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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Failed CON leadership contender, Rory Stewart, to fight for th

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited October 4 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Failed CON leadership contender, Rory Stewart, to fight for the London Mayoralty as an independent

There has been a big shake up in the betting for the 2020 London Mayoral race following the announcement this morning that the former Tory cabinet minister and failed leadership contender, Rory Stewart, has decided to enter the race.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894
    FPT

    Re legal case, arent we overlooking that boris could still resign.

    If push and shove arrive this is precisely what he should do. But it looks like he's simply going to sign the letter, probably enjoys the trappings of No 10 too much to let go.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 656
    Surely this is a boon to Khan? Splits Tory / LD preferences in a way that makes it almost guaranteed he wins.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,511
    Everyone's second preference and no-one's first? A real vote of no confidence in Shaun Bailey though who seems be making Zac Goldsmith look high profile.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 656
    Pulpstar said:

    FPT

    Re legal case, arent we overlooking that boris could still resign.

    If push and shove arrive this is precisely what he should do. But it looks like he's simply going to sign the letter, probably enjoys the trappings of No 10 too much to let go.
    Can he resign? If he resigns he has to suggest a PM . Can he suggest anyone who can hold the confidence of the Commons? I don't really think he can.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894
    Stewart would have made an ideal candidate for the conservatives. The lack of the mark will do for him.
    I don't even think it's guaranteed he'll get second as is.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 30,958
    Boris Johnson is revealed as a less accomplished SeanT.

  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,572
    Pulpstar said:

    FPT

    Re legal case, arent we overlooking that boris could still resign.

    If push and shove arrive this is precisely what he should do. But it looks like he's simply going to sign the letter, probably enjoys the trappings of No 10 too much to let go.
    I thought immediately that he would resign rather than send the letter. Would he have to do that today for the two weeks period of FTPA to get him out by 19th? Or could he try to negotiate a deal? My other question is whether there is some piece of arcane law that he will drag up like the Speaker?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894
    148grss said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FPT

    Re legal case, arent we overlooking that boris could still resign.

    If push and shove arrive this is precisely what he should do. But it looks like he's simply going to sign the letter, probably enjoys the trappings of No 10 too much to let go.
    Can he resign? If he resigns he has to suggest a PM . Can he suggest anyone who can hold the confidence of the Commons? I don't really think he can.
    I think whoever he nominated would not have the confidence of the house tested till they've sent the letter in question - or if a vote was forced by the Tories it'd lose so they'd have the confidence of the house on the 19th.

    Even Corbyn.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,762
    edited October 4
    I dont understand rory's thinking, unless he has got high on his own supply of all the media pumping over his leadership bid. Despite all the positive media coverage, he was still never really in the running.

    He would be much better doing a david miliband and doing the international aid thing and then perhaps come back when things have moved on.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 815
    The end of Rory Stewart MP. Rory Stewart will return in Mayoral Election

    [Bond theme plays]
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,607
    Rory Stewart might get the media following that propels him forward. Mayor of London has lets remember elected Red Ken, though, I would be first to admit the dynamics for an Independent Tory are some what different in a Labour city like London. I think he will probably fail but in these political febrile times anything can happen...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,762

    Boris Johnson is revealed as a less accomplished SeanT.

    Sounds more like he has based the character on his dad.
  • Sorry for being so off-topic and behind in my reading-

    "Some civil servants have an unofficial test for their briefing documents. The object is to make them so clear that even the dimmest of ministers can grasp the essential points by the third time of reading. For a while it was dubbed "the Amber Rudd test" in honour of one slow learner , but when Rudd became Home Secretary, it was decided that she deserved more respect. So the name was changed - to "the Priti Patel test". Now, thanks to Patel's unexpected promotion to same position, yet another name is under discussion."

    https://www.theweek.co.uk/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,762

    Sorry for being so off-topic and behind in my reading-

    "Some civil servants have an unofficial test for their briefing documents. The object is to make them so clear that even the dimmest of ministers can grasp the essential points by the third time of reading. For a while it was dubbed "the Amber Rudd test" in honour of one slow learner , but when Rudd became Home Secretary, it was decided that she deserved more respect. So the name was changed - to "the Priti Patel test". Now, thanks to Patel's unexpected promotion to same position, yet another name is under discussion."

    https://www.theweek.co.uk/

    The jeremy corbyn test?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894
    I think Johnson will simply sign the letter and have some ridiculous hope that he can stay as PM till Brexit is 'delivered'.
    Except it won't be, the opposition will simply leave him twisting in the wind for a bit and then VONC him anyway (They have the numbers, just, I expect in this scenario). At which point he might as well have resigned.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,733
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:
    Likely Hungary will veto further extension hence Hungary's Foreign Secretary at Cabinet in Downing Street yesterday rendering the Benn Act irrelevant
    So 'taking back control', and all that talk of how we just needed to shout at Jonny Foreigner a bit louder and he'd cave in, reduces to our PM being dependent on the whim of Viktor Mihály Orbán.
    Diehard Remainers have been relying on Macron and Varadkar
    "Hey babe, I negotiate million dollar deals for breakfast. I think I can handle this Eurotrash!"
  • Sorry for being so off-topic and behind in my reading-

    "Some civil servants have an unofficial test for their briefing documents. The object is to make them so clear that even the dimmest of ministers can grasp the essential points by the third time of reading. For a while it was dubbed "the Amber Rudd test" in honour of one slow learner , but when Rudd became Home Secretary, it was decided that she deserved more respect. So the name was changed - to "the Priti Patel test". Now, thanks to Patel's unexpected promotion to same position, yet another name is under discussion."

    https://www.theweek.co.uk/

    The jeremy corbyn test?
    Does he get briefed by civil servants? Probably a bit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894
    My biggest concern as a now general Stewart layer is the question of how hard will The Daily Osborne push him, and can that influence enough voters.

    I expect Osborne will give him favourable coverage but it's not going to be enough.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,734
    Pulpstar said:

    My biggest concern as a now general Stewart layer is the question of how hard will The Daily Osborne push him, and can that influence enough voters.

    I expect Osborne will give him favourable coverage but it's not going to be enough.

    Yes and Yes.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,607

    Boris Johnson is revealed as a less accomplished SeanT.

    I am bored of these stories in newspapers about Boris Johnson, which, are designed to boost his and the Tories standing. They keep trying to sell the turd and no matter how much they polish it. The shit is still underneath...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,481

    I dont understand rory's thinking, unless he has got high on his own supply of all the media pumping over his leadership bid.

    He would be much better doing a david miliband and doing the international aid thing and then perhaps come back when things have moved on.

    Stewart has a good chance of coming second I imagine. That might be an interesting result as an independent candidate not backed by a party.
  • isamisam Posts: 28,277
    Wow big money for Khan on Betfair, now 1.62-1.68. I thought the smart money would come for him. He touched 1.9 earlier I think
  • On Topic-

    Not a Rory fan but at least it makes the race more interesting.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,546
    Pulpstar said:

    FPT

    Re legal case, arent we overlooking that boris could still resign.

    If push and shove arrive this is precisely what he should do. But it looks like he's simply going to sign the letter, probably enjoys the trappings of No 10 too much to let go.
    Power corrupts the best of us, if even Boris Johnson is susceptible then what hope for us mere mortals.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,253
    TGOHF2 said:
    Parliament isn't the executive and cannot dictate its negotiating position etc
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,253
    On topic
    Fox hunting fan. In London.
    Avoid with betting $$$
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,546

    Sorry for being so off-topic and behind in my reading-

    "Some civil servants have an unofficial test for their briefing documents. The object is to make them so clear that even the dimmest of ministers can grasp the essential points by the third time of reading. For a while it was dubbed "the Amber Rudd test" in honour of one slow learner , but when Rudd became Home Secretary, it was decided that she deserved more respect. So the name was changed - to "the Priti Patel test". Now, thanks to Patel's unexpected promotion to same position, yet another name is under discussion."

    https://www.theweek.co.uk/

    The Cleverly test works on a few levels...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894
    isam said:

    Wow big money for Khan on Betfair, now 1.62-1.68. I thought the smart money would come for him. He touched 1.9 earlier I think

    Back to a De Novo betting construction.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 823
    TGOHF2 said:
    The government seem to be moving towards reluctantly extending. That is a massive strategic mistake and repeats May's collapse. Boris should resign with a fiery speech castigating his opponents as fighting democracy.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,734

    On topic
    Fox hunting fan. In London.
    Avoid with betting $$$

    I don't expect his programme will include setting up meets in Kensington Gardens, although to be fair anything which helped reduce the nuisance of foxes on London streets should be quite popular.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,253
    I'm enjoying the US latest political phenomenon, baby eaters for Ocasio Cortez!
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,252
    Gabs2 said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The government seem to be moving towards reluctantly extending. That is a massive strategic mistake and repeats May's collapse. Boris should resign with a fiery speech castigating his opponents as fighting democracy.
    If Johnson extends it will be the end of him and in all probability the end of Brexit altogether.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,481
    FF43 said:

    I dont understand rory's thinking, unless he has got high on his own supply of all the media pumping over his leadership bid.

    He would be much better doing a david miliband and doing the international aid thing and then perhaps come back when things have moved on.

    Stewart has a good chance of coming second I imagine. That might be an interesting result as an independent candidate not backed by a party.
    Actually the main win for Stewart may be that his candidature keeps him in the political eye for the next six months. Khan and Stewart will be the only mayoral candidates people will be interested in or have heard of
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,253

    On topic
    Fox hunting fan. In London.
    Avoid with betting $$$

    I don't expect his programme will include setting up meets in Kensington Gardens, although to be fair anything which helped reduce the nuisance of foxes on London streets should be quite popular.
    No, but it will be hammered at by Khan. The Tory manifesto bilge of a foxy free vote was part of the 2017 debacle. Rory attends (legal) hunt meetings and is a keen pro hunter. It will go down in metropolitan luvvie millenial London like a cup of cold sick
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 2,093
    Gabs2 said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The government seem to be moving towards reluctantly extending. That is a massive strategic mistake and repeats May's collapse. Boris should resign with a fiery speech castigating his opponents as fighting democracy.
    Vain liar prefers going back on his word than becoming the shortest serving PM shocker.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 823

    Sorry for being so off-topic and behind in my reading-

    "Some civil servants have an unofficial test for their briefing documents. The object is to make them so clear that even the dimmest of ministers can grasp the essential points by the third time of reading. For a while it was dubbed "the Amber Rudd test" in honour of one slow learner , but when Rudd became Home Secretary, it was decided that she deserved more respect. So the name was changed - to "the Priti Patel test". Now, thanks to Patel's unexpected promotion to same position, yet another name is under discussion."

    https://www.theweek.co.uk/

    Amber Rudd has a degree from Queen's College and passed the high interview bar to get into JP Morgan. Priti Patel didn't do quite as well but has a Masters from Essex, which is one of the best government departments in the country. I suspect this is civil servants revealing their own prejudices.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 1,121

    Rory Stewart might get the media following that propels him forward. Mayor of London has lets remember elected Red Ken, though, I would be first to admit the dynamics for an Independent Tory are some what different in a Labour city like London. I think he will probably fail but in these political febrile times anything can happen...

    London’s reputation as a Labour stronghold is overstated. The Conservatives used to win the old GLC during its 20 year existence. Inner London, the Old LCC, maybe but not Greater London as a whole. It’s Ken being in charge when the GLC was abolished and then becoming the first mayor in 2000 that gives the rep.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894
    The Tories must have got into their heads that having Corbyn in No 10 for a short while is more politically toxic than signing this letter.
    I think that's absolutely laughable and the polls in time will show this.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 3,097
    edited October 4

    Pulpstar said:

    FPT

    Re legal case, arent we overlooking that boris could still resign.

    If push and shove arrive this is precisely what he should do. But it looks like he's simply going to sign the letter, probably enjoys the trappings of No 10 too much to let go.
    I thought immediately that he would resign rather than send the letter. Would he have to do that today for the two weeks period of FTPA to get him out by 19th? Or could he try to negotiate a deal? My other question is whether there is some piece of arcane law that he will drag up like the Speaker?
    If he resigns the Queen will invite corbyn to form government which will remain until it loses a confidence motion the FTPA kicks in
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,734

    On topic
    Fox hunting fan. In London.
    Avoid with betting $$$

    I don't expect his programme will include setting up meets in Kensington Gardens, although to be fair anything which helped reduce the nuisance of foxes on London streets should be quite popular.
    No, but it will be hammered at by Khan. The Tory manifesto bilge of a foxy free vote was part of the 2017 debacle. Rory attends (legal) hunt meetings and is a keen pro hunter. It will go down in metropolitan luvvie millenial London like a cup of cold sick
    I really don't think it will make the slightest difference. Not everyone is obsessed with this minor issue, it is of zero relevance to London, Khan won't waste campaigning bandwidth on it, and those that are obsessed with it were never going to vote for Rory or any other Tory or ex-Tory in the first place.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,733

    Gabs2 said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The government seem to be moving towards reluctantly extending. That is a massive strategic mistake and repeats May's collapse. Boris should resign with a fiery speech castigating his opponents as fighting democracy.
    Vain liar prefers going back on his word than becoming the shortest serving PM shocker.
    Boris was sacked twice for telling porkies:

    In 1988, he was fired from The Times for making up quotations by historian Colin Lucas (his own Godfather!).

    In 2004, he was fired from the Tory Shadow Front Bench for lying about his affair with Petronella Wyatt (the so-called "Pyramid of Piffle).
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 823

    Gabs2 said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The government seem to be moving towards reluctantly extending. That is a massive strategic mistake and repeats May's collapse. Boris should resign with a fiery speech castigating his opponents as fighting democracy.
    If Johnson extends it will be the end of him and in all probability the end of Brexit altogether.
    It will be the end of him but I think Brexit is inevitable now. It just might take ten years. British independence from the EU is now as much a part of the Tory vote as Scottish independence from the UK is for the SNP. I can't see any Conservative manifesto having a Remain platform for 30 years. They will surely get a majority sooner or later.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,734
    Gabs2 said:

    Sorry for being so off-topic and behind in my reading-

    "Some civil servants have an unofficial test for their briefing documents. The object is to make them so clear that even the dimmest of ministers can grasp the essential points by the third time of reading. For a while it was dubbed "the Amber Rudd test" in honour of one slow learner , but when Rudd became Home Secretary, it was decided that she deserved more respect. So the name was changed - to "the Priti Patel test". Now, thanks to Patel's unexpected promotion to same position, yet another name is under discussion."

    https://www.theweek.co.uk/

    Amber Rudd has a degree from Queen's College and passed the high interview bar to get into JP Morgan. Priti Patel didn't do quite as well but has a Masters from Essex, which is one of the best government departments in the country. I suspect this is civil servants revealing their own prejudices.
    If it's true, yes.

    Actually Amber is very bright.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894
    For the sake of a month or so of (Completely shackled) Corbyn Gov't we're going to get 5 bloody years.

    Thanks Boris.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894
    OTOH This could well make my Baker betslip look good in time.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 823

    On topic
    Fox hunting fan. In London.
    Avoid with betting $$$

    I don't expect his programme will include setting up meets in Kensington Gardens, although to be fair anything which helped reduce the nuisance of foxes on London streets should be quite popular.
    No, but it will be hammered at by Khan. The Tory manifesto bilge of a foxy free vote was part of the 2017 debacle. Rory attends (legal) hunt meetings and is a keen pro hunter. It will go down in metropolitan luvvie millenial London like a cup of cold sick
    I really don't think it will make the slightest difference. Not everyone is obsessed with this minor issue, it is of zero relevance to London, Khan won't waste campaigning bandwidth on it, and those that are obsessed with it were never going to vote for Rory or any other Tory or ex-Tory in the first place.
    It might not make much difference for a Tory, but it will be a top three thing voters know about the independent. It will be part of him being a rural toff, unlike Khan being brought up in Sarf London.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 2,093
    Gabs2 said:

    Sorry for being so off-topic and behind in my reading-

    "Some civil servants have an unofficial test for their briefing documents. The object is to make them so clear that even the dimmest of ministers can grasp the essential points by the third time of reading. For a while it was dubbed "the Amber Rudd test" in honour of one slow learner , but when Rudd became Home Secretary, it was decided that she deserved more respect. So the name was changed - to "the Priti Patel test". Now, thanks to Patel's unexpected promotion to same position, yet another name is under discussion."

    https://www.theweek.co.uk/

    Amber Rudd has a degree from Queen's College and passed the high interview bar to get into JP Morgan. Priti Patel didn't do quite as well but has a Masters from Essex, which is one of the best government departments in the country. I suspect this is civil servants revealing their own prejudices.
    Perhaps putting bright opinionated people in charge of ministries they have never worked in before is not a good model for running a country. They bring their outsider thoughts in which may make sense at a basic level but dont take account of complexities and knock on effects they are unaware of. I imagine it is that dynamic that civil servants get repeatedly frustrated by, not that they think senior ministers are as dim as the article suggests.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,881
    148grss said:


    Can he resign? If he resigns he has to suggest a PM . Can he suggest anyone who can hold the confidence of the Commons? I don't really think he can.

    Ken Clarke? Parliament will be rather desperate for someone to sign the extension at that point, so at least it's plausible.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,253
    Could he introduce a bill stating the government passes authorisation to request an extension on the 19th October to the Speaker due to the conflict between its policy and the Benn Act? Let Hobbit take the hit?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,734
    Gabs2 said:

    On topic
    Fox hunting fan. In London.
    Avoid with betting $$$

    I don't expect his programme will include setting up meets in Kensington Gardens, although to be fair anything which helped reduce the nuisance of foxes on London streets should be quite popular.
    No, but it will be hammered at by Khan. The Tory manifesto bilge of a foxy free vote was part of the 2017 debacle. Rory attends (legal) hunt meetings and is a keen pro hunter. It will go down in metropolitan luvvie millenial London like a cup of cold sick
    I really don't think it will make the slightest difference. Not everyone is obsessed with this minor issue, it is of zero relevance to London, Khan won't waste campaigning bandwidth on it, and those that are obsessed with it were never going to vote for Rory or any other Tory or ex-Tory in the first place.
    It might not make much difference for a Tory, but it will be a top three thing voters know about the independent. It will be part of him being a rural toff, unlike Khan being brought up in Sarf London.
    Precisely. Those who are driven by prejudice against 'rural toffs' wouldn't vote for him anyway, fox-hunting or no fox-hunting.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894

    On topic
    Fox hunting fan. In London.
    Avoid with betting $$$

    I don't expect his programme will include setting up meets in Kensington Gardens, although to be fair anything which helped reduce the nuisance of foxes on London streets should be quite popular.
    No, but it will be hammered at by Khan. The Tory manifesto bilge of a foxy free vote was part of the 2017 debacle. Rory attends (legal) hunt meetings and is a keen pro hunter. It will go down in metropolitan luvvie millenial London like a cup of cold sick
    I really don't think it will make the slightest difference. Not everyone is obsessed with this minor issue, it is of zero relevance to London, Khan won't waste campaigning bandwidth on it, and those that are obsessed with it were never going to vote for Rory or any other Tory or ex-Tory in the first place.
    I think that's almost correct but not quite. There'll be a good few centrist Dad types who may well be completely repulsed if the hunting narrative is pushed (I'm sure the LD campaign for instance might mention this).
    Remember Big G didn't vote for Hunt in the Tory leadership election due to this issue.
    It's not a huge intersection but I'd argue it exists and he needs every last vote.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,229

    I dont understand rory's thinking, unless he has got high on his own supply of all the media pumping over his leadership bid. Despite all the positive media coverage, he was still never really in the running.

    He would be much better doing a david miliband and doing the international aid thing and then perhaps come back when things have moved on.

    Agree; plenty of 'high profile' people have found that without some on-the-ground support it's difficult to make an electoral break-though.

    Might be easier in the age of social media, but I don't think it'll make that much difference.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894
    The answer to 4) is that the EU will extend even if Johnson isn't very enthusiastic about it. It's the EU, if Cummings doesn't think they'll kick a mahoosive can down the road he must be thick.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,773
    Pulpstar said:

    The answer to 4) is that the EU will extend even if Johnson isn't very enthusiastic about it. It's the EU, if Cummings doesn't think they'll kick a mahoosive can down the road he must be thick.

    And we keep doing this until June 2022. What joy.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,253
    Pulpstar said:

    The answer to 4) is that the EU will extend even if Johnson isn't very enthusiastic about it. It's the EU, if Cummings doesn't think they'll kick a mahoosive can down the road he must be thick.

    Depends if theres anything hes threatening to wreck in the period of the extension. Extend and I'll veto your arses into stalemate etc etc
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,734
    edited October 4
    Pulpstar said:

    The answer to 4) is that the EU will extend even if Johnson isn't very enthusiastic about it. It's the EU, if Cummings doesn't think they'll kick a mahoosive can down the road he must be thick.

    Yes, I'm sure that is right. They will (not unreasonably) cover it by saying that there is no settled position in the UK government/parliament and that therefore more time needs to be given to us so we can sort out what we want.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    Pulpstar said:

    The answer to 4) is that the EU will extend even if Johnson isn't very enthusiastic about it. It's the EU, if Cummings doesn't think they'll kick a mahoosive can down the road he must be thick.

    Yes, I'm sure that is right. They will (not unreasonably) cover it by saying that there is no settled position in the UK government/parliament and that therefore more time needs to be given to us to sort out what we want.
    What if Boris intimates that we will not be paying in any more money ?

    Would the EU let us stay for free ?
  • isamisam Posts: 28,277

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,734
    TGOHF2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The answer to 4) is that the EU will extend even if Johnson isn't very enthusiastic about it. It's the EU, if Cummings doesn't think they'll kick a mahoosive can down the road he must be thick.

    Yes, I'm sure that is right. They will (not unreasonably) cover it by saying that there is no settled position in the UK government/parliament and that therefore more time needs to be given to us to sort out what we want.
    What if Boris intimates that we will not be paying in any more money ?

    Would the EU let us stay for free ?
    We'd be in breach of treaty obligations in that case, they know they'd get their money sooner or later, probably sooner.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,081
    @Benpointer it was @noneoftheabove not you - although your post was the original catalyst
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 50,888
    TGOHF2 said:

    What if Boris intimates that we will not be paying in any more money ?

    Would the EU let us stay for free ?

    BoZo would get VONCed, and the next guy would write the cheque
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 7,418

    I dont understand rory's thinking, unless he has got high on his own supply of all the media pumping over his leadership bid. Despite all the positive media coverage, he was still never really in the running.

    He would be much better doing a david miliband and doing the international aid thing and then perhaps come back when things have moved on.

    Agree; plenty of 'high profile' people have found that without some on-the-ground support it's difficult to make an electoral break-though.

    Might be easier in the age of social media, but I don't think it'll make that much difference.
    .... as TIG found out.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,081

    Boris Johnson is revealed as a less accomplished SeanT.

    That will be Emily Sheffield as in "Sam Cam's half sister"-Emily Sheffield?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894

    Pulpstar said:

    The answer to 4) is that the EU will extend even if Johnson isn't very enthusiastic about it. It's the EU, if Cummings doesn't think they'll kick a mahoosive can down the road he must be thick.

    Depends if theres anything hes threatening to wreck in the period of the extension. Extend and I'll veto your arses into stalemate etc etc
    If he's not going to resign he's not going to suddenly threaten to withhold all our payments whilst we're in the EU. We have to negotiate with the EU whether we leave with or without a deal or just remain after all. His credibility (Hah yes I know I know) would be shot.
  • Gabs2 said:

    Sorry for being so off-topic and behind in my reading-

    "Some civil servants have an unofficial test for their briefing documents. The object is to make them so clear that even the dimmest of ministers can grasp the essential points by the third time of reading. For a while it was dubbed "the Amber Rudd test" in honour of one slow learner , but when Rudd became Home Secretary, it was decided that she deserved more respect. So the name was changed - to "the Priti Patel test". Now, thanks to Patel's unexpected promotion to same position, yet another name is under discussion."

    https://www.theweek.co.uk/

    Amber Rudd has a degree from Queen's College and passed the high interview bar to get into JP Morgan. Priti Patel didn't do quite as well but has a Masters from Essex, which is one of the best government departments in the country. I suspect this is civil servants revealing their own prejudices.
    I know and she was once my glorious overlord (All Hail Coffey) - I'm so thick I got kicked out of the OU.

    Good gossip though I'm sure you'll agree.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,081

    Gabs2 said:

    Sorry for being so off-topic and behind in my reading-

    "Some civil servants have an unofficial test for their briefing documents. The object is to make them so clear that even the dimmest of ministers can grasp the essential points by the third time of reading. For a while it was dubbed "the Amber Rudd test" in honour of one slow learner , but when Rudd became Home Secretary, it was decided that she deserved more respect. So the name was changed - to "the Priti Patel test". Now, thanks to Patel's unexpected promotion to same position, yet another name is under discussion."

    https://www.theweek.co.uk/

    Amber Rudd has a degree from Queen's College and passed the high interview bar to get into JP Morgan. Priti Patel didn't do quite as well but has a Masters from Essex, which is one of the best government departments in the country. I suspect this is civil servants revealing their own prejudices.
    If it's true, yes.

    Actually Amber is very bright.
    shockingly poor judgement
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,229
    edited October 4
    Apologies if duplicated but this has just come up on the Gardian website. Jennifer Arcuri's lawyer saying the the British Press; 'Get in the queue — if you want her services, you have to pay for it.'

    He meant her story of course, but it brought to mind the late Mandy Rice-Davies.

    Edited for FFS.
  • Charles said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Sorry for being so off-topic and behind in my reading-

    "Some civil servants have an unofficial test for their briefing documents. The object is to make them so clear that even the dimmest of ministers can grasp the essential points by the third time of reading. For a while it was dubbed "the Amber Rudd test" in honour of one slow learner , but when Rudd became Home Secretary, it was decided that she deserved more respect. So the name was changed - to "the Priti Patel test". Now, thanks to Patel's unexpected promotion to same position, yet another name is under discussion."

    https://www.theweek.co.uk/

    Amber Rudd has a degree from Queen's College and passed the high interview bar to get into JP Morgan. Priti Patel didn't do quite as well but has a Masters from Essex, which is one of the best government departments in the country. I suspect this is civil servants revealing their own prejudices.
    If it's true, yes.

    Actually Amber is very bright.
    shockingly poor judgement
    TBF I'll sure AA Gill wouldn't have had much time for a thicko if that's any indicator.
  • I dont understand rory's thinking, unless he has got high on his own supply of all the media pumping over his leadership bid. Despite all the positive media coverage, he was still never really in the running.

    He would be much better doing a david miliband and doing the international aid thing and then perhaps come back when things have moved on.

    Agree; plenty of 'high profile' people have found that without some on-the-ground support it's difficult to make an electoral break-though.

    Might be easier in the age of social media, but I don't think it'll make that much difference.
    How does George Galloway manage to do it? cf. Farage

    The man's an electoral genius (and afaia currently well compensated on a weekly basis for his current day job)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,081

    Charles said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Sorry for being so off-topic and behind in my reading-

    "Some civil servants have an unofficial test for their briefing documents. The object is to make them so clear that even the dimmest of ministers can grasp the essential points by the third time of reading. For a while it was dubbed "the Amber Rudd test" in honour of one slow learner , but when Rudd became Home Secretary, it was decided that she deserved more respect. So the name was changed - to "the Priti Patel test". Now, thanks to Patel's unexpected promotion to same position, yet another name is under discussion."

    https://www.theweek.co.uk/

    Amber Rudd has a degree from Queen's College and passed the high interview bar to get into JP Morgan. Priti Patel didn't do quite as well but has a Masters from Essex, which is one of the best government departments in the country. I suspect this is civil servants revealing their own prejudices.
    If it's true, yes.

    Actually Amber is very bright.
    shockingly poor judgement
    TBF I'll sure AA Gill wouldn't have had much time for a thicko if that's any indicator.
    She's bright but has associated with some very dodgy people in her chequered career

    She also gave tacit approval to her brother treating their brother-in-law extremely badly.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,229

    I dont understand rory's thinking, unless he has got high on his own supply of all the media pumping over his leadership bid. Despite all the positive media coverage, he was still never really in the running.

    He would be much better doing a david miliband and doing the international aid thing and then perhaps come back when things have moved on.

    Agree; plenty of 'high profile' people have found that without some on-the-ground support it's difficult to make an electoral break-though.

    Might be easier in the age of social media, but I don't think it'll make that much difference.
    How does George Galloway manage to do it? cf. Farage

    The man's an electoral genius (and afaia currently well compensated on a weekly basis for his current day job)
    Both Galloway and Farage find themselves some sort of OTG organisation fairly quickly. And the word I used was 'difficult'; remind me of how many general elections Farage, in particular has been successful in.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 335
    Scott_P said:
    Yawn. Next Tweet from a bloke with an opinion please.
  • I dont understand rory's thinking, unless he has got high on his own supply of all the media pumping over his leadership bid. Despite all the positive media coverage, he was still never really in the running.

    He would be much better doing a david miliband and doing the international aid thing and then perhaps come back when things have moved on.

    Agree; plenty of 'high profile' people have found that without some on-the-ground support it's difficult to make an electoral break-though.

    Might be easier in the age of social media, but I don't think it'll make that much difference.
    How does George Galloway manage to do it? cf. Farage

    The man's an electoral genius (and afaia currently well compensated on a weekly basis for his current day job)
    Both Galloway and Farage find themselves some sort of OTG organisation fairly quickly. And the word I used was 'difficult'; remind me of how many general elections Farage, in particular has been successful in.
    cf. means Compare With in abbreviated latin
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,006

    On topic
    Fox hunting fan. In London.
    Avoid with betting $$$

    Ooohhhh... I don't know, I think the introduction of urban hunts would be welcomed by a fair number of Londoners.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,231
    Pulpstar said:

    FPT

    Re legal case, arent we overlooking that boris could still resign.

    If push and shove arrive this is precisely what he should do. But it looks like he's simply going to sign the letter, probably enjoys the trappings of No 10 too much to let go.
    Doesn't want to hold shortest-serving PM record.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,006
    Charles said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Sorry for being so off-topic and behind in my reading-

    "Some civil servants have an unofficial test for their briefing documents. The object is to make them so clear that even the dimmest of ministers can grasp the essential points by the third time of reading. For a while it was dubbed "the Amber Rudd test" in honour of one slow learner , but when Rudd became Home Secretary, it was decided that she deserved more respect. So the name was changed - to "the Priti Patel test". Now, thanks to Patel's unexpected promotion to same position, yet another name is under discussion."

    https://www.theweek.co.uk/

    Amber Rudd has a degree from Queen's College and passed the high interview bar to get into JP Morgan. Priti Patel didn't do quite as well but has a Masters from Essex, which is one of the best government departments in the country. I suspect this is civil servants revealing their own prejudices.
    If it's true, yes.

    Actually Amber is very bright.
    shockingly poor judgement
    Are her and Kwasi still together? (I've not seen him since i moved to the US)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,229

    I dont understand rory's thinking, unless he has got high on his own supply of all the media pumping over his leadership bid. Despite all the positive media coverage, he was still never really in the running.

    He would be much better doing a david miliband and doing the international aid thing and then perhaps come back when things have moved on.

    Agree; plenty of 'high profile' people have found that without some on-the-ground support it's difficult to make an electoral break-though.

    Might be easier in the age of social media, but I don't think it'll make that much difference.
    How does George Galloway manage to do it? cf. Farage

    The man's an electoral genius (and afaia currently well compensated on a weekly basis for his current day job)
    Both Galloway and Farage find themselves some sort of OTG organisation fairly quickly. And the word I used was 'difficult'; remind me of how many general elections Farage, in particular has been successful in.
    cf. means Compare With in abbreviated latin
    I suspect Galloway only stands where there's something a reasonably supportive TU or similar organisation.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 656








    So gov has made it clear they will do what the Benn Act says, but courts may still write an injunction telling them they have to because the government isn't really trustworthy. Interesting.

    Also, in before people calling him out as a remainer:

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418
    Drutt said:

    The end of Rory Stewart MP. Rory Stewart will return in Mayoral Election

    [Last of the Summer Wine theme plays]

    perhaps....
  • I dont understand rory's thinking, unless he has got high on his own supply of all the media pumping over his leadership bid. Despite all the positive media coverage, he was still never really in the running.

    He would be much better doing a david miliband and doing the international aid thing and then perhaps come back when things have moved on.

    Agree; plenty of 'high profile' people have found that without some on-the-ground support it's difficult to make an electoral break-though.

    Might be easier in the age of social media, but I don't think it'll make that much difference.
    How does George Galloway manage to do it? cf. Farage

    The man's an electoral genius (and afaia currently well compensated on a weekly basis for his current day job)
    Both Galloway and Farage find themselves some sort of OTG organisation fairly quickly. And the word I used was 'difficult'; remind me of how many general elections Farage, in particular has been successful in.
    cf. means Compare With in abbreviated latin
    I suspect Galloway only stands where there's something a reasonably supportive TU or similar organisation.
    I don't know how he does it - but as I say he's a bit of an Electoral Genius. He always manages to get the Muslims on side I know that much.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,090

    On topic
    Fox hunting fan. In London.
    Avoid with betting $$$

    I don't expect his programme will include setting up meets in Kensington Gardens, although to be fair anything which helped reduce the nuisance of foxes on London streets should be quite popular.
    No, but it will be hammered at by Khan. The Tory manifesto bilge of a foxy free vote was part of the 2017 debacle. Rory attends (legal) hunt meetings and is a keen pro hunter. It will go down in metropolitan luvvie millenial London like a cup of cold sick
    This is a bit wood-for-the-trees, isn't it?

    The fact "Rory supports hunting" is as naught in London compared to "Rory voted repeatedly for Theresa May's Brexit deal and still says he supports Brexit".

    The Lib Dems are going to repeatedly hammer him on this.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 568
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-49921799

    Question for everyone.
    Whilst I have no doubt that O'Mara is not acting in the interests of ANY of his constituents, if the complaint is upheld, why wouldn't this apply to the seven Sinn Fein MPs, who also collect sacks of cash but do nothing for it?
  • BromBrom Posts: 1,835
    148grss said:









    So gov has made it clear they will do what the Benn Act says, but courts may still write an injunction telling them they have to because the government isn't really trustworthy. Interesting.

    Also, in before people calling him out as a remainer:

    This guy David Allen Green is a nutjob, we've seen it all before. No wonder the press gives him a wide birth
    148grss said:









    So gov has made it clear they will do what the Benn Act says, but courts may still write an injunction telling them they have to because the government isn't really trustworthy. Interesting.

    Also, in before people calling him out as a remainer:

    One tweet saying he's not a hysterical remainer doesn't excuse his wild conspiracy theory back catalogue. Like so many twitter demigods we take his views with a hefty pinch of salt.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,081
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Sorry for being so off-topic and behind in my reading-

    "Some civil servants have an unofficial test for their briefing documents. The object is to make them so clear that even the dimmest of ministers can grasp the essential points by the third time of reading. For a while it was dubbed "the Amber Rudd test" in honour of one slow learner , but when Rudd became Home Secretary, it was decided that she deserved more respect. So the name was changed - to "the Priti Patel test". Now, thanks to Patel's unexpected promotion to same position, yet another name is under discussion."

    https://www.theweek.co.uk/

    Amber Rudd has a degree from Queen's College and passed the high interview bar to get into JP Morgan. Priti Patel didn't do quite as well but has a Masters from Essex, which is one of the best government departments in the country. I suspect this is civil servants revealing their own prejudices.
    If it's true, yes.

    Actually Amber is very bright.
    shockingly poor judgement
    Are her and Kwasi still together? (I've not seen him since i moved to the US)
    not sure - don't know either well enough, tbh!

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,253

    On topic
    Fox hunting fan. In London.
    Avoid with betting $$$

    I don't expect his programme will include setting up meets in Kensington Gardens, although to be fair anything which helped reduce the nuisance of foxes on London streets should be quite popular.
    No, but it will be hammered at by Khan. The Tory manifesto bilge of a foxy free vote was part of the 2017 debacle. Rory attends (legal) hunt meetings and is a keen pro hunter. It will go down in metropolitan luvvie millenial London like a cup of cold sick
    This is a bit wood-for-the-trees, isn't it?

    The fact "Rory supports hunting" is as naught in London compared to "Rory voted repeatedly for Theresa May's Brexit deal and still says he supports Brexit".

    The Lib Dems are going to repeatedly hammer him on this.
    Oh I dunno. 'This guy from Cumbria who likes hunting foxes......' it's a good dismissal for someone wanting to be mayor. Obviously they'll go hard in brexit/no grexit too but this is the icing. Fox hunting is really really unpopular outside the countryside
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,862

    Scott_P said:
    Yawn. Next Tweet from a bloke with an opinion please.
    He's talking nonsense anyway. Boris needs to indicate that the Benn act will not stop us leaving, or (thanks to the pond life in the Commons) he will have no negotiating position at all. Therefore, clearly he needs to hint that there is a way, without laying it out in step by step instructions.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418

    TGOHF2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The answer to 4) is that the EU will extend even if Johnson isn't very enthusiastic about it. It's the EU, if Cummings doesn't think they'll kick a mahoosive can down the road he must be thick.

    Yes, I'm sure that is right. They will (not unreasonably) cover it by saying that there is no settled position in the UK government/parliament and that therefore more time needs to be given to us to sort out what we want.
    What if Boris intimates that we will not be paying in any more money ?

    Would the EU let us stay for free ?
    We'd be in breach of treaty obligations in that case, they know they'd get their money sooner or later, probably sooner.
    Never stops the French from breaching their treay obligations.....
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,734
    148grss said:

    ...

    So gov has made it clear they will do what the Benn Act says, but courts may still write an injunction telling them they have to because the government isn't really trustworthy. Interesting.

    ....

    As the lawyers for the other side have argued, that would be a reasonable thing for the court to decide because the undertaking given to the court seems to directly contradict what Boris has been saying to parliament and to the public.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,229

    I dont understand rory's thinking, unless he has got high on his own supply of all the media pumping over his leadership bid. Despite all the positive media coverage, he was still never really in the running.

    He would be much better doing a david miliband and doing the international aid thing and then perhaps come back when things have moved on.

    Agree; plenty of 'high profile' people have found that without some on-the-ground support it's difficult to make an electoral break-though.

    Might be easier in the age of social media, but I don't think it'll make that much difference.
    How does George Galloway manage to do it? cf. Farage

    The man's an electoral genius (and afaia currently well compensated on a weekly basis for his current day job)
    Both Galloway and Farage find themselves some sort of OTG organisation fairly quickly. And the word I used was 'difficult'; remind me of how many general elections Farage, in particular has been successful in.
    cf. means Compare With in abbreviated latin
    I suspect Galloway only stands where there's something a reasonably supportive TU or similar organisation.
    I don't know how he does it - but as I say he's a bit of an Electoral Genius. He always manages to get the Muslims on side I know that much.
    Significantly more likely to go to Friday prayers than Christians are to go to church on Sunday.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-49921799

    Question for everyone.
    Whilst I have no doubt that O'Mara is not acting in the interests of ANY of his constituents, if the complaint is upheld, why wouldn't this apply to the seven Sinn Fein MPs, who also collect sacks of cash but do nothing for it?

    "In a letter to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards, a constituent alleges the MP has failed to act in the public interest and has used public money for his own benefit."

    Sinn Fein MPs are not expected by anyone to take their seat is the difference. You vote Sinn Fein, you're voting abstention.
This discussion has been closed.