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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Going long. Why a 2019 election is a lot less likely than gamb

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited October 10 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Going long. Why a 2019 election is a lot less likely than gamblers seem to think

Let us embark on a voyage of discovery and fantasy. Imagine, if you will, that you are Jeremy Corbyn. You are to retreat to your allotment for the day to clear your mind of the ephemeral nonsense of Westminster and to plan strategically. As you cycle past a couple of your favourite manhole covers, you start to turn your mind to the burning question: on what basis do you want to conduct the next election?

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,026
    Against that, the Sun "has learned" Corbyn will support a Tuesday, 26/11 election.
    Jeremy Corbyn will agree to back a new bid by Boris to dissolve Parliament and go to the polls if he tables a vote for it on October 21, The Sun has learned.

    Although it does also mention this is contingent on the Benn Act.
    In a speech in Northampton he [Corbyn] will lay down a fresh gauntlet to the PM by telling him: “It’s simple: obey the law, take No Deal off the table and then let’s have the election.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10102153/labour-grant-boris-election-nov-26/

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418

    Against that, the Sun "has learned" Corbyn will support a Tuesday, 26/11 election.
    Jeremy Corbyn will agree to back a new bid by Boris to dissolve Parliament and go to the polls if he tables a vote for it on October 21, The Sun has learned.

    Although it does also mention this is contingent on the Benn Act.
    In a speech in Northampton he [Corbyn] will lay down a fresh gauntlet to the PM by telling him: “It’s simple: obey the law, take No Deal off the table and then let’s have the election.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10102153/labour-grant-boris-election-nov-26/

    Do all voters have to agree to take No Deal off the table too, before Corbyn will agree to that election? In writing, on his desk by 5 pm October 20th.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 27,418
    edited October 10
    England v France called off because of typhoon. Also New Zealand v Italy. It is still hoped that Sunday's games will go ahead.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,026

    Against that, the Sun "has learned" Corbyn will support a Tuesday, 26/11 election.
    Jeremy Corbyn will agree to back a new bid by Boris to dissolve Parliament and go to the polls if he tables a vote for it on October 21, The Sun has learned.

    Although it does also mention this is contingent on the Benn Act.
    In a speech in Northampton he [Corbyn] will lay down a fresh gauntlet to the PM by telling him: “It’s simple: obey the law, take No Deal off the table and then let’s have the election.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10102153/labour-grant-boris-election-nov-26/

    Do all voters have to agree to take No Deal off the table too, before Corbyn will agree to that election? In writing, on his desk by 5 pm October 20th.....
    It is Number 10, not the voters, who have been spinning that Boris is looking for loopholes.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 1,955
    An interesting polling question would be to ask voters whether they think it would be a good idea to be consulted again before Brexit happens in either a referendum or a general election (without specifying which one they prefer).
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 540
    Great analysis, I generally agree with the thrust of it and see the idea in Boris sounding somehat shrill and repetitive as time goes on (there is a limit to how much he can blame Parliament etc). For me, JC is approaching his 71st birthday and I wonder whether he feels the need to actually govern...whilst 71 isnt ancient - Malaysia's PM is 93 surely he feels some sort of desireto get on the campaign bus.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,938

    England v France called off because of typhoon. Also New Zealand v Italy. It is still hoped that Sunday's games will go ahead.

    Suzuka have also cancelled the F1 support race programme scheduled over the weekend, leaving just the F1 cars which they hope they can fit in around the weather on Saturday and Sunday.

    Won’t be the first time the Japanese GP got messed around by weather, who schedules these events during a known storm season - the same people who thought it was okay to sage long-distance athletics races in Doha last week?
  • Great analysis. I topped up on 2020 or later after having read the Sun's less than subtle spin on the preleased highlights of today's Corbyn speech.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,938
    On topic, I agree with Alastair’s conclusions, with one constraint: the suggestion in the Benn Act letter is for an extension until 31st January.

    If that is the extension given, then the election is probably going to have to be on 5th December, or possibly 13th. No-one is going to want to campaign over Christmas (or be seen supporting the idea), and an early January dissolution leads to a mid-February election, most likely 20th if we stick to a 25 day campaign and a Thursday election.

    My betting plan here is to base decisions on the extension date proposal, any date other than 31st Jan leads to a 2020 election. (But what do I know, I didn’t see Boris as next PM until it was way too late to still be laying the favourite).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,200
    Sandpit said:

    England v France called off because of typhoon. Also New Zealand v Italy. It is still hoped that Sunday's games will go ahead.

    Suzuka have also cancelled the F1 support race programme scheduled over the weekend, leaving just the F1 cars which they hope they can fit in around the weather on Saturday and Sunday.

    Won’t be the first time the Japanese GP got messed around by weather, who schedules these events during a known storm season - the same people who thought it was okay to sage long-distance athletics races in Doha last week?
    Hardly a new problem, either.
    I have memories of listening on the radio overnight as Hunt won his title in torrential rain, Lauda having sensibly decided not to risk his life in the conditions.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,938
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    England v France called off because of typhoon. Also New Zealand v Italy. It is still hoped that Sunday's games will go ahead.

    Suzuka have also cancelled the F1 support race programme scheduled over the weekend, leaving just the F1 cars which they hope they can fit in around the weather on Saturday and Sunday.

    Won’t be the first time the Japanese GP got messed around by weather, who schedules these events during a known storm season - the same people who thought it was okay to sage long-distance athletics races in Doha last week?
    Hardly a new problem, either.
    I have memories of listening on the radio overnight as Hunt won his title in torrential rain, Lauda having sensibly decided not to risk his life in the conditions.
    Indeed so - that was 24th October 1976, scheduling sports events in rainy seasons has been happening for a while!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,701
    I think Alastair seriously underestimates Jeremy Corbyn’s sheer stupidity. When push comes to shove - and much to the despair of dozens of Labour MPs who will lose their seats - he will want an election ASAP. Remember, this is the man who wanted to trigger A50 the day after the referendum and who had to be persuaded by his own side not to agree to an election before the Benn Act became law.

    Corbyn lives in a bubble in which he is infallible and greeted everywhere he goes by big crowds of adoring supporters. He does not inhabit the real world. He genuinely thinks he will win the election, so why delay it?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,468
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    England v France called off because of typhoon. Also New Zealand v Italy. It is still hoped that Sunday's games will go ahead.

    Suzuka have also cancelled the F1 support race programme scheduled over the weekend, leaving just the F1 cars which they hope they can fit in around the weather on Saturday and Sunday.

    Won’t be the first time the Japanese GP got messed around by weather, who schedules these events during a known storm season - the same people who thought it was okay to sage long-distance athletics races in Doha last week?
    Hardly a new problem, either.
    I have memories of listening on the radio overnight as Hunt won his title in torrential rain, Lauda having sensibly decided not to risk his life in the conditions.
    Indeed so - that was 24th October 1976, scheduling sports events in rainy seasons has been happening for a while!
    You want to be careful with that line of argument of you like the fact that England gets to host cricket matches
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,229
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    England v France called off because of typhoon. Also New Zealand v Italy. It is still hoped that Sunday's games will go ahead.

    Suzuka have also cancelled the F1 support race programme scheduled over the weekend, leaving just the F1 cars which they hope they can fit in around the weather on Saturday and Sunday.

    Won’t be the first time the Japanese GP got messed around by weather, who schedules these events during a known storm season - the same people who thought it was okay to sage long-distance athletics races in Doha last week?
    Hardly a new problem, either.
    I have memories of listening on the radio overnight as Hunt won his title in torrential rain, Lauda having sensibly decided not to risk his life in the conditions.
    Indeed so - that was 24th October 1976, scheduling sports events in rainy seasons has been happening for a while!
    Could well be that there are serious difficulties for broadcasters if the typhoon strikes. Temporary buildings housing critical equipment, I understand. Built to cope with severe weather, but this will be exceptionally severe.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,481
    Great article. I agree: an election this year is unlikely.

    I’ve greened up my position for now, which might well be silly but I didn’t want to be greedy and risk losing my stake, but I’m comfortable with the numbers I’ve got covered.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,938

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    England v France called off because of typhoon. Also New Zealand v Italy. It is still hoped that Sunday's games will go ahead.

    Suzuka have also cancelled the F1 support race programme scheduled over the weekend, leaving just the F1 cars which they hope they can fit in around the weather on Saturday and Sunday.

    Won’t be the first time the Japanese GP got messed around by weather, who schedules these events during a known storm season - the same people who thought it was okay to sage long-distance athletics races in Doha last week?
    Hardly a new problem, either.
    I have memories of listening on the radio overnight as Hunt won his title in torrential rain, Lauda having sensibly decided not to risk his life in the conditions.
    Indeed so - that was 24th October 1976, scheduling sports events in rainy seasons has been happening for a while!
    Could well be that there are serious difficulties for broadcasters if the typhoon strikes. Temporary buildings housing critical equipment, I understand. Built to cope with severe weather, but this will be exceptionally severe.
    Good point, wouldn’t want to be the cameraman a couple of hundred feet in the air on the end of a crane, nor the guy in the broadcast truck at the other end of the massive lightning rod camera cable.

    What usually does for F1 is if the medical helicopter is unable to fly, or if the local hospital is unable to accept it because of weather conditions or a local emergency. No helicopter, no cars on track - thanks to Prof Watkins and Bernie for that rule, when they decided they didn’t like going to so many young men’s funerals.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 13,120

    Against that, the Sun "has learned" Corbyn will support a Tuesday, 26/11 election.
    Jeremy Corbyn will agree to back a new bid by Boris to dissolve Parliament and go to the polls if he tables a vote for it on October 21, The Sun has learned.

    Although it does also mention this is contingent on the Benn Act.
    In a speech in Northampton he [Corbyn] will lay down a fresh gauntlet to the PM by telling him: “It’s simple: obey the law, take No Deal off the table and then let’s have the election.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10102153/labour-grant-boris-election-nov-26/

    It's never wise to bet on Corbyn not meaning what he says (whatever you think of it). The Sun "leak" isn't actually any different to what he's said before. If Johnson honours the Benn Act, he'll get his November election. If he doesn't, he won't.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,934

    Against that, the Sun "has learned" Corbyn will support a Tuesday, 26/11 election.
    Jeremy Corbyn will agree to back a new bid by Boris to dissolve Parliament and go to the polls if he tables a vote for it on October 21, The Sun has learned.

    Although it does also mention this is contingent on the Benn Act.
    In a speech in Northampton he [Corbyn] will lay down a fresh gauntlet to the PM by telling him: “It’s simple: obey the law, take No Deal off the table and then let’s have the election.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10102153/labour-grant-boris-election-nov-26/

    It's never wise to bet on Corbyn not meaning what he says (whatever you think of it). The Sun "leak" isn't actually any different to what he's said before. If Johnson honours the Benn Act, he'll get his November election. If he doesn't, he won't.
    Not sure its wise to bet on what Corbyn says either.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492
    Sandpit said:

    On topic, I agree with Alastair’s conclusions, with one constraint: the suggestion in the Benn Act letter is for an extension until 31st January.

    If that is the extension given, then the election is probably going to have to be on 5th December, or possibly 13th. No-one is going to want to campaign over Christmas (or be seen supporting the idea), and an early January dissolution leads to a mid-February election, most likely 20th if we stick to a 25 day campaign and a Thursday election.

    My betting plan here is to base decisions on the extension date proposal, any date other than 31st Jan leads to a 2020 election. (But what do I know, I didn’t see Boris as next PM until it was way too late to still be laying the favourite).

    I don't see any reason for the EU to offer a short extension. It would simply create more hassle for them.

    Six months is probably the minimum, and it's best to look at dates in the EU calendar that they might link it to. So there's another EU council scheduled for mid-June, which is why the end of June has been mooted as a possible date.

    I've also suggested the end of 2020 - the end date for the transition period agreed as part of May's deal.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 20,384
    edited October 10
    Great article thanks. Crystallises what has been swirling around the PB discussion threads of late.

    But I disagree with its conclusion.

    Whatever goes on within Jeremy Corbyn's head; whatever the cold, hard superior strategy might be; whatever elephant trap may be being laid, once an extension has been asked for I don't think he could countenance any further delay whatsoever.

    It would set up too many attack lines for the Cons in that election ("you didn't care enough about the NHS or the homeless to want to get into power as soon as possible"). Plus Corbyn's pride has been pushed about as far as it can be.

    Extension confirmed, he will jump at an election as soon as he can.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,631

    Against that, the Sun "has learned" Corbyn will support a Tuesday, 26/11 election.
    Jeremy Corbyn will agree to back a new bid by Boris to dissolve Parliament and go to the polls if he tables a vote for it on October 21, The Sun has learned.

    Although it does also mention this is contingent on the Benn Act.
    In a speech in Northampton he [Corbyn] will lay down a fresh gauntlet to the PM by telling him: “It’s simple: obey the law, take No Deal off the table and then let’s have the election.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10102153/labour-grant-boris-election-nov-26/

    It's never wise to bet on Corbyn not meaning what he says (whatever you think of it). The Sun "leak" isn't actually any different to what he's said before. If Johnson honours the Benn Act, he'll get his November election. If he doesn't, he won't.
    Not sure its wise to bet on what Corbyn says either.
    If he changes his mind, will he say he was there, but he wasn't involved?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 1,137
    A leading pro-Remain MP told me recently that an imminent election was at best 50:50 owing to the nervousness of Labour MPs at the recent polls, and that the chances of a referendum were going up. FWIW I still think a December election is more likely than not, but it does seem that the probabilities may be shifting against it.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 540
    TOPPING said:

    Great article thanks. Crystallises what has been swirling around the PB discussion threads of late.

    But I disagree with its conclusion.

    Whatever goes on within Jeremy Corbyn's head; whatever the cold, hard superior strategy might be; whatever elephant trap may be being laid, once an extension has been asked for I don't think he could countenance any further delay whatsoever.

    It would set up too many attack lines for the Cons in that election ("you didn't care enough about the NHS or the homeless to want to get into power as soon as possible"). Plus Corbyn's pride has been pushed about as far as it can be.

    Extension confirmed, he will jump at an election as soon as he can.

    yes, but will enough MPs feel that way? The CUK, Independent Tories, quite a few Tory MPs, maybe some Lab plus Jared O'Mara may not want to take jump quite yet....?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,339
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Sandpit, aye, the monsoon in Malaysia 2009 springs to mind too.

    On-topic: such an election shouldn't happen *if* the Commons pro-EU priority is getting a second referendum.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,229
    The EU would indeed probably be prepared to give us more rope, except and unless Johnson makes it known that when he said he would try to disrupt it's business he meant it, by nominating a disruptive Commissioner. Perish the thought, but Farage has been suggested.
    That just might make the others decide that enough was enough and throw us out, without any transitional arrangements, on 31st October, with all the disruption that would bring.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,631

    TOPPING said:

    Great article thanks. Crystallises what has been swirling around the PB discussion threads of late.

    But I disagree with its conclusion.

    Whatever goes on within Jeremy Corbyn's head; whatever the cold, hard superior strategy might be; whatever elephant trap may be being laid, once an extension has been asked for I don't think he could countenance any further delay whatsoever.

    It would set up too many attack lines for the Cons in that election ("you didn't care enough about the NHS or the homeless to want to get into power as soon as possible"). Plus Corbyn's pride has been pushed about as far as it can be.

    Extension confirmed, he will jump at an election as soon as he can.

    yes, but will enough MPs feel that way? The CUK, Independent Tories, quite a few Tory MPs, maybe some Lab plus Jared O'Mara may not want to take jump quite yet....?
    Ah, the egregious O'Mara. How many promises to quit has he reneged on now?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,631

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Sandpit, aye, the monsoon in Malaysia 2009 springs to mind too.

    On-topic: such an election shouldn't happen *if* the Commons pro-EU priority is getting a second referendum.

    One of the major problems these 18 months has been nobody on either side can agree even among themselves on what the priority is.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,456
    I've laid November, but am green on December and 2020 (best result). I think what makes November unlikely is that Johnson is probably going to wait until the last minute before that extension letter goes...

    December feels very possible though to me. The point below about not campaigning over Christmas seems right.

    As an aside - I agree with Alistair that Corbyn would want a long campaign.

    But I'm not sure he would want a 14 day scramble to form a govt... he wants to look like the main opposition to Johnson and have a debate on policy, not endless coverage of whether Labour MPs would back someone else.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,200
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    England v France called off because of typhoon. Also New Zealand v Italy. It is still hoped that Sunday's games will go ahead.

    Suzuka have also cancelled the F1 support race programme scheduled over the weekend, leaving just the F1 cars which they hope they can fit in around the weather on Saturday and Sunday.

    Won’t be the first time the Japanese GP got messed around by weather, who schedules these events during a known storm season - the same people who thought it was okay to sage long-distance athletics races in Doha last week?
    Hardly a new problem, either.
    I have memories of listening on the radio overnight as Hunt won his title in torrential rain, Lauda having sensibly decided not to risk his life in the conditions.
    Indeed so - that was 24th October 1976, scheduling sports events in rainy seasons has been happening for a while!
    Could well be that there are serious difficulties for broadcasters if the typhoon strikes. Temporary buildings housing critical equipment, I understand. Built to cope with severe weather, but this will be exceptionally severe.
    Good point, wouldn’t want to be the cameraman a couple of hundred feet in the air on the end of a crane, nor the guy in the broadcast truck at the other end of the massive lightning rod camera cable.

    What usually does for F1 is if the medical helicopter is unable to fly, or if the local hospital is unable to accept it because of weather conditions or a local emergency. No helicopter, no cars on track - thanks to Prof Watkins and Bernie for that rule, when they decided they didn’t like going to so many young men’s funerals.
    And this one is equivalent to a Cat 5 hurricane - regrettably not an unusual occurrence recently.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,434
    edited October 10
    Throwing the keys of the Batmobile to Corbyn would put Johnson in the position to VoNC at will. Johnson would probably go for an election quicker than Corbyn.

    Don't rule it out, don't assume Corbyn would walk away from such a tempting, meaty trap, and note that the testing of confidence is not a necessity for Corbyn to become PM out with an FTPA style route (Boris.didn't have to gain confidence, even though confidence wasn't clear).

    This is still another quite viable route to a pre-Christmas election imho.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,701
    TOPPING said:

    Great article thanks. Crystallises what has been swirling around the PB discussion threads of late.

    But I disagree with its conclusion.

    Whatever goes on within Jeremy Corbyn's head; whatever the cold, hard superior strategy might be; whatever elephant trap may be being laid, once an extension has been asked for I don't think he could countenance any further delay whatsoever.

    It would set up too many attack lines for the Cons in that election ("you didn't care enough about the NHS or the homeless to want to get into power as soon as possible"). Plus Corbyn's pride has been pushed about as far as it can be.

    Extension confirmed, he will jump at an election as soon as he can.

    Corbyn wanted an election this month and had to be talked around by Starmer and McDonnell. It’s very, very hard to see him giving way a second time. Like many stupid people, he can be extremely obstinate. The big question is whether enough Labour MPs will back him to get Johnson the two-thirds he needs.

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,970
    edited October 10

    A leading pro-Remain MP told me recently that an imminent election was at best 50:50 owing to the nervousness of Labour MPs at the recent polls, and that the chances of a referendum were going up. FWIW I still think a December election is more likely than not, but it does seem that the probabilities may be shifting against it.

    Why wouldn’t Boris say:-

    1) I’m not engaging with Ref 2. It’s not legitimate because we never implemented Ref 1.
    2) Ref 2 proves the case Remainers/EU only accept votes they win, and you just keep voting till you get the desired result.
    3) Remain wins by a colossal margin of course, but it means nothing, the legitimacy is disputed, the whole thing rumbles on, with added bile.
    4) if Swinson says she’ll Revoke ( and would ignore Referendum results anyway she doesn’t like remember) if she wins a GE, and that trumps a Referendum, well two can play at that game, so we fan the flames for however long it takes to get a GE from Govt or Opposition (got to happen with 2.5 years), and go from there. Win a majority- out.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,701

    The EU would indeed probably be prepared to give us more rope, except and unless Johnson makes it known that when he said he would try to disrupt it's business he meant it, by nominating a disruptive Commissioner. Perish the thought, but Farage has been suggested.
    That just might make the others decide that enough was enough and throw us out, without any transitional arrangements, on 31st October, with all the disruption that would bring.

    Farage would just be rejected by MEPs. The commissioner threat is no threat at all.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,631

    The EU would indeed probably be prepared to give us more rope, except and unless Johnson makes it known that when he said he would try to disrupt it's business he meant it, by nominating a disruptive Commissioner. Perish the thought, but Farage has been suggested.
    That just might make the others decide that enough was enough and throw us out, without any transitional arrangements, on 31st October, with all the disruption that would bring.

    Farage would just be rejected by MEPs. The commissioner threat is no threat at all.

    Which is a shame, because for all I am a Remainer the damage Farage and the Commission could do to each other would be extremely funny to watch. That said, it's hard to see him as a less credible or more damaging candidate than Juncker.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492

    TOPPING said:

    Great article thanks. Crystallises what has been swirling around the PB discussion threads of late.

    But I disagree with its conclusion.

    Whatever goes on within Jeremy Corbyn's head; whatever the cold, hard superior strategy might be; whatever elephant trap may be being laid, once an extension has been asked for I don't think he could countenance any further delay whatsoever.

    It would set up too many attack lines for the Cons in that election ("you didn't care enough about the NHS or the homeless to want to get into power as soon as possible"). Plus Corbyn's pride has been pushed about as far as it can be.

    Extension confirmed, he will jump at an election as soon as he can.

    Corbyn wanted an election this month and had to be talked around by Starmer and McDonnell. It’s very, very hard to see him giving way a second time. Like many stupid people, he can be extremely obstinate. The big question is whether enough Labour MPs will back him to get Johnson the two-thirds he needs.
    Johnson has 288 votes and needs a further 145.

    Assuming there is no Opposition agreement on an alternative strategy, such as legislating for a referendum, then I think the SNP would vote for an election. That's another 35, so 110 Labour MPs.

    While two-thirds of Labour MPs did vote no confidence in Corbyn in 2016, I think the majority would vote with him for an early election, even if they didn't think it was a good idea. If Corbyn wills it - and Johnson doesn't back out - then an election will happen.
  • PloppikinsPloppikins Posts: 115
    I believe Corbyn when he says he'll vote for a GE when the extension is passed. I don't believe Boris when he tells the court he will adhere to the Benn act and request an extension.

    Johnson will never hand the keys over to Corbyn, it's not the Tory way. Imagine trying to defend letting in a crazed commie into No 10 and then claiming he'll destroy the country after that you're the one that let him in.

    I actually don't think Johnson has as much to lose from requesting an extension as he thinks he does... it feeds his People Vs parliament narrative and I think will have a frightening amount of traction on the doorstep.
  • Iirc the commissioners can only be rejected as a group. The MEPs can’t vote against just one of them.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492

    Iirc the commissioners can only be rejected as a group. The MEPs can’t vote against just one of them.

    That's my understanding, but Parliament approving the Commission was an innovation when it started and I'd expect the nomination of a wrecking UK commissioner to lead to a further innovation.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 168
    On topic: I agree with Alastair`s advice. Corbyn will continue to say he wants a GE but will not actually back one in the short term. He`ll cite Xmas as an excuse. I don`t see why the length of the EU extension is relevant to Corbyn. If 31 Jan, this offers up another period of Tory discomfort and additional chaos and damage, he thinks, to the Tory Party brand.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,500
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/10/childrens-health-england-must-be-put-ahead-of-profits-says-chief-medic

    One hopes that some of this is just being deliberately provocative to encourage acceptance of more sensible suggestions (I don’t mind the use of the tax system to encourage the development of and/or steering towards more healthy choices - if done in a non punitive way which might risk driving poverty) but some of the headline measures are just bonkers. Why not just go the whole hog and introduce rationing? I suppose it could be sold as a pro-Brexit measure ;)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307
    Scott_P said:
    Their names can be added to the war memorials as this generation’s addition to the Glorious Dead.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307

    Iirc the commissioners can only be rejected as a group. The MEPs can’t vote against just one of them.

    That's my understanding, but Parliament approving the Commission was an innovation when it started and I'd expect the nomination of a wrecking UK commissioner to lead to a further innovation.
    Article 17 of the Treaty of the European Union sets out the criteria for Commissioners. Nigel Farage flunks the test.
  • Except for conflicts of interest apparently under a recent change in the rules.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 168
    Alaitair doesn`t mention the possibility of a VONC being called by someone else in the Commons and supported by the governement. I understand that this is possible?

    The government know that they will not get 2/3 of total seats in support of a GE but they would probably get 50% of those that vote in a VONC (i.e. in a VONC abstentions do not count against).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307
    Stocky said:

    Alaitair doesn`t mention the possibility of a VONC being called by someone else in the Commons and supported by the governement. I understand that this is possible?

    The government know that they will not get 2/3 of total seats in support of a GE but they would probably get 50% of those that vote in a VONC (i.e. in a VONC abstentions do not count against).

    That still means seven weeks. Uncomfortably close to Christmas.

    There’s another point. I’ve assumed Boris Johnson will get on with his duties under the Benn Act quite promptly. That’s a bold assumption.
  • Iirc the commissioners can only be rejected as a group. The MEPs can’t vote against just one of them.

    That's my understanding, but Parliament approving the Commission was an innovation when it started and I'd expect the nomination of a wrecking UK commissioner to lead to a further innovation.
    Article 17 of the Treaty of the European Union sets out the criteria for Commissioners. Nigel Farage flunks the test.
    Which criteria?

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,631

    Iirc the commissioners can only be rejected as a group. The MEPs can’t vote against just one of them.

    That's my understanding, but Parliament approving the Commission was an innovation when it started and I'd expect the nomination of a wrecking UK commissioner to lead to a further innovation.
    Article 17 of the Treaty of the European Union sets out the criteria for Commissioners. Nigel Farage flunks the test.
    Which criteria?

    Don't they have to be federalist?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 20,384

    TOPPING said:

    Great article thanks. Crystallises what has been swirling around the PB discussion threads of late.

    But I disagree with its conclusion.

    Whatever goes on within Jeremy Corbyn's head; whatever the cold, hard superior strategy might be; whatever elephant trap may be being laid, once an extension has been asked for I don't think he could countenance any further delay whatsoever.

    It would set up too many attack lines for the Cons in that election ("you didn't care enough about the NHS or the homeless to want to get into power as soon as possible"). Plus Corbyn's pride has been pushed about as far as it can be.

    Extension confirmed, he will jump at an election as soon as he can.

    Corbyn wanted an election this month and had to be talked around by Starmer and McDonnell. It’s very, very hard to see him giving way a second time. Like many stupid people, he can be extremely obstinate. The big question is whether enough Labour MPs will back him to get Johnson the two-thirds he needs.

    It's amazing that we are all talking about this on the assumption that the planets have to be exactly adorned l aligned for the opposition to have any chance of beating the incumbents.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,631

    Stocky said:

    Alaitair doesn`t mention the possibility of a VONC being called by someone else in the Commons and supported by the governement. I understand that this is possible?

    The government know that they will not get 2/3 of total seats in support of a GE but they would probably get 50% of those that vote in a VONC (i.e. in a VONC abstentions do not count against).

    That still means seven weeks. Uncomfortably close to Christmas.

    There’s another point. I’ve assumed Boris Johnson will get on with his duties under the Benn Act quite promptly. That’s a bold assumption.
    Larry might sit on the pen?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307

    Iirc the commissioners can only be rejected as a group. The MEPs can’t vote against just one of them.

    That's my understanding, but Parliament approving the Commission was an innovation when it started and I'd expect the nomination of a wrecking UK commissioner to lead to a further innovation.
    Article 17 of the Treaty of the European Union sets out the criteria for Commissioners. Nigel Farage flunks the test.
    Which criteria?

    They have to be chosen for their general competence and European commitment from persons whose independence is beyond doubt.

    You can decide for yourself just how many of those he flunks but I think everyone would agree he fails at least one.
  • Iirc the commissioners can only be rejected as a group. The MEPs can’t vote against just one of them.

    That's my understanding, but Parliament approving the Commission was an innovation when it started and I'd expect the nomination of a wrecking UK commissioner to lead to a further innovation.
    I suspect it would. However this would lead to more accusations of the EU removing power for independent action from nation states. I think that is an icy road to travel.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307
    ydoethur said:

    Iirc the commissioners can only be rejected as a group. The MEPs can’t vote against just one of them.

    That's my understanding, but Parliament approving the Commission was an innovation when it started and I'd expect the nomination of a wrecking UK commissioner to lead to a further innovation.
    Article 17 of the Treaty of the European Union sets out the criteria for Commissioners. Nigel Farage flunks the test.
    Which criteria?

    Don't they have to be federalist?
    No.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,631

    Iirc the commissioners can only be rejected as a group. The MEPs can’t vote against just one of them.

    That's my understanding, but Parliament approving the Commission was an innovation when it started and I'd expect the nomination of a wrecking UK commissioner to lead to a further innovation.
    Article 17 of the Treaty of the European Union sets out the criteria for Commissioners. Nigel Farage flunks the test.
    Which criteria?

    They have to be chosen for their general competence and European commitment from persons whose independence is beyond doubt.

    You can decide for yourself just how many of those he flunks but I think everyone would agree he fails at least one.
    Although in fairness Juncker fails all but one, and he was still appointed.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,500
    Make Farage a Commissioner with a hefty pension contingent on not criticising the EU. Make him Commissioner without portfolio giving him no actual work to do. He might actually get used to the idea :)
  • StockyStocky Posts: 168
    Alastair: Even if Boris doesn`t get on with his Benn Act duties promptly, and somehow we slip out of the EU on 31/10, the incentive for Corbyn to back a GE is then even less because Boris will have done what he pledged to do.

    I suppose there would, in this scenario, be howls of protest against Corbyn not immediatley tabling a VONC from the Lib Dems and SNP, so I suppose there is a chance he will cave to this.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492
    alex. said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/10/childrens-health-england-must-be-put-ahead-of-profits-says-chief-medic

    One hopes that some of this is just being deliberately provocative to encourage acceptance of more sensible suggestions (I don’t mind the use of the tax system to encourage the development of and/or steering towards more healthy choices - if done in a non punitive way which might risk driving poverty) but some of the headline measures are just bonkers. Why not just go the whole hog and introduce rationing? I suppose it could be sold as a pro-Brexit measure ;)

    Exeter to Aberdeen is the longest train journey that I've done regularly. That's 10h25m direct. A long time to go without food. I wonder how those with diabetes would be able to prove it to train staff/British Transport Police?
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    Scott_P said:
    Is that the dumb quack that wants to ban eating and drinking on trains ?

    She seems to be an expert in puritanical nannying.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307
    Stocky said:

    Alastair: Even if Boris doesn`t get on with his Benn Act duties promptly, and somehow we slip out of the EU on 31/10, the incentive for Corbyn to back a GE is then even less because Boris will have done what he pledged to do.

    I suppose there would, in this scenario, be howls of protest against Corbyn not immediatley tabling a VONC from the Lib Dems and SNP, so I suppose there is a chance he will cave to this.

    I was meaning more that the timetable mapped out will slip further.

    A November election needs very tight choreography by multiple parties who have no obvious reason to work for it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,339
    Mr. Flashman (deceased), that doesn't necessarily mean she's wrong about disruption.

    [I believe she's also the damned fool who decided drinking guidelines should be the same for men and women, despite men being able to take more alcohol. Still, at least women will be able to enjoy the sexual equality of increased liver failure...]
  • Iirc the commissioners can only be rejected as a group. The MEPs can’t vote against just one of them.

    That's my understanding, but Parliament approving the Commission was an innovation when it started and I'd expect the nomination of a wrecking UK commissioner to lead to a further innovation.
    Article 17 of the Treaty of the European Union sets out the criteria for Commissioners. Nigel Farage flunks the test.
    Had a read of the relevant section. As long as he were to give up his other media roles and MEP status then he would not fail them. It seems relatively straightforward

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 3,097
    Pro_Rata said:

    Throwing the keys of the Batmobile to Corbyn would put Johnson in the position to VoNC at will. Johnson would probably go for an election quicker than Corbyn.

    Don't rule it out, don't assume Corbyn would walk away from such a tempting, meaty trap, and note that the testing of confidence is not a necessity for Corbyn to become PM out with an FTPA style route (Boris.didn't have to gain confidence, even though confidence wasn't clear).

    This is still another quite viable route to a pre-Christmas election imho.

    But it doesn’t because 14 days plus 35 minimum and corbyn gets to chose date anyway. One other consideration is that if the EU offer any other date than 31/1 then that will add a few days on before it is signed and sealed.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,324
    Meanwhile can Boris be stopped from winning an outright majority while Corbyn still leads the Labour party? I don't think so. Time for those of us who can't face five years of Johnson and his entourage to look at alternative arrangements.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,307

    Iirc the commissioners can only be rejected as a group. The MEPs can’t vote against just one of them.

    That's my understanding, but Parliament approving the Commission was an innovation when it started and I'd expect the nomination of a wrecking UK commissioner to lead to a further innovation.
    Article 17 of the Treaty of the European Union sets out the criteria for Commissioners. Nigel Farage flunks the test.
    Had a read of the relevant section. As long as he were to give up his other media roles and MEP status then he would not fail them. It seems relatively straightforward

    He’s not exactly famed for his European commitment.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,330
    Jezza might not have the time left to "go long" - when you reach 70 every day counts! :D
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 7,418
    Does anybody know who's behind the fake Britain Elects poll yesterday or why they did it (apart from winding up some posters on here)?

    "There was no poll released today by @OpiniumResearch or tweeted by us. Figures you may be seeing come from a fake account attempting to impersonate us and put out false data."
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 2,935
    Stocky said:

    Alastair: Even if Boris doesn`t get on with his Benn Act duties promptly, and somehow we slip out of the EU on 31/10, the incentive for Corbyn to back a GE is then even less because Boris will have done what he pledged to do.

    I suppose there would, in this scenario, be howls of protest against Corbyn not immediatley tabling a VONC from the Lib Dems and SNP, so I suppose there is a chance he will cave to this.

    If no deal is a disaster and there’s chaos then why would voters thank Bozo .

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,229
    ydoethur said:

    The EU would indeed probably be prepared to give us more rope, except and unless Johnson makes it known that when he said he would try to disrupt it's business he meant it, by nominating a disruptive Commissioner. Perish the thought, but Farage has been suggested.
    That just might make the others decide that enough was enough and throw us out, without any transitional arrangements, on 31st October, with all the disruption that would bring.

    Farage would just be rejected by MEPs. The commissioner threat is no threat at all.

    Which is a shame, because for all I am a Remainer the damage Farage and the Commission could do to each other would be extremely funny to watch. That said, it's hard to see him as a less credible or more damaging candidate than Juncker.
    Obviously Mr Observer’s post is welcome, but we do like to watch a full-scale spat!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 168
    Roger says: "Meanwhile can Boris be stopped from winning an outright majority while Corbyn still leads the Labour party? I don't think so"

    As I keep saying ad nauseam, it all depends on what the BXP do. Farage could yet act in a way which ironically: 1) defeats Brexit (by producing a non-Tory led govenment which referendums/revokes) 2) Makes Corbyn PM
  • StockyStocky Posts: 168
    Nico67 says: "If no deal is a disaster and there’s chaos then why would voters thank Bozo ."

    I promise you, brexiteers will not in any circumstances accept that leaving the EU represents a disaster. They will always say that we were right to leave the EU and Boris will get the credit.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), that doesn't necessarily mean she's wrong about disruption.

    [I believe she's also the damned fool who decided drinking guidelines should be the same for men and women, despite men being able to take more alcohol. Still, at least women will be able to enjoy the sexual equality of increased liver failure...]

    Welcome aboard tonight’s Caledonian sleeper from Euston to Fort William - we will be searching all rucksacks for contraband IPA and your next meal will be a bacon butty in 13hrs time.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 119
    Scott_P said:
    Not sure how this blockquote thingy works, but Scott_P is quoting a Torygraph interview with Hammond reminding us how spurious all those Leaver claims about foreign trade deals are

    So why did Hammond spend all of the May years supporting the gibberish arguments about "sunny uplands"?

    Though possibly more importantly: what's got the Telegraph start printing sensible views from anyone about Brexit?

    Tie this in with the recent silence from the Murdoch and Harmsworth tabloids and there's grounds for suspecting that even the mad billionaires who own most of our print media may be beginning to suspect that Cummings' plans will severely damage their wallets.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,500
    Missed any discussion yesterday. How is Johnson squaring “we will leave without a deal (if necessary) on October 31st” with “we will not (if extension forced on us) campaign for no deal in an election”?

    Frankly it would be better for all concerned if he did (the latter). At least then if he got a majority then everyone would know exactly where we stand and businesses could actually decide (in reasonable time) that preparing for it is actually money worth spending.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,776

    I believe Corbyn when he says he'll vote for a GE when the extension is passed. I don't believe Boris when he tells the court he will adhere to the Benn act and request an extension.

    Johnson will never hand the keys over to Corbyn, it's not the Tory way. Imagine trying to defend letting in a crazed commie into No 10 and then claiming he'll destroy the country after that you're the one that let him in.

    I actually don't think Johnson has as much to lose from requesting an extension as he thinks he does... it feeds his People Vs parliament narrative and I think will have a frightening amount of traction on the doorstep.

    Boris probably would have preferred the court saying it would send the extension request, it would remove a big headache for him and add to his narrative attacking 'the establishment'.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,776

    Iirc the commissioners can only be rejected as a group. The MEPs can’t vote against just one of them.

    That's my understanding, but Parliament approving the Commission was an innovation when it started and I'd expect the nomination of a wrecking UK commissioner to lead to a further innovation.
    Article 17 of the Treaty of the European Union sets out the criteria for Commissioners. Nigel Farage flunks the test.
    Had a read of the relevant section. As long as he were to give up his other media roles and MEP status then he would not fail them. It seems relatively straightforward

    Even if that were true it hardly matters, what matters is if they would say he failed the criteria, which they certainly would.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,776
    Stocky said:

    Roger says: "Meanwhile can Boris be stopped from winning an outright majority while Corbyn still leads the Labour party? I don't think so"

    As I keep saying ad nauseam, it all depends on what the BXP do. Farage could yet act in a way which ironically: 1) defeats Brexit (by producing a non-Tory led govenment which referendums/revokes) 2) Makes Corbyn PM

    I'd put that as pretty likely in fact.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,776
    GIN1138 said:

    Jezza might not have the time left to "go long" - when you reach 70 every day counts! :D

    Utter nonsense as those aristo PBers north of seventy will testify.

    However it might be conceded that yellow peril visitors to Auchentennach Castle might consider that "every day counts" as they rack up time and "go long" on some of the investigatory apparatus on show to valued LibDem temporary residents ..... :naughty:
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,492
    TGOHF2 said:

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), that doesn't necessarily mean she's wrong about disruption.

    [I believe she's also the damned fool who decided drinking guidelines should be the same for men and women, despite men being able to take more alcohol. Still, at least women will be able to enjoy the sexual equality of increased liver failure...]

    Welcome aboard tonight’s Caledonian sleeper from Euston to Fort William - we will be searching all rucksacks for contraband IPA and your next meal will be a bacon butty in 13hrs time.
    Going without food for 13 hours overnight is not much of a stretch. Finish dinner at 7pm, have breakfast at 8am.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,035
    edited October 10
    alex. said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/10/childrens-health-england-must-be-put-ahead-of-profits-says-chief-medic

    One hopes that some of this is just being deliberately provocative to encourage acceptance of more sensible suggestions (I don’t mind the use of the tax system to encourage the development of and/or steering towards more healthy choices - if done in a non punitive way which might risk driving poverty) but some of the headline measures are just bonkers. Why not just go the whole hog and introduce rationing? I suppose it could be sold as a pro-Brexit measure ;)

    The stats are pretty scary, and a good proportion of Britain is committing suicide by food.

    Public Health England has this useful little tool. It is quite obvious that obesity rates in children vary with social deprivation. Leicester has twice the rate of Harborough for example.

    Knowing PB interest, these are the stats for Hartlepool, 25%+ for some groups, obese or severely obese by age 11.

    https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/national-child-measurement-programme/data#page/7/gid/8000011/pat/6/par/E12000001/ati/101/are/E06000001/iid/92033/age/201/sex/4


  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 985
    edited October 10
    I'm not sure I'd bet against Tom Newton-Dunn being correct and Nov 25th is now the game plan by both main players.

    I half-wonder if the route to this, and the reason that No 10 have propelled the debate on 19th Oct, is that Parliament will vote to have a People's Vote. So there will be an extension and a PV next year. That will give the cue for a November General Election because almost every MP will support it.

    Johnson has no ontological interest in Brexit, unlike the true Brexiteers. He will drop it like a stone soon as he can. He just needs to save face first.
  • Stocky said:

    Roger says: "Meanwhile can Boris be stopped from winning an outright majority while Corbyn still leads the Labour party? I don't think so"

    As I keep saying ad nauseam, it all depends on what the BXP do. Farage could yet act in a way which ironically: 1) defeats Brexit (by producing a non-Tory led govenment which referendums/revokes) 2) Makes Corbyn PM

    I would suspect it would depend on two perspectives. 1) does he believe it would be a “real” Brexit. 2) would the prospect of a Corbyn Premiership be a case of “worse is better” by realignment of Westminster politics, thereby either wiping out the left wing of the Conservative Party or forcing a merger with the BXP. Don’t forget, Mr. Farage has been working on Brexit for over 25 years. It is not a short term project for him.

  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 1,137
    TGOHF2 said:

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), that doesn't necessarily mean she's wrong about disruption.

    [I believe she's also the damned fool who decided drinking guidelines should be the same for men and women, despite men being able to take more alcohol. Still, at least women will be able to enjoy the sexual equality of increased liver failure...]

    Welcome aboard tonight’s Caledonian sleeper from Euston to Fort William - we will be searching all rucksacks for contraband IPA and your next meal will be a bacon butty in 13hrs time.
    To be fair I don't normally eat anything in the 13 hours or so between dinner and breakfast, so the Caledonian Sleeper is probably the one long train journey where I would happily go without food (and indeed often do, although my regular journey is less than 9 hours).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 30,481
    TGOHF2 said:

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), that doesn't necessarily mean she's wrong about disruption.

    [I believe she's also the damned fool who decided drinking guidelines should be the same for men and women, despite men being able to take more alcohol. Still, at least women will be able to enjoy the sexual equality of increased liver failure...]

    Welcome aboard tonight’s Caledonian sleeper from Euston to Fort William - we will be searching all rucksacks for contraband IPA and your next meal will be a bacon butty in 13hrs time.
    I’d take no notice of the rantings of the Chief Medical Officer.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 985
    And, to run counter to what most people think, Corbyn will out-perform in a General Election campaign. Like he did last time. He's really quite good on the hustings, whipping up fervour about things he's actually interested in. I doubt he'd win a majority but I'm fairly confident he will prevent a Con-DUP majority, ably assisted by the SNP, LibDems and BXP.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 1,137

    TGOHF2 said:

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), that doesn't necessarily mean she's wrong about disruption.

    [I believe she's also the damned fool who decided drinking guidelines should be the same for men and women, despite men being able to take more alcohol. Still, at least women will be able to enjoy the sexual equality of increased liver failure...]

    Welcome aboard tonight’s Caledonian sleeper from Euston to Fort William - we will be searching all rucksacks for contraband IPA and your next meal will be a bacon butty in 13hrs time.
    Going without food for 13 hours overnight is not much of a stretch. Finish dinner at 7pm, have breakfast at 8am.
    Yes that is me more or less every day.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 16,173

    Iirc the commissioners can only be rejected as a group. The MEPs can’t vote against just one of them.

    That's my understanding, but Parliament approving the Commission was an innovation when it started and I'd expect the nomination of a wrecking UK commissioner to lead to a further innovation.
    Article 17 of the Treaty of the European Union sets out the criteria for Commissioners. Nigel Farage flunks the test.
    Had a read of the relevant section. As long as he were to give up his other media roles and MEP status then he would not fail them. It seems relatively straightforward

    He’s not exactly famed for his European commitment.
    He's deeply committed to making a living out of the EU, doesn't that count for anything?
  • felixfelix Posts: 9,084

    Does anybody know who's behind the fake Britain Elects poll yesterday or why they did it (apart from winding up some posters on here)?

    "There was no poll released today by @OpiniumResearch or tweeted by us. Figures you may be seeing come from a fake account attempting to impersonate us and put out false data."

    Dunno but it partly worked because the figures were believable.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 168
    Mysticrose says: "I half-wonder if the route to this, and the reason that No 10 have propelled the debate on 19th Oct, is that Parliament will vote to have a People's Vote. So there will be an extension and a PV next year. That will give the cue for a November General Election because almost every MP will support it."

    If parliamentarians take control again and re-run the Kyle amendment, setting a scenario that you describe there will be no GE for sure. Tories would never support not leaving teh EU 31/10 / referendum. Have I misunderstood you?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 47,776

    TGOHF2 said:

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), that doesn't necessarily mean she's wrong about disruption.

    [I believe she's also the damned fool who decided drinking guidelines should be the same for men and women, despite men being able to take more alcohol. Still, at least women will be able to enjoy the sexual equality of increased liver failure...]

    Welcome aboard tonight’s Caledonian sleeper from Euston to Fort William - we will be searching all rucksacks for contraband IPA and your next meal will be a bacon butty in 13hrs time.
    Going without food for 13 hours overnight is not much of a stretch. Finish dinner at 7pm, have breakfast at 8am.
    But you have the possibility of doing otherwise, which actually makes it easier to bear.
  • kle4 said:

    Iirc the commissioners can only be rejected as a group. The MEPs can’t vote against just one of them.

    That's my understanding, but Parliament approving the Commission was an innovation when it started and I'd expect the nomination of a wrecking UK commissioner to lead to a further innovation.
    Article 17 of the Treaty of the European Union sets out the criteria for Commissioners. Nigel Farage flunks the test.
    Had a read of the relevant section. As long as he were to give up his other media roles and MEP status then he would not fail them. It seems relatively straightforward

    Even if that were true it hardly matters, what matters is if they would say he failed the criteria, which they certainly would.
    I believe you are right. However what is the potential outcome of that? Will the UK government refuse and reselect him or will they go to court? If that is possible. I would suspect they could try. Also, as I said earlier, this would feed into the “EU blocking the interests of the UK” narrative.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,200
  • StockyStocky Posts: 168
    Mysticrose: I think I misunderstood. You have possibly alighted in the Remainer MP plan:

    1) take control of the agenda again
    2) pass Kyle amendment (approve May WA if supported by a confirmatory refendum)
    3) GE by VONC
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 15,086
    Stocky said:

    Roger says: "Meanwhile can Boris be stopped from winning an outright majority while Corbyn still leads the Labour party? I don't think so"

    As I keep saying ad nauseam, it all depends on what the BXP do. Farage could yet act in a way which ironically: 1) defeats Brexit (by producing a non-Tory led govenment which referendums/revokes) 2) Makes Corbyn PM

    There's nothing ironic about that as it is exactly what Farage wants to do.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,757
    Great header. Totally agree. GE in 2020.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    Phil “ I took the Cons to 9%” Hammond ?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 168
    Another_richard: you think that Farage wants Brexit defeated and Corbyn as PM??
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