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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s unhinged behaviour won’t invoke the 25th
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s unhinged behaviour won’t invoke the 25th
When Donald Trump was merely the cartoon boss on the Apprentice, he hammed up his performance with the very successful catchphrase “You’re fired” – although it turned out he really was playing himself all along.
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Polls from the last month.
Survation
Con 27% Lab 24% Lead 3%
BMG
Con 31% Lab 26% Lead 5%
ComRes
Con 33% Lab 27% Lead 6%
IpsosMori
Con 33% Lab 24% Lead 9%
YouGov
Con 35% Lab 22% Lead 13%
Opinium
Con 38% Lab 23% Lead 15%
The average lead for the Tories is 8.5% so Ispos Mori are the least out of touch with other pollsters in terms of the average, they also as close as they can be to the middle with pollsters on each side of them.
Unless we preference particular pollsters then ComRes look less out of line than YouGov both in terms of position among the pollsters and difference from the average.
ComRes is 2.5% difference.
YouGov is 4.5% difference.
Arguably if any it is YouGov more out of line with other pollsters than ComRes.
Mannequin with Kim Catrall
I'd worry about removing him from office without very good reasons in anything outside of an election. There might be valid reasons why he should go before one but it takes away a potential stitch up narrative from his supporters.
Currently GOP senators aren't really *on* the hook for an impeachment vote, but there are at least some signs of public opinion moving in that direction.
https://youtu.be/p0xdVvMC3aI
Who's on, I asked?
Howard Stern.
Errrr, I'll pass.
A lifelong dream has been fulfilled.
(only odds shorter than 10/1 shown)
Aberdeen S
SNP 2/5
Con 7/4
Beaconsfield
Con 4/7
Dominic Grieve (Ind) 5/4
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
LD 1/2
Lab 6/4
Bishop Aukland
Con 10/11
Lab EVS
Bxp 8/1
Boston and Skegness
Con 1/8
Bxp 4/1
Cambridgeshire S
Con 8/11
LD EVS
Chelsea and Fulham
Con 2/5
LD 7/2
Lab 4/1
Chingford and Woodford Green
Con 2/5
Lab 7/4
Cities of London and Westminster
Con EVS
LD EVS
Lab 6/1
Doncaster N
Lab 1/5
Con 4/1
Bxp 8/1
East Dunbartonshire
LD 1/3
SNP 2/1
Esher and Walton
Con 1/5
LD 3/1
Finchley and Golders Green
Con EVS
LD EVS
Lab 6/1
Hartlepool
Lab 4/6
Con 11/10
Islington N
Lab 1/25
LD 8/1
Kensington
Con 4/5
Lab 2/1
LD 3/1
Manchester Withington
Lab 1/8
LD 4/1
Con 1/2
LD 11/8
Portsmouth S
LD 5/4
Con 6/4
Lab 3/1
Pudsey
Con 4/6
Lab 11/10
Reading E
Con EVS
Lab EVS
LD 6/1
Richmond Park
LD 1/10
Con 5/1
St Albans
LD 1/3
Con 2/1
Uxbridge and South Ruislip
Con 1/3
Lab 3/1
Watford
Con 2/5
LD 3/1
Lab 6/1
Wimbledon
Con 4/7
LD 5/4
Aberdeen S: SNP
Beaconsfield: Con (easily)
Bermondsey and Old Southwark: Lab
Bishop Aukland: Con
Boston and Skegness: Con
Cambridgeshire S: LD
Chelsea and Fulham: Con
Chingford and Woodford Green: Con
Cities of London and Westminster: TCTC
Doncaster N: Lab
East Dunbartonshire: LD
Esher and Walton: Con
Finchley and Golders Green: Con (won't be close)
Hartlepool: Lab
Islington N: Lab
Kensington: TCTC
Manchester Withington: Lab
Lab 2/5
Con 3/1
PC 25/1
LD 50/1
Newbury: Con (won't be close)
Portsmouth S: Lab
Pudsey: Lab
Reading E: Con
Richmond Park: LD (by a country mile)
St Albans: TCTC
Uxbridge and South Ruislip: Con
Watford: Con
Wimbledon: LD
In only one seat do you go for a longer than EVS winner: Bermondsey and Old Southwark. Why?
Lib Dem operation there particularly poor?
Great Labour on the ground team?
Shadsy is a genius?
Some interesting tips there I'll have to peruse properly when a bit more awake.
I'll see how the F1 market is shortly. Bit odd writing a pre-qualifying *and* pre-race article at the same time.
I think Labour will walk it.
Shadsy's no fool. And some of these constituencies are jokes.
Hampstead. Wimbledon. Richmond Park. And a few others.
Seats with 65% Remain shares that feel that both the Conservative and Labour Parties don't care about them.
I think the LDs will manage some pretty big swings in those seats. (But there aren't many of them.)
The best thing I can advise anyone is never ever play on fruit machines, you might as well burn the money. Over time you will always lose.
What happens to these now former Labour voters will make the difference as to the result. If they all stay home and the Tory vote stays intact, Johnson wins big. If they go LD or Green or Brexit (depending on the area) AND the Tory vote also splinters because Brexit, then anything can happen in these seats.
Remember that Impossible isn't a word that exists in politics...
If being pro-EU remains a critical political identity that's very helpful for the Lib Dems.
I can hardly believe myself typing it. I wont vote Tory again barring a miraculous turnabout which will not happen.
Outside those Lab held seats a Lab vote is a wasted vote, the LDs are the challengers in the rest of England. Sure, I expect the LDs to rack up a lot of second places (not pointless, as the next parliament also may be shortlived), but there will be unexpected gains too.
I am not betting on seat numbers or constituencies yet. We have no idea either when that election will be (I expect Spring 2020), nor what our Brexit situation is. With BoZo's rehashed Irish backstop, I expect a lot of buyers remorse. Remainers will be more motivated to vote than Leavers.
If Boris agrees a deal next week with the EU and presents it to the HOC, does this negate the Benn Act. In these circumstances he has agreed a deal so the HOC votes on the deal and if it falls no deal triggers on the 31st October
Now I know this is controversial and of course those seeking to remain will dismiss it but I would be interested in posters views
There's a pro-eu poster on this site who believes that, if we revoked, then (because it had all been such a hassle) the question of leaving the EU wouldn't come up again in his lifetime. It's such an extraordinary view, I don't know if I should laugh, or laugh hysterically.
But there are even more who think the same on the Brexit side. Somehow, all those people who turned out to march for the EU (or who cheered then on from their barstool or armchair) will shrug their shoulders and let it go.
https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/1182716114641530880?s=20
You heard it here first, TBP's flagship policy will be to resuscitate the British whaling industry.
Nigel Farage the hero of liberal democracy, who'd have thought it...
LD's, Greens, Nationalists for Rejoin
Lab for EEA plus Customs Union
Con for minimal Canada Deal.
BXP No Deal.
I don't see that as nailed on for Con at all, indeed EEA+ from a minority Lab government very possible.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/07/11/why-people-voted-labour-or-conservative-2017-gener
I think you are projecting your own views onto others.
He then says if the SNP did declare independence they could then hold a referendum on any independence Treaty and Deal with the rest of the UK
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50013582
(Edit: Or, as Nichomar says, the House of Commons has to pass a motion approving No Deal a week today (and the Lords have to debate it).)
When I lived in Quebec, the issue of Quebec independence was all-consuming.
A satisfactory equilibrium was eventually reached, and the issue began to die away (not for everyone, of course, but for many).
The Bloc Quebecois was once so large it was the Official Opposition in CANADA, even though only standing in Quebec ridings. It gradually lost its dominating position in Quebec in federal elections and fell to 3 seats in 2014. (I understand there may be a modest resurgence for the BQ in the forthcoming election.)
I think a satisfactory half-way house solution will be found for the EU (perhaps even by Boris, he's duplicitous enough), and then the issue will lose most of its potency. Most of the Remainers I know personally agree we should leave (though absolutely not with a No Deal). The pb.com Remainers are by and large more hard-line.
Similarly, the dominant position of the SNP in Scotland reminds me of the BQ at its height when it won every francophone riding.
Betting PostF1: split one stake between backing Hulkenberg to not be classified at 3.3, and Ricciardo not to be classified at 3.3. The Renault pair have poor reliability, I think only Grosjean is worse this year. Weather, starting low down the grid in all likelihood, and reliability could all see the bet come good.
Tricky betting on a race when the grid is uncertain.
I accept that the likes of Farage and Rees Mogg are into it, but does anyone genuinely experience it out in the real world?
Avoiding disaster requires either a genuine political earthquake or Corbyn to Leave post before the election.
Corbyn needs either a Labour majority or a Labour plus SNP plus Plaid plus Green majority to become PM
But also bear in mind that the Remain side keep telling us that much of the opposition to Leave is because of the threat of a No Deal. If Johnson does get a deal then again that will peel off some percentage from the irreconcilables
Although I am amazed anyone can think of Johnson's record as anything but a disaster, so in a sense we haven't avoided it.
If Johnson loses the Tory majority even with the DUP he could still stay PM if he leads the largest party and the Tories and DUP (and any Brexit Party MPs) have more seats combined than Labour, the SNP, Plaid and the Greens combined as if the LDs hold the balance of power they will refuse to make Corbyn PM either.
It is thus possible LD MPs could keep Boris as PM by default
And, as I mentioned a few times before (sorry for the repetition), another key decision is whether pro-EU MPs try to tag on a referendum amendment to a deal vote.
2nd: in 12 months people will still be campaigning for what they think is best for the UK. Some will think that after Brexit, that a return to the EU will be best for the country. Others will think that the UK will always be better off outside the EU. I can see that EU membership will become less of an issue once short- to mid-term economic and social policies become more important.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/oct/11/acting-homeland-security-secretary-thanks-trump-for-opportunity-to-serve
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/oct/11/are-fox-news-and-rightwing-news-making-plans-for-a-post-trump-future
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/10/japan-pre-qualifying-and-pre-race-2019.html
You can't blame moderate ex-Labour members like myself voting Lib Dem when the Corbynistas have spent the last few years telling us to sod off.
If Labour replace Corbyn with a more moderate leader after the next general election prepared to take on Momentum they could still return to power eventually, if not and Corbynism still controls the Labour leadership hard not to see the Liberal Democrats overtaking them ultimately as the main party of the centre left, leaving Labour with the hard left
Luckily, Trump Is an Unstable Non-Genius https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/10/opinion/donald-trump.html
I very, very strongly suspect that their policy will be EFTA+CU if they get into Government (and potentially as a condition of any coalition), as a stepping stone to a medium-term aim of rejoining the EU.
Lib Dems can then use it to polish their already shiny pro-EU credentials and contrast that with Labour.