Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we edge toward a possible general election the latest Commo

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited October 3 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we edge toward a possible general election the latest Commons Seats spreads from SportingIndex

So far I’ve only had one bet a buy of GRN seats at 1.5.

Read the full story here


Comments

  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,607
    First!
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,607
    Tory defeat at the next GE! :sunglasses:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,995
    Second from Carolina
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307
    The Conservatives look like a sell but you might well need to wait for the result to collect.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888

    Tory defeat at the next GE! :sunglasses:

    Tory victory at the next GE!

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,995
    BXP looks like a sell
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,607
    How long until the Brexit supporting media turn on BJ? Could be just days away. I suspect seat spreads could shift dramatically once media output turns against BJ and the Tories...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,734
    edited October 3
    You need cojones of steel to play on the main parties in this market.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 815
    I don't know if we did this on the previous thread, but

    K

    J

    Fu*king

    T

    Heptathlon world championship gold!
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,607
    HYUFD said:

    Tory defeat at the next GE! :sunglasses:

    Tory victory at the next GE!

    Tactical voting is going to play havoc with UNS. Interestingly I put a recent poll with Tories 35%, LD 23% and Labour 21% into Baxter and the safest Tory seat was in Scotland. Surely some mistake! :wink:
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 953

    How long until the Brexit supporting media turn on BJ? Could be just days away. I suspect seat spreads could shift dramatically once media output turns against BJ and the Tories...

    What's the driver for that?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 984
    IanB2 said:

    Second from Carolina

    Heard it’s been 100F in NC this week. That is brutal in October.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888

    HYUFD said:

    Tory defeat at the next GE! :sunglasses:

    Tory victory at the next GE!

    Tactical voting is going to play havoc with UNS. Interestingly I put a recent poll with Tories 35%, LD 23% and Labour 21% into Baxter and the safest Tory seat was in Scotland. Surely some mistake! :wink:
    It won't most LDs are not going to vote for Corbyn Labour and some BXP voters may tactically vote Tory.

    The only parties which could really benefit from tactical voting are the LDs from Labour and the Greens
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,607
    Tabman said:

    How long until the Brexit supporting media turn on BJ? Could be just days away. I suspect seat spreads could shift dramatically once media output turns against BJ and the Tories...

    What's the driver for that?
    Depends on whether BJ goes for an extension or someone else supercedes him as PM. Usually a new PM gets some favourable press. The Brexit supporting media are like a one club golfer. They can only inflience one side of the debate at one time due to diminishing returns i.e. Tories vs. Brext party in the Euro elections of 2019. If BJ is ousted he will be a tainted figure...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307
    IanB2 said:

    BXP looks like a sell

    Brave.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888

    Tabman said:

    How long until the Brexit supporting media turn on BJ? Could be just days away. I suspect seat spreads could shift dramatically once media output turns against BJ and the Tories...

    What's the driver for that?
    Depends on whether BJ goes for an extension or someone else supercedes him as PM. Usually a new PM gets some favourable press. The Brexit supporting media are like a one club golfer. They can only inflience one side of the debate at one time due to diminishing returns i.e. Tories vs. Brext party in the Euro elections of 2019. If BJ is ousted he will be a tainted figure...
    BJ won't be ousted, he will deliver Brexit and beat Corbyn Labour
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,006
    Now, for those of you thinking that the spreads on Brexit (or Green or LD) are wrong, remember this:

    Assymetry means you are effectively buying an option.

    Therefore you would expect that for geographically diverse parties, their spreads (especially this far out) would overstate their chances.

    So, even if you think that 30 is the most likely outcome for the LDs, then if you think there is a 5% chance they get 200 seats, you need to factor that into your betting.

    This spread should not be the same as the Betfair midpoint.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,003
    FPT:
    FF43 said:



    I'm afraid that's because the Leave position is bankrupt. There are no specific, tangible things to get out of Brexit. There never were any. All they have is a democratic vote which they want to make sure never gets overturned in an equally democratic second vote. And they have a threat of violence if they don't get their way. That's it. In short, Brexit was a mistake and, putting it bluntly, Leavers did make the wrong choice. At some point we have to face up to it.

    This is the problem. Demanding that Leave voters "face up to" making the wrong choice, as extreme Remainers demanded (a position that they, unfortunately, have successfully maneuvered most of the mainstream parties into), was always unrealistic.

    It's basic human psychology: people don't like to admit that they got something wrong. And it's not just limited to Leave voters (for example, David Cameron still refusing to admit to himself that calling an EU referendum was a mistake from his own POV).

    A symbolic "Brexit In Name Only", which allowed Leave voters to save face, was always going to be the most Remain-friendly possible option.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 377

    IanB2 said:

    BXP looks like a sell

    Brave.
    Agreed. If it was a straight up over/under bet I'd take the under every time, but on spreads you could take a rare beating if the Tories do collapse
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307
    PaulM said:

    IanB2 said:

    BXP looks like a sell

    Brave.
    Agreed. If it was a straight up over/under bet I'd take the under every time, but on spreads you could take a rare beating if the Tories do collapse
    The par result for the Brexit party is between zero and one. If Boris Johnson’s credibility shatters, the Brexit party will get at least 50.
  • sladeslade Posts: 801
    LD gain in Somerset.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,607
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory defeat at the next GE! :sunglasses:

    Tory victory at the next GE!

    Tactical voting is going to play havoc with UNS. Interestingly I put a recent poll with Tories 35%, LD 23% and Labour 21% into Baxter and the safest Tory seat was in Scotland. Surely some mistake! :wink:
    It won't most LDs are not going to vote for Corbyn Labour and some BXP voters may tactically vote Tory.

    The only parties which could really benefit from tactical voting are the LDs from Labour and the Greens
    I would not bank on people not voting for Labour because of Corbyn. I might vote Labour to ensure the local Labour MP gets in again. Depends on the polls! If Labour suddenly look like winning a majority i will vote LD. I am utterly opposed to Brexit. The worst Corbyn can do is overheat the economy with increased public spending, taxes might go up but I doubt that will impact me. Brexit will screw the economy, anyone who supports it should pay a hefty solidarity fund payment to help those whose lives are turned upside down by Brexit...
  • Danny565 said:

    FPT:

    FF43 said:



    I'm afraid that's because the Leave position is bankrupt. There are no specific, tangible things to get out of Brexit. There never were any. All they have is a democratic vote which they want to make sure never gets overturned in an equally democratic second vote. And they have a threat of violence if they don't get their way. That's it. In short, Brexit was a mistake and, putting it bluntly, Leavers did make the wrong choice. At some point we have to face up to it.

    This is the problem. Demanding that Leave voters "face up to" making the wrong choice, as extreme Remainers demanded (a position that they, unfortunately, have successfully maneuvered most of the mainstream parties into), was always unrealistic.

    It's basic human psychology: people don't like to admit that they got something wrong. And it's not just limited to Leave voters (for example, David Cameron still refusing to admit to himself that calling an EU referendum was a mistake from his own POV).

    A symbolic "Brexit In Name Only", which allowed Leave voters to save face, was always going to be the most Remain-friendly possible option.
    The EEA - per article 112 - also allows an emergency brake on freedom of movement as well. If we had pursued it, we could have stayed in the single market while also trying to address leavers' concerns about migration.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,570
    rcs1000 said:

    Now, for those of you thinking that the spreads on Brexit (or Green or LD) are wrong, remember this:

    Assymetry means you are effectively buying an option.

    Therefore you would expect that for geographically diverse parties, their spreads (especially this far out) would overstate their chances.

    So, even if you think that 30 is the most likely outcome for the LDs, then if you think there is a 5% chance they get 200 seats, you need to factor that into your betting.

    This spread should not be the same as the Betfair midpoint.

    Of course it should. They should both reflect the arithmetic mean of the possible outcomes, weighted by their probabilities.

    Certainly that's not the same as the modal outcome, but I don't think anyone ever suggested that betting odds should reflect the mode.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    Surprised there has been no polls since the speech/ offer .

    Guess we wait until Saturday?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,995

    PaulM said:

    IanB2 said:

    BXP looks like a sell

    Brave.
    Agreed. If it was a straight up over/under bet I'd take the under every time, but on spreads you could take a rare beating if the Tories do collapse
    The par result for the Brexit party is between zero and one. If Boris Johnson’s credibility shatters, the Brexit party will get at least 50.
    Lol @ "collapse"
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894
    I've sold UKIP here. It'll earn me £15 when it settles up.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,330
    Mel Philips still severe as ever.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    edited October 3

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory defeat at the next GE! :sunglasses:

    Tory victory at the next GE!

    Tactical voting is going to play havoc with UNS. Interestingly I put a recent poll with Tories 35%, LD 23% and Labour 21% into Baxter and the safest Tory seat was in Scotland. Surely some mistake! :wink:
    It won't most LDs are not going to vote for Corbyn Labour and some BXP voters may tactically vote Tory.

    The only parties which could really benefit from tactical voting are the LDs from Labour and the Greens
    I would not bank on people not voting for Labour because of Corbyn. I might vote Labour to ensure the local Labour MP gets in again. Depends on the polls! If Labour suddenly look like winning a majority i will vote LD. I am utterly opposed to Brexit. The worst Corbyn can do is overheat the economy with increased public spending, taxes might go up but I doubt that will impact me. Brexit will screw the economy, anyone who supports it should pay a hefty solidarity fund payment to help those whose lives are turned upside down by Brexit...
    Yes but you are an elitist diehard Remainer fanatic with contempt for the Leave voting majority (and I note even you would vote LD rather than risk a Corbyn majority)
  • PaulM said:

    IanB2 said:

    BXP looks like a sell

    Brave.
    Agreed. If it was a straight up over/under bet I'd take the under every time, but on spreads you could take a rare beating if the Tories do collapse
    The par result for the Brexit party is between zero and one. If Boris Johnson’s credibility shatters, the Brexit party will get at least 50.
    Agreed. For the same reason, buying or selling Con & Lab are high risk options. LDs are a bit safer because the downside risk is fairly small, but look at their target seats and you can understand why the spread is lower than their polling percentages might suggest.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 377
    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Now, for those of you thinking that the spreads on Brexit (or Green or LD) are wrong, remember this:

    Assymetry means you are effectively buying an option.

    Therefore you would expect that for geographically diverse parties, their spreads (especially this far out) would overstate their chances.

    So, even if you think that 30 is the most likely outcome for the LDs, then if you think there is a 5% chance they get 200 seats, you need to factor that into your betting.

    This spread should not be the same as the Betfair midpoint.

    Of course it should. They should both reflect the arithmetic mean of the possible outcomes, weighted by their probabilities.

    Certainly that's not the same as the modal outcome, but I don't think anyone ever suggested that betting odds should reflect the mode.
    The betfair odds are an over/under bet. It doesn't matter how far over/under their midpoint you are. Unlike spread betting
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,733
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory defeat at the next GE! :sunglasses:

    Tory victory at the next GE!

    Tactical voting is going to play havoc with UNS. Interestingly I put a recent poll with Tories 35%, LD 23% and Labour 21% into Baxter and the safest Tory seat was in Scotland. Surely some mistake! :wink:
    It won't most LDs are not going to vote for Corbyn Labour and some BXP voters may tactically vote Tory.

    The only parties which could really benefit from tactical voting are the LDs from Labour and the Greens
    I would not bank on people not voting for Labour because of Corbyn. I might vote Labour to ensure the local Labour MP gets in again. Depends on the polls! If Labour suddenly look like winning a majority i will vote LD. I am utterly opposed to Brexit. The worst Corbyn can do is overheat the economy with increased public spending, taxes might go up but I doubt that will impact me. Brexit will screw the economy, anyone who supports it should pay a hefty solidarity fund payment to help those whose lives are turned upside down by Brexit...
    Yes but you are an elitist diehard Remainer fanatic with contempt for the Leave voting majority (and I note even you would vote LD rather than risk a Corbyn majority)
    But you never voted Leave!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,995

    IanB2 said:

    Second from Carolina

    Heard it’s been 100F in NC this week. That is brutal in October.
    Today was the hottest October day ever recorded in N Carolina. I took the dog up into the high mountains but still got drenched in sweat on a shortish hike. I am now in Asheville square having a very good meal as the sun sinks toward sunset in 40 mins time, and it must still be high 20sC
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888


    Swing 3.5% Labour to Tory in Charnwood
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,570
    HYUFD said:
    Swing 50% to Raving Loony on PB.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,995
    HYUFD said:
    That swing from Labour to a proper remain party is what makes the next GE so unpredictable
  • eggegg Posts: 414
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory defeat at the next GE! :sunglasses:

    Tory victory at the next GE!

    Tactical voting is going to play havoc with UNS. Interestingly I put a recent poll with Tories 35%, LD 23% and Labour 21% into Baxter and the safest Tory seat was in Scotland. Surely some mistake! :wink:
    It won't most LDs are not going to vote for Corbyn Labour and some BXP voters may tactically vote Tory.

    The only parties which could really benefit from tactical voting are the LDs from Labour and the Greens
    You are calling them Lib Dem’s but how long have they been Lib Dem voters? If a poll shows 24% Lib Dem’s are they all libdems? Regardless what polling says doesn’t your hunch suggest a soft underbelly to it rather than staunchness to all of it
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 815
    rcs1000 said:

    Now, for those of you thinking that the spreads on Brexit (or Green or LD) are wrong, remember this:

    Assymetry means you are effectively buying an option.

    Therefore you would expect that for geographically diverse parties, their spreads (especially this far out) would overstate their chances.

    So, even if you think that 30 is the most likely outcome for the LDs, then if you think there is a 5% chance they get 200 seats, you need to factor that into your betting.

    This spread should not be the same as the Betfair midpoint.

    He's right, you know. The tail risk is heavier than exponential.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,995

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory defeat at the next GE! :sunglasses:

    Tory victory at the next GE!

    Tactical voting is going to play havoc with UNS. Interestingly I put a recent poll with Tories 35%, LD 23% and Labour 21% into Baxter and the safest Tory seat was in Scotland. Surely some mistake! :wink:
    It won't most LDs are not going to vote for Corbyn Labour and some BXP voters may tactically vote Tory.

    The only parties which could really benefit from tactical voting are the LDs from Labour and the Greens
    I would not bank on people not voting for Labour because of Corbyn. I might vote Labour to ensure the local Labour MP gets in again. Depends on the polls! If Labour suddenly look like winning a majority i will vote LD. I am utterly opposed to Brexit. The worst Corbyn can do is overheat the economy with increased public spending, taxes might go up but I doubt that will impact me. Brexit will screw the economy, anyone who supports it should pay a hefty solidarity fund payment to help those whose lives are turned upside down by Brexit...
    Yes but you are an elitist diehard Remainer fanatic with contempt for the Leave voting majority (and I note even you would vote LD rather than risk a Corbyn majority)
    But you never voted Leave!
    After the second referendum when we decide to remain, HY's posts will be so full-on pro-EU, you wouldn't believe
  • Drutt said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Now, for those of you thinking that the spreads on Brexit (or Green or LD) are wrong, remember this:

    Assymetry means you are effectively buying an option.

    Therefore you would expect that for geographically diverse parties, their spreads (especially this far out) would overstate their chances.

    So, even if you think that 30 is the most likely outcome for the LDs, then if you think there is a 5% chance they get 200 seats, you need to factor that into your betting.

    This spread should not be the same as the Betfair midpoint.

    He's right, you know. The tail risk is heavier than exponential.
    Drutt, you are new here. You are not allowed to tell Robert he is right, even when he is.

    First warning. ConHome next time.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,607
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory defeat at the next GE! :sunglasses:

    Tory victory at the next GE!

    Tactical voting is going to play havoc with UNS. Interestingly I put a recent poll with Tories 35%, LD 23% and Labour 21% into Baxter and the safest Tory seat was in Scotland. Surely some mistake! :wink:
    It won't most LDs are not going to vote for Corbyn Labour and some BXP voters may tactically vote Tory.

    The only parties which could really benefit from tactical voting are the LDs from Labour and the Greens
    I would not bank on people not voting for Labour because of Corbyn. I might vote Labour to ensure the local Labour MP gets in again. Depends on the polls! If Labour suddenly look like winning a majority i will vote LD. I am utterly opposed to Brexit. The worst Corbyn can do is overheat the economy with increased public spending, taxes might go up but I doubt that will impact me. Brexit will screw the economy, anyone who supports it should pay a hefty solidarity fund payment to help those whose lives are turned upside down by Brexit...
    Yes but you are an elitist diehard Remainer fanatic with contempt for the Leave voting majority (and I note even you would vote LD rather than risk a Corbyn majority)
    lol - I don't think anyone could call me elitist! I am against Brexit because it will screw the economy. Immigration will continue and the poor will be left to suffer, whilst the rich take more out of society than they give. Brexit is like Trump: Stupidity on stilts. It is like the picture showing the ascent of man from ape to human. Something has gone wrong and as a species we have collectively gone backwards. I will have nothing to do with it...
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 377

    PaulM said:

    IanB2 said:

    BXP looks like a sell

    Brave.
    Agreed. If it was a straight up over/under bet I'd take the under every time, but on spreads you could take a rare beating if the Tories do collapse
    The par result for the Brexit party is between zero and one. If Boris Johnson’s credibility shatters, the Brexit party will get at least 50.
    Agreed. For the same reason, buying or selling Con & Lab are high risk options. LDs are a bit safer because the downside risk is fairly small, but look at their target seats and you can understand why the spread is lower than their polling percentages might suggest.
    I'd be buying Labour at those levels. I just don't see any way Labour go below 205ish. Anything below that means Labour are losing heartland seats in some form of Brexit backlash, so maybe you could cover with a small buy on the BXP.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492
    HYUFD said:
    It's a swing of 11.85% from Tory to Remain. If that happens at the GE the Tories are sunk and there wasn't even a Brexit Party candidate to split the Leave vote.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,995

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory defeat at the next GE! :sunglasses:

    Tory victory at the next GE!

    Tactical voting is going to play havoc with UNS. Interestingly I put a recent poll with Tories 35%, LD 23% and Labour 21% into Baxter and the safest Tory seat was in Scotland. Surely some mistake! :wink:
    It won't most LDs are not going to vote for Corbyn Labour and some BXP voters may tactically vote Tory.

    The only parties which could really benefit from tactical voting are the LDs from Labour and the Greens
    I would not bank on people not voting for Labour because of Corbyn. I might vote Labour to ensure the local Labour MP gets in again. Depends on the polls! If Labour suddenly look like winning a majority i will vote LD. I am utterly opposed to Brexit. The worst Corbyn can do is overheat the economy with increased public spending, taxes might go up but I doubt that will impact me. Brexit will screw the economy, anyone who supports it should pay a hefty solidarity fund payment to help those whose lives are turned upside down by Brexit...
    Yes but you are an elitist diehard Remainer fanatic with contempt for the Leave voting majority (and I note even you would vote LD rather than risk a Corbyn majority)
    lol - I don't think anyone could call me elitist! I am against Brexit because it will screw the economy. Immigration will continue and the poor will be left to suffer, whilst the rich take more out of society than they give. Brexit is like Trump: Stupidity on stilts. It is like the picture showing the ascent of man from ape to human. Something has gone wrong and as a species we have collectively gone backwards. I will have nothing to do with it...
    If, as has widely been suggested, remainers dont want to date a leaver, and vice versa, and the same is true of pro- and anti-Trump Americans, we could be at an evolutionary breakpoint! ;) ?
  • eggegg Posts: 414
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    That swing from Labour to a proper remain party is what makes the next GE so unpredictable
    Green surely picking up moderate remainery Tory’s too?

    I for one don’t believe the brexit and Tory party poll total are one and same thing nor labour and green totals. All this year we have seen greens do electorally well in Tory areas mopping up Tory remainers.

    Has Boris mum had anything to say about being in that conference speech? Isn’t she the only Labour voter in the family? It was a big cheer at conference but maybe she voted leave for same reason as Corbyn and many of his union friends: EU is pro business and anti socialist revolution. A leave voter doesn’t mean a convert at the next Boris rally you know
  • slade said:

    LD gain in Somerset.

    That was a racing certainty.

    The Charnwood result looks more interesting. Did LD stand aside for Green, or was there no available candidate?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    edited October 3

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory defeat at the next GE! :sunglasses:

    Tory victory at the next GE!

    Tactical voting is going to play havoc with UNS. Interestingly I put a recent poll with Tories 35%, LD 23% and Labour 21% into Baxter and the safest Tory seat was in Scotland. Surely some mistake! :wink:
    It won't most LDs are not going to vote for Corbyn Labour and some BXP voters may tactically vote Tory.

    The only parties which could really benefit from tactical voting are the LDs from Labour and the Greens
    I would not bank on people not voting for Labour because of Corbyn. I might vote Labour to ensure the local Labour MP gets in again. Depends on the polls! If Labour suddenly look like winning a majority i will vote LD. I am utterly opposed to Brexit. The worst Corbyn can do is overheat the economy with increased public spending, taxes might go up but I doubt that will impact me. Brexit will screw the economy, anyone who supports it should pay a hefty solidarity fund payment to help those whose lives are turned upside down by Brexit...
    Yes but you are an elitist diehard Remainer fanatic with contempt for the Leave voting majority (and I note even you would vote LD rather than risk a Corbyn majority)
    lol - I don't think anyone could call me elitist! I am against Brexit because it will screw the economy. Immigration will continue and the poor will be left to suffer, whilst the rich take more out of society than they give. Brexit is like Trump: Stupidity on stilts. It is like the picture showing the ascent of man from ape to human. Something has gone wrong and as a species we have collectively gone backwards. I will have nothing to do with it...
    You are a diehard Remainer Liberal Democrat voter, face it you are as snobby and elitist as they get politically! Leave voters voted to regain sovereignty and replace free movement with a points system and that is what they will get
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 984
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Second from Carolina

    Heard it’s been 100F in NC this week. That is brutal in October.
    Today was the hottest October day ever recorded in N Carolina. I took the dog up into the high mountains but still got drenched in sweat on a shortish hike. I am now in Asheville square having a very good meal as the sun sinks toward sunset in 40 mins time, and it must still be high 20sC
    Enjoy your dinner old bean, and the more comfortable evening temperatures.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    edited October 3


    13% swing from Labour to the Tories in Somerset too
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,607
    edited October 3
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory defeat at the next GE! :sunglasses:

    Tory victory at the next GE!

    Tactical voting is going to play havoc with UNS. Interestingly I put a recent poll with Tories 35%, LD 23% and Labour 21% into Baxter and the safest Tory seat was in Scotland. Surely some mistake! :wink:
    It won't most LDs are not going to vote for Corbyn Labour and some BXP voters may tactically vote Tory.

    The only parties which could really benefit from tactical voting are the LDs from Labour and the Greens
    I would not bank on people not voting for Labour because of Corbyn. I might vote Labour to ensure the local Labour MP gets in again. Depends on the polls! If Labour suddenly look like winning a majority i will vote LD. I am utterly opposed to Brexit. The worst Corbyn can do is overheat the economy with increased public spending, taxes might go up but I doubt that will impact me. Brexit will screw the economy, anyone who supports it should pay a hefty solidarity fund payment to help those whose lives are turned upside down by Brexit...
    Yes but you are an elitist diehard Remainer fanatic with contempt for the Leave voting majority (and I note even you would vote LD rather than risk a Corbyn majority)
    lol - I don't think anyone could call me elitist! I am against Brexit because it will screw the economy. Immigration will continue and the poor will be left to suffer, whilst the rich take more out of society than they give. Brexit is like Trump: Stupidity on stilts. It is like the picture showing the ascent of man from ape to human. Something has gone wrong and as a species we have collectively gone backwards. I will have nothing to do with it...
    If, as has widely been suggested, remainers dont want to date a leaver, and vice versa, and the same is true of pro- and anti-Trump Americans, we could be at an evolutionary breakpoint! ;) ?
    Humans will probably wipe themselves out with lowered sperm counts/ declining female fertility due to pollution, lifestyle and inactivity. Not only are humans inducing their own decline but have induced a mass extinction in other life on this planet. Trump and Brexit are Toxic but these issues are related to the abuse of environment and human body!Trump and Brexit speed up human's expirary date.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,995
    edited October 3

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Second from Carolina

    Heard it’s been 100F in NC this week. That is brutal in October.
    Today was the hottest October day ever recorded in N Carolina. I took the dog up into the high mountains but still got drenched in sweat on a shortish hike. I am now in Asheville square having a very good meal as the sun sinks toward sunset in 40 mins time, and it must still be high 20sC
    Enjoy your dinner old bean, and the more comfortable evening temperatures.
    I drive to Virginia tomorrow, hopefully more temperate. Meanwhile Asheville deserves five stars as a great place to visit.

    I've not visited 'the South' before, and it carries a lot of historical baggage. But so far - Kentucky, Tennessee, a foray into north Georgia, and N Carolina, it's been great. Edit/ apart from ubiquitous grits
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,006
    HYUFD said:
    Are you really saying that the Labour-Tory swing is the most interesting thing about that result?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Are you really saying that the Labour-Tory swing is the most interesting thing about that result?
    Yes as there are masses of Labour v Tory marginals and barely any Tory v Green marginals
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 815
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Second from Carolina

    Heard it’s been 100F in NC this week. That is brutal in October.
    Today was the hottest October day ever recorded in N Carolina. I took the dog up into the high mountains but still got drenched in sweat on a shortish hike. I am now in Asheville square having a very good meal as the sun sinks toward sunset in 40 mins time, and it must still be high 20sC
    I've just walked home in the drizzle in Brizzle, so I for one welcome our new post-apocolyptic climate disaster lifestyle.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Are you really saying that the Labour-Tory swing is the most interesting thing about that result?
    For modelling purposes wrt the next GE ?
    Probably.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,006

    Drutt said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Now, for those of you thinking that the spreads on Brexit (or Green or LD) are wrong, remember this:

    Assymetry means you are effectively buying an option.

    Therefore you would expect that for geographically diverse parties, their spreads (especially this far out) would overstate their chances.

    So, even if you think that 30 is the most likely outcome for the LDs, then if you think there is a 5% chance they get 200 seats, you need to factor that into your betting.

    This spread should not be the same as the Betfair midpoint.

    He's right, you know. The tail risk is heavier than exponential.
    Drutt, you are new here. You are not allowed to tell Robert he is right, even when he is.

    First warning. ConHome next time.
    Unless it's about Radiohead.

    Then you're allowed to tell me I'm right.

  • sladeslade Posts: 801
    Con hold in Cardiff.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,733
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Second from Carolina

    Heard it’s been 100F in NC this week. That is brutal in October.
    Today was the hottest October day ever recorded in N Carolina. I took the dog up into the high mountains but still got drenched in sweat on a shortish hike. I am now in Asheville square having a very good meal as the sun sinks toward sunset in 40 mins time, and it must still be high 20sC
    Was pretty chilly in Westminster today!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,762
    edited October 3
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Second from Carolina

    Heard it’s been 100F in NC this week. That is brutal in October.
    Today was the hottest October day ever recorded in N Carolina. I took the dog up into the high mountains but still got drenched in sweat on a shortish hike. I am now in Asheville square having a very good meal as the sun sinks toward sunset in 40 mins time, and it must still be high 20sC
    Enjoy your dinner old bean, and the more comfortable evening temperatures.
    I drive to Virginia tomorrow, hopefully more temperate. Meanwhile Asheville deserves five stars as a great place to visit.

    I've not visited 'the South' before, and it carries a lot of historical baggage. But so far - Kentucky, Tennessee, a foray into north Georgia, and N Carolina, it's been great. Edit/ apart from ubiquitous grits
    Love Asheville....been there a number of times and always had a great time. Blue ridge parkway is a great drive.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 815
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory defeat at the next GE! :sunglasses:

    Tory victory at the next GE!

    Tactical voting is going to play havoc with UNS. Interestingly I put a recent poll with Tories 35%, LD 23% and Labour 21% into Baxter and the safest Tory seat was in Scotland. Surely some mistake! :wink:
    It won't most LDs are not going to vote for Corbyn Labour and some BXP voters may tactically vote Tory.

    The only parties which could really benefit from tactical voting are the LDs from Labour and the Greens
    I would not bank on people not voting for Labour because of Corbyn. I might vote Labour to ensure the local Labour MP gets in again. Depends on the polls! If Labour suddenly look like winning a majority i will vote LD. I am utterly opposed to Brexit. The worst Corbyn can do is overheat the economy with increased public spending, taxes might go up but I doubt that will impact me. Brexit will screw the economy, anyone who supports it should pay a hefty solidarity fund payment to help those whose lives are turned upside down by Brexit...
    Yes but you are an elitist diehard Remainer fanatic with contempt for the Leave voting majority (and I note even you would vote LD rather than risk a Corbyn majority)
    lol - I don't think anyone could call me elitist! I am against Brexit because it will screw the economy. Immigration will continue and the poor will be left to suffer, whilst the rich take more out of society than they give. Brexit is like Trump: Stupidity on stilts. It is like the picture showing the ascent of man from ape to human. Something has gone wrong and as a species we have collectively gone backwards. I will have nothing to do with it...
    You are a diehard Remainer Liberal Democrat voter, face it you are as snobby and elitist as they get politically! Leave voters voted to regain sovereignty and replace free movement with a points system and that is what they will get
    Look, I'm on your (new) side about leaving the EU, but we're going to have to sound a klaxon every time you write 'diehard Remainer' from now on.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888


    Swing 2.75% Labour to Tory in Cardiff as well
  • PaulM said:

    PaulM said:

    IanB2 said:

    BXP looks like a sell

    Brave.
    Agreed. If it was a straight up over/under bet I'd take the under every time, but on spreads you could take a rare beating if the Tories do collapse
    The par result for the Brexit party is between zero and one. If Boris Johnson’s credibility shatters, the Brexit party will get at least 50.
    Agreed. For the same reason, buying or selling Con & Lab are high risk options. LDs are a bit safer because the downside risk is fairly small, but look at their target seats and you can understand why the spread is lower than their polling percentages might suggest.
    I'd be buying Labour at those levels. I just don't see any way Labour go below 205ish. Anything below that means Labour are losing heartland seats in some form of Brexit backlash, so maybe you could cover with a small buy on the BXP.

    Yes, I should have added the proviso that the Labour vote is more resilient and less Brexit obsessed than the Con vote, so buying Lab is a bit less risky but I wouldn't chance it myself.

    I wouldn't buy BXP with counterfeit but as AM and others have indicated, there is always that chance it could mop up the disaffected Tory vote. Even so they are such a disorganised bunch I can't see them converting votes into many seats. Remember UKIP in 2015 - 12% of the vote, no seats. BXP could easily match that next time around.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,733
    Drutt said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory defeat at the next GE! :sunglasses:

    Tory victory at the next GE!

    Tactical voting is going to play havoc with UNS. Interestingly I put a recent poll with Tories 35%, LD 23% and Labour 21% into Baxter and the safest Tory seat was in Scotland. Surely some mistake! :wink:
    It won't most LDs are not going to vote for Corbyn Labour and some BXP voters may tactically vote Tory.

    The only parties which could really benefit from tactical voting are the LDs from Labour and the Greens
    I would not bank on people not voting for Labour because of Corbyn. I might vote Labour to ensure the local Labour MP gets in again. Depends on the polls! If Labour suddenly look like winning a majority i will vote LD. I am utterly opposed to Brexit. The worst Corbyn can do is overheat the economy with increased public spending, taxes might go up but I doubt that will impact me. Brexit will screw the economy, anyone who supports it should pay a hefty solidarity fund payment to help those whose lives are turned upside down by Brexit...
    Yes but you are an elitist diehard Remainer fanatic with contempt for the Leave voting majority (and I note even you would vote LD rather than risk a Corbyn majority)
    lol - I don't think anyone could call me elitist! I am against Brexit because it will screw the economy. Immigration will continue and the poor will be left to suffer, whilst the rich take more out of society than they give. Brexit is like Trump: Stupidity on stilts. It is like the picture showing the ascent of man from ape to human. Something has gone wrong and as a species we have collectively gone backwards. I will have nothing to do with it...
    You are a diehard Remainer Liberal Democrat voter, face it you are as snobby and elitist as they get politically! Leave voters voted to regain sovereignty and replace free movement with a points system and that is what they will get
    Look, I'm on your (new) side about leaving the EU, but we're going to have to sound a klaxon every time you write 'diehard Remainer' from now on.
    [Alan Rickman voice]
    "I am an exceptional Remainer, Mr HYUFD. And since I'm moving up to Revoking, you should be more polite!"
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,607
    edited October 3
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory defeat at the next GE! :sunglasses:

    Tory victory at the next GE!

    Tactical voting is going to play havoc with UNS. Interestingly I put a recent poll with Tories 35%, LD 23% and Labour 21% into Baxter and the safest Tory seat was in Scotland. Surely some mistake! :wink:
    It won't most LDs are not going to vote for Corbyn Labour and some BXP voters may tactically vote Tory.

    The only parties which could really benefit from tactical voting are the LDs from Labour and the Greens
    I would not bank on people not voting for Labour because of Corbyn. I might vote Labour to ensure the local Labour MP gets in again. Depends on the polls! If Labour suddenly look like winning a majority i will vote LD. I am utterly opposed to Brexit. The worst Corbyn can do is overheat the economy with increased public spending, taxes might go up but I doubt that will impact me. Brexit will screw the economy, anyone who supports it should pay a hefty solidarity fund payment to help those whose lives are turned upside down by Brexit...
    Yes but you are an elitist diehard Remainer fanatic with contempt for the Leave voting majority (and I note even you would vote LD rather than risk a Corbyn majority)
    lol - I don't think anyone could call me elitist! I am against Brexit because it will screw the economy. Immigration will continue and the poor will be left to suffer, whilst the rich take more out of society than they give. Brexit is like Trump: Stupidity on stilts. It is like the picture showing the ascent of man from ape to human. Something has gone wrong and as a species we have collectively gone backwards. I will have nothing to do with it...
    You are a diehard Remainer Liberal Democrat voter, face it you are as snobby and elitist as they get politically! Leave voters voted to regain sovereignty and replace free movement with a points system and that is what they will get
    I only started voting LD in the last year. I voted Remain in 2016 and thought I would give Brexit a hearing with regard to deals. I concluded sometime ago that any deal is worse than the one we have inside the EU. The point about Brexit is I object to my life being impacted in fundamental ways by people who dont even understand what the EU is as an entity. My rights, freedoms and opportunities are being removed by this and I object. Brexit is a croc of shit...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534
    IanB2 said:

    BXP looks like a sell

    100% agreed.

    BXP at 0.5 would be a sell!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534

    IanB2 said:

    BXP looks like a sell

    Brave.
    Brave to sell BXP at 4 given Farage's FPTP record? But you'd sell Tories at 301?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894

    IanB2 said:

    BXP looks like a sell

    100% agreed.

    BXP at 0.5 would be a sell!
    You're getting UKIP and BXP mixed up
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,006

    IanB2 said:

    BXP looks like a sell

    Brave.
    Brave to sell BXP at 4 given Farage's FPTP record? But you'd sell Tories at 301?
    It's assymetrical risk-reward. There's a 90% chance that you lose 4. 5% you lose 1-3. And a 5% chance you win 50+ because the Tories have abandonded Brexit in some way.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    BXP looks like a sell

    Brave.
    Brave to sell BXP at 4 given Farage's FPTP record? But you'd sell Tories at 301?
    It's assymetrical risk-reward. There's a 90% chance that you lose 4. 5% you lose 1-3. And a 5% chance you win 50+ because the Tories have abandonded Brexit in some way.

    Hour long special of "The UK" coming up at the end of October.
  • HYUFD said:
    The Independent was effectively a Conservative so I think this can be taken as a good LD result on face value. They seem to be doing well in Somerset. Moggster beware!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534
    edited October 3
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    BXP looks like a sell

    Brave.
    Brave to sell BXP at 4 given Farage's FPTP record? But you'd sell Tories at 301?
    It's assymetrical risk-reward. There's a 90% chance that you lose 4. 5% you lose 1-3. And a 5% chance you win 50+ because the Tories have abandonded Brexit in some way.

    I understand that, but isn't there an even greater chance that the Tories get 350+ than BXP get 50+ ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888

    HYUFD said:
    The Independent was effectively a Conservative so I think this can be taken as a good LD result on face value. They seem to be doing well in Somerset. Moggster beware!
    Swing of 1.8% from Liberal Democrats to the Tories in that by election
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 3,671

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Second from Carolina

    Heard it’s been 100F in NC this week. That is brutal in October.
    Today was the hottest October day ever recorded in N Carolina. I took the dog up into the high mountains but still got drenched in sweat on a shortish hike. I am now in Asheville square having a very good meal as the sun sinks toward sunset in 40 mins time, and it must still be high 20sC
    Was pretty chilly in Westminster today!
    Oh to be a socialist on hols.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,006

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    BXP looks like a sell

    Brave.
    Brave to sell BXP at 4 given Farage's FPTP record? But you'd sell Tories at 301?
    It's assymetrical risk-reward. There's a 90% chance that you lose 4. 5% you lose 1-3. And a 5% chance you win 50+ because the Tories have abandonded Brexit in some way.

    I understand that, but isn't there an even greater chance that the Tories get 350+ than BXP get 50+ ?
    Sure. But imagine the Conservative Party fractures, with 200 MPs marching off to join the Brexit Party. If you'd bought Conservative Seats you could be sitting on a 300+ unit loss. The maximum loss for BXP is - errr - 5.

    Buying Conservative seats has a good chance of a small win, and a small chance of a horrendous loss.

    Buying Brexit seats has a good chance of a small loss, a small chance of an enormous gain.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,607

    HYUFD said:
    The Independent was effectively a Conservative so I think this can be taken as a good LD result on face value. They seem to be doing well in Somerset. Moggster beware!
    Interesting LD squeezing operation going on in that council seat. As you say, the Tories and Mogg should be worried.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,381
    Sleazy broken another independent on the slide

  • isamisam Posts: 28,277

    PaulM said:

    PaulM said:

    IanB2 said:

    BXP looks like a sell

    Brave.
    Agreed. If it was a straight up over/under bet I'd take the under every time, but on spreads you could take a rare beating if the Tories do collapse
    The par result for the Brexit party is between zero and one. If Boris Johnson’s credibility shatters, the Brexit party will get at least 50.
    Agreed. For the same reason, buying or selling Con & Lab are high risk options. LDs are a bit safer because the downside risk is fairly small, but look at their target seats and you can understand why the spread is lower than their polling percentages might suggest.
    I'd be buying Labour at those levels. I just don't see any way Labour go below 205ish. Anything below that means Labour are losing heartland seats in some form of Brexit backlash, so maybe you could cover with a small buy on the BXP.

    Yes, I should have added the proviso that the Labour vote is more resilient and less Brexit obsessed than the Con vote, so buying Lab is a bit less risky but I wouldn't chance it myself.

    I wouldn't buy BXP with counterfeit but as AM and others have indicated, there is always that chance it could mop up the disaffected Tory vote. Even so they are such a disorganised bunch I can't see them converting votes into many seats. Remember UKIP in 2015 - 12% of the vote, no seats. BXP could easily match that next time around.
    UKIPs 12.7% of the vote and one seat in 2015 was probably more to do with variance than a lack of targetting. They were getting 2nd places in seats they barely campaigned in.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    BXP looks like a sell

    Brave.
    Brave to sell BXP at 4 given Farage's FPTP record? But you'd sell Tories at 301?
    It's assymetrical risk-reward. There's a 90% chance that you lose 4. 5% you lose 1-3. And a 5% chance you win 50+ because the Tories have abandonded Brexit in some way.

    I understand that, but isn't there an even greater chance that the Tories get 350+ than BXP get 50+ ?
    Sure. But imagine the Conservative Party fractures, with 200 MPs marching off to join the Brexit Party. If you'd bought Conservative Seats you could be sitting on a 300+ unit loss. The maximum loss for BXP is - errr - 5.

    Buying Conservative seats has a good chance of a small win, and a small chance of a horrendous loss.

    Buying Brexit seats has a good chance of a small loss, a small chance of an enormous gain.
    I understand thanks.

    Though if there is a perfect storm for the Tories and we see a 40/20/20 election result resulting in a 1931-style election result then even a sell on the Tories can have a chance of a horrendous loss.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 8,272

    Sleazy broken another independent on the slide

    Not looking great for team Trotsky is it
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,006

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    BXP looks like a sell

    Brave.
    Brave to sell BXP at 4 given Farage's FPTP record? But you'd sell Tories at 301?
    It's assymetrical risk-reward. There's a 90% chance that you lose 4. 5% you lose 1-3. And a 5% chance you win 50+ because the Tories have abandonded Brexit in some way.

    I understand that, but isn't there an even greater chance that the Tories get 350+ than BXP get 50+ ?
    Sure. But imagine the Conservative Party fractures, with 200 MPs marching off to join the Brexit Party. If you'd bought Conservative Seats you could be sitting on a 300+ unit loss. The maximum loss for BXP is - errr - 5.

    Buying Conservative seats has a good chance of a small win, and a small chance of a horrendous loss.

    Buying Brexit seats has a good chance of a small loss, a small chance of an enormous gain.
    I understand thanks.

    Though if there is a perfect storm for the Tories and we see a 40/20/20 election result resulting in a 1931-style election result then even a sell on the Tories can have a chance of a horrendous loss.
    Can I suggest that a decent strategy is to buy BXP and Conservatives. If the Conservatives nail it and get 375 (not an unlikely outcome, and not even thierbest result), then the 309 is a big winner, and the 5.5 a small loser.

    If the Conservatives collapse, and the BXP rises, well, you'll probably be out of pocket but not massively.

    The risk - really - is that Brexit happens but that the UK enters a recession, and in 2022 the voters are punishing you for the recession but not rewarding you for delivering Brexit. And that's a non-trivial chance.
  • isam said:

    PaulM said:

    PaulM said:

    IanB2 said:

    BXP looks like a sell

    Brave.
    Agreed. If it was a straight up over/under bet I'd take the under every time, but on spreads you could take a rare beating if the Tories do collapse
    The par result for the Brexit party is between zero and one. If Boris Johnson’s credibility shatters, the Brexit party will get at least 50.
    Agreed. For the same reason, buying or selling Con & Lab are high risk options. LDs are a bit safer because the downside risk is fairly small, but look at their target seats and you can understand why the spread is lower than their polling percentages might suggest.
    I'd be buying Labour at those levels. I just don't see any way Labour go below 205ish. Anything below that means Labour are losing heartland seats in some form of Brexit backlash, so maybe you could cover with a small buy on the BXP.

    Yes, I should have added the proviso that the Labour vote is more resilient and less Brexit obsessed than the Con vote, so buying Lab is a bit less risky but I wouldn't chance it myself.

    I wouldn't buy BXP with counterfeit but as AM and others have indicated, there is always that chance it could mop up the disaffected Tory vote. Even so they are such a disorganised bunch I can't see them converting votes into many seats. Remember UKIP in 2015 - 12% of the vote, no seats. BXP could easily match that next time around.
    UKIPs 12.7% of the vote and one seat in 2015 was probably more to do with variance than a lack of targetting. They were getting 2nd places in seats they barely campaigned in.
    It surprised me we didn't hear more about that. I'd be really peed off if the Party I voted for got 13% of the vote nationally and 0% of the seats.
  • isamisam Posts: 28,277
    edited October 4

    isam said:

    PaulM said:

    PaulM said:

    IanB2 said:

    BXP looks like a sell

    Brave.
    Agreed. If it was a straight up over/under bet I'd take the under every time, but on spreads you could take a rare beating if the Tories do collapse
    The par result for the Brexit party is between zero and one. If Boris Johnson’s credibility shatters, the Brexit party will get at least 50.
    Agreed. For the same reason, buying or selling Con & Lab are high risk options. LDs are a bit safer because the downside risk is fairly small, but look at their target seats and you can understand why the spread is lower than their polling percentages might suggest.
    I'd be buying Labour at those levels. I just don't see any way Labour go below 205ish. Anything below that means Labour are losing heartland seats in some form of Brexit backlash, so maybe you could cover with a small buy on the BXP.

    Yes, I should have added the proviso that the Labour vote is more resilient and less Brexit obsessed than the Con vote, so buying Lab is a bit less risky but I wouldn't chance it myself.

    I wouldn't buy BXP with counterfeit but as AM and others have indicated, there is always that chance it could mop up the disaffected Tory vote. Even so they are such a disorganised bunch I can't see them converting votes into many seats. Remember UKIP in 2015 - 12% of the vote, no seats. BXP could easily match that next time around.
    UKIPs 12.7% of the vote and one seat in 2015 was probably more to do with variance than a lack of targetting. They were getting 2nd places in seats they barely campaigned in.
    It surprised me we didn't hear more about that. I'd be really peed off if the Party I voted for got 13% of the vote nationally and 0% of the seats.
    I mention it quite a lot!

    I think it led to the chaos we have now, because had UKIP got half a dozen seats, possibly holding the balance of power, their MPs would have been expected to come up with some kind of realistic plan for Leave. But, because they were the nasty party, and it suited the establishment to ignore the ludicrous situation of Douglas Carswell representing 1/6th of the nation in the commons, it lulled them into forgetting that almost 13% voted UKIP not the 0.15% as represented in the HofC, which in turn led to Remain over confidence, thanks to the echo chamber effect
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    PaulM said:

    PaulM said:

    IanB2 said:

    BXP looks like a sell

    Brave.
    Agreed. If it was a straight up over/under bet I'd take the under every time, but on spreads you could take a rare beating if the Tories do collapse
    The par result for the Brexit party is between zero and one. If Boris Johnson’s credibility shatters, the Brexit party will get at least 50.
    Agreed. For the same reason, buying or selling Con & Lab are high risk options. LDs are a bit safer because the downside risk is fairly small, but look at their target seats and you can understand why the spread is lower than their polling percentages might suggest.
    I'd be buying Labour at those levels. I just don't see any way Labour go below 205ish. Anything below that means Labour are losing heartland seats in some form of Brexit backlash, so maybe you could cover with a small buy on the BXP.

    Yes, I should have added the proviso that the Labour vote is more resilient and less Brexit obsessed than the Con vote, so buying Lab is a bit less risky but I wouldn't chance it myself.

    I wouldn't buy BXP with counterfeit but as AM and others have indicated, there is always that chance it could mop up the disaffected Tory vote. Even so they are such a disorganised bunch I can't see them converting votes into many seats. Remember UKIP in 2015 - 12% of the vote, no seats. BXP could easily match that next time around.
    UKIPs 12.7% of the vote and one seat in 2015 was probably more to do with variance than a lack of targetting. They were getting 2nd places in seats they barely campaigned in.
    It surprised me we didn't hear more about that. I'd be really peed off if the Party I voted for got 13% of the vote nationally and 0% of the seats.
    I mention it quite a lot!

    I think it led to the chaos we have now, because had UKIP got half a dozen seats, possibly holding the balance of power, their MPs would have been expected to come up with some kind of realistic plan for Leave. But, because they were the nasty party, and it suited the establishment to ignore the ludicrous situation of Douglas Carswell representing 1/6th of the nation in the commons, it lulled them into forgetting that almost 13% voted UKIP not the 0.15% as represented in the HofC
    Preaching to the converted here, Isam.

    There's much that needs changing about our politics. Personally I would start with the voting system.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534
    edited October 4
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    BXP looks like a sell

    Brave.
    Brave to sell BXP at 4 given Farage's FPTP record? But you'd sell Tories at 301?
    It's assymetrical risk-reward. There's a 90% chance that you lose 4. 5% you lose 1-3. And a 5% chance you win 50+ because the Tories have abandonded Brexit in some way.

    I understand that, but isn't there an even greater chance that the Tories get 350+ than BXP get 50+ ?
    Sure. But imagine the Conservative Party fractures, with 200 MPs marching off to join the Brexit Party. If you'd bought Conservative Seats you could be sitting on a 300+ unit loss. The maximum loss for BXP is - errr - 5.

    Buying Conservative seats has a good chance of a small win, and a small chance of a horrendous loss.

    Buying Brexit seats has a good chance of a small loss, a small chance of an enormous gain.
    I understand thanks.

    Though if there is a perfect storm for the Tories and we see a 40/20/20 election result resulting in a 1931-style election result then even a sell on the Tories can have a chance of a horrendous loss.
    Can I suggest that a decent strategy is to buy BXP and Conservatives. If the Conservatives nail it and get 375 (not an unlikely outcome, and not even thierbest result), then the 309 is a big winner, and the 5.5 a small loser.

    If the Conservatives collapse, and the BXP rises, well, you'll probably be out of pocket but not massively.

    The risk - really - is that Brexit happens but that the UK enters a recession, and in 2022 the voters are punishing you for the recession but not rewarding you for delivering Brexit. And that's a non-trivial chance.
    That seems like a decent hedge. Though I still have a stubborn feeling I can't see BXP beating 0.5.

    I would consider combining that bet with a small hedge betting on Labour 300-up on 3+ . . . if the Tories win big you lose 3x your stake which should be a small loss, but if Labour change leaders and clean up at the next election then you could massively win which should provide insurance against the Conservative collapse bet.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 12,207
    HYUFD said:



    Swing 2.75% Labour to Tory in Cardiff as well

    Vote PC or LD get Tory.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,006
    Biden is struggling to raise money: https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/03/joe-biden-campaign-third-quarter-fundraising-026553

    He's behind Sanders (who will be leaving the race due to having recently had a heart attack) and Buttigieg
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,995
    edited October 4

    HYUFD said:



    Swing 2.75% Labour to Tory in Cardiff as well

    Vote PC or LD get Tory.
    No, they just need to put up one proper Remain candidate between them and the Greens, and then just a tiny handful of Labour voters switching over would defeat the Tory. Labour isn’t going to be making gains from the Tories so voting for them, other than in Labour held seats, is a waste of time. As this result clearly demonstrates.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,006
    Odds you couldn't make up.

    Why is Nikki Halley the same odds as Mike Pence to be next President?

    Why is Hillary Clinton lower odds than either, when she isn't running and wouldn't win even if she did?

    For anyone who doesn't mind locking money up for a while, I'd sell Hillary, 'cause in three or four months, after she's got a solid zero delegates in Iowa and New Hampshire she'll be 999-1.

    Next question: why is Andrew Yang the same odds as Pete Buttigieg or Bernie Sanders for next President? He's polling behind - oohhhh... - the entire Democratic field in Iowa, and not much better than that in New Hampshire. He can be solidly sold without risk. The move from 27-1 to 999-1 will also take just four months.

    Amy Klobachar: now I've been rude to the usually eminently sensible @edmundintokyo about her in the past. But she's now 150-1 for the Democratic nomination. She's in the next debate. She lives in a state that borders Iowa. If Biden stumbles over the whole Hunter in Ukraine thing... well, maybe she benefits. OK, she probably won't benefit. But she's 150-1. That's a third the price of someone who definitely won't get the nomination. (I would point out that in one poll last month she was only a point behind Sanders in Iowa.) She has to be worth a small sum - say £10 - here.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,035
    edited October 4
    egg said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    That swing from Labour to a proper remain party is what makes the next GE so unpredictable
    Green surely picking up moderate remainery Tory’s too?

    I for one don’t believe the brexit and Tory party poll total are one and same thing nor labour and green totals. All this year we have seen greens do electorally well in Tory areas mopping up Tory remainers.

    Has Boris mum had anything to say about being in that conference speech? Isn’t she the only Labour voter in the family? It was a big cheer at conference but maybe she voted leave for same reason as Corbyn and many of his union friends: EU is pro business and anti socialist revolution. A leave voter doesn’t mean a convert at the next Boris rally you know
    Syston is not so far from me. It is quite a pleasant little Leicester suburb. Middle income with some Asian families who have drifted out from the City itself. Quite a few Poles too dating back to the resettlement camp here in the postwar period. Charnwood Council is usually true blue, but there is one Green already. Not natural Labour territory.

    Brexit may have been a factor, but local Green issues are big too. The area is low lying and nearby Sileby and Cossington made the national news this week with flooding. The council has planned a lot of new housing here too.

    It is home to "Syston White" plums, which are an endangered indigenous variety that grows well in clay soil here. Very tasty, but not grown commercially due to erratic yields. Some years the trees are covered, other years only a half dozen plums. I have a tree in my front garden.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,381
    rcs1000 said:


    Next question: why is Andrew Yang the same odds as Pete Buttigieg or Bernie Sanders for next President? He's polling behind - oohhhh... - the entire Democratic field in Iowa, and not much better than that in New Hampshire. He can be solidly sold without risk. The move from 27-1 to 999-1 will also take just four months.

    Yup, they should relabel that "Lay" button Universal Basic Income
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,381
    edited October 4
    rcs1000 said:


    Amy Klobachar: now I've been rude to the usually eminently sensible @edmundintokyo about her in the past. But she's now 150-1 for the Democratic nomination. She's in the next debate. She lives in a state that borders Iowa. If Biden stumbles over the whole Hunter in Ukraine thing... well, maybe she benefits. OK, she probably won't benefit. But she's 150-1. That's a third the price of someone who definitely won't get the nomination. (I would point out that in one poll last month she was only a point behind Sanders in Iowa.) She has to be worth a small sum - say £10 - here.

    Agree with that. Baemy has an ad up in Iowa made on the premise that the voters aren't completely nuts, and want to vote for someone who isn't completely nuts. Which is a nice idea, but it feels like too much of a niche to win. Still, if Biden falls over, who knows.

  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,546
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:



    Swing 2.75% Labour to Tory in Cardiff as well

    Vote PC or LD get Tory.
    No, they just need to put up one proper Remain candidate between them and the Greens, and then just a tiny handful of Labour voters switching over would defeat the Tory. Labour isn’t going to be making gains from the Tories so voting for them, other than in Labour held seats, is a waste of time. As this result clearly demonstrates.
    Makes sense, it isn't as if they are different parties with different views and voters who want different things. Right wing Plaid Cymru voters could well vote Conservative and left wing Green voters Labour instead of the joint Lib Dem candidate.

    If it is just about Brexit then Labour, PC and the Greens have the same policy (or end result) of a referendum. Easier to boost Labour over the line than the Lib Dems.

    Besides how would PC and Green voters know they are not putting more meatloaf remainer Lib Dems who will go for no deal rather than work with Labour?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,229
    Foxy said:

    egg said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    That swing from Labour to a proper remain party is what makes the next GE so unpredictable
    Green surely picking up moderate remainery Tory’s too?

    I for one don’t believe the brexit and Tory party poll total are one and same thing nor labour and green totals. All this year we have seen greens do electorally well in Tory areas mopping up Tory remainers.

    Has Boris mum had anything to say about being in that conference speech? Isn’t she the only Labour voter in the family? It was a big cheer at conference but maybe she voted leave for same reason as Corbyn and many of his union friends: EU is pro business and anti socialist revolution. A leave voter doesn’t mean a convert at the next Boris rally you know


    It is home to "Syston White" plums, which are an endangered indigenous variety that grows well in clay soil here. Very tasty, but not grown commercially due to erratic yields. Some years the trees are covered, other years only a half dozen plums. I have a tree in my front garden.

    Aren't most varieties of plums like that? Feast, Good,, Feast, then Famine, then back to Feast again
This discussion has been closed.