with all party agreement if the two thirds vote is held by 24 October. For a November election via a vote of no confidence, the vote needs to take place by 10 October.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,701

    Why would the EU bother agreeing to a further three month extension without an election this year? If November and December are out, January has to be too as the campaign cannot begin until next year gets underway. I cannot see past November - unless we do crash out on 31st October. If that happens then we definitely will not get an election until well into 2020 at the earliest.

    November is only possible with all party agreement if the two thirds vote is held by 24 October. For a November election via a vote of no confidence, the vote needs to take place by 10 October.

    To get an extension we need a November election. Without one, why would the EU bother? It looks to me like this is Johnson's cunning plan.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,229

    Why would the EU bother agreeing to a further three month extension without an election this year? If November and December are out, January has to be too as the campaign cannot begin until next year gets underway. I cannot see past November - unless we do crash out on 31st October. If that happens then we definitely will not get an election until well into 2020 at the earliest.

    November is only possible with all party agreement if the two thirds vote is held by 24 October. For a November election via a vote of no confidence, the vote needs to take place by 10 October.

    To get an extension we need a November election. Without one, why would the EU bother? It looks to me like this is Johnson's cunning plan.

    And will work out like the zipwire, with him stuck halfway along, and having to be rescued!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,381
    edited October 2


    To get an extension we need a November election. Without one, why would the EU bother? It looks to me like this is Johnson's cunning plan.

    To avoid anything bad happening while the UK works through its issues? I'm not sure they want to be seen forcing Britain to do things, especially things that have the effect of assisting the agenda of some gobshite populist who helped create this mess in the first place.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,500
    There are very good reasons for not having autumn (or god forbid) winter elections. Voters hate them. Party workers hate them. Broadcasters hate them. Local authorities hate them.

    Turnouts will be lower. There’s a far heightened chance of weather conditions having a major influence (or in winter even jeopardising the election itself).

    They’re just all round bad ideas, unless absolutely unavoidable.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,229
    alex. said:

    There are very good reasons for not having autumn (or god forbid) winter elections. Voters hate them. Party workers hate them. Broadcasters hate them. Local authorities hate them.

    Turnouts will be lower. There’s a far heightened chance of weather conditions having a major influence (or in winter even jeopardising the election itself).

    They’re just all round bad ideas, unless absolutely unavoidable.

    The Feb '74 election had one of the best turnouts ever.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,481

    I don't think you can have an election in December in modern Britain. The whole of December is ' Winterval ' and broadcasters, advertisers, retailers and activists will absolutely hate it. There would be a backlash in Scotland because of the weather and light. Closing schools for polling stations will create social media outrage over cancelled Nativity plays etc etc. I just think whoever calls it risks a backlash.

    Ah nativity plays. It is a long long time since my kids were appearing in these and I would have loved the excuse not to be there. I like the story of when Joseph asked if there was room at the inn the child playing the innkeeper replied Yes thus undermining the rationale for the rest of the play.
    Was that your son?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,481
    On topic, I fully agree.

    I’ve been a consistent layer of a GE and indeed laid a large chunk when it traded as low as 1.07, which was crazy. My average lay price is about 1.27 overall.

    If it comes off (and I’m expecting it to do so) it will be my second largest political bet win ever, behind GE2015, and near enough a four-figure profit.

    Exciting.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,701


    To get an extension we need a November election. Without one, why would the EU bother? It looks to me like this is Johnson's cunning plan.

    To avoid anything bad happening while the UK works through its issues? I'm not sure they want to be seen forcing Britain to do things, especially things that have the effect of assisting the agenda of some gobshite populist who helped create this mess in the first place.

    I guess an extension for one, final normal Xmas and New Year might be a good idea.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,481

    Why would the EU bother agreeing to a further three month extension without an election this year? If November and December are out, January has to be too as the campaign cannot begin until next year gets underway. I cannot see past November - unless we do crash out on 31st October. If that happens then we definitely will not get an election until well into 2020 at the earliest.

    November is only possible with all party agreement if the two thirds vote is held by 24 October. For a November election via a vote of no confidence, the vote needs to take place by 10 October.
    Gamblers should watch those dates like a hawk.

    As they expire the markets should move accordingly and, if they don’t, there is opportunity.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    Why would the EU bother agreeing to a further three month extension without an election this year? If November and December are out, January has to be too as the campaign cannot begin until next year gets underway. I cannot see past November - unless we do crash out on 31st October. If that happens then we definitely will not get an election until well into 2020 at the earliest.

    There is no rationale for an extension.

    If this deal passes then Jezza’s appetite for an election will er diminish somewhat.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307

    Why would the EU bother agreeing to a further three month extension without an election this year? If November and December are out, January has to be too as the campaign cannot begin until next year gets underway. I cannot see past November - unless we do crash out on 31st October. If that happens then we definitely will not get an election until well into 2020 at the earliest.

    November is only possible with all party agreement if the two thirds vote is held by 24 October. For a November election via a vote of no confidence, the vote needs to take place by 10 October.
    Gamblers should watch those dates like a hawk.

    As they expire the markets should move accordingly and, if they don’t, there is opportunity.
    Someone managed to lay October last night for 40.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418
    I've never really understood the 31st January date in the Benn Act. Was it the latest date they could get agreement on to pass the Act? It either requires a FURTHER extension - or MPs forcing a winter election on the voters. Neither of which seem like a smart move.
  • January is the NHS Winter Crisis, peak flu season ( under 65 vacs have been delayed and there are hints WHO may have mismatched the strains ) and the latest round of retail failures. It would suit Labour as does going before the begining of the new financial year when the spending taps are turned on by Javid. Dissolving in early or mid January for a late February election. The Benn Act requests 31/1 as the extension end but that doesn't mean it's what we'll be offered. 29/3 is the obvious compromise as the anniversary of the original exit date. It gives the new parliament over a month to make a decision or extend again.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307
    The current question that’s exercising me is how low December is going to go. It seems a bit too soon to be laying it, but I don’t want to be too greedy.

    Below evens mid month?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,934
    TGOHF2 said:

    Why would the EU bother agreeing to a further three month extension without an election this year? If November and December are out, January has to be too as the campaign cannot begin until next year gets underway. I cannot see past November - unless we do crash out on 31st October. If that happens then we definitely will not get an election until well into 2020 at the earliest.

    There is no rationale for an extension.

    If this deal passes then Jezza’s appetite for an election will er diminish somewhat.
    Jezza needs to fulfill his ultimate destiny. .. to destroy the Labour Party.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 7,418

    OT, I thought this was really interesting. There was a suggestion that he was doing the same thing in that interview when he said that weird stuff about making cardboard models of buses, which then started to displace the famous lie on the side of one.

    I'm not sure I believe it though, I think he just has a lot of sex and corruption scandals, so whichever word he uses tends to displace one.

    Does Boris know any cyber-experts? *Innocent face*
    Yes, this was mentioned when he revealed that making model buses was a hobby of his.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492

    Why would the EU bother agreeing to a further three month extension without an election this year? If November and December are out, January has to be too as the campaign cannot begin until next year gets underway. I cannot see past November - unless we do crash out on 31st October. If that happens then we definitely will not get an election until well into 2020 at the earliest.

    November is only possible with all party agreement if the two thirds vote is held by 24 October. For a November election via a vote of no confidence, the vote needs to take place by 10 October.

    To get an extension we need a November election. Without one, why would the EU bother? It looks to me like this is Johnson's cunning plan.

    The EU will offer a longer extension than three months in order to allow time for a general election, referendum, or both.
  • Equally if Boris beats the Benn deadline by passing MV4 by 19/10 then they'll be a mad scramble to get the WA through by 31/10. Or more likely a technical extension of a few weeks. So Parliament will need to be sitting. Even if Boris tried to go immeadiately after a Hallowe'en Brexit triumph polling day would be well into December by then and very near Christmas if there was a technical extension. And having a campaign *over* Christmas is absurd. So even in the Brexit delivered senario I still can't see an election till 2020.

    Curiously perhaps the only senario where an early December 2019 election makes sense is if Boris has forced through a No Deal somehow. The temptation will be to cut and run before the impact of the economic shock is felt. The data is deteriorating as it is. I just don't see how No Deal happens given there is a blocking majority in the Commons when it's hypothetical never mind days away. But it needs to be priced in as a risk.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,456
    The thing is, once an extension is agreed (ideally via Boris betrayal), then surely the opposition wants an election? So it does seem like it will be soon...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,481

    The current question that’s exercising me is how low December is going to go. It seems a bit too soon to be laying it, but I don’t want to be too greedy.

    Below evens mid month?

    Probably. Worth nibbling away at from CoB on 10th October onwards.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,481

    Why would the EU bother agreeing to a further three month extension without an election this year? If November and December are out, January has to be too as the campaign cannot begin until next year gets underway. I cannot see past November - unless we do crash out on 31st October. If that happens then we definitely will not get an election until well into 2020 at the earliest.

    November is only possible with all party agreement if the two thirds vote is held by 24 October. For a November election via a vote of no confidence, the vote needs to take place by 10 October.
    Gamblers should watch those dates like a hawk.

    As they expire the markets should move accordingly and, if they don’t, there is opportunity.
    Someone managed to lay October last night for 40.
    Cant imagine who.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,631

    I don't think you can have an election in December in modern Britain. The whole of December is ' Winterval ' and broadcasters, advertisers, retailers and activists will absolutely hate it. There would be a backlash in Scotland because of the weather and light. Closing schools for polling stations will create social media outrage over cancelled Nativity plays etc etc. I just think whoever calls it risks a backlash.

    Ah nativity plays. It is a long long time since my kids were appearing in these and I would have loved the excuse not to be there. I like the story of when Joseph asked if there was room at the inn the child playing the innkeeper replied Yes thus undermining the rationale for the rest of the play.
    Was that your son?
    Can't have been, whoever it was didn't ask them if they liked Radiohead.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,339
    Good morning, everyone.

    If we have a bad winter then voting patterns could be even more unusual than the current polling suggests.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492

    alex. said:

    There are very good reasons for not having autumn (or god forbid) winter elections. Voters hate them. Party workers hate them. Broadcasters hate them. Local authorities hate them.

    Turnouts will be lower. There’s a far heightened chance of weather conditions having a major influence (or in winter even jeopardising the election itself).

    They’re just all round bad ideas, unless absolutely unavoidable.

    The Feb '74 election had one of the best turnouts ever.
    The weather could have been worse.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307
    DavidL said:

    There are an unusually large number of people facing the end of their political careers come the election. Those that joined the TIG group, some of those who went on to join the Lib Dems, a significant chunk of Tories currently without the whip and sundry stragglers such as O'Mara. In addition any Labour MP vulnerable to a 5% swing to the Tories or the SNP and probably higher to the Lib Dems will not fancy rolling the dice much, especially if their seat voted leave. Tories from the SW, London or Scotland will be yet another group feeling distinctly edgy.

    This has been the worst performing and most shambolic Parliament in my lifetime. I think those who bet on them not being in any rush to face their employers are on to a good thing.

    The problem is the executive, not the legislature. The executive has continually sought to impose its will on the legislature despite lacking the numbers. It has not sought to construct a majority by compromising. Obviously this was always unlikely to be a winning gambit.

    In due course a slimline government will replace this one. Then I expect Parliament will work considerably better without the need for an election.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,951
    ydoethur said:

    I don't think you can have an election in December in modern Britain. The whole of December is ' Winterval ' and broadcasters, advertisers, retailers and activists will absolutely hate it. There would be a backlash in Scotland because of the weather and light. Closing schools for polling stations will create social media outrage over cancelled Nativity plays etc etc. I just think whoever calls it risks a backlash.

    Ah nativity plays. It is a long long time since my kids were appearing in these and I would have loved the excuse not to be there. I like the story of when Joseph asked if there was room at the inn the child playing the innkeeper replied Yes thus undermining the rationale for the rest of the play.
    Was that your son?
    Can't have been, whoever it was didn't ask them if they liked Radiohead.
    I remember a Horrid Henry story (by Francesca Simon, I think) where that happened. It was one of the funnier ones.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,006

    I don't think you can have an election in December in modern Britain. The whole of December is ' Winterval ' and broadcasters, advertisers, retailers and activists will absolutely hate it. There would be a backlash in Scotland because of the weather and light. Closing schools for polling stations will create social media outrage over cancelled Nativity plays etc etc. I just think whoever calls it risks a backlash.

    Ah nativity plays. It is a long long time since my kids were appearing in these and I would have loved the excuse not to be there. I like the story of when Joseph asked if there was room at the inn the child playing the innkeeper replied Yes thus undermining the rationale for the rest of the play.
    Was that your son?
    I never got starring roles like that.

    Second sheep from left was the highlight of my school acting career.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,481

    January is the NHS Winter Crisis, peak flu season ( under 65 vacs have been delayed and there are hints WHO may have mismatched the strains ) and the latest round of retail failures. It would suit Labour as does going before the begining of the new financial year when the spending taps are turned on by Javid. Dissolving in early or mid January for a late February election. The Benn Act requests 31/1 as the extension end but that doesn't mean it's what we'll be offered. 29/3 is the obvious compromise as the anniversary of the original exit date. It gives the new parliament over a month to make a decision or extend again.

    I think we’re currently looking at March 2020, which fits within the 6-month caretaker Government window too. So a dissolution once Parliament comes back in January.

    It’s light enough in the morning and late afternoon to vote, and the weather generally isn’t too bad. It also doesn’t clash with Easter.

    If a caretaker Government takes office instead and goes for a referendum, of course, then that might not be held until April/May, and the GE that follows perhaps not until late June or early July.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,481
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't think you can have an election in December in modern Britain. The whole of December is ' Winterval ' and broadcasters, advertisers, retailers and activists will absolutely hate it. There would be a backlash in Scotland because of the weather and light. Closing schools for polling stations will create social media outrage over cancelled Nativity plays etc etc. I just think whoever calls it risks a backlash.

    Ah nativity plays. It is a long long time since my kids were appearing in these and I would have loved the excuse not to be there. I like the story of when Joseph asked if there was room at the inn the child playing the innkeeper replied Yes thus undermining the rationale for the rest of the play.
    Was that your son?
    I never got starring roles like that.

    Second sheep from left was the highlight of my school acting career.
    I’d have thought you’d have argued that “no, but due to the invisible hand someone else in Bethlehem will offer you bed for the night for a reasonable price.”
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't think you can have an election in December in modern Britain. The whole of December is ' Winterval ' and broadcasters, advertisers, retailers and activists will absolutely hate it. There would be a backlash in Scotland because of the weather and light. Closing schools for polling stations will create social media outrage over cancelled Nativity plays etc etc. I just think whoever calls it risks a backlash.

    Ah nativity plays. It is a long long time since my kids were appearing in these and I would have loved the excuse not to be there. I like the story of when Joseph asked if there was room at the inn the child playing the innkeeper replied Yes thus undermining the rationale for the rest of the play.
    Was that your son?
    I never got starring roles like that.

    Second sheep from left was the highlight of my school acting career.
    My aunt was a primary school deputy headmistress and took charge of the nativity play. She had strict casting rules.

    Naughty boys were shepherds. Very naughty boys were shepherds without crooks.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,456

    Good morning, everyone.

    If we have a bad winter then voting patterns could be even more unusual than the current polling suggests.

    That's an interesting angle to it. You'd imagine that in winter conditions a get out the vote operation would be particularly critical. I've heard it said that Labour voters are often less motivated, and more easily deterred by bad weather. Could also be true though that oldies are less likely to get out in winter. Hard to know.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,631

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't think you can have an election in December in modern Britain. The whole of December is ' Winterval ' and broadcasters, advertisers, retailers and activists will absolutely hate it. There would be a backlash in Scotland because of the weather and light. Closing schools for polling stations will create social media outrage over cancelled Nativity plays etc etc. I just think whoever calls it risks a backlash.

    Ah nativity plays. It is a long long time since my kids were appearing in these and I would have loved the excuse not to be there. I like the story of when Joseph asked if there was room at the inn the child playing the innkeeper replied Yes thus undermining the rationale for the rest of the play.
    Was that your son?
    I never got starring roles like that.

    Second sheep from left was the highlight of my school acting career.
    I’d have thought you’d have argued that “no, but due to the invisible hand someone else in Bethlehem will offer you bed for the night for a reasonable price.”
    That would be the local Smith, and they wouldn't have known him from Adam.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,951

    DavidL said:

    There are an unusually large number of people facing the end of their political careers come the election. Those that joined the TIG group, some of those who went on to join the Lib Dems, a significant chunk of Tories currently without the whip and sundry stragglers such as O'Mara. In addition any Labour MP vulnerable to a 5% swing to the Tories or the SNP and probably higher to the Lib Dems will not fancy rolling the dice much, especially if their seat voted leave. Tories from the SW, London or Scotland will be yet another group feeling distinctly edgy.

    This has been the worst performing and most shambolic Parliament in my lifetime. I think those who bet on them not being in any rush to face their employers are on to a good thing.

    The problem is the executive, not the legislature. The executive has continually sought to impose its will on the legislature despite lacking the numbers. It has not sought to construct a majority by compromising. Obviously this was always unlikely to be a winning gambit.

    In due course a slimline government will replace this one. Then I expect Parliament will work considerably better without the need for an election.
    I think that the problem is both. The Tories lost Cameron's modest majority in 2017 but May carried on as if she still had one. The problem was that even when she did have one on paper she did not in reality on the major topic of her government. All Boris has done is demonstrate the underlying reality, that this Tory party doesn't have a single position around which it can coalesce to get a majority. It either spills the ERG or those without the whip now, it cannot find a middle ground.

    Which raises an interesting question relevant to this topic. How does Boris plan to get his budget through the Commons? Is he going to break his record of losing every vote?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418
    edited October 2

    Why would the EU bother agreeing to a further three month extension without an election this year? If November and December are out, January has to be too as the campaign cannot begin until next year gets underway. I cannot see past November - unless we do crash out on 31st October. If that happens then we definitely will not get an election until well into 2020 at the earliest.

    November is only possible with all party agreement if the two thirds vote is held by 24 October. For a November election via a vote of no confidence, the vote needs to take place by 10 October.

    To get an extension we need a November election. Without one, why would the EU bother? It looks to me like this is Johnson's cunning plan.

    The EU will offer a longer extension than three months in order to allow time for a general election, referendum, or both.
    A referendum is going to require a general election win by a party/parties pledging this. There has been no appetite for it in Westminster, basically because nobody can agree the question to be asked. Any referendum prior to an election risks a mass boycott by Leavers, saying they will wait to vote in the general election. The EU might not worry about the second referendum having no democratic legitimacy, but it stores a mass of problems domestically when it gets labelled the Cheats Charter.

    So the extension to be offered by the EU will be for a general election to be held. But they can read the polls like anybody else. They are seeing a significant likelihood of a Tory Party winning seats, perhaps a majority, perhaps still a minority with DUP support. How does that get them any further forward? It solves nothing. The incoming Commission in November still has to deal with the shitty Brexit problem on their watch. They would much prefer this is Problem Belong Previous Regime. No further extensions means Problem Belong Britain. And almost certainly delivers the deal they have already done rather than No Deal.

    Any further extension is a really dumb idea for the EU.
  • eekeek Posts: 5,791

    January is the NHS Winter Crisis, peak flu season ( under 65 vacs have been delayed and there are hints WHO may have mismatched the strains ) and the latest round of retail failures. It would suit Labour as does going before the begining of the new financial year when the spending taps are turned on by Javid. Dissolving in early or mid January for a late February election. The Benn Act requests 31/1 as the extension end but that doesn't mean it's what we'll be offered. 29/3 is the obvious compromise as the anniversary of the original exit date. It gives the new parliament over a month to make a decision or extend again.

    I think we’re currently looking at March 2020, which fits within the 6-month caretaker Government window too. So a dissolution once Parliament comes back in January.

    It’s light enough in the morning and late afternoon to vote, and the weather generally isn’t too bad. It also doesn’t clash with Easter.

    If a caretaker Government takes office instead and goes for a referendum, of course, then that might not be held until April/May, and the GE that follows perhaps not until late June or early July.
    I expect to see a 1 year extension - simply to allow the referendum followed by an election - a 3 month extension may not solve anything and definitely won't solve anything in a way the EU will appreciate.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't think you can have an election in December in modern Britain. The whole of December is ' Winterval ' and broadcasters, advertisers, retailers and activists will absolutely hate it. There would be a backlash in Scotland because of the weather and light. Closing schools for polling stations will create social media outrage over cancelled Nativity plays etc etc. I just think whoever calls it risks a backlash.

    Ah nativity plays. It is a long long time since my kids were appearing in these and I would have loved the excuse not to be there. I like the story of when Joseph asked if there was room at the inn the child playing the innkeeper replied Yes thus undermining the rationale for the rest of the play.
    Was that your son?
    I never got starring roles like that.

    Second sheep from left was the highlight of my school acting career.
    I was the nativity cowboy, complete with stetson and pair of six-shooters. I accompanied Lorraine in the kimono her elder brother had bought her whilst out in Japan working on a whaling ship.

    We had a very inclusive Nativity in 1966 - even if the visitors to the Baby Jesus were tooled up.....
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492

    Any further extension is a really dumb idea for the EU.

    You have to remember that the people making this decision on the EU side are politicians and will be making their decision for political reasons.

    Unlike the UK, the EU has not seen a campaign by people extolling the virtues of a No Deal. The EU politicians will not want to take responsibility for a No Deal. They will ensure that they can say it was Britain's choice.

    They will offer an extension (even if they hope it is rejected - so they won't fear a No Deal government following an election either)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,035
    eek said:

    January is the NHS Winter Crisis, peak flu season ( under 65 vacs have been delayed and there are hints WHO may have mismatched the strains ) and the latest round of retail failures. It would suit Labour as does going before the begining of the new financial year when the spending taps are turned on by Javid. Dissolving in early or mid January for a late February election. The Benn Act requests 31/1 as the extension end but that doesn't mean it's what we'll be offered. 29/3 is the obvious compromise as the anniversary of the original exit date. It gives the new parliament over a month to make a decision or extend again.

    I think we’re currently looking at March 2020, which fits within the 6-month caretaker Government window too. So a dissolution once Parliament comes back in January.

    It’s light enough in the morning and late afternoon to vote, and the weather generally isn’t too bad. It also doesn’t clash with Easter.

    If a caretaker Government takes office instead and goes for a referendum, of course, then that might not be held until April/May, and the GE that follows perhaps not until late June or early July.
    I expect to see a 1 year extension - simply to allow the referendum followed by an election - a 3 month extension may not solve anything and definitely won't solve anything in a way the EU will appreciate.
    An extension to Dec 31st 2020 is attractive as it covers the remainder of the Transition period, and leaves plenty of time for GE and referendum. It also covers the remainder of the budget cycle to makes the Divorce bill substantially less.

    End of March 2020 is probably more realistic though, if there is any extension at all. I am not convinced there will be one agreed by the EU at all.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,381
    edited October 2
    rcs1000 said:

    I never got starring roles like that.

    Second sheep from left was the highlight of my school acting career.

    They gave me second donkey. I took this part very seriously and went down to the nearby field to check out some actual donkeys. The said donkeys were in a sad condition, and they were always kind of flicking their head around trying to get rid of their fleas.

    I can't act for shit but I got the whole flea-ridden donkey thing down and by the time I was done nobody was paying any attention to the baby jesus or whatever, and the entire audience was itching.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 13,120
    edited October 2

    Why would the EU bother agreeing to a further three month extension without an election this year? If November and December are out, January has to be too as the campaign cannot begin until next year gets underway. I cannot see past November - unless we do crash out on 31st October. If that happens then we definitely will not get an election until well into 2020 at the earliest.

    November is only possible with all party agreement if the two thirds vote is held by 24 October. For a November election via a vote of no confidence, the vote needs to take place by 10 October.
    I've been told confidently by activists in all 3 major parties plus the Greens (I went to all the conferences for my day job and people gossip between meetings) that they are sure the election will be Nov 21 or 28. How much of that is just response to parties geeing up the activists in case it happens I don't know, but it makes me reluctant to put money against it. The theory is that the opposition will deny Johnson his Oct 31 deadline and will then have less reason and no excuse to refuse an election, one theme being "Johnson has failed, let us sort it out".

    Incidentally, I'm not sure that Yellow Submarine's various dates that interfere with campaigning add up to a substantial hurdle to late November or even early December. The number of people who are involved in all of them (Diwali AND Guy Fawkes AND nativity plays AND...) is small and campaigners will work around them. Serious activists in Scotland cheerfully campaign in the dark - I've been torchlight canvassing in a Glasgow by-election and it was good fun - and there's always weekends.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,481
    eek said:

    January is the NHS Winter Crisis, peak flu season ( under 65 vacs have been delayed and there are hints WHO may have mismatched the strains ) and the latest round of retail failures. It would suit Labour as does going before the begining of the new financial year when the spending taps are turned on by Javid. Dissolving in early or mid January for a late February election. The Benn Act requests 31/1 as the extension end but that doesn't mean it's what we'll be offered. 29/3 is the obvious compromise as the anniversary of the original exit date. It gives the new parliament over a month to make a decision or extend again.

    I think we’re currently looking at March 2020, which fits within the 6-month caretaker Government window too. So a dissolution once Parliament comes back in January.

    It’s light enough in the morning and late afternoon to vote, and the weather generally isn’t too bad. It also doesn’t clash with Easter.

    If a caretaker Government takes office instead and goes for a referendum, of course, then that might not be held until April/May, and the GE that follows perhaps not until late June or early July.
    I expect to see a 1 year extension - simply to allow the referendum followed by an election - a 3 month extension may not solve anything and definitely won't solve anything in a way the EU will appreciate.
    1 year sounds too generous and open ended.

    Maybe 10 months to end of August 2020?

    And that’d be conditional, from the EU’s perspective, on a GE or a referendum solving the UK Parliamentary gridlock.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,481

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't think you can have an election in December in modern Britain. The whole of December is ' Winterval ' and broadcasters, advertisers, retailers and activists will absolutely hate it. There would be a backlash in Scotland because of the weather and light. Closing schools for polling stations will create social media outrage over cancelled Nativity plays etc etc. I just think whoever calls it risks a backlash.

    Ah nativity plays. It is a long long time since my kids were appearing in these and I would have loved the excuse not to be there. I like the story of when Joseph asked if there was room at the inn the child playing the innkeeper replied Yes thus undermining the rationale for the rest of the play.
    Was that your son?
    I never got starring roles like that.

    Second sheep from left was the highlight of my school acting career.
    My aunt was a primary school deputy headmistress and took charge of the nativity play. She had strict casting rules.

    Naughty boys were shepherds. Very naughty boys were shepherds without crooks.
    I was a shepherd, but I’m happy to say I had a crook.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,200
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    I don't think you can have an election in December in modern Britain. The whole of December is ' Winterval ' and broadcasters, advertisers, retailers and activists will absolutely hate it. There would be a backlash in Scotland because of the weather and light. Closing schools for polling stations will create social media outrage over cancelled Nativity plays etc etc. I just think whoever calls it risks a backlash.

    Ah nativity plays. It is a long long time since my kids were appearing in these and I would have loved the excuse not to be there. I like the story of when Joseph asked if there was room at the inn the child playing the innkeeper replied Yes thus undermining the rationale for the rest of the play.
    Was that your son?
    Can't have been, whoever it was didn't ask them if they liked Radiohead.
    I remember a Horrid Henry story (by Francesca Simon, I think) where that happened. It was one of the funnier ones.
    Really ?
    That bloody band seem to get everywhere.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,314

    Why would the EU bother agreeing to a further three month extension without an election this year? If November and December are out, January has to be too as the campaign cannot begin until next year gets underway. I cannot see past November - unless we do crash out on 31st October. If that happens then we definitely will not get an election until well into 2020 at the earliest.

    November is only possible with all party agreement if the two thirds vote is held by 24 October. For a November election via a vote of no confidence, the vote needs to take place by 10 October.
    I've been told confidently by activists in all 3 major parties plus the Greens (I went to all the conferences for my day job and people gossip between meetings) that they are sure the election will be Nov 21 or 28. How much of that is just response to parties geeing up the activists in case it happens I don't know, but it makes me reluctant to put money against it. The theory is that the opposition will deny Johnson his Oct 31 deadline and will then have less reason and no excuse to refuse an election, one theme being "Johnson has failed, let us sort it out".
    They are foolish and playing with fire. We could easily be looking at 1983. Are we ready for 5-10 years of Boris majority government?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,381
    Jonathan said:

    Why would the EU bother agreeing to a further three month extension without an election this year? If November and December are out, January has to be too as the campaign cannot begin until next year gets underway. I cannot see past November - unless we do crash out on 31st October. If that happens then we definitely will not get an election until well into 2020 at the earliest.

    November is only possible with all party agreement if the two thirds vote is held by 24 October. For a November election via a vote of no confidence, the vote needs to take place by 10 October.
    I've been told confidently by activists in all 3 major parties plus the Greens (I went to all the conferences for my day job and people gossip between meetings) that they are sure the election will be Nov 21 or 28. How much of that is just response to parties geeing up the activists in case it happens I don't know, but it makes me reluctant to put money against it. The theory is that the opposition will deny Johnson his Oct 31 deadline and will then have less reason and no excuse to refuse an election, one theme being "Johnson has failed, let us sort it out".
    They are foolish and playing with fire. We could easily be looking at 1983. Are we ready for 5-10 years of Boris majority government?
    Yup. Much better to sort it out, then run on, "Johnson failed, as did Cameron and May. We sorted it out. How about now we sort out something else".
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 984

    I don't think you can have an election in December in modern Britain. The whole of December is ' Winterval ' and broadcasters, advertisers, retailers and activists will absolutely hate it. There would be a backlash in Scotland because of the weather and light. Closing schools for polling stations will create social media outrage over cancelled Nativity plays etc etc. I just think whoever calls it risks a backlash.

    Ah nativity plays. It is a long long time since my kids were appearing in these and I would have loved the excuse not to be there. I like the story of when Joseph asked if there was room at the inn the child playing the innkeeper replied Yes thus undermining the rationale for the rest of the play.
    Ha ha! Yes, the cancelling of nativity plays is one of the strongest arguments I’ve seen for a Christmas election. If only!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,324
    Does anyone know whether the police got to the bottom of who leaked the email from the British Ambassador to Washington? The story just went cold like so many at the moment.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,339
    Mr. rkrkrk, it'd also disproportionately (all else being equal) affect rural constituencies.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,381


    A referendum is going to require a general election win by a party/parties pledging this. There has been no appetite for it in Westminster, basically because nobody can agree the question to be asked. Any referendum prior to an election risks a mass boycott by Leavers, saying they will wait to vote in the general election. The EU might not worry about the second referendum having no democratic legitimacy, but it stores a mass of problems domestically when it gets labelled the Cheats Charter.

    Leavers will boycott it if they think they're going to lose it, and if they lose it they'll complain about its democratic legitimacy forever. They'll call it something like the Cheat's Charter, only snappier. This is equally true whether it's somebody's manifesto commitment or not.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418

    Any further extension is a really dumb idea for the EU.

    You have to remember that the people making this decision on the EU side are politicians and will be making their decision for political reasons.

    Unlike the UK, the EU has not seen a campaign by people extolling the virtues of a No Deal. The EU politicians will not want to take responsibility for a No Deal. They will ensure that they can say it was Britain's choice.

    They will offer an extension (even if they hope it is rejected - so they won't fear a No Deal government following an election either)
    Risk of No Deal is non-existent if they grant us no further extensions. Hell, we've even passed a law to prevent it.....all those MPs couldn't just be virtue sgnalling, surely?

    No further extension - and the Brexit saga gets put to bed for good by 31st October. Pretty much on the deal they negotiated with May. Who in Brussels wouldn't want that?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 50,888
    Nigelb said:

    That bloody band seem to get everywhere.

    Including The West Wing
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307

    Why would the EU bother agreeing to a further three month extension without an election this year? If November and December are out, January has to be too as the campaign cannot begin until next year gets underway. I cannot see past November - unless we do crash out on 31st October. If that happens then we definitely will not get an election until well into 2020 at the earliest.

    November is only possible with all party agreement if the two thirds vote is held by 24 October. For a November election via a vote of no confidence, the vote needs to take place by 10 October.
    I've been told confidently by activists in all 3 major parties plus the Greens (I went to all the conferences for my day job and people gossip between meetings) that they are sure the election will be Nov 21 or 28. How much of that is just response to parties geeing up the activists in case it happens I don't know, but it makes me reluctant to put money against it. The theory is that the opposition will deny Johnson his Oct 31 deadline and will then have less reason and no excuse to refuse an election, one theme being "Johnson has failed, let us sort it out".

    Incidentally, I'm not sure that Yellow Submarine's various dates that interfere with campaigning add up to a substantial hurdle to late November or even early December. The number of people who are involved in all of them (Diwali AND Guy Fawkes AND nativity plays AND...) is small and campaigners will work around them. Serious activists in Scotland cheerfully campaign in the dark - I've been torchlight canvassing in a Glasgow by-election and it was good fun - and there's always weekends.
    Those dates, particularly 21 November, are very hard to reconcile with the statutory timetable. There must be 25 working days as a minimum in the election campaign (five weeks). If the two main parties don't agree - and agreement seems fairly unlikely - you have to add another two weeks in for a vote of no confidence. For 21 November, that means a vote of no confidence today or tomorrow.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 815

    Why would the EU bother agreeing to a further three month extension without an election this year? If November and December are out, January has to be too as the campaign cannot begin until next year gets underway. I cannot see past November - unless we do crash out on 31st October. If that happens then we definitely will not get an election until well into 2020 at the earliest.

    November is only possible with all party agreement if the two thirds vote is held by 24 October. For a November election via a vote of no confidence, the vote needs to take place by 10 October.
    I've been told confidently by activists in all 3 major parties plus the Greens (I went to all the conferences for my day job and people gossip between meetings) that they are sure the election will be Nov 21 or 28. How much of that is just response to parties geeing up the activists in case it happens I don't know, but it makes me reluctant to put money against it. The theory is that the opposition will deny Johnson his Oct 31 deadline and will then have less reason and no excuse to refuse an election, one theme being "Johnson has failed, let us sort it out".

    Incidentally, I'm not sure that Yellow Submarine's various dates that interfere with campaigning add up to a substantial hurdle to late November or even early December. The number of people who are involved in all of them (Diwali AND Guy Fawkes AND nativity plays AND...) is small and campaigners will work around them. Serious activists in Scotland cheerfully campaign in the dark - I've been torchlight canvassing in a Glasgow by-election and it was good fun - and there's always weekends.
    Those dates, particularly 21 November, are very hard to reconcile with the statutory timetable. There must be 25 working days as a minimum in the election campaign (five weeks). If the two main parties don't agree - and agreement seems fairly unlikely - you have to add another two weeks in for a vote of no confidence. For 21 November, that means a vote of no confidence today or tomorrow.
    Labour are apparently on a three line whip tomorrow, but I'd still lay Nov.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,200
    Now I see why they want us to be Singapore...

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/10/01/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/singapore-fake-news-law-come-force-wednesday-rights-groups-worry-stifle-free-speech/
    Singapore is about to introduce a law against “fake news” that rights groups have warned may stifle free speech and opposition politicians have said could give the government too much power as elections loom.

    The law was passed earlier this year after a public consultation. It will take effect on Wednesday, according to a government notice.

    The legislation will require online media platforms, including social media sites like Facebook and Twitter, to carry corrections or remove content that the government considers to be false.

    Individuals deemed to have maliciously spread false information on the web damaging to the public interest face jail terms of up to 10 years. Media platforms that fail to comply with the law face fines of up to $1 million Singaporean dollars ($730,600).

    The bill is called the Protection from Online Falsehoods and Manipulation Act, but is commonly referred to as the fake news law.

    The People’s Action Party (PAP), which has ruled Singapore since its independence over half a century ago...
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,935
    Notice the attempt by Bozo to blame the EU for customs checks in his interview , totally ignoring that it’s the UK whose leaving and causing these issues .

    This will be the new line , we were forced to do it .
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,776
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't think you can have an election in December in modern Britain. The whole of December is ' Winterval ' and broadcasters, advertisers, retailers and activists will absolutely hate it. There would be a backlash in Scotland because of the weather and light. Closing schools for polling stations will create social media outrage over cancelled Nativity plays etc etc. I just think whoever calls it risks a backlash.

    Ah nativity plays. It is a long long time since my kids were appearing in these and I would have loved the excuse not to be there. I like the story of when Joseph asked if there was room at the inn the child playing the innkeeper replied Yes thus undermining the rationale for the rest of the play.
    Was that your son?
    I never got starring roles like that.

    Second sheep from left was the highlight of my school acting career.
    Bah .. Bah Humbug

    I'll get my (wool) coat ....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 50,888


    And the Tories are threatening civil unrest again
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 50,888
    nico67 said:

    This will be the new line , we were forced to do it .

    You mean we surrendered...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418
    Scott_P said:
    If Aaronovitch thinks that clever, he really is thick as a brick.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,481

    Why would the EU bother agreeing to a further three month extension without an election this year? If November and December are out, January has to be too as the campaign cannot begin until next year gets underway. I cannot see past November - unless we do crash out on 31st October. If that happens then we definitely will not get an election until well into 2020 at the earliest.

    November is only possible with all party agreement if the two thirds vote is held by 24 October. For a November election via a vote of no confidence, the vote needs to take place by 10 October.
    I've been told confidently by activists in all 3 major parties plus the Greens (I went to all the conferences for my day job and people gossip between meetings) that they are sure the election will be Nov 21 or 28. How much of that is just response to parties geeing up the activists in case it happens I don't know, but it makes me reluctant to put money against it. The theory is that the opposition will deny Johnson his Oct 31 deadline and will then have less reason and no excuse to refuse an election, one theme being "Johnson has failed, let us sort it out".

    Incidentally, I'm not sure that Yellow Submarine's various dates that interfere with campaigning add up to a substantial hurdle to late November or even early December. The number of people who are involved in all of them (Diwali AND Guy Fawkes AND nativity plays AND...) is small and campaigners will work around them. Serious activists in Scotland cheerfully campaign in the dark - I've been torchlight canvassing in a Glasgow by-election and it was good fun - and there's always weekends.
    If I was being unkind I might say, what do activists know?

    Activists are pumped and primed to go any time in any weather, but represent the most motivated and politically driven part of the population. They’re used as directed cannon fodder by the main party leaders, and prepped accordingly.

    They’re not normal people and are prone to believing their own hype.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,048

    Any further extension is a really dumb idea for the EU.

    You have to remember that the people making this decision on the EU side are politicians and will be making their decision for political reasons.

    Unlike the UK, the EU has not seen a campaign by people extolling the virtues of a No Deal. The EU politicians will not want to take responsibility for a No Deal. They will ensure that they can say it was Britain's choice.

    They will offer an extension (even if they hope it is rejected - so they won't fear a No Deal government following an election either)
    Risk of No Deal is non-existent if they grant us no further extensions. Hell, we've even passed a law to prevent it.....all those MPs couldn't just be virtue sgnalling, surely?

    No further extension - and the Brexit saga gets put to bed for good by 31st October. Pretty much on the deal they negotiated with May. Who in Brussels wouldn't want that?
    The problem for no-deal apologists is that it is very much not "put to bed" if we leave without a deal on 31st October. It will be the beginning of woes, and we will end up in a very very weak position to try and attempt endless mini-deals. Not "put to bed" at all. Simplistic claptrap on a par with all the other simplistic claptrap that leaders of Leave have tried to hoodwink the nation with.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221
    TGOHF2 said:
    LOL - "Awkwardly raises hand" ...in support of his own article... which turns out to be a piece of puff.

    E.g. "4. What happens if he decides to squat in Number 10?" - on current numbers he can be VoNC'ed at any time, leading to a GE, rather than a return of BoJo (who will be toast by then anyway).
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,776
    I would have thought the nativity play would have been a sure fire winner with Mike Smithson - All those sandals and beards. Three old "Wise Men" - Ming Campbell, Vince Cable and David Steel - returning to their constituencies and preparing for the son of god.

    Bethlehem LibDems Winning Here.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,200
    Another New Hampshire poll showing Warren in the lead.

    Granted it's still some ways off, but if Warren takes Iowa and New Hampshire (with Saunders third), and is runner up to Biden in S Carolina, does Saunders drop out at that point ?

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221
    edited October 2

    Any further extension is a really dumb idea for the EU.

    You have to remember that the people making this decision on the EU side are politicians and will be making their decision for political reasons.

    Unlike the UK, the EU has not seen a campaign by people extolling the virtues of a No Deal. The EU politicians will not want to take responsibility for a No Deal. They will ensure that they can say it was Britain's choice.

    They will offer an extension (even if they hope it is rejected - so they won't fear a No Deal government following an election either)
    Risk of No Deal is non-existent if they grant us no further extensions. Hell, we've even passed a law to prevent it.....all those MPs couldn't just be virtue sgnalling, surely?

    No further extension - and the Brexit saga gets put to bed for good by 31st October. Pretty much on the deal they negotiated with May. Who in Brussels wouldn't want that?
    The problem for no-deal apologists is that it is very much not "put to bed" if we leave without a deal on 31st October. It will be the beginning of woes, and we will end up in a very very weak position to try and attempt endless mini-deals. Not "put to bed" at all. Simplistic claptrap on a par with all the other simplistic claptrap that leaders of Leave have tried to hoodwink the nation with.
    Don't forget the nuclear (temporary) Revoke option is still there until 31 October, in preference to a chaotic No Deal crash.

    Even if you think the HoC wouldn't have the nerve for that, the EU will know it's an option when they consider whether to grant an extension or not.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    edited October 2
    The FTPA only applies if Boris is still PM in which case Labour would want a general election if Boris has agreed to extend past October 31st as the Tory vote will have collapsed to the Brexit Party putting Labour in front by default.

    If Boris has refused to extend Labour will either have to force him out by a VONC in which case if no alternative PM is found within 14 days as seems likely at present there has to be a general election anyway or if Boris has resigned rather than be forced by the courts to see his Government implement the Benn Act and extend then again even if an alternative PM is agreed they are likely to lose a VONC straight after extension as they will be reliant on Tory rebel and LD votes or if no alternative PM is agreed a general election is likely.

    So all the odds favour a November or December general election, so OGH I would not count on picking up those winnings
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 1,137

    I don't think you can have an election in December in modern Britain. The whole of December is ' Winterval ' and broadcasters, advertisers, retailers and activists will absolutely hate it. There would be a backlash in Scotland because of the weather and light. Closing schools for polling stations will create social media outrage over cancelled Nativity plays etc etc. I just think whoever calls it risks a backlash.

    Ah nativity plays. It is a long long time since my kids were appearing in these and I would have loved the excuse not to be there. I like the story of when Joseph asked if there was room at the inn the child playing the innkeeper replied Yes thus undermining the rationale for the rest of the play.
    Ha ha! Yes, the cancelling of nativity plays is one of the strongest arguments I’ve seen for a Christmas election. If only!
    Scrooge! I love a Nativity Play. And I'm an atheist!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,878

    Who in Brussels wouldn't want that?

    Anybody who doesn't want to give Boris a massive victory.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 24,446
    TGOHF2 said:
    Big deal a handful of cheapskates desperate to save a few pennies crossed the border. Key point is that sales in all Scotland have dropped and are all of the crazy high alcohol content garbage drunk by losers. Early days but it appears to actually be working and we will see the results after the 5 year trial. Trail blazing policy yet again from the SNP.
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