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If anyone is wondering what a negotiating “tunnel” is, it’s just Brussels jargon for trying a bit harder not to leak everything

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JBriskinindyref2

"Sinn Fein 7"

There are currently zero Sinn Fein MPs - school boy error, we expect better.

nichomar

JBriskinindyref2 said:

"Sinn Fein 7"

There are currently zero Sinn Fein MPs - school boy error, we expect better.

Second not third

TheScreamingEagles

I'm still recovering from the line 'Jo Johnson, might give his brother a sympathy shag' some three hours after I first read it.

isam

Re the Lib Dem’s @rcs1000... I am pretty confident they will return to a distant third once Brexit is done and Corbyn goes.

dyedwoolie

Imo if the DUP are on board the deal will pass very easily. If not then it will be very tight indeed.

rpjs

FPT:

HYUFD said:

Gabs2 said:

HYUFD said:

DougSeal said:

HYUFD said:

DougSeal said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It's the Old Mrs Mait is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property.)

Of course, this also means that Northern Ireland will never reunite with the South. Which, hopefully, the DUP will be smart enough to realise.

It may delay reunification, but it won't stop it - the demographics will see to that. The DUP understands that very well indeed.

I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.

At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.

County Antrim is the largest in Noic of Ireland

You can’t split off subsections of subsections until all you are left with is the Shankill Road. In any event Co Antrim (along with all the other traditional counties) was abolished as an administrative unit for nearly all purposes in 1972.

So what, all the districts within it are still majority Unionist and will never accept being part of the Republic and most Northern Ireland residents still refer to the old counties

Partition is a disaster. Repartition a disaster upon a disaster. Antrim is an integral part of Ireland and should be treated as such. Liverpool elected an Irish Nationalist MP in 1918 but that doesn’t mean it should have been ceded to Ireland.

Utter crap. Forcing Antrim into the Republic against its consent and with direct rule from Dublin will inevitably see a resumption of terrorist violence in Northern Ireland

How is it any different from forcing Derry to stay in Northern Ireland against its will?

As I said I have no problem with Catholic majority counties joining the Republic and indeed for decades the IRA and nationalist terrorist organisations fought a bombing campaign to ensure that against direct rule from London. Only powersharing at Stormont between Protestant and Nationalist settled that, direct rule from Dublin for all of Northern Ireland would start up another terrorist war only this time from the Unionist side and the old loyalist paramilitaries

You do know that the only reason Fermanagh and Tyrone were shoe-horned into NI in the first place was that the Unionists didn't see how a less than six county statelet could be at all viable.

williamglenn

isam said:

Re the Lib Dem’s @rcs1000... I am pretty confident they will return to a distant third once Brexit is done and Corbyn goes.

Labour have the structural advantage of already having been wiped out in Scotland. They can reinvent themselves as an English party more easily.

MarqueeMark

Faint candle? Super-trouper more like......

Big_G_NorthWales

Good thread Alastair much of which I very much agree with

jayfdee

FTSE 250 up 4.2% today, some investors are enthused by a possible deal.
Me, I will be out of the country on Halloween, in a tent, high up in the Himalayas, no possible internet or mobile, and will hopefully return to the UK November, if my passport is still valid.
We will have a satellite phone, so I could make contact, but I think I will have a Brexit Detox.

Yellow_Submarine

Anne-Marie Trevelyn was a Spartan who has since been made a Minister.

Casino_Royale

Excellent post.

Either all the stars fall into alignment for Boris, or it only gets about 270 votes.

We’ll shortly find out which one it is.

AramintaMoonbeamQC

Yellow_Submarine said:

Anne-Marie Trevelyn was a Spartan who has since been made a Minister.

All she has ever been looking for is a job, no chance she will vote down the deal.

isam

A lot of these arguments in headers remind me of football models where, as each leg goes down, the program says have the same bet again... at some point you have to consider whether the numbers you put in at the start need to be rebased

RobD

Thanks, Alastair!

Pulpstar

jayfdee said:

FTSE 250 up 4.2% today, some investors are enthused by a possible deal.
Me, I will be out of the country on Halloween, in a tent, high up in the Himalayas, no possible internet or mobile, and will hopefully return to the UK November, if my passport is still valid.
We will have a satellite phone, so I could make contact, but I think I will have a Brexit Detox.

Which peak are you going for ?

Best of luck with your trek ;o

nico67

Michel Barnier comes out with huge credit .

Class personified. It’s incredibly difficult to have not made a huge gaff in 3 years , when you think of how many news conferences he’s done and the fact he had to put up with Davis and Raab .

rcs1000

isam said:

Re the Lib Dem’s @rcs1000... I am pretty confident they will return to a distant third once Brexit is done and Corbyn goes.

I think Corbyn going is the key one... If the Labour Party were to put in place an internationalist (non-antimsemitic Marxist), then that would dent them most.

But the UK is split on nationalist/internationalist lines. And that is a seam that the LDs can capitalise on.

Let me put this another way: 100 years ago the Liberals found themselves without a clear position as the UK's voting axis switched.

Now, there's a new switch to the nationalist/internationalist axis, and it's Labour who doesn't have a clear position this time. They need to be nationalist in their former working class heartlandsm and internationalist in the Cities.

I could be completely wrong, of course. But that's how the UK feels like it's moving to me.

AlastairMeeks

Yellow_Submarine said:

Anne-Marie Trevelyn was a Spartan who has since been made a Minister.

She became a helot for the third meaningful vote.

Casino_Royale

FWIW, it’s possible it fails straight but an indicative vote passes it subject to a binding confirmatory vote.

Since that’s legislation Boris could never bring in and may be stonewalled on a GE I can only assume he’d resign the Government.

spudgfsh

good post.

didn't JRM vote againt every time?

nichomar

rpjs said:

FPT:

HYUFD said:

Gabs2 said:

HYUFD said:

DougSeal said:

HYUFD said:

DougSeal said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It's the Old Mrs Mait is essentially a massive boondoggle to the North. (Buy Belfast property

I don’t see any reason why unification of Ireland is inevitable.

At some point, those who consider themselves Irish are going to outnumber those who consider themselves British. And that will then be that.

County Antrim is the largest in Noic of Ireland

You can’t split off subsections of subsections until all you are left with is the Shankill Road. In any event Co Antrim (along with all the other traditional counties) was abolished as an administrative unit for nearly all purposes in 1972.

So what, all the districts within it are still majority Unionist and will never accept being part of the Republic and most Northern Ireland residents still refer to the old counties

Partition is a disaster. Repartition a disaster upon a disaster. Antrim is an integral part of Ireland and should be treated as such. Liverpool elected an Irish Nationalist MP in 1918 but that doesn’t mean it should have been ceded to Ireland.

Utter crap. Forcing Antrim into the Republic against its consent and with direct rule from Dublin will inevitably see a resumption of terrorist violence in Northern Ireland

How is it any different from forcing Derry to stay in Northern Ireland against its will?

As I said I have no problem with Catholic majority counties joining the Republic and indeed for decades the IRA and nationalist terrorist organisations fought a bombing campaign to ensure that against direct rule from London. Only powersharing at Stormont between Protestant and Nationalist settled that, direct rule from Dublin for all of Northern Ireland would start up another terrorist war only this time from the Unionist side and the old loyalist paramilitaries

You do know that the only reason Fermanagh and Tyrone were shoe-horned into NI in the first place was that the Unionists didn't see how a less than six county statelet could be at all viable.

I thought the border was drawn as described in Puckoon by spike Milligan!

Omnium

isam said:

Re the Lib Dem’s @rcs1000... I am pretty confident they will return to a distant third once Brexit is done and Corbyn goes.

There are a lot of possible Corbyn successors that are even worse than he is. They're only viewed as possible heirs because he's disenfranchised a wing of the party. In some cases I think he's just worn them out - Benn, Kinnock, Mrs EdB. In other cases they've been away too long - Milliband, EdB.

The problem Labour have in finding a successor is that absolutely all of the potential candidates are awful - at least in terms of potential PMs.

Starmer seems the obvious choice, but he's always seemed to me to be like a consultant parachuted in to fill a role - and of course to some extent that's what he is.

Thornberry is just far too new posh. That'd be bad enough in other parties, but in Labour?

So we're left with Long-Bailey. When she first appeared she was as bad as it gets. However she's improving, although she couldn't have gotten worse, so it's no great compliment. I think she'll prove to be an interesting politician, but that's well down the road.

So, a gap. I imagine David Lammy is considering his options.

Casino_Royale

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

Re the Lib Dem’s @rcs1000... I am pretty confident they will return to a distant third once Brexit is done and Corbyn goes.

I think Corbyn going is the key one... If the Labour Party were to put in place an internationalist (non-antimsemitic Marxist), then that would dent them most.

But the UK is split on nationalist/internationalist lines. And that is a seam that the LDs can capitalise on.

Let me put this another way: 100 years ago the Liberals found themselves without a clear position as the UK's voting axis switched.

Now, there's a new switch to the nationalist/internationalist axis, and it's Labour who doesn't have a clear position this time. They need to be nationalist in their former working class heartlandsm and internationalist in the Cities.

I could be completely wrong, of course. But that's how the UK feels like it's moving to me.

That’s a very good point.

I’d say, at present, the numbers aren’t quite there for the internationalists in the same way though. It’s probably 20-25% of the population at most, whereas Labour were appealing to about 70%+ of the population when they took over in the 1920s.

Yellow_Submarine

" no Labour MP "

The only spasm of genuine opposition to Brexit this process has manged to wringe from Jeremy Corbyn was caused by Boris' offer letter. The watering down of the PD to homopathic levels was so obvious even Corbyn noticed.

It promoted him to say ex cathedra ( from the opposition despatch box no less ) " no Labour MP " could vote for it.

" no Labour MP " could mean anything from the mild insinuation they were a sell out to the concrete statement anyone doing so would have the whip removed and not be allowed to restand. Or anything inbetween. But I'd suggest we find out what Corbyn meant before we estimate how many whip holding Labour MPs will back MV4.

nichomar

spudgfsh said:

good post.

didn't JRM vote againt every time?

Not in MV3

dyedwoolie

Casino_Royale said:

FWIW, it’s possible it fails straight but an indicative vote passes it subject to a binding confirmatory vote.

Since that’s legislation Boris could never bring in and may be stonewalled on a GE I can only assume he’d resign the Government.

Depends what the 27 have to say about extensions. If they say this is it, take it or leave it, we will extend to the end of the year if you need time to legislate but no further then referendum is off the cards.

AlastairMeeks

spudgfsh said:

good post.

didn't JRM vote againt every time?

No. For those curious about the list in the meaningful votes:

https://ig.ft.com/brexit-exit-deal-vote/

The_Taxman

I cannot see how BJ will get this purported deal through the Commons. Nothing really has changed! Indeed, the numbers have probably diminished from the TM deal to provide an even worse set of fundamentals. We get this week in and week out, it really amuses me how people talk up this or that development as critical to Brexit! It never is and something else will crop up to blow this off course...

AlastairMeeks

dyedwoolie said:

Imo if the DUP are on board the deal will pass very easily. If not then it will be very tight indeed.

The DUP are likely to be key.

Yellow_Submarine

AlastairMeeks said:

Yellow_Submarine said:

Anne-Marie Trevelyn was a Spartan who has since been made a Minister.

She became a helot for the third meaningful vote.

Oh. Maybe I've confused her with Anne-Marie Morris.

JBriskinindyref2

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

Re the Lib Dem’s @rcs1000... I am pretty confident they will return to a distant third once Brexit is done and Corbyn goes.

I think Corbyn going is the key one... If the Labour Party were to put in place an internationalist (non-antimsemitic Marxist), then that would dent them most.

But the UK is split on nationalist/internationalist lines. And that is a seam that the LDs can capitalise on.

Let me put this another way: 100 years ago the Liberals found themselves without a clear position as the UK's voting axis switched.

Now, there's a new switch to the nationalist/internationalist axis, and it's Labour who doesn't have a clear position this time. They need to be nationalist in their former working class heartlandsm and internationalist in the Cities.

I could be completely wrong, of course. But that's how the UK feels like it's moving to me.

This is crap - Just because the leavers don't want to be in that farce of a democracy and large bureaucratic expense that is the EU we are "nationalist". I live in Scotland - If you want to experience Nationalism come here.

Stuartinromford

Obviously, nobody knows what this deal is going to look like, but is it still set to be just covering the immediate withdrawal, leaving the longterm relationship to be determined?

If so, that leaves a huge, impossible-to-ignore pile of politics still to do. When TM was PM and trying to get her deal through, great play was made of it being the necessary doorway through to single markets and customs unions. So, assuming the Boris deal works out, notwithstanding his preference for a Canada-style FTA, are all the other ideas still going to be on the table?

jayfdee

Pulpstar said:

jayfdee said:

FTSE 250 up 4.2% today, some investors are enthused by a possible deal.
Me, I will be out of the country on Halloween, in a tent, high up in the Himalayas, no possible internet or mobile, and will hopefully return to the UK November, if my passport is still valid.
We will have a satellite phone, so I could make contact, but I think I will have a Brexit Detox.

Which peak are you going for ?

Best of luck with your trek ;o

My peak bagging days are over, her indoors has banned me, so we are just having a look at Manaslu, the 8th highest peak in the world, but camping at 18000ft is always painful, only one night at this altitude.
I find it a good detox from the western world, no beer, vegetarian, no news.
But back in Kathmandu, I will log in. Off out in 10 days.

Yellow_Submarine

The_Taxman said:

I cannot see how BJ will get this purported deal through the Commons. Nothing really has changed! Indeed, the numbers have probably diminished from the TM deal to provide an even worse set of fundamentals. We get this week in and week out, it really amuses me how people talk up this or that development as critical to Brexit! It never is and something else will crop up to blow this off course...

What's changed is Boris. Destroying a third PM in a row is a bigger ask than destroying a second. Even for the Tory Party.

Chris

dyedwoolie said:

Casino_Royale said:

FWIW, it’s possible it fails straight but an indicative vote passes it subject to a binding confirmatory vote.

Since that’s legislation Boris could never bring in and may be stonewalled on a GE I can only assume he’d resign the Government.

Depends what the 27 have to say about extensions. If they say this is it, take it or leave it, we will extend to the end of the year if you need time to legislate but no further then referendum is off the cards.

That's an interesting thought. But presumably by the time the Commons voted on a deal (if there were one), the 27 wouldn't have said anything officially about extensions in the event of its not passing. Would they?

Anabobazina

I’m someone from a nationalist Labour heartland who is now a metropolitan internationalist. People can move on. The trick is to make it easier than it is.

dyedwoolie

Chris said:

dyedwoolie said:

Casino_Royale said:

FWIW, it’s possible it fails straight but an indicative vote passes it subject to a binding confirmatory vote.

Since that’s legislation Boris could never bring in and may be stonewalled on a GE I can only assume he’d resign the Government.

Depends what the 27 have to say about extensions. If they say this is it, take it or leave it, we will extend to the end of the year if you need time to legislate but no further then referendum is off the cards.

That's an interesting thought. But presumably by the time the Commons voted on a deal (if there were one), the 27 wouldn't have said anything officially about extensions in the event of its not passing. Would they?

They might give a steer 'pour encourager'

Anabobazina

nico67 said:

Michel Barnier comes out with huge credit .

Class personified. It’s incredibly difficult to have not made a huge gaff in 3 years , when you think of how many news conferences he’s done and the fact he had to put up with Davis and Raab .

Barnier is a class act.

Chris

dyedwoolie said:

Chris said:

dyedwoolie said:

Casino_Royale said:

FWIW, it’s possible it fails straight but an indicative vote passes it subject to a binding confirmatory vote.

Since that’s legislation Boris could never bring in and may be stonewalled on a GE I can only assume he’d resign the Government.

Depends what the 27 have to say about extensions. If they say this is it, take it or leave it, we will extend to the end of the year if you need time to legislate but no further then referendum is off the cards.

That's an interesting thought. But presumably by the time the Commons voted on a deal (if there were one), the 27 wouldn't have said anything officially about extensions in the event of its not passing. Would they?

They might give a steer 'pour encourager'

Hmm. Well I thought they might do that back in March, but they didn't. On the other hand, things look likely a lot closer now if Johnson does come up with a deal.

dyedwoolie

dyedwoolie said:

Chris said:

dyedwoolie said:

Casino_Royale said:

FWIW, it’s possible it fails straight but an indicative vote passes it subject to a binding confirmatory vote.

Since that’s legislation Boris could never bring in and may be stonewalled on a GE I can only assume he’d resign the Government.

Depends what the 27 have to say about extensions. If they say this is it, take it or leave it, we will extend to the end of the year if you need time to legislate but no further then referendum is off the cards.

That's an interesting thought. But presumably by the time the Commons voted on a deal (if there were one), the 27 wouldn't have said anything officially about extensions in the event of its not passing. Would they?

They might give a steer 'pour encourager'

Plus I imagine part of the UK negotiating position will be 'it needs to be clear there is no time for referendums etc'

The_Taxman

Yellow_Submarine said:

The_Taxman said:

I cannot see how BJ will get this purported deal through the Commons. Nothing really has changed! Indeed, the numbers have probably diminished from the TM deal to provide an even worse set of fundamentals. We get this week in and week out, it really amuses me how people talk up this or that development as critical to Brexit! It never is and something else will crop up to blow this off course...

What's changed is Boris. Destroying a third PM in a row is a bigger ask than destroying a second. Even for the Tory Party.

Why? He has lost control and destroyed himself. He no longer has a route to any Commons majority. This is not about the Tory party but the Country and its representatives in Parliament who are hostile to his administration. I cannot see a way forward under him. Maybe this is why Jo Johnson looked so grim faced when his brother won the leadership. He knew that the Premiership would end in failure after a short time...

Andy_JS

Good evening. Just seen this new YouGov poll.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1182620121300459521

Charles

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent post.

Either all the stars fall into alignment for Boris, or it only gets about 270 votes.

We’ll shortly find out which one it is.

Anyone who votes against forfeits the moral right to whine about no deal

(Not that it will stop them, mind)

GIN1138

Would be funny if it's a tie and Bercow gets the casting vote.

Could we see Bercow voting for Brexit?

GIN1138

Andy_JS said:

Good evening. Just seen this new YouGov poll.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1182620121300459521

You'd have thought they'd have kept it for one of the Sunday papers.

JBriskinindyref2

Anabobazina said:

nico67 said:

Michel Barnier comes out with huge credit .

Class personified. It’s incredibly difficult to have not made a huge gaff in 3 years , when you think of how many news conferences he’s done and the fact he had to put up with Davis and Raab .

Barnier is a class act.

Honestly, if you Remainacs love the EU so much there's still time to fuck off there and live freely before 31st Oct

algarkirk

What looks now beyond doubt is that Boris wants a deal. And further, I still think that under no circumstances will he allow us to leave without one. On the second point he has been strategically clever. He can avoid No Deal in any event without it being his fault.

Yellow_Submarine

Another interesting question is timing. Assuming a deal can be done can it be turned into international treaty text to be agreed next Thursday evening/Friday morning ? And if so will the Commons be impressed by being asked to vote on it 24hrs after it was agreed ? Setting hard deadlines is usually a good idea but so far the Commons has seen off 29/3 22/4 and now 31/10. Will bouncing them on ' Super Saturday ' work ? Especially as they have to vote in favour of Super Saturday in the first place. If EUCO preemptively grants the Benn extension to 31/1 for ratification purposes the Commons may decide to tell Boris not to rush things.

Chris

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Anabobazina said:

nico67 said:

Michel Barnier comes out with huge credit .

Class personified. It’s incredibly difficult to have not made a huge gaff in 3 years , when you think of how many news conferences he’s done and the fact he had to put up with Davis and Raab .

Barnier is a class act.

Honestly, if you Remainacs love the EU so much there's still time to fuck off there and live freely before 31st Oct

Oh dear. "Why don't you go and live in Russia?"

nichomar

Charles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent post.

Either all the stars fall into alignment for Boris, or it only gets about 270 votes.

We’ll shortly find out which one it is.

Anyone who votes against forfeits the moral right to whine about no deal

(Not that it will stop them, mind)

So the MPs have to vote for any old shit that is proposed? You have to vote for it even though you want guarantees on environmental and employment standards? You have to vote for it if you think it will be detrimental to you’re constituents?

JBriskinindyref2

Chris said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Anabobazina said:

nico67 said:

Michel Barnier comes out with huge credit .

Class personified. It’s incredibly difficult to have not made a huge gaff in 3 years , when you think of how many news conferences he’s done and the fact he had to put up with Davis and Raab .

Barnier is a class act.

Honestly, if you Remainacs love the EU so much there's still time to fuck off there and live freely before 31st Oct

Oh dear. "Why don't you go and live in Russia?"

Perhaps Russia's Communist experiment would have worked a lot better if they had more workers.

Omnium

GIN1138 said:

Would be funny if it's a tie and Bercow gets the casting vote.

Could we see Bercow voting for Brexit?

In such circumstances I guess he'd feel obliged to do so. He'd have to consider that voting with the government was slightly more the thing to do, and similarly that there was some sort of public mandate that way. Bercow has got much of his recent time in office rather wrong, but I think he's been trying to get it right. So yes we could.

Yellow_Submarine

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Anabobazina said:

nico67 said:

Michel Barnier comes out with huge credit .

Class personified. It’s incredibly difficult to have not made a huge gaff in 3 years , when you think of how many news conferences he’s done and the fact he had to put up with Davis and Raab .

Barnier is a class act.

Honestly, if you Remainacs love the EU so much there's still time to fuck off there and live freely before 31st Oct

PB has the most robust debate but that's just vulgar abuse and completely out of order. I'd suggest you apologise.

Gabs2

Anabobazina said:

nico67 said:

Michel Barnier comes out with huge credit .

Class personified. It’s incredibly difficult to have not made a huge gaff in 3 years , when you think of how many news conferences he’s done and the fact he had to put up with Davis and Raab .

Barnier is a class act.

Is he? This deal only made progress after he was cut out of the loop between Varadkar and Johnson. His pushes for no bilateral talks and the sequencing of talks got us to this impasse.

The_Taxman

GIN1138 said:

Andy_JS said:

Good evening. Just seen this new YouGov poll.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1182620121300459521

You'd have thought they'd have kept it for one of the Sunday papers.

I took part in a YouGov that asked voting intention on the 10th October, it also asked questions on attitude to Deals/No Deal as well as Remain. So one should be coming out over the weekend unless it was party driven research for positioning purposes.

JBriskinindyref2

Yellow_Submarine said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Anabobazina said:

nico67 said:

Michel Barnier comes out with huge credit .

Class personified. It’s incredibly difficult to have not made a huge gaff in 3 years , when you think of how many news conferences he’s done and the fact he had to put up with Davis and Raab .

Barnier is a class act.

Honestly, if you Remainacs love the EU so much there's still time to fuck off there and live freely before 31st Oct

PB has the most robust debate but that's just vulgar abuse and completely out of order. I'd suggest you apologise.

Nah, I've said it before on here. Think of it like a catchphrase.

Gabs2

JBriskinindyref2 said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

Re the Lib Dem’s @rcs1000... I am pretty confident they will return to a distant third once Brexit is done and Corbyn goes.

I think Corbyn going is the key one... If the Labour Party were to put in place an internationalist (non-antimsemitic Marxist), then that would dent them most.

But the UK is split on nationalist/internationalist lines. And that is a seam that the LDs can capitalise on.

Let me put this another way: 100 years ago the Liberals found themselves without a clear position as the UK's voting axis switched.

Now, there's a new switch to the nationalist/internationalist axis, and it's Labour who doesn't have a clear position this time. They need to be nationalist in their former working class heartlandsm and internationalist in the Cities.

I could be completely wrong, of course. But that's how the UK feels like it's moving to me.

This is crap - Just because the leavers don't want to be in that farce of a democracy and large bureaucratic expense that is the EU we are "nationalist". I live in Scotland - If you want to experience Nationalism come here.

Which word would you prefer? Sovereigntist?

Charles

nichomar said:

Charles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent post.

Either all the stars fall into alignment for Boris, or it only gets about 270 votes.

We’ll shortly find out which one it is.

Anyone who votes against forfeits the moral right to whine about no deal

(Not that it will stop them, mind)

So the MPs have to vote for any old shit that is proposed? You have to vote for it even though you want guarantees on environmental and employment standards? You have to vote for it if you think it will be detrimental to you’re constituents?

No but if the threshold is that No Deal will destroy the world that’s not a high bar to beat

isam

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

Re the Lib Dem’s @rcs1000... I am pretty confident they will return to a distant third once Brexit is done and Corbyn goes.

I think Corbyn going is the key one... If the Labour Party were to put in place an internationalist (non-antimsemitic Marxist), then that would dent them most.

But the UK is split on nationalist/internationalist lines. And that is a seam that the LDs can capitalise on.

Let me put this another way: 100 years ago the Liberals found themselves without a clear position as the UK's voting axis switched.

Now, there's a new switch to the nationalist/internationalist axis, and it's Labour who doesn't have a clear position this time. They need to be nationalist in their former working class heartlandsm and internationalist in the Cities.

I could be completely wrong, of course. But that's how the UK feels like it's moving to me.

I could be wrong too obviously. I just fell there is no real passion for them, they are just what they always were, somewhere to go for a while when you're pissed off with Labour or Tory... if there were an election with No Deal a possibilty they could do well,if we leave with a deal... sub 10%

JBriskinindyref2

Gabs2 said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

Re the Lib Dem’s @rcs1000... I am pretty confident they will return to a distant third once Brexit is done and Corbyn goes.

I think Corbyn going is the key one... If the Labour Party were to put in place an internationalist (non-antimsemitic Marxist), then that would dent them most.

But the UK is split on nationalist/internationalist lines. And that is a seam that the LDs can capitalise on.

Let me put this another way: 100 years ago the Liberals found themselves without a clear position as the UK's voting axis switched.

Now, there's a new switch to the nationalist/internationalist axis, and it's Labour who doesn't have a clear position this time. They need to be nationalist in their former working class heartlandsm and internationalist in the Cities.

I could be completely wrong, of course. But that's how the UK feels like it's moving to me.

This is crap - Just because the leavers don't want to be in that farce of a democracy and large bureaucratic expense that is the EU we are "nationalist". I live in Scotland - If you want to experience Nationalism come here.

Which word would you prefer? Sovereigntist?

You wanted a get out clause for the Separatists in the north are you? I've had enough of their semantics

nichomar

Omnium said:

GIN1138 said:

Would be funny if it's a tie and Bercow gets the casting vote.

Could we see Bercow voting for Brexit?

In such circumstances I guess he'd feel obliged to do so. He'd have to consider that voting with the government was slightly more the thing to do, and similarly that there was some sort of public mandate that way. Bercow has got much of his recent time in office rather wrong, but I think he's been trying to get it right. So yes we could.

I thought the universal role of casting vote was to go with the status quo ie no change. So he should by convention vote to not leave the EU, there is plenty of logic for that approach.

nichomar

Charles said:

nichomar said:

Charles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent post.

Either all the stars fall into alignment for Boris, or it only gets about 270 votes.

We’ll shortly find out which one it is.

Anyone who votes against forfeits the moral right to whine about no deal

(Not that it will stop them, mind)

So the MPs have to vote for any old shit that is proposed? You have to vote for it even though you want guarantees on environmental and employment standards? You have to vote for it if you think it will be detrimental to you’re constituents?

No but if the threshold is that No Deal will destroy the world that’s not a high bar to beat

But that is not the case unless Johnson pulls a fast one HOC can block no deal so why vote for a glitter covered turd.

JBriskinindyref2

England have lengthened to 1.86 now - damn my shitty non-high roller status.

Beibheirli_C

Gabs2 said:

Anabobazina said:

nico67 said:

Michel Barnier comes out with huge credit .

Class personified. It’s incredibly difficult to have not made a huge gaff in 3 years , when you think of how many news conferences he’s done and the fact he had to put up with Davis and Raab .

Barnier is a class act.

Is he? This deal only made progress after he was cut out of the loop between Varadkar and Johnson. His pushes for no bilateral talks and the sequencing of talks got us to this impasse.

Compared to the rank amateurs we sent to negotiate? Barnier wins that comparison hands down...

Harris_Tweed

algarkirk said:

What looks now beyond doubt is that Boris wants a deal. And further, I still think that under no circumstances will he allow us to leave without one. On the second point he has been strategically clever. He can avoid No Deal in any event without it being his fault.

If he finds a deal which gets the EU, Spartans, Tory rebels and enough Labour MPs in the same Runaround queue to make it happen.. he'll have gone up in my estimation (even though it doesn't look like being the sort of deal I'd have wanted).

If he then goes on to win an election and seal Tory rule till 2025 - 15 years since DC entered Downing Street - you'd have to call that a result given austerity and the unmitigated clusterfuck of sorting Brexit!

bigjohnowls

Andy_JS said:

Good evening. Just seen this new YouGov poll.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1182620121300459521

GRN 6% REALLY

asjohnstone

There's only 3 end states, no deal, deal and revoke.

I suspect enough MPs will at this point take the middle ground rather than risk the alternative.

They can claim to be healing divides. It's the British way.

bigjohnowls

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

Re the Lib Dem’s @rcs1000... I am pretty confident they will return to a distant third once Brexit is done and Corbyn goes.

I think Corbyn going is the key one... If the Labour Party were to put in place an internationalist (non-antimsemitic Marxist), then that would dent them most.

But the UK is split on nationalist/internationalist lines. And that is a seam that the LDs can capitalise on.

Let me put this another way: 100 years ago the Liberals found themselves without a clear position as the UK's voting axis switched.

Now, there's a new switch to the nationalist/internationalist axis, and it's Labour who doesn't have a clear position this time. They need to be nationalist in their former working class heartlandsm and internationalist in the Cities.

I could be completely wrong, of course. But that's how the UK feels like it's moving to me.

You are completely wrong

YBarddCwsc

isam said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

Re the Lib Dem’s @rcs1000... I am pretty confident they will return to a distant third once Brexit is done and Corbyn goes.

I think Corbyn going is the key one... If the Labour Party were to put in place an internationalist (non-antimsemitic Marxist), then that would dent them most.

But the UK is split on nationalist/internationalist lines. And that is a seam that the LDs can capitalise on.

Let me put this another way: 100 years ago the Liberals found themselves without a clear position as the UK's voting axis switched.

Now, there's a new switch to the nationalist/internationalist axis, and it's Labour who doesn't have a clear position this time. They need to be nationalist in their former working class heartlandsm and internationalist in the Cities.

I could be completely wrong, of course. But that's how the UK feels like it's moving to me.

I could be wrong too obviously. I just fell there is no real passion for them, they are just what they always were, somewhere to go for a while when you're pissed off with Labour or Tory... if there were an election with No Deal a possibilty they could do well,if we leave with a deal... sub 10%

The LibDems are a hysterically anti-Brexit, middle class party for those who have no interest in anyone other than their prosperous selves.

Nick Clegg's departure to act as a shill for Facebook sums them up. I note most of LibDems on pb.com have been too ashamed to remark on the record-breakingly derisory tax paid by Facebook, in the news today.

The LibDems will always let you down. It is one thing in politics you can always rely on.

timmo

bigjohnowls said:

Andy_JS said:

Good evening. Just seen this new YouGov poll.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1182620121300459521

GRN 6% REALLY

Yes..ER are in the news

isam

YBarddCwsc said:

isam said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

Re the Lib Dem’s @rcs1000... I am pretty confident they will return to a distant third once Brexit is done and Corbyn goes.

I think Corbyn going is the key one... If the Labour Party were to put in place an internationalist (non-antimsemitic Marxist), then that would dent them most.

But the UK is split on nationalist/internationalist lines. And that is a seam that the LDs can capitalise on.

Let me put this another way: 100 years ago the Liberals found themselves without a clear position as the UK's voting axis switched.

Now, there's a new switch to the nationalist/internationalist axis, and it's Labour who doesn't have a clear position this time. They need to be nationalist in their former working class heartlandsm and internationalist in the Cities.

I could be completely wrong, of course. But that's how the UK feels like it's moving to me.

I could be wrong too obviously. I just fell there is no real passion for them, they are just what they always were, somewhere to go for a while when you're pissed off with Labour or Tory... if there were an election with No Deal a possibilty they could do well,if we leave with a deal... sub 10%

The LibDems are a hysterically anti-Brexit, middle class party for those who have no interest in anyone other than their prosperous selves.

Nick Clegg's departure to act as a shill for Facebook sums them up. I note most of LibDems on pb.com have been too ashamed to remark on the record-breakingly derisory tax paid by Facebook, in the news today.

The LibDems will always let you down. It is one thing in politics you can always rely on.

It seems most of the new recruits on here are always talking about their old party to me

Harris_Tweed

nichomar said:

Omnium said:

GIN1138 said:

Would be funny if it's a tie and Bercow gets the casting vote.

Could we see Bercow voting for Brexit?

In such circumstances I guess he'd feel obliged to do so. He'd have to consider that voting with the government was slightly more the thing to do, and similarly that there was some sort of public mandate that way. Bercow has got much of his recent time in office rather wrong, but I think he's been trying to get it right. So yes we could.

I thought the universal role of casting vote was to go with the status quo ie no change. So he should by convention vote to not leave the EU, there is plenty of logic for that approach.

If I was either side's strategist and I was relying on Bercow's casting vote, I'd be looking *very hard* for the Albert Broughton-figure to get me over the line. That one is close to call and arguable either way.

FrancisUrquhart

asjohnstone said:

There's only 3 end states, no deal, deal and revoke.

I suspect enough MPs will at this point take the middle ground rather than risk the alternative.

They can claim to be healing divides. It's the British way.

Watch them go for deal via referendum....cos you know that just what we need. More uncertainty.

Andrew

asjohnstone said:

There's only 3 end states, no deal, deal and revoke.

Endless extensions? That seems to be the HoC's preferred option.

Harris_Tweed

asjohnstone said:

There's only 3 end states, no deal, deal and revoke.

I suspect enough MPs will at this point take the middle ground rather than risk the alternative.

They can claim to be healing divides. It's the British way.

I agree. And then I look at how vehemently they trashed Deal May, and how both sides have seen their preference of Nails-Hard Brexit or EURef2 within their grasp... and I wonder what's really changed since March?

YBarddCwsc

isam said:

YBarddCwsc said:

isam said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

Re the Lib Dem’s @rcs1000... I am pretty confident they will return to a distant third once Brexit is done and Corbyn goes.

I think Corbyn going is the key one... If the Labour Party were to put in place an internationalist (non-antimsemitic Marxist), then that would dent them most.

But the UK is split on nationalist/internationalist lines. And that is a seam that the LDs can capitalise on.

Let me put this another way: 100 years ago the Liberals found themselves without a clear position as the UK's voting axis switched.

Now, there's a new switch to the nationalist/internationalist axis, and it's Labour who doesn't have a clear position this time. They need to be nationalist in their former working class heartlandsm and internationalist in the Cities.

I could be completely wrong, of course. But that's how the UK feels like it's moving to me.

I could be wrong too obviously. I just fell there is no real passion for them, they are just what they always were, somewhere to go for a while when you're pissed off with Labour or Tory... if there were an election with No Deal a possibilty they could do well,if we leave with a deal... sub 10%

The LibDems are a hysterically anti-Brexit, middle class party for those who have no interest in anyone other than their prosperous selves.

Nick Clegg's departure to act as a shill for Facebook sums them up. I note most of LibDems on pb.com have been too ashamed to remark on the record-breakingly derisory tax paid by Facebook, in the news today.

The LibDems will always let you down. It is one thing in politics you can always rely on.

It seems most of the new recruits on here are always talking about their old party to me

Even Boris knows not to talk about the ex, when you're dating someone new!

The LibDems are the Rebound Party.

SandyRentool

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm still recovering from the line 'Jo Johnson, might give his brother a sympathy shag' some three hours after I first read it.

As I was reading the header I assumed that you had written it!

Omnium

bigjohnowls said:

Andy_JS said:

Good evening. Just seen this new YouGov poll.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1182620121300459521

GRN 6% REALLY

Well obviously not.

The Green party is ludicrous, and all these extinction types are worse. Idiots to a Lesbian.

The issues they raise though are important. And they're right in that they may be the most important issues we face.

(Arsing about and blocking traffic tends to get in the way of that argument)

The obvious thing to do is to create a group within the major parties and press hard for the issues.

The less obvious thing to do is to find a random school-girl and get her to lecture the world in random-school-girl-speak.

JBriskinindyref2

Gooood Save the Queeen - oh it's kicked off

AramintaMoonbeamQC

PENALTY.

Wulfrun_Phil

The_Taxman said:

GIN1138 said:

Andy_JS said:

Good evening. Just seen this new YouGov poll.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1182620121300459521

You'd have thought they'd have kept it for one of the Sunday papers.

I took part in a YouGov that asked voting intention on the 10th October, it also asked questions on attitude to Deals/No Deal as well as Remain. So one should be coming out over the weekend unless it was party driven research for positioning purposes.

It sounds like the YouGov for the Sunday Times which usually contains those sort of extra questions. Their last poll came only two days after another YouGov.

Now that the Benn Act has removed an immediate no deal from the table, Johnson's only negotiating card with the EU is that if they refuse to move and parliament inevitably extend, he could come back after winning a GE with a majority sufficient to leave with no deal.

The scale of the Conservative lead in this weekend's polling might be quite critical to that. Even the latest YouGov was based on fieldwork which predated the news that a deal might after all be on the cards, and Johnson might expect to get a boost from that.

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1182727603544870913?s=21

FrancisUrquhart

Sterling has become world class as winning penalties.

GIN1138

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1182727603544870913?s=21

Will presumably be put forward on Monday?

FrancisUrquhart

England dodgy defence again.

tpfkar

FrancisUrquhart said:

asjohnstone said:

There's only 3 end states, no deal, deal and revoke.

I suspect enough MPs will at this point take the middle ground rather than risk the alternative.

They can claim to be healing divides. It's the British way.

Watch them go for deal via referendum....cos you know that just what we need. More uncertainty.

That surely is the best way out from here, chance of a clear result either way, we don’t leave until we’re sure there’s a majority, the vote could suck some of the poison out, and whatever the result we find a way to move on. The ‘anti-democratic’ moaners will struggle to be heard complaining about such a vote in practice while a GE will always give a confused
Mandate on Brexit whatever the result.

Omnium

GIN1138 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1182727603544870913?s=21

Will presumably be put forward on Monday?

Benn act.

TGOHF2

Who will vote against the deal ?

Hardcore jihadi remainers like the LDs, SNP, Phil Hammond, Soubry and the bad losers.

Nobody else will care to be on the wrong side of history.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1182732004254715905

stodge

YBarddCwsc said:

The LibDems are a hysterically anti-Brexit, middle class party for those who have no interest in anyone other than their prosperous selves.

Nick Clegg's departure to act as a shill for Facebook sums them up. I note most of LibDems on pb.com have been too ashamed to remark on the record-breakingly derisory tax paid by Facebook, in the news today.

The LibDems will always let you down. It is one thing in politics you can always rely on.

Why don't you tell us what you really think? Day after day, the continual tedious anti-Lib Dem whingeing and moaning.

nichomar

tpfkar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

asjohnstone said:

There's only 3 end states, no deal, deal and revoke.

I suspect enough MPs will at this point take the middle ground rather than risk the alternative.

They can claim to be healing divides. It's the British way.

Watch them go for deal via referendum....cos you know that just what we need. More uncertainty.

That surely is the best way out from here, chance of a clear result either way, we don’t leave until we’re sure there’s a majority, the vote could suck some of the poison out, and whatever the result we find a way to move on. The ‘anti-democratic’ moaners will struggle to be heard complaining about such a vote in practice while a GE will always give a confused
Mandate on Brexit whatever the result.

I’m afraid the loony leavers will think they can invalidate such a vote by boycotting it but that would be their problem.

SquareRoot

TGOHF2 said:

Who will vote against the deal ?

Hardcore jihadi remainers like the LDs, SNP, Phil Hammond, Soubry and the bad losers.

Nobody else will care to be on the wrong side of history.

The wrong side of history is for the losers in all this, getting a deal isn't winning, its just betting the house on a horse with three legs.

GIN1138

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1182732004254715905

Less than 2,000 majority Lab > Con.

Has always been Labour or Liberal since 1918!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wrexham_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

YBarddCwsc

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1182732004254715905

Very telling (cf Del Piero, Mann, Farrelly)

The Labour MPs in these Brexity seats clearly don't think they can hold on.

nichomar

stodge said:

YBarddCwsc said:

The LibDems are a hysterically anti-Brexit, middle class party for those who have no interest in anyone other than their prosperous selves.

Nick Clegg's departure to act as a shill for Facebook sums them up. I note most of LibDems on pb.com have been too ashamed to remark on the record-breakingly derisory tax paid by Facebook, in the news today.

The LibDems will always let you down. It is one thing in politics you can always rely on.

Why don't you tell us what you really think? Day after day, the continual tedious anti-Lib Dem whingeing and moaning.

It’s so predictable you know before you look who posted it who it is, their hatred is difficult to fathom apart from their fear that the LDs will rob them of bugging turn.

FrancisUrquhart

This is piss poor from england so far.

justin124

Charles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent post.

Either all the stars fall into alignment for Boris, or it only gets about 270 votes.

We’ll shortly find out which one it is.

Anyone who votes against forfeits the moral right to whine about no deal

(Not that it will stop them, mind)

Not for people who found Theresa May's Deal too Hard in Brexit terms. To now vote for an even harder Brexit would be ridiculous and hypocritical.

stodge

Evening all

We've travelled quite a way from "No Deal is worse than a bad deal" to what now seems like "Any Deal will do".

The pro-Johnson lobby can almost taste the landslide as they seek to reap the electoral benefits of Boris doing, well something, apparently. The only problem is we don't and presumably won't know what he has traded away to get the EU to move until after we've had the euphoric adulation and the metaphorical throwing of rose petals across his path.

We don't have a Deal yet and I imagine the anti-European line is already being stoked in case Boris has to do a flounce next week.

Boris may not want to die in a ditch but it's going to be a question of who he has sold down the river and the degree to which we've all been left up the creek without a paddle in order to save his worthless hide.

YBarddCwsc

stodge said:

YBarddCwsc said:

The LibDems are a hysterically anti-Brexit, middle class party for those who have no interest in anyone other than their prosperous selves.

Nick Clegg's departure to act as a shill for Facebook sums them up. I note most of LibDems on pb.com have been too ashamed to remark on the record-breakingly derisory tax paid by Facebook, in the news today.

The LibDems will always let you down. It is one thing in politics you can always rely on.

Why don't you tell us what you really think? Day after day, the continual tedious anti-Lib Dem whingeing and moaning.

I am not affiliated with any party, but I am happy to point out gross hypocrisy.

Any comment on Facebook's tax & Nick Clegg ?