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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling trend that suggests a Cummings “People v Parliamen

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited October 9 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling trend that suggests a Cummings “People v Parliament” battle over Brexit might struggle

The Evening Standard is carrying an analysis this afternoon of how opinion over Brexit has moved since the referendum in 2016. It is based on 300 polls and responses to its “Brexit right or wrong” and how respondents would now vote.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,056
    1st. Like Remain.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,773
    edited October 9
    EDIT: Second like Fiji.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894
    Nah I think this is perfectly consistent with the polling, the 47% in favour of still leaving consistently add through to the sum of the Brexit + Tory scores. They're more lopsided than the Lib Dem + Labour which garner a similar total and also have Greens and national party votes to broadly compete with.

    Leave Labour + Tory remain exist but likely cancel in my opinion, the former being particularly prevalent in the North East & other Labour heartlands and latter in the home counties.
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 510
    4th like Sajid 'The Jav' Javid
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 823
    Many think this is a trump card but a small victory for Remain or a large one on a boycotted vote by Leave would just divide the country further. Plus the Tories (or the Brexit Party if they replace the Tories) would go into the next election with a commitment to Leave regardless of the next result. They would use the Lib Dem line that a GE win on a manifesto promise trumps the latest referendum, and say the second referendum was illegitimate anyway. Labour would probably collapse to sub-20% after a cancellation of Brexit and turnout for the Right would be huge.
  • isamisam Posts: 28,277
    edited October 9
    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 818
    A 52:48 victory for Remain in a second referendum would of course put this to bed once and for all...oh wait
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,515
    Nasty terror shooting in Germany. Synagogue. Grenade thrown, Suspects on run.

    The second terror attack in Germany in three days.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,734
    Gabs2 said:

    Many think this is a trump card but a small victory for Remain or a large one on a boycotted vote by Leave would just divide the country further. Plus the Tories (or the Brexit Party if they replace the Tories) would go into the next election with a commitment to Leave regardless of the next result. They would use the Lib Dem line that a GE win on a manifesto promise trumps the latest referendum, and say the second referendum was illegitimate anyway. Labour would probably collapse to sub-20% after a cancellation of Brexit and turnout for the Right would be huge.

    I think that is correct - a referendum, unless supported by the Conservative party (and there's no chance of that) wouldn't settle anything if it produced a Revoke result.

    The only proviso is that, if by some chance Labour managed to ditch Corbyn before the post-referendum GE and chose a vaguely electable leader instead, the polling would immediately be transformed.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 12,207
    edited October 9

    1st. Like Remain.

    .... in a poll of whats least likely to bring together our divided nation.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,284
    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Do you mean 2016? In which case, no they didn't
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,200
    Oldest Nobel laureate, at the age of 97:
    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/oct/09/nobel-prize-in-chemistry-awarded-for-work-on-lithium-ion-batteries

    Perhaps slightly too late to be career enhancing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,776
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Remainers just have to steer their way to a new referendum, and they will win. I used to think Leave would win again, but not any more. Too many people want Brexit forgotten, and Remain is perceived as the easiest way to that (even though it won't be forgotten, in reality)
    Not there yet, by a long way, but perhaps time for my periodic (and annoying) reminder that I predicted Brexit wouldn't happen in the end just after the result.
    I could see Remain winning by 52% to 48% on a turnout of 50% and 7m remain votes to 6m votes for Leave.

    All the numbers well down on 2016 and absolutely nothing settled whatsoever...

    Unless it was No Deal Vs Deal I'd sit it out personally. And if its May's Deal Vs Remain I doubt there would even be a formal "Leave" campaign. It would just boil down to Remainers having a conversation with each other and half the country excluded.
    Anyone who thinks May's deal is remain is too dumb to vote hence it would be no loss.
    I'd have gone for May's Deal on both V2 and MV3 but now Merkel has said May's deal is actually the annexation of Northern Ireland its difficult to see many Leavers (or Remainers) being able to support it.
    You have no idea what Merkel said.
    LOL! Yes we do!
    No you don't. Show me the transcript.
    Don't need a transcript to have an "idea" what Merkel said.
    Oh. So now it's an "idea". Yours presumably. Well perhaps you will be amazed to hear that your idea means absolutely fuck all in the scheme of things.
    Plenty have defended the alleged thrust of merkels supposed comments as true. The argument over precise words used is both tiresome and pointless, and outrage at the words or misinterpretation of the words is hypocritical garbage from no.10 spinners and their opponents. (Like the decrying a blame game even as both sides play it)

    The only thing that matters is whether the key points are broadly correct. Few seem to dispute that, only the tone and precise words.


  • isamisam Posts: 28,277
    Freggles said:

    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Do you mean 2016? In which case, no they didn't
    Funnily enough I meant 2015, when they did.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534
    Freggles said:

    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Do you mean 2016? In which case, no they didn't
    2015 is a valid comparison, prior to the formal campaign. An overwhelming majority of polls said Remain would win: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2015
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,515

    Gabs2 said:

    Many think this is a trump card but a small victory for Remain or a large one on a boycotted vote by Leave would just divide the country further. Plus the Tories (or the Brexit Party if they replace the Tories) would go into the next election with a commitment to Leave regardless of the next result. They would use the Lib Dem line that a GE win on a manifesto promise trumps the latest referendum, and say the second referendum was illegitimate anyway. Labour would probably collapse to sub-20% after a cancellation of Brexit and turnout for the Right would be huge.

    I think that is correct - a referendum, unless supported by the Conservative party (and there's no chance of that) wouldn't settle anything if it produced a Revoke result.

    The only proviso is that, if by some chance Labour managed to ditch Corbyn before the post-referendum GE and chose a vaguely electable leader instead, the polling would immediately be transformed.
    Perhaps we need to get beyond the idea that ANYTHING might settle this. Even if, miraculously, we get a deal and it passes and we Brexit, then millions of Remainers, having come so close to their prize, will feel cheated, and the debate will rumble on, in reverse, and we'd surely have another vote - back in! - as soon as the Tories lost power.

    Brexit is Forever. I wish it wasn't the case, but it is. it may subside in a decade or two, like Quebec Indy, but for the foreseeable, we are stuck with it.

    In that light, we have to do what's best for the country, as things stand, whatever happens in the future.

    So a new referendum might be the least worst option, if we can't get a passable deal.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,773
    isam said:

    Freggles said:

    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Do you mean 2016? In which case, no they didn't
    Funnily enough I meant 2015, when they did.
    Cameron should have called a snap referendum for October/November 2015 without the renegotiation.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,324
    edited October 9
    This polling evidence should be given much more publicity.

    There are endless arguments put up by Remainers why for cultural political and economic reasons 'Remaining' is the best option.

    The only argument anyone hears from 'Leavers' is that 17.5 million people voted for it. Not a single justification for their vote (which isn't surprising because nearly all were proved to be lies).

    That's perhaps how the meme that Leavers are thickos gained traction
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894
    Nigelb said:

    Oldest Nobel laureate, at the age of 97:
    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/oct/09/nobel-prize-in-chemistry-awarded-for-work-on-lithium-ion-batteries

    Perhaps slightly too late to be career enhancing.

    Turns out his work was good enough for a nobel prize after all.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 818
    edited October 9
    Roger said:

    This polling evidence should be given much more publicity.

    There are endless arguments put up by Remainers why for cultural political and economic reasons 'Remaining' is the best option.

    The only argument anyone hears from 'Leavers' is that 17.5 million people voted for it. Not a single justification for their vote which isn't surprising because nearly all were lies.

    That's perhaps how the meme that Leavers are thickos gained traction

    Where do people get these sweeping generalisations from eh? Like the one about Remainers all being patronising smug and superior. I have no idea at all....
  • NooNoo Posts: 1,661
    UK will still owe money to EU even if it leaves with no deal, says budget commissioner
    Britain would still have to pay into the EU budget until the end of next year even if it leaves without a deal on 31 October, Gunther Oettinger, the EU budget commissioner, has said. Speaking at a news conference in Brussels he said the UK was fully signed up to the EU budget for 2020 - its final year of EU contributions.


    That popping sound you can hear is a thousand Brexists' internal carotid arteries rupturing simultaneously :lol:
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 7,418

    Freggles said:

    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Do you mean 2016? In which case, no they didn't
    2015 is a valid comparison, prior to the formal campaign. An overwhelming majority of polls said Remain would win: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2015
    Polls tweak their methodology, especially if it is found that they have got things wrong in the past. So presumably the newer polls on Brexit are more robust than they were before the referendum.
  • isamisam Posts: 28,277

    Freggles said:

    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Do you mean 2016? In which case, no they didn't
    2015 is a valid comparison, prior to the formal campaign. An overwhelming majority of polls said Remain would win: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2015
    Yes. Not sure why someone thought I meant a different year that would have made my post completely incorrect 🤷🏻‍♂️
  • NooNoo Posts: 1,661

    Freggles said:

    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Do you mean 2016? In which case, no they didn't
    2015 is a valid comparison, prior to the formal campaign. An overwhelming majority of polls said Remain would win: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2015
    Polls tweak their methodology, especially if it is found that they have got things wrong in the past. So presumably the newer polls on Brexit are more robust than they were before the referendum.
    Pollsters learn from their mistakes. But Brexists don't.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Oldest Nobel laureate, at the age of 97:
    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/oct/09/nobel-prize-in-chemistry-awarded-for-work-on-lithium-ion-batteries

    Perhaps slightly too late to be career enhancing.

    Turns out his work was good enough for a nobel prize after all.
    Worthy winners. The 21st century would be completely different without Lithium Ion.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,862
    edited October 9
    Roger said:

    This polling evidence should be given much more publicity.

    There are endless arguments put up by Remainers why for cultural political and economic reasons 'Remaining' is the best option.

    The only argument anyone hears from 'Leavers' is that 17.5 million people voted for it. Not a single justification for their vote (which isn't surprising because nearly all were proved to be lies).

    That's perhaps how the meme that Leavers are thickos gained traction

    It always seems to be our less cerebrally gifted posters who speak about their opponents as 'thickos' or similar.

    I'm sure that's not the case in this instance. :smile:
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 823
    Noo said:

    UK will still owe money to EU even if it leaves with no deal, says budget commissioner
    Britain would still have to pay into the EU budget until the end of next year even if it leaves without a deal on 31 October, Gunther Oettinger, the EU budget commissioner, has said. Speaking at a news conference in Brussels he said the UK was fully signed up to the EU budget for 2020 - its final year of EU contributions.


    That popping sound you can hear is a thousand Brexists' internal carotid arteries rupturing simultaneously :lol:

    The House of Lords addressed this. There would be about 5% of the total that is legally obliged. The rest is not.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,200
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Oldest Nobel laureate, at the age of 97:
    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/oct/09/nobel-prize-in-chemistry-awarded-for-work-on-lithium-ion-batteries

    Perhaps slightly too late to be career enhancing.

    Turns out his work was good enough for a nobel prize after all.
    And interesting that sulphur, which was involved in the original battery chemistry, could make a return over the next decade.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,330

    A 52:48 victory for Remain in a second referendum would of course put this to bed once and for all...oh wait


    Turnout would be well down on 2016 as well as leavers would stay at home.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 12,207
    isam said:

    Freggles said:

    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Do you mean 2016? In which case, no they didn't
    Funnily enough I meant 2015, when they did.
    In the last week before the 2016 Referendum there were 13 polls

    10 polls showed Remain winning by between 1% to 8%

    3 showed leave winning by 1% or 2%
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,035
    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Often said, but fake news.

    The majority of polls summarised on this well known political website on Wed 22nd June 2016 were showed Leave winning.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/the-online-polls-all-have-leave-ahead/

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,734
    Byronic said:

    Perhaps we need to get beyond the idea that ANYTHING might settle this. Even if, miraculously, we get a deal and it passes and we Brexit, then millions of Remainers, having come so close to their prize, will feel cheated, and the debate will rumble on, in reverse, and we'd surely have another vote - back in! - as soon as the Tories lost power.

    Brexit is Forever. I wish it wasn't the case, but it is. it may subside in a decade or two, like Quebec Indy, but for the foreseeable, we are stuck with it.

    In that light, we have to do what's best for the country, as things stand, whatever happens in the future.

    So a new referendum might be the least worst option, if we can't get a passable deal.

    I agree we are stuck with it. The trouble is that a referendum seems likely to lead to a no-deal crash-out, as things stand, for the reasons @Gabs2 gives.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534

    Freggles said:

    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Do you mean 2016? In which case, no they didn't
    2015 is a valid comparison, prior to the formal campaign. An overwhelming majority of polls said Remain would win: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2015
    Polls tweak their methodology, especially if it is found that they have got things wrong in the past. So presumably the newer polls on Brexit are more robust than they were before the referendum.
    Unlikely, if that was the case polling errors in elections would have become unheard of rather than routine.

    The reality is that outside of campaigns these are little more than a snapshot. A snapshot now that looks little different to how it did in 2015.
  • isamisam Posts: 28,277
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Often said, but fake news.

    The majority of polls summarised on this well known political website on Wed 22nd June 2016 were showed Leave winning.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/the-online-polls-all-have-leave-ahead/

    What’s that got to do with the fact that the huge majority of polls in 2015 had Remain winning?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 1,121
    Gabs2 said:

    Noo said:

    UK will still owe money to EU even if it leaves with no deal, says budget commissioner
    Britain would still have to pay into the EU budget until the end of next year even if it leaves without a deal on 31 October, Gunther Oettinger, the EU budget commissioner, has said. Speaking at a news conference in Brussels he said the UK was fully signed up to the EU budget for 2020 - its final year of EU contributions.


    That popping sound you can hear is a thousand Brexists' internal carotid arteries rupturing simultaneously :lol:

    The House of Lords addressed this. There would be about 5% of the total that is legally obliged. The rest is not.
    Do we want a trade deal with them post No Deal or not? Because the EU isn’t going to give a monkeys about a legal opinion from the HL if so.
  • NooNoo Posts: 1,661
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Oldest Nobel laureate, at the age of 97:
    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/oct/09/nobel-prize-in-chemistry-awarded-for-work-on-lithium-ion-batteries

    Perhaps slightly too late to be career enhancing.

    Turns out his work was good enough for a nobel prize after all.
    And interesting that sulphur, which was involved in the original battery chemistry, could make a return over the next decade.
    Interesting point about the name of that element.
    "Sulphur" is only the British English spelling. In American English, it's "sulfur", and in Ireland it's "taoiseach".
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894
    I'm not sure I could take another referendum on this issue seriously, seeing as how many times 'parliamentary sovereignty' has been mentioned. Parliament delegated it out once and didn't like the answer so this time round they'll have to take responsibility themselves.
    It'd be a net 1 loss to the remain column, I expect there'd be more leave abstentions though - the turnout would be well down on the first vote.

    Which brings us round to the point made by @Gabs2 and expanded on by @Richard_Nabavi.

    We're stuck with this for a long time yet.
  • isamisam Posts: 28,277
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm not sure I could take another referendum on this issue seriously, seeing as how many times 'parliamentary sovereignty' has been mentioned. Parliament delegated it out once and didn't like the answer so this time round they'll have to take responsibility themselves.
    It'd be a net 1 loss to the remain column, I expect there'd be more leave abstentions though - the turnout would be well down on the first vote.

    Which brings us round to the point made by @Gabs2 and expanded on by @Richard_Nabavi.

    We're stuck with this for a long time yet.

    A referendum where we voted Remain followed by a majority at the next GE for a party committed to leaving the EU if they got in would be perfect
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534
    Noo said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Oldest Nobel laureate, at the age of 97:
    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/oct/09/nobel-prize-in-chemistry-awarded-for-work-on-lithium-ion-batteries

    Perhaps slightly too late to be career enhancing.

    Turns out his work was good enough for a nobel prize after all.
    And interesting that sulphur, which was involved in the original battery chemistry, could make a return over the next decade.
    Interesting point about the name of that element.
    "Sulphur" is only the British English spelling. In American English, it's "sulfur", and in Ireland it's "taoiseach".
    That's like how do you pronounce aluminium? Is it al-you-min-e-um or a-loo-min-um or tea-sock?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,330

    isam said:

    Freggles said:

    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Do you mean 2016? In which case, no they didn't
    Funnily enough I meant 2015, when they did.
    In the last week before the 2016 Referendum there were 13 polls

    10 polls showed Remain winning by between 1% to 8%

    3 showed leave winning by 1% or 2%
    And don't forget the one that showed Remain winning by 10% on the day of the referendum itself.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894
    edited October 9
    @isam point, which I'll make explicitly for the hard of thinking is that we're a way away from a referendum yet so comparisons with 2015 polls are more correct at this point in the cycle than 2016 polls.
    Refutations involving "Eve of poll" comparisons are obviously off since we're not near the end of a (God forbid) second referendum campaign.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492
    Byronic said:

    Perhaps we need to get beyond the idea that ANYTHING might settle this. Even if, miraculously, we get a deal and it passes and we Brexit, then millions of Remainers, having come so close to their prize, will feel cheated, and the debate will rumble on, in reverse, and we'd surely have another vote - back in! - as soon as the Tories lost power.

    Even more than that. Firstly, we're still arguing about the Withdrawal Agreement. Compared to the Future Trade Agreement this is the easy bit.

    Then, even if we eventually agree and implement an FTA (in 2025?) there will doubtless be lots of consequences from that which will upset lots of people. Too many concessions for some. Not enough access for others. There will be accusations that the EU aren't complying. We might be compelled to take enforcement action after a dispute was resolved against us.

    That's all without the people who will drone on about how much of an awful error the whole concept was to begin with and advocate Remain.

    Oh, and if immigration is still running at >100k a year then I'd expect a lot of people to have voted Leave to feel betrayed, even with free movement to the EU ended.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,862
    GIN1138 said:

    A 52:48 victory for Remain in a second referendum would of course put this to bed once and for all...oh wait


    Turnout would be well down on 2016 as well as leavers would stay at home.
    I don't think Leavers would stay at home, and I suspect Leave would win again. The question to ask is, what is meant to happen if Leave wins. Those so enamoured of telling us 'Leave never had a plan', can't be recommending a second referendum without a Leave plan, and this time those pushing the referendum, possibly even the EU itself, needs to be signed up to implementing a Leave plan. Otherwise it's yet another referendum put in place where the clever souls behind it don't actually want a referendum, they want the public to give their preferred option a rubber stamp. And there's every chance the public spoils the party once again.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 12,207
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Often said, but fake news.

    The majority of polls summarised on this well known political website on Wed 22nd June 2016 were showed Leave winning.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/the-online-polls-all-have-leave-ahead/

    What’s that got to do with the fact that the huge majority of polls in 2015 had Remain winning?
    A Consultant Dr cant tell the difference between a 5 and a 6 wow
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534
    DougSeal said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Noo said:

    UK will still owe money to EU even if it leaves with no deal, says budget commissioner
    Britain would still have to pay into the EU budget until the end of next year even if it leaves without a deal on 31 October, Gunther Oettinger, the EU budget commissioner, has said. Speaking at a news conference in Brussels he said the UK was fully signed up to the EU budget for 2020 - its final year of EU contributions.


    That popping sound you can hear is a thousand Brexists' internal carotid arteries rupturing simultaneously :lol:

    The House of Lords addressed this. There would be about 5% of the total that is legally obliged. The rest is not.
    Do we want a trade deal with them post No Deal or not? Because the EU isn’t going to give a monkeys about a legal opinion from the HL if so.
    Yes but they may give a monkeys about wanting that money.

    We'll give you this money if you give us a great deal is very different to we'll give you this money now pretty please can we have a deal as we're so desperate that we need it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,035
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Often said, but fake news.

    The majority of polls summarised on this well known political website on Wed 22nd June 2016 were showed Leave winning.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/the-online-polls-all-have-leave-ahead/

    What’s that got to do with the fact that the huge majority of polls in 2015 had Remain winning?
    I misread it 2016. It is often claimed that there was a polling shock with the referendum, but if so it was just people deluding themselves. The polls were mostly for Leave.

    I do agree that polling outside an official campaign, whether GE or referendum is a poor predictor of outcome, something @HYUFD seems incapable of understanding.

    It doesn't give an indication of which way the campaign would go though. It is very possible that it could be the same result, or it could be 60/40 for Remain.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,773
    edited October 9
    Pulpstar said:

    @isam point, which I'll make explicitly for the hard of thinking is that we're a way away from a referendum yet so comparisons with 2015 polls are more correct at this point in the cycle than 2016 polls.
    Refutations involving "Eve of poll" comparisons are obviously off since we're not near the end of a (God forbid) second referendum campaign.

    Should a second referendum happen, I'm sure OGH et al will share with us their massive Remain positions based on these poll leads.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    GIN1138 said:

    A 52:48 victory for Remain in a second referendum would of course put this to bed once and for all...oh wait


    Turnout would be well down on 2016 as well as leavers would stay at home.
    I don't think Leavers would stay at home, and I suspect Leave would win again. The question to ask is, what is meant to happen if Leave wins. Those so enamoured of telling us 'Leave never had a plan', can't be recommending a second referendum without a Leave plan, and this time those pushing the referendum, possibly even the EU itself, needs to be signed up to implementing a Leave plan. Otherwise it's yet another referendum put in place where the clever souls behind it don't actually want a referendum, they want the public to give their preferred option a rubber stamp. And there's every chance the public spoils the party once again.
    Depends on the question - if same as last time then would be a similar result.

    If it was Mays deal vs Remain then turnout would be halved with Remain winning 80-20.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Nah I think this is perfectly consistent with the polling, the 47% in favour of still leaving consistently add through to the sum of the Brexit + Tory scores. They're more lopsided than the Lib Dem + Labour which garner a similar total and also have Greens and national party votes to broadly compete with.

    Leave Labour + Tory remain exist but likely cancel in my opinion, the former being particularly prevalent in the North East & other Labour heartlands and latter in the home counties.

    Your final point is key though, isn't it?

    One big unknown in the election, when it comes, is whether Tory Remain holds up in its areas where they are vulnerable to the Lib Dems (or SNP or Labour) better than Labour Leave in areas where they are vulnerable to the Tories. You say they will balance out... well, maybe, but it's unproven assertion and is at the heart of the gamble.

    The other big unknown is whether, post-extension, many Leave people blame Johnson for failure to deliver enough to vote Farage (having said "do or die"), or whether they forgive him and trust it'll be different post-election. Very hard to know that until it happens (assuming, as seems likely now, it does).

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 12,207
    edited October 9
    GIN1138 said:



    isam said:

    Freggles said:

    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Do you mean 2016? In which case, no they didn't
    Funnily enough I meant 2015, when they did.
    In the last week before the 2016 Referendum there were 13 polls

    10 polls showed Remain winning by between 1% to 10%

    3 showed leave winning by 1% or 2%
    And don't forget the one that showed Remain winning by 10% on the day of the referendum itself.
    55/45 KABOOM THE THICKOS HAVE BEEN THRASHED!!
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,198
    There is a sizeable minority of voters who voted remain and think it was a mistake to leave but nevertheless believe the result should be respected. It is difficult to assess how they might vote in a second referendum or indeed if the right question has been asked from their point of view in opinion polling on the subject
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492

    Freggles said:

    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Do you mean 2016? In which case, no they didn't
    2015 is a valid comparison, prior to the formal campaign. An overwhelming majority of polls said Remain would win: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2015
    Polls tweak their methodology, especially if it is found that they have got things wrong in the past. So presumably the newer polls on Brexit are more robust than they were before the referendum.
    Polling accuracy is a moving target. Otherwise they would surely show a steady improvement in accuracy over time, rather than the uneven and erratic behaviour that is observed.
  • isamisam Posts: 28,277

    GIN1138 said:

    A 52:48 victory for Remain in a second referendum would of course put this to bed once and for all...oh wait


    Turnout would be well down on 2016 as well as leavers would stay at home.
    I don't think Leavers would stay at home, and I suspect Leave would win again. The question to ask is, what is meant to happen if Leave wins. Those so enamoured of telling us 'Leave never had a plan', can't be recommending a second referendum without a Leave plan, and this time those pushing the referendum, possibly even the EU itself, needs to be signed up to implementing a Leave plan. Otherwise it's yet another referendum put in place where the clever souls behind it don't actually want a referendum, they want the public to give their preferred option a rubber stamp. And there's every chance the public spoils the party once again.
    They want a choice between Remain, and an option that the people who won the last referendum for Leave don’t support.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,894

    Pulpstar said:

    Nah I think this is perfectly consistent with the polling, the 47% in favour of still leaving consistently add through to the sum of the Brexit + Tory scores. They're more lopsided than the Lib Dem + Labour which garner a similar total and also have Greens and national party votes to broadly compete with.

    Leave Labour + Tory remain exist but likely cancel in my opinion, the former being particularly prevalent in the North East & other Labour heartlands and latter in the home counties.

    Your final point is key though, isn't it?

    One big unknown in the election, when it comes, is whether Tory Remain holds up in its areas where they are vulnerable to the Lib Dems (or SNP or Labour) better than Labour Leave in areas where they are vulnerable to the Tories. You say they will balance out... well, maybe, but it's unproven assertion and is at the heart of the gamble.

    The other big unknown is whether, post-extension, many Leave people blame Johnson for failure to deliver enough to vote Farage (having said "do or die"), or whether they forgive him and trust it'll be different post-election. Very hard to know that until it happens (assuming, as seems likely now, it does).

    Neither I nor anyone else knows how the seats will truly fall out when we have the inevitable Election. In addition we'll have some "events" coming up near the end of the month so early November polling could well be more constructive.

    My only bet so far is a small one on Labour majority which is currently +EV.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 815

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Often said, but fake news.

    The majority of polls summarised on this well known political website on Wed 22nd June 2016 were showed Leave winning.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/the-online-polls-all-have-leave-ahead/

    What’s that got to do with the fact that the huge majority of polls in 2015 had Remain winning?
    A Consultant Dr cant tell the difference between a 5 and a 6 wow
    Entirely forgivable if it's the good doctor's own handwriting.
  • isamisam Posts: 28,277
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Often said, but fake news.

    The majority of polls summarised on this well known political website on Wed 22nd June 2016 were showed Leave winning.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/the-online-polls-all-have-leave-ahead/

    What’s that got to do with the fact that the huge majority of polls in 2015 had Remain winning?
    I misread it 2016. It is often claimed that there was a polling shock with the referendum, but if so it was just people deluding themselves. The polls were mostly for Leave.

    I do agree that polling outside an official campaign, whether GE or referendum is a poor predictor of outcome, something @HYUFD seems incapable of understanding.

    It doesn't give an indication of which way the campaign would go though. It is very possible that it could be the same result, or it could be 60/40 for Remain.
    It was a shock because, after Jo Cox was murdered, the betting went from its lowest ever price of 2.4ish (I know as I backed Leave at that price the morning she was attacked), to something like 5/1 and obviously bigger on the day. The polls also shifted to remain after that day too.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 1,121

    DougSeal said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Noo said:

    UK will still owe money to EU even if it leaves with no deal, says budget commissioner
    Britain would still have to pay into the EU budget until the end of next year even if it leaves without a deal on 31 October, Gunther Oettinger, the EU budget commissioner, has said. Speaking at a news conference in Brussels he said the UK was fully signed up to the EU budget for 2020 - its final year of EU contributions.


    That popping sound you can hear is a thousand Brexists' internal carotid arteries rupturing simultaneously :lol:

    The House of Lords addressed this. There would be about 5% of the total that is legally obliged. The rest is not.
    Do we want a trade deal with them post No Deal or not? Because the EU isn’t going to give a monkeys about a legal opinion from the HL if so.
    Yes but they may give a monkeys about wanting that money.

    We'll give you this money if you give us a great deal is very different to we'll give you this money now pretty please can we have a deal as we're so desperate that we need it.
    Unlikely. They think they are owed it without conditions. Given the rhetoric from our side and the arrogant attitude to Ireland they are unlikely to give us any deal, good bad or indifferent, unless we pay what they perceive that we owe.

    Neither of us can say with certainty but I can confidently say that every leaver prediction of EU attitudes I can recall in the last 3 years has proved wrong, from BMW and Mercedes riding to the rescue onwards.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,035

    GIN1138 said:



    isam said:

    Freggles said:

    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Do you mean 2016? In which case, no they didn't
    Funnily enough I meant 2015, when they did.
    In the last week before the 2016 Referendum there were 13 polls

    10 polls showed Remain winning by between 1% to 10%

    3 showed leave winning by 1% or 2%
    And don't forget the one that showed Remain winning by 10% on the day of the referendum itself.
    55/45 KABOOM THE THICKOS HAVE BEEN THRASHED!!
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/the-online-polls-all-have-leave-ahead/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    edited October 9
    The latest Comres poll has clear support for No Deal over further extension if the EU refuse the Boris Deal plan

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307
    Polls are just a snapshot and unreliable in their absolutes. The trend, however, is probably reliable enough. There seems to have been clear movement over time from Leave to Remain.

    The country remains deeply divided and will be for decades.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,056
    Foxy said:

    GIN1138 said:



    isam said:

    Freggles said:

    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Do you mean 2016? In which case, no they didn't
    Funnily enough I meant 2015, when they did.
    In the last week before the 2016 Referendum there were 13 polls

    10 polls showed Remain winning by between 1% to 10%

    3 showed leave winning by 1% or 2%
    And don't forget the one that showed Remain winning by 10% on the day of the referendum itself.
    55/45 KABOOM THE THICKOS HAVE BEEN THRASHED!!
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/the-online-polls-all-have-leave-ahead/
    The Remain poll is soft I think.

    Wait until "Tell Them Again" hits the airwaves/social media day in day out.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 39,126
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Noo said:

    UK will still owe money to EU even if it leaves with no deal, says budget commissioner
    Britain would still have to pay into the EU budget until the end of next year even if it leaves without a deal on 31 October, Gunther Oettinger, the EU budget commissioner, has said. Speaking at a news conference in Brussels he said the UK was fully signed up to the EU budget for 2020 - its final year of EU contributions.


    That popping sound you can hear is a thousand Brexists' internal carotid arteries rupturing simultaneously :lol:

    The House of Lords addressed this. There would be about 5% of the total that is legally obliged. The rest is not.
    Do we want a trade deal with them post No Deal or not? Because the EU isn’t going to give a monkeys about a legal opinion from the HL if so.
    Yes but they may give a monkeys about wanting that money.

    We'll give you this money if you give us a great deal is very different to we'll give you this money now pretty please can we have a deal as we're so desperate that we need it.
    Unlikely. They think they are owed it without conditions. Given the rhetoric from our side and the arrogant attitude to Ireland they are unlikely to give us any deal, good bad or indifferent, unless we pay what they perceive that we owe.

    Neither of us can say with certainty but I can confidently say that every leaver prediction of EU attitudes I can recall in the last 3 years has proved wrong, from BMW and Mercedes riding to the rescue onwards.
    Some of it, such as pensions contributions and existing commitments, but not all of it.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 3,097
    GIN1138 said:

    A 52:48 victory for Remain in a second referendum would of course put this to bed once and for all...oh wait


    Turnout would be well down on 2016 as well as leavers would stay at home.
    Tough shit if they did
  • isamisam Posts: 28,277
    edited October 9

    Polls are just a snapshot and unreliable in their absolutes. The trend, however, is probably reliable enough. There seems to have been clear movement over time from Leave to Remain.

    The country remains deeply divided and will be for decades.

    There’s a trend towards Remain in the opinion polls, right enough. The problem is opinion polls outside of official campaigns are a complete waste of time
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 12,207
    Tweets posted since midnight 6th October, confirming left-wing Gov't has won a second term in the Portuguese General Election:

    @BBCBreaking (40.8m followers): NONE
    @BBCWorld (25.9m followers): NONE
    @BBCNews (10.2m followers): NONE

    The BBC has approximately 2000 'journalists'
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 252
    HYUFD said:

    The latest Comres poll has clear support for No Deal over further extension if the EU refuse the Boris Deal plan

    Providing by 'clear support' we are to understand 'MOE differences between a panel split down the middle', then yes. Sounds about right.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,814
    DougSeal said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Noo said:

    UK will still owe money to EU even if it leaves with no deal, says budget commissioner
    Britain would still have to pay into the EU budget until the end of next year even if it leaves without a deal on 31 October, Gunther Oettinger, the EU budget commissioner, has said. Speaking at a news conference in Brussels he said the UK was fully signed up to the EU budget for 2020 - its final year of EU contributions.


    That popping sound you can hear is a thousand Brexists' internal carotid arteries rupturing simultaneously :lol:

    The House of Lords addressed this. There would be about 5% of the total that is legally obliged. The rest is not.
    Do we want a trade deal with them post No Deal or not? Because the EU isn’t going to give a monkeys about a legal opinion from the HL if so.
    The EU have a choice here. If you erect the same trade barriers between 2 economies of the same level of development then the disruption to trade would be equivalent, so the reduction in trade the same to each. The longer the EU take to reduce those barriers the more they will lose of their goods trade surplus, especially if the UK is signing trade deals with other countries.
    Will the EU be sensible, I doubt it, so we will pivot to the rest of the world and the EU will also lose our political support as well.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    Tweets posted since midnight 6th October, confirming left-wing Gov't has won a second term in the Portuguese General Election:

    @BBCBreaking (40.8m followers): NONE
    @BBCWorld (25.9m followers): NONE
    @BBCNews (10.2m followers): NONE

    The BBC has approximately 2000 'journalists'

    Do they have a tea sock or a Prime minister?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 1,121
    RobD said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Noo said:

    UK will still owe money to EU even if it leaves with no deal, says budget commissioner
    Britain would still have to pay into the EU budget until the end of next year even if it leaves without a deal on 31 October, Gunther Oettinger, the EU budget commissioner, has said. Speaking at a news conference in Brussels he said the UK was fully signed up to the EU budget for 2020 - its final year of EU contributions.


    That popping sound you can hear is a thousand Brexists' internal carotid arteries rupturing simultaneously :lol:

    The House of Lords addressed this. There would be about 5% of the total that is legally obliged. The rest is not.
    Do we want a trade deal with them post No Deal or not? Because the EU isn’t going to give a monkeys about a legal opinion from the HL if so.
    Yes but they may give a monkeys about wanting that money.

    We'll give you this money if you give us a great deal is very different to we'll give you this money now pretty please can we have a deal as we're so desperate that we need it.
    Unlikely. They think they are owed it without conditions. Given the rhetoric from our side and the arrogant attitude to Ireland they are unlikely to give us any deal, good bad or indifferent, unless we pay what they perceive that we owe.

    Neither of us can say with certainty but I can confidently say that every leaver prediction of EU attitudes I can recall in the last 3 years has proved wrong, from BMW and Mercedes riding to the rescue onwards.
    Some of it, such as pensions contributions and existing commitments, but not all of it.
    As I say, they won’t give us what we want until we give them what they think we owe. Sure, we can arguewith them-but ultimately it comes down to who needs the deal more. I’d argue it’s us but I accept that, despite so much evidence to the contrary, some argue it’s them.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,468

    Freggles said:

    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Do you mean 2016? In which case, no they didn't
    2015 is a valid comparison, prior to the formal campaign. An overwhelming majority of polls said Remain would win: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2015
    Polls tweak their methodology, especially if it is found that they have got things wrong in the past. So presumably the newer polls on Brexit are more robust than they were before the referendum.
    Ptolemaic astronomers did similar tweaking; they called it "saving the phenomena". That's why Ptolemaic astronomy just got righter and righter as the years went by.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534
    Farewell then. Thanks for serving the party, we'll select some new candidates.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 12,207
    Foxy said:

    GIN1138 said:



    isam said:

    Freggles said:

    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Do you mean 2016? In which case, no they didn't
    Funnily enough I meant 2015, when they did.
    In the last week before the 2016 Referendum there were 13 polls

    10 polls showed Remain winning by between 1% to 10%

    3 showed leave winning by 1% or 2%
    And don't forget the one that showed Remain winning by 10% on the day of the referendum itself.
    55/45 KABOOM THE THICKOS HAVE BEEN THRASHED!!
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/the-online-polls-all-have-leave-ahead/
    KA FOOKIN BOOM

    22 June 55% 45% N/A 10% 4,700 Populus Online
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 3,097

    Byronic said:

    Perhaps we need to get beyond the idea that ANYTHING might settle this. Even if, miraculously, we get a deal and it passes and we Brexit, then millions of Remainers, having come so close to their prize, will feel cheated, and the debate will rumble on, in reverse, and we'd surely have another vote - back in! - as soon as the Tories lost power.

    Even more than that. Firstly, we're still arguing about the Withdrawal Agreement. Compared to the Future Trade Agreement this is the easy bit.

    Then, even if we eventually agree and implement an FTA (in 2025?) there will doubtless be lots of consequences from that which will upset lots of people. Too many concessions for some. Not enough access for others. There will be accusations that the EU aren't complying. We might be compelled to take enforcement action after a dispute was resolved against us.

    That's all without the people who will drone on about how much of an awful error the whole concept was to begin with and advocate Remain.

    Oh, and if immigration is still running at >100k a year then I'd expect a lot of people to have voted Leave to feel betrayed, even with free movement to the EU ended.
    Especially when that sort of immigration is even less preferred than the awful EU ones.i wonder how many points you’ll need to get in to work in a care home or agriculture.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492
    isam said:

    Polls are just a snapshot and unreliable in their absolutes. The trend, however, is probably reliable enough. There seems to have been clear movement over time from Leave to Remain.

    The country remains deeply divided and will be for decades.

    There’s a trend towards Remain in the opinion polls, right enough. The problem is opinion polls outside of official campaigns are a complete waste of time
    If the trend were much larger, and say now had Remain ahead by 4:1, then I don't think it would be a waste of time. All the nuances of sampling errors in the world wouldn't be able to explain away such a decisive shift in public opinion.

    That we haven't seen such a shift, in either direction, is noteworthy.

    It's not like those sorts of shifts can't happen - just look at the changes in the opinion polling on Trump impeachment.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 3,702
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Freggles said:

    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Do you mean 2016? In which case, no they didn't
    2015 is a valid comparison, prior to the formal campaign. An overwhelming majority of polls said Remain would win: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2015
    Polls tweak their methodology, especially if it is found that they have got things wrong in the past. So presumably the newer polls on Brexit are more robust than they were before the referendum.
    Ptolemaic astronomers did similar tweaking; they called it "saving the phenomena". That's why Ptolemaic astronomy just got righter and righter as the years went by.
    Physics, universes, light and matter do not (often) change behaviour in random and unpredictable ways, humans do, can and will amend behaviour.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,035

    Foxy said:

    GIN1138 said:



    isam said:

    Freggles said:

    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Do you mean 2016? In which case, no they didn't
    Funnily enough I meant 2015, when they did.
    In the last week before the 2016 Referendum there were 13 polls

    10 polls showed Remain winning by between 1% to 10%

    3 showed leave winning by 1% or 2%
    And don't forget the one that showed Remain winning by 10% on the day of the referendum itself.
    55/45 KABOOM THE THICKOS HAVE BEEN THRASHED!!
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/the-online-polls-all-have-leave-ahead/
    The Remain poll is soft I think.

    Wait until "Tell Them Again" hits the airwaves/social media day in day out.
    I think the opposite. "Tell them Again" also works for Remain voters, who were 48.1% of the electorate last time.

    The "Bored of Brexit vote" will shift to Remain.

    The "Shaft the government vote" will also shift Remain.

    I also think there will be big shifts in turnout in favour of Remain.

    But until we have that further referendum, who knows? Let's have one and find out...

  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 588

    Tweets posted since midnight 6th October, confirming left-wing Gov't has won a second term in the Portuguese General Election:

    @BBCBreaking (40.8m followers): NONE
    @BBCWorld (25.9m followers): NONE
    @BBCNews (10.2m followers): NONE

    The BBC has approximately 2000 'journalists'

    Don't we have enough bad news already?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    He will run on a No Deal manifesto if the EU refuse to remove the backstop from any Deal, MPs who refuse to back that will just be deselected and replaced with candidates who will
  • isamisam Posts: 28,277
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    GIN1138 said:



    isam said:

    Freggles said:

    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Do you mean 2016? In which case, no they didn't
    Funnily enough I meant 2015, when they did.
    In the last week before the 2016 Referendum there were 13 polls

    10 polls showed Remain winning by between 1% to 10%

    3 showed leave winning by 1% or 2%
    And don't forget the one that showed Remain winning by 10% on the day of the referendum itself.
    55/45 KABOOM THE THICKOS HAVE BEEN THRASHED!!
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/the-online-polls-all-have-leave-ahead/
    The Remain poll is soft I think.

    Wait until "Tell Them Again" hits the airwaves/social media day in day out.
    I think the opposite. "Tell them Again" also works for Remain voters, who were 48.1% of the electorate last time.

    The "Bored of Brexit vote" will shift to Remain.

    The "Shaft the government vote" will also shift Remain.

    I also think there will be big shifts in turnout in favour of Remain.

    But until we have that further referendum, who knows? Let's have one and find out...

    Let’s not, and implement the result of the last one as promised.
  • New market: How few MPs will the Tories have before the next dissolution of Parliament for a GE?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,048

    Farewell then. Thanks for serving the party, we'll select some new candidates.
    You represent the narrow minded view of the entryists that have destroyed a once great political party that prided itself in a broad base.

    Conservative Party 1834 - 2019 RIP. Murdered by a cabal of fascists led by Boris Johnson
  • RobDRobD Posts: 39,126
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    GIN1138 said:



    isam said:

    Freggles said:

    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Do you mean 2016? In which case, no they didn't
    Funnily enough I meant 2015, when they did.
    In the last week before the 2016 Referendum there were 13 polls

    10 polls showed Remain winning by between 1% to 10%

    3 showed leave winning by 1% or 2%
    And don't forget the one that showed Remain winning by 10% on the day of the referendum itself.
    55/45 KABOOM THE THICKOS HAVE BEEN THRASHED!!
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/the-online-polls-all-have-leave-ahead/
    The Remain poll is soft I think.

    Wait until "Tell Them Again" hits the airwaves/social media day in day out.
    I think the opposite. "Tell them Again" also works for Remain voters, who were 48.1% of the electorate last time.

    The "Bored of Brexit vote" will shift to Remain.

    The "Shaft the government vote" will also shift Remain.

    I also think there will be big shifts in turnout in favour of Remain.

    But until we have that further referendum, who knows? Let's have one and find out...

    I prefer "no means no" :p
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 1,121

    DougSeal said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Noo said:

    UK will still owe money to EU even if it leaves with no deal, says budget commissioner
    Britain would still have to pay into the EU budget until the end of next year even if it leaves without a deal on 31 October, Gunther Oettinger, the EU budget commissioner, has said. Speaking at a news conference in Brussels he said the UK was fully signed up to the EU budget for 2020 - its final year of EU contributions.


    That popping sound you can hear is a thousand Brexists' internal carotid arteries rupturing simultaneously :lol:

    The House of Lords addressed this. There would be about 5% of the total that is legally obliged. The rest is not.
    Do we want a trade deal with them post No Deal or not? Because the EU isn’t going to give a monkeys about a legal opinion from the HL if so.
    The EU have a choice here. If you erect the same trade barriers between 2 economies of the same level of development then the disruption to trade would be equivalent, so the reduction in trade the same to each. The longer the EU take to reduce those barriers the more they will lose of their goods trade surplus, especially if the UK is signing trade deals with other countries.
    Will the EU be sensible, I doubt it, so we will pivot to the rest of the world and the EU will also lose our political support as well.
    “Lose our political support”? They can read you know. We’ve withdrawn it already. Cummings (and his blonde catemite passing as our PM) has pissed away all our political capital. That’s baked in. We’ve set ourselves up as an enemy already with our WW2 rhetoric and threats to withdraw security cooperation. It’s not shifted them at all.

    Your trade surplus point has been made (in various permutations). on numerous occasions, from BMW banging on Merkel’s door, onwards and has not come through for us yet. Not worked.

    As for “pivot to the rest of the world”, we cannot physically shift ourselves. Geography means that, even at the height of the Empire, even during the Continental System, we relied to a great degree on trade with Europe. Not as much as, say, Germany, but they are not leaving the EU.

    It’s the same old reheated tripe.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 823
    Does Boris need a No Deal manifesto? He can just have a No Backstop or No Deal manifesto. Which obviously IS a No Deal manifesto, but it gives the One Nation types plausible deniability.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888
    edited October 9

    Farewell then. Thanks for serving the party, we'll select some new candidates.
    You represent the narrow minded view of the entryists that have destroyed a once great political party that prided itself in a broad base.

    Conservative Party 1834 - 2019 RIP. Murdered by a cabal of fascists led by Boris Johnson
    Nope it is you who would murder the Conservative Party by refusing to deliver Brexit and thus ensuring it collapses behind the Brexit Party as it did in the European Parliament elections and in the polls after May extended
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,534

    Farewell then. Thanks for serving the party, we'll select some new candidates.
    You represent the narrow minded view of the entryists that have destroyed a once great political party that prided itself in a broad base.

    Conservative Party 1834 - 2019 RIP. Murdered by a cabal of fascists led by Boris Johnson
    I'm not an entryist, I've long been a supporter of the party and voted for Cameron in 2005.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,200
    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    The latest Comres poll has clear support for No Deal over further extension if the EU refuse the Boris Deal plan

    Providing by 'clear support' we are to understand 'MOE differences between a panel split down the middle', then yes. Sounds about right.
    In a poll sponsored (I believe ?) by the Telegraph, so the form of question was perhaps not entirely neutral.

    A BMG research poll for the Independent, conducted a couple of days earlier, had (unsurprisingly) rather different numbers.
  • Foxy said:

    GIN1138 said:



    isam said:

    Freggles said:

    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Do you mean 2016? In which case, no they didn't
    Funnily enough I meant 2015, when they did.
    In the last week before the 2016 Referendum there were 13 polls

    10 polls showed Remain winning by between 1% to 10%

    3 showed leave winning by 1% or 2%
    And don't forget the one that showed Remain winning by 10% on the day of the referendum itself.
    55/45 KABOOM THE THICKOS HAVE BEEN THRASHED!!
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/the-online-polls-all-have-leave-ahead/
    The Remain poll is soft I think.

    Wait until "Tell Them Again" hits the airwaves/social media day in day out.
    Depends on what the referendum choice is.

    If the government loses control of the process, it could well be May's deal plus a bit of Labour-friendly softening vs. Remain.

    Can the Vote Leave team go bullishly into bat for that? Can the Brexit Party?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 62,888

    Tweets posted since midnight 6th October, confirming left-wing Gov't has won a second term in the Portuguese General Election:

    @BBCBreaking (40.8m followers): NONE
    @BBCWorld (25.9m followers): NONE
    @BBCNews (10.2m followers): NONE

    The BBC has approximately 2000 'journalists'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49955686
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,048
    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    The latest Comres poll has clear support for No Deal over further extension if the EU refuse the Boris Deal plan

    Providing by 'clear support' we are to understand 'MOE differences between a panel split down the middle', then yes. Sounds about right.
    Small leads are always interpreted by the extremists and fanboys that support Bozo as being "clear support". They believe in the absolute tyranny of the tiny majority.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,035
    philiph said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Freggles said:

    isam said:

    In 2015 a huge majority of opinion polls had Remain winning, why is this ‘scoop’ any different?

    Do you mean 2016? In which case, no they didn't
    2015 is a valid comparison, prior to the formal campaign. An overwhelming majority of polls said Remain would win: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2015
    Polls tweak their methodology, especially if it is found that they have got things wrong in the past. So presumably the newer polls on Brexit are more robust than they were before the referendum.
    Ptolemaic astronomers did similar tweaking; they called it "saving the phenomena". That's why Ptolemaic astronomy just got righter and righter as the years went by.
    Physics, universes, light and matter do not (often) change behaviour in random and unpredictable ways, humans do, can and will amend behaviour.
    A good article on polling in the Guardian a week back.



  • isamisam Posts: 28,277

    isam said:

    Polls are just a snapshot and unreliable in their absolutes. The trend, however, is probably reliable enough. There seems to have been clear movement over time from Leave to Remain.

    The country remains deeply divided and will be for decades.

    There’s a trend towards Remain in the opinion polls, right enough. The problem is opinion polls outside of official campaigns are a complete waste of time
    If the trend were much larger, and say now had Remain ahead by 4:1, then I don't think it would be a waste of time. All the nuances of sampling errors in the world wouldn't be able to explain away such a decisive shift in public opinion.

    That we haven't seen such a shift, in either direction, is noteworthy.

    It's not like those sorts of shifts can't happen - just look at the changes in the opinion polling on Trump impeachment.
    I say the polls are stuffed with political obsessives who try to predict the result rather than give their opinion.
  • isamisam Posts: 28,277
    edited October 9

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    The latest Comres poll has clear support for No Deal over further extension if the EU refuse the Boris Deal plan

    Providing by 'clear support' we are to understand 'MOE differences between a panel split down the middle', then yes. Sounds about right.
    Small leads are always interpreted by the extremists and fanboys that support Bozo as being "clear support". They believe in the absolute tyranny of the tiny majority.
    Such as the thread header?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492

    New market: How few MPs will the Tories have before the next dissolution of Parliament for a GE?
    They are currently 43 ahead of Labour. 288 - 245.

    Suppose the 50 of the 60-odd One Nation caucus are shoved out, and Labour become the largest party. We might see that Vote of No Confidence.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 39,126
    Nigelb said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    The latest Comres poll has clear support for No Deal over further extension if the EU refuse the Boris Deal plan

    Providing by 'clear support' we are to understand 'MOE differences between a panel split down the middle', then yes. Sounds about right.
    In a poll sponsored (I believe ?) by the Telegraph, so the form of question was perhaps not entirely neutral.

    A BMG research poll for the Independent, conducted a couple of days earlier, had (unsurprisingly) rather different numbers.
    The question is in the tweet, it doesn't look particularly biased.
  • eekeek Posts: 5,791
    Gabs2 said:

    Does Boris need a No Deal manifesto? He can just have a No Backstop or No Deal manifesto. Which obviously IS a No Deal manifesto, but it gives the One Nation types plausible deniability.
    Only if they are terminally thick and no-one asks the obvious question - of how do you have a deal without a backstop when the EU say that it isn't possible?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,330
    edited October 9
    I would have thought he'll be running on his deal proposal but with No Deal as his back stop.

    Effectively it will be a No Deal manifesto because the EU have said his proposal is a non-starter but it will be close enough to May's manifesto (no deal is better than a bad deal )for the likes of Green to be able stay in the tent.
This discussion has been closed.