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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two videos from the two prominent Senators who are competing f

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two videos from the two prominent Senators who are competing for the WH2020 nomination

At this stage in a White House race odds of evens on a contender to win the nomination ten months hence are just too tight. So much can happen in the intervening period and it won’t be until Iowa on February 3rd next year that we start to get real voter numbers. There’s also the question as to whether Warren’s left wing approach is a liability or an asset. The former is looking like the case.

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Comments

  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572
    Anyone there?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572
    No? Oh well, first.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Third!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,761
    edited October 2019

    Third!

    Third in a two horse race? Epitaph for Yvette Cooper.

    On topic, I suppose Sanders could point out that having a heart attack proves that he at least has a heart.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    It's a long time for a frontrunner to survive the boredom of the media.

    Trump managed it because he had some key slogans, "build the wall!" which kept support loyal to him.

    Do Warren's plans on healthcare have the potential to inspire a similar level of loyalty to the candidate?
  • FPT
    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    Hillary got 48% of the vote in 2016, 8% higher than Corbyn Labour got even in 2017, Trump still won

    More Americans voted for Hillary than for the Racist-in-Chief.
    Yet more states voted for Trump and that is key in the Electoral College FPTP system
    FPTP would mean the candidate getting a plurality of the votes winning, ie Hillary Clinton.

    Also you don't need to win "more states" in order to win in the electoral college.

    Also everyone is aware that Trump won in the electoral college and is the US president

    Apart from that a very useful comment.
    No it wouldn't, what counts is winning a plurality in enough states to get you to 270 EC votes to win not in the national popular vote. Plus Churchill in 1951 won a majority under FPTP despite losing the national popular vote and Wilson won most seats in February 1974 despite losing the national popular vote.

    Generally presidential election winners win most states e.g. Bush twice, Obama twice and Trump all won a majority of US states.

    Apart from that a very useful comment
    Churchill lost the 1951 election, of course!

    Trump wasn't the only national popular vote loser to become US President:

    In 1876, Rutherford Hayes got only 47.9% of the national vote, whereas Samuel Tilden actually won 50.9% of votes, an overall majority.

    In 1888, Benjamin Harrison got only 47.8% of the national vote, whereas Grover Cleveland actually won 48.6% of the vote.

    In 2000, of course, George W Bush got only 47.9% of the national vote, whereas Al Gore actually won 48.4% of the vote.

    The fifth example was complicated by there being multiple candidates: In 1824, John Quincy Adams won only 30.9% of the national vote, whereas Andrew Jackson won 41.4% of the vote.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    Hillary got 48% of the vote in 2016, 8% higher than Corbyn Labour got even in 2017, Trump still won

    More Americans voted for Hillary than for the Racist-in-Chief.
    Yet more states voted for Trump and that is key in the Electoral College FPTP system
    FPTP would mean the candidate getting a plurality of the votes winning, ie Hillary Clinton.

    Also you don't need to win "more states" in order to win in the electoral college.

    Also everyone is aware that Trump won in the electoral college and is the US president

    Apart from that a very useful comment.
    No it wouldn't, what counts is winning a plurality in enough states to get you to 270 EC votes to win not in the national popular vote. Plus Churchill in 1951 won a majority under FPTP despite losing the national popular vote and Wilson won most seats in February 1974 despite losing the national popular vote.

    Generally presidential election winners win most states e.g. Bush twice, Obama twice and Trump all won a majority of US states.

    Apart from that a very useful comment
    Churchill lost the 1951 election, of course!

    Trump wasn't the only national popular vote loser to become US President:

    In 1876, Rutherford Hayes got only 47.9% of the national vote, whereas Samuel Tilden actually won 50.9% of votes, an overall majority.

    In 1888, Benjamin Harrison got only 47.8% of the national vote, whereas Grover Cleveland actually won 48.6% of the vote.

    In 2000, of course, George W Bush got only 47.9% of the national vote, whereas Al Gore actually won 48.4% of the vote.

    The fifth example was complicated by there being multiple candidates: In 1824, John Quincy Adams won only 30.9% of the national vote, whereas Andrew Jackson won 41.4% of the vote.
    Elections are won and lost on the rules agreed to at the start of the contest. Clinton knew what the rules were, she knew what she had to do to win, she accepts that she lost.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    Biden drained the oxygen and the money from Klobuchar / Booker / other non-left candidates. They will lose though 300/1 is good value for any of them. A left candidate will win, then Trump will run by keeping up his racial appeals to whites, of the "Pocahontas" nature, while adding more centrist platforms that weren't relevant in 2016 like, I won't abolish your health insurance.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    EPG said:

    Biden drained the oxygen and the money from Klobuchar / Booker / other non-left candidates. They will lose though 300/1 is good value for any of them. A left candidate will win, then Trump will run by keeping up his racial appeals to whites, of the "Pocahontas" nature, while adding more centrist platforms that weren't relevant in 2016 like, I won't abolish your health insurance.

    Ah, the Trump pivot to the centre.

    We were promised that in 2016 and it never happened.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited October 2019

    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    Hillary got 48% of the vote in 2016, 8% higher than Corbyn Labour got even in 2017, Trump still won

    More Americans voted for Hillary than for the Racist-in-Chief.
    Yet more states voted for Trump and that is key in the Electoral College FPTP system
    FPTP would mean the candidate getting a plurality of the votes winning, ie Hillary Clinton.

    Also you don't need to win "more states" in order to win in the electoral college.

    Also everyone is aware that Trump won in the electoral college and is the US president

    Apart from that a very useful comment.
    No it wouldn't, what counts is winning a plurality in enough states to get you to 270 EC votes to win not in the national popular vote. Plus Churchill in 1951 won a majority under FPTP despite losing the national popular vote and Wilson won most seats in February 1974 despite losing the national popular vote.

    Generally presidential election winners win most states e.g. Bush twice, Obama twice and Trump all won a majority of US states.

    Apart from that a very useful comment
    Churchill lost the 1951 election, of course!

    Trump wasn't the only national popular vote loser to become US President:

    In 1876, Rutherford Hayes got only 47.9% of the national vote, whereas Samuel Tilden actually won 50.9% of votes, an overall majority.

    In 1888, Benjamin Harrison got only 47.8% of the national vote, whereas Grover Cleveland actually won 48.6% of the vote.

    In 2000, of course, George W Bush got only 47.9% of the national vote, whereas Al Gore actually won 48.4% of the vote.

    The fifth example was complicated by there being multiple candidates: In 1824, John Quincy Adams won only 30.9% of the national vote, whereas Andrew Jackson won 41.4% of the vote.
    Churchill won the 1951 election on seats he just lost the popular vote
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996

    It's a long time for a frontrunner to survive the boredom of the media.

    Trump managed it because he had some key slogans, "build the wall!" which kept support loyal to him.

    Do Warren's plans on healthcare have the potential to inspire a similar level of loyalty to the candidate?

    And many thought Donald Trump was not the frontrunner because his plurality was small, versus many normal Republican politicians who were collectively more popular while they were in the race. Certainly I found it possible to bet with expectancy and, as it happened, profitably on Trump right up until the Trump/Cruz runoffs (primaries) and election night in November (general).

    Warren's plans on healthcare are ... ????? Ban private insurance I know, but nothing else. It's not the big expansion that Obamacare comprised; all sides have really got down to uninspiring technical elements of cost allocation and control by now.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Warren is likeable in a way that Clinton wasn't and Trump certainly isn't.

    Likeability swings votes more than policies.

    It appeals to the heart not the head.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922
    Barnesian said:

    Warren is likeable in a way that Clinton wasn't and Trump certainly isn't.

    Likeability swings votes more than policies.

    It appeals to the heart not the head.

    She’s fab in that clip. Good sense of humour too.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    Alistair said:

    EPG said:

    Biden drained the oxygen and the money from Klobuchar / Booker / other non-left candidates. They will lose though 300/1 is good value for any of them. A left candidate will win, then Trump will run by keeping up his racial appeals to whites, of the "Pocahontas" nature, while adding more centrist platforms that weren't relevant in 2016 like, I won't abolish your health insurance.

    Ah, the Trump pivot to the centre.

    We were promised that in 2016 and it never happened.
    Trump's policies are often centrist, most obviously on trade where he has given anti-trade Democrats and Midwesterners nothing to fear, and on foreign affairs where he has not been strongly aligned to any side except Israel. If the Democrats campaign on abolishing private health insurance, he will also be able to be centrist on healthcare. Of course, he has also whipped up white supremacists who killed people.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Barnesian said:

    Warren is likeable in a way that Clinton wasn't and Trump certainly isn't.

    Likeability swings votes more than policies.

    It appeals to the heart not the head.

    Charisma is key, more than both.

    Trump has charisma, Bill Clinton had charisma, George W Bush had charisma, Obama did to an extent, not sure if Warren does
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Warren is likeable in a way that Clinton wasn't and Trump certainly isn't.

    Likeability swings votes more than policies.

    It appeals to the heart not the head.

    Charisma is key, more than both.

    Trump has charisma, Bill Clinton had charisma, George W Bush had charisma, Obama did to an extent, not sure if Warren does
    Charisma is subjective! Obama had tons of charisma demonstrated by achieving 50% plus twice. Trump has dark charisma, like Adolf Hitler imo. You feel compelled to watch as you don't know what thet will come out with next!
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572
    OT

    The chances of an outsider mounting a serious challenge at this late stage depend very much on Biden dropping out, leaving those on his wing of the Democrats searching around for a new alternative rather than settle for either Warren or Sanders. That is unlikely, but not impossible, as his vulnerability is no less than that of Sanders on health grounds and there is still a window of nearly 4 months before the first primary. Maybe there's a 1 in 25 chance of a health or other event serious enough to effectively knock Biden out of the race in that window. Still a very long shot though.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    lol - the end of the last thread and benefits! Ones attitude changes when either yourself or a member of your family or someone you know is ground down by it! Work does not help people with mental health problems in my experience. It can make things worse! A stupid political mantra that the useless David Cameron used to trumpet!
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    Dodds lobs a grenade into the tunnel.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited October 2019
    Yep, predictable and the reason why i treated the optimism of a breakthrough yesterday with derision. I still think an extension is likley before the end of the month!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037
    On topic. Agreed.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Yep, predictable and the reason why i treated the optimism of a breakthrough yesterday with derision. I still think an extension is likley before the end of the month!
    A bit surprising that the DUP managed to bite its collective tongue on this for as many hours as it did. Given that he's running a minority administration anyway, does Johnson think he needs the DUP's votes for any deal? And if he throws them under one of his many buses, how many more votes on the ERG-Hoey axis are also at risk?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081
    edited October 2019
    While I agree Warren is too short though deservedly favourite, Klobuchar was a bit wooden and flat in the top clip. 480 for next POTUS not bad value, as she is still in the race.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572
    Barnesian said:

    Warren is likeable in a way that Clinton wasn't and Trump certainly isn't.

    Likeability swings votes more than policies.

    It appeals to the heart not the head.

    Yes. Whilst Trump just rants, she can appeal in this sort of way. [After you get past the ad first.]

    https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2019/10/01/elizabeth-warren-golden-retriever-dog-bailey-mh-orig.cnn
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    I wonder if Bloomberg will throw a grenade into the election and run as an independent or back Romney as one? Bloomberg makes Trump look poor and he could finance a political machine to rival the Dems or Gop many times over.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Alistair said:

    EPG said:

    Biden drained the oxygen and the money from Klobuchar / Booker / other non-left candidates. They will lose though 300/1 is good value for any of them. A left candidate will win, then Trump will run by keeping up his racial appeals to whites, of the "Pocahontas" nature, while adding more centrist platforms that weren't relevant in 2016 like, I won't abolish your health insurance.

    Ah, the Trump pivot to the centre.

    We were promised that in 2016 and it never happened.
    I’m not sure “I won’t abolish your health insurance” counts as a pivot to the centre!

    It’s more appealing to the centre - opened up by the democrats being further to the left
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Warren is likeable in a way that Clinton wasn't and Trump certainly isn't.

    Likeability swings votes more than policies.

    It appeals to the heart not the head.

    Charisma is key, more than both.

    Trump has charisma, Bill Clinton had charisma, George W Bush had charisma, Obama did to an extent, not sure if Warren does
    Charisma - "compelling attractiveness or charm that can inspire devotion in others".

    Bill Clinton did. George W Bush didn't - perhaps a sweet charm! Trump does to his followers and repulses others. I think Johnson does. Warren has the potential as well as likeability.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Polruan said:

    Yep, predictable and the reason why i treated the optimism of a breakthrough yesterday with derision. I still think an extension is likley before the end of the month!
    A bit surprising that the DUP managed to bite its collective tongue on this for as many hours as it did. Given that he's running a minority administration anyway, does Johnson think he needs the DUP's votes for any deal? And if he throws them under one of his many buses, how many more votes on the ERG-Hoey axis are also at risk?
    It is an interesting point with regard to the DUP. He has no majority with them or without them. However, he might need them in the future for instance after a GE. It is not really realistic doing a deal unless it is customs union and single market, that might get through parliament with Labour votes but i don't see it personally! Once you get into CU &SM, why would you Brexit? Might as well stay and have a vote on it. Which is what Labour propose! I know some will object but fuck them as they are saying fuck you to everyone else at the moment!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited October 2019
    I was sceptical for this very reason, the original Boris plan was as far as the DUP will go.

    So it remains the case Boris needs either the votes of about 20 Labour MPs or a Tory majority after the next general election to get a Brexit Deal through without another referendum attached
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited October 2019

    lol - the end of the last thread and benefits! Ones attitude changes when either yourself or a member of your family or someone you know is ground down by it! Work does not help people with mental health problems in my experience. It can make things worse! A stupid political mantra that the useless David Cameron used to trumpet!


    https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/blog/employment-vital-maintaining-good-mental-health
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    I wonder if Bloomberg will throw a grenade into the election and run as an independent or back Romney as one? Bloomberg makes Trump look poor and he could finance a political machine to rival the Dems or Gop many times over.

    Kasich or Hickenlooper more likely
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081

    lol - the end of the last thread and benefits! Ones attitude changes when either yourself or a member of your family or someone you know is ground down by it! Work does not help people with mental health problems in my experience. It can make things worse! A stupid political mantra that the useless David Cameron used to trumpet!

    The relationship between mental health and work is complex. Certainly unemployment worsens most measures of mental health, but toxic workplaces can also do so. It is why stress and related symptoms accounts for so much sickness absence.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    HYUFD said:

    I was sceptical for this very reason, the original Boris plan was as far as the DUP will go.

    So it remains the case Boris needs either the votes of about 20 Labour MPs or a Tory majority after the next general election to get a Brexit Deal through without another referendum attached
    He's not going to get the votes of 20 Labour MPs unless he puts level playing field on environmental and employment rights back into the PD. Even then, unlikely.

    Next Saturday is going to be interesting with the votes on all the amendments.

    My guess is the deal (if there is one) will not pass even with amendments. So a (long) extension and a general election in the Spring. A referendum before a GE is only possible if Johnson agrees to one to get his deal through. Possible but unlikely.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,753
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    lol - the end of the last thread and benefits! Ones attitude changes when either yourself or a member of your family or someone you know is ground down by it! Work does not help people with mental health problems in my experience. It can make things worse! A stupid political mantra that the useless David Cameron used to trumpet!


    https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/blog/employment-vital-maintaining-good-mental-health
    That report says 27% of working age adults in England with mental illness are working compared to 70% of the population as a whole. What's your Tory government doing to address that imbalance, or is it just down to the mentally ill to pull themselves together?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Foxy said:

    lol - the end of the last thread and benefits! Ones attitude changes when either yourself or a member of your family or someone you know is ground down by it! Work does not help people with mental health problems in my experience. It can make things worse! A stupid political mantra that the useless David Cameron used to trumpet!

    The relationship between mental health and work is complex. Certainly unemployment worsens most measures of mental health, but toxic workplaces can also do so. It is why stress and related symptoms accounts for so much sickness absence.
    Foxy - this “we are undefeatable” campaign they are running at the moment is claiming that 15m Brits have a “long term health condition”

    Do you know how they are calculating that? I’ve seen similar percentages claimed for disability before but it just always strikes me as implausibly high
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    There is a way through, I think. The deal may well pass even without DUP votes if it is made subject to a referendum. There are now quite a lot of MPs who want a resolution and who might compromise on that.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    HYUFD said:

    I was sceptical for this very reason, the original Boris plan was as far as the DUP will go.

    So it remains the case Boris needs either the votes of about 20 Labour MPs or a Tory majority after the next general election to get a Brexit Deal through without another referendum attached
    I'm not sure it's that simple. Unless he wins a GE majority off the back of a very clear manifesto position, which is something that the EU have agreed or will agree to, then the chances of keeping his party together once the reality of any specific deal/fudge emerges are really not good. A large majority might do the job; a small majority may still need a material amount of Labour support. It's still very difficult to see a realistic route to a Parliament which has a majority for a deal that's harder than the May deal, or for no deal at all.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    lol - the end of the last thread and benefits! Ones attitude changes when either yourself or a member of your family or someone you know is ground down by it! Work does not help people with mental health problems in my experience. It can make things worse! A stupid political mantra that the useless David Cameron used to trumpet!

    Factually incorrect

    https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/blog/employment-vital-maintaining-good-mental-health
    Sorry I don't agree with you. It depends on the mental health problem of course! If you have Schizophrenia for instance. Work is unlikley to help. I cannot see work being good for anxiety or depression either! How do I know? I have all three but am medicated. I used to do voluntary work and found I got nothing out of it as well, indeed it made some things worse.

    I hope your holiday is going well and would recommend Giants Causeway and Stormont (if you are in NI when it is open next week!).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Really weird to have a race weekend Saturday with nothing happening except the unofficial F1 drivers' FIFA PS4 Championship.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 926


    It is an interesting point with regard to the DUP. He has no majority with them or without them.

    Aren't there also various ERG MPs who have been making noises to the effect that if the DUP don't vote for the deal they won't either? That gives the DUP take weight beyond their own 10 votes. Johnson can lean on the ERG, of course, but he'll have a harder time doing so than if the DUP could be kept onboard.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    edited October 2019
    Trying to get any deal done in this social media age must be so much harder than it used to. All the media looking to get a newsworthy response from someone saying why something can't be done. Like parliament its easy to pick holes in things and be against everything. Encourages stasis. News is nearly always bad news and it's not that dissimilar.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I look forward to the right wing press headlines of the DUP enemy of the people!

    They need to be called out and shamed . They’re now throwing their toys out of the pram because they’ve totally screwed up.

    They should have pushed for a soft Brexit from the start .

    Now they’ve got the UUP coming after them, business calling them out and unification more likely if they’re handmaidens to a no deal.

  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    There is a way through, I think. The deal may well pass even without DUP votes if it is made subject to a referendum. There are now quite a lot of MPs who want a resolution and who might compromise on that.

    To be honest a public vote is the best way out of this on Deal vs. Remain. Which Labour seems to be endoursing at the moment. To be honest in an election i dont know whether to vote Labour or LD. Depends on polls...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    Those are impressive Warren replies - really quite touching, even allowing for an element of deliberate acting. I can see her touching some conservative evangelicals with that line of argument.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,761
    edited October 2019

    HYUFD said:

    lol - the end of the last thread and benefits! Ones attitude changes when either yourself or a member of your family or someone you know is ground down by it! Work does not help people with mental health problems in my experience. It can make things worse! A stupid political mantra that the useless David Cameron used to trumpet!


    https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/blog/employment-vital-maintaining-good-mental-health
    That report says 27% of working age adults in England with mental illness are working compared to 70% of the population as a whole. What's your Tory government doing to address that imbalance, or is it just down to the mentally ill to pull themselves together?
    Well, in fairness the PM and his chief of staff both appear to suffer from Dunning Kruger syndrome. So that could be two depending on whether it's considered a mental disorder or not.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    DUP seem to be out.

    Ignore them Johnson - push on.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,761

    DUP seem to be out.

    Sexually, politically, or intellectually?
  • Plenty of wiggle room in that Dodds statement. If you’re Boris, you want and need a few hostile noises off to show you’re going as far as you can (and maybe a bit further) while you’re negotiating.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    pm215 said:


    It is an interesting point with regard to the DUP. He has no majority with them or without them.

    Aren't there also various ERG MPs who have been making noises to the effect that if the DUP don't vote for the deal they won't either? That gives the DUP take weight beyond their own 10 votes. Johnson can lean on the ERG, of course, but he'll have a harder time doing so than if the DUP could be kept onboard.
    I have seen Mark Francois make comments about sinn fein/ira many times in the last 12 months i.e. he and ERG are with the DUP! I can see the UUP screwing the DUP about Brexit in a similar way as the DUP killed the UUP about the GFA and powersharing some time ago...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    edited October 2019
    pm215 said:


    It is an interesting point with regard to the DUP. He has no majority with them or without them.

    Aren't there also various ERG MPs who have been making noises to the effect that if the DUP don't vote for the deal they won't either? That gives the DUP take weight beyond their own 10 votes. Johnson can lean on the ERG, of course, but he'll have a harder time doing so than if the DUP could be kept onboard.
    ERG - remove whip. Not able to stand at November GE.

    Let them take their chances with Farage.

    Any who are old enough to be starting to think about gongs, House of Lords, cushy retirement posts on quangos. Tell them no chance whatsoever.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Those are impressive Warren replies - really quite touching, even allowing for an element of deliberate acting. I can see her touching some conservative evangelicals with that line of argument.

    Lol no, evangelicals are long gone and never coming back for the Dems. The polling on what white evangelicals consider moral/immoral before and after Trump became president is sickening in its hypocrisy.

    Their vote is driven by racism and as a result will never go Dem.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    lol - the end of the last thread and benefits! Ones attitude changes when either yourself or a member of your family or someone you know is ground down by it! Work does not help people with mental health problems in my experience. It can make things worse! A stupid political mantra that the useless David Cameron used to trumpet!

    Factually incorrect

    https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/blog/employment-vital-maintaining-good-mental-health
    Sorry I don't agree with you. It depends on the mental health problem of course! If you have Schizophrenia for instance. Work is unlikley to help. I cannot see work being good for anxiety or depression either! How do I know? I have all three but am medicated. I used to do voluntary work and found I got nothing out of it as well, indeed it made some things worse.

    I hope your holiday is going well and would recommend Giants Causeway and Stormont (if you are in NI when it is open next week!).
    Work is good for both anxiety and depression, schizophrenia is genetic.

    Have been to Enniskillen today, going to Giants Causeway next week
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    HYUFD said:

    lol - the end of the last thread and benefits! Ones attitude changes when either yourself or a member of your family or someone you know is ground down by it! Work does not help people with mental health problems in my experience. It can make things worse! A stupid political mantra that the useless David Cameron used to trumpet!

    Factually incorrect

    https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/blog/employment-vital-maintaining-good-mental-health
    Sorry I don't agree with you. It depends on the mental health problem of course! If you have Schizophrenia for instance. Work is unlikley to help. I cannot see work being good for anxiety or depression either! How do I know? I have all three but am medicated. I used to do voluntary work and found I got nothing out of it as well, indeed it made some things worse.

    I hope your holiday is going well and would recommend Giants Causeway and Stormont (if you are in NI when it is open next week!).
    If you are able to do some work/voluntary work, even if with some acceptable level of difficulty, then it is well worth it, imho, for the social contact and sense of purpose.

    That is a big if of course.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    lol - the end of the last thread and benefits! Ones attitude changes when either yourself or a member of your family or someone you know is ground down by it! Work does not help people with mental health problems in my experience. It can make things worse! A stupid political mantra that the useless David Cameron used to trumpet!

    Factually incorrect

    https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/blog/employment-vital-maintaining-good-mental-health
    Sorry I don't agree with you. It depends on the mental health problem of course! If you have Schizophrenia for instance. Work is unlikley to help. I cannot see work being good for anxiety or depression either! How do I know? I have all three but am medicated. I used to do voluntary work and found I got nothing out of it as well, indeed it made some things worse.

    I hope your holiday is going well and would recommend Giants Causeway and Stormont (if you are in NI when it is open next week!).
    Work is good for both anxiety and depression, schizophrenia is genetic.

    Have been to Enniskillen today, going to Giants Causeway next week
    "schizophrenia is genetic"

    Really? Entirely?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Plenty of wiggle room in that Dodds statement. If you’re Boris, you want and need a few hostile noises off to show you’re going as far as you can (and maybe a bit further) while you’re negotiating.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1183052785266446336
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    I was sceptical for this very reason, the original Boris plan was as far as the DUP will go.

    So it remains the case Boris needs either the votes of about 20 Labour MPs or a Tory majority after the next general election to get a Brexit Deal through without another referendum attached
    He's not going to get the votes of 20 Labour MPs unless he puts level playing field on environmental and employment rights back into the PD. Even then, unlikely.

    Next Saturday is going to be interesting with the votes on all the amendments.

    My guess is the deal (if there is one) will not pass even with amendments. So a (long) extension and a general election in the Spring. A referendum before a GE is only possible if Johnson agrees to one to get his deal through. Possible but unlikely.
    And if a Tory majority results then a Brexit Deal passes the Commons
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    I was sceptical for this very reason, the original Boris plan was as far as the DUP will go.

    So it remains the case Boris needs either the votes of about 20 Labour MPs or a Tory majority after the next general election to get a Brexit Deal through without another referendum attached
    I'm not sure it's that simple. Unless he wins a GE majority off the back of a very clear manifesto position, which is something that the EU have agreed or will agree to, then the chances of keeping his party together once the reality of any specific deal/fudge emerges are really not good. A large majority might do the job; a small majority may still need a material amount of Labour support. It's still very difficult to see a realistic route to a Parliament which has a majority for a deal that's harder than the May deal, or for no deal at all.
    Boris can win a majority on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal platform, then pass something similar to a NI only backstop Deal
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    Alistair said:

    EPG said:

    Biden drained the oxygen and the money from Klobuchar / Booker / other non-left candidates. They will lose though 300/1 is good value for any of them. A left candidate will win, then Trump will run by keeping up his racial appeals to whites, of the "Pocahontas" nature, while adding more centrist platforms that weren't relevant in 2016 like, I won't abolish your health insurance.

    Ah, the Trump pivot to the centre.

    We were promised that in 2016 and it never happened.
    He’d gave to pivot away from insanity and criminality, too. Those are harder tricks to pull off....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    Elizabeth Warren just seems so normal. Admittedly, when the comparison is Trump normal is not a hard target to hit but she does it with ease.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Charming, just got signed out.

    Anyway, in case you missed it earlier, here's my pre-qualifying *and* pre-race ramble:
    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/10/japan-pre-qualifying-and-pre-race-2019.html


    Also, got another book coming out 22 October. It's a comedy, which might be some nice relief from the news:
    https://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/2019/10/sir-edric-and-corpse-lord-out-22-october.html
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    Tried to watch the Klobuchat, and gave up half way through.
    Does Maher ever shut up ?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    lol - the end of the last thread and benefits! Ones attitude changes when either yourself or a member of your family or someone you know is ground down by it! Work does not help people with mental health problems in my experience. It can make things worse! A stupid political mantra that the useless David Cameron used to trumpet!

    Factually incorrect

    https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/blog/employment-vital-maintaining-good-mental-health
    Sorry I don't agree with you. It depends on the mental health problem of course! If you have Schizophrenia for instance. Work is unlikley to help. I cannot see work being good for anxiety or depression either! How do I know? I have all three but am medicated. I used to do voluntary work and found I got nothing out of it as well, indeed it made some things worse.

    I hope your holiday is going well and would recommend Giants Causeway and Stormont (if you are in NI when it is open next week!).
    Work is good for both anxiety and depression, schizophrenia is genetic.

    Have been to Enniskillen today, going to Giants Causeway next week
    "schizophrenia is genetic"

    Really? Entirely?
    HYUFD is talking ill informed nonsense. In many cases work is the cause of mental anxiety and he pontificates as an expert on far too many subjects to be credible

    We have a very difficult mental health issue with a member of our family who was in work but external issues including trauma creating a PTSD related condition and he is not in employment at present.

    Mental health is a complex and difficult subject not helped by an utter lack of understanding of the issues
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Plenty of wiggle room in that Dodds statement. If you’re Boris, you want and need a few hostile noises off to show you’re going as far as you can (and maybe a bit further) while you’re negotiating.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1183052785266446336
    OK Dodsy. £2 billion. Final offer.....
  • HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    I was sceptical for this very reason, the original Boris plan was as far as the DUP will go.

    So it remains the case Boris needs either the votes of about 20 Labour MPs or a Tory majority after the next general election to get a Brexit Deal through without another referendum attached
    I'm not sure it's that simple. Unless he wins a GE majority off the back of a very clear manifesto position, which is something that the EU have agreed or will agree to, then the chances of keeping his party together once the reality of any specific deal/fudge emerges are really not good. A large majority might do the job; a small majority may still need a material amount of Labour support. It's still very difficult to see a realistic route to a Parliament which has a majority for a deal that's harder than the May deal, or for no deal at all.
    Boris can win a majority on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal platform, then pass something similar to a NI only backstop Deal
    He can't he if he cannot get an election
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    lol - the end of the last thread and benefits! Ones attitude changes when either yourself or a member of your family or someone you know is ground down by it! Work does not help people with mental health problems in my experience. It can make things worse! A stupid political mantra that the useless David Cameron used to trumpet!

    Factually incorrect

    https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/blog/employment-vital-maintaining-good-mental-health
    Sorry I don't agree with you. It depends on the mental health problem of course! If you have Schizophrenia for instance. Work is unlikley to help. I cannot see work being good for anxiety or depression either! How do I know? I have all three but am medicated. I used to do voluntary work and found I got nothing out of it as well, indeed it made some things worse.

    I hope your holiday is going well and would recommend Giants Causeway and Stormont (if you are in NI when it is open next week!).
    Work is good for both anxiety and depression, schizophrenia is genetic.

    Have been to Enniskillen today, going to Giants Causeway next week
    "schizophrenia is genetic"

    Really? Entirely?
    HYUFD is talking ill informed nonsense. In many cases work is the cause of mental anxiety and he pontificates as an expert on far too many subjects to be credible

    We have a very difficult mental health issue with a member of our family who was in work but external issues including trauma creating a PTSD related condition and he is not in employment at present.

    Mental health is a complex and difficult subject not helped by an utter lack of understanding of the issues
    Unemployment is a big cause of mental health issues, those in employment have more self confidence, more routine and generally better mental health and I will not apologise for saying so
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    I was sceptical for this very reason, the original Boris plan was as far as the DUP will go.

    So it remains the case Boris needs either the votes of about 20 Labour MPs or a Tory majority after the next general election to get a Brexit Deal through without another referendum attached
    I'm not sure it's that simple. Unless he wins a GE majority off the back of a very clear manifesto position, which is something that the EU have agreed or will agree to, then the chances of keeping his party together once the reality of any specific deal/fudge emerges are really not good. A large majority might do the job; a small majority may still need a material amount of Labour support. It's still very difficult to see a realistic route to a Parliament which has a majority for a deal that's harder than the May deal, or for no deal at all.
    Boris can win a majority on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal platform, then pass something similar to a NI only backstop Deal
    He can't he if he cannot get an election
    There will have to be an election eventually
  • Roger said:

    Plenty of wiggle room in that Dodds statement. If you’re Boris, you want and need a few hostile noises off to show you’re going as far as you can (and maybe a bit further) while you’re negotiating.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1183052785266446336
    OK Dodsy. £2 billion. Final offer.....
    It is all noise.

    Let us see how it develops next week starting with Boris's manifesto on monday, sorry Queens speech
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037
    Good point on the Klobuchar interview. Tailoring it a bit, one thing that drives Trump isn’t Trump - and won’t inhibit him no matter how bad or mad he gets - it’s that obsessive identity politics is utterly repellent to so many people not already on the Democratic side of the ticket that they’ll vote for anyone who fights it no matter what their methods.

    A very smart Democratic contender would lead their side to hugely tone it down, and moderate the language and the rhetoric, and only then would I expect a surge of soft Republican votes to come their way.

    But, I doubt that’ll ever happen.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    lol - the end of the last thread and benefits! Ones attitude changes when either yourself or a member of your family or someone you know is ground down by it! Work does not help people with mental health problems in my experience. It can make things worse! A stupid political mantra that the useless David Cameron used to trumpet!

    Factually incorrect

    https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/blog/employment-vital-maintaining-good-mental-health
    Sorry I don't agree with you. It depends on the mental health problem of course! If you have Schizophrenia for instance. Work is unlikley to help. I cannot see work being good for anxiety or depression either! How do I know? I have all three but am medicated. I used to do voluntary work and found I got nothing out of it as well, indeed it made some things worse.

    I hope your holiday is going well and would recommend Giants Causeway and Stormont (if you are in NI when it is open next week!).
    Work is good for both anxiety and depression, schizophrenia is genetic.

    Have been to Enniskillen today, going to Giants Causeway next week
    "schizophrenia is genetic"

    Really? Entirely?
    HYUFD is talking ill informed nonsense. In many cases work is the cause of mental anxiety and he pontificates as an expert on far too many subjects to be credible

    We have a very difficult mental health issue with a member of our family who was in work but external issues including trauma creating a PTSD related condition and he is not in employment at present.

    Mental health is a complex and difficult subject not helped by an utter lack of understanding of the issues
    Unemployment is a big cause of mental health issues, those in employment have more self confidence, more routine and generally better mental health and I will not apologise for saying so
    You haven't a clue
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    On topic.

    I think there are two dynamics in this race that are important.

    Firstly, this will likely be a battle between a moderate and a left winger. And it will very rapidly consolidate around a single moderate and a single left winger. Bernie's heart attack, and the proliferation of moderates has made it relatively easy for Warren to step into pole position. If the votes for Booker, O'Rourke and the like find a single centrist home, then the race will look a lot tighter.

    Secondly, IOWA MATTERS. That defines the candidates that are in with a shout. Kloubachar is from a neighbouring state, which helps with organisation. And in one poll last month she was in fifth, just a point behind Sanders. She is the best bet. But Buttigieg has the best chance of overtaking Biden.

    He has the on the ground organisation. He's massively outraising Biden. And the Biden-Buttigieg spread in Iowa keeps on narrowing. I would reckon there's a one-in-four chance Buttigieg overtaking Biden in Iowa, and a one-in-fifteen chance he passes Warren.

    Still, the easy money is simply selling some of those with no chance to the Nomination: Clinton and Yang being the easiest there.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    I was sceptical for this very reason, the original Boris plan was as far as the DUP will go.

    So it remains the case Boris needs either the votes of about 20 Labour MPs or a Tory majority after the next general election to get a Brexit Deal through without another referendum attached
    I'm not sure it's that simple. Unless he wins a GE majority off the back of a very clear manifesto position, which is something that the EU have agreed or will agree to, then the chances of keeping his party together once the reality of any specific deal/fudge emerges are really not good. A large majority might do the job; a small majority may still need a material amount of Labour support. It's still very difficult to see a realistic route to a Parliament which has a majority for a deal that's harder than the May deal, or for no deal at all.
    Boris can win a majority on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal platform, then pass something similar to a NI only backstop Deal
    He can't he if he cannot get an election
    There will have to be an election eventually
    In 2022 yes
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Good point on the Klobuchar interview. Tailoring it a bit, one thing that drives Trump isn’t Trump - and won’t inhibit him no matter how bad or mad he gets - it’s that obsessive identity politics is utterly repellent to so many people not already on the Democratic side of the ticket that they’ll vote for anyone who fights it no matter what their methods.

    A very smart Democratic contender would lead their side to hugely tone it down, and moderate the language and the rhetoric, and only then would I expect a surge of soft Republican votes to come their way.

    But, I doubt that’ll ever happen.

    "Obsessive identify politics". The entire southern evangelical movement is based around segregation and racism. It is the ur-identity politics.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    I was sceptical for this very reason, the original Boris plan was as far as the DUP will go.

    So it remains the case Boris needs either the votes of about 20 Labour MPs or a Tory majority after the next general election to get a Brexit Deal through without another referendum attached
    He's not going to get the votes of 20 Labour MPs unless he puts level playing field on environmental and employment rights back into the PD. Even then, unlikely.

    Next Saturday is going to be interesting with the votes on all the amendments.

    My guess is the deal (if there is one) will not pass even with amendments. So a (long) extension and a general election in the Spring. A referendum before a GE is only possible if Johnson agrees to one to get his deal through. Possible but unlikely.
    And if a Tory majority results then a Brexit Deal passes the Commons
    Yes - with the DUP under a bus. SM + CU for NI. The fight will then move on to what sort of FTA. This will depend on how large a majority and how split Tory MPs are on the type of FTA.

    It is unlikely to be resolved within the five years before the next election when the Tories are likely to lose their majority and then it's all up in the air again. Happy days.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    lol - the end of the last thread and benefits! Ones attitude changes when either yourself or a member of your family or someone you know is ground down by it! Work does not help people with mental health problems in my experience. It can make things worse! A stupid political mantra that the useless David Cameron used to trumpet!

    Factually incorrect

    https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/blog/employment-vital-maintaining-good-mental-health
    Sorry I don't agree with you. It depends on the mental health problem of course! If you have Schizophrenia for instance. Work is unlikley to help. I cannot see work being good for anxiety or depression either! How do I know? I have all three but am medicated. I used to do voluntary work and found I got nothing out of it as well, indeed it made some things worse.

    I hope your holiday is going well and would recommend Giants Causeway and Stormont (if you are in NI when it is open next week!).
    Work is good for both anxiety and depression, schizophrenia is genetic.

    Have been to Enniskillen today, going to Giants Causeway next week
    "schizophrenia is genetic"

    Really? Entirely?
    HYUFD is talking ill informed nonsense. In many cases work is the cause of mental anxiety and he pontificates as an expert on far too many subjects to be credible

    We have a very difficult mental health issue with a member of our family who was in work but external issues including trauma creating a PTSD related condition and he is not in employment at present.

    Mental health is a complex and difficult subject not helped by an utter lack of understanding of the issues
    Unemployment is a big cause of mental health issues, those in employment have more self confidence, more routine and generally better mental health and I will not apologise for saying so
    You haven't a clue
    Indeed he hasn't.

    I have been talking to three people in the last two weeks with mental health issues, all are being pressured by DWP to seek work their doctors say thay are not fit for, all have mental health issues following brain injuries or essential operations.

    Sure, work can improve mental health for some but if employers won't employ you, being pressured to seek work is not helpful.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    I was sceptical for this very reason, the original Boris plan was as far as the DUP will go.

    So it remains the case Boris needs either the votes of about 20 Labour MPs or a Tory majority after the next general election to get a Brexit Deal through without another referendum attached
    I'm not sure it's that simple. Unless he wins a GE majority off the back of a very clear manifesto position, which is something that the EU have agreed or will agree to, then the chances of keeping his party together once the reality of any specific deal/fudge emerges are really not good. A large majority might do the job; a small majority may still need a material amount of Labour support. It's still very difficult to see a realistic route to a Parliament which has a majority for a deal that's harder than the May deal, or for no deal at all.
    Boris can win a majority on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal platform, then pass something similar to a NI only backstop Deal
    You're making the same mistake as the leave campaign: claiming that a mandate for a fudged range of outcomes authorises one of those outcomes even though it's only supported by a minority.

    In the case of a referendum, if you kind of squint a bit you can maybe justify that approach. In the case of a Parliamentary majority it doesn't work. You win the majority on Deal or No Deal, and then the fundamentalists still won't fall into line and vote for a deal that's too closely aligned with the EU; the moderates won't back no deal. And because the manifesto was designed to attract supporters of the two incompatible positions, there's no way to whip the resulting MPs into just one position or the other.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584

    Good point on the Klobuchar interview. Tailoring it a bit, one thing that drives Trump isn’t Trump - and won’t inhibit him no matter how bad or mad he gets - it’s that obsessive identity politics is utterly repellent to so many people not already on the Democratic side of the ticket that they’ll vote for anyone who fights it no matter what their methods.

    A very smart Democratic contender would lead their side to hugely tone it down, and moderate the language and the rhetoric, and only then would I expect a surge of soft Republican votes to come their way.

    But, I doubt that’ll ever happen.

    Which argument ignores variability in turnout.
    It’s equally likely a centrist candidate does a Hillary in a few key states.

    Klobuchar I’m sure would make a very sensible president - but let’s face it, she simply isn’t greatly endowed with charisma.

    I’m also not greatly convinced by the idea of a ‘surge of soft Republican votes’ just waiting to switch sides.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited October 2019
    And to think I was shocked to find people drank Prosecco for Christmas lunch....

    UK's best-selling albums (2000-2019)
    1) Adele - 21
    2) Amy Winehouse - Back To Black
    3) Adele - 25
    4) Ed Sheeran - x
    5) Ed Sheeran - ÷
    6) James Blunt - Back To Bedlam
    7) Leona Lewis - Spirit
    8) Michael Buble - Crazy Love
    9) Dido - No Angel
    10) David Gray - White Ladder

    Ed Sheeran appears in the top five twice too, while other artists in the top 20 include Coldplay, Kings of Leon, Lady Gaga and Scissor Sisters.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-50013491

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    edited October 2019

    Good point on the Klobuchar interview. Tailoring it a bit, one thing that drives Trump isn’t Trump - and won’t inhibit him no matter how bad or mad he gets - it’s that obsessive identity politics is utterly repellent to so many people not already on the Democratic side of the ticket that they’ll vote for anyone who fights it no matter what their methods.

    A very smart Democratic contender would lead their side to hugely tone it down, and moderate the language and the rhetoric, and only then would I expect a surge of soft Republican votes to come their way.

    But, I doubt that’ll ever happen.

    Trump’s entire base is driven by “obsessive identity politics”
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    lol - the end of the last thread and benefits! Ones attitude changes when either yourself or a member of your family or someone you know is ground down by it! Work does not help people with mental health problems in my experience. It can make things worse! A stupid political mantra that the useless David Cameron used to trumpet!

    Factually incorrect

    https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/blog/employment-vital-maintaining-good-mental-health
    Sorry I don't agree with you. It depends on the mental health problem of course! If you have Schizophrenia for instance. Work is unlikley to help. I cannot see work being good for anxiety or depression either! How do I know? I have all three but am medicated. I used to do voluntary work and found I got nothing out of it as well, indeed it made some things worse.

    I hope your holiday is going well and would recommend Giants Causeway and Stormont (if you are in NI when it is open next week!).
    Work is good for both anxiety and depression, schizophrenia is genetic.

    Have been to Enniskillen today, going to Giants Causeway next week
    "schizophrenia is genetic"

    Really? Entirely?
    HYUFD is talking ill informed nonsense. In many cases work is the cause of mental anxiety and he pontificates as an expert on far too many subjects to be credible

    We have a very difficult mental health issue with a member of our family who was in work but external issues including trauma creating a PTSD related condition and he is not in employment at present.

    Mental health is a complex and difficult subject not helped by an utter lack of understanding of the issues
    Unemployment is a big cause of mental health issues, those in employment have more self confidence, more routine and generally better mental health and I will not apologise for saying so
    You haven't a clue
    Indeed he hasn't.

    I have been talking to three people in the last two weeks with mental health issues, all are being pressured by DWP to seek work their doctors say thay are not fit for, all have mental health issues following brain injuries or essential operations.

    Sure, work can improve mental health for some but if employers won't employ you, being pressured to seek work is not helpful.
    HYUFD ought to release a cover version of Johnny Cash... “I talk the line”.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037
    Nigelb said:

    Good point on the Klobuchar interview. Tailoring it a bit, one thing that drives Trump isn’t Trump - and won’t inhibit him no matter how bad or mad he gets - it’s that obsessive identity politics is utterly repellent to so many people not already on the Democratic side of the ticket that they’ll vote for anyone who fights it no matter what their methods.

    A very smart Democratic contender would lead their side to hugely tone it down, and moderate the language and the rhetoric, and only then would I expect a surge of soft Republican votes to come their way.

    But, I doubt that’ll ever happen.

    Which argument ignores variability in turnout.
    It’s equally likely a centrist candidate does a Hillary in a few key states.

    Klobuchar I’m sure would make a very sensible president - but let’s face it, she simply isn’t greatly endowed with charisma.

    I’m also not greatly convinced by the idea of a ‘surge of soft Republican votes’ just waiting to switch sides.
    A centrist candidate would still get New York and California. It’s the swing states I’d be interested in.

    Besides which my point was wider than just the narrower tactical one: if a Democratic wants to make serious inroads into the Republican voting coalition nationwide then that’s what they need to do.

    Otherwise there’ll be two large sticky opposing (and mutually hating) blocs around for a very long time, with only very modest swing between them determining who wins at election time.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996

    Good point on the Klobuchar interview. Tailoring it a bit, one thing that drives Trump isn’t Trump - and won’t inhibit him no matter how bad or mad he gets - it’s that obsessive identity politics is utterly repellent to so many people not already on the Democratic side of the ticket that they’ll vote for anyone who fights it no matter what their methods.

    A very smart Democratic contender would lead their side to hugely tone it down, and moderate the language and the rhetoric, and only then would I expect a surge of soft Republican votes to come their way.

    But, I doubt that’ll ever happen.

    I don't know if there is evidence for this claim - and certainly not that it loses them votes on net. Otherwise, more politicians would win hugely by maintaining Trump-like rhetoric, yet very few do, probablybecause there is no evidence it could command a popular-vote majority.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037
    Alistair said:

    Good point on the Klobuchar interview. Tailoring it a bit, one thing that drives Trump isn’t Trump - and won’t inhibit him no matter how bad or mad he gets - it’s that obsessive identity politics is utterly repellent to so many people not already on the Democratic side of the ticket that they’ll vote for anyone who fights it no matter what their methods.

    A very smart Democratic contender would lead their side to hugely tone it down, and moderate the language and the rhetoric, and only then would I expect a surge of soft Republican votes to come their way.

    But, I doubt that’ll ever happen.

    "Obsessive identify politics". The entire southern evangelical movement is based around segregation and racism. It is the ur-identity politics.
    Both extreme sides fuel the other, and alienate those in the middle.

    A smart and brave leader would realise this.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,761

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    lol - the end of the last thread and benefits! Ones attitude changes when either yourself or a member of your family or someone you know is ground down by it! Work does not help people with mental health problems in my experience. It can make things worse! A stupid political mantra that the useless David Cameron used to trumpet!

    Factually incorrect

    https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/blog/employment-vital-maintaining-good-mental-health
    Sorry I don't agree with you. It depends on the mental health problem of course! If you have Schizophrenia for instance. Work is unlikley to help. I cannot see work being good for anxiety or depression either! How do I know? I have all three but am medicated. I used to do voluntary work and found I got nothing out of it as well, indeed it made some things worse.

    I hope your holiday is going well and would recommend Giants Causeway and Stormont (if you are in NI when it is open next week!).
    Work is good for both anxiety and depression, schizophrenia is genetic.

    Have been to Enniskillen today, going to Giants Causeway next week
    "schizophrenia is genetic"

    Really? Entirely?
    HYUFD is talking ill informed nonsense.
    And that differs from normal how, exactly?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    lol - the end of the last thread and benefits! Ones attitude changes when either yourself or a member of your family or someone you know is ground down by it! Work does not help people with mental health problems in my experience. It can make things worse! A stupid political mantra that the useless David Cameron used to trumpet!

    Factually incorrect

    https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/blog/employment-vital-maintaining-good-mental-health
    Sorry I don't agree with you. It depends on the mental health problem of course! If you have Schizophrenia for instance. Work is unlikley to help. I cannot see work being good for anxiety or depression either! How do I know? I have all three but am medicated. I used to do voluntary work and found I got nothing out of it as well, indeed it made some things worse.

    I hope your holiday is going well and would recommend Giants Causeway and Stormont (if you are in NI when it is open next week!).
    Work is good for both anxiety and depression, schizophrenia is genetic.

    Have been to Enniskillen today, going to Giants Causeway next week
    Excellent! GC is worth a look! Nature is great! Even in October it is probably busy. There is an interesting castle or ruins near by that is worth a look as well! I was on public transport and so missed it. Hope you enjoy!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    There is absolutely no question that many people’s mental health is helped by the structure, stability and routine of work. There’s absolutely no question that those who are out of work are more prone to suffering depression and suicidal thoughts which can be aggravated by a lack of structure in their days and disruption to their biorhythms. There’s absolutely no question that bullying someone who is unwell into taking on work they are not fit for is dangerous and inappropriate.

    Beyond that I think that it’s impossible to go. We are all different and respond differently to stimuli and it’s absence.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    No Democratic party in history was more PC/"woke" than the Pelosi House caucus elected in 2018. Whether you like them or not, they commanded a big majority, so I can see how any candidate from the Democrat side has a chance of winning and will bet accordingly.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    DavidL said:

    There is absolutely no question that many people’s mental health is helped by the structure, stability and routine of work. There’s absolutely no question that those who are out of work are more prone to suffering depression and suicidal thoughts which can be aggravated by a lack of structure in their days and disruption to their biorhythms. There’s absolutely no question that bullying someone who is unwell into taking on work they are not fit for is dangerous and inappropriate.

    Beyond that I think that it’s impossible to go. We are all different and respond differently to stimuli and it’s absence.

    Sounds like a good argument against Universal Income.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    Andy_JS said:

    DavidL said:

    There is absolutely no question that many people’s mental health is helped by the structure, stability and routine of work. There’s absolutely no question that those who are out of work are more prone to suffering depression and suicidal thoughts which can be aggravated by a lack of structure in their days and disruption to their biorhythms. There’s absolutely no question that bullying someone who is unwell into taking on work they are not fit for is dangerous and inappropriate.

    Beyond that I think that it’s impossible to go. We are all different and respond differently to stimuli and it’s absence.

    Sounds like a good argument against Universal Income.
    The experiments in Nordic countries found that universal incomes had very little impact on the propensity to work. The problem with universal income is affordability.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    lol - the end of the last thread and benefits! Ones attitude changes when either yourself or a member of your family or someone you know is ground down by it! Work does not help people with mental health problems in my experience. It can make things worse! A stupid political mantra that the useless David Cameron used to trumpet!

    Factually incorrect

    https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/blog/employment-vital-maintaining-good-mental-health
    Sorry I don't agree with you. It depends on the mental health problem of course! If you have Schizophrenia for instance. Work is unlikley to help. I cannot see work being good for anxiety or depression either! How do I know? I have all three but am medicated. I used to do voluntary work and found I got nothing out of it as well, indeed it made some things worse.

    I hope your holiday is going well and would recommend Giants Causeway and Stormont (if you are in NI when it is open next week!).
    Work is good for both anxiety and depression, schizophrenia is genetic.

    Have been to Enniskillen today, going to Giants Causeway next week
    "schizophrenia is genetic"

    Really? Entirely?
    HYUFD is talking ill informed nonsense. In many cases work is the cause of mental anxiety and he pontificates as an expert on far too many subjects to be credible

    We have a very difficult mental health issue with a member of our family who was in work but external issues including trauma creating a PTSD related condition and he is not in employment at present.

    Mental health is a complex and difficult subject not helped by an utter lack of understanding of the issues
    Unemployment is a big cause of mental health issues, those in employment have more self confidence, more routine and generally better mental health and I will not apologise for saying so
    And there's no doubt about the direction of causality there, is there? None whatsoever. You really are a twit.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited October 2019
    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    DavidL said:

    There is absolutely no question that many people’s mental health is helped by the structure, stability and routine of work. There’s absolutely no question that those who are out of work are more prone to suffering depression and suicidal thoughts which can be aggravated by a lack of structure in their days and disruption to their biorhythms. There’s absolutely no question that bullying someone who is unwell into taking on work they are not fit for is dangerous and inappropriate.

    Beyond that I think that it’s impossible to go. We are all different and respond differently to stimuli and it’s absence.

    Sounds like a good argument against Universal Income.
    The experiments in Nordic countries found that universal incomes had very little impact on the propensity to work. The problem with universal income is affordability.
    That assumes people in other countries would respond to it the same way that people in Nordic countries do. I don't necessarily think they would do. I think it's possible there are countries where people would decide not to work if they didn't have to, even if that wouldn't happen in the Nordic countries.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    DavidL said:
    "There is absolutely no question that many people’s mental health is helped by the structure, stability and routine of work. There’s absolutely no question that those who are out of work are more prone to suffering depression and suicidal thoughts which can be aggravated by a lack of structure in their days and disruption to their biorhythms."

    I'm trying not to get too angry at the ignorance in this comment.

    For many people mental ill health is exacerbated by work environments. This includes, but is not limited to, those suffering from severe PTSD.

    If you don't know what you are talking about, which you clearly don't, please belt up.

    Written by someone at the sharp end ...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    DavidL said:
    "There is absolutely no question that many people’s mental health is helped by the structure, stability and routine of work. There’s absolutely no question that those who are out of work are more prone to suffering depression and suicidal thoughts which can be aggravated by a lack of structure in their days and disruption to their biorhythms."

    I'm trying not to get too angry at the ignorance in this comment.

    For many people mental ill health is exacerbated by work environments. This includes, but is not limited to, those suffering from severe PTSD.

    If you don't know what you are talking about, which you clearly don't, please belt up.

    Written by someone at the sharp end ...

    There's no point in getting angry at someone else's opinion.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    Andy_JS said:

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    DavidL said:

    There is absolutely no question that many people’s mental health is helped by the structure, stability and routine of work. There’s absolutely no question that those who are out of work are more prone to suffering depression and suicidal thoughts which can be aggravated by a lack of structure in their days and disruption to their biorhythms. There’s absolutely no question that bullying someone who is unwell into taking on work they are not fit for is dangerous and inappropriate.

    Beyond that I think that it’s impossible to go. We are all different and respond differently to stimuli and it’s absence.

    Sounds like a good argument against Universal Income.
    The experiments in Nordic countries found that universal incomes had very little impact on the propensity to work. The problem with universal income is affordability.
    That assumes people in other countries would respond to it the same way that people in Nordic countries do. I don't necessarily think they would do. I think it's possible there are countries where people would decide not to work if they didn't have to, even if that wouldn't happen in the Nordic countries.
    Why would Nordic people be different? I think humans like to feel useful and needed. Work is one of the easier ways of achieving that. If our pension plan of winning the lottery finally comes off I would still want to work. Maybe not as hard or as often but I would.
This discussion has been closed.