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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Reports of a heart scare for Bernie Sanders help Warren move t

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited October 3 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Reports of a heart scare for Bernie Sanders help Warren move to become odds on favourite for the nomination

Two national polls and a couple of state surveys in the last 2-days have  shown that Senator Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts is heading the field, by a clear margin, in the fight to be the Democratic nominee in next year’s White House Race. This is a big change for until now the former VP, Joe Biden, had dominated just about all the surveys.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,035
    First like Warren
  • NooNoo Posts: 1,661
    edited October 3
    Second like Trump
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894
    Third like YANGGANG 2020 (Or hopefully not considering my betting position on him)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    edited October 3
    Warren is now the likely Democratic nominee not Biden which is good news for Trump.

    For example the latest Firehouse Michigan poll has Biden leading Trump 42% to 41% and Trump leading Warren 42% to 41%, while in Pennsylvania Biden leads Trump 45% to 41% but Warren only leads Trump 43% to 41% and in Wisconsin Biden leads Trump by 44% to 42% but Warren only leads Trump by 43% to 42%.

    http://firehousestrategies.com/exclusive-survey-democrats-lead-trump-in-key-swing-states/
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 510
    5th like Bernie
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,035
    On topic the latest alt.right smears on Warren are interesting!

  • Kamala Harris is the obvious equillibrium point between the desires of the Democratic base and electability. However Democratic activists aren't in the mood for equillibrium. It's a very high risk - high reward strategy. Thank God for Nancy Pelosi.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,200
    Foxy said:

    On topic the latest alt.right smears on Warren are interesting!

    Shock the conscious ?

    Fortunately the decision to vote against Trump is one most can make in their sleep.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,200
    Pulpstar said:

    Third like YANGGANG 2020 (Or hopefully not considering my betting position on him)

    Ten million dollar man...
    https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/02/andrew-yang-fundraising-third-quarter-022493
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888

    Kamala Harris is the obvious equillibrium point between the desires of the Democratic base and electability. However Democratic activists aren't in the mood for equillibrium. It's a very high risk - high reward strategy. Thank God for Nancy Pelosi.

    Kamala Harris is a black Hillary Clinton
  • eggegg Posts: 414
    edited October 3
    Still just proposals, still in negotiation and we can’t call it a deal as yet. It’s still to be thoroughly tested.

    Is the main change to the WA to be DUP compromises on border in Irish Sea in exchange for power In stormant to come out an arrangement it will never vote to do?

    Does the border in the Irish Sea cover enough goods to satisfy EU? And the fact the stormant veto makes it time influenced not permanent?

    Whatelse changes from May’s WA for Spartans to come onside and brexit party to be sidelined?

    Will remain Tories come on board now so close to things moving in their favour and UK remaining? Ditto for anyone set on clean break brexit now have to have MayBoris brexit when they so close to winning with no deal.

    Labour MPs may sound supportive this far out, but when it comes to ending their political career in the Labour Party by following Boris through the Lobby to deliver a Tory brexit, will there really be that many?

    We should view it not as a deal but questions questions yea more questions
  • Hugely significant intervention from Corbyn today and ex cathedra as well. His most significant since calling for the immeadiate invocation of A50 on the morning of 24/6/16.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,200
    edited October 3
    Calling @malcolmg ...
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-49915034
    Single malt Scotch whisky targeted by United States tariffs
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,253
    Justine Greening looks really pissed off
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,607
    HYUFD said:

    Warren is now the likely Democratic nominee not Biden which is good news for Trump.

    For example the latest Firehouse Michigan poll has Biden leading Trump 42% to 41% and Trump leading Warren 42% to 41%, while in Pennsylvania Biden leads Trump 45% to 41% but Warren only leads Trump 43% to 41% and in Wisconsin Biden leads Trump by 44% to 42% but Warren only leads Trump by 43% to 42%.

    http://firehousestrategies.com/exclusive-survey-democrats-lead-trump-in-key-swing-states/

    I spoke to some US citizens when I was in Gibralter last week. They were registed Democrats and thought Warren would be a difficult sell. They were very anti Trump and I suggested Biden was best placed to beat Trump, which they agreed. They lived and campaigned in Pennsylvania. A straw in the wind maybe....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 2,274
    edited October 3
    Loving the latest from the Extinction Rebellion pillocks:

    How do you manage to miss a target as big as the Treasury Building when you are spraying an entire Fire Engine full of fake blood?



    At least this time they weren't preventing ambulances getting to emergencies or causing cancer patients to miss their treatment.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,773
    MattW said:

    Loving the latest from the Extinction Rebellion pillocks:

    How do you manage to miss a target as big as the Treasury Building when you are spraying an entire Fire Engine full of fake blood?



    At least this time they weren't preventing ambulances getting to emergencies or causing cancer patients to miss their treatment.

    Enoch's prediction coming true...
  • Foxy said:

    On topic the latest alt.right smears on Warren are interesting!

    This pair of clowns are going to run out of road pretty soon, I'm amazed Jacob Wohl isn't already in jail.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221
    With apologies...

    Am I right in thinking that during the transition period for this deal (as with May's deal) there will be no changes to our trading arrangements with the EU?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,253

    With apologies...

    Am I right in thinking that during the transition period for this deal (as with May's deal) there will be no changes to our trading arrangements with the EU?

    Yes I think you are
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 8,619
    egg said:

    Still just proposals, still in negotiation and we can’t call it a deal as yet. It’s still to be thoroughly tested.

    Is the main change to the WA to be DUP compromises on border in Irish Sea in exchange for power In stormant to come out an arrangement it will never vote to do?

    Does the border in the Irish Sea cover enough goods to satisfy EU? And the fact the stormant veto makes it time influenced not permanent?

    Whatelse changes from May’s WA for Spartans to come onside and brexit party to be sidelined?

    Will remain Tories come on board now so close to things moving in their favour and UK remaining? Ditto for anyone set on clean break brexit now have to have MayBoris brexit when they so close to winning with no deal.

    Labour MPs may sound supportive this far out, but when it comes to ending their political career in the Labour Party by following Boris through the Lobby to deliver a Tory brexit, will there really be that many?

    We should view it not as a deal but questions questions yea more questions

    Why would Labour vote for Johnson's Deal rather than using Benn's Bill to block No Deal?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    edited October 3

    HYUFD said:

    Warren is now the likely Democratic nominee not Biden which is good news for Trump.

    For example the latest Firehouse Michigan poll has Biden leading Trump 42% to 41% and Trump leading Warren 42% to 41%, while in Pennsylvania Biden leads Trump 45% to 41% but Warren only leads Trump 43% to 41% and in Wisconsin Biden leads Trump by 44% to 42% but Warren only leads Trump by 43% to 42%.

    http://firehousestrategies.com/exclusive-survey-democrats-lead-trump-in-key-swing-states/

    I spoke to some US citizens when I was in Gibralter last week. They were registed Democrats and thought Warren would be a difficult sell. They were very anti Trump and I suggested Biden was best placed to beat Trump, which they agreed. They lived and campaigned in Pennsylvania. A straw in the wind maybe....
    Yes, sound advice from them.

    Elizabeth Warren is John Kerry or Michael Dukakis in a skirt, a harder sell than Obama's VP
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 16,173
    HYUFD said:

    Warren is now the likely Democratic nominee not Biden which is good news for Trump.

    For example the latest Firehouse Michigan poll has Biden leading Trump 42% to 41% and Trump leading Warren 42% to 41%, while in Pennsylvania Biden leads Trump 45% to 41% but Warren only leads Trump 43% to 41% and in Wisconsin Biden leads Trump by 44% to 42% but Warren only leads Trump by 43% to 42%.

    http://firehousestrategies.com/exclusive-survey-democrats-lead-trump-in-key-swing-states/

    MOE for when subsamples just aren't unreliable enough.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534

    With apologies...

    Am I right in thinking that during the transition period for this deal (as with May's deal) there will be no changes to our trading arrangements with the EU?

    Yes. Entirely reasonable considering that sudden changes within days [not even months] from now may not be the smartest move if there's a reasonable alternative.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,056

    HYUFD said:

    Warren is now the likely Democratic nominee not Biden which is good news for Trump.

    For example the latest Firehouse Michigan poll has Biden leading Trump 42% to 41% and Trump leading Warren 42% to 41%, while in Pennsylvania Biden leads Trump 45% to 41% but Warren only leads Trump 43% to 41% and in Wisconsin Biden leads Trump by 44% to 42% but Warren only leads Trump by 43% to 42%.

    http://firehousestrategies.com/exclusive-survey-democrats-lead-trump-in-key-swing-states/

    I spoke to some US citizens when I was in Gibralter last week. They were registed Democrats and thought Warren would be a difficult sell. They were very anti Trump and I suggested Biden was best placed to beat Trump, which they agreed. They lived and campaigned in Pennsylvania. A straw in the wind maybe....
    I was all for Biden a few months ago, as the only one who can beat Trump. Recent mistakes he has made are worrying, to say the least. Can he last the course?

    I remain deeply unconvinced that Warren is capable of beating Trump.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221

    With apologies...

    Am I right in thinking that during the transition period for this deal (as with May's deal) there will be no changes to our trading arrangements with the EU?

    Yes I think you are
    Thanks.

    The next crunch point will be the end of the transition period then (31 Dec 2020?) when a FTA needs to be agreed. But that could be a new government and might not need HoC approval.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534
    justin124 said:

    egg said:

    Still just proposals, still in negotiation and we can’t call it a deal as yet. It’s still to be thoroughly tested.

    Is the main change to the WA to be DUP compromises on border in Irish Sea in exchange for power In stormant to come out an arrangement it will never vote to do?

    Does the border in the Irish Sea cover enough goods to satisfy EU? And the fact the stormant veto makes it time influenced not permanent?

    Whatelse changes from May’s WA for Spartans to come onside and brexit party to be sidelined?

    Will remain Tories come on board now so close to things moving in their favour and UK remaining? Ditto for anyone set on clean break brexit now have to have MayBoris brexit when they so close to winning with no deal.

    Labour MPs may sound supportive this far out, but when it comes to ending their political career in the Labour Party by following Boris through the Lobby to deliver a Tory brexit, will there really be that many?

    We should view it not as a deal but questions questions yea more questions

    Why would Labour vote for Johnson's Deal rather than using Benn's Bill to block No Deal?
    Benn's Bill doesn't block No Deal, it just delays it. The only things that block No Deal are as they always have been agreeing a deal or agreeing revocation.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534

    With apologies...

    Am I right in thinking that during the transition period for this deal (as with May's deal) there will be no changes to our trading arrangements with the EU?

    Yes I think you are
    Thanks.

    The next crunch point will be the end of the transition period then (31 Dec 2020?) when a FTA needs to be agreed. But that could be a new government and might not need HoC approval.
    Don't all FTA's need ratification?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221

    With apologies...

    Am I right in thinking that during the transition period for this deal (as with May's deal) there will be no changes to our trading arrangements with the EU?

    Yes. Entirely reasonable considering that sudden changes within days [not even months] from now may not be the smartest move if there's a reasonable alternative.
    Yes indeed.

    I remain a Remainer but I would have been happy with May's Deal and subject to the NI detail, I'd be ok if this one was agreed.

    We could maybe move on to all those lovely Tory spending promises then :wink:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,995
    Warren remains the likely contender. Sanders never was going to make it second time lucky, and it is clear that the Reps are going to try and turn as much of the mud from the Ukraine issue in Biden’s direction; some of it will stick since his son had no qualifications for the job other than being the VPs son, so the situation doesn’t smell sweet.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,056
    This. A thousand times this, Momentum remainer kids:

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221

    justin124 said:

    egg said:

    Still just proposals, still in negotiation and we can’t call it a deal as yet. It’s still to be thoroughly tested.

    Is the main change to the WA to be DUP compromises on border in Irish Sea in exchange for power In stormant to come out an arrangement it will never vote to do?

    Does the border in the Irish Sea cover enough goods to satisfy EU? And the fact the stormant veto makes it time influenced not permanent?

    Whatelse changes from May’s WA for Spartans to come onside and brexit party to be sidelined?

    Will remain Tories come on board now so close to things moving in their favour and UK remaining? Ditto for anyone set on clean break brexit now have to have MayBoris brexit when they so close to winning with no deal.

    Labour MPs may sound supportive this far out, but when it comes to ending their political career in the Labour Party by following Boris through the Lobby to deliver a Tory brexit, will there really be that many?

    We should view it not as a deal but questions questions yea more questions

    Why would Labour vote for Johnson's Deal rather than using Benn's Bill to block No Deal?
    Benn's Bill doesn't block No Deal, it just delays it. The only things that block No Deal are as they always have been agreeing a deal or agreeing revocation.
    +1

    Darn it, that's the second time today I have to agree with @Philip_Thompson!

    I much prefer it when we're arguing :smile:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,056
    IanB2 said:

    Warren remains the likely contender. Sanders never was going to make it second time lucky, and it is clear that the Reps are going to try and turn as much of the mud from the Ukraine issue in Biden’s direction; some of it will stick since his son had no qualifications for the job other than being the VPs son, so the situation doesn’t smell sweet.

    Indeed. It seems odd to me to be using this issue to go after Trump, when he will obviously tear down Biden at same time.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,607

    HYUFD said:

    Warren is now the likely Democratic nominee not Biden which is good news for Trump.

    For example the latest Firehouse Michigan poll has Biden leading Trump 42% to 41% and Trump leading Warren 42% to 41%, while in Pennsylvania Biden leads Trump 45% to 41% but Warren only leads Trump 43% to 41% and in Wisconsin Biden leads Trump by 44% to 42% but Warren only leads Trump by 43% to 42%.

    http://firehousestrategies.com/exclusive-survey-democrats-lead-trump-in-key-swing-states/

    I spoke to some US citizens when I was in Gibralter last week. They were registed Democrats and thought Warren would be a difficult sell. They were very anti Trump and I suggested Biden was best placed to beat Trump, which they agreed. They lived and campaigned in Pennsylvania. A straw in the wind maybe....
    I was all for Biden a few months ago, as the only one who can beat Trump. Recent mistakes he has made are worrying, to say the least. Can he last the course?

    I remain deeply unconvinced that Warren is capable of beating Trump.
    Indeed, I think one has to remember Presidential elections in the US plumb the depths of degredation, which is not replicated in other countries to the same extent. If Trump can win the EC in 2016 I cannot see why Biden cannot. POTUS candidates always have question marks, if it is not a real problem: opponents will make it up! Think swift boats for Kerry in 2004 etc.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,701

    Hugely significant intervention from Corbyn today and ex cathedra as well. His most significant since calling for the immeadiate invocation of A50 on the morning of 24/6/16.

    But Corbyn, like a surprising number of other people, is missing the very obvious point: any deal that Johnson brings to MPs will not look like the proposals he has submitted. They will look like what the EU wants. At that point the ERG will not vote for them. That's why this whole exercise is nothing more than a game. For that reason the tone to have adopted today is the one that the Tory rebels have - welcome the proposals, observe the small concessions, push on Northern Ireland and wish him luck. In other words, keep powder dry. I thought it was noticeable that in her intervention Swinson was actually far more measured than Corbyn.

    The real challenge for Johnson now is deciding when to walk away. He needs to get the timing just right. The more he says that progress is being made, the more emollient the EU is, the harder it will be for him to storm off and convince any but the most credulous that this is not what he had been planning all along.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534
    As a long and consistent proponent of legally-binding changes being made to the WDA for the past year, I must say I'm quite pleased with the past 24 hours. Curious whether all those who said that the WDA could never be changed are quite as confident of that now?

    Despite coming across as one I've never been a "Spartan" no dealer though I would have been a Spartan MP if I was one because I couldn't support the undemocratic backstop. It feels quite good to be able to back a deal now. Lets just hope there is a deal.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,822
    Boris has played a blinder. Yes, a few things will be shaved off his deal to make it indistinguishable from Theresa's, but we always knew this would happen. The EU will keep magnanimously quiet to let him have his day in the sun. What surprises me most is how he got the ludicrous 'Spartans' to dance to his tune. What a man.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534

    justin124 said:

    egg said:

    Still just proposals, still in negotiation and we can’t call it a deal as yet. It’s still to be thoroughly tested.

    Is the main change to the WA to be DUP compromises on border in Irish Sea in exchange for power In stormant to come out an arrangement it will never vote to do?

    Does the border in the Irish Sea cover enough goods to satisfy EU? And the fact the stormant veto makes it time influenced not permanent?

    Whatelse changes from May’s WA for Spartans to come onside and brexit party to be sidelined?

    Will remain Tories come on board now so close to things moving in their favour and UK remaining? Ditto for anyone set on clean break brexit now have to have MayBoris brexit when they so close to winning with no deal.

    Labour MPs may sound supportive this far out, but when it comes to ending their political career in the Labour Party by following Boris through the Lobby to deliver a Tory brexit, will there really be that many?

    We should view it not as a deal but questions questions yea more questions

    Why would Labour vote for Johnson's Deal rather than using Benn's Bill to block No Deal?
    Benn's Bill doesn't block No Deal, it just delays it. The only things that block No Deal are as they always have been agreeing a deal or agreeing revocation.
    +1

    Darn it, that's the second time today I have to agree with @Philip_Thompson!

    I much prefer it when we're arguing :smile:
    LOL!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,701

    HYUFD said:

    Warren is now the likely Democratic nominee not Biden which is good news for Trump.

    For example the latest Firehouse Michigan poll has Biden leading Trump 42% to 41% and Trump leading Warren 42% to 41%, while in Pennsylvania Biden leads Trump 45% to 41% but Warren only leads Trump 43% to 41% and in Wisconsin Biden leads Trump by 44% to 42% but Warren only leads Trump by 43% to 42%.

    http://firehousestrategies.com/exclusive-survey-democrats-lead-trump-in-key-swing-states/

    I spoke to some US citizens when I was in Gibralter last week. They were registed Democrats and thought Warren would be a difficult sell. They were very anti Trump and I suggested Biden was best placed to beat Trump, which they agreed. They lived and campaigned in Pennsylvania. A straw in the wind maybe....
    I was all for Biden a few months ago, as the only one who can beat Trump. Recent mistakes he has made are worrying, to say the least. Can he last the course?

    I remain deeply unconvinced that Warren is capable of beating Trump.

    Yep, the mood among Democrats I know when I was in the US last week was one of despondency. Trump has minority support, but he has it in all the right places.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,995
    If a deal was likely the £ should be trending up sharply, given how much it has fallen since the post-Benn peak. But I am not seeing much of it so far.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 8,619

    justin124 said:

    egg said:

    Still just proposals, still in negotiation and we can’t call it a deal as yet. It’s still to be thoroughly tested.

    Is the main change to the WA to be DUP compromises on border in Irish Sea in exchange for power In stormant to come out an arrangement it will never vote to do?

    Does the border in the Irish Sea cover enough goods to satisfy EU? And the fact the stormant veto makes it time influenced not permanent?

    Whatelse changes from May’s WA for Spartans to come onside and brexit party to be sidelined?

    Will remain Tories come on board now so close to things moving in their favour and UK remaining? Ditto for anyone set on clean break brexit now have to have MayBoris brexit when they so close to winning with no deal.

    Labour MPs may sound supportive this far out, but when it comes to ending their political career in the Labour Party by following Boris through the Lobby to deliver a Tory brexit, will there really be that many?

    We should view it not as a deal but questions questions yea more questions

    Why would Labour vote for Johnson's Deal rather than using Benn's Bill to block No Deal?
    Benn's Bill doesn't block No Deal, it just delays it. The only things that block No Deal are as they always have been agreeing a deal or agreeing revocation.
    But it blocks it for now and provides time for further negotiations.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,314

    Hugely significant intervention from Corbyn today and ex cathedra as well. His most significant since calling for the immeadiate invocation of A50 on the morning of 24/6/16.

    But Corbyn, like a surprising number of other people, is missing the very obvious point: any deal that Johnson brings to MPs will not look like the proposals he has submitted. They will look like what the EU wants. At that point the ERG will not vote for them. That's why this whole exercise is nothing more than a game. For that reason the tone to have adopted today is the one that the Tory rebels have - welcome the proposals, observe the small concessions, push on Northern Ireland and wish him luck. In other words, keep powder dry. I thought it was noticeable that in her intervention Swinson was actually far more measured than Corbyn.

    The real challenge for Johnson now is deciding when to walk away. He needs to get the timing just right. The more he says that progress is being made, the more emollient the EU is, the harder it will be for him to storm off and convince any but the most credulous that this is not what he had been planning all along.
    My take is the this is primarily about the blame game. Johnson has been pretty effective at putting the ball in the EU's court. But I doubt we're much nearer a deal.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,607
    IanB2 said:

    Warren remains the likely contender. Sanders never was going to make it second time lucky, and it is clear that the Reps are going to try and turn as much of the mud from the Ukraine issue in Biden’s direction; some of it will stick since his son had no qualifications for the job other than being the VPs son, so the situation doesn’t smell sweet.

    Trumps daughter has no obvious qualifications for her role other than nepotism. I think questions about this or that issue are factored into the level of support for Trump\Biden and campaigns over in the US are notorious for mud slinging!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,757
    What happens if by the summit it is looking promising that a deal can be done along the lines of Johnson's proposal but more EU/UK negotiation time - another 3 months or so - is required in order to get it finalized?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,701

    Boris has played a blinder. Yes, a few things will be shaved off his deal to make it indistinguishable from Theresa's, but we always knew this would happen. The EU will keep magnanimously quiet to let him have his day in the sun. What surprises me most is how he got the ludicrous 'Spartans' to dance to his tune. What a man.

    To be fair, if he does get what is essentially May's deal though it would be an extraordinary achievement. Obviously, as a reluctant supporter of it originally I would be very pleased if it happened. I just don't see how it does. For that reason, this all looks much more like a game to me. But it would be great to be wrong.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,314

    As a long and consistent proponent of legally-binding changes being made to the WDA for the past year, I must say I'm quite pleased with the past 24 hours. Curious whether all those who said that the WDA could never be changed are quite as confident of that now?

    Despite coming across as one I've never been a "Spartan" no dealer though I would have been a Spartan MP if I was one because I couldn't support the undemocratic backstop. It feels quite good to be able to back a deal now. Lets just hope there is a deal.

    I am yet to see how this is this different to Theresa proposing changes to the WDA.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,995

    IanB2 said:

    Warren remains the likely contender. Sanders never was going to make it second time lucky, and it is clear that the Reps are going to try and turn as much of the mud from the Ukraine issue in Biden’s direction; some of it will stick since his son had no qualifications for the job other than being the VPs son, so the situation doesn’t smell sweet.

    Indeed. It seems odd to me to be using this issue to go after Trump, when he will obviously tear down Biden at same time.
    The next piece in the jigsaw is that Trump feels he has the religious nuts in the bag so will try to find a way to replace Pence with a woman, hoping to shore up against the risk that he loses a lot of female voters toward Warren.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,701
    edited October 3
    kinabalu said:

    What happens if by the summit it is looking promising that a deal can be done along the lines of Johnson's proposal but more EU/UK negotiation time - another 3 months or so - is required in order to get it finalized?

    It's a very good question and another reason why this all looks like a sham to me. Would Johnson really walk away from what he has described as an excellent deal because it will take a little longer than he hoped for to secure?

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534
    kinabalu said:

    What happens if by the summit it is looking promising that a deal can be done along the lines of Johnson's proposal but more EU/UK negotiation time - another 3 months or so - is required in order to get it finalized?

    I don't think that will happen, its only the pressure of the deadline that allows compromises to happen.

    If a deal is done along the lines of Johnson's proposal but more time is required for ratification then I think Boris could reasonably declare Mission Accomplished and allow time for a short extension.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,701
    Jonathan said:

    Hugely significant intervention from Corbyn today and ex cathedra as well. His most significant since calling for the immeadiate invocation of A50 on the morning of 24/6/16.

    But Corbyn, like a surprising number of other people, is missing the very obvious point: any deal that Johnson brings to MPs will not look like the proposals he has submitted. They will look like what the EU wants. At that point the ERG will not vote for them. That's why this whole exercise is nothing more than a game. For that reason the tone to have adopted today is the one that the Tory rebels have - welcome the proposals, observe the small concessions, push on Northern Ireland and wish him luck. In other words, keep powder dry. I thought it was noticeable that in her intervention Swinson was actually far more measured than Corbyn.

    The real challenge for Johnson now is deciding when to walk away. He needs to get the timing just right. The more he says that progress is being made, the more emollient the EU is, the harder it will be for him to storm off and convince any but the most credulous that this is not what he had been planning all along.
    My take is the this is primarily about the blame game. Johnson has been pretty effective at putting the ball in the EU's court. But I doubt we're much nearer a deal.

    Yep. But having blamed the EU for No Deal we will still have No Deal. That, for me, is the biggest problem with the Cummings strategy.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,995

    IanB2 said:

    Warren remains the likely contender. Sanders never was going to make it second time lucky, and it is clear that the Reps are going to try and turn as much of the mud from the Ukraine issue in Biden’s direction; some of it will stick since his son had no qualifications for the job other than being the VPs son, so the situation doesn’t smell sweet.

    Trumps daughter has no obvious qualifications for her role other than nepotism. I think questions about this or that issue are factored into the level of support for Trump\Biden and campaigns over in the US are notorious for mud slinging!
    Nevertheless as impeachment progresses the will keep the story in the news in the MSM
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534
    Jonathan said:

    As a long and consistent proponent of legally-binding changes being made to the WDA for the past year, I must say I'm quite pleased with the past 24 hours. Curious whether all those who said that the WDA could never be changed are quite as confident of that now?

    Despite coming across as one I've never been a "Spartan" no dealer though I would have been a Spartan MP if I was one because I couldn't support the undemocratic backstop. It feels quite good to be able to back a deal now. Lets just hope there is a deal.

    I am yet to see how this is this different to Theresa proposing changes to the WDA.
    1: Johnson can carry the DUP and ERG, Theresa couldn't.
    2: This has dragged on long enough now.
    3: Johnson never agreed with May's deal, May did.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534

    Jonathan said:

    Hugely significant intervention from Corbyn today and ex cathedra as well. His most significant since calling for the immeadiate invocation of A50 on the morning of 24/6/16.

    But Corbyn, like a surprising number of other people, is missing the very obvious point: any deal that Johnson brings to MPs will not look like the proposals he has submitted. They will look like what the EU wants. At that point the ERG will not vote for them. That's why this whole exercise is nothing more than a game. For that reason the tone to have adopted today is the one that the Tory rebels have - welcome the proposals, observe the small concessions, push on Northern Ireland and wish him luck. In other words, keep powder dry. I thought it was noticeable that in her intervention Swinson was actually far more measured than Corbyn.

    The real challenge for Johnson now is deciding when to walk away. He needs to get the timing just right. The more he says that progress is being made, the more emollient the EU is, the harder it will be for him to storm off and convince any but the most credulous that this is not what he had been planning all along.
    My take is the this is primarily about the blame game. Johnson has been pretty effective at putting the ball in the EU's court. But I doubt we're much nearer a deal.

    Yep. But having blamed the EU for No Deal we will still have No Deal. That, for me, is the biggest problem with the Cummings strategy.

    You assume Cummings wants No Deal. I think Cummings and Boris genuinely want a deal on these lines.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894
    With Warren looking likely but too short (Hold, sell if you like) Sanders out the game (Hold) and Biden treading water but still very much a potential winner (He is plenty of Sanders voters second choice and the withdrawal of Sanders removes a contender for both him and Warren) (Hold) it's a good time to look at the more minor but still realistic contenders

    Boot EDGE EDGE is polling around 10 in Iowa and looks cheap enough at 18.5 to add stocks of.

    Hillary Clinton is the clear sell of the year at 20.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,701

    Jonathan said:

    Hugely significant intervention from Corbyn today and ex cathedra as well. His most significant since calling for the immeadiate invocation of A50 on the morning of 24/6/16.

    But Corbyn, like a surprising number of other people, is missing the very obvious point: any deal that Johnson brings to MPs will not look like the proposals he has submitted. They will look like what the EU wants. At that point the ERG will not vote for them. That's why this whole exercise is nothing more than a game. For that reason the tone to have adopted today is the one that the Tory rebels have - welcome the proposals, observe the small concessions, push on Northern Ireland and wish him luck. In other words, keep powder dry. I thought it was noticeable that in her intervention Swinson was actually far more measured than Corbyn.

    The real challenge for Johnson now is deciding when to walk away. He needs to get the timing just right. The more he says that progress is being made, the more emollient the EU is, the harder it will be for him to storm off and convince any but the most credulous that this is not what he had been planning all along.
    My take is the this is primarily about the blame game. Johnson has been pretty effective at putting the ball in the EU's court. But I doubt we're much nearer a deal.

    Yep. But having blamed the EU for No Deal we will still have No Deal. That, for me, is the biggest problem with the Cummings strategy.

    You assume Cummings wants No Deal. I think Cummings and Boris genuinely want a deal on these lines.

    I am sure they do. I also think they know they won't get one.

  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,401

    Jonathan said:

    As a long and consistent proponent of legally-binding changes being made to the WDA for the past year, I must say I'm quite pleased with the past 24 hours. Curious whether all those who said that the WDA could never be changed are quite as confident of that now?

    Despite coming across as one I've never been a "Spartan" no dealer though I would have been a Spartan MP if I was one because I couldn't support the undemocratic backstop. It feels quite good to be able to back a deal now. Lets just hope there is a deal.

    I am yet to see how this is this different to Theresa proposing changes to the WDA.
    1: Johnson can carry the DUP and ERG, Theresa couldn't.
    2: This has dragged on long enough now.
    3: Johnson never agreed with May's deal, May did.
    Johnson voted FOR may's deal.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,056
    Pulpstar said:

    With Warren looking likely but too short (Hold, sell if you like) Sanders out the game (Hold) and Biden treading water but still very much a potential winner (He is plenty of Sanders voters second choice and the withdrawal of Sanders removes a contender for both him and Warren) (Hold) it's a good time to look at the more minor but still realistic contenders

    Boot EDGE EDGE is polling around 10 in Iowa and looks cheap enough at 18.5 to add stocks of.

    Hillary Clinton is the clear sell of the year at 20.

    I have been significantly green on young mayor Pete for a long time. Perhaps we are in for a surprise.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,555

    As a long and consistent proponent of legally-binding changes being made to the WDA for the past year, I must say I'm quite pleased with the past 24 hours. Curious whether all those who said that the WDA could never be changed are quite as confident of that now?

    Despite coming across as one I've never been a "Spartan" no dealer though I would have been a Spartan MP if I was one because I couldn't support the undemocratic backstop. It feels quite good to be able to back a deal now. Lets just hope there is a deal.

    I think you might be proved right on the WDA. But the problem anticipated was the EU agreeing to changes and they haven't yet.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,035
    MattW said:

    Loving the latest from the Extinction Rebellion pillocks:

    How do you manage to miss a target as big as the Treasury Building when you are spraying an entire Fire Engine full of fake blood?



    At least this time they weren't preventing ambulances getting to emergencies or causing cancer patients to miss their treatment.

    That's planned for next week. Really.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,314
    edited October 3

    Jonathan said:

    As a long and consistent proponent of legally-binding changes being made to the WDA for the past year, I must say I'm quite pleased with the past 24 hours. Curious whether all those who said that the WDA could never be changed are quite as confident of that now?

    Despite coming across as one I've never been a "Spartan" no dealer though I would have been a Spartan MP if I was one because I couldn't support the undemocratic backstop. It feels quite good to be able to back a deal now. Lets just hope there is a deal.

    I am yet to see how this is this different to Theresa proposing changes to the WDA.
    1: Johnson can carry the DUP and ERG, Theresa couldn't.
    2: This has dragged on long enough now.
    3: Johnson never agreed with May's deal, May did.
    But May was trying to pass an agreement. This is not an agreement. This is a proposal from one side. Carrying one side is easy.

    She similarly proposed changes to the WDA. She went to the EU, but didn't get them. There is nothing to suggest Boris will have any more luck.

    Feels like a game of bluff and blame.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 1,121

    Jonathan said:

    As a long and consistent proponent of legally-binding changes being made to the WDA for the past year, I must say I'm quite pleased with the past 24 hours. Curious whether all those who said that the WDA could never be changed are quite as confident of that now?

    Despite coming across as one I've never been a "Spartan" no dealer though I would have been a Spartan MP if I was one because I couldn't support the undemocratic backstop. It feels quite good to be able to back a deal now. Lets just hope there is a deal.

    I am yet to see how this is this different to Theresa proposing changes to the WDA.
    1: Johnson can carry the DUP and ERG, Theresa couldn't.
    2: This has dragged on long enough now.
    3: Johnson never agreed with May's deal, May did.
    Johnson voted FOR may's deal.
    Eventually. But he expressly said when he did so, at the third time of asking, that he did so reluctantly. He never agreed with it.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,757

    It's a very good question and another reason why this all looks like a sham to me. Would Johnson really walk away from what he has described as an excellent deal because it will take a little longer than he hoped for to secure?

    It would be the Jeremy Hunt position from the leadership contest, ironically. I used to think Johnson's real plan was a deal but I changed my mind and I am not ready atm to change it back. So, yes, I think it's about positioning for the election.

    IMO the deal that could get done is as follows -

    1. WA with backstop changed to NI only and with a 5 to 7 year time limit.
    2. PD rewritten to target a Canada style FTA. No SM. No CU.

    If I see moves in this direction I will start to believe that he is going for a deal - but not before.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,314
    DougSeal said:

    Jonathan said:

    As a long and consistent proponent of legally-binding changes being made to the WDA for the past year, I must say I'm quite pleased with the past 24 hours. Curious whether all those who said that the WDA could never be changed are quite as confident of that now?

    Despite coming across as one I've never been a "Spartan" no dealer though I would have been a Spartan MP if I was one because I couldn't support the undemocratic backstop. It feels quite good to be able to back a deal now. Lets just hope there is a deal.

    I am yet to see how this is this different to Theresa proposing changes to the WDA.
    1: Johnson can carry the DUP and ERG, Theresa couldn't.
    2: This has dragged on long enough now.
    3: Johnson never agreed with May's deal, May did.
    Johnson voted FOR may's deal.
    Eventually. But he expressly said when he did so, at the third time of asking, that he did so reluctantly. He never agreed with it.

    It had the major disadvantage for Boris of not helping him achieve his ambition to become Prime Minister.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,935
    Omg that’s so funny . The Warren story. So the GOP will pronounce their moral shock at her bedding a bodybuilder.

  • A privet equity fund? aka as a hedge fund? :)
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,456
    If this deal does go through parliament and the EU, it's a real triumph for the ERG.
    They gambled losing Brexit, won, and to boot managed to get their man installed in Number 10.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,035

    A privet equity fund? aka as a hedge fund? :)
    Yew must be joking!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,048
    Jonathan said:

    DougSeal said:

    Jonathan said:

    As a long and consistent proponent of legally-binding changes being made to the WDA for the past year, I must say I'm quite pleased with the past 24 hours. Curious whether all those who said that the WDA could never be changed are quite as confident of that now?

    Despite coming across as one I've never been a "Spartan" no dealer though I would have been a Spartan MP if I was one because I couldn't support the undemocratic backstop. It feels quite good to be able to back a deal now. Lets just hope there is a deal.

    I am yet to see how this is this different to Theresa proposing changes to the WDA.
    1: Johnson can carry the DUP and ERG, Theresa couldn't.
    2: This has dragged on long enough now.
    3: Johnson never agreed with May's deal, May did.
    Johnson voted FOR may's deal.
    Eventually. But he expressly said when he did so, at the third time of asking, that he did so reluctantly. He never agreed with it.

    It had the major disadvantage for Boris of not helping him achieve his ambition to become Prime Minister.
    I expect, like many leavers (tho there is a question as to whether that epithet genuinely applies to him), he would struggle to articulate why he was against Theresa's deal
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 1,121

    Jonathan said:

    Hugely significant intervention from Corbyn today and ex cathedra as well. His most significant since calling for the immeadiate invocation of A50 on the morning of 24/6/16.

    But Corbyn, like a surprising number of other people, is missing the very obvious point: any deal that Johnson brings to MPs will not look like the proposals he has submitted. They will look like what the EU wants. At that point the ERG will not vote for them. That's why this whole exercise is nothing more than a game. For that reason the tone to have adopted today is the one that the Tory rebels have - welcome the proposals, observe the small concessions, push on Northern Ireland and wish him luck. In other words, keep powder dry. I thought it was noticeable that in her intervention Swinson was actually far more measured than Corbyn.

    The real challenge for Johnson now is deciding when to walk away. He needs to get the timing just right. The more he says that progress is being made, the more emollient the EU is, the harder it will be for him to storm off and convince any but the most credulous that this is not what he had been planning all along.
    My take is the this is primarily about the blame game. Johnson has been pretty effective at putting the ball in the EU's court. But I doubt we're much nearer a deal.

    Yep. But having blamed the EU for No Deal we will still have No Deal. That, for me, is the biggest problem with the Cummings strategy.

    You assume Cummings wants No Deal. I think Cummings and Boris genuinely want a deal on these lines.
    No. I think they know this isn’t a flier. You suggested on the last thread that the EU would bung the Irish a bit of cash and all would be well and they would accept. Again, this is not just about economics. The customs/border checks issue means as much over there as “sovereignty” does to you - day to day you might not notice changes in either but they rankle all the same. Just as couldn’t be bought to accept Remaining, it’s principle to you, it is doubtful they can be bought to accept customs checks for the very same reason.

    All this posturing is just talking to ourselves again. I may be wrong but Ireland rejected Lisbon (largely over the principle of neutrality) despite the level of subsidy they then had and I have little doubt they will equally reject this on principle. Money is secondary.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,401
    One sentence in Johnson's speech I haven't read much since is what he said about huge investments to be made in N Ireland.
    So how much money has been offered to the DUP ? They don't vote with you if they are not paid.
  • I think @Jonathan and @SouthamObserver are fundamentally right about this. We've been through this cycle so many times I honestly don't see the point in debating it until we have a draft treaty text as opposed to Boris' letter to Santa or more likely Boris walks out rather than tell the kids Santa doesn't exist. In the meantime the usual suspects are welcome to their echo chamber. Tick Tock.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,401

    A privet equity fund? aka as a hedge fund? :)
    Biden is gone. Not a bad thing.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,314

    Jonathan said:

    DougSeal said:

    Jonathan said:

    As a long and consistent proponent of legally-binding changes being made to the WDA for the past year, I must say I'm quite pleased with the past 24 hours. Curious whether all those who said that the WDA could never be changed are quite as confident of that now?

    Despite coming across as one I've never been a "Spartan" no dealer though I would have been a Spartan MP if I was one because I couldn't support the undemocratic backstop. It feels quite good to be able to back a deal now. Lets just hope there is a deal.

    I am yet to see how this is this different to Theresa proposing changes to the WDA.
    1: Johnson can carry the DUP and ERG, Theresa couldn't.
    2: This has dragged on long enough now.
    3: Johnson never agreed with May's deal, May did.
    Johnson voted FOR may's deal.
    Eventually. But he expressly said when he did so, at the third time of asking, that he did so reluctantly. He never agreed with it.

    It had the major disadvantage for Boris of not helping him achieve his ambition to become Prime Minister.
    I expect, like many leavers (tho there is a question as to whether that epithet genuinely applies to him), he would struggle to articulate why he was against Theresa's deal
    Boris having achieved his ambition is the key substantial change between now and March. It remains to be seen if that is the decisive change.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,958

    IanB2 said:

    Warren remains the likely contender. Sanders never was going to make it second time lucky, and it is clear that the Reps are going to try and turn as much of the mud from the Ukraine issue in Biden’s direction; some of it will stick since his son had no qualifications for the job other than being the VPs son, so the situation doesn’t smell sweet.

    Indeed. It seems odd to me to be using this issue to go after Trump, when he will obviously tear down Biden at same time.
    I'm sure Biden has enemies in the Democratic Party. They could be trying to kill two birds with one stone.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,401
    nico67 said:

    Omg that’s so funny . The Warren story. So the GOP will pronounce their moral shock at her bedding a bodybuilder.

    A 60 year old bedding a 20 year old. That is impressive !
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894

    Pulpstar said:

    With Warren looking likely but too short (Hold, sell if you like) Sanders out the game (Hold) and Biden treading water but still very much a potential winner (He is plenty of Sanders voters second choice and the withdrawal of Sanders removes a contender for both him and Warren) (Hold) it's a good time to look at the more minor but still realistic contenders

    Boot EDGE EDGE is polling around 10 in Iowa and looks cheap enough at 18.5 to add stocks of.

    Hillary Clinton is the clear sell of the year at 20.

    I have been significantly green on young mayor Pete for a long time. Perhaps we are in for a surprise.
    Iowa should be a great state for him, his stock might peak if he does well there.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534
    kinabalu said:

    It's a very good question and another reason why this all looks like a sham to me. Would Johnson really walk away from what he has described as an excellent deal because it will take a little longer than he hoped for to secure?

    It would be the Jeremy Hunt position from the leadership contest, ironically. I used to think Johnson's real plan was a deal but I changed my mind and I am not ready atm to change it back. So, yes, I think it's about positioning for the election.

    IMO the deal that could get done is as follows -

    1. WA with backstop changed to NI only and with a 5 to 7 year time limit.
    2. PD rewritten to target a Canada style FTA. No SM. No CU.

    If I see moves in this direction I will start to believe that he is going for a deal - but not before.
    A WA with a NI-only backstop that lasts 4 years but is renewable every 4 years [and will almost certainly be renewed] is probably better for them than a 5 years then it expires one.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,501

    A privet equity fund? aka as a hedge fund? :)
    Biden is gone. Not a bad thing.
    Do you really think he's out of the race?
  • It does look like Trump had genuine dirt on Biden and could have just taken out his strongest polling opponent. But he handled it so appallingly he created his version of the Nixon tapes as well.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,081
    “I’m very worried about Bernie. I know how debilitating a heart attack can be. I’m glad that he’s in a good hospital and will have the time to rest and recover from the rigours of the campaign”
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,250
    edited October 3
    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Loving the latest from the Extinction Rebellion pillocks:

    How do you manage to miss a target as big as the Treasury Building when you are spraying an entire Fire Engine full of fake blood?



    At least this time they weren't preventing ambulances getting to emergencies or causing cancer patients to miss their treatment.



    That's planned for next week. Really.
    Is this a new variant of 'having blood on your hands'?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,638
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Warren remains the likely contender. Sanders never was going to make it second time lucky, and it is clear that the Reps are going to try and turn as much of the mud from the Ukraine issue in Biden’s direction; some of it will stick since his son had no qualifications for the job other than being the VPs son, so the situation doesn’t smell sweet.

    Indeed. It seems odd to me to be using this issue to go after Trump, when he will obviously tear down Biden at same time.
    The next piece in the jigsaw is that Trump feels he has the religious nuts in the bag so will try to find a way to replace Pence with a woman, hoping to shore up against the risk that he loses a lot of female voters toward Warren.
    Step forward Condoleezza Rice. Ticks two boxes.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,035

    A privet equity fund? aka as a hedge fund? :)
    Biden is gone. Not a bad thing.
    Certainly not for my book!

    I look forward to Warren Trump debates. She knows how to wind him up, and his fuse is shorter now.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,607

    One sentence in Johnson's speech I haven't read much since is what he said about huge investments to be made in N Ireland.
    So how much money has been offered to the DUP ? They don't vote with you if they are not paid.

    I hope Johnson is not going to build that bridge. It seems lika a huge waste of cash with big questions about usability for months on end in Autumn, Winter and Spring...
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,401
    DougSeal said:

    Jonathan said:

    As a long and consistent proponent of legally-binding changes being made to the WDA for the past year, I must say I'm quite pleased with the past 24 hours. Curious whether all those who said that the WDA could never be changed are quite as confident of that now?

    Despite coming across as one I've never been a "Spartan" no dealer though I would have been a Spartan MP if I was one because I couldn't support the undemocratic backstop. It feels quite good to be able to back a deal now. Lets just hope there is a deal.

    I am yet to see how this is this different to Theresa proposing changes to the WDA.
    1: Johnson can carry the DUP and ERG, Theresa couldn't.
    2: This has dragged on long enough now.
    3: Johnson never agreed with May's deal, May did.
    Johnson voted FOR may's deal.
    Eventually. But he expressly said when he did so, at the third time of asking, that he did so reluctantly. He never agreed with it.

    He VOTED FOR it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,757

    I don't think that will happen, its only the pressure of the deadline that allows compromises to happen.

    If a deal is done along the lines of Johnson's proposal but more time is required for ratification then I think Boris could reasonably declare Mission Accomplished and allow time for a short extension.

    I can certainly see the situation happening. I think it's probable. The EU will not pull the plug. They will say "Yes, interesting. Plenty still to resolve but let's keep talking."

    In which case Johnson will have a decision to make.

    My view is that he will call it off, pronounce the EU as not serious and resume agitation for an election. He will refuse to extend and the Benn Act will be enforced over his head by the courts. He will not resign. There will be no VONC.

    So, November, we are still in the EU and are also up to our necks in a constitutional crisis.

    And the whole thing will slide into 2020.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,056
    Foxy said:

    A privet equity fund? aka as a hedge fund? :)
    Biden is gone. Not a bad thing.
    Certainly not for my book!

    I look forward to Warren Trump debates. She knows how to wind him up, and his fuse is shorter now.
    At least during the actual TV debate he is in a studio and away from the nuclear football codes.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,935

    nico67 said:

    Omg that’s so funny . The Warren story. So the GOP will pronounce their moral shock at her bedding a bodybuilder.

    A 60 year old bedding a 20 year old. That is impressive !
    Good luck to her! I look forward to Trumps outrage given he’s the paragon of virtue !
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 1,121

    DougSeal said:

    Jonathan said:

    As a long and consistent proponent of legally-binding changes being made to the WDA for the past year, I must say I'm quite pleased with the past 24 hours. Curious whether all those who said that the WDA could never be changed are quite as confident of that now?

    Despite coming across as one I've never been a "Spartan" no dealer though I would have been a Spartan MP if I was one because I couldn't support the undemocratic backstop. It feels quite good to be able to back a deal now. Lets just hope there is a deal.

    I am yet to see how this is this different to Theresa proposing changes to the WDA.
    1: Johnson can carry the DUP and ERG, Theresa couldn't.
    2: This has dragged on long enough now.
    3: Johnson never agreed with May's deal, May did.
    Johnson voted FOR may's deal.
    Eventually. But he expressly said when he did so, at the third time of asking, that he did so reluctantly. He never agreed with it.

    He VOTED FOR it.
    Not the same thing as agreeing with it. I don’t agree with the EU in its current form but I voted to remain because, as we are seeing, the alternative presented was worse.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418
    egg said:

    Still just proposals, still in negotiation and we can’t call it a deal as yet. It’s still to be thoroughly tested.

    Is the main change to the WA to be DUP compromises on border in Irish Sea in exchange for power In stormant to come out an arrangement it will never vote to do?

    Does the border in the Irish Sea cover enough goods to satisfy EU? And the fact the stormant veto makes it time influenced not permanent?

    Whatelse changes from May’s WA for Spartans to come onside and brexit party to be sidelined?

    Will remain Tories come on board now so close to things moving in their favour and UK remaining? Ditto for anyone set on clean break brexit now have to have MayBoris brexit when they so close to winning with no deal.

    Labour MPs may sound supportive this far out, but when it comes to ending their political career in the Labour Party by following Boris through the Lobby to deliver a Tory brexit, will there really be that many?

    We should view it not as a deal but questions questions yea more questions

    If Boris gets a deal, the smart thing for Corbyn is to whip an abstention.

    Keeps his Party together. Gives him a line to use in the election.

    "This is a Tory Brexit. Everything that goes wrong in our country after we have left the EU lies at the door of the Tories. Every lost job, every lost opportunity, every dashed dream - blame the Tories..."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894
    Biden with sleaze, Sanders with health issues and Warren with an affair !

    All happening for the big three.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,081

    IanB2 said:

    Warren remains the likely contender. Sanders never was going to make it second time lucky, and it is clear that the Reps are going to try and turn as much of the mud from the Ukraine issue in Biden’s direction; some of it will stick since his son had no qualifications for the job other than being the VPs son, so the situation doesn’t smell sweet.

    Indeed. It seems odd to me to be using this issue to go after Trump, when he will obviously tear down Biden at same time.
    Nancy Pelosi wanting a white middle class elderly woman in the White House?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418

    A privet equity fund? aka as a hedge fund? :)
    Ticks the box....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,035
    Pulpstar said:

    Biden with sleaze, Sanders with health issues and Warren with an affair !

    All happening for the big three.

    If you believe the Warren affair story!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,958
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Jonathan said:

    As a long and consistent proponent of legally-binding changes being made to the WDA for the past year, I must say I'm quite pleased with the past 24 hours. Curious whether all those who said that the WDA could never be changed are quite as confident of that now?

    Despite coming across as one I've never been a "Spartan" no dealer though I would have been a Spartan MP if I was one because I couldn't support the undemocratic backstop. It feels quite good to be able to back a deal now. Lets just hope there is a deal.

    I am yet to see how this is this different to Theresa proposing changes to the WDA.
    1: Johnson can carry the DUP and ERG, Theresa couldn't.
    2: This has dragged on long enough now.
    3: Johnson never agreed with May's deal, May did.
    Johnson voted FOR may's deal.
    Eventually. But he expressly said when he did so, at the third time of asking, that he did so reluctantly. He never agreed with it.

    He VOTED FOR it.
    Not the same thing as agreeing with it. I don’t agree with the EU in its current form but I voted to remain because, as we are seeing, the alternative presented was worse.
    I voted Remain despite strongly disagreeing with Cameron's aspiration to make permanent our semi-detached status in the EU.
This discussion has been closed.