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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov polling finds firm backing for final Brexit decisio

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited October 3 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov polling finds firm backing for final Brexit decisions to be made by a referendum

In the panel above from new YouGov polling published this afternoon there is clear support for a final referendum on a deal or if nothing can be agreed a no deal.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • PendduPenddu Posts: 260
    Yes
  • eekeek Posts: 5,791
    edited October 3
    first like Boris
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 260
    I mean No..
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 260
    What was the question again?
  • isamisam Posts: 28,277
    As if the only options are parliament voting or another referendum!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,958
    isam said:

    As if the only options are parliament voting or another referendum!

    What other option do you see?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,607
    Revoke A50! :smiley:
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 1,137
    eek said:

    first like Boris

    Unintentionally accurate post.
  • isamisam Posts: 28,277

    isam said:

    As if the only options are parliament voting or another referendum!

    What other option do you see?
    None! That's the problem with the polling :D
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,006
    We can't trust the polling on whether people want a referendum. Don't forget that we had a referendum on whether the UK should remain a part of the EU and that gave a different answer to what the polling said.

    The solution, therefore, is to have a referendum on whether we should have a referendum. So we'll only have a referendum on the deal if the people speak through a referendum demanding a referendum.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 823
    This is flawed analysis. What we see is the same story of half the country being Remainers and wanting a fresh referendum to cancel Brexit, and the other half not supportive. That can't be directly translated to a General Election result, where there are four major parties.

    In the GE, there will be a split on the Remain side (Lab vs LD) and a split on the Leave side (Con vs Brx). Each side will be half the country but the exact splits matter. Labour's vile leadership means they have a limited ceiling, but if the Lib Dems make a true breakthrough that could change things to unify that side. Equally if Leavers are stupid enough to follow Farage, that could split Leave and stop Brexit (for now).
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,468
    rcs1000 said:

    We can't trust the polling on whether people want a referendum. Don't forget that we had a referendum on whether the UK should remain a part of the EU and that gave a different answer to what the polling said.

    The solution, therefore, is to have a referendum on whether we should have a referendum. So we'll only have a referendum on the deal if the people speak through a referendum demanding a referendum.

    What is the difference between a recursion and a regression?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418
    If the EU thinks it has a deal, why on earth would it want us to take the risk of it all being thrown up in the air again by those ornery Brits?

    Makes no sense for them to want this.

    Of course, no further extensions by the EU forces the MPs to do their job - and decide.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    So less than half, only 40% believe another referendum is better than a general election. That is driven by Labour and LD voters 65% and 76% respectively who prefer another referendum while 62% of Tory voters prefer a general elections as do 76% of Brexit Party voters.

    Tory voters by 46% to 27% also believe MPs should have the final say on any new Deal.

    Support for another referendum only gets over 50% in the event of No Deal and then only narrowly to 52%
  • johntjohnt Posts: 7
    The problem for the Tories is that another referendum will finally rip the party apart. Personally I don’t have a problem with that but Johnson will do anything to avoid that. His desired outcome will be Brexit and then an election where he will hope the undemocratic electoral system will give him a working majority on 35% of the vote. That of course will rip the country apart.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,501
    The Flavible website seems to be in the process of being updated. Usually you can go there to get a seats forecast based on user inputs.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,958
    isam said:

    isam said:

    As if the only options are parliament voting or another referendum!

    What other option do you see?
    None! That's the problem with the polling :D
    I mean who else could conceivably decide?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 1,137
    HYUFD said:

    So less than half, only 40% believe another referendum is better than a general election. That is driven by Labour and LD voters 65% and 76% respectively who prefer another referendum while 62% of Tory voters prefer a general elections as do 76% of Brexit Party voters.

    Tory voters by 46% to 27% also believe MPs should have the final say on any new Deal.

    Support for another referendum only gets over 50% in the event of No Deal and then only narrowly to 52%

    Only 52% support you say... I'm sure there are some people who consider 52% to be a clear victory in another context.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 2,093
    Those questions are designed for the result they produce.

    Linking to Boris Johnson
    Linking to MPs vs public

    It is heavily loaded.
  • isamisam Posts: 28,277
    edited October 3

    isam said:

    isam said:

    As if the only options are parliament voting or another referendum!

    What other option do you see?
    None! That's the problem with the polling :D
    I mean who else could conceivably decide?
    I know, just kidding

    The PM of course, as it should have been since the moment we voted to leave. They agree a deal with the EU, that's it.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,481
    It's an interesting point. By dismissing MPs as useless, the government removes is own agency because the executive enables legislation through parliament.

    It's noteworthy that Conservatives and Leavers who are most anti parliament are also the ones who think (without apparent enthusiasms it must be said) that parliament should make the decision.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,701
    edited October 3
    HYUFD said:
    My guess is that there would be a hell of a lot of abstentions should such a vote be held. I cannot see many Labour MPs backing it in theory.

  • NooNoo Posts: 1,661
    Is Arlene Foster morphing into Paul Merton?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    edited October 3
    johnt said:

    The problem for the Tories is that another referendum will finally rip the party apart. Personally I don’t have a problem with that but Johnson will do anything to avoid that. His desired outcome will be Brexit and then an election where he will hope the undemocratic electoral system will give him a working majority on 35% of the vote. That of course will rip the country apart.

    It wouldn't actually as most Tories are now firmly behind Leave, certainly in the country, as is the Tory Leader (I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016 but would now vote Leave and respect the first vote), while LDs and the SNP are firmly behind Remain.

    If another referendum ripped any party apart it would be Corbyn Labour, where the recent Labour conference saw the party vote by the narrowest of margins not to commit to campaign for Remain against the wishes of most Labour members and where most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats voted Leave.

    I don't want another referendum but it could be win win for the Tories provided Boris campaigned for Leave, if Remain wins narrowly Boris can be Alex Salmond 2 and win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP thanks to furious Leavers wanting revenge as the SNP did in 2015 after the narrow No vote in 2014.

    If Leave wins again Boris would be triumphant as would the Tories with the Remainer parties shattered
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 641

    Those questions are designed for the result they produce.

    Linking to Boris Johnson
    Linking to MPs vs public

    It is heavily loaded.

    But that is what the PM is going to be going under at the GE and the oppo parties are going to remind people. it's realistic.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,733

    Revoke A50! :smiley:

    M64!
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 1,137
    HYUFD said:
    It won't make it much harder for the EU to reject it. But it will make it much easier for Johnson to blame the EU for the failure of negotiations with the domestic audience he cares about.
    Do you really think that the Irish are going to think, "this plan crosses every one of our red lines but, you know what, Gareth Snell voted for it so it's a yes from us"?
  • NooNoo Posts: 1,661

    Revoke A50! :smiley:

    M64!
    P45 for Boris!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,501
    johnt said:

    The problem for the Tories is that another referendum will finally rip the party apart. Personally I don’t have a problem with that but Johnson will do anything to avoid that. His desired outcome will be Brexit and then an election where he will hope the undemocratic electoral system will give him a working majority on 35% of the vote. That of course will rip the country apart.

    Have you forgotten about Blair winning a 66 seat majority in 2005 with 35%?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 20,384
    HYUFD said:

    johnt said:

    The problem for the Tories is that another referendum will finally rip the party apart. Personally I don’t have a problem with that but Johnson will do anything to avoid that. His desired outcome will be Brexit and then an election where he will hope the undemocratic electoral system will give him a working majority on 35% of the vote. That of course will rip the country apart.

    It wouldn't actually as most Tories are now firmly behind Leave, certainly in the country, as is the Tory Leader (I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016 but would now vote Leave and respect the first vote), while LDs and the SNP are firmly behind Remain.

    If another referendum ripped any party apart it would be Corbyn Labour, where the recent Labour conference saw the party vote by the narrowest of margins not to commit to campaign for Remain against the wishes of most Labour members and where most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats voted Leave.

    I don't want another referendum but it could be win win for the Tories provided Boris campaigned for Leave, if Remain wins narrowly Boris can be Alex Salmond 2 and win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP thanks to furious Leavers wanting revenge as the SNP did in 2015 after the narrow No vote in 2014.

    If Leave wins again Boris would be triumphant as would the Tories with the Remainer parties shattered
    Would you vote for Labour from then on if they won the next general election?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,607
    Noo said:

    Revoke A50! :smiley:

    M64!
    P45 for Boris!
    +1 BJ needs the Boot! :smiley: He is sleazy and incompetent! The bar seems to be set incredibly low for him.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,003
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    As if the only options are parliament voting or another referendum!

    What other option do you see?
    None! That's the problem with the polling :D
    I mean who else could conceivably decide?
    I know, just kidding

    The PM of course, as it should have been since the moment we voted to leave. They agree a deal with the EU, that's it.
    But this gets to one of the things I don't understand about Brexit supporters. One of the main consequences of Brexit is going to be British MPs having more power to make decisions over areas where they're currently fairly powerless.

    You think MPs have made a mess of the Brexit process....fair enough, a lot of people would agree with that. But what makes you think they'll be any more competent and/or able to find consensus when they have to put together the post-Brexit immigration system? Or when they're negotiating trade deals with the USA or Commonwealth countries or wherever?
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 641

    Revoke A50! :smiley:

    M64!
    Very Clever, I like that.
  • johntjohnt Posts: 7
    HYUFD said:

    johnt said:

    The problem for the Tories is that another referendum will finally rip the party apart. Personally I don’t have a problem with that but Johnson will do anything to avoid that. His desired outcome will be Brexit and then an election where he will hope the undemocratic electoral system will give him a working majority on 35% of the vote. That of course will rip the country apart.

    It wouldn't actually as most Tories are now firmly behind Leave, certainly in the country, as is the Tory Leader (I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016 but would now vote Leave and respect the first vote), while LDs and the SNP are firmly behind Remain.

    If another referendum ripped any party apart it would be Corbyn Labour, where the recent Labour conference saw the party vote by the narrowest of margins not to commit to campaign for Remain against the wishes of most Labour members and where most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats voted Leave.

    I don't want another referendum but it could be win win for the Tories provided Boris campaigned for Leave, if Remain wins narrowly Boris can be Alex Salmond 2 and win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP thanks to furious Leavers wanting revenge as the SNP did in 2015 after the narrow No vote in 2014.

    If Leave wins again Boris would be triumphant as would the Tories with the Remainer parties shattered
    Funny that you think if Leave lost then Boris would be triumphant and the remain parties would be shattered but if remain wins Boris would be triumphant and swept into power. It’s almost as if you start with the answer you want and then try to fit a reason to try and justify it.

    Of course the mystery is that if a referendum on the final deal would be so great for the Tories it’s strange they don’t want to have one. Ummmm
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418
    rcs1000 said:

    We can't trust the polling on whether people want a referendum. Don't forget that we had a referendum on whether the UK should remain a part of the EU and that gave a different answer to what the polling said.

    The solution, therefore, is to have a referendum on whether we should have a referendum. So we'll only have a referendum on the deal if the people speak through a referendum demanding a referendum.

    We need a pre-referendum to decide the question that will be asked in the referendum, to decide whether we then want a referendum on that question....and then having the referendum on that question if we so decide.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 2,093

    rcs1000 said:

    We can't trust the polling on whether people want a referendum. Don't forget that we had a referendum on whether the UK should remain a part of the EU and that gave a different answer to what the polling said.

    The solution, therefore, is to have a referendum on whether we should have a referendum. So we'll only have a referendum on the deal if the people speak through a referendum demanding a referendum.

    We need a pre-referendum to decide the question that will be asked in the referendum, to decide whether we then want a referendum on that question....and then having the referendum on that question if we so decide.
    The PMs chief of staff and Farage are both occassional fans of a 2nd ref.....they dont normally agree on much.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,570

    HYUFD said:
    My guess is that there would be a hell of a lot of abstentions should such a vote be held. I cannot see many Labour MPs backing it in theory.

    It would make very little sense to vote either way if negotiations with the EU were still going on. What earthly point would there be in a vote, other than as sheer propaganda?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534

    isam said:

    isam said:

    As if the only options are parliament voting or another referendum!

    What other option do you see?
    None! That's the problem with the polling :D
    I mean who else could conceivably decide?
    MPs could ratify the deal if the deal or implement no deal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    johnt said:

    The problem for the Tories is that another referendum will finally rip the party apart. Personally I don’t have a problem with that but Johnson will do anything to avoid that. His desired outcome will be Brexit and then an election where he will hope the undemocratic electoral system will give him a working majority on 35% of the vote. That of course will rip the country apart.

    It wouldn't actually as most Tories are now firmly behind Leave, certainly in the country, as is the Tory Leader (I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016 but would now vote Leave and respect the first vote), while LDs and the SNP are firmly behind Remain.

    If another referendum ripped any party apart it would be Corbyn Labour, where the recent Labour conference saw the party vote by the narrowest of margins not to commit to campaign for Remain against the wishes of most Labour members and where most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats voted Leave.

    I don't want another referendum but it could be win win for the Tories provided Boris campaigned for Leave, if Remain wins narrowly Boris can be Alex Salmond 2 and win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP thanks to furious Leavers wanting revenge as the SNP did in 2015 after the narrow No vote in 2014.

    If Leave wins again Boris would be triumphant as would the Tories with the Remainer parties shattered
    Would you vote for Labour from then on if they won the next general election?
    Only if they won a general election with a majority and were then prevented from forming a government as that would be disrespecting democracy
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,701

    HYUFD said:
    It won't make it much harder for the EU to reject it. But it will make it much easier for Johnson to blame the EU for the failure of negotiations with the domestic audience he cares about.
    Do you really think that the Irish are going to think, "this plan crosses every one of our red lines but, you know what, Gareth Snell voted for it so it's a yes from us"?

    Labour MPs might consider voting for a final agreement. They would not vote for Johnson's proposals. It would make absolutely no sense to do that.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:
    My guess is that there would be a hell of a lot of abstentions should such a vote be held. I cannot see many Labour MPs backing it in theory.

    It would make very little sense to vote either way if negotiations with the EU were still going on. What earthly point would there be in a vote, other than as sheer propaganda?
    To demonstrate to the EU that if they compromise then the deal can get through Parliament. And subtly put pressure on the EU to compromise.

    There's been mutterings that the EU didn't see any point compromising as they didn't think a deal would get through Parliament even if they did. If they see a deal can be ratified that ups the ante.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 2,093
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    johnt said:

    The problem for the Tories is that another referendum will finally rip the party apart. Personally I don’t have a problem with that but Johnson will do anything to avoid that. His desired outcome will be Brexit and then an election where he will hope the undemocratic electoral system will give him a working majority on 35% of the vote. That of course will rip the country apart.

    It wouldn't actually as most Tories are now firmly behind Leave, certainly in the country, as is the Tory Leader (I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016 but would now vote Leave and respect the first vote), while LDs and the SNP are firmly behind Remain.

    If another referendum ripped any party apart it would be Corbyn Labour, where the recent Labour conference saw the party vote by the narrowest of margins not to commit to campaign for Remain against the wishes of most Labour members and where most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats voted Leave.

    I don't want another referendum but it could be win win for the Tories provided Boris campaigned for Leave, if Remain wins narrowly Boris can be Alex Salmond 2 and win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP thanks to furious Leavers wanting revenge as the SNP did in 2015 after the narrow No vote in 2014.

    If Leave wins again Boris would be triumphant as would the Tories with the Remainer parties shattered
    Would you vote for Labour from then on if they won the next general election?
    Only if they won a general election with a majority and were then prevented from forming a government as that would be disrespecting democracy
    What if they were only prevented from forming a government because they split into multiple factions, none of which would compromise, and therefore didnt have a majority in parliament?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,701

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:
    My guess is that there would be a hell of a lot of abstentions should such a vote be held. I cannot see many Labour MPs backing it in theory.

    It would make very little sense to vote either way if negotiations with the EU were still going on. What earthly point would there be in a vote, other than as sheer propaganda?
    To demonstrate to the EU that if they compromise then the deal can get through Parliament. And subtly put pressure on the EU to compromise.

    There's been mutterings that the EU didn't see any point compromising as they didn't think a deal would get through Parliament even if they did. If they see a deal can be ratified that ups the ante.

    If the European parliament voted for the May WA would that put pressure on the UK government to agree it?

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534

    HYUFD said:
    It won't make it much harder for the EU to reject it. But it will make it much easier for Johnson to blame the EU for the failure of negotiations with the domestic audience he cares about.
    Do you really think that the Irish are going to think, "this plan crosses every one of our red lines but, you know what, Gareth Snell voted for it so it's a yes from us"?

    Labour MPs might consider voting for a final agreement. They would not vote for Johnson's proposals. It would make absolutely no sense to do that.

    Depends how Johnson phrases the vote. If it is phrased as an indicative vote "That if the EU agrees to these proposals this house will pass the agreement" then they might consider voting for it. So long as it is explicitly subject to EU agreement.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:
    My guess is that there would be a hell of a lot of abstentions should such a vote be held. I cannot see many Labour MPs backing it in theory.

    It would make very little sense to vote either way if negotiations with the EU were still going on. What earthly point would there be in a vote, other than as sheer propaganda?
    To demonstrate to the EU that if they compromise then the deal can get through Parliament. And subtly put pressure on the EU to compromise.

    There's been mutterings that the EU didn't see any point compromising as they didn't think a deal would get through Parliament even if they did. If they see a deal can be ratified that ups the ante.

    If the European parliament voted for the May WA would that put pressure on the UK government to agree it?

    Yes. It did put pressure on the UK to agree to it [of course the government at the time already had]. The pressure was insufficient, it could only ever be marginal, but it definitely was real.

    Especially when part of the reason not to was thinking the UK wouldn't ratify it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,733
    HYUFD said:

    I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016

    Why didn't you support Leave in 2016?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,006

    rcs1000 said:

    We can't trust the polling on whether people want a referendum. Don't forget that we had a referendum on whether the UK should remain a part of the EU and that gave a different answer to what the polling said.

    The solution, therefore, is to have a referendum on whether we should have a referendum. So we'll only have a referendum on the deal if the people speak through a referendum demanding a referendum.

    We need a pre-referendum to decide the question that will be asked in the referendum, to decide whether we then want a referendum on that question....and then having the referendum on that question if we so decide.
    That's the spirit!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 9,262

    HYUFD said:

    I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016

    Why didn't you support Leave in 2016?
    He always obeys the Tory Leader.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 13,120
    Not a good backdrop for a pure "Revoke" strategy either, hmm?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,200
    isam said:

    isam said:

    As if the only options are parliament voting or another referendum!

    What other option do you see?
    None! That's the problem with the polling :D
    We’ll put you down as a don’t know, then ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    johnt said:

    The problem for the Tories is that another referendum will finally rip the party apart. Personally I don’t have a problem with that but Johnson will do anything to avoid that. His desired outcome will be Brexit and then an election where he will hope the undemocratic electoral system will give him a working majority on 35% of the vote. That of course will rip the country apart.

    It wouldn't actually as most Tories are now firmly behind Leave, certainly in the country, as is the Tory Leader (I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016 but would now vote Leave and respect the first vote), while LDs and the SNP are firmly behind Remain.

    If another referendum ripped any party apart it would be Corbyn Labour, where the recent Labour conference saw the party vote by the narrowest of margins not to commit to campaign for Remain against the wishes of most Labour members and where most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats voted Leave.

    I don't want another referendum but it could be win win for the Tories provided Boris campaigned for Leave, if Remain wins narrowly Boris can be Alex Salmond 2 and win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP thanks to furious Leavers wanting revenge as the SNP did in 2015 after the narrow No vote in 2014.

    If Leave wins again Boris would be triumphant as would the Tories with the Remainer parties shattered
    Would you vote for Labour from then on if they won the next general election?
    Only if they won a general election with a majority and were then prevented from forming a government as that would be disrespecting democracy
    What if they were only prevented from forming a government because they split into multiple factions, none of which would compromise, and therefore didnt have a majority in parliament?
    They would have a majority to implement the manifesto they were elected on
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 8,619
    Labour MPs who end up voting for a Boris Deal who previously failed to support May's Deal should have the Whip withdrawn - and be deselected.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888

    HYUFD said:

    I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016

    Why didn't you support Leave in 2016?
    I voted Remain as I thought the membership as is with the opt-outs was the best option, had membership of the Euro or Schengen been a requirement of continued membership I would have voted Leave.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,701
    edited October 3

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:
    My guess is that there would be a hell of a lot of abstentions should such a vote be held. I cannot see many Labour MPs backing it in theory.

    It would make very little sense to vote either way if negotiations with the EU were still going on. What earthly point would there be in a vote, other than as sheer propaganda?
    To demonstrate to the EU that if they compromise then the deal can get through Parliament. And subtly put pressure on the EU to compromise.

    There's been mutterings that the EU didn't see any point compromising as they didn't think a deal would get through Parliament even if they did. If they see a deal can be ratified that ups the ante.

    If the European parliament voted for the May WA would that put pressure on the UK government to agree it?

    Yes. It did put pressure on the UK to agree to it [of course the government at the time already had]. The pressure was insufficient, it could only ever be marginal, but it definitely was real.

    Especially when part of the reason not to was thinking the UK wouldn't ratify it.

    I am talking about now. Would such a vote put pressure on the UK government?

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 3,097
    rcs1000 said:

    We can't trust the polling on whether people want a referendum. Don't forget that we had a referendum on whether the UK should remain a part of the EU and that gave a different answer to what the polling said.

    The solution, therefore, is to have a referendum on whether we should have a referendum. So we'll only have a referendum on the deal if the people speak through a referendum demanding a referendum.

    You are taking the Michael I think
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,701

    HYUFD said:
    It won't make it much harder for the EU to reject it. But it will make it much easier for Johnson to blame the EU for the failure of negotiations with the domestic audience he cares about.
    Do you really think that the Irish are going to think, "this plan crosses every one of our red lines but, you know what, Gareth Snell voted for it so it's a yes from us"?

    Labour MPs might consider voting for a final agreement. They would not vote for Johnson's proposals. It would make absolutely no sense to do that.

    Depends how Johnson phrases the vote. If it is phrased as an indicative vote "That if the EU agrees to these proposals this house will pass the agreement" then they might consider voting for it. So long as it is explicitly subject to EU agreement.

    No, I don't see that. Labour MPs are not going to open themselves up to the removal of the whip and possible deselection for an indicative vote on a proposal that the EU is almost certainly going to reject in its current form. Some might possibly vote for an agreement, but that is very different.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 13,120
    Amazing developments in Broxtowe. To recap.

    1. Anna Soubry wins in 2017 by 800 votes (1.5%) over Labour.
    2. The constituency association chair initiates a survey of members whether they'd like to deselect her.
    3. He's told to stop it and withdraw the survey.
    4. AS defects to ChUK.
    5. The LibDems decide to stand as well.
    6. The Tories reject their Council leader as a candidate (allegedly because he was too friendly with AS) and choose someone from Wiltshire

    See the latest according to this (admittedly anti-Tory) local website:

    https://beestonia.wordpress.com/2019/10/03/blue-on-blue-brox-tories-go-to-war-on-brox-tories/

    Richard Jackson, who they passed over, has been prominent in Broxtowe politics longer than I have (pre-97).

    There should therefore be 5 candidates:
    Tory from Wiltshire
    Soubry
    Labour
    LibDems
    Brexit

    The seat voted 52% Leave though it has a large town, Beeston, which is demographically like Hampstead).
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,701
    justin124 said:

    Labour MPs who end up voting for a Boris Deal who previously failed to support May's Deal should have the Whip withdrawn - and be deselected.

    My guess is that this is almost certainly what woud happen. However, as I keep saying, there is no possible deal that can be done that the ERG would vote for, so it's all moot anyway.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418
    edited October 3
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    We can't trust the polling on whether people want a referendum. Don't forget that we had a referendum on whether the UK should remain a part of the EU and that gave a different answer to what the polling said.

    The solution, therefore, is to have a referendum on whether we should have a referendum. So we'll only have a referendum on the deal if the people speak through a referendum demanding a referendum.

    We need a pre-referendum to decide the question that will be asked in the referendum, to decide whether we then want a referendum on that question....and then having the referendum on that question if we so decide.
    That's the spirit!
    Although I'm coming round to the vew that we need a Peoples Assembly to decide if we need that pre-referendum.....
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 3,097

    If the EU thinks it has a deal, why on earth would it want us to take the risk of it all being thrown up in the air again by those ornery Brits?

    Makes no sense for them to want this.

    Of course, no further extensions by the EU forces the MPs to do their job - and decide.


    You're not going to change anybodys mind banging on about this when you have some evidence then try again
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    justin124 said:

    Labour MPs who end up voting for a Boris Deal who previously failed to support May's Deal should have the Whip withdrawn - and be deselected.

    Tory MPs who fail to vote for the Boris Deal should certainly have the Whip withdrawn and be deselected equally
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418
    nichomar said:

    If the EU thinks it has a deal, why on earth would it want us to take the risk of it all being thrown up in the air again by those ornery Brits?

    Makes no sense for them to want this.

    Of course, no further extensions by the EU forces the MPs to do their job - and decide.


    You're not going to change anybodys mind banging on about this when you have some evidence then try again
    Argue against my logic then.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,733
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016

    Why didn't you support Leave in 2016?
    I voted Remain as I thought the membership as is with the opt-outs was the best option, had membership of the Euro or Schengen been a requirement of continued membership I would have voted Leave.
    If it's OK for individual voters to change their minds, what would be wrong with a second referendum, in principle?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,561

    Amazing developments in Broxtowe. To recap.

    1. Anna Soubry wins in 2017 by 800 votes (1.5%) over Labour.
    2. The constituency association chair initiates a survey of members whether they'd like to deselect her.
    3. He's told to stop it and withdraw the survey.
    4. AS defects to ChUK.
    5. The LibDems decide to stand as well.
    6. The Tories reject their Council leader as a candidate (allegedly because he was too friendly with AS) and choose someone from Wiltshire

    See the latest according to this (admittedly anti-Tory) local website:

    https://beestonia.wordpress.com/2019/10/03/blue-on-blue-brox-tories-go-to-war-on-brox-tories/

    Richard Jackson, who they passed over, has been prominent in Broxtowe politics longer than I have (pre-97).

    There should therefore be 5 candidates:
    Tory from Wiltshire
    Soubry
    Labour
    LibDems
    Brexit

    The seat voted 52% Leave though it has a large town, Beeston, which is demographically like Hampstead).

    My guess is that the LDs might give AS a free run
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 3,097

    Not a good backdrop for a pure "Revoke" strategy either, hmm?


    Always the labour politician trying to discredit the Lib Dems even if you do it subtly
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 19,377
    edited October 3

    Amazing developments in Broxtowe. To recap.

    1. Anna Soubry wins in 2017 by 800 votes (1.5%) over Labour.
    2. The constituency association chair initiates a survey of members whether they'd like to deselect her.
    3. He's told to stop it and withdraw the survey.
    4. AS defects to ChUK.
    5. The LibDems decide to stand as well.
    6. The Tories reject their Council leader as a candidate (allegedly because he was too friendly with AS) and choose someone from Wiltshire

    See the latest according to this (admittedly anti-Tory) local website:

    https://beestonia.wordpress.com/2019/10/03/blue-on-blue-brox-tories-go-to-war-on-brox-tories/

    Richard Jackson, who they passed over, has been prominent in Broxtowe politics longer than I have (pre-97).

    There should therefore be 5 candidates:
    Tory from Wiltshire
    Soubry
    Labour
    LibDems
    Brexit

    The seat voted 52% Leave though it has a large town, Beeston, which is demographically like Hampstead).

    Evening Nick.

    My daughter's Halls of Residence are Broadgate Park. Is that within the Broxtowe constituency? I ask because they are a very large halls which I expect would mean a lot of LD or Soubry leaning votes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016

    Why didn't you support Leave in 2016?
    I voted Remain as I thought the membership as is with the opt-outs was the best option, had membership of the Euro or Schengen been a requirement of continued membership I would have voted Leave.
    If it's OK for individual voters to change their minds, what would be wrong with a second referendum, in principle?
    After the result of the first one and we have left the EU maybe in a few years time we could have another about rejoining if say Labour or the LDs won a general election but only once the result of the first one has been delivered.

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 3,097

    nichomar said:

    If the EU thinks it has a deal, why on earth would it want us to take the risk of it all being thrown up in the air again by those ornery Brits?

    Makes no sense for them to want this.

    Of course, no further extensions by the EU forces the MPs to do their job - and decide.


    You're not going to change anybodys mind banging on about this when you have some evidence then try again
    Argue against my logic then.
    The day the EU say this or no deal I’ll believe you but as yet I’ve seen no evidence for that position.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 214
    There's enough voters in the 35% GE + 25% DK to counter the 40% who would opt for another referendum, particularly when you take into account that polling always overstates desire for referenda in the first place.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,501
    O/T

    Useful information: if and when you use a phone box, be aware than none of them take the new £1 coins. You have to use 50, 20 and 10 pence coins.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 15,086
    Does anyone think Mark Francois and Guy Verhofstadt look similar ?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 8,619

    justin124 said:

    Labour MPs who end up voting for a Boris Deal who previously failed to support May's Deal should have the Whip withdrawn - and be deselected.

    My guess is that this is almost certainly what woud happen. However, as I keep saying, there is no possible deal that can be done that the ERG would vote for, so it's all moot anyway.

    I do have some respect for committed Labour Brexiteers like Hoey, Stringer et al - in that they have been consistent in their opposition throughout. It would though be unforgiveable for people like Kinnock, Smeeth & Snell who had the opportunity to vote for May's better deal - but chose not to do so - to now decide to support somebody as abhorrent as Johnson.They flunked it earlier on - and should be granted no leeway now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    Scott_P said:
    Hungary ready to veto further extension making the Benn Act redundant, then put the Boris Deal to Parliament as the only alternative to No Deal? Cummings would be a genius if that happened
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 3,097
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    Useful information: if and when you use a phone box, be aware than none of them take the new £1 coins. You have to use 50, 20 and 10 pence coins.

    What’s a phone box?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,935
    So more showboating by Bozo to put a deal before the Commons before the EU council meeting .

    It would be hilarious if it was amended to include a second vote .
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 50,888
    HYUFD said:

    Hungary ready to veto further extension making the Benn Act redundant, then put the Boris Deal to Parliament as the only alternative to No Deal? Cummings would be a genius if that happened

    Collaborating with a foreign power to thwart the will of Parliament?

    Genius...
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 641
    nichomar said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    Useful information: if and when you use a phone box, be aware than none of them take the new £1 coins. You have to use 50, 20 and 10 pence coins.

    What’s a phone box?
    That's the packaging you mobile came it isn't it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Labour MPs who end up voting for a Boris Deal who previously failed to support May's Deal should have the Whip withdrawn - and be deselected.

    My guess is that this is almost certainly what woud happen. However, as I keep saying, there is no possible deal that can be done that the ERG would vote for, so it's all moot anyway.

    I do have some respect for committed Labour Brexiteers like Hoey, Stringer et al - in that they have been consistent in their opposition throughout. It would though be unforgiveable for people like Kinnock, Smeeth & Snell who had the opportunity to vote for May's better deal - but chose not to do so - to now decide to support somebody as abhorrent as Johnson.They flunked it earlier on - and should be granted no leeway now.
    Would happily welcome Smeeth, Snell even Kinnock into the Tory Party with Knighthoods on top if they vote for the Boris Deal and Labour withdraws the Whip and deselects them
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hungary ready to veto further extension making the Benn Act redundant, then put the Boris Deal to Parliament as the only alternative to No Deal? Cummings would be a genius if that happened

    Collaborating with a foreign power to thwart the will of Parliament?

    Genius...
    What the diehard Remainers have been doing with Ireland and Blair has been doing with Macron
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 20,384
    edited October 3
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    johnt said:

    The problem for the Tories is that another referendum will finally rip the party apart. Personally I don’t have a problem with that but Johnson will do anything to avoid that. His desired outcome will be Brexit and then an election where he will hope the undemocratic electoral system will give him a working majority on 35% of the vote. That of course will rip the country apart.

    It wouldn't actually as most Tories are now firmly behind Leave, certainly in the country, as is the Tory Leader (I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016 but would now vote Leave and respect the first vote), while LDs and the SNP are firmly behind Remain.

    If another referendum ripped any party apart it would be Corbyn Labour, where the recent Labour conference saw the party vote by the narrowest of margins not to commit to campaign for Remain against the wishes of most Labour members and where most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats voted Leave.

    I don't want another referendum but it could be win win for the Tories provided Boris campaigned for Leave, if Remain wins narrowly Boris can be Alex Salmond 2 and win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP thanks to furious Leavers wanting revenge as the SNP did in 2015 after the narrow No vote in 2014.

    If Leave wins again Boris would be triumphant as would the Tories with the Remainer parties shattered
    Would you vote for Labour from then on if they won the next general election?
    Only if they won a general election with a majority and were then prevented from forming a government as that would be disrespecting democracy
    We have a sovereign parliament. Deal with it.

    So you would support Jeremy Corbyn. You change with the wind. What kind of a supporter or man of principle do you call yourself?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,935
    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hungary ready to veto further extension making the Benn Act redundant, then put the Boris Deal to Parliament as the only alternative to No Deal? Cummings would be a genius if that happened

    Collaborating with a foreign power to thwart the will of Parliament?

    Genius...
    Yes typical leave hypocrisy . As with the sovereignty of parliament we heard so much about .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    johnt said:

    The problem for the Tories is that another referendum will finally rip the party apart. Personally I don’t have a problem with that but Johnson will do anything to avoid that. His desired outcome will be Brexit and then an election where he will hope the undemocratic electoral system will give him a working majority on 35% of the vote. That of course will rip the country apart.

    It wouldn't actually as most Tories are now firmly behind Leave, certainly in the country, as is the Tory Leader (I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016 but would now vote Leave and respect the first vote), while LDs and the SNP are firmly behind Remain.

    If another referendum ripped any party apart it would be Corbyn Labour, where the recent Labour conference saw the party vote by the narrowest of margins not to commit to campaign for Remain against the wishes of most Labour members and where most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats voted Leave.

    I don't want another referendum but it could be win win for the Tories provided Boris campaigned for Leave, if Remain wins narrowly Boris can be Alex Salmond 2 and win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP thanks to furious Leavers wanting revenge as the SNP did in 2015 after the narrow No vote in 2014.

    If Leave wins again Boris would be triumphant as would the Tories with the Remainer parties shattered
    Would you vote for Labour from then on if they won the next general election?
    Only if they won a general election with a majority and were then prevented from forming a government as that would be disrespecting democracy
    We have a sovereign parliament. Deal with it.

    So you would support Jeremy Corbyn. You change with the wind. What kind of a supporter do you call yourself?
    No I support democracy, if a party wins a general election or a referendum campaign wins that referendum that result deserves to be respected otherwise democracy dies and the only beneficiaries are the political extremes and violence
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,561
    nico67 said:

    So more showboating by Bozo to put a deal before the Commons before the EU council meeting .

    It would be hilarious if it was amended to include a second vote .

    There will probably be an attempt
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 3,097
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Labour MPs who end up voting for a Boris Deal who previously failed to support May's Deal should have the Whip withdrawn - and be deselected.

    My guess is that this is almost certainly what woud happen. However, as I keep saying, there is no possible deal that can be done that the ERG would vote for, so it's all moot anyway.

    I do have some respect for committed Labour Brexiteers like Hoey, Stringer et al - in that they have been consistent in their opposition throughout. It would though be unforgiveable for people like Kinnock, Smeeth & Snell who had the opportunity to vote for May's better deal - but chose not to do so - to now decide to support somebody as abhorrent as Johnson.They flunked it earlier on - and should be granted no leeway now.
    Would happily welcome Smeeth, Snell even Kinnock into the Tory Party with Knighthoods on top if they vote for the Boris Deal and Labour withdraws the Whip and deselects them
    As long as your team wins anything is acceptable.
  • isamisam Posts: 28,277
    edited October 3
    Scott_P said:
    That fellow did great interviews with James O'Brien & Emily Maitlis, which saw them dying to treat him like they do "Stupid Brexiteers" but not sure if attacking a clever Eastern European was a good look
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 3,097
    spudgfsh said:

    nichomar said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    Useful information: if and when you use a phone box, be aware than none of them take the new £1 coins. You have to use 50, 20 and 10 pence coins.

    What’s a phone box?
    That's the packaging you mobile came it isn't it?

    Well I first thought it was a replacement for those things called public conveniences
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888

    nico67 said:

    So more showboating by Bozo to put a deal before the Commons before the EU council meeting .

    It would be hilarious if it was amended to include a second vote .

    There will probably be an attempt
    317 MPs voted for the Brady amendment and the Withdrawal Amendment minus the backstop ie close to the Boris Deal, only 280 MPs voted for a confirmatory referendum on any Deal in the second round of indicative votes
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 1,121
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hungary ready to veto further extension making the Benn Act redundant, then put the Boris Deal to Parliament as the only alternative to No Deal? Cummings would be a genius if that happened

    Collaborating with a foreign power to thwart the will of Parliament?

    Genius...
    What the diehard Remainers have been doing with Ireland and Blair has been doing with Macron
    Read the Ireland Act 1948 dear boy. Ireland is for no purposes to be regarded as a foreign country. And you would struggle to find any collusion with Ireland to thwart the will of Parliament. As for Blair, what office in the executive does he hold now?
  • isamisam Posts: 28,277
    isam said:

    Scott_P said:
    That fellow did great interviews with James O'Brien & Emily Maitlis, which saw them dying to treat him like they do "Stupid Brexiteers" but not sure if attacking a clever Eastern European was a good look
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,481
    The Johnson Deal is BAD. The only good thing about it is that it will almost certainly never see light of day. The proposal retains the downsides of May's Deal, loses all of that deal's advantages, save one. It adds much more significant problems of its own, particularly for Northern Ireland. It's probably unworkable operationally and it misconceives the purpose of international treaties.

    I get that Johnson's Deal is really a political manouevre for his domestic market. But it needs to be underpinned by a real deal.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 20,384
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    johnt said:

    The problem for the Tories is that another referendum will finally rip the party apart. Personally I don’t have a problem with that but Johnson will do anything to avoid that. His desired outcome will be Brexit and then an election where he will hope the undemocratic electoral system will give him a working majority on 35% of the vote. That of course will rip the country apart.

    It wouldn't actually as most Tories are now firmly behind Leave, certainly in the country, as is the Tory Leader (I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016 but would now vote Leave and respect the first vote), while LDs and the SNP are firmly behind Remain.

    If another referendum ripped any party apart it would be Corbyn Labour, where the recent Labour conference saw the party vote by the narrowest of margins not to commit to campaign for Remain against the wishes of most Labour members and where most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats voted Leave.

    I don't want another referendum but it could be win win for the Tories provided Boris campaigned for Leave, if Remain wins narrowly Boris can be Alex Salmond 2 and win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP thanks to furious Leavers wanting revenge as the SNP did in 2015 after the narrow No vote in 2014.

    If Leave wins again Boris would be triumphant as would the Tories with the Remainer parties shattered
    Would you vote for Labour from then on if they won the next general election?
    Only if they won a general election with a majority and were then prevented from forming a government as that would be disrespecting democracy
    We have a sovereign parliament. Deal with it.

    So you would support Jeremy Corbyn. You change with the wind. What kind of a supporter do you call yourself?
    No I support democracy, if a party wins a general election or a referendum campaign wins that referendum that result deserves to be respected otherwise democracy dies and the only beneficiaries are the political extremes and violence
    You have just seen democracy in action over the past three years. That's what a parliamentary democracy looks like.

    If Theresa May had handled it differently we would be out of the EU by now. The referendum result should be honoured but the Cons played party politics (as was their right albeit it was stupid) and therefore so did Labour.

    It's all been perfectly democratic (and legal of course).

    So you have nothing to complain about; indeed you should be rejoicing. That you would vote differently in a referendum doesn't I'm afraid speak well of your integrity or consistency.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 2,093
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    Useful information: if and when you use a phone box, be aware than none of them take the new £1 coins. You have to use 50, 20 and 10 pence coins.

    Is there a phone box app?

    It could let someone lend out there mobile phone and charge a premium
    for the call? Could be a small earner for local shop owners.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 1,121
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    johnt said:

    The problem for the Tories is that another referendum will finally rip the party apart. Personally I don’t have a problem with that but Johnson will do anything to avoid that. His desired outcome will be Brexit and then an election where he will hope the undemocratic electoral system will give him a working majority on 35% of the vote. That of course will rip the country apart.

    It wouldn't actually as most Tories are now firmly behind Leave, certainly in the country, as is the Tory Leader (I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016 but would now vote Leave and respect the first vote), while LDs and the SNP are firmly behind Remain.

    If another referendum ripped any party apart it would be Corbyn Labour, where the recent Labour conference saw the party vote by the narrowest of margins not to commit to campaign for Remain against the wishes of most Labour members and where most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats voted Leave.

    I don't want another referendum but it could be win win for the Tories provided Boris campaigned for Leave, if Remain wins narrowly Boris can be Alex Salmond 2 and win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP thanks to furious Leavers wanting revenge as the SNP did in 2015 after the narrow No vote in 2014.

    If Leave wins again Boris would be triumphant as would the Tories with the Remainer parties shattered
    Would you vote for Labour from then on if they won the next general election?
    Only if they won a general election with a majority and were then prevented from forming a government as that would be disrespecting democracy
    We have a sovereign parliament. Deal with it.

    So you would support Jeremy Corbyn. You change with the wind. What kind of a supporter do you call yourself?
    No I support democracy, if a party wins a general election or a referendum campaign wins that referendum that result deserves to be respected otherwise democracy dies and the only beneficiaries are the political extremes and violence
    Some results don’t deserve to be respected. Risking Godwin here, the German general elections of 1932 and 1933 spring immediately to mind. And the 1932 Western Australia independence referendum was not implemented. No violence there. In the case of the 2016 vote, the contradictory promises cannot be delivered so it cannot help but be dishonoured.
  • isamisam Posts: 28,277
    FF43 said:

    The Johnson Deal is BAD. The only good thing about it is that it will almost certainly never see light of day. The proposal retains the downsides of May's Deal, loses all of that deal's advantages, save one. It adds much more significant problems of its own, particularly for Northern Ireland. It's probably unworkable operationally and it misconceives the purpose of international treaties.

    I get that Johnson's Deal is really a political manouevre for his domestic market. But it needs to be underpinned by a real deal.

    Tut, tut *Important bit this* "proposal", not "deal"
This discussion has been closed.