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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters rate Johnson’s chances of taking the UK out of the EU

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited October 4 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters rate Johnson’s chances of taking the UK out of the EU by the end of the month at 26%

The big Brexit betting market as seen above in the betdata.io chart is whether Johnson will achieve his objective of an October 31st exit as per the Article 50 deadline.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418
    What if we have retrospective legislation that says we left on 31st October?
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,786
    Over the years, has a judiciously interpreted betting market been a better predictor of outcomes than polls?
  • Jimbo74Jimbo74 Posts: 6
    I often laugh at Trumps ridiculous tweets and pronoucements but the latest tweets abusing people are just those of an internet troll plain and simple. Bonkers.
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,786
    Jimbo74 said:

    I often laugh at Trumps ridiculous tweets and pronoucements but the latest tweets abusing people are just those of an internet troll plain and simple. Bonkers.

    https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/trumptroll/trump-troll-doll-sculpture-by-chuck-williams
  • Jimbo74Jimbo74 Posts: 6
    i just wonder sometimes and watching his press conference yesterday whether its all just a "donald trump persona" and he's actually like that in reality, or just a part he's playing.

    surely no one can be that completely barking mad? it's like he's suffered some sort of brain injury.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,468
    Jimbo74 said:

    i just wonder sometimes and watching his press conference yesterday whether its all just a "donald trump persona" and he's actually like that in reality, or just a part he's playing.

    surely no one can be that completely barking mad? it's like he's suffered some sort of brain injury.

    Really? The press conference looked to me like rational, and rationally expressed, anger (whether it was justified is another matter of course). What was mad about saying the question had already been answered and was irrelevant to the press conference? And how insane is it to say there's corruption in the US press?
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,223
    The repeal of the 1972 act on its own would count, yes?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,481
    I agree on all of that except the transition bit.

    The transition is a bespoke (new) treaty agreement with an ex member state, so it a Deal was passed by both the UK and EU, A50 expires, we’re no longer a member of the EU and we entered it it would certainly count as a YES.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 472
    Toms said:

    Over the years, has a judiciously interpreted betting market been a better predictor of outcomes than polls?

    Quite the opposite on a number of occasions.

    Trump and Brexit being two examples.

    And 2015 as I recall.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 1,137
    People whose opinion I trust (ie not PB BoJo fanboys) think the chances of us leaving on Oct 31 are pretty minimal.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,381
    SunnyJim said:

    Toms said:

    Over the years, has a judiciously interpreted betting market been a better predictor of outcomes than polls?

    Quite the opposite on a number of occasions.

    Trump and Brexit being two examples.

    And 2015 as I recall.
    Trump was polling behind pretty consistently, *especially* in the polls of the swing states that eventually won him the race. So I'd say the markets and the polls were equally wrong about that.

    My memory for Brexit was that there were quite a few polls showing Leave leads, but what the markets thought (from historical performance) were the better ones were showing leads for Remain. I'm not sure what the polling averages would have shown - I guess it would depend on how you did the averaging.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,339
    Good morning, everyone.

    Extension still seems the likeliest result.

    Pro-EU MPs need to decide what they want to do after that, if it happens, though.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,381
    edited October 4
    On topic, a fun possibility is that the UK requests an extension and the EU grants one, but ministers sulkily refuse to produce the appropriate statutory instrument that notifies UK law of this, so the 1972 European Communities Act has been repealed, but as far as international law is concerned the country is still in the EU.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,957
    edited October 4

    On topic, a fun possibility is that the UK requests an extension and the EU grants one, but ministers sulkily refuse to produce the appropriate statutory instrument that notifies UK law of this, so the 1972 European Communities Act has been repealed, but as far as international law is concerned the country is still in the EU.

    Won’t work. The Benn act amended the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 to state that the Minister of the Crown must change the date to match the extension.

    It used to say ‘may’. It now says ‘must’.

    See s.20(4) http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2018/16/section/20
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,381

    On topic, a fun possibility is that the UK requests an extension and the EU grants one, but ministers sulkily refuse to produce the appropriate statutory instrument that notifies UK law of this, so the 1972 European Communities Act has been repealed, but as far as international law is concerned the country is still in the EU.

    Won’t work. The Benn act amended the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 to state that the Minister of the Crown must change the date to match the extension.

    It used to say ‘may’. It now says ‘must’.

    See s.20(4) http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2018/16/section/20
    Dammit, can't get any sneaky way to win a bet past that guy
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,935
    Quite astonishing to see the latest Trump news on Ukraine .

    He’s so debased the office of President but much of the American public has been desensitized to his disgraceful behaviour.

    Many will just shrug and think whatever !

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,516
    edited October 4
    Wait the "Warren affair" story is coming from perpetual conman Jacob Wohl?

    Get the fuck out of here, why the fuck is anyone on here giving it a shred of time?

  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,511

    What if we have retrospective legislation that says we left on 31st October?

    Roughly the same impact as retrospective legislation that we won this Summer’s Ashes, at a guess.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,951
    edited October 4
    Are the chances of us leaving on 31st October really as high as 26%? Let's suppose that the EU are secretly much keener on having a deal than they are letting on, that Boris actually wants one, that his text yesterday is broadly agreed during the current week and then endorsed at the leaders conference, that he can somehow get Parliament to agree it, that the EU Parliament doesn't veto it, that I win the lottery, twice, (is this really necessary? ed) and universal peace becomes so endemic that even the DUP get cuddly.

    Don't we still need a technical extension to put through legislation that the government has been too scared to table until now? I think we would but I suppose if everything was rushed through, I mean its not as if Parliament is chock full of people who think this is the worst idea since Eve asked Adam if he fancied a bite, is it?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,935
    tpfkar said:

    What if we have retrospective legislation that says we left on 31st October?

    Roughly the same impact as retrospective legislation that we won this Summer’s Ashes, at a guess.
    Lmao ! Great post .
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307
    A bet on leaving by 31 October is now really a bet on a no deal Brexit. There simply isn’t time to conclude all the detail of a deal before then.

    The odds look fair to me.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418
    edited October 4
    tpfkar said:

    What if we have retrospective legislation that says we left on 31st October?

    Roughly the same impact as retrospective legislation that we won this Summer’s Ashes, at a guess.
    It's just that section 20(1) of the European (Withdrawal) Act 2018 says

    “retrospective provision”, in relation to provision made by regulations, means provision taking effect from a date earlier than the date on which the regulations are made;

    and I was idly wondering how that might be applicable to the bets referenced in the thread header.

    Still feel so smug?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,951

    A bet on leaving by 31 October is now really a bet on a no deal Brexit. There simply isn’t time to conclude all the detail of a deal before then.

    The odds look fair to me.

    The only way I can see that we leave with no deal is if the EU are asked for an extension and say no. Exasperation is mounting but that is not a 26% chance.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,935
    Pensioners set to lose their healthcare in the EU after 6 months in the event of no deal .

    And to think some of them voted Brexit , I think the award for turkey voting for Christmas must go to one of them interviewed who said when she voted to Leave she didn’t realize it would effect her rights in Spain .

    WTF did she think would happen .Aswell as this I really can’t stand Leavers who live in EU countries and think they’re something special whilst moaning about immigration into the UK .

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,035
    Alistair said:

    Wait the "Warren affair" story is coming from perpetual conman Jacob Wohl?

    Get the fuck out of here, why the fuck is anyone on here giving it a shred of time?

    This is a classic tweet from Warren, I think she is laughing at these smears!

  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 29
    Good morning all.

    If we leave with no deal on 31 October the MPs who voted for the Benn Act will bear much of the responsibility. As the clock ticks down the EU would be trying much harder to get a deal done now if the Benn Act did not exist.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 7,418

    What if we have retrospective legislation that says we left on 31st October?

    Can't the 'clock' be stopped - I'm sure that's happened before.
    Maybe for 6 months or so.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307
    Alistair said:

    Wait the "Warren affair" story is coming from perpetual conman Jacob Wohl?

    Get the fuck out of here, why the fuck is anyone on here giving it a shred of time?

    Elizabeth Warren will sweep the country with those types of rumours.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,951
    nico67 said:

    Pensioners set to lose their healthcare in the EU after 6 months in the event of no deal .

    And to think some of them voted Brexit , I think the award for turkey voting for Christmas must go to one of them interviewed who said when she voted to Leave she didn’t realize it would effect her rights in Spain .

    WTF did she think would happen .Aswell as this I really can’t stand Leavers who live in EU countries and think they’re something special whilst moaning about immigration into the UK .

    Not correct according to the government website. If we leave without a deal the UK and Spain have already agreed that existing residents will qualify for health care until at least December 2020: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/living-in-spain#healthcare
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,481

    A bet on leaving by 31 October is now really a bet on a no deal Brexit. There simply isn’t time to conclude all the detail of a deal before then.

    The odds look fair to me.

    It's a bet on a No Deal Brexit by October 31. No Deal after a delay is also possible. Agree there is minimal chance of a deal by then, and not much before the end of the year.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,401

    Alistair said:

    Wait the "Warren affair" story is coming from perpetual conman Jacob Wohl?

    Get the fuck out of here, why the fuck is anyone on here giving it a shred of time?

    Elizabeth Warren will sweep the country with those types of rumours.
    Looks like a very early "Swift Boat" campaign.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 3,097
    nico67 said:

    Pensioners set to lose their healthcare in the EU after 6 months in the event of no deal .

    And to think some of them voted Brexit , I think the award for turkey voting for Christmas must go to one of them interviewed who said when she voted to Leave she didn’t realize it would effect her rights in Spain .

    WTF did she think would happen .Aswell as this I really can’t stand Leavers who live in EU countries and think they’re something special whilst moaning about immigration into the UK .

    I’m sure Spanish government has promised health care to end of 2020 regardless of outcome and I would guess something would be sorted out in the meantime. The impact on the housing market and coastal economies would be significant and the impact on the NHS would be significant. Yes there were idiots out here who voted leave but it’s surprising how many have now got Irish passports. I’m not cancelling my health insurance though, even though I now use the Spanish system, until I know what is happening 100%.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 656
    Alistair said:

    Wait the "Warren affair" story is coming from perpetual conman Jacob Wohl?

    Get the fuck out of here, why the fuck is anyone on here giving it a shred of time?

    Because the right-wing-o-sphere has lost any capability they had of judging evidence fairly since Brexit and Trump, leading to partisan hackery at all points?

    But it is a hilarious story.

    https://splinternews.com/worlds-biggest-dipshits-hilariously-mangle-hit-job-on-e-1838750767
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 13,120
    Belated reply to Richard Tyndall - no, Broadgate Park is IIRC just outside Broxtowe (and in Nottingham South, though the approach road Broadgate is. There are a few student blocks in Beeston, but the main university influence is masses of lecturers, research workers and other staff - traditionally very strongly Labour.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,546
    148grss said:

    Alistair said:

    Wait the "Warren affair" story is coming from perpetual conman Jacob Wohl?

    Get the fuck out of here, why the fuck is anyone on here giving it a shred of time?

    Because the right-wing-o-sphere has lost any capability they had of judging evidence fairly since Brexit and Trump, leading to partisan hackery at all points?

    But it is a hilarious story.

    https://splinternews.com/worlds-biggest-dipshits-hilariously-mangle-hit-job-on-e-1838750767
    Most of them aren't that stupid, they knowingly promote it.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 12,207

    What if we have retrospective legislation that says we left on 31st October?

    Can't the 'clock' be stopped - I'm sure that's happened before.
    Maybe for 6 months or so.
    Prorogue the World Clock
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 953

    Belated reply to Richard Tyndall - no, Broadgate Park is IIRC just outside Broxtowe (and in Nottingham South, though the approach road Broadgate is. There are a few student blocks in Beeston, but the main university influence is masses of lecturers, research workers and other staff - traditionally very strongly Labour.

    Is that different to Bradgate Park?
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 656
    edited October 4

    148grss said:

    Alistair said:

    Wait the "Warren affair" story is coming from perpetual conman Jacob Wohl?

    Get the fuck out of here, why the fuck is anyone on here giving it a shred of time?

    Because the right-wing-o-sphere has lost any capability they had of judging evidence fairly since Brexit and Trump, leading to partisan hackery at all points?

    But it is a hilarious story.

    https://splinternews.com/worlds-biggest-dipshits-hilariously-mangle-hit-job-on-e-1838750767
    Most of them aren't that stupid, they knowingly promote it.
    The marine and Wohl can't even keep straight faces throughout this, which makes it even more hilarious when they complain that the reporters are laughing at them. And that the security guard doesn't listen to Wohl at all.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,381
    I guess I'm late to this but you have to admire the polling jujitsu of whoever designed these questions. Check out what they did with the whole "people vs parliament" narrative:

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    Wait the "Warren affair" story is coming from perpetual conman Jacob Wohl?

    Get the fuck out of here, why the fuck is anyone on here giving it a shred of time?

    This is a classic tweet from Warren, I think she is laughing at these smears!

    I assume the California based Cleggs will not be supporting Warren then
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    edited October 4

    I guess I'm late to this but you have to admire the polling jujitsu of whoever designed these questions. Check out what they did with the whole "people vs parliament" narrative:

    Well given there is far more support for Brexit and No Deal amongst the public than amongst MPs no surprise
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,200
    Alistair said:

    Wait the "Warren affair" story is coming from perpetual conman Jacob Wohl?

    Get the fuck out of here, why the fuck is anyone on here giving it a shred of time?

    Because it is the reductio ad absurdam of Trump's bullshit weaponisation ?

    There's a good article here which lays out how it usually goes, and why he might finally have jumped the shark.
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/10/trump-ukraine-scandal-playbook-finally-not-working.html

    ... there’s something about this one that is not well served by the usual Trump dismissal of his wrongdoing. Part of Donald Trump’s seeming immunity to consequences comes from the fact that he has a singular, predictable response to being caught out: He first denies that it happened, and then, faced with proof that it did—or in the case of Ukraine, having himself hand-delivered the proof that it did—he admits having done it, but then argues that it’s perfectly cool, perfectly legal, and not that big of a deal. And that everyone does it and that people should do it more. It’s uncanny but it never fails him. From “Russia, if you’re listening” to “I don’t pay taxes because I’m smart,” the play is to rope-a-dope the public into believe we’re the idiots for abiding by the rules....

    ...Maybe this time feels different because, well, they are exceptionally bad at this one. Or maybe it feels different because the bombshells are coming from whistleblowers and inspectors general who were silent until they couldn’t be. Or maybe it feels different because no matter how you spin it, the president appears to be losing his shit. But maybe it just feels different because this time Donald Trump looks weak and pathetic. It’s not like the other nonscandals, when he didn’t pay his taxes and told people he was smart, or when he treated women like garbage and told people he was sexy, or when he profited from the businesses from which he refused to divest himself and told people he was just too fantastic a businessman, or even when he destroyed the lives of immigrants and asylum-seekers and told people he was tough.

    No, this time, even as he admits to the impeachable act and says it’s what smart people do, he mostly looks nuts. He looks like a desperate man chasing an imaginary enemy—not his political opponent but his opponent’s son—around the globe, firing ambassadors, plotting with Paul Manafort, shaking down the Australians and the Italians and begging the Chinese to get in on the action, all because he’s hell-bent on destroying a political opponent who isn’t even his opponent yet.


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    edited October 4
    Voters agree with punters it seems we will not leave on 31st October but Leave voters do not blame Boris.

    78% of Brexit Party voters do not blame Boris, even higher than the 73% of current Tory voters who do not blame Boris



  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 20,384

    On topic, a fun possibility is that the UK requests an extension and the EU grants one, but ministers sulkily refuse to produce the appropriate statutory instrument that notifies UK law of this, so the 1972 European Communities Act has been repealed, but as far as international law is concerned the country is still in the EU.

    Won’t work. The Benn act amended the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 to state that the Minister of the Crown must change the date to match the extension.

    It used to say ‘may’. It now says ‘must’.

    See s.20(4) http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2018/16/section/20
    Your new vocation paying off already, it seems.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492
    DavidL said:


    Don't we still need a technical extension to put through legislation that the government has been too scared to table until now?

    I think that, since the transition is "nothing has changed", there might be a way to pass something simple to that effect with a promise to fill in the details retrospectively.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 20,384
    DavidL said:

    Are the chances of us leaving on 31st October really as high as 26%? Let's suppose that the EU are secretly much keener on having a deal than they are letting on, that Boris actually wants one, that his text yesterday is broadly agreed during the current week and then endorsed at the leaders conference, that he can somehow get Parliament to agree it, that the EU Parliament doesn't veto it, that I win the lottery, twice, (is this really necessary? ed) and universal peace becomes so endemic that even the DUP get cuddly.

    Don't we still need a technical extension to put through legislation that the government has been too scared to table until now? I think we would but I suppose if everything was rushed through, I mean its not as if Parliament is chock full of people who think this is the worst idea since Eve asked Adam if he fancied a bite, is it?

    It's one of those what would you do if you saw a battleship coming over that hill teasers.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,957
    HYUFD said:

    Voters agree with punters it seems but Leave voters do not blame Boris.

    78% of Brexit Party voters do not blame Boris, even higher than the 73% of current Tory voters who do not blame Boris



    36% blaming Boris is significant.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,481

    I guess I'm late to this but you have to admire the polling jujitsu of whoever designed these questions. Check out what they did with the whole "people vs parliament" narrative:

    I agree the questions are a little leading, but they highlight a problem for the government with its People (ie Johnson) versus MPs rhetoric. It depends on those MPs to get Brexit through without a second referendum.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,957
    TOPPING said:

    On topic, a fun possibility is that the UK requests an extension and the EU grants one, but ministers sulkily refuse to produce the appropriate statutory instrument that notifies UK law of this, so the 1972 European Communities Act has been repealed, but as far as international law is concerned the country is still in the EU.

    Won’t work. The Benn act amended the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 to state that the Minister of the Crown must change the date to match the extension.

    It used to say ‘may’. It now says ‘must’.

    See s.20(4) http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2018/16/section/20
    Your new vocation paying off already, it seems.
    Haha! Thank you!
    This is all good practice ;)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 20,384
    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    Pensioners set to lose their healthcare in the EU after 6 months in the event of no deal .

    And to think some of them voted Brexit , I think the award for turkey voting for Christmas must go to one of them interviewed who said when she voted to Leave she didn’t realize it would effect her rights in Spain .

    WTF did she think would happen .Aswell as this I really can’t stand Leavers who live in EU countries and think they’re something special whilst moaning about immigration into the UK .

    Not correct according to the government website. If we leave without a deal the UK and Spain have already agreed that existing residents will qualify for health care until at least December 2020: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/living-in-spain#healthcare
    That might be all that's needed for some of them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,200
    The revelations continue;
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/oct/04/us-diplomats-told-zelenskiy-ukraine-trump-visit-was-dependent-on-biden-statement-text-investigation
    US diplomats told Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, that a prestigious White House visit to meet Donald Trump was dependent on him making a public statement vowing to investigate Hunter Biden’s company, and a Ukrainian role in the 2016 elections, according to texts released on Thursday night....

    If Trump is not impeached, then the US is a country without law.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888

    HYUFD said:

    Voters agree with punters it seems but Leave voters do not blame Boris.

    78% of Brexit Party voters do not blame Boris, even higher than the 73% of current Tory voters who do not blame Boris



    36% blaming Boris is significant.
    Not at all, far more Remainers blame Corbyn for being insufficiently committed to stop Brexit than Leavers blame Boris for not doing enough to deliver Brexit.

    Those are great numbers for Boris
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,314
    HYUFD posts support the idea that it’s now all about the blame game.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 656
    edited October 4
    HYUFD said:
    As someone from a nearby ward, this is pretty much what I expected (indeed, I don't think any of the parties even campaigned for this by election because it is such a safe LD seat). I'm currently finding it interesting that even good polls for Tories put through models give St Albans as a LD gain in a GE.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 20,384
    HYUFD said:

    Voters agree with punters it seems we will not leave on 31st October but Leave voters do not blame Boris.

    78% of Brexit Party voters do not blame Boris, even higher than the 73% of current Tory voters who do not blame Boris



    One leave voter in particular will blame Boris.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 3,097
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    Pensioners set to lose their healthcare in the EU after 6 months in the event of no deal .

    And to think some of them voted Brexit , I think the award for turkey voting for Christmas must go to one of them interviewed who said when she voted to Leave she didn’t realize it would effect her rights in Spain .

    WTF did she think would happen .Aswell as this I really can’t stand Leavers who live in EU countries and think they’re something special whilst moaning about immigration into the UK .

    Not correct according to the government website. If we leave without a deal the UK and Spain have already agreed that existing residents will qualify for health care until at least December 2020: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/living-in-spain#healthcare
    That might be all that's needed for some of them.
    Now now that’s a little naughty, but true
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,701
    edited October 4
    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    Pensioners set to lose their healthcare in the EU after 6 months in the event of no deal .

    And to think some of them voted Brexit , I think the award for turkey voting for Christmas must go to one of them interviewed who said when she voted to Leave she didn’t realize it would effect her rights in Spain .

    WTF did she think would happen .Aswell as this I really can’t stand Leavers who live in EU countries and think they’re something special whilst moaning about immigration into the UK .

    Not correct according to the government website. If we leave without a deal the UK and Spain have already agreed that existing residents will qualify for health care until at least December 2020: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/living-in-spain#healthcare

    The Spanish government has recently said that all arrangements must be reciprocal. It is currently not convinced that the UK is guaranteeing Spanish citizens’ rights.

    https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/09/23/inenglish/1569214269_989612.html

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492
    I'm sure that when Musk wants to dig a hole he has an advanced prototype hole-digging machine that will do an exceptional job.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,957
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Voters agree with punters it seems but Leave voters do not blame Boris.

    78% of Brexit Party voters do not blame Boris, even higher than the 73% of current Tory voters who do not blame Boris



    36% blaming Boris is significant.
    Not at all, far more Remainers blame Corbyn for being insufficiently committed to stop Brexit than Leavers blame Boris for not doing enough to deliver Brexit.

    Those are great numbers for Boris
    But Remainers blaming Corbyn for not being sufficiently ‘Remain’ is already priced in.

    All Boris has is his ‘die in a ditch’ rhetoric. If even 10% of his voters move to BXP or don’t vote then everything is in play.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,951
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    Pensioners set to lose their healthcare in the EU after 6 months in the event of no deal .

    And to think some of them voted Brexit , I think the award for turkey voting for Christmas must go to one of them interviewed who said when she voted to Leave she didn’t realize it would effect her rights in Spain .

    WTF did she think would happen .Aswell as this I really can’t stand Leavers who live in EU countries and think they’re something special whilst moaning about immigration into the UK .

    Not correct according to the government website. If we leave without a deal the UK and Spain have already agreed that existing residents will qualify for health care until at least December 2020: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/living-in-spain#healthcare
    That might be all that's needed for some of them.
    Lol. But in reality deal or no deal is going to make very little difference to this as things stand at the moment because with a deal the arrangements presently remain in place for transition period.

    It is just an example of how these supposedly insuperable problems disappear. Who can doubt that the UK and Spain will agree to continue these mutually beneficial arrangements post 2020? All that is needed is clarity about what the structure in which that agreement will be formalised is to be.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 16,173
    Alistair said:

    Wait the "Warren affair" story is coming from perpetual conman Jacob Wohl?

    Get the fuck out of here, why the fuck is anyone on here giving it a shred of time?

    Coulda been a sex swing I guess..
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 16,173
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Are the chances of us leaving on 31st October really as high as 26%? Let's suppose that the EU are secretly much keener on having a deal than they are letting on, that Boris actually wants one, that his text yesterday is broadly agreed during the current week and then endorsed at the leaders conference, that he can somehow get Parliament to agree it, that the EU Parliament doesn't veto it, that I win the lottery, twice, (is this really necessary? ed) and universal peace becomes so endemic that even the DUP get cuddly.

    Don't we still need a technical extension to put through legislation that the government has been too scared to table until now? I think we would but I suppose if everything was rushed through, I mean its not as if Parliament is chock full of people who think this is the worst idea since Eve asked Adam if he fancied a bite, is it?

    It's one of those what would you do if you saw a battleship coming over that hill teasers.
    I'd point and laugh at the stupid captain who'd run his battlewagon aground on a hill.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 20,384

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Voters agree with punters it seems but Leave voters do not blame Boris.

    78% of Brexit Party voters do not blame Boris, even higher than the 73% of current Tory voters who do not blame Boris



    36% blaming Boris is significant.
    Not at all, far more Remainers blame Corbyn for being insufficiently committed to stop Brexit than Leavers blame Boris for not doing enough to deliver Brexit.

    Those are great numbers for Boris
    But Remainers blaming Corbyn for not being sufficiently ‘Remain’ is already priced in.

    All Boris has is his ‘die in a ditch’ rhetoric. If even 10% of his voters move to BXP or don’t vote then everything is in play.
    Brexiters who are prepared to forgive Boris if we are still in the EU on November 1st should have the vote taken away from them for being officially too stupid to vote.

    I am in principle against disenfranchising people but one has to draw a line.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,200

    I'm sure that when Musk wants to dig a hole he has an advanced prototype hole-digging machine that will do an exceptional job.
    It's never Boring, though.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 567

    HYUFD said:

    Voters agree with punters it seems but Leave voters do not blame Boris.

    78% of Brexit Party voters do not blame Boris, even higher than the 73% of current Tory voters who do not blame Boris



    36% blaming Boris is significant.
    No it isn't im afraid. This is pretty much the embedded "not BoJo at any cost" demographic. It is the much greater numbers NOT blaming Johnson and the Tories that is significant.

    The Cummings/Johnson Brexit strategy looks to be turning out to be remarkably successful.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,701
    edited October 4
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    Pensioners set to lose their healthcare in the EU after 6 months in the event of no deal .

    And to think some of them voted Brexit , I think the award for turkey voting for Christmas must go to one of them interviewed who said when she voted to Leave she didn’t realize it would effect her rights in Spain .

    WTF did she think would happen .Aswell as this I really can’t stand Leavers who live in EU countries and think they’re something special whilst moaning about immigration into the UK .

    Not correct according to the government website. If we leave without a deal the UK and Spain have already agreed that existing residents will qualify for health care until at least December 2020: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/living-in-spain#healthcare
    That might be all that's needed for some of them.
    Lol. But in reality deal or no deal is going to make very little difference to this as things stand at the moment because with a deal the arrangements presently remain in place for transition period.

    It is just an example of how these supposedly insuperable problems disappear. Who can doubt that the UK and Spain will agree to continue these mutually beneficial arrangements post 2020? All that is needed is clarity about what the structure in which that agreement will be formalised is to be.

    It all depends on reciprocity, David. Right now Spain is not convinced the generosity it is showing to its British immigrants is being matched by the UK’s treatment of Spanish immigrants.

    https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/09/23/inenglish/1569214269_989612.html

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 35,509
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    Pensioners set to lose their healthcare in the EU after 6 months in the event of no deal .

    And to think some of them voted Brexit , I think the award for turkey voting for Christmas must go to one of them interviewed who said when she voted to Leave she didn’t realize it would effect her rights in Spain .

    WTF did she think would happen .Aswell as this I really can’t stand Leavers who live in EU countries and think they’re something special whilst moaning about immigration into the UK .

    Not correct according to the government website. If we leave without a deal the UK and Spain have already agreed that existing residents will qualify for health care until at least December 2020: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/living-in-spain#healthcare
    That might be all that's needed for some of them.
    Lol. But in reality deal or no deal is going to make very little difference to this as things stand at the moment because with a deal the arrangements presently remain in place for transition period.

    It is just an example of how these supposedly insuperable problems disappear. Who can doubt that the UK and Spain will agree to continue these mutually beneficial arrangements post 2020? All that is needed is clarity about what the structure in which that agreement will be formalised is to be.
    I wouldn’t count on it. The UK has yet to agree to restoring the reciprocal Health Agreement with Guernsey it arbitrarily scrapped years ago. Far fewer patients involved.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,957

    HYUFD said:

    Voters agree with punters it seems but Leave voters do not blame Boris.

    78% of Brexit Party voters do not blame Boris, even higher than the 73% of current Tory voters who do not blame Boris



    36% blaming Boris is significant.
    No it isn't im afraid. This is pretty much the embedded "not BoJo at any cost" demographic. It is the much greater numbers NOT blaming Johnson and the Tories that is significant.

    The Cummings/Johnson Brexit strategy looks to be turning out to be remarkably successful.
    You think that 36% of LEAVE voters blaming Boris for not leaving is not significant? Even if they are normally Labour voters, that will mean a load of ‘working class northern’ seat targets will not go Blue.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,951

    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    Pensioners set to lose their healthcare in the EU after 6 months in the event of no deal .

    And to think some of them voted Brexit , I think the award for turkey voting for Christmas must go to one of them interviewed who said when she voted to Leave she didn’t realize it would effect her rights in Spain .

    WTF did she think would happen .Aswell as this I really can’t stand Leavers who live in EU countries and think they’re something special whilst moaning about immigration into the UK .

    Not correct according to the government website. If we leave without a deal the UK and Spain have already agreed that existing residents will qualify for health care until at least December 2020: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/living-in-spain#healthcare

    The Spanish government has recently said that all arrangements must be reciprocal. It is currently not convinced that the UK is guaranteeing Spanish citizens’ rights.

    https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/09/23/inenglish/1569214269_989612.html

    But we will and not just Spanish rights. All EU citizens already resident here will be able to stay on the same terms and conditions. The government hasn't been clear about much but they are clear about that. Going forward will be more bilateral and likely to vary from country to country.
  • 148grss said:

    HYUFD said:
    As someone from a nearby ward, this is pretty much what I expected (indeed, I don't think any of the parties even campaigned for this by election because it is such a safe LD seat). I'm currently finding it interesting that even good polls for Tories put through models give St Albans as a LD gain in a GE.
    Is it the Ann Maine factor?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 20,384
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    Pensioners set to lose their healthcare in the EU after 6 months in the event of no deal .

    And to think some of them voted Brexit , I think the award for turkey voting for Christmas must go to one of them interviewed who said when she voted to Leave she didn’t realize it would effect her rights in Spain .

    WTF did she think would happen .Aswell as this I really can’t stand Leavers who live in EU countries and think they’re something special whilst moaning about immigration into the UK .

    Not correct according to the government website. If we leave without a deal the UK and Spain have already agreed that existing residents will qualify for health care until at least December 2020: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/living-in-spain#healthcare
    That might be all that's needed for some of them.
    Lol. But in reality deal or no deal is going to make very little difference to this as things stand at the moment because with a deal the arrangements presently remain in place for transition period.

    It is just an example of how these supposedly insuperable problems disappear. Who can doubt that the UK and Spain will agree to continue these mutually beneficial arrangements post 2020? All that is needed is clarity about what the structure in which that agreement will be formalised is to be.
    Yes in the main, as I'm sure it would have been for Scottish independence, there will be sensible and generous arrangements between each party. Which however might stop or be inhibited in certain areas by EU restrictions on bilateral agreements.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,701
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    Pensioners set to lose their healthcare in the EU after 6 months in the event of no deal .

    And to think some of them voted Brexit , I think the award for turkey voting for Christmas must go to one of them interviewed who said when she voted to Leave she didn’t realize it would effect her rights in Spain .

    WTF did she think would happen .Aswell as this I really can’t stand Leavers who live in EU countries and think they’re something special whilst moaning about immigration into the UK .

    Not correct according to the government website. If we leave without a deal the UK and Spain have already agreed that existing residents will qualify for health care until at least December 2020: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/living-in-spain#healthcare

    The Spanish government has recently said that all arrangements must be reciprocal. It is currently not convinced that the UK is guaranteeing Spanish citizens’ rights.

    https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/09/23/inenglish/1569214269_989612.html

    But we will and not just Spanish rights. All EU citizens already resident here will be able to stay on the same terms and conditions. The government hasn't been clear about much but they are clear about that. Going forward will be more bilateral and likely to vary from country to country.

    But we’re not delivering on what we’ve promised, that’s the problem. People are being denied what they were told they would get. The EU has already said there will not be bilateral agreements on citizens’ rights.

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 3,097
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    Pensioners set to lose their healthcare in the EU after 6 months in the event of no deal .

    And to think some of them voted Brexit , I think the award for turkey voting for Christmas must go to one of them interviewed who said when she voted to Leave she didn’t realize it would effect her rights in Spain .

    WTF did she think would happen .Aswell as this I really can’t stand Leavers who live in EU countries and think they’re something special whilst moaning about immigration into the UK .

    Not correct according to the government website. If we leave without a deal the UK and Spain have already agreed that existing residents will qualify for health care until at least December 2020: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/living-in-spain#healthcare

    The Spanish government has recently said that all arrangements must be reciprocal. It is currently not convinced that the UK is guaranteeing Spanish citizens’ rights.

    https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/09/23/inenglish/1569214269_989612.html

    But we will and not just Spanish rights. All EU citizens already resident here will be able to stay on the same terms and conditions. The government hasn't been clear about much but they are clear about that. Going forward will be more bilateral and likely to vary from country to country.
    I’m not sure that many European countries completely trust the UK government to do what it says.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,599
    We won't leave, it won't be allowed.

    The MPs calculated that delaying enough would ebb the enthusiasm of those who voted Leave, and that may well work. The EU never wanted us to leave, it would leave a £10 billion a year hole in their finances and the Germans have no intention of filling that gap.

    That leaves the French to make up the deficit - don't hold your breath.

    After three plus years, the MPs will claim … "We did our best, but it just isn't possible." Especially when they consistently voted against any deal. Cue … a short delay, and then a rapid advance to full political union. "It's what the voters always wanted,"
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 15,086
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    Pensioners set to lose their healthcare in the EU after 6 months in the event of no deal .

    And to think some of them voted Brexit , I think the award for turkey voting for Christmas must go to one of them interviewed who said when she voted to Leave she didn’t realize it would effect her rights in Spain .

    WTF did she think would happen .Aswell as this I really can’t stand Leavers who live in EU countries and think they’re something special whilst moaning about immigration into the UK .

    Not correct according to the government website. If we leave without a deal the UK and Spain have already agreed that existing residents will qualify for health care until at least December 2020: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/living-in-spain#healthcare
    That might be all that's needed for some of them.
    Lol. But in reality deal or no deal is going to make very little difference to this as things stand at the moment because with a deal the arrangements presently remain in place for transition period.

    It is just an example of how these supposedly insuperable problems disappear. Who can doubt that the UK and Spain will agree to continue these mutually beneficial arrangements post 2020? All that is needed is clarity about what the structure in which that agreement will be formalised is to be.
    But haven't we been told that British people in Spain are a terrible drag on the Spanish economy and would be thrown out ???

    How strange the Spanish government thinks otherwise.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    Pensioners set to lose their healthcare in the EU after 6 months in the event of no deal .

    And to think some of them voted Brexit , I think the award for turkey voting for Christmas must go to one of them interviewed who said when she voted to Leave she didn’t realize it would effect her rights in Spain .

    WTF did she think would happen .Aswell as this I really can’t stand Leavers who live in EU countries and think they’re something special whilst moaning about immigration into the UK .

    Not correct according to the government website. If we leave without a deal the UK and Spain have already agreed that existing residents will qualify for health care until at least December 2020: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/living-in-spain#healthcare

    The Spanish government has recently said that all arrangements must be reciprocal. It is currently not convinced that the UK is guaranteeing Spanish citizens’ rights.

    https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/09/23/inenglish/1569214269_989612.html

    But we will and not just Spanish rights. All EU citizens already resident here will be able to stay on the same terms and conditions. The government hasn't been clear about much but they are clear about that. Going forward will be more bilateral and likely to vary from country to country.
    That's not the experience of EU citizens with residence here >> 10 years. The reality does not match the rhetoric and the Home Office is completely insane and obsessed with pushing people out of the country.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,776
    Sky News - Rory Stewart resigns for the Conservative Party and will not stand at the general election.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 567

    HYUFD said:

    Voters agree with punters it seems but Leave voters do not blame Boris.

    78% of Brexit Party voters do not blame Boris, even higher than the 73% of current Tory voters who do not blame Boris



    36% blaming Boris is significant.
    No it isn't im afraid. This is pretty much the embedded "not BoJo at any cost" demographic. It is the much greater numbers NOT blaming Johnson and the Tories that is significant.

    The Cummings/Johnson Brexit strategy looks to be turning out to be remarkably successful.
    You think that 36% of LEAVE voters blaming Boris for not leaving is not significant? Even if they are normally Labour voters, that will mean a load of ‘working class northern’ seat targets will not go Blue.
    No, I dont.

    This is a dramatic change from the euros and the local elections. We know a decent sub-set of the demography of leave is "anti-tory". It is the extent to which the rest of this demographic swing back to the tories that is significant. The evidence here is extremely positive for Johnson.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 16,173
    CD13 said:

    We won't leave, it won't be allowed.

    The MPs calculated that delaying enough would ebb the enthusiasm of those who voted Leave, and that may well work. The EU never wanted us to leave, it would leave a £10 billion a year hole in their finances and the Germans have no intention of filling that gap.

    That leaves the French to make up the deficit - don't hold your breath.

    After three plus years, the MPs will claim … "We did our best, but it just isn't possible." Especially when they consistently voted against any deal. Cue … a short delay, and then a rapid advance to full political union. "It's what the voters always wanted,"

    There's a pretty obvious way to find out what the voters want currently in this context.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 50,888
    Rory walks...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,951
    JackW said:

    Sky News - Rory Stewart resigns for the Conservative Party and will not stand at the general election.

    Sad. He genuinely offered something different and a more consensual way forward but unfortunately that does not accord with the times.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 3,097

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    Pensioners set to lose their healthcare in the EU after 6 months in the event of no deal .

    And to think some of them voted Brexit , I think the award for turkey voting for Christmas must go to one of them interviewed who said when she voted to Leave she didn’t realize it would effect her rights in Spain .

    WTF did she think would happen .Aswell as this I really can’t stand Leavers who live in EU countries and think they’re something special whilst moaning about immigration into the UK .

    Not correct according to the government website. If we leave without a deal the UK and Spain have already agreed that existing residents will qualify for health care until at least December 2020: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/living-in-spain#healthcare
    That might be all that's needed for some of them.
    Lol. But in reality deal or no deal is going to make very little difference to this as things stand at the moment because with a deal the arrangements presently remain in place for transition period.

    It is just an example of how these supposedly insuperable problems disappear. Who can doubt that the UK and Spain will agree to continue these mutually beneficial arrangements post 2020? All that is needed is clarity about what the structure in which that agreement will be formalised is to be.
    But haven't we been told that British people in Spain are a terrible drag on the Spanish economy and would be thrown out ???

    How strange the Spanish government thinks otherwise.
    I do have Spanish friends who jokingly tell me their hospital is always full of immigrants when they go but overall I don’t think we are perceived as a drag.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 567

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Voters agree with punters it seems but Leave voters do not blame Boris.

    78% of Brexit Party voters do not blame Boris, even higher than the 73% of current Tory voters who do not blame Boris



    36% blaming Boris is significant.
    Not at all, far more Remainers blame Corbyn for being insufficiently committed to stop Brexit than Leavers blame Boris for not doing enough to deliver Brexit.

    Those are great numbers for Boris
    But Remainers blaming Corbyn for not being sufficiently ‘Remain’ is already priced in.

    All Boris has is his ‘die in a ditch’ rhetoric. If even 10% of his voters move to BXP or don’t vote then everything is in play.
    Wrong again.

    The continuing opinion polling shift from Lab to LD suggests that there is still potential further downside for Corbyn from deserting leave voters, albeit this is probably reasonably limited now.

    Lab core vote is probably just under 20% so to be fair we are close to that.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,935
    Scott_P said:
    Wow I thought he might hang on a bit longer to see if a deal happened. The Tories are losing more moderate voices.

  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 567

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Voters agree with punters it seems but Leave voters do not blame Boris.

    78% of Brexit Party voters do not blame Boris, even higher than the 73% of current Tory voters who do not blame Boris



    36% blaming Boris is significant.
    Not at all, far more Remainers blame Corbyn for being insufficiently committed to stop Brexit than Leavers blame Boris for not doing enough to deliver Brexit.

    Those are great numbers for Boris
    But Remainers blaming Corbyn for not being sufficiently ‘Remain’ is already priced in.

    All Boris has is his ‘die in a ditch’ rhetoric. If even 10% of his voters move to BXP or don’t vote then everything is in play.
    Wrong again.

    The continuing opinion polling shift from Lab to LD suggests that there is still potential further downside for Corbyn from deserting leave voters, albeit this is probably reasonably limited now.

    Lab core vote is probably just under 20% so to be fair we are close to that.
    sorry...from "deserting REMAIN voters..."

    Typo.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 1,924
    JackW said:

    Sky News - Rory Stewart resigns for the Conservative Party and will not stand at the general election.

    I don't dislike Rory Stewart but how can you go from being a Tory prime ministerial candidate to resignation within a couple of months!?

    It's nearly as bizarre as Sam Gymiah travelling from prospective Tory PM to Lib Dems in half that time?!

    It says more about their personal narcissistic ambitions than any great love for the party that made them.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,951

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    Pensioners set to lose their healthcare in the EU after 6 months in the event of no deal .

    And to think some of them voted Brexit , I think the award for turkey voting for Christmas must go to one of them interviewed who said when she voted to Leave she didn’t realize it would effect her rights in Spain .

    WTF did she think would happen .Aswell as this I really can’t stand Leavers who live in EU countries and think they’re something special whilst moaning about immigration into the UK .

    Not correct according to the government website. If we leave without a deal the UK and Spain have already agreed that existing residents will qualify for health care until at least December 2020: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/living-in-spain#healthcare

    The Spanish government has recently said that all arrangements must be reciprocal. It is currently not convinced that the UK is guaranteeing Spanish citizens’ rights.

    https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/09/23/inenglish/1569214269_989612.html

    But we will and not just Spanish rights. All EU citizens already resident here will be able to stay on the same terms and conditions. The government hasn't been clear about much but they are clear about that. Going forward will be more bilateral and likely to vary from country to country.
    That's not the experience of EU citizens with residence here >> 10 years. The reality does not match the rhetoric and the Home Office is completely insane and obsessed with pushing people out of the country.
    So we are trying to exclude EU citizens now in breach of our treaty obligations right now are we? Weird that we haven't been taken to court about this.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492
    edited October 4
    Scott_P said:
    The idea that our politics will be reduced to an eternal choice between the John Redwoods and the John McDonnells fills me with dread.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 35,509
    Scott_P said:
    Sad news - perhaps he doesn’t fancy spending years on either the government or opposition back-benches?
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 567
    JackW said:

    Sky News - Rory Stewart resigns for the Conservative Party and will not stand at the general election.

    His "lunge for glory" at an end.

    He has played this all pretty badly.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,957
    CD13 said:

    We won't leave, it won't be allowed.

    The MPs calculated that delaying enough would ebb the enthusiasm of those who voted Leave, and that may well work. The EU never wanted us to leave, it would leave a £10 billion a year hole in their finances and the Germans have no intention of filling that gap.

    That leaves the French to make up the deficit - don't hold your breath.

    After three plus years, the MPs will claim … "We did our best, but it just isn't possible." Especially when they consistently voted against any deal. Cue … a short delay, and then a rapid advance to full political union. "It's what the voters always wanted,"

    Sounds good to me.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    Pensioners set to lose their healthcare in the EU after 6 months in the event of no deal .

    And to think some of them voted Brexit , I think the award for turkey voting for Christmas must go to one of them interviewed who said when she voted to Leave she didn’t realize it would effect her rights in Spain .

    WTF did she think would happen .Aswell as this I really can’t stand Leavers who live in EU countries and think they’re something special whilst moaning about immigration into the UK .

    Not correct according to the government website. If we leave without a deal the UK and Spain have already agreed that existing residents will qualify for health care until at least December 2020: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/living-in-spain#healthcare

    The Spanish government has recently said that all arrangements must be reciprocal. It is currently not convinced that the UK is guaranteeing Spanish citizens’ rights.

    https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/09/23/inenglish/1569214269_989612.html

    But we will and not just Spanish rights. All EU citizens already resident here will be able to stay on the same terms and conditions. The government hasn't been clear about much but they are clear about that. Going forward will be more bilateral and likely to vary from country to country.
    That's not the experience of EU citizens with residence here >> 10 years. The reality does not match the rhetoric and the Home Office is completely insane and obsessed with pushing people out of the country.
    So we are trying to exclude EU citizens now in breach of our treaty obligations right now are we? Weird that we haven't been taken to court about this.

    They've been refused settled status under the scheme that is supposed to guarantee their rights after Brexit.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 7,418
    CD13 said:

    We won't leave, it won't be allowed.

    The MPs calculated that delaying enough would ebb the enthusiasm of those who voted Leave, and that may well work. The EU never wanted us to leave, it would leave a £10 billion a year hole in their finances and the Germans have no intention of filling that gap.

    That leaves the French to make up the deficit - don't hold your breath.

    After three plus years, the MPs will claim … "We did our best, but it just isn't possible." Especially when they consistently voted against any deal. Cue … a short delay, and then a rapid advance to full political union. "It's what the voters always wanted,"

    'Just cos you're paranoid ......'
    And let's forget about the ERG and DUP votes against leaving.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,957

    HYUFD said:

    Voters agree with punters it seems but Leave voters do not blame Boris.

    78% of Brexit Party voters do not blame Boris, even higher than the 73% of current Tory voters who do not blame Boris



    36% blaming Boris is significant.
    No it isn't im afraid. This is pretty much the embedded "not BoJo at any cost" demographic. It is the much greater numbers NOT blaming Johnson and the Tories that is significant.

    The Cummings/Johnson Brexit strategy looks to be turning out to be remarkably successful.
    60% of 52% is a good strategy?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 7,418
    JackW said:

    Sky News - Rory Stewart resigns for the Conservative Party and will not stand at the general election.

    Now, that's a shame.
This discussion has been closed.