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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day of Johnson’s Brexit plan the latest polling on how

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited October 2 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day of Johnson’s Brexit plan the latest polling on how voters view the referendum decision

This is YouGov’s tracker which has been asked least twice a month since the referendum in June 2016. The format of the question has been unchanged and in the early day just about all the findings had Brexit being “right”.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Doctors have identified the first ever case of “Brexit-triggered psychosis”, according to a new report that warns of the dangers posed to mental health by political upheavals.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/what-is-brexit-psychosis/ar-AAI9Vil
  • eggegg Posts: 414
    On topic. But there was only one poll that mattered, the decide this thing leave remain in referendum that settles it for a generation.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 3,097
    Third like Richard and labour
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,223
    egg said:

    On topic. But there was only one poll that mattered, the decide this thing leave remain in referendum that settles it for a generation.

    Agreed. All that matters is that it did vote to leave.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,223

    Doctors have identified the first ever case of “Brexit-triggered psychosis”, according to a new report that warns of the dangers posed to mental health by political upheavals.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/what-is-brexit-psychosis/ar-AAI9Vil

    I've spent the last 5 days in Scotland, this appears a widespread illness.
  • Doctors have identified the first ever case of “Brexit-triggered psychosis”, according to a new report that warns of the dangers posed to mental health by political upheavals.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/what-is-brexit-psychosis/ar-AAI9Vil

    I've spent the last 5 days in Scotland, this appears a widespread illness.
    Cured by Olazapine apparently - which was what I was on till they switched me to depot :(
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 1,080
    egg said:

    On topic. But there was only one poll that mattered, the decide this thing leave remain in referendum that settles it for a generation.

    I agree. We can spend a generation listening to the Leavers bleating "It was not my fault - it was meant to be better than this"

    The truth is that Brexit has already destroyed the UK. It is becoming a pale shadow of the country it was 5 years ago.
  • egg said:

    On topic. But there was only one poll that mattered, the decide this thing leave remain in referendum that settles it for a generation.

    I agree. We can spend a generation listening to the Leavers bleating "It was not my fault - it was meant to be better than this"

    The truth is that Brexit has already destroyed the UK. It is becoming a pale shadow of the country it was 5 years ago.
    Well five years ago we had just had that infamously "non-divisive" indyref...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,330
    edited October 2
    When would the vote on the QS be held?

    Lets say this is the sequence:

    QS on 14th October.

    Boris gets his deal on 17th/18th October.

    Boris presents his deal to Parliament on 21st October. Passes. 31st October is secured as date we leave.

    QS is voted on 21st/22nd October. It fails.

    One line election bill is presented to Parliament 23rd October. Passes with Con + DUP + SNP + Lib-Dem votes

    Election held on 28th November or 5th December.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,957

    Doctors have identified the first ever case of “Brexit-triggered psychosis”, according to a new report that warns of the dangers posed to mental health by political upheavals.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/what-is-brexit-psychosis/ar-AAI9Vil

    I've spent the last 5 days in Scotland, this appears a widespread illness.
    Cured by Olazapine apparently - which was what I was on till they switched me to depot :(
    I find the best medicine is Rioja but obviously not in Scotland due to Sturgeon’s fun tax. ;)
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 335

    egg said:

    On topic. But there was only one poll that mattered, the decide this thing leave remain in referendum that settles it for a generation.

    I agree. We can spend a generation listening to the Leavers bleating "It was not my fault - it was meant to be better than this"

    The truth is that Brexit has already destroyed the UK. It is becoming a pale shadow of the country it was 5 years ago.
    Well five years ago we had just had that infamously "non-divisive" indyref...
    That referendum was the right kind of referendum and gave the correct result.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,555
    egg said:

    On topic. But there was only one poll that mattered, the decide this thing leave remain in referendum that settles it for a generation.

    It settles it until a party wins a general election on a promise to rejoin.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,006
    Am I right in thinking the Northern Ireland Assembly will now have some say over the backstop?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,631

    Doctors have identified the first ever case of “Brexit-triggered psychosis”, according to a new report that warns of the dangers posed to mental health by political upheavals.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/what-is-brexit-psychosis/ar-AAI9Vil

    I've spent the last 5 days in Scotland, this appears a widespread illness.
    You think you've got problems. Try teaching about the Wars of the Roses three times a day (because of three A-level groups) and referring to the weakness of Henry VI as a stupid man ruled by corrupt and greedy but not overbright advisers and the partisanship of Richard of York as a dimwitted placeman who believed in his right to a top place because of his familial connections without drawing Johnson and Corbyn parallels.

    It's bloody nearly impossible.
  • eggegg Posts: 414

    egg said:

    On topic. But there was only one poll that mattered, the decide this thing leave remain in referendum that settles it for a generation.

    Agreed. All that matters is that it did vote to leave.
    So if never happens, it’s like a theft?

    I voted remain. I did give it serious thought, because there was nothing about Cameron’s deal getting EU to agree there’s different lanes with different speeds, and in many ways we weren’t entirely in the EU project and never will be. That would have nailed me onto accept his deal without serious thought

    But if we brexit this year or next, and honour 2016 referendum, not a shred of doubt in my mind in 8 years time we will be right back in again.

    No one believes brexit is for keeps with the electorate morphing and knowledge of brexit shifting do they?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,330
    rcs1000 said:

    Am I right in thinking the Northern Ireland Assembly will now have some say over the backstop?

    Yes but given NI assesmbly probably won't sit it will probably end up as a refernedum in Northern Ireland.
  • Doctors have identified the first ever case of “Brexit-triggered psychosis”, according to a new report that warns of the dangers posed to mental health by political upheavals.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/what-is-brexit-psychosis/ar-AAI9Vil

    I've spent the last 5 days in Scotland, this appears a widespread illness.
    Cured by Olazapine apparently - which was what I was on till they switched me to depot :(
    I find the best medicine is Rioja but obviously not in Scotland due to Sturgeon’s fun tax. ;)
    I've switch to Budweiser but I think they may have lowered the ABV - my #Carling4Tennents4indyref2 wasn't catching on anyway.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,935
    edited October 2
    rcs1000 said:

    Am I right in thinking the Northern Ireland Assembly will now have some say over the backstop?

    Yes after 4 years it votes whether to stay aligned with the EU or by default moves to the UK rules which are likely to have diverged by then.

    Big problem for the EU and Ireland is this effectively gives the DUP a veto . There’s no way they’ll agree to that .
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 335
    This is what the EU are listening for right now.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,006
    As an aside, I suspect we will need to have a very short extension even if Boris's deal is agreed. There are a lot of i's to dot and t's to cross from a legal perspective.

    I would also estimate that while agreement is moving from possible to likely. It is still only a 50-60% chance. There are still hurdles here, both foreign and domestic.
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 29

    egg said:

    On topic. But there was only one poll that mattered, the decide this thing leave remain in referendum that settles it for a generation.

    I agree. We can spend a generation listening to the Leavers bleating "It was not my fault - it was meant to be better than this"

    The truth is that Brexit has already destroyed the UK. It is becoming a pale shadow of the country it was 5 years ago.
    Good evening all.

    I think there is a little hyperbole here. For 99.9% of the population life is continuing in the UK pretty much as before.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,555
    I always thought that one of May's unspoken objectives was for the Tories to own Brexit. If Labour MPs are crucial to getting it through I'd bet on at least some Conservatives opposing it. Net result - continued Tory strife.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,006
    nico67 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Am I right in thinking the Northern Ireland Assembly will now have some say over the backstop?

    Yes after 4 years it votes whether to stay aligned with the EU or by default moves to the UK rules which are likely to have diverged by then.

    Big problem for the EU and Ireland is this effectively gives the DUP a veto . There’s no way they’ll agree to that .
    On the contrary, the EU will think (probably correctly) that Northern Ireland will love a backstop that sees them both in the EU and the UK. There will businesses that setup in the province to benefit from that dual status.

    And removing it will therefore always become something for another day.

    I would also like to point out that this is almost exactly what I predicted, and which I was poopooed about on here.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,330
    Boris now has Con + ERG + DUP + Labour Leavers + A few Labour Remainera In Leave Seats.

    EU clearly looking on with interest.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,570
    nico67 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Am I right in thinking the Northern Ireland Assembly will now have some say over the backstop?

    Yes after 4 years it votes whether to stay aligned with the EU or by default moves to the UK rules which are likely to have diverged by then.

    Big problem for the EU and Ireland is this effectively gives the DUP a veto . There’s no way they’ll agree to that .
    Isn't the proposal that the Assembly would have to approve the arrangement before it came into effect (i.e. at the end of the transition period), and then every four years?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,253

    This is what the EU are listening for right now.
    Yep, if it looks like passing they will basically ask Ireland the absolute limit they can stretch to and offer it as a counter offer which Boris will gobble up.
    Labours reaction is entirely unsurprising
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 29

    I always thought that one of May's unspoken objectives was for the Tories to own Brexit. If Labour MPs are crucial to getting it through I'd bet on at least some Conservatives opposing it. Net result - continued Tory strife.
    Are you suggesting some Tories will oppose Boris's deal purely because it may need some Labour votes to get it through. That seems a bit far-fetched! Am I misunderstanding you?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,253
    GIN1138 said:

    Boris now has Con + ERG + DUP + Labour Leavers + A few Labour Remainera In Leave Seats.

    EU clearly looking on with interest.
    Some of the 21 are on board too, Stephen hammond for example. I expect Clarke to vote for it and Soames plus the likes of Nokes, Vaizey and Burt
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,253
    TGOHF2 said:
    All on the EU then but the numbers are clearly there now at this end.....
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    humbugger said:

    egg said:

    On topic. But there was only one poll that mattered, the decide this thing leave remain in referendum that settles it for a generation.

    I agree. We can spend a generation listening to the Leavers bleating "It was not my fault - it was meant to be better than this"

    The truth is that Brexit has already destroyed the UK. It is becoming a pale shadow of the country it was 5 years ago.
    Good evening all.

    I think there is a little hyperbole here. For 99.9% of the population life is continuing in the UK pretty much as before.
    Life after Brexit will be entirely down to the quality of government we elect.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,957
    I know right. It’s all about Cork.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 335

    This is what the EU are listening for right now.
    Yep, if it looks like passing they will basically ask Ireland the absolute limit they can stretch to and offer it as a counter offer which Boris will gobble up.
    Labours reaction is entirely unsurprising
    Yep. Pointless the EU considering anything until it’s clear the main opponents are on board to allow realistic chance of passing. They’re waiting.

    They don’t give a rats backside about Corbyn who’ll nationalise the utilities many of the EU States own. None of them want a Communist UK next door. They can’t afford the eventual food drops and economic aid for one.

    Tick tock.
  • I know right. It’s all about Cork.
    Dublin was been wankerish all the time during negotiations. I'd rather a hard/clean Brexit than to see them happy.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,570
    edited October 2
    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, I suspect we will need to have a very short extension even if Boris's deal is agreed. There are a lot of i's to dot and t's to cross from a legal perspective.

    I would also estimate that while agreement is moving from possible to likely. It is still only a 50-60% chance. There are still hurdles here, both foreign and domestic.

    The betting markets don't seem to think it's anything like as high as 50-60%.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,284
    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, I suspect we will need to have a very short extension even if Boris's deal is agreed. There are a lot of i's to dot and t's to cross from a legal perspective.

    I would also estimate that while agreement is moving from possible to likely. It is still only a 50-60% chance. There are still hurdles here, both foreign and domestic.

    Could we use article 24 for a technical extension that still takes us out of political membership, if a deal is agreed?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,253
    Corbyn increasingly yesterdays man
  • Boris has repolarised the Northern Ireland debate. He has gained the DUP but lost majority opinion.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/02/johnsons-new-plan-for-border-disastrous-say-northern-irish-leaders
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 3,097
    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, I suspect we will need to have a very short extension even if Boris's deal is agreed. There are a lot of i's to dot and t's to cross from a legal perspective.

    I would also estimate that while agreement is moving from possible to likely. It is still only a 50-60% chance. There are still hurdles here, both foreign and domestic.

    The betting markets don't seem to think it's anything like as high as 50-60%.
    Or the currency markets
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,958
    rcs1000 said:

    nico67 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Am I right in thinking the Northern Ireland Assembly will now have some say over the backstop?

    Yes after 4 years it votes whether to stay aligned with the EU or by default moves to the UK rules which are likely to have diverged by then.

    Big problem for the EU and Ireland is this effectively gives the DUP a veto . There’s no way they’ll agree to that .
    On the contrary, the EU will think (probably correctly) that Northern Ireland will love a backstop that sees them both in the EU and the UK. There will businesses that setup in the province to benefit from that dual status.

    And removing it will therefore always become something for another day.

    I would also like to point out that this is almost exactly what I predicted, and which I was poopooed about on here.
    Northern Ireland doesn't love it.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,935
    What a pathetic comment.
  • rcs1000 said:

    nico67 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Am I right in thinking the Northern Ireland Assembly will now have some say over the backstop?

    Yes after 4 years it votes whether to stay aligned with the EU or by default moves to the UK rules which are likely to have diverged by then.

    Big problem for the EU and Ireland is this effectively gives the DUP a veto . There’s no way they’ll agree to that .
    On the contrary, the EU will think (probably correctly) that Northern Ireland will love a backstop that sees them both in the EU and the UK. There will businesses that setup in the province to benefit from that dual status.

    And removing it will therefore always become something for another day.

    I would also like to point out that this is almost exactly what I predicted, and which I was poopooed about on here.
    Northern Ireland doesn't love it.

    Just as well his confidence and supply arrangement is with,.... err, the DUP?
  • nico67 said:

    What a pathetic comment.
    LOL - even hippy dippy Ms Briskin approved it
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    rcs1000 said:

    nico67 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Am I right in thinking the Northern Ireland Assembly will now have some say over the backstop?

    Yes after 4 years it votes whether to stay aligned with the EU or by default moves to the UK rules which are likely to have diverged by then.

    Big problem for the EU and Ireland is this effectively gives the DUP a veto . There’s no way they’ll agree to that .
    On the contrary, the EU will think (probably correctly) that Northern Ireland will love a backstop that sees them both in the EU and the UK. There will businesses that setup in the province to benefit from that dual status.

    And removing it will therefore always become something for another day.

    I would also like to point out that this is almost exactly what I predicted, and which I was poopooed about on here.
    Northern Ireland doesn't love it.

    Anything that has Shinner support would be very worrying indeed.
  • chloechloe Posts: 291
    Evening all it seems like Boris might have the votes to get this through the Commons. Will the EU accept? I voted remain and regret the result but if we have to leave then we should leave with a deal.
  • isamisam Posts: 28,277
    edited October 2
    We have had 39 months of parliamentary chaos thanks to MPs refusing to back any form of us leaving, relentless media on how awful it is going to be if we do leave, is it any wonder that some people are beginning to wish it had never happened?

    I would compare it to going out drinking with your mates, having a right good laugh, coming home 8 hours late, then being put in the doghouse for a month... I bet a significant minority of men would say it wasnt worth it. The difference is that voting Leave wasnt something to be put in the doghouse for
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 641
    I misunderestimated Boris. He's actually put together a proposal which stands a chance of passing through the house of Commons. I think it helps that he's got the buyoff from the DUP and I assume they were consulted prior to it being released.

    The irony is that Sinn Fein would have mitigate the power that the DUP appear to have if they took their seats in the commons. Not because of the numbers, although that would matter, but because the government would have to take their opinions into account. as they do not, the government can, to a certain extent, ignore them.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,500
    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, I suspect we will need to have a very short extension even if Boris's deal is agreed. There are a lot of i's to dot and t's to cross from a legal perspective.

    Well I suppose both sides could retrospectively legislate that the departure date was 31st October.

    Lib Dem’s should have pushed for that election...

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418
    isam said:

    We have had 39 months of parliamentary chaos thanks to MPs refusing to back any form of us leaving, relentless media on how awful it is going to be if we do leave, is it any wonder that some people are beginning to wish it had never happened?

    I would compare it to going out drinking with your mates, having a right good laugh, coming home 8 hours late, then being put in the doghouse for a month... I bet a significant minority of men would say it wasnt worth it. The difference is that voting Leave wasnt something to be put in the doghouse for

    And come next month, they'd still vote to do it all again!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,481
    If the straws in the wind are right then Boris is starting to bounce around in the 295 to 305 box for votes for his Deal, if, indeed, there is a Deal to be had on these lines.

    He’s still 25-30 short. Needs a few expelled Tories to party and probably another good 15-20 Labour MPs.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,314
    Today reminds me of Mays triumph at Chequers.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,935
    What Johnson has on his side . Many MPs surely must be getting weary and worn down by the last few years .

    The public probably in the same place . And the EU are fed up and sick of Brexit and want to move on .

    If the EU and UK can sort out the governance part which stops the DUP from having a veto then I’m hopeful of a deal , however of course trying to keep the DUP onside then is another matter .

  • Anyone would think they bunch of loonies running the countries in the british isles were PB fans
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,253
    edited October 2
    Tbf the commons today on domestic abuse is the commons at it's best
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 641
    It's certainly not the outright no it could have been
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,935
    True , I think the give away is the fully bit.

    I’m even more hopeful of a deal after that .
  • You're translating Varadkar wrong everyone. He's saying F off

    Stock up on canned goods.
  • Jonathan said:

    Today reminds me of Mays triumph at Chequers.

    Exactly. The Commons will vote on the text of an International Treaty not a padded out wish list turned into a press release which is what Boris' document is. Which isn't to say the redrafted WA won't get closer or even pass. But today tells us nothing about the likelihood of that and we've had enough of these ' negotiating with ourselves ' media bubbles to recognise them by now.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 641

    If the straws in the wind are right then Boris is starting to bounce around in the 295 to 305 box for votes for his Deal, if, indeed, there is a Deal to be had on these lines.

    He’s still 25-30 short. Needs a few expelled Tories to party and probably another good 15-20 Labour MPs.

    most of the expelled tory MPs, even arch remainer Ken Clarke have, and have said that they would continue to, voted for a deal. That won't change because of the person proposing the deal
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,284



    Check out the comments. Brexit alliance fracturing. Nigel looking like he is over reaching
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,762
    Lets say boris does get a deal, does his poll rating go up or down?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,253
    Freggles said:




    Check out the comments. Brexit alliance fracturing. Nigel looking like he is over reaching

    Yesterday's yesterday's man
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 8,619
    GIN1138 said:

    When would the vote on the QS be held?

    Lets say this is the sequence:

    QS on 14th October.

    Boris gets his deal on 17th/18th October.

    Boris presents his deal to Parliament on 21st October. Passes. 31st October is secured as date we leave.

    QS is voted on 21st/22nd October. It fails.

    One line election bill is presented to Parliament 23rd October. Passes with Con + DUP + SNP + Lib-Dem votes

    Election held on 28th November or 5th December.

    I don't think Johnson can present his Deal to Parliament in advance of the vote on the Queens Speech.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 1,121
    I think that in order to get through the EU, new EU primary legislation will be needed as I can’t see how this “split border” idea works under the current law. That brings in the Council and the Parliament.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 641

    You're translating Varadkar wrong everyone. He's saying F off

    Stock up on canned goods.

    Verhofstadt has said that there would be a point by point dismantling of, sorry response to, the proposal and why it doesn't meet the objectives tomorrow. We'll know for sure tomorrow.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 1,087

    Lets say boris does get a deal, does his poll rating go up or down?

    Landslide territory!
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,253

    Lets say boris does get a deal, does his poll rating go up or down?

    He will have a window to try and ride an uptick from a relieved electorate
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,006
    Freggles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, I suspect we will need to have a very short extension even if Boris's deal is agreed. There are a lot of i's to dot and t's to cross from a legal perspective.

    I would also estimate that while agreement is moving from possible to likely. It is still only a 50-60% chance. There are still hurdles here, both foreign and domestic.

    Could we use article 24 for a technical extension that still takes us out of political membership, if a deal is agreed?
    The issue is not that; it's simply that there are a lot of actors with a veto over the process, and a lot of legalese that needs to be checked ahead of signature. (And Article 24 doesn't help with issues like tax.)

    If the agreement was finalised now, we would probably make it on October 31st. Realistically, though, we're likely to come to an agreement on about the 18th or 19th, and it will take three weeks to get this into tight legal agreement and through the various parliaments.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,081
    Better phrasing than Kinnock’s “if the EU and Dublin are happy so are we”
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,762

    Lets say boris does get a deal, does his poll rating go up or down?

    Landslide territory!
    I think there is a good chance tories poll lower, as brexit party take back those who hate the crap deal (as will be described by farage).
  • spudgfsh said:

    You're translating Varadkar wrong everyone. He's saying F off

    Stock up on canned goods.

    Verhofstadt has said that there would be a point by point dismantling of, sorry response to, the proposal and why it doesn't meet the objectives tomorrow. We'll know for sure tomorrow.
    They (Dublin especially) have been bad faith negotiators all along - why would they change?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,006
    DougSeal said:

    I think that in order to get through the EU, new EU primary legislation will be needed as I can’t see how this “split border” idea works under the current law. That brings in the Council and the Parliament.

    I don't think it requires Primary EU legislation at this stage. But it will require 28-odd countries to go through ratification processes, translations (arguments), the EU Council, the EU Parliament, both Houses of the UK Parliament, etc. which is not trivial.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,481
    spudgfsh said:

    If the straws in the wind are right then Boris is starting to bounce around in the 295 to 305 box for votes for his Deal, if, indeed, there is a Deal to be had on these lines.

    He’s still 25-30 short. Needs a few expelled Tories to party and probably another good 15-20 Labour MPs.

    most of the expelled tory MPs, even arch remainer Ken Clarke have, and have said that they would continue to, voted for a deal. That won't change because of the person proposing the deal
    I hope that’s right. I’ve only assumed 10 of the 21 in my calculations.

    Maybe that’s too harsh.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,481
    edited October 2
    Freggles said:




    Check out the comments. Brexit alliance fracturing. Nigel looking like he is over reaching


    “Nigel” is too distracted by his hatred for Cummings to think rationally.

    It’s the ERG wing of his Brexit party voting alliance that might defect and he has to worry about.

    Of course, that does depend on the Spartans coming out for it first.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,052
    Is the only amendment to May's deal around the backstop?

    What about the level playing field commitments?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,081
    rcs1000 said:

    nico67 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Am I right in thinking the Northern Ireland Assembly will now have some say over the backstop?

    Yes after 4 years it votes whether to stay aligned with the EU or by default moves to the UK rules which are likely to have diverged by then.

    Big problem for the EU and Ireland is this effectively gives the DUP a veto . There’s no way they’ll agree to that .
    On the contrary, the EU will think (probably correctly) that Northern Ireland will love a backstop that sees them both in the EU and the UK. There will businesses that setup in the province to benefit from that dual status.

    And removing it will therefore always become something for another day.

    I would also like to point out that this is almost exactly what I predicted, and which I was poopooed about on here.
    Nah you predicted a referendum 😆

    This gives the DUP the ability to hold out a begging bowl develop a compelling proposition for economic development investment every 4 years from now until eternity
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,935

    Lets say boris does get a deal, does his poll rating go up or down?

    Up !

    Farages betrayal narrative will soon be overtaken by the fact that the UK has actually left.

    I don’t like Johnson however if we leave with an orderly exit and a deal then I’ll say well done.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,006

    If the straws in the wind are right then Boris is starting to bounce around in the 295 to 305 box for votes for his Deal, if, indeed, there is a Deal to be had on these lines.

    He’s still 25-30 short. Needs a few expelled Tories to party and probably another good 15-20 Labour MPs.

    The expelled Tories all voted for a deal that is 99% this deal.

    The only difference between Mrs May's deal and this one is that the backstop is timelimited to four years unless the Northern Irish wish it otherwise. (Which they will. The reality is, of course, that Northern Ireland would have left the backstop under Mrs May's deal, but never will under this one.)
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 641

    spudgfsh said:

    You're translating Varadkar wrong everyone. He's saying F off

    Stock up on canned goods.

    Verhofstadt has said that there would be a point by point dismantling of, sorry response to, the proposal and why it doesn't meet the objectives tomorrow. We'll know for sure tomorrow.
    They (Dublin especially) have been bad faith negotiators all along - why would they change?
    Not Dublin, just Varadkar. he's enjoyed having the power over the UK.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,006

    spudgfsh said:

    You're translating Varadkar wrong everyone. He's saying F off

    Stock up on canned goods.

    Verhofstadt has said that there would be a point by point dismantling of, sorry response to, the proposal and why it doesn't meet the objectives tomorrow. We'll know for sure tomorrow.
    They (Dublin especially) have been bad faith negotiators all along - why would they change?
    Yawn.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,081

    I know right. It’s all about Cork.
    Connemara is the beating heart of Ireland
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,006
    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    You're translating Varadkar wrong everyone. He's saying F off

    Stock up on canned goods.

    Verhofstadt has said that there would be a point by point dismantling of, sorry response to, the proposal and why it doesn't meet the objectives tomorrow. We'll know for sure tomorrow.
    They (Dublin especially) have been bad faith negotiators all along - why would they change?
    Not Dublin, just Varadkar. he's enjoyed having the power over the UK.
    But that's not being "bad faith". That's just being a dick and trying to use a situation to one's own advantage.

    Something that happens in negotiations all the time.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,081

    rcs1000 said:

    nico67 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Am I right in thinking the Northern Ireland Assembly will now have some say over the backstop?

    Yes after 4 years it votes whether to stay aligned with the EU or by default moves to the UK rules which are likely to have diverged by then.

    Big problem for the EU and Ireland is this effectively gives the DUP a veto . There’s no way they’ll agree to that .
    On the contrary, the EU will think (probably correctly) that Northern Ireland will love a backstop that sees them both in the EU and the UK. There will businesses that setup in the province to benefit from that dual status.

    And removing it will therefore always become something for another day.

    I would also like to point out that this is almost exactly what I predicted, and which I was poopooed about on here.
    Northern Ireland doesn't love it.

    Of which the DUP has the most votes in Parliament
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,481
    nico67 said:

    True , I think the give away is the fully bit.

    I’m even more hopeful of a deal after that .
    May was panned by the EU after Chequers too.

    All part of the game.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 641

    spudgfsh said:

    If the straws in the wind are right then Boris is starting to bounce around in the 295 to 305 box for votes for his Deal, if, indeed, there is a Deal to be had on these lines.

    He’s still 25-30 short. Needs a few expelled Tories to party and probably another good 15-20 Labour MPs.

    most of the expelled tory MPs, even arch remainer Ken Clarke have, and have said that they would continue to, voted for a deal. That won't change because of the person proposing the deal
    I hope that’s right. I’ve only assumed 10 of the 21 in my calculations.

    Maybe that’s too harsh.
    most MPs have voted the way that they did because they didn't want a No-Deal brexit. it was the ERG who wanted Brexit the most but wouldn't vote for it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,481
    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    If the straws in the wind are right then Boris is starting to bounce around in the 295 to 305 box for votes for his Deal, if, indeed, there is a Deal to be had on these lines.

    He’s still 25-30 short. Needs a few expelled Tories to party and probably another good 15-20 Labour MPs.

    most of the expelled tory MPs, even arch remainer Ken Clarke have, and have said that they would continue to, voted for a deal. That won't change because of the person proposing the deal
    I hope that’s right. I’ve only assumed 10 of the 21 in my calculations.

    Maybe that’s too harsh.
    most MPs have voted the way that they did because they didn't want a No-Deal brexit. it was the ERG who wanted Brexit the most but wouldn't vote for it.
    Yes, but you’ve still got Grieve, Bebb and Jo Johnson etc who probably won’t vote for any Deal.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,481
    rcs1000 said:

    If the straws in the wind are right then Boris is starting to bounce around in the 295 to 305 box for votes for his Deal, if, indeed, there is a Deal to be had on these lines.

    He’s still 25-30 short. Needs a few expelled Tories to party and probably another good 15-20 Labour MPs.

    The expelled Tories all voted for a deal that is 99% this deal.

    The only difference between Mrs May's deal and this one is that the backstop is timelimited to four years unless the Northern Irish wish it otherwise. (Which they will. The reality is, of course, that Northern Ireland would have left the backstop under Mrs May's deal, but never will under this one.)
    May didn’t stroke their egos.

    That’s the difference.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,935
    rcs1000 said:

    Freggles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, I suspect we will need to have a very short extension even if Boris's deal is agreed. There are a lot of i's to dot and t's to cross from a legal perspective.

    I would also estimate that while agreement is moving from possible to likely. It is still only a 50-60% chance. There are still hurdles here, both foreign and domestic.

    Could we use article 24 for a technical extension that still takes us out of political membership, if a deal is agreed?
    The issue is not that; it's simply that there are a lot of actors with a veto over the process, and a lot of legalese that needs to be checked ahead of signature. (And Article 24 doesn't help with issues like tax.)

    If the agreement was finalised now, we would probably make it on October 31st. Realistically, though, we're likely to come to an agreement on about the 18th or 19th, and it will take three weeks to get this into tight legal agreement and through the various parliaments.
    It doesn’t need each EU country parliament as it’s not a trade deal . It only has to be ratified by the EU parliament .
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 641
    rcs1000 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    You're translating Varadkar wrong everyone. He's saying F off

    Stock up on canned goods.

    Verhofstadt has said that there would be a point by point dismantling of, sorry response to, the proposal and why it doesn't meet the objectives tomorrow. We'll know for sure tomorrow.
    They (Dublin especially) have been bad faith negotiators all along - why would they change?
    Not Dublin, just Varadkar. he's enjoyed having the power over the UK.
    But that's not being "bad faith". That's just being a dick and trying to use a situation to one's own advantage.

    Something that happens in negotiations all the time.
    He's not wanted a deal, he doesn't want the UK to leave the EU, for purely domestic reasons. it's bad faith if you go into a negotiation when you are not going to agree to anything.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 815
    Thing that is not the backstop is not the backstop, says man.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,253

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    If the straws in the wind are right then Boris is starting to bounce around in the 295 to 305 box for votes for his Deal, if, indeed, there is a Deal to be had on these lines.

    He’s still 25-30 short. Needs a few expelled Tories to party and probably another good 15-20 Labour MPs.

    most of the expelled tory MPs, even arch remainer Ken Clarke have, and have said that they would continue to, voted for a deal. That won't change because of the person proposing the deal
    I hope that’s right. I’ve only assumed 10 of the 21 in my calculations.

    Maybe that’s too harsh.
    most MPs have voted the way that they did because they didn't want a No-Deal brexit. it was the ERG who wanted Brexit the most but wouldn't vote for it.
    Yes, but you’ve still got Grieve, Bebb and Jo Johnson etc who probably won’t vote for any Deal.
    But to offset, field, hoey, Austin, Lewis, elphicke plus labour 4 a deal. He can probably lose 15 current or ex Tories and get it through
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 1,121
    spudgfsh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    You're translating Varadkar wrong everyone. He's saying F off

    Stock up on canned goods.

    Verhofstadt has said that there would be a point by point dismantling of, sorry response to, the proposal and why it doesn't meet the objectives tomorrow. We'll know for sure tomorrow.
    They (Dublin especially) have been bad faith negotiators all along - why would they change?
    Not Dublin, just Varadkar. he's enjoyed having the power over the UK.
    But that's not being "bad faith". That's just being a dick and trying to use a situation to one's own advantage.

    Something that happens in negotiations all the time.
    He's not wanted a deal, he doesn't want the UK to leave the EU, for purely domestic reasons. it's bad faith if you go into a negotiation when you are not going to agree to anything.
    I don’t think that is true at all.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,006
    spudgfsh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    You're translating Varadkar wrong everyone. He's saying F off

    Stock up on canned goods.

    Verhofstadt has said that there would be a point by point dismantling of, sorry response to, the proposal and why it doesn't meet the objectives tomorrow. We'll know for sure tomorrow.
    They (Dublin especially) have been bad faith negotiators all along - why would they change?
    Not Dublin, just Varadkar. he's enjoyed having the power over the UK.
    But that's not being "bad faith". That's just being a dick and trying to use a situation to one's own advantage.

    Something that happens in negotiations all the time.
    He's not wanted a deal, he doesn't want the UK to leave the EU, for purely domestic reasons. it's bad faith if you go into a negotiation when you are not going to agree to anything.
    I think an example of bad faith negotiation would be Jeremy Corbyn's with Theresa May. He said he wanted a deal to leave the EU, but there was literally no deal he would accept.

    On the contrary, the Irish have had the power in the negotiation with the UK this time around (which is pretty unusual for relations between the two countries), and have used it to their advantage by demanding more than we feel comfortable.

    They have stated what they want, and they are sincere in those demands. They know the consequences of No Deal. It's our job to call their bluff (or not).

    That's not bad faith.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 3,097

    Freggles said:




    Check out the comments. Brexit alliance fracturing. Nigel looking like he is over reaching


    “Nigel” is too distracted by his hatred for Cummings to think rationally.

    It’s the ERG wing of his Brexit party voting alliance that might defect and he has to worry about.

    Of course, that does depend on the Spartans coming out for it first.
    That’s the Tory twitter army going to work rubbishing farage nothing else
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 1,315
    humbugger said:

    I always thought that one of May's unspoken objectives was for the Tories to own Brexit. If Labour MPs are crucial to getting it through I'd bet on at least some Conservatives opposing it. Net result - continued Tory strife.
    Are you suggesting some Tories will oppose Boris's deal purely because it may need some Labour votes to get it through. That seems a bit far-fetched! Am I misunderstanding you?
    That is what the ERG have been doing all along,
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 8,619
    I believe that post-Prorogation the first Parliamentary vote will be on the Queens Speech. If defeated , a VNOC will take place the next day without the Deal having been presented.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,035
    nico67 said:

    Lets say boris does get a deal, does his poll rating go up or down?

    Up !

    Farages betrayal narrative will soon be overtaken by the fact that the UK has actually left.

    I don’t like Johnson however if we leave with an orderly exit and a deal then I’ll say well done.

    Or down, the header shows most people do not want to Leave. Why would they be impressed?
This discussion has been closed.