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  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Gabs2 said:

    Byronic said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most likely if the EU does not agree a new Deal by October 19th at the EU council Boris loses a VONC the subsequent week, then either MPs approve a new PM within 14 days, probably Bercow, to extend, then vote for an election or no new PM is agreed and there is a general election anyway

    I wonder if, in their desperation, MPs might vote for a new referendum, during that short interregnum.

    And, heck, they might be right. Perhaps a 2nd vote is the only way out, unhappy as that would be.
    What would it achieve? The Tories would immediately stand on a manifesto of Leave, for the next and all future elections. And Remainers can't complain because the Lib Dems have legitimized it.
    My preference is for Leave with a deal (as I said below). But that is looking increasingly impossible.

    No Deal is explosively dangerous to our economy, Revoke is horribly dangerous for our democracy.

    That leaves a new vote. It's far from ideal, in fact it is grim, for all the reasons you say, but there are no good or decent choices left.

    And it is at least democratic, albeit deeply flawed. If you know a better option, now's the time to speak up!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited October 2019

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Possible outcomes:

    Revoke: democratically disastrous
    Rereferend: highly divisive and a recognition of failure by the political class
    Leave with a deal: discredited
    Leave without a deal: highly disruptive, chaotic and highly divisive.

    Pick your preferred disaster.

    Which would you pick?
    Rereferend, I think. That, or leave with a deal. But the latter, I think, is now politically impossible.
    Thanks.

    I would put leave with a deal first then another referendum but very 50/50 for me.

    Either would do.

    But what a mess.
    Revoke then start the process for EEA and tell electorate that a planned, managed a d non damaging Brexit is being organised.

    The Loons will howl, a lot of Remainers will probably accept it and the bulk of the population will just get on with their lives
    Yes, Revoke and Rethink.
    Revoke is an end state, as it is being sold to us as being to put a stop to all this. That's fine, but lets not pretend the revoking crowd want a rethink and reconsideration of leave afterwards.

    Revoking is the action taken after a rethink not before. If remaining is best now, as I believe, making pretend noises on leave is just insulting.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Hang on, I thought the EU agreed to work to find a sensible permanent solution to the challenge of the customs border in NI back in March, and the backstop was just a backstop.

    Turns out it was just the answer, fullstop, all along?

    In which case: bad faith.

    It's only bad faith on the UK's part if it doesn't accept that the permanent solution has to meet the same tests as the insurance policy and can't involve backsliding on the all-island economy, North-South cooperation, or the border.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Royale, I always thought that signing up temporarily for something you wouldn't accept permanently is daft.

    And the line taken was particularly unpersuasive.
    "We don't want this to be permanent. We just want it to be something you can't leave without our permission."
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    edited October 2019
    eek said:

    Byronic said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most likely if the EU does not agree a new Deal by October 19th at the EU council Boris loses a VONC the subsequent week, then either MPs approve a new PM within 14 days, probably Bercow, to extend, then vote for an election or no new PM is agreed and there is a general election anyway

    I wonder if, in their desperation, MPs might vote for a new referendum, during that short interregnum.

    And, heck, they might be right. Perhaps a 2nd vote is the only way out, unhappy as that would be.
    I think it's the only way out - anything else means MPs need to take responsibility for their actions.

    Which sounds worse than it really is as a referendum should only be overridden by a second referendum especially as the 2 options that still remain (revoke / No Deal) aren't the same as the managed leave the leave campaign promised us.
    I do love watching Remainers convince themselves that somehow ignoring the result of the first vote can evet be presented in a why that will be accepted by those who are having their vote stolen by the losers.
  • Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Novo said:

    We are finally getting to the point where we realise that Brexit is undeliverable as long as Ireland remains divided. General Election and Revoke.

    No. Ireland being divided isn't a problem, Parliament being divided is.

    If Boris comes back with a thumping majority the quislings sabotaging the UKs negotiations become impotent. He can and should then say to Varadkar and von der Leyden (sp?) it is time for the EU and UK to speak as equals or where shall the customs border posts be built on the Irish border?
    Is Brexit really worth the reurn of the Troubles for the next thirty years. Bombs in London, Birmingham etc.
    I think you need to turn the question around: "Is it worth giving terrorists a veto over a democratic vote?"

    On the other hand, in the various declarations about the Good Friday agreement, the people of Northern Ireland were promised a degree of self determination unmatched by any other part of the UK. Its seems that walking away from that because of majority vote in the rest of the United Kingdom is asking for trouble.

    It therefore makes sense that Northern Ireland actually get a say here.
    Not only 'a say' but the final, decisive say.

    Chancellor Merkel pointed out calmly, politely and correctly in her morning call that the crucial question always was and still is the question of regulatory and customs alignment of NI. Everything pivots around that.

    This question is of such vital importance that it should be answered by the people who are so immensely and immediately affected by the consequences. This question can not be meaningfully answered by the EU or Great Britain.

    The whole Brexit saga was started by an act of direct democracy, and where we are now, another act of direct democracy is required to deliver at least a modicum of closure. The only pathway to a economically, socially and politically stable prospectus for NI is a basic, foundational act of direct democracy by the people of NI, and NI only.

    There is no satisfactory, workable alternative to a plebiscite in NI on its own future.
    The people of NI must have the final and decisive say.

    That's not what the EU is saying
    I don't think that's quite correct. It had been suggested to the May government (before her Chequers twist) and to the new government since.

    Nota bene, party soldier HYUFD had intimated ca. two months ago that the Boris team were at least considering doing the right thing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Andrew said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most likely if the EU does not agree a new Deal by October 19th at the EU council Boris loses a VONC the subsequent week, then either MPs approve a new PM within 14 days, probably Bercow, to extend, then vote for an election or no new PM is agreed and there is a general election anyway

    If we ended up with PM Bercow, I can imagine him rolling up at an EU Council meeting, and surprising everyone by revoking - the excuse being "a pause to think", or something similar. It's what he's been working for the last couple of years, so it'd be in character.
    He needs a Commons majority for revoke to do that otherwise the originally invocation of Article 50 by MPs remains in force
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Possible outcomes:

    Revoke: democratically disastrous
    Rereferend: highly divisive and a recognition of failure by the political class
    Leave with a deal: discredited
    Leave without a deal: highly disruptive, chaotic and highly divisive.

    Pick your preferred disaster.

    Which would you pick?
    Rereferend, I think. That, or leave with a deal. But the latter, I think, is now politically impossible.
    Thanks.

    I would put leave with a deal first then another referendum but very 50/50 for me.

    Either would do.

    But what a mess.
    Revoke then start the process for EEA and tell electorate that a planned, managed a d non damaging Brexit is being organised.

    The Loons will howl, a lot of Remainers will probably accept it and the bulk of the population will just get on with their lives
    Yes, Revoke and Rethink.
    Revoke is an end state, as it is being sold to us as being to put a stop to all this. That's fine, but lets not pretend the revoking crowd want a rethink and reconsideration of leave afterwards.

    Revoking is the action taken after a rethink not before. If remaining is best now, as I believe, making pretend noises on leave is just insulting.
    Revoke isn't an end state. We'll only get to an end state when 65%+ in every nation of the UK are content with the state quo and don't want to change it.
  • I suspect that if it comes to an extension, three months would mean a general election, while six months would mean a referendum.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960


    Hang on, I thought the EU agreed to work to find a sensible permanent solution to the challenge of the customs border in NI back in March, and the backstop was just a backstop.

    Turns out it was just the answer, fullstop, all along?

    In which case: bad faith.

    As I have said below, I can see the House being spooked into accepting May's Shit Deal by 31st October, rather than No Deal.

    I also expect Boris at the imminent election to say that at the first hint of bad faith on the part of the EU, he will walk away from that Deal. And there will be more than enough voters prepared to say "fair enough...."
  • matthiasfromhamburgmatthiasfromhamburg Posts: 957
    edited October 2019
    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Novo said:

    We are finally getting to the point where we realise that Brexit is undeliverable as long as Ireland remains divided. General Election and Revoke.

    No. Ireland being divided isn't a problem, Parliament being divided is.

    If Boris comes back with a thumping majority the quislings sabotaging the UKs negotiations become impotent. He can and should then say to Varadkar and von der Leyden (sp?) it is time for the EU and UK to speak as equals or where shall the customs border posts be built on the Irish border?
    Is Brexit really worth the reurn of the Troubles for the next thirty years. Bombs in London, Birmingham etc.
    I think you need to turn the question around: "Is it worth giving terrorists a veto over a democratic vote?"

    On the other hand, in the various declarations about the Good Friday agreement, the people of Northern Ireland were promised a degree of self determination unmatched by any other part of the UK. Its seems that walking away from that because of majority vote in the rest of the United Kingdom is asking for trouble.

    It therefore makes sense that Northern Ireland actually get a say here.
    Not only 'a say' but the final, decisive say.

    Chancellor Merkel pointed out calmly, politely and correctly in her morning call that the crucial question always was and still is the question of regulatory and customs alignment of NI. Everything pivots around that.

    This question is of such vital importance that it should be answered by the people who are so immensely and immediately affected by the consequences. This question can not be meaningfully answered by the EU or Great Britain.

    The whole Brexit saga was started by an act of direct democracy, and where we are now, another act of direct democracy is required to deliver at least a modicum of closure. The only pathway to a economically, socially and politically stable prospectus for NI is a basic, foundational act of direct democracy by the people of NI, and NI only.

    There is no satisfactory, workable alternative to a plebiscite in NI on its own future.
    The people of NI must have the final and decisive say.

    How odd, then, that the EU has been desperately trying to distance itself from Frau Merkel's remarks, ever since.

    https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1181557758908420096?s=20
    I'm not sure you have read that tweet correctly. The EU is distancing itself - without substantial desperation - from No10's "readout".
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    eek said:

    Byronic said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most likely if the EU does not agree a new Deal by October 19th at the EU council Boris loses a VONC the subsequent week, then either MPs approve a new PM within 14 days, probably Bercow, to extend, then vote for an election or no new PM is agreed and there is a general election anyway

    I wonder if, in their desperation, MPs might vote for a new referendum, during that short interregnum.

    And, heck, they might be right. Perhaps a 2nd vote is the only way out, unhappy as that would be.
    I think it's the only way out - anything else means MPs need to take responsibility for their actions.

    Which sounds worse than it really is as a referendum should only be overridden by a second referendum especially as the 2 options that still remain (revoke / No Deal) aren't the same as the managed leave the leave campaign promised us.
    I do love watching Remainers convince themselves that somehow ignoring the result of the first vote can evet be presented in a why that will be accepted by those who are having their vote stolen by the losers.
    You can argue that it has been disrespected but there is no way you can convincingly argue after all that has happened in the last three years that the referendum has in any way been “ignored”.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Most likely if the EU does not agree a new Deal by October 19th at the EU council Boris loses a VONC the subsequent week, then either MPs approve a new PM within 14 days, probably Bercow, to extend, then vote for an election or no new PM is agreed and there is a general election anyway

    Question for you - answer to inform my betting.

    If we get a GE, will the Tory manifesto Brexit position be a pure and simple leave asap with No Deal?

    Or will it be fudged up with the possibility of trying one last time to get a Deal but leave with No Deal if that effort fails?

    (Perhaps with the spin that the 'Surrender Act' screwed Johnson's negotiating position this time, so without that, with No Deal back as a credible threat, he remains confident that a Deal is on.)

    Keen to be able to predict this because I think it could potentially make a difference to the GE outcome.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DougSeal said:

    eek said:

    Byronic said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most likely if the EU does not agree a new Deal by October 19th at the EU council Boris loses a VONC the subsequent week, then either MPs approve a new PM within 14 days, probably Bercow, to extend, then vote for an election or no new PM is agreed and there is a general election anyway

    I wonder if, in their desperation, MPs might vote for a new referendum, during that short interregnum.

    And, heck, they might be right. Perhaps a 2nd vote is the only way out, unhappy as that would be.
    I think it's the only way out - anything else means MPs need to take responsibility for their actions.

    Which sounds worse than it really is as a referendum should only be overridden by a second referendum especially as the 2 options that still remain (revoke / No Deal) aren't the same as the managed leave the leave campaign promised us.
    I do love watching Remainers convince themselves that somehow ignoring the result of the first vote can evet be presented in a why that will be accepted by those who are having their vote stolen by the losers.
    You can argue that it has been disrespected but there is no way you can convincingly argue after all that has happened in the last three years that the referendum has in any way been “ignored”.
    the *result* will have been ignored if we remain
  • Byronic said:



    How odd, then, that the EU has been desperately trying to distance itself from Frau Merkel's remarks, ever since.

    https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1181557758908420096?s=20

    Hang on, I thought the EU agreed to work to find a sensible permanent solution to the challenge of the customs border in NI back in March, and the backstop was just a backstop.

    Turns out it was just the answer, fullstop, all along?

    In which case: bad faith.
    Which would make it a good job we didn't ratify May's Deal which has no unilateral exit ...
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    It has been clear for some time now that there is no deal that the EU are prepared to countenance that the Tory party would be willing to accept. In fact it is better put as "If the EU think it's a good deal then it's not a good deal for us".
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. spudgfsh, could you not just reverse that, depending on whether one prefers to blame the Conservatives/MPs or the EU?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    I see Gauke has given up on returning to the Conservative Party then.....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Mr. spudgfsh, could you not just reverse that, depending on whether one prefers to blame the Conservatives/MPs or the EU?

    Since the EU have already agreed to a deal without prior knowledge of whether the Conservative party would be willing to accept it, no.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300

    Mr. spudgfsh, could you not just reverse that, depending on whether one prefers to blame the Conservatives/MPs or the EU?

    Yes, but the EU has been clear on what it is and is not prepared to accept from the start, the Tory party (or more precisely the ERG) has had contradictory positions which they new no-one would accept.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Berlin still hasn't denied it. Not even in the vaguest terms.

    Get over it. The call happened. We even have Matthias here to prove it. We move on.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:



    How odd, then, that the EU has been desperately trying to distance itself from Frau Merkel's remarks, ever since.

    https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1181557758908420096?s=20

    Hang on, I thought the EU agreed to work to find a sensible permanent solution to the challenge of the customs border in NI back in March, and the backstop was just a backstop.

    Turns out it was just the answer, fullstop, all along?

    In which case: bad faith.
    Which would make it a good job we didn't ratify May's Deal which has no unilateral exit ...
    That said, there is always a certain kind of unilateral exit.

    We could just do a UDI, and repeal all laws that bind us, and dare the EU to invade us to reverse it.

    Not pretty, but it would work.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,026
    A nasty recession is obviously coming.

    All the data is pointing that way.

    Batten down the hatches for 2020.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    TGOHF2 said:
    Just need the prossecco makers to fall in line then.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Possible outcomes:

    Revoke: democratically disastrous
    Rereferend: highly divisive and a recognition of failure by the political class
    Leave with a deal: discredited
    Leave without a deal: highly disruptive, chaotic and highly divisive.

    Pick your preferred disaster.

    Which would you pick?
    Rereferend, I think. That, or leave with a deal. But the latter, I think, is now politically impossible.
    Thanks.

    I would put leave with a deal first then another referendum but very 50/50 for me.

    Either would do.

    But what a mess.
    Revoke then start the process for EEA and tell electorate that a planned, managed a d non damaging Brexit is being organised.

    The Loons will howl, a lot of Remainers will probably accept it and the bulk of the population will just get on with their lives
    Yes, Revoke and Rethink.
    Revoke is an end state, as it is being sold to us as being to put a stop to all this. That's fine, but lets not pretend the revoking crowd want a rethink and reconsideration of leave afterwards.

    Revoking is the action taken after a rethink not before. If remaining is best now, as I believe, making pretend noises on leave is just insulting.
    Revoke isn't an end state. We'll only get to an end state when 65%+ in every nation of the UK are content with the state quo and don't want to change it.
    Its intended as an end state and should not be sold to people as a pause.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Do they ever get bored of saying how much they want a deal and then not doing anything that indicates they want one?
  • I see Gauke has given up on returning to the Conservative Party then.....
    In its current state? Of course he has. He's not a raving loon.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Byronic said:

    Berlin still hasn't denied it. Not even in the vaguest terms.

    Get over it. The call happened. We even have Matthias here to prove it. We move on.
    The call happened. No one disputes that. The likelihood of it having been couched in the terms of the excitable language pumped out by Downing Street is slim.

    Occam's Razor leads anyone not completely unhinged by Leave mania to conclude that the dull Chancellor who never knowingly says anything memorable did not say anything memorable and that instead the wording emanated from the foetid brain of the occupant of Downing Street with a long track record of being both memorable in his phrasing and of lying when it suits him.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300

    A nasty recession is obviously coming.

    All the data is pointing that way.

    Batten down the hatches for 2020.

    It's always been on the cards, whether it's the back end of this year or into the next, a recession is coming. It won't be as bad as 2007/2009 but the world hasn't fully recovered from that one and it's still gonna hurt.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    kle4 said:

    Do they ever get bored of saying how much they want a deal and then not doing anything that indicates they want one?
    No, because the first person to admit "I no longer want a deal" will be the one blamed for No Deal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Novo said:

    We are finally getting to the point where we realise that Brexit is undeliverable as long as Ireland remains divided. General Election and Revoke.

    No. Ireland being divided isn't a problem, Parliament being divided is.

    If Boris comes back with a thumping majority the quislings sabotaging the UKs negotiations become impotent. He can and should then say to Varadkar and von der Leyden (sp?) it is time for the EU and UK to speak as equals or where shall the customs border posts be built on the Irish border?
    Is Brexit really worth the reurn of the Troubles for the next thirty years. Bombs in London, Birmingham etc.
    I think you need to turn the question around: "Is it worth giving terrorists a veto over a democratic vote?"

    On the other hand, in the various declarations about the Good Friday agreement, the people of Northern Ireland were promised a degree of self determination unmatched by any other part of the UK. Its seems that walking away from that because of majority vote in the rest of the United Kingdom is asking for trouble.

    It therefore makes sense that Northern Ireland actually get a say here.
    Not only 'a say' but the final, decisive say.

    Chancellor Merkel pointed out calmly, politely and correctly in her morning call that the crucial question always was and still is the question of regulatory and customs alignment of NI. Everything pivots around that.

    This question is of such vital importance that it should be answered by the people who are so immensely and immediately affected by the consequences. This question can not be meaningfully answered by the EU or Great Britain.

    The whole Brexit saga was started by an act of direct democracy, and where we are now, another act of direct democracy is required to deliver at least a modicum of closure. The only pathway to a economically, socially and politically stable prospectus for NI is a basic, foundational act of direct democracy by the people of NI, and NI only.

    There is no satisfactory, workable alternative to a plebiscite in NI on its own future.
    The people of NI must have the final and decisive say.

    How odd, then, that the EU has been desperately trying to distance itself from Frau Merkel's remarks, ever since.

    https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1181557758908420096?s=20
    I'm not sure you have read that tweet correctly. The EU is distancing itself - without substantial desperation - from No10's "readout".
    Which means nothing since the no.10 spin does not matter vs if it is true or not on the key points.
  • Well that's more encouraging. Perhaps the Merkel stuff was just Dom going rogue.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,026

    Hang on, I thought the EU agreed to work to find a sensible permanent solution to the challenge of the customs border in NI back in March, and the backstop was just a backstop.

    Turns out it was just the answer, fullstop, all along?

    In which case: bad faith.

    It's only bad faith on the UK's part if it doesn't accept that the permanent solution has to meet the same tests as the insurance policy and can't involve backsliding on the all-island economy, North-South cooperation, or the border.
    I think recent weeks have shown there is no such solution other than full CU membership that the EU would accept.

    I think that’s mad. Just as for currency, VAT or a plethora of other issues where ROI or NI differ there’s nothing to suggest that pure electronic checks (with no physical infrastructure) wouldn’t be perfectly acceptable for different tariffs.

    The only difference is being able to track the movement of goods across a border and/or at the point of dispatch/arrival on either side.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    I see Gauke has given up on returning to the Conservative Party then.....
    In its current state? Of course he has. He's not a raving loon.
    The Conservative Party ceased to exist when Johnson became leader.

    Whatever this new party is, it aint about conservatism.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited October 2019

    Byronic said:

    Berlin still hasn't denied it. Not even in the vaguest terms.

    Get over it. The call happened. We even have Matthias here to prove it. We move on.
    The call happened. No one disputes that. The likelihood of it having been couched in the terms of the excitable language pumped out by Downing Street is slim.

    Occam's Razor leads anyone not completely unhinged by Leave mania to conclude that the dull Chancellor who never knowingly says anything memorable did not say anything memorable and that instead the wording emanated from the foetid brain of the occupant of Downing Street with a long track record of being both memorable in his phrasing and of lying when it suits him.
    Of course Cummings has given it a sinister and rather brilliant spin (from his perspective). That's what he does, and here he is doing it superbly. The words are his not hers.

    But is the substance true? Does it give a proper flavour of Merkel's thinking? Yes, all the evidence points that way.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960

    Well that's more encouraging. Perhaps the Merkel stuff was just Dom going rogue.
    Or Dublin shat its pants.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960

    I see Gauke has given up on returning to the Conservative Party then.....
    In its current state? Of course he has. He's not a raving loon.
    A handful of Europhile headbangers got it to that state.

    They will not be missed.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. spudgfsh, the Commons was also clear (repeatedly) that May's deal was not going to pass yet the EU refused to countenance any real change to it.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    spudgfsh said:

    A nasty recession is obviously coming.

    All the data is pointing that way.

    Batten down the hatches for 2020.

    It's always been on the cards, whether it's the back end of this year or into the next, a recession is coming. It won't be as bad as 2007/2009 but the world hasn't fully recovered from that one and it's still gonna hurt.
    It rather depends on if Deutsche Bank can stay afloat as to the extent and degree
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300

    I see Gauke has given up on returning to the Conservative Party then.....
    In its current state? Of course he has. He's not a raving loon.
    A handful of Europhile headbangers got it to that state.

    They will not be missed.
    The conservative party has been pulling in different directions on Europe at the edges for 35 years. it's amazing when moderate centre right conservatives are considered europhile headbangers. It's been the ERG that's been banging on about europe for all of that time not the Europhiles, especially following the ERM debacle.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    A nasty recession is obviously coming.

    All the data is pointing that way.

    Batten down the hatches for 2020.

    Yep, definitely something in the air.

    A lot of political uncertainty around at the moment, and volatility in the markets.

    The worldwide car industry is absolutely on its knees already, and that will shortly have a knock-on effect on the providers of the increasingly-creative car finance that Western countries have ‘enjoyed’ in recent years.

    We’re a decade from the last recession, so it’s overdue. The only thing that might keep the recession away for a while is the US economy being propped up by the president’s need to be re-elected next November.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    I see Gauke has given up on returning to the Conservative Party then.....
    In its current state? Of course he has. He's not a raving loon.
    A handful of Europhile headbangers got it to that state.

    They will not be missed.
    I dont agree.

    I cannot understand the Brexit psychosis. Rational people have become advocates of implementing the worse deal possible. What has happened to these people?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    spudgfsh said:

    I see Gauke has given up on returning to the Conservative Party then.....
    In its current state? Of course he has. He's not a raving loon.
    A handful of Europhile headbangers got it to that state.

    They will not be missed.
    The conservative party has been pulling in different directions on Europe at the edges for 35 years. it's amazing when moderate centre right conservatives are considered europhile headbangers. It's been the ERG that's been banging on about europe for all of that time not the Europhiles, especially following the ERM debacle.
    Those Europhiles have had a sway mssively out of proportion to the number of voters they represent. Should have been cast adrift 35 years ago.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    HYUFD said:

    Andrew said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most likely if the EU does not agree a new Deal by October 19th at the EU council Boris loses a VONC the subsequent week, then either MPs approve a new PM within 14 days, probably Bercow, to extend, then vote for an election or no new PM is agreed and there is a general election anyway

    If we ended up with PM Bercow, I can imagine him rolling up at an EU Council meeting, and surprising everyone by revoking - the excuse being "a pause to think", or something similar. It's what he's been working for the last couple of years, so it'd be in character.
    He needs a Commons majority for revoke to do that otherwise the originally invocation of Article 50 by MPs remains in force
    That remains to be seen. It's never been tested in the courts.

    And it's rather strange to see a Brexit supporter championing the right of the House of Commons, rather than the prime minister, to determine what happens over Article 50.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    The Britain Elects poll tracker makes the trend of recent months stark:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1181562830312656896

    BXP up, Conservatives down. BXP down, Conservatives up.

    Lib Dems up, Labour down. Lib Dems down, Labour up.

    Bar the Green support moving between Green, Lib Dems and Labour, it's that simple - and has been since the local elections.

    Labour and the Lib Dems really, really need the Brexit Party to make a good showing in the next GE. If they have any nous they'll be engaging in the Dark Arts to encourage BXP to do so.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:


    Or it suggests that she understands there is absolutely no point in seeking to convince people who do not want to be convinced.

    There is literally nothing that can convince true believers like you that the EU can occasionally do something wrong/dangerous/silly/unflattering/ignoble, and literally nothing that can convince you Brexit Boris might, for once, do something right/clever/intelligent/principled/fair etc etc

    And then you have the lack-of-self-awareness to write this:


    "there is absolutely no point in seeking to convince people who do not want to be convinced."

    lol

    Johnson wants to win a general election. What he has done today makes that more likely. So it is a smart move. I am very hapy to accept that.

    Why do you not accept that Merkel might, on the evidence we have in front of us, have genuinely said something blunt, clumsy, and forthright?

    It is in keeping with her character. She can be quite cold, and overly analytical when she wants. She is also a scientist: she sees things logically. And the description of her words does give the impression of someone giving a brutally logical and politically unfortunate exposition of the EU's point of view.

    I can see how it might have happened, too. I imagine Boris was full of bonhomie and bluster, and then Merkel got bored of it, and set him straight, but she did it in a rather maladroit and Germanic way.

    Bob's your German uncle. There's your catastrophic phone-call. No need for further conspiracies, on either side.
    The EU has from the very start of this process shown only stubborn intransigence at every turn, so what is now being reported is fully consistent with that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    spudgfsh said:

    A nasty recession is obviously coming.

    All the data is pointing that way.

    Batten down the hatches for 2020.

    It's always been on the cards, whether it's the back end of this year or into the next, a recession is coming. It won't be as bad as 2007/2009 but the world hasn't fully recovered from that one and it's still gonna hurt.
    Were it to coincide with a no deal Brexit, it would very likely be every bit as bad.

  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300

    spudgfsh said:

    I see Gauke has given up on returning to the Conservative Party then.....
    In its current state? Of course he has. He's not a raving loon.
    A handful of Europhile headbangers got it to that state.

    They will not be missed.
    The conservative party has been pulling in different directions on Europe at the edges for 35 years. it's amazing when moderate centre right conservatives are considered europhile headbangers. It's been the ERG that's been banging on about europe for all of that time not the Europhiles, especially following the ERM debacle.
    Those Europhiles have had a sway mssively out of proportion to the number of voters they represent. Should have been cast adrift 35 years ago.
    For the conservative party to win a general election they need to attract those kinds of voters. in fact they need to attract some on the centre left as well. If they abandon those voters then they will never win a general election again. Once brexit is over (and one day it will) it will be very hard to attract those voters.
  • Mr. Royale, I always thought that signing up temporarily for something you wouldn't accept permanently is daft.

    And the line taken was particularly unpersuasive.
    "We don't want this to be permanent. We just want it to be something you can't leave without our permission."

    That's what I thought too.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited October 2019

    I see Gauke has given up on returning to the Conservative Party then.....
    In its current state? Of course he has. He's not a raving loon.
    A handful of Europhile headbangers got it to that state.

    They will not be missed.
    What utter crap. You really have lost your marbles if you think David Gauke, Amber Rudd, and Phil Hammond are 'Europhile headbangers'. Quite apart from anything else, we'd have left on March 29th, in an orderly fashion, with a sensible way forward, if more MPs had gone through the lobbies with them rather than with Corbyn and McDonnell.

    As for being missed, there is no future for the party without sensible figures like that. Boris and Cummings, by exploiting fear and promising things they know they can't possibly deliver, might win one election, and possibly win it quite decisively, against the weakest and most extreme opposition in modern times. But even for that one election they have to get the timing exactly right, as the chickens will be rapidly flying back to the roost.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    The Britain Elects poll tracker makes the trend of recent months stark:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1181562830312656896

    BXP up, Conservatives down. BXP down, Conservatives up.

    Lib Dems up, Labour down. Lib Dems down, Labour up.

    Bar the Green support moving between Green, Lib Dems and Labour, it's that simple - and has been since the local elections.

    Labour and the Lib Dems really, really need the Brexit Party to make a good showing in the next GE. If they have any nous they'll be engaging in the Dark Arts to encourage BXP to do so.

    Amazing how symmetric Con and BXP are.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    I see Gauke has given up on returning to the Conservative Party then.....
    In its current state? Of course he has. He's not a raving loon.
    The Conservative Party ceased to exist when Johnson became leader.

    Whatever this new party is, it aint about conservatism.
    9% in the EU elections was hardly a golden age.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Berlin still hasn't denied it. Not even in the vaguest terms.

    Get over it. The call happened. We even have Matthias here to prove it. We move on.
    The call happened. No one disputes that. The likelihood of it having been couched in the terms of the excitable language pumped out by Downing Street is slim.

    Occam's Razor leads anyone not completely unhinged by Leave mania to conclude that the dull Chancellor who never knowingly says anything memorable did not say anything memorable and that instead the wording emanated from the foetid brain of the occupant of Downing Street with a long track record of being both memorable in his phrasing and of lying when it suits him.
    Of course Cummings has given it a sinister and rather brilliant spin (from his perspective). That's what he does, and here he is doing it superbly. The words are his not hers.

    But is the substance true? Does it give a proper flavour of Merkel's thinking? Yes, all the evidence points that way.

    Once you’ve got as far as realising that the version given has been concocted in Downing Street, there’s no need to scrutinise further what might originally have been said.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andrew said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most likely if the EU does not agree a new Deal by October 19th at the EU council Boris loses a VONC the subsequent week, then either MPs approve a new PM within 14 days, probably Bercow, to extend, then vote for an election or no new PM is agreed and there is a general election anyway

    If we ended up with PM Bercow, I can imagine him rolling up at an EU Council meeting, and surprising everyone by revoking - the excuse being "a pause to think", or something similar. It's what he's been working for the last couple of years, so it'd be in character.
    He needs a Commons majority for revoke to do that otherwise the originally invocation of Article 50 by MPs remains in force
    That remains to be seen. It's never been tested in the courts.

    And it's rather strange to see a Brexit supporter championing the right of the House of Commons, rather than the prime minister, to determine what happens over Article 50.
    Statute law is supreme under the UK constitution with royal assent so no Bercow cannot revoke under our constitution without Commons approval given article 50 has already been invoked in law by MPs
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Sandpit said:

    A nasty recession is obviously coming.

    All the data is pointing that way.

    Batten down the hatches for 2020.

    Yep, definitely something in the air.

    A lot of political uncertainty around at the moment, and volatility in the markets.

    The worldwide car industry is absolutely on its knees already, and that will shortly have a knock-on effect on the providers of the increasingly-creative car finance that Western countries have ‘enjoyed’ in recent years.

    We’re a decade from the last recession, so it’s overdue. The only thing that might keep the recession away for a while is the US economy being propped up by the president’s need to be re-elected next November.
    The car industry is at the start of the electric revolution, and it is going to be very painful for those dependent on the existing industry model.
  • matthiasfromhamburgmatthiasfromhamburg Posts: 957
    edited October 2019
    From Byronic:

    Matthias wants us to believe, IIRC, that he is a humble condom vending machine repair man, from a small town near Stuttgart.

    I have my doubts. BUT he is a valuable asset to the site, and very articulate in his second language, so I say Wilkommen to him, as it is part of our Kultur.




    Thank you for your warm welcome.

    Just one little correction.

    I'm a resident of the Free and Hanseatic City of Hamburg which is farther away from Stuttgart than from London.

    And on the 'second language':

    I am in fact an Anglian. A real Anglian. From the real Anglia.

    I originally hail from a small hamlet near Arnis in Schleswig-Holstein, about halfway between the historic site of Haithabu/Hedeby and the ancestral home of the Duke of Edinburgh's family.
    Right at the heart of the real Anglia, where the real Anglians came from.

    A particularly industrious selection of my ancestors was invited by the crumbling remnants of the Brythannic province of the Roman Empire to migrate over there to earn their daily bread by defending your lot against the constant Pictish invasions.

    The boys stayed their welcome in full - and then some - and then proceeded to persuade your ancestors - by means unknown - to adopt my forefather's tongue - the Anglish language - as your new vernacular.

    (I hope I haven't messed up the blockquote)
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    spudgfsh said:

    I see Gauke has given up on returning to the Conservative Party then.....
    In its current state? Of course he has. He's not a raving loon.
    A handful of Europhile headbangers got it to that state.

    They will not be missed.
    The conservative party has been pulling in different directions on Europe at the edges for 35 years. it's amazing when moderate centre right conservatives are considered europhile headbangers. It's been the ERG that's been banging on about europe for all of that time not the Europhiles, especially following the ERM debacle.
    Those Europhiles have had a sway mssively out of proportion to the number of voters they represent. Should have been cast adrift 35 years ago.
    They should have been encouraged to join the SDP when first it formed.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited October 2019

    I see Gauke has given up on returning to the Conservative Party then.....
    In its current state? Of course he has. He's not a raving loon.
    A handful of Europhile headbangers got it to that state.

    They will not be missed.
    What utter crap. You really have lost your marbles if you think David Gauke, Amber Rudd, and Phil Hammond are 'Europhile headbangers'. Quite apart from anything else, we'd have left on March 29th, in an orderly fashion, with a sensible way forward, if more MPs had gone through the lobbies with them rather than with Corbyn and McDonnell.
    Depends whether you see the bigger picture or not.

    Sure, going by the last year or two, Rudd and Gauke et al have been fairly blameless.

    But what if you look at the last half century? Then it is very different. The reason we are in this dreadful fucking nightmare is because endless europhiles lied to the British people about how much sovereignty was being handed over. And they lied knowingly and blatantly, and sometimes they did it with a contemptuous smirk, to make it all worse.

    To compound that, they kept on promising referendums, and then kept denying them, such that the democratic resentment of the EU just grew and grew, until the moment when Cameron tried - too late - to "safely" vent some of this steam, and instead the whole machine blew up, destroying everything.

    So, in the grander scheme, the europhile bigwigs (left and right) are entirely to blame. Their lies, cant and deceit got us here, and it is good they are now suffering in exile. Indeed, it is one of few upsides to this whole sorry story.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,026
    RobD said:

    The Britain Elects poll tracker makes the trend of recent months stark:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1181562830312656896

    BXP up, Conservatives down. BXP down, Conservatives up.

    Lib Dems up, Labour down. Lib Dems down, Labour up.

    Bar the Green support moving between Green, Lib Dems and Labour, it's that simple - and has been since the local elections.

    Labour and the Lib Dems really, really need the Brexit Party to make a good showing in the next GE. If they have any nous they'll be engaging in the Dark Arts to encourage BXP to do so.

    Amazing how symmetric Con and BXP are.
    It looks to me the LDs and ‘others’ have chipped off a good few Tories too.

    Otherwise, Boris would be consistently very high 30s and even into the low 40s.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most likely if the EU does not agree a new Deal by October 19th at the EU council Boris loses a VONC the subsequent week, then either MPs approve a new PM within 14 days, probably Bercow, to extend, then vote for an election or no new PM is agreed and there is a general election anyway

    Question for you - answer to inform my betting.

    If we get a GE, will the Tory manifesto Brexit position be a pure and simple leave asap with No Deal?

    Or will it be fudged up with the possibility of trying one last time to get a Deal but leave with No Deal if that effort fails?

    (Perhaps with the spin that the 'Surrender Act' screwed Johnson's negotiating position this time, so without that, with No Deal back as a credible threat, he remains confident that a Deal is on.)

    Keen to be able to predict this because I think it could potentially make a difference to the GE outcome.
    It will be leave with No Deal unless the EU back down on the backstop (though if the Tories do win a majority I suspect Boris would just remove the GB backstop and let Northern Ireland voters decide by referendum on the NI backstop to get a Deal )
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047

    I see Gauke has given up on returning to the Conservative Party then.....
    In its current state? Of course he has. He's not a raving loon.
    A handful of Europhile headbangers got it to that state.

    They will not be missed.
    I dont agree.

    I cannot understand the Brexit psychosis. Rational people have become advocates of implementing the worse deal possible. What has happened to these people?
    Do you have the courage to turn that lense on yourself and ask what happened to you and your rationality?
  • Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andrew said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most likely if the EU does not agree a new Deal by October 19th at the EU council Boris loses a VONC the subsequent week, then either MPs approve a new PM within 14 days, probably Bercow, to extend, then vote for an election or no new PM is agreed and there is a general election anyway

    If we ended up with PM Bercow, I can imagine him rolling up at an EU Council meeting, and surprising everyone by revoking - the excuse being "a pause to think", or something similar. It's what he's been working for the last couple of years, so it'd be in character.
    He needs a Commons majority for revoke to do that otherwise the originally invocation of Article 50 by MPs remains in force
    That remains to be seen. It's never been tested in the courts.

    And it's rather strange to see a Brexit supporter championing the right of the House of Commons, rather than the prime minister, to determine what happens over Article 50.
    Not at all. There are plenty of us for example who believe the two supreme court judgements were correct. Where we disagree is that the Commons should be able to refuse to deliver Brexit and at the same time refuse to face the electorate because they are frightened of having to answer for their actoons.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Wow. We really are through the looking glass now. These idiots spurned three opportunities to vote for the withdrawal agreement and now they have the nerve to write to Juncker!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    RobD said:

    The Britain Elects poll tracker makes the trend of recent months stark:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1181562830312656896

    BXP up, Conservatives down. BXP down, Conservatives up.

    Lib Dems up, Labour down. Lib Dems down, Labour up.

    Bar the Green support moving between Green, Lib Dems and Labour, it's that simple - and has been since the local elections.

    Labour and the Lib Dems really, really need the Brexit Party to make a good showing in the next GE. If they have any nous they'll be engaging in the Dark Arts to encourage BXP to do so.

    Amazing how symmetric Con and BXP are.
    It looks to me the LDs and ‘others’ have chipped off a good few Tories too.

    Otherwise, Boris would be consistently very high 30s and even into the low 40s.
    I think a fair few have gone to “won’t vote”. If the Conservatives become explicitly a “no deal” party, more will do the same thing.
  • NorthstarNorthstar Posts: 140
    A small bit of silver lining when it comes to the current mess?

    https://twitter.com/mattgrossmann/status/1181369232069660672?s=21
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Berlin still hasn't denied it. Not even in the vaguest terms.

    Get over it. The call happened. We even have Matthias here to prove it. We move on.
    The call happened. No one disputes that. The likelihood of it having been couched in the terms of the excitable language pumped out by Downing Street is slim.

    Occam's Razor leads anyone not completely unhinged by Leave mania to conclude that the dull Chancellor who never knowingly says anything memorable did not say anything memorable and that instead the wording emanated from the foetid brain of the occupant of Downing Street with a long track record of being both memorable in his phrasing and of lying when it suits him.
    Of course Cummings has given it a sinister and rather brilliant spin (from his perspective). That's what he does, and here he is doing it superbly. The words are his not hers.

    But is the substance true? Does it give a proper flavour of Merkel's thinking? Yes, all the evidence points that way.

    The evidence referred to in your second paragraph being the evidence you say is false in your first paragraph?

    Boris wrote two contradictory articles before deciding which side to back. You’ve managed that feat in one brief posting. Chapeau.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Interesting Trump impeachment poll:
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/10/new-poll-20-point-increase-impeachment-inquiry-republicans.html

    Very significant movement in the Republican party.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,026

    I see Gauke has given up on returning to the Conservative Party then.....
    In its current state? Of course he has. He's not a raving loon.
    A handful of Europhile headbangers got it to that state.

    They will not be missed.
    I dont agree.

    I cannot understand the Brexit psychosis. Rational people have become advocates of implementing the worse deal possible. What has happened to these people?
    Very simple: Brexiteers feel British identity and sovereignty is threatened by the EU, like a slowly boiling frog.

    The EU does very very little to assuage these fears.

    So here we are.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572

    The Britain Elects poll tracker makes the trend of recent months stark:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1181562830312656896

    BXP up, Conservatives down. BXP down, Conservatives up.

    Lib Dems up, Labour down. Lib Dems down, Labour up.

    Bar the Green support moving between Green, Lib Dems and Labour, it's that simple - and has been since the local elections.

    Labour and the Lib Dems really, really need the Brexit Party to make a good showing in the next GE. If they have any nous they'll be engaging in the Dark Arts to encourage BXP to do so.

    tbh I'm surprised that the graph shows the Conservatives falling back. The four most recent polls with fieldwork since the start of October show that, by comparison with other polls since the Euro elections, the Cons are currently:
    - at a peak of 38% with Opinium
    - at a peak of 33% with ComRes
    - equalling the peak of 31% with BMG
    - only 1% below the YouGov peak of 35%
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    I am in fact an Anglian. A real Anglian. From the real Anglia.

    I originally hail from a small hamlet near Arnis in Schleswig-Holstein, about halfway between the historic site of Haithabu/Hedeby and the ancestral home of the Duke of Edinburgh's family.
    Right at the heart of the real Anglia, where the real Anglians came from.

    East Anglia should really be called West Anglia. :)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andrew said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most likely if the EU does not agree a new Deal by October 19th at the EU council Boris loses a VONC the subsequent week, then either MPs approve a new PM within 14 days, probably Bercow, to extend, then vote for an election or no new PM is agreed and there is a general election anyway

    If we ended up with PM Bercow, I can imagine him rolling up at an EU Council meeting, and surprising everyone by revoking - the excuse being "a pause to think", or something similar. It's what he's been working for the last couple of years, so it'd be in character.
    He needs a Commons majority for revoke to do that otherwise the originally invocation of Article 50 by MPs remains in force
    That remains to be seen. It's never been tested in the courts.

    And it's rather strange to see a Brexit supporter championing the right of the House of Commons, rather than the prime minister, to determine what happens over Article 50.
    Statute law is supreme under the UK constitution with royal assent so no Bercow cannot revoke under our constitution without Commons approval given article 50 has already been invoked in law by MPs
    Of course, that doesn't follow at all.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andrew said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most likely if the EU does not agree a new Deal by October 19th at the EU council Boris loses a VONC the subsequent week, then either MPs approve a new PM within 14 days, probably Bercow, to extend, then vote for an election or no new PM is agreed and there is a general election anyway

    If we ended up with PM Bercow, I can imagine him rolling up at an EU Council meeting, and surprising everyone by revoking - the excuse being "a pause to think", or something similar. It's what he's been working for the last couple of years, so it'd be in character.
    He needs a Commons majority for revoke to do that otherwise the originally invocation of Article 50 by MPs remains in force
    That remains to be seen. It's never been tested in the courts.

    And it's rather strange to see a Brexit supporter championing the right of the House of Commons, rather than the prime minister, to determine what happens over Article 50.
    Statute law is supreme under the UK constitution with royal assent so no Bercow cannot revoke under our constitution without Commons approval given article 50 has already been invoked in law by MPs
    Opinions differ - https://news.sky.com/story/government-could-bypass-parliament-to-revoke-article-50-11571873

    In any event, A50 was not “invoked in law” by MPs. The notification act gave the executive authority to invoke Article 50, which TMay did on 28/03/2017. I don’t think primary legislation is needed to revoke as it would preserve the status quo rather than change it radically, which was the reason for the SC decision in Miller.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    I see Gauke has given up on returning to the Conservative Party then.....
    In its current state? Of course he has. He's not a raving loon.
    A handful of Europhile headbangers got it to that state.

    They will not be missed.
    I dont agree.

    I cannot understand the Brexit psychosis. Rational people have become advocates of implementing the worse deal possible. What has happened to these people?
    Do you have the courage to turn that lense on yourself and ask what happened to you and your rationality?
    Yes, a deal would be better than No Deal. I cannot understand why a worse deal than we have now is somehow better? Brexit in any form is worse and we will have no democratic representation or infuence! It is crazy!
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    From Byronic:

    Matthias wants us to believe, IIRC, that he is a humble condom vending machine repair man, from a small town near Stuttgart.

    I have my doubts. BUT he is a valuable asset to the site, and very articulate in his second language, so I say Wilkommen to him, as it is part of our Kultur.




    Thank you for your warm welcome.

    Just one little correction.

    I'm a resident of the Free and Hanseatic City of Hamburg which is farther away from Stuttgart than from London.

    And on the 'second language':

    I am in fact an Anglian. A real Anglian. From the real Anglia.

    I originally hail from a small hamlet near Arnis in Schleswig-Holstein, about halfway between the historic site of Haithabu/Hedeby and the ancestral home of the Duke of Edinburgh's family.
    Right at the heart of the real Anglia, where the real Anglians came from.

    A particularly industrious selection of my ancestors was invited by the crumbling remnants of the Brythannic province of the Roman Empire to migrate over there to earn their daily bread by defending your lot against the constant Pictish invasions.

    The boys stayed their welcome in full - and then some - and then proceeded to persuade your ancestors - by means unknown - to adopt my forefather's tongue - the Anglish language - as your new vernacular.

    (I hope I haven't messed up the blockquote)

    You have messed up the blockquotes, but your English is exceptional.

    You are wasted on condom vending machine repair work.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149
    edited October 2019

    I am in fact an Anglian. A real Anglian. From the real Anglia.

    I originally hail from a small hamlet near Arnis in Schleswig-Holstein, about halfway between the historic site of Haithabu/Hedeby and the ancestral home of the Duke of Edinburgh's family.
    Right at the heart of the real Anglia, where the real Anglians came from.

    East Anglia should really be called West Anglia. :)
    How nice to have such an amusing but accurate posting - very much needed today.
  • DougSeal said:

    eek said:

    Byronic said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most likely if the EU does not agree a new Deal by October 19th at the EU council Boris loses a VONC the subsequent week, then either MPs approve a new PM within 14 days, probably Bercow, to extend, then vote for an election or no new PM is agreed and there is a general election anyway

    I wonder if, in their desperation, MPs might vote for a new referendum, during that short interregnum.

    And, heck, they might be right. Perhaps a 2nd vote is the only way out, unhappy as that would be.
    I think it's the only way out - anything else means MPs need to take responsibility for their actions.

    Which sounds worse than it really is as a referendum should only be overridden by a second referendum especially as the 2 options that still remain (revoke / No Deal) aren't the same as the managed leave the leave campaign promised us.
    I do love watching Remainers convince themselves that somehow ignoring the result of the first vote can evet be presented in a why that will be accepted by those who are having their vote stolen by the losers.
    You can argue that it has been disrespected but there is no way you can convincingly argue after all that has happened in the last three years that the referendum has in any way been “ignored”.
    They are going to ignore the result. That much is clear. As I said they are in dreamland if they think they will be able to sell that to the millions who will consider their vote has been stolen.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    There have been rumours of this for weeks but I suspect a NDA has been signed or will be signed, the accuser in question was over age so sounds more Bill Clinton than anything
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912
    Byronic said:

    I see Gauke has given up on returning to the Conservative Party then.....
    In its current state? Of course he has. He's not a raving loon.
    A handful of Europhile headbangers got it to that state.

    They will not be missed.
    What utter crap. You really have lost your marbles if you think David Gauke, Amber Rudd, and Phil Hammond are 'Europhile headbangers'. Quite apart from anything else, we'd have left on March 29th, in an orderly fashion, with a sensible way forward, if more MPs had gone through the lobbies with them rather than with Corbyn and McDonnell.
    Depends whether you see the bigger picture or not.

    Sure, going by the last year or two, Rudd and Gauke et al have been fairly blameless.

    But what if you look at the last half century? Then it is very different. The reason we are in this dreadful fucking nightmare is because endless europhiles lied to the British people about how much sovereignty was being handed over. And they lied knowingly and blatantly, and sometimes they did it with a contemptuous smirk, to make it all worse.

    To compound that, they kept on promising referendums, and then kept denying them, such that the democratic resentment of the EU just grew and grew, until the moment when Cameron tried - too late - to "safely" vent some of this steam, and instead the whole machine blew up, destroying everything.

    So, in the grander scheme, the europhile bigwigs (left and right) are entirely to blame. Their lies, cant and deceit got us here, and it is good they are now suffering in exile. Indeed, it is one of few upsides to this whole sorry story.
    If there was any lying about the EU going on over the last half century it came mainly from the Eurosceptic press and all their bollocks stories about straight bananas and the like.
    Our problem is that half the country wants to be in the EU and half wants to be out. When we were in we were only half in, which seemed like a compromise, but now we are to be out we are to be completely out, which sure as hell doesn't feel like a compromise. So the problem of voter anger is going to get worse not better. It's just that this time the angry people will be the young, city dwellers and the well educated, and each of those groups is in a far better position to make their anger felt. I just hope the Brexiteers are ready for it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited October 2019
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting Trump impeachment poll:
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/10/new-poll-20-point-increase-impeachment-inquiry-republicans.html

    Very significant movement in the Republican party.

    Only 49% back removing Trump from office though, little different to the 48% who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, even if 58% back an impeachment inquiry
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most likely if the EU does not agree a new Deal by October 19th at the EU council Boris loses a VONC the subsequent week, then either MPs approve a new PM within 14 days, probably Bercow, to extend, then vote for an election or no new PM is agreed and there is a general election anyway

    Question for you - answer to inform my betting.

    If we get a GE, will the Tory manifesto Brexit position be a pure and simple leave asap with No Deal?

    Or will it be fudged up with the possibility of trying one last time to get a Deal but leave with No Deal if that effort fails?

    (Perhaps with the spin that the 'Surrender Act' screwed Johnson's negotiating position this time, so without that, with No Deal back as a credible threat, he remains confident that a Deal is on.)

    Keen to be able to predict this because I think it could potentially make a difference to the GE outcome.
    It will be leave with No Deal unless the EU back down on the backstop (though if the Tories do win a majority I suspect Boris would just remove the GB backstop and let Northern Ireland voters decide by referendum on the NI backstop to get a Deal )
    But we’re leaving on 31/10 do or die so that’s not possible
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Perhaps there might be a miracle .

    If the miracle happens and a deal is agreed then I expect that to get through the Commons .

    I think we have to deal with the reality of the situation , we have a PM and team behind him that will drive further division and trash what’s left of relations with the EU in a pre Brexit election .

    This scorched earth policy is deeply reprehensible but could succeed .

    Remainers in parliament have a choice to risk this or try and salvage something from the wreckage .

    The debate can centre around the future relationship rather than whether Brexit happens , this is where a closer relationship is possible . This has more cross over in the electorate .

    Once you take actual Brexit out of the equation in terms of it actually happening you do reduce some of the toxicity out of politics.

    It’s easier to get a crossover between voters on say environmental standards , food quality etc .

  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    DougSeal said:

    eek said:

    Byronic said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most likely if the EU does not agree a new Deal by October 19th at the EU council Boris loses a VONC the subsequent week, then either MPs approve a new PM within 14 days, probably Bercow, to extend, then vote for an election or no new PM is agreed and there is a general election anyway

    I wonder

    I think it's the only way out - anything else means MPs need to take responsibility for their actions.

    Which sounds worse than it really is as a referendum should only be overridden by a second referendum especially as the 2 options that still remain (revoke / No Deal) aren't the same as the managed leave the leave campaign promised us.
    I do love watching Remainers convince themselves that somehow ignoring the result of the first vote can evet be presented in a why that will be accepted by those who are having their vote stolen by the losers.
    You can argue that it has been disrespected but there is no way you can convincingly argue after all that has happened in the last three years that the referendum has in any way been “ignored”.
    They are going to ignore the result. That much is clear. As I said they are in dreamland if they think they will be able to sell that to the millions who will consider their vote has been stolen.
    Parliament is soverign where as advisory referendum are not!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,026

    RobD said:

    The Britain Elects poll tracker makes the trend of recent months stark:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1181562830312656896

    BXP up, Conservatives down. BXP down, Conservatives up.

    Lib Dems up, Labour down. Lib Dems down, Labour up.

    Bar the Green support moving between Green, Lib Dems and Labour, it's that simple - and has been since the local elections.

    Labour and the Lib Dems really, really need the Brexit Party to make a good showing in the next GE. If they have any nous they'll be engaging in the Dark Arts to encourage BXP to do so.

    Amazing how symmetric Con and BXP are.
    It looks to me the LDs and ‘others’ have chipped off a good few Tories too.

    Otherwise, Boris would be consistently very high 30s and even into the low 40s.
    I think a fair few have gone to “won’t vote”. If the Conservatives become explicitly a “no deal” party, more will do the same thing.
    Indeed.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andrew said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most likely if the EU does not agree a new Deal by October 19th at the EU council Boris loses a VONC the subsequent week, then either MPs approve a new PM within 14 days, probably Bercow, to extend, then vote for an election or no new PM is agreed and there is a general election anyway

    If we ended up with PM Bercow, I can imagine him rolling up at an EU Council meeting, and surprising everyone by revoking - the excuse being "a pause to think", or something similar. It's what he's been working for the last couple of years, so it'd be in character.
    He needs a Commons majority for revoke to do that otherwise the originally invocation of Article 50 by MPs remains in force
    That remains to be seen. It's never been tested in the courts.

    And it's rather strange to see a Brexit supporter championing the right of the House of Commons, rather than the prime minister, to determine what happens over Article 50.
    Statute law is supreme under the UK constitution with royal assent so no Bercow cannot revoke under our constitution without Commons approval given article 50 has already been invoked in law by MPs
    Article 50 was not invoked by statute. The law passed gave the PM the power to invoke. She had discretion over when, or whether, to use that power.

    It might require another law to revoke, but it's possible that the power to do so resides with the PM. It's a shame the Act didn't set this out, one way or the other, explicitly.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    A nasty recession is obviously coming.

    All the data is pointing that way.

    Batten down the hatches for 2020.

    Yep, definitely something in the air.

    A lot of political uncertainty around at the moment, and volatility in the markets.

    The worldwide car industry is absolutely on its knees already, and that will shortly have a knock-on effect on the providers of the increasingly-creative car finance that Western countries have ‘enjoyed’ in recent years.

    We’re a decade from the last recession, so it’s overdue. The only thing that might keep the recession away for a while is the US economy being propped up by the president’s need to be re-elected next November.
    The car industry is at the start of the electric revolution, and it is going to be very painful for those dependent on the existing industry model.
    Yes, there’s several big changes all happening at once, with the result that no-one is buying new cars right now as we all wait to see what will happen in the next couple of years.

    From a more general economic perspective, several recent classic car auctions have failed to meet expectations, suggesting that people are holding on to their cash.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Byronic said:

    Berlin still hasn't denied it. Not even in the vaguest terms.

    Get over it. The call happened. We even have Matthias here to prove it. We move on.
    Didn't Rudd resign complaining that Cabinet wasn't being told what was going on? Presumably it was being kept to a sub-committee because Cabinet leaks like a sieve
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited October 2019


    If there was any lying about the EU going on over the last half century it came mainly from the Eurosceptic press and all their bollocks stories about straight bananas and the like.
    Our problem is that half the country wants to be in the EU and half wants to be out. When we were in we were only half in, which seemed like a compromise, but now we are to be out we are to be completely out, which sure as hell doesn't feel like a compromise. So the problem of voter anger is going to get worse not better. It's just that this time the angry people will be the young, city dwellers and the well educated, and each of those groups is in a far better position to make their anger felt. I just hope the Brexiteers are ready for it.

    If we crash out in three weeks' time, the angriest will be those who voted Leave, because they are going to find what they voted for is a disaster rather than the promised land they were sold. The anger will probably be all over the place (they certainly won't want to admit they were wrong), but no doubt most of it will end up directed at the Conservative Party, for being in charge of the debacle.
  • I am in fact an Anglian. A real Anglian. From the real Anglia.

    I originally hail from a small hamlet near Arnis in Schleswig-Holstein, about halfway between the historic site of Haithabu/Hedeby and the ancestral home of the Duke of Edinburgh's family.
    Right at the heart of the real Anglia, where the real Anglians came from.

    East Anglia should really be called West Anglia. :)
    Ours is the Anglosphere. All your bases are belong to us. ;)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    edited October 2019



    Parliament is soverign where as advisory referendum are not!

    Like I said keep deluding yourself. The narrative will be.one of complete betrayal and you Remaniacs will own that
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting Trump impeachment poll:
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/10/new-poll-20-point-increase-impeachment-inquiry-republicans.html

    Very significant movement in the Republican party.

    Only 49% back removing Trump from office though, little different to the 48% who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, even if 58% back an impeachment inquiry
    Trumpton.
  • I see Gauke has given up on returning to the Conservative Party then.....
    In its current state? Of course he has. He's not a raving loon.
    A handful of Europhile headbangers got it to that state.

    They will not be missed.
    Breathtaking.... it's like history doesn't exist since circa 1993
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    HYUFD said:

    It will be leave with No Deal unless the EU back down on the backstop (though if the Tories do win a majority I suspect Boris would just remove the GB backstop and let Northern Ireland voters decide by referendum on the NI backstop to get a Deal )

    OK thanks.

    So Tories run on a clear and unambiguous No Deal.

    That's what I'm hoping.

    If that's the case the Benn Act will not have hurt the opposition too much.
This discussion has been closed.