Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets it’s now a 74% chance that a general el

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited October 8 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets it’s now a 74% chance that a general election will happen BEFORE a UK exit from the EU

There are too many examples in political betting when favourites have not won to make the assertion that betting can be predictive. What historical trends do show, as in the above betdata.io chart, is how those ready to risk their cash on the Betfair exchange are seeing things at a given moment.

Read the full story here


«13456

Comments

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,314
    Wow! More Brexit!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 9,553
    edited October 8
    Bring back pasty-gate
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307


    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,570
    Jonathan said:

    Wow! More Brexit!

    I think you may have to reconcile yourself to Brexit being quite an important topic over the next 2-3 weeks at least.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,607
    BJ and the Tories are playing games with peoples lives. It is time to remove BJ with an alternative Government....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Of those two ? Hammond I reckon, Hunt is very in Boris' tent now.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,570



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,253
    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492
    edited October 8



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Former member of Theresa May's cabinet does not preclude current member of Boris Johnson's cabinet.

    I wouldn't have thought that Hammond would be shy of making a similar criticism publicly, but a current member of Johnson's cabinet would be more circumspect.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    God give me the confidence of the death cultists.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,570

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    Right. Well, if you need sane people too, then the propaganda needs to be tailored to the sane.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,511
    Pulpstar said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Of those two ? Hammond I reckon, Hunt is very in Boris' tent now.
    That dry humour sounds like David Gauke to me.

  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 568
    FPT:

    This looks like the start of a pivot to a No Deal GE platform. If Farage does stand down, Boris will gobble up the BXP vote.

    He won't stand down, his ego won't allow him to. But Boris might still gobble up his vote sufficiently to win the GE.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    Vote Revoke and move on from Brexit!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,035
    The logic of permanent Customs Union for Ireland inevitably follows from the professed desire for no border facilities. This is our government's policy, so why castigate Angela for it. We agreed it long ago.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 568
    Is Parliament still being prorogued today? Do they have time to lay down a VoNC?
    A better question, do they have the guts to do so? (No, they don't)
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 510
    Another opening post that hurts my head to read
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,253

    Is Parliament still being prorogued today? Do they have time to lay down a VoNC?
    A better question, do they have the guts to do so? (No, they don't)

    It is. Reopening Monday. I think it's too late for a VONC
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 510



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Sounds like Spreadshit's "humour"
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,048
    Foxy said:

    The logic of permanent Customs Union for Ireland inevitably follows from the professed desire for no border facilities. This is our government's policy, so why castigate Angela for it. We agreed it long ago.

    I think for your average two brain-celled Brexiteer it is much easier and more convenient to blame a foreigner, particularly if said foreigner is also German and female.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,757
    tpfkar said:

    That dry humour sounds like David Gauke to me.

    My favourite right of centre politician. Good guy, he really is.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492
    Foxy said:

    The logic of permanent Customs Union for Ireland inevitably follows from the professed desire for no border facilities. This is our government's policy, so why castigate Angela for it. We agreed it long ago.

    It's not just about a lack of border facilities. In article 49 of the Joint Report there's a commitment to support the all-island economy, and in article 48 a reference to North-South cooperation in economic and agricultural contexts.

    Even if the proposed magic technology did exist to do away with any need for customs inspections at or near the border, levying customs tariffs between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland would breach the commitment to support the all-island economy and North-South cooperation.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894
    Does anyone else find it remarkable that the opposition has maintained confidence in the Gov't through all of this ?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,048

    Is Parliament still being prorogued today? Do they have time to lay down a VoNC?
    A better question, do they have the guts to do so? (No, they don't)

    It wouldn't be so much guts required as stupidity. Not even Corbyn is dense enough to dance to Bozo's tune.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 953
    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    She's German. It doesn't have to make any actual sense, given that.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307
    Pulpstar said:

    Does anyone else find it remarkable that the opposition has maintained confidence in the Gov't through all of this ?

    It hasn’t.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 567

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    God give me the confidence of the death cultists.
    Honouring a majority vote is not a "death cult".

    The death cultists are those who would block and frustrate that vote at every turn. The polls point to the enduring damage this is now doing to trust in politicians and political institutions. THAT is a much bigger long term problem than Brexit.

  • PendduPenddu Posts: 260
    RWC Typhoon update.....

    Typhoon swinging a bit further northeast - earlier concerns about Ireland Samoa seem to be easing - but typhoon now appears to be crossing Yokohama at same time as England France game. Nil nil draw on the cards.....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    God give me the confidence of the death cultists.
    Honouring a majority vote is not a "death cult".

    The death cultists are those who would block and frustrate that vote at every turn. The polls point to the enduring damage this is now doing to trust in politicians and political institutions. THAT is a much bigger long term problem than Brexit.

    The Leave campaign explicitly and angrily disavowed the idea of a no deal Brexit. The chaos and disruption that would cause has no mandate.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 568

    Pulpstar said:

    Does anyone else find it remarkable that the opposition has maintained confidence in the Gov't through all of this ?

    It hasn’t.
    Well, Parliament doesn't have confidence in the Government. But they haven't formally said so. It's a bit like Schrodinger's cat.

    Parliament both DOES, and DOES NOT, have confidence in Her Majesty's Government.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,757
    Foxy said:

    The logic of permanent Customs Union for Ireland inevitably follows from the professed desire for no border facilities. This is our government's policy, so why castigate Angela for it. We agreed it long ago.

    No exit deal without the backstop.

    Once triggered, the backstop runs until alternative arrangements are agreed to replace it.

    Nothing has changed - except the rhetoric for domestic consumption.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307

    Pulpstar said:

    Does anyone else find it remarkable that the opposition has maintained confidence in the Gov't through all of this ?

    It hasn’t.
    Well, Parliament doesn't have confidence in the Government. But they haven't formally said so. It's a bit like Schrodinger's cat.

    Parliament both DOES, and DOES NOT, have confidence in Her Majesty's Government.
    It’s just a placeholder government.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 7,418

    FPT:

    This looks like the start of a pivot to a No Deal GE platform. If Farage does stand down, Boris will gobble up the BXP vote.

    He won't stand down, his ego won't allow him to. But Boris might still gobble up his vote sufficiently to win the GE.
    If Boris gets a majority, then he won't HAVE to No Deal Brexit and trash the country and his party.
    But on the other hand he'll have campaigned on a No Deal, so I suppose he will.
    'Sad' as someone might say.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 19,377

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    Vote Revoke and move on from Brexit!
    And people accuse Leavers of being deluded. Thete is no moving on from this if we Revoke.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,757
    On topic -

    I think GE before Brexit is a stone cold certainty. 74% is therefore great value.

    A Deal is out and both No Deal and Ref2/Remain need a GE mandate and thus a GE.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,048

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    God give me the confidence of the death cultists.
    Honouring a majority vote is not a "death cult".

    The death cultists are those who would block and frustrate that vote at every turn. The polls point to the enduring damage this is now doing to trust in politicians and political institutions. THAT is a much bigger long term problem than Brexit.

    No-deal Brexit is not "honouring" the referendum result, quite the reverse. To "honour" that somewhat dubious ballot, it might be sensible to go for a very soft Brexit, but definitely not an extremist no-deal Brexit that was not even discussed as a possible outcome during the campaign.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,501

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    Vote Revoke and move on from Brexit!
    Just ignore the referendum result.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,434
    edited October 8

    Is Parliament still being prorogued today? Do they have time to lay down a VoNC?
    A better question, do they have the guts to do so? (No, they don't)

    It wouldn't be so much guts required as stupidity. Not even Corbyn is dense enough to dance to Bozo's tune.
    Another Pachinko random scenario drop...

    Boris could resign, get HMQ to send for Corbyn, he accepts and becomes PM without need to priorly demonstrate confidence, sends letter, gets HMQ to deliver his QS and sets off to deliver his Brexit.

    Boris brings him down in his own time.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,048

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    Vote Revoke and move on from Brexit!
    And people accuse Leavers of being deluded. Thete is no moving on from this if we Revoke.
    Brexit will not cause us to move on from Brexit. Leave or remain, the politicians and snakeoil salesmen that sold this to the British electorate have condemned us to division and decline. There is no way to "move on" until all of us that remember this debacle are pushing up the daisies .
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,501
    "Number 10 source says party will fight election on no deal platform"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/08/dominic-cummings-memo-brexit-talks-election/
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307
    AndyJS said:

    "Number 10 source says party will fight election on no deal platform"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/08/dominic-cummings-memo-brexit-talks-election/

    Sooner or later, a Leaver politician is going to try to stop paying the political marauders Danegeld. But not for a good while, I think.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,048
    Pro_Rata said:

    Is Parliament still being prorogued today? Do they have time to lay down a VoNC?
    A better question, do they have the guts to do so? (No, they don't)

    It wouldn't be so much guts required as stupidity. Not even Corbyn is dense enough to dance to Bozo's tune.
    Another Pachinko random scenario drop...

    Boris could resign, get HMQ to send for Corbyn, he accepts and becomes PM without need to priorly demonstrate confidence, sends letter, gets HMQ to deliver his QS and sets off to deliver his Brexit.

    Boris brings him down in his own time.
    Well I had to look up what Pachinko is/was, but even then don't understand your point. Are you another deluded Bozo fanboy or are you being ironic?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 19,377

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    God give me the confidence of the death cultists.
    Honouring a majority vote is not a "death cult".

    The death cultists are those who would block and frustrate that vote at every turn. The polls point to the enduring damage this is now doing to trust in politicians and political institutions. THAT is a much bigger long term problem than Brexit.

    No-deal Brexit is not "honouring" the referendum result, quite the reverse. To "honour" that somewhat dubious ballot, it might be sensible to go for a very soft Brexit, but definitely not an extremist no-deal Brexit that was not even discussed as a possible outcome during the campaign.
    It was discussed extensively by Remain and there are plenty of interview clips of Cameron saying it wss posdible. Not that it is my preferred course but to claim it was not discussed is just wrong. .
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,048
    AndyJS said:

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    Vote Revoke and move on from Brexit!
    Just ignore the referendum result.
    As the government is by attempting to go for no-deal.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    God give me the confidence of the death cultists.
    Honouring a majority vote is not a "death cult".

    The death cultists are those who would block and frustrate that vote at every turn. The polls point to the enduring damage this is now doing to trust in politicians and political institutions. THAT is a much bigger long term problem than Brexit.

    No-deal Brexit is not "honouring" the referendum result, quite the reverse. To "honour" that somewhat dubious ballot, it might be sensible to go for a very soft Brexit, but definitely not an extremist no-deal Brexit that was not even discussed as a possible outcome during the campaign.
    Why would a soft Brexit honour that?

    The government said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market.
    The remain campaign said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market
    The leave campaigns said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market.
    The Labour Party, the SNP, the then PM, the current PM, the then Chancellor, the Leader of the Opposition all said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market.

    The only thing everyone in power agreed on was that leave meant leaving the Single Market. The idea of a soft Brexit only came about after the result came in.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,501
    "Half of people are now floating voters, creating an unprecedented level of political volatility ahead of a general election, a new study shows.

    A series of significant political shocks, including immigration, the financial crash and referendums on Scottish independence and Brexit have shattered longstanding party ties."

    (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-has-shattered-party-politics-in-britain-study-finds-nwtwd3b2h
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 4,499

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    God give me the confidence of the death cultists.
    Honouring a majority vote is not a "death cult".

    The death cultists are those who would block and frustrate that vote at every turn. The polls point to the enduring damage this is now doing to trust in politicians and political institutions. THAT is a much bigger long term problem than Brexit.

    No-deal Brexit is not "honouring" the referendum result, quite the reverse. To "honour" that somewhat dubious ballot, it might be sensible to go for a very soft Brexit, but definitely not an extremist no-deal Brexit that was not even discussed as a possible outcome during the campaign.
    Why would a soft Brexit honour that?

    The government said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market.
    The remain campaign said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market
    The leave campaigns said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market.
    The Labour Party, the SNP, the then PM, the current PM, the then Chancellor, the Leader of the Opposition all said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market.

    The only thing everyone in power agreed on was that leave meant leaving the Single Market. The idea of a soft Brexit only came about after the result came in.
    Let me get this right. If A, B, C and D etc said that result X would be a disaster, that is your justification for going for result X, that it was 'discussed'?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,048

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    God give me the confidence of the death cultists.
    Honouring a majority vote is not a "death cult".

    The death cultists are those who would block and frustrate that vote at every turn. The polls point to the enduring damage this is now doing to trust in politicians and political institutions. THAT is a much bigger long term problem than Brexit.

    No-deal Brexit is not "honouring" the referendum result, quite the reverse. To "honour" that somewhat dubious ballot, it might be sensible to go for a very soft Brexit, but definitely not an extremist no-deal Brexit that was not even discussed as a possible outcome during the campaign.
    It was discussed extensively by Remain and there are plenty of interview clips of Cameron saying it wss posdible. Not that it is my preferred course but to claim it was not discussed is just wrong. .
    An interesting question for some pollster perhaps. How many people thought there was any possibility of the EU not giving us a deal? Slight problem of false recall by about 30% of the population though I suppose.

    I can honestly say though, that even as a political nerd who followed the referendum closely, I never recall it being put forward as a possibility by Leave advocates. Anyone that can provide evidence of widespread discussion is welcome to disabuse me.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,324

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    Vote Revoke and move on from Brexit!
    We'll never move on from Brexit while Boris Johnson is in plain sight.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,048

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    God give me the confidence of the death cultists.
    Honouring a majority vote is not a "death cult".

    The death cultists are those who would block and frustrate that vote at every turn. The polls point to the enduring damage this is now doing to trust in politicians and political institutions. THAT is a much bigger long term problem than Brexit.

    No-deal Brexit is not "honouring" the referendum result, quite the reverse. To "honour" that somewhat dubious ballot, it might be sensible to go for a very soft Brexit, but definitely not an extremist no-deal Brexit that was not even discussed as a possible outcome during the campaign.
    Why would a soft Brexit honour that?

    The government said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market.
    The remain campaign said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market
    The leave campaigns said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market.
    The Labour Party, the SNP, the then PM, the current PM, the then Chancellor, the Leader of the Opposition all said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market.

    The only thing everyone in power agreed on was that leave meant leaving the Single Market. The idea of a soft Brexit only came about after the result came in.
    Your whole post is nonsense. Norway was often postulated as the model when Leave thought it was losing the argument.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894

    AndyJS said:

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    Vote Revoke and move on from Brexit!
    Just ignore the referendum result.
    As the government is by attempting to go for no-deal.
    The forthcoming General Election creates a new mandate, whether that's to revoke, fence sit, go for independence or apparently go for "No Deal" is up to the parties themselves.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    Vote Revoke and move on from Brexit!
    And people accuse Leavers of being deluded. Thete is no moving on from this if we Revoke.
    I wasn't being serious. There is no escape from Brexit. However, it's probably the least worst option (in the absence of a genuine national compromise). Consider the alternatives.

    REVOKE - Leavers accuse Remainers of treachery, betrayal and cancelling democracy.

    REFERENDUM - Leavers accuse Remainers of treachery, betrayal and cancelling democracy. And we have a bitter referendum campaign. And if Leave (in whatever way is on the ballot paper) wins we still have to negotiate the future trade agreement.

    DEAL - Leavers accuse Remainers of treachery, betrayal and cancelling democracy. We still have to negotiate the future trade agreement.

    NO DEAL - Leavers accuse the EU of treachery, betrayal and attempting to subvert British democracy. Remainers accuse Leavers of something horrid. We suffer economic damage. We still have to agree a preliminary deal with the EU to cover reciprocal citizen's rights, financial obligations and the Irish border before we can even start to negotiate the future trade agreement.

    Revoke looks like the least hassle.
  • mr-claypolemr-claypole Posts: 131
    It only Brexit happens/Jeremy happens everything will be great again and we will finally be living in a capitalist/socialist paradise. Anyone who says otherwise is a traitor/Blairite. Only my version of democracy is legitimate so do not accrue any value to the votes of that lot over there.Four legs good two legs bad etc. What ungrateful Ireland has some history? What happened over there then?

    Trying to sum up the post 2016 national discussion.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    God give me the confidence of the death cultists.
    Honouring a majority vote is not a "death cult".

    The death cultists are those who would block and frustrate that vote at every turn. The polls point to the enduring damage this is now doing to trust in politicians and political institutions. THAT is a much bigger long term problem than Brexit.

    No-deal Brexit is not "honouring" the referendum result, quite the reverse. To "honour" that somewhat dubious ballot, it might be sensible to go for a very soft Brexit, but definitely not an extremist no-deal Brexit that was not even discussed as a possible outcome during the campaign.
    Why would a soft Brexit honour that?

    The government said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market.
    The remain campaign said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market
    The leave campaigns said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market.
    The Labour Party, the SNP, the then PM, the current PM, the then Chancellor, the Leader of the Opposition all said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market.

    The only thing everyone in power agreed on was that leave meant leaving the Single Market. The idea of a soft Brexit only came about after the result came in.
    Your whole post is nonsense. Norway was often postulated as the model when Leave thought it was losing the argument.
    Norway can't get through the Irish red lines though.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    Still kicking our heels for another week or so - the opposition won’t bring down the government- even though they can.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 20,384

    AndyJS said:

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    Vote Revoke and move on from Brexit!
    Just ignore the referendum result.
    As the government is by attempting to go for no-deal.
    No deal is not ignoring the referendum result. It is in accordance with the instructions of the voters who asked that the UK leave the EU. Nor more nor less. Now, the morons who voted for such an outcome and the morons who tried to implement such an outcome are a separate issue but, sadly, especially for those who can least afford it and likely most want it (along with the JRM elite), leaving with no deal would be a perfectly legitimate mode of leaving the EU and it would indeed "honour" the referendum result.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307
    The problem is that Brexit was sold on a false prospectus. You can’t make a false prospectus true.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534
    Carnyx said:

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    God give me the confidence of the death cultists.
    Honouring a majority vote is not a "death cult".

    The death cultists are those who would block and frustrate that vote at every turn. The polls point to the enduring damage this is now doing to trust in politicians and political institutions. THAT is a much bigger long term problem than Brexit.

    No-deal Brexit is not "honouring" the referendum result, quite the reverse. To "honour" that somewhat dubious ballot, it might be sensible to go for a very soft Brexit, but definitely not an extremist no-deal Brexit that was not even discussed as a possible outcome during the campaign.
    Why would a soft Brexit honour that?

    The government said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market.
    The remain campaign said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market
    The leave campaigns said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market.
    The Labour Party, the SNP, the then PM, the current PM, the then Chancellor, the Leader of the Opposition all said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market.

    The only thing everyone in power agreed on was that leave meant leaving the Single Market. The idea of a soft Brexit only came about after the result came in.
    Let me get this right. If A, B, C and D etc said that result X would be a disaster, that is your justification for going for result X, that it was 'discussed'?
    Well yes.

    If A, B, C and D say "vote for option 2 and you get X and it will be a disaster" and the voters think "I want X" and vote for option 2 then absolutely A, B, C and D can't say afterwards that X wasn't discussed and has no mandate. Everyone agreed leaving the EU meant leaving the Single Market as much as idiots still share that stupid discredited video.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    God give me the confidence of the death cultists.
    Honouring a majority vote is not a "death cult".

    The death cultists are those who would block and frustrate that vote at every turn. The polls point to the enduring damage this is now doing to trust in politicians and political institutions. THAT is a much bigger long term problem than Brexit.

    No-deal Brexit is not "honouring" the referendum result, quite the reverse. To "honour" that somewhat dubious ballot, it might be sensible to go for a very soft Brexit, but definitely not an extremist no-deal Brexit that was not even discussed as a possible outcome during the campaign.
    Why would a soft Brexit honour that?

    The government said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market.
    The remain campaign said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market
    The leave campaigns said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market.
    The Labour Party, the SNP, the then PM, the current PM, the then Chancellor, the Leader of the Opposition all said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market.

    The only thing everyone in power agreed on was that leave meant leaving the Single Market. The idea of a soft Brexit only came about after the result came in.
    Your whole post is nonsense. Norway was often postulated as the model when Leave thought it was losing the argument.
    During the referendum all parties I named confirmed that we would leave the Single Market. It was explicitly said by them all.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 953

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    God give me the confidence of the death cultists.
    Honouring a majority vote is not a "death cult".

    The death cultists are those who would block and frustrate that vote at every turn. The polls point to the enduring damage this is now doing to trust in politicians and political institutions. THAT is a much bigger long term problem than Brexit.

    No-deal Brexit is not "honouring" the referendum result, quite the reverse. To "honour" that somewhat dubious ballot, it might be sensible to go for a very soft Brexit, but definitely not an extremist no-deal Brexit that was not even discussed as a possible outcome during the campaign.
    Why would a soft Brexit honour that?

    The government said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market.
    The remain campaign said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market
    The leave campaigns said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market.
    The Labour Party, the SNP, the then PM, the current PM, the then Chancellor, the Leader of the Opposition all said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market.

    The only thing everyone in power agreed on was that leave meant leaving the Single Market. The idea of a soft Brexit only came about after the result came in.
    Nobody mentioned the Customs Union.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492
    AndyJS said:

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    Vote Revoke and move on from Brexit!
    Just ignore the referendum result.
    Override the referendum result with a glorious majority Liberal Democrat government.
  • eekeek Posts: 5,791

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    God give me the confidence of the death cultists.
    Honouring a majority vote is not a "death cult".

    The death cultists are those who would block and frustrate that vote at every turn. The polls point to the enduring damage this is now doing to trust in politicians and political institutions. THAT is a much bigger long term problem than Brexit.

    No-deal Brexit is not "honouring" the referendum result, quite the reverse. To "honour" that somewhat dubious ballot, it might be sensible to go for a very soft Brexit, but definitely not an extremist no-deal Brexit that was not even discussed as a possible outcome during the campaign.
    It was discussed extensively by Remain and there are plenty of interview clips of Cameron saying it wss posdible. Not that it is my preferred course but to claim it was not discussed is just wrong. .
    An interesting question for some pollster perhaps. How many people thought there was any possibility of the EU not giving us a deal? Slight problem of false recall by about 30% of the population though I suppose.

    I can honestly say though, that even as a political nerd who followed the referendum closely, I never recall it being put forward as a possibility by Leave advocates. Anyone that can provide evidence of widespread discussion is welcome to disabuse me.
    +1 - I remember Leave shutting down the possibility as "Project Fear" any time it was mentioned.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 20,384

    The problem is that Brexit was sold on a false prospectus. You can’t make a false prospectus true.

    Maybe but the famous "ballot paper question" made no mention of any prospectus. It just said stay or go.

    If people voted go on this basis then they were either informed and understood that no deal was a real possibility and believed that that was better than staying in; or they were thick as pigshit and are genuinely surprised and distressed that we are very likely about to leave with no deal; or they paid insufficient attention to the possibility that we could leave with no deal and don't care one way or another.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,324
    edited October 8
    I've just seen the poster of Angela.There are 3,000,000 UK citizens in EU countries at the moment and I am one of them.There is a really unpleasant underbelly to many of the Brexiteers which not enough people even on here seem prepared to acknowledge.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 953
    TOPPING said:

    The problem is that Brexit was sold on a false prospectus. You can’t make a false prospectus true.

    Maybe but the famous "ballot paper question" made no mention of any prospectus. It just said stay or go.

    If people voted go on this basis then they were either informed and understood that no deal was a real possibility and believed that that was better than staying in; or they were thick as pigshit and are genuinely surprised and distressed that we are very likely about to leave with no deal; or they paid insufficient attention to the possibility that we could leave with no deal and don't care one way or another.
    Which do you reckon is the largest constituency of those three?


  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,231
    Roger said:

    I've just seen the poster of Angela.There are 3,000,000 UK citizens in EU countries at the moment and I am one of them.There is a really unpleasant underbelly to many of the Brexiteers which not enough people even on on here are prepared to acknowledge.

    They are racists. ALL of them.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 20,384

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    God give me the confidence of the death cultists.
    Honouring a majority vote is not a "death cult".

    The death cultists are those who would block and frustrate that vote at every turn. The polls point to the enduring damage this is now doing to trust in politicians and political institutions. THAT is a much bigger long term problem than Brexit.

    No-deal Brexit is not "honouring" the referendum result, quite the reverse. To "honour" that somewhat dubious ballot, it might be sensible to go for a very soft Brexit, but definitely not an extremist no-deal Brexit that was not even discussed as a possible outcome during the campaign.
    Why would a soft Brexit honour that?

    The government said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market.
    The remain campaign said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market
    The leave campaigns said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market.
    The Labour Party, the SNP, the then PM, the current PM, the then Chancellor, the Leader of the Opposition all said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market.

    The only thing everyone in power agreed on was that leave meant leaving the Single Market. The idea of a soft Brexit only came about after the result came in.
    Nah. Back to that ballot paper. Leaving the EU (formally, legally) while retaining Single Market and Customs Union membership, making it compulsory to speak French in public and giving EU immigrants a £100,000 arrival bonus would have been honouring the referendum result.

    Problem is, May failed to understand the difference between a general election win and a referendum win, and so omitted to embrace consensus, and so the loons took charge.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 20,384
    Tabman said:

    TOPPING said:

    The problem is that Brexit was sold on a false prospectus. You can’t make a false prospectus true.

    Maybe but the famous "ballot paper question" made no mention of any prospectus. It just said stay or go.

    If people voted go on this basis then they were either informed and understood that no deal was a real possibility and believed that that was better than staying in; or they were thick as pigshit and are genuinely surprised and distressed that we are very likely about to leave with no deal; or they paid insufficient attention to the possibility that we could leave with no deal and don't care one way or another.
    Which do you reckon is the largest constituency of those three?


    The first is the minority. Then probably comes the third and then the second. The second of course includes some notable PB Brexiters and of course in that context "thick as pigshit" should be seen as a rhetorical flourish.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 1,955
    Canadian election:

    Interesting to note that the projected number of Liberal seats has dropped by about 10 despite their share remaining the same as a couple of days ago. Maybe the model has been updated since then.

    https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 567

    The problem is that Brexit was sold on a false prospectus. You can’t make a false prospectus true. </blockquo

    This is just arrant nonsense. No government since the war has had a mandate on that basis.

  • eekeek Posts: 5,791
    TOPPING said:

    The problem is that Brexit was sold on a false prospectus. You can’t make a false prospectus true.

    Maybe but the famous "ballot paper question" made no mention of any prospectus. It just said stay or go.

    If people voted go on this basis then they were either informed and understood that no deal was a real possibility and believed that that was better than staying in; or they were thick as pigshit and are genuinely surprised and distressed that we are very likely about to leave with no deal; or they paid insufficient attention to the possibility that we could leave with no deal and don't care one way or another.
    Sorry but any mention of No Deal was called Project Fear and remember Boris and Gove told us it would be the easiest deal in history.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,607
    Roger said:

    I've just seen the poster of Angela.There are 3,000,000 UK citizens in EU countries at the moment and I am one of them.There is a really unpleasant underbelly to many of the Brexiteers which not enough people even on here seem prepared to acknowledge.

    +1. It is disgusting the way some Brexiteers behave.
  • NorthstarNorthstar Posts: 25
    edited October 8
    Roger said:

    I've just seen the poster of Angela.There are 3,000,000 UK citizens in EU countries at the moment and I am one of them.There is a really unpleasant underbelly to many of the Brexiteers which not enough people even on on here are prepared to acknowledge.

    As someone who voted Remain but now backs Leave, I would definitely acknowledge the above. There’s a streak of xenophobia, an underbelly as you say, that I find repugnant especially as someone who is mixed race.

    Whatever happens, I think the reintroduction if these kind of tropes to mainstream political discussion after years of them being kept to the fringes is something we’re all going to regret.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 567

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    God give me the confidence of the death cultists.
    Honouring a majority vote is not a "death cult".

    The death cultists are those who would block and frustrate that vote at every turn. The polls point to the enduring damage this is now doing to trust in politicians and political institutions. THAT is a much bigger long term problem than Brexit.

    The Leave campaign explicitly and angrily disavowed the idea of a no deal Brexit. The chaos and disruption that would cause has no mandate.

    What was on the ballot paper?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307
    TOPPING said:

    The problem is that Brexit was sold on a false prospectus. You can’t make a false prospectus true.

    Maybe but the famous "ballot paper question" made no mention of any prospectus. It just said stay or go.

    If people voted go on this basis then they were either informed and understood that no deal was a real possibility and believed that that was better than staying in; or they were thick as pigshit and are genuinely surprised and distressed that we are very likely about to leave with no deal; or they paid insufficient attention to the possibility that we could leave with no deal and don't care one way or another.
    The ballot paper has to be understood in the context of the way it was argued for. To say otherwise is as literalistic as to say that the referendum was an advisory vote.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,330
    edited October 8
    Just thought the current session of Parliament is currently the longest ever and ends tonight.

    The new session starts next week but could be over within a few days for a general election... So we get the longest ever session of Parliament followed by the shortest.

    UK politics totally crazy since 2014! :D
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307
    edited October 8

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    God give me the confidence of the death cultists.
    Honouring a majority vote is not a "death cult".

    The death cultists are those who would block and frustrate that vote at every turn. The polls point to the enduring damage this is now doing to trust in politicians and political institutions. THAT is a much bigger long term problem than Brexit.

    The Leave campaign explicitly and angrily disavowed the idea of a no deal Brexit. The chaos and disruption that would cause has no mandate.

    What was on the ballot paper?
    Then you must accept that the referendum was an advisory vote.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 19,377

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    God give me the confidence of the death cultists.
    Honouring a majority vote is not a "death cult".

    The death cultists are those who would block and frustrate that vote at every turn. The polls point to the enduring damage this is now doing to trust in politicians and political institutions. THAT is a much bigger long term problem than Brexit.

    No-deal Brexit is not "honouring" the referendum result, quite the reverse. To "honour" that somewhat dubious ballot, it might be sensible to go for a very soft Brexit, but definitely not an extremist no-deal Brexit that was not even discussed as a possible outcome during the campaign.
    It was discussed extensively by Remain and there are plenty of interview clips of Cameron saying it wss posdible. Not that it is my preferred course but to claim it was not discussed is just wrong. .
    An interesting question for some pollster perhaps. How many people thought there was any possibility of the EU not giving us a deal? Slight problem of false recall by about 30% of the population though I suppose.

    I can honestly say though, that even as a political nerd who followed the referendum closely, I never recall it being put forward as a possibility by Leave advocates. Anyone that can provide evidence of widespread discussion is welcome to disabuse me.
    Nigel Farage

    3rd June 2016: “Even if our friends in France and Italy decide to cut off their noses to spite their faces…it will better than the rotten deal we have now.”

    8th June 2016 : “no deal is better than the rotten deal that we’ve got at the moment.”

  • RobDRobD Posts: 39,126
    GIN1138 said:

    Just thought the current session of Parliament is currently the longest ever and ends tonight.

    The new session starts next week but could be over within a few days for a general election... So we get the logest ever sessopm of Parliament followed by the shortest.

    UK politics totally crazy since 2014! :D

    Three prorogations in three months? Black Rod certainly has stamina.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,434

    Pro_Rata said:

    Is Parliament still being prorogued today? Do they have time to lay down a VoNC?
    A better question, do they have the guts to do so? (No, they don't)

    It wouldn't be so much guts required as stupidity. Not even Corbyn is dense enough to dance to Bozo's tune.
    Another Pachinko random scenario drop...

    Boris could resign, get HMQ to send for Corbyn, he accepts and becomes PM without need to priorly demonstrate confidence, sends letter, gets HMQ to deliver his QS and sets off to deliver his Brexit.

    Boris brings him down in his own time.
    Well I had to look up what Pachinko is/was, but even then don't understand your point. Are you another deluded Bozo fanboy or are you being ironic?

    Pro_Rata said:

    Is Parliament still being prorogued today? Do they have time to lay down a VoNC?
    A better question, do they have the guts to do so? (No, they don't)

    It wouldn't be so much guts required as stupidity. Not even Corbyn is dense enough to dance to Bozo's tune.
    Another Pachinko random scenario drop...

    Boris could resign, get HMQ to send for Corbyn, he accepts and becomes PM without need to priorly demonstrate confidence, sends letter, gets HMQ to deliver his QS and sets off to deliver his Brexit.

    Boris brings him down in his own time.
    Well I had to look up what Pachinko is/was, but even then don't understand your point. Are you another deluded Bozo fanboy or are you being ironic?
    Nah, just still trying to work out Boris's various get outs from sending the letter, even if not getting out of sending the letter now seems odds on. The resign option requires him to no longer be PM, so he would need to name a successor whom at very least he would not challenge on confidence immediately, and I guess he would prefer not to blow up the Queen's Speech or subsequent debate, which overlaps the EU summit.

    So, I make today his last reasonable day for resign rather than send. Assuming reasonable at least has bearing on him when it suits.
  • isamisam Posts: 28,277
    Northstar said:

    Roger said:

    I've just seen the poster of Angela.There are 3,000,000 UK citizens in EU countries at the moment and I am one of them.There is a really unpleasant underbelly to many of the Brexiteers which not enough people even on on here are prepared to acknowledge.

    As someone who voted Remain but now backs Leave, I would definitely acknowledge the above. There’s a streak of xenophobia, an underbelly as you say, that I find repugnant especially as someone who is mixed race.

    Whatever happens, I think the reintroduction if these kind of tropes to mainstream political discussion after years of them being kept to the fringes is something we’re all going to regret.
    We are seeing what happens when the establishment won’t implement the result of a democratic vote.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,253
    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Just thought the current session of Parliament is currently the longest ever and ends tonight.

    The new session starts next week but could be over within a few days for a general election... So we get the logest ever sessopm of Parliament followed by the shortest.

    UK politics totally crazy since 2014! :D

    Three prorogations in three months? Black Rod certainly has stamina.
    The third will be a dissolution, not a prorogation ;)
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 3,702
    Roger said:

    I've just seen the poster of Angela.There are 3,000,000 UK citizens in EU countries at the moment and I am one of them.There is a really unpleasant underbelly to many of the Brexiteers which not enough people even on on here are prepared to acknowledge.

    The unpleasant underbelly (which is blind to Left, Right, Stay, Leave) is a result of unfettered access to the anonymity of the internet, brave unrestrained keyboard warriors and social media. Those are the things that have brought the unpleasantness to heightened levels.

    We see it here with once reasonable people posting such trash comments as ….. ………………. Insert your own example, as I don't want to honour any of them by repeating the detritus they post from the seclusion of their computer / phone in an effort to offend and seek attention for 5 milliseconds.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 39,126

    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Just thought the current session of Parliament is currently the longest ever and ends tonight.

    The new session starts next week but could be over within a few days for a general election... So we get the logest ever sessopm of Parliament followed by the shortest.

    UK politics totally crazy since 2014! :D

    Three prorogations in three months? Black Rod certainly has stamina.
    The third will be a dissolution, not a prorogation ;)
    Still lots of banging. ;)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 12,207

    AndyJS said:

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    Vote Revoke and move on from Brexit!
    Just ignore the referendum result.
    Override the referendum result with a glorious majority Liberal Democrat government.
    Pretty impressive posting whilst in the middle of a wet dream.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,701
    TOPPING said:

    AndyJS said:

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    Vote Revoke and move on from Brexit!
    Just ignore the referendum result.
    As the government is by attempting to go for no-deal.
    No deal is not ignoring the referendum result. It is in accordance with the instructions of the voters who asked that the UK leave the EU. Nor more nor less. Now, the morons who voted for such an outcome and the morons who tried to implement such an outcome are a separate issue but, sadly, especially for those who can least afford it and likely most want it (along with the JRM elite), leaving with no deal would be a perfectly legitimate mode of leaving the EU and it would indeed "honour" the referendum result.

    It's impossible to argue with that. Making ourselves poorer, less free, less secure and more dependent on others is undoubtedly a way to leave the EU. That we were told this would not happen by those about to inflict it on us is neither here nor there. What does matter, though, is how the government intends to respond to this new reality. I see no signs that it has even the remotest idea.

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,253
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Just thought the current session of Parliament is currently the longest ever and ends tonight.

    The new session starts next week but could be over within a few days for a general election... So we get the logest ever sessopm of Parliament followed by the shortest.

    UK politics totally crazy since 2014! :D

    Three prorogations in three months? Black Rod certainly has stamina.
    The third will be a dissolution, not a prorogation ;)
    Still lots of banging. ;)
    And 'hilarious' input from Dennis Skinner
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,330
    edited October 8
    AndyJS said:

    "Number 10 source says party will fight election on no deal platform"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/08/dominic-cummings-memo-brexit-talks-election/

    So Farage will stand down, endorse Boris and if we assume at least half of the 13% for BPX goes to Con that will add another 6% on to Con's vote share and get them very close to 40% and a landslide (unless Jezza does something remarkable like in 2017)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 20,384

    TOPPING said:

    The problem is that Brexit was sold on a false prospectus. You can’t make a false prospectus true.

    Maybe but the famous "ballot paper question" made no mention of any prospectus. It just said stay or go.

    If people voted go on this basis then they were either informed and understood that no deal was a real possibility and believed that that was better than staying in; or they were thick as pigshit and are genuinely surprised and distressed that we are very likely about to leave with no deal; or they paid insufficient attention to the possibility that we could leave with no deal and don't care one way or another.
    The ballot paper has to be understood in the context of the way it was argued for. To say otherwise is as literalistic as to say that the referendum was an advisory vote.
    Yes that is a good point. There was a vote leave manifesto which was quickly forgotten. It became a case of "it's up to the government". And we know what happened then.
  • NorthstarNorthstar Posts: 25
    isam said:

    Northstar said:

    Roger said:

    I've just seen the poster of Angela.There are 3,000,000 UK citizens in EU countries at the moment and I am one of them.There is a really unpleasant underbelly to many of the Brexiteers which not enough people even on on here are prepared to acknowledge.

    As someone who voted Remain but now backs Leave, I would definitely acknowledge the above. There’s a streak of xenophobia, an underbelly as you say, that I find repugnant especially as someone who is mixed race.

    Whatever happens, I think the reintroduction if these kind of tropes to mainstream political discussion after years of them being kept to the fringes is something we’re all going to regret.
    We are seeing what happens when the establishment won’t implement the result of a democratic vote.
    Agreed!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,330
    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Just thought the current session of Parliament is currently the longest ever and ends tonight.

    The new session starts next week but could be over within a few days for a general election... So we get the logest ever sessopm of Parliament followed by the shortest.

    UK politics totally crazy since 2014! :D

    Three prorogations in three months? Black Rod certainly has stamina.
    Yeah but the first one never actually happened because Tony Blairs Supreme Court said so. :D
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 20,384
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    The problem is that Brexit was sold on a false prospectus. You can’t make a false prospectus true.

    Maybe but the famous "ballot paper question" made no mention of any prospectus. It just said stay or go.

    If people voted go on this basis then they were either informed and understood that no deal was a real possibility and believed that that was better than staying in; or they were thick as pigshit and are genuinely surprised and distressed that we are very likely about to leave with no deal; or they paid insufficient attention to the possibility that we could leave with no deal and don't care one way or another.
    Sorry but any mention of No Deal was called Project Fear and remember Boris and Gove told us it would be the easiest deal in history.
    I remember all that but none of it was enshrined in statute.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,701
    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Number 10 source says party will fight election on no deal platform"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/08/dominic-cummings-memo-brexit-talks-election/

    So Farage will stand down, endorse Boris and if we assume at least half of the 13 for BPX goes to Con that will add another 6% on to Con's vote share and get them very close to 40% and a landslide (unless Jezza does something remarkable like in 2017)

    And so will begin the country's last ever Tory government!

  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 818

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    God give me the confidence of the death cultists.
    Honouring a majority vote is not a "death cult".

    The death cultists are those who would block and frustrate that vote at every turn. The polls point to the enduring damage this is now doing to trust in politicians and political institutions. THAT is a much bigger long term problem than Brexit.

    No-deal Brexit is not "honouring" the referendum result, quite the reverse. To "honour" that somewhat dubious ballot, it might be sensible to go for a very soft Brexit, but definitely not an extremist no-deal Brexit that was not even discussed as a possible outcome during the campaign.
    It was discussed extensively by Remain and there are plenty of interview clips of Cameron saying it wss posdible. Not that it is my preferred course but to claim it was not discussed is just wrong. .
    An interesting question for some pollster perhaps. How many people thought there was any possibility of the EU not giving us a deal?
    Talk me through that one again?

    The EU are way more unreasonable and intransigent than Leave voters imagined, so the obvious conclusion is we should Remain after all?

    "I went to my boss and said that i wasn't happy in my job and was thinking of leaving the company. He did nothing, so i said i was definitely leaving. Then he increased my hours and cut my pay and said no way was i leaving...so obviously i'm staying after all"

    WTF are you on about?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 20,384

    TOPPING said:

    AndyJS said:

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    Vote Revoke and move on from Brexit!
    Just ignore the referendum result.
    As the government is by attempting to go for no-deal.
    No deal is not ignoring the referendum result. It is in accordance with the instructions of the voters who asked that the UK leave the EU. Nor more nor less. Now, the morons who voted for such an outcome and the morons who tried to implement such an outcome are a separate issue but, sadly, especially for those who can least afford it and likely most want it (along with the JRM elite), leaving with no deal would be a perfectly legitimate mode of leaving the EU and it would indeed "honour" the referendum result.

    It's impossible to argue with that. Making ourselves poorer, less free, less secure and more dependent on others is undoubtedly a way to leave the EU. That we were told this would not happen by those about to inflict it on us is neither here nor there. What does matter, though, is how the government intends to respond to this new reality. I see no signs that it has even the remotest idea.

    I think it is worse than that. Johnson seems as though he is needlessly going to inflict serious harm on the country.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,048

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    God give me the confidence of the death cultists.
    Honouring a majority vote is not a "death cult".

    The death cultists are those who would block and frustrate that vote at every turn. The polls point to the enduring damage this is now doing to trust in politicians and political institutions. THAT is a much bigger long term problem than Brexit.

    No-deal Brexit is not "honouring" the referendum result, quite the reverse. To "honour" that somewhat dubious ballot, it might be sensible to go for a very soft Brexit, but definitely not an extremist no-deal Brexit that was not even discussed as a possible outcome during the campaign.
    It was discussed extensively by Remain and there are plenty of interview clips of Cameron saying it wss posdible. Not that it is my preferred course but to claim it was not discussed is just wrong. .
    An interesting question for some pollster perhaps. How many people thought there was any possibility of the EU not giving us a deal? Slight problem of false recall by about 30% of the population though I suppose.

    I can honestly say though, that even as a political nerd who followed the referendum closely, I never recall it being put forward as a possibility by Leave advocates. Anyone that can provide evidence of widespread discussion is welcome to disabuse me.
    Nigel Farage

    3rd June 2016: “Even if our friends in France and Italy decide to cut off their noses to spite their faces…it will better than the rotten deal we have now.”

    8th June 2016 : “no deal is better than the rotten deal that we’ve got at the moment.”

    Thanks Richard. Two quotes though, I think you will agree, is hardly a deluge of material, and even then this is pretty ambiguous stuff. No one fought for Leave with an unambiguous message that we might, or even should, leave without a deal. "Norway" as a model was often discussed.
  • isamisam Posts: 28,277
    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Number 10 source says party will fight election on no deal platform"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/08/dominic-cummings-memo-brexit-talks-election/

    So Farage will stand down, endorse Boris and if we assume at least half of the 13% for BPX goes to Con that will add another 6% on to Con's vote share and get them very close to 40% and a landslide (unless Jezza does something remarkable like in 2017)
    I would assume a majority of the other 7% wouldn’t vote at all. They won’t vote Lab, Green or anyway
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307

    Chris said:



    So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?

    Any attempt to portray Merkel as the villain of the piece is going to lean very heavily on total ignorance of what's gone before.

    That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
    Brexiteers and get it done remain preferrers, get them on board and you have a thumping majority at any election
    God give me the confidence of the death cultists.
    Honouring a majority vote is not a "death cult".

    The death cultists are those who would block and frustrate that vote at every turn. The polls point to the enduring damage this is now doing to trust in politicians and political institutions. THAT is a much bigger long term problem than Brexit.

    No-deal Brexit is not "honouring" the referendum result, quite the reverse. To "honour" that somewhat dubious ballot, it might be sensible to go for a very soft Brexit, but definitely not an extremist no-deal Brexit that was not even discussed as a possible outcome during the campaign.
    It was discussed extensively by Remain and there are plenty of interview clips of Cameron saying it wss posdible. Not that it is my preferred course but to claim it was not discussed is just wrong. .
    An interesting question for some pollster perhaps. How many people thought there was any possibility of the EU not giving us a deal?
    Talk me through that one again?

    The EU are way more unreasonable and intransigent than Leave voters imagined, so the obvious conclusion is we should Remain after all?

    "I went to my boss and said that i wasn't happy in my job and was thinking of leaving the company. He did nothing, so i said i was definitely leaving. Then he increased my hours and cut my pay and said no way was i leaving...so obviously i'm staying after all"

    WTF are you on about?
    More to the point, the EU did reach a deal. But the death cult Leavers didn’t want it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,330

    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Number 10 source says party will fight election on no deal platform"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/08/dominic-cummings-memo-brexit-talks-election/

    So Farage will stand down, endorse Boris and if we assume at least half of the 13 for BPX goes to Con that will add another 6% on to Con's vote share and get them very close to 40% and a landslide (unless Jezza does something remarkable like in 2017)

    And so will begin the country's last ever Tory government!

    The Tories always survive. Like cockroaches they would survive an apocolypse... ;)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,324
    rpjs said:

    Roger said:

    I've just seen the poster of Angela.There are 3,000,000 UK citizens in EU countries at the moment and I am one of them.There is a really unpleasant underbelly to many of the Brexiteers which not enough people even on on here are prepared to acknowledge.

    They are racists. ALL of them.
    Everyone who wrote approvingly of the Merkel poster certainly are. But some who just lined up behind Farage and his racist posters are just thick as planks
Sign In or Register to comment.