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  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Can’t see there being an election before the spring - now with Jezza in the basement polling wiseZ

    How do they stop an election when they vote down the Queens Speech though?

    We've not had a government lose a vote on a QS since 1924 and at that point the pressure to disolve Parliament and have an election will be overwhelming IMO.
    But Labour would struggle to find the numbers to vote down the QS unless the rebel Tories vote against it. They would need the support of all the independents and also their own rebels such as Hoey and Mann who will probably not want to see the Tories ousted.
    I would expect Grieve , Bebb - and possibly Greening, Sandbach & now Stewart - to vote against the Queens Speech. Lady Hermon might well join them.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    Well there's a contrary poll by BMG.

    No figures?
    If they had been close the Indy would have them on the front page.
  • Well there's a contrary poll by BMG.

    No figures?
    Updated the post.

    Awaiting the full figures.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230

    viewcode said:

    It is quite incredible the range of numbers the pollsters are getting for the Tories.

    This will probably get me removed from the Opinium mailing list but at the last GE overestimated the Tory lead by a factor of nearly 3.
    "factor"? Did you mean "margin"?
    A factor of 3 (almost). They gave the Tories a 7% lead in their last poll. The actual result was a 2.4% lead for the Tories.
    Ah I see, thank you.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122

    LibDems taken a big hit after adopting revoking Art 50.
    I think it's just the LD bounce unwinding tbh. I'd also be wary of the Tory bounce. Let's wait until everything is calm and nothing special is going on.

    Er...
    Remind us how big the Labour bounce was...
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    viewcode said:

    It is quite incredible the range of numbers the pollsters are getting for the Tories.

    This will probably get me removed from the Opinium mailing list but at the last GE overestimated the Tory lead by a factor of nearly 3.
    "factor"? Did you mean "margin"?
    A factor of 3 (almost). They gave the Tories a 7% lead in their last poll. The actual result was a 2.4% lead for the Tories.
    To be fair to Opinium, until circa late August this pollster was not producing big Tory leads - or obviously out of line with other pollsters. I am not aware of any methodological changes but they are certainly now competing with Yougov for the biggest Tory leads - though on higher vote shares.
  • felix said:

    LibDems taken a big hit after adopting revoking Art 50.
    I think it's just the LD bounce unwinding tbh. I'd also be wary of the Tory bounce. Let's wait until everything is calm and nothing special is going on.

    Er...
    Remind us how big the Labour bounce was...
    Labour's conference was overshadowed by the Supremes.
  • FPT
    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    Who was it on here trying to find odds on Liverpool winning all their games til Christmas? Hope you took my advice and steered clear!

    Ahem.....
    :D
    Well that was bound to happen
    Next you'll be telling us to steer clear of Boris getting a deal then a thumping majority....
    I should add that I stand wholeheartedly by my advice that betting on Liverpool winning all their games before Christmas is best avoided. Obviously today was one of the trickier home matches, and they've squeaked over this hurdle, but I still have an extremely good chance of being shown to be right. Just... not today.
    That was me. I followed someone's advice in manually betting on a game and re-investing the winnings in the following game. Was very squeaky bum time today that's for sure!

    My accumulator after today is now in three-digits already. What I originally bet was a tiny sum and continuing this to Christmas if it wins would pay for a deposit on buying our own home, but I don't think I will have the willpower to keep this going until Christmas.

    I still think its very possble, nearly halfway to Christmas already. Man Utd away next game is the final "big 6" away game, Leicester today was a potential banana skin - Man City and Spurs and Merseyside Derby coming up are all at Anfield.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    DougSeal said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Can’t see there being an election before the spring - now with Jezza in the basement polling wiseZ

    How do they stop an election when they vote down the Queens Speech though?

    We've not had a government lose a vote on a QS since 1924 and at that point the pressure to disolve Parliament and have an election will be overwhelming IMO.
    Voting down the Queen’s Speech doesn’t trigger an election before 2022. Only a motion in one of the forms set out in the FTPA can do that. That’s the genius of the Act. The Queen’s Speech being voted down will have serious consequences. It’s just no one knows what they are yet.
    An election can be called by “passing a one-line bill stating that ‘notwithstanding the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, the next election will be on date, the FTPA act will continue to apply otherwise”
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/09/how-general-election-called
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    DougSeal said:


    Voting down the Queen’s Speech doesn’t trigger an election before 2022. Only a motion in one of the forms set out in the FTPA can do that. That’s the genius of the Act. The Queen’s Speech being voted down will have serious consequences. It’s just no one knows what they are yet.

    Voting down the QS and then refusing an election would be too stupid even for Corbyn.

    Just 2 minutes thinking of the absurdity of it would lead him to the conclusion there has to be a GE.
  • Big drop for the Lib Dems.

    Getting very, very close now to the 40% Tory share I've consistently predicted will be hit by the end of October.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    SunnyJim said:

    DougSeal said:


    Voting down the Queen’s Speech doesn’t trigger an election before 2022. Only a motion in one of the forms set out in the FTPA can do that. That’s the genius of the Act. The Queen’s Speech being voted down will have serious consequences. It’s just no one knows what they are yet.

    Voting down the QS and then refusing an election would be too stupid even for Corbyn.

    Just 2 minutes thinking of the absurdity of it would lead him to the conclusion there has to be a GE.
    We live in strange times . The absurd is now normal .
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    geoffw said:

    DougSeal said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Can’t see there being an election before the spring - now with Jezza in the basement polling wiseZ

    How do they stop an election when they vote down the Queens Speech though?

    We've not had a government lose a vote on a QS since 1924 and at that point the pressure to disolve Parliament and have an election will be overwhelming IMO.
    Voting down the Queen’s Speech doesn’t trigger an election before 2022. Only a motion in one of the forms set out in the FTPA can do that. That’s the genius of the Act. The Queen’s Speech being voted down will have serious consequences. It’s just no one knows what they are yet.
    An election can be called by “passing a one-line bill stating that ‘notwithstanding the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, the next election will be on date, the FTPA act will continue to apply otherwise”
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/09/how-general-election-called
    That’s the point I’m making. Simply voting down the Queen’s Speech won’t do it. And that would be a bill, requiring the Lords to pass it, rather than a simple Commons motion.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Big drop for the Lib Dems.

    Getting very, very close now to the 40% Tory share I've consistently predicted will be hit by the end of October.
    We saw 42% with Kantar back in August!
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    SunnyJim said:

    DougSeal said:


    Voting down the Queen’s Speech doesn’t trigger an election before 2022. Only a motion in one of the forms set out in the FTPA can do that. That’s the genius of the Act. The Queen’s Speech being voted down will have serious consequences. It’s just no one knows what they are yet.

    Voting down the QS and then refusing an election would be too stupid even for Corbyn.

    Just 2 minutes thinking of the absurdity of it would lead him to the conclusion there has to be a GE.

    It’s the FTPA that’s absurd. These are uncharted waters.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    edited October 2019

    Well there's a contrary poll by BMG.

    Seems it is don't knows --> unimpressed. Boris's core support steady at 35%.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited October 2019
    DougSeal said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Can’t see there being an election before the spring - now with Jezza in the basement polling wiseZ

    How do they stop an election when they vote down the Queens Speech though?

    We've not had a government lose a vote on a QS since 1924 and at that point the pressure to disolve Parliament and have an election will be overwhelming IMO.
    Voting down the Queen’s Speech doesn’t trigger an election before 2022. Only a motion in one of the forms set out in the FTPA can do that. That’s the genius of the Act. The Queen’s Speech being voted down will have serious consequences. It’s just no one knows what they are yet.
    I'm aware FTPA means a QS isn't technically a confidence matter... But seriousy if the government loses a QS for the first time in 95 years do you seriously think the demand for an election can be ignored?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    Well there's a contrary poll by BMG.

    Seems it is don't knows --> unimpressed. Boris's core support steady at 35%.
    It’s not clear what core support means . I can’t see any normal election polling .
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    GIN1138 said:

    DougSeal said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Can’t see there being an election before the spring - now with Jezza in the basement polling wiseZ

    How do they stop an election when they vote down the Queens Speech though?

    We've not had a government lose a vote on a QS since 1924 and at that point the pressure to disolve Parliament and have an election will be overwhelming IMO.
    Voting down the Queen’s Speech doesn’t trigger an election before 2022. Only a motion in one of the forms set out in the FTPA can do that. That’s the genius of the Act. The Queen’s Speech being voted down will have serious consequences. It’s just no one knows what they are yet.
    I'm aware FTPA means a QS isn't not a confidence matter... But seriousy if the government loses a QS for the first time in 95 years do you seriously think the demand for an election can be ignored?
    A VNOC would presumably follow the next day.
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377

    felix said:

    LibDems taken a big hit after adopting revoking Art 50.
    I think it's just the LD bounce unwinding tbh. I'd also be wary of the Tory bounce. Let's wait until everything is calm and nothing special is going on.

    Er...
    Remind us how big the Labour bounce was...
    Labour's conference was overshadowed by the Supremes.
    Fortunately for Labour.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262
    edited October 2019

    Big drop for the Lib Dems.

    Getting very, very close now to the 40% Tory share I've consistently predicted will be hit by the end of October.
    Do you mean you've consistently predicted one poll will show Cons hitting 40%? If so, that's quite different to Cons consistently hitting 40%.

    The average of the most recent 6 polls, including this one, is Cons = 33.5%.
  • justin124 said:

    Big drop for the Lib Dems.

    Getting very, very close now to the 40% Tory share I've consistently predicted will be hit by the end of October.
    We saw 42% with Kantar back in August!
    That seemed like an outlier and Kantar aren't too regular unless I'm mistaken.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545
    DougSeal said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Can’t see there being an election before the spring - now with Jezza in the basement polling wiseZ

    How do they stop an election when they vote down the Queens Speech though?

    We've not had a government lose a vote on a QS since 1924 and at that point the pressure to disolve Parliament and have an election will be overwhelming IMO.
    Voting down the Queen’s Speech doesn’t trigger an election before 2022. Only a motion in one of the forms set out in the FTPA can do that. That’s the genius of the Act. The Queen’s Speech being voted down will have serious consequences. It’s just no one knows what they are yet.
    This parliament has seen the government suffer multiple defeats on its flagship policy, namely Brexit. But it remains in office as it has not yet lost a VONC in the manner prescribed by the FTPA. If it loses a vote on the Queens Speech it will carry on as before.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545
    GIN1138 said:

    DougSeal said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Can’t see there being an election before the spring - now with Jezza in the basement polling wiseZ

    How do they stop an election when they vote down the Queens Speech though?

    We've not had a government lose a vote on a QS since 1924 and at that point the pressure to disolve Parliament and have an election will be overwhelming IMO.
    Voting down the Queen’s Speech doesn’t trigger an election before 2022. Only a motion in one of the forms set out in the FTPA can do that. That’s the genius of the Act. The Queen’s Speech being voted down will have serious consequences. It’s just no one knows what they are yet.
    I'm aware FTPA means a QS isn't technically a confidence matter... But seriousy if the government loses a QS for the first time in 95 years do you seriously think the demand for an election can be ignored?
    Certainly. The opposition are not going to give Johnson an election until after 31 October. Quite a long time after IMHO.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955

    DougSeal said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Can’t see there being an election before the spring - now with Jezza in the basement polling wiseZ

    How do they stop an election when they vote down the Queens Speech though?

    We've not had a government lose a vote on a QS since 1924 and at that point the pressure to disolve Parliament and have an election will be overwhelming IMO.
    Voting down the Queen’s Speech doesn’t trigger an election before 2022. Only a motion in one of the forms set out in the FTPA can do that. That’s the genius of the Act. The Queen’s Speech being voted down will have serious consequences. It’s just no one knows what they are yet.
    This parliament has seen the government suffer multiple defeats on its flagship policy, namely Brexit. But it remains in office as it has not yet lost a VONC in the manner prescribed by the FTPA. If it loses a vote on the Queens Speech it will carry on as before.
    The FTPA must be one of the least thought-out pieces of legislation ever put on the statute book. I mean, would people REALLY have voted it through if they had considered just for a moment it could lead to the current shambles?
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    DougSeal said:


    That’s the point I’m making. Simply voting down the Queen’s Speech won’t do it. And that would be a bill, requiring the Lords to pass it, rather than a simple Commons motion.

    I think we can all agree that the HoL desperately needs reforming.

    It would be unfortunate if they gave both main parties the ammunition for something more 'root and branch' with their actions in the lead up to a GE.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262
    nico67 said:

    Well there's a contrary poll by BMG.

    Seems it is don't knows --> unimpressed. Boris's core support steady at 35%.
    It’s not clear what core support means . I can’t see any normal election polling .
    The online text suggests that 35% approve of Boris's leadership but I agree, it's not clear.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Not sure what’s caused that Lib Dem drop. The revoke policy hasn’t really been in the news . I wonder whether it’s some Tory Remainers moving back seeing as Bozo has finally put a proposal forward .
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262

    DougSeal said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Can’t see there being an election before the spring - now with Jezza in the basement polling wiseZ

    How do they stop an election when they vote down the Queens Speech though?

    We've not had a government lose a vote on a QS since 1924 and at that point the pressure to disolve Parliament and have an election will be overwhelming IMO.
    Voting down the Queen’s Speech doesn’t trigger an election before 2022. Only a motion in one of the forms set out in the FTPA can do that. That’s the genius of the Act. The Queen’s Speech being voted down will have serious consequences. It’s just no one knows what they are yet.
    This parliament has seen the government suffer multiple defeats on its flagship policy, namely Brexit. But it remains in office as it has not yet lost a VONC in the manner prescribed by the FTPA. If it loses a vote on the Queens Speech it will carry on as before.
    The FTPA must be one of the least thought-out pieces of legislation ever put on the statute book. I mean, would people REALLY have voted it through if they had considered just for a moment it could lead to the current shambles?
    LOL I think the May and Johnson Tory governments have led to the current shambles. Still, if you want to blame it on an Act passed under another Tory PM, go for it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262
    nico67 said:

    Not sure what’s caused that Lib Dem drop. The revoke policy hasn’t really been in the news . I wonder whether it’s some Tory Remainers moving back seeing as Bozo has finally put a proposal forward .

    It's all just noise at this point.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    edited October 2019


    Certainly. The opposition are not going to give Johnson an election until after 31 October. Quite a long time after IMHO.

    The last thing the opposition want is to face the electorate so I agree an extension would be used up with more posturing and virtue signalling but little much else.

    It is why the government should resign once the QS and the deal is voted down.

    Drag Corbyn kicking and screaming to the ballot box to face judgement.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Hilarious .

    Bozo threatening to sabotage the EU and then in the same article going to be going round EU capitals to try and garner support for his deal .

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262
    Boris wants a GE... why doesn't he just resign then VoNC Corbyn?
  • nico67 said:

    Not sure what’s caused that Lib Dem drop. The revoke policy hasn’t really been in the news . I wonder whether it’s some Tory Remainers moving back seeing as Bozo has finally put a proposal forward .

    It's all just noise at this point.
    Lab to Con movement over Conference and Labour being more useless than usual, but masked a bit by a Lib to Lab movement as Liberals get closer and closer to ex-Tory remainers, if I had to come up with a theory.

    But it could indeed be noise.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136


    The FTPA must be one of the least thought-out pieces of legislation ever put on the statute book. I mean, would people REALLY have voted it through if they had considered just for a moment it could lead to the current shambles?

    If they'd known it would have the effect of preventing a future government from making the UK leave all its trading arrangements overnight against the express opposition of parliament, by scheduling an election over the time it would happen, I guess it would have gone through pretty much unanimously.
  • DougSeal said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Can’t see there being an election before the spring - now with Jezza in the basement polling wiseZ

    How do they stop an election when they vote down the Queens Speech though?

    We've not had a government lose a vote on a QS since 1924 and at that point the pressure to disolve Parliament and have an election will be overwhelming IMO.
    Voting down the Queen’s Speech doesn’t trigger an election before 2022. Only a motion in one of the forms set out in the FTPA can do that. That’s the genius of the Act. The Queen’s Speech being voted down will have serious consequences. It’s just no one knows what they are yet.
    This parliament has seen the government suffer multiple defeats on its flagship policy, namely Brexit. But it remains in office as it has not yet lost a VONC in the manner prescribed by the FTPA. If it loses a vote on the Queens Speech it will carry on as before.
    The FTPA must be one of the least thought-out pieces of legislation ever put on the statute book. I mean, would people REALLY have voted it through if they had considered just for a moment it could lead to the current shambles?
    The current situation is karma for May and Corbyn for breaking the spirit of the FTPA in 2017.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    nico67 said:

    Not sure what’s caused that Lib Dem drop. The revoke policy hasn’t really been in the news . I wonder whether it’s some Tory Remainers moving back seeing as Bozo has finally put a proposal forward .

    It's all just noise at this point.
    The poll is actually mildly encouraging for Labour to the extent that it shows a clear over the LDs. It could make it easier to win back Remain voters with the message - 'A LibDem vote is a vote for a Johnson Govt'.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    SunnyJim said:


    Certainly. The opposition are not going to give Johnson an election until after 31 October. Quite a long time after IMHO.

    The last thing the opposition want is to face the electorate so I agree and extension would be used up with more posturing and virtue signalling but little much else.

    It is why the government should resign once the QS and the deal is voted down.

    Drag Corbyn kicking and screaming to the ballot box to face judgement.
    Again, the genius of the FTPA means that if the Government resigns, there is no automatic election, and Corbyn probably gets asked to form a minority Government. Like it or not the opposition is not going to agree to an election with the current polling. They are going to leave it as long as possible.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106

    Boris wants a GE... why doesn't he just resign then VoNC Corbyn?

    I have been banging on for a while that this is the right move.

    Let the opposition vote down the QS and the deal then resign the government.

  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    DougSeal said:


    Again, the genius of the FTPA means that if the Government resigns, there is no automatic election, and Corbyn probably gets asked to form a minority Government. Like it or not the opposition is not going to agree to an election with the current polling. They are going to leave it as long as possible.

    You do know how the process works?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited October 2019
    Boris is threatening to go all Bullingdon in a posh restaurant....

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1180585538622910465?s=20
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    I wondered how he was going to dig himself out of the hole of having to extend.

    If Cameron's flounce was worth 5 points on his polling this will be dynamite.
  • Well there's a contrary poll by BMG.

    Seems it is don't knows --> unimpressed. Boris's core support steady at 35%.
    MarqueeMark channels HYUFD :lol:
  • DougSeal said:

    SunnyJim said:


    Certainly. The opposition are not going to give Johnson an election until after 31 October. Quite a long time after IMHO.

    The last thing the opposition want is to face the electorate so I agree and extension would be used up with more posturing and virtue signalling but little much else.

    It is why the government should resign once the QS and the deal is voted down.

    Drag Corbyn kicking and screaming to the ballot box to face judgement.
    Again, the genius of the FTPA means that if the Government resigns, there is no automatic election, and Corbyn probably gets asked to form a minority Government. Like it or not the opposition is not going to agree to an election with the current polling. They are going to leave it as long as possible.
    The longer the opposition hides from the electorate the more damage it will do to them.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    DougSeal said:

    SunnyJim said:


    Certainly. The opposition are not going to give Johnson an election until after 31 October. Quite a long time after IMHO.

    The last thing the opposition want is to face the electorate so I agree and extension would be used up with more posturing and virtue signalling but little much else.

    It is why the government should resign once the QS and the deal is voted down.

    Drag Corbyn kicking and screaming to the ballot box to face judgement.
    Again, the genius of the FTPA means that if the Government resigns, there is no automatic election, and Corbyn probably gets asked to form a minority Government. Like it or not the opposition is not going to agree to an election with the current polling. They are going to leave it as long as possible.
    I suspect that if Corbyn did become PM , he would get an initial significant bounce in the polls - and that may well explain part of the LD reluctance to support him.
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377
    justin124 said:

    nico67 said:

    Not sure what’s caused that Lib Dem drop. The revoke policy hasn’t really been in the news . I wonder whether it’s some Tory Remainers moving back seeing as Bozo has finally put a proposal forward .

    It's all just noise at this point.
    The poll is actually mildly encouraging for Labour to the extent that it shows a clear over the LDs. It could make it easier to win back Remain voters with the message - 'A LibDem vote is a vote for a Johnson Govt'.
    That may be one possible interpretation. You'll forgive me for mentioning clutching at straws?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    humbugger said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    Interesting poll. Con plus BXP at 50% and LD's down 5%. Will any other polls tonight show the same direction?
    It will be interesting to see whether 2017 Leave voters are less shy in their sample, or if the Con+BXP share comes from upweighting from those who still admit to voting Leave.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092

    DougSeal said:

    SunnyJim said:


    Certainly. The opposition are not going to give Johnson an election until after 31 October. Quite a long time after IMHO.

    The last thing the opposition want is to face the electorate so I agree and extension would be used up with more posturing and virtue signalling but little much else.

    It is why the government should resign once the QS and the deal is voted down.

    Drag Corbyn kicking and screaming to the ballot box to face judgement.
    Again, the genius of the FTPA means that if the Government resigns, there is no automatic election, and Corbyn probably gets asked to form a minority Government. Like it or not the opposition is not going to agree to an election with the current polling. They are going to leave it as long as possible.
    The longer the opposition hides from the electorate the more damage it will do to them.
    A self-reinforcing spiral of doom.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Boris is threatening to go all Bullingdon in a posh restaurant....

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1180585538622910465?s=20

    Pathetic. I suggest the OODA loopers consider Article 17 of the Treaty of the European Union.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited October 2019
    nico67 said:

    Not sure what’s caused that Lib Dem drop. The revoke policy hasn’t really been in the news . I wonder whether it’s some Tory Remainers moving back seeing as Bozo has finally put a proposal forward .

    That would be my guess, plus a bit of noise and the LDs dropping out of the news.

    The interesting upshot is that if getting a deal is popular, the voters wouldn't blame Boris for extending, and the EU are responding to his proposal in the tone of "this doesn't completely solve the problem, let's talk some more" instead of "a DUP veto on continued peace, 3 borders and a vast surveillance dystopia, this is the most ridiculous diplomatic proposal since Kushner tried to bring peace in the middle east", maybe what happens next it... nothing. Boris asks for an extension to continue discussions, the EU grant it, the voters don't mind too much, Labour continue failing and everybody forgets about politics for a few months.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The UK government continues to descend into the cesspit .

    Threatening to sabotage the EU to get a deal isn’t going to work .

    What next threatening to nuke Paris . The Tories don’t care what long term damage they do to relations , utterly despicable .

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955

    DougSeal said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Can’t see there being an election before the spring - now with Jezza in the basement polling wiseZ

    How do they stop an election when they vote down the Queens Speech though?

    We've not had a government lose a vote on a QS since 1924 and at that point the pressure to disolve Parliament and have an election will be overwhelming IMO.
    Voting down the Queen’s Speech doesn’t trigger an election before 2022. Only a motion in one of the forms set out in the FTPA can do that. That’s the genius of the Act. The Queen’s Speech being voted down will have serious consequences. It’s just no one knows what they are yet.
    This parliament has seen the government suffer multiple defeats on its flagship policy, namely Brexit. But it remains in office as it has not yet lost a VONC in the manner prescribed by the FTPA. If it loses a vote on the Queens Speech it will carry on as before.
    The FTPA must be one of the least thought-out pieces of legislation ever put on the statute book. I mean, would people REALLY have voted it through if they had considered just for a moment it could lead to the current shambles?
    LOL I think the May and Johnson Tory governments have led to the current shambles. Still, if you want to blame it on an Act passed under another Tory PM, go for it.
    I think many of our current political difficulties are down to two pieces of shite drafting: Article 50 and the FTPA.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Looks like they’ve given up on Hungary anyway. Onto the next mad scheme.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    If Boris did send Nige - I’d almost want us to stay in - for the lolZ 😆.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TGOHF2 said:

    If Boris did send Nige - I’d almost want us to stay in - for the lolZ 😆.

    He’d fail the relevant test for selection. Probably on all three criteria.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    Looks like they’ve given up on Hungary anyway. Onto the next mad scheme.

    Each of these is just trolling - winding up Remainers as they cower away from the ballot box.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092

    Looks like they’ve given up on Hungary anyway. Onto the next mad scheme.

    Bulgaria perhaps? Some nice properties on the sunny Black Sea coast.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TGOHF2 said:

    Looks like they’ve given up on Hungary anyway. Onto the next mad scheme.

    Each of these is just trolling - winding up Remainers as they cower away from the ballot box.
    The last election was two years ago. Just why are Leavers in such a rush to rerun one, but not another, democratic process?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    She applied for hundreds of jobs? And who has hundreds of emails relating to her apart from her?
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    Is the scandal that Boris letter didn’t swing the job for her ?

    I
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262

    DougSeal said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Can’t see there being an election before the spring - now with Jezza in the basement polling wiseZ

    How do they stop an election when they vote down the Queens Speech though?

    We've not had a government lose a vote on a QS since 1924 and at that point the pressure to disolve Parliament and have an election will be overwhelming IMO.
    Voting down the Queen’s Speech doesn’t trigger an election before 2022. Only a motion in one of the forms set out in the FTPA can do that. That’s the genius of the Act. The Queen’s Speech being voted down will have serious consequences. It’s just no one knows what they are yet.
    This parliament has seen the government suffer multiple defeats on its flagship policy, namely Brexit. But it remains in office as it has not yet lost a VONC in the manner prescribed by the FTPA. If it loses a vote on the Queens Speech it will carry on as before.
    The FTPA must be one of the least thought-out pieces of legislation ever put on the statute book. I mean, would people REALLY have voted it through if they had considered just for a moment it could lead to the current shambles?
    LOL I think the May and Johnson Tory governments have led to the current shambles. Still, if you want to blame it on an Act passed under another Tory PM, go for it.
    I think many of our current political difficulties are down to two pieces of shite drafting: Article 50 and the FTPA.
    Let's not forget the European Union Referendum Act 2015.

    Whether you are a Leaver or Remainer, this act has shafted you royally.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    The absolute rage of remainers when faced with a PM who isn't prepared to cower down meekly in the face of the EU.

    And the icing on the cake is that they will misunderstand the British psyche such that they think 'giving it back' to the EU will be unpopular.

    Regardless of the efficacy of the threat.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    My posts aren't being allowed so post 12109 is my last. Goodbye.

    But then how will we know what literally every devoted Corbynite is thinking?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    AndyJS said:
    Hmm - I keep getting told the tories and Boris are shit yet I look at the polls....
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    SunnyJim said:

    The absolute rage of remainers when faced with a PM who isn't prepared to cower down meekly in the face of the EU.

    And the icing on the cake is that they will misunderstand the British psyche such that they think 'giving it back' to the EU will be unpopular.

    Regardless of the efficacy of the threat.

    What makes you a better judge of the ‘British psyche’ as opposed to other people who are also British?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861

    Since I'm a good Muslim boy and don't drink alcohol can someone explain to me why this is product is against God and nature?

    https://twitter.com/TheGlenlivet/status/1179447297807147009

    Whether it's against God depends on what you believe. It's not against nature in any way, but those capsules are a waste of good whisky. Much of the enjoyment lies in being able to smell the stuff.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861
    Floater said:

    AndyJS said:
    Hmm - I keep getting told the tories and Boris are shit yet I look at the polls....
    Appropriate comment frome one called "floater"
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    SunnyJim said:

    The absolute rage of remainers when faced with a PM who isn't prepared to cower down meekly in the face of the EU.

    And the icing on the cake is that they will misunderstand the British psyche such that they think 'giving it back' to the EU will be unpopular.

    Regardless of the efficacy of the threat.

    Giving what back, it’s not the EU acting as if it WW2 !

    The government continues to shame the country. How do you expect to do a trade deal with the EU when Bozo and his cabinet are trashing relations .

    Maybe I don’t understand the British psyche, but it’s the UK government which is making this seem like a war with the EU not the other way round .

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262
    edited October 2019

    Boris is threatening to go all Bullingdon in a posh restaurant....

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1180585538622910465?s=20

    Pathetic. I suggest the OODA loopers consider Article 17 of the Treaty of the European Union.
    Just looked it up at your prompting, thanks:

    "The members of the Commission shall be chosen on the ground of their general competence and European commitment from persons whose independence is beyond doubt..."

    "...A member of the Commission shall resign if the President so requests."
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    .

    Boris is threatening to go all Bullingdon in a posh restaurant....

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1180585538622910465?s=20

    Pathetic. I suggest the OODA loopers consider Article 17 of the Treaty of the European Union.
    Just looked it up at your prompting, thanks:

    "The members of the Commission shall be chosen on the ground of their general competence and European commitment from persons whose independence is beyond doubt..."

    "...A member of the Commission shall resign if the President so requests."
    Doesn’t sound very democratic to me. Why shouldn’t a eurosceptic be able to have a position in a powerful organ of the EU?
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    The last election was two years ago. Just why are Leavers in such a rush to rerun one, but not another, democratic process?

    Because one result was implemented and the other wasn't.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262
    edited October 2019

    SunnyJim said:

    The absolute rage of remainers when faced with a PM who isn't prepared to cower down meekly in the face of the EU.

    And the icing on the cake is that they will misunderstand the British psyche such that they think 'giving it back' to the EU will be unpopular.

    Regardless of the efficacy of the threat.

    What makes you a better judge of the ‘British psyche’ as opposed to other people who are also British?
    You don't understand: the 'British psyche' is entirely owned by Leavers; the 50% or so of Briton who are Remainers don't count.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I don't think any politicians will want to hold a GE in December or January. So if it doesn't get called for November it'll be put off to February at the earliest.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Streeter said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    I still believe the following will happen.

    1. No deal negotiated with the EU (Benn Act made this certain)
    2. Boris resigns at last possible moment
    3. Corbyn fails to form a government
    4. Remainer faction forms a government
    5. Remainer factions extends
    6. Corbyn withdraws confidence, Remainer faction falls
    7. General Election called
    8. Tories campaign on deal or no deal manifesto
    9. Bunch of Tory deselections
    10. Tories win
    11. EU has backed itself into corner and can't compromise any further.
    12. No deal

    I think the sequence of events is much more likely to be

    1 Extension agreed
    2 Parliament legislates for second referendum
    3 Referendum held in the first half of 2020
    4 Remain wins after excluding a big chunk of Leave options
    5 Leavers do not accept result as legitimate due to rigged question
    6 Tories go into next election on Leave manifesto
    7 Tories win majority
    8 Brexit
    10 Sun turns red giant and engulfs the Earth
    11 HYUFD predicts Tory landslide.
    12 Con Takes Oort Cloud!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262
    AndyJS said:

    I don't think any politicians will want to hold a GE in December or January. So if it doesn't get called for November it'll be put off to February at the earliest.

    Agreed.

    But who will be PM through those months?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    RobD said:

    .

    Boris is threatening to go all Bullingdon in a posh restaurant....

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1180585538622910465?s=20

    Pathetic. I suggest the OODA loopers consider Article 17 of the Treaty of the European Union.
    Just looked it up at your prompting, thanks:

    "The members of the Commission shall be chosen on the ground of their general competence and European commitment from persons whose independence is beyond doubt..."

    "...A member of the Commission shall resign if the President so requests."
    Doesn’t sound very democratic to me. Why shouldn’t a eurosceptic be able to have a position in a powerful organ of the EU?
    So that idiots can’t play silly buggers in just the sort of way contemplated here.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262
    SunnyJim said:


    The last election was two years ago. Just why are Leavers in such a rush to rerun one, but not another, democratic process?

    Because one result was implemented and the other wasn't.
    Not sure that's true actually... Did I miss the foxhunting vote? Or the Social Care reforms?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SunnyJim said:


    The last election was two years ago. Just why are Leavers in such a rush to rerun one, but not another, democratic process?

    Because one result was implemented and the other wasn't.
    You had your chance. An exit deal was negotiated. Leavers spurned it.

    So the country moves on.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545
    blueblue said:

    My posts aren't being allowed so post 12109 is my last. Goodbye.

    But then how will we know what literally every devoted Corbynite is thinking?
    The Jezziah is still here I think?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    SunnyJim said:

    I wondered how he was going to dig himself out of the hole of having to extend.

    If Cameron's flounce was worth 5 points on his polling this will be dynamite.
    Have you thought this thru? He extends and throws a strop, and...

    1. Will this damage the EU? No. It gets problematic in June next year because of the budget, but even after that its more delay than destroy
    2. Will nominating an awkward EU Commissioner damage the EU? No, because the role of each commissioner is decided by the EU, so he could well end up as "Commissioner for paperclips" (if you think that's a joke, look at the other ones.)

    But if you genuinely feel that staying in and mocking the EU is the way to go, then please, please don't let me stop you. If you want to have a really long bit of really severe mocking (just so you can fully vent), please feel free to extend for many, many years. Knock yourself out. Stay in and mock them up until, ooh, 2022? That way he can get a really good strop on... :)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262
    edited October 2019
    Everyone's being a bit hard on Boris tbf... He's keeping to his word and making a Titanic success of Brexit. :wink:
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    AndyJS said:

    I don't think any politicians will want to hold a GE in December or January. So if it doesn't get called for November it'll be put off to February at the earliest.

    Agreed.

    But who will be PM through those months?
    Boris, shorely? He obviously wants to be PM, hence... everything he's done. Some of the voters will be narked off at him for taking an extension but he'll survive... maybe his 15-point lead collapses to 10...
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    Just looked it up at your prompting, thanks:

    "The members of the Commission shall be chosen on the ground of their general competence and European commitment from persons whose independence is beyond doubt..."

    "...A member of the Commission shall resign if the President so requests."

    Nice try, what does it really say?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    I don't think any politicians will want to hold a GE in December or January. So if it doesn't get called for November it'll be put off to February at the earliest.

    Agreed.

    But who will be PM through those months?
    Not sure.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262
    blueblue said:

    My posts aren't being allowed so post 12109 is my last. Goodbye.

    But then how will we know what literally every devoted Corbynite is thinking?
    Has BJO flounced?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262
    SunnyJim said:


    Just looked it up at your prompting, thanks:

    "The members of the Commission shall be chosen on the ground of their general competence and European commitment from persons whose independence is beyond doubt..."

    "...A member of the Commission shall resign if the President so requests."

    Nice try, what does it really say?
    https://eur-lex.europa.eu/resource.html?uri=cellar:2bf140bf-a3f8-4ab2-b506-fd71826e6da6.0023.02/DOC_1&format=PDF
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    RobD said:

    .

    Boris is threatening to go all Bullingdon in a posh restaurant....

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1180585538622910465?s=20

    Pathetic. I suggest the OODA loopers consider Article 17 of the Treaty of the European Union.
    Just looked it up at your prompting, thanks:

    "The members of the Commission shall be chosen on the ground of their general competence and European commitment from persons whose independence is beyond doubt..."

    "...A member of the Commission shall resign if the President so requests."
    Doesn’t sound very democratic to me. Why shouldn’t a eurosceptic be able to have a position in a powerful organ of the EU?
    Commissioners are there to support the EU not work against it. Would you support an MP in the Commons actively working to bring it down . I’ve never understood why Farage and the rest want to be MEPs , if they hate the place so much then why be part of it.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545

    SunnyJim said:


    The last election was two years ago. Just why are Leavers in such a rush to rerun one, but not another, democratic process?

    Because one result was implemented and the other wasn't.
    You had your chance. An exit deal was negotiated. Leavers spurned it.

    So the country moves on.
    Indeed. If we do not leave on 31 October we never will. And leavers will spend the rest of their lives blaming each other for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    viewcode said:

    SunnyJim said:

    I wondered how he was going to dig himself out of the hole of having to extend.

    If Cameron's flounce was worth 5 points on his polling this will be dynamite.
    Have you thought this thru? He extends and throws a strop, and...

    1. Will this damage the EU? No. It gets problematic in June next year because of the budget, but even after that its more delay than destroy
    2. Will nominating an awkward EU Commissioner damage the EU? No, because the role of each commissioner is decided by the EU, so he could well end up as "Commissioner for paperclips" (if you think that's a joke, look at the other ones.)

    But if you genuinely feel that staying in and mocking the EU is the way to go, then please, please don't let me stop you. If you want to have a really long bit of really severe mocking (just so you can fully vent), please feel free to extend for many, many years. Knock yourself out. Stay in and mock them up until, ooh, 2022? That way he can get a really good strop on... :)
    That's the point though, isn't it? Leavers feel like their guy is fighting for them, the EU isn't damaged in any material way, everybody wins... Just like Cameron's flounce, where he got a pretty decent polling boost and the rest of the EU just carried on and did what they'd been doing in the first place.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    viewcode said:


    Have you thought this thru? He extends and throws a strop, and...

    1. Will this damage the EU? No. It gets problematic in June next year because of the budget, but even after that its more delay than destroy
    2. Will nominating an awkward EU Commissioner damage the EU? No, because the role of each commissioner is decided by the EU, so he could well end up as "Commissioner for paperclips" (if you think that's a joke, look at the other ones.)

    But if you genuinely feel that staying in and mocking the EU is the way to go, then please, please don't let me stop you. If you want to have a really long bit of really severe mocking (just so you can fully vent), please feel free to extend for many, many years. Knock yourself out. Stay in and mock them up until, ooh, 2022? That way he can get a really good strop on... :)

    This would a tactical rather than strategic move.

    Its only purpose would be to mitigate the damage of extending.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262

    AndyJS said:

    I don't think any politicians will want to hold a GE in December or January. So if it doesn't get called for November it'll be put off to February at the earliest.

    Agreed.

    But who will be PM through those months?
    Boris, shorely? He obviously wants to be PM, hence... everything he's done. Some of the voters will be narked off at him for taking an extension but he'll survive... maybe his 15-point lead collapses to 10...
    Boris shorely? But will his premiership run aground?

    Actually, I think you may be right. Farage will have a field day though.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230

    Since I'm a good Muslim boy and don't drink alcohol can someone explain to me why this is product is against God and nature?

    https://twitter.com/TheGlenlivet/status/1179447297807147009

    Excellent! Whisky sweeties!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    .

    Boris is threatening to go all Bullingdon in a posh restaurant....

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1180585538622910465?s=20

    Pathetic. I suggest the OODA loopers consider Article 17 of the Treaty of the European Union.
    Just looked it up at your prompting, thanks:

    "The members of the Commission shall be chosen on the ground of their general competence and European commitment from persons whose independence is beyond doubt..."

    "...A member of the Commission shall resign if the President so requests."
    Doesn’t sound very democratic to me. Why shouldn’t a eurosceptic be able to have a position in a powerful organ of the EU?
    So that idiots can’t play silly buggers in just the sort of way contemplated here.
    I don’t think that’s a good enough excuse to block people with a legitimate viewpoint from being appointed.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861
    Then why don't you send your 7 MPs to Westminster to help prevent him from bullying Ireland?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262
    SunnyJim said:

    viewcode said:


    Have you thought this thru? He extends and throws a strop, and...

    1. Will this damage the EU? No. It gets problematic in June next year because of the budget, but even after that its more delay than destroy
    2. Will nominating an awkward EU Commissioner damage the EU? No, because the role of each commissioner is decided by the EU, so he could well end up as "Commissioner for paperclips" (if you think that's a joke, look at the other ones.)

    But if you genuinely feel that staying in and mocking the EU is the way to go, then please, please don't let me stop you. If you want to have a really long bit of really severe mocking (just so you can fully vent), please feel free to extend for many, many years. Knock yourself out. Stay in and mock them up until, ooh, 2022? That way he can get a really good strop on... :)

    This would a tactical rather than strategic move.

    Its only purpose would be to mitigate the damage of extending.
    Having a hissy fit mitigates the 'damage' of extending?
This discussion has been closed.