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SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited October 7 in General
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  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,090
    edited October 7
    Corbyn seems to have mislaid his populist touch. In 2017, Labour's messages were all good crowd-pleasing policies. This time? Nationalised pharma and abolishing private schools. The only people to whom they appeal are already voting Labour.

    I wonder if he really has reached his ceiling this time.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534
    Does he realistically have a choice? QTWAIN.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492
    I think Corbyn made up ground in the leadership ratings during the GE2017 campaign.

    The revival of the Lib Dems changes things though. There's an alternative opposition now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    When has a Leader of the Opposition third in net approval ratings behind both the PM and LD Leader ever become PM? Never
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,253
    He will do well to keep labour over 200 seats
  • Good news about Heidi Allen. One of the few defectors with a realistic hope of holding her seat. Of course the impact is rightly much reduced given the bizzare number of changes to her designation she's made this year and the fact she's already crossed the floor. Never the less bringing an incumbent into a national party brand and infrastructure is a step forward.

    As a non lawyer I've just finished reading the full Court of Session judgement. It's 18 pages and quite detailed but very easy for a lay person to follow the argument. It's skillfullly worded in clearly constraining the Govrrnment very heavily while refusing the actual petition. Having seen the full wording I'm even more reassured than I was by the summary. Well worth a read if you have the time.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534

    He will do well to keep labour over 200 seats

    Especially if he keeps running scared of an election!

    The longer the farce of a LOTO hiding from voters drags on the more pathetic he will look.

    Corbyn will be Ole Gunnar Solskjær to Boris as Jurgen Klopp.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,561
    HYUFD said:

    When has a Leader of the Opposition third in net approval ratings behind both the PM and LD Leader ever become PM? Never

    I cannot think of an opposition leader who wasn't leading in the ratings ever becoming PM never mind third
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,253
    Allen is another 'people's vote' person now backing revoke openly. Like a Cyndi Lauper tribute act
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,381
    edited October 7

    Does he realistically have a choice? QTWAIN.

    Yes! The ex-Cons are itching to do a GNU to get brexit done (softer PD + referendum), and the LibDems and the SNP would support it. All he has to do is select his favourite out of 250 or so non-team-Corbyn MPs for new PM, then whip his side for VONC -> VOC -> Brexit plan.

    This gives him maybe 6 months, after which he will probably still be personally unpopular, but at least they'll have either passed or revoked Brexit so they can fight on more favourable ground.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,330
    On Marr yesterday Shami said the election will be end of November or early December and you'd have to think she's speaking with Jezza's permission on that.

    Looks like it's actually about to happen! :D
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534

    Does he realistically have a choice? QTWAIN.

    Yes! The ex-Cons are itching to do a GNU to get brexit done (softer PD + referendum), and the LibDems and the SNP would support it. All he has to do is select his favourite out of 250 or so non-team-Corbyn MPs for new PM, then whip his side for VONC -> VOC -> Brexit plan.

    This gives him maybe 6 months, after which he will probably still be personally unpopular, but at least they'll have either passed or revoked Brexit so they can fight on more favourable ground.
    So your proposal is he lets someone on his side become PM for six whole months with Boris becoming the first ever leader of Her Majesties Only Opposition?

    Corbyn would become overnight a forgotten about, sidelined and inconsequential figure of history.
  • Re the James Forsyth stuff at the end of the last thread he's another brilliant journalist who's reputation has been badly damaged by Brexit. Printing verbatum a Downing Street statement as if it's some researched nugget is ludicrous. A press release would get more critical engagement. As for the text it's exactly what you'd expect them to say at this stage of the game of chicken.

    The fundamental contradiction in the No 10 position remains is they are running two contradictory messaging operations simultaniously. 1. We'll never extend 2. This is how we'll retaliate after we've extended.

    All politics is in statis till we see how the dynamics of them having to extend plays out.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534

    Re the James Forsyth stuff at the end of the last thread he's another brilliant journalist who's reputation has been badly damaged by Brexit. Printing verbatum a Downing Street statement as if it's some researched nugget is ludicrous. A press release would get more critical engagement. As for the text it's exactly what you'd expect them to say at this stage of the game of chicken.

    The fundamental contradiction in the No 10 position remains is they are running two contradictory messaging operations simultaniously. 1. We'll never extend 2. This is how we'll retaliate after we've extended.

    All politics is in statis till we see how the dynamics of them having to extend plays out.

    They're not contradictory.

    The message is simultaneously:

    1. We are clear that "we" are not asking for an extension.
    2. This lame duck Parliament is subverting us and asking for one, if you accept their request against our wishes then this is how we will respond.

    What's unreasonable about that? What was unreasonable of the Benn Act was to try and put the extension request in the PM's name when clearly it was not coming from the PM.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,381


    So your proposal is he lets someone on his side become PM for six whole months with Boris becoming the first ever leader of Her Majesties Only Opposition?

    Corbyn would become overnight a forgotten about, sidelined and inconsequential figure of history.

    If he could persuade the voters to forget about him that would do wonders for Labour's polling. But in practice they wouldn't, there would be opportunities for him to look serious and statesmanlike, and come the subsequent election it would be back to Corbyn vs Boris.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,330
    edited October 7

    Does he realistically have a choice? QTWAIN.

    Yes! The ex-Cons are itching to do a GNU to get brexit done (softer PD + referendum), and the LibDems and the SNP would support it. All he has to do is select his favourite out of 250 or so non-team-Corbyn MPs for new PM, then whip his side for VONC -> VOC -> Brexit plan.

    This gives him maybe 6 months, after which he will probably still be personally unpopular, but at least they'll have either passed or revoked Brexit so they can fight on more favourable ground.
    So your proposal is he lets someone on his side become PM for six whole months with Boris becoming the first ever leader of Her Majesties Only Opposition?

    Corbyn would become overnight a forgotten about, sidelined and inconsequential figure of history.
    Yep Shami was clear a GNU wasn't happening without Corbyn leading it (said the idrea of anyone other than Jezza leading it was "fantasy")

    Jezza will have to take his chances in an election because what other choice has he got without becoming an utter irrelevence?
  • Awb683Awb683 Posts: 78
    How can anyone seriously want Corbyn as PM???
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534


    So your proposal is he lets someone on his side become PM for six whole months with Boris becoming the first ever leader of Her Majesties Only Opposition?

    Corbyn would become overnight a forgotten about, sidelined and inconsequential figure of history.

    If he could persuade the voters to forget about him that would do wonders for Labour's polling. But in practice they wouldn't, there would be opportunities for him to look serious and statesmanlike, and come the subsequent election it would be back to Corbyn vs Boris.
    No, there will be opportunities for the PM to look serious and statesmanlike - and whoever is chosen as PM for the Labour Party could easily muster the threshold required to launch a leadership challenge against Corbyn to make taking over the leadership a formality.

    Corbyn has opportunities to appear serious and statesmanlike as LOTO, under your proposal he'd be neither PM no LOTO. It'd be insane for him to agree - one thing to do it for a week while a letter gets sent, another thing entirely to trust someone for six whole months.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221
    Calm down everyone, there's not going to be an election before March next year...
    Winter is a-coming in
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888

    HYUFD said:

    When has a Leader of the Opposition third in net approval ratings behind both the PM and LD Leader ever become PM? Never

    I cannot think of an opposition leader who wasn't leading in the ratings ever becoming PM never mind third
    Possibly Heath in 1970 was the last yes but his rating even then was significantly higher than Corbyn's now
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,330
    edited October 7

    Calm down everyone, there's not going to be an election before March next year...
    Winter is a-coming in

    I'm sure the lovely Shami knows more about this than you do. ;)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,006

    Allen is another 'people's vote' person now backing revoke openly. Like a Cyndi Lauper tribute act

    That's a terrible thing to say: Heidi Allen is entirely in favour of a people's vote. So long as it's her people doing the voting.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,360
    Awb683 said:

    How can anyone seriously want Corbyn as PM???

    How can anyone want the current clown, Boris Johnson as PM?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221
    GIN1138 said:

    Calm down everyone, there's not going to be an election before March next year...
    Winter is a-coming in

    I'm sure the lovely Shami knows more about this than you do. ;)
    Very probably, but she's not posting on here, and I am :wink:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,006
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221
    rcs1000 said:
    How ironic if we end up with another Tory minority government... What then?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,381


    No, there will be opportunities for the PM to look serious and statesmanlike - and whoever is chosen as PM for the Labour Party could easily muster the threshold required to launch a leadership challenge against Corbyn to make taking over the leadership a formality.

    It's up to him but if I was him I wouldn't pick a Labour MP, for that reason. (An ex-Tory is tough for Labour to swallow for other reasons, the solution is Sylvia Hermon.)

    I'm not saying this setup is *great* for Corbyn but as things stand he's heading to give Boris Johnson a majority and end his career in failure. You said he had no way to avoid this, but he does have a way to avoid this, and IMHO he'd be wise to roll the dice on it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,330
    edited October 7
    HYUFD said:
    The key is that 13% for BXP.

    I think they'll poll half of that in reality... The 2019 UK general election will be the final time Leave voters have to secure Brexit... And the only way to secure it will be by voting Conservative.

    In 2017 Leave voters believed the other parties about respecting the refernedum result and so along with Theresa's dreadful campaign the Leave vote split all over the place.

    Leavers won't make that mistake again...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    rcs1000 said:
    The SNP were on just 35% in the last YouGov Scottish subsample and the Tories increased their voteshare in an Aberdeen council by election last Thursday so the SNP may not be doing much better than that after all
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,104

    I think Corbyn made up ground in the leadership ratings during the GE2017 campaign.

    The revival of the Lib Dems changes things though. There's an alternative opposition now.

    Pro LD: Less toxic than last time; clear pitch for the 48pc; new leader.. up against divisive opponents.

    Anti LD: Labour could repeat 2017 by generally just sitting there making ominous noises about a split lefty vote letting in a majority BJ govt.

    With FPTP, LDs really need a hell of a momentum to get anywhere near “alternative opposition” status in the HOC.

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 3,256
    edited October 7
    rcs1000 said:
    Many of those individual seat changes look completely implausible (e.g. LibDems gain Cambridge or Tories take Lanark & Hamilton East).

    I don't think the LibDems will take 5 Labour seats.

    Probably only Sheffield Hallam, assuming the voters there have forgotten about the mendacious former LibDem MP for the seat.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221
    FPT:
    TGOHF2 said:
    The government is going to be a fecking laughing stock in November when we've extended and these start hitting the streets. :lol:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,733
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,330
    edited October 7

    FPT:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The government is going to be a fecking laughing stock in November when we've extended and these start hitting the streets. :lol:
    8 in 10 voters will blame Parliament not Boris apparently (as myself and @Philip_Thompson have been saying)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221
    Yes but it's not up there with Opinium... now that's an outlier's outlier!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534

    FPT:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The government is going to be a fecking laughing stock in November when we've extended and these start hitting the streets. :lol:
    No, the lameduck Parliament that is too chicken to face the voters or VONC the PM will.

    Voters know who is responsible.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,231
    Awb683 said:

    How can anyone seriously want Corbyn as PM???

    I dunno. How can anyone seriously want the "gaping moral vacuum where the office of Prime Minister used to be" that's currently there?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221
    GIN1138 said:

    FPT:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The government is going to be a fecking laughing stock in November when we've extended and these start hitting the streets. :lol:
    8 in 10 voters will blame Parliament not Boris apparently (as myself and @Philip_Thompson have been saying)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/
    "...the ComRes survey for the Telegraph found that only just over half of voters (56 per cent) would blame Mr Johnson if Brexit does not happen on October 31."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418
    GIN1138 said:

    FPT:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The government is going to be a fecking laughing stock in November when we've extended and these start hitting the streets. :lol:
    8 in 10 voters will blame Parliament not Boris apparently (as myself and @Philip_Thompson have been saying)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/
    Gonna be a clear out......whenever we get that election. The longer it takes, the bigger it will be.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,330

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The government is going to be a fecking laughing stock in November when we've extended and these start hitting the streets. :lol:
    8 in 10 voters will blame Parliament not Boris apparently (as myself and @Philip_Thompson have been saying)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/
    "...the ComRes survey for the Telegraph found that only just over half of voters (56 per cent) would blame Mr Johnson if Brexit does not happen on October 31."
    Wait until he's addressed the nation on the day the letter gets sent. ;)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The government is going to be a fecking laughing stock in November when we've extended and these start hitting the streets. :lol:
    8 in 10 voters will blame Parliament not Boris apparently (as myself and @Philip_Thompson have been saying)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/
    Gonna be a clear out......whenever we get that election. The longer it takes, the bigger it will be.
    Nonsense and you know it. Whichever way the GE goes most MPs will retain their seats.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,006

    rcs1000 said:
    Many of those individual seat changes look completely implausible (e.g. LibDems gain Cambridge or Tories take Lanark & Hamilton East).

    I don't think the LibDems will take 5 Labour seats.

    Probably only Sheffield Hallam, assuming the voters there have forgotten about the mendacious former LibDem MP for the seat.
    I think London might see a few LD gains, more in leafy Remainia than the urban core.

    So while five seems like a lot, don't forget that Labour has lost 40% of its vote since the last election.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,330

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The government is going to be a fecking laughing stock in November when we've extended and these start hitting the streets. :lol:
    8 in 10 voters will blame Parliament not Boris apparently (as myself and @Philip_Thompson have been saying)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/
    Gonna be a clear out......whenever we get that election. The longer it takes, the bigger it will be.
    Will be an entertaining election night. :D
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,733

    FPT:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The government is going to be a fecking laughing stock in November when we've extended and these start hitting the streets. :lol:
    No, the lameduck Parliament that is too chicken to face the voters or VONC the PM will.

    Voters know who is responsible.
    If the 17.4 million who voted Leave still want to Leave, they will do so in a second referendum.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    In a boost for the Prime Minister as he comes under increasing pressure to extend Article 50, the ComRes survey for the Telegraph found that only just over half of voters (56 per cent) would blame Mr Johnson if Brexit does not happen on October 31.

    That compares with more than eight in ten voters (83 per cent) who said they would blame Parliament, while 70 per cent said they would hold Remain MPs responsible and nearly two thirds (63 per cent) would point the finger at the European Commission.

    The findings come after it emerged...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The government is going to be a fecking laughing stock in November when we've extended and these start hitting the streets. :lol:
    8 in 10 voters will blame Parliament not Boris apparently (as myself and @Philip_Thompson have been saying)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/
    "...the ComRes survey for the Telegraph found that only just over half of voters (56 per cent) would blame Mr Johnson if Brexit does not happen on October 31."
    Wait until he's addressed the nation on the day the letter gets sent. ;)
    Will that be his "I died in a ditch" speech?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:
    Many of those individual seat changes look completely implausible (e.g. LibDems gain Cambridge or Tories take Lanark & Hamilton East).

    I don't think the LibDems will take 5 Labour seats.

    Probably only Sheffield Hallam, assuming the voters there have forgotten about the mendacious former LibDem MP for the seat.
    I think London might see a few LD gains, more in leafy Remainia than the urban core.

    So while five seems like a lot, don't forget that Labour has lost 40% of its vote since the last election.
    Point of order: until the next GE it's not possible to say that Labour has lost any of its vote. Elections are elections; opinion polls are guesses.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,330
    edited October 7

    FPT:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The government is going to be a fecking laughing stock in November when we've extended and these start hitting the streets. :lol:
    No, the lameduck Parliament that is too chicken to face the voters or VONC the PM will.

    Voters know who is responsible.
    If the 17.4 million who voted Leave still want to Leave, they will do so in a second referendum.
    Nope. General election 28th November or 5th December. Shami said so on national television yesterday and she's right in the heart of Jezza's inner-sanctum so she'd be speaking with his permission.

    I was surprised her comments didn't get much attention yesterday,
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    Newsnight says the UK Government will make clear that EU countries who back further delay to Brexit will go to the back of the queue for future defence cooperation etc
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,330

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The government is going to be a fecking laughing stock in November when we've extended and these start hitting the streets. :lol:
    8 in 10 voters will blame Parliament not Boris apparently (as myself and @Philip_Thompson have been saying)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/
    "...the ComRes survey for the Telegraph found that only just over half of voters (56 per cent) would blame Mr Johnson if Brexit does not happen on October 31."
    Wait until he's addressed the nation on the day the letter gets sent. ;)
    Will that be his "I died in a ditch" speech?
    You know what he's going to say... And he'll say it perfectly.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221
    HYUFD said:

    Newsnight says the UK Government will make clear that EU countries who back further delay to Brexit will go to the back of the queue for future defence cooperation etc

    Are we running a protection racket now?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,957
    HYUFD said:

    Newsnight says the UK Government will make clear that EU countries who back further delay to Brexit will go to the back of the queue for future defence cooperation etc

    The childishness is tiresome.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 472

    HYUFD said:

    Newsnight says the UK Government will make clear that EU countries who back further delay to Brexit will go to the back of the queue for future defence cooperation etc

    Are we running a protection racket now?
    And i'm sure you were saying that when Obama was trying to bully voters in to remaining.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534

    FPT:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The government is going to be a fecking laughing stock in November when we've extended and these start hitting the streets. :lol:
    No, the lameduck Parliament that is too chicken to face the voters or VONC the PM will.

    Voters know who is responsible.
    If the 17.4 million who voted Leave still want to Leave, they will do so in a second referendum.
    Be Leave in Britain Sunil!

    The voters voted to Leave already. If they want to rejoin after we've left then lets have a vote on that.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,957
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The government is going to be a fecking laughing stock in November when we've extended and these start hitting the streets. :lol:
    8 in 10 voters will blame Parliament not Boris apparently (as myself and @Philip_Thompson have been saying)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/
    "...the ComRes survey for the Telegraph found that only just over half of voters (56 per cent) would blame Mr Johnson if Brexit does not happen on October 31."
    Wait until he's addressed the nation on the day the letter gets sent. ;)
    Will that be his "I died in a ditch" speech?
    You know what he's going to say... And he'll say it perfectly.
    “I’ve failed and therefore I resign” hopefully.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The government is going to be a fecking laughing stock in November when we've extended and these start hitting the streets. :lol:
    8 in 10 voters will blame Parliament not Boris apparently (as myself and @Philip_Thompson have been saying)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/
    "...the ComRes survey for the Telegraph found that only just over half of voters (56 per cent) would blame Mr Johnson if Brexit does not happen on October 31."
    Wait until he's addressed the nation on the day the letter gets sent. ;)
    Will that be his "I died in a ditch" speech?
    You know what he's going to say... And he'll say it perfectly.
    Yep, he's going to say: "All very regrettable, wiffle-waffle, piffle-paffle, didn't want to do it, surrender bill, blah-blah not my fault - I'm merely the PM, blah-blah-blah.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534

    HYUFD said:

    Newsnight says the UK Government will make clear that EU countries who back further delay to Brexit will go to the back of the queue for future defence cooperation etc

    Are we running a protection racket now?
    If you mean are we offering protection and expecting favours back . . . yes. For the last half a millenia roughly and the better part of the last century with our real allies in the USA etc.

    If Europe doesn't want to pay its own way for defence then we should use what influence we do have.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The government is going to be a fecking laughing stock in November when we've extended and these start hitting the streets. :lol:
    8 in 10 voters will blame Parliament not Boris apparently (as myself and @Philip_Thompson have been saying)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/
    "...the ComRes survey for the Telegraph found that only just over half of voters (56 per cent) would blame Mr Johnson if Brexit does not happen on October 31."
    Wait until he's addressed the nation on the day the letter gets sent. ;)
    Will that be his "I died in a ditch" speech?
    You know what he's going to say... And he'll say it perfectly.
    “I’ve failed and therefore I resign” hopefully.
    @HYUFD has assured us on numerous occasions he will resign rather than extend.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 984
    GIN1138 said:

    FPT:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The government is going to be a fecking laughing stock in November when we've extended and these start hitting the streets. :lol:
    No, the lameduck Parliament that is too chicken to face the voters or VONC the PM will.

    Voters know who is responsible.
    If the 17.4 million who voted Leave still want to Leave, they will do so in a second referendum.
    Nope. General election 28th November or 5th December. Shami said so on national television yesterday and she's right in the heart of Jezza's inner-sanctum so she'd be speaking with his permission.

    I was surprised her comments didn't get much attention yesterday,
    Still, it seems hard to fathom, an election near Christmas when it get darks at 3.30pm up north. Grim.
  • eggegg Posts: 414

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The government is going to be a fecking laughing stock in November when we've extended and these start hitting the streets. :lol:
    8 in 10 voters will blame Parliament not Boris apparently (as myself and @Philip_Thompson have been saying)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/
    "...the ComRes survey for the Telegraph found that only just over half of voters (56 per cent) would blame Mr Johnson if Brexit does not happen on October 31."
    Question is very much like my half Italian mate, it’s the wrong half that’s Italian.

    This is a betting site, the value bet is betting brexit happening before 1 Nov because this has to be becoming longer odds now yet at same time there’s a small chance it might actually happen. The more interesting market now is not the certainty of extension but it’s length, I think it would be much more than three months for many reasons, the winter months are coming, next to zero chance of UK election in winter plus it’s blocked by labour who to be fair to them would come out worst from it, 31st was chosen because after that we are into new EU, so once in new EU 6th month 9 or 12 months extension means nothing to them and seem most likely to me.

    Meanwhile, I am confident that not only will Boris agree this extension, but zilch harm will come of it in the polls. 30 to 35 % of electorate will vote for Boris when that election comes, when he extends his poll lead will hardly drop, it won’t be going to brexit.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 472


    If the 17.4 million who voted Leave still want to Leave, they will do so in a second referendum.

    ...and a third one if we still don't vote the right way.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,784
    edited October 7
    HYUFD said:

    Newsnight says the UK Government will make clear that EU countries who back further delay to Brexit will go to the back of the queue for future defence cooperation etc

    Based on Forsythe (aka Cummings) piece earlier.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,733
    SunnyJim said:


    If the 17.4 million who voted Leave still want to Leave, they will do so in a second referendum.

    ...and a third one if we still don't vote the right way.
    Are you worried you might lose?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 2,093
    The difference between "satisfied" and "approval" for Corbyn v Johnson is -16 vs -32. That seems quite significant. Which is likely to be more powerful in predicting voter behaviour?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,957

    HYUFD said:

    Newsnight says the UK Government will make clear that EU countries who back further delay to Brexit will go to the back of the queue for future defence cooperation etc

    Are we running a protection racket now?
    If you mean are we offering protection and expecting favours back . . . yes. For the last half a millenia roughly and the better part of the last century with our real allies in the USA etc.

    If Europe doesn't want to pay its own way for defence then we should use what influence we do have.
    Are you so shortsighted that you don’t get that a free and safe Europe is good for Britain in its own right?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,935
    Utter delusion and desperation from the lunatics in no 10.

    What next will they start nuking Paris and Berlin.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 472


    Are you worried you might lose?

    By the 10th confirmatory confirmatory indicative final referendum there is always that possibility.
  • eggegg Posts: 414
    Nikki Haley (a value long term tie up bet for first female president of the US) publicly criticising The Donald today was an interesting moment...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,762
    nico67 said:

    Utter delusion and desperation from the lunatics in no 10.

    What next will they start nuking Paris and Berlin.

    Well Paris is a shit hole.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221

    nico67 said:

    Utter delusion and desperation from the lunatics in no 10.

    What next will they start nuking Paris and Berlin.

    Well Paris is a shit hole.
    Last time I went it was utterly lovely.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,221
    Right, night all - happy speculating!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534

    HYUFD said:

    Newsnight says the UK Government will make clear that EU countries who back further delay to Brexit will go to the back of the queue for future defence cooperation etc

    Are we running a protection racket now?
    If you mean are we offering protection and expecting favours back . . . yes. For the last half a millenia roughly and the better part of the last century with our real allies in the USA etc.

    If Europe doesn't want to pay its own way for defence then we should use what influence we do have.
    Are you so shortsighted that you don’t get that a free and safe Europe is good for Britain in its own right?
    Depends? Is Europe so short-sighted that they think screwing over the country paying for its defence is a bad idea in its own right?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    edited October 7
    Programme for the Final Canadian leaders debate before the 21st October general election just started

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,762
    Talking of security, this seems a rather big story....

    US withdrawal from Syria leaves fate of Isis fighters and families in detention uncertain

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/07/us-withdrawal-from-syria-leaves-fate-of-isis-fighters-and-families-in-detention-uncertain
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 1,343
    HYUFD said:

    Newsnight says the UK Government will make clear that EU countries who back further delay to Brexit will go to the back of the queue for future defence cooperation etc

    I hear 27 governments saying "oohhh, i'm scared"!
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,090
    "More than 10million Brexit 50p coins will be minted over the next 12 months"

    Well, I guess that's one way to drive the transition to a cashless society.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,957

    HYUFD said:

    Newsnight says the UK Government will make clear that EU countries who back further delay to Brexit will go to the back of the queue for future defence cooperation etc

    Are we running a protection racket now?
    If you mean are we offering protection and expecting favours back . . . yes. For the last half a millenia roughly and the better part of the last century with our real allies in the USA etc.

    If Europe doesn't want to pay its own way for defence then we should use what influence we do have.
    Are you so shortsighted that you don’t get that a free and safe Europe is good for Britain in its own right?
    Depends? Is Europe so short-sighted that they think screwing over the country paying for its defence is a bad idea in its own right?
    So we’re prepared to make our own situation worse to what? Prove a point?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,762
    HYUFD said:

    Programme for the Final Canadian leaders debate before the 21st October general election just started

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VRliFlrvfA

    I think they should do it in fancy dress.....
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,862

    SunnyJim said:


    If the 17.4 million who voted Leave still want to Leave, they will do so in a second referendum.

    ...and a third one if we still don't vote the right way.
    Are you worried you might lose?
    Your born again remainer stance is the worst.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534
    If the EU don't want us as allies and friendly neighbours then why shouldn't they be left to their own devices?

    I want a deal not a cold war but if they opt to try and annex part of our country then they're big enough and ugly enough to look after themselves and we need to look after ourselves. Its funny how people who seem so confident the EU is so mighty and powerful and puny Britain doesn't matter seem horrified at the idea that Britain might not defend mighty Europe anymore.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 1,343

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The government is going to be a fecking laughing stock in November when we've extended and these start hitting the streets. :lol:
    8 in 10 voters will blame Parliament not Boris apparently (as myself and @Philip_Thompson have been saying)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/
    "...the ComRes survey for the Telegraph found that only just over half of voters (56 per cent) would blame Mr Johnson if Brexit does not happen on October 31."
    Wait until he's addressed the nation on the day the letter gets sent. ;)
    Will that be his "I died in a ditch" speech?
    The Daily Mirror already has the photoshopped picture.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 472
    nico67 said:

    Utter delusion and desperation from the lunatics in no 10.

    What next will they start nuking Paris and Berlin.

    It's reassuring to have a PM prepared to use our arsenal in defence of the country rather than cowering in a corner like a whipped dog.

    I do agree however that peremptory attacks on Paris and Berlin are a little over the top.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,862
    HYUFD said:

    Programme for the Final Canadian leaders debate before the 21st October general election just started

    Is that Trudeau in the middle?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,762
    Who says its grim up north...

    Manchester restaurant wins city’s first Michelin star in 40 years

    https://www.theguardian.com/food/2019/oct/07/manchester-restaurant-wins-citys-first-michelin-star-in-40-years
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 1,955
    edited October 7
    dr_spyn said:
    Why aren't ComRes comparing this poll to one on 24th September which had Con 27%, Lab 27%, LD 20%, BRX 17%? That was also a Telegraph/ComRes poll.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 1,343

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The government is going to be a fecking laughing stock in November when we've extended and these start hitting the streets. :lol:
    8 in 10 voters will blame Parliament not Boris apparently (as myself and @Philip_Thompson have been saying)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/
    Gonna be a clear out......whenever we get that election. The longer it takes, the bigger it will be.
    Nonsense and you know it. Whichever way the GE goes most MPs will retain their seats.
    Agreed.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,734
    HYUFD said:

    Newsnight says the UK Government will make clear that EU countries who back further delay to Brexit will go to the back of the queue for future defence cooperation etc

    So the EU27 will stay entirely unified.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 984

    nico67 said:

    Utter delusion and desperation from the lunatics in no 10.

    What next will they start nuking Paris and Berlin.

    Well Paris is a shit hole.
    Last time I went it was utterly lovely.
    Guess what, like every other major world city it has its lovely parts and its grim bits. Calling it a shithole is ignorance of the first order.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,957
    edited October 7

    If the EU don't want us as allies and friendly neighbours then why shouldn't they be left to their own devices?

    I want a deal not a cold war but if they opt to try and annex part of our country then they're big enough and ugly enough to look after themselves and we need to look after ourselves. Its funny how people who seem so confident the EU is so mighty and powerful and puny Britain doesn't matter seem horrified at the idea that Britain might not defend mighty Europe anymore.

    It doesn’t really matter what you say because we’ll continue to work with European countries for defence purposes regardless of what empty threats the Government comes out with because we benefit from them.

    Its as simple as that.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,324

    nico67 said:

    Utter delusion and desperation from the lunatics in no 10.

    What next will they start nuking Paris and Berlin.

    Well Paris is a shit hole.
    Moron
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,762

    nico67 said:

    Utter delusion and desperation from the lunatics in no 10.

    What next will they start nuking Paris and Berlin.

    Well Paris is a shit hole.
    Last time I went it was utterly lovely.
    Guess what, like every other major world city it has its lovely parts and its grim bits. Calling it a shithole is ignorance of the first order.
    Its a long running joke on here, when TSE thought he might be relocating there for work.
  • eggegg Posts: 414

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The government is going to be a fecking laughing stock in November when we've extended and these start hitting the streets. :lol:
    8 in 10 voters will blame Parliament not Boris apparently (as myself and @Philip_Thompson have been saying)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/
    "...the ComRes survey for the Telegraph found that only just over half of voters (56 per cent) would blame Mr Johnson if Brexit does not happen on October 31."
    Wait until he's addressed the nation on the day the letter gets sent. ;)
    Will that be his "I died in a ditch" speech?
    You know what he's going to say... And he'll say it perfectly.
    “I’ve failed and therefore I resign” hopefully.
    @HYUFD has assured us on numerous occasions he will resign rather than extend.
    Johnson will extend. It’s certain now, but it won’t damage him, his supporters won’t blame him for it. HY always argued Alex the Great won’t extend because of how many supporters would go to UKIP. But it’s certain now they won’t. None of the 35% plus who are certain to vote for him in GE will not only stick with him, but as their anger towards opposition parties for extending this purgatory grows, so will leavers sympathy grow for Boris messed around by those opposition parties. For remainiacs it will be a Pyrrhic victory, less popular with public and brexit still not cancelled.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,324
    HYUFD said:

    Newsnight says the UK Government will make clear that EU countries who back further delay to Brexit will go to the back of the queue for future defence cooperation etc

    LOL!!!!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,762
    edited October 7
    Roger said:

    nico67 said:

    Utter delusion and desperation from the lunatics in no 10.

    What next will they start nuking Paris and Berlin.

    Well Paris is a shit hole.
    Moron
    IT WAS A JOKE....there is a long standing joke about it on here.

    However, in all seriousness, it is far from my favourite European city.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,701

    If the EU don't want us as allies and friendly neighbours then why shouldn't they be left to their own devices?

    I want a deal not a cold war but if they opt to try and annex part of our country then they're big enough and ugly enough to look after themselves and we need to look after ourselves. Its funny how people who seem so confident the EU is so mighty and powerful and puny Britain doesn't matter seem horrified at the idea that Britain might not defend mighty Europe anymore.

    It doesn’t really matter what you say because we’ll continue to work with European countries for defence purposes regardless of what empty threats the Government comes out with because we benefit from them.

    Its as simple as that.

    Exactly. Making UK citizens poorer and less free is one thing. Making them less safe is something else completely.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534

    Who says its grim up north...

    Manchester restaurant wins city’s first Michelin star in 40 years

    https://www.theguardian.com/food/2019/oct/07/manchester-restaurant-wins-citys-first-michelin-star-in-40-years

    Quaint to see someone from Manchester winning something.
This discussion has been closed.